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Arctic sea ice at a record low again; a warmer February for the U.S. coming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on February 08, 2011

Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was the lowest on record for the month, and marked the second consecutive month a record low has been set, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Most of the missing ice was concentrated along the shores of Northeast Canada and Western Greenland. Relative to the 1979 - 2000 average, the missing ice area was about twice the size of Texas, or about 60% of the size of the Mediterranean Sea. Hudson Bay in Canada did not freeze over until mid-January, the latest freeze-up date on record, and at least a month later than average. The late freeze-up contributed to record warm winter temperatures across much of the Canadian Arctic in December and January. Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has a very interesting post on this, noting that Coral Harbor on the shores of Hudson Bay had a low temperature on January 6 that was 30°C (54°F) above average--a pretty ridiculous temperature anomaly. He quotes David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, who discussed the lack of ice near Canada's Baffin Island: "The Meteorological Service of Canada was still writing marine forecasts as of 7 January, well beyond anything we have ever done." Henson also writes:

"The extremes have been just as impressive when you look high in the atmosphere above these areas. Typically the midpoint of the atmosphere's mass--the 500-millibar (500 hPa) level--rests around 5 kilometers (3 miles) above sea level during the Arctic midwinter. In mid-December, a vast bubble of high pressure formed in the vicinity of Greenland. At the center of this high, the 500-mb surface rose to more than 5.8 kilometers, a sign of remarkably mild air below. Stu Ostro (The Weather Channel) found that this was the most extreme 500-mb anomaly anywhere on the planet in weather analyses dating back to 1948.

Farther west, a separate monster high developed over Alaska in January. According to Richard Thoman (National Weather Service, Fairbanks), the 500-mb height over both Nome and Kotzebue rose to 582 decameters (5.82 km). That's not only a January record: those are the highest values ever observed at those points outside of June, July, and August."



Figure 1. Monthly January sea ice extent for 1979 to 2011 shows a decline of 3.3% per decade. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The warm temperatures in Canada and record sea ice loss in the Arctic were also due, in part, to a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The Arctic Oscillation and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are naturally occurring pressure patterns in the Arctic and mid-latitudes. A negative AO and NAO results when we have weaker than normal low pressure over the Arctic, and weaker than normal high pressure over the Azores Islands. This fosters an easterly flow of air off the warm Atlantic Ocean into the Canadian Arctic, and also weakens the winds of the polar vortex, the ring of counter-clockwise spinning winds that encircles the Arctic. A weaker polar vortex allows cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic into eastern North America and Western Europe. Thus, the strongly negative AO and NAO the past two winters have been largely responsible for the cold and snowy winters in these regions, and exceptionally warm conditions in the Arctic. I described this pattern in more detail in my December post titled, Florida shivers; Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern is back. It is possible that Arctic sea ice loss is largely responsible for the unusual Arctic Oscillation pattern we've observed during the past two winters, as well as for the record-strength ridges of high pressure observed over Greenland and Alaska this winter. It should not surprise us that Arctic sea ice loss would be capable of causing major perturbations to Earth's weather, since it is well known that changes from average in sea surface temperatures over large regions of the ocean modify the jet stream, storm tracks, and precipitation patterns. The El Niño and La Niña patterns are prime examples of this (though the area of oceans affected by these phenomena are much larger than what we're talking about in the Arctic.) Another example: Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003, the deadliest heat wave in history with 30,000 - 50,000 deaths in Europe.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0


Figure 2. The 6-10 temperature forecast issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for an above-average chance of warm temperatures across most of the U.S. by mid-February.

A warmer forecast for February
Over the past two weeks, the Arctic Oscillation has undergone a major transition, changing from negative to positive. This means that low pressure over the Arctic has intensified, which will act to speed up the counter-clockwise spinning winds (the polar vortex.) This spin-up of the polar vortex will tend to keep cold air bottled up the Arctic, leading to more Arctic sea ice formation and warmer winter conditions over the U.S. This warm-up is reflected in the latest 6 - 10 day temperature outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (Figure 2.) Could it be the groundhog was right, and we have only three more weeks of winter left? Time will tell--we have little skill predicting what may happen to the Arctic Oscillation more than about two weeks in advance.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea Ice Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nice post Jeff...looks like the AO may trend back negative towards the end of the month.
Have a feeling the groundhog nailed it this time.
Good Morning all. Well the cold front finally made it down here to the keys and has dried out the humidity and cooled us down some. It is a lovely 69 degrees with sunny skies. The high shouldn't reach above 75 today IMO. It's a shame I have to work indoors.
It's been striking in the UK how one of the coldest Decembers on record was followed - in England and Wales, less so in Scotland - by a pretty regular mild January and February. We had below-freezing temps for days until just after Christmas - since then, only a few nights with frost (but a lot of wind and rain :-( )
Complete Update





Quoting txag91met:
Nice post Jeff...looks like the AO may trend back negative towards the end of the month.
Which could mean another big winter storm and severe weather. Why do you think it might trend back to negative.?
A temperature anomaly of 54.F? Yes, that definitely qualifies as "ridiculous". ;-) It seems fairly apparent that as we continue to pump billions of tons of GhGs into the atmosphere each year, we'll read more and more of such extreme weather patterns. To paraphrase the old saying goes, it's not nice wise to fool with Mother Nature....
That's at one location
World is a lot bigger than that one location
Sweet, more Northwest/Northeast Passage action! w00t!
Quoting Neapolitan:
A temperature anomaly of 54.F? Yes, that definitely qualifies as "ridiculous". ;-) It seems fairly apparent that as we continue to pump billions of tons of GhGs into the atmosphere each year, we'll read more and more of such extreme weather patterns. To paraphrase the old saying goes, it's not nice wise to fool with Mother Nature....


Apparently one decent-sized volcano erupting or all the cows doing their daily farting of methane does a hell of a lot more than humans when it comes to so-called greenhouse gasses. *shrug*
Arctic is able to have major temperature swings, just as Levi states
Quoting RitaEvac:
Arctic is able to have major temperature swings, just ast Levi states

True. What's most telling, however, is that more and more of those "major temperature swings" have been to the warm side of things.
Not before one more big ice and snow storm for the USA and N TX :D
Quoting Neapolitan:

True. What's most telling, however, is that more and more of those "major temperature swings" have been to the warm side of things.


True, now it's time to see how long the swings continue
It's on the warm side of things because that cold air is being dumped elsewhere around the globe into regions that are supposed to be mild.
Quoting yacoub:


Apparently one decent-sized volcano erupting or all the cows doing their daily farting of methane does a hell of a lot more than humans when it comes to so-called greenhouse gasses. *shrug*

*Shrug* away. But it would be better if you were to back up those assertions with scientific citations. While you are retrieving those, I'll tell you this:

A) The sum total of all CO2 outgassed by active volcanoes amounts to about 1/150th of anthropogenic emissions. That's less than seven parts in a thousand.

B) While bovine emissions of methane contribute a significant portion of GhGs, in no way do those emissions come close to being the leader. The highest estimates put the cow/fossil fuel ratio of contributed GhGs at roughly 1/4. A lot, but not "a hell of a lot more". (And as good a reason as any to become a vegetarian, or at least convert to grass-fed beef.)
<
Quoting Neapolitan:

*Shrug* away. But it would be better if you were to back up those assertions with scientific citations. While you are retrieving those, I'll tell you this:

A) The sum total of all CO2 outgassed by active volcanoes amounts to about 1/150th of anthropogenic emissions. That's less than seven parts in a thousand.

B) While bovine emissions of methane contribute a significant portion of GhGs, in no way do those emissions come close to being the leader. The highest estimates put the cow/fossil fuel ratio of contributed GhGs at roughly 1/4. A lot, but not "a hell of a lot more". (And as good a reason as any to become a vegetarian, or at least convert to grass-fed beef.)
Interesting post. I thought that volcanoes would crank out more GhG,s than that. Some years are much more volcanically active than others. That could change that numbers a bit.
Keep an eye on Iceland-
fresh eruption
by ClickGreen staff. Published Tue 08 Feb 2011 14:45, Last updated: 2011-02-08
Recordings show increased activity at Iceland's second largest volcano
Recordings show increased activity at Iceland's second largest volcano

Geologists on Iceland are warning of the increased risk of a fresh volcanic eruption after measuring an increased swarm of earthquakes around the island's second largest volcano.

Páll Einarsson, a professor of geophysics at the University of Iceland, says the area around Bárdarbunga is showing signs of increased activity, which provides “good reason to worry”.

He told the country's national TV broadcaster Rúv a shortage of seismometer measuring devices is making it more difficult to determine the scale and likely outcome of the current shifts.

But he said there was “every reason to worry” as the sustained earthquake tremors to the north east of the remote volcano range are the strongest recorded in recent times and there was “no doubt” the lava was rising.

The geologist complained that the lack of coverage of measuring devices means he cannot accurately detect the depth and exact location of the increased number of localised earth movements.

“This is the most active areas of the country if we look at the whole country together,” he told Rúv News. “There is no doubt that lava there is slowly growing, and the seismicity of the last few days is a sign of it.

“We need better measurements because it is difficult to determine the depth of earthquakes because it is in the middle of the country and much of the area is covered with glaciers.”

Respected volcano watcher Jón Frímann, said on his volcano watch blog: “After the Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption in the year 2010 it seems that geologists in Iceland take earthquake swarms more seriously then they did before.”

He explained the Icelandic Met Office had on Sunday warned of the increased risk of a eruption in north-west side of Vatnajökull glacier due to the high earthquake activity in the area, and added: “It is clear that only time is going to tell us if there is going to be a eruption in this area soon or not.”

The last recorded eruption of Bárdarbunga was in 1910, although volcanologists believe its last major eruption occurred in 1477 when it produced a large ash and pumice fall-out. It also produced the largest known lava flow during the past 10,000 years on earth.

It is the second largest volcano on Iceland and is directly above the mantle plume of molten rock.

By comparison, Bárdarbunga dwarves the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which shutdown most of Europe's airspace last year after its ash cloud drifted across the continent's skies.
Speaking of Volcanos...
Excellent blog Dr Masters..

Baffin/Newfoundland Bays are still way behind..


This is showing Hudson Bay~.08sq million km short of froze over..but pretty close.
Reason for warmth at North pole

Darn, all those warm anomalies in NE Canada... you'd think the NFL would wise up and consider relocating the SuperBowl up there... instead of such a harsh, brutally uncomfortable, cold / snowy location like Dallas TX...
;)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Reason for warmth at North pole


Makes sense to me. Probably also the reason Europe has been experiencing the record cold and snow and also why Florida has been so unseasonably cold this winter. It's been displaced and spread around the globe.
Quoting fireflymom:




Thanks! Good info.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Darn, all those warm anomalies in NE Canada... you'd think the NFL would wise up and consider relocating the SuperBowl up there... instead of such a harsh, brutally uncomfortable, cold / snowy location like Dallas TX...
;)

LOL

Well, next year is Indy and then up at the new Meadowlands in NY in 2014. Might be very interesting to say the least.
Anytime you are 30 degrees cooler than average down in the lattitudes which is closer to the equator is more impressive and ridiculous than near the poles and 54 degrees above average. Why? cuz it's almost near the tropics!!
Thanks Jeff...great update
Quoting RitaEvac:
Anytime you are 30 degrees cooler than average down in the lattitudes which is closer to the equator is more impressive and ridiculous than near the poles and 54 degrees above average. Why? cuz it's almost near the tropics!!

In other words, you are more likely to hear complaints from Floridians with a 45 degree temperature when they're normally accustomed to 75 degrees. But when it's -10 or -60 in the frozen tundra, who cares! It's brutally cold either way. I get that.
Easy for warm air to warm the poles than cold air to cool the lower lattitudes,
Quoting RitaEvac:
Easy for warm air to warm the poles than cold air to cool the lower lattitudes,

...hence the greater fluctuations of temperature extremes up in the higher latitudes near the poles.
Quoting hydrus:
Interesting post. I thought that volcanoes would crank out more GhG,s than that. Some years are much more volcanically active than others. That could change that numbers a bit.


Just a bit of thinking would tell you how ridiculous it is to think that volcanoes emit more CO2 than human activity, especially the claims that ONE eruption can emit more. Current global CO2 emissions are around 30 billion tons a year. How much is that? Well, the density of CO2 is 1.977 grams per liter (at 1 atm and 0°C), so that is 1.5 * 10^16 liters of CO2, or 15 trillion cubic meters (1 liter is 1000 cubic centimeters, 1 cubic meter is 1000 liters) or 15,000 cubic kilometers. Just imagine the volcanic eruption that would be needed to erupt that much CO2 (not to mention all of the other stuff they emit)! Even supervolcanoes have emitted less than 1,000 km^3 in total!

In addition, try to find Pinatubo on this graph:



No? Hint: It erupted in 1991. Another hint: Mauna Loa itself last erupted in 1984.

Also, on the long term, the current CO2 balance is negative - volcanoes are emitting LESS CO2 than is being taken out by chemical weathering (CO2 reacts with rocks, especially in areas like the Himalayas):



(note the rise until India collided with Asia, ending the subduction of carbon-rich seafloor and the rise of the Himalayas, which lead to increased weathering of CO2)
Graphs are not reality, nature doesn't work on graphs nor does it care nor does it follow
Funny too the claims that temperature anomalies in the Arctic don't matter!

I wonder why last February was so warm? Especially compared to January 1966, which was also quite warm in the tropics due to an El Nino:



PS: They also need to brush up on their knowledge of ENSO - we just had the warmest La Nina January EVER RECORDED! So La Nina years are cooler (a fact known (and hyped up) for decades), so what? The warming trend affects ALL years equally!
Only 1 or 2 years is moot compared to large scheme of things
One more real good shot of Arctic air for the DFW Metroplex Wed-Thurs, before "normal La Nina Weather" returns. We are forecasting a low of 11F on Thurs AM:
11 degrees?! they coming down more since then?


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN KS...SE CO...NE NM...OK
PANHANDLE...NW TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 081611Z - 082215Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN
KS. FURTHER WEST...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NE NM...THE
NW TX PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1 INCH
PER HOUR RATES LIKELY ESPECIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING.

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM NEAR GOODLAND AND
DODGE CITY KANSAS EWD TO SALINA AND WICHITA KS LOCATED ALONG A ZONE
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS SLAB OF ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND SAG SLOWLY SWD THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SRN KS NEAR THE OK STATE-LINE. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAVY SNOW...SFC TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SFC WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO
-30 F RANGE.

FURTHER TO THE WEST... A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXISTS FROM NEAR
TRINIDAD EWD TO NEAR LAMAR CO. THIS BAND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN SE CO.
THIS VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD AIR
ADVECTS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NE NM...THE NW TX
PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE WITH THE START TIME ESTIMATED IN THE
19Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 02/08/2011


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
ABQ...

LAT...LON 36510103 35770431 35780548 36310575 36860527 38000231
39190052 39479975 39499867 39139718 38579617 37869571
37409608 37299676 37249769 37169855 36849965 36510103
Quoting RitaEvac:
11 degrees?! they coming down more since then?

