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April Keeps the Warm, Wet U.S. Trend Going for 2016

By: Bob Henson 6:58 PM GMT on May 11, 2016

Although the warmth was notched down a bit from the year’s first quarter, April was still much milder and moister than average, according to the monthly U.S. climate roundup released on Wednesday by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The monthly average for the contiguous 48 states came in at 53.2°F, which is 2.2°F above the 20th-century average and the 18th warmest among the 122 Aprils since records began in 1895. Outside of New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, every state came in above its long-term average (see Figure 1), and it was a top-five warmest April for Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. The only place that saw record statewide warmth in April was Alaska, which merits a separate discussion (see below).


Figure 1. Statewide rankings for average temperature during April 2016, as compared to each April since 1895. Darker shades of orange indicate higher rankings for warmth, with 1 denoting the coldest month on record and 122 the warmest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 2. Statewide rankings for average precipitation during April 2016, as compared to each April since 1895. Darker shades of green indicate higher rankings for moisture, with 1 denoting the driest month on record and 122 the wettest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


There were plenty of April showers this year, especially across the Great Basin and Great Plains. The month came in as the 21st wettest on record for the 48 contiguous states, with a 48-state reading of 2.95” (0.43” above the 20th-century average). It was a top-ten wettest April for the entire Plains corridor from Texas to North Dakota (Figure 2). The apex of last month’s precipitation was the phenomenally heavy rain and severe flash flooding in Houston on April 18. More than than a foot of rain fell in northwest parts of the Houston area, and the city officially saw its second wettest day on record (9.92”, topped only by 10.34” during Houston’s “first” Tropical Storm Allison in 1989). Across the southwest U.S., where moisture was scant earlier this year despite the strong El Niño, generous precipitation finally arrived.

Daily record highs are far outpacing record lows this year
It’s no longer quite the warmest year on record for the United States thus far (although the planet is still demolishing year-to-date records--stay tuned for our global roundup next week). The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. (January-April 2016) now ranks second behind only 2012. The tally of daily record highs and lows across the nation reinforces this warm picture: as of Wednesday morning, the year-to-date tallies on NOAA’s Daily Weather Records site show a total of 10,328 record daily highs and just 1286 record lows, a ratio of just over 8:1. Last year’s ratio ended up close to 3:1, after two oddly chill years in which the nation saw more daily record lows than highs (no such years had occurred since 1993).

By this date in 2012, the contiguous states had already seen thousands more record highs than in 2016, thanks to the Great Warm Wave of March 2012. However, 2016 has by far the lowest number of daily record lows to date of any year in the century-plus database--a reflection of this winter’s moist, mild El Niño conditions on top of long-term warming.


Figure 3. A picture of Alaska’s warmth in the first 110 days of 2016 as projected in the 6-10 day NOAA outlook for each day (advancing from left to right in each row and then from top row to bottom row). Orange and red colors denote above-average readings and blue below average. Nearly every day ended up with above-average readings throughout all or most of the state. Only one day--February 19--saw below-average readings the state as a whole. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider.


Crazy Alaskan warmth
The nation’s 49th state is setting the pace this year for temperature extremity. Alaska’s average for April of 33.3°F beat the previous record of 32.9°F (1940) and was a full 10°F above the 1925-2000 average, a huge margin for a state so large. For the year to date through April, Alaska’s 21.7°F came in almost 2°F above its previous record (18.9°F, 1981) and 11.4°F above the state’s long-term average. The consistency of this year’s warmth has been nothing short of amazing, with most Alaskan towns and cities recording only a handful of days below average thus far.


Figure 4. January through April 2016 is running far milder than all other years in the weather history of King Salmon, Alaska. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider.


Figure 5. Based on data through early May drawn from 25 locations across Alaska, this year’s consistent mildness has put 2016 ahead of all other years since 1955. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider.

Melting, melting
Rivers across Alaska are feeling the heat, with some showing record-early ice melt. “This is an under-appreciated issue, as most of Alaska is off the road network and frozen rivers are the most efficient method of travel,” noted meteorologist Brian Brettschneider in an email. At the town of Circle in east central Alaska, the Yukon River began flowing freely on April 29, the earliest ice break-up date on record and well in advance of the average date (since 1980) of May 10.

The break-up of the Tanana River at the town of Nenana provided a major windfall for 28 participants this year in the annual Nenana Ice Classic. Each year a jackpot is split among the hundreds of thousands of guesses as to which day the Tanana will experience its spring break-up at downtown Nenana. This year’s $330,330 winnings were divided evenly among the 28 entrants who correctly pegged the date as April 24. It was the seventh earliest breakup in the 99-year history of the contest, which began when a group of railroad engineers pooled $800 (in 1917 dollars). The average break-up date is now about a week earlier than it was in the early 1900s, as shown in this climate.gov feature.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. A tripod sits atop the Tanana River during the 2008 Nenana Ice Classic. When the river begins flowing, it moves the tripod and triggers a clock to stop, serving as the official marker of the ice break-up. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Frank K.


Figure 7. As of May 10, 2016, only a few rivers across far northern Alaska remained ice-choked. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center.

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

No! My question won't get answer. :(
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Thanks Mr. Henson and particularly for the stats on Alaska. The State is almost a peninsula of sorts surrounded by water on two sides (the North Pacific and Arctic Ocean-Bering Sea) and it is documented as one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth (with the Northernmost section within the Arctic Circle). Just wondering (I do not know the answer) to what degree warmer SST's may impact the melt issues with the Glaciers (on the coast) and warmer air temps impacting Permafrost melt further inland and the interrelation (feedback) between the two. And, to what degree is the overall warming trend more of a function of the recent changes to jet stream patterns which allow more warm air to flow into the region on a more regular basis.

At the risk of being pedantic, Alaska became a state on Jan 3 1959, with Hawaii following on Aug 21 of that year, so it's the 49th state, not the 50th. Ironic that this should be picked up by a Brit!
And here is a nice link from the EPA on warming issues in Alaska with some detail:

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts/alaska .html


Over the past 60 years, the average temperature across Alaska has increased by approximately 3°F.[3] This increase is more than twice the warming seen in the rest of the United States. Warming in the winter has increased by an average of 6°F [3]and has led to changes in ecosystems, such as earlier breakup of river ice in the spring. As the climate continues to warm, average annual temperatures in Alaska are projected to increase an additional 2 to 4°F by the middle of this century.[3]Precipitation in Alaska is projected to increase during all seasons by the end of this century. Despite increased precipitation, the state is likely to become drier due to greater evaporation caused by warming temperatures and longer growing seasons.[3]
Quoting 4. yonzabam:

At the risk of being pedantic, Alaska became a state on Jan 3 1959, with Hawaii following on Aug 21 of that year, so it's the 49th state, not the 50th. Ironic that this should be picked up by a Brit!


Fixed! That is the most delicious type of irony. Thanks for the catch, yonzabam.
funny........what made you think to check?
Quoting 4. yonzabam:

At the risk of being pedantic, Alaska became a state on Jan 3 1959, with Hawaii following on Aug 21 of that year, so it's the 49th state, not the 50th. Ironic that this should be picked up by a Brit!
And for those inquiring minds...
Quoting 7. 19N81W:

funny........what made you think to check?



I knew the US bought Alaska from Russia in the 19th century, so thought it must have been a state for longer than Hawaii. Turns out I was right, but for the wrong reason, though!
On a related note, here are the current global sst anomalies:
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly - Current



Thanks for the update.

Alaska Climate Research Center, "Temperature Changes in Alaska."
Also, according to their data, mean seasonal and annual temperature in winter for Alaska is, in average, about 6 F higher than around the year 1950. Winter is the season when the biggest departures from the norm occur.

- Global Warming Cited as Wildfires Increase in Fragile Boreal Forest - New York Times
"Scientists say the near-destruction of Fort McMurray last week by a wildfire is the latest indication that the vital boreal forest is at risk from climate change.
Data from Canada and Alaska show a sharp increase in the area burned in recent decades. Scientists are still trying to reconstruct a longer fire history for the boreal region, using information like tree rings and lake deposits of soot, but limited evidence from Alaska suggests that fires in at least part of that state are at their worst in 10,000 years."


- Wildfires engulf thousands of hectares in Siberia, Far East, rains spare other regions - TASS News Agency
"A total of 116 wildfires are raging in eight Russian regions. Orthodox churches in the Amur Region are holding special services to pray for heavy rains."

From the last blog : AGU's Fall Meeting 2015: - VIDEO : Press Conference - Alaska's thawing permafrost : latest results and future projections.
A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N61W TO 13N62W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W.............................tropical.wave?
15. SLU
Quoting 12. OKsky:



SLU, Who in your opinion has credibility regarding climate science?


Certainly not the agents whitewashed as scientists who are paid healthy sums of money to have an opinion.
Quoting 15. SLU:



Certainly not the agents whitewashed as scientists who are paid healthy sums of money to have an opinion.


Well of course... but that didn't answer my question. What do you consider a good source for climate science?
Quoting 15. SLU:



Certainly not the agents whitewashed as scientists who are paid healthy sums of money to have an opinion.


Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck ....
sorry, I could not resist
From arctic-sea-ice.net : (Forum) RECORD EVENT REPORT : NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - BARROW AK
WED MAY 11 2016 ...DAILY HIGH MAX TIED... THE DAILY HIGH MAX OF 36 ON TUESDAY MAY 10 AT 1133 PM AKST TIED THE OLD DAILY HIGH MAX SET IN 1996.
"I see that Barrow has hit 36F and the webcam is showing extensive melt ponding on the landfast ice."

Our local water district here in the SF Bay Area of NorCal has announced the end of water rationing. Reservoirs are at or above 90% of capacity. Good news.
Quoting 3. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Mr. Henson and particularly for the stats on Alaska. The State is almost a peninsula of sorts surrounded by water on two sides (the North Pacific and Arctic Ocean-Bering Sea) and it is documented as one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth (with the Northernmost section within the Arctic Circle). Just wondering (I do not know the answer) to what degree warmer SST's may impact the melt issues with the Glaciers (on the coast) and warmer air temps impacting Permafrost melt further inland and the interrelation (feedback) between the two. And, to what degree is the overall warming trend more of a function of the recent changes to jet stream patterns which allow more warm air to flow into the region on a more regular basis.



I would say both warmer SSTs and warm air advection.
Quoting 21. BayFog:
I would say both warmer SSTs and warm air advection.
I heard that trying to attribute events to causes was passe'.

Quoting 20. BayFog:

Our local water district here in the SF Bay Area of NorCal has announced the end of water rationing. Reservoirs are at or above 90% of capacity. Good news.
The Wife is excited as she is going to Frisco for a Conference next week (her first time there); a mutual friend lives out there and they have already planned a ride out to the Napa Valley region............................I cannot go because I have to work and watch the kids...................... :(
Everyone have a safe weather evening; looking at the longer-range GFS for Conus, it looks like mid next-week might be the next potential shot for severe weather in the plains around Tuesday or Wednesday as a low pushes across. As always we hope for the best like today when things quieted down and SPC removed the enhanced risk category.


slu lives by the sea so i would not trash his opinion wish him and all islanders the best of luck this hurricane season.
Quoting 20. BayFog:

Our local water district here in the SF Bay Area of NorCal has announced the end of water rationing. Reservoirs are at or above 90% of capacity. Good news.


while that's a nice stat, I'm curious if it's politically motivated to do this...local water district have a upcoming election? how does that decision get made?
In case this hasn't been brought up, the tornado Monday near Katie, OK has been upgraded to an EF 4
Quoting 27. JrWeathermanFL:

In case this hasn't been brought up, the tornado Monday near Katie, OK has been upgraded to an EF 4


Yes, it was discussed in the previous blog, but many may have missed that information. It was a very strong tornado.
Quoting 15. SLU:



Certainly not the agents whitewashed as scientists who are paid healthy sums of money to have an opinion.


Healthy sums? From where? The NSF, NASA, NOAA, etc. all get pennies on the dollar when it comes to funding. Even less if you're just talking about climate related research. That's why we get to watch as the representatives of said agencies go before idiots like Smith and Inhofe begging for funds while saying "Please sir may I have another".

Exxon makes more profit in a quarter than these agencies get in a year, combined. And that's just one company.

So who do you think has the deeper pockets to fund the FUD machine? Or perhaps all the 10+ year old Hondas out in the NASA and NOAA parking lots here in the DC area are just cleverly painted Jags, Lexuses, BMWs so they don't let on that they're really filthy rich.

Give it rest. Only someone completely ignorant of what scientists actually do and what they actually make would even remotely consider the standard denier conspiracy theory as even remotely plausible. If they were really chasing after dollars, they'd ditch their current jobs and go work for the fossil fuels industries and/or conservative think tanks.
Quoting 8. JNFlori30A:

And for those inquiring minds...


I always wondered was north Dakota founded before south Dakota. Thanks for the chart!
Quoting 9. yonzabam:



I knew the US bought Alaska from Russia in the 19th century, so thought it must have been a state for longer than Hawaii. Turns out I was right, but for the wrong reason, though!


You would be surprised (or maybe not) by the number of Americans that think we have 52 states (Alaska and Hawaii being 51 and 52).
Quoting 25. islander101010:

slu lives by the sea so i would not trash his opinion wish him and all islanders the best of luck this hurricane season.


And Sarah Palin could see Russia from her house, so obviously that makes here an expert in international diplomacy, right?

SLU is regurgitating the same complete BS garbage deniers put forth in response to lacking any thing even remotely credible on the scientific front. It's basically a denier motto: "We hate science with all our vigor and vim! But since we can't prove anything let's all Ad Hominem!"

