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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

April Fools weather humor; all-time March warmth in WY, NE

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:41 PM GMT on April 01, 2012

I don't have an April Fools blog post for you this year, but instead thought I share with you two of the funniest weather-related stories of the year. Firstly, it turns out that you don't need to be a human to enjoy a little snowboarding. The snowy conditions in Russia this winter gave the opportunity for an intrepid crow to take up the sport in this remarkable Youtube video. I found the video over at Andy Revkin's DotEarth blog at the New York Times. The bird is a hooded crow, and has evidently been doing quite a bit of snowboarding, judging by the multiple tracks on the rooftop. Too bad us humans can't use a flap-assist from our wings while snowboarding, it might cut down on injuries!


Video 1. A crow in Russia goes snowboarding on a snow-covered rooftop.

The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman
I've done a lot of talks about the weather to schools, and have gotten hundreds of thank-you letters from the kids afterwards. But I've never gotten a letter quite like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon in Austin, Texas recently received after talking at a local school. A sampling:

"Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns."

And this: "Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you're more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames."


Check out the letter here.

Finally, realclimate.org has a funny April Fool's blog post today called ‘Wrong sign paradox’ finally resolved?

All-time March warmth records in Wyoming, Nebraska
Most of Wyoming and much of Nebraska set or tied their record for all-time warmest March temperatures yesterday, no fooling. A strong ridge of high pressure that generated a strong flow of warm air from the southwest was responsible. Some of the records included:

Omaha, NE: 91°F
Lincoln, NE: 91°F
Casper, WY: 77°F
Lander, WY: 76°F
Rock Spring, WY: 72°F
Worland, WY: 81°F
Laramie, WY: 71°F
Rawlins, WY: 73°F
Chadron, WY: 83°F
Sidney, WY: 83°F

Jeff Masters

Humor Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the smiles, Dr. Jeff!
thanks doc happy first day of april

the kids story scares me i hope its just a story

have a great day
1090 presslord: Rogue wave sidebar: Until the last 30 years or so, they were thought to be simply the stuff of sailor's imaginative lore.....relatively recent satellite technology has been able to document the reality of this phenomenon...

Same thing is true about red sprites. So rarely seen that even the pilots who saw them were surprised at how true their tradecraft "folk tales" were. And even rarer were reports from the ground.

Due to timing nearly coincident to LARGE lightning bolts, the comparatively dim red light of the overwhelmingly vast majority of sprites were missed entirely, washed out of vision and photos by the temporary flash-blindness caused by the bright white lightning.
It was only after '87 that scientists began photographing and studying the phenomenum, and that techniques leading to deliberate capture of sprite images on film were developed.
Happy New Year!

The Iowa supercells on Thursday gave snow and hail to places as far as Michigan, the Niagara Peninsula and upstate New York Saturday.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Happy New Year!

The Iowa supercells on Thursday gave snow and hail to places as far as Michigan, the Niagara Peninsula and upstate New York Saturday.


what??
I decided to get rid of this April Fool's joke. Sorry for posting it in the first place for people who were enraged by it.
Thanks Dr. Masters

Haven't heard much news about how Vietnam fared with Pakhar...

Thanks Dr. Masters....good morning to all again
Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espaol*)
645 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion
805 AM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

Eastern Pacific (out to 140W)
Tropical Weather Outlook
400 PM PST WED NOV 30 2011 Tropical Weather Discussion
1605 UTC SUN APR 01 2012

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
*Spanish translations courtesy of the NWS San Juan Weather Forecast Office


1069 aspectre: Good news: a recently discovered colony of penguins has undergone uniquely rapid evolution to adapt to ClimateChange caused by AnthropogenicGlobalWarming.

1070 GeoffreyWPB: Good news indeed!

What I wanna know is how the penguins were able to so quickly arrive at the conclusion that Man was to blame for the Warming phenomena.
Quoting Ameister12:
What do we have here?

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AMEISTER12

Very funny!
Quoting Ameister12:
What do we have here?

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AMEISTER12


Unexpected!
New Offshore Waters Forecast Zones

The Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch (TAFB) of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center
will begin producing gridded offshore waters forecasts through the use of the AWIPS
Gridded Forecast Editor (GFE) for the Caribbean Sea, the southwest and tropical North
Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, effective 1800 UTC (2 p.m. EDT) on April 3,
2012.
In addition, nine forecasts zones currently covering the TAFB area of responsibility will
be subdivided into thirty-two zones. The smaller zones will result in more concise and
areal specific forecasts for the marine community. These two additions represent the
most significant changes in TAFB's marine program since the unit acquired marine
forecast responsibilities in 1988.
“This will be a culmination of nearly five years of planning and executing a vision of
producing gridded marine forecasts over large forecast domains,” said Hugh Cobb,
Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch. “Many individuals played a key role
in carrying out this vision. I am very proud that TAFB has taken the lead in this effort.”
Through the production of gridded marine forecasts in GFE, a forecaster can provide
high resolution forecasts for many weather parameters. While this has already been
done in the U.S. coastal waters zones, basin-wide gridded forecasts are a new
challenge in the AWIPS/GFE environment for national marine centers due to the large
areal coverage.
NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center and the National Weather Service forecast office in
Honolulu, Hawaii, are expected to introduce gridded marine forecasts soon.
Who was it that said,.."there's one born every minute?"


$$
FORECASTER AMEISTER12
That heat blob continues today before fading out overt he next week (in fact, a week from now temperatures across the United States will be as close to normal as they have been for nearly an entire month). Today's high temperature anomalies):

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
TROPICALANALYSTWX13 HOME WILMINGTON NC
1200 PM EST SUN APR 1 2012

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1200 PM UNTIL 800 PM EST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 100 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER
CNTRL KY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR OF INTENSIFYING
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THOUGH REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ERN
ENVELOPE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INDICATES A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF
NRN-MOST SUPERCELLS INTO A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4.0 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...TROPICALANALYSTWX13

I'm doomed! D=

Lol. Good one.
got to stop with the fake weather warnings before ya give some old lady a heart attack or something
Yeah, that's about as cool as Mayo in the face..
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1014 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115 -118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770 -775-021000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1014 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012 /914 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

$$

BARRY/GODSEY
I always get a kick out of Dr. Master's April Fools blog.

This one from 2010 is my favorite of his.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
TROPICALANALYSTWX13 HOME WILMINGTON NC
1200 PM EST SUN APR 1 2012

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1200 PM UNTIL 800 PM EST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 100 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER
CNTRL KY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR OF INTENSIFYING
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THOUGH REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ERN
ENVELOPE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INDICATES A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF
NRN-MOST SUPERCELLS INTO A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4.0 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...TROPICALANALYSTWX13

I Hope tropicalanalystwx13 is seeking shelter
Omaha, NE: 91°F
Lincoln, NE: 91°F
...You gotta be April Foolin' me,
it's only April, not August!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
got to stop with the fake weather warnings before ya give some old lady a heart attack or something

I doubt somebody would believe those considering no where in my post does it mention the official NWS/SPC :)
Welcome to the New Earth, brought to you by Big Energy and "us" overall.





000
WTNT42 KNHC 312039
TCDAT2

MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 100
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1002012
1200 PM EST SUN APR 1 2012

…...MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS IS THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE EVER TO FORM IN ANY BASIN..... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 500MPH....GUSTING TO 550MPH. PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 652MB..... ANYONE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM PREPARE TO BE ROUNDHOUSE KICKED BY THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE THING ON THE PLANET EVER...CHUCK NORRIS...........

....DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN AT
495 MPH..BUT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 500 MPH
FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOTHING CAN STOP THIS INCREDIBLE STORM...SO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.......... NOTHING ANYWHERE NEAR CHUCK NORRIS CAN CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.......AND AGAIN, NOTHING INHIBITS
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS MONSTER STORM............NOTHING CAN STOP CHUCK NORRIS EXCEPT ANOTHER CHUCK NORRIS......... ALL OF THE
GLOBAL COMPUTER FORECASTING MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS AND NAM...HAVE REFUSED TO WORK BECAUSE MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS DEFIES ALL MODEL GUIDANCE............
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHATEVER CHUCK NORRIS WANTS AND WE CANNOT DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT.....

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WHEREVER HE WANTS......... THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS WILL MOVE SOMEWHERE ....AND THEN HEAD TOWARDS YOU IF YOU WANT HIM TO GO OUT TO SEA AND AWAY FROM YOU.......... THIS STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ANTARCTICA AND THE NORTH POLE.......WE JUST DON'T KNOW WHERE.........

......YOU CANNOT GET OUT OF THE PATH OF THIS STORM AS THERE IS NO RUNNING FROM CHUCK NORRIS...HE WILL FIND YOU......OUR BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY INSIDE....AND DRINK MOUNTAIN DEW......

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS:

INIT 31/2100Z ?N ?W 500 MPH
12H 01/0600Z ?N ?W 515 MPH
24H 01/1800Z ?N ?W 525 MPH
36H 02/0600Z ?N ?W 535 MPH
48H 02/1800Z ?N ?W 540 MPH
72H 03/1800Z ?N ?W 555 MPH
96H 04/1800Z ?N ?W 575 MPH
120H 05/1800Z ?N ?W 605 MPH



$$
FORECASTER WXGEEKVA

if you are a big WWE fan like me tonight is WRESTLEMANIA some in I look forword too evere year
Blizzard entertainment's notorious April Fools jokes are normally good.

This year's joke is pathetic. I laughed more at how bad the joke is, rather than the joke itself...yeah...
This is supposed to become a very powerful low-pressure system over the next 48 hours, as depicted by the GFS and other models.



Quoting Ameister12:
What do we have here?

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AMEISTER12


ok that one really got me nearly did my pants lol

Quoting Patrap:
www.nhc.noaa.gov






YEAY I SEE CLOUDS PLEASE LET IT RAIN ON ME
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok that one really got me nearly did my pants lol



YEAY I SEE CLOUDS PLEASE LET IT RAIN ON ME

Whats up wunderkidcayman?
Whoa....

Omaha, NE: 91°F
Lincoln, NE: 91°F
Casper, WY: 77°F
Lander, WY: 76°F

Rock Spring, WY: 72°F
Worland, WY: 81°F
Laramie, WY: 71°F
Rawlins, WY: 73°F
Chadron, WY: 83°F
Sidney, WY: 83°F

Just as a point of comparison, 76 is a pretty normal July / August high for Lander and Casper. And it only hit 86 here yesterday... in the "tropics"....
Quoting WxGeekVA:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 312039
TCDAT2

MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 100
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1002012
1200 PM EST SUN APR 1 2012

…...MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS IS THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE EVER TO FORM IN ANY BASIN..... MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 500MPH....GUSTING TO 550MPH. PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 652MB..... ANYONE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM PREPARE TO BE ROUNDHOUSE KICKED BY THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE THING ON THE PLANET EVER...CHUCK NORRIS...........

....DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN AT
495 MPH..BUT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 500 MPH
FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOTHING CAN STOP THIS INCREDIBLE STORM...SO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.......... NOTHING ANYWHERE NEAR CHUCK NORRIS CAN CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.......AND AGAIN, NOTHING INHIBITS
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS MONSTER STORM............NOTHING CAN STOP CHUCK NORRIS EXCEPT ANOTHER CHUCK NORRIS......... ALL OF THE
GLOBAL COMPUTER FORECASTING MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS AND NAM...HAVE REFUSED TO WORK BECAUSE MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS DEFIES ALL MODEL GUIDANCE............
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHATEVER CHUCK NORRIS WANTS AND WE CANNOT DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT.....

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WHEREVER HE WANTS......... THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. MAJOR HURRICANE CHUCK NORRIS WILL MOVE SOMEWHERE ....AND THEN HEAD TOWARDS YOU IF YOU WANT HIM TO GO OUT TO SEA AND AWAY FROM YOU.......... THIS STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ANTARCTICA AND THE NORTH POLE.......WE JUST DON'T KNOW WHERE.........

......YOU CANNOT GET OUT OF THE PATH OF THIS STORM AS THERE IS NO RUNNING FROM CHUCK NORRIS...HE WILL FIND YOU......OUR BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY INSIDE....AND DRINK MOUNTAIN DEW......

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS:

INIT 31/2100Z ?N ?W 500 MPH
12H 01/0600Z ?N ?W 515 MPH
24H 01/1800Z ?N ?W 525 MPH
36H 02/0600Z ?N ?W 535 MPH
48H 02/1800Z ?N ?W 540 MPH
72H 03/1800Z ?N ?W 555 MPH
96H 04/1800Z ?N ?W 575 MPH
120H 05/1800Z ?N ?W 605 MPH



$$
FORECASTER WXGEEKVA


My word! We all are going to die
Quoting nigel20:

My word! We all are going to die

Not if you just stay inside and drink mountain dew.
Or Get B-Slapped by the Admins.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is supposed to become a very powerful low-pressure system over the next 48 hours, as depicted by the GFS and other models.





heading for the flemish cap graveyard of the atlantic
Quoting BahaHurican:
Whoa....

Omaha, NE: 91°F
Lincoln, NE: 91°F
Casper, WY: 77°F
Lander, WY: 76°F

Rock Spring, WY: 72°F
Worland, WY: 81°F
Laramie, WY: 71°F
Rawlins, WY: 73°F
Chadron, WY: 83°F
Sidney, WY: 83°F

Just as a point of comparison, 76 is a pretty normal July / August high for Lander and Casper. And it only hit 86 here yesterday... in the "tropics"....

Yeah...some of these temps are what you would expect in the tropics
1050 Skyepony: Narwhals contributing to mounting climate change data

I'm finding myself wondering whether narwhals, belugas, walruses, and arctic seals can survive in a world of summertime ice-free open ocean.
Besides the obvious, orca prey upon them during the near-surface-water warm season. And their best hiding spots / defensive positions are on the floating sea-ice or within areas bounded by subsurface sea-ice "sculptures".
Warmer waters will mean that orcas will feel more comfortable in the ArcticOcean (maybe even year-around in the future) and that greater numbers will be drawn to hunt there.
For the pinnepeds especially, an ice-free ocean will mean being trapped between trying to evade polar bears on land and trying to evade orcas at sea.
Quoting Patrap:




Looks like the Bahamas is going to get some moisture from this drifter. And as someone else said, just imagine with 30 kts less shear....
Well, since we're all just playing around today, how about this nightmarish 2012-ian scenario?

THIS IS A FAKE

THIS IS A FAKE
NWS offices have begun issuing their March climate summaries via Public Information Statements, use "Previous Version" to click through.

any one took a look at the 12Z TWD its cool we have our first TW of the season

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 11N34W TO 5N37W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AS IT DID YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOHWS UP AS A WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MARCH 24. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 10 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK TO NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N17W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES
FROM 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not if you just stay inside and drink mountain dew.

Mountain dew to the resue...hurray
Whee... Deacon Blues and 2 months to the start of the ATL season... what more can one desire...

LOL...

I'm out, ya'll. I gotta work this p.m., but will look in later as time permits.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
any one took a look at the 12Z TWD its cool we have our first TW of the season

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 11N34W TO 5N37W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AS IT DID YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOHWS UP AS A WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MARCH 24. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 10 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK TO NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N17W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES
FROM 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.


I fell for that..
A poem I wrote in 1996.

The Earth Made Us, To Make Plastic

She realized she couldn’t do it straight away herself,
So she had to make creatures that would do it for her.
Fleas that like plastic. What an idea.
And if you don’t believe it,
Think about it.
While you chew away at your plastic fingernails,
and twirl your plastic hair extensions,
wearing your plastic clothes, watch, shoes, and accessories.
Maybe later you’ll go for a drive in your plastic car,
Sit on your plastic seat and listen to some CD plastic tunes,
Coming out of your plastic radio.
Might just go through the plastic coated drive-through,
Eat some food that’s wrapped in plastic.
Or, just come back home again,
To your house of plastic and tree bones.
Look in your plastic refrigerator,
At some food in the plastic containers.
Watch some plastic T.V. while relaxing on the plastic sofa.
Then, time to go to sleep on your plastic bed,
under your nice soft, “synthetic” plastic blankets.
Next morning, you go to work at your job, where you either….
make or assemble plastic,
buy or sell something made with plastic or plastic parts,
or provide services
where you either interact, or deal
with plastic things, equipment, or other services that have
Something….to do…….with plastic.
Computer...telephone...copying machine?
So how’s that for something to mull over, the next time
You’re on vacation and laying on the beach,
or lounging besides the plastic pool,
In your plastic lounge chair,
Pouring drinks from a plastic pitcher,
sipping a Margarita through a plastic straw in a plastic cup.
What it is that the Earth Mother will do with all of this plastic?
Once we have all choked ourselves with it and are gone………..


© “StormGoddess” 1996


Quoting nigel20:

Whats up wunderkidcayman?


hey I'm cool I see that there is more clouds on sat I wish it can grow and stay here and hopefully get some rain still looks dry here
Inre 7 Ameister12, 16 TropicalAnalystwx13, 29 WxGeekVA, and 45 wunderkidcayman
I mean really, dudes, AprilFools jokes are supposed to be harmless; like the BBC's video on spaghetti trees being harvested in Switzerland.
Faking the NationalWeatherService's report-styling to lend credibility is not harmless.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Whee... Deacon Blues and 2 months to the start of the ATL season... what more can one desire...

LOL...

I'm out, ya'll. I gotta work this p.m., but will look in later as time permits.

Nice to have you back on the blog Baha
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey I'm cool I see that there is more clouds on sat I wish it can grow and stay here and hopefully get some rain still looks dry here

Yeah.....it's currently partly cloudy here in Kingston, Jamaica
Quoting Patrap:
Welcome to the New Earth, brought to you by Big Energy and "us" overall.







Dolphins apparently took quite a hit. Liver and lung issues for them. Overall, the damage from the Deepwater spill appears far worse than "expected."

UK's Guardian - "Gulf's dolphins pay heavy price for Deepwater oil spill"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt somebody would believe those considering no where in my post does it mention the official NWS/SPC :)

Look and feel.
March 31, 2011

March 31, 2012
Quoting bappit:

Look and feel.


My feeling on this is that NWS material must NEVER be spoofed, even on April 1st. That way the real NWS announcements ALWAYS get taken seriously. Definitely not funny.
Regarding the April Fools posts, some people are more gullible than you might think. Here is a (true) story about people who believed stories from The Onion.
Quoting aspectre:
Inre 7 Ameister12, 16 TropicalAnalystwx13 and 29 WxGeekVA,
I mean really, dudes, AprilFools jokes are supposed to be harmless; like the BBC's video on spaghetti trees being harvested in Switzerland.
Faking the NationalWeatherService's report-styling to lend credibility is not harmless.


Quoting WatchingThisOne:


My feeling on this is that NWS material must NEVER be spoofed, even on April 1st. That way the real NWS announcements ALWAYS get taken seriously. Definitely not funny.


For the love of god, lighten up! It's April Fools Day, the one day a year when you can straight up lie or make something up and get away with it! Let us have fun without having it ruined by someone wih no sense of humor! Thank You!
March 31, 2011

March 31, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:




For the love of god, lighten up! It's April Fools Day, the one day a year when you can straight up lie or make something up and get away with it! Let us have fun without having it ruined by someone wih no sense of humor! Thank You!
legend has it aprils fools are to be played before the noon time passing after that it was only a fool himself that would pull a prank
Faking someone's signature is never "just fun": notice all the perma-bans on those who spoofed the names of regulars. And the NWS/SPC/NHC page-style is a signature.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




For the love of god, lighten up! It's April Fools Day, the one day a year when you can straight up lie or make something up and get away with it! Let us have fun without having it ruined by someone wih no sense of humor! Thank You!


I've laughed over at least a dozen April Fool's jokes today. But not this one - I take the sanctity of NWS pronouncements very seriously. I don't think imitating statements from law enforcement on April Fool's Day is funny either.
hey guys...got some bad news. I dont believe i will be on wundergroud anymore, just dont have the time. :(:(
According to the NHC...
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE N WHILE INTENSIFYING.

And...
...SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 23N93W TO 19N95W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH.
All these jokes imitating NWS products. And we wonder why they aren't taken seriously.... smh



Spring Flood Outlooks...Good news for most of US, with only small areas with above avg. flood potential.

Quoting cyclonekid:

What are the reports if any coming out of Vietnam?
Quoting SPLbeater:
hey guys...got some bad news. I dont believe i will be on wundergroud anymore, just dont have the time. :(:(

What's up SPL?
Quoting SPLbeater:
hey guys...got some bad news. I dont believe i will be on wundergroud anymore, just dont have the time. :(:(
Why?
I never meant for people to get so upset about my April Fool's joke. I thought it would be a funny weather related joke, but obviously a lot of you found it unfunny to create a hypothetical TWO text as my joke. I'll take the post down if you guys really want me too.