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Southeast wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Rain before 3am, then rain, snow, and sleet. Low around 24. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday: Snow, mainly before noon. Temperature falling to around 20 by 5pm. Wind chill values between 7 and 17. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values between zero and 5. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 31. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Houston/Galveston NWS

Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 6:14 AM CST on February 08, 2011


... Arctic cold front will usher in much colder weather Wednesday
afternoon and night...

An Arctic cold front will sweep across southeast Texas on
Wednesday... bringing widespread rainfall ahead of the front and
much colder temperatures in its wake. Temperatures will reach into
the 50s during the morning... and then fall into the 30s over the
inland areas and into the lower 40s at the coast during the
afternoon. Most inland counties will then experience freezing
temperatures by or shortly after sunset. Overnight lows will
likely range from the mid and upper 20s inland to around 30 at the coast


Arctic sea ice at a record low again

LOL!!!

Looks like another auto piolet blog topic from our wise Dr. M.

Record breaking sea ice melt!!

There are 12 record breaking ice melt months every year!!

You can bet on a record breaking March ice melt. Better odds than hitting the quinella box at Jaialai.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Graphs are not reality, nature doesn't work on graphs nor does it care nor does it follow

IOW: "Don't confuse me with facts." Gotcha... ;-)
It's not what's known, it's what's reported.
Can someone please educate me? I learned in my intro meteorology class that the global circulation patterns generate HIGH pressure in the Arctic and Antarctic, yet all of the discussion of the NAO refers to Arctic LOW pressure. Thanks; I learn a lot from you guys even though I don't post much.

Isn't the Arctic the complete opposite of the Tropics?? why isn't there an Arctic blog, we have this Tropics blog, but doesn't make sense talking about the Arctic?


Pretty steady trend in 30 years. Anyone want to bet that this trend has been on going prior to 1979? The graph would look the same from 5500 BC-5470 BC, according to the Ancient Alien Ice Data Observation Clinic.
Every scientist has a different graph, everybody on here can find different graphs......... nobody has a clue of what's going on, lol
Quoting RitaEvac:
Isn't the Arctic the complete opposite of the Tropics?? why isn't there an Arctic blog, we have this Tropics blog, but doesn't make sense talking about the Arctic?

Well for some, they already believe the Arctic IS the tropics.
Quoting Surfcropper:


Pretty steady trend in 30 years. Anyone want to bet that this trend has been on going prior to 1979? The graph would look the same from 5500 BC-5470 BC, according to the Ancient Alien Ice Data Observation Clinic.




Icelights: Your Burning Questions About Ice & Climate




History of Arctic (and Antarctic) Sea Ice, Part 1
Quoting Neapolitan:

IOW: "Don't confuse me with facts." Gotcha... ;-)

So, are those graphs on whatsupwiththat also facts?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Well for some, they already believe the Arctic IS the tropics.

Relax. What happens in the larger hemispheric weather patterns affects the temperate zones and the tropics, plus our friends in S FL or Rio Grande Valley :D
Quoting Surfcropper:


Pretty steady trend in 30 years. Anyone want to bet that this trend has been on going prior to 1979? The graph would look the same from 5500 BC-5470 BC, according to the Ancient Alien Ice Data Observation Clinic.

I heard their reporting abilities were even more advanced than ours!
And why is it called an Arctic outbreak or Arctic Blast in the lower 48? isn't the Arctic already gone by now?! if it's warming so much why in the hell we calling it Arctic air?
The odd thing about the ice data graph is that it slopes downward at consistent intervals. Like the stock market, waves on the beach, solar activity, etc...a nice healthy, natural cyclical pattern.

Unlike a graph of the national debt, for example, where the points on the graph would be a fast rising sharp incline.

Since all of the global warming hysteria started, the debt has risen at a faster rate? Any coinsidence? Talk about trends...

LOL
Quoting cat5hurricane:

So, are those graphs on whatsupwiththat also facts?


Not when they push insane nonsense like this:

Arctic-gate: Harrison Schmitt, self-described “denier” of human-caused global warming, pushes myth that Arctic sea ice has recovered “to 1989 levels”!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Relax. What happens in the larger hemispheric weather patterns affects the temperate zones and the tropics, plus our friends in S FL or Rio Grande Valley :D

Hard to relax Bord when I'm still in Arlington and you're telling me 11 degrees by Wed morning!! lol. Time for some hot coffee and a little Bailey's Irish Cream sprinkled in.
Bord Dallas calling 11 Thursday AM, but Houston calling 26. If that 11 pans out Houston should be at least 21
Arctic sea ice was very likely growing 7,500 years ago:





Global Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling

Based on its long-term orbit, Earth should be heading into an ice age. But instead of continuing to cool—as it had been for at least the past 2,000 years—the Arctic has started to warm. And the reason is humans' impact on the composition of the atmosphere, new research suggests.
50.

Cool, Mike, 1953-1979 data is appreciated. But is that OFFICIAL from the National Snow and Ice Data Center?



Still looks like a healthy trend. A nice staircase slope downward.

Guess what happens at extent zero kilometers? Wanna bet the stairs go back up?
Quoting Surfcropper:
The odd thing about the ice data graph is that it slopes downward at consistent intervals. Like the stock market, waves on the beach, solar activity, etc...a nice healthy, natural cyclical pattern.

Unlike a graph of the national debt, for example, where the points on the graph would be a fast rising sharp incline.

Since all of the global warming hysteria started, the debt has risen at a faster rate? Any coinsidence? Talk about trends...

LOL

Are you insinuating that politics may just have a slight affect on it?? How dare you!! Al Gore would be very ashamed.
re: #27

Yeah cat5, but just imagine if the AO/NAO continues this trend into strongly negative indices, next couple years in Winter those warm anomalies could expand / spill over a larger area into the NE US, might be surprisingly warmer in Indy / NYC... while we're snowbound at the New Orleans SuperBowl in 2013!
LOL...

Seriously, I think a lotta folks have gotten an education on the incredible impact of the AO/NAO the past two years, with a lot of seasonal forecasts being blown away that were too heavily biased toward the expected ENSO cycle's contribution, especially on regional temps... To me it appears the AO / NAO apparently overrules the ENSO in the short term in temps, while the synoptic moisture pattern - esp over the N Gulf region - remains consistently more attributable to ENSO with wet El Ninos / dry La Ninas... Despite overall global temp contribution from each ENSO cycle, regional temp trends perhaps have lesser certainty of correlation than previously assumed...

I'm also curious of a possible teleconnection with the AO / NAO's impact with the Caribbean mid-upper ridging pattern... After being largely absent for much of Winter while under the negative AO / NAO - and, for example, allowing Florida to be extremely colder than normal, a fat and healthy ridge appeared over the Antilles over the past two weeks, returning FL to more typical warmth that natives and snowbirds enjoy... which coincided with the sharp uptick into positive territory of the AO / NAO... After this last deep trof coming across shunts the Antilles ridge EWD into the Atlantic, generally flat, broad ridging is expected to quickly reestablish over the Carib / Cen Am, expanding it's warmth NWD and jet stream retreats...

PS EDIT:
Dr Jeff, wonder if you have any thoughts on this?
PWS showing 7 degrees near Dalhart TX and 40s in Lubbock, within 100 miles
Quoting Surfcropper:
Guess what happens at extent zero kilometers? Wanna bet the stairs go back up?

So long as we're still pumping out the CO2 at or near current levels, it won't.
7.9F HERE WITH CHILLS OF -8F

brrrrr
Keeper, when was the last time you can think of that you saw temps of that type off the coast of Africa at this time of the year?
67:

Snowbound in the Big Easy. I guess you just never know! I'll prepare just in case. Nothing's worse than getting caught offguard. It's one thing to forget the sunblock and get a little burned, but another to shiver for hours on end when alcohol, brats, and chili don't even do the trick.
Earth should be heading into an ice age. But instead of continuing to cool—as it had been for at least the past 2,000 years—the Arctic has started to warm. And the reason is humans' impact on the composition of the atmosphere, new research suggests.

The World was cooling from 1 AD to 2000? or xyz BC to 1953 AD?

Its astounding to think human impact on the composition of the atmosphere has beaten off natural global famine and species extinctions. So why are we being punished for changing the environment?

Less Ice means fewer places for seals to rest and hide + more Polar Bears getting easier meals = somebody was wrong a few years ago, Polar Bears have now more of a food supply probably in millions of years.

Flip the ice melt graphs upside down and you have your polar bear population anomalies.
Quoting RitaEvac:
PWS showing 7 degrees near Dalhart TX and 40s in Lubbock, within 100 miles

Actually, that's the ASOS station!

Link
Pretty much of a cyclic occurence. You can't accurately measure weather patterns and trends in one hundred year increments. This is a cycle that goes back thousands of years and is perfectly normal. There is no Global warming goblin at work. Just nature and the universe.
75. PWS refers to what, cause thats the Initials of my name....
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Keeper, when was the last time you can think of that you saw temps of that type off the coast of Africa at this time of the year?
its been warmer than normal the last four seasons off africa now with the sun inching ever further north it will only get warmer as we progress towards spring
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its been warmer than normal the last four seasons off africa now with the sun inching ever further north it will only get warmer as we progress towards spring


As we inch towards Hurricane season, what then does that imply for the SST´s off of Africa during the CV season?




A nice steady decline? I don't think so... (hint, look at the trend line used)

By the way, ice volume is more important, as shown here:



(this of course includes ALL ice, including land ice)
#77 -

Personal Weather Station I think, plywood...
MisterPrefect

troll......
Amy, how is MP doing?
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


As we inch towards Hurricane season, what then does that imply for the SST´s off of Africa during the CV season?


If the AO/NAO remains positive, they will get a beating, possibly even cool off the below average, not to mention that Atlantic SSTs correlate with ENSO with a lag (the El Nino last year contributed to the record warmth).

Indeed, there has already been cooling in the tropical Atlantic:





Note the pattern of warming/cooling and the patterns shown here for the NAO - the change is exactly what you would expect for a change to a positive NAO:

Quoting NRAamy:
MisterPrefect

troll......

Derivative I admit, but hardly a troll. Haven't you ever read Hitchhiker's Giude to the Galaxy?

Quoting MisterPrefect:

Derivative I admit, but hardly a troll. Haven't you ever read Hitchhiker's Giude to the Galaxy?



ya need to read your email and respond, that would help for starters.
omg

ya'll are missing ALL the clues

i already figured out who it is (waves to the north)
Aqua, helps if you are awake at the keyboard instead of needing a cafe cubano
hi plywood

gotta get back to work in a sec, ahh but I just had to JUMP IN

can you drink cafe cubano at the library?
Speaking of SSTs, it is interesting to note that despite a La Nina that has set many records (including the highest January SOI on record, after the highest December SOI on record, highest October-December SOI, etc, not to mention near records like the second lowest MEI value of all time), global SSTs have already recovered to 2009 levels; in fact, it is currently closer to 2010 (during the strongest El Nino since 1997-98) than it is to 2008 (the last strong La Nina):



(note also that 2009 started setting monthly SST records beginning in June, of course, related to El Nino, but also the long-term warming trend)
Quoting aquak9:
hi plywood

gotta get back to work in a sec, ahh but I just had to JUMP IN

can you drink cafe cubano at the library?


One not there, two, if I could find some of that cafe around I would take it period.
see later after 3
During the last few years I have seen both the negative AO and positive AO blamed for sea ice loss.....somebody needs to make up their minds.

Both of these quotes are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

"The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a see-saw pattern of alternating atmospheric pressure at polar and mid-latitudes. The positive phase produces a strong polar vortex, with the mid-latitude jet stream shifted northward. The negative phase produces the opposite conditions. From the 1950s to the 1980s, the AO flipped between positive and negative phases, but it entered a strong positive pattern between 1989 and 1995. So the acceleration in the sea ice decline since the mid 1990s may have been partly triggered by the strongly positive AO mode during the preceding years (Rigor et al. 2002 and Rigor and Wallace 2004) that flushed older, thicker ice out of the Arctic, but other factors also played a role."


But here is a recent headline on their news page:

"Arctic Oscillation brings record low January extent, unusual mid-latitude weather
Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was the lowest in the satellite record for that month. The Arctic oscillation persisted in its strong negative phase for most of the month, keeping ice extent low.
"


"As in December 2010, the warm temperatures in January came from two sources: unfrozen areas of the ocean continued to release heat to the atmosphere, and the wind patterns accompanying the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation brought warm air into the Arctic. Near the end of January the negative Arctic oscillation pattern broke down and turned positive, which usually favors ice growth."


What? Make up your minds. Furthermore, although the recent blame for arctic sea ice loss has been the negative AO, the IPCC projections show a more dominantly positive AO as time goes on, and cite it as one of the primary causes of future arctic sea ice loss.


University of Illinois IPCC Arctic GCM Scenarios
Quoting Surfcropper:
Less Ice means fewer places for seals to rest and hide more Polar Bears getting easier meals = somebody was wrong a few years ago, Polar Bears have now more of a food supply probably in millions of years.

Flip the ice melt graphs upside down and you have your polar bear population anomalies.

Well, both ringed seals and bearded seals--mainstays of the polar bear diet--need ice for reproduction and molting; where there's no ice, there are no seals--and where there are no seals, there are fewer polar bears.

This is from a story published just today:

"During the spring and summer months the females are hunting seals on the ice to build up energy for the autumn and winter when they will hibernate for up to eight months and give birth. The study found the early melting of the ice made it more difficult for the bears to hunt seals successfully and build up energy. Therefore there is less chance of a successful pregnancy."
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Are you insinuating that politics may just have a slight affect on it?? How dare you!! Al Gore would be very ashamed.


Yeah, the increase in national debt has nothing to do with increased military spending, multiple foreign war and police actions, the creation of a new multi-billion dollar agency (DHS), or anything like that. It's all because of the global climate conspiracy.

By the way, aliens are controlling your mind. Put on those tinfoil hats boys.
Quoting Levi32:
During the last few years I have seen both the negative AO and positive AO blamed for sea ice loss.....somebody needs to make up their minds.

Both of these quotes are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

"The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a see-saw pattern of alternating atmospheric pressure at polar and mid-latitudes. The positive phase produces a strong polar vortex, with the mid-latitude jet stream shifted northward. The negative phase produces the opposite conditions. From the 1950s to the 1980s, the AO flipped between positive and negative phases, but it entered a strong positive pattern between 1989 and 1995. So the acceleration in the sea ice decline since the mid 1990s may have been partly triggered by the strongly positive AO mode during the preceding years (Rigor et al. 2002 and Rigor and Wallace 2004) that flushed older, thicker ice out of the Arctic, but other factors also played a role."


But here is a recent headline on their news page:

"Arctic Oscillation brings record low January extent, unusual mid-latitude weather
Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was the lowest in the satellite record for that month. The Arctic oscillation persisted in its strong negative phase for most of the month, keeping ice extent low.
"


"As in December 2010, the warm temperatures in January came from two sources: unfrozen areas of the ocean continued to release heat to the atmosphere, and the wind patterns accompanying the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation brought warm air into the Arctic. Near the end of January the negative Arctic oscillation pattern broke down and turned positive, which usually favors ice growth."


