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Arctic sea ice bottoms out at second lowest on record; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:38 PM GMT on September 19, 2008

Our lull in Atlantic hurricane activity continues, and there are no signs anything will develop over the next two days. Heavy thunderstorm activity has diminished over the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and any development of this system (93L) will be slow to occur. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15-20 knots, and is forecast to remain 15-20 knots for the next five days. The NHC is giving 93L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. None of the computer models develop 93L. Still, we need to keep a careful eye on this system.

The more likely place for development of the next tropical storm is off the coast of Africa. A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity is emerging from the coast today, and the GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots. Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about seven days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

Arctic sea ice bottoms out at second lowest extent on record
The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic has reached its annual minimum, and is now beginning to re-freeze, according to data released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center this week. This year's minimum came on September 12, and came close to, but did not exceed, last year's record minimum set on September 16, 2007. For the second straight year, the fabled Northwest Passage explored by Roald Amundsen in 1905 opened. Explorers have been attempting to sail the Northwest Passage since 1497, and 2007 and 2008 are the only known years the passage has been ice-free. In addition, 2008 saw the simultaneous opening of the Northeast Passage along the coast of Russia. This means that for the first time in recorded history, the Arctic ice cap was an island, and one could completely circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in ice-free waters.


Figure 1. Daily Arctic sea ice extent for September 12, 2008. The date of this year's minimum (white) is overlaid on September 16, 2007--last year's minimum extent (dark gray). Light gray shading indicates the region where ice occurred in both 2007 and 2008. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

While it is good news that Arctic sea ice did not set a new record low, the fact that this year's decline almost matched last year's startling sea ice loss underscores the fact that the Arctic sea ice is in serious trouble. Skies were cloudier and surface air temperatures were considerably cooler (Figure 2) over the Arctic this year compared to last year, yet sea ice loss almost matched last year's record. A repeat of last year's above normal warmth and sunshine in a future summer would readily break 2007's record.


Figure 2. Difference in surface temperature (°C) between the summer of 2008 and the summer of 2007. Blues and purples indicate areas where is was cooler this summer. The biggest change is seen over the Bering Sea between Alaska and Russia, where exceptionally sunny weather with southerly winds in 2007 caused record-breaking warmth. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

The implications
The unprecedented melting of Arctic seas ice the past two summers will have little immediate impact on the climate or on sea level rise. Since the ice is already floating in the ocean, melting it does not change sea level much--just like when ice melting in a glass of water will not change the level of liquid in the glass. In the case of sea ice, there is a slight sea level rise, since the fresh melt water is less dense than the salty ocean water it displaces. If all the world's sea ice melted, it would raise global sea level by only 4 mm. This is a tiny figure compared to the 20 feet of sea level rise that would occur from complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet--which is on land.

The biggest concern about Arctic sea ice loss is the warmer average temperatures it will bring to the Arctic in coming years. Instead of white, reflective ice, we will now have dark, sunlight-absorbing water at the pole, leading to a large increase in average temperature. Warmer temperatures will accelerate the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The official word on climate, the 2007 IPCC report, predicted only a 0.6-1.9 foot sea level rise by 2100, due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet and other factors. These estimates did not include detailed models of ice flow dynamics of glaciers, on the grounds that understanding of the relevant processes was too limited for reliable model estimates. The IPCC estimates were also made before the shocking and unexpected loss of Arctic sea ice of the past two summers. In light of these factors, a large number of climate scientists now believe the IPCC estimates of sea level rise this century are much too low. The most recent major paper on sea level rise, published by Pfeffer et al. in the journal Science this month, concluded that a "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6-6.6 feet (0.8-2.0 meters). Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model--the ice flow dynamics of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. The authors caution that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial. Other recent estimates of sea level rise include 1.6-4.6 feet (0.5-1.4 meters) by Rahhmstorf (2007).

What would 3 feet of sea level rise mean?
Rising sea levels will lead to permanent and intermittent flooding in low-lying coastal areas across the world. A global sea level rise of .9 meters (3 feet) would affect 100 million people worldwide, mostly in Asia. The impact of hurricane storm surges will significantly increase as a result of sea level rise. Given a 3 foot rise in sea level, Hurricane Ike's storm surge would have overwhelmed the levees in Port Arthur, Texas, flooding the city and its important oil refineries. Galveston's sea wall would have been overtopped and possibly destroyed, allowing destruction of large portions of Galveston. Levees in New Orleans would have been overtopped, resulting in widespread flooding there, as well.

For more information
The wunderground sea level rise page has detailed background info on sea level rise.
The wunderground Northwest Passage page is also a godd reference.
realclimate.org has a nice post summarizing the recent sea level research.

Hurricane Ike relief
A group of wunderground members that are spearheading their own Hurricane Ike relief effort, aimed at providing assistance and supplies to people that are not in the mainstream relief areas. Donations are tax-deductible, and can be made in several ways:

Patrap's wunderblog
www.stormjunkie.com
www.portlight.org

Of course, contributing to the Red Cross or your local church is another great way to help out. Thanks!
Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters!
Thank you Jeff
None of the computer models develop 93L? From what I just looked at, the GFDL and HWRF have it as a Cat 1 shortly... am I seeing something wrong?
I read this news item and almost lost my laptop to a cup of coffee... Its news items like this that make people wonder what they are donating to..

Among those accepting a hand was Cheryl Harwell, who holed up in an empty hotel as Ike devastated the Bolivar Peninsula community of Crystal Beach. She ignored a mandatory evacuation order six days ago, and suggested she wouldn't be leaving anytime soon.

"I got everything I need here," said Harwell, 50, as she sat on the hotel's second-floor balcony with her husband and a friend.

Destruction surrounded them, but their second-floor abode was dry and tidy, complete with clean linen, bottled water and beer.

"We're happy here," said Harwell's husband, Armando Briones. "We've got plenty of cigarettes and plenty of food."

If they need something, they simply flag down the National Guard, which has been making daily checks.


...still smooth as a baby's hiney! Not a sign of a sunspot! Maybe, we're entering a "cool" period as other "skeptical" scientists have been saying, too.

93L may not develop, but if it does it's already very close to land masses. So, this system should be watched very closely.
Thanks Dr. Masters on the calm in the tropics and the information on the Artic Ice.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


...still smooth as a baby's hiney! Maybe, we're entering a "cool" period as other "skeptical" scientists have been saying, too.

93L may not develop, but if it does it's already very close to land masses. So, this system should be watched very closely.


The solar forcing may fluctuate slightly, but the other one keeps going up.


Great update Doc.
thank you dr.masters,and we all know that this blog will be watching 93l very closely
Quoting Orcasystems:
I read this news item and almost lost my laptop to a cup of coffee... Its news items like this that make people wonder what they are donating to..

Among those accepting a hand was Cheryl Harwell, who holed up in an empty hotel as Ike devastated the Bolivar Peninsula community of Crystal Beach. She ignored a mandatory evacuation order six days ago, and suggested she wouldn't be leaving anytime soon.

"I got everything I need here," said Harwell, 50, as she sat on the hotel's second-floor balcony with her husband and a friend.

Destruction surrounded them, but their second-floor abode was dry and tidy, complete with clean linen, bottled water and beer.

"We're happy here," said Harwell's husband, Armando Briones. "We've got plenty of cigarettes and plenty of food."

If they need something, they simply flag down the National Guard, which has been making daily checks.


The National Guard are angels in situations like these. I'm sure their help is needed in other places yet they still find the time to help those who decided not to help themselves. It's a tough call. While I admire the fortitude of those mentioned above and I realize that it's tough to leave your home, isn't there a time when reality settles in? So they have enough cigarettes and beer huh? Anything else the National Guard can drop by and supply them with. That kind of thinking just irks me to no end. My prayers are still with them all those who are suffering the effects of this horrible storm. I just wish they'd take some time and rethink their position to stay where they are. Such a tough situation. :(
dup sorry
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
reposted w/o asking permission!! sorry sj ^_^ StormJunkie 12:09 AM GMT on September 19, 2008 Evening all and as always, thanks for the support! And thank you!

For those in the Charleston area, I will be on Live 5 News at 11:00 loading the first of the supplies on the truck heading out this weekend. We will be rounding up more supplies tomorrow, but what we were loading when the news folks caught up with us was more supplies for the disabilities community. Tomorrow we will be rounding up many of the other items that area needed in the areas to the right of Houston. I talked with FLDART today, and he has been on the ground in the area already. That is a great group of folks as well as they are also working in many of the areas that are not getting attention, and like us it is a all volunteer group. Please visit their website www.floridadisasterteam.org. When I talked with them they had just gotten back from their first stint in the area behind Bolivar (Winni/Stowell/Beaumont), they will be headed back out there soon as well. As I suspected, this area is absolutely devastated, and they are in dire need of all kinds of supplies. Since they are in outlying areas, they are not getting the visibility nor supplies that the Houston/Galveston area is. We will have to pack this 26' truck full to even begin to help, and we will have to follow with more; so please donate to www.portlight.org; if you have already donated then thank-you and please continue to cheer lead in your local area. This word of mouth support can have a huge impact in raising awareness about what we are doing. I am flat out exhausted from another very long day. I will try to get some pictures of the news shoot that we did today, but it will may not be until tomorrow that I get to them. Thanks again everyone! And most importantly I know that the areas that we will be helping greatly appreciate it. John
DGEX is predicting strong winds, heavy rain and high surf in NE on Fri-Sat. System centered near NYC. Regular GFS shows energy out over the ocean at this time however.
Link
Quoting CaptnDan142:
846

Rather irresponsible to post this without an appropriate hat warning, isn't it?

"Tinfoil hats required. Shiny side out of course."



I don't think even the "tinfoil hats" would even help these people.....

What is really stupid is some of the videos show old closed military base housing facilities supposely as newly build "concretration camps" and the video showing the large parking lot that area I'm sure was looked at for use as a staging areas for disaster supplies or a responders base camp....These people need more drugs....

..............Sheeple..as you wave to your family being carted off to your nonexistant newly renovated multi milion dollar facilty that...haha YOU paid for.Being led by FEAR and To think that real americans would actually SEE this and laugh...not american to me.Hmm let me guess military? Sheeple. Over.
#6 MLC - I'm amazed... the sun is still spot free???? I think I read this has been one of the longest stretches w/out any sun spots... I figured by now there would be something.... it's interesting theory (?) that even the sun/ space winds etc affect us -- so much we DON'T know.
#7 Thanks CCHS!!
20. twc4
Check it out
Quoting surfmom:
#6 MLC - I'm amazed... the sun is still spot free???? I think I read this has been one of the longest stretches w/out any sun spots... I figured by now there would be something.... it's interesting theory (?) that even the sun/ space winds etc affect us -- so much we DON'T know.


I think it takes a year or two maybe three to kick in.
The main thing people need to remember from a scientific standpoint:

All planets go through normal heating and cooling trends and is:

NOT MAN MADE.

There are 4 main levels of heating and cooling:

*minimal - small variations cause a decade of cooling weather (like the 50s) and warm decades like 2000-current. Patterns run around 50-60 years between peaks.
We are coming to the end of one of these heating periods and by 2030-2040 it will be reaching a cooler peak.

*mediocre - variations greater then the minimal causing the cool weather to run farther south than usual. Typically peaks from high to low every 300-400 years.
We are close to or just past a warm peak (I believe this current warm peak was around 1996). Around the year 2500 will be back to a little ice age like what was seen starting around 1650AD. It takes about 500 years from the point where glacial peaks start growing again until the peak of the little ice age peak...

*major - major ice age periods peak every 15,000 year or so. Last ice age peaked around 11,000 years ago so we still have another 4,000 years of warming until it starts turning back down.

*global - every 80-100,000 years it reaches a point of global cooling (so 50,000 years between cool and warm peaks on this scale).



Around 1200AD saw a heated planet along the same lines as what we are seeing nowadays.. then around 1650AD saw the little ice age... and based on the normal trends seen for the past few millenia, we are around the peak of a warm trend. Another 300-400 years we will be right back in a little ice age again.
Man has had little to no impact on this planet, if anything it may cause an extra 0.5C heat increase but the planet will balance this out by making it 0.5C cooler on its next cool peak.
I did some checking on this and contacted some FEMA friends this uis what I got about the Aid Matrix thing:

Aidmatrix – a nationwide donations management system designed to organize and track goods and resources. In cooperation with FEMA since 2006, the Aidmatrix Foundation launched its web-based system to support states and members of the Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster (VOAD). The network connects government, the private sector and nonprofit organizations to a database which tracks available resources in real time.

From what I've been told: it ids a "for profit" tracking system NOT a quasi-gov agency that controls donated goods and volunteers and not all states subscribe to it. Its fairly new only being in business since 2006.

“Aidmatrix has taken state of the art technology used in successful businesses, reconfigured it and applied it to humanitarian purposes,” said Scott McCallum, President of Aidmatrix and former governor of Wisconsin. “To work, it requires a partnership between the government, Aidmatrix and the private sector.”

They have a web page also.

Link
#7 Thanks CCHS. Like everyone else here I hope this thing doesn't develop and if it does I'm almost tempted to wishcast it over my way. Anything but it going over or even close to Hispaniola and/or Cuba. Hopefully it will just die.
Just read the AOL post on the lone house that survived in Gilchrist. It was completly destroyed by Rita in 2005 and rebuilt to withstand a Category 5 hurricane ...
Hmmm, I was wondering, shouldn't water lines on that house give some indication of the storm surge from IKE in that location?
DELETED.
Quoting jmemon:
Just read the AOL post on the lone house that survived in Gilchrist. It was completly destroyed by Rita in 2005 and rebuilt to withstand a Category 5 hurricane ...
Hmmm, I was wondering, shouldn't water lines on that house give some indication of the storm surge from IKE in that location?
well it worked, should build all houses like that on the coast, don't you reckon
When I evacuated from Ike I couldn't help but notice the media coverage?? Geraldo Rivera was playing in the waves and said he caught a 117 mph wind gust?? Ike tried to throw a slab of concrete @ him and Geraldo dodged it!! Cantore high tailed it when a portion gazeebo tried to collapse on him?? Geraldo won this viewer.......again!! Blue roof, blue roof, blue roof heaven down here!!
Quoting Gumbogator:
When I evacuated from Ike I couldn't help but notice the media coverage?? Geraldo Rivera was playing in the waves and said he caught a 117 mph wind gust?? Ike tried to throw a slab of concrete @ him and Geraldo dodged it!! Cantore high tailed it when a portion gazeebo tried to collapse on him?? Geraldo won this viewer.......again!! Blue roof, blue roof, blue roof heaven down here!!


Personally wondering where the media coverage is now.. Seems IKE is now history!
just saw an interesting interview with a journalist on you tube about why they are banned from the bolivar pennisular, go to tube and put in hurricane ike dead bodies, sounds grim but great interview, cheers
Is it me or is this weird? I read both stories and according to one the house every says is the lone house sits on the ground. Yet the other has these 2 people near a house still on the stilts. I am confused.

House still on stilts
Link

House shown on here
Link
Good Morning fellow bloggers! I have a story to share this morning...My daughter just turned 7 & is in the 2nd grade. She is being taught current events in school & of course at home...She asked me if we have donated for Hurricane Ike. I told her that I had a few days ago (via Portlight) & that I was going to a meeting today I arranged at her school to see what we could do there to get donations. (fliers sent home to parents or a fundraiser, etc.)& she stated that I do not need to give her an allowance for a while and to please donate her $10 a week to help "those sad people in Tx & LA who have lost their homes and have no food or clothes". She then told me she felt sad for the kids who don't have toys anymore & asked if she could give them some of her toys she really doesn't play with anymore. It made me cry at first and very proud next. It's a shame more adults don't share the same attitude. I own a live auction that has about 200 customers every other Sat. night. I am encouraging them to donate to Portlight because I know these donations go to the areas not getting as much attention. I have emailed everyone I know and asked them to donate as well and pass the email along. There is a non profit thrift store next door to my building that we give stuff we can't sell to & I am going to speak with the owner today to see what else I can do. I wish I could physically go and help, but that is impossible. Anyone have any ideas as to what else I can do? In my meeting at the school today I am going to ask if I can go to the Palm Beach County School Board & make this more than a 1 school effort. Thanks in advance for any thoughts. Pat, Press, StormJunkie & all else who are doing what you are...YOU ROCK!!! It's good people like the ones on this blog who are making a difference!!! It's great to see people coming together!!
Quoting MiKai:
The main thing people need to remember from a scientific standpoint:

All planets go through normal heating and cooling trends and is:

NOT MAN MADE.

There are 4 main levels of heating and cooling:

*minimal - small variations cause a decade of cooling weather (like the 50s) and warm decades like 2000-current. Patterns run around 50-60 years between peaks.
We are coming to the end of one of these heating periods and by 2030-2040 it will be reaching a cooler peak.

*mediocre - variations greater then the minimal causing the cool weather to run farther south than usual. Typically peaks from high to low every 300-400 years.
We are close to or just past a warm peak (I believe this current warm peak was around 1996). Around the year 2500 will be back to a little ice age like what was seen starting around 1650AD. It takes about 500 years from the point where glacial peaks start growing again until the peak of the little ice age peak...

*major - major ice age periods peak every 15,000 year or so. Last ice age peaked around 11,000 years ago so we still have another 4,000 years of warming until it starts turning back down.

*global - every 80-100,000 years it reaches a point of global cooling (so 50,000 years between cool and warm peaks on this scale).



Around 1200AD saw a heated planet along the same lines as what we are seeing nowadays.. then around 1650AD saw the little ice age... and based on the normal trends seen for the past few millenia, we are around the peak of a warm trend. Another 300-400 years we will be right back in a little ice age again.
Man has had little to no impact on this planet, if anything it may cause an extra 0.5?C heat increase but the planet will balance this out by making it 0.5?C cooler on its next cool peak.


