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April's tornado outbreaks the two largest in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on May 05, 2011

The largest tornado outbreak and greatest one-day total for tornadoes in history occurred during last week's historic super tornado outbreak, said NOAA in a press release on Wednesday. They estimate 190 tornadoes touched down during the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28 (132 tornadoes have already been confirmed, with several weeks of damage surveys still to come.) NOAA's estimate for the number of tornadoes during the three-day April 25 - 28, 2011 Super Outbreak, is 305. This is nearly double the previous record for a multi-day tornado outbreak of 155 tornadoes, set just two weeks previously during the April 14 - 16, 2011 outbreak. There were tornado outbreaks in May 2004 (385 tornadoes) and May 2003 (401 tornadoes) that had more tornadoes, but these outbreaks occurred over an eight-day and eleven-day period, respectively, and were not due to a single storm system. Prior to April 2011, the most tornadoes in a 24-hour period, and in an outbreak lasting less than four days, was the 148 tornadoes in the Super Outbreak of April 3 - 4, 1974.



Figure 1. A truly frightening radar image: multiple hook echoes from at least ten supercell thunderstorms cover Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee during the height of the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak. A multi-hour animation is available here.



Figure 2. Preliminary tornado tracks from NWS survets for the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak. Image credit: NWS Southern Region.

The death toll for the epic outbreak continues to fluctuate, and has decreased substantially to 318. The count decreased in Alabama from 250 to 236 due to some of the victims being counted twice. There are still hundreds of people missing from the tornado, and search teams have not yet made it to all of the towns ravaged by the tornadoes. The estimated 318 deaths makes this is the 4th or 5th deadliest tornado outbreak on record. Only the great Tri-State tornado outbreak of 1925 (747 killed), the 1936 Tupelo-Gainsville tornado outbreak (454 killed), and a 1932 outbreak (332 killed) had more deaths.

Other notable facts from the great April 25 -28, 2011 tornado outbreak
The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado is likely to be the most expensive tornado of all-time, and damage from the April 25 - 28 outbreak is the most expensive tornado outbreak in history. Insured damages have been rated at $2 - $5 billion, and uninsured losses will be several billion more. The previous most expensive tornado outbreak in history was the $3.5 billion price tag, in 2005 dollars, of the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak .

The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado caused at least 65 fatalities. This tornado had a maximum width of 1.5 miles and a track 80 miles long. These are the most fatalities from a single tornado in the United States since May 25, 1955, when 80 people were killed in a tornado in southern Kansas with 75 of those deaths in Udall, Kansas.

NOAA estimates there were more than 600 tornadoes during the month of April 2011, shattering previous records. The previous April tornado record was 267, set in 1974. April has averaged just 161 tornadoes over the past decade. The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542, set in May 2003. So far there have been an estimated 881 tornadoes in 2011. The annual tornado record is 1,817, set in 2004. May is historically the most active month for tornadoes.

So far, 2011 is the 13th deadliest year for tornadoes on record with 369, and the deadliest year since the advent of Doppler radar in late 1980s and 1990s. The deadliest year on record is 1925 with 794.

The outbreak had fourteen violent tornadoes--two EF-5s (the Smithville, MS tornado, and the Hackleburg, AL tornado), and twelve EF-4s. The Super Outbreak of 1974 had far more violent tornadoes, with an unprecedented seven F5s and 23 F4s.

National Weather Service forecast offices provided plenty of warning for the tornadoes, issuing life-saving tornado warnings with an average lead-time of 24 minutes. Warnings were in effect for more than 90 percent of the tornadoes.


Figure 3. Youtube video of the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April 27, 2011, as it hit Birmingham.

The most violent tornado of the outbreak: the 210-mph Hackleburg tornado
The most violent and longest-lived tornado of the great April 26 - 28, 2011 outbreak was the Hackleburg tornado. This tornado initially touched down in Northwest Alabama near the Mississippi border, then roared to the northeast for 132.1 miles into Tennessee, causing EF-5 damage at many locations along its path. The most significant damage occurred in the town of Phil Campbell, wind in excess of 200 mph sucked up a 25-foot section of pavement and scattered it up to 1/3 mile away. Tornadoes that can suck up pavement are a rare breed, earning this twister its EF-5 rating. The tornado intensified even further as it hit the town of Oak Grove, where winds estimated at 210 mph over a swath more than one mile wide completely destroyed many buildings, tossed a Corvette 641 feet, and tossed another large car so far that it has not yet been found.

A list of the pages at each National Weather Service forecast office on the tornadoes from the April 25 - 28 outbreak that affected their area (posted by wunderground member beell, thanks!):

Birmingham, AL
Huntsville, AL
Mobile, AL
Little Rock, AR
Tallahasse, FL
Atlanta, GA
Louisville, KY
Paducah, KY
Shreveport, LA
Jackson, MS
Albany, NY
Binghamton, NY
Wilmington, OH
State College, PA
Columbia, SC
Greenville, SC
Memphis, TN
Morristown, TN
Nashville, TN
Dallas, TX
Blacksburg, VA
Sterling, VA
Wakefield, VA

All-time Mississippi River flood records fall
This week, for the first time in 74 years, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to intentionally destroy the Birds Point levee on the west bank of the Mississippi River, just downstream from the river's confluence with the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois continues to fall this morning, thanks to this emergency operation, with a level two feet below the all-time peak of 61.8' set on Monday night. The destruction of the Birds Point levee also helped slow the rise of the Mississippi River just south of its confluence with the Ohio River, but the river is still rising slowly, and has now set all-time records at New Madrid, Missouri, Tiptonville, Tennessee, and Caruthersville, Missouri--a 70-mile stretch of river downstream from Cairo. The massive pulse of flood waters will continue downstream for the next 2 - 3 weeks, setting all-time flood records at many locations. The National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi has created a nice "May 2011 Mississippi River Flood" web page that details the current stages, expected crests, and previous record crests along the river's path. Currently, the Mississippi is expected to reach its 2nd highest level on record at Memphis on May 11, beat the all-time record at Vicksburg, Mississippi by 1.3' on May 20, and smash the all-time record at Natchez, Mississippi by six feet on May 22. I'll be saying much more about this unprecedented Mississippi flood on Friday, and throughout the month of May.


Figure 4. The Portlight relief trailer being loaded in Summerville, SC, in preparation for a journey to the tornado disaster zone.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog. They have been very active in this disaster, bringing aid to many of the victims of this great tragedy.

Jeff Masters
Camp Creek Greeneville, TN Tornado Damage Part 2
Camp Creek Greeneville, TN Tornado Damage Part 2

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

That was one scary radar image. May never see that again.
Confound it, Recoon got lost in the shuffle.

Excellent update, Dr. Masters. I am glad you'll continue to cover the flooding.
First.
Great summary,DrMasters.
Thank you!
Thanks for the update.
What a year 2011 has been when it comes to weather.I hope hurricanes don't add to the picture.Or it will be UNPRECEDENTED.
Records being broke everywhere. Blizzards, Snowfall, Cold; and now, Floods, Drought, and Tornadoes. A spring to remember for sure with our weather.
Quoting washingtonian115:
What a year 2011 has been when it comes to weather.I hope hurricanes don't add to the picture.Or it will be UNPRECEDENTED.

Without a doubt, wash.
Saw a special on NBC the other night on the Hackleburg tornado and the destruction is much worse there than in Tuscaloosa. Everything was gone, not one thing was left standing. It looked worse than the hurricane Andrew damage from 1992. Even heard stories of hair being ripped off animals in Hackleburg. Amazing!
I'm still wondering where all those chickens went.
Also heard on NBC that 75% of all buildings in Hackleburg were destroyed. Brian Williams and Chris Hansen did that story.
Thank you Dr. Masters.
Quoting RastaSteve:
That was one scary radar image. May never see that again.

Let's hope not.
Quoting RastaSteve:
That was one scary radar image. May never see that again.

If a Hollywood producer had created a radar image like that a year ago for an effects-filled tornado catastrophe movie, we likely would have all laughed at the overkill, thinking such a scene wasn't possible. Just about every thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon/evening ended up with a hook echo and at least a tornado warning.

Scary indeed.

It should be noted that the 305 estimated tornadoes for the entire outbreak is far lower than the 434 eyewitness preliminary reports received by NOAA, so don't look for that 305 number to shrink by a whole lot. In fact, I'd be surprised if the final number wasn't at least 275 or so.
Also heard another heart wrenching story of a woman who lost everything including her husband and kids to the tornado that hit Ringold, GA. In some cases the only way to survive those tornadoes was to be underground as they were just that violent.
Quoting Neapolitan:

If a Hollywood producer had created a radar image like that a year ago for an effects-filled tornado catastrophe movie, we likely would have all laughed at the overkill, thinking such a scene wasn't possible. Just about every thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon/evening ended up with a hook echo and at least a tornado warning.

Scary indeed.

It should be noted that the 305 estimated tornadoes for the entire outbreak is far lower than the 434 eyewitness preliminary reports received by NOAA, so don't look for that 305 number to shrink by a whole lot. In fact, I'd be surprised if the final number wasn't at least 275 or so.


I know I haven't been here as long as let's say Grother but of my 31 years of existance I have never seen anything like that unfold and I agree with you if an Hollywood producer did a movie about a tornado outbreak lets say a year ago we would have laughed about the exaggeration of what could happen. Nice talking to you Nea!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hackleburg:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
That deseveres a Damn!.
Thanks, Dr. M.

And a shout out for beell. And his avatar.

lmao.
Just want to let my American friends know that there is also a 150yr flood happening right now south of Montreal on the Richelieu river.

The Canadian Army has been sent in to help residents.

"At least 3,000 homes and businesses have been flooded in the Richelieu Valley, and 1,000 people had left their homes by Thursday morning in the worst flooding in the region in 150 years."