What? Make up your minds. Furthermore, although the recent blame for arctic sea ice loss has been the negative AO, the IPCC projections show a more dominantly positive AO as time goes on, and cite it as one of the primary causes of future arctic sea ice loss.


University of Illinois IPCC Arctic GCM Scenarios


It seems fairly obvious now that both strongly positive and strongly negative AO can cause ice loss in the right conditions. IPCC projections are based on the best science at the time. It's really cool to see how science moves forward continuously, nobody can stop learning ever, and that's one of the big reasons I'm studying for a career in research.
O Lordy.....


Freddie Kruger day?
Well, my local weather guy on noon news say we are in for "a Doozy of some weather" tomorrow night and early Thur. morn here in cetral Ms. From 2 to 4 inches of snow/or wintry stuff. Someone please take a look and see what it looks like to you. Prepare for a Doozy....lol...or what?
Quoting Levi32:
During the last few years I have seen both the negative AO and positive AO blamed for sea ice loss.....somebody needs to make up their minds.

Both of these quotes are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

"The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a see-saw pattern of alternating atmospheric pressure at polar and mid-latitudes. The positive phase produces a strong polar vortex, with the mid-latitude jet stream shifted northward. The negative phase produces the opposite conditions. From the 1950s to the 1980s, the AO flipped between positive and negative phases, but it entered a strong positive pattern between 1989 and 1995. So the acceleration in the sea ice decline since the mid 1990s may have been partly triggered by the strongly positive AO mode during the preceding years (Rigor et al. 2002 and Rigor and Wallace 2004) that flushed older, thicker ice out of the Arctic, but other factors also played a role."


But here is a recent headline on their news page:

"Arctic Oscillation brings record low January extent, unusual mid-latitude weather
Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was the lowest in the satellite record for that month. The Arctic oscillation persisted in its strong negative phase for most of the month, keeping ice extent low.
"


"As in December 2010, the warm temperatures in January came from two sources: unfrozen areas of the ocean continued to release heat to the atmosphere, and the wind patterns accompanying the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation brought warm air into the Arctic. Near the end of January the negative Arctic oscillation pattern broke down and turned positive, which usually favors ice growth."


What? Make up your minds. Furthermore, although the recent blame for arctic sea ice loss has been the negative AO, the IPCC projections show a more dominantly positive AO as time goes on, and cite it as one of the primary causes of future arctic sea ice loss.


University of Illinois IPCC Arctic GCM Scenarios


They don't need to make up their minds. Both positive and negative AOs can have an effect on sea ice. A positive AO helps push ice out of the arctic in warmer months when the ice pack is weaker. A negative AO keeps temperatures warmer in the winter.

These are not the only factors. They are contributing factors.
40 to 50 degree difference in less than 100 miles in the TX panhandle
Quoting FFtrombi:


It seems fairly obvious now that both strongly positive and strongly negative AO can cause ice loss in the right conditions. IPCC projections are based on the best science at the time. It's really cool to see how science moves forward continuously, nobody can stop learning ever, and that's one of the big reasons I'm studying for a career in research.


Interesting to hear that said at a time when it suits the situation, but would anyone ordinarily admit that some of the major principles of the 2007 IPCC projections are misguided or wrong? Their models simulations of the arctic atmospheric circulation have been almost completely opposite of reality over the last 10-20 years.

It begs the question, how many more of these 21st century projections are going to require "better science" to become correct in the future?
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Yeah, the increase in national debt has nothing to do with increased military spending, multiple foreign war and police actions, the creation of a new multi-billion dollar agency (DHS), or anything like that. It's all because of the global climate conspiracy.

By the way, aliens are controlling your mind. Put on those tinfoil hats boys.

Yes! I think we have finally got somewhere. I knew you had the capability to sort through it.

Pat on the back for you as well. Good job!
And thank you ;)
nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews


February 2, 2011
Arctic Oscillation brings record low January extent, unusual mid-latitude weather

Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was the lowest in the satellite record for that month. The Arctic oscillation persisted in its strong negative phase for most of the month, keeping ice extent low.
map from space showing sea ice extent, continentsFigure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was 13.55 million square kilometers (5.23 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

High-resolution image


Overview of conditions

Arctic sea ice extent averaged over January 2011 was 13.55 million square kilometers (5.23 million square miles). This was the lowest January ice extent recorded since satellite records began in 1979. It was 50,000 square kilometers (19,300 square miles) below the record low of 13.60 million square kilometers (5.25 million square miles), set in 2006, and 1.27 million square kilometers (490,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.

Ice extent in January 2011 remained unusually low in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait (between southern Baffin Island and Labrador), and Davis Strait (between Baffin Island and Greenland). Normally, these areas freeze over by late November, but this year Hudson Bay did not completely freeze over until mid-January. The Labrador Sea remains largely ice-free.
Amarillo is 11 degrees with winds gusting to 43mph with -13 degree wind chill
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Speaking of SSTs, it is interesting to note that despite a La Nina that has set many records (including the highest January SOI on record, after the highest December SOI on record, highest October-December SOI, etc, not to mention near records like the second lowest MEI value of all time), global SSTs have already recovered to 2009 levels; in fact, it is currently closer to 2010 (during the strongest El Nino since 1997-98) than it is to 2008 (the last strong La Nina):



(note also that 2009 started setting monthly SST records beginning in June, of course, related to El Nino, but also the long-term warming trend)


It's also convenient to leave out how this La Nina did, after all, come directly off the heels of one of the strongest El Ninos ever recorded, and it takes a lot to get the global temperature to fall far below average straight off that kind of a peak. 2008's La Nina started with global temperatures over 0.1C cooler than they were when this La Nina started, and we have already fallen a greater amount in global temperature than 2008's La Nina did. If this La Nina is a single-year event then we likely won't get down as far as 2008, which is very typical of ENSO cycles. The bigger question is whether a potential multi-year La Nina event or more frequent La Ninas due to the now negative PDO will help level global temperature off during this decade. In fact, since last decade the trend is already more than flat in the oceans.


Note on the figure: The anomalies here don't matter. The base period does not matter. They are there for relative comparison within the last decade only. It is the trends that matter here.
Quoting Patrap:
Get some Popcorn, sit back and enjoy the Movie.



Movie of sea ice extent, 1979–2009, in Google Earth

2009 sea ice extent side-by-side with 1979–2009 climatology (QuickTime, 1.1 MB)



This isn't one of the sequels, is it?

Popcorn is popping. But by any chance do you have the black and white version Patrap?
Howling Blue Norther blasting thru TX Panhandle!! it's outta control out there folks!
North Pole is visiting Texas for crying out loud
DANGEROUS DEGREES
Dalhart, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 14 min 13 sec ago
7 °F Light Snow
Windchill: -18 °F
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: -2 °F
Wind: 36 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 43 mph

Pressure: 30.08 in (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 miles

Brrrrrrr
try NETFLix
This is reality Pat!! North Pole has arrived in TEXAS!!
Darn. RedBox didn't have it either.
I'm sorry, it's not REALITY, IT'S ACTUAL ALITY!
A Warming Planet is showing the Stress in the Arctic, like the proverbial Canary in a Cave.
And now it's OUR LAND! Pat, build up some buildings and golf courses and more people to inhabit the poles
And we can all hold hands around the planet and sing Koom by yaaaaa
They'd probably have Mardi Gras parades up there too. I don't see why not.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, both ringed seals and bearded seals--mainstays of the polar bear diet--need ice for reproduction and molting; where there's no ice, there are no seals--and where there are no seals, there are fewer polar bears.



This is from a story published just today:

"During the spring and summer months the females are hunting seals on the ice to build up energy for the autumn and winter when they will hibernate for up to eight months and give birth. The study found the early melting of the ice made it more difficult for the bears to hunt seals successfully and build up energy. Therefore there is less chance of a successful pregnancy."


Well you have to look at the big picture here...eventually record breaker after record breaker will result in zero sea ice. The Seals will eventually adapt to reproduction on land. Then the Polar Bears will find themselves sleeping in seal nurseries. By then, there will be a global initiative to stop Polar Bear Obesity, as seal spawning grounds will look like McDonald's restaurants on every street corner to an urban Polar Bear.

Also, if there is a gradual rise in global temperature, there won't be harsh winters for the Polar Bears to have to "store energy" for in the future. It'll be a casino buffet everyday, year round for the Polar Bears. Eventually over eons the bears' fur will change to the color of their new and improved terrain that has an endless food supply.
* Blast rocks Enterprise Mount Belvieu plant-reports

2:11pm EST


HOUSTON | Tue Feb 8, 2011 2:15pm EST

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Explosions triggered a massive fire at Enterprise Products Mont Belvieu, Texas, natural gas storage plant at about 12:15 p.m. local time, according to local media reports.

KHOU-TV said the blaze at the plant located about 35 miles east of downtown Houston appeared to be burning out of control following a series of explosions.

Mont Belvieu is a major natural gas liquid storage hub.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba; Editing by David Gregorio)
AND we'll shut down all the plants and refineries and just like what PAT posted so were all warm and safe and cozy at the camp fire trying to survive the Arctic Blast that is barreling down into TX as I type.
If Pat brings the beer, I'll bring the marshmallows. Let's do it.
There wont be beer because that's part of the problems with global warming, too much energy being used and CO2 to make all that stuff and the trucks to ship it out and it's just not practical anymore
Im off till March 9th Ash Wednesday,,so me and the Brewski's are staying right here thru Mardi Gras.

Even have some folks from Canada coming.
I guess there was a reason I saved all the flasks I've been given over the years. Kettle One anyone?
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Well, my local weather guy on noon news say we are in for "a Doozy of some weather" tomorrow night and early Thur. morn here in cetral Ms. From 2 to 4 inches of snow/or wintry stuff. Someone please take a look and see what it looks like to you. Prepare for a Doozy....lol...or what?


Hiya Eyes,
Might depend on particular location (or definition of a "doozy", lol) - if it's N Cen MS which could get notable snowfall... vs S Cen MS getting more of a possible changeover to frz rain, viewing the model projections of temps aloft... Those of us more on the S side of the system will get more rapid, strongest CAA at sfc to around 850 mb, much less aloft at critical thickness values...

LOL, it's an easier call here in SE LA...

Pat they should feel right at home when this ARCTIC BLAST comes barreling thru there!!
How do you know the seals will adapt to life on land instead of die out? Can you prove that?


Quoting Surfcropper:


Well you have to look at the big picture here...eventually record breaker after record breaker will result in zero sea ice. The Seals will eventually adapt to reproduction on land. Then the Polar Bears will find themselves sleeping in seal nurseries. By then, there will be a global initiative to stop Polar Bear Obesity, as seal spawning grounds will look like McDonald's restaurants on every street corner to an urban Polar Bear.

Also, if there is a gradual rise in global temperature, there won't be harsh winters for the Polar Bears to have to "store energy" for in the future. It'll be a casino buffet everyday, year round for the Polar Bears. Eventually over eons the bears' fur will change to the color of their new and improved terrain that has an endless food supply.


135. JRRP
Quoting weatherboy1992:
How do you know the seals will adapt to life on land instead of die out? Can you prove that?




are you sure you want to try 'reason' with this individual?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Are you really that dense? Oh silly me...I should know the answer to that one...one snow storm and now the globe is cooling...what's next genius? Do you light your own farts too?

Oh hey, sarcasm.
Reality is skewed fer some.


And thats Okay.



Im decorating the Front of the Haus here for Mardi Gras.

I have more Lights of the Purple green and gold variety to go Hang.




That may be a good point. Never mind.

Quoting Minnemike:
are you sure you want to try 'reason' with this individual?
Green and Gold Patrap? We're not jumping on the Packers bandwagon now, are we. Drew Brees and Marquis Colston would be really bummed.
142. JRRP

Quoting DocNDswamp:


Hiya Eyes,
Might depend on particular location (or definition of a "doozy", lol) - if it's N Cen MS which could get notable snowfall... vs S Cen MS getting more of a possible changeover to frz rain, viewing the model projections of temps aloft... Those of us more on the S side of the system will get more rapid, strongest CAA at sfc to around 850 mb, much less aloft at critical thickness values...

LOL, it's an easier call here in SE LA...



Ty Doc, I'm more S central, little below I-20....would really prefer the snow...lol...MDOT still being talked about here from problems last week....was awful... will be civil unrest if not better this time...;}
Quoting Patrap:
Reality is skewed fer some.


And thats Okay.



Im decorating the Front of the Haus here for Mardi Gras.

I have more Lights of the Purple green and gold variety to go Hang.






Drink one for me but don't black out! Or maybe that would be even more fun...LOL!
Maybe Google dem Colors with a Mardi Gras Tag.
And yes, I'll be there. Bringing plenty of beads.
Quoting JRRP:


"The PIPS model is an operational model, and is designed to forecast the ice a few days into the future (for navy submarine use, etc). It is not proper to use it to study year to year changes. PIPS, is known to be not terribly useful for sea ice other than perhaps motion; definitely not thickness."

Link
"Do you light your own farts too?"

LOL, only if I suspect a dangerous foul emission to ensue...
...and by all means, with underwear or other protective clothing on... Trust me, I learned painfully the hard way back in my more adventurous youth!

Hey, c'mon... I only did it (hastily, might add) in the name of advancing scientific knowledge!
;)
I knew you still had the Saints in you Pat. Whoa. Got worried there for a minute.
I saw the CO2 figures updated yesterday. 12 month increase at Mauna Loa was 2.74 ppm. Very fast.
LOL!
Quoting JRRP:



Looks like the CFS still has a cold bias, eh?

Never mind that if a permanent La Nina occurred, global temperatures would simply take a one-time step down, then continue rising.



Global cooling? Nope

The warmest La Nina January on record - despite also being the strongest La Nina (SOI) on record!

Indeed: Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming

LOL:

Big Chill for the Greenhouse

Monday, Oct. 31, 1988

Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."
155. Jax82
In case anyone cares, only 160,380 minutes until hurricane season. And yes i'm bored.
BUSHLAND #1 (MADIS) MBUST2 7° F

Pecos KPEQ 79° F

72 degree difference now where Arctic blast with howling winds and clouds are to warm southerly sunny conditions are within 200 miles
The warmth arrives over snow-covered ground which will restrain the rise in temperatures at least initially. But it may still produce the area's first above-freezing temperatures in two-weeks beginning this weekend.

Days continue lengthening and the sun has risen in the arctic. This will allow readings there to warm in the weeks ahead. But don't be surprised if the break in the cold air is transitional. Global computer model forecasts hint at warmth rebuilding aloft over the North Atlantic in the 11-15 day range. This might well re-establish the Greenland Block and begin a new cascade of cold air into North America before month's end. Weather history reveals 35 percent of Chicago's seasonal snow falls beyond this date.

Link
I like the Pack but my 7th B-day was Super Bowl One and Ive seen every one,and waited 43 outta 50 yrs for our turn.

So Detroit and a few others have that Burden now,,Sorry Dr. Masters.