Edit: Spelling. Head cold. :P
Quoting 30. bigwes6844:


I always wondered was north Dakota founded before south Dakota. Thanks for the chart!


No one actually knows. For some reason Benjamin Harrison, president at the time, shuffled the papers to hide which state was admitted first.
90 degrees with a dewpoint of 68 degrees in Dallas. Lots of juice for storms.
Quoting 12. OKsky:



SLU, Who in your opinion has credibility regarding climate science?


97 percent of the climate scientists. The rest are hacks. :0
Latest GFS, ECMWF, GEM, NAVGEM and UKMET all agree, that a tropical cyclone will form within five days near Sri Lanka.
Massive Wildfires Erupt Near Russia-China Border - Lake Baikal Blazes Ignite (robertscribbler.com)
"In total, more than 2,100 personnel are now involved in firefighting efforts in Amur, near the Trans-Baikal region, and in Buryatia. Russian officials note that some of these fires were ignited when locals burned grass to clear fields for farming. A tradition among Russians, the fire danger is now so intense due to changing conditions brought on by climate change, that officials have outlawed the practice."

"David A. Robinson, a climatologist at Rutgers University who tracks snow cover, said that the April snow pack in the Northern Hemisphere was the lowest since records began half a century ago."

(36. elioe : that's still a risky bet though)

Meanwhile : UN warns of 'bleak' outlook for drought-hit Zimbabwe - Terradaily.com.
"A regional drought worsened by the El Nino weather phenomenon has hit Zimbabwe hard, with Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi also affected as thousands of cattle die, reservoirs are depleted and crops destroyed."
2016, the year the unknown AGW forcing's rear their collective assault on the Planet.

Quoting 16. OKsky:



Well of course...... but that didn't answer my question. What do you consider a good source for climate science?


Crickets
Anyone can find anything and everything about Climate Change with a lil search.

101 Top Web resources on Climate Change

In a age where one can learn about any subject, anytime,...wanton ignorance is a choice.

Ones ignorance is NOT equal to someones learned thinking on a matter.





Quoting 37. 999Ai2016:

>(36. elioe : that's still a risky bet though)



Well, no model is suggesting formation within 48 hours.
Quoting 4. yonzabam:

At the risk of being pedantic, Alaska became a state on Jan 3 1959, with Hawaii following on Aug 21 of that year, so it's the 49th state, not the 50th. Ironic that this should be picked up by a Brit!


I've actually met a few folks that have been up here before Alaska became a state.

Interesting news - we are supposed to have highs in the 70Fs later this week. I'm wondering if it will trigger heat advisories again. It's odd going from a place that a low of 70F was considered cool/cold to a place where it considers 70F to be scorching hot...
On the PBS Newshour tonight they announced that Miles O'Brien would be expanding his science reporting there , they solicited ideas from the public on what stories to do. I for one know what I intend to suggest.


But I don't see a link up yet.
Much is subject to change, but Monday is looking like a potentially active day across the Central Plains. The GFS shows a broad shortwave, with flow that isn't actually that strong for this time of the year, overspreading the region. The low-level jet is broad, with 40-50kt winds across much of Oklahoma and Kansas. Near the surface, CAPE is forecast to exceed 3000j/kg along the dryline and dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 60s (F). 0-1km SRH exceeds 300m2/s2, while 0-3km SRH exceeds 500m2/s2. This would set the stage for a potential outbreak.

The ECMWF hasn't been as enthused over past runs, but the most recent was I think a step in the direction of the GFS.

The Good:

Latest surface analysis at 20z has a frontal boundary pushing into
NW Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. This front will slowly push
into Texas tomorrow and Friday. The main issues being convection
forming along the front which could push into areas of E Texas.
Possible that a few strong storms could develop ahead of the front
and reach areas from Madisonville to Lufkin. The models are in
decent agreement with the front pushing towards Houston and
stalling basically along I-10 on Friday. This is one change from
yesterday`s forecast where the models had been stronger with the
front. Chances are that where the front stalls will change over
the next day or two, and may depend upon how much convective cold
pools affect the frontal push. The forecast will maintain 30
percent chances of thunderstorms, keeping an eye on an isolated
strong storm.

With the front now dissipating more quickly on Saturday, the warm
sector airmass looks to recover over SE Texas with surface
dewpoints back in the upper 60s to low 70s. Warm air advection may
support a few showers but confidence is low enough not to put 20
percent chances in the forecast. Upper level support looks rather
weak as there will be some weak ridging aloft. The ridging is
short lived as another short wave trough and jet streak move
towards Texas Sunday into Monday.

While the GFS and ECMWF both support thunderstorm chances Sunday
night into Monday, their timing, location and evolution are
different from each other with little run to run consistency.
There was some concern over possible heavy rainfall during this
time but there is very little signal in either model. And then
there is the Canadian model which, for a second model run, drops
several inches of rain across the area. That said, it is stronger
and more farther south with the short wave trough than the
GFS/ECMWF. GFS does not forecast much in the way of precipitable
water but values around 1.8 inches cannot be ignored. There still
should be good inflow with 20-30kts of 850mb flow from the Gulf of
Mexico and Corfidi Vectors are around 15-20kts from the NW. The
environment is favorable for heavy rainfall but there seems to be
a lack of surface forcing since the warm front will be north along
the Red River. Still this will be something to monitor. For now
the forecast will keep 40 percent rain chances given the lack of
confidence and models in very little agreement.


The Bad:





Could some tell me if this NAM 4km model run is showing an isolated severe thunderstorm over Houston?

Brad Panovich %u200F@wxbrad



That was a Hail of a storm this morning in Omaha, NE.
Quoting 42. Dakster:



I've actually met a few folks that have been up here before Alaska became a state.

Interesting news - we are supposed to have highs in the 70Fs later this week. I'm wondering if it will trigger heat advisories again. It's odd going from a place that a low of 70F was considered cool/cold to a place where it considers 70F to be scorching hot...


Another HUGE difference between Alaska and Florida is that in Alaska, State employee's can say "climate change" in any working environment, while in Florida, you can't even say "Climate Change" in State business.

Tell me again about who rant's and raves about Gub'ment overreach and such?

Hippos in Crates come to mind.

182. Patrap
11:45 AM CDT on May 11, 2016
2
+
Jim Cantore
6 hrs ·

At: 440am...Omaha dispatch reports 2FEET of hail on the ground near 36th and Forest Lawn. SNOWPLOW has been requested for the hail.
Quoting 46. RobertWC:


Brad Panovich %u200F@wxbrad



That was a Hail of a storm this morning in Omaha, NE.

The guy's face perfectly says "what even??"
"That was a Hail of a storm this morning in Omaha, NE."

I have long thought that hail is an excellent metric for measuring climate change for several reason's.
1 - It is the single largest insurance payout in the US, year in and year out, so those folks have detailed records.
2 - As the system gains energy the formation of water droplets will be bounced back up more often A water droplet, just can't fall to Earth any more , it will be hurled back upward to be frozen again and again.
3 - If number 2 is true, the number of events where we see "baseball" hail will increase.
4 - If number 2 is true, hail will appear where it was rarely seen before.

This whole hypothesis has an evil twin. in the winter months, Ice Storms. If this is true, ice storms will march to the poles. Like hail, they will appear where it was rarely seen before.
  Toasty up there today Dakster!!!
Very slow blog wonder why,just read the last 20 posts don't have to read any further.LOL
This whole hypothesis ( Man Made Climate Change ) . has a key component

Extreme Precipitation Events, they will grow stronger, and increase in number.

Hail is the overlooked extreme precipitation event, that I have never seen discussed . In any paper.

And as I said, it is single largest pay out the insurance companies deal with year after year.

It is really over looked component of the picture.
Quoting 52. help4u:

Very slow blog wonder why,just read the last 20 posts don't have to read any further.LOL


Well that does surprise me . Any other deep insights ?
This whole hypothesis ( Man Made Climate Change )

MMCC

I'm going for this from now on . Nobody knows what Anthropomorphic means.
What any single Human thinks or believes as to AGW/Climate Change matters ZERO as to the reality of the 24/7/365 days a year dumping of CO2 from Fossil Fuel Burning into the Earth's atmosphere.



1250.org

The number 1250 is a near-term interim target for atmospheric concentrations of methane (1250 parts per billion) akin to the long-term 350 (parts per million) stabilization target for CO2.

The non-CO2 forcings deserve emphasis comparable to that placed on CO2.

Expected difficulties in slowing the growth rate of CO2 and eventually stabilizing atmospheric CO2 amount make the non-CO2 forcings all the more important.

James Hansen, Former Director, NASA GISS

Dear Reader,

We are in a planetary climate emergency. As in all emergencies, the order and timing of our responses will now become critical.

According to some of the world's preeminent sea ice experts, one of whom is a member of this group, the Arctic summer sea ice minimum could rapidly drop to near-zero (with a September minimum of 1 million square kilometers in extent or lower) quite soon now, decades sooner than predicted by most major climate models. Because of the immense stores of methane and other carbon locked in the Arctic, the dramatically accelerating input of summer insolation into the Arctic ocean as more and more of the summer sea ice disappears, and the possible interconnections between these Arctic changes and increased extreme weather at the mid-latitudes where so many humans live, the risks of allowing the Arctic to melt unchecked are becoming untenable. Something must be done about it.

1250's mission is to help increase awareness of, and contribute to the development of, intelligent and well-informed near-term climate strategy to help alleviate this crisis, without interfering with the rapid transformation of energy systems and other needed actions to achieve immediate and dramatic cuts in our emissions of CO2. In this way, 1250 provides a vital component missing from the 350 movement begun by Bill McKibben. 1250 is not just an advocacy group for methane cuts, moreover. Rather, it is a group focusing on near-term climate as a whole, and the remaining practical pathways to constructing a climate bridge to a stable future.

Steep black carbon cuts, for example, will also be essential to building that bridge. The non-CO2 contributions to current warming taken together still exceed those of CO2 (they total about 57% of warming since industrialization), so there is considerable potential to alleviate our immediate situation through these means, and black carbon cuts in particular could bring their benefits very quickly and attenuate the accelerating Arctic crisis.

Unfortunately, however, doing the mat9 accurately these days also suggests that even with the most rapid reductions of black carbon, methane and other non-CO2 components (in addition to massive CO2 cuts, of course), emissions reductions alone will not long be able to keep the rapidly shifting Arctic stable. 1250 thus also advocates an immediate, holistic Arctic rescue package, including some mild, local engineered interventions. We agree fully with the goals of Greenpeace and their Save the Arctic program, but apart from pledging to keep out fossil fuel interests, Greenpeace has not yet detailed any way to save it.

If the Arctic is left to keep melting, moreover, it will become well-nigh impossible to stop the fossil industry from moving in, making this one the largest societal tipping points of our time. Either we move in the direction of 1250 which demands a change of consciousness about the plurality of climate change causes and cures or we will quite likely slide inexorably into a catastrophic future, even if positive steps are taken to move towards clean energy and lower CO2 emissions.




Quoting 9. yonzabam:



I knew the US bought Alaska from Russia in the 19th century, so thought it must have been a state for longer than Hawaii. Turns out I was right, but for the wrong reason, though!
Would the wrong reason be, also in the 19th century, the U.S. sent in the Marines, seized the Hawaiian KIngdom and imprisoned Queen Lili'uokalani?

Quoting 57. Patrap:

What any single Human thinks or believes as to AGW/Climate Change matters ZERO as to the reality of the 24/7/365 days a year dumping of CO2 from Fossil Fuel Burning into the Earth's atmosphere.





Wait, you mean... reality isn't contingent upon my beliefs? That's not what I was taught!
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:


Pretty much with all this rain.
Quoting 52. help4u:

Very slow blog wonder why,just read the last 20 posts don't have to read any further.LOL


Well that does surprise me . Any other deep insights ?
Fractures seen in rapidly melting Arctic sea ice, and it's only May - Mashable :
Even accounting for the accelerating pace of Arctic climate change, sea ice loss in the Far North is running well ahead of schedule. This may signal a near record or record low sea ice extent to come in September. Fractures in the ice cover are evident north of Greenland, which Mark Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, told Mashable are "quite unusual" for this time of year. "To me, it suggests a thinner, weaker ice cover," Serreze said.
- And this is how Greenland's ice cap is doing right now, after the earliest melt event ever recorded back in April (first red spike on the graph, there's a second one occuring right now : notice how far from the 2 standard deviations the April melt event appears to be). Still it's probably gonna melt a lot more during the next 5 days, if the forecast verifies.

Graph Source : NSIDC - Greenland Today (more text/images/graphs available there)
Quoting 38. Patrap:

2016, the year the unknown AGW forcing's rear their collective assault on the Planet.




CAHP
Every graph we see, steps way outside the chart. Any fool that thinks we will bend this trend, is a moron.

So please , dump these folks that think we can have "Fun, Fun", and drive our Corvettes as fast as we want.

Those days are gone forever, over a long time ago.

Link



Quoting 63. LouisPasteur:


I am really offended that you chose this avatar. He is one of the great minds of history, you are here just to , lie. deny. repeat.
Don't do drugs kids :)
Twin snakey storms up by Amarillo.


(Moving static image added.)
Say what?
Did the GFS ever had it upgrade yet?

