WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Arctic climate change: the past 100 years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 AM GMT on February 12, 2007

The Arctic is a region particularly sensitive to climate change, since temperatures are, on average, near the freezing point of water. Slight shifts in the average temperature can greatly change the amount of ice and snow cover in the region, due to feedback processes. For example, as sea ice melts in response to rising temperatures, more of the dark ocean is exposed, allowing it to absorb more of the sun's energy. This further increases air temperatures, ocean temperatures, and ice melt in a process know as the "ice-albedo feedback" (albedo means how much sunlight a surface reflects). The 20% loss in Arctic sea ice in summer since 1979 has given rise to concerns that this "ice-albedo feedback" has taken hold and will amplify until the Arctic Ocean is entirely ice-free later this century. Should we be concerned? Has the Arctic been this warm in the past and the sea ice survived? The answers are yes, and yes.



Figure 1. Annual average change in near surface air temperature from stations on land relative to the average for 1961-1990, for the region from 60 to 90° north. Image credit: The Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA).

The past 100 years
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), published in November 2004, was a uniquely detailed study of Arctic climate compiled by 300 scientists over three years. The study found that while temperatures in the Arctic have increased significantly since 1980 (Figure 1), there was also a period in the 1930s and 1940s when temperatures were almost as warm. If one defines the Arctic as lying poleward of 62.5° north latitude (Polyakov, 2003), the 1930s and 1940s show up being warmest period in the past 100 years. Looking at Figure 1, one cannot dismiss the possibility that temperatures in the Arctic oscillate in a 50-year period, and we are due for a cooling trend that will take temperatures below normal by 2030.

However, the period since 1980 was a time when the entire globe (except the bulk of Antarctica) warmed, and the 1930s and 1940s were not. Thus, the 1930s and 1940s warming in the Arctic is thought to be fundamentally different. Furthermore, the past 20 consecutive years have all been above normal in temperature, whereas during the 1930s and 1940s there were a few cooler than average years interspersed with the very warm years. A detailed breakdown by month and region of the 100-year history of Arctic temperatures was performed by Overland et al. (2004). They found no evidence of a 50-year cycle in Arctic temperatures, and concluded that the warming since 1980 was unique. However, they stopped short of blaming the recent warming on human-emitted greenhouse gases (anthropogenic forcing). The ACIA, though, concluded that humans were likely to blame for the recent Arctic warming, but not definitely:

It is suggested strongly that whereas the earlier warming was natural internal climate-system variability, the recent surface air temperature changes are a response to anthropogenic forcing. There is still need for further study before it can be firmly concluded that the increase in Arctic temperatures over the past century and/or past few decades is due to anthropogenic forcing."

This is the first in a series of five blogs on climate change in the Arctic that will appear every Monday and Thursday over the next two weeks. Next blog: The skeptics attack the ACIA report--and how the position of the pole star is indicative of Arctic climate change.

Also, be sure to visit our new Climate Change blog, written by Dr. Ricky Rood of the University of Michigan.

Jeff Masters

References

Overland, J.E, M.C. Spillane, D.B. Percival, M. Wang, H.O. Mofjeld (2004), "Seasonal and Regional Variation of Pan-Arctic Surface Air Temperature over the Instrumental Record", Journal of Climate, 17:17, pp3263-3282, September 2004.

Polyakov, V., et al. (2003), "Variability and Trends of Air Temperature and Pressure in the Maritime Arctic, 1875-2000", Journal of Climate, 16, 2067-2077.

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr M...Great information...
Thank You Dr.Masters. AS Always.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Good discussion.
Thank you, Dr. M. This is goog . Looking forward to more.
.....good, not goog.
Cycle or not, the upward trend in the temperature in the past 20 years looks like it is just going up up up! It will be interesting to see how the next decade turns out. My gut tells me that although we are not at a tipping point quite yet in the arctic sea ice feedback, we will be soon.
Jeff,
Would that "ice-albedo feedback" effect contribute to our Antarctic accelerated ice-melts also?
Barry
LOL dr m you said that your next blog would be monday i did not no today was monday lol but thanks for the update
Thanks Dr. Masters
Dr Masters, thanks for the info as always. I appreciate the cautious tone, and I appreciate your avoiding any sweeping statements, while still building a case that even the skeptics can't dismiss.
This reminds me of the cigarette controversy a few decades ago. The tobacco industry always denied a link between smoking and cancer and heart disease etc, and insisted there was never a causal link, that it was always coincidence, in spite of all the studies that showed otherwise. Meanwhile millions were sickened and died over the years while the debate went on. This looks like the same deal, except by the time everyone reaches a consensus this time, Florida will be gone! ;-)
well another week of dry air on tap for us in the caribbean. Getting very dry here...i miss the rain.
We had a drizzle here early this morning, and there is a little cloud about. very welcomed.......
Yet more info on anthropogenic forcing. I agree it is a contribution to climate change but what is important is can we DO anything about it. What I am reading is that even if we stop or level gg production the climate will continue to change. The next critical question is how do we COPE with the changes and figure out what they are. Should we start farms in Greenland so we don't starve or what? Roll white permeable plastic membrane over the arctic or just start farming salmon there? We need bright people like the Dr. here to work on those questions too.
It seems important to stop making climate change worse with greenhouse gas production but it is even more important not to make it worse by trying to "FIX" it without proper forethought.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 820 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA * UNTIL 850 AM EST * AT 816 AM EST...OUR RADAR DETECTED A WATERSPOUT JUST SOUTH OF LONG KEY...DRIFTING NORTH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE MILE MARKER 66 AND 67...THE EDGEWATER LODGE...LONG KEY STATE PARK AND THE LONG KEY VIADUCT. WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE ARE DANGEROUS AND CAN BE DEADLY. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! LAT...LON 2467 8079 2476 8066 2497 8083 2486 8093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 820 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA * UNTIL 850 AM EST * AT 816 AM EST...OUR RADAR DETECTED A WATERSPOUT JUST SOUTH OF LONG KEY...DRIFTING NORTH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE MILE MARKER 66 AND 67...THE EDGEWATER LODGE...LONG KEY STATE PARK AND THE LONG KEY VIADUCT. WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE ARE DANGEROUS AND CAN BE DEADLY. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! LAT...LON 2467 8079 2476 8066 2497 8083 2486 8093
Another one!