I saw Peyton Manning's, Eli's and Coopers Dad, Archie Play his First Saints Game here in a Galaxy and Tulane Stadium far,far away.

But thats a entry fer nuther day.
157:

Isn't WGN's Tom Skilling the best. Man, I love that guy. You know he was in his glory during that blizzard.
156:

Fine example of extreme temperature swings up in that neck of the woods. Not all that unusual.
Indeed,
Unfortunately, appears that warming trend next week and beyond could seriously melt a lot of the snow pack into the lower Midwest... Hopefully a mild warming trend, or a relatively slow pace to avoid flooding issues - potentially could get ugly if coincides with any hvy rainfalls there...
Tom Skilling's forecasts on WGN are close to 10 minutes. Know wonder they need a full hour for the newscast to accommodate the other news.


Wow 936mb low forecast west of Iceland in 108 hrs...
Ditto on much respect for Chicago's Tom Skilling... extremely informative, detailed forecasts that are useful to far more than just the Midwest region...

Certainly worth the wait and a pleasure hearing Tom's analysis / forecast after enduring another pathetic Cubs loss!
;)
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Ditto on much respect for Chicago's Tom Skilling... extremely informative, detailed forecasts that are useful to far more than just the Midwest region...

Certainly worth the wait and a pleasure hearing Tom's analysis / forecast after enduring another pathetic Cubs loss!
;)

EXACTLY. Skilling's informative, detailed forecast and a Cub's loss. Two things you can almost always count on! :)
Quoting cat5hurricane:
157:

Isn't WGN's Tom Skilling the best. Man, I love that guy. You know he was in his glory during that blizzard.


I first watched Tom on a Minneapolis station and was sad to see him leave for Chicago. But, he and Roger are the best!! (Is Roger still around)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

EXACTLY. Skilling's informative, detailed forecast and a Cub's loss. Two things you can almost always count on! :)

Is that the same Tom Skilling that worked a Milwaukee weather gig in the 70's? I think WTMJ
Quoting MichaelSTL:
LOL:

Big Chill for the Greenhouse

Monday, Oct. 31, 1988

Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


While temps retreating to 1950 levels isn't too wild of a guess if this La Nina becomes a multi-year event, the 2nd part of that statement is wrong. One spike or dip doesn't reset the bar.

However, the last 10 years present a pretty flat trend in global temperature during a period that has been pretty balanced between ENSO cycles.

going up to nyc feb 18-24th,anyone have any idea if the cold wx w/be back by then,im looking for a snowstorm!!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Looks like the CFS still has a cold bias, eh?

Never mind that if a permanent La Nina occurred, global temperatures would simply take a one-time step down, then continue rising.



Global cooling? Nope

The warmest La Nina January on record - despite also being the strongest La Nina (SOI) on record!

Indeed: Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming



The CFS doesn't have a cold bias. The CFS has a continuity bias. If you will remember, last February at this time, the CFS had 2010's El Nino continuing right through the fall season and into early winter.



Quoting Jax82:
In case anyone cares, only 160,380 minutes until hurricane season. And yes i'm bored.

That is hilarious.......
Quoting MichaelSTL:
LOL:

Big Chill for the Greenhouse

Monday, Oct. 31, 1988

Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."

Yeah, O'Brien is a long-time denialist; he was pooh-poohing GW and calling for an ice age while others like Bastardi and Watts were still in high school. It's no shocking news that he's a member of the ultra-right, ultra-ridiculous George C. Marshall CBPP, as well as the pro-pollution, Exxon-funded Fraser Institute and Tech Central Science Foundation. What an objective scientist! ;-)
It looks like the NCEP reanalysis data has gotten corrupted:

14,770,000 seconds till hurricane season..maybe...;0
Quoting hydrus:
14,770,000 seconds till hurricane season..maybe...;0


Who knows? One of Apophis' cousins could make a sudden appearance and the climate could really change...

Do you think we should find a goodly rock to hide under? LOL
5 degrees in Amarillo TX VS 52 degrees 95 miles to the SE. A 47 degree spread in less than 100 miles
Quoting FtMyersgal:

Is that the same Tom Skilling that worked a Milwaukee weather gig in the 70's? I think WTMJ

Yep, I believe so. He went to University of Wisconsin in Madison.
Quoting lilElla:


I first watched Tom on a Minneapolis station and was sad to see him leave for Chicago. But, he and Roger are the best!! (Is Roger still around)

Roger is not. At least not that I know of.
Quoting Floodman:


Who knows? One of Apophis' cousins could make a sudden appearance and the climate could really change...

Do you think we should find a goodly rock to hide under? LOL
Well. If ya have an asteroid 6 miles in diameter, weighing 14,560 million tonnes, moving at 55,000 mph, even if it lands in the Pacific which has an average depth around 13,000 feet, it would blast a hole through the ocean and the Earths crust straight into the mantle in a split second. There would be 100 mile high tidal wave and all kinds of debris to fly into bullistic orbit around the planet. Which would eventually rain back down due to orbital decay to destroy everything with explosions and firestorms and ALL Earths critters including us would have a bad day. Unless of course it is a dern sturdy rock...:) Good afternoon Flood.
180. xcool


ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE





WRF-NMM Forecast Model
Quoting Floodman:


Who knows? One of Apophis' cousins could make a sudden appearance and the climate could really change...

Do you think we should find a goodly rock to hide under? LOL











05.27.08

Skies were clear and sunny on Sol 1 on Mars. The temperature varied between minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit in the early morning and minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit in the afternoon. The average pressure was 8.55 millibars, which is less than a 1/100th of the sea level pressure on Earth.

The weather station was activated in the first hour after landing on Mars. Measurements are being recorded continuously.

The Phoenix Mission is led by the University of Arizona, Tucson, on behalf of NASA. Project management of the mission is by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. Spacecraft development is by Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver. The Canadian Space Agency contributed Phoenix's meteorological station. The University of Aarhus in Denmark contributed the telltale on the meteorology mast.
Quoting xcool:


ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE





WRF-NMM Forecast Model


TY, xcool :}
183. xcool
welcome
Wow, those are some insane ratios!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NWRN OK...OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...EXTREME
SERN CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 082150Z - 090245Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
KS...AND EXPAND INTO NWRN OK AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH N/NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES.

AN ELONGATED BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL LOCATED OVER SRN KS HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES. STRONG
LOWER-MID LEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED AT 40-50 KTS PER ICT AND DDC VWP DATA/
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP COLD
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL YIELD VERY HIGH LIQUID SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND
20-30:1.
WITH TIME...MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DCVA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/.
ADDITIONALLY...140+ KT UPPER JET WILL BECOME REPOSITIONED FROM ERN
NM INTO WRN OK...PLACING MUCH OF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK AND
SRN KS IN THE FAVORABLE CYCLONIC EXIT REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SWD EXPANSION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE
AND NWRN OK.

..ROGERS.. 02/08/2011


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...
AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35130240 35840304 37340273 37680232 38050190 38440117
38839809 38749602 38259494 37759462 37319483 36929579
36069840 35510043 35130240
Quoting MichaelSTL:
LOL:

Big Chill for the Greenhouse

Monday, Oct. 31, 1988

Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


You laugh at people with exceedingly more knowledge about the atmosphere than you? How arrogant can you possibly be? Take you're genius glasses off. You don't know what the heck you are talking about.


Sorry your pissed that the atmosphere doesn't cooperate with your panicky expectation that the world will end from CO2 increase. The atmosphere does what it wants, not what arrogant people with political biases say. If you are educated enough about the atmosphere, then you should be heavily convicted.
Quoting Jedkins01:


You laugh at people with exceedingly more knowledge about the atmosphere than you? How arrogant can you possibly be? Take you're genius glasses off. You don't know what the heck you are talking about.

LOL
Next La Nina will have its peak at a higher level! The trend speaks for itself! Link
3 degrees in Amarillo TX VS 52 degrees 95 miles to the SE. A near 50 degree spread in less than 100 miles
Quoting Xandra:
Next La Nina will have its peak at a higher level! The trend speaks for itself! Link


That already looks pretty likely, since January was warmer than the same month during the last La Nina. Well, at least in the satellite data, but very likely also in the surface data, especially since sea surface temperatures are warmer.

Edit - didn't you mean El Nino, since that would cause a higher global temperature peak. Although of course either state shows warming over the last one (depending on strength; there were several weak El Ninos between 1998 and 2010, while the 1998 El Nino was still much stronger than 2010; by contrast, the current La Nina is much stronger than the last one, yet hasn't caused as big of a drop in temperature).
What a 9.0 off the west coast? Tsunami wipe out if so
I get a good laugh every time I watch these long term climate predictions, when forecasting weather 10 days for my local weather in Tampa Bay is already a hard enough task. And no, I'm not stupid enough believe climate is magically different then meteorology. No, actually, Climatology is that much more complex. In fact, to forecast this Global Warming propaganda is exceedingly worse than a meteorologist saying he knows what the weather will be like in Tampa Bay area 3 Saturday's from now.

Grow up because the real world isn't governed by the theories in your dream world...


nah saying 5.2
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement issued 02/8/2011 at 2:05PM PST

At 2:02 PM Pacific Standard Time on February 8, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 5.2 occurred 195 miles/314 Km southwest of Eugene, Oregon .

The magnitude is such that a tsunami WILL NOT be generated. This will be the only WCATWC message issued for this event.

The location and magnitude are based on preliminary information. Further information will be issued by the United States Geological Survey or the appropriate regional seismic network.





No Tsunami Watch, Warning, or Advisory in effect
Quoting Patrap:
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement issued 02/8/2011 at 2:05PM PST

At 2:02 PM Pacific Standard Time on February 8, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 5.2 occurred 195 miles/314 Km southwest of Eugene, Oregon .

The magnitude is such that a tsunami WILL NOT be generated. This will be the only WCATWC message issued for this event.

The location and magnitude are based on preliminary information. Further information will be issued by the United States Geological Survey or the appropriate regional seismic network.





No Tsunami Watch, Warning, or Advisory in effect


Thats the second and larger one of the two in that same region today. Any warning signs of a third and even larger one?
Quoting MichaelSTL:


That already looks pretty likely, since January was warmer than the same month during the last La Nina. Well, at least in the satellite data, but very likely also in the surface data, especially since sea surface temperatures are warmer.

Edit - didn't you mean El Nino, since that would cause a higher global temperature peak. Although of course either state shows warming over the last one (depending on strength; there were several weak El Ninos between 1998 and 2010, while the 1998 El Nino was still much stronger than 2010; by contrast, the current La Nina is much stronger than the last one, yet hasn't caused as big of a drop in temperature).

No, I meant La Nina. That’s why I had the trend line in the bottom. I made a typo ! ;) Next La Nina will have its big drop at a higher level is the correct sentence! ;)
Oklahoma is having a wild snowy month. Oklahoma City has already set the record for the snowiest February on record, going back to 1891. Oklahoma City is forecast to have 4-8" more snow tomorrow.
The snowiest month in Oklahoma City was March 1911, with 20.7" of snow. They just may break that tomorrow.

Tulsa, OK set their record for the heaviest snowfall on Jan 31-Feb 1 2011. Tulsa is forecast to have 5"-9" of snow tomorrow.

Despite having no accumulating snow through December, Tulsa is well on the way to having it's snowiest winter on record. Snowfall in Jan was 3.6" and in February so far 16.8", for a total of 20.4" already. The record winter season snow for Tulsa is 25.6" in 1923-1924. Tulsa has a good chance of breaking their seasonal snowfall record tomorrow.
re: 143,

Eyes, sorry I failed to respond earlier... A close call, but hearing your location / viewing the Jackson NWS forecast for Hattiesburg, ya sure got a chance of changeover to include sleet and snow, not just frz rain... Good luck on the white, fluffy stuff!

MSZ074-091515-
FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HATTIESBURG
423 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH.

CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. CLOUDY IN THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

LOL, the chance of flurries would get us excited down here...

Cheers!

Of minor interest today is that CycloneOz has his webcam up and running because of a winter storm that is supposed to hit his area. Looks sunny right now, though!
Magnitude 5.2 - OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
2011 February 08 22:02:01 UTC
Someone screwed up the blog...Anyway Ya'll miss me?.It's okay if you say no.
no
the you tube vids messed up the page got to remember when ya post vids you have to select old embed code or you will mess up the blog page if not
How has your snookems Peter been doing?
NRAmy He he he.
Aussie. Sorry to tell you, but you video is messing up the blog.

I swear this new website has more bugs than a first class New York hotel.
Quoting jwh250:
How has your snookems Peter been doing?

Hey, I'm doing great. Thanks for asking. I was able to get rid of some excess baggage not too long ago and now things are really looking up for me.
The Vids and Page are fine in FireFox.

Which the Wunderground design most their scripts for exclusively.

If a Post skews in IE or other,,just use the HIDE feature and it should go away.
Its true. There is really nothing to do in Georgia.
Surfcopper their's nothing to really do in North Carolina.I visted there ever since I was four until now.And I always found myself getting nothing out of the deal....but some extra pounds.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Surfcopper their's nothing to really do in North Carolina.I visted there ever since I was four until now.And I always found myself getting nothing out of the deal....but some extra pounds.


during winter there is nothing to do anywhere...
Quoting Surfcropper:
Its true. There is really nothing to do in Georgia.

I don't know. I've heard that Savannah is a pretty happening city. Of course, I've only been outside of South Florida once in my life but I'm always willing to offer my totally uniformed opinion, ad infinatum, any time, any where.


Disney World draws the crowds year round

Its also protected by land in case the glaciers melt and flood the ocean.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Cat 5 Attack on NE Queensland.

CYCLONE YASI the full incredible chase video


Aerial footage of Cyclone Yasi devastation





I hope it's all better now
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


during winter there is nothing to do anywhere...
Maybe except for extream south Florida,but no where else really.North Carolina for me is boring year round for me xD
Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope it's all better now


Hey Aussie!
Just finished watching that. Deja Vu... Be interesting to see how the recovery goes compared to here in the US. Must have been a scary night for people. Things WILL get better.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe except for extream south Florida,but no where else really.North Carolina for me is boring year round for me xD


That's why you get a Wii or XBOX
;)

Quoting Surfcropper:


That's why you get a Wii or XBOX
;)

Cookies will be just fine.Yes chocolate chip please.
Clickable pic, L8R :)



Have a request can someone post the models for the possible snow for Atlanta GA?


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 090116Z - 090415Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 05-06Z.

ABOVE A SHALLOW STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS /WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE REGION AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
SATURATING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AT THE SAME TIME...A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL IS SPREADING
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z. AS MID-LEVEL LIFT SATURATES THE MIXED PHASE
LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...SNOW RATES
WILL INTENSIFY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS INITIALLY SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
HIGHER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF .4 TO .5 INCHES IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
IN NARROW TONGUE TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY NOT IMPACT SNOW
RATES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT....BUT IT APPEARS HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR LATE THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/09/2011


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35520240 36420078 36719960 36589829 36109807 35479822
34749994 34070158 34300260 34790266 35520240
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Have a request can someone post the models for the possible snow for Atlanta GA?