Sorry 'bout that. =(
I see the east Pacific is starting to get that look . Mean while the dryest month for us is April and according to radar some areas will soon have a Aprils worth of rain.
Quoting SPLbeater:
hey guys...got some bad news. I dont believe i will be on wundergroud anymore, just dont have the time. :(:(
now this is a good april fool

I hate April Fools with a Paaaaaasion.A freak'in Passion!.I hate this day.Can 12:01 am just hurry and come...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There is special place in hell for people like you.


Uncalled for and reported. No need for any hating on this blog.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There is special place in hell for people like you.
lighten up francis
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There is special place in hell for people like you.



that was vary uncall for you all so been reported
I got a phone # for you to call ask for Mr. Lyon if he isn't there a man named Mr. Bear will speak to you. Any local Zoo will work.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I will too, but I would think that anyone using common sense would know mine is fake after the first line...


I'm sure most people that follow weather passionately (like me :D) will, but people that just come on every now and then to check their weather might not get it.

Even local counties don't test sirens when clouds are out, to avoid scaring people. Please use judgement when making any post.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


There is special place in hell for people like you.

Some one is being a grouch today.
Quoting Tazmanian:



that was vary uncall for you all so been reported


Lighten up, he was just kidding.
Blog getting tense like it has been too often lately, I think I will depart. Try and keep to weather talk guys.
Really? No one has heard that line before? I am on your side hahaha...
They are just jokes last year it happen the same why we need to fights this day is for pranks and fun so why don`t all of us just chill out.
It's extremely unlikely that a stranger casually surfing the internet for important weather information would randomly drop by this particular blog forum. And in the extremely unlikely event that did happen, should this stranger happen to read a facetious bit of fake weather info, he or she would--it is hoped--seek a second verifying source of information before, say, boarding up his or her home and relocating to an underground bunker in the hills. Especially given that it's, you know, April 1 and all...
My god.... I cannot believe that some people on here have turned April Fools Day jokes into arguements, bickering, "you are being reported", and a general flame war over a few posts! Lighten up, seriously!
Quoting Tazmanian:



that was vary uncall for you all so been reported


Oh no! what would I ever do without this blog!?
Quoting WxGeekVA:
My god.... I cannot believe that some people on here have turned April Fools Day jokes into arguements, bickering, "you are being reported", and a general flame war over a few posts! Lighten up, seriously!


It is the internet... people should go outside and live a little...
Scorching across the Plains today. Already up to 90 at Winner, SD. Philip, SD is at 89 and Valentine, NE at 88. Of course, Winner made it up to 94 on one day last month -- looks like it may climb into the mid 90s again today with a few more hours of heating left. Several other sites should best 90.

Meanwhile, we're stuck under overcast skies here in Toledo. Temperatures, however, are fairly comfortable -- near 60 degrees, which is still several degrees above normal. But nothing like they're getting off to the west.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's extremely unlikely that a stranger casually surfing the internet for important weather information would randomly drop by this particular blog forum. And in the extremely unlikely event that did happen, should this stranger happen to read a facetious bit of fake weather info, he or she would--it is hoped--seek a second verifying source of information before, say, boarding up his or her home and relocating to an underground bunker in the hills. Especially given that it's, you know, April 1 and all...


Nea, I don't always agree with you or your posts, but this might just be the post of the week. I wonder why they don't make you, Pat, and Gro moderators here...
Well, I'm out for now. Should wait until the blog cools down to get back on.
This blog is Hot Hot Hot!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Nea, I don't always agree with you or your posts, but this might just be the post of the week. I wonder why they don't make you, Pat, and Gro moderators here...


Moderators are secret. The walls have ears. How do we know those 3 aren't moderators in disguise. By the way you are all Grounded.
Quoting Neapolitan:
That heat blob continues today before fading out overt he next week (in fact, a week from now temperatures across the United States will be as close to normal as they have been for nearly an entire month). Today's high temperature anomalies):



I don't know what you're looking at, but the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks call for above normal temperatures nationwide, including Alaska.

6 to 10 day outlook



8 to 14 day outlook


Quoting PedleyCA:


Moderators are secret. The walls have ears. How do we know those 3 aren't moderators in disguise. By the way you are all Grounded.


Or maybe... you are a moderator and you are just saying that to throw us off the scent!

WunderBlogs - Standards

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the wunderground employees to interact with bloggers.

This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.
As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.

For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.
Warmest March, warmest January through March 3-month period, and warmest April through March 12-month period on record at Des Moines.

Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dmx/March_Story_DSM .pdf


March checked in at 55.7 degrees, besting the old record from 1910 by a whopping 4.2 degrees. January through March is at 39.7, a full 3.6 degrees above the previous record from 1921. And the 12-month period commencing April 1, 2011 is at 55.1 degrees, 1.5 degrees warmer than the record in 1934-35.
Overfishing, deforestation causing Caribbean coral reef decline
Link
Welcome to Weather Underground...where April Fools' Day is a battlefield.
Quoting ClimateChange:
Scorching across the Plains today. Already up to 90 at Winner, SD. Philip, SD is at 89 and Valentine, NE at 88. Of course, Winner made it up to 94 on one day last month -- looks like it may climb into the mid 90s again today with a few more hours of heating left. Several other sites should best 90.

Meanwhile, we're stuck under overcast skies here in Toledo. Temperatures, however, are fairly comfortable -- near 60 degrees, which is still several degrees above normal. But nothing like they're getting off to the west.


Toledo sounds similar to Kalamazoo, around 60 with an overcast layer and haze.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
This blog is Hot Hot Hot!
ABW instead of AGW.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...EXTREME NWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011831Z - 012000Z

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF TN INTO
EXTREME WRN NC WHERE LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER PER AN EXPANDING CU FIELD SOUTH-WEST OF DECAYING KY
MCS. ALTHOUGH THIS MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST NWLY FLOW/SHEAR...CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2012

Quoting BahaHurican:
ABW instead of AGW.


Too many carbon emissions if you know what
i mean ;)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...EXTREME NWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011831Z - 012000Z

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF TN INTO
EXTREME WRN NC WHERE LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER PER AN EXPANDING CU FIELD SOUTH-WEST OF DECAYING KY
MCS. ALTHOUGH THIS MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST NWLY FLOW/SHEAR...CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2012



Is this an April fools or the real thing?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Moderators are secret. The walls have ears. How do we know those 3 aren't moderators in disguise. By the way you are all Grounded.
Grounded..I love it..Whats the punishment. No t.v. for a month. Dishes and yardwork?..:)
Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. 
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Is this an April fools or the real thing?

If I was going to do an April Fools I would've done something funny and unrealistic, not a Meso discussion.
So yes, it is the real thing.
Quoting hydrus:
Grounded..I love it..Whats the punishment. No t.v. for a month. Dishes and yardwork?..:)

What's up hydrus?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If I was going to do an April Fools I would've done something funny and unrealistic, not a Meso discussion.
So yes, it is the real thing.


i still went and checked :/
it is real.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's extremely unlikely that a stranger casually surfing the internet for important weather information would randomly drop by this particular blog forum. And in the extremely unlikely event that did happen, should this stranger happen to read a facetious bit of fake weather info, he or she would--it is hoped--seek a second verifying source of information before, say, boarding up his or her home and relocating to an underground bunker in the hills. Especially given that it's, you know, April 1 and all...
Good post..I believe most people get the forecast for their location from other sources first thing in the morning. Our hurricane bloggy is for the tropics.
Quoting hydrus:
Grounded..I love it..Whats the punishment. No t.v. for a month. Dishes and yardwork?..:)


Works for me...

.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. 


Quote of the day....
Knoxville now under a severe thunderstorm warning... Not an April Fools

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TNC001-013-093-129-151-011930-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0075.120401T1841Z-120401T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
EXTREME SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES NORTHEAST OF WARTBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CLINTON...KNOXVILLE...PETROS...ROSEDALE...KARNS... POWELL...BEARDEN
AND HALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8434 3605 8434 3604 8436 3617 8459
3632 8448 3612 8383 3587 8402 3588 8403
3586 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 301DEG 27KT 3620 8443

$$

DH
Quoting ClimateChange:


I don't know what you're looking at, but the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks call for above normal temperatures nationwide, including Alaska.

6 to 10 day outlook



8 to 14 day outlook


I didn't say temperatures would return to normal; I said that they'd be as close to normal as they've been in about month (I should have clarified that "as close to normal" was a relative term). And then that's only until about next weekend; later in the period, temps are expected to climb. Again. From today through, say, next Saturday, there'll be a slow moderation--and then the unseasonable warmth returns.

BTW: that 94 reading in Winner, SD, two weeks ago has been rejected.
Overfishing, deforestation causing Caribbean coral reef decline
Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why?


APRIL FOOLS LOL!!!

Quoting nigel20:

What's up SPL?


nothing but the jokes LOL
Quoting SPLbeater:


APRIL FOOLS LOL!!!



nothing but the jokes LOL

Yeah, I knew you were joking
Quoting SPLbeater:


APRIL FOOLS LOL!!!



nothing but the jokes LOL


OH YOU GOT US
Quoting nigel20:

What's up hydrus?
Greetings...SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
405 AM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 12Z SUN APR 01 2012 - 12Z TUE APR 03 2012

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

A STORM OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
CENTRAL CANADA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN THEN
THE BOUNDARY TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN HEADING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM PRODUCES SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTIAN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY MORNING MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY MONDAY MORNING AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
BY MONDAY EVENING.

THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE STORM INTERSECTS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ... EXPANDING INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. SIMILARLY ...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SYSTEM INTERSECTS MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY
EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN
PRODUCING COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE ... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL MOVE INTO PARTS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.
ALSO ... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON MONDAY MORNING MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION ON MONDAY ... A NEW PACIFIC STORM WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRIGGERING MORE COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.