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 849 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA * UNTIL 905 AM EST * AT 847 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A ROTATING THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRAIG KEY...MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOWER MATECUMBE KEY WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE ARE DANGEROUS AND CAN BE DEADLY. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD. PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3. LAT...LON 2480 8090 2475 8076 2492 8068 2498 8081
19. V26R
Guess the Low Pressure system thats supposed to give the Northeast a Snow is starting to wind up
Yeah v26r i was thinking the same thing. I wounder if the weather in the states will have any impact on us in the caribbean.
21. V26R
Got bud over in Antigua right now and when I last talked with him, he said that he was getting dry condx just like you guys in PR
Hope you get some rain down there soon!
MRP, the weather in the states is going to have an effect on Puerto Rico. i.e. the tourists are going to come, without their passports. LOL.
V26R, we dont expect any rain in the Caribbean until June. Thats when the itcz gets to me, anyway. Further north, at Puerto Rico, Antigua etc. they have to wait on the first trop. wave off Africa to give them any real relief.
Don't need passports to go to Puerto Rico
Hey everybody, Very active morning here across SOUTH FLORIDA. KEY WEST RADAR REALLY SHOWING HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION MOVING NORTH!I HAVE A FEELING WE MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER HERE IN MIAMI LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON!
Re: no pasports for PR. I know, and the rules have changed very recently, and you have to have one to visit any other Carib. islands. Eliminates a lot of tourists !!!!!!!!!
...or rather, concentrates the tourist flow to PR and the USVI. Its all for " SECURITY " you see..........
.in any event, the point is that bad weather in the Eastern US is good for the economy of Puerto Rico.........
882MB - You have a front with the Sub tropical jet hitting just right - much like during the tornadoes early this month - walking outside just then, it hit me how unusually warm and tropical the air felt - just as it did right before the tornadoes struck.

The only thing working for us is that the front itself appears to be down near Cuba -- hopefully that will limit the severe stuff to extreme south Florida.

If we dont get severe weather from it the front over Texas is starting to look bad too. Louisiana is going to have bad night.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

TRENDS IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER
LEON...HOUSTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST E OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE WHICH EXISTS FROM JUST E OF CLL SWD TO W OF BUOY
42019.




NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... ...SQUALL LINE IMPACTS THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH FROM THE SQUALL LINE AND LARGE HAIL OF PENNY TO GOLF BALL SIZED
DIAMETERS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP...
Posted By: Dodabear at 11:14 AM AST on February 12, 2007.

Don't need passports to go to Puerto Rico

acctually now as of december 2006 all us citizens traveling to puerto rico will need passports to travel to and from the island drivers license will not get u in!
this rule also applies to all puerto ricans who want to leave the island.
Wow - the system in the midsection is really cooking - in just the last hour its gone from almost nothing to quite respectable - a scary squall like has come up in Texas in no time flat.

Holy cow - I walk away from my computer for 15 min and it looks like a different day on the weather map! Is anyone else out there seeing this? The warning map just went from absurd to surreal and covers the whole country.

The NWS seems alarmed:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS


an active southwestern Indian Ocean.
Good afternoon,

Ive recieved a couple of phone calls from some friends down in the keys and they have said its been pouring really hard for hours down there with gusty winds also in the mix.Hopefully things will begin to slow down as the afternoon approaches.

View of keywest radar....


cyclonebuster i just spoke about that on randrewls blog...Indeed maybe hints of a weak surface low trying to develope down there.Should move north a bring heavy towards dade and broward counties.

FINAL STORM TOTALS has of today

PARISH NY 121"


REDFIELD 141"


this most be the most snow they had evere seen in one storm and you no what more is on the way where are they all going to put it
nah.Shear's too strong.That'd be cool though.
that won't develop.
That TX storm caught my eye on the RGB Got some hail kickin.
Weak surface low isn't out of the question, for the gulf (though it looked more likely lastnight). Check the clouds down there on the RGB They're mostly in the lower levels. So shear wouldn't play as big apart unless it tried to strengthin, make higher clouds.
& Taz it so looks more like it may roll up the coast instead of stay off shoar, NY may be in for alot more.
Weatherboychris no tropical developemnt is expected but if a weak low were to try to form it will only add to the rain amounts across south florida in the coming hours as this entire areas drifts north.

Part of the NWS discussion form earlier this morning...

THIS IS WHERE YOU GO ON A LIMB DUE TO THAT DATA HOLE THAT IS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THERE COULD BE...ARGUABLY A WEAK SFC LOW TRYING TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT IT IS HARD TO
FIND EVEN VIA HAND ANALYSIS. THIS IS PERHAPS WHAT GFS IS LATCHING ON
TO WHICH IT DEVELOPS RATHER AGGRESSIVELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES IN
RESPONSE TO UPR LVL S/W FORCING. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN THERE IS NO
DOUBT SFC TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS THE LOW AND UPR
LVL S/W APPROACHES WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA TONIGHT INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
wow sky could NY city see 2 to 3 ft for this storm
Yeah,you can see the overshooting tops of the storms.Nice.You see the latest ENSO numbers?Link
I don't know Taz never got into figuring snow though alot will have to do with it's track, been trending toward land lately.

Here's the quickscat of the gulf.

Interesting how some of the model now have switched to the front meeting the surface trough right before, or as it crosses Fl instead of after. That won't help for avoiding severe weather.
Some 50kt winds offshore.Bad boating.Wonder if there's rain contamination and that's why they're so high?
weatherboykris what are the ENSO numbers saying today
24n 87 w? somewhere in those parts? Or more towards 90??

oh sorry sky - quickscat has it way over - Duh Yea, I see more near Cuba - theres a lot of stuff on the trough. near 23n 86 w - you can see it clearly the vis loop rock.
ok sky i see now
Good Afternoon Everyone. How are you all today?
See the latest Mesoscale Discussion concerning a mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow for S. Nebraska and Northern and Central Kansas.

this discussion also includes East Central Colorado.
No significant developemnt of any kind is expected but a weak surface low is somewhat possible.Movement off all this should be northward.Looks quite rainy the next 12-18 hours for southeast florida.

could it be comeing 90L???? been waiting a long time for 90L to pop up you think this have a ch or may be a small ch
Taz, All they have to do is pile it up in a field somewhere and make a ski area out of it.

Or they could ship it here to NH. We're still waiting for snow.
Taz,the numbers say that El Nino is over and we are neutral.A La Nina is on the way.
Thats alot of cloud cover with some battering rains,i hear
sorry Taz,but it won't be 90L.
0 chance Taz just alot of rainfall for me.
weatherboykris rats i want my 90L oh well i wait for the next one
Taz,the numbers say that El Nino is over and we are neutral.A La Nina is on the way.