18Z NAM @ 42 hours



18Z GFS @ 42 hours
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Have a request can someone post the models for the possible snow for Atlanta GA?


If you are looking at Wednesday go here.


Geaux Sneaux


Quoting Patrap:
Geaux Sneaux




Bite your tongue!
Nola Hosts its 10th NFL Super Bowl Feb 3rd 2013

The years were 1970, 1972, 1975, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1990, 1997, and 2002







Quoting Patrap:
Epic Fail.

I go with the Horses Bit myself.

Coach has a Fine Home on the N Shore.

New Orleans Saints Coach Sean Payton discusses family's move to Dallas area
Published: Tuesday, February 08, 2011, 5:42 PM Updated: Tuesday, February 08, 2011, 6:17 PM
Mike Triplett, The Times-Picayune By Mike Triplett, The Times-Picayune






That is a cool commercial! If I remember right, they don't have state income tax (or maybe its sales tax)? Or both?

Anyone from Texas?
Quoting Patrap:
Nola Hosts its 10th NFL Super Bowl Feb 3rd 2013

The years were 1970, 1972, 1975, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1990, 1997, and 2002









Don't think Jerry's world is gonna see another one for awhile! What a mess, was like a soap oprea.
Why Super Bowl XLV Sucked
Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
Kate Rooney | February 8, 2011
Staff Writer


The league managed to upgrade 850 of those ticket-holders to other areas (where they were showered with free food, drink, and paraphernalia), but 400 fans were turned away with just the promise of a triple refund and a ticket to next year’s game (if, of course, there is a game).

As for the attendance record, despite conning fans into paying $200 a pop to sit in the frigid parking lot and watch the game on a projector, Jones came up 766 attendees short.

Once fans finally got to their seats and displaced NFL execs stopped pouting, everyone settled back to watch five Navy F-18 fighter jets fly over the stadium. Except, the retractable roof had to stay closed due to weather conditions. For the nearly $500,000 it spent on the jets, the NFL got a five-second television shot.

Yet, it’s easy to forgive when you’ve got one of the top recording artists of our day singing the National Anthem.






Quoting doorman79:


That is a cool commercial! If I remember right, they don't have state income tax (or maybe its sales tax)? Or both?

Anyone from Texas?


No income tax. Sales tax is 6.25%.
Quoting doorman79:


That is a cool commercial! If I remember right, they don't have state income tax (or maybe its sales tax)? Or both?

Anyone from Texas?

I am. We don't have a state income tax but we do have sales tax.

Quoting doorman79:


Don't think Jerry's world is gonna see another one for awhile! What a mess, was like a soap oprea.

That was really strange, especially considering how smoothly the Cotton Bowl ran.


About three-quarters of the western coast of Greenland still remain unfrozen including Jakobshavn Isbrae and much (around one-fifth) of Baffin Bay while the remaining area's sea ice concentration ranges between 50% and 90%.



Gulf Stream-origin warm anomalies still reach up the coast.



Here's the February 2010 sea ice concentration map in comparison, and the only other previous years in satellite history (post-1978) when any part of the Jakobshavn Isbrae outlet remained completely unfrozen as a February average were 2007, 2004 and 1986 while many other years had ice concentrations in the outlet bay itself at or approaching 100%.
From last night:

Two questions, this should stump someone here:

1. The Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant was hit by the severe part of Hurricane Andrew and yet, it wasn't significantly damaged and a bigger disaster was avoided. How so?

2. From Wiki:

The highest recorded surface gust, within Andrew's northern eyewall, occurred at the home of a resident about a mile from the shoreline in Perrine, Florida. During the peak of the storm, a gust of 212 miles per hour (341 km/h) was observed before both the home and anemometer were destroyed. Subsequent wind-tunnel testing at Clemson University of the same type of anemometer revealed a 16.5% error. The observed value was officially corrected to be 177 miles per hour (285 km/h).

Since Andrew was so powerful, what if it was 212 mph (which I believe was the correct reading)?
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I am. Not 100% positive here, but I believe that we don't have a state income tax but we do have sales tax.


That was really strange, especially considering how smoothly the Cotton Bowl ran.


Well that would explain why Sean would want to move back, but ya'll must have extremely high property taxes to comp for no income tax. No state runs for free.
Quoting Patrap:
Nola Hosts its 10th NFL Super Bowl Feb 3rd 2013

The years were 1970, 1972, 1975, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1990, 1997, and 2002

That'll tie you guys with Miami for first: 1968, 1969, 1971, 1976, 1979, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2007, and 2010.
NOLA fans drank "all" the Beer in Miami last Year and went home with the Lombardi Trophy.

Thanx for the reminder Nea.




Quoting Patrap:
NOLA fans drank "all" the Beer in Miami last Year and went home with the Lombardi Trophy.

Thanx for the reminder Nea.






Now thats funny!
Quoting doorman79:


Well that would explain why Sean would want to move back, but ya'll must have extremely high property taxes to comp for no income tax. No state runs for free.
Actually, expenses are made up for by taxes on Big Oil. When Eisenhower was running against Stephenson for President, Eisenhower said the tidelands, with their oil income, belonged to Texas; Stephenson said they belonged to the federal government. That was, I believe, the first time since the Civil War that Texas voted Republican.
Another bit of history: Texas was INVITED to join the Union, and when they chose to do so, they kept certain specific rights, including ownership of their public lands. This was the basis for their claim to the tidelands. End of lecture for today.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I am. We don't have a state income tax but we do have sales tax.


That was really strange, especially considering how smoothly the Cotton Bowl ran.

Property taxes, too.
Quoting lhwhelk:
Actually, expenses are made up for by taxes on Big Oil. When Eisenhower was running against Stephenson for President, Eisenhower said the tidelands, with their oil income, belonged to Texas; Stephenson said they belonged to the federal government. That was, I believe, the first time since the Civil War that Texas voted Republican.
Another bit of history: Texas was INVITED to join the Union, and when they chose to do so, they kept certain specific rights, including ownership of their public lands. This was the basis for their claim to the tidelands. End of lecture for today.


So why did the big oil companies migrate their corp offices to Texas? They don't have to pay fed taxes if in texas?
252. GW20
"A warmer forecast for February"

And not a moment too soon!

Quoting GW20:
"A warmer forecast for February"

And not a moment too soon!
I like you.
Quoting doorman79:


So why did the big oil companies migrate their corp offices to Texas? They don't have to pay fed taxes if in texas?


Of course they pay taxes.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I am. We don't have a state income tax but we do have sales tax.


That was really strange, especially considering how smoothly the Cotton Bowl ran.
Agreed, about the Cotton Bowl. Was lucky enough to go and I have no complaints.

And property tax in TX is quite a bit higher than in LA. In LA, the first $75k of a primary residence is exempt.
Complete Update






The Pale Blue Dot! :)



Interesting,,, the Reflections by Sagan via Wiki, is it not?

"From this distant vantage point, the Earth might not seem of particular interest. But for us, it's different. Look again at that dot. That's here, that's home, that's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.

The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner, how frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds.

Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.

It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known."
Quoting caneswatch:
From last night:

Two questions, this should stump someone here:

1. The Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant was hit by the severe part of Hurricane Andrew and yet, it wasn't significantly damaged and a bigger disaster was avoided. How so?

2. From Wiki:

The highest recorded surface gust, within Andrew's northern eyewall, occurred at the home of a resident about a mile from the shoreline in Perrine, Florida. During the peak of the storm, a gust of 212 miles per hour (341 km/h) was observed before both the home and anemometer were destroyed. Subsequent wind-tunnel testing at Clemson University of the same type of anemometer revealed a 16.5% error. The observed value was officially corrected to be 177 miles per hour (285 km/h).

Since Andrew was so powerful, what if it was 212 mph (which I believe was the correct reading)?



Agreed, ya young rascal.

The Big A, was particularly vicious.

Good post!



Carl Sagan is a favorite read of mine!

Thanks, Oss!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Anytime you are 30 degrees cooler than average down in the lattitudes which is closer to the equator is more impressive and ridiculous than near the poles and 54 degrees above average. Why? cuz it's almost near the tropics!!


And you also have to remember that the choice of the averaging period determines "average".

There's no consensus on which averaging period to use. They're more interested in the "trend".

Cooler averaging period means higher current anomalies.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Agreed, ya young rascal.

The Big A, was particularly vicious.

Good post!


Thanks PSL!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Carl Sagan is a favorite read of mine!

Thanks, Oss!




Yes, thanks, OSS. I like when the blog get a little philosophical
caneswatch ,, from last night if ya did not see it :)

Nightall!

Turkey Point is discussed here and specifically in the notes section, 13 and 14 :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Containment_building


"The Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station was hit directly by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Turkey Point has two fossil fuel units and two nuclear units. Over $90 million of damage was done, largely to a water tank and to a smokestack of one of the fossil-fueled units on-site, but the containment buildings were undamaged."
Quoting Grothar:




Yes, thanks, OSS. I like when the blog get a little philosophical so I can bore you all with my little "tidbits". Thornton Wilder's "Our Town" had a similar thought. Shows how important and insignificant we are at the same time:

"One of the most moving and thought-provoking excerpts in Our Town is when Rebecca Gibbs recounts to her brother George a letter that Jane Crofut received from her minister when she was ill. The minister addressed the envelope with grandiose flourish: "Jane Crofut; The Crofut Farm; Grover's Corners; Sutton County; New Hampshire; United States of America; Continent of North America; Western Hemisphere; the Earth; the Solar System; the Universe; the Mind of God" (p. 46). What do you think Thornton Wilder is proclaiming in this passage about man as an individual in the world?"


P.S. The weather in Grover's Corners was very warm that day. Just covering.



Oh no!
Grothar tidbits! Yikes ~~~ out>>>. :)

Quoting Ossqss:


Oh no!
Grothar tidbits! Yikes ~~~ out>>>. :)



LOL..funny !
Quoting Surfcropper:
Disney World draws the crowds year round

Its also protected by land in case the glaciers melt and flood the ocean.


Fortunately for us, glaciers melting won't do a whole lot. The amount of ice compared to the volume of water on the earth makes the amount of ice like a spec in comparison. Remember folks, water expand when it freezes, so that makes that scare of melting glaciers flooding coastal cities that much more unscientific and more political propaganda.


Even if water didn't expand as it freezes, it wouldn't make a difference in most places in the world. In fact, it would be like adding another gallon of water to an Olympic swimming pool and worrying about it flooding over. No sorry, even if all the glaciers melt, New York City, and my home town, the Tampa Bay area won't flood. The rise in water level will likely be too dang small to notice even if GW panic was right and all ice disappears.

Quoting KoritheMan:

I like you.
Guess what!.Vmax A.K.A Micheal Laca already has an account.And!! he personally knows the Doc himself!.The Doc and him are both good friends!
I don't know about you guys, but I'm happy to know this massive cold junk in the south has an end in sight... Looks like the Arctic Oscillation is changing.

Currently its 41.7 at my house in Central Florida. I can't wait for some consistently warmer weather. I like a taste of winter. However I am ready for spring now. It appears I may get my wish, warmer weather will be on the way!


The one good thing is, we continue to get more rain to help the drought. More will arrive on Thursday and Friday to help things out, probably about another 0.50 to 1 inch.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I don't know about you guys, but I'm happy to know this massive cold junk in the south has an end in sight... Looks like the Arctic Oscillation is changing.

Currently its 41.7 at my house in Central Florida. I can't wait for some consistently warmer weather. I like a taste of winter. However I am ready for spring now. It appears I may get my wish, warmer weather will be on the way!


The one good thing is, we continue to get more rain to help the drought. More will arrive on Thursday and Friday to help things out, probably about another 0.50 to 1 inch.


Yes ! I am so ready for a change too. Been soggy long enough !

Quoting washingtonian115:
Guess what!.Vmax A.K.A Micheal Laca already has an account.And!! he personally knows the Doc himself!.The Doc and him are both good friends!
Cool mang.
Quoting Surfcropper:


Pretty steady trend in 30 years. Anyone want to bet that this trend has been on going prior to 1979? The graph would look the same from 5500 BC-5470 BC, according to the Ancient Alien Ice Data Observation Clinic.


I see your point. If one is going to assume that FUTURE trend decreases at the same rate, then they have to assume it's been decreasing at the same rate for an equal time in the PAST.

So is there a chart that shows the level 32 years BEFORE 1978 (around 1946 or so), in which, if the trend followed, would have put the extent at 17 million square kilometers?
I noticed the warmer pattern indicated by the GFS and see 40s in the future, that's a heat wave here in Michigan. Just have to get through this week now, single digits tonight, cold out there!
Taking into account the age of the Earth, the 30 years of data presented here is unassailable.

I was wondering if you would take the time to chime in on a discussion that takes place on a regular basis between myself and my colleagues. It concerns the last great ice age. The two theories that we have settled on for the cause of the warming period that we (I say we, but as we weren't really there, well you know what I mean) experienced exist of:
1) Dinosaur flatulence
2) The proliferation of Cadillac Escalades driven by prehistoric greedy self-absorbed North American rich white men.
Number 1 is the strongest theory, for this reason. A lot of dinosaurs ate plants. And they ate a lot of plants. If you have ever eaten a lot of cabbage, you know where I coming from. Number 2 is losing steam. Try as they will, they cannot find any remains of these Escalades. Knowing that this latest warming period is being caused by greedy self-absorbed North American rich white men driving Cadillac Escalades has caused some of my colleagues to latch onto this theory as the cause of that other, earlier warming period. I tend to humor them as they get really nasty when an alternate theory (dinosaur flatulence for instance) is presented. For some odd reason, I see a lot of parallels in their nastiness with the "experts" researching the current warming period.

We have conclusively eliminated the AO and the NAO. Way back when, nobody knew what they were. Much the same as today.


Gotta sign off now. We are expecting another snow/ice storm in Texas tonight and tomorrow. And to think that during the summer months, it is routinely 100 plus degrees here. Strange days indeed.

Cheers
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20102011
10:00 AM Reunion February 9 2011
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05 (1001 hPa) located at 13.6S 55.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12HRS

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 13.9S 54.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
24 HRS: 14.0S 54.7E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 14.6S 54.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modéree)
72 HRS: 15.6S 54.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Deep convection (with cloud tops at -80C) is consolidating since the end of the night near the center that is estimated to be just to the east of main thunderstorm activity. Moderate easterly shear is forecast to maintain within the next two days.

Consequently, lower than average intensification rate is expected during that time. After that, upper level conditions improve significantly with lower shear under the upper level ridge and good outflow specially polewards. Therefore, stronger intensification rate is expected at that time. System is moving west southwestward along the northern side of the subtropical ridge. Within the next few days, a deep mid latitude trough is expected to be south of the system around 50E and generate a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This pattern should allow a gradual polewards turn and a slow down of the track. There is still some uncertainity about how far this system will make its turn. Present track forecast is based on a consensus of available tracks but it is worth notice that there is stronger than usual uncertainty specially at long range.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
275. IKE
6-10 day temps.......spring is in the air...soon.......


Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temps.......spring is in the air...soon.......