ZIEGENFELDER
I hate April Fools Day. I hate having to read stuff and then deciphering whether it's a joke or not. Nothing worse than reading the news and guessing if it's true or not.
Quoting nigel20:

What's up hydrus?
Rain for you..Sunday, 1
Thunderstorm
84 | 75 °F
T-storms
Chance of
Precipitation
90%
Monday, 2
Chance of a Thunderstorm
84 | 77 °F
Chance of T-storms
Chance of
Precipitation
40%
Tuesday, 3
Mostly Cloudy
86 | 77 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Wednesday, 4
Overcast
84 | 75 °F
Overcast
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Thursday, 5
Partly Cloudy
86 | 75 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Friday, 6
Partly Cloudy
84 | 75 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Saturday, 7
Partly Cloudy
84 | 75 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Sunday, 8
Partly Cloudy
84 | 73 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Source: BestForecast at 8:41 AM EST on April 01, 2012
Descriptive Forecast
Sunday
tstorms Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 84F with a heat index of 90F. Winds from the East at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 in. possible.
Sunday Night
nt_tstorms Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with thunderstorms. Fog overnight. Low of 75F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.
Quoting yqt1001:
I hate April Fools Day. I hate having to read stuff and then deciphering whether it's a joke or not. Nothing worse than reading the news and guessing if it's true or not.
High Five!!!.I hate this day to!!!!.
Quoting yqt1001:
I hate having to read stuff and then deciphering whether it's a joke or not. Nothing worse than reading the news and guessing if it's true or not.
I do that every day--especially if Fox happens to be on (in which case assuming the latter is usually a safe bet). ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I do that every day--especially if Fox happens to be on (in which case assuming the latter is usually a safe bet). ;-)


Well, yes, I search for bias, but news agencies don't generally lie without a bias on any day but today. :P
Quoting Neapolitan:
I didn't say temperatures would return to normal; I said that they'd be as close to normal as they've been in about month (I should have clarified that "as close to normal" was a relative term). And then that's only until about next weekend; later in the period, temps are expected to climb. Again. From today through, say, next Saturday, there'll be a slow moderation--and then the unseasonable warmth returns.

BTW: that 94 reading in Winner, SD, two weeks ago has been rejected.


By whom? What was wrong with that reading?
God I need a girlfriend to spend time with.

It's even doctor's orders, I swear!

Need to get off this computer and um do..stuff.
Some of you need to lighten up...it's April Fools Day for gods sake.
Quoting RTSplayer:
God I need a girlfriend to spend time with.

It's even doctor's orders, I swear!

Need to get off this computer and um do..stuff.


i know right?

The next 15 days look boring, and all the weather people are saying, "oh what great weather". :/
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Some of you need to lighten up...it's April Fools Day for Gods sake.


yeah lota people get mad when they find out what they read wasnt true or real lol. like the statement i read today that said TropicalAnalystwx13's county was under a hugh risk of severe weather lol. (jk)
Quoting ClimateChange:


By whom? What was wrong with that reading?
From Dr. Masters on 3/19:

"Winner, South Dakota hit 94F yesterday, the earliest 90+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94F reading was just 2F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 9°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87F is the appropriate high for Winner."

From Christopher Burt on 3/25:

"Jeff and I just got condfirmation from the NWS that the Winner, SD figure of 94 was a glitch in their automoted system at Winner and they estimate the actual high was just 87"
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
3:00 AM JST April 2 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1002 hPa) located at 11.5N 106.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 12.4N 104.5E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia ~

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 21:50 PM UTC..
This doesn't look good for the Dakotas and Parts of the plains:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This doesn't look good for the Dakotas and Parts of the plains:
A week out in this current pattern will through the models a bit. I wonder how that pans out tho.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis. html

Showers and t-storm flaring in the southern Gulf today. Clicking on "W-hi" wind vectors reveals an upper low that has cut-off over southern Texas...to the south of the warm upper-level high over the central US that is a signature of yesterday's record highs Dr. M was referencing.

The southwest winds ahead of this cut-off upper low are divergent and supporting those storms...a setup a bit similar to what triggered 90L in February I think. Does anyone know if models reduce the shear in the southern Gulf? If they don't....then probably these storm won't organize at all....
Quoting hydrus:
A week out in this current pattern will through the models a bit. I wonder how that pans out tho.


There at least should be something though, because there is the trough in the western US in 3 or 4 days.
I hope it trends south to my area, but it probably will lift north.
The Google maps/earth team has a cute April 1st treat
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This doesn't look good for the Dakotas and Parts of the plains:

Moisture looks limited at that time frame.

I doubt we'll see a more substantial Severe Weather event anytime soon with a relatively zonal flow overtaking the CONUS.
Quoting Patrap:
Cool looking little blob..
Quoting hydrus:
Cool looking little blob..


Looks like this Gulf of Mexico thunderstorm blob is gaining attetion per posts 144, 138, and 136....

Do the models hint at anything like Invest 90L? The upper air pattern is a bit similar to what happened with 90L...with the system being supported by a cut-off upper low/trough to the south of a warm upper-level high....
146. N3EG
...and the fact that the PNW is headed into its third straight cooler than normal spring is, of course, meaningless...

Hey, maybe we can break our April rain record to go along with March's record.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Looks like this Gulf of Mexico thunderstorm blob is gaining attetion per posts 144, 138, and 136....

Do the models hint at anything like Invest 90L? The upper air pattern is a bit similar to what happened with 90L...with the system being supported by a cut-off upper low/trough to the south of a warm upper-level high....

If you think it has a chance in 50-60 knots of wind shear..

It's just thunderstorm activity being supported by upper air divergence.
this may be the hotes summer evere for the USA and it looks like for some its off too a early start so it looks like the 100s are not that far be hid
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you think it has a chance in 50-60 knots of wind shear..

It's just thunderstorm activity being supported by upper air divergence.
I have been tracking this for a long time. It is actually the remnant circulation of tropical storm Karen.Hurricane Karen near peak intensity
Formed September 24, 2007
Dissipated September 29, 2007
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 988 mbar (hPa); 29.18 inHg
Fatalities None
Damage None
Areas affected No land areas
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This doesn't look good for the Dakotas and Parts of the plains:

No it doesn't
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you think it has a chance in 50-60 knots of wind shear..

It's just thunderstorm activity being supported by upper air divergence.


Yeah...the shear is high right now...but I was wondering if the models reduce the shear in the area.

If they don't...then yeah this indeed is just thunderstorms being supported by upper divergence...
Went shopping and passed a sign message for a private community service organization advertising:
Free Twilight Easter Egg Hunt

Woulda thought that children and vampires 'd make a bad mix. But then again...
...it does solve the problem of getting new blood into an organization.
Come check out the new blog entry reviewing the 2011 book by Mark Lynas titled "The God Species."

For the April post, Lynas divides Chapter 2 into four interesting, interrelated sections titled "The Ascent of Man," "God Species or Rebel Organism?", "The Descent of Man," and "Birth of the Fire-Ape."

I also highly recomend reading the interesting "Preface" section from the March 2012 entry.

This blog is updated on the first of each month over the span of twelve months, with a new subject for each environmental issue. The order of these topics will be the following...

March 1st: Preface
April 1st: Introduction: The Ascent of Man
May 1st: Boundary 1: Biodiversity
June 1st: Boundary 2: Climate Change
July 1st: Boundary 3: Nitrogen
August 1st: Boundary 4: Land Use
September 1st: Boundary 5: Fresh Water
October 1st: Boundary 6: Toxics
November 1st: Boundary 7: Aerosols
December 1st: Boundary 8: Ocean Acidification
January 1st: Boundary 9: Ozone Layer
February 1st: Epilogue: Managing the Planet
--------------------------------

I invite everyone of all kinds to come check it out. I would be very interested in "respectful and friendly" insights on the subject matter.

Here's the link: Link
Quoting nigel20:


Thanks for posting..this map shows a shear tendency of -5 to -10 knots in the southern Gulf over last 24 hours...and TropicalAnalystwx13 was saying it was now 50 to 60 knots (that means it was 60 to 70 knots 24 horus ago?)....

But this is the shear trend in the previous 24 hours...but what about the predicting shear intensity over the next days....I wish there was a model output that would animate a shear tendecy map like that one into the future...
Quoting Tazmanian:
this may be the hotes summer evere for the USA and it looks like for some its off too a early start so it looks like the 100s are not that far be hid
yes I kinda agree, if this hot pattern holds true, this summer is going to be awful, keeping a very close eye on the Gulf water temps..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Moisture looks limited at that time frame.

I doubt we'll see a more substantial Severe Weather event anytime soon with a relatively zonal flow overtaking the CONUS.
weather channel guy this morning giving the weekly said the mid states better watch this system coming into oregon now, its cold and its going to crash into this high 80's-low 90's mid week...boom maybe come the tornado's again..something to watch and wait to see what happens mid week
Quoting Patrap:


looks like Cancun is going its heavy rainfall..hope this comes north then north east
Quoting hydrus:
I have been tracking this for a long time. It is actually the remnant circulation of tropical storm Karen.Hurricane Karen near peak intensity
Formed September 24, 2007
Dissipated September 29, 2007
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 988 mbar (hPa); 29.18 inHg
Fatalities None
Damage None
Areas affected No land areas
Zing!!!

Good one :o)
Good Afternoon. For the weather Newbies on blog, don't be fooled by the posted "still-shots" on April Fools Day. That "line" of clouds stretching from the Antilles out into the Middle-Atlantic is NOT the ITCZ and that huge Blob near the Gulf of Mexico is NOT the first storm of the 2012 Hurricane Season; although this is a very good optical illusion.
i would have really liked to see joe's video's on this season regardless of what people think he has been consistent in forecasting correct conditions well maybe a lil off in the short range jus kiddin
LET US NOT FORGET! THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON BEGINS IN 46 days maybe i wonder if anyone can do a synopsis on thaT season?
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
LET US NOT FORGET! THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON BEGINS IN 46 days maybe i wonder if anyone can do a synopsis on thaT season?

I'm thinking 14-8-4 for the East Pac
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm thinking 14-8-4 for the East Pac


ok sounds average since the eastern pacific is generally more active than the atlantic more so to do with formation of storms in my opinion
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
6:00 AM FST April 2 2012
======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.


At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (997 hPa) located at 17.6S 169.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap giving DT=2.5, MET=2.5. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
LET US NOT FORGET! THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON BEGINS IN 46 days maybe i wonder if anyone can do a synopsis on thaT season?

I know that the basin produces great looking storms but it gets boring just watching them take a path to either Hawaii or to the Baja. Anything can happen in the atlantic. But synopsis, I'd say 14-10-5
Quoting caribbeantracker01:

Is it me or are those saying less El Nino than the last time they ran?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Is it me or are those saying less El Nino than the last time they ran?


its saying less but still on for an el
WHAT IS INTERESTING IS HOW IT FORECAST THE ENTIRE GLOBE TO COOL OFF

RE: 128

I tried driving around town to see if there was any sort of economic or social activities going on, and there just isn't. Nothing at all to do around this place.

Ok, so it's Sunday. You'd think people would be off from work and be doing something (not that many people even have a job around here, unless you count minimum wage food services or cashier jobs,) but there's nothing going on at all. Rarely even seen traffic so light.

I heard on the news yesterday that up to 55% of young people from 18 to 29 are unemployed. They may as well add 30 and 31 too.

There is simply no opportunity for financial or social advancement to anyone in this age group right now at all..
Eastern Pacific hurricane season predictions?