There was also serious flooding in Manitoba on the Red River but not record levels.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hackleburg:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Wiped clean. Truely amazing the power of nature. You may like this one Nea. They did a story on TWC last night and they were talking about as the Earth is warming storms are becoming more violent due to the icreased moisture being pumped into the jet stream. Also was noted on TWC of how there seems to be a shift taking place to the tradionally called Tornado Alley into the SE US like ARK to GA. There have been many tornado outbreaks just in the last 10 years in the SE US that have been record breaking.
What just last year we had the Yazoo City tornado.
Oh my lord that's a frightening radar image.
24. IKE
  • Oil -6.19
  • Price/barrel $103.05
WOOHOO!
Quoting IKE:

  • Oil -6.19

  • Price/barrel $103.05
WOOHOO!


Why the big drop? You think it's because we got Osama.
26. IKE

Quoting RastaSteve:


Why the big drop? You think it's because we got Usama.
Not sure....you may be right.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Why the big drop? You think it's because we got Usama.


This is why: crude inventories grew by 3.4 million barrels last week, while oil demand fell by 1.256 million barrels per day
Quoting IKE:
  • Oil -6.19
  • Price/barrel $103.05
WOOHOO!


I bet you the price at the pump never reflects this drop. It will stabilize until the price per barrel goes back up again.
Quoting aquak9:
I'm still wondering where all those chickens went.


Across the road.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


This is why: crude inventories grew by 3.4 million barrels last week, while oil demand fell by 1.256 million barrels per day

The demand probably fell due to sticker shock from gas prices...

Last time pump prices got this high, they stabilized due to (in part) sticker shock.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


This is why: crude inventories grew by 3.4 million barrels last week, while oil demand fell by 1.256 million barrels per day


"OMG ,demand is down, we have to increase the price to maintain the profits for the investors."

next week

"OMG, demand is up, so that means there will be a shortage, we have to increase prices to make up for this future shortage, to keep our investors happy so I get my big bonus."

etc, etc, ad infinitum
Quoting PcolaDan:


Across the road.


groan...I so definitely asked for that...
Quoting aquak9:


groan...I so definitely asked for that...


couldn't constrain myself. :)
Quoting PcolaDan:


"OMG ,demand is down, we have to increase the price to maintian the profits for the investors."

next week

"OMG, demand is up, so that means there will be a shortage, we have to increase prices to make up for this future shortage."

etc, etc, ad infinitum


Yep, sadly that's the case. Fortunately for me, I only spend about $50/month. I believe Ike posted earlier the average household spends $368/month.
25-foot segment of PAVEMENT ripped from the ground and scattered it up to 1/3 mile away?

Unreal.
A list of the pages at each National Weather Service forecast office on the tornadoes from the April 25 - 28 outbreak that affected their area (posted by wunderground member beell, thanks!):

My pleasure, Doc M.
Thank you for the update!
Quoting DestinJeff:


why?


Looking for the rooster.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Looking for the rooster.

LOL I knew that was coming...
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters, truly surreal events taking place almost on a regular basis now, it's kinda scary. Hurricane season is up next....
Birmingham is very fortunate that tornado didn't travel through the metro area. Scary stuff. Historically, what type of hurricane season follows the set up we had last year? Big storms last year, to be sure, but conus got lucky. I hope our luck holds :)
The back wall tore away from the building, and the door to my closet began shaking open and I kept pulling it back closed. After a couple seconds of this struggle, the door and I were sucked out of the closet and through the back wall.

I never rose more than a couple feet off the ground, but judging from memories of where things were, I flew about 40 feet total. The winds flung me from the back wall into the chain link fence 10-15 feet behind my apartment with enough force to leave bruises of the chain links in my side.


First hand account of surviving the Tuscaloosa tornado. Quite a story...
The BBC is reporting today workes at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant have entered one of its reactor building for the first time since it was hit by the earthquare and tsunami March 11. They are installing ventilation systens in the No 1 reactor to filter out radioactive material from the air. Twelve engineers will work inside the reactor building in shifts of 10 minutes.
bbc.co.uk
46. IKE
  • Oil -7.46
  • Price/barrel $101.78
Quoting muddertracker:
Birmingham is very fortunate that tornado didn't travel through the metro area. Scary stuff.

If you look at the satellite image of the tornado's path through the northern fringe of the city, you'll realize that an even far bigger disaster was averted. Had the storm moved along a path just two or three miles south of the one it took, the twister would have chewed through 10 miles of densely-populated urban area, likely killing hundreds (if not thousands) and costing possibly tens of billions in property damage.

The term "dodged a bullet" is probably overused, but I think it fits here.

birmingham
Quoting IKE:

  • Oil -7.46

  • Price/barrel $101.78


Gasoline on the Merc down 16 cpg. Important to remember that is different than how it's priced at the rack in every area of the country.
Quoting FtMyersgal:
The BBC is reporting today workes at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant have entered one of its reactor building for the first time since it was hit by the earthquare and tsunami March 11. They are installing ventilation systens in the No 1 reactor to filter out radioactive material from the air. Twelve engineers will work inside the reactor building in shifts of 10 minutes.
bbc.co.uk


& not a moment too soon..Iodine-131 48hr forecast..

NOAA is out with the updated numbers from last week's super outbreak of tornadoes:

DATE | REPORTS | NOAA ESTIMATE | CONFIRMED

25-26 | 55 | 40 | 25

26-27 | 111 | 75 | 42

27-28 | 268 | 190 | 134

TOTAL | 434 | 305 | 201

Fatalities are the same as yesterday's numbers: 318 overall, with 309 of those killed during the 24-hour period beginning Wednesday at 8AM CDT.

NOAA says that exact numbers on casualties will take weeks, while precise numbers on tornadoes and their strength could take months.
@ Nea... Agreed. Wow.
Besides the floods weather news is fairly quiet..UK is starting to burn a little. China's drought has reached extreme. They need rain now or many crops won't happen this year.

Environmental pollution abound today..
A Russian nuclear sub is leaking in the Arctic.

& Yuck... Crude oil mixed into tap water when a water pipe passing under a waste containment pit owned by the Turkish Petroleum Corporation, or TPAO, was cut in the southeastern province of Adıyaman on Thursday. Residents using water coming from the Kırkgöz distribution line alerted the authorities when they noticed the smell of petroleum and the change of color in tap water, broadcaster NTV reported on its website. more

Update on Canada's largest oil spill ever..
I just posted this at my WebSite under the Forum Tab. If you wanna review it you may go do so to review. Sorry i can't post the link as i would get banned! Email me if you don't have the link or ask others for it.


Ok, i just compiled some data together for you all to look at.
I just did a Correlation Coefficent between the average of the last 21 years of Hurricanes vs. Tornadoes. There is very alarming figure that arrived. With the exception of a couple of years the findings was very easy to understand. Now, one thing one would have to realize was there are more Tornadoes that come ashore during land falling hurricane years. So what i did to try to offset those figures was take out the high and lows of all Categories of Hurricanes, Major Hurricanes, and Tornodoes for the Year.
My findings show a high probability that during an Over Active Tornado Season also a Very Active Hurricane Season also occurs. You can click on the link below to see my DATA!!!
They say it's nice this time of year
On Jupiter...
Except for the meteors.

moe; "Nebraska"

wind in excess of 200 mph sucked up a 25-foot section of pavement and scattered it up to 1/3 mile away. Tornadoes that can suck up pavement are a rare breed, earning this twister its EF-5 rating.



...another question Aqua

where was the road when the chickens crossed it?
Quoting IKE:
  • Oil -7.46
  • Price/barrel $101.78


Down 10% in 4 days and set up to drop again Fri. when the jobs numbers come out. We all know what those numbers are going to look like...

I'm telling ya, they do whatever they want with these crude prices and it's ridiculous.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just posted this at my WebSite under the Forum Tab. If you wanna review it you may go do so to review. Sorry i can't post the link as i would get banned! Email me if you don't have the link or ask others for it.


Ok, i just compiled some data together for you all to look at.
I just did a Correlation Coefficent between the average of the last 21 years of Hurricanes vs. Tornadoes. There is very alarming figure that arrived. With the exception of a couple of years the findings was very easy to understand. Now, one thing one would have to realize was there are more Tornadoes that come ashore during land falling hurricane years. So what i did to try to offset those figures was take out the high and lows of all Categories of Hurricanes, Major Hurricanes, and Tornodoes for the Year.
My findings show a high probability that during an Over Active Tornado Season also a Very Active Hurricane Season also occurs. You can click on the link below to see my DATA!!!




That's funny TSpin - I am working on the same thing, just a little different. I am taking the top 5 of each and was hoping to find the opposite. If you look at the two previous record tornado outbreaks (74 & 06), the following hurricane season was rather tranquil.

Nice to see someone else interested in the topic, good work.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Down 10% in 4 days and set up to drop again Fri. when the jobs numbers come out. We all know what those numbers are going to look like...

I'm telling ya, they do whatever they want with these crude prices and it's ridiculous.


Ya, this morning a very high jump in the 1st time claims in the Unemployment claims. Could be attributed somewhat to the Tornadoes, but i doubt that is correlated as a delay in any claims from that would take about another 2-3 weeks! Don't expect Gas prices to fall just because Crude Oil prices have fallen. The price of gas is not a supply and demand issue. Its the weak dollar is the problem.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:




That's funny TSpin - I am working on the same thing, just a little different. I am taking the top 5 of each and was hoping to find the opposite. If you look at the two previous record tornado outbreaks (74 & 06), the following hurricane season was rather tranquil.

Nice to see someone else interested in the topic, good work.



NICE! Here is the spreadsheet compiled if this would help you. Since it not my website, i don't think i will be banned for it..........heck who knows anymore!

https://spreadsheets0.google.com/spreadsheet/pub? hl=en&hl=en&key=0Av6IU88SFHx5dEkxQl9Pcy1LcTlKZzhua XJKMXZnRWc&output=html
oil and gas prices getting crushed today oil below 100 dollars a bbl and gasoline down 26 cents
Quoting eddy12:
oil and gas prices getting crushed today oil below 100 dollars a bbl and gasoline down 26 cents


Sudden big drops like that are going to tick people off. Obviously happy that they are going down however.