Good Morning Ike, Thats like a good song for me. Love the cold but its been here way to long. Really looks like a good warm up starting next week.
277. IKE

Quoting severstorm:

Good Morning Ike, Thats like a good song for me. Love the cold but its been here way to long. Really looks like a good warm up starting next week.
From what I've read it may stay warmer until the end of the month when a cool down happens. Nothing like what we've been through though.

It's 38.8 at my location this morning.
Quoting IKE:

From what I've read it may stay warmer until the end of the month when a cool down happens. Nothing like what we've been through though.

It's 38.8 at my location this morning.

Yes, Thats what i'm hearing to. Also i read that the severe weather in March and April could be more than normal. I have 34.6 at my place.
279. IKE

Quoting severstorm:

Yes, Thats what i'm hearing to. Also i read that the severe weather in March and April could be more than normal. I have 34.6 at my place.
It's clouded up here already. Another dreary day here.
27*F in Macon, Ga this morning with a warning:

Winter Storm Warning
Statement as of 6:00 AM CST on February 09, 2011


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 am
CST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for snow... which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to
6 am CST Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

A mixture of rain and snow will likely transition to all snow
Wednesday evening. The snow is then expected to taper off after
midnight. Average accumulations of one to three inches are
expected. Isolated areas of higher accumulations are possible. As
snow increases in coverage and intensity... and temperatures drop
below freezing... travel conditions could become hazardous.

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight...
food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.


19 just north of Austin TX
Good morning, everyone. Things are going well here since the fire. We're in a new doublewide on the property and beginning on the process to start rebuilding.

Once again we're under a winter weather advisory for sleet, snow and freezing rain. We should be seeing seventy degrees this month, ah well, it will happen soon. It doesn't stay like this for long in Louisiana.

Hope everyone is having a wonderful day.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Things are going well here since the fire. We're in a new doublewide on the property and beginning on the process to start rebuilding.

Once again we're under a winter weather advisory for sleet, snow and freezing rain. We should be seeing seventy degrees this month, ah well, it will happen soon. It doesn't stay like this for long in Louisiana.

Hope everyone is having a wonderful day.

Hey, welcome back. Really glad everything has been going well now. And expect a nice warmup in Louisiana after this brief cold snap.
Morning Cat5 and thank you. I'm more than ready for the warm up! Spring is my favorite time of year.
"Abilene Abilene, prettiest town I've ever seen..."

10 degrees in Abilene, TX with a wind chill of -10.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning Cat5 and thank you. I'm more than ready for the warm up! Spring is my favorite time of year.

Yep. Time for everyone to come out of hibernation.
Good morning. It is a chilly 66 degrees here in Key West today. Lots of sun though so it should warm up nicely.
Quoting caneswatch:
From last night:

Two questions, this should stump someone here:

1. The Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant was hit by the severe part of Hurricane Andrew and yet, it wasn't significantly damaged and a bigger disaster was avoided. How so?

2. From Wiki:

The highest recorded surface gust, within Andrew's northern eyewall, occurred at the home of a resident about a mile from the shoreline in Perrine, Florida. During the peak of the storm, a gust of 212 miles per hour (341 km/h) was observed before both the home and anemometer were destroyed. Subsequent wind-tunnel testing at Clemson University of the same type of anemometer revealed a 16.5% error. The observed value was officially corrected to be 177 miles per hour (285 km/h).

Since Andrew was so powerful, what if it was 212 mph (which I believe was the correct reading)?


1. Maybe the shape and the high standard of construction kept it from being damaged.

2. If the Clemson University tested the same type anemometer and found it was out, then I would say the anemometer was defective and gave the wrong reading, so the corrected reading would be more or less correct.
Massive Arctic Blast cutting Texas in half this morning, massive temperature drops ongoing
We have a WS Warning as well here in far eastern NC....should be fun night. Go snow day!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Things are going well here since the fire. We're in a new doublewide on the property and beginning on the process to start rebuilding.

Once again we're under a winter weather advisory for sleet, snow and freezing rain. We should be seeing seventy degrees this month, ah well, it will happen soon. It doesn't stay like this for long in Louisiana.

Hope everyone is having a wonderful day.
I didn't realize you were in LA. Where?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hey, welcome back. Really glad everything has been going well now. And expect a nice warmup in Louisiana after this brief cold snap.
As much as I despise summer, I am ready to drive down the highway with the top down, with the windows dropped, and the heat not on full blast, for a change.

(Yes, I have been driving with the top down...in my car that's bearable with a light jacket up until about 25 F.)
Quoting caneswatch:
From last night:

Two questions, this should stump someone here:

1. The Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant was hit by the severe part of Hurricane Andrew and yet, it wasn't significantly damaged and a bigger disaster was avoided. How so?

2. From Wiki:

The highest recorded surface gust, within Andrew's northern eyewall, occurred at the home of a resident about a mile from the shoreline in Perrine, Florida. During the peak of the storm, a gust of 212 miles per hour (341 km/h) was observed before both the home and anemometer were destroyed. Subsequent wind-tunnel testing at Clemson University of the same type of anemometer revealed a 16.5% error. The observed value was officially corrected to be 177 miles per hour (285 km/h).

Since Andrew was so powerful, what if it was 212 mph (which I believe was the correct reading)?

1) There was a lot of damage, but the containment building was built to hold up in winds as strong as 235 mph (a Cat 7, if there were such a classification), or roughly 90 mph faster than were felt at the facility. Too, protocol is for a plant to shut down prior to a landfalling storm; TP started shutting down 12 hours before Andrew made landfall. (http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/gen -comm/info-notices/1993/in93053.html)

2) I was in Cutler Ridge for Andrew, and he was bad, but I have a hard time believing he was 35 mph faster than 177. Fowey Rocks had a peak gust of about 170 mph at 130 feet just before the tower broke. The highest one-minute speed in the northern eyewall at 10,000 feet just before landfall was 186 mph. And the MCP of 922mb only correlates with 155 mph. Then again, the NHC says damage two miles south of the Perrine anemometer was even worse than that found at the Perrine location, so who knows? I just know this much: as much as I like storms, particularly tropical weather, I never want to go through that again. ;-) (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html)
Quoting Neapolitan:

1) There was a lot of damage, but the containment building was built to hold up in winds as strong as 235 mph (a Cat 7, if there were such a classification), or roughly 90 mph faster than were felt at the facility. Too, protocol is for a plant to shut down prior to a landfalling storm; TP started shutting down 12 hours before Andrew made landfall. (http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/gen -comm/info-notices/1993/in93053.html)

2) I was in Cutler Ridge for Andrew, and he was bad, but I have a hard time believing he was 35 mph faster than 177. Fowey Rocks had a peak gust of about 170 mph at 130 feet just before the tower broke. The highest one-minute speed in the northern eyewall at 10,000 feet just before landfall was 186 mph. And the MCP of 922mb only correlates with 155 mph. Then again, the NHC says damage two miles south of the Perrine anemometer was even worse than that found at the Perrine location, so who knows? I just know this much: as much as I like storms, particularly tropical weather, I never want to go through that again. ;-) (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html)
Thanks for the link Nea. Even though the lower Keys were not affected directly by Andrew, it certainly put a hurting on our 150 mile extension cord to the mainland. A lot of people evacuated the keys only to stop in Cutler Ridge and sit through a horrible storm. I don't care how bad the storm is, I will NEVER evacuate toward an approaching storm. If I am going to die, I would rather die at home than sitting in a car in a gridlock situation on the turnpike. Even though the storm was a tremendous tragedy for a lot of people, I think Homestead is much improved with the rebuilding that went on. Not to mention our construction codes. I still have the Miami Herald edition with all the pictures of destruction. And I was amazed at how many people survived with their houses falling apart around them.
I thought this Arctic front was supposed to go more east to the SE States, instead it's plunged straight into TX just like last weeks blast. Another blown forecast
Quoting AussieStorm:
Icelandic volcano 'set to erupt'



its last major eruption occurred in 1477 when it produced a large ash and pumice fallout. It also produced the largest known lava flow during the past 10,000 years on earth.
Quoting JFLORIDA:



its last major eruption occurred in 1477 when it produced a large ash and pumice fallout. It also produced the largest known lava flow during the past 10,000 years on earth.

Yea, I saw that. 21-30 km/3 spread over 950 km/2. That's a lot of lava...
Quoting JFLORIDA:



its last major eruption occurred in 1477 when it produced a large ash and pumice fallout. It also produced the largest known lava flow during the past 10,000 years on earth.

Have to add it is only the second largest Volcano in Iceland. Watch and wait to see if it progresses to eruption and then at what level.
Complete Update





Grothar.... you have mail...

:)



SQUAWK!!!!!

:)
Quoting Neapolitan:

1) There was a lot of damage, but the containment building was built to hold up in winds as strong as 235 mph (a Cat 7, if there were such a classification), or roughly 90 mph faster than were felt at the facility. Too, protocol is for a plant to shut down prior to a landfalling storm; TP started shutting down 12 hours before Andrew made landfall. (http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/gen -comm/info-notices/1993/in93053.html)

2) I was in Cutler Ridge for Andrew, and he was bad, but I have a hard time believing he was 35 mph faster than 177. Fowey Rocks had a peak gust of about 170 mph at 130 feet just before the tower broke. The highest one-minute speed in the northern eyewall at 10,000 feet just before landfall was 186 mph. And the MCP of 922mb only correlates with 155 mph. Then again, the NHC says damage two miles south of the Perrine anemometer was even worse than that found at the Perrine location, so who knows? I just know this much: as much as I like storms, particularly tropical weather, I never want to go through that again. ;-) (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html)



I'm sure in general sense, Andrew did not produce gusts of 212 mph, but here's the problem. What about when we look at damage surveys and we see some buildings crushed and others spared? It has been proven that hurricanes, particularly strong and intensifying ones, have small but extremely strong vortices within the eye wall. If one of those happened to move over that location, 212 mph isn't hard to believe at all.


Link

Quoting AussieStorm:


1. Maybe the shape and the high standard of construction kept it from being damaged.

2. If the Clemson University tested the same type anemometer and found it was out, then I would say the anemometer was defective and gave the wrong reading, so the corrected reading would be more or less correct.


Read my post on hurricane mesovortices. Not to say their research was wrong about anemometer testing. However, they tested it in an attempt to prove winds weren't that strong in Hurricane Andrew. I beg to differ, although yes it could have been the anemometer malfunctioning, the other explanation is that mesovortices could easily be the culprit for such an incredibly high wind observation. However, we will never know for sure.
15 degrees in Arlington where Super Bowl was
17 Degrees in Dallas
19 degrees in Corsicana
25 degrees and falling in San Antonio

Front passed NW counties and 26 degrees and falling in Brenham
I was in Andrew as well, but you have to remember as well that the one spotlight that was shown on Cutler Ridge was the shoddy construction throughout those areas that were hard hit. You have to remember that when talking about Andrew, that the ways in which some buildings were constructed was brought to light.
AMY!!!!!
45 degrees and light rain just SW of Houston it was 50 degrees last night.
The wheat failure in Russia - cereals and grains in Africa, vegetables, fruits and rice in Asia and Australia was no surprise - everyone focused on the extreme casualty weather event needs to take a step back and look at what just occurred.

Also they need to realize the more disreputable, the chronically dis-proven and corrupt would try to use it a as a means of attack. The Biofuel argument is absurd here but is still being floated as the cause of this food crisis.

It wasn't just crops involved in biofuels and the surpluses in food we once enjoined are giving way to shortages.

Statement By WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran On The Role Of Food In Civil Unrest Across The Middle East

This upward pressure adds further stress to the carefully calibrated systems in place to bring enough food into countries to feed hungry populations, and provide the subsidies that ensure it is sold at prices that are accessible to the poor and the vulnerable.

We are entering an era of food volatility and disruptions in supplies. This is a very serious business for the world. We think that we are in an era where we have to be very serious about food supply.
I'm confused, does the reduction of Arctic Sea Ice cause the weaker Polar Vortex or does a weaker Polar Vortex cause a reduction of Arctic Sea Ice?? The comments in this blog seem to state both:

"It is possible that Arctic sea ice loss is largely responsible for the unusual Arctic Oscillation pattern we've observed during the past two winters, as well as for the record-strength ridges of high pressure observed over Greenland and Alaska this winter"

and

"Over the past two weeks, the Arctic Oscillation has undergone a major transition, changing from negative to positive. This means that low pressure over the Arctic has intensified, which will act to speed up the counter-clockwise spinning winds (the polar vortex.) This spin-up of the polar vortex will tend to keep cold air bottled up the Arctic, leading to more Arctic sea ice formation and warmer winter conditions over the U.S"
312. DEKRE
Quoting awatland:
I'm confused, does the reduction of Arctic Sea Ice cause the weaker Polar Vortex or does a weaker Polar Vortex cause a reduction of Arctic Sea Ice?? ...


This is called "Feedback"

None of the parameters in the atmosphere are independent, you change one, you change everything else at the same time. A nightmare for modeling
Quoting awatland:
I'm confused, does the reduction of Arctic Sea Ice cause the weaker Polar Vortex or does a weaker Polar Vortex cause a reduction of Arctic Sea Ice?? The comments in this blog seem to state both:

"It is possible that Arctic sea ice loss is largely responsible for the unusual Arctic Oscillation pattern we've observed during the past two winters, as well as for the record-strength ridges of high pressure observed over Greenland and Alaska this winter"

and

"Over the past two weeks, the Arctic Oscillation has undergone a major transition, changing from negative to positive. This means that low pressure over the Arctic has intensified, which will act to speed up the counter-clockwise spinning winds (the polar vortex.) This spin-up of the polar vortex will tend to keep cold air bottled up the Arctic, leading to more Arctic sea ice formation and warmer winter conditions over the U.S"


It can be both; however, when there is less sea ice in the first place, as there is in recent years, it delays the formation of the seasonal polar vortex (the normal condition) due to the heat released into the atmosphere, which warms the air and increases heights (the polar vortex, like other low pressure areas, is an area of low heights).

There is good evidence to support this as well; until Hudson Bay completely froze over, there was a large area of temperature anomalies to 20°C or more (averaged over a month) centered right where there was open water, compared to average - but it cooled down right as it completely froze over, which to me isn't a coincidence (it happened before the Arctic Oscillation changed as well):



Quoting MichaelSTL:


It can be both; however, when there is less sea ice in the first place, as there is in recent years, it delays the formation of the seasonal polar vortex (the normal condition) due to the heat released into the atmosphere, which warms the air and increases heights (the polar vortex, like other low pressure areas, is an area of low heights).