15 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
173. txjac
Quoting RTSplayer:
RE: 128

I tried driving around town to see if there was any sort of economic or social activities going on, and there just isn't. Nothing at all to do around this place.

Ok, so it's Sunday. You'd think people would be off from work and be doing something (not that many people even have a job around here, unless you count minimum wage food services or cashier jobs,) but there's nothing going on at all. Rarely even seen traffic so light.

I heard on the news yesterday that up to 55% of young people from 18 to 29 are unemployed. They may as well add 30 and 31 too.

There is simply no opportunity for financial or social advancement to anyone in this age group right now at all..


Sorry to ask if you have already said, but where do you live?


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL...CNTRL IND...WCNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012042Z - 012215Z

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS ECNTRL IL INVOF IROQUOIS/VERMILION COUNTIES. THIS
IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF STRONG THERMAL HEATING AT LOW LEVELS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUAL SAG
SWD INTO THIS ZONE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...THOUGH DEEP WLY FLOW MAY
DELAY THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD
MOVE SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25-30KT. LATEST THINKING IS AN E-W CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHICH WOULD POSE AT LEAST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
6:00 AM JST April 2 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1002 hPa) located at 11.9N 106.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 12.7N 104.1E - Tropical Depression

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 0:50 AM UTC..
Quoting txjac:


Sorry to ask if you have already said, but where do you live?


Well, sort of in the middle of nowhere I guess, in southern Tangipahoa Parish in Louisiana.

I guess if somebody is the type that likes to hang out at bars and get plastered 3 or 4 nights per week, this is heaven. I mean, they hang around at the local bars and clubs and get plastered, and then every week or two, when they get bored with killing themselves at the local place, they'll take a road trip down the bourbon and get plastered down there instead. That's just the way the majority of the culture is around here.

If you don't like that, then there's pretty much nothing to do with your life within driving distance of this place, and as far as I can tell, nowhere else to meet people.

There's no public social activities for anyone else. They got Bingo or other such things for the elderly and sandwich generation people, and they got drunken stupor for college kids or the other retards that like that, but they really got nothing going for a 30 year old.


Oh yeah, the unemployment figures I posted were apparently for the entire nation.

So I figure almost everyone from my age downwards is broke anyway.


But nobody "makes" anything around here, except two or three small factories.

There's the college, but that's that.

Other than that, the economy seems to be based on Beer and antiques...



Magnitude 5.7 - NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2012 April 01 21:44:01 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.7

Date-Time
Sunday, April 01, 2012 at 21:44:01 UTC
Monday, April 02, 2012 at 07:44:01 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
4.498°S, 153.470°E
Depth
97.5 km (60.6 miles)
Region
NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances
51 km (31 miles) E of Taron, New Ireland, PNG
149 km (92 miles) ESE of Rabaul, New Britain, PNG
887 km (551 miles) NE of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
2547 km (1582 miles) N of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 13.8 km (8.6 miles); depth +/- 6.8 km (4.2 miles)
Parameters
NST=264, Nph=275, Dmin=149.2 km, Rmss=1.03 sec, Gp= 14°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008u1l

Did you feel it? Report shaking and damage at your location. You can also view a map displaying accumulated data from your report and others.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Thanks for posting..this map shows a shear tendency of -5 to -10 knots in the southern Gulf over last 24 hours...and TropicalAnalystwx13 was saying it was now 50 to 60 knots (that means it was 60 to 70 knots 24 horus ago?)....

But this is the shear trend in the previous 24 hours...but what about the predicting shear intensity over the next days....I wish there was a model output that would animate a shear tendecy map like that one into the future...

No problem
HOW MANY HURRICANES THIS YEAR FOR THE ATLANTIC?>



Magnitude 5.3 - GUERRERO, MEXICO
2012 April 01 22:23:49 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.3

Date-Time
Sunday, April 01, 2012 at 22:23:49 UTC
Sunday, April 01, 2012 at 05:23:49 PM at epicenter
Location
16.697°N, 98.335°W
Depth
20.8 km (12.9 miles)
Region
GUERRERO, MEXICO
Distances
9 km (6 miles) E (79°) from Ometepec, Guerrero, Mexico
54 km (33 miles) NW (321°) from Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca, Mexico
94 km (59 miles) SW (228°) from Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico
156 km (97 miles) SE (127°) from Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico
170 km (105 miles) E (96°) from Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 22.4 km (13.9 miles); depth +/- 10.8 km (6.7 miles)
Parameters
NST=243, Nph=245, Dmin=305 km, Rmss=1.04 sec, Gp=176°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008u3r
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm thinking 14-8-4 for the East Pac

Could be more if an el nino were to occur..el nino conditions in the eastern pacific reduces wind shear in that region, so storm would have more favourable conditions to develope
Quoting nigel20:

Could be more if an el nino were to occur..el nino conditions in the eastern pacific reduces wind shear in that region, so storm would have more favourable conditions to develope

I'm still not buying a major el nino though, so I think about average seasons for both the Atlantic and East Pac
Eastern Pacific hurricane season predictions?

16 named storms
10 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
EITHER WAY EL NINO OR LA NINO OR WHATEVER FLORIDA WILL GET NOTHING ITS ALWAYS SPOMETHING LIKE WIND SHEAR AFRICAN DUST OR TROUGHS THAT KEEP THEM AWAY
HOW CAN THEY PREDICT HOW MANY STORMS WE WILL GET MONTHS FROM NOW WHEN THEY CANT EVEN PREDICT WHEN OR WHERE A STORM WILL GO OR WHAT IT WILL WHEN WE HAVE ONE?
Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
HOW MANY HURRICANES THIS YEAR FOR THE ATLANTIC?>
NONE. IT IS JUST LIKE YOU ALWAYS SAY THERE WILL BE NO HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR NO TROPICAL STORMS EITHER OR TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS IN FACT THERE WILL BE NO TROPICAL WAVES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND SARAHAN DUST AND NEGATIVE MJO AND COLD SSTS AND POORLY-TIMED TROUGHS AND AN EARLY WINTER AND SHOWER CURTAINS AND ISLAND VOODOO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY FREE OF CLOUDS FROM MIDNIGHT MAY 31 UNTIL 12:01 AM ON DECEMBER 1 (EXCEPT FOR MY BIRTHDAY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER WHEN IT WILL POUR BUCKETS AND RUIN MY SWEET SIXTEEN I JUST KNOW IT).

I hope that answers your question; please let me know if you need further clarification. ;-)
I made my own convective, hail, wind, and tornado outlook for tomorrow. I would like to point out that these images have no affiliation with the Storm Prediction Center.



Hail Outlook: 15% hatched

Tornado Outlook: 2%

Wind Outlook: 15% hatched
Quoting Neapolitan:
NONE. IT IS JUST LIKE YOU ALWAYS SAY THERE WILL BE NO HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR NO TROPICAL STORMS EITHER OR TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS IN FACT THERE WILL BE NO TROPICAL WAVES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND SARAHAN DUST AND NEGATIVE MJO AND COLD SSTS AND POORLY-TIMED TROUGHS AND AN EARLY WINTER AND SHOWER CURTAINS AND ISLAND VOODOO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY FREE OF CLOUDS FROM MIDNIGHT MAY 31 UNTIL 12:01 AM ON DECEMBER 1 (EXCEPT FOR MY BIRTHDAY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER WHEN IT WILL POUR BUCKETS AND RUIN MY SWEET SIXTEEN I JUST KNOW IT).

I hope that answers your question; please let me know if you need further clarification. ;-)
HOW DO YOU FIX THE CAPS LOCK?!?!??!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eastern Pacific hurricane season predictions?

15 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

I think your prediction will more likely to occur in an average eastern pacific season...are making this prediction. Based on neutral or el nino conditions in the eastern pacific?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made my own convective, hail, wind, and tornado outlook for tomorrow. I would like to point out that these images have no affiliation with the Storm Prediction Center.



Hail Outlook: 15% hatched

Tornado Outlook: 2%

Wind Outlook: 15% hatched
I'm telling you, a website is what we both need.
Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
EITHER WAY EL NINO OR LA NINO OR WHATEVER FLORIDA WILL GET NOTHING ITS ALWAYS SPOMETHING LIKE WIND SHEAR AFRICAN DUST OR TROUGHS THAT KEEP THEM AWAY

I HAVE A FEELING THIS USER IS A TROLL

Luckily there's a nifty little ignore user button we can use, as well as the always dependable - and even ! buttons :D
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm still not buying a major el nino though, so I think about average seasons for both the Atlantic and East Pac

At this point in time the models are not sure what conditions will be in the hurricane season...we have to wait until about the end of April or some time in May what ENSO conditions we will see during the hurricane season
Quoting nigel20:

I think your prediction will more likely to occur in an average eastern pacific season...are making this prediction. Based on neutral or el nino conditions in the eastern pacific?

Both.
My Eastern Pacific numbers are:

17/10/5

Hydrus,when will you start the poll for the 2012 North Atlantic? I ask because I have seen polls in some sites that have started today.
The average in the eastern pacific:
15.3/8.8/4.2
Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:



stop yelling dude!! lose the caps and calm down. we have no need for trollish behavior.
I am saying 17-10-8 for the Eastern north pacific if an El NIÑO occurs.
Quoting SPLbeater:


stop yelling dude!! lose the caps and calm down. we have no need for trollish behavior.

You see how he is acting? Ok, let's pause for a minute and think. If we're just beginning to enter troll season...how is it usually like in August? Two more like these? Three? Four? Maybe Five? Yep...get used to it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both.

I guess that's a fair assessment
Hi,

Usually only check this blog out in the hurricane season. Was interested in getting the experts on here, thoughts on this developing tropical storm in the Pacific.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirg mscol.html

Officially this is only classed as a tropical depression but seems to have the signature of a tropical storm to me. The other issue is its course. Fiji authorities have it going well to the south but its recent movement seems to be ESE rather than the forecast SE. It is moving rather quickly - around 25Mph which will limit intensification to an extent.

The main problem is that Fiji is still experiencing major flooding from the last depression - there are thousands trapped there that cannot get to the airport to get a flight out - there has been over 20 inches of rain in Nadi over the last 4-5 days. It has eased overnight but it looks likely that another lot is coming. Obviously the closer this thing gets to Fiji the worse it will be.

Weather authorities in Fiji are notoriously slow to react and identify issues - the recent flooding was hardly even predicted and no warnings issued. I have a number of people in Fiji trying to leave and just want some decent information, they are not in any danger but would like to know when they can leave.

PS: No April Fools Joke - it is already April 2 here!
As an appointed (by Al Gore) information officer, I can now announce that (after a thorough inventory that is now closed) it has been shown that the thermometers used by HadCRU, NOAA and NASA have been upside down all years so our planet is not as hot as previously thought.