Well it's been on the cards since Early January
Jorick23 or they can send it to me we could ues some of it
How much rainfall have you got so far H23
He asked a question TS2.I answered him.
Yea that too h23 ! Boy that one came up. thats from the area that was N of Cuba thats been sitting over warm water. We should note that there is more than one trough in the Gulf near that area.
Predicted numbers are not something to focus on cause even a quite season can turn out ot be a very bad one.It only takes one to ruin lives. Steering patterns will determine everything come late july into early august.Till then its a wait and see game.Adrian
kris~ the black are rain contaminated, though that is the high resolution. It was near 5 hrs old too.

Hail is picking up in TX, some widely scattered along that line to TN. Interesting weather day.
Thunderstorm2 theres areas in the keys that have recieved near 9 inches of rainfall.
I'm presuming cold.
ENSO took another slide, currently conditions are neutral, looked like a .2 for the 3&4 region. It's gone down so quick it's probibly gonna take March or april to get a 3 month average below .5 to make it offically over. They were calling for La Nina by late summer in the weekly report.
(Whistles Loudly and longly) WOW H23 that alot of water
They were calling for La Nina by late summer in the weekly report.



They're finally waking up.
And i don't think thats aload of BS
The UKMET on the 12Z run just goes off on the noreaster, feeding bad on the gulf stream.
And i don't think thats aload of BS



What is?
They were calling for La Nina by late summer in the weekly report. Thats what i don't think is BS for once
Here is a radar image showing accumulated rainfall.

Is the light blue that is circled indicating that there has been 15 inches of rainfall in that area? if it is HOLY!!
yes TS2.it is 15+ inches.
Incredible amounts indeed.
Rainfall rates like that 15"+,do they mean warm core?


What does rain rate have to do with core temperatures?
Were i placed the circles is were the heaviest rainfall has occured close to land.
The only thing warm there is a warm front. Key
If that storm was happining in HS then it may have been something to watch but since we are not in HS then it's just a bunch of clouds that are crying to much
I was wondering if more rainfall occurs in warm core systems than it does in cold core systems?


I think that probably depends on the situation, CB.
Probably neither cyclone. Its a developing weak surface low pressure along a front in a warm, wet area. It will get eaten by something bigger.

Remember Fla folks there probably is still an area of interest headed for south central Fla AFTER the straights low.
(sorry thats a little old)
Warm or cold core systems need a core~ which this doen't have at least not yet. Warm core has the rain closer to the middle in a more round shape, cold core doesn't mean less, just not so gathered in the middle ~ the ukmet I had posted has it going, once it's part of the noreaster, asymentric warm core which is like subtropical...picking up some warmth from the gulf stream. Jeff has had blogs on these before, they're not tropical, just winter storms feeding off & strengthening temperarly from the warm gulf stream. Warmth means potental strength, not percipitaion.
Ok skye
100% chance 1.5" hail in west TX. LA your next. This front so far has beentrending toward big hail.
There's definately a spin there but nothing of great importance.

The rain near Key Largo reminds me of the time a storm hit Ft. Lauderdale a little over a year ago. I was in a travel trailer in a trailer park. A 3 hour downpour started. First hour, 2"/hr. Second hour, 3"/hr. Third hour, 5" per hour. 10 inches total, with a tornado touching down a half mile away. The water made it up to the top of my hubcaps and another 2 inches would have brought it into my trailer. Next morning all the water was gone, but it sure left a mess!
Well................
On radar you can see things will begin to clear up rain wise in the next couple of hours.Off and showers are still possible later on tonight across southeast florida.
On radar you can see things will begin to clear up rain wise in the next couple of hours.Off and showers are still possible later on tonight across southeast Florida.
hurricane23

Are you talking about all of Florida? - I hope not!

THE WARM FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT.



Watch this Buoy as the low approaches. The winds should turn soon - or I guess because of the prevailing surface flow they won't?.

Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
- LOOK at The Graph


and Here:

Station PLSF1 - Pulaski Shoal Light, FL


25n 85w moving towards just south of Tampa Bay.

On the vis - under the shear there almost appears to be a swirl in the surface clouds.
Updated discussion for Miami....Rainy weather for the next couple of hours before things get better.


...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY EXTREME SE COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT...
...POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER EVENT LATE THIS WEEK...
All you people talkin' about a little rain, sheesh! I've got 18 inches of snow coming my way tomorrow night!

Now where's the number of that Florida travel agency?....
El Nino is almost finished
El Nino
we no that
Look at what the GFS has in store for Florida on the 24th... 12z, and 18z
Its all about the steering patterns that might be in place.La nina indeed will make conditions overall more favorable for tropical developement but whether or not the united states see's some activity this season will depend on alot of factors that will slowly reveal themselves over the next couple of months.Adrian
Is there a Good Chance of Severe Weather near Orlando tomorrow? Where is the dry weather?
From NWS:

Orlando, FL
TUESDAY
Scattered Afternoon T-Storms
Hi: 75F
Pop: 50%

Or this:

Tuesday...Considerable cloudiness. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms May become strong. Highs in the mid 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thanks Steve I was reading the discussion but there is alot of uncertainity does El Nino have any effect on this? I been hearing that could could makes these storms worse?
So Orlando: Cloudiness - which means sunny to really cloudy - - AND with the chance of serious storms?

Well that about covers everything!

There seems to be some problems with the forecast models, the trough(s) over and around Florida and this huge low thing looking elongated and perhaps doing some stalling over the Midwest.
I wouldnt be able to sleep if I lived in La. - 3 warnings at once already! I hope everyone stays safe!

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2007


LAFAYETTE 911 REPORTS POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR VEROT SCHOOL ROAD IN THE YOUNGSVILLE AREA. DAMAGE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME AND NO INJURIES REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. (LCH)


The NEW GFS RUN HAS THAT patch of disturbed weather in the gulf crossing Florida at the big bend tomorrow evening and combining with the larger low. Whatever happens its going to be messy all the way up the east coast it appears..
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAS
INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR FIRES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

hmm could a drought be on the way
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1363818.ece
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/global-warming020507.htm
Tornado damage in New Orleans this morning.Was BAd storm...lotsa power outages .Link
One Fatality reported Tornado touches down in Westwego, Carrollton areas

Elderly woman killed in Pontchartrain Park area

07:42 AM CST on Tuesday, February 13, 2007

WWL-TV and Associated Press reports

An 85-year-old woman was killed and at least seven people were injured as a tornado touched down twice this morning first in Westwego and then jumped over the Mississippi River and hit in the Carrollton and Gentilly areas of New Orleans. The tornado was part of a heavy line of storms that blew through around 3 a.m.

Bill Haber / Associated Press

A tree and power line sit on top of a car in the Carrollton area of New Orleans after a tornado struck early Tuesday.

The woman who was killed lived in the Pontchartrain Park area, according to New Orleans Fire Department officials. The Gentilly area was especially hard hit.