Quoting 69. Tazmanian:

Did the GFS ever had it upgrade yet?
Wasn't it supposed to be scheduled for today.....   http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
Uhhg! Another light frost yesterday morning here in Acme, wa. Lots of hot sunny days and no measurable rain yet in May. Most of the garden looks good but some toasted leaves on my dahlias n squash, glad i waited to plant my corn n beans. Guess the oldtimer who told me to wait till May 15 knew what they were talking about.
QUOTE: 57 Patrap James Hansen, Former Director, NASA GISS:

“We are in a planetary climate emergency. As in all emergencies, the order and timing of our responses will now become critical...”



You know, I can accept analysis of Global Warming from scientist or well informed individuals... But there is something that really bothers me about this... Mr. Hansen was in a high position with both NASA and the Goddard Center... In both he had to know, see documents, or hear whispers about (Unacknowledged Special Access Projects) dealing with secret space programs (having to do with reactor and plasma technology capable of distortion of space-time)... These technologies have the power and means to provide generation of energy capable of clean power for this civilization...

To point a direction of NASA deception I have listen to a video of an individual who worked in
the photographic area of NASA who has seen evidence of moon structures... Not to mention the
alteration of video to hide anomalies (UFO's)... Some folks need to come clean...

The evidence my statements here and much, much more is manifest in thousand of hours of testimony through out the internet...But I am aware of DEATH risks for me and others who have come forward. Many have DIED...The roots of this information disease can be traced to a historical Oligarchy... Even though I have protective measures, the means these folks can muster can barely be
imagined... that is all I have to say...
For GFS:

- Improve bias correction for aircraft observations
- Modify relocation and storm tracking to allow hourly tropical
cyclone relocation

Nice.
Quoting 36. elioe:

Latest GFS, ECMWF, GEM, NAVGEM and UKMET all agree, that a tropical cyclone will form within five days near Sri Lanka.


India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST May 12 2016
=============================

A low pressure area is likely to form over equatorial Indian ocean and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal around the 14th.
Have to agree with this.
Last year during raining season in SW FL, I encountered 3 hail events in the same area, give or take a few miles. This was in about 3-4 week span.
Previously, in the 25 years I have lived here, I might have seen hail about once a year.
BTW, our summer storms here are not supposed to produce hail!

Quoting 50. RobertWC:

"That was a Hail of a storm this morning in Omaha, NE."

I have long thought that hail is an excellent metric for measuring climate change for several reason's.
1 - It is the single largest insurance payout in the US, year in and year out, so those folks have detailed records.
2 - As the system gains energy the formation of water droplets will be bounced back up more often A water droplet, just can't fall to Earth any more , it will be hurled back upward to be frozen again and again.
3 - If number 2 is true, the number of events where we see "baseball" hail will increase.
4 - If number 2 is true, hail will appear where it was rarely seen before.

This whole hypothesis has an evil twin. in the winter months, Ice Storms. If this is true, ice storms will march to the poles. Like hail, they will appear where it was rarely seen before.
Quoting 73. plantmoretrees:

Uhhg! Another light frost yesterday morning here in Acme, wa. Lots of hot sunny days and no measurable rain yet in May. Most of the garden looks good but some toasted leaves on my dahlias n squash, glad i waited to plant my corn n beans. Guess the oldtimer who told me to wait till May 15 knew what they were talking about.
Some oldtimers say Mother's Day for most plants. Dahlias do real well in Western WA. I don't know how much you know about the dahlias, so I will tell you what I know in case it might be helpful. The "oldtimers" say best to plant tubers around Memorial Day so it doesn't frost after they're in the ground. Dahlias need a sunny spot. They will bloom late summer till the first frost. After the first frost, cut the plants down and dig the tubers up. Cut the stems off short and put the tubers in a brown paper bag for winter. Store in a cool place where they are not in danger of freezing. Dahlia tubers naturally multiply by making new eyes if you leave them in the ground till first frost. If you pull tuber pieces apart when you dig them or when you plant them, be sure each piece has an eye. You will have more and more dahlia plants each year. Dahlias are beautiful and well worth the trouble.

In that valley where Acme is, you probably get frost later and earlier than coastal places in Western WA.
Holy crap Wash, I heard your breaking a record on daily rain occurrence, but I didn't know it was that bad!

Quoting 56. washingtonian115:


Quoting 81. 882MB:


Looking good so far. Pity some of the rain doesn't make it to E Africa.....
Quoting 74. 1982ExxonPrimate:

QUOTE: 57 Patrap James Hansen, Former Director, NASA GISS:

"We are in a planetary climate emergency. As in all emergencies, the order and timing of our responses will now become critical..."

You know, I can accept analysis of Global Warming from scientist or well informed individuals... But there is something that really bothers me about this... Mr. Hansen was in a high position with both NASA and the Goddard Center... In both he had to know, see documents, or hear whispers about (Unacknowledged Special Access Projects) dealing with secret space programs (having to do with reactor and plasma technology capable of distortion of space-time)... These technologies have the power and means to provide generation of energy capable of clean power for this civilization...

To point a direction of NASA deception I have listen to a video of an individual who worked in
the photographic area of NASA who has seen evidence of moon structures... Not to mention the
alteration of video to hide anomalies (UFO's)... Some folks need to come clean...

The evidence my statements here and much, much more is manifest in thousand of hours of testimony through out the internet...But I am aware of DEATH risks for me and others who have come forward. Many have DIED...The roots of this information disease can be traced to a historical Oligarchy... Even though I have protective measures, the means these folks can muster can barely be
imagined... that is all I have to say...

Hi 1982ExxonPrimate, as you probably know, what you are saying will be labeled as conspiracy theory. I for one will not blindly rule it out because I strive to discover new truths and scientific facts no matter how much they disprove what I thought I knew. This is the heart of true scientists, who are so committed to discovering new knowledge, that they're willing to let go of their existing preconceptions or beliefs.

With that said, we all have work to do in becoming better scientists. Especially now with the culminating planetary crisis humanity faces. We need to truly activate our curiosity about how everything works together, and then create new collaborative relationships and solutions. As Naomi Klien suggests, enough of us together can turn our planetary crisis into a quantum jump opportunity, and thereby overcome any of those conspiring against us. The means we can muster is beyond their imagination.
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:



The not so nice news behind this picture (uah):
Austrian beauty spot at risk from urinating tourists
The Local (Austria), Published: 10 May 2016 11:18 GMT+02:00
The Grüner See -- known as Austria's most beautiful spot -- is at risk of losing the clear emerald-green waters that gave it its name due to warmer weather coupled with years of tourists urinating in the lake.
The stunning tourist attraction near the Styrian village of Tragöß was at one time particularly popular among divers as every year the lake floods and rises to cover trees, benches and a bridge, creating a temporary underwater world.
In 2014 it was even voted "Austria's most beautiful place" in the TV show "9 Plätze - 9 Schätze" (9 places - 9 treasures). ...


Wiki: Grüner See (Styria)

Beautiful photo gallery (as along as there weren't too many tourists).
Quoting 20. BayFog:

Our local water district here in the SF Bay Area of NorCal has announced the end of water rationing. Reservoirs are at or above 90% of capacity. Good news.


Excellent news Bay.
Quoting 50. RobertWC:



As far as I know, most, if not all, hail events are associated with thunderstorms, that are connected to frontal systems. And in the northern hemisphere, as the high latitudes warm up more than the tropics, future setup would favor barotropic systems over baroclinic ones, therefore possibly even reducing the amount of hail. So amount of hail events would not be as successful metric of climate change impacts as extreme precipitation events in general are.
earths.working
Quoting 17. Neapolitan:

Oh, really? Coming from Ryan "I Would Do Anything To Be Climate Laughinstock Joe Bastardi When I Grow Up, And I'm Already Well On My Way" Maue, that is pretty rich.


You can't be serious... Maue is certainly far more qualified than a mechanical engineer or an exceptionally misguided meteorologist to discuss climate science, especially considering he's actually published on the subject on multiple occasions (largely wrt TCs)...

Link

Link
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The UK Met Office is calling for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season of 8 hurricanes and ACE 120% of normal.

Quoting 89. JRRP7:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The UK Met Office is calling for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season of 8 hurricanes and ACE 120% of normal.
Good Morning Folks.  The recent signs and look of the ITCZ are pointing towards an above-average season.  Apart from the potential early season and late season ones for the Western Caribbean and Gulf region, we could have a very active Cape Verde season this year.  If that happens, then the determining factor in terms of potential impacts will be how the A-B high sets up the steering currents.  It's going to be an interesting season for sure and especially if we swing towards La Nina in September with lower shear conditions.  
And here is the current forecast and look for Conus today: a very small Conus jet  profile and looking like a relatively quiet day except for some strong t-storms where the jet is active north of Texas and pushing slowly to the NE:




And in the global tropics, all is quiet except for the Indian Ocean where things look like they want to pop:

Combined image of all basins



I am trying to figure out the overall view that the western Carib will have an active early season? This is the same rhetoric that is said every year. There are no indications of this at all especially on the heels of El Niño so what gives.
Quoting 90. weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning Folks.  The recent signs and look of the ITCZ are pointing towards an above-average season.  Apart from the potential early season and late season ones for the Western Caribbean and Gulf region, we could have a very active Cape Verde season this year.  If that happens, then the determining factor in terms of potential impacts will be how the A-B high sets up the steering currents.  It's going to be an interesting season for sure and especially if we swing towards La Nina in September with lower shear conditions.  
TXPZ25 KNES 121222
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 12/1200Z

C. 10.7N

D. 112.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LLCC APPEARS TO BE LOCATED UNDER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. CURVED BANDING WRAPS .25 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER FIX POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

Link


Floater



Quoting 93. 19N81W:

I am trying to figure out the overall view that the western Carib will have an active early season? This is the same rhetoric that is said every year. There are no indications of this at all especially on the heels of El Niño so what gives.

As we know, the yearly season average for the June-July period is 1.7 storms so I don't have a position of an over-active early season in that period. However, if La Nina conditions do develop in September, we could a few additional storms at back end of the season in the West Caribbean in the October time-frame.  Have to wait on that one to see if a La Nina actually materializes.  
So, the E-Pac season starts on Sunday and we have an invest: a tiny bugger..............................



Quoting 93. 19N81W:

I am trying to figure out the overall view that the western Carib will have an active early season? This is the same rhetoric that is said every year. There are no indications of this at all especially on the heels of El Niño so what gives.

2009 was exceptionally dry and in the beginning of 2010 the caribbean was dry as well because the full effects of the la nina didn't really swing in.However 2010 ended up being one of the wettest years for the caribbean.Your rain will come...
Quoting 74. 1982ExxonPrimate:
***Much nonsensensical paranoid grabage deleted***


Oh FFS get over yourself. I worked at NASA for a number of years and they aren't nearly competent enough to accomplish (let alone cover up) even fraction of what you imply. Especially with the pitiful funding they get.

There are plenty of crazy nutball sites out there who will be more than happy to embrace your paranoid delusions of grandeur. And, quite frankly, we already have a bevy of our own cranks, crackpots, and conspiracy nutters so the position of resident nutjob is already more than filled. If the position opens up and we're just jonesing for a conspiratroll we'll be sure to keep you in mind.

Forecast for Riverside is 93, down a couple degrees from what the said yesterday...
101. OKsky
Quoting 88. Webberweather53:



You can't be serious... Maue is certainly far more qualified than a mechanical engineer or an exceptionally misguided meteorologist to discuss climate science, especially considering he's actually published on the subject on multiple occasions (largely wrt TCs)...

Link

Link


I don't know much about Maue, so I am assuming he denies AGW based on his comment.... perhaps he doesn't like some other aspect about Bill Nye..idk.
If that is the case, can anyone explain how you make the jump from "decrease in global TC activity" to "AGW isn't happening"? Doesn't that require ignoring a ton of other evidence? (rising CO2 levels, temps, water levels...etc) Or is there something more to that line of thought that I am missing?
102. MahFL
Quoting 86. elioe:



As far as I know, most, if not all, hail events are associated with thunderstorms, that are connected to frontal systems. And in the northern hemisphere, as the high latitudes warm up more than the tropics, future setup would favor barotropic systems over baroclinic ones, therefore possibly even reducing the amount of hail. So amount of hail events would not be as successful metric of climate change impacts as extreme precipitation events in general are.


Fronts have got nothing to do with hail.
103. MahFL
Quoting 89. JRRP7:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The UK Met Office is calling for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season of 8 hurricanes and ACE 120% of normal.


Bring it on !
Quoting 98. Xyrus2000:



Oh FFS get over yourself. I worked at NASA for a number of years and they aren't nearly competent enough to accomplish (let alone cover up) even fraction of what you imply. Especially with the pitiful funding they get.

There are plenty of crazy nutball sites out there who will be more than happy to embrace your paranoid delusions of grandeur. And, quite frankly, we already have a bevy of our own cranks, crackpots, and conspiracy nutters so the position of resident nutjob is already more than filled. If the position opens up and we're just jonesing for a conspiratroll we'll be sure to keep you in mind.
I think of the issues the government had breaking into an iPhone and any inklings of a grand government conspiracy went out the window. It's all Hollywood fun.
Quoting 98. Xyrus2000:



Oh FFS get over yourself. I worked at NASA for a number of years and they aren't nearly competent enough to accomplish (let alone cover up) even fraction of what you imply. Especially with the pitiful funding they get.

There are plenty of crazy nutball sites out there who will be more than happy to embrace your paranoid delusions of grandeur. And, quite frankly, we already have a bevy of our own cranks, crackpots, and conspiracy nutters so the position of resident nutjob is already more than filled. If the position opens up and we're just jonesing for a conspiratroll we'll be sure to keep you in mind.
Possible you did not have high enough security clearance?
~:) from the beauty of the bevy
I am not convinced based on what I see from the ground and what I see in the air....
I hope your right.....keep in mind the Caribbean is a large area and the western Caribbean well the Caymans in particular are a tiny land mass in the middle of a sea so there are no land masses influencing or creating weather.

Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

2009 was exceptionally dry and in the beginning of 2010 the caribbean was dry as well because the full effects of the la nina didn't really swing in.However 2010 ended up being one of the wettest years for the caribbean.Your rain will come...
Quoting 68. Barefootontherocks:

Twin snakey storms up by Amarillo.


(Moving static image added.)
Say what?


Heckuva lot of (some huge) hail reports from those two, esp the more easter cell... on into the wee hours in SW OK, including wind damage near Geronimo, OK. Possible tornado? Unlikely given the conditions but you never know.

SPC storm reports for May 11, 2016 through 7 am cdt May 12
Quoting 98. Xyrus2000:



Oh FFS get over yourself. I worked at NASA for a number of years and they aren't nearly competent enough to accomplish (let alone cover up) even fraction of what you imply. Especially with the pitiful funding they get.

There are plenty of crazy nutball sites out there who will be more than happy to embrace your paranoid delusions of grandeur. And, quite frankly, we already have a bevy of our own cranks, crackpots, and conspiracy nutters so the position of resident nutjob is already more than filled. If the position opens up and we're just jonesing for a conspiratroll we'll be sure to keep you in mind.



That's exactly what someone covering up something would say... HmmmmMMMmmMMmmMmmm




Looks like we'll start a faster transition to a La Nina now. The cold pool is sufacing in the 3.4 region now and the Euro/GFS are showing strengthening of the trade winds across the equatorial pacific over the next 10 days - consistent with a developing La Nina.
Regarding the Indian Ocean:







Some disagreement in its track - GFS has it making landfall in Indian then coming back out in the Bay of Bengal before strengthing and heading into Myanmar. The Euro/CMC have it landfalling in India without coming back into the Bay of Bengal. Hopefully the cyclone won't cause too much damage and that it will be able to deliver a lot of needed rain to help cool down parts of India!
Quoting 102. MahFL:



Fronts have got nothing to do with hail.


Really?

We track cold fronts because they often precede thunderstorms and hail.
The Indian Ocean is blazing hot! You would think the IO would have at least 2 storms at the same time as we speak because the conditions are very volurnable to any TC activity. This would be fuel to the fire if there was cat 3 or higher. Hope our GOM doesn't get like the IO.

GFS is on to something with this Sri Lank-ane, could be a serious threat indeed. We'll see, and especially if it can organize better than it does in the models. There is potential. This risky bet looks like a fair bet to me now. I hope it's not gonna strike the Chennai area in India with too much precips, it was already brought to a standstill this past winter by huge floods from another shallow cyclone. Current GFS avatar is far from being able to trigger catastrophic floods though. Maybe it would need rapid intensification to occur just before a hypothetic landfall, I don't know, but this pattern of shallow not-so-windy South Indian landfall that brings much needed rain is quite frequent there, I believe. If the next runs from several different models indicate further intensification before landfall than the previous ones, it would obviously become a legit. threat in my mind. Sames wishes as yours, Envoirment.
Maybe the real threat could emerge from the small area south of it, aiming at Madagascar ;-)
22 years and it's only hailed 1 time (dime sized) at my location on the south side of Fort Myers, Florida.

When I lived on the S.W. side of Oklahoma City it hailed several times each year. The worst hail storm had baseball sized hail that did an incredible amount of damage.

Quoting 112. bigwes6844:

The Indian Ocean is blazing hot! You would think the IO would have at least 2 storms at the same time as we speak because the conditions are very volurnable to any TC activity. This would be fuel to the fire if there was cat 3 or higher. Hope our GOM doesn't get like the IO.


Oh, it will, and TX will get three landfalls, probably A, C and E names precisely because we desperately don't need them and they will drown us.

In spite of the rain over North Cal., and better reservoirs levels, Drought Monitor map isn't looking good at the moment.
Canada seen from the ISS - Smoke plume, by astronaut # Jeff Williams :


Rainy weather shrinks Saskatchewan's high risk fire zone (but area north of Lloydminster still a big danger zone) - CBC News

117. elioe
Quoting 115. redwagon:



Oh, it will, and TX will get three landfalls, probably A, C and E names precisely because we desperately don't need them and they will drown us.


Perhaps the remnants of Alex are still spinning somewhere in the Arctic, ready to move back south and regenerate five months after becoming extratropical? :)
You know this hail stone must have melted some before they got it into a freezer.

is it me or that water vapour loop is not conducive to TC formation?
Quoting 118. Patrap:




121. JRRP7
122. IDTH
Quoting 109. Envoirment:





Looks like we'll start a faster transition to a La Nina now. The cold pool is sufacing in the 3.4 region now and the Euro/GFS are showing strengthening of the trade winds across the equatorial pacific over the next 10 days - consistent with a developing La Nina.

Had a feeling this was going to happen. This transition is record breaking fast. We saw Nino's 1 and 2 plummet significantly and now Nino's 3 and 4 are doing the same. The Indian Ocean without a doubt in my mind is getting the most upward motion this year but I believe the Atlantic will start to see a lot if it by the peak of the season.
Quoting 120. 19N81W:

is it me or that water vapour loop is not conducive to TC formation?



It's May 12th and we're currently still in an El Nino pattern. We've had a number of storms the last few years form/travel through the Western Caribbean - TS Don/Harvey and Major Hurricane Rina in 2011, Hurricane Ernesto and Major Hurricane Sandy in 2012, TS Barry in 2013 and TS Hannah in 2014. Nothing formed last year because of the developing El Nino and record breaking shear. This year should be different with a developing La Nina.
Quoting 121. JRRP7:


GFS bias of having a low move north from the Caribbean.
125. bwi
Gah! Cold where we are sick of it; warm where we don't need it.
Seems like everyone is forgetting that the PDO is sitting at +2.40 (March figures) and has been strongly positive for over three years now...
Can't help thinking that a big dip in Arctic Ocean ice extent like the current one is pretty significant as we head towards maximum sunlight intensity in June.



Quoting 119. Sfloridacat5:

You know this hail stone must have melted some before they got it into a freezer.




This is the late NCAR scientist Nancy Knight with the infamous Coffeyville, KS, hailstone (September 3, 1970), the U.S. record-holder for many years. Here's a profile with some more background on Nancy Knight:

Nancy Knight: The life of a singular scientist
Bob, you need to clean up the link in #128


Quoting 115. redwagon:



Oh, it will, and TX will get three landfalls, probably A, C and E names precisely because we desperately don't need them and they will drown us.


Hey! Hey! Hey! Let's not be talking that way or I will fix your little red wagon. :)
134. elioe
WHO has published a new database about air pollution in 3000 cities. The purest air was in the "city" of Muonio, Finland. The question arises, why they have measured the "urban air" in such a "city" of 2000 people...
A few new additions to the updated 2016 Hurricane Prep entry.

Hurricane Preparation 2016

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane



Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan

Disaster Supplies Kit




Pet Care Disaster Preparedness

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's



Quoting 127. yonzabam:

Can't help thinking that a big dip in Arctic Ocean ice extent like the current one is pretty significant as we head towards maximum sunlight intensity in June.



Yes, and now Greenland's ice cap is having problems too : Greenland Today - NSIDC
137. OKsky
Quoting 134. elioe:

WHO has published a new database about air pollution in 3000 cities. The purest air was in the "city" of Muonio, Finland. The question arises, why they have measured the "urban air" in such a "city" of 2000 people...


I must be suffering from a bad case of the dumdums today. I read each of your links (they were interesting, btw, thank you), but I didn't see what you were talking about. Why wouldn't they sample air from Muonio? Does it suggest something about their dataset? Can you just state what you think it means rather than leave it up to my derpness to figure out? :)


EDIT: Ok.. I think I see where you are coming from.. maybe. You are asking why such a low population city is in their dataset when the 3000th by population city has 160K people. My guess is that they take all the data they can get, in that news release it sounds like they recently doubled the size of their database and that they take as much of it as they can get as long as its vetted through official sources. From your WHO link:

"The primary source of data include official reporting from countries to WHO, and official national and sub-national reports and web sites containing measurements of PM10 or PM2.5. Measurements reported by the following regional networks were used: the Clean Air Asia for Asia and the European Environment Agency for Europe%u2019s Air Quality e-Reporting database. In the absence of data from the previous sources, data from UN and development agencies, peer-reviewed journal articles and ground measurements compiled in the framework of the Global Burden of Disease project were used."
Cryosat spacecraft's ice vision is boosted

European scientists have found a way to super-charge their study of the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland.

The novel technique boosts the data about height changes that are gathered by radar instruments on satellites.

Known as swath altimetry, it permits researchers to see broader regions of the ice sheets in any one pass overhead, and at a much finer scale.

Areas of melting or accumulation can now be investigated with 100 times more information.


Read more here - Link
139. elioe
Quoting 137. OKsky:



I must be suffering from a bad case of the dumdums today. I read each of your links (they were interesting, btw, thank you), but I didn't see what you were talking about. Why wouldn't they sample air from Muonio? Does it suggest something about their dataset? Can you just state what you think it means rather than leave it up to my derpness to figure out? :)


In their press release, WHO describes their work with words "city", "urban area", "urban air quality". Guardian complies with that wording:


Quoting Guardian:

The UN’s third outdoor air pollution database suggests the cleanest cities in the world are generally small, wealthy and situated far from industrial centres. Muonio in Finland, a town above the Arctic circle, has the world’s purest recorded urban air, recording just 2 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5 pollution and 4 micrograms per cubic metre of PM10s. It is closely followed by Norman Wells in Canada, Campisábalos in Spain and Converse County, Wyoming in the US.


And the point I tried to make: I have never thought that anyone would describe a population center of 2000 people as being a "city", an "urban area", rarely even a "town". (Legislatively, it's only a "church village" of a municipality.) Perhaps it would be more fitting to consider, that WHO made a "database about air pollution in population centers".
Quoting 132. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Hey! Hey! Hey! Let's not be talking that way or I will fix your little red wagon. :)


Go look at that potential system Gearsts posted in #124. Has our name written all over it. What's the A storm this year? Allison, probably?
141. OKsky
Quoting 137. OKsky:



I must be suffering from a bad case of the dumdums today. I read each of your links (they were interesting, btw, thank you), but I didn't see what you were talking about. Why wouldn't they sample air from Muonio? Does it suggest something about their dataset? Can you just state what you think it means rather than leave it up to my derpness to figure out? :)


EDIT: Ok.. I think I see where you are coming from.. maybe. You are asking why such a low population city is in their dataset when the 3000th by population city has 160K people. In that news release it sounds like they recently doubled the size of their database and that they take as much of it as they can get as long as its vetted through official sources. From your WHO link:

"The primary source of data include official reporting from countries to WHO, and official national and sub-national reports and web sites containing measurements of PM10 or PM2.5. Measurements reported by the following regional networks were used: the Clean Air Asia for Asia and the European Environment Agency for Europe%u2019s Air Quality e-Reporting database. In the absence of data from the previous sources, data from UN and development agencies, peer-reviewed journal articles and ground measurements compiled in the framework of the Global Burden of Disease project were used."


geeze.. i somehow accidently quoted myself.. as I said.. I have a case of the dumsdums today.
Quoting 140. redwagon:



Go look at that potential system Gearsts posted in #124. Has our name written all over it. What's the A storm this year? Allison, probably?


Remember that we've already had the "A" storm in January....
Quoting 127. yonzabam:

Can't help thinking that a big dip in Arctic Ocean ice extent like the current one is pretty significant as we head towards maximum sunlight intensity in June.





accelerating global warming
after which runaway global warming is next
then the fun really starts and not gentle like now
double post
Quoting 144. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


rising fast now
2015 has nothing on 2016 what a difference

if I dare say 05 looks very close too 2016 maybe even a littlecooler than 05 but close

T-19 DAYS
Quoting 78. Barefootontherocks:

Some oldtimers say Mother's Day for most plants. Dahlias do real well in Western WA. I don't know how much you know about the dahlias, so I will tell you what I know in case it might be helpful. The "oldtimers" say best to plant tubers around Memorial Day so it doesn't frost after they're in the ground. Dahlias need a sunny spot. They will bloom late summer till the first frost. After the first frost, cut the plants down and dig the tubers up. Cut the stems off short and put the tubers in a brown paper bag for winter. Store in a cool place where they are not in danger of freezing. Dahlia tubers naturally multiply by making new eyes if you leave them in the ground till first frost. If you pull tuber pieces apart when you dig them or when you plant them, be sure each piece has an eye. You will have more and more dahlia plants each year. Dahlias are beautiful and well worth the trouble.

In that valley where Acme is, you probably get frost later and earlier than coastal places in Western WA.


Thanks for the tips, I was wrong in assuming that all the record high temp here meant I could safely plant a little earlier. The folks closer to the coast are certainly in the clear, in fact my bee keeper neibors just 1 mile away havent had a frost since mid April. I am in the cold spot I guess. I started my dahlias from seed last year and got nice fat tubbers that I saved with my spuds… did a little research and found out that they are edible… but didnt eat any. 71° and sunny at lunch, hoping to get some rain soon my seedlings need it.
The current toastiest SSTs are still in the Indian Ocean region but the Atlantic and Gulf will catch up over the next 2 months as the NH continues to tilt toward the Sun for the Summer: and note that plume of cold water moving off of SA into the Pacific; might also be signalling the proto-start towards Neutral or La Nina conditions downstream in a few months:



Quoting 66. RobertWC:

Quoting 63. LouisPasteur:


I am really offended that you chose this avatar. He is one of the great minds of history, you are here just to , lie. deny. repeat.