Consensus still prevails in the case of satellite measurements vs. other measurements, as it also emerged that the satellites have been upside down and driving in the wrong orbit for 30 years.

Here is the correct global temperature anomaly for the years 1950-2010 according to HadCRUT:



And the global temperature anomaly map for the year 2010 (from GISS/NASA):


SPC day 4-8 outlook
------------------------------------------------- -
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KS AND N TX ON WED/D4...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...BUT ONGOING PRECIPITATION INCLUDING STORMS IS LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN WHERE SEVERE WILL OCCUR. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING WITH DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN...IT APPEARS EXPECTED SEVERE COVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...SOME SEVERE WIND OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD ON THUR/D5...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY FROM AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SEVERE AS WELL AS MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND ALSO HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A NERN TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE ANY AREAS.

FOR FRI D6...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD. THE QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWING 50S TO LOWER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON D6. THIS TROUGH THEN EJECTS NEWD WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2012

----------------------------------------------
sounds good :)
I'm not predicting anything until at least May.The models seem confused as to what will truly happen.However at this point in time I'm not buying a strong or moderate El nino.Maybe a weak one at most.That's all I'm saying.
Quoting Xandra:
As an appointed (by Al Gore) information officer, I can now announce that (after a thorough inventory that is now closed) it has been shown that the thermometers used by HadCRU, NOAA and NASA have been upside down all years so our planet is not as hot as previously thought.

Consensus still prevails in the case of satellite measurements vs. other measurements, as it also emerged that the satellites have been upside down and driving in the wrong orbit for 30 years.

Here is the correct global temperature anomaly for the years 1950-2010 according to HadCRUT:



And the global temperature anomaly map for the year 2010 (from GISS/NASA):


Was that an april fools?
Quoting weatherh98:
Was that an april fools?

What do you think. ;)
Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
HOW CAN THEY PREDICT HOW MANY STORMS WE WILL GET MONTHS FROM NOW WHEN THEY CANT EVEN PREDICT WHEN OR WHERE A STORM WILL GO OR WHAT IT WILL WHEN WE HAVE ONE?


It's easy.
Global warming. April foolssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
208. txjac
Quoting hurricaneoz:
Hi,

Usually only check this blog out in the hurricane season. Was interested in getting the experts on here, thoughts on this developing tropical storm in the Pacific.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirg mscol.html

Officially this is only classed as a tropical depression but seems to have the signature of a tropical storm to me. The other issue is its course. Fiji authorities have it going well to the south but its recent movement seems to be ESE rather than the forecast SE. It is moving rather quickly - around 25Mph which will limit intensification to an extent.

The main problem is that Fiji is still experiencing major flooding from the last depression - there are thousands trapped there that cannot get to the airport to get a flight out - there has been over 20 inches of rain in Nadi over the last 4-5 days. It has eased overnight but it looks likely that another lot is coming. Obviously the closer this thing gets to Fiji the worse it will be.

Weather authorities in Fiji are notoriously slow to react and identify issues - the recent flooding was hardly even predicted and no warnings issued. I have a number of people in Fiji trying to leave and just want some decent information, they are not in any danger but would like to know when they can leave.

PS: No April Fools Joke - it is already April 2 here!


Wanted to bring this to the next page so some on here could possibly help
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not predicting anything until at least May.The models seem confused as to what will truly happen.However at this point in time I'm not buying a strong or moderate El nino.Maybe a weak one at most.That's all I'm saying.

I stated the same point earlier...the models will not get a full grasp on what ENSO conditions will occur until closer to the hurricane season
Quoting Bergeron:


It's easy.


I hear they do it with magic. And goat sacrifice. It's kinda messy yeah but the NHC has THE best goat stew in its cafeteria.
BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back! Now I know it's getting real close to hurricane season when it's time to break out the HeadOn!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.
Quoting dogsgomoo:


I hear they do it with magic. And goat sacrifice. It's kinda messy yeah but the NHC has THE best goat stew in it's cafeteria.


lol!
Quoting weatherh98:
Was that an april fools?

Yeah...remember also that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record
Quoting CybrTeddy:
BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back already!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.


NOBODY immitates SPLbeater...it cant happen. lol
Quoting nigel20:

I stated the same point earlier...the models will not get a full grasp on what ENSO conditions will occur until closer to the hurricane season
The modles have been flip flopping between warm neutral and El nino.And some just down right predict El nino.I thik by late May if things look like we may have an El nino then we could be looking at an average to below average hurricane season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back! Now I know it's getting real close to hurricane season when it's time to break out the HeadOn!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.

It's too early to go through this routine!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's too early to go through this routine!


i will get to see the entire 6 months of troll season this time!
Quoting washingtonian115:
The modles have been flip flopping between warm neutral and El nino.And some just down right predict El nino.I thik by late May if things look like we may have an El nino then we could be looking at an average to below average hurricane season.

Agreed
Quoting SPLbeater:


i will get to see the entire 6 months of troll season this time!

Just watch out for 500 emails you will not be able to delete in your inbox, and accept that fact that the blog will be broke sometimes because a hacker troll has messed up. Get used to the fact that we'll see hundreds of consecutive posts in the comment section by the same troll, and you can't ignore it.

Fun..
221. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's too early to go through this routine!


Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Canada.
Oh my that face....Somebody is mad...
Quoting txjac:


Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman

I would if I could, but, unfortunately, I know nothing about tropical systems in that region of the world.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Canada.

That's funny!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh my that face....Somebody is mad...

Lol.
Quoting txjac:


Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman
Quoting txjac:


Wanted to bring this to the next page so some on here could possibly help


Let me take a look at things
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just watch out for 500 emails you will not be able to delete in your inbox, and accept that fact that the blog will be broke sometimes because a hacker troll has messed up. Get used to the fact that we'll see hundreds of consecutive posts in the comment section by the same troll, and you can't ignore it.

Fun..


Fun? sounds like a swat team determine dto shut this place down to me!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back! Now I know it's getting real close to hurricane season when it's time to break out the HeadOn!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.

There's never a bad time for hurricane season!

Or HeadOn...
Will the EPAC get early developments before May 15? I am not saying is going to go ahead and develop, but I found somewhat interesting the area of convection located in the far Eastern Pacific South of Panama and Costa Rica.

Tonight's discussion:

FURTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ALONG A STATIONARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CENTRAL
PANAMA TO 06N90W...AND THEN SW T0 04N95W. THE TROUGH MAY
ACTUALLY BE AN INCIPIENT WEAK MONSOON TROUGH...BUT SCATTEROMETER
DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW S
OF THE AXIS. CONVECTIVE GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE AIDED BY A BROAD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 09N85W TO 05N82W
AND TO 02N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-92W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W MAINLY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN ISTHMUS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH. ALSO...LONG TERM SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVED HAS MOVED INTO THAT PORTION OF THE ERN PACIFIC FURTHER
ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION CLUSTERS THERE.


Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There's never a bad time for hurricane season!

Or HeadOn...

Apply directly to the forehead.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Get your anti-troll images for hurricane season here! Buy 1 get the rest FREE!!!



I'll take OVER9000 Futurama Fry and OVER9000 Y U NO guy meme pictures!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Apply directly to the forehead.

Thanks for the tip... I wasn't sure
Hey y'all...checking back in. That GOM t-storm blob keeps on flaring...but the shear is high...

However...the NHC has added a surface trough to the disturbance on the TAFB analysis at 8 PM....
Quoting txjac:


Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman


Thanks for trying txjac - seems like we don't have the 'right' experts on here tonight.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Get your anti-troll images for hurricane season here! Buy 1 get the rest FREE!!!




























Lol...troll exterminator
Get your weather memes here for hurricane season! Buy one get the rest FREE!!!!









Quoting hurricaneoz:
Hi,

Usually only check this blog out in the hurricane season. Was interested in getting the experts on here, thoughts on this developing tropical storm in the Pacific.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirg mscol.html

Officially this is only classed as a tropical depression but seems to have the signature of a tropical storm to me. The other issue is its course. Fiji authorities have it going well to the south but its recent movement seems to be ESE rather than the forecast SE. It is moving rather quickly - around 25Mph which will limit intensification to an extent.

The main problem is that Fiji is still experiencing major flooding from the last depression - there are thousands trapped there that cannot get to the airport to get a flight out - there has been over 20 inches of rain in Nadi over the last 4-5 days. It has eased overnight but it looks likely that another lot is coming. Obviously the closer this thing gets to Fiji the worse it will be.

Weather authorities in Fiji are notoriously slow to react and identify issues - the recent flooding was hardly even predicted and no warnings issued. I have a number of people in Fiji trying to leave and just want some decent information, they are not in any danger but would like to know when they can leave.

PS: No April Fools Joke - it is already April 2 here!

Answering because no one else has. In a way, I think you answered your own question.

Comment 219. at HadesGodWyvern's wublog has what looks like the latest official advisory. Tropical storm warning. There are gale and wind warnings and a flood warning up. Loop you posted looks like it is moving SE and the center will pass SW of Fiji main islands, but I am no expert. Seems they're gonna get more heavy rain and wind soon even without a direct hit. As far as when they can get out, I have no idea. Mightn't it be up to island authorities?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Will the EPAC get early developments before May 15? I am not saying is going to go ahead and develop, but I found somewhat interesting the area of convection located in the far Eastern Pacific South of Panama and Costa Rica.

Tonight's discussion:

FURTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ALONG A STATIONARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CENTRAL
PANAMA TO 06N90W...AND THEN SW T0 04N95W. THE TROUGH MAY
ACTUALLY BE AN INCIPIENT WEAK MONSOON TROUGH...BUT SCATTEROMETER
DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW S
OF THE AXIS. CONVECTIVE GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE AIDED BY A BROAD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 09N85W TO 05N82W
AND TO 02N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-92W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W MAINLY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN ISTHMUS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH. ALSO...LONG TERM SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVED HAS MOVED INTO THAT PORTION OF THE ERN PACIFIC FURTHER
ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION CLUSTERS THERE.



We may see developement before may 15 if the shear across that region decreases
Lots of warmth heat around the Great Plains today, with several hundred high temperature records broken. Sioux City, IA, reached 93 today, beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been so warm there. Valentine, NE, hit 91, also beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been that hot there. Sioux Falls, SD, reached 89, ditto. And so on and so forth all throughout a number of states.