I agree with this assessment with the exception humans are heathing up the planet a little quicker than would have naturally occurred. The whole pattern equates to the number and frequency of hurricanes, starting in the mid 90's we started the upward trend in the number of cyclones to be devolped and we should start seeing the decline in the mid 10's. That is from only having about 100 years of data. Which is not much when you consider the earth is over 4,000,000,000 years old.
Quoting jmemon:
Just read the AOL post on the lone house that survived in Gilchrist. It was completly destroyed by Rita in 2005 and rebuilt to withstand a Category 5 hurricane ...
Hmmm, I was wondering, shouldn't water lines on that house give some indication of the storm surge from IKE in that location?


dams, a retired electrical designer, had a Galveston, Texas, engineering firm oversee a contractor as his new house was built. The columns put the house's bottom floor 14 feet above ground, or about 22 feet above sea level. Despite that, Ike's storm surge managed to get in.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/09/18/ike.last.house.standing/index.html
and?
Quoting MiKai:
The main thing people need to remember from a scientific standpoint:

All planets go through normal heating and cooling trends and is:

NOT MAN MADE.

There are 4 main levels of heating and cooling:

*minimal - small variations cause a decade of cooling weather (like the 50s) and warm decades like 2000-current. Patterns run around 50-60 years between peaks.
We are coming to the end of one of these heating periods and by 2030-2040 it will be reaching a cooler peak.

*mediocre - variations greater then the minimal causing the cool weather to run farther south than usual. Typically peaks from high to low every 300-400 years.
We are close to or just past a warm peak (I believe this current warm peak was around 1996). Around the year 2500 will be back to a little ice age like what was seen starting around 1650AD. It takes about 500 years from the point where glacial peaks start growing again until the peak of the little ice age peak...

*major - major ice age periods peak every 15,000 year or so. Last ice age peaked around 11,000 years ago so we still have another 4,000 years of warming until it starts turning back down.

*global - every 80-100,000 years it reaches a point of global cooling (so 50,000 years between cool and warm peaks on this scale).



Around 1200AD saw a heated planet along the same lines as what we are seeing nowadays.. then around 1650AD saw the little ice age... and based on the normal trends seen for the past few millenia, we are around the peak of a warm trend. Another 300-400 years we will be right back in a little ice age again.
Man has had little to no impact on this planet, if anything it may cause an extra 0.5�C heat increase but the planet will balance this out by making it 0.5�C cooler on its next cool peak.


I have been reading alot of papers about this the last couple of years, the most interesting was that historically co2 levels were elevated after a warming trend, not prior to.
Quoting jmemon:
Just read the AOL post on the lone house that survived in Gilchrist. It was completly destroyed by Rita in 2005 and rebuilt to withstand a Category 5 hurricane ...
Hmmm, I was wondering, shouldn't water lines on that house give some indication of the storm surge from IKE in that location?
It says here the surge was 14 ft. and topped by 20 ft. waves, dunno if they had actually been in the house yet, they have, it's totaled or almost so inside.Link And this is what cnn has to say about it. Link
Quoting MiKai:
The main thing people need to remember from a scientific standpoint:

All planets go through normal heating and cooling trends
Why, yes.
and is:

NOT MAN MADE.
For other planets, and for ours in prehistory, this is certainly true.


There are 4 main levels of heating and cooling:

*minimal - small variations cause a decade of cooling weather (like the 50s) and warm decades like 2000-current. Patterns run around 50-60 years between peaks.
We are coming to the end of one of these heating periods and by 2030-2040 it will be reaching a cooler peak.
So, while you (presumably) believe that "the scientists' climate models" are worthless for predicting climate change, you believe that you can predict climate patterns tens or hundreds of years into the future -- by simply extrapolating statistical trends from the past?

Man has had little to no impact on this planet, if anything it may cause an extra 0.5�C heat increase but the planet will balance this out by making it 0.5�C cooler on its next cool peak.

It's your privilege, of course, to believe whatever you want. I hope those setting energy policy, though, will pay a bit more attention to the realities of chemistry and physics.
ummmmm... has anyone else seen the GFDL and HWRF 00z runs?
this winter will begin people asking what about global warming....i believe that picture of the spot free sun still ...says it all..
yes Ice what about them, they are one run no 6z run yet we'll see if there is a 12z run.

Hi Stormjunkie, how are the efforts going?

Lurker Ike, no GFDL 6z runs have been run right?
Quoting IceSlater:
ummmmm... has anyone else seen the GFDL and HWRF 00z runs?

Yep, the TVCN is picking up that trend as well.
Quoting nolesjeff:


I have been reading alot of papers about this the last couple of years, the most interesting was that historically co2 levels were elevated after a warming trend, not prior to.


Yeah. Prior bouts of warming were caused by Milankovitch Cycles - natural variation in the orbit and tilt of the sun in relation to the earth.

Herein lies another problem of sitting on our hands and waiting for ABSOLUTE proof like some want to due in regards to greenhouse gases.

As you say, the earth's natural CO2 levels have gone up historically after a warming...and likely will enhance whatever effect humans have in starting the ball rolling.


Wikipedia - Milankovitch Cycles
Thanks Dr. M. Good morning all.

Come on this AM to see...

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
00 GMT 09/19/08 12.9N 59.8W 20 1010 Invest


I wasn't imagining things after all! :)

1010. Seastep 2:11 PM GMT on September 17, 2008

"I haven't seen mention of the area near 12N/57W. In looking at sats, appears to be some organization there and convection picking up."

36. Seastep 3:37 PM GMT on September 18, 2008

"I still see some rotation (although less pronounced this AM) in the area east of the lesser antilles. Maybe more NW of where I saw it yesterday. It was much more pronounced yesterday, but no one commented on my post, so I let it go. Maybe it is still there?"

351. Seastep 10:57 PM GMT on September 18, 2008

"Any feedback is greatly appreciated.

Have not had any feedback on the and I am starting to see it again. Seems to be organizing around that area and this is the third time I am seeing it. Comes and goes.

I posted this yesterday AM and again this AM. Now I am starting to see it again. Anyone else see anything?"


Link

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1089&tstamp=200809&page=8

(pats self on back for finally having the guts to hit the "post comment" button, fully expecting to be corrected by those WAY more knowledgeable)

No response to my posts so I assumed I was seeing something incorrectly.
I think next week is going to be interesting,looking at models,the lull should be coming to an end.
Ok... just curious, b/c everyone seems to be saying no models have picked up on anything... I agree we have to see if the next one shows the same thing... but just thought it was interesting how those 2 are so different then the globals.
Quoting CaptnDan142

PUBLIC apology, To the Dr. Masters blog.
I was very mad at the fact that it sounds like I believe this or filmed it (Been watching too much of it).I didn't like be categorized as one of the conspiracy people.I simply wanted to basically know if this was true..as stated. When I re-read your post it sounds as if you could be military with the name and all.As I read my response to you,I myself get the idea that I have insulted you .It was not to sound like that and I am very sorry if I have insulted anyone.Once you watch this stuff it makes you wonder..
Please,For any military folks (As in my family) I didn't mean for my comment to sound like that.Truly sorry and regret how it sounded.And very much appreciate our forces.

Sorry folks,I let it get the best of me I guess.

P.S. I read StormW posts all the time and want to apologize if I offended you as well.
Quoting jeffB:
Why, yes.
For other planets, and for ours in prehistory, this is certainly true.
So, while you (presumably) believe that "the scientists' climate models" are worthless for predicting climate change, you believe that you can predict climate patterns tens or hundreds of years into the future -- by simply extrapolating statistical trends from the past?


It's your privilege, of course, to believe whatever you want. I hope those setting energy policy, though, will pay a bit more attention to the realities of chemistry and physics.


And you mean YOUR realities, Not Big Al and his money making machine he has created.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Yeah. Prior bouts of warming were caused by Milankovitch Cycles - natural variation in the orbit and tilt of the sun in relation to the earth.

Herein lies another problem of sitting on our hands and waiting for ABSOLUTE proof like some want to due in regards to greenhouse gases.

As you say, the earth's natural CO2 levels have gone up historically after a warming...and likely will enhance whatever effect humans have in starting the ball rolling.


Wikipedia - Milankovitch Cycles


No, its better to do what we normally do in this country. Make hasty decisions on preliminary findings only to find out later that we didnt know enough about it.
Quoting sporteguy03:
yes Ice what about them, they are one run no 6z run yet we'll see if there is a 12z run.

Hi Stormjunkie, how are the efforts going?

Lurker Ike, no GFDL 6z runs have been run right?


Very poorly organized at this time i dont see how the NHC will continue running models on this thing.

There were no 6Z run of the GFDL/HWRF.From a quick view only the Bams and the lbar were run.
It was just 30 years that science said we were in the begining of an ice age? Jumped the gun a liitle on that one, huh?
9. LOL, SOS!

22. GR8 post!

Each is one camp or the other. It's whatever you believe - much like what political party one is more aligned. But, there is no conclusive data that clearly and unquestionably shows that man has warmed the planet. However, there is tons of information to support that data used to support such claims by the IPCC was submitted irroneously, manipulatively and even fraudulently...all to fit an AGW agenda.

...this is an old, tiring and boring subject. Now, back to the tropics, please! TIA

53. StormW 3:13 PM GMT on September 19,

No offense taken!

Thank you,Seriously.
I think I'll just read from now on.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #91
21:00 PM JST September 19 2008
==========================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY TWO TYPHOON IN SEAS SOUTH OF JAPAN

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Sinlaku (990 hPa) located near 33.8N 137.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 20 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
130 NM east from the center
90 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 36.3N 147.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 37.3N 154.4E - (EXTRATROPICAL)

---
Longest cyclone I've seen this year in the WPAC. I mean man this is the 91st advisory on this system. 0_o'
Quoting RMM34667:


Personally wondering where the media coverage is now.. Seems IKE is now history!
It is all in Houston. 4 stations streaming live... http://projectdisaster.com/ike.htm
Cycles people......All this is cycles.....The earth fluctuates naturally.....We have warming periods, cooling periods....I find it hard to believe that the man-made portion of trace gases(like Co2) will ultimately greatly affect one meteorological variable-temperature....What about pressure? What about the other 95% of the trace gases(water vapor)....We openly claim we know little about vapor processes.....

Just because a model can recreate the past recent climate says nothing about how that model will perform in the future.....

This is all I'm going to say about it.....Enjoy the warmth!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #5
21:00 PM JST September 19 2008
======================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Hagupit (1004 hPa) located near 13.8N 132.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.5N 129.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.2N 127.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.2N 127.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

---
Northern Luzon and Tawain may have to hunker down with this storm as well.. just a few days after being hit with Sinlaku.
HWRF t06z UTC


No hurricane model graphics available for this time.

93L will likely be dropped as fast as it was started. Look for 94L and 95L in the next few days.
Looks like 2007 Ice Minimum was , indeed, the minimum and it has begun rebounding. The area that is the difference between 2007 and 2008 is equal to the surface area of Spain.

Look out cooler temps are on the way. Global warming is history once again.
India Meteorological Department
IMD Bulletin #16
14:30 PM IST September 19 2008
=====================================

At 09:00 AM UTC, The Depression (BOB04-2008) over Madhya Pradesh moved north-northwestward and lays centered over Uttar Pradesh, close to Hamirpur. The system is likely to move further northerly and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely west Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over east Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours and east Uttar Pradesh during next 48 hours.

Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over west Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh during next 48 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Bihar and northeast Rajasthan during the same period.

---
still considered a depression after being overland since Monday.. (I believe)
Quoting Vero1:
It is all in Houston. 4 stations streaming live... http://projectdisaster.com/ike.htm


For the most part, though, mainstream media has dropped Ike coverage in favor of the financial bailouts.
Hey, TCW! Please, no mas! ;)
Quoting champagnedrmz:
Is it me or is this weird? I read both stories and according to one the house every says is the lone house sits on the ground. Yet the other has these 2 people near a house still on the stilts. I am confused.

House still on stilts
Link

House shown on here
Link


Didn't see a reference to house being on ground. Maybe I missed it. Pictures may give that impression, but actually ground level, even when enclosed, is meant to blow out. Manu houses built on Pensacola Beach look like they are built on the ground but are actually on stilts. Living area is up higher, although some have turned lower level into party rooms, storage, etc.
Should be interesting how the Arctic ice cover is when El Nino pays a visit.
TODAY MARK THE TENTH YEARS AGO THAT HURRICANE GEORGES CAT 3 THREATENING THE LESSER ANTILLES
they are still talking about ike heaps http://www.moonspoon.com/wx/ike.html
Global warming is a hornet's nest Dr. Jeff!

If I were a dinosaur I would have been better off if I'd:

1) Blew up that incoming asteroid
2) Rationed food
3) Diverted a river into that nasty volcano
4) Stopped eating beans ...
93L centered at 13.6N/59.8W?

Link

Quoting nolesjeff:


No, its better to do what we normally do in this country. Make hasty decisions on preliminary findings only to find out later that we didnt know enough about it.


The thing is Jeff...Global Warming is quite simple physics really in a broad sense.

Enhanced greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere effects can be quantified readily...simply by simulating different atmospheric compositions in a laboratory and passing energy through it - the effect can then be extrapolated to the atmosphere - good science that is in LITTLE dispute.

So this Positive forcing or warming effect will be present...

The only question is how does the non-linear system that is the Earth react to this positive forcing.

And here is where arguments can be made about the effects...

Generally, the sea level rise and changes in water availability from Glacier/snowfall decreases will have a much more deleterious impact on humans than less extreme winter weather.

Quoting nolesjeff:
It was just 30 years that science said we were in the begining of an ice age? Jumped the gun a liitle on that one, huh?


Quoting PcolaDan:


Didn't see a reference to house being on ground. Maybe I missed it. Pictures may give that impression, but actually ground level, even when enclosed, is meant to blow out. Manu houses built on Pensacola Beach look like they are built on the ground but are actually on stilts. Living area is up higher, although some have turned lower level into party rooms, storage, etc.


Thank you. I see it now.
Quoting nolesjeff:
It was just 30 years that science said we were in the begining of an ice age? Jumped the gun a liitle on that one, huh?


Only one or two scientists actually put that forth and it was quickly dismissed. But thanks for helping to perpetuate another myth!
A lot has been said about 2008's activity.

At this time in 1995 and 2005 (The two seasons faster than '08 to reach 10 storms) we were on 'M' on this day for '95, and Rita had just formed in '05.

For '02, the 4th fastest to reach 10 storms, Kyle forms... tomorrow. Lili is a day later. So, it's looking like 02 will overtake 08. However, Lili was the last named storm. Can we hope for the same again for this year?

79. 786
Hey see we have 93L, it does have a classic comma shape of a system thats wants to develop and is entering some of the hottest waters in the Atlantic. I can't tell you how many times this year we have said "POOF", it looks like crap and then boom it gets itself together and we are all on it. Given its direction I can't count this out, this years systems have not been predicatable and there are other factors which will work in its favour in the coming days. Even if the NHC drops it I won't be suprised that it makes a come back and gets named
And Global Warming realisation isn't anything new. The first papers pertaining to the phenomenon were realised in 1896, if memory serves. By a Swedish scientist.
of course, if your models aren't good...well, GIGO.
82. 786
...lets not forget the MJO will be helping this system
Quoting 786:
...lets not forget the MJO will be helping this system


Just about, it's very weak.

****Global Warming****
A lot of well meaning experts, that think on a far grander scale than I do, disagree.
Fingerpointing as to the blame is a game of oneupmanship and a moot point at this point.
Improved electric motors and more important battery technology need our focus more than who done it.
The current and future oil crisis will be the stimulus that grabs us by the throat and brings us all to a common table.



TWOPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

"NINA" has intensified into a Tropical Storm as it moves toward Eastern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 (1500z 19Sept)
===========================================
At 11:00 PM PhT, Tropical Storm Nina (Hagupit) located near 14.1ºN 132.7ºE or 890 kms east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 kts) with gusts up to 80 km/h (45kts).
84. Good post, Shep! Oil is not an unlimited supply - that's for sure. It will run out one day.
Concerning the Tropical Update, the 93L INVEST has dimished his thunderstorm activity and development is not expected in the next 3 days as it will be south of Jamaica.The most concerning right now is that Wave EMERGING THE COAST OF AFRICA That could become a "FOUR LETTERS NAME" storm : KYLE.IT SAID THAT A MALE GIVEN NAME WITH FOUR LETTERS,FORMING IN THE COAST OF AFRICA TRACKING WESTWARD ARE USUALLY LONG-LIVED AND POWERFUL STORM SUCH HUGO LUIS IVAN AND DEAN. Early model show a similar IVAN and DEAN track for the next seven days from now.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

"NINA" has intensified into a Tropical Storm as it moves toward Eastern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 (1500z 19Sept)
===========================================
At 11:00 PM PhT, Tropical Storm Nina (Hagupit) located near 14.1ºN 132.7ºE or 890 kms east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 kts) with gusts up to 80 km/h (45kts).


That's silly of them to re-call a Typhoon 'Nina'.

That's in the same category of re-calling a hurricane 'Mitch'.

(1975's Typhoon Nina killed in the region of 200,000 people.)
88.
***sticking my fingers in my ears!****

not listening! :) i've had just about enough hurricane fun.
Can't believe how many bloggers are here arguing about global warming when both sides have evidence that support their views. I really hate coming on the blogs when a global warming issue gets highlighted on here since there is so much counter-productive banter that occurs on here. Whenever global warming becomes the main discussion, it detracts from the learning other bloggers may be attempting to obtain from this blog.

Just want to know why you all consistently engage in a debate that leans toward both sides of the issue.


This "phase" diagrams shows the last 40 days of the MJO's position and amplitude. This shows the MJO which has a counter-clockwise movement around the earth as it moves eastwards across the eight phases from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific and later the western hemisphere. The color of lines distinguish different months and dates. The farther away from the center of the circle the stronger the MJO signal.