Entergy spokesman Morgan Stewart says that approximately 17,000 customers are without power in the Carrollton area. In Westwego about 650 customers are out, mainly in the heavily-damaged area. Another 8,000 outages are reported in New Orleans East and Gentilly and sporadic outages of about 2,500 in Metairie and Kenner.

Colonel Jerry Sneed of the New Orleans Department of Emergency Preparedness said he has reports of 'fewer than 20 injuries' in Orleans, many of them who were treated and released.

Also Online

VIDEO: Carrollton residents afraid as storms slammed area

VIDEO: Westwego hotel destroyed

VIDEO: Homes destroyed, trees, power lines ripped down

On Carrollton Avenue Uptown, there was plenty of visible damage with businesses having signs down and some windows out. A huge hole was seen in the brick facade of Ronald McNair School on Carrollton.

Several homes near S. Claiborne and Carrollton had severe damage. At least one family had the roof of their FEMA trailer ripped off with a family inside. All were able to escape alive.

On the West Bank, nine people were reported injured, six of them who were staying at the Bon Soir motel when the roof was ripped off by the tornado. WWL-TV reporter Jonathan Betz said the motel looks as if a 'bomb went off' and that it is completely gutted.

A six-block area near the hotel was hit by the tornado and at least 15 homes were damaged.

The hotel's roof was torn off and is lying in the middle of the Westbank Expressway, causing traffic to be shut down in both directions on the West Bank Expressway.

Authorities say trailers were overturned in the area, and at least six homes collapsed. So far, there's no word on the condition of the residents.

Jefferson Parish authorities are sending teams through the area to check on residents.

In New Orleans, damage is widespread in the Carrollton area and many areas of New Orleans are without power this morning
Quick video from TV of Damage here..
Ponchatrain Park near Lakeview..heavily flooded during Katrina..heavily damaged by this mornings Tornado...
The weather here in Mobile is getting pretty bad to. It's as black as a ace of spades.
My alert Weather NOAA radio awoke me at 2am..with plenty of warning...thankfully.
How about the Anartic, Dr. Jim?
teresa here again.One word from Patrap now in ponchatrain park.."incredible"
Local info on damage Link
It looks like the arctic was colder when we were testing atomic/hydrogen bombs during the cold war. It seems the world has gotten hotter after successful attempts to reduce nuclear weapon proliferation the past two decades. If the graph above in the blog entry is correct, maybe supporters of global warming should initialize a nuclear winter? I can see Al Gore now, pushing for atmosphereic warhead detonation over Greenland...
131. 04gtp
Dear Dr. Masters:

Regarding your blog on the HRD research money being cut from NOAA's budget...here is the response from Florida Senator Mel Martinez, to an email of concern I sent him the other day:

Thank you for contacting me regarding the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006 (S. 4005). I appreciate hearing from you, and would like to take this opportunity to respond.

In the wake of the devastation wrought on the Gulf Coast in 2005 by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, on September 29, 2006, I introduced bipartisan legislation to implement a national hurricane research initiative designed to better research, predict and prepare for hurricanes. This comprehensive proposal was crafted from the recommendations presented by the National Science Foundations new draft report entitled, Hurricane Warning: The Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative. A coordinated research initiative is necessary given the enormous cost associated with hurricanes, in both dollars and human lives, combined with the fact that 90 percent of the nations population lives within 200 miles of the coast.

S. 4005 will take the general recommendations from the National Science Foundations report and assemble the expertise of our nations science and engineering capabilities through a multi-agency effort that is focused on improving our understanding of hurricane prediction, intensity, and mitigation on coastal populations, infrastructure, and the natural environment. The bill sets out specific goals for research, including predicting hurricane intensification, storm surge, rainfall, and inland flooding, improved observations, assessment of vulnerable infrastructure, interaction of hurricanes with engineered structures, improved computational ability, improved disaster response and recovery, and evacuation planning. This legislation calls for gathered research to be formulated into a national and standardized database so that it may be put to use in real world situations through the creation of the National Hurricane Research Test Bed.

Florida and other Gulf Coast states have a lot at stake every hurricane season and there are still far too many unknowns. These unknowns carry great costs. Better, more intense, and more coordinated research can better help us prepare for the future.

Again, thank you for contacting me. If you have any additional questions or comments, please do not hesitate to contact me. In addition, for more information about issues and activities important to Florida, please sign up for my weekly newsletter at http://martinez.senate.gov.

Sincerely,

Mel Martinez
United States Senator


Re: Sen. Martinez letter, is the funding available ? Has it been cut ? What is the situation ? Does research continue to improve or not ?????????
Good Afternoon everyone. How are ya'll feeling?
I'm feeling very hot and dry here storm2, what about yerself ?
i'm alright. it's a bit hot here,only 75
..things look pretty nasty near new orleans again.
...and more to come ??????
New Orleans seem to have bad luck at the moment
.its 90 F here, but dry and windy. Fire weather. Got my fire trace cut last week, just in time I think. No chance of rain until June. Its going to be interesting......
ok it's warm but i didn't know how warm it was for you
I've got a 75% chance of T-Storms today
Heads-up: Storms approaching W Central Florida appear to have some strength & rotation. Line trailing S from this mornings LA storms overtaking, sun is out & getting warmer ahead - they could intensify.
I'm watching it carefully here in Orlando
This is what I have here; blizzard warnings have been issued to the NE:

Cahokia / St. Louis, St. Louis Downtown Airport
Last Update on Feb 13, 10:53 am CST
Freezing Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy
Temperature: 28F (-2C)
Humidity: 88 %
Wind Speed: N 21 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.85" (1011.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 25F (-4C)
Wind Chill: 15F (-9C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.
I really think hey should have shut down a lot of Florida knowing this was coming. There is the potential for some real disasters - especially on our roads. The system entering Tampa is going to be intense and ride up the interior of the state as the front approaches. -- the stuff down near Miami is probably going to ride up a good portion of the east coast of Florida too.

1121 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING... ...ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.


Its all going to come together over Florida. - there was a lot of dry air over northern fla - that could moderate things a little.
Thats bad news for me
Yea T2 :

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
Here it comes. Just got the alert on the news just now
I now have heavy snow with near-blizzard conditions:

Cahokia / St. Louis, St. Louis Downtown Airport
Last Update on Feb 13, 11:53 am CST
Snow Freezing Fog and Windy
Temperature: 24F (-4C)
Humidity: 88 %
Wind Speed: N 28 G 37 MPH
Barometer: 29.87" (1011.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 21F (-6C)
Wind Chill: 7F (-14C)
Visibility: 0.25 mi
TAKE A LOOK AT THE STORMls
I'm getting rain mist just now
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 21
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2007

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

central Florida
coastal waters

Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
700 PM EST.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles either side of a line from 20 miles north of Ocala
Florida to 50 miles east of fort Meyers Florida. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(wous64 kwns wou1).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 20...