I'm just now over the past several days starting to see more articles about low soil moisture due to the persistent heat, and--more importantly--what that could mean for the spring and summer ahead. Yikes.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lots of warmth heat around the Great Plains today, with several hundred high temperature records broken. Sioux City, IA, reached 93 today, beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been so warm there. Valentine, NE, hit 91, also beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been that hot there. Sioux Falls, SD, reached 89, ditto. And so on and so forth all throughout a number of states.

I'm just now over the past several days starting to see more articles about low soil moisture due to the persistent heat, and--more importantly--what that could mean for the spring and summer ahead. Yikes.
How did you do that?
Quoting hurricaneoz:


Thanks for trying txjac - seems like we don't have the 'right' experts on here tonight.


Oz, most of my sites are down or under update...from what I can make out of current steering and water vapor and low level satellite, the area 95P, I believe you're asking about, is currently being steered in a general ESE or just E of SE, and based on water vapor (as my steering sites are down), it should continue just west of Fiji on a continued SE-ESE direction. It does have an upper level anticyclone overhead, so I would imagine further organization and strengthening is likely. Haven't had a chance to see what seas are going to look like, and unless steering is due to change, I feel the center should remain over water. I don't know what winds are like there right now, or the wind radii. It's just hard to tell anything else without and guidance as far as future steering or wind radii, however if wind shear stays as it is, and the anticyclone remains above it, look for strengthening.
Quoting SPLbeater:


NOBODY immitates SPLbeater...it cant happen. lol


Oh there's plenty I know of lol
Long time, no type canes. How are you doing?
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah...remember also that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record


Notice that in the years I've been on this planet it has been noticeably warmer just saying ya know

IM HOT
Quoting hurricaneoz:


Thanks for trying txjac - seems like we don't have the 'right' experts on here tonight.


I just saw your post on the last page...and looked at the satellite animation you provided....

First I can say that yes...it does indeed look like a tropical storm instead of a depression....but the more objective method of figuring out strength from satellite imagery is the Dvorak T-numbers...which I don't know how to retrieve for that region (usually I rely on others on this blog to post T-numbers). When I checked the Navy NRL site...it had as Invest 95P? So was this recently upgraded to a depression?

Trying not to be ignorant...I looked up where Fiji is located because I am not too familiar with the geography in that area. That satellite animation you posted shows a SE track with the system center expected to pass west of Fiji (that is if I located the islands correctly in the satellite animation). However the cyclone is quiet large...and some of those outer NE rain bands could pass over Fiji after the center passes them to the southwest...

Its getting a lot of attention in the media outlets...for example this link. Therefore...the threat of the cyclone seems like its being taken seriously...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Apply directly to the forehead.


HeadOn...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Apply directly to the forehead.


You forgot:

Apply directly to the forehead
Apply directly to the forehead
Head on
Apply directly to the forehead
Apply directly to the foreheard
Head on...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Long time, no type canes. How are you doing?


Pretty good Geoff, being kept busy a lot. How're things with you?
Quoting caneswatch:


Oh there's plenty I know of lol


if there is someone impersonating me, i would VERY much like to know about it. :)
Quoting caneswatch:


Pretty good Geoff, being kept busy a lot. How're things with you?


Doing good. Hoping this is not our year for a storm. But, we are overdue.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER PAKHAR (T1201)
9:00 AM JST April 2 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Pakhar (1004 hPa) located at 13.0N 107.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
looks like that blob in the gulf is getting blown apart
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Doing good. Hoping this is not our year for a storm. But, we are overdue.


Yeah we are. It's been a long while since i've had to put up shutters.
Quoting SPLbeater:


if there is someone impersonating me, i would VERY much like to know about it. :)


Palm Beach Atlantic University, West Palm Beach, FL. There's plenty of people like you there.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
743 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-MSC045-109-030642-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PERL1.1.ER.120323T1755Z.120330T0645Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
743 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL TO A STAGE NEAR
14.6 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING APRIL 6TH. THE RIVER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING APRIL 8TH.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT
HONEY ISLAND SWAMP ARE INUNDATED. PROPERTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GAGE IS FLOODED THREATENING ABOUT 20 HOMES ALONG THE LEFT BANK.
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster


somewhers between A and B.

i am going with A 1/2 lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster


E) In between c and d
Quoting SPLbeater:


somewhers between A and B.

i am going with A 1/2 lol


Did you see this guy during cane season, he balled on the forecasting
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster

B or C.
The UK Met. Office has advised that there could be snow tomorrow in Scotland.....

This after the warmest march in history....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster


how about ultra lord forecaster


do you have a unicorn in the backyard too
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how about ultra lord forecaster


do you have a unicorn in the backyard too

Yes, and it feeds me doughnuts off its horn.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster


A) 50% of the blog.
B) 30% of us.
C) 10% of us.
D) 2% of us.

The 8% are trolls.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A) 50% of the blog.
B) 30% of us.
C) 10% of us.
D) 2% of us.

The 8% are trolls.

but what category do I fit in? lol.

I'm just asking because I've been getting a lot of private emails lately saying I suck at forecasting and I should just leave.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, and it feeds me doughnuts off its horn.

"Marvelis."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster


Better than C, but not quite D... I would humbly consider myself in between B and C.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but what category do I fit in? lol.

I'm just asking because I've been getting a lot of private emails lately saying I suck at forecasting and I should just leave.

I'm guessing those e-mails are probably from trolls who are jealous of your ability... You're between B/C, better than most on here
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A) 50% of the blog.
B) 30% of us.
C) 10% of us.
D) 2% of us.

The 8% are trolls.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but what category do I fit in? lol.

I'm just asking because I've been getting a lot of private emails lately saying I suck at forecasting and I should just leave.


Haha I'm an A, and a d is Levi.

It's prolly trolls don't worry about it...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but what category do I fit in? lol.

I'm just asking because I've been getting a lot of private emails lately saying I suck at forecasting and I should just leave.


I get those too, a lot more than you'd think. I just ignore them and continue on tracking the storms because when it comes down to it, only a select few are trained in what they talk about - you and I, as well as everyone else just sit down and listen and make our own interpretations of those forecasts and what the models are generally saying.

We're armchair Meteorologists.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.htm l
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster

Medioexpert
266. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:19 AM GMT on April 02, 2012 +1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how about ultra lord forecaster


do you have a unicorn in the backyard too


Yes, and it feeds me doughnuts off its horn.

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 45 Comments: 13855


well as long as you are not wearing the bacon tuxedo you should be ok
I wouldn't have used the term "mediocre for C. That doesn't sound like a term relative to the level of skill. Sounds more like an insult.
Quoting SPLbeater:


somewhers between A and B.

i am going with A 1/2 lol

Woah...Am I really that bad?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but what category do I fit in? lol.

I'm just asking because I've been getting a lot of private emails lately saying I suck at forecasting and I should just leave.


you arent lame at forecasting. your similar to me...but a percentage better(maybe 40-60% lol). You WANNA BE a forecaster, but not. And you have most, if not all qualities of an AMATURE forecaster IMO. you would be foolish to not pursue a weather career:)

thats why i said A 1/2 :D
Quoting PedleyCA:
I wouldn't have used the term "mediocre for C. That doesn't sound like a term relative to the level of skill. Sounds more like an insult.

Mediocre usually means of moderate quality, or average.
I'd give you a "C," but I wouldn't call you Mediocre in the same phrase.
Quoting SPLbeater:


you arent lame at forecasting. your similar to me...but a percentage better(maybe 40-60% lol). You WANNA BE a forecaster, but not. And you have most, if not all qualities of an AMATURE forecaster IMO. you would be foolish to not pursue a weather career:)

thats why i said A 1/2 :D

I mean wannabe in the sense that I cannot forecast at all and I just try to imitate other people's forecasts.
I'm pretty sure this is legit..
By Jim Forsyth

Sun Apr 1, 2012 7:27pm EDT

(Reuters) - The National Weather Service on Monday plans to begin a new initiative in Kansas and Missouri designed to make people in Tornado Alley sit up and take notice when potentially devastating twisters are headed their way. Under the new system, tornado warnings will be accompanied by stark language like, "mass devastation is highly likely, making the area unrecognizable to survivors," according to the National Weather Service. Or even: "This storm is not survivable." "We call this 'impact-based warning," Dan Hawblitzel, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Pleasant Hill, Missouri, said on Sunday. "The idea is to better convey the impact that a storm is likely to have on a community." Current National Weather Service tornado warnings generally cover portions of counties and urge people in the storm's path to take action. "There is quite a lot of over-warning going on; it's kind of the car-alarm syndrome," said Col Galyean, a meteorologist with The Weather Channel. "People who live in areas where tornadoes happen frequently, like Joplin, Missouri, for example, are kind of becoming desensitized to the warnings." A tornado slammed into Joplin last May, killing 161 people in the southwestern Missouri city and causing extensive damage. The new warnings will be tested in the two states through November 30. After that, a panel of social scientists and meteorologists will examine the responses and determine whether the system should be used nationwide, Hawblitzel said.

Messages such as, "Complete destruction of entire neighborhoods is likely" may get more people posting on social networking sites and taking instant action, Hawblitzel said.

Galyean and Hawblitzel say the more detailed warnings are largely made possible because of a new type of Doppler radar called dual polarization, which can measure both the horizontal and vertical properties of a storm system and can tell forecasters whether debris is being picked up by the storm, a sure sign of a destructive system.

"Right now it's tough to tell if a storm is actually causing damage," Galyean said. "This technology allows forecasters to actually see inside the storm, and see different parts of the same storm system, to better analyze its speed, direction, and destructive potential."

"This way we can be more sure that a tornado is heading straight for a heavily populated area," Hawblitzel said.

The warnings will go out to radio and television broadcasters who issue emergency warnings, to local emergency management personnel who activate sirens and dispatch emergency services, and to listeners of National Weather Service radio.