So, right now, the MJO appears to be in Phase 5 over the Maritimes and is, now, again showing signs of weaker status at it moves eastwards.
Alot of turning going on with the leeward system. There was not much of that yesterday.
#86Hades - thanks for the infor - tapping a note to my buddy in PI :) to be aware & check your blog
whoa the path of Nina (1975) is almost the same path Nina (Hagupit) will take except just a little further south.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
whoa the path of Nina (1975) is almost the same path Nina (Hagupit) will take except just a little further south.


That's what I mean...

It's scary.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
88.
***sticking my fingers in my ears!****

not listening! :) i've had just about enough hurricane fun.


Me too! my addiction has been cured...if I want waves, other then wind swell, I'll drive over to the east coast. Just hope if this becomes Kyle -- the dude will be a mellow fellow -- I had enough of this rough stuff
you're welcome surfmom
Quoting nolesjeff:


I have been reading alot of papers about this the last couple of years, the most interesting was that historically co2 levels were elevated after a warming trend, not prior to.

Right, because previously there were no massive sources of CO2. The scary thing is that what those charts show us is that the natural effect of rising temperatures is a positive feedback loop of higher CO2 which forces higher temps, etc. We are jumping into the loop in a really bad way, starting with high CO2, which will raise temps, those higher temps will increase CO2 even more. And don't get started on the effects of a warming world on CH4! If we don't change our whole world economy, we are going to be seriously hurting.
My opinion is that climate modelers know this, but are downplaying the effects because they don't want to be marked as doomcasters, even though they know we are headed down that route. Expect more hurricanes, expect stronger ones. Sell your beachfront property while you still can. :)
100. 786
Dar...where did you get the westward track like a Dean or Ivan from??

We have seen lots of invests lose convestion and regain it overnight so still not convinced this ain't a threat
geeeesh...I caught that fish exactly where I released her.
Even removed the area map from my web page until healthy conditions return.
And no,the "rules of the road" promise will be honored. So please don't backdoor with a wumail
inquiry.
99. Geesh, hendric! Read a paper and stop with "the sky is falling" crap! TIA


Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth
David H. Douglassa and John R. Christyb
(Accepted by Energy and Environment Aug 2008)

The recent atmospheric global temperature anomalies of the Earth have been shown to consist of independent effects in different latitude bands. The tropical latitude band variations are strongly correlated with ENSO effects. The maximum seen in 1998 is due to the El Niño of that year. The effects in the northern extratropics are not consistent with CO2 forcing alone
An underlying temperature trend of 0.062±0.010ºK/decade was estimated from data in the tropical latitude band. Corrections to this trend value from solar and aerosols climate forcings are estimated to be a fraction of this value. The trend expected from CO2 climate forcing is 0.070g ºC/decade, where g is the gain due to any feedback. If the underlying trend is due to CO2 then g~1. Models giving values of g greater than 1 would need a negative climate forcing to partially cancel that from CO2. This negative forcing cannot be from aerosols.

These conclusions are contrary to the IPCC [2007] statement: “[M]ost of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
My daily read of Storm W blog, thanks for outlook and update. You guys are into the global warming issues today. I will not even go there... I do worry. My continued thoughts for thoose in recovery zones.
When Dr. Masters is discussing artic ice melts in September that is a good sign that the tropics are quiet. Maybe next week we'll have something to watch. Congratulations to everyone aiding the Ike effort. I hope Storm Junkie and PressLord's wife stay safe in the mess they are entering! Thoughts and prayers for the folks of LA, MS, TX and Haiti right now. Let's hope future storms stay away from these areas, as they have had enough!!!!
Quoting nolesjeff:
It was just 30 years that science said we were in the begining of an ice age? Jumped the gun a liitle on that one, huh?


That's a widely debunked myth. Please stop repeating it.
Globial warming?????

A subject that just too many people are attempting to get into without enough knowledge to really know what they are talking about. There are too many scam artist involved in it at present and they have detracted from any reliable information....it's like I've seen on here the the 'wishcasters" telling us that a storm is going one way or the other...The planet may just be warming but if it is then I think it's a natural occurance, but that is just my opinion. The one thing that does strike me is why were the Vikings able to grow wheat in Greenland 900 years ago but its covered in ice today does that mean we just wejt though a mini Ice age again?. No one has been able to explain that one to me yet.
Thanks, Doc M. More food for thought.

And speaking of food...what's climate change got to do with the price of corn? *snickers* (A trip to the grocery store gives the obvious answer.) *shrugs*
HadesGodWyvern - Just wanted to comment on your posts. You're doing a terrific job keeping us all informed about storms occuring on the other side of the globe. Its great to see that there is someone else, besides myself and a few others, that has global awareness and seeks to get others to become aware on a global perspective. Keep up the great work and I will continue to look forward to your postings.

By the way, in response to your post 95, that is odd. Its always intriguing to compare other similar storms (in some cases same names) and how they seem to take on similar paths.
At the end of the day... with Global Warming does it really matter whether it's true or false, naturally cyclic or man made?

The answer is no, not really.

I personally don't really have an opinion because there is too much bad science, propaganda and opinionated perspectives when it comes to GW, be it for or against.

Using alternative fuel sources because it's healthier, fossil fuels aren't going to last forever, and finding faster and more efficient fuel sources comes under the heading common sense.

Recycling, eating healthier diets, getting produce and other food stuffs created or produced, as well as distributed closer to home still comes under common sense.

At the end of the day, not using your 4 gallon to the mile SUV to make the environment and the air you breathe cleaner, regardless of whether it actually causes the globe to warm or not, is still a good idea.

So, do the activities that are suggested. If GW is a sham, what have you lost? Nothing, you've made things healthier for you and other people. You've used common sense. If GW is indeed correct, then you've done your bit to help the planet.

The debate to me, is focusing on entirely the wrong question. Just something for academics to argue the day away with.

(End tirade.)

110. MahFL
... Global warming is history once again.


I am FL, I think I'll buy a fur coat ..LMAO.
Update on Galveston.
Link
Quoting Cotillion:
At the end of the day... with Global Warming does it really matter whether it's true or false, naturally cyclic or man made?

The answer is no, not really.

I personally don't really have an opinion because there is too much bad science, propaganda and opinionated perspectives when it comes to GW, be it for or against.

Using alternative fuel sources because it's healthier, fossil fuels aren't going to last forever, and finding faster and more efficient fuel sources comes under the heading common sense.

Recycling, eating healthier diets, getting produce and other food stuffs created or produced, as well as distributed closer to home still comes under common sense.

At the end of the day, not using your 4 gallon to the mile SUV to make the environment and the air you breathe cleaner, regardless of whether it actually causes the globe to warm or not, is still a good idea.

So, do the activities that are suggested. If GW is a sham, what have you lost? Nothing, you've made things healthier for you and other people. You've used common sense. If GW is indeed correct, then you've done your bit to help the planet.

The debate to me, is focusing on entirely the wrong question. Just something for academics to argue the day away with.

(End tirade.)

I could not agree more. Well put.
Quiet now but the seed is there. The leeward system has a bunch of turning and now looking at the wU model page (which is nice) they are now taking it near Jamaica and not through the Mona straights and out to sea. Blockbuster? Hopefully not
109. Another nice post. Thanks, Cotillion!
Quoting lickitysplit:


Only one or two scientists actually put that forth and it was quickly dismissed. But thanks for helping to perpetuate another myth!


It may not have been overblown by Hollywood as Gw is, but since i was around in those days, I believe Time had a big spread on it!!! The myth was they didnt have the facts, and it was false!! Do some research for yourself before you talk about what you obviously know nothing about.
Quoting Cotillion:
At the end of the day... with Global Warming does it really matter whether it's true or false, naturally cyclic or man made?

The answer is no, not really.

I personally don't really have an opinion because there is too much bad science, propaganda and opinionated perspectives when it comes to GW, be it for or against.

Using alternative fuel sources because it's healthier, fossil fuels aren't going to last forever, and finding faster and more efficient fuel sources comes under the heading common sense.

Recycling, eating healthier diets, getting produce and other food stuffs created or produced, as well as distributed closer to home still comes under common sense.

At the end of the day, not using your 4 gallon to the mile SUV to make the environment and the air you breathe cleaner, regardless of whether it actually causes the globe to warm or not, is still a good idea.

So, do the activities that are suggested. If GW is a sham, what have you lost? Nothing, you've made things healthier for you and other people. You've used common sense. If GW is indeed correct, then you've done your bit to help the planet.

The debate to me, is focusing on entirely the wrong question. Just something for academics to argue the day away with.

(End tirade.)



Good opinion, I agree
According to the story linked below, the "last house standing" in Gilchrist, TX had its floor elevated 14 feet above ground level, which was thus about 22 feet above sea level, and still had interior damage from Ike's surge (or waves atop surge?). This house was built on the site of one that destroyed by Rita in 2005; this explains its absence in the "before" photo Jeff Masters posted a couple of days ago.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/09/18/ike.last.house.standing/index.html
#106,Bones,

I agree. It was named "Greenland" because it was an green island when it was discovered and it grew things.

I'll bet you the folks that live there wouldn't be too objective to having the temps raise just a bit so they can grow a few crops themself... what do you think? I doubt they would object to become "greenland" again.
Quoting nolesjeff:


It may not have been overblown by Hollywood as Gw is, but since i was around in those days, I believe Time had a big spread on it!!! The myth was they didnt have the facts, and it was false!! Do some research for yourself before you talk about what you obviously know nothing about.


Time Magazine report from 1974 on the coming Ice Age
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html
"common sense"...need more of it on many issues...good post..
Quoting Bones429:
Globial warming?????

A subject that just too many people are
attempting to get into without enough knowledge to really know what
they are talking about. There are too many scam artist involved in it
at present and they have detracted from any reliable
information....it's like I've seen on here the the 'wishcasters"
telling us that a storm is going one way or the other...The planet may
just be warming but if it is then I think it's a natural occurance, but
that is just my opinion. The one thing that does strike me is why were
the Vikings able to grow wheat in Greenland 900 years ago but its
covered in ice today does that mean we just wejt though a mini Ice age
again?. No one has been able to explain that one to me yet.


You can't grow crops in Greenland today? Better tell that to this guy!



Greenland Guide:

"During the summer, South Greenland fully lives up to its Danish name, Green Land, as this is the most fertile part of the country. In fact most of the flora of Greenland grow in this particular region. The winter climate is relatively mild, and summer temperatures reaching 16-18°C are not uncommon. Because of these conditions, the economic life of this area is also very different from the rest of Greenland, with sheep farming and agriculture playing an important part. If you take a boat trip along the fjords you will see isolated sheep farms, some of which have paths and rough roads leading to them, while for others the only contact with the outside world is by boat or radio transmitter."

FYI, CO2 levels are at the highest they've been in at least the past 650,000 years, almost all of that occurring in the past 200 years. A great cosmic coincidence, I assume? Yes, not every climate scientist agrees with anthropogenic global warming. But the overwhelming majority of them do. It's your choice if you want to align yourself opposite the overwhelming majority based on a hunch.
and what is so wrong with having the Northwest Passage being open again for a week every summer before it freezes back up again.???

at one point in history it was actually a Northwest Passage.. that is how it got it's name correct?
Quoting seflagamma:
#106,Bones,

I agree. It was named "Greenland" because it was an green island when it was discovered and it grew things.

I'll bet you the folks that live there wouldn't be too objective to having the temps raise just a bit so they can grow a few crops themself... what do you think? I doubt they would object to become "greenland" again.


I read a good article not long ago that if the current trend of increasing temperatures continue to build more and grow more, along with Greenland's bountiful oil reserves, they could be quite the power.

I can't remember where I read it though, sadly.
WOW

"Some Ike victims may not be allowed to rebuild"
Quoting 786:
Hey see we have 93L, it does have a classic comma shape of a system thats wants to develop and is entering some of the hottest waters in the Atlantic. I can't tell you how many times this year we have said "POOF", it looks like crap and then boom it gets itself together and we are all on it. Given its direction I can't count this out, this years systems have not been predicatable and there are other factors which will work in its favour in the coming days. Even if the NHC drops it I won't be suprised that it makes a come back and gets named
This IS the season of don't count it out till the fat lady sings or till it's safely on it's way to Europe going E over the Atlantic or gone into the Pacific. THAT is when you can say it's a goner.
Have to go to work, hopefully 93 will be the only thing going when I get back but there is development by some of the models for the waves coming off of Africa. Link For newbies this is a MUST HAVE link, or @ least I think so. ;-)
Quoting Chicklit:
Update on Galveston.
Link
Chicklit
I have been keeping up with the info in regards to offshore platforms and wells. Do you have any further info involving Homeland Security role with offshore evaluations (R&R). They have really slowed the pace for crews and divers trying to get into the gulf. My husband is an ROV supervisor and was detained for days with the cost of $7,000 per day just for the boat to be on standby.
109. Cotillion
Thanks, but just for the record, my 93,4wd Suburban gets 19.5 mpg....We're not all bad
;>)
Quoting groundgirl:
This IS the season of don't count it out till the fat lady sings or till it's safely on it's way to Europe going E over the Atlantic or gone into the Pacific. THAT is when you can say it's a goner.


You're sure?

Link

"Faith struck the Faroe Islands on September 5 with sustained winds still over 100 mph and only then did the storm cease to be a tropical system."

We Europeans are people too, thanks. ;)
It's your choice if you want to align yourself opposite the overwhelming majority based on a hunch.

majority is for politics......NOT science. Where in the scientific method does it say they needs to be a consensus? Not too long ago prominent loners like Galileo were scolded as being crazy with his theories.....We now know them to be true.....Science is based on observation and experiment....
Dr. Masters keeps coming back to the GW issue so I guess I have to put in my input; although I certainly appreciate the science on this important issue (man those scientists like to look at "ice" based data) based upon my current age, and the time-tables around 2100, I'll make sure to warn my kids, and potential future grandchildren, not to consider waterfront purchases in Florida years after I am "gone".....
the only reason the vikings settled on greenland,was because it was hospitable to farming!!!,there's no doubt we are effecting the weather,I think personally not as much as advertised though....jmo
Quoting seflagamma:
and what is so wrong with having the Northwest Passage being open again for a week every summer before it freezes back up again.???

at one point in history it was actually a Northwest Passage.. that is how it got it's name correct?
Ditto on that, it's not politically correct to say that though.;-) I see it was open in 1497.
Dr. John R. Christy is Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville where he began studying global climate issues in 1987. In November 2000 Gov. Don Siegelman appointed him to be Alabamaâs State Climatologist. In 1989 Dr. Roy W. Spencer, a NASA/Marshall scientist, and Christy developed a global temperature data set from microwave data observed from satellites beginning in 1979. For this achievement, the Spencer-Christy team was awarded NASA's Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement in 1991. In 1996, they were selected to receive a Special Award by the American Meteorological Society "for developing a global, precise record of earth's temperature from operational polar-orbiting satellites, fundamentally advancing our ability to monitor climate."

Dr. Christy has served as a Contributor (1992, 1994 and 1996) and Lead Author (2001) for the U.N. reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in which the satellite temperatures were included as a high-quality data set for studying global climate change. He has or is serving on five National Research Council panels or committees and has performed research funded by NASA, NOAA, DOE, DOT and the State of Alabama and has published many articles including studies appearing in Science, Nature, Journal of Climate and The Journal of Geophysical Research. Dr. Christy has provided testimony to several congressional committees.


Now, what I find interesting is the fact that Dr. Christy was a very well respected scientist as far as the IPCC was concerned...UNTIL he begain to make observations that disagreed with their 'agenda'.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
A href="http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-



national/20080918/Ike.Beach.Houses/" target=_blank>WOW



There are a number of other issues that also may prevent rebuilding .
1. Repeative claims -Those who have claimed flood insurance to rebuild in the past may not be allowed to rebuild.
2. Changes in EPA or CZM regulations may also prevent rebuilding .
There is a good chance that many will not be allowed to rebuild.
Quoting seflagamma:
and what is so wrong with having the Northwest Passage being open again for a week every summer before it freezes back up again.???

at one point in history it was actually a Northwest Passage.. that is how it got it's name correct?


The NWP is a tiny part of an ecosystem that will never be the same. I won't post a pic of drowning polar bears. BTW, are there Arctic views of weather systems that aren't cut and paste?
Quoting stillwaiting:
the only reason the vikings settled on greenland,was because it was
hospitable to farming!!!,there's no doubt we are effecting the
weather,I think personally not as much as advertised though....jmo


It was and is. There are isolated fertile areas in southern Greenland, and that's where they settled. They died out due to a number of factors -- a period of harsher winters, yes, but also reduced demand for their trade goods in Europe, a stubbornness that had them insisting on living just as they had in Scandinavia instead of adapting to their new environment, a racist superiority complex that led them to constantly be at war with the "skraelings" (lit: "barbarians" -- their name for the innuit), and so on.
If I remember my history lessons, the Vikings named Greenland and Iceland as they did as a diversionary tactic against settlers and pirates.
Now,
what I find interesting is the fact that Dr. Christy was a very well
respected scientist as far as the IPCC was concerned...UNTIL he begain
to make observations that disagreed with their 'agenda'.


FYI, if you had ever actually read the IPCC reports, they cite papers that disagree with AGW or dispute its significance aplenty. They cite basically every peer-reviewed paper that's out there. The IPCC works by summarizing the results of every peer-reviewed work and establishing general consensuses from the results with a degree of confidence in each conclusion, then publishing those in the technical reports. The technical reports are condensed into technical summaries, and those are put into "dummy speak" as the summaries for policymakers.
Quoting theshepherd:
If I remember my history lessons, the Vikings named Greenland and
Iceland as they did as a diversionary tactic against settlers and
pirates.