There is good evidence to support this as well; until Hudson Bay completely froze over, there was a large area of temperature anomalies to 20°C or more (averaged over a month) centered right where there was open water, compared to average - but it cooled down right as it completely froze over, which to me isn't a coincidence (it happened before the Arctic Oscillation changed as well):





Thanks for the reply. So what I gather from this is that basically the initial formation of Arctic Sea Ice coincides somewhat with the formation of the Polar Vortex. Once these two "connected" things occur, it creates a situation where the Polar Vortex intensifies the cooling in the region and increases the extent of the Artic Sea pack. So it becomes an issue of timing. If it takes longer for the initial ice to form it takes longer for the Polar Votex to form and there is less time to thicken and extend the Sea Ice in the Arctic region.
Quoting awatland:
I'm confused, does the reduction of Arctic Sea Ice cause the weaker Polar Vortex or does a weaker Polar Vortex cause a reduction of Arctic Sea Ice?? The comments in this blog seem to state both:

"It is possible that Arctic sea ice loss is largely responsible for the unusual Arctic Oscillation pattern we've observed during the past two winters, as well as for the record-strength ridges of high pressure observed over Greenland and Alaska this winter"

and

"Over the past two weeks, the Arctic Oscillation has undergone a major transition, changing from negative to positive. This means that low pressure over the Arctic has intensified, which will act to speed up the counter-clockwise spinning winds (the polar vortex.) This spin-up of the polar vortex will tend to keep cold air bottled up the Arctic, leading to more Arctic sea ice formation and warmer winter conditions over the U.S"


These statements don't really contradict each other. When there is an area that lacks sea ice that should be covered in ice a high tends to build there, blocking the polar vortex. This weakens the polar vortex & tends to spill the cold air south toward the equator while northern latitudes generally have a warmer spell. This year the Hudson Bay failing to freeze on schedule caused the cold to spill over the SE United States (despite La Nina), while the polar vortex was weak & disrupted. Now the NAO has changed since enough of the Arctic has froze that the polar low can strengthen over the northern latitudes~ helping sea ice increase, keeping the arctic cooler & the lower latitudes warmer.
Sea ice hasn't really responded to the change in the AO yet, although I suppose there is a lag; of course, the AO isn't the only factor that determines ice extent:





Also, a positive AO increases the export of ice out of the Arctic, which reduces the amount of old ice present, while a negative AO keeps it in the Arctic, although it brings warmer temperatures. In addition, a new pattern called the Arctic Dipole has lately become dominant over the AO in determining ice loss. See Dr. Masters' blog here:

A new atmospheric pattern emerges: the Arctic Dipole

In a 2008 article titled, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system Zhang et al. show that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice since 2001 has been accompanied by a radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns, into a new mode they call the Arctic Rapid change Pattern. The new atmospheric circulation pattern has also been recognized by other researchers, who refer to it as the Arctic Dipole (Richter-Menge et al., 2009). The old atmospheric patterns that controlled Arctic weather--the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which featured air flow that tended to circle the pole, now alternate with the new Arctic Dipole pattern. The Arctic Dipole pattern features anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic, and low pressure on the Eurasian side.
Quoting awatland:
I'm confused, does the reduction of Arctic Sea Ice cause the weaker Polar Vortex or does a weaker Polar Vortex cause a reduction of Arctic Sea Ice?? The comments in this blog seem to state both:

"It is possible that Arctic sea ice loss is largely responsible for the unusual Arctic Oscillation pattern we've observed during the past two winters, as well as for the record-strength ridges of high pressure observed over Greenland and Alaska this winter"

and

"Over the past two weeks, the Arctic Oscillation has undergone a major transition, changing from negative to positive. This means that low pressure over the Arctic has intensified, which will act to speed up the counter-clockwise spinning winds (the polar vortex.) This spin-up of the polar vortex will tend to keep cold air bottled up the Arctic, leading to more Arctic sea ice formation and warmer winter conditions over the U.S"

Its a positive feedback. Weaker vortex causes more ice melt. More ice melt means the vortex becomes even weaker, due in part to changed albedo (ocean vs. ice).
Wonder what he thinks about ocean acidification and Mercury contamination.
Evil Oceans Produce 16 Times As Much CO2 As Humans


Posted on February 8, 2011 by stevengoddard


Maybe we can tax the oceans?

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography -book/carboncycle.htm

Another epic Fail from the Big Wind..

LOL
That happens roughly half the time I use the rich text feature, it can be useful though when its not glitching up on you.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Wonder what he thinks about ocean acidification and Mercury contamination.


I think its terrible. Some of my favorite things to eat get affected down the eco-line. Remember all the dangerous things in the world before the nineties? Those lead fishing weights? I used to put those things in my mouth, like draw breakers tasting the ocean salt. Maybe that's why I'm the way I am now..
:0
Quoting Surfcropper:


I think its terrible. Some of my favorite things to eat get affected down the eco-line. Remember all the dangerous things in the world before the nineties? Those lead fishing weights? I used to put those things in my mouth, like draw breakers tasting the ocean salt. Maybe that's why I'm the way I am now..
:0


So you're saying what? There should be no regulations on what we can dump in the environment?

The rich (the ones that own and run the companies that complain about regulations) make sure they live far from any pollution. Anti-regulatory ideas are the guff they sell to the gulllible or to the politicians.
Quoting greentortuloni:


So you're saying what? There should be no regulations on what we can dump in the environment?

The rich (the ones that own and run the companies that complain about regulations) make sure they live far from any pollution. Anti-regulatory ideas are the guff they sell to the gulllible or to the politicians.


Are you kidding me? LOL

What grade did you get in reading comprehension in 3rd grade?

I think its terrible [all the junk that finds its way into the ocean, man-made, robot-made, natural elements that shouldn't be there, asteroids, the trans-atlantic cable,].

But I am all for the sinking of structures to produce artificial reefs. Eventhough the materials of such structures may not be natural to the environment, I've seen first hand what it produces in a short period of time. I think its very chivalric of the human to adopt such actions for our aquatic mutant cousins.


Quoting MichaelSTL:


It can be both; however, when there is less sea ice in the first place, as there is in recent years, it delays the formation of the seasonal polar vortex (the normal condition) due to the heat released into the atmosphere, which warms the air and increases heights (the polar vortex, like other low pressure areas, is an area of low heights).

There is good evidence to support this as well; until Hudson Bay completely froze over, there was a large area of temperature anomalies to 20C or more (averaged over a month) centered right where there was open water, compared to average - but it cooled down right as it completely froze over, which to me isn't a coincidence (it happened before the Arctic Oscillation changed as well):





No. Assuming the air directly above is in or near thermal equilibrium with the ocean (which is true most of the time in the high and low latitudes), if there is less ice in the first place, then there was already a greater amount of energy in the air in the first place which was why there was less ice to begin with. There is no "extra" heat being transfered to the air after the event of less sea ice being present. You can't bring up albedo either because we are talking about the polar night during the winter where there is no direct solar radiation energy.

The delay in the maturation of the polar vortex during a low sea-ice winter would be directly due to the already higher level of energy in the atmosphere, which caused the loss of sea ice in the first place.

Note: This doesn't consider atmosphere-independent ocean heating due to ocean currents and meridional overturning circulation oscillations like the AMO which does modulate sea ice. However, as we are clearly talking about AGW here, the concern is with changes in the atmosphere for this particular point. Note that this also means that the most probable cause for the large blocking high in SE Canada this winter was the exceptionally high AMO and Atlantic Tripole values during November and December which transport warm water to the high latitudes of the Atlantic, and are independent of any long-term warming trend.
Quoting Surfcropper:


Are you kidding me? LOL

What grade did you get in reading comprehension in 3rd grade?

I think its terrible [all the junk that finds its way into the ocean, man-made, robot-made, natural elements that shouldn't be there, asteroids, the trans-atlantic cable,].

But I am all for the sinking of structures to produce artificial reefs. Eventhough the materials of such structures may not be natural to the environment, I've seen first hand what it produces in a short period of time. I think its very chivalric of the human to adopt such actions for our aquatic mutant cousins.




Fair enough. I assumed sarcasm. My bad. Apologies.
Quoting jwh250:
Maybe we can tax the oceans?



I think so.
Quoting jwh250:
Evil Oceans Produce 16 Times As Much CO2 As Humans


Posted on February 8, 2011 by stevengoddard


Maybe we can tax the oceans?

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography -book/carboncycle.htm



remember Global Warming activists worship the Earth, mother nature is sacred because we evolved from it, the goddess gaia wills for us not to tax her oceans. She said to tax and to take away American freedoms :)
Quoting greentortuloni:


So you're saying what? There should be no regulations on what we can dump in the environment?

The rich (the ones that own and run the companies that complain about regulations) make sure they live far from any pollution. Anti-regulatory ideas are the guff they sell to the gulllible or to the politicians.



No there shouldn't be a removal of any regulation, early America, the Industrial Age, gives a great example why no regulation is bad.

However, some of us, still have our sanity, some of us, don't worship mother earth, and some of us try to find balance rather than wacked out panic over GW propaganda. Some of us believe in learning how to improve the environment, but aren't wacked out nut-cases that want utter removal of all things leading to the supposed end of the world do to Global Warming. Some of us actually have enough sanity and balance left to care about the environment. Yet realize regulating will destroy American freedoms as well as collapse society as we know it.
Quoting Jedkins01:



No there shouldn't be a removal of any regulation, early America, the Industrial Age, gives a great example why no regulation is bad.

However, some of us, still have our sanity, some of us, don't worship mother earth, and some of us try to find balance rather than wacked out panic over GW propaganda. Some of us believe in learning how to improve the environment, but aren't wacked out nut-cases that want utter removal of all things leading to the supposed end of the world do to Global Warming. Some of us actually have enough sanity and balance left to care about the environment. Yet realize regulating will destroy American freedoms as well as collapse society as we know it.


I dunno, you seem to be pretty certifiable. Btw, what are these American freedoms that are not normal elsewhere that you are so busy defending?
Quoting FFtrombi:


I dunno, you seem to be pretty certifiable. Btw, what are these American freedoms that are not normal elsewhere that you are so busy defending?


Compare our freedoms to Canada and Britian. Go ahead have fun. Oops my computer says I misspelled Britian but idc.
Quoting awatland:
I'm confused, does the reduction of Arctic Sea Ice cause the weaker Polar Vortex or does a weaker Polar Vortex cause a reduction of Arctic Sea Ice?? The comments in this blog seem to state both:

"It is possible that Arctic sea ice loss is largely responsible for the unusual Arctic Oscillation pattern we've observed during the past two winters, as well as for the record-strength ridges of high pressure observed over Greenland and Alaska this winter"

and

"Over the past two weeks, the Arctic Oscillation has undergone a major transition, changing from negative to positive. This means that low pressure over the Arctic has intensified, which will act to speed up the counter-clockwise spinning winds (the polar vortex.) This spin-up of the polar vortex will tend to keep cold air bottled up the Arctic, leading to more Arctic sea ice formation and warmer winter conditions over the U.S"


When considering oscillations, they are just ways of measuring regional changes; from temperature, wind direction, pressure, ect. These changes are usually caused by multiple factors, although their effects are weighted differently. In my opinion the lack of sea ice is a secondary factor, while the increase in ocean temperature is the primary. The lack of sea ice is mainly due to the continuous decline in volume over the years which is now showing up in area measurements. I've said this a few times now, the high pressure is from rising heat/moisture from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans; which are forcing the polar vortex to shift over the continents. If you have even seen a simulation of fluid dynamics, depending on certain variables the motions undergo different oscillations. Recently an unstable form was occurring as the arctic mass in general is weak, while the tropical masses are stronger.

#1 factor in climate change is the ocean, next are smaller bodies of water and ice sheets, and then come glaciers, surface and atmospheric temperatures. Our current influx of energy (heat) is over 4 times what we use for primary fuel consumption, which is due to greenhouse gases; which we put there over hundreds of years. The climate and its effects on society are advancing much more rapidly than most are willing to accept.
Greetings all, I don't usually post much preferring to lurk most of the time but ran across this article in Slate and couldnt resist passing it on:
Link
enjoy, (back to lurking)
Quoting Patrap:
Well,,were screwed as screwed can be with Leadership like this maroon.

Yeah, Upton is another perfect example of just why politics needs to stay out of science. On the one hand, thousands of certified life-long climatologists saying the planet is warming up due to decades of unimpeded CO2. On the other hand, a non-climatologist heavily beholden to fossil fuel interests declaring that AGW is a fraud.

Guys like Upton are interested in taking away our rights as not just Americans, but as humans. To him and his ilk, profit is the only thing that matters. Profit over people. Profit over common sense. Profit over all. The future will judge him harshly--but by then it will be too late.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, Upton is another perfect example of just why politics needs to stay out of science. On the one hand, thousands of certified life-long climatologists saying the planet is warming up due to decades of unimpeded CO2. On the other hand, a non-climatologist heavily beholden to fossil fuel interests declaring that AGW is a fraud.

Guys like Upton are interested in taking away our rights as not just Americans, but as humans. To him and his ilk, profit is the only thing that matters. Profit over people. Profit over common sense. Profit over all. The future will judge him harshly--but by then it will be too late.


Who are these thousands of certified life-long climatologists you bring up?
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BINGIZA (05-20102011)
22:00 PM Reunion February 9 2011
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bingiza (996 hPa) located at 13.7 54.6 has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 13.9S 54.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modéree)
24 HRS: 14.2S 54.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modéree)
48 HRS: 15.1S 54.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.3S 53.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system has intensified and has been named BINGIZA by the weather service of Madagascar. Convection has significantly strengthened and is wrapping around the center for the latest hours. Moderate easterly shear is expected to maintain within the next 36 hours. Consequently as slower intensification is expected. After that (Friday night), upper level conditions is expected to improve significantly with lower shear under the upper level ridge and good outflow specially polewards. Therefore, a stronger intensification rate is expected by that time. System is moving west southwest along the western side of the subtropical ridge. Tomorrow a deep mid latitude trough is expected to be south of the system around 50E and generate a strong weakness in the subtropical ridge. This pattern should allow a gradual polewards turn and a slow down of the track. Latest models from 0:00Z agree with this southward turn for Friday and Saturday. At longer range, some models like UKMO show a more southwestward track under the steering influence of a ridge located to the southwest of the system and other models like the very last ECMWF show a now southward track. Present forecast is based on a consensus of all available models.

INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Quoting FFtrombi:


I dunno, you seem to be pretty certifiable. Btw, what are these American freedoms that are not normal elsewhere that you are so busy defending?
Name calling otherwise known as free speech?
Quoting HaloReachFan:


Who are these thousands of certified life-long climatologists you bring up?


Yea that's what I thought. You have no idea how many states we have and you won't comment on what I asked.
try to find balance rather than wacked out panic over GW propaganda.

I want to know what "panic" is - as nothign has been done for 30 years - gas and FF is at near a all time high - two wars in the Mideast - Climate disasters mounting. Crop disasters. Permafrost melt, Alpine forest dying, Ocean Acidification and mercury content so high you have to limit seafood and freshwater fish intake.

What exactly is "panic" in this situation? Considering really nothign is done and we still subsidize FF to an extent.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
try to find balance rather than wacked out panic over GW propaganda.

I want to know what "panic" is - as nothign has been done for 30 years - gas and FF is at near a all time high - two wars in the Mideast - Climate disasters mounting. Crop disasters. Permafrost melt, Alpine forest dying, Ocean Acidification and mercury content so high you have to limit seafood and freshwater fish intake.