Discussion... tstm cluster off the W CST of FL... and additional
storms likely to from in heated environment over the interior... may
pose a threat for high wind and hail as region continues to
destablize downstream from 50 kt wly mid level jet streak. While
low level shear is weak over most of ww area... low level directional
shear will be enhanced invof E CST sea breeze boundary and outflows
from earlier storms. Part of watch number 21 along the immediate E
CST may require upgrade to tornado if it appears that discrete
storms will indeed interact with those boundaries.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 26035.


... Corfidi

;295,0811 270,0800 261,0820 291,0831


Here is what it looks like right now:

im in Sarasota FL right now there is very heavy rain cloud to ground lightning and pea size hail.
I'm in Orlando FLA at the moment and i have got Dark clouds moving in from the distance.

Stay Safe Chessrascal
I shouldnt say this now probably but - I miss the snow so much!. It looks so fun. When I was up in it though, by this time of year id be making plans to leave and never come back, of course.
I have received official notice of the incoming storm - the fish hawk behind my house is going nuts. I guess I shouldn't have washed my truck.
O DEAR
JFL - I-75N (or I-95) LOL
I'VE GOT THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN IS THROWING IT DOWN. LOTS OF LIGHTNING
HISEX - I really cant leave now because of family commitments. But as soon as I can Im headed back up to the northwest.

Have you guys looked at the GFS today? Its still kinda off it seems?

I wouldn't have expected that stuff from Tampa to cross the state to Orlando so directly and up in NW fla the front got a little ahead of itself. I wonder if the system is stalling again.


shore buoy in big bend

Station KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL

Graph
Weather is quite boring here in eastern NC...

Wish I had some of that snow... but will settle for a few bolts of lightning.

Floodie
Radar loop from a few hours ago showing line pushing into the florida coast...



Current radar showing thunderstorm activity will be pushing of the coast in the the next hour or so.



Posted By: floodzonenc at 2:30 PM EST on February 13, 2007.

Weather is quite boring here in eastern NC...

Wish I had some of that snow... but will settle for a few bolts of lightning.

Weather may not be so boring for you guys during the 07 hurricane season.Be thankful its quite cause it may not last.


I look to be having another round of deadly lightning on the way.
Severe T-Storm Warning up for my area. It's still hitting me hard
PATRAP, long time no speak. Did you guys check out the Carrolton area? I have a friend on Willow St. that received heavy damage this morning, but not as bad as her next door neighbor. She said her neighbors house is now leaning on her house. She had 5 windows blown out, and tree and roof damage. The neighbor's house was basically bisected. Glad you fared well in the storm.
Jake435 where do you live?
Hey jake..just been busy,Was hairy morning...Daughter was in Fountainbleu on Versailles .They okay..hows you?Dominican did not have classes.No power
Heres the WWltv.com link...Link
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAS
INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR FIRES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
Nothing here yet in north central - partly cloudy - we need rain!

Hey check out the cloud formation down in Campeche forming up now on the vis loop!!!!

mostly surface fog in a low - probably - but interesting, no???

Nearest personal weather station -Veracruz Airport, Mexico


The need to fix that Buoy ASAP down there - I wonder if our first tropical depression wont form up down there - with the warm spots and all.
I'm getting rain and lots of it JF. The T-Storms have moved on.
Heres a leaning house on Carrollton Jake..is this it?..4
That is interesting,JF.
Well.........at last it's over here
i've got scattered clouds
To report Tornado structural damage in Orleans Parish..Dial 311 More contact info for those affected here. Link
hey guys, about a 10th of an inch of ice right now, but more coming look
look at the swirl...
Yea CB that stuff is crazy. Theres warning boxes everywhere - Its going to be curious - as these as these overlapping systems come together. (actually probably 3 or 4 if you count the stuff in Florida.) Theres going to be lot of mixed matched weather. Up north its going to be totally miserable - rain and snow and everything in between. We will be dealing with hail and tornadoes.

IT COULD BE A VERY LONG NIGHT !!!!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 PM CST

AT 408 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANSFIELD...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MANSFIELD BY 420 PM CST
hey guys, about a 10th of an inch of ice right now, but more coming look
look at the swirl...
It's getting it's rotation on
It looks ugly down here
Yes i know
Why?
It's only Tornado's. As long as they don't go into populated areas then there is no need to!
Seriously those the Birmingham area should be taking cover NOW if they go that way- those are some strong echoes.

Well, I mean since most people are driving now.

FOX6 TowerCam is located on the WBRC-TV tower atop Red Mountain in Birmingham, Alabama.
Ok............... TAKE COVER! TAKE COVER! AND DO IT NOW!!!!!!!
Will do......Thats if i had a dog and if i was in that area
202. ryang
TS2 is it getting worse????
Its getting worse up north but it's all over here
Lets say its a bad time for walking, shopping, and riding around in Birmingham.

Tuscaloosa is in line next even before Birmingham.

Yeowwww - Ok - take cover!!
At maybe some pads CB
207. ryang
Ok.
Damage-a plenty
It won't be a big all nation sport unless baseball size hail stones falling everywhere at once
Cell A4 has severe rotation...people north of brent need to get to shelter immediatly...
I've got to go. Stay safe everyone here and in Birmingham.
the alabaster area needs to be getting prepared as well...
215. ryang
Hello Watch.
hey ryang, how u doing....looks to be a defiannt twister on the ground just nw of brent, al...
217. ryang
I am good,yes looks bad as well.
cell moving slightly south of east...people in brent need to be in shelter NOW!!!!!!!!!
219. ryang
Hey watch come to my blog!
Hi everyone. I finally decided to stop lurking.

Currently a radar indicated tornado visible on Intellicast's stormwatch thingy. 2 rotating storms near the GA\SC border.
Hi all! just got home from PA last night. talk about good timing or is it? Now i'm watching weather alerts all over Florida. My daughter lives just outside of State Collage and she says it's bad and getting worse by the hour. Their expecting 12-18 inches or more. Thank God they just got a load of wood because their expecting power outage's due to freezing rain and ice also.
Up here in Halifax, Nova Scotia..Looks like the low is getting ready to form off the SE coast and head up this way..Saw a link last night that some of the models think this low will have a warm core..INTERESTING to say the least...I know there is a lot of press on this system right now but I got a bad feeling that this storm is really going to deepen fast and be stonger then most are predicting..Might be one for the record books..A ton of tropical air, storms in the south, Cold artic air in the north and water temps in the NE Atlantic are above normal..Dare I say THE PERFECT STORM????? Anyone agree or disagree..I say this turns into a Massive BOMB and pressure gets down to the 960MB range!!!
The weather in So Cal was quite borning today compaired to most of the nation, however there was still something to talk about.