That's a false etymology. Greenland was settled by Eric the Red, who left Iceland after being exiled for murder. There are three common names early used for it early in its history -- Graenland, Gruntland, and Engronelant, with no evidence to explicitly state why any of them were chosen. It is possible, for example, that Graenland ("Greenland") is a corruption of Gruntland ("Groundland"). We know why Vinland (Newfoundland) was named, but the naming of Greenland is shrouded in mystery. Either way, the area where they settled was indeed green, and still is today.
Again we are seeing people presuming to know better than Earth scientists such as Dr. Masters. He outlined clearly the sequence of likely events around the arrival of hurricane IKE, the initial surge, the wind damage and the resurge as water returned to the sea. The resulting photos show eloquently that his warnings, although couched in probabilities, should have been taken seriously, especially by those in the likely danger zone. So what happened? People who thought they knew better stayed, some even had a party. Where do you think those partygoers are now?

Dr. Masters presents an event associated with Global Warming. AGW probabilities are supported by a wide variety of earth scientists, from Paleontologists, Oceanographers, Climatologists to name just a few of the disciplines invoved in the latest IPCC AR4 findings. What happens? People can read the the Artic Sea Ice Summer melt is the second highest in living memory: that you and I will never ever see the Artic Ice extent that was the norm in the '80s, and the responses from some on this blog are the same as those of the missing people partying on Crystal Beach.

"Waaah! It's all nonsense. I KNOW better than any scientist." .

(RIP)
Quoting KarenRei:


It was and is. There are isolated fertile areas in southern Greenland, and that's where they settled. They died out due to a number of factors -- a period of harsher winters, yes, but also reduced demand for their trade goods in Europe, a stubbornness that had them insisting on living just as they had in Scandinavia instead of adapting to their new environment, a racist superiority complex that led them to constantly be at war with the "skraelings" (lit: "barbarians" -- their name for the innuit), and so on.
I can't remember who wrote it but the book Collapse has a VERY good synopsis of why the settlers failed on Greenland.
Thanks StormW
Hello all!
Quoting Cotillion:


You're sure?

Link

"Faith struck the Faroe Islands on September 5 with sustained winds still over 100 mph and only then did the storm cease to be a tropical system."

We Europeans are people too, thanks. ;)
SORRRY, I meant a goner for the US to get hit, should have clarified, I'm only 2 generations away from Europe myself so I know you are people too!! LOL
Quoting groundgirl:
Ditto on that, it's not politically correct to say that though.;-) I see it was open in 1497.


No it wasn't. Cabot's 1497 voyage only got as far as the eastern Atlantic coast. The Northwest Passage has been navigated before this melt, mind you, but via icebreaker, dogsled, things of that nature.
Excellent synopsis Storm,looks interesting of the east coast next week,I guess this signals the early start of nor'easter season.
148. 786
Hey guys any chance we can talk about the tropics???? 93L, future African wave, etc
The IPCC is FOS! It's a "political" extension of a corrupt body of wanna be "world government" and taxation. There's nothing "scientific" about it.

It's more fun watching the grass grow than reading the jibberish that says man has caused his own demise already. Meanwhile, the AGW leader continues to jetset and buy new boats, etc, etc, etc!

...markets down? Man, I'd bet now would be a good time to invest in a "straigh-jacket" manufacturing company - lots of subjects for their wearing if this kind of nonsense keeps up! Nice day out, a bit chilly even! I actually put on a sleeve yesterday evening! AGW? Naaahh! Just ABS! ;P

Thoughts and prayers still for those in Ike's wake! And, a much more appropriate and serious issue than an ice melt that largely effects nothing and is cyclical through earth's history. Yet, "ice" is a pertinent subject! But, ice that keeps food and drinks cool drinks for those in the TX, etc, areas! But, not the ice or lack of in the northwest passage!


I'm done with this hogwash! Later - enjoy your "sky is falling" debachery! It's a real gas! LOL
Quoting 786:
Hey guys any chance we can talk about the tropics???? 93L, future African wave, etc


lol,in my short time since last year on this blog,in quiet times,the minds like to wander,especially to that subject I refuse to mention
Quoting seflagamma:
and what is so wrong with having the Northwest Passage being open again
for a week every summer before it freezes back up again.???

at one point in history it was actually a Northwest Passage.. that is how it got it's name correct?


No, it is not. The concept of the Northwest Passage was based on the prevailing theory at the time that seawater could not freeze naturally (this was "confirmed" when sailors tested icebergs and found that they were made of freshwater, falsely suggesting that they must have formed on land). Hence, there was a long period where people repeatedly sought, unsuccessfully, to find an open ocean lane north of Canada that they thought must somehow be there.
Nice MM5 from earlier this morning...Should get another update soon.

I for one am glad this season is over. And I don't even live by the coast!!

138. KarenRei I HAVE read (so you ASSUMED falsely that I had not) *rolls eyes*"BUT,"

Yes, the IPCC has improved upon it's reporting by the inclusion of data that represent a disagreement with their 'general consensus (political)"...but, at the time that Dr. Christy was directly involved with the IPCC, this was NOT the case (His words, research them *smiles*)
Greenland was never able to grow grain. They can grow potatoes there. Barley can be grown there, a little bit, and barley can be grown in Iceland. Wheat cannot be grown in either place now, period, and has never been able to be grown since people settled there.

And---the northwestern passage has never existed since explorers started searching for it. This is also the first year that the northestern passage from Europe across the top of Siberia to the Bering Strait has opened
Quoting oracle28:
I for one am glad this season is over. And I don't even live by the coast!!




The season goes through Novemver 30th. Not over yet.

As Ike says" 72 days left and the tropical atlantic hurricane season is over"
Quoting oracle28:
I for one am glad this season is over. And I don't even live by the coast!!



Please stop with the nonsence....Shouldn't you be at school?
Quoting oracle28:
I for one am glad this season is over. And I don't even live by the coast!!




The season is not over! We have made it past the peak of the season but we are still watchful until at least the end of November.
Quoting sporteguy03:



The season goes through Novemver 30th. Not over yet.

As Ike says" 72 days left and the tropical atlantic hurricane season is over"


Again, only officially.

Did Olga and Zeta teach you nothing?
Santamaria.
BRAVO !
AMEN !
Quoting oracle28:
I for one am glad this season is over. And I don't even live by the coast!!



Nov 30th its over.
gustav will not be retired
153. whoa? who closed the season down? LOL

that's wonderful news to me! :)

(one word, though: Mitch)
Afternoon, Smiley :)
Quoting StormW:
Afternoon, Adrian!


Hey SW!
Quoting StormW:
147. NEwxguy 12:46 PM EDT on September 19, 2008
Excellent synopsis Storm,looks interesting of the east coast next week,I guess this signals the early start of nor'easter season.


Looks that way...sheesh! you and I were just workingh Nor'easters not too long ago.



Yeh,I know,it seems like we fast fowarded through summer.
Hey, Pottery!

And, Santamaria, you make a nice post with some merit; but, have you considered that the ice melt may be less associated with any warming (much less AGW)? It may in fact be due more so to rising volcanic activity. Greenland and Artic volcanic evidence lends credence that this is contributing to the melt!

It all really depends on which scientists you follow and believe in, but there is no clear, conclusive data to support AGW! It just does not exist.

I think a lot of people here need to read this article on Global Warming/The next Ice Age. This is a debate that has been going on for over a 100 years.
Link
Looking at the overall set-up across the central and eastern atlantic this afternoon iam pretty sure what ever developes out there per the GFS is likely to turn out to sea.

Just to many obstacles present such as trofs etc...
Quoting oracle28:
I for one am glad this season is over. And I don't even live by the coast!!



Theres a lot of people on here,that wish that was true,but most of us know it ain't over
I am curious why Dr Masters does not mention that the ice in the Antarctic is increasing.
Quoting NEwxguy:



Yeh,I know,it seems like we fast fowarded through summer.
Yeah, summer is over and so are the storms. LOL
173. That's easy! It's called "hype" for money and...the beat goes on! If you pound something into someone's head long and often enough, they'll eventually believe it.
176. you're not referring to truth by repetition, are you? :)
according to the latest satellite imagery, a weak surface low is developing west of the main thundertstorm activity. This system's cyclonic flow will be more vigorous as it continues to move further north away from the equator. The fact that the weak circulation is west of the main convection mass, indicates that it is struggling with wind shear.

Link
Quoting Maighstir:
I am curious why Dr Masters does not mention that the ice in the Antarctic is increasing.



It is increasing?
Some Ike victims may not be allowed to rebuild

The reason: A 1959 law known as the Texas Open Beaches Act. Under the law, the strip of beach between the average high-tide line and the average low-tide line is considered public property, and it is illegal to build anything there.
Quoting Santamaria:
Again we are seeing people presuming to know better than Earth scientists such as Dr. Masters. He outlined clearly the sequence of likely events around the arrival of hurricane IKE, the initial surge, the wind damage and the resurge as water returned to the sea. The resulting photos show eloquently that his warnings, although couched in probabilities, should have been taken seriously, especially by those in the likely danger zone. So what happened? People who thought they knew better stayed, some even had a party. Where do you think those partygoers are now?

Dr. Masters presents an event associated with Global Warming. AGW probabilities are supported by a wide variety of earth scientists, from Paleontologists, Oceanographers, Climatologists to name just a few of the disciplines invoved in the latest IPCC AR4 findings. What happens? People can read the the Artic Sea Ice Summer melt is the second highest in living memory: that you and I will never ever see the Artic Ice extent that was the norm in the '80s, and the responses from some on this blog are the same as those of the missing people partying on Crystal Beach.

"Waaah! It's all nonsense. I KNOW better than any scientist." .

(RIP)


With due respect to Dr Masters who I believe does a fantastic job and I love this blog. Did he tell you last year the date and time and location Ike would hit? No! why? Because the science isnt there!!!

We cannot predict the weather a week in advance and you expect scientist to predict what may happen years from now?
12z CMC 12z GFS unanimously drop the hybrid storm system that is expected to develop.

Link
Quoting futuremet:



It is increasing?


Has been for some time. But you won't hardly find a single story on it. Yay for free flow of information and telling all sides... *rollseyes
Looking at the overall set-up across the central and eastern atlantic this afternoon iam pretty sure what ever developes out there per the GFS is likely to turn out to sea.

Just to many obstacles present such as trofs etc...


Of course something could sneek in the Carribean... hmmmmmm lol
MLC, post 169.
Good points. But I worry that while we are all waiting for the final, indisputable proven Word on GW, that we are not doing enough to improve matters with our pollutants on the air, sea and land.

It may be, that we will regret our inactivity in the future.
It may be, that the thing is purely natural.

We dont know for sure, and I feel that we should slow the destruction WHERE WE CAN, in the interim.
It certainly will do no harm...........
187. IMA
Quoting SafeInTexas:
Some Ike victims may not be allowed to rebuild

The reason: A 1959 law known as the Texas Open Beaches Act. Under the law, the strip of beach between the average high-tide line and the average low-tide line is considered public property, and it is illegal to build anything there.


Did you catch this part - "Every one of them was warned of that in their earnest money contract, in the deed they received, in the title policy they bought," he said. "And whether you like it or not, neither the Constitution of the United States nor the state of Texas nor any law permits you to have a structure on state-owned property that's subject to the flow of the tide."
Quoting seflagamma:
and what is so wrong with having the Northwest Passage being open again for a week every summer before it freezes back up again.???

at one point in history it was actually a Northwest Passage.. that is how it got it's name correct?em>


Dr. Masters
Explorers have been attempting to sail the Northwest Passage since 1497, and 2007 and 2008 are the only known years the passage has been ice-free.
Quoting RevInFL:



The season is not over! We have made it past the peak of the season but we are still watchful until at least the end of November.
and then some
Quoting futuremet:



It is increasing?


Mostly. Especially on the Eastern side of the Antarctic. On the Antarctic peninsula, it is decreasing, I think.

Could be wrong though, been a while since I checked up on it.
185. GOOD! i hope you're right :)

i'm tired of tree limbs, shingles, and sheetrock!
I meant the LANDFALLING season is over. Not the tropical season. It seems like most storms after the peak tend to recurve.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Dr. Masters
Explorers have been attempting to sail the Northwest Passage since 1497, and 2007 and 2008 are the only known years the passage has been ice-free.


More incorrect informatin. According to wiki:

The belief that a route lay to the far north persisted for several centuries and led to numerous expeditions into the Arctic, including the attempt by Sir John Franklin in 1845. In 1906, Roald Amundsen first successfully completed a path from Greenland to Alaska in the Gjøa. Since that date, several fortified ships have made the journey.
Quoting racer925:
I think a lot of people here need to read this article on Global Warming/The next Ice Age. This is a debate that has been going on for over a 100 years.
Link


The article ignores today's science, but it does put much of the blame for public ignorance on the media which is appropriate.
i think Dr. Masters chose the topic he did to get the post count up! LOL
Quoting oracle28:
I meant the LANDFALLING season is over. Not the tropical season. It seems like most storms after the peak tend to recurve.


This would prolly prove true with the ones forming off africa, but what about the ones that can develope in the GOMEX??
yay I finally got my avitar to work, after much trying swearing, it worked, I am computer hopless when it comes to that, still can't cut and paste, LOL big smile
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Bulletin #18
17:30 PM IST September 19 2008

=====================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, The Depression (BOB04-2008) over Uttar Pradesh weakened into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area over central Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over west Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during next 36 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over east Madhya Pradesh during next 36 hours.

Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh during next 36 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Bihar during the same period.

---------
system is almost done... I believe Northern India may be getting flooding, but I am not really sure.
Man, is there ANY good news out there besides Storm Junkie, Patrap and Presslord?

Want to donate to the relief effort of Hurricane IKE and don't know how? Visit www.stormjunkie.com and click on the donate tab at the top of the page. United We Stand. The need far exceeds the deed so donate often.
Thank you for this update, Dr. Masters.
anyone know how to convert centimeters to inches =P

Chief amounts (≥ 7 cm) of past 24 hrs rainfall as recorded at 0830 IST of today, the 19-09-2008

Chhattisgarh: Durg 16, Bailaigarh & Pithora 14 each, Basana 13, Saja and Pendra Rd 12 each Gariabandh, Chhuda, Sankara & Mahasamund 11 each, Arang, Raipur, Masturi & Bangodam 10 each Manna, Dharamjaygarh & Sariapalli 9 each,Bilaspur, Takhatpur, Rajim, Mahendragarh and Marwahi 8 each Abhanpur, Tilda, Simga, Balari, Berla, Gurur, Pandaria,Bamanadhi, Basantpur, Zondra & Bilha 7 each.

Orissa: Patnagarh 7.

Madhya Pradesh: Umaria 15.
203. jeffB
Quoting nolesjeff:
We cannot predict the weather a week in advance and you expect scientist to predict what may happen years from now?


I can't predict the exact times when cars will drive past the entrance to my subdivision. However, I know that if I consistently pull out without coming to a stop, I'll eventually get T-boned. Would you say that, since I can't predict the behavior of those other cars, I'm a fool for heeding the stop sign?

Dismissing long-term climate models based on the difficulty of short-term weather forecasts is exactly that foolish.
197.This would prolly prove true with the ones forming off africa, but what about the ones that can develope in the GOMEX??

The GOMEX has been worked over by Fay,Gustav, and Ike, not much chance of anything more than a TS popping up there.
Hi all! I have only posted twice here but in regard to 93L...
Have been keeping a very close eye on it as I am potentially in its path.
To me it looks like it is showing a good turning motion presently and shears forcast to die down shortly...just wondering why more folks are not talking about this and why the models are not being a bit more aggressive on it?
The computer models seems to be strenghthening the subtropical anticyclones each run. This may be due to the Madden Julian Oscillation move in. The MJO cause anomalous vertical motion in the air near the intertropical convergence zone or equatorial trough. As a result, air pressure will decrease further in the tropical regions and increase in the subtropical reasons. This will intensify the hadley cell circulation, which will increase the pressure difference between tropical and subtropical areas.

Please note that rising air from equator (or any place that is heated more than anywhere else during certain times of the year)converges, rise, condense, diverges,sink near 30 degrees north. This why the primary anticyclones are located in the subtropical regions.


This is my theory that the Madden Julian Oscillation may enhance Hadley cell circulation at various parts of the earth.


Do you guys think it is reasonable?
208. jeffB
Quoting Dar9598:
IT SAID THAT A MALE GIVEN NAME WITH FOUR LETTERS,FORMING IN THE COAST OF AFRICA TRACKING WESTWARD ARE USUALLY LONG-LIVED AND POWERFUL STORM SUCH HUGO LUIS IVAN AND DEAN.


Behold the power of statistical extrapolation based on past climate patterns! What use are models when we have powerful techniques like this one?
Chhattisgarh India: Durg region 16 cm of rain

6 inches of rainfall.. a lot of rain from a 02B
Thanks TheCaneWhisper
186. Excellent post and completely right on target, Pottery! Thanks.

195. LOL. If there was more info and pics, etc, from Ike and what's happening in the tropics, then I'm sure the post count would go up as well. btw, nice black-n-white post of the globe showing that next wave about to hit the water off Africa. Thanks.


I've gotta run out, y'all; but, if the AGW advocates are still around later on (and I'm sure you will), we'll post some more stuff that disputes the findings!

Several of us went through all of that crap last year and the evidence of AGW is simply not conclusive, despite what some will tell you. Visit some of sebastionjer's past blogs if you're open-minded and suspect that you might be suffering from Al Gore's hype and want to learn some real truths. Jer has covered it extensively and has a pile of scientists that do not subscribe to AGW.

If you're in the "sky is falling" crowd visit Ricky Rood's blog. It's chaulk full of gloom and doom. You'll feel right at home in there; but, be careful! Take an umbrella or the sky might actually fall on you in there! Or better yet, be sure to wear an asbestos suit cause it'll get awfully hot. LOL, or better yet, wear you hip waders cause you'll need it - the BS gets pretty deep in there, too!
Quoting KarenRei:


No, it is not. The concept of the Northwest Passage was based on the prevailing theory at the time that seawater could not freeze naturally (this was "confirmed" when sailors tested icebergs and found that they were made of freshwater, falsely suggesting that they must have formed on land). Hence, there was a long period where people repeatedly sought, unsuccessfully, to find an open ocean lane north of Canada that they thought must somehow be there.