I'm sorry, perhaps you have confused me with someone else. I have never denied anything here, nor lied about anything. And while we are clearing confusion, please get a dictionary and look up the word avatar.




Welcome rain!
155. OKsky
Quoting 153. LouisPasteur:



I'm sorry, perhaps you have confused me with someone else. I have never denied anything here, nor lied about anything. And while we are clearing confusion, please get a dictionary and look up the word avatar.


Nah he didn't confuse you with anyone else... but you know that already. He also used the word "avatar", but he meant "username"... but you knew that already too. Your disingenuousness aside, what exactly does CAHP stand for? I see you type that a lot as a response to people on here and I assume you are trying to communicate something. I would feel bad for not knowing, except google doesn't seem to know either.
Quoting 147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

if I dare say 05 looks very close too 2016 maybe even a littlecooler than 05 but close



Hey keep look at the loop current in the GOM in 05 no wonder why the storms was breeding off the GOM in 2005.
We should get fresh articles soon about the relationship between hail events & climate change. It seems like it's a pretty difficult task, due to the localized nature of hail, and the quality of the proxies from which to derive any long-term changes. However, some insurance companies are funding research efforts since at least 2009.
- Evolution of Hail Storms over Europe in a Changing Climate
- Hail Risk and Climate Change
- Climate Change, Tornado and Hail - AER
I hope something new emerges soon from these research projects.
- Climate change expected to bring more thunder, hail, and tornadoes (USA) - John Upton on Sep 23, 2013
Quoting 155. OKsky:



Nah he didn't confuse you with anyone else... but you know that already. He also used the word "avatar", but he meant "username"... but you knew that already too. Your disingenuousness aside, what exactly does CAHP stand for? I see you type that a lot as a response to people on here and I assume you are trying to communicate something. I would feel bad for not knowing, except google doesn't seem to know either.
It stands for California Highway Patrol.
160. OKsky
Quoting 159. Llamaluvr:

It stands for California Highway Patrol.


LOL, yeah as well as "Childhood Arthritis Health Profile" and a huge list of other random meaningless things. Im curious as to what he thinks it means though (or if "California Highway Patrol" has some significance that I am unaware of... I wanna be hip and cool like Mr LouisPasteur)
Quoting 119. Sfloridacat5:

You know this hail stone must have melted some before they got it into a freezer.


All the comparison to round objects tends to make those who aren't very familiar with hail forget that it can be quite jagged and sharp - edged......
Quoting 160. OKsky:



LOL, yeah as well as "Childhood Arthritis Health Profile" and a huge list of other random meaningless things. Im curious as to what he thinks it means though (or if "California Highway Patrol" has some significance that I am unaware of... I wanna be hip and cool like Mr LouisPasteur)
I found a website for 'Internet slang"
Link
Not sure what he's talking about though.He may not have good intentions...
Quoting 120. 19N81W:

is it me or that water vapour loop is not conducive to TC formation?

Nothing much happening right now ... usually don't see a shift until about a week from now....
Quoting 145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

rising fast now
Big jump since last week in my area.... clear skies and relatively light winds ..... starting to feel the heat in the afternoons due to increased humidity.
Quoting 159. Llamaluvr:

It stands for California Highway Patrol.


Ahem, the California Association of Highway Patrolmen.
Quoting 162. washingtonian115:

I found a website for 'Internet slang"
Link
Not sure what he's talking about though.He may not have good intentions...


It could be the Coalition of Affordable Housing Providers. But seriously, he doesn't have good intentions.
Quoting 104. SouthTampa:

I think of the issues the government had breaking into an iPhone and any inklings of a grand government conspiracy went out the window. It's all Hollywood fun.


A large part of me believes this message was sent to lead us to believe it's more difficult than it is... People have been getting more and more leery of comms over text and easily searchable means. This message would lead us into continuing to communicate in a manner that can easily be data-mined. *dons tinfoil hat*

Full disclosure: I manage data warehouses for the government for a living and have 2 degrees, 6 certifications, and 19 years in the IT industry. Data mining scares me, and I love conspiracy theories (regardless if true).

I don't believe it was this difficult, even for a second.

Cheers!
2016 Hurricane Season Update
North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2016

Hurricane Isabel viewed from space in 2003
Forecast for June to November 2016

Issued 12 May 2016

The most likely number of named tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the June to November period is 14, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 10 to 18. The 1980-2010 long-term average is 12.

The most likely number of hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the June to November period is 8, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 6 to 10. The 1980-2010 long-term average is 6.

An ACE index of 125 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 77 to 173. The 1980-2010 average is 104.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclo ne/seasonal/northatlantic2016
168. OKsky
Quoting 166. FSUCOOPman:



A large part of me believes this message was sent to lead us to believe it's more difficult than it is... People have been getting more and more leery of comms over text and easily searchable means. This message would lead us into continuing to communicate in a manner that can easily be data-mined. *dons tinfoil hat*

Full disclosure: I manage data warehouses for the government for a living and have 2 degrees, 6 certifications, and 19 years in the IT industry. Data mining scares me, and I love conspiracy theories (regardless if true).

I don't believe it was this difficult, even for a second.

Cheers!

CAHP! (jk... I don't even know what that means)
My credentials are not as impressive as yours, but to reinforce your point.... I hate conspiracy theories and other forms of magical thinking, have designed data warehouses in the private sector and data mining scares me a bit.
Quoting 148. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T-19 DAYS


Only a few weeks from the start of our rainy (wet) season here. We go from an average of 2.69" in May to 10.09" in June here in Fort Myers.
Basically four months of oppressive heat and humidity with afternoon thunderstorms almost everyday. Then in October we start to transition back to the "dry" season. We only average 1.96" in November.

We have very noticeable wet-dry seasons here in S.W. FL. We average 58" of rain each year, but most of it comes in four months (June - Sept).

Quoting 153. LouisPasteur:



I'm sorry, perhaps you have confused me with someone else. I have never denied anything here, nor lied about anything. And while we are clearing confusion, please get a dictionary and look up the word avatar.


Yes, yes you have. You deny basic science. Repeatedly. You lie about basic science. Repeatedly. And when someone points that out to you, contradicts you, or posts links to information the completely discredits your claims and your sad attempts to rehash long debunked garbage, your deep insightful replies amount to, and I quote:

"CAHP"

Oh yes, that certainly is a compelling argument against nearly 2 centuries worth of science.

Cranky Ad Hominem Post
A whole lot of new record high temps in south Asia in the last days : 24 stations set a new record (data : Maximiliano Herrera). But hey : it's the hot season there right now, in the middle of the hottest year ever...
Quoting 140. redwagon:

Go look at that potential system Gearsts posted in #124. Has our name written all over it. What's the A storm this year? Allison, probably?

Alex
Quoting 171. Xyrus2000:



Yes, yes you have. You deny basic science. Repeatedly. You lie about basic science. Repeatedly. And when someone points that out to you, contradicts you, or posts links to information the completely discredits your claims and your sad attempts to rehash long debunked garbage, your deep insightful replies amount to, and I quote:

"CAHP"

Oh yes, that certainly is a compelling argument against nearly 2 centuries worth of science.




Whoa there big fella! I'm not sure what refuted claims or denials or lies or 2 centuries of science that I deny that you are referring to. I am a firm believer in AGW, but if you can point out one of my comments that supports your claim, I'll be happy to retract said statement. As for CAHP, I defined that several weeks ago.
174. Gearsts
8:01 PM EDT on May 12, 2016
GFS still can't drop the weird fetish I see.....
Quoting 177. washingtonian115:

174. Gearsts
8:01 PM EDT on May 12, 2016
GFS still can't drop the weird fetish I see.....
And that's the upgraded GFS i think.
Quoting 168. OKsky:


CAHP! (jk... I don't even know what that means)
My credentials are not as impressive as yours, but to reinforce your point.... I hate conspiracy theories and other forms of magical thinking, have designed data warehouses in the private sector and data mining scares me a bit.


Maybe Louis happens to type like Carp? I know I type like carp.
Quoting 176. LouisPasteur:



Whoa there big fella! I'm not sure what refuted claims or denials or lies or 2 centuries of science that I deny that you are referring to. I am a firm believer in AGW, but if you can point out one of my comments that supports your claim, I'll be happy to retract said statement. As for CAHP, I defined that several weeks ago..

Not everyone is here when you are. I am curious, and google did not help.
Quoting 175. BaltimoreBrian:



Alex


OK, so TX will get Bonnie, Earl and Hermine. Hermine literally saved TX' bacon in 2011. We were just entering the 4-yr superdrought as she was making landfall, delivering 16" in Centex, giving us an aquifer buffer. Long live Hermine! please don't come back this year...
Can someone else make another post complaining about an acronym?

I don't think the previous 20 posts about it already just didn't quite capture how annoying it is..

On the weather front here, some wicked storms rolled through today in our area that included hail..

From the NWS, Wilmington, NC page.. Have a good rest of the night





Quoting 176. LouisPasteur:



. As for CAHP, I defined that several weeks ago.


I remember now, something about a hairball...
Quoting 185. IDTH:


I didn't get notice of a severe thunderstorm warning earlier when it looked bad. Was there one and I missed it?


Yes it was warned today :)..they were on the job today..also might have to do because that picture was taken right outside their offices..
Quoting 178. Gearsts:

And that's the upgraded GFS i think.
... so, first Twave of the season?
Quoting 187. BahaHurican:

... so, first Twave of the season?
Yeah! Where's the first Twave?
Quoting 170. BaltimoreBrian:

The Effects of Past Hurricane Experiences on Evacuation Intentions through Risk Perception and Efficacy Beliefs: A Mediation Analysis
Looks like an interesting read. I'll get into it on the weekend - more time then.
Quoting 189. Gearsts:

Yeah! Where's the first Twave?




Right where you said it was!
193. JRRP7

look at this
We need a nice big storm out in the Atlantic that does not impact any land masses.
Quoting 176. LouisPasteur:



Whoa there big fella! I'm not sure what refuted claims or denials or lies or 2 centuries of science that I deny that you are referring to. I am a firm believer in AGW, but if you can point out one of my comments that supports your claim, I'll be happy to retract said statement. As for CAHP, I defined that several weeks ago.
Thats ban talk. You better be careful.
199. OKsky
Quoting 197. SunnyDaysFla:

We need a nice big storm out in the Atlantic that does not impact any land masses.

Yeah, impacting land masses is for the weak.
Thanks to hanging out here I find myself excited about the hurricane season. Normally its not something I think about too much. I look forward to watching the banter.
Quoting 101. OKsky:



I don't know much about Maue, so I am assuming he denies AGW based on his comment.... perhaps he doesn't like some other aspect about Bill Nye..idk.
If that is the case, can anyone explain how you make the jump from "decrease in global TC activity" to "AGW isn't happening"? Doesn't that require ignoring a ton of other evidence? (rising CO2 levels, temps, water levels...etc) Or is there something more to that line of thought that I am missing?


The main issue Ryan Maue has with Bill Nye is, like some of the nutcases on the other side of AGW (Christopher Monckton, Bob Tisdale, Willis Eschenbach, etc.) he isn't qualified to talk about climate change &/or contrive bold claims wrt to it. The context of his comments on climate change, particularly those on social media regarding the recent tornado outbreak in the Great Plains were embarrassing. Look, if you want the most reliable information, current consensus on various phenomena on AGW, etc., listen to actual climate scientists & read literature...

Sifting through some of Maue's literature & having followed him for several years, it's fairly clear to me that Ryan doesn't deny climate change nor is attempting to become the "Laughingstock of climate change when he grows up", & he most certainly acknowledges anthropogenic forcing on large-scale climate & TC variability more so than some of his co-workers at weatherbell (Joe Bastardi & Joe D Aleo for ex). The literature he published pertains more so to inter-annual - interdecadal variability in global TC activity, which can be temporarily masked by &/or make long-term background signals in the climate system & anthropogenic forcing relatively indistinguishable from natural climate variability (AMO, PDO, ENSO].

Here are a few excerpts from the papers he's written or co-authored. You are free to make a judgement call for yourself, but this hardly sounds like someone who denies climate change...

Btw NA=North Atlantic
From his paper in 2009 "In addition to the potential role of global warming for the observed TC power increases in the NA [e.g., Emanuel, 2005], other potential climate factors posited have included the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) [e.g., Goldenberg et al., 2001], the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) [Kossin and Vimont, 2007], which is the leading mode of coupled- ocean atmosphere variability in the Atlantic, as well as the El Nin ̃o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [e.g., Gray, 1984; Landsea et al., 1998; Bell and Chelliah, 2006]"

"The compensatory or offsetting nature of ACE during the past three decades between the basins at least suggests a hypothesis that the modulation of AEW activity by large- scale climate variability is critically important in both basins" (he's referring to the Northeastern Pacific & North Atlantic)

"It is apparent that the global warming trend in low-frequency North Atlantic SSTs is exceptionally well correlated with the upward trending NA ACE from 1981–2007, which has been demonstrated by Emanuel [2005] for the NA MDR"

"To understand the evolution of TCs in a future climate, an adequate understanding of the mechanisms con- trolling current and past TC activity is critical to identifying exactly what features of climate will indeed change, especially in the Pacific basin [Vecchi and Soden, 2007a; Vecchi et al., 2008]. The evolution of NP SST signals may provide a fruitful area for further research into climate modulation of global TC variability."