I think it's ironic that the government just organized a task force on the matter.
Thanks for that TSpin.

One would like to think that there is some sort of pattern to this however, I think Mother Nature traded in her grey mare for a shiny new hot rod and is sporting a rebellious attitude.
watching the futures dropping very quickly below 99 now more than 10% today on changes in margins and slightly stronger dollar
Dr Jeff, thank you so much for the latest updates all very interesting.
A lot of weather going on around the world.

Good afternoon everyone,

been reading your comments; very interesting stuff here today.

just wanted to pop in and say Hello.

Carry On!
Howdy SEFLG
Interesting that as soon as a commission is formally threatened to be formed regarding oil prices...

they go into free fall.

hrmm....
67. IKE
  • Oil -9.63
  • Price/barrel $99.61
Quoting IKE:

  • Oil -9.63

  • Price/barrel $99.61

Something fishy going on here...

Did we have some kind of deal with the Middle East that if we took care of Bin Laden we'd get a bunch of their oil stores? Interested to see how long before pump prices actually drop...if at all.
Quoting jeffs713:
Interesting that as soon as a commission is formally threatened to be formed regarding oil prices...

they go into free fall.

hrmm....


Or it just might be that the economy is starting to crumble under the weight of the oil prices, just like it did last time. People drive less, travel less and as a result, others lose their jobs. Dominoes.
Quoting jeffs713:
Interesting that as soon as a commission is formally threatened to be formed regarding oil prices...

they go into free fall.

hrmm....
Hi everyone. I think the prices are just a shift in the market. However, I would love to have the gov't do something along the lines of fixing the price of gasoline since the oil companies are making such huge profits. It smacks of price gouging.
wti crude 98.69 per bbl down over 10 dollars
Quoting jeffs713:
Interesting that as soon as a commission is formally threatened to be formed regarding oil prices...

they go into free fall.

hrmm....


It's all a bunch of BS. Speculators can drive prices up/down as they see fit and the media jams it down our throats. Libya produces 2% of the worlds oil but sure enough prices rose as a result of the unrest there.

Oil can drop to $80/barrel and I'm sure we'd only see a modest decrease in gas prices. Big Oil will moan & groan about it then report quarterly profits of 5-10 billion.

Sigh - I'm obviously in the wrong profession.
The Euro is showing one heck of a stormy pattern for FL and the Central Gulf Coast starting later next week. Could this be the rainy season showing up on the models? Well see as the Euro has been persistant in showing a major pattern change for the Gulf Coast including FL.

Run the Euro Long Range and you might like what you see and that is a direct plume of tropical moisture right into the eastern Gulf from the Caribbean.

75. IKE
  • Oil- 10.32
  • Price/barrel $98.92
Oh my:)
it is not about the mid east 22.4% of our oil comes from canada by far the biggest supplier
Quoting RastaSteve:
The Euro is showing one heck of a stormy pattern for FL and the Central Gulf Coast starting later next week. Could this be the rainy season showing up on the models? Well see as the Euro has been persistant in showing a major pattern change for the Gulf Coast including FL.

Run the Euro Long Range and you might like what you see and that is a direct plume of tropical moisture right into the eastern Gulf from the Caribbean.




Sub Tropical jet looks active during that time period.

120hr GFS 200mb. FL is in the extreme top left, top image.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Sub Tropical jet looks active during that time period.

120hr GFS 200mb. FL is in the extreme top left, top image.



The Euro is showing major changes come days 8 thru 10.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel. htm
wti = west texas intermediate crude now 98.34 per bbl rbob = unleaded gasoline now 3.06 down over 25 cents
Quoting RastaSteve:


The Euro is showing major changes come days 8 thru 10.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel. htm


That is consistent with what I am seeing.

I had said this morning that significant changes are modeled in the GFS by the end of the 5 day forecast.
Did the Gas Bubble Burst?

No Pun Intended, lol, however realized.
Kinda funny the US launches an investigation about the sky rocketing gas prices and now they are plummeting. LOL! Down now $10.50 today.
Quoting RastaSteve:
The Euro is showing one heck of a stormy pattern for FL and the Central Gulf Coast starting later next week. Could this be the rainy season showing up on the models? Well see as the Euro has been persistant in showing a major pattern change for the Gulf Coast including FL.

Run the Euro Long Range and you might like what you see and that is a direct plume of tropical moisture right into the eastern Gulf from the Caribbean.



I hope you're right. Aside from a 30-40% chance of precip tomorrow, there's nada in the forecast through May 14th up my way with temps in high 80's/low 90's
investigation by us govt nothing to do with it, all commodities getting hammered today from gold to wheat and everything in between
oil coming back off the lows now over 99 dollars per bbl
I'm always amused that when crude prices shoot up, prices at the pump follow suit almost immediately--"We are paying more to refine it, so we have to pass that cost along to you,", the local retailer will tell you. But when those crude prices tumble, it takes sometimes weeks for the pump prices to fall, as well--and if you ask why, the retailer will say, "The gasoline in our tanks was refined at the previously higher price, so we have to pass that cost along to you."

Oh, well. ;-) Anyway, I talked to some relatives in Wyoming who said that a local gas war saw prices drop to just over $3.00 a gallon a few days ago. Guess it's over now, but fun while it lasted... ;-)
Quoting StAugustineFL:


I hope you're right. Aside from a 30-40% chance of precip tomorrow, there's nada in the forecast through May 14th up my way with temps in high 80's/low 90's


Now this is just the Euro and sometimes these long range models can change. Well just have to wait and see if the Euro continues this trend and see if the GFS follows. Usually the Euro wins out but well see!
Quoting kwgirl:
Hi everyone. I think the prices are just a shift in the market. However, I would love to have the gov't do something along the lines of fixing the price of gasoline since the oil companies are making such huge profits. It smacks of price gouging.


The profits don't come from gasoline production, ma'am. They come from producing oil and liquids. And the majority of profits are from non-US production.

I posted ExxonMobi's 1Q profits on the prior blog (I don't work there but they garner the most discussion since they are the biggest so I used them) - 7 of the 10 billion was liquid and natural gas production from non-US. Gasoline and deisel netted them 600 million in the US.

Go check on some other industries 1Q profit and compare 600 mill to that...
Nice to see the price of a barrel drop, hopefully the gas stations follow suit.
neap rbob price is the important one not wti price
that many tornadoes is krazy!
Quoting eddy12:
wti = west texas intermediate crude now 98.34 per bbl rbob = unleaded gasoline now 3.06 down over 25 cents


So when I fill up tomorrow the price will be 25 cents cheaper immediately because it sure can rise that quickly... or will it take a few weeks (yea right!) for the price to filter down to the consumer.
Quoting snotly:


So when I fill up tomorrow the price will be 25 cents cheaper immediately because it sure can rise that quickly... or will it take a few weeks (yea right!) for the price to filter down to the consumer.


It's inversely proportional. $10 decrease in price = 10 cent increase at the pump.
no it won't these prices are for june delivery
Quoting RastaSteve:


The Euro is showing major changes come days 8 thru 10.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel. htm
I hope it is correct. Our luck in the Keys here is that it will very humid and NOT rain. Or rain over the ocean.
I hope Ike can downcast the storms like he's downcasted the oil prices.

CRS- if you're lurking- those chickens were a rare breed.
Quoting aquak9:
I hope Ike can downcast the storms like he's downcasted the oil prices.

CRS- if you're lurking- those chickens were a rare breed.


Eggsactly!
Quoting eddy12:
no it won't these prices are for june delivery


To Nea's point (post 86). Let's fast forward to June 15th as an example. The current prices for June delivery are reduced so we should hypothetically see mild relief at the pump next month. But, if oil spiked to $115-$120 per barrel in June (for July delivery), I bet the barn we'd be paying for it sooner rather than later.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


It's inversely proportional. $10 decrease in price = 10 cent increase at the pump.


oh yea, I forgot how generous they were. I get my insult and they throw in injury for free.
very, very dry here in Florida, there is a chance of a some rain and thunderstorms in Central Florida tomorrow but it will not be a huge deal...

After that a long period of dry weather returns. Hopefully the pattern will change, long range models do try and bring a pattern change with some rain into the area in the long range beyond day 7, but that's long range, so just wait and see, don't get your hopes up till it happens. The models in the long range said there would be afternoon storms every day this week about a week ago and it never turned out that way obviously. Its just too far out into the future.


Some years the wet season does get cranked up earlier in May instead of June. But man times its very dry till June. That being said the pattern change is worth keeping an eye on, but like I said its long range, don't get your hopes up yet.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050900
SPC AC 050900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

BY TUE/D6 INTO WED/D7...FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS AND BEGINS
MOVING EWD. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A SUBTROPICAL JET IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NWD AND PHASE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
WIND PROFILES.
ALL THE WHILE...A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS EACH DAY. TUE AND WED APPEAR TO HAVE A
GREATER TORNADO THREAT THAN ON SUN/MON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND
BETTER HODOGRAPHS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ON TUE WHEN A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.

GIVEN SOME SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGH ON D7...WILL
DEFER ON ADDING ANY ADDITIONAL AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 05/05/2011


Here comes the rainy season, whoo hooo....
StAug- don't forget the wild card- anything numbered or named gets north and west of Miami? all bets are OFF.

CRS- all kidding aside- REALLY- there were like 80,000 chickens lost from destruction of chicken warehouses. They HAD to go somewhere, if not scattered to the wind, either alive or dead, I mean that's a lot of chickens.
Quoting aquak9:
I hope Ike can downcast the storms like he's downcasted the oil prices.

CRS- if you're lurking- those chickens were a rare breed.


Aqua, have you forgotten that this is an upcasting year for Ike. Turned a new leaf, so-to-speak. So, don't sic him on the oil.
when gas prices go up ppl shop around for the lowest price when gas prices fall ppl stop shopping around as much for the lowest price meaning retailers can squeeze a few more cents out per gallon so gas prices generally rise twice as fast as they fall
Quoting aquak9:
StAug- don't forget the wild card- anything numbered or named gets north and west of Miami? all bets are OFF.