Global warming is a Fact, Man made global warming is a Hoax. We need to use our sicence to adapt not to try to stop it you cannot stop nature.
That's all....
Quoting reedzone:
Looking at the overall set-up across the central and eastern atlantic this afternoon iam pretty sure what ever developes out there per the GFS is likely to turn out to sea.

Just to many obstacles present such as trofs etc...


Of course something could sneek in the Carribean... hmmmmmm lol


Sure can sneak up in the caribbean but looks like there will be a deep layer trof in the vicinity so anything out there will likely turn north.
173. Maighstir 5:08 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
I am curious why Dr Masters does not mention that the ice in the Antarctic is increasing.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

He has, but don't let that get in the way of your "discussion."
It appears that 93L has divided into two different convection masses since yesterday evening, one at 50w, and one at 60w. The system near 60w will have a higher chance to develop than the 50w system.

The 50w system is being stifled by the sinking air caused from the upper level divergence of the upper level about 500 miles northwest of it....nevertheless, the CMC does develop it about 120 hours from now.
216. Inyo
Where do all these co2-related global warming denialists come from? They all seem to demonstrate a lack of basic understanding in science. Just because there are natural climate changes doesn't mean humans can't also cause changes. Pretty much any scientist not paid off by Bush or the oil companies is convinced it is happening... those of you who are still in denial should seriously question your motives.. because your beliefs are not backed up by any real data.
Quoting jeffB:


I can't predict the exact times when cars will drive past the entrance to my subdivision. However, I know that if I consistently pull out without coming to a stop, I'll eventually get T-boned. Would you say that, since I can't predict the behavior of those other cars, I'm a fool for heeding the stop sign?

Dismissing long-term climate models based on the difficulty of short-term weather forecasts is exactly that foolish.


I just read yesterday, and i cant remember where it was, but will find it. Anyway the long term models were using an equation on the release of co from the ground and water that they are now finding was inaccurate which will drastically change the models. Which once again proves my point, we dont know enough about it to say either way. I agree we should all do our part to take care of our planet for ourselves and future generations but I am sick of The Al Gores and the hollywood types that pretend they care to make money and keep their names in the spotlight.
Hey MLC...how goes it today?
I still think 93L coc is trying to form at about 14-15N/59W and just went under a nice burst, but do also see the swirl to the west of that.

We will have to wait and see.
220. Inyo
Also I thought it was well established that warming could cause temporary increases in Antarctic ice? Or are you just noting that the ice is more abundant than 6 months ago? That is called winter and it happens every year.

Also, saying that global warming is a hoax because Al Gore is irritating is just plain silly. Al Gore is, in his irritating way, echoing things being said by most climate scientists.
Blog update

Caribbean System... complete with Spaghetti Models 93L

Caribbean System... with Cloud Cover 93L

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
WOW

"Some Ike victims may not be allowed to rebuild"


I am sorry, a person who voluntarily places themselves in harm's way is not a victim.

While their current situation is tragic, they were willing participants in full knowledge of the law. When two boxers enter the ring and fight, the loser is never declared to be a victim.

Quoting jeffB:


I can't predict the exact times when cars will drive past the entrance to my subdivision. However, I know that if I consistently pull out without coming to a stop, I'll eventually get T-boned. Would you say that, since I can't predict the behavior of those other cars, I'm a fool for heeding the stop sign?

Dismissing long-term climate models based on the difficulty of short-term weather forecasts is exactly that foolish.


Statistically you should get T-boned, but its not 100 percent chance!
Quoting hurricane23:


Sure can sneak up in the caribbean but looks like there will be a deep layer trof in the vicinity so anything out there will likely turn north.


look at the 12z models...they have strenghthened anticyclones that expected to move east.

post 206 explains why the models are intensifying the ridges
225. JRRP
is the center in the 14n 64w ?
thank you Dr.Jeff for that wonderful writeup on the Arctics! IMO, the problem with the global warming issue is that, most of the facts, hardcore scientific findings related to the same are being hijacked mindlessly by politicians around the world, who have no clue of what science is all about - on the one hand, the right-wing would gladly claim everything is happening as per some pre-ordained Destiny, the liberals make a lot of hue and cry about the impending doom from global warming without looking at the issue objectively and rationally - in the ultimate analysis, the real facts are hidden somewhere and science suffers!

the fact is global warming is real and greenhouse emissions are real and happening - to dismiss the trends of these phenomena as some global cyclical weather phenomena is both dangerous and unwise - true we are burning more fossil fuel than ever before, and either we restrict the same or resort to some other mode of energy consumption to arrest the fast decline happening right in front of our eyes! this trend will only worsen in the next decade or so, with countries like China and India fast on the path to economic prosperity with increasing demands of energy every year - what is required is collective international political will to address the issue as a humanitarian concern - but so far as politics holds centrestage, and business interests are hand-in-glove with the same, the truth will forever be obfuscated
hey tigger, that bridge that we discussed last nite was not the one we did after Hugo. It was the Isle of Palms connector...
Quoting 192 - oracle28:
I meant the LANDFALLING season is over. Not the tropical season. It seems like most storms after the peak tend to recurve.


Opal, '95. Made a real mess around my house. I note you said "most," and so technically correct?

Yogi
Quoting Inyo:
Where do all these co2-related global warming denialists come from? They all seem to demonstrate a lack of basic understanding in science. Just because there are natural climate changes doesn't mean humans can't also cause changes. Pretty much any scientist not paid off by Bush or the oil companies is convinced it is happening... those of you who are still in denial should seriously question your motives.. because your beliefs are not backed up by any real data.


Ok and how do you exlaing the global warming event in Mars "is it the rovers we sent there" it is very probable that CO2 (which is not a pollutant) is part of the problem here on earth, but Humans contribute to less than one percent of the total CO2 output which is basically comming from nature itself. Look it is all natural selection we are been tested by Nature to see if we deserve to survive as a s[ecies we can spend all of our resources figting a futile fight against mother Nature then sing cumbaya and die or we can use those resources to create technologies to help us adapt to this next warming cycle and then a future Ice age. Use you science the right way or Natural selection will take care of us starting with Vegans.
kieth...

ALOT of bridges were messed up...that one included...Charleston is a bunch of areas all separated by bridges of many types...that is why when storms hit here, whether it be tropical or winter...most things shut down... you can't get from one area to another without crossing a bridge...
231. Inyo
And as a final note, why are so many people so resistant to the idea of human-caused global warming? We need to get off oil either way, to be fair, the domestic oil the republicans want probably won't have a measurable effect on global warming because it is quite insiginficant, it won't have a measurable effect on oil prices or foreign dependency either, since the amount of oil is not enough to do anything and it won't be available for 10 years (and by then of course AGW will be an obvious fact). All the drilling will do is make a few CEOs even richer, we need to GET OFF OIL!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...
AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Ummmmm....hugo hit september 21st....and was HUGE...change one letter and you got the name... guess they had the right name for that one.
230. that brings up an interesting point...has anyone heard of structural damage to the causeways in the Houston area? i have seen nothing on this subject...
236. Inyo
Ok and how do you exlaing the global warming event in Mars

Well, there are either 8 or 9 planets, depending on how you look at Pluto, you'd expect that at least one planet would be in a warming cycle. Also we've been tracking mars climate for how long? four years?
Orca -.... too soon, haven't caught my breath yet, it's like getting pounded in the break... you come up for air and b/4 you can shut your mouth, another wave comes crashing down.....aihh yia yia.... gotta be a better way to keep family up north
Speaking of GW, The US is up 3 to 1 in Ryder cup
Hope John Hope is resting easy. The low seems far out in front of its convection overnight we might have something else to track
Quoting hcatsailer2008:


I am sorry, a person who voluntarily places themselves in harm's way is not a victim.

While their current situation is tragic, they were willing participants in full knowledge of the law. When two boxers enter the ring and fight, the loser is never declared to be a victim.



I agree, just surprised.
Afternoon all,
Upside to the whole global warming debate (fist fight?) is that both sides are realizing climate is not static. It will change, either we are doing it or nature will do it. It's been both hotter and colder in the past, but our mental time scale has problem encompassing just a few decades. Hence, construction of Bolivar, TX despite the hazard - intellectually we knew it was a risk (elevated homes) but we didn't appreciate that emotionally (lots thought they could ride it out).
Eventually, we will better understand and be able to predict climate swings - either to try and change them or at least to adapt to them.
Yogi
Satellite Global Temperature



Land and Sea Global Temperature (official IPCC record keeper)




source
Quoting Inyo:
And as a final note, why are so many people so resistant to the idea of human-caused global warming? We need to get off oil either way, to be fair, the domestic oil the republicans want probably won't have a measurable effect on global warming because it is quite insiginficant, it won't have a measurable effect on oil prices or foreign dependency either, since the amount of oil is not enough to do anything and it won't be available for 10 years (and by then of course AGW will be an obvious fact). All the drilling will do is make a few CEOs even richer, we need to GET OFF OIL!



Ok why dont you start by giving us an example, Turn off all of your lights at home queit cooking quit driving do not use electricity forget abot the heaters or air conditioning as a matter of fact go and join the Amish and live in the 18 century again. Is this what this is all about anyway? we are underservong species according to you all and we need to go back to 18 th century huts. Or maybe you already designed the next 100 percent efficient hydrogen cell vehicles and you in your infinte wisdom have discovered the secrets of cold fusion right and Pooofff!! Tomorrow all of humanity including thisrd world countries will miraculously stop using oil right. Please sir back to reality ok it will take a while for this to happen. We need to drill now and develop the technology so that in the future it will be feasible for us to get out of oil quit dreaming you are destroying your country don't you understand!!! what do you think the rest of the world is as concerned as you are no the are 10 times worse than us and if you even complain they will silence you so love the USA.
#200Canewhisperer -- MORE GOOD NEWS!!! Just got an e-mail from ..EMMY ROSE!!! She's doing good, riding out the "bad weather" and stoked to be in the www.portlight.org loop!

In front of our eyes we/I watched a few guys think up an idea,brainstorm a plan AND expedite RAPIDO aid to those who have suffered Ike's wrath. The trucks are on the road - WU community in action....walking the talk and getting help to the people. www.portlight.com
I agree, enough with the oil already -- I am really fascinated by the turbines that work off the wave action of the ocean....but the CEO's of OIL -- they won't like anything that puts them out of the position of power.....
Hello everybody,I usually don't post that much just read your comments,commenting about 93L both the 00Z,GFDL & HWRF develop this into a major hurricane North of Santo Domingo.
It's rare that nobody is talking about this models run??.
Here are the link for this models:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Well, it changed to orange.
249. IKE
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody,I usually don't post that much just read your comments,commenting about 93L both the 00Z,GFDL & HWRF develop this into a major hurricane North of Santo Domingo.
It's rare that nobody is talking about this models run??.
Here are the link for this models:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


The 12Z runs with both models don't do much with 93L at all...Link
I really dont like tropical forecasters using percentages to determine cyclone formation. Okay 20% chance? Is that tomorrow two days ahead? Now its 20-50% So it was 1 out of 5 now its 4 or so out of 10. I like the old system of saying poor fair good much better.
ok...love lurking here when no storms to talk about...the debates can be rather interesting to say the least, however, let's face facts, the GW debate will never be won nor lost... to many variables are in the mix, and it depends on whether or not you are creationists or evolutionists...some things do factor into it, but the biggest thing people are not taking into account is the fact that the population has increased by MILLIONS! More people, more Co2...we can't hold our breath and we don't kill our offspring to reduce the population. We also breed animals to have the food consumption, they emit Co2 as well...but without some GW we would freeze to death...look at the moon...things have been tracked better in the last few hundred years weather wise, but just like the ocean has cycles, so does the earth, no one can say 100% what these are because too many millions of years have passed, do we need to be more aware of what we do? Sure we do, but EVERYONE that is posting on ANY blog is contributing to GW...you cannot preach it untill you give up your computers and modern way of life and live like the pioneers...I do what I can by hanging out laundry instead of using a dryer all the time, recycle, etc...but, technology is why we live longer, cure cancer and other diseases, drive cars that go more than 20mph instead of using a horse drawn carriage, have medivac choppers to get people in critical condition to hospitals that can actually save them instead of bleeding out like even 50 years ago, etc...so, do you want to be saved by all these modern conveniences or die in the middle of a corn field if you cut your leg trying to get a tree out?
Quoting CaneHunter031472:



Ok why dont you start by giving us an example, Turn off all of your lights at home queit cooking quit driving do not use electricity forget abot the heaters or air conditioning as a matter of fact go and join the Amish and live in the 18 century again. Is this what this is all about anyway? we are underservong species according to you all and we need to go back to 18 th century huts. Or maybe you already designed the next 100 percent efficient hydrogen cell vehicles and you in your infinte wisdom have discovered the secrets of cold fusion right and Pooofff!! Tomorrow all of humanity including thisrd world countries will miraculously stop using oil right. Please sir back to reality ok it will take a while for this to happen. We need to drill now and develop the technology so that in the future it will be feasible for us to get out of oil quit dreaming you are destroying your country don't you understand!!! what do you think the rest of the world is as concerned as you are no the are 10 times worse than us and if you even complain they will silence you so love the USA.


we dont have to live like the Amish - with due respect to them - the least we can do is recognize that we have a problem in our hands, and try solving it rather than indulging in some small things such as spending millions of taxpayers money on an unwanted war!
I just had a chance to read some information on how close the refineries in Galveston came to really taking a big hit. I just hope this is a wake up call to see how fragile the United States really is when it comes to our energy situation. I doubt it will, as every time we just "dodge a bullett" we drop our guard and wait for the next big one.
Quoting surfmom:
I agree, enough with the oil already -- I am really fascinated by the turbines that work off the wave action of the ocean....but the CEO's of OIL -- they won't like anything that puts them out of the position of power.....


Surfmom, The same could be said about Big Tobacco CEO's 25 years ago. We arent there yet but slowing smoking is going away. Notice most of the big tobacco companies have now diversified into other things. Rj reynolds is now big food company
Quoting surfmom:
#200Canewhisperer -- MORE GOOD NEWS!!! Just got an e-mail from ..EMMY ROSE!!! She's doing good, riding out the "bad weather" and stoked to be in the www.portlight.com loop!

In front of our eyes we/I watched a few guys think up an idea,brainstorm a plan AND expedite RAPIDO aid to those who have suffered Ike's wrath. The trucks are on the road - WU community in action....walking the talk and getting help to the people. www.portlight.com


Surfmom,
I think it www.portlight.org. I tried to go to your link and it didn't work so i went to portlight.org and it took me to the huuricane relief page. I am going to donate. Thanks
Amen Tigger
Good afternoon guys... back... not that it matters LOL!!!

Ok... my update on 93L.

Since my little update this AM... I reiterate I know NAM is not used for TC development but it has done a good job in my opinion handling cyclogenesis closer to CONUS.

Now as of 12Z 93L seems to be doing its best on trying to get its act together. Current Wind Shear still looks the same between 10 to 20 knots, but expected to relax a bit. 12Z NAM, NOGAPS, CMC, MM5, HWRF are hinting towards this system developing into a minimal T.S. and taking it to the southern Bahamas.

12Z GFDL did the same as the previous but with a much weaker system that pretty much disappears after trying to get through DR/PR.

Even though it doesn't look like much now... appearances are deceiving and since we're not dealing with dry air like the other INVEST areas (e.g. 92L) this one would have more potential towards some sort of development.
ok, so this debate is actually about war now? Um, my ancestors are FROM here, american indians, how bout yours? Others came here and started wars to gain the ownership of the land you live on...same happened all over the world, so...basically, war is inevitable, like, hate it, what ever, supporting a war and supporting a soldier are 2 totally different things... the freedom you live with today is from a war NO ONE wanted...but, to have what you have, it WAS inevitable.
Quoting IKE:


The 12Z runs with both models don't do much with 93L at all...Link


I think the initialization position of the 00Z is more accurate.

I know NHC still says differently at 2PM EDT, but just looks further east to me.

For these invests, what is the prime indicator(s) that they use for positioning? TIA
Tigger, I think you make a valid point. I like to think that moderation, and giving up on the greed attitude, and our WASTEFUL habits --would make a big difference. Passing up 16 plastic bags ='s 1 mile of gas......if and when we add up the little things --we can make differences. We have to change our disposal think......
To be honest, I'm quite surprised the NHC decided to upgrade Invest 93L to Medium Chance for tropical storm formation. Throughout the day, all I have been watching is a very meager looking tropical disturbance that has an exposed circulation center, an inflow system cut off by strong upper-level westerlies, no outflow whatsoever, and scattered moderate convection. Just my opinion and this forecaster's analysis.
Was at Presslord's a little bit ago taking supplies for the truck leaving charleston tomorrow, while I was there, Emmy Rose called him as well.
Hello everybody,nobody is talking that much about 93L,and both the 00Z models runs of the GFDL & HWRF develop this system into a major Hurricane north of the Dominican Republic in about 3 days,please find below the link for this models.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
OOOOPPPS thanks goodoldbudsir - !!!!
surfmom and noles...