All day thunderstorms have been poping up about 10 miles to the east of my area. There was a few good thunderstorms today.
gfs starts it warm core.
cmc slightly warm..I agree how this & the next ones takes it as the low that has been treking across instead of a new storm that forms in the Atlantic.
Nogaps
& the winner for most crazy warm storm, 2 nights in a row is, the, Ukmet...



Did you atleast see a drop of rain lightning?
hi all.... about 2-3 inches of snow here... with about a tenth to a quater inch of ice underneath.... the low really deepened as it moved over southern Indiana...
is the snow in the northwest section begining to drop southeast?
Most Snow in 24 hours in Springfield Rank Amount Date
1 15.0 inches Feb. 28, 1900
2 13.3 inches Jan. 1-2, 1999
3 12.6 inches Jan. 30-31, 1914
4 11.1 inches Feb. 12-13, 2007
5 10.9 inches Dec. 19, 1973
6 10.7 inches Feb 12, 1894
7 10.5 inches Dec 24, 1915
8 10.3 inches Feb 23-24, 1965
9 9.4 inches Mar. 19-20, 1906
10 9.0 inches Feb. 15, 1903
NWS Central Illinois

Notice that 5 of these occur in February...

PATRAP-Yes, that is the house to which I referred earlier. Did you take that picture? My wife found a video of it on wwltv.com while she was at work, but I didn't see it, and couldn't find it later. I was just checking in to see if you responded, and you've got the picture. You 'da man, brother! And by the way, was that pic from this morning b-4 daylight, or this evening, after sunset? My wife talked to her this evening, and she said the house appears to be leaning more and more, and she fears it will begin to further damage her house. As you can see in the pic, the leaning house is far bigger than our friends. She had the power meter ripped off the side of her house, so she's not staying there tonight anyway. She's getting windows replaced tomorrow, and the church next door helped her with the trees this morning. Will be her 3rd new fence in three years!
Well I though it had all died out but I see some growth in the storms moving into south Carolina.

I wouldn't trust anything this time of night.

This is part of that storm system that caused the tornadoes in Alabama. It already has the rotation in the air mass probably, so things could happen quickly but its probably too cold there for anything really severe I guess.
Is this still the Weather Underground?

Why am I seeing advertisements for other venues here.....like this one?

I have a pending sponsorship with Corona beer for my personal blog....I bet Administration won't allow that. Why is this allowed?
More allowed "Free" advertising on the WU site!



Posted by: caddieshack, 4:10 AM EST on February 14, 2007

Do you want to play cheap golf, what do you need to do to do this, simply call the following number :- 0845999081 and ask for Reg Smith.
HOUSE HEARING ON 'WARMING OF THE PLANET' CANCELED AFTER ICE STORM
I got the pic from a AP photog friend.She sends me photos of events for here!..Glad your friends made out well...the pic was taken before SUnrise or around that time I believe.I was in Ponchatrain Park briefly..but my batteries failed on my cam...go figure.Heres the Headlines from this morning.Daughter was where the star is above the W in twister.Shes 16 today!..Patrap7
Thanks, Patrap, and tell your daughter happy birthday, and your sweetheart happy Valentine's day!
guess no one is talking about the extreme cold coming tosouth florida with temperatures only in the 50s as daytime highs and low temperature near freezing
I would love to trade my near 90 degree day on Friday for a bit of rain here in So Cal. The weather is so borning right know compaired to other parts of the contery.
240. V26R
Lightning
I'll trade you guys out West any day for the Ice Storm and Cold Weather We're having right now in NYCity ANY DAY!!!
Be Careful for what you wish for!!!
Thanks jake..have a good day too.Happy Valentines to you and yours too.
..from Todays Times Picayune in New Orleans

Wednesday, February 14, 2007
By Mark Schleifstein

National Weather Service forecasters issued an eerily accurate forecast 24 hours before a thunderstorm produced at least one tornado that ripped across the West Bank of Jefferson Parish and New Orleans early Tuesday.

On Monday at 3:24 a.m., forecasters in the Slidell office of the National Weather Service warned of tornadic supercell thunderstorms, accompanied by winds as high as 79 mph, golf ball-sized hail and the potential of a tornado ranked as a 3 on the new Enhanced Fujita Scale.

It estimates wind speed on a scale of 1 to 5, based on damage measured on the ground after the event. A 3 is equivalent to winds of 136 to 165 mph.






Robert Ricks, the lead forecaster who oversaw the meteorologists on duty during the early mornings both Monday and Tuesday, said that in approving the forecast, he relied on only one of several weather forecast models that predicted the tornadic storms would form. The other models, he said, indicated the storms would form later in the day on Tuesday.

Weather officials quickly doubled their forecasters on duty early Tuesday. And Monday at 3 p.m., they briefed emergency operations personnel in parishes throughout southeastern Louisiana about the upcoming storms.

Adding to the concern, Ricks said, was the memory of the Feb. 2 tornado that cut a wide swath through central Florida, killing 20 people. That twister had dropped from the sky in the middle of the night, catching many residents unaware, including a number who lived in trailers.

Ricks said his staff had carefully watched the forecasting measures taken by their cohorts in Florida, especially the problems caused by the early-morning arrival. That resulted in additional language added to forecasts during the day Monday, warning people living in FEMA trailers to watch the skies and find shelter in the event of a thunderstorm.

By the time Ricks returned to duty in Slidell at midnight Monday, the forecast was turning into reality.

Forecasters were watching so-called "rogue cell" thunderstorms form in advance of a squall line of connected thunderstorm activity that had formed well in advance of a strong cold front.

"We put up a (weather) balloon at midnight, and it came back with readings showing that the air mass had really destabilized quickly, compared to the 6 p.m. balloon," Ricks said. "The moisture content was much deeper, and the spin of winds at different levels was like going up a spiral staircase, increasing in speed as you go up in the atmosphere." "I remember making a comment to the radar operator that that's bad news for the city of New Orleans," Ricks said.

The office issued the first warning at 2:28 a.m.: A potential tornado was heading toward Boutte, Hahnville, Metairie and Kenner. That was 34 minutes in advance of the first damage in Westwego, Ricks said. The storm moved east, and warnings followed for Marrero, Harvey, Avondale, New Orleans and Chalmette

A 3:12 a.m. update added the Lower 9th Ward, Arabi and an area south of Lakefront Airport. Forecasters said that was a second tornado dropping from the same thunderstorm, which cut through Pontchartrain Park.