CRS- all kidding aside- REALLY- there were like 80,000 chickens lost from destruction of chicken warehouses. They HAD to go somewhere, if not scattered to the wind, either alive or dead, I mean that's a lot of chickens.


According to the latest Situation Report from Alabama Emergency Management, there were 3,167,800 birds lost.
Quoting aquak9:
StAug- don't forget the wild card- anything numbered or named gets north and west of Miami? all bets are OFF.

CRS- all kidding aside- REALLY- there were like 80,000 chickens lost from destruction of chicken warehouses. They HAD to go somewhere, if not scattered to the wind, either alive or dead, I mean that's a lot of chickens.

Haven't you see that commercial about "parts?" Pieces and parts, that is what makes up some of those nuggets and FF sandwiches. Those 80,000 or so chickens are now "parts."
107. beell
I found the chickens, aqua. Just a sad sight to see them laying all around like this-but they're ok.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST May 6 2011
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.0N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
Ya'll are bad. Ya'll are really, really bad. I hope you all have nightmares about chickens. Chickens with beady, pinhole eyes, and beaks that point west.
Aqua - there's only one way to track down those chickens.



Quoting aquak9:
Ya'll are bad. Ya'll are really, really bad. I hope you all have nightmares about chickens. Chickens with beady, pinhole eyes, and beaks that point west.


I know what happen to them chickens. Haven't you-all seen the grills going when the weather channel folks or the big newcasters show up with their cameras? I've noticed three or four large grills I woulsn't mind owning.
Needing to catch 8,000 chickens at work would make for a memorable day..
You know what? I hope many of those chickens lived, I hope they learn to fly real good, and build nests in trees. They'll become feral, and be known as The Wild Chickens of the South.

All I wanted to know was WHERE'D THE CHICKENS GO?? It's not like losing a set of car keys!!!
The action is "chick-en" up in here.
How many of the tornadoes currently observed in this 600/month of April were radar signature called? The only reason I ask is that the previous high was 260+ in 1974. This is crazy to me...so i wonder if a large amount of ef 1 or 2's were called THIS time due to the more advanced radar. ? ? ? Make sense?
Quoting aquak9:
You know what? I hope many of those chickens lived, I hope they learn to fly real good, and build nests in trees. They'll become feral, and be known as The Wild Chickens of the South.

All I wanted to know was WHERE'D THE CHICKENS GO?? It's not like losing a set of car keys!!!
I hope they lived too and are close by. I am sure some former family pets (dogs & cats)that now don't have a home are getting hungry.
NorthernEyewall- you weren't kidding! I read the report you linked. Now how do 3 million broilers, roasters, grillers and breeders just disappear?
Did anyone see this?


Third EF5

...TORNADO FROM NESHOBA COUNTY TO NOXUBEE COUNTY ON APRIL 27TH
UPGRADED TO EF-5 BASED ON ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION...


BASED ON A REVIEW OF DAMAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED IN NESHOBA...
KEMPER...WINSTON AND NOXUBEE COUNTIES BY METEOROLOGISTS WITH
EXPERTISE IN VIOLENT TORNADO DAMAGE ANALYSIS...IT HAS BEEN
DETERMINED THAT THIS TORNADO SHOULD BE RATED AS AN EF-5. THE BASIS
FOR THE UPGRADE IS FOUNDED UPON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS:

IN TWO LOCATIONS...THE TORNADO ACTUALLY GOUGED OUT LARGE SECTIONS OF
THE GROUND. IN ONE SPOT IN NORTHEAST NESHOBA COUNTY...THE GROUND WAS
DUG OUT TO A DEPTH OF AROUND 2 FEET OVER AN AREA APPROXIMATELY 25-50
YARDS WIDE AND A COUPLE OF HUNDRED YARDS LONG. SIMILAR GOUGES...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS LONG OR DEEP...WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN EXTREME
NORTHWEST KEMPER COUNTY. WHILE THE EXACT MECHANISM THAT CAUSED THIS
DAMAGE IS UNCLEAR...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS TYPE OF GROUND DAMAGE
IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EF-5 TORNADOES.

IN THE AREA OF NORTHWEST KEMPER COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND GOUGING WAS
OBSERVED...THERE WAS ALSO AN AREA WHERE PAVEMENT WAS REMOVED FROM
THE GROUND. WHILE THIS TYPE OF DAMAGE CAN BE CAUSED BY TORNADOES OF
LESS THAN EF-5 INTENSITY...THE FACT THAT PIECES OF ASPHALT WERE
FOUND AT A SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE AWAY...BOTH UPWIND AND DOWNWIND OF
THE ROAD...ARGUES FOR EXTREME WIND SPEEDS. SIMILAR TYPE DAMAGE WAS
ALSO OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NOXUBEE COUNTY.

FINALLY...EXTREME VEHICLE DAMAGE OF THE TYPE NORMALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH EF-5 TORNADOES WAS OBSERVED. THIS INCLUDED NEW VEHICLES BEING
MOVED MORE THAN 100 YARDS FROM WHERE THEY STARTED...AND BEING LEFT
IN A NEARLY UNRECOGNIZABLE STATE.

THE UPGRADING OF THIS TORNADO TO AN EF-5 MEANS THAT THIS IS THE
FIRST EF-5 TORNADO IN THE NWS JACKSON SERVICE AREA SINCE THE
CANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO ON MAY 3...1966. ADDITIONALLY...THIS MARKS
THE FIRST TIME SINCE STATISTICS HAVE BEEN KEPT THAT TWO EF-5
TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECORDED ON THE SAME DAY IN MISSISSIPPI...WITH
THE TORNADO IN SMITHVILLE ALSO RATED AN EF-5.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TORNADO...INCLUDING PICTURES AND VIDEO
OF THE DAMAGE...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN
(LOWER CASE) AND CLICK ON THE APRIL 25-27TH TORNADO OUTBREAK LINK IN
THE HEADLINE SECTION AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

COUNTY/PARISH: NESHOBA...KEMPER...WINSTON...AND NOXUBEE
BEGINNING POINT: 1 N PHILADELPHIA AT 230 PM
ENDING POINT: 6 SE MASHULAVILLE AT 300 PM
RATING: EF-5
MAX ESTIMATED WINDS 205 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 29 MILES
MAXIMUM WIDTH: .5 MILE
FATALITIES: 3
INJURIES: 8 (AT LEAST)

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE:

THIS TORNADO CAUSED A PATH OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN NORTHEAST NESHOBA,
EXTREME NORTHWEST KEMPER, EXTREME SOUTHEAST WINSTON, AND SOUTHWEST
NOXUBEE COUNTIES. THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN A SEVERAL MILE
AREA FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST NESHOBA COUNTY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
WINSTON COUNTY. THE THREE FATALITIES OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST KEMPER
COUNTY WHEN A STRAPPED DOWN DOUBLEWIDE MOBILE HOME WAS THROWN A
DISTANCE OF APPROXIMATELY 300 YARDS INTO A TREELINE, AND THEN
OBLITERATED WITH THE DEBRIS AND FRAMING SCATTERED MANY HUNDREDS OF
YARDS DOWN THE PATH. THERE WAS NO INDICATION OF GROUND IMPACTS
BETWEEN THE ORIGINAL SITE OF THE MOBILE HOME AND WHERE IT ENDED UP
TO INDICATE THAT THE MOBILE HOME BOUNCED EXTENSIVELY AS IT TRAVELED.
TWO TRADITIONAL FRAME BRICK HOMES IN SOUTHEAST WINSTON COUNTY WERE
COMPLETELY LEVELED WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL PARTS OF INTERIOR WALLS
STANDING. NEW VEHICLES WERE THROWN OR ROLLED HUNDREDS OF YARDS
BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO TREES AND LEFT ALMOST BEYOND RECOGNITION.
IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NESHOBA AND NORTHWEST KEMPER COUNTIES, THERE
WAS VERY HIGH END TREE DAMAGE WITH EXTENSIVE DENUDING AND DEBARKING
OF TREES, ALONG WITH AREAS WHERE THE GROUND WAS SCOURED OUT TO A
DEPTH OF TWO FEET IN PLACES, AND ASPHALT WAS SCOURED OFF PAVEMENT.

THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE METEOROLOGISTS THAT REVIEWED THE
DAMAGE INFORMATION TO ASSIST IN MAKING THIS RATING...AND ALSO THE
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WHO HELPED IN GATHERING ALL OF THIS INFORMATION.

$$
Quoting aquak9:
NorthernEyewall- you weren't kidding! I read the report you linked. Now how do 3 million broilers, roasters, grillers and breeders just disappear?


Feather dusters? Feather pillows? Feather rain? Chopped chicken livers? Mulch? Fertilizer?
Quoting aquak9:
You know what? I hope many of those chickens lived, I hope they learn to fly real good, and build nests in trees. They'll become feral, and be known as The Wild Chickens of the South.

All I wanted to know was WHERE'D THE CHICKENS GO?? It's not like losing a set of car keys!!!




Maybe someone should open a Crude Oil Blog,,it would give them something to do,,easily
Thank you, NorthernEyewall. See folks? there were people out there trying to catch the chickens, and take care of them.
You have to admit ---- the chicken rocket is funny.
Quoting aquak9:
Thank you, NorthernEyewall. See folks? there were people out there trying to catch the chickens, and take care of them.


All kidding aside Aqua it's interesting. Any news on cattle or horses? I watched a video yesterday and recall seeing 2 dead cattle lying side-by-side in a field.
Hi everyone,

Our local weather reporter for SS, Ken Kaye (who use to keep his blog here and gets his weather info from Dr Masters) put an article on today's paper that said Florida is due a Wet and Hot "rainy season" this year...
Above normal rainfall and high temps.

so all of you "water folks" in Florida who love the daily downpours and have webbed feet, hopefully you will get your wish this year!



Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

Our local weather reporter for SS, Ken Kaye (who use to keep his blog here and gets his weather info from Dr Masters) put an article on today's paper that said Florida is due a Wet and Hot "rainy season" this year...
Above normal rainfall and high temps.

so all of you "water folks" in Florida who love the daily downpours and have webbed feet, hopefully you will get your wish this year!



Just like 1995.
StAug- see the link on post 105, it's a pdf, takes a few minutes to load. Scroll down a few pages, it does list a few other animal loss numbers.

Gamma- my paws are all dried out- you KNOW I'd love nothing better than to splash in some puddles.
Area getting interesting especially in motion.
'95 wasn't too bad, well except for Opal. ok, nix on a repeat of '95.

New madrid just had a tiny case of the shivers.
From the Neshoba EF-5 (weathergeek5, comment #118):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


When I saw that "two feet of earth" comment last week, I thought for sure they'd upgrade--and now they have. At the beginning of last week, there had been two EF-5s in the U.S. since the May, 1999, OKC monster; we're now at five.

Also RGB in motion looks interesting one of these days I'll learn
Quoting Neapolitan:
From the Neshoba EF-5 (weathergeek5, comment #118):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


When I saw that "two feet of earth" comment last week, I thought for sure they'd upgrade--and now they have. At the beginning of last week, there had been two EF-5s in the U.S. since the May, 1999, OKC monster; we're now at five.



That is unbelievable... I can't even comprehend what that would be like to experience that kind of power...
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

Our local weather reporter for SS, Ken Kaye (who use to keep his blog here and gets his weather info from Dr Masters) put an article on today's paper that said Florida is due a Wet and Hot "rainy season" this year...
Above normal rainfall and high temps.

so all of you "water folks" in Florida who love the daily downpours and have webbed feet, hopefully you will get your wish this year!





Yeah I have a feeling this wet season will be much more impressive than last year, hopefully more like 2009 was!

Just in time for the end of my academic year! Only 3 more years of college left to go :) well maybe, I'll probably want to take even more school in weather by then.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I have a feeling this wet season will be much more impressive than last year, hopefully more like 2009 was!

Just in time for the end of my academic year! Only 3 more years of college left to go :) well maybe, I'll probably want to take even more school in weather by then.


Jed, just curious, are you taking alot of online courses?
Jed, from what I've seen we had an above normal "rainy" season last summer..and the drought map looked pretty green/blue from June - October...
then in October it got dry and stayed dry..

Seems like last summer it rained nearly every day, on my house... I know some folks like that daily rain to cool things down!

Aqua and Hydrus...maybe we will be wet this year but can do without the 'canes!



I know South Florida maybe the entire state but we were really in a drought in 2007 and 2008 until Faye came along Aug 2008 and turned the entire state from Red to Blue!

except for the Tampa area.. they were the only "red" area left after Faye left her mark.
Quoting aquak9:
NorthernEyewall- you weren't kidding! I read the report you linked. Now how do 3 million broilers, roasters, grillers and breeders just disappear?


The Chicken Rapture.
Went to Chick Fila to get a chicken sandwich as all the chicken comments made me hungry.
Hopefully the Euro is right in showing a very stormy pattern for the SE US including FL later next week as a cut off low developes near LA and pumps some serious moisture into FL and the eastern Gulf. Days 8 thru 10 look mighty wet.
THe GFS has this feature but near the Great Lakes as opposed to the C Gulf Coast. So we'll see! Euro has been spot on over the last year so hopefully it verifies.
I, too, approve of Classic Ike. Cheerleader Ike was a bit frightening.

Season™'s getting close, DJ. We need a new kitteh.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Went to Chick Fila to get a chicken sandwich as all the chicken comments made me hungry.


did they raise the prices? it's all supply and demand, y'know, kinda like oil.

or something like that...
Quoting aquak9:
I, too, approve of Classic Ike. Cheerleader Ike was a bit frightening.

Season™'s getting close, DJ. We need a new kitteh.


Ike's the man! Everybody was shaming him last year and IKE and he was right the whole time.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Jed, just curious, are you taking alot of online courses?


Yeah I have been taking several actually! Why do you wonder?
Quoting seflagamma:
Jed, from what I've seen we had an above normal "rainy" season last summer..and the drought map looked pretty green/blue from June - October...
then in October it got dry and stayed dry..

Seems like last summer it rained nearly every day, on my house... I know some folks like that daily rain to cool things down!

Aqua and Hydrus...maybe we will be wet this year but can do without the 'canes!





Well we had a very wet August but that was it. Central and Northern Florida had a lame 1 month wet season. And there was an extreme lack in strong thunderstorms. Or just thunderstorms in general. The air was always stable despite high moisture. Now that you mention it, South Florida was very wet but you can't say the same for here. Last year we had the lamest and shortest dry season Ive ever seen, accepet for a very wet 2 or 3 week period in August, but that doesn't count, that was just a wet pattern. Overall it was very dry.
Again its hard to project SFL rainfall that far out in time, and the CFS model isn't showing much of a trend one way or the other.But what i can tell you is based on past La Nina weakening to neutral summers, we could have some increase in southerly flow during parts of the rainy season, which could translate to wetter than normal. At least that's what the CFS and past years have shown.

Quoting hurricane23:
Again its hard to project SFL rainfall that far out in time, and the CFS model isn't showing much of a trend one way or the other.But what i can tell you is based on past La Nina weakening to neutral summers, we could have some increase in southerly flow during parts of the rainy season, which could translate to wetter than normal. At least that's what the CFS and past years have shown.



Hey there "killer," good to see you.
Quoting hurricane23:
Again its hard to project SFL rainfall that far out in time, and the CFS model isn't showing much of a trend one way or the other.But what i can tell you is based on past La Nina weakening to neutral summers, we could have some increase in southerly flow during parts of the rainy season, which could translate to wetter than normal. At least that's what the CFS and past years have shown.



Is the general consensus that due to the Neutral conditions and the current positon of the A/B High (This could change) that it would impose a greater risk of Tropical storm or hurricane landfalls across the entire Gulf coast and the East coast of Florida (And N and S Carolina)?

Quoting DestinJeff:
<----- look at the banding feature in the nw corner of the eye


Wow... Its undergoing a EWRC ( Eye Wall Replacement Cycle)... Expect Rapid Intensification soon... I Think we will see it become a monster storm with a 5 Mile Pinhole Eye!

Quoting DestinJeff:


headed west, no doubt.


No its going to be a FISH! A FISH i tell you!
Quoting DestinJeff:


headed west, no doubt.


Coming right for Florida , the models show it to be a CAT 5, WOW
Quoting hurricane23:
Again its hard to project SFL rainfall that far out in time, and the CFS model isn't showing much of a trend one way or the other.But what i can tell you is based on past La Nina weakening to neutral summers, we could have some increase in southerly flow during parts of the rainy season, which could translate to wetter than normal. At least that's what the CFS and past years have shown.



All I know is we need rain bad. Adrian, when is the last time you have seen weather like this all around the country, but no rain for us?
Quoting emcf30:


Coming right for Florida , the models show it to be a CAT 5, WOW


Is it in the Herbert Box????
Quoting aquak9:
NorthernEyewall- you weren't kidding! I read the report you linked. Now how do 3 million broilers, roasters, grillers and breeders just disappear?


Quoting sammywammybamy:


No its going to be a FISH! A FISH i tell you!


It's a damn chicken.
P'cola- that photo is unavailable.
from yesterday

Flooding Causes Outages to TDOT SmartWay Cameras in Memphis Area
Released on Wed, May 04, 2011 - 3:49 pm under Media Advisories Transportation
MEMPHIS, Tenn. – The Tennessee Department of Transportation wants to alert the public of significant outages to the TDOT SmartWay camera system in the Memphis area due to flooding along the Mississippi River. Approximately 30 cameras on Interstates 40 and 55 are off-line at this time, with outages possibly lasting as long as three weeks.

The Mississippi River flooding is currently threatening the main center that feeds power to the cameras on I-40 and I-55 from West Memphis, Arkansas to the Mississippi River Bridge in Memphis. The power center has been shut down in an effort to salvage transformers, and electronic hardware is being removed from cameras in the path of the flood.

A separate network communications center on I-40 near the Wolf River is also in danger of flooding, placing a number of other TDOT SmartWay cameras in jeopardy. TDOT personnel are monitoring water levels in this area three times per day and may be forced to disable more cameras along the I-40 corridor in the coming days.
Quoting aquak9:
P'cola- that photo is unavailable.


unavailable??? it's on my flickr

http://www.flickr.com/photos/8388935@N04/56919718 74/sizes/m/in/photostream/
"chickens left"?

too funny!!
Quoting weathergeek5:


Is it in the Herbert Box????
JFV warning.
LinkIt shows the jet but is it moving north? I really dont know to well...
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
JFV warning.


I said that because everyone was talking about the typical stuff everyone talks about during hurricane season. that is how I interpreted the conversation that was going on. I mainly hang out in blizzard 92's blog. I will just go back to lurking. I thought the reference to the Herbert box would be interpreted as a joke not a reference to JFV. Thank you very much sir. Next time be mindful of peoples attempt to say something humorous. When you observe this blog for 6 years you can guess what people are going to say.
The forecast from Houston is for strong nocturnal methane currents aloft forming a high ridge over SouthEast Texas. The upwelling methane jets tonight will intermix with the upper atmosphere, leading to a slight greenhouse warming effect during the day tomorrow from the Ozarks to the Eastern Seaboard.

Yes, it's that time of year again... Cinco De Mayo. Time for the annual SouthEast Texas Burrito Festival. Our apologies in advance to the rest of the nation.

I have noticed, in recent years, a strong correlation between our annual Burrito Festival and 3-weeks later the start of the Western Pacific Typhoon Season. You're all familiar with the proverbial "butterfly flapping it's wings..."? Well, from a meteorology standpoint, there might be a causal relationship here; In SouthEast Texas, tens of thousands of people flap their glutial cellulite... and 3-weeks later in Asia a typhoon wind blows.