What exactly is "panic" in this situation? Considering really nothign is done and we still subsidize FF to an extent.
IMPO, I think the answer is NOW!

Quoting Patrap:
Well,,were screwed as screwed can be with Leadership like this maroon.

House Energy Committee Chairman Fred Upton Denies Human Role In Climate Change (VIDEO)


+ 1,000,000,000

The sad thing is that those on the Titanic that did not believe the ship would sink also did not prevent others from getting on the lifeboats. What we are seeing now is the burning of the lifeboats before anyone can put them to use. Fifty years from now, Fred Upton will be dead and will care less if he was right or wrong.


Quoting JFLORIDA:
try to find balance rather than wacked out panic over GW propaganda.

I want to know what "panic" is - as nothign has been done for 30 years - gas and FF is at near a all time high - two wars in the Mideast - Climate disasters mounting. Crop disasters. Permafrost melt, Alpine forest dying, Ocean Acidification and mercury content so high you have to limit seafood and freshwater fish intake.

What exactly is "panic" in this situation? Considering really nothign is done and we still subsidize FF to an extent.


Not to mention this:

ANALYSIS - Somali pirates grow bolder, world response lags

Somali pirates seized their second oil tanker in two days on Wednesday, capturing a Greek ship carrying Kuwaiti oil to the United States after taking an Italian oil vessel.

"The piracy situation is now spinning out of control," said Joe Angelo, managing director of industry association INTERTANKO. "If piracy in the Indian Ocean is left unabated, it will strangle... crucial shipping lanes with the potential to severely disrupt oil flows to the US and the rest of the world."
It is a bad time for any kind of disruption. There are a number of upward price pressures coming into play now.
February 8, 2011

To the Members of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate:

In reply to “The Importance of Science in Addressing Climate Change”


On 28 January 2011, eighteen scientists sent a letter to members of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate urging them to “take a fresh look at climate change.” Their intent, apparently, was to disparage the views of scientists who disagree with their contention that continued business-as-usual increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions produced from the burning of coal, gas, and oil will lead to a host of cataclysmic climate-related problems.
We, the undersigned, totally disagree with them and would like to take this opportunity to briefly state our side of the story.

The eighteen climate alarmists (as we refer to them, not derogatorily, but simply because they view themselves as “sounding the alarm” about so many things climatic) state that the people of the world “need to prepare for massive flooding from the extreme storms of the sort being experienced with increasing frequency,” as well as the “direct health impacts from heat waves” and “climate-sensitive infectious diseases,” among a number of other devastating phenomena. And they say that “no research results have produced any evidence that challenges the overall scientific understanding of what is happening to our planet’s climate,” which is understood to mean their view of what is happening to Earth’s climate.

To these statements, however, we take great exception. It is the eighteen climate alarmists who appear to be unaware of “what is happening to our planet’s climate,” as well as the vast amount of research that has produced that knowledge.

For example, a lengthy review of their claims and others that climate alarmists frequently make can be found on the Web site of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (see http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/pruden tpath/prudentpath.php). That report offers a point-by-point rebuttal of all of the claims of the “group of eighteen,” citing in every case peer-reviewed scientific research on the actual effects of climate change during the past several decades.

If the “group of eighteen” pleads ignorance of this information due to its very recent posting, then we call their attention to an even larger and more comprehensive report published in 2009, Climate Change Reconsidered: The 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). That document has been posted for more than a year in its entirety at www.nipccreport.org.

These are just two recent compilations of scientific research among many we could cite. Do the 678 scientific studies referenced in the CO2 Science document, or the thousands of studies cited in the NIPCC report, provide real-world evidence (as opposed to theoretical climate model predictions) for global warming-induced increases in the worldwide number and severity of
floods? No. In the global number and severity of droughts? No. In the number and severity of hurricanes and other storms? No.

Do they provide any real-world evidence of Earth’s seas inundating coastal lowlands around the globe? No. Increased human mortality? No. Plant and animal extinctions? No. Declining vegetative productivity? No. More frequent and deadly coral bleaching? No. Marine life dissolving away in acidified oceans? No.
Quite to the contrary, in fact, these reports provide extensive empirical evidence that these things are not happening. And in many of these areas, the referenced papers report finding just the opposite response to global warming, i.e., biosphere-friendly effects of rising temperatures and rising CO2 levels.

In light of the profusion of actual observations of the workings of the real world showing little or no negative effects of the modest warming of the second half of the twentieth century, and indeed growing evidence of positive effects, we find it incomprehensible that the eighteen climate alarmists could suggest something so far removed from the truth as their claim that no research results have produced any evidence that challenges their view of what is happening to Earth’s climate and weather.

But don’t take our word for it. Read the two reports yourselves. And then make up your own minds about the matter. Don’t be intimidated by false claims of “scientific consensus” or “overwhelming proof.” These are not scientific arguments and they are simply not true.

Like the eighteen climate alarmists, we urge you to take a fresh look at climate change. We believe you will find that it is not the horrendous environmental threat they and others have made it out to be, and that they have consistently exaggerated the negative effects of global warming on the U.S. economy, national security, and public health, when such effects may well be small to negligible.

Signed by:
Syun-Ichi Akasofu, University of Alaska1
Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania
James Barrante, Southern Connecticut State University1
John Boring, University of Virginia
Roger Cohen, American Physical Society Fellow
David Douglass, University of Rochester
Don Easterbrook, Western Washington University1
Robert Essenhigh, The Ohio State University1
Martin Fricke, Senior Fellow, American Physical Society
Lee Gerhard, University of Kansas1
Ulrich Gerlach, The Ohio State University
Victor Goldschmidt, Purdue University1
Guillermo Gonzalez, Grove City College
Laurence Gould, University of Hartford
Bill Gray, Colorado State University1
Will Happer, Princeton University2
Howard Hayden, University of Connecticut1
Craig Idso, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
Sherwood Idso, USDA, U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory1
Richard Keen, University of Colorado1
Doral Kemper, USDA, Agricultural Research Service1
Hugh Kendrick, Office of Nuclear Reactor Programs, DOE1
Richard Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology2
Anthony Lupo, University of Missouri
Patrick Michaels, Cato Institute
Donald Nielsen, University of California, Davis1
Al Pekarek, St. Cloud State University
John Rhoads, Midwestern State University1
Nicola Scafetta, Duke University
Gary Sharp, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study
S. Fred Singer, University of Virginia1
Roy Spencer, University of Alabama
George Taylor, Past President, American Association of State Climatologists
Frank Tipler, Tulane University
Leonard Weinstein, National Institute of Aerospace Senior Research Fellow
Samuel Werner, University of Missouri1
Bruce West, American Physical Society Fellow
Thomas Wolfram, University of Missouri1
1 - Emeritus or Retired
2 - Member of the National Academy of Sciences
Endorsed by:
Rodney Armstrong, Geophysicist
Richard Becherer, University of Connecticut1
Edwin Berry, Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Joseph Bevelacqua, Bevelacqua Resources
Carmen Catanese, American Physical Society Member
Roy Clark, Ventura Photonics
John Coleman, Meteorologist KUSI TV
Darrell Connelly, Geophysicist
Joseph D'Aleo, Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Terry Donze, Geophysicist1
Mike Dubrasich, Western Institute for Study of the Environment
John Dunn, American Council on Science and Health of NYC
Dick Flygare, Engineer
Michael Fox, Nuclear industry/scientist
Gordon Fulks, Gordon Fulks and Associates
Steve Goreham, Climate Science Coalition of America
Ken Haapala, Science & Environmental Policy Project
Martin Hertzberg, Bureau of Mines1
Art Horn, Meteorologist
Keith Idso, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
Jay Lehr, The Heartland Institute
Robert Lerine, Industrial and Defense Research and Engineering1
Peter Link, Geologist
James Macdonald, Chief Meteorologist for the Travelers Weather Service1
Roger Matson, Society of Independent Professional Earth Scientists
Tony Pann, Meteorologist WBAL TV
Ned Rasor, Consulting Physicist
James Rogers, Geologist1
Norman Rogers, National Association of Scholars
Rene Rogers, Litton Electron Devices1
Bruce Schwoegler, MySky Communications, Inc.
Thomas Sheahen, Western Technology Incorporated
James Spann, Chief Meteorologist, ABC 33/40 - Birmingham
Andrew Spurlock, Starfire Engineering and Technologies, Inc.
Leighton Steward, PlantsNeedCO2.org
Soames Summerhays, Summerhays Films, Inc.
Charles Touhill, Consulting Environmental Engineer
David Wojick, Climatechangedebate.org
Bob Zybach, Ecologist
1 - Emeritus or Retired
It is also funny how they claim that coming off of fossil fuels will bring us back to the stone age:



Energy and global warming news for February 9, 2011: Solar energy in CA cheaper than natural gas; Proposed EPA rules on power plants could bring jobs to Michigan

We hear it every day: “Solar is too expensive.” Well, not according to the California utility Southern California Edison.

In a recent filing to the state’s Public Utilities Commission, SCE asked for approval of 20 solar PV projects worth 250 MW – all of which are expected to generate a total of 567 GWh of electricity for less than the price of natural gas.


Michigan would gain about 12,469 construction jobs a year for five years if proposed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air pollution rules go into effect, according to a study released today.

The report, prepared by James Heintz of the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts and released at the 2011 Good Jobs, Green Jobs National Conference in Washington, D.C., says investment to clean and modernize U.S. power plants nationally is expected to create 1.46 million direct and indirect new jobs through 2015.
351. JLPR2
So this is not about weather, but I got a question.
You guys know your civil rights, right?

If the republican governor of Puerto Rico signs a law that makes illegal protests and any type of marches or manifestations by civilians that interrupt any public services related to health or education, is that legal?

Doesn't that go against the right to freedom of speech and association?
Quoting Jedkins01:


remember Global Warming activists worship the Earth, mother nature is sacred because we evolved from it, the goddess gaia wills for us not to tax her oceans. She said to tax and to take away American freedoms :)


Who is stephen Goddard? Where'd he get his degree, and in what? Where does he work?
Quoting HaloReachFan:


Who are these thousands of certified life-long climatologists you bring up?

It's not just climatologists; it's nearly every national and international scientific body. Here's a listing of such bodies that have come out with position statements supporting AGWT: the InterAcademy Council, the European Academy of Sciences and Arts, the International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences, the Network of African Science Academies, the Royal Society of New Zealand, the Royal Society of the United Kingdom, the Polish Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Chemical Society, the American Institute of Physics, the American Physical Society, the Australian Institute of Physics, the European Physical Society, the European Science Foundation, the Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies, the American Geophysical Union, the European Federation of Geologists, the European Geosciences Union, the Geological Society of America, the Geological Society of Australia, the Geological Society of London, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, the National Association of Geoscience Teachers, the American Meteorological Society, the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, the Royal Meteorological Society, the World Meteorological Organization, the American Quaternary Association, the International Union for Quaternary Research, the American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians, the American Institute of Biological Sciences, the American Society for Microbiology, the Australian Coral Reef Society, the UK Institute of Biology, the Society of American Foresters, the Wildlife Society, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American College of Preventive Medicine, the American Medical Association, the American Public Health Association, the Australian Medical Association, the World Federation of Public Health Associations, the World Health Organization, the American Astronomical Society, the American Statistical Association, the the Institution of Engineers Australia, the International Association for Great Lakes Research, the Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand, along with national science academies for the following nations/areas: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Cameroon, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Ghana, Germany, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, India, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, New Zealand, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Sweden, Tanzania, Turkey, Uganda, the United Kingdom, the United States, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

(While there are a small handful of organizations that remain officially non-commital, none reject the theory of AGWT. For the record, the last one that did was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists--go figure--but even that group went non-commital a few years ago.)

(And, no, I'm not in any way saying that there are climatologists in those groups. Nor am I saying that every person in those groups, climatologist or otherwise, adheres to AGWT. But the groups as a whole have taken the majority opinion, and based their position statements on that opinion.)

Is it really anyone's opinion that the tens of thousands of scientists represented by these groups are all involved in a conspiracy to deprive people of their freedoms or to extract exorbitant taxes? And does anyone really believe that a handful of politicians bought and paid for by Big Energy carry the same science credibility as the majority of those in the above bodies do?
Who's this Stephen Goddard person? Is he real?

Quoting jwh250:
Evil Oceans Produce 16 Times As Much CO2 As Humans


Posted on February 8, 2011 by stevengoddard


Maybe we can tax the oceans?

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography -book/carboncycle.htm

Dr. Masters:

Have you had a chance to consider the implications of these two new papers below? How might they change current climate change models and interpretation of global warming trends?

Thank you.

1. Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production.
M.M. Robinson, P.J. Valdes, A.M. Haywood Et Alia.
Palaeogeog., Palaeoclim., Palaeoecol., In Press, Online 1/15/2011.
doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.01.004
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleU RL&_udi=B6V6R-51YBTRC-1&_user=10&_coverDate=01%2F1 5%2F2011&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_origin=se arch&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_ version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=31d81caa9b7 8fcb5938ee9d81625ca4c&searchtype=a
Abstract
The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland–Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios.

Research Highlights
► We alter GCM bathymetry to see if warming is aided by ocean ridge subsidence. ► We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production. ► The results offer a warming mechanism and an explanation for data-model disparity. ► Our results are compatible with paleoceoanographic and geophysical evidence. ► The Iceland–Faroe Ridge has a greater effect on climate than does Denmark Strait.



2. Weakening of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue over the past six decades.
Hiroki Tokinaga1 & Shang-Ping Xie1.
Nature Geoscience 2011
doi:10.1038/ngeo1078
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/ full/ngeo1078.html
Seasonal and interannual variations of the equatorial cold tongue are defining features of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, with significant climatic and biogeochemical effects. However, its long-term changes are poorly understood owing to biases in observations and climate models. Here we use a suite of bias-corrected observations, and find that cold-tongue variability has weakened during the past six decades. We find that sea surface temperature has increased across the basin, with a local enhancement over the eastern equatorial Atlantic. This warming pattern of the sea surface is most pronounced during boreal summer, reducing the annual cycle through a positive ocean–atmosphere feedback. Specifically, the eastward-intensified warming leads to enhanced atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Atlantic region, as well as to less vigorous trade winds. These in turn deepen the thermocline in the east, and reinforce the sea surface warming pattern. The flattened thermocline and reduced thermocline feedback weaken interannual variability of equatorial sea surface temperatures and Guinea coast precipitation associated with the Atlantic Niño. We suggest that the observed changes could be associated with cooling by anthropogenic aerosols, an effect that is stronger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. If the aerosol emissions decrease in the next decades, the tropical Atlantic may experience yet another shift as the greenhouse gas forcing increases.



He flunked out of Purdue his sophomore year like Anthony Watts.

Sowwy,,

new ENtry by Dr. Masters.

Quoting txag91met:
Nice post Jeff...looks like the AO may trend back negative towards the end of the month.


Any graphs to back that up. I don't really see AO going neg. this month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWli nk/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
Spring will be coming early.The trees outside have already sprouted buds.Not a good sign becuase...
1.I hate spring,and....
2.My alergies are terrible.