On Tuesday, a National Weather Service team surveyed the damage and concluded the supercell created two separate tornadoes. The first carved a path two miles long and 50 yards wide across the West Bank, beginning in Westwego, as an F2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with winds estimated between 111 and 135 mph. It then jumped the Mississippi River and weakened to F1 strength, between 86 and 110 mph, cutting through Uptown and Carrollton.

Forecasters said a second tornado, also an F2, descended near the intersection of Franklin Avenue and Mendez Street, then cut across Pontchartrain Park to the Industrial Canal.

"It's very rare to see two F2 tornadoes touch down in New Orleans on the same day, only five or six miles away from each other," National Weather Service forecaster Phil Grigsby said.

Before Tuesday, only 14 tornadoes had touched down in New Orleans since 1950, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

State Climatologist Barry Keim said that April is the peak month for tornadoes in Louisiana, with a secondary peak in November. Between 1880 and 1989, there were 36 tornadoes ranked F1 or stronger in February in Louisiana, compared with 74 in April. Twisters are least common in summer, Keim said.

Daniel McCarthy, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service's National Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said the Tuesday tornadoes should reinforce the weather service's efforts to get people to buy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather radios. The radios can be programmed to turn on automatically when a tornado or other dangerous weather event occurs.

"I think it's imperative that you keep an eye on the weather when the Storm Prediction Center issues a warning," he said. "When a tornado watch is issued, you need to keep abreast of the situation, even at 3 in the morning."
244. V26R
If any you guys out on the West Coast With Boring Weather want to see an Ice Storm, check this out

Link
245. V26R
Hey Trap, how close were the Twisters to you?
Hey V26R!Check your mail.
247. V26R
Hey Dude,will do
248. V26R
How'd you make out with that Nasty Weather Yesterday Adrian?
7 miles se..about 12 due east..
But daughter was 2 blocks from Uptown Carrolton Tornado..very lucky .
251. V26R
Those storms are Very Nasty
Was never near one, but seen what they can do
to communities, Glad you and your Family are Okay
Heres a video I took exiting the trailer as we saw the TVS..was before the 2:28 warning.Wasnt going to play with that one..
It really wasn't that bad across miami cloudy skies with some light rain.The florida keys saw incredible rain amounts with areas seeing up to 9-10 inches of rainfall.Had some friends calling on my cell telling me there cars were flooded down there.Amazing amounts.


Thanks V36R..we were very fortunate..Many were not.But the warnings got out.
255. V26R
You're smart not to have!
Still cannot understand these guys that you see on National Geographic and Discovery chasing them in their pickup trucks
Good Morning Everyone
257. V26R
Heard from a Cousin down in Marathon that they had Water Spout Warnings eary in the day
Don't know if they ever materialized
258. V26R
And a Very Good Morning to you Sir!
Looks nasty up there V26R good thing u stayed home.

New york Radar




There was damage-a-plenty down here after last nights storm
261. V26R
You know I can tolerate the snow, but the Ice I really hate
Its easing off now, but Wind is really picking up, We're supposed to get about 2-3 inches of snow on the backside of this thing
Thats not going to be fun, Ice underneath Snow!
It was a rough night for everyone in the south and south east
Be careful..ice bad stuff under fresh fallen snow.
264. V26R
This thing is really winding up now
Pressure is dropping at 29.28 in
Link
Pressure down 5.9 mb in last hour at Nantucket.
Pressure also down to 28.97 (981 mb) at Montauk, NY
The low center appears to be tracking a little further west than expected, currently heading west of buoy 44025.


Metro France might issue a Red Alert this weekend for Reunion if Favio can get up to CYCLONE tropicale status.
Another upcoming cyclone for the indian ocean
Montauk at 2 pm has a pressure of 28.92 (979.2 mb) and calm winds. Must be at the center!
The two large lows are coming into phase in the NE.

Its not really showing up on the models(yet) but a system seems to be taking shape in west Texas. I wonder why it isnt registering in the forecasts??

The models, GFS at least, seem to have a high building there.

The Campeche swirl is there again today. I love that little thing. Look at the intersecting lines - it seems to be connected to every major frontal system in north America - like a pivot or something.

Theres an area off Texas that looks interesting too.
272. V26R
Oh great, With the cold air this thing is going to pull down, this one we will really get some snow!
Guess the old saying does apply, Snow Breads Snow!
273. V26R
Pressure here in Staten Island is 29.17in
with a northerly wind
Visible imagery of the meteosat-7.



Animated view of 14S...



CLOSE-UP 1KM ON MODIS.

276. V26R
Looks like maybe a bit too much shear to let it rip
Ok now - I was out working in my garden and went to turn on the water and got a shock because a Snake was out sunning himself.

So as the locals say The Snakes, they are a crawling today witch usually is mid to late April -- sometimes in very warm years March but - Ive never seen them out feb 14!!!!!!

The super low seems to have stalled and low pressure IS officially building in west Texas - Look for a revision in the forecasts - hopefully I will get rain out of it!
well it should be getting cooler in FL soon, that is gonna be a shivering snake!
We were supposed to be 62 today but its 66 now. And the pressure is dropping a bit. I think this system is stalled.

Wow - on the NWS forecast sprinkles just popped up tomorrow. Yay!
Good evening Everyone
High temp yesterday was near 70 degrees, high temp today, 45 degrees. I live 10 minutes south of Hattiesburg,MS. I noticed yesterday afternoon it was 74 in Mobile, and at the same time, 44 in Shreveport, LA. Quite a front, indeed.
HURRICANE23: Are you still here? If you are you got WU-MAIL. Whenever you get a chance to read it.Have fun. I'm gonna hang around for a few to see if you answer if not I'll be back later.
283. ryang
Hello
so how cold do you think it is going to get this weekend in miami? will be go into the thirties or stay in the low 40's
285. ryang
Hey 12,yes.
I am amazed by the chicken littles. History proves the temperatures go up and down and always have. Volcanos do more to produce greenhouse gas than man ever could. Saying man is responsible for global warming is false information. I do not believe everyone that blames man for changes in temperature are liars only that they are misinformed. Man is not to blame but if we listen to the nuts I guess the answer is destroy all animals and humans to stop the production of gas. This is all political nothing more nothing less.
Sorry john,but humans produce far more greenhouse gases than volcanoes.You may be right that GW is not human induced,but you're wrong to say we don't produce as many greenhouse gases as volcanoes.
Look at how the waves went up at the buoy just east of Boston. They were less than a foot last night at 2 am!

Link
Looks like 14S has indeed gotten futher organized with deep convection now consolidating and looking more cymmetrical.Futher intensification seems likely.