From his 2011 paper...

"It is still a fundamental research question as to what are the atmosphere and ocean mechanisms responsible for the observed annual global TC frequency of ∼87 storms [Frank and Young, 2007]. With the upcoming IPCC AR5 assessment and associated CMIP5 climate simulations, it is critical to have the best possible diagnosis of periods of global TC inactivity and incorporate the recent pentad of historical lows into the context of natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability [Knutson et al., 2010]"

From the 2012 paper on "Historical Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls"

"The current consensus is that an anthropogenic signal in historical TC activity metrics cannot be conclusively identified independent of historically documented variability (Knutson et al. 2010)"

"While there is continued uncertainty surrounding future changes in climate (Knutson et al. 2010), current projections of TC frequency or intensity change may not yield an anthropogenic signal in economic loss data for many decades or even centuries (Crompton et al. 2011)."
On to the weather we haven't had any rain today and we thought the rain streak was over,however it looks like a small shower could spoil things with a little bit of thunder.If RNA gets at least a trace before 12:00 a.m it will be 16 days (tomorrow we have a 100 chance of rain)
203. OKsky
Quoting 200. Webberweather53:



The main issue Ryan Maue has with Bill Nye is.......

Wow thank you for that response!
I can't believe im going to say this like a typical marketing dbag, but Ryan Maue needs to work on his branding/web presence. He is on twitter calling one of the most outspoken and well known (for better or worse) proponents of science education a charlatan. Why wouldn't Ryan just send him a nice email pointing out what is wrong with his invalid claims? Why does he display such vitriol over it? Is Joe slipping him roids? =P (jk, of course)
Then on top of that when you go and google his name, Joe is all over the result pages. Im glad he is on the right side of the science and all, but yeesh.. have some web game.
Quoting 174. Gearsts:




More EAST please xD
Quoting 200. Webberweather53:



The main issue Ryan Maue has with Bill Nye is, like some of the nutcases on the other side of AGW (Christopher Monckton, Bob Tisdale, Willis Eschenbach, etc.) he isn't qualified to talk about climate change &/or contrive bold claims wrt to it. The context of his comments on climate change, particularly those on social media regarding the recent tornado outbreak in the Great Plains were embarrassing. Look, if you want the most reliable information, current consensus on various phenomena on AGW, etc., listen to actual climate scientists & read literature...

Sifting through some of Maue's literature & having followed him for several years, it's fairly clear to me that Ryan doesn't deny climate change nor is attempting to become the "Laughingstock of climate change when he grows up", & he most certainly acknowledges anthropogenic forcing on large-scale climate & TC variability more so than some of his co-workers at weatherbell (Joe Bastardi & Joe D Aleo for ex). The literature he published pertains more so to inter-annual - interdecadal variability in global TC activity, which can be temporarily masked by &/or make long-term background signals in the climate system & anthropogenic forcing relatively indistinguishable from natural climate variability (AMO, PDO, ENSO].

Here are a few excerpts from the papers he's written or co-authored. You are free to make a judgement call for yourself, but this hardly sounds like someone who denies climate change...

Btw NA=North Atlantic
From his paper in 2009 "In addition to the potential role of global warming for the observed TC power increases in the NA [e.g., Emanuel, 2005], other potential climate factors posited have included the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) [e.g., Goldenberg et al., 2001], the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) [Kossin and Vimont, 2007], which is the leading mode of coupled- ocean atmosphere variability in the Atlantic, as well as the El Nin ̃o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [e.g., Gray, 1984; Landsea et al., 1998; Bell and Chelliah, 2006]"

"The compensatory or offsetting nature of ACE during the past three decades between the basins at least suggests a hypothesis that the modulation of AEW activity by large- scale climate variability is critically important in both basins" (he's referring to the Northeastern Pacific & North Atlantic)

"It is apparent that the global warming trend in low-frequency North Atlantic SSTs is exceptionally well correlated with the upward trending NA ACE from 1981–2007, which has been demonstrated by Emanuel [2005] for the NA MDR"

"To understand the evolution of TCs in a future climate, an adequate understanding of the mechanisms con- trolling current and past TC activity is critical to identifying exactly what features of climate will indeed change, especially in the Pacific basin [Vecchi and Soden, 2007a; Vecchi et al., 2008]. The evolution of NP SST signals may provide a fruitful area for further research into climate modulation of global TC variability."

From his 2011 paper...

"It is still a fundamental research question as to what are the atmosphere and ocean mechanisms responsible for the observed annual global TC frequency of ∼87 storms [Frank and Young, 2007]. With the upcoming IPCC AR5 assessment and associated CMIP5 climate simulations, it is critical to have the best possible diagnosis of periods of global TC inactivity and incorporate the recent pentad of historical lows into the context of natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability [Knutson et al., 2010]"

From the 2012 paper on "Historical Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls"

"The current consensus is that an anthropogenic signal in historical TC activity metrics cannot be conclusively identified independent of historically documented variability (Knutson et al. 2010)"

"While there is continued uncertainty surrounding future changes in climate (Knutson et al. 2010), current projections of TC frequency or intensity change may not yield an anthropogenic signal in economic loss data for many decades or even centuries (Crompton et al. 2011)."

Great post.
Quoting 204. CaribBoy:



More EAST please xD
ghost storm.
Quoting 193. JRRP7:


look at this


its a start
too what well
we will see soon
air temps are rising 62.6 from 61.7 almost full degree in last half hr 62.8 now

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
ECMWF forecasting continued anomalously high pressure for the tropical and subtropical Atlantic for the next 10 days
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
@BigJoeBastardi Yes. Should put at least a temporary damper on tropical Atlantic anomalous warming.
Sunday through Thursday next week...The extended forecast is a
very challenging forecast which will be driven by short wave
troughs moving through the southern branch of the jet stream. The
first of these short waves may push through SE Texas Sunday night
into Monday. The ECMWF/Canadian models develop heavy rainfall over
much of the area while the GFS maintains scattered activity at
best. With more run to run consistency with the Canadian and
ECMWF, rain chances were increased to 50 percent for Sunday night
into Monday. Given the upper level support, deep moisture with
precip water values around 1.8 inches, and deep low level flow off
the Gulf, there still remains the potential for heavy rainfall
during this time. The details of the forecast are still rather
vague and hard to determine rainfall amounts at this time. The
point being that model runs will need to be re-evaluated each time
to get a better understanding of the heavy rainfall potential.


Why would this HGX forecaster trust the Canadian model? That one tends to develop ANYTHING into a major storm system and move it over Texas.
Quoting 156. bigwes6844:


Hey keep look at the loop current in the GOM in 05 no wonder why the storms was breeding off the GOM in 2005.


You're saying this will be a season just like 2005, the year of Katrina and Rita?
Quoting 203. OKsky:


Wow thank you for that response!
I can't believe im going to say this like a typical marketing dbag, but Ryan Maue needs to work on his branding/web presence. He is on twitter calling one of the most outspoken and well known (for better or worse) proponents of science education a charlatan. Why wouldn't Ryan just send him a nice email pointing out what is wrong with his invalid claims? Why does he display such vitriol over it? Is Joe slipping him roids? =P (jk, of course)
Then on top of that when you go and google his name, Joe is all over the result pages. Im glad he is on the right side of the science and all, but yeesh.. have some web game.


Ryan Maue has you completely bamboozled. He may cite references, but he definitely does not recognize it as being valid. He is quite careful with what he says, and the battles he picks, but his position is quite clear by his actions and words.
Quoting 213. pureet1948:



You're saying this will be a season just like 2005, the year of Katrina and Rita?

will never be another year like 2005
and we can only reference back
as too how similar it looks
but too say for sure it will be like 2005
we can't
we have to wait watch see
OKSky - I quoted you but that was not meant for you.
218. SLU
200. Webberweather53
2:04 AM GMT on May 13, 2016

I love your objectivity on this blog Webb. This is what we need to keep these irritating climate fear-mongers in line.
Quoting 218. SLU:

200. Webberweather53
2:04 AM GMT on May 13, 2016

I love your objectivity on this blog Webb. This is what we need to keep these irritating climate fear-mongers in line.


Fear mongering? What fear was invoked by my statement. Maue's position on Climate change invokes fear in you? As well it should.
Quoting 214. daddyjames:



Ryan Maue has you completely bamboozled. He may cite references, but he definitely does not recognize it as being valid. He is quite careful with what he says, and the battles he picks, but his position is quite clear by his actions and words.


? Why would he decide to go that far out of his way to supposedly "bamboozle" everyone let alone contrive new information wrt climate change when many of the observed consequences of climate change are already well established in a multitude of literature. Citation is entirely necessary.
Quoting 220. Webberweather53:



? Why would he decide to go that far out of his way to supposedly "bamboozle" everyone let alone contrive new information wrt climate change when many of the observed consequences of climate change are already well established in a multitude of literature. Citation is entirely necessary.


He doesn't. I did not say that he does. I did not say everyone . . .
Quoting 216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


will never be another year like 2005
and we can only reference back
as too how similar it looks
but too say for sure it will be like 2005
we can't
we have to wait watch see


Has there EVER been two reasonably EXACT years? I can't seem to think of any. They are all different.

Quoting 221. daddyjames:



He doesn't. I did not say that he does. I did not say everyone . . .


Quoting 214. daddyjames:



Ryan Maue has you completely bamboozled. He may cite references, but he definitely does not recognize it as being valid. He is quite careful with what he says, and the battles he picks, but his position is quite clear by his actions and words.
He definitely does not believe in AGW. If he did, he would not be able to post on WUWT and he would not be chums with othe prominent deniers. He is a wolf in sheep's clothing. He definitely plays on the other team. Either way, it matters not with me.

Edit: corrected an obvious mistake.
Quoting 221. daddyjames:



He doesn't. I did not say that he does. I did not say everyone . . .
Hello. Received your wumail. Here's my reply:
I used to think anticyclonic tornadoes were rare until I saw the ones I mentioned in blog comments to you already - on OK NWS surveys. That one day, two out of 55 is what? 4% off the top of my head. Plus three or four more. That's all I know. I enjoy reading NWS surveys after an outbreak. The anticyclonic ones get mentioned somewhere in the text. That's the only reason I know of the handful in OK since and including 2010 - I read the reports. That many in five years makes them non-rare in my view of the word, "rare."

Nothing against Ted Fujita, just wondering about the methods. Tornado data is not the best. Tornado data is incomplete and subjective, and subject to changes over the years, a biggee being NEXRAD funding in the early 1990s.

Might be an interesting research subject for someone, with proper asterisks in the data. If you're really interested in pinning down a percentage - which probably isn't possible. For example, when and how were anti-cyclonic tors discovered? How many surveyors across the US would actually recognize anticyclonic damage? - once again I suggest Greg Carbin at SPC as a contact. Part of his job is to organize tornado data.

Somehow my mind's connecting anticyclonic tors with cell splits because of what I observed of Monday's dryline storms from a distance. That's how my mind works. On to new things. Science changes daily.

Double N's - not relevant to my life.
Quoting 223. Webberweather53:






Ok - I did not say he has everyone bamboozled.
Quoting 224. daddyjames:

He definitely does not believe in AGW. If he did, he would not be able to post on WUWT and he would not be chums with othe prominent deniers. He is a wolf in sheep's going. He definitely plays on the other team. Either way, it matters not with me.


I'm going to make this short, sweet, and simple... Can you at least provide a shred of irrefutable evidence instead of conspiracy theorems? It's blatantly obvious from the literature he's written he's not a denier. I have yet to see him post on WUWT... What's wrong with being friends with deniers &/or alarmists?

He certainly seems friendly w/ Eric Holthaus who would be described by some to be an obvious "alarmist".

Ps. Ryan Maue is brilliant.
Quoting 225. Barefootontherocks:

Hello. Received your wumail. Here's my reply:
I used to think anticyclonic tornadoes were rare until I saw the ones I mentioned to you already on OK NWS surveys. That one day, two out of 55 is what? 4% off the top of my head. Plus three or four more. That's all I know. I enjoy reading NWS surveys after an outbreak. The anticyclonic ones get mentioned somewhere in the text. That's the only reason I know of the handful in OK since and including 2010 - I read the reports. That many in five years makes them non-rare in my view of the word, "rare."

Nothing against Ted Fujita, just wondering about the methods. Tornado data is not the best. Tornado data is incomplete and subjective, and subject to changes over the years, a biggee being NEXRAD funding in the early 1990s.

Might be an interesting research subject for someone, with proper asterisks in the data. If you're really interested in pinning down a percentage - which probably isn't possible. For example, when and how were anti-cyclonic tors discovered? How many surveyors across the US would actually recognize anticyclonic damage? - once again I suggest Greg Carbin at SPC as a contact. Part of his job is to organize tornado data.

Somehow my mind's connecting anticyclonic tors with cell splits because of what I observed of Monday's dryline storms from a distance. That's how my mind works. On to new things. Science changes daily.

Double N's - not relevant to my life.


Hey Barefoot. Fujita characterized the classification of anticyclonic tornadoes over that time period from the data collected on the damage patterns. Pretty interesting reading it. Also, he predicted that anticyclones they could potentially form from his theoretical prediction/modeling of bow echos in right-moving storms - but as I said - that is beyond my level of understanding.

I think that since 1976, about 10-12 anticyclones have been noted (based on preliminary scans of the reports and a couple references]. Of course there may be more, as they are either characterized from direct observations or from damage patterns. As they are generally weaker and short-lived, any anticyclone that is F0 would easily be missed (little to no damage).