Perhaps in the Atlantic, a hurricane is nature's way of flushing heat out of the tropics. In Asia, the first typhoon of the season may be nature's way of flushing something else out of the tropics. :>)
now now my little ones play nic dont yet me say you been reported
Quoting weathergeek5:


I said that because everyone was talking about the typical stuff everyone talks about during hurricane season. that is how I interpreted the conversation that was going on. I mainly hang out in blizzard 92's blog. I will just go back to lurking. I thought the reference to the Herbert box would be interpreted as a joke not a reference to JFV. Thank you very much sir. Next time be mindful of peoples attempt to say something humorous. When you observe this blog for 6 years you can guess what people are going to say.


You must not have seen the picture yesterday. The one with the shower curtain Hebert Boxes. I saw the comment as a joke. Maybe I'm wrong.
Quoting PcolaDan:


You must not have seen the picture yesterday. The one with the shower curtain Hebert Boxes. I saw the comment as a joke. Maybe I'm wrong.


I was in class yesterday evening after work taking a final exam for school. I remember someone bringing up the term Herbert Boxes every single year. That is why I brought that up.
Quoting aquak9:


It's a damn chicken.


I think I know where the chickens went. :)
Minor earthquake today in New Madrid County, Missouri.


Flooding situation:
An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, and 1935, as well as the major hurricanes Donna and Betsy, all of which came through a Hebert Box. Collectively these storms killed more than 2,000 people in Florida. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd and Gert in 1999, which both were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute
WIKI FTW
Quoting DestinJeff:


no joke, real deal:


they have been protecting FL since 2006 from hurricane landfalls.


LOL

I fear their protection might not work this year.
Quoting PcolaDan:


You must not have seen the picture yesterday. The one with the shower curtain Hebert Boxes. I saw the comment as a joke. Maybe I'm wrong.
relieved that someone got it
it's all good ya'll.

Maybe some of our younger folks get intimidated by the older, more knowledgable folks- and they don't see the humor for what it is.

Love the ShowerCurtain Deployment System.
i always wundered why this pls
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
relieved that someone got it


That's me, sharp as a butter knife. :)
hmmmm


i did not say commet 189
thats weird
Quoting Tazmanian:
hmmmm


i did not say commet 189

not sure
Quoting Tazmanian:

not sure




holy we shit am been hack
oh Admins
oh my god i goten to calm down
Taz- have you used a different computer? Did you maybe leave yourself sign on to a different computer?
holy we
Quoting aquak9:
Taz- have you used a different computer? Did you maybe leave yourself sign on to a different computer?




am confuse
no, Taz, WU has not been hacked. Someone else is using your name.

It's only you, not anyone else.

What other computers have you used?
Quoting Tazmanian:




am confuse




the Taz thats post thats not me will go go a way
Quoting aquak9:
no, Taz, WU has not been hacked. Someone else is using your name.

It's only you, not anyone else.

What other computers have you used?



kk note sur
Removing all comments that are not mine. PW has been changed. Sorry about this not sure what in the world happened.
Quoting WxTracker15:


man yo wats hapenin'



hacker
I'm usually just a lurker and most of you seem like real nice people but sometimes it gets a little weird. I don't think its ok to use that kind of language on blogs even in fun. I like a good joke and some of you people are really funny, but cursing just doesn't get it.
WxTracker15 is not the tyler young you no is he came here thats a hacker uesing his name it is not the real tyler young
There's 2 Taz's on the blog. LOL! This should be a fun night.
woody- we do not normally cuss. Someone else is using Taz's name right now. Taz does not cuss.
Quoting aquak9:
woody- we do not normally cuss. Someone else is using Taz's name right now. Taz does not cuss.


Never does. TROLL ALERT level has been raised. Season is near.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Never does. TROLL ALERT level has been raised. Season is near.


Yep. It will happen again, sometime......
Rasta- I know taz well enough to know, that someone else is using his name right now, and trying to type like him.

someone got into his account.
Quoting aquak9:
Rasta- I know taz well enough to know, that someone else is using his name right now, and trying to type like him.

someone got into his account.


I love Taz's post an it's obvious that's not him. how did they do that I wonder because you can't use the same handle?
Quoting caneswatch:


Yep. It will happen again, sometime......


Hey buddy any rain down there today?
Quoting aquak9:
woody- we do not normally cuss. Someone else is using Taz's name right now. Taz does not cuss.


I know i been lurking for years and know most of you all. Just had the nerve to join last week. I didn't mean anything about the bad language, jsut surprised is all.
look like it stoped
woody- it's ok, you just showed up at a bad time. If you have been lurking for a while, you know we try real hard to keep this place family-friendly.

Well, most of the time.

Rasta- I think someone snagged taz's password. But taz is right- maybe it stopped.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Hey buddy any rain down there today?


Yes we did as a matter of fact. We got a half-inch here. How about you guys up there>?
I know, I drop by for the weather updates and always mangage to get a good smile lots of times. I like the way you all tease each other like family. You all put a smile on my face more than once.
Quoting caneswatch:


Yes we did as a matter of fact. We got a half-inch here. How about you guys up there>?


Are you on the east coast or west
Quoting WoodyFL:


Are you on the east coast or west


East coast, in PBC.
evening all
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening all


Evening Keeper.
Quoting caneswatch:


Yes we did as a matter of fact. We got a half-inch here. How about you guys up there>?


Nothing here today but I think we will get a nice rain tomorrow as I expect showers and thunderstorms to develope near Tampa come about daybreak and slide across C FL during the day tomorrow and deliver some heavy rain to many.
Quoting caneswatch:


East coast, in PBC.


me too in Las Olas. We didnt get much rain. It is very dry here. I guess we shouldnt complain with all that flooding in the Mississippi.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Nothing here today but I think we will get a nice rain tomorrow as I expect showers and thunderstorms to develope near Tampa come about daybreak and slide across C FL during the day tomorrow and deliver some heavy rain to many.


Local met says the same thing for here, rain should start around 10am-12pm and then slowly work its way north. So much for washing the car tomorrow if the forecast holds up LOL
Evening all.

Quoting aquak9:
I'm still wondering where all those chickens went.
U not the only one... lol

Quoting chrisale:
Just want to let my American friends know that there is also a 150yr flood happening right now south of Montreal on the Richelieu river.

The Canadian Army has been sent in to help residents.

"At least 3,000 homes and businesses have been flooded in the Richelieu Valley, and 1,000 people had left their homes by Thursday morning in the worst flooding in the region in 150 years."


There was also serious flooding in Manitoba on the Red River but not record levels.
Wow... I expected to hear the Red River news, since that's been flooding in the US, but the Richelieu? I don't know why I think of that as an "unfloodable" river...

Quoting eddy12:
watching the futures dropping very quickly below 99 now more than 10% today on changes in margins and slightly stronger dollar
Slightly stronger dollar may actually have something to do with bin Laden's demise... greater investor confidence?

Re: 118 The Neshoba-Nuxobee EF-5 tornado.... I read that preliminary report this past weekend, and when I read the part about the mobile home being carried several yards without bouncing, then ripped to pieces, I had a feeling this would get upgraded...


Good Evening all...
A day of rain here today. 1.5" in my guage.
First time in 22 years living in this house that the tanks are full, in May...
Nice!
Big amount of WV in the Car/Atl...




Quoting sunlinepr:
Big amount of WV in the Car/Atl...



Just missing you, too!
Quoting WoodyFL:


me too in Las Olas. We didnt get much rain. It is very dry here. I guess we shouldnt complain with all that flooding in the Mississippi.


Yeah, I feel bad for all of them.

A hotter-than-average summer is expected, and above-normal rainfall is expected to start in August. Sounds weird that it starts in August because that's usually when we have to keep all eyes out east in the Atlantic.
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all...
A day of rain here today. 1.5" in my guage.
First time in 22 years living in this house that the tanks are full, in May...
Nice!


Evening Pott.
man happy thats overe with
235. skook
Quoting Tazmanian:
man happy thats overe with



how do we know which is the real one...
Quoting caneswatch:


Evening Pott.

Greetings.
We are forecast to have a very wet rainy season here too.
And after this very rainy dry season, that should cause some problems if it pans out.
An awful lot of WV for this time of year, and very little SAL dust.
Quoting skook:



how do we know which is the real one...

only ONE person says "overe".
Quoting pottery:

Just missing you, too!

You seem to have a lot of rain, that's good...
Here it's been dry today... Although rain is getting closer

239. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all...
A day of rain here today. 1.5" in my guage.
First time in 22 years living in this house that the tanks are full, in May...
Nice!

Hi pottery,this weather is odd,so much rain and the itcz is so far away.
1.3 inches today as well
7.9 inches last month
3.3 inches since May 1st
amazing...
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all...
A day of rain here today. 1.5" in my guage.
First time in 22 years living in this house that the tanks are full, in May...
Nice!
Hi, pott... may I ask, what kind of tanks do u have on the house?
Quoting skook:



how do we know which is the real one...





you been reported not realy but you can tell thats me be come i like saying things like that
Taz, be careful with your account because it seems like the crazies are warming up early this year....

:o(
Quoting DDR:

Hi pottery,this weather is odd,so much rain and the itcz is so far away.
1.3 inches today as well
7.9 inches last month
3.3 inches since May 1st
amazing...

I was in Brasso Seco today.
Heavy cloud and constant rain all over the Mountains. Thought it was August.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Taz, be careful with your account because it seems like the crazies are warming up early this year....

:o(



i mean yep
Quoting pottery:

Greetings.
We are forecast to have a very wet rainy season here too.
And after this very rainy dry season, that should cause some problems if it pans out.
An awful lot of WV for this time of year, and very little SAL dust.


Yeah, that's a bad sign Pott. Keepin' a watchful eye in the Atlantic this year.
I'm out, ya'll... too beat to sit up much longer tonight...

I did want to compliment the good Doc on an excellent review of the impacts of the last 2 weeks of stormy wx on the central and SE US. It's been a pretty historic serious of storms, which, as the blog entry implies, will continue to impact these areas for some time to come...