Modernization is NOT the problem like you said, but, if everyone recycled just their bags from the grocery stores or took their own cloth bags (they sell them there now fairly cheap) we would need way less oil...the largest of our problems would be solved...
I just looked at the latest model runs and neither HWRF or GFDL develop it strongly.
251 tiggerific:...good ol common sense goes along way...good post
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody,nobody is talking that much about 93L,and both the 00Z models runs of the GFDL & HWRF develop this system into a major Hurricane north of the Dominican Republic in about 3 days,please find below the link for this models.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


That's the 00Z you looked at I think. Go look again at the newest 12Z and they have both completely changed their minds.
Quoting surfmom:
OOOOPPPS thanks goodoldbudsir - !!!!


my pleasure
Thanks Tigger for the update -- Emmy Rose is a real humanitarian -- she is SOOO APPRECIATIVE of the help coming her way --
272. 7544
for 93l the gfdl now goes nw last model run it had it fishing . hmmm

msu5gfs still shows it pretty strong in the so bahammas

looks like this one will be a tough call on where it will be going ?

could 93l be a fla system in the long run
Link
Quoting surfmom:
Orca -.... too soon, haven't caught my breath yet, it's like getting pounded in the break... you come up for air and b/4 you can shut your mouth, another wave comes crashing down.....aihh yia yia.... gotta be a better way to keep family up north


Looks like your going to be doing a lot of surfing if you look at the models :)
Quoting tiggeriffic:
surfmom and noles...

Modernization is NOT the problem like you said, but, if everyone recycled just their bags from the grocery stores or took their own cloth bags (they sell them there now fairly cheap) we would need way less oil...the largest of our problems would be solved...


Even if I didnt agree with you, which I do. My wife is fanatical about reclying everything. We could do so much more as a country
TY keith...

never said I was a rocket scientist...but glad I am not...they say that the higher the IQ, the lower the common sense...rarely are the 2 both high in one person...rather glad my IQ is not 180 like my big bro...brain wise, he is a genius, common sense wise....dumber than a house plant...ROFL
Quoting Inyo:
Ok and how do you exlaing the global warming event in Mars

Well, there are either 8 or 9 planets, depending on how you look at Pluto, you'd expect that at least one planet would be in a warming cycle. Also we've been tracking mars climate for how long? four years?


That is a stupid argument either way... Earth is 4.5 Billion years old. Even if we can go back 600,000 years and track the earth's climate with ice core samples we only have data on the earth's climate for .0015% of her total existance.

Can you show me a scientist that will run on data with a .0015% sample size. Just sayin.
277. MahFL
Oh Oh carib blob is now a medium risk !....some one call Mayor Nagan !.
My only fear with 93L is if it survives which is a big if it might very well travel into some rather favorable conditions and warm sst's in the caribbean in the coming days.Long range stuff but a rather strong trof might be in place which might steer what ever is down there possibly towards florida.

No worries as of now just something to keep an eye on.
I owe everybody an update....will come in detail tomorrow after the last of the trucks are rolling...financials, progress, photos, etc.....we're at about $12000.00....please don't hold me too tightly to that as I've been working on logistics - securing stuff, etc. _ and it's a rough estimate....spending it as fast as it comes in on supplies, vehicles, and a lot is gonna go toward fuel...sorry this is a flyby....had surgery 3 weeks ago today and am operating on about 8 hours sleep in the last 3 days....I'm not whining....just explaining....

www.portlight.org

God bless and "Thanks!!!!!!"
Quoting Inyo:
*pointing at a Longhouse Steak Resturant* The Cows did it!

The United Nations Food & Agricultural Association claims that the world’s 1.5 billion cows are worse then all the cars, planes, and all other forms of transportation PUT TOGETHER. Apparently, cows are so dangerous because their “emissions” contain methane gas—a substance thought to heat the atmosphere twenty times more than the carbon dioxide that usually gets all of the press.

Cows are believed to account for one third of all the world’s methane emissions, and therefore the tasty beef-supplying critters are responsible for all the most heinous crimes against the environment: acid rain, desertification, and, of course, the destruction of coral reefs.
about 20 years ago we put solar panels on our roof, I believe in 3 years we made back the money we put out in the investment. In other words I have NOT paid/used energy to heat the hot water in my house for 17 years......I just love that....but I don't understand why it isn't part of the building codes that every house built gets solar panels.... They work great and only 3 times in all the years we have them did we not have enough sun to make the water hot. Sometimes, I have the opposite problem -- the water gets TOO hot
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080918/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_almanac_weather;_ylt=At7Aj_6JugNDuhng39TpFo0Z.3 QA... farmers almanac says period of Global Cooling...
283. Vero1
Elsewhere in the Tropics

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 26W/27W S OF
18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W 5-10 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 18N.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE W COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N14W 8N29W 9N43W 10N55W 10N84W.
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-61W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
75W-85W...ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N94W
TO 21N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROUGH. A WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM
29N87W TO 24N85W. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND N GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FL AND AL
COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NE BRINING MAINLY DRY NW FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 16N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO NICARAGUA IS PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 63W IS MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOW LEVEL SUPPORT E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING CONVECTION THERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N73W SW TO
26N79W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH NO CONVECTION
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 29N74W TO 24N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING
THE CENTRAL AND N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER BEING
ENHANCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE CONUS E COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N45W IS
GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100
NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW
NEAR 34N19W IS BRINING CLOUDY CONDITIONS N OF 24N AND E OF 19W
ALONG THE NW AFRICAN COAST INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IN RESPONSE TO DIFFLUENCE W OF AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 12N54W. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL LARGE E/W
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
TO 40W BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND E TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
COHEN/WALLACE
Canehunter~ Where have you been? Germany is getting off oil. They are leading the world & found a thriving economy in solar. The car technoligy is there, the big companys bought it, tested it, destroyed the cars & shelved it. They bought out mass transit systems & destroyed them too. We could have been plugging our cars into solar panels at home & work by now. We use more energy in gas to move food 1/2 way around the world to your mouth supporting big ag instead of eating local..& ya know why it's just as cheap to eat shipped food? The cost to ship is subsidized for with our taxes. No one is saying lets all live Amish. A solar water heater pays for itself in about 3-5 years. That's roughly 1/4 of your house's energy use. A change in light bulbs, some insulation, some caulk. You may be shocked to figure out how quick new appliance pay for themselves because they are more energy efficient. Ask any mom with a new washer & drier, that's upgrade, 3Xs the capacity, not 1800s. Everything I've done to reduce energy has improved the quality of my living & saved me money.
I will attest to the fact that Presslord looks like he has been thru the wringer...but my littlest one likes him anyway (and me too)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I just looked at the latest model runs and neither HWRF or GFDL develop it strongly.

I don't know which models are you checking but again the GFDL,in 126 hours put 93L,at a pressure of 968.08 millibars,winds=99.1 knots.
and hte HWRF in 126 hours at a pressure=946.08 millibars,winds= 87.9 knots.
Quoting houstonman:


we dont have to live like the Amish - with due respect to them - the least we can do is recognize that we have a problem in our hands, and try solving it rather than indulging in some small things such as spending millions of taxpayers money on an unwanted war!


I am more concerned about the loss of life then I am about tax payers dollars, but sometimes you make sacrifices to make the world a better place.
Presslord, thanks for dropping in - we all understand the work at hand....please though pace yourself -- we care about you too!
Quoting tiggeriffic:
ok...love lurking here when no storms to talk about...the debates can be rather interesting to say the least, however, let's face facts, the GW debate will never be won nor lost... to many variables are in the mix, and it depends on whether or not you are creationists or evolutionists...some things do factor into it, but the biggest thing people are not taking into account is the fact that the population has increased by MILLIONS! More people, more Co2...we can't hold our breath and we don't kill our offspring to reduce the population. We also breed animals to have the food consumption, they emit Co2 as well...but without some GW we would freeze to death...look at the moon...things have been tracked better in the last few hundred years weather wise, but just like the ocean has cycles, so does the earth, no one can say 100% what these are because too many millions of years have passed, do we need to be more aware of what we do? Sure we do, but EVERYONE that is posting on ANY blog is contributing to GW...you cannot preach it untill you give up your computers and modern way of life and live like the pioneers...I do what I can by hanging out laundry instead of using a dryer all the time, recycle, etc...but, technology is why we live longer, cure cancer and other diseases, drive cars that go more than 20mph instead of using a horse drawn carriage, have medivac choppers to get people in critical condition to hospitals that can actually save them instead of bleeding out like even 50 years ago, etc...so, do you want to be saved by all these modern conveniences or die in the middle of a corn field if you cut your leg trying to get a tree out?


Oh by all means tigger, It is about keeping our home clean and I am all about that. Also we need to try to be prudent in the way we spend our resources especially because what you said we have grown exponentially so conserving is part of surviving as species and maybe trying to terraform other planets in the future. But to think that we have cuased global warming andthat we need to pay Al gore dues because we have sinned and destroyed the planet this is a great mistake a dangerous one because it deviates out attention into irrelevant argument that will solve nothing. We need to adapt becuase climate goes in cycles many different ones and warming is one of them as well as cooling. If we interfere with those cycles we can cause more problems than the ones we solve ie Hurricane seeding.. People need to quit the pixie dust fantasy wake up and realize that we are worth living and that in fact we are as much part of nature as is the burds and the ants and that also we are powerless against mother nature.
thanks for the update Presslord...
Yeah,ORCA I looked at the models (and my inner child is just jumping w/thought of surf prospects) but my never disappearing conscience is freaked w/the thought of more pain and suffering for humanity and critters -- I got way blasted from IKE -- I felt like a radar picking up all the pain,sorrow and agony out there.

some relief was at least being able to throw some "cha-ching" to www.portlight.org.
another thing you can do to conserve energy is to set your AC to 77 or 78 and LEAVE IT there... set your heat to 68-70 and LEAVE IT there... those temps are more than adequate to keep you comfortable in summer and winter... if you still feel warm...turn on a fan...takes less energy and just the simple circulation of air will ALWAYS make you feel cooler.
289Canehunter - cheers!!! We are all related - humans, land, critters etc the web of life
Quoting surfmom:
....but I don't understand why it isn't part of the building codes that every house built gets solar panels....


Because they are ugly?? :)
Quoting surfmom:
289Canehunter - cheers!!! We are all related - humans, land, critters etc the web of life


Amen
Quoting hurricane23:
My only fear with 93L is if it survives which is a big if it might very well travel into some rather favorable conditions and warm sst's in the caribbean in the coming days.Long range stuff but a rather strong trof might be in place which might steer what ever is down there possibly towards florida.

No worries as of now just something to keep an eye on.


Seen this morning that our rain chances diminished over the weekend, now I see why. Surprised to see the trough that deep this time of year.
297. 7544
Quoting Hurricane1956:

I don't know which models are you checking but again the GFDL,in 126 hours put 93L,at a pressure of 968.08 millibars,winds=99.1 knots.
and hte HWRF in 126 hours at a pressure=946.08 millibars,winds= 87.9 knots.


link please tia
Out of curiosity, when does the "Cape Verde Season" officially end? At some point the average shear prevents systems from making the trip across the Atlantic. Does anyone know when this is? Thanks...
Quoting TheMom:
*pointing at a Longhouse Steak Resturant* The Cows did it!

The United Nations Food & Agricultural Association claims that the world’s 1.5 billion cows are worse then all the cars, planes, and all other forms of transportation PUT TOGETHER. Apparently, cows are so dangerous because their “emissions” contain methane gas—a substance thought to heat the atmosphere twenty times more than the carbon dioxide that usually gets all of the press.

Cows are believed to account for one third of all the world’s methane emissions, and therefore the tasty beef-supplying critters are responsible for all the most heinous crimes against the environment: acid rain, desertification, and, of course, the destruction of coral reefs.
if you think about it a dinasour is way bigger than a cow hehehe
300. JRRP
93L
00 GMT 09/19/08 12.9N 59.8W 20 1010 Invest
12 GMT 09/19/08 13.3N 63.5W 20 1010 Invest
18 GMT 09/19/08 13.3N 64.4W 25 1010 Invest
Quoting 7544:


link please tia


GFDL 12Z

HWRF 12Z


Both show nothing happening.
most of the models are backing off the cyclogenesis of the se coast end of next week
Quoting tiggeriffic:
another thing you can do to conserve energy is to set your AC to 77 or 78 and LEAVE IT there... set your heat to 68-70 and LEAVE IT there... those temps are more than adequate to keep you comfortable in summer and winter... if you still feel warm...turn on a fan...takes less energy and just the simple circulation of air will ALWAYS make you feel cooler.
We run AC at 80 when not home and turn down to 78 when we get home. even at 78 sometimes I end up popping it up to 79 when it's 90 - 100 outside 78-79 is nice and cool. And the fact we use the celing fans in the rooms we are in I am sure is a big part of the feeling cooler than expected at that temp. I have my "own personal summers" and still it works fine.
Cane...

I never said I agree with al gore or anything of the nature...I was pointing out simple facts to people posting on here that WE are the cause of GW...ie...if you are posting on here...well you get the point. My point was simple... unless you give up EVERYTHING...don't preach it on a computer blog because they as well are contributors...that is all. I do believe that we could all be more aware, but don't say that it is modern tech doing it...without the modern tech...we wouldn't be here...we would have all died out from typhoid, small pox, polio, no penacillian, etc...that's all...not saying anything bad bout anyone or anything... =)
Quoting Maighstir:


That is a stupid argument either way... Earth is 4.5 Billion years old. Even if we can go back 600,000 years and track the earth's climate with ice core samples we only have data on the earth's climate for .0015% of her total existance.

Can you show me a scientist that will run on data with a .0015% sample size. Just sayin.


Al will, oh thats right, he isnt a scientist
306. JRRP
93L
00 GMT 09/19/08 12.9N 59.8W 20 1010 Invest
12 GMT 09/19/08 13.3N 63.5W 20 1010 Invest
18 GMT 09/19/08 13.3N 64.4W 25 1010 Invest
Quoting 7544:


link please tia

GFDL Link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008091912-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation

HWRF LINK:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008091912-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Cane...

I never said I agree with al gore or anything of the nature...I was pointing out simple facts to people posting on here that WE are the cause of GW...ie...if you are posting on here...well you get the point. My point was simple... unless you give up EVERYTHING...don't preach it on a computer blog because they as well are contributors...that is all. I do believe that we could all be more aware, but don't say that it is modern tech doing it...without the modern tech...we wouldn't be here...we would have all died out from typhoid, small pox, polio, no penacillian, etc...that's all...not saying anything bad bout anyone or anything... =)


So Mr Gore would be the worst of all hypocrites due to the fact he invented the internet? LMAO
309. 7544
Quoting PcolaDan:


GFDL 12Z

HWRF 12Z


Both show nothing happening.


thats why i ask for the link from that post sure dont see any 99k there lol
some companies have begun to use the methane gas from dumps and cow doodies to power them with electricity...so....since we need more cows to feed more people, let's use their poop to make electricity...
Looks can be misleading at times like these
Link
Quoting NEwxguy:
most of the models are backing off the cyclogenesis of the se coast end of next week


The computer models seems to be strenghthening the subtropical anticyclones each run. This may be due to the Madden Julian Oscillation move in. The MJO cause anomalous vertical motion in the air near the intertropical convergence zone or equatorial trough. As a result, air pressure will decrease further in the tropical regions and increase in the subtropical reasons. This will intensify the hadley cell circulation, which will increase the pressure difference between tropical and subtropical areas.

Please note that rising air from equator (or any place that is heated more than anywhere else during certain times of the year)converges, rise, condense, diverges,sink near 30 degrees north. This why the primary anticyclones are located in the subtropical regions.


This is my theory that the Madden Julian Oscillation may enhance Hadley cell circulation at various parts of the earth.


Do you guys think it is plausible?
Quoting keywestbrat:
if you think about it a dinasour is way bigger than a cow hehehe
And a hypothisis is born... Dinosaurs tooted themself into extension... Quick write a grant!
calling MUSC tomorrow to see about a grant to see if the dino's went extint due to their poop and farts....
Quoting 7544:


thats why i ask for the link from that post sure dont see any 99k there lol


GFDL 00Z

These both showed strengthening, just 12 hrs ago.

HWRF 00Z
curent ice concentrations~ notice none of it, including the south pole where it is winter has 99-100% concentration anymore.




credit MMAB/NOAA
imagining now....

the cavemen walking thru a field going dino tipping and stepping in a pile of it barefoot...

ROFLMAO
Quoting 7544:


thats why i ask for the link from that post sure dont see any 99k there lol

Here are the links for the 00Z showing a major hurricane North of the islands in 126 hours.
GFDL Link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008091912-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation

HWRF LINK:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008091912-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation
321. 7544
Quoting PcolaDan:


GFDL 00Z

These both showed strengthening, just 12 hrs ago.

HWRF 00Z


thanks i did see that but now the new runs shows nothing lol that was fast we have to see the next run thanks again
315. someone already beat you to it...

Link
Quoting PcolaDan:


Because they are ugly?? :)

Ugly and expensive.
I have a question. Does the Navy have forecasting capability beyond the National Weather Service?

The reason I ask is because my daughter is a Naval Air School trainee stationed at Pensacola. During a conversation about Ike, she called me early last week (Tuesday I think) and stated that they had all been told Ike would hit Galveston. This was at least 2 days before the NWS projected track for Ike moved above Matagorda Bay.

Also, with each of the previous storms of the season, the calls of the Brass there at the Naval Air Station in Pensacola were on the money--and prior to landfall calls by the NWS.

This has me wondering...especially, the call on Ike.

Thanks.
lol pearl...

guess i do my part then...always put baking soda in beans when i cook em...stops the toots! OMG....just give the cows baking soda in their water and all of our problems are solved...either that or bag their butts and turn it into electricity...
Quoting tiggeriffic:
some companies have begun to use the methane gas from dumps and cow doodies to power them with electricity...so....since we need more cows to feed more people, let's use their poop to make electricity...
There are scientist in Argentina working on a grass hybrid to make it better digestable, cow antacids and other things to help lower the effect of the first stomic (bateria in the first stomic is apperently the main culprit for the cow issue) but of course Methan powered companies (and homes) have enough lit on them that they even show up in the ReMax ads...
I think the biggest thing in all of it and the "energy plan" debates is giving huge tax cuts to the Oil companies as part of the "package" is thowing the fox in the hen house with a knife and fork.
Well, appears 'ole 93 is doing a tad bit of strenthening. Some said it was going poof, but may survive to menace someone but hopefully just the fish.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
imagining now....

the cavemen walking thru a field going dino tipping and stepping in a pile of it barefoot...