Another view...




John I would say that you are half right...their is alot of politics involved and the main contributors (if true) are out of our control so why do they insist on feeding this information down our throats when it is the governments of the world that have the power to do something about GW. I think that we did not cause it but be have inhanced it. Now we have records dating back until the 1800's which is known as being a cooler period, so the fact that scientists seem to think that something like this has never happened before is ridiculous and irresponsible.
Temperature records go back a lot further than that, we have accurate readings going back thousands of years, from ice core readings, and highly resolved records from the last few millenia in ice sheets. The world as a whole was actually warmer 4-6 thousand years ago, in the Holocene optimum. It was almost as warm in the medieval warm period (it was warmer in northwestern Europe 1000 years ago than today, although other parts of the globe were cooler, so the average global temperature was not quite as warm) The point is that we have already increased the concentration of CO2 and methane far beyond any levels during the past 740,000 years of ice core readings. The projected increases in fossil fuel consumption (especially coal) will continue to cause rising concentrations of CO2 in the air at an accelerating rate. 500 ppm and 600 ppm concentrations are assured, and they may well go higher than that. The world will warm as a result, and the possibility of feedbacks, such as clathrate releases or methane releases from the boreal forestsor increased heat retention from smaller snowpacks and sea ice fields are very real, even if no one is *SURE* how those feedbacks will play out, or if there are others no one has thought of yet.

Another point is that global warming will not stop at 2100. The high CO2 concentrations will continue to cause temperatures to rise by several degrees in the century after that. And the century after that. And the century after that. Small reductions in the growth rates of emissions in the short term, and gradual future reductions in emissions in the long term, can have large effects in where the CO2 concentrations at the end of the century end up

Although I personally believe that India and China's coal use will probably send us into catastrophic global warming in centuries to come, I could well be wrong, and we should work to try to limit emissions--and to encourage developing countries to develop energy resources in more efficient ways and that produce lesser emissions. Reducing emission growth from business as usual could well provide critical time for us to adapt to a greenhouse world.

We are running a huge planetary experiment in which we will soon double CO2 concentrations above any in the last million years, and have already almost tripled methane concentrations. This will greatly increase the amount of heat trapped at the surface and in the atmosphere. How specific negative and positive feedbacks will play out is not known with certainty, but it is almost certain that the world will be profoundly changed, and not for the better. The world as it has been has been good for mankind. Our succeeding generations will not be so fortunate.
It is very difficult to find any true facts.. Statistics are being used to fulfill prejuced intentions. This not science. I do not deny we have hurt some parts of the enviroment. In many areas we have helped. There are more trees growing now than any time in the last 200 years based on solid scientific data. This is an extreme positive that is never factored in. The facts are not easy to find.
There are more trees growing now than any time in the last 200 years based on solid scientific data

I don't buy that show me the scientific data!
Today in the amazon deforestation is going at a rate of thousands of acres per day! Plus two hundred years ago we didn't have people cutting down the south american rain forest.
New invest in the NW pacific on the FNMOC site.Winds are curently at 15kts.



WFO Guam Sectors

FNMOC visible view

maybe there are more trees growing from being planted, but there are also a lot more being cut down.

Actually, he may be right since forest cover over the United States, western and central Europe, and China is increasing, while it decreases in South America, Africa and India/southeast Asia.

One of the neat things going on is that young growing forests pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere as their biomass increases (a mature forest is CO2 neutral) So the young growing forests in the USA are pulling out more than 1.5 billion tons of CO2 annually now. That is enough to make a difference, it offsets more than 10% of the CO2 emissions of the USA. As the forests mature, CO2 net absorbtion will decrease.

Assuming constant birth rates and immigration (illegal + legal) the population of the USA will rise from 301 million today to 953 million in 2100, with population rising by 10 million annually by that time. That population projections seems high to me. If anything fairly close to it takes place, I don't see how the USA can avoid net forest losses that raise CO2 emissions, AND think of all the cars and air conditioning that people will use!
Good morning everyone. Hi H23. So does everyone thing La Nina is going to come into effect for hurricane season? And when might we see the conditions? Are we in Neutral conditions right know or is El Nino trying to hang in there? I know I'm full of questions this morning. Oh yeah I'm not trying to make anyone make aprediction I just figured I'd listen to what other folks where thinking that's all. Well I'll be reading in the back ground til someone wants to talk about it. I know it's a little to early to be talking about hurricane season but it don't hurt to wonder.
Burlington VT set a record for the snowiest day, the snowiest 24-hour period, the heaviest precipitation in a day (water equivalent) in the month of February) and the second highest total in a snowstorm with this storm.

What is kinda odd to me looking at the records there is that there had never been a really heavy snowstorm in February before. The previous heaviest snowstorm in FEb was 17.8 inches, and was 10th on their all time list. 25.5 inches fell yesterday, which is quite impressive for a place now downwind of a great lake or near the coast!
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 10:54 AM EST on February 15, 2007.

Good morning everyone. Hi H23. So does everyone thing La Nina is going to come into effect for hurricane season? And when might we see the conditions?

Right now the way i see it the POAMA model is forcasting anything form neutral conditions to la nina atleast threw the end of september.were basically looking at a more active season number wise this time around across the atlantic basin.There are alot of things yet to evolve like for example how will the all important steering currents set up?Or how will the SAL be around the basin remember that the Sal Factor was one of the main reasons that caused the 2006 season to be an average season with (10/5/2).Indeed alot of questions that we will probably not know the answer to for another couple of months.Also keep in mind a quite season can also be deadly it only takes one to ruin lives.1992 is a great example of that with andrew.Adrian

Here is graphic of the POAMA model.

CLICK ON THUMBNAIL


Graphic of models in pretty agreement of atleast Neutral threw the first half of the 2007 hurricane season.

See Graphic Here
OK H23 I know I'm gonna sound dumb but I gotta ask ok, What do neutral mean? Does neutral it don't inhibit or hibit the situation. I know what I'm trying to say it just want come out right. So do you understand what I'm saying.
Good Afternoon H23 and everyone else.
Neutral means in the middle
Please don't think I'm gripping I'm just wondering why Dr.M don't update his articles everyday like he does like in hurricane season? I've notice the same stuff is up for 3-5 days at a time. Or is it because there just not much to write about? Remember I am not gripping I'm just wondering. I don't want to get into any trouble.
Sheri Whether there are Neutral or la nina conditions present they both favor good atmospheric conditions that will allow tropical developement across the basin.

To futher understand here are a few links that have been useful to me.

1-La nina and el nino resources
2-Madden-Julian Oscillation
3-CPC-MJO page
4-MJO-Research