'Nite!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Taz, be careful with your account because it seems like the crazies are warming up early this year....

:o(


I just read the blog entries, seems like they are hacking...
One good advice is to change passwords every 3 months, in all your accounts..
Use a combination of lower case, caps and numbers...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hi, pott... may I ask, what kind of tanks do u have on the house?

Two 6000 gal and one 4000 gal concrete cisterns, and 4 X 1000 gal plastic ones.
The concrete ones collect the water from the house roof, and the plastic ones collect from a cocoa-house.

I average 7.5 feet of rainfall. So based on my total roof cover, I can harvest about 80,000 gals per year.
If I did not live on a ridge, I would surely have some big ponds.
249. DDR
Quoting pottery:

I was in Brasso Seco today.
Heavy cloud and constant rain all over the Mountains. Thought it was August.

Cool...
I love Brasso,a scenic drive/place to visit.
Quoting sunlinepr:


I just read the blog entries, seems like they are hacking...
One good advice is to change passwords every 3 months, in all your accounts..
Use a combination of lower case, caps and numbers...




i for get a lot what they are
Quoting pottery:

Two 6000 gal and one 4000 gal concrete cisterns, and 4 X 1000 gal plastic ones.
The concrete ones collect the water from the house roof, and the plastic ones collect from a cocoa-house.

I average 7.5 feet of rainfall. So based on my total roof cover, I can harvest about 80,000 gals per year.
If I did not live on a ridge, I would surely have some big ponds.


Do you treat that water? How much will that last with normal use?
252. DDR
I heard they have some huge crayfish up there,haven't tried catching crayfish this year because off all this rain.
Pot, that's not bad at all. I got VERY familiar with rainwater cisterns when I used to visit my grandparents in Long Island as a child. There was a communal tank the size of a small house built into the hill beside the church [it drained the church roof], and my grandparents had their own smaller cistern attached to their house. Most of the time we were expected to "tote water" from the church cistern to the house on a daily basis in 5-gallon iron buckets. These days my granny is all sophisticated, and, having added a second tank to the house, now has internal running water... her house is 5-15 miles north of the Tropic of Cancer...
Quoting DDR:

Cool...
I love Brasso,a scenic drive/place to visit.

Been spending a lot of time up there, renovating the Brasso Mountain Estate (turn right after the Church and go up the hill to the top past Paria Springs).
We have it set up to accomodate 10 people for weekends etc. Real nice!
Quoting Tazmanian:




i for get a lot what they are


Well, then use a long word that you can remember, like

your wife's, son, daughter, mother.... personal last names all blended together...

or something similar that you are familiar with, and can remember...
256. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Been spending a lot of time up there, renovating the Brasso Mountain Estate (turn right after the Church and go up the hill to the top past Paria Springs).
We have it set up to accomodate 10 people for weekends etc. Real nice!

Nice!
I wish i could live up there
ttyl,gn all.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Do you treat that water? How much will that last with normal use?

We keep a 400 gal plastic tank, in the shade, for drinking only (ice too).
For everything else, we use it straight from the tanks, including cooking.
From time to time I throw in some chlorine bleach. But when I do, the wife complains....
If we have a long dry spell, I cover the top of the cisterns/tanks for the first couple of hours of rain, to make sure that most of the bird-droppings and stuff dont get into the tanks.
We rotate the usage and clean them out every couple of years, and I have a pretty complex manifold system so I can move water from any tank to any tank.
PW word has been updated
Quoting pottery:

Been spending a lot of time up there, renovating the Brasso Mountain Estate (turn right after the Church and go up the hill to the top past Paria Springs).
We have it set up to accomodate 10 people for weekends etc. Real nice!


How much is the weekend stay there for 4 people? Do you have webpage or brochures?
(if you don't want to post here, you can email me, thanks)
Quoting sunlinepr:


How much is the weekend stay there for 4 people? Do you have webpage or brochures?
(if you don't want to post here, you can email me, thanks)

wu-mail to you coming up...
Quoting Tazmanian:
PW word has been updated

Change it every 3 months... I'm very cautelous with the internet. I don't trust the security of facebook, twitter, banks etc.
A lot of identity scams around. Imagine what a hacker can do to us, when the White House webpage, that has a lot of security behind, has been attacked by Chinese hackers twice...
Quoting pottery:

wu-mail to you coming up...


Thanks pottery...
Quoting sunlinepr:

Change it every 3 months... I'm very cautelous with the internet. I don't trust the security of facebook, twitter, banks etc.
A lot of identity scams around. Imagine what a hacker can do to us, when the White House webpage, that has a lot of security behind, has been attacked by Chinese hackers twice...



ok
Seems like tomorow is going to be a rainy day....

Good nite all...
Off-top:this F1 racing weekend is going to be one of the most interesting in last years! Drivers will race at Istambul Park,a racing venue 40 miles east of the city with 'legendary' turn nr.8,a four-apex left turn.This time weather pattern over circuit would be unusual,as on Turkey.In previous events(since first race on IstP in 2005 to last race in 2010) there was 0% chance of rain(maybe excluding 2010's race),but this time the rain is predicted for Friday's practice sessions and Sunday's race,with no rain on Sunday.It means only hour for qualifing prepardment and rainy,unpredictable race! Note that drivers wasn't ever racing in the rain on IstP
266. JRRP

The big question: Will they or won't they open the Morganza Spillway above Baton Rouge? The Bonnet Carre Spillway opens Monday.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
====================================

At 10:00 AM PhST, the Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 120 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar 11.0°N, 127.0°E.

This disturbance is expected to bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming widespread rains over the Bicol Region and Visayas which may trigger flash floods and landslides.
I did not want to post this on the main blog so I waited till someone else put it up.
No takers?
Here it is:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40885541/ns/us_news-l ife/t/end-days-may-believers-enter-final-stretch/
Purty well puts an end to the debate about AGW.
I feel lucky though - I ain't likely to be raptured up initially so it looks like I've got till sometime in October to get my act together
"...the end of the world will begin on May 21, 2011...concluding with the end of time...that will happen in October." So why are they "...organizing traveling columns of RVs carrying the message from city to city...between now and the second week of January..."?

I mean things are gonna really suck ifn ya still need RVs to get around after the end of time.
Whatcha gonna do, steal gas for 'em? It ain't as if folks are gonna be around to sell it to ya.

Quoting ycd0108:
I did not want to post this on the main blog so I waited till someone else put it up.
No takers?
Here it is:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40885541/ns/us_news-l ife/t/end-days-may-believers-enter-final-stretch/
Purty well puts an end to the debate about AGW.
I feel lucky though - I ain't likely to be raptured up initially so it looks like I've got till sometime in October to get my act together
"“But concerning that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father only." - Matthew 24:36 - English Standard Version (ESV)

Seriously, people focus entirely too much on eschatology. It isn't just restricted to Christians, either.

It is highly likely that this particular eschatological prophecy, like all previous ones, will end up being incorrect in the end.
TD3 in wpac has formed!
I've been watching arctic sea ice for a few years and I thought I'd share this before I leave for the evening

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES /arctic.seaice.color.000.png

That bright area showing 70% coverage near the north pole is pretty rare this time of year. In fact I don't think I've see it like that in May.
Here's some very close footage of last week's Albany, NZ, EF-2 tornado. It illustrates in a dramatic way why a car is not a safe place to be when a twister is approaching. (NOTE: turn down your sound; no cursing, but a few loud exclamations.)



(And, yes, it's spinning clockwise, but that's cyclonic down there, not anti-cyclonic.)
275. P451
5 Days of SAL: I'm not sure if anyone has noticed but the concentration of SAL appears to be a whole lot lower than it was this time last year and especially the previous year. We had a lot of systems choke on the SAL that may have posed a problem. Will this year be different or is low SAL in early May inconsequential? If it remains low then you start watching shear and moisture levels. SSTs are always there folks I can't say it enough they aren't a top factor for development they are a supplementary factor that aides intensification.



278. P451
Quoting sunlinepr:
Big amount of WV in the Car/Atl...



Low SAL as well. Shear lessening. Three biggest factors starting to come into line. Shear has been higher than usual thus far....SAL much lower...WV pretty high. These factors were not in play the previous two years they were very inhibiting. Next to watch for me would be whether or not developing waves are on their own or do they all have that nuisance partner upper level low to their WNW/NW that hindered the development of so many systems the last two seasons?

While this season may be tabbed to not be a "hyper" active year there sure are some early signs that whatever does form might just have a red carpet laid out for it.

Kinda worried...
We dont look to Africa till mid July as the tracks and development occur much closer in June-July..

The Western Caribbean and Gom are the early breeding grounds.

280. P451
Quoting Patrap:
We dont look to Africa till mid July as the tracks and development occur much closer in June-July..

The Western Caribbean and Gom are the early breeding grounds.



If you were posting this to me I know this. We all know this lol. But you do still look at basin wide trends to try to get an idea as to what you are going to be facing. Right?

And thus far aside from shear being higher than normal all the other factors are very positive for development. High moisture. Low SAL. And lastly properly heated waters - warmer than normal closer to home. If shear gets in line and those other three factors remain positive? Look out. Also not liking the way the high had set up for a spell there. Talk about a Cape Verde doomsday scenario....

Speaking of Africa and "August at the earliest and September at the latest for development" you do remember that in March we had a system that was about a hair short of being a named tropical storm correct? (I wish I saved those images they were extremely impressive). "90L". I still think it was a TS. Had everything necessary to be declared. Warm core. Banding. Closed circulation. Vertically stacked. Gale force winds. Convection. But well, ya know... if it doesn't meet the concrete seasonal dates it didn't exist! But I digress, tell that to the late season October-December East Atlantic storms we've been watching form time and again.



281. P451
East Pacific primed and ready for it's "opening season date". More worrisome is the moisture fetch being rapidly drawn up towards the TX/OK region from here.