ROFLMAO
tiger your killing me here
lolololol
Celia...

I may be a little prejudice on that point as I am from a Navy family...thing we were told when we were out to sea (as well as my father, brothers, etc), Navy always knows where a storm is and where it is going....that way, we don't sink a ship and kill thousands at one time.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
lol pearl...

guess i do my part then...always put baking soda in beans when i cook em...stops the toots! OMG....just give the cows baking soda in their water and all of our problems are solved...either that or bag their butts and turn it into electricity...
wow Tigg - learn something new every day - baking soda....will have to try that ....you are too funny today.
sorry stpete...had to do it...sometimes you have to throw humor into the mix to lighten it up enuf for the big stuff to be able to swallow
be careful when adding the baking soda tho... first the beans have to be at least half cooked, but most of all, it adds sodium (salt) as well, do not salt until the baking soda is done, and STIR, they will foam up fast...the more foam, the more farts you saved =)
Quoting tiggeriffic:
be careful when adding the baking soda tho... first the beans have to be at least half cooked, but most of all, it adds sodium (salt) as well, do not salt until the baking soda is done, and STIR, they will foam up fast...the more foam, the more farts you saved =)
ROTFL
Quoting TheMom:
And a hypothisis is born... Dinosaurs tooted themself into extension... Quick write a grant!

Definitely laughing out loud!
tigger,
my boss just came down the hall wondering what was so funny!
336. Inyo
Don't be ridiculous. No one reasonable is asking you to do those things. All we are asking is for the government and private sector to increase research into new sources of energy that don't require oil. I see that the reason you are angry about AGW is beacuse you are afraid dealing with it will discomfort you. I am so sorry that you are worried about losing your H2 - but the fact is, if we are smart, we don't have to give up our lifestyle, just modify it. I don't know what 'underservong species' means, what i think is we are an adaptable species that needs to do what we do best: invent new ways to live and improve our lives through science and technology. The oil age isn't the end point of our civilization. 100 years ago too much horse poop was in the streets of every city, disease was spreading, etc, we needed to rely on something other than horses. So, someone invented cars... and the streets are mostly poop free. Well, now the gas cars are pooping up our atmosphere, so to speak, it's time to move on to the next thing.

Drilling, for the most part, is a scam. I'm sure they will drill the Gulf, one way or another, because big oil has thrown so much money into it. Your people will drill, ruin the fishery, and I guarantee in 10 years gas will still cost 6 or 7 dollars a gallon if not more. That's right, it will be 10 years before the drilling even makes a difference. I work on a piece of land where oil drilling is happening.. it is a fascinating process but they have been going after oil for a year or so here and haven't yet gotten to it.. this is on land next to a major road. Think about doing this under 400 feet of water. I don't believe the drilling will do a bit to help anyone, other than the stockholders of Exxon.

Quoting CaneHunter031472:



Ok why dont you start by giving us an example, Turn off all of your lights at home queit cooking quit driving do not use electricity forget abot the heaters or air conditioning as a matter of fact go and join the Amish and live in the 18 century again. Is this what this is all about anyway? we are underservong species according to you all and we need to go back to 18 th century huts. Or maybe you already designed the next 100 percent efficient hydrogen cell vehicles and you in your infinte wisdom have discovered the secrets of cold fusion right and Pooofff!! Tomorrow all of humanity including thisrd world countries will miraculously stop using oil right. Please sir back to reality ok it will take a while for this to happen. We need to drill now and develop the technology so that in the future it will be feasible for us to get out of oil quit dreaming you are destroying your country don't you understand!!! what do you think the rest of the world is as concerned as you are no the are 10 times worse than us and if you even complain they will silence you so love the USA.
Quoting~ Tigger
but EVERYONE that is posting on ANY blog is contributing to GW...you cannot preach it untill you give up your computers and modern way of life and live like the pioneers


There are reasonably priced solar chargers for laptop PCs... Okay I don't have one yet but that's because I'm tackling things that use more than my computer this year & the computer will need upgraded soon enough by then some of the upgrades will have payed for themselves & I'll have extra for a kickin laptop .. No hurt in talking about it, sharing how we've cut our energy costs & improved our lives.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
be careful when adding the baking soda tho... first the beans have to be at least half cooked, but most of all, it adds sodium (salt) as well, do not salt until the baking soda is done, and STIR, they will foam up fast...the more foam, the more farts you saved =)
You are a hot mess!
sorry hurricajun...it is FRIDAY!!!!! I can't help myself today...slap happy from the entire week and in rare form...not so sure hubby will find me as funny as you all today...=P
332. but all that methane and CO2 is going into the atmosphere! LOL
341. Inyo
Quoting Maighstir:


That is a stupid argument either way... Earth is 4.5 Billion years old. Even if we can go back 600,000 years and track the earth's climate with ice core samples we only have data on the earth's climate for .0015% of her total existance.

Can you show me a scientist that will run on data with a .0015% sample size. Just sayin.


Yeah, any ecologist. I do plant surveys and vegetation mapping, and do you think I count every shrub in California? Of course not... we work with the data we have. There is a lot of evidence that we are warming the climate, and waiting around for 'more data' is not going to do any good. There are probably a few billion oak trees in California.. if i see 3000 of them scattered throughout the state and notice they all are dying of Sudden Oak Death, it's pretty safe to assume Sudden Oak Death is affecting oaks, rather than wait to check every last oak.
Tigg: I guess the fun's over - the serious ones are back. LOL
LOL @ 342. buzzkill, dude! :)
skye...

I wasn't referring to you by any means...it was last page or 2 pages ago...I too do what I can so that I feel comfortable by blogging and what not...I hang clothes out, regulate my thermostat, don't use hot water in my washer, recycle, buy in bulk so that the container I purchase is twice as much as two small ones but because of the shape and what not, it uses less plastic or glass than several small ones, etc, solar is great as is wind etc...but was referring to those who preach it but don't live it.
Correct me if I am wrong.. but isn't GW a taboo subject on here? I know all the of the chat about it on here has me only checking in periodically. I have no interest in hearing both sides postulations of the subject, especially in here.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Correct me if I am wrong.. but isn't GW a taboo subject on here? I know all the of the chat about it on here has me only checking in periodically. I have no interest in hearing both sides postulations of the subject, especially in here.


I'll give an AMEN to that.
ok...gotta bounce for a bit...dog needs to go out and create some methane gas....
348. Inyo
Who actually preaches disassembling technology and going back to a pre-industrial lifestyle? I didnt see any posts saying that on here. People are making this stuff up.
Hi, all.
Just checked the NHC and it's giving 93L a medium chance now -- at least I think I read that correctly. Certainly inflated my stomach acids. and is it just my imagination or does that splotch around 15W 8 N already have circulation?
Quoting Inyo:


they all are dying of Sudden Oak Death, it's pretty safe to assume Sudden Oak Death is affecting oaks, rather than wait to check every last oak.
Did you just make that up? I mean I do think you are being overbearingly boorish and there are other ways to give information that does not make you come across as a condensing little twit that is in his 3rd year internship and bound to save the world single handedly... but I really want to know if that is real since will be a cool thing to have DS look up since he wants to be a botanist specializing in taxonomy.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Correct me if I am wrong.. but isn't GW a taboo subject on here? I know all the of the chat about it on here has me only checking in periodically. I have no interest in hearing both sides postulations of the subject, especially in here.
Dr. Masters started it...... ;-)
Quoting TheMom:
Dr. Masters started it...... ;-)


Hmmmphh.. from Mom to boot (Mom saying to follow)
If he jumped off a bridge.. would you jump to?
Quoting tiggeriffic:
Celia...

I may be a little prejudice on that point as I am from a Navy family...thing we were told when we were out to sea (as well as my father, brothers, etc), Navy always knows where a storm is and where it is going....that way, we don't sink a ship and kill thousands at one time.


Then the question begs to be asked, If the Navy can call landfall that precisely days in advance, why doesn't the NWS?

Looking at the information available on the unclassified Navy sites pertaining to weather, currents, waves, etc., one gets an inkling of the scope of what factors they monitor. This has lead me to ponder what is available on the classified sites.

In the end though, if the Navy has the ability to forecast landfall of a hurricane with such accuracy--earlier than the NWS, shouldn't that information be used to prevent the deaths of US Civilians in the area of the landfall?
354. Inyo
Quoting TheMom:
Did you just make that up? I mean I do think you are being overbearingly boorish and there are other ways to give information that does not make you come across as a condensing little twit that is in his 3rd year internship and bound to save the world single handedly... but I really want to know if that is real since will be a cool thing to have DS look up since he wants to be a botanist specializing in taxonomy.


Sudden Oak Death is real, it isn't actually killing all of the oaks, but it killed a lot of Coast Live Oak and Tanoak between Big Sur and Mendoncino, or so. Maybe it wasn't the best example to use.

As for being boorish.. not sure about that. I don't think I was condescending anyone except the oil companies. It does disurb me that so many people think drilling for oil is going to save our country, but oh well, i guess that's inevitable.
355. Inyo
Also Sudden Oak Death has little to do with the taxonomy of the oaks... the best place to start with Taxonomy is to find a good school with an actual botany program (which isn't easy) or spend time at herbariums. All my resources relate to California so if you aren't there, I don't have more specific info.
93l got to get over carb first
before it fires up
from the Houston Comical....figures much lower than I would have guessed...

Onshore insured loss estimate: $8B-$12B
New tropical update...Link
Quoting Orcasystems:
Correct me if I am wrong.. but isn't GW a taboo subject on here? I know all the of the chat about it on here has me only checking in periodically. I have no interest in hearing both sides postulations of the subject, especially in here.
Orca, you know this happens when the tropics are slow. LOL
Quoting TheMom:
Did you just make that up? I mean I do think you are being
overbearingly boorish and there are other ways to give information that
does not make you come across as a condensing little twit that is in
his 3rd year internship and bound to save the world single handedly...
but I really want to know if that is real since will be a cool thing to
have DS look up since he wants to be a botanist specializing in
taxonomy.
I have read about it and believe he is correct on the Oak disease.
Orcasystems

LOL!! Doc started it :P :P
362. Inyo
What is a 3rd year internship anyway?
Quoting TheMom:
And a hypothisis is born... Dinosaurs tooted themself into extension... Quick write a grant!
This is where politics meets science and ignores history. There has been many times in history when the ice has been thinner/thicker, the climate hotter/colder and the seas higher/lower. The subject is GW is boring, based on the thinnest snapshot of time with idiots comparing this year to last year and coming up with theories. What amazes me is people subscribe to this irrational BS and claim to be Eco Heroes.

Quoting TheMom:
Dr. Masters started it...... ;-)
See were watching newly placed on Orange Alert 93L, and Pre-94L off Africa. Kyle and Laura?
Quoting Inyo:


Sudden Oak Death is real
As for being boorish.. not sure about that. I don't think I was condescending anyone except the oil companies. It does disurb me that so many people think drilling for oil is going to save our country, but oh well, i guess that's inevitable.
I think the majority of people here do not agree that more offshore drilling is going to help the economy or be a good thing for the environment but many that are not as ecologically advanced as say surfmom are trying to give rational examples of ways to help our earth and their sound advice is pushed out with the overly aggressive responses you are giving. In simple terms you are already preaching to the choir so flicking their noses is not a good way to get your point across. And yes I know taxonomy is not about the diseases but he is only 9 so he may decide tomorrow that the study of disease in plants is more interesting that identifying new/undiscovered species so thanks for the info I'll have him look it up and talk more about that side of things.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
See were watching newly placed on Orange Alert 93L, and Pre-94L off Africa. Kyle and Laura?
Ah, back to the tropics happily - GW growing old as you'll never see agreement.
Quoting Inyo:
What is a 3rd year internship anyway?
When you are in your 3rd year of study and you do your internship...
themom, that was really funny :)
Quoting keywestbrat:
themom, that was really funny :)
Thanks I was just feeding Tigger material...
371. Inyo
Quoting TheMom:
I think the majority of people here do not agree that more offshore drilling is going to help the economy or be a good thing for the environment but many that are not as ecologically advanced as say surfmom are trying to give rational examples of ways to help our earth and their sound advice is pushed out with the overly aggressive responses you are giving. In simple terms you are already preaching to the choir so flicking their noses is not a good way to get your point across. And yes I know taxonomy is not about the diseases but he is only 9 so he may decide tomorrow that the study of disease in plants is more interesting that identifying new/undiscovered species so thanks for the info I'll have him look it up and talk more about that side of things.


Well, I was responding to someone who brought up the whole 'drill now' thing. and I didn't know your son (?) was 9, or i would have given a bit more useful info, I'd say its great that someone of that age is showing interest in botany and I'd say the best way to encourage it is to get him outside looking at plants, but I am guessing you already do that. Sorry if my posts were too overbearing, I just get frustrated with the flat out GW denialists, I agree that for everyone else who is skeptical and just wants to do the right thing for the country/world, the answer is not yelling/lecturing/angry posts but just education on little ways to make the world better. But that's just me.
Tropical Cyclone Warning #7 (1800z 19SEPT)
======================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Hagupit (996 hPa) located near 13.4N 131.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
==============
160 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.3N 127.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0N 126.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.4N 124.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
Quoting JupiterFL:

Ugly and expensive.


If you do the math..in the long run you come out ahead -- plus you are self-sufficient. Although, when we did it, things were less expensive, and my mate was able to do alot of the tying in.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #93
3:00 AM JST September 20 2008
==========================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY TWO TYPHOON IN SEAS SOUTH OF JAPAN

At 3:00 AM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Sinlaku (990 hPa) located near 34.3N 139.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 16 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM east from the center
60 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 35.6N 147.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 36.6N 154.2E - (EXTRATROPICAL)
Tigger~ All good. You are to a clothesline how I am about eating local on WU:)

The funnest part about these debates on Masters' blog for me has become...to see who actually reads Dr Masters' entrys... Why ya'll talkin GW all a sudden? lol.

I'm back to the tropics..93L looks to have took a hit during blackout lastnight.
Hiya Gang
Quoting FLDART1:
Hiya Gang
Afternoon!
Looks like were gonna be running escort for Stormjunkie
49. WXfreq

Been a while since this was posted - but I just got back and am catching up.

My response was aimed at those making the video - not at you. Though I can see where it could be taken that way. My apologies for not making that clearer.

Capt in my handle = Holder of a USCG Merchant Marine Officer License. But ex-military, but I wasn't an officer.

And as for apologizing to me - no need. No harm, no foul. Whenever I read something in a forum like this I always try very hard to keep in mind that I cannot see the person, nor can I hear their tone, etc. and often the true intent of a post is lost because of that. (How often do we see someone post a follow-up to say 'woah, I was joking!' It happens.)

Have a great afternoon. :-)
381. 996tt
Quoting Inyo:
Also Sudden Oak Death has little to do with the taxonomy of the oaks... the best place to start with Taxonomy is to find a good school with an actual botany program (which isn't easy) or spend time at herbariums. All my resources relate to California so if you aren't there, I don't have more specific info.


Sudden oak death . . . chainsaw.
Quoting FLDART1:
Looks like were gonna be running escort for Stormjunkie


How's everything going up there?
First time poster . Although weather isn't my field, living in FL it keeps my attention during storm season . There's more good information here than a year of TWC .Thanks to all of you for helping me better understand the weather that impacts us all. Now energy and fuel are my main interests, and I do as much reading and some testing on my own . (We have our own engine and transmission dynos). First off, we ain't gonna get off oil in our, or our children's lifetimes. Just look around you, from that keyboard you're tapping, to the shoes on yer lil feet .. It's all oil .Offshore and Northshore drilling will produce much sooner than the 10 years thrown out by political folks for political reasons. Most renewables are way down the line , or now being found to be unviable , a gallon of corn derived ethanol takes almost as much energy input as is derived from the corn.The rise in farm chemicals(oil derived for the most part)as well as equipment fuel is making ethanol even more non cost effective, not to mention the amount of food removed from the food chain.Hydrogen has several drawbacks(not counting riding around with a high pressure gas cylinder in your trunk (3000PSI))Same deal with the CNG being touted by T Boone Pickens and the guy that's the largest gas supplier in the US. Both add a lot to the cost of a vehicle . Hydrogen causes a problem called hydrogen enbrittlement in iron and steel used in the hot part of engines. Engineering costs as well as manufacturing costs of engines to resist this will be really steep. The cost of converting existing vehicles to either is more than the value of most vehicles on the road.(3,000 in parts and at least 2000 in labor to convert.) and that's lowballing it. Who knows what the mentioned in the tv ad home refill setup for CNC would cost . My best bet for a current alternative vehicle is propane. Low vapor pressure means it's compressable and converts to liquid at a fairly low pressure.More BTUs per pound of total weight (tank and gas) Same as the tank on your grill, or the ones on forklifts at home depot.It's much cleaner than gasoline.Conversions are less than a grand,and the parts are available. It's also a byproduct of oil refining. Wind, solar , geothermal , tidal turbines and all that , are great ideas, but for the most part down the road aways. Like it or not, for now it's oil. Let's at least keep the money here. Better one of our sons getting a paycheck than some Arab despot. Drill here, drill now.
Quoting FLDART1:
Hiya Gang
G'day
Quoting conchygirl:
Orca, you know this happens when the tropics are slow. LOL


Agreed.. just no GW
Its like talking politics or religion.. no winners
re: FLDART1 Looks like were gonna be running escort for Stormjunkie


Bless You, Dears! jo
387. IMA
Quoting FLDART1:
Looks like were gonna be running escort for Stormjunkie
'afternoon. That's awesome! Wanna do it for me, too? To the Montgomery Co Animal Shelter? lol You be careful and take care of yourself, too. Thanks for helping my fellow Texans, you're appreciated!
Not much change actually
Does anyone have a link to maps or list that show the cities affected by IKE? Trying to put a list together of our customers in that area and I am geographically challenged. Thanks
G
Quoting FLDART1:
Looks like were gonna be running escort for Stormjunkie


Interesting...
391. IMA
385. Orcasystems Amen! Ooops, that religion ;) -- I concur!
"In simple terms you are already preaching to the choir so flicking their noses is not a good way to get your point across"

Yeah but aside from the right or wrong of GW which I don't think is appropriate for this forum, I personally think if Al Gore had been elected, the country and the world would be much much better off - and it irritates me that we can't keep self congratulating condescending approval-seeking GW deniers from making political comments about GW believers either.