I forgot to mention, in left-moving supercells (east-to-west movement) the circulation in the thunderstorm is anticyclonic naturally and anticyclonic tornadoes can form from them.

So there are different mechanisms for generating anticyclones. What I find particularly interesting, although again my knowledge is limited, is the the mechanism forming waterspouts is different and appears to form anticyclonic rotation easier than supercells (dominated by the rotating mesocyclone).

Either way, Oklahoma can brag at being the anticyclone capital of the world! I believe more have been documented here than elsewhere.
Quoting 227. Webberweather53:



I'm going to make this short, sweet, and simple... Can you at least provide a shred of irrefutable evidence instead of conspiracy theorems? It's blatantly obvious from the literature he's written he's not a denier. I have yet to see him post on WUWT... What's wrong with being friends with deniers &/or alarmists?

He certainly seems friendly w/ Eric Holthaus who would be described by some to be an obvious "alarmist".




I made no statement regarding his forecasting abilities. that is not relevant to his position on climate change. He is a great forecaster. And people can have different positions/disagreements and still be friends/colleagues.

Edit: If he believed in the evidence supporting AGW, he would not be allowed to post on WUWT.
* Shrinking shorebird pays the bill for rapid Arctic warming :
"Shrinkage of animal body size has just recently been discovered, but is already considered a universal response to climate change as it is observed across a broad range of animal taxa."

* Understanding tiny droplets can make for better weather forecasts - Terradaily.com
It turns out that the water cycle and precipitation are among the largest uncertainties in current climate models. "We have now figured out a new piece of the puzzle. This piece can be used in climate models and weather forecasts to improve our understanding - not only of how the weather will be like tomorrow, but also of how weather and climate will evolve in the future."

* 32 million face hunger in drought-hit southern Africa, says the UN :
Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique have all issued drought alerts in recent months, as thousands of cattle die, reservoirs are depleted and harvests fail. South Africa describes the drought as its worst in more than 100 years, while in neighbouring Namibia Coca-Cola announced that it will stop production of all canned drinks in the country because of a water shortage. "There are already an estimated 32 million food-insecure people in the southern Africa region, largely as a result of drought which led to poor harvests last year," the UN's World Food Programme (WFP) said in its latest report. "There have been a lot of disruptions in the season as a result of El Nino coming on the back of a poor harvest from the previous season," WFP regional food security analyst Andrew Odero told a news conference in Johannesburg. Dam levels were also "much lower" than at the same time last year at the beginning of the dry season and countries which depend on hydro-power could face blackouts, he said. "Zimbabwe is one of the most hard hit," said Eddie Rowe, the country director for WFP.


Wow
229. daddyjames
4:31 AM GMT on May 13, 2016
"I forgot to mention, in left-moving supercells (east-to-west movement) the circulation in the thunderstorm is anticyclonic naturally and anticyclonic tornadoes can form from them."

The way I learned it, left moving does not mean "moving east to west."
Left-moving is a northerly turn, ENE or N. Right-moving an easterly turn. E or ESE depending on storm motion to begin with. NE or E

I watched a splitting cell, one in the dryline position to be the cell that caused the Katie to Wynnewood EF4 Monday. By track, this same cell touched down again. My observation, put together with the tracks, tells me the splitting right-moving piece produced the Sulphur EF3 and the splitting left-moving piece set down the anti-cyclonic EF1. That's where I am connecting cell splits with left-moving and anti-cyclonic. Now, if this is already a proven theory, hey, I came to the same conclusion by putting two and two together - what my eyes saw the storm clouds doing, and what the surveyors found on the ground.

Add: Of course it could all be hockey pucks.
This isn't, though. A real video of a real anticyclonic tornado in Colorado, June 5, 2015
Sexy!
235. OKsky
Quoting 217. daddyjames:

OKSky - I quoted you but that was not meant for you.

I understood. Im checking out more of his twitter feed. He seems to acknowledge AGW as a real thing so thats good at least, however he also obviously has some issues. The only tactic he has is to call people alarmists as in "yeah AGW is real... but don't worry about it", All without citing anything to back up his opinion... of course it is just twitter, so that is to be expected. (not that it just being twitter will stop rubes from reposting them everywhere) Ryan's climadrogyny (yes thats a nod to just simply cahping up whatever words I want) is probably a direct result of the cognitive dissonance he must have to deal with everyday.
This is it... Arctic region's positive temp anomaly just passed 3 C (GFS). Some big icicles are gonna melt up there. Anyways, that is small fish, compared to what the GFS tells us could happen in about a week :

After having spent several days around 4 C, regional temperature anomaly hits a ridiculous 5 C...
sure glad i missed all the ranting of last night. some of the characters reminds me of the bullys i put up with in high school. the last laugh is far from over.
continued heavy moisture in the eastern carib. meanwhile the western carib.s waters are getting warmer and warmer. around may 30 look for a seed to come out of the eastern carib and move over the warm waters of the western carib. good luck all this hurricane season.
Ssts Are warmer in the western Carib because the sea is bombarded all day with direct sunlight due to no cloud cover at all.

You can send any seed you want the shear over here will tear it apart. Not much has changed. I watch the few daytime heating buildups struggle to get past 20k it just isn't happening. It will be October November for a bit of rain.

Quoting 239. islander101010:

continued heavy moisture in the eastern carib. meanwhile the western carib.s waters are getting warmer and warmer. around may 30 look for a seed to come out of the eastern carib and move over the warm waters of the western carib. good luck all this hurricane season.
This is becoming the norm for our summers.....it's becoming so arid here the salinity in the water table is changing
Quoting 210. Gearsts:


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
ECMWF forecasting continued anomalously high pressure for the tropical and subtropical Atlantic for the next 10 days
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
@BigJoeBastardi Yes. Should put at least a temporary damper on tropical Atlantic anomalous warming.
The Rainy Season is about to begin across the FL Penisula. Very good chance that Orlando surpasses 20" for the year going into June which would be a record for any January to May time frame.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016


.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...
Mid level shortwave trough moving across the eastern CONUS will
turn the flow aloft locally to weakly cyclonic. The atmosphere
will moisten ahead of this feature and the associated frontal
trough, while forecast soundings show weakening of low-mid level
cap. Still, the models continue to be conservative on precip
generation. Think that with low-mid levels acquiring a westerly
wind component, chance PoPs look good over much of the eastern
side of the peninsula where the east/west coast sea breezes
interact late in the afternoon and evening. Do not plan much
change to the previous PoPs. It`s not out of the question that
with max temps near 90 and 500 mb temps around minus 10C, that a
few of the storms could become strong with frequent lightning
strikes and gusty winds 40-50 mph.

Mon-Thu...
The post frontal continental ridge will push into the W Atlc on Mon
and eventually will merge with the Atlc Ridge. Prevailing H100-H70
flow will shift to the E/SE early in the week...then to the S/SE by
midweek. These winds will tap tropical/subtropical moisture that in
turn will steadily modify the dry post frontal airmass.

Slight chc of tsras thru Tue as the modification process will have
have to overcome mean H85-H50 dew point depressions btwn 20-30C. By
midweek...however...S/SE winds will pull sufficient mid lvl moisture
into central FL to push precip chances back into the chc range...
30/40pct on Wed and 40/50pct on Thu...a strong sign that the dry
season is coming to an end. Nothing noteworthy about the source
region..
.expect temps will be within 5F of climo avgs.
Quoting 219. daddyjames:



Fear mongering? What fear was invoked by my statement. Maue's position on Climate change invokes fear in you? As well it should.


Speaking of nut cases. Ryan Maue is a very respected met in the field. What Ryan does is present facts on what is actually happening. Its not like he's giving falsified information like many in the Scientific Community.
wait a couple weeks 19n
Quoting 233. Barefootontherocks:

229. daddyjames
4:31 AM GMT on May 13, 2016
"I forgot to mention, in left-moving supercells (east-to-west movement) the circulation in the thunderstorm is anticyclonic naturally and anticyclonic tornadoes can form from them."

The way I learned it, left moving does not mean "moving east to west."
Left-moving is a northerly turn, ENE or N. Right-moving an easterly turn. E or ESE depending on storm motion to begin with. NE or E

I watched a splitting cell, one in the dryline position to be the cell that caused the Katie to Wynnewood EF4 Monday. By track, this same cell touched down again. My observation, put together with the tracks, tells me the splitting right-moving piece produced the Sulphur EF3 and the splitting left-moving piece set down the anti-cyclonic EF1. That's where I am connecting cell splits with left-moving and anti-cyclonic. Now, if this is already a proven theory, hey, I came to the same conclusion by putting two and two together - what my eyes saw the storm clouds doing, and what the surveyors found on the ground.

Add: Of course it could all be hockey pucks.
This isn't, though. A real video of a real anticyclonic tornado in Colorado, June 5, 2015


Only using the terminology presented in the paper/information regarding east-to-west storms. Thanks for pointing that out - I think one of the papers was document ing a storm that was moving west of north, so I may have misunderstood the terminology. Pretty cool that you got to see it, as you observed something that does not occur very often.
Quoting 243. StormTrackerScott:



Speaking of nut cases. Ryan Maue is a very respected met in the field. What Ryan does is present facts on what is actually happening. Its not like he's giving falsified information like many on here on in the Scientific Community.


Please do name names, I never liked vague attacks,
Quoting 243. StormTrackerScott:



Speaking of nut cases. Ryan Maue is a very respected met in the field. What Ryan does is present facts on what is actually happening. Its not like he's giving falsified information like many on here on in the Scientific Community.


I don't think Ryan Maue would appreciate being called a nutcase.
Ryan Maue is a well-respected met in the field, as well he should be. What his stance is on climate change again is not relevant to his forecasting ability, nor does it diminish his forecasts for the weather.

Quoting 235. OKsky:


I understood. Im checking out more of his twitter feed. He seems to acknowledge AGW as a real thing so thats good at least, however he also obviously has some issues. The only tactic he has is to call people alarmists as in "yeah AGW is real... but don't worry about it", All without citing anything to back up his opinion... of course it is just twitter, so that is to be expected. (not that it just being twitter will stop rubes from reposting them everywhere) Ryan's climadrogyny (yes thats a nod to just simply cahping up whatever words I want) is probably a direct result of the cognitive dissonance he must have to deal with everyday.


The term for those who think AGW is real, but disregard the social, political, and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption is "Lukewarmer". They suffer from the same motivated reasoning as those who deny climate change and global warming, a ideological blind spot due to strict free market adherence which often manifests as a politically right stance.
Good Morning Folks.  The Conus outlook for today and current look:

I think the big story for today is the heat (like Summer is already here) for a large swatch of the US.................................

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

i really dont think the april may water temps of the central atlantic will matter much in aug. sept. the water still has three months to do what it is going to do. plenty of sunshine headed its way.
The SSEC Sal page was down yesterday but up again; back to typical levels for May with the wax and wain over the summer but will note that the African waves are looking pretty healthy this early in the year so far:




Link to some great research on rain patterns in the US as related to soil moisture; very interesting stuff. Makes me think about the daily Summer boomers in Florida set off by all the moisture in July and August (available from the Everglades and swampy regions/lakes in the spine of South and Central Florida):

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/soil-moist ure-alters-next-day-rainfall-united-states


The effect depends on where you live. In the West, the feedback is positive: Wet soils increase the chance of a next-day downpour, and dry soils diminish that chance. But east of the Mississippi River, the feedback flips: Wet soils lower the likelihood of rainfall, and dry soils raise it. Why? Rainfall, in general, depends on two things: moisture and daytime heat that create rising, raincloud-producing updrafts. In the sunny, arid West, there is plenty of heat but limited moisture, and so a process called moisture recycling is at work; todays storms supply the water that evaporates into tomorrows rainclouds. But in the east, moisture abounds, and the sun's energy often goes into evaporating it. This keeps damper regions cool. Rare dry patches are the ones that can heat up enough to form rainclouds. The study, published today inScience, used 9 years of soil moisture data from NASA's venerable Aqua satellite along with data from a network of rain gauges
255. JRRP7
Bangladesh lightning death toll rises to 35
The lightning that accompanied the seasonal nor'wester storms claimed the highest eight lives in northwestern Pabna, five each in neighbouring Sirajganj and Rajshahi districts.
By: PTI | Dhaka | Published:May 13, 2016 10:11 am
The death toll from lightning in Bangladesh on Friday rose to 35, including children and women, as thundershowers struck Dhaka and other parts of the country after a week of scorching heat, officials said today. Meteorological office said a much-waited downpour brought with it thundershowers in 14 districts including Dhaka.
The lightning that accompanied the seasonal nor'wester storms claimed the highest eight lives in northwestern Pabna, five each in neighbouring Sirajganj and Rajshahi districts. Four persons died in Kishoreganj and Brahmanbarhia each, reports said.
In Dhaka, sudden thunderbolts killed two engineering students when they were playing football in the rain. Seven more deaths were reported from other parts of the country. The casualties included a number of children who were playing in open grounds during the rain but mostly the victims were farmers, including women, who were in their fields. ...

Whole article see link above.

Fortunately not as deadly as in Bangladesh: currently there are a lot thunderstorms with hail in central Europe as well (even decent rain in my town Mainz):
Quoting 248. Naga5000:



The term for those who think AGW is real, but disregard the social, political, and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption is "Lukewarmer". They suffer from the same motivated reasoning as those who deny climate change and global warming, a ideological blind spot due to strict free market adherence which often manifests as a politically right stance.
In a lot of ways this stance is worse than outright denial. It's completely immoral to say that changes are happening, but don't worry, we're going to be okay... What about the others around the globe?