EPAC WV, 6 hours, ending 1015AM ET:




Day 3 SPC Outlook:

Quoting P451:
East Pacific primed and ready for it's "opening season date". More worrisome is the moisture fetch being rapidly drawn up towards the TX/OK region from here.

EPAC WV, 6 hours, ending 1015AM ET:




Day 3 SPC Outlook:


The moisture is welcome here in SE TX... I just know it won't break the cap.
284. beell
Quoting jeffs713:

The moisture is welcome here in SE TX... I just know it won't break the cap.


Don't see much to worry about on moisture. Most of Texas will be under a strong mid-level ridge all next week.

Hot n' Dry...
Link
Hurricane ike !!!!!!!!!!! just waiting for the season.
Quoting beell:


Don't see much to worry about on moisture. Most of Texas will be under a strong mid-level ridge all next week.

Hot n' Dry...


Yeah wasn't sure what P451 was looking at as the moisture keeps getting surpressed to the south over Mexico. Even the severe potential over W TX only has marginal moisture at best to work with. The storms that do pop will have a hail and wind potential not tornadoes. A bigger threat for severe wx will come into play next week. Anyways it's looking promising for rain here in C FL this afternoon as we already have thunderstorms coming ashore on the west coast of FL.
good morning friends and fiends worldwide.

Would sure like to see some of that EPAC moisture roll on up into TX.

surprisingly overcast here in NE Fla, like a single squished gnat on the computer screen.

Yeah, where is Ike?
289. beell
Quoting RastaSteve:


Yeah wasn't sure what P451 was looking at as the moisture keeps getting surpressed to the south over Mexico. Even the severe potential over W TX only has marginal moisture at best to work with. The storms that do pop will have a hail and wind potential not tornadoes. A bigger threat for severe wx will come into play next week. Anyways it's looking promising for rain here in C FL this afternoon as we already have thunderstorms coming ashore on the west coast of FL.


We should see the dryline try to get active each day this week. Big temp/dewpoint spreads may limit the tornado threat.

Best chance comes Thursday or more likely, Friday over the central plains as the trough finally leaves the Rockies and swings out over KS, NE, MO as a guess. Too far out in time to get too excited.
Link

tropical storm tomas what i notice where ever the last storm of the season forms ............lol this is opinion the season tends to take this track lol however look at the force of it it reminded me a lil bit of hurricane ivan in 2004 in grenada that is
Quoting aquak9:
good morning friends and fiends worldwide.

Would sure like to see some of that EPAC moisture roll on up into TX.

surprisingly overcast here in NE Fla, like a single squished gnat on the computer screen.

Yeah, where is Ike?


Some heavy rain heading right into JAX. You should get wet soon.
Just received my FEMA flood insurance renewal in the mail. I currently pay $313 a year, or I can pay $343 this year.

$313 covers $150,000 building $60,000 contents
$343 covers $200,000 building $80,000 contents

Ticks me off, but for $30 more it looks to be worth it.

FYI, I'm outside of floodplain too
Quoting RastaSteve:


Some heavy rain heading right into JAX. You should get wet soon.


hi Rasta...doubt it's gonna be heavy. BUT, the cat was laying around with it's paws tucked under, so I shouldn't be so surprised at the chance of precip.

sadly tho, today will be followed by no rain.
Quoting ktymisty:
I've been watching arctic sea ice for a few years and I thought I'd share this before I leave for the evening

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES /arctic.seaice.color.000.png

That bright area showing 70% coverage near the north pole is pretty rare this time of year. In fact I don't think I've see it like that in May.


Well, considering the mass melts we've had the previous years, a lot of the ice has been greatly reduced in thickness and/or is not multi-year ice. It doesn't take a lot to melt it or move it.

There's a good chance that this year may break the 2007 low. We'll have to see what the weather does.
Quoting thebrownpelican:
The big question: Will they or won't they open the Morganza Spillway above Baton Rouge? The Bonnet Carre Spillway opens Monday.


Waiting with baited breath.

Appreciate updates anyone can provide on here - you guys are an awesome source of info and quick on the trigger.
With La Niña lingering in the atmosphere..it's down right scary to have the sea ice like that.
Now you guys have gone an done it. The one day a year I play gulf is for a memorial fund raiser for a coach. This year it is on May 21. Oh well I hope I can get in my 18 before all hell breaks loose. Having visions of the minister in the original caddy shack, just my luck.
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Waiting with baited breath.

Appreciate updates anyone can provide on here - you guys are an awesome source of info and quick on the trigger.


You should explore other blogs on this site, besides just DocMasters.

This blog Link is an excellent resource for following what's going on. Plenty of good discussion and info as it becomes available.
Quoting KoritheMan:

It is highly likely that this particular eschatological prophecy, like all previous ones, will end up being incorrect in the end.


Another Great Disappointment in the making, I expect.
300. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:


hi Rasta...doubt it's gonna be heavy. BUT, the cat was laying around with it's paws tucked under, so I shouldn't be so surprised at the chance of precip.

sadly tho, today will be followed by no rain.


50% of rain today just turned to 100% for me, it just downpoured here off 295. The storms strengthened a little before rolling in. A few claps of thunder. Looks like it will clear out and it be a nice weekend.
ANYONE HAS A BLOG UPDATE II CAN READ
ABOUT HURRICANE SEASON? RECENT ONE HOW ABOUT TODAY OR YESTERDAY?////
301. First, caps = bad. stop shouting.

Secondly, hurricane season is still slightly less than a month out... many ppl aren't putting out updates daily, since not much is changing, and we have historic floods happening on the Mississippi River atm.
Vermont flooded in 1927 too..

Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin has declared a state of emergency to help respond to flooding across the state. The declaration will allow the state to use the National Guard to help respond to record high floodwaters. Areas around Lake Champlain are especially hard hit by the spring flooding fed by near record snow and heavy spring rains. Shumlin says conditions have worsened to the point where the state needs equipment and personnel from the Nation Guard. He says roads that have been under water for days are less stable and more hazardous. Vermont Emergency Management says reaching Grand Isle County, most of which is made up of islands in Lake Champlain, could become more difficult due to high water.
304. MTWX
Quoting pottery:

We keep a 400 gal plastic tank, in the shade, for drinking only (ice too).
For everything else, we use it straight from the tanks, including cooking.
From time to time I throw in some chlorine bleach. But when I do, the wife complains....
If we have a long dry spell, I cover the top of the cisterns/tanks for the first couple of hours of rain, to make sure that most of the bird-droppings and stuff dont get into the tanks.
We rotate the usage and clean them out every couple of years, and I have a pretty complex manifold system so I can move water from any tank to any tank.

Nice!! I need to set something like that up on my place!
Quoting jeffs713:
301. First, caps = bad. stop shouting.

Secondly, hurricane season is still slightly less than a month out... many ppl aren't putting out updates daily, since not much is changing, and we have historic floods happening on the Mississippi River atm.

Yes, admin.
Complete Update





NEW ORLEANS /17/ 15.0 +0.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 19.5 5/24A A.5/11A
/ /LEVEES PROTECT CITY OF NEW ORLEANS TO 20 FT STAGE.

Only 6" below the levee system protection height in New Orleans. That is cutting it kinda close. Hope the crest heights numbers don't go higher like they have in other places.
Quoting jeffs713:
301. First, caps = bad. stop shouting.

Secondly, hurricane season is still slightly less than a month out... many ppl aren't putting out updates daily, since not much is changing, and we have historic floods happening on the Mississippi River atm.

i am aware lol
it is just that with the mjo taking an upward motion soon before june i am interested to hear wat will take place yh and i notice that another round off sevre weather is on schedule to occur
Link

must watch!!
310. Jax82
Quoting caribbeantracker01:

i am aware lol
it is just that with the mjo taking an upward motion soon before june i am interested to hear wat will take place yh and i notice that another round off sevre weather is on schedule to occur


gotcha.

While MJO is coming to our area, I don't think its been terribly coherent lately, meaning its not going to have a huge impact. Also, the ITCZ is a bit far south for anything popping, and fronts haven't been getting stalled out in the GOM or just off the coast, which is a big point of genesis for early-season storms. We could get a monsoon-type system going, but those take a few days to get a pulse, so we would have plenty of warning.
Eastern Caribbean looks interesting in a week or so...
314. JRRP
Quoting hydrus:
Eastern Caribbean looks interesting in a week or so...
Gfs showing same thing
Going back up, damn it

WTI Crude Oil
$101.31
And is it ever gonna frickin rain in TX?
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
This is going to be an interesting year for the Caribbean. Especially late July, all of August, and the first half of September.jmo
Quoting RitaEvac:
And is it ever gonna frickin rain in TX?
Your rain is coming R.E...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Going back up, damn it

WTI Crude Oil
$101.31
The price of gas is goin to kill me...Again.
Hydrus I'm bone dry on the coast!
I've had it, I'm praying for a tropical storm to rain for days over us. It'll just have to flood, it's outta control.
It will disappear -evaporate- or go around where we are, it is just a teaser.
Quoting hydrus:
Your rain is coming R.E...

325. beell
Quoting emcf30:
NEW ORLEANS /17/ 15.0 +0.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 19.5 5/24A A.5/11A
/ /LEVEES PROTECT CITY OF NEW ORLEANS TO 20 FT STAGE.

Only 6" below the levee system protection height in New Orleans. That is cutting it kinda close. Hope the crest heights numbers don't go higher like they have in other places.


If it comes to that, opening the Morganza Spillway will keep the crest at New Orleans at/below 17'. At the expense of more than just a few folks living near the southern end.

Similiar to opening the New Madrid Floodway, we will offer up another compromise to Old Man River.



Weather is looking questionable for the Atlas Launch. Window opens at 6:14pmGMT.
327. Jax82
in case you didnt know....NEW BLOG
ESPI is now -1.30..nearly guaranteeing we'll see some El Niño conditions develop, maybe as early as sometime in June. No confidence if it would last long enough to be an official El Niño event at this point. With the atmospheric lag the season would be feeling more neutral conditions, like 2004. Though expecting the El Niño to be stronger so the tail end of the season would have more fish storms.