"Idiots" for example at 364 by bollidear

Tropic's are picking up now, stop with the political stuff.
Orca,this is usually the conversation for the winter,a little early to get this going.It almost makes one want to get a TC going,but I won't say that.
395. IMA
Quoting RMM34667:
Does anyone have a link to maps or list that show the cities affected by IKE? Trying to put a list together of our customers in that area and I am geographically challenged. Thanks
How quickly do you need it? Can probably get it from hubby.
Quoting FLDART1:
Not much change actually
Did you add your pics to your WU account? I didn't get to see them yesterday. Great to know the WU express has some company on the way in.
run the vis. loop on 93 the system is fighting some strong wind shear.When it finds a place look for development
Quoting Orcasystems:


Agreed.. just no GW
Its like talking politics or religion.. no winners


Come on Orca, I have been coming here for 4 years and We are in complete harmony with the tropics? ha ha ha, by the way, thanks to you and Zoo for all you do!!!
399. IMA
Quoting greentortuloni:
...which I don't think is appropriate for this forum, I personally think if Al Gore had been elected, the country and the world would be much much better off...


oh, but that is appropriate for this forum? Now that is laughable.

Uh, oh! There's that ugly iv steroid-rage comin' out again! Don't mess w/a Texan with Ike-rage/roid-rage/PMS! LOL

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.0 63.6 275./ 8.9
6 12.9 63.7 240./ 1.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropic's are picking up now, stop with the political stuff.


You're right we have to pick our pom poms and cheer on this next storm
Orca - benevolent peacekeeper - Big Smile
Quoting WxLogic:
G

Interesting...


Interesting how?
just doesn't make sense.. upgrade it to Moderate and the model they release has it dissipate after six hours.. o_o;
Its not politics and the Doc discussed in HIS BLOG!
Quoting IMA:
How quickly do you need it? Can probably get it from hubby.


No rush.. Trying to pull all the TX and LA customers now.. then will go try to identify who might have been affected and reach out to them. thanks!!
Quoting Maighstir:


You're right we have to pick our pom poms and cheer on this next storm


Better than talking about Global warming and blaming Bush for it ect. Can't control weather, another storm is coming, even though were still tired from the Destruction of Galveston, the tropic's won't wait.
Yup. Sorry. Don't contribure much so should keep my mouth shut anyway on y'alls forum.

However, i asked this earlier and didn't get an answer because it was pretty busy: anyone know how the hurricanes affect the dead spots in the gulf? Just curious if anyone knows any good resources
Quoting Maighstir:


You're right we have to pick our pom poms and cheer on this next storm


No cheering from this girl - I'm 'caned out.... Ike was enough storm for a season. Don't care if I have to drive over to the other coast. If there is a Kyle -- I hope he's a mellow fellow -- Ike's rough play stung everyone --
345. Orcasystems

The Good DR. started it
Sinlaku on Japan's radar.
Yup, at this point I'd rather surf a cold front swell IN a wetsuit --

Although I am getting ready to clean off the old wax on the board and set it up.....conflicted
Quoting surfmom:


No cheering from this girl - I'm 'caned out.... Ike was enough storm for a season. Don't care if I have to drive over to the other coast. If there is a Kyle -- I hope he's a mellow fellow -- Ike's rough play stung everyone --
AMEN!
Quoting FLDART1:


Interesting how?


Interesting... in the sense that I would have though StormJunkie was working with other Organizations to collect/combine the funds, but it seems is all him.
Quoting greentortuloni:
"In simple terms you are already preaching to the choir so flicking their noses is not a good way to get your point across"

Yeah but aside from the right or wrong of GW which I don't think is appropriate for this forum, I personally think if Al Gore had been elected, the country and the world would be much much better off - and it irritates me that we can't keep self congratulating condescending approval-seeking GW deniers from making political comments about GW believers either.

"Idiots" for example at 364 by bollidear

thats crap, if he was electected it's not the enviroment he would care about, it cause he wasn't electected he had to focus on something else to make a buck, pleeeeese
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Better than talking about Global warming and blaming Bush for it ect. Can't control weather, another storm is coming, even though were still tired from the Destruction of Galveston, the tropic's won't wait.


I think the whole man made glowing warming thing is a hoax. We have 5 other planets in the solar system with increased temps so unless aliens have SUVs and cows then I would say the sun is the main culprit.

I guess I could say mea culpa, and buy off my SURF sin.....www.portlight.org
415. keywestbrat "thats crap, if he was electected it's not the enviroment he would care about, it cause he wasn't electected he had to focus on something else to make a buck, pleeeeese"

check the debates and speeches during hte election. also check his record. i doubt he needs a buck.
I.m Catholic....pennance can ceratinly be purchased...
He is working with several other organizations. We are escorting his truckload personally.
Quoting FLDART1:br /
You have to upload them to your WU account so even us firewalled peeps can see.... :-(

How many trips you done now? Any updates to share on what you are hearing from the people?
423. IMA
406. RMM34667 O.K. Sent you WU mail, will check for reply after walking/feeding dogs :)
Quoting Maighstir:


You're right we have to pick our pom poms and cheer on this next storm


ummmm what?????
More rumbles in the ACLU jungle.
CYA
Quoting IMA:


oh, but that is appropriate for this forum? Now that is laughable.

Uh, oh! There's that ugly iv steroid-rage comin' out again! Don't mess w/a Texan with Ike-rage/roid-rage/PMS! LOL
well it looks like you are always smiling :)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #93
3:00 AM JST September 20 2008
==========================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY TWO TYPHOON IN SEAS SOUTH OF JAPAN

At 3:00 AM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Sinlaku (990 hPa) located near 34.3N 139.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 16 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM east from the center
60 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 35.6N 147.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 36.6N 154.2E - (EXTRATROPICAL)


my son lives in Okinawa. Before Ike hit he called because he'd noticed we live on about the same lattitude on different sides of the planet and we were both about to get hit by big storms. Funny world.
ok thanks i'll try that. Not much has changed thus far in the areas that were heading to. Spoke with Bridge City Fire Department about an hour ago. Still not a lot of assistance coming in yet.
Quoting OceanMoan:


ummmm what?????


I was being sarcastic cause Cyberteddy likes to see storms develop into monsters...

She got mad at me one time when I suggested a storm was weakening from shear..
Is seems that after every disaster (hurricanes specifically) we here the same complaints... not enough supplies, relief is to slow and unorganized, etc. While I agree that there is a certain amount of personal resposibility for individuals that live in coastal communities (like myself), I believe that the local governments in these communities could also be more proactive. Most coastal community municipalties are quite lucrative. These municipalities should stockpile diaster relief supplies, i.e. water, MREs, clothing, personal hygene, and medical suppplies enough to properlay aid the residents of the municipality in the event of a disaster. This would ensure the relief was at ground zero immediately and allow state and federal diasaster relief efforts time to mobilize. Just a thought...
green~ I've looked into the hurricanes effects on the dead zones... How conflicting. One camp. Hurricane cools it so the dead zone recovers. Other camp any 'cane big enough to cool things enough is gonna cause enough oil/hazardous spills & pesdicide/fertilizer run off to add to the dead zone.
Quoting RMM34667:
Does anyone have a link to maps or list that show the cities affected by IKE? Trying to put a list together of our customers in that area and I am geographically challenged. Thanks


Just got off the phone with a customer in Columbus. He sounded just like the people in Houston -- no power, tree limbs everywhere. Said people were amazed because they had 75-80 mph winds but no clouds; the sun was shining.
433. IMA
426. keywestbrat In between rages, yep! LOL Hey, life's too short -- I choose mostly smiles & laughter with only brief interruptions for tears, frowns, or anger.

My dogs are going to chew through the computer cords if I don't run (o.k., hobble -- I don't run anywhere). Have a great afternoon, y'all. BBL
Quoting greentortuloni:
415. keywestbrat "thats crap, if he was electected it's not the enviroment he would care about, it cause he wasn't electected he had to focus on something else to make a buck, pleeeeese"

check the debates and speeches during hte election. also check his record. i doubt he needs a buck.
whatever
93l looking okay and it can be threating anywhere from the Bahamas all the way to Yucatan. If development occurs.
436. 996tt
Quoting IMA:
426. keywestbrat In between rages, yep! LOL Hey, life's too short -- I choose mostly smiles & laughter with only brief interruptions for tears, frowns, or anger.

My dogs are going to chew through the computer cords if I don't run (o.k., hobble -- I don't run anywhere). Have a great afternoon, y'all. BBL


Litium.
431. Skyepony - thanks.

I was hoping the waves and the upwelling (and presumable somewhere downwelling) would help to circulate and oxidate the water. I ahdn't considered the pollution runoff.
FLDART1, how many hours will you be on the road from Carleston to Houston 18-20?
439. 996tt
I really do not want to be morbid, but I am curious if death toll stabilized or went haywire in Galveston area. Did most people evacuate from those real low lying areas that were completely devastated or is the jury still out on their location.

Although we sure could use a swell here, I am glad to see the tropics quiet.
434. keywestbrat "so what if he doesnt need a buck I guess spotlight is more what i was getting at"

or else he had a cause he believed in and chose the best way he knew to act.

anyway, gotta get back to work so won't clog the blog anymore.
enough with the politics,and ike is done, poof, dead!!!!! Kyle is almost here and he needs some attn!!!!!!!!!! I am praying for all of the victims of ike, seing as i lost my house for 2 yrs after wilma!
See NHC raised 93L to medium potential. What has changed?
Surfmom,
I agree, I am tired of H canes too. Ike was enough....
Quoting Maighstir:


I was being sarcastic cause Cyberteddy likes to see storms develop into monsters...

She got mad at me one time when I suggested a storm was weakening from shear..


Ok, LOL but now I am picturing you wearing a cheerleader outfit with a big WU on the front.
Quoting OceanMoan:


Ok, LOL but now I am picturing you wearing a cheerleader outfit with a big WU on the front.
If you start imagining him in pigtails ala Jim Carey that's where I draw the line...
We need a global warming rant ignore button...for both sides.

I'm not sure what 93L is up to but it doesn't look like much to me right now. Just a bunch of thunderstorms. What am I missing?
Quoting greentortuloni:
415.

check the debates and speeches during hte election. also check his record. i doubt he needs a buck.


Certainly not short of a $ or two. Goes almost everywhere by private jet and has a new 100' boat. Guess he'll be looking for some carbon credits to buy as well!
Quoting centex:
See NHC raised 93L to medium potential. What has changed?
See Storm's blog looks like shear is going to be relaxed over the short term and there seems to be some more convection so might be why?
Quoting TheMom:
See Storm's blog looks like shear is going to be relaxed over the short term and there seems to be some more convection so might be why?
I thought storm said sheer would remain the same than increase. Comments that sound like poof to me. Anyway JM said we should watch this wave.
Ahhhh Doc has a new blog up....
Dang 6 hours later and we're still arguing about global warming? Look what you did Dr. Masters. ;-)

I guess it's a weatherish topic so it's still better than most arguments on here.
Quoting TheMom:
Did you just make that up? I mean I do think you are being overbearingly boorish and there are other ways to give information that does not make you come across as a condensing little twit that is in his 3rd year internship and bound to save the world single handedly... but I really want to know if that is real since will be a cool thing to have DS look up since he wants to be a botanist specializing in taxonomy.
you know he may be on to something two Oaks were cut down on our block they just suddenly died over two years the tree botanist said it's some new kind of disease starting to affect Oaks, but they still can't seem to put their finger on it
If a storm form in the coast of Africa the next couples of days it is likely until october like 1998,2000,2003 and 2007(see on the hurricane archive).
I am also a bit surprised as to the NHC "upgrade" to medium potential on 93L when I've been seeing lots of shear today, that huge upper level low in the mid-Atlantic still sucking away at it, and don't really see much westward movement at all....Even if the shear does lower a bit, it will have to get away from the influence of that ULL and I think it's looking worse right now than it did this morning...........
455. 786
MANNN, sometimes I can't believe what I read on this blog..firstly the amount of crap being discussed on a tropica blog is unfortunate when there is a system in the Caribbean...secondly I thought we have learnt already..go back to the previous blogs and you will see everyone saying Dolly was dead when she was an invest, Gustav was dead when he was an invest so why on earth should anyone believe this one is dead when its going into the hottest waters of the Atlantic and shear is relaxing. This could be a dangerous system and it will not go north of DR it is not mathematically possible (just like everyone was saying Gustav was going N of DR) unless it goes NW now and it is going W. I think this will go through the NW Caribbean and may get into the N. gulf. And I do think this one will be named.
al god doesn't need to be president to change things. he could have done some good with all that carbon credit money, but yet to see anything from him. the world goes through changes every 400,000 years or so. no one can change or stop that but the good lord above. al god is a joke!!! he needs to get real footage and stop using hollywood movies to scare people into giving him money. ALL FACTS!!!
Quoting presslord:
I.m Catholic....pennance can ceratinly be purchased...


Press; don’t think you would have to give over a buck!:)
Quoting 786:
MANNN, sometimes I can't believe what I read on this blog..firstly the amount of crap being discussed on a tropica blog is unfortunate when there is a system in the Caribbean...secondly I thought we have learnt already..go back to the previous blogs and you will see everyone saying Dolly was dead when she was an invest, Gustav was dead when he was an invest so why on earth should anyone believe this one is dead when its going into the hottest waters of the Atlantic and shear is relaxing. This could be a dangerous system and it will not go north of DR it is not mathematically possible (just like everyone was saying Gustav was going N of DR) unless it goes NW now and it is going W. I think this will go through the NW Caribbean and may get into the N. gulf. And I do think this one will be named.


Absolutely agree with you on this issue, this systeme will be Kyle some where between saturday in sunday.... hope he will remain a weak Tropical Storm to the caribean ..... but hope is out of question here ..... It's just fluid dynamics
Quoting presslord:
I.m Catholic....pennance can ceratinly be purchased...


Oh thank goodness, sigh of relief, "cha-ching, cha ching" www.portlight.org ....hmmmm "cha-ching!
ROTFL
A note about Ike we found a half a fishing pole and part of a bait bucket in our yard when we got home. We are pretty far inland though we did get some surge here. Dont know if they came in on the surge or were blown in. It was just strange. We didnt have any damage this time. But our neighbors two doors down lost everything. As did so many others. We got a long way to go but we'll recover. Just hope nothing else heads our way. Or anybodys way.
#431skyepony - I was wondering about that... I think that when Dolly passed through it was all good, but IKE on the other hand has turn the gulf into a cesspool. I'm hoping the wildlife is getting outta there
462. h6
bonsoir jcpoulard,

how are you doing ? As far as I know Port-au-Prince was not affected much by the 4 recent storms. But food prices must have been increasing sharply recently I guess.
And I'm still worried about the bio-hazards -- we have to trust people did their job correctly.... and what if they didn't what are the consequences--geeze... I'm wondering if we'll be able to follow a plume.... Katrina's was evident
Quoting tropics21:
you know he may be on to something two Oaks were cut down on our block
they just suddenly died over two years the tree botanist said it's some
new kind of disease starting to affect Oaks, but they still can't seem
to put their finger on it

You must be careful when having tree work done...this disease can be spread by dirty chainsaws!
Quoting h6:
bonsoir jcpoulard,

how are you doing ? As far as I know Port-au-Prince was not affected much by the 4 recent storms. But food prices must have been increasing sharply recently I guess.


Hanna give Port au Prince a severe Blow with wind gust at 65 mph some source say.... Some house have been destroy, trees and electric Pylon was down.
Port au Prince had chance because in this 4 storm all the bigest convection pass very far of the capital .... But this chance can turn at any time.
Good Evening Miss Nadia - right about the chainsaws -- not alot of people know that
Quoting 786:
...secondly I thought we have learnt already..go back to the previous blogs and you will see everyone saying Dolly was dead when she was an invest, Gustav was dead when he was an invest so why on earth


For a brief while one night, there were people saying that Gustav was falling apart and would be RIP soon. The storm was just north of Cuba at that time, if memory serves.

Considering how fast some like to pull the plug on systems, I'm kinda glad they aren't doctors. ;-)
Getting ready to sign off -- I guess I have to stop ignoring this seedling out there/93L. Could be Kyle's first pushes to life. We'll see what tomorrow morning brings. G'nite all.....

a nightlight of hope for Ike's victims www.portlight.org
Quoting surfmom:
And I'm still worried about the bio-hazards -- we have to trust people did their job correctly.... and what if they didn't what are the consequences--geeze... I'm wondering if we'll be able to follow a plume.... Katrina's was evident


Explain please?
New Blog ! New Blog !
471. h6
NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG
Quoting iluvjess:
These municipalities should stockpile diaster relief supplies, i.e. water, MREs, clothing, personal hygene, and medical suppplies enough to properlay aid the residents of the municipality in the event of a disaster.


The problem is that those supplies have to be protected FROM the disaster, and kept from going bad between disasters. And the vehicles to deliver them have to be acquired and maintained.

Each HOUSEHOLD should be maintaining their own disaster supply stuff, and have the mother wit to get out of Dodge when they are warned that they are in a "no-survival" situation.

When my aunt lived in the Florida Keys, she had a 3-week supply of no-cook edibles, water, lighting, and medication. She'd just kept rotating stock.