The Florida Rain Machine

I have heard many people say that they can set their watch by the time it rains every summer afternoon in Florida. While this is an exaggeration, the daily and seasonal rainfall in east central Florida do have a somewhat rhythmical nature.


The timing and distribution of daily showers and lightning storms during the summer months is most closely tied to the north/south migration of the "Bermuda" high pressure ridge. The position of this ridge controls the low level wind flow and dictates where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes collide each day. This collision often produces widespread storms with frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. I have heard this dynamic feature referred to as the "Florida Rain Machine." The regularity with which it occurs is also the main reason that the inland area between Tampa and Cape Canaveral is often called the "Lightning Capital of the United States."

While you can usually count on the afternoon cloud buildups during the summer months, it's a different story during the cooler season in east central Florida. Rainfall is much less frequent, sometimes only occurring a few times during a whole month. This seasonal change is really quite simple to explain. Ask any resident of the state and they will certainly know that the humidity is much lower during the cool season. This lack of moisture is reflected in the virtual absence of the "Florida Rain Machine." Rainfall during this time of the year is primarily associated with cold and warm fronts that oscillate across the area.

The Rainy Season.
So when does this "Rainy Season" begin? Everyone who has lived here or visited here can tell you that it is hot and humid during the summer with frequent showers and lightning storms. Many will be able to tell you that June through September are the wettest months.

In a classic start to the rainy season, there would be a noticeable return of humidity during the latter part of May. I can remember a few of these years when my first reaction to going outdoors was "yuck." Once this higher humidity (dew points 70 degrees or higher) arrived, there would usually be an increase of showers and lightning storms within a few days.

Of course there are years when the rainy season onset occurs in early May, or holds off until well into the month of June. The highly changeable year of 1998 saw the onset of the true rainy season during the first week of July. When you eliminate the extremes and concentrate on trying to find a "typical" year, the third or fourth week of May stands out as the most common start for the rainy season.

The Dry Season.
When does the "Dry (or cooler) Season begin? First of all, in order for the frequency of rainfall to decrease, the humidity must decrease. This occurs when a cold front passes through and brings with it some drier air. Many people will recognize this as the first time that they can turn off their air conditioner and open the windows. In most years, this happens by the middle of October.

However, just as the onset of the Rainy Season can be quite fickle, the same can be said for the start of our Dry Season. In many years, the first cool fronts will be short-lived and moisture will return after several dry days. This might lead to a temporary restart of the "Florida Rain Machine." Tropical systems can also result in significant amounts of rainfall throughout October and into November.


So if we get a nice refreshing air mass into the area on the first of October, be wary, because you will usually need those air conditioners again. However, just as winter cold snaps usually last only a few days in the Florida peninsula, the return of humidity during the Dry Season is intermittent and not long lasting.

What the Data Shows.
Looking at more than 50 years of temperature and rainfall data from the Daytona Beach and Orlando airports, the median date for the start of the Wet and Dry Seasons was determined. Note that the "median" is simply "the middle of the road." Half of the data is before and half of it is after.

The median date for the beginning of the Rainy Season in Daytona Beach is May 27, while in Orlando it is May 24.

The median date for the beginning of the Dry Season is October 15 for both Daytona Beach and Orlando.

There was not enough data available for this study to determine the onset of the wet and dry seasons in Melbourne, Vero Beach, Fort Pierce and Stuart. However a study done by the National Weather Service Office in Miami found that the average rainy season in southeast Florida extends from May 21 to October 16. This allows for an estimation of the start of the wet and dry seasons over the southern half of east central Florida.

The approximate start of the wet season in Melbourne and Vero Beach is May 23, while the start of the dry season is October 15.

The approximate start of the wet season in Fort Pierce and Stuart is May 22, while the start of the dry season is October 16.

More detailed information about this study can be found at: www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=wetdryseason

Randy Lascody
Senior Forecaster
Randy.Lascody@noaa.gov
Nice fire near Madrid. It appears someone intentionally set it up.
madrid tyre fire
In 2014, our rainy season here in Fort Myers didn't start until the second week in July.

That's very unusual since our normal June precipitation is 10.09" (one of the highest precipitation averages in the state for June).
248. Naga5000
12:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2016
"The term for those who think AGW is real, but disregard the social, political, and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption is "Lukewarmer""

Many AGW activists disregard or even "deny" the same.
Quoting 245. daddyjames:



Only using the terminology presented in the paper/information regarding east-to-west storms...(snip)
Thanks for the discussion.
Have a good Friday the 13th.
Quoting 262. Barefootontherocks:

248. Naga5000
12:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2016
"The term for those who think AGW is real, but disregard the social, political, and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption is "Lukewarmer""

Many AGW activists disregard or even "deny" the same.


Yes they do. An abrupt shift from oil/gas - fossil fuels - would lead to undue economic and political instability in the US and the MidEast, as well as other regions of the world.
But, if the climate is changing - we are going to have to change too - don't you think?
Quoting 263. Barefootontherocks:

Thanks for the discussion.
Have a good Friday the 13th.


Ugh. thankfully I am not that superstitious. You too.
Quoting 262. Barefootontherocks:

248. Naga5000
12:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2016
"The term for those who think AGW is real, but disregard the social, political, and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption is "Lukewarmer""

Many AGW activists disregard or even "deny" the same.


Examples?
Quoting 264. daddyjames:



Yes they do. An abrupt shift from oil/gas - fossil fuels - would lead to undue economic and political instability in the US and the MidEast, as well as other regions of the world.
But, if the climate is changing - we are going to have to change too - don't you think?


I don't know of many or any that promote a complete shift immediately. Experts recognize the need for weaning, whereas experts in contrarian climate often reject adaption and mitigation outrignt. Those topics are debatable, but only the action, not whether we should take action.

Edit: autocorrect is kicking my but this morning. Sorry for all the typos.
Quoting 261. Sfloridacat5:

In 2014, our rainy season here in Fort Myers didn't start until the second week in July.

That's very unusual since our normal June precipitation is 10.09" (one of the highest precipitation averages in the state for June).


According to all the models it appears our Rainy Season begins next week. The Rainy Season can sometimes start in mid May.
Quoting 262. Barefootontherocks:

248. Naga5000
12:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2016
"The term for those who think AGW is real, but disregard the social, political, and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption is "Lukewarmer""

Many AGW activists disregard or even "deny" the same.


On a side note, BF, the literature has found no evidence linking motivated reasoning with acceptance of AGW and the need for mitigation and adaption. The biggest predictor of this view is a favorable view of science and scientists and an acknowledgement of consensus. You may be picking nits here and conflating the debate between how to mitigate and adapt with whether we should mitigate or adapt. The first is where the actual scientific and policy debate occurs the latter is a form of science denial.
Quoting 267. Naga5000:



I don't know of many or any that promote a complete shift immediately. Experts recognize the need for weaning, whereas experts in climate often reject adaption and mitigation outrignt. Those topics are debatable, but only the action, not wetter we should take action.

I do.
The alternative is even worse.

Saudi could've provided the world with solar. It did not. Let it rot.
@269. Naga5000
2:02 PM GMT on May 13, 2016

Motivated reasoning? Is that a fancy term for "one's own agenda"?

Naga. Not picking nots (or nits, lol), etc. nor am I confused. Not at all. Trying to get you and others (for example) to admit there are social, political and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption. Not only aspects, but consequences to rapid discontinuation of fossil fuel use that require consideration. No ulterior motive here. You kind of walked into that one with the words you chose: "social, political and economic aspects of mitigation."

Have a good Fiday the 13th.
Quoting 255. JRRP7:




I give Gro til 10AM to blobify this. I know he saw it first; he's just waiting on a scat to verify. Early low-rider with no SAL in the way, heading to a het-up CAR.
Quoting 271. Barefootontherocks:

@269. Naga5000
2:02 PM GMT on May 13, 2016

Motivated reasoning? Is that a fancy term for "one's own agenda"?

Naga. Not picking nots (or nits, lol), etc. nor am I confused. Not at all. Trying to get you and others (for example) to admit there are social, political and economic aspects of mitigation and adaption. Not only aspects, but consequences to rapid discontinuation of fossil fuel use that require consideration. No ulterior motive here. You kind of walked into that one with the words you chose: "social, political and economic aspects of mitigation."

Have a good Fiday the 13th.


I am quite aware of them, thanks. I don't need any reminders from the gallery. If you are unaware of the terminology used in discussion of this issue, I suggest a primer before engaging. Thanks, as always.

Edit: I didn't walk into anything, the issue of mitigation and adaption is where the debate is. What we were talking about is those who deny the need to mitigate or adapt. Those are science deniers who reject the consequences of AGW. Plain and simple. You seem to not be able to differentiate between the two concepts this morning.
GW is a scientific fact and the best course of action at this point is to mitigate as much as possible to try to avoid hitting the 4 degree overall increase mark (if we can avoid it), along with adaptation in the form of reducing greenhouse gasses and transitioning slowly away from fossil fuels towards cleaner and renewable energy. Just noting that this will take several decades to accomplish, and political will across the board, but it will not happen overnight. In terms of "activists", they are on both sides of the fence; deniers (both individual and corporate) and believers (following the scientific consensus) but probably do more harm than good, just essentially hurling insults at each other. This is going to take global cooperation at the end of the day and not as easy as Green Peace protesters out on boats and dingys blocking whaling ships on the high seas and the ship captains firing warning shots...................Just Sayin.



Quoting 274. weathermanwannabe:

GW is a scientific fact and the best course of action at this point is to mitigate as much as possible to try to avoid hitting the 4 degree overall increase mark (if we can avoid it), along with adaptation in the form of reducing greenhouse gasses and transitioning slowly away from fossil fuels towards cleaner and renewable energy. Just noting that this will take several decades to accomplish, and political will across the board, but it will not happen overnight. In terms of "activists", they are on both sides of the fence; deniers (both individual and corporate) and believers (following the scientific consensus) but probably do more harm than good, just essentially hurling insults at each other. This is going to take global cooperation at the end of the day and not as easy as Green Peace protesters out on boats and dingys blocking whaling ships on the high seas and the ship captains firing warning shots...................Just Sayin.





We do not have decades.
That used to be.
Quoting 275. cRRKampen:


We do not have decades.
That used to be.


You may be right; looking more and more like we have passed the tipping point and the ship is sinking.............
Quoting 272. redwagon:



I give Gro til 10AM to blobify this. I know he saw it first; he's just waiting on a scat to verify. Early low-rider with no SAL in the way, heading to a het-up CAR.
It will poof but is still impressive for the time of year.
Unfortunately, a turbulent weather pattern may move back into the region next Tuesday and persist for at least a couple days. The pattern has all the hallmarks of what we’ve experienced the past two to three weeks: A storm track running straight through the area and a stalled frontal boundary creating frequent opportunities for showers.
People of D.C begged for rain so I guess its nature's way of giving back.However this may come in handy come July which is one of our driest months so that in case we are very dry the plant won't take a substantial hit like in past years.
Good thing its not August of else the wave may have had a chance but I do think its a precursor of things to come later down the road.Could be one of those years a wave comes off in July and we end up getting development in the MDR region unlike the last few years.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 277. weathermanwannabe:



You may be right; looking more and more like we have passed the tipping point and the ship is sinking.............

That is my conviction.
It even means a full stop to ghg-emissions today will not avert the mass extinction disaster since CO2 sinks seem to be clogging up, besides which the CO2 doesn't vanish in any short time anyway. Being past the tipping point means being past it, no matter what.
It will fluctuate between now and August but Africa looks poised to produce a healthy wave train season; whether they develop into actual hurricanes before reaching the Antilles (with several past seasons of struggling tropical storms across the Central Atlantic MDR) is the big question for this year I think:

Satellite ImageSatellite Image
Quoting 272. redwagon:



I give Gro til 10AM to blobify this. I know he saw it first; he's just waiting on a scat to verify. Early low-rider with no SAL in the way, heading to a het-up CAR.


Looks like a blob, but most likely one of the early waves which are quite common starting this time of year. Most fizzle, and are usually robbed of strong thunderstorms, which I call "bloberry". I saw this feature a few days ago while still over Africa. I always wait to see other conditions. I don't want to be known as the old man who cried blob.

Quoting 284. Grothar:



Looks like a blob, but most likely one of the early waves which are quite common starting this time of year. Most fizzle, and are usually robbed of strong thunderstorms, which I call "bloberry". I saw this feature a few days ago while still over Africa. I always wait to see other conditions. I don't want to be known as the old man who cried blob.




It does look impressive now - especially for May. I wouldn't be surprised if it is void of thunderstorms within 48 hours.
Quoting 273. Naga5000:



I am quite aware of them, thanks. I don't need any reminders from the gallery. If you are unaware of the terminology used in discussion of this issue, I suggest a primer before engaging. Thanks, as always.

Edit: I didn't walk into anything, the issue of mitigation and adaption is where the debate is. What we were talking about is those who deny the need to mitigate or adapt. Those are science deniers who reject the consequences of AGW. Plain and simple. You seem to not be able to differentiate between the two concepts this morning.


While there are other pretenders to the CAHP throne, you are the undisputed emperor of the CAHP kingdom.
287. OKsky
Quoting 286. LouisPasteur:



While there are other pretenders to the CAHP throne, you are the undisputed emperor of the CAHP kingdom.


We should all get catchphrases like its a cheezy 80's sitcom! Cowabunga dude!