In the San Antonio area last month, many people who were caught in the path of a damaging flurry of tornadoes said they had heard the warnings, but that it was the sight of a tornado that prompted them to take action. "Forecasters do worry about that," Galyean said. "We can get the information to the public, but the key is to get the public to pay attention."
For a second day in a row,there were no flood advisories popping up in Puerto Rico as dry air has penetrated. This is causing the rivers to reach normal stage after last months abnormal rainfall.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
853 PM AST SUN APR 1 2012

.UPDATE...TODAY WAS A VERY DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. NO
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING. THE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...DISSIPATED RAPIDLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS...IF ANY...ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
LInk to Reuters article in #283 Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I mean wannabe in the sense that I cannot forecast at all and I just try to imitate other people's forecasts.
Non comprendo, Esquela de casa
Quoting JNCali:
I'm pretty sure this is legit..
By Jim Forsyth

Sun Apr 1, 2012 7:27pm EDT

(Reuters) - The National Weather Service on Monday plans to begin a new initiative in Kansas and Missouri designed to make people in Tornado Alley sit up and take notice when potentially devastating twisters are headed their way. Under the new system, tornado warnings will be accompanied by stark language like, "mass devastation is highly likely, making the area unrecognizable to survivors," according to the National Weather Service. Or even: "This storm is not survivable." "We call this 'impact-based warning," Dan Hawblitzel, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Pleasant Hill, Missouri, said on Sunday. "The idea is to better convey the impact that a storm is likely to have on a community." Current National Weather Service tornado warnings generally cover portions of counties and urge people in the storm's path to take action. "There is quite a lot of over-warning going on; it's kind of the car-alarm syndrome," said Col Galyean, a meteorologist with The Weather Channel. "People who live in areas where tornadoes happen frequently, like Joplin, Missouri, for example, are kind of becoming desensitized to the warnings." A tornado slammed into Joplin last May, killing 161 people in the southwestern Missouri city and causing extensive damage. The new warnings will be tested in the two states through November 30. After that, a panel of social scientists and meteorologists will examine the responses and determine whether the system should be used nationwide, Hawblitzel said.

Messages such as, "Complete destruction of entire neighborhoods is likely" may get more people posting on social networking sites and taking instant action, Hawblitzel said.

Galyean and Hawblitzel say the more detailed warnings are largely made possible because of a new type of Doppler radar called dual polarization, which can measure both the horizontal and vertical properties of a storm system and can tell forecasters whether debris is being picked up by the storm, a sure sign of a destructive system.

"Right now it's tough to tell if a storm is actually causing damage," Galyean said. "This technology allows forecasters to actually see inside the storm, and see different parts of the same storm system, to better analyze its speed, direction, and destructive potential."

"This way we can be more sure that a tornado is heading straight for a heavily populated area," Hawblitzel said.

The warnings will go out to radio and television broadcasters who issue emergency warnings, to local emergency management personnel who activate sirens and dispatch emergency services, and to listeners of National Weather Service radio.

In the San Antonio area last month, many people who were caught in the path of a damaging flurry of tornadoes said they had heard the warnings, but that it was the sight of a tornado that prompted them to take action. "Forecasters do worry about that," Galyean said. "We can get the information to the public, but the key is to get the public to pay attention."

Yes, this is real. I like the idea, but I'm also a little concerned about one issue that may arise. The first is the choice of wording. What if the phrase "unsurvivable above ground" is used, and somebody happens to survive. Then they will think they will survive every time a tornado comes (which I hope you only have to live through once if you even have to experience one). That will also continue the issue that NWS is "crying wolf".
Quoting JNCali:
Non comprendo, Esquela de casa

I don't speak spanish, sorry. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, this is real. I like the idea, but I'm also a little concerned about one issue that may arise. The first is the choice of wording. What if the phrase "unsurvivable above ground" is used, and somebody happens to survive. Then they will think they will survive every time a tornado comes (which I hope you only have to live through once if you even have to experience one).
Yeah, there is no way to pull this off.. if you don't take cover when the siren is blaring you are rolling the dice.. and so many people do not have access to good protection anyway.. And remember Katrina? People had days to get outta the storm path...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster

Probably B or C.
Quoting caneswatch:


Yeah we are. It's been a long while since i've had to put up shutters.


You help me and I will help you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't speak spanish, sorry. :P
WU Mail
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I mean wannabe in the sense that I cannot forecast at all and I just try to imitate other people's forecasts.


oh. well in that case, B 1/3 lol
I could be under a Severe Thunderstorm watch pretty soon. Severe storms have already formed in central Indiana.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN IND...SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020123Z - 020230Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO HAVE COMMENCED WITH
SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING ALONG A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM AROUND 30 S CMH TO 35
N IND...WITH SEVERAL CELLS FORMING IN THE PAST 45 MINUTES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
NEAR SURFACE-BASED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ILN RAOB ALONG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN WITH THE
PRIMARY RISK BEING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 04/02/2012


ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON 40128492 39708306 39288252 38908259 38688289 38608319
38748420 39028502 39508597 40068617 40298599 40128492
Tomorrow evening Venus will be in the Pleiades.

Quoting JNCali:
WU Mail

Oh, I gotcha ;)
I found it interesting to see the location of the jet-stream using infrared satellite imagery.



Also...new Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I found it interesting to see the location of the jet-stream using infrared satellite imagery.



Also...new Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued.



since i havnt been here long and really dont have a good judgment on your foracasting abilities, would you accept a test from me?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Tomorrow evening Venus will be in the Pleiades.



Quoting SPLbeater:


since i havnt been here long and really dont have a good judgment on your foracasting abilities, would you accept a test from me?

What kind of test?
Quoting JNCali:
I'm pretty sure this is legit..
By Jim Forsyth

Sun Apr 1, 2012 7:27pm EDT

(Reuters) - The National Weather Service on Monday plans to begin a new initiative in Kansas and Missouri designed to make people in Tornado Alley sit up and take notice when potentially devastating twisters are headed their way. Under the new system, tornado warnings will be accompanied by stark language like, "mass devastation is highly likely, making the area unrecognizable to survivors," according to the National Weather Service. Or even: "This storm is not survivable." "We call this 'impact-based warning," Dan Hawblitzel, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Pleasant Hill, Missouri, said on Sunday. "The idea is to better convey the impact that a storm is likely to have on a community." Current National Weather Service tornado warnings generally cover portions of counties and urge people in the storm's path to take action. "There is quite a lot of over-warning going on; it's kind of the car-alarm syndrome," said Col Galyean, a meteorologist with The Weather Channel. "People who live in areas where tornadoes happen frequently, like Joplin, Missouri, for example, are kind of becoming desensitized to the warnings." A tornado slammed into Joplin last May, killing 161 people in the southwestern Missouri city and causing extensive damage. The new warnings will be tested in the two states through November 30. After that, a panel of social scientists and meteorologists will examine the responses and determine whether the system should be used nationwide, Hawblitzel said.

Messages such as, "Complete destruction of entire neighborhoods is likely" may get more people posting on social networking sites and taking instant action, Hawblitzel said.

Galyean and Hawblitzel say the more detailed warnings are largely made possible because of a new type of Doppler radar called dual polarization, which can measure both the horizontal and vertical properties of a storm system and can tell forecasters whether debris is being picked up by the storm, a sure sign of a destructive system.

"Right now it's tough to tell if a storm is actually causing damage," Galyean said. "This technology allows forecasters to actually see inside the storm, and see different parts of the same storm system, to better analyze its speed, direction, and destructive potential."

"This way we can be more sure that a tornado is heading straight for a heavily populated area," Hawblitzel said.

The warnings will go out to radio and television broadcasters who issue emergency warnings, to local emergency management personnel who activate sirens and dispatch emergency services, and to listeners of National Weather Service radio.

In the San Antonio area last month, many people who were caught in the path of a damaging flurry of tornadoes said they had heard the warnings, but that it was the sight of a tornado that prompted them to take action. "Forecasters do worry about that," Galyean said. "We can get the information to the public, but the key is to get the public to pay attention."


this would be more effective if they developed a profanity scale to go along with their warning system...that would get people's attention
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What kind of test?


Predict the weather for my county for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday(April 4, 5, 6th). i will give you details in a mail message if you accept it :D
Quoting SPLbeater:


Predict the weather for my county for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday(April 4, 5, 6th). i will give you details in a mail message if you accept it :D

Sure?
TA13 already mentioned it, but WW 125 has been issued with hail being the main threat.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA
EXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF CINCINNATI OHIO TO 70 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CINCINNATI OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG A SWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT AND SPREAD ESEWD FROM INDIANA INTO SW OH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A FEED OF MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NEAR 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
THOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH
TIME...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30035.


...THOMPSON
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure?


you gots mail, xD
Thanks to NCHurricane2009, Bergeron, Barefootontherocks and txjac for your input on the developing tropical storm approaching Fiji.

As you have probably worked out (once you found Fiji) getting info in that part of the world is pretty difficult. If something like that was in your part of the world hurricane hunters would have been buzzing around for hours by now.

Someone asked about Dvorak numbers: Link

Link to Fiji Bureau of Meteorology: Link

SST are at 30 Degrees - plenty warm enough for intensification.

It does look like a large system that is going to bring plenty of rain even to regions quite some distance away.
For info on the Fiji system, try their met office.

http://www.met.gov.fj/

Current vis. image:



Recent surface map:


Yeah...thats most likely giving out hail stones to people.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but what category do I fit in? lol.

I'm just asking because I've been getting a lot of private emails lately saying I suck at forecasting and I should just leave.
First the question is not whether you suck, but whether you suck as much as you used to. If your answer is no, then you are learning something and should stay.

If your answer is yes, you should still stay, as long as you enjoy being on the blog and forecasting. Nobody who comes to this blog has a right to tell others to go away, no matter how bad their forecasting is. Only the Doc and his appointees have that right.

My instinct re the emails is u r making somebody else look bad, or getting more attention than whoever it is that wants u to leave. My stubborn instinct in a case like that is to stay just to spite the malicious mailer....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I mean wannabe in the sense that I cannot forecast at all and I just try to imitate other people's forecasts.


You get high marks from me, and I'm a tough marker. I respect your opinions. I guess you'd call that a 'C', for what it's worth.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster
Between C and D. I think your forecasting skills are equivalent and maybe even a bit better than someone like Reed Timmer. The problem with Reed is that he tends to exaggerate events so it hard to tell actually how good he is at forecasting. But I can say with confidence you are better than at least 99.5% of the global population at forecasting weather. I think you should create your own website in the same format as I would. I sent a email to a user explaining my plans on it. Would like to know what you think.


I am very serious about it but I am mainly planning to start such a business when I graduate from college or maybe a bit before. I have a long way (Still a High School student) to go before I am at the level at which I could produce a forecast without any help such as models, ect. What I think would be a great idea for now is if I could gather the resources for a general blog/weather resource site. I would basically create a site for weather enthusiast that would allow them to post blogs in a better format than what Wunderground has to offer (Making it more available to view would also be a part of this). I think the actual weather forecast could happen if the site is initially successful. Also have easy tools to provide streamed information such as NEXRAD & possible level 2 data radar.

As for blog tools I would like to have an easy to understand and outstanding interface. Examples of this would be including features of word that the site seems to lack like different front types, colors,ect. Of course this is very little but I think this is how a site should start off. Have very little but listen to your user and add their suggestions. Also have daily video chats with the community about certain topics ect. My ideal site is not one I create but the one I help to create from user feedback.

I cut parts of the Email out so if some things see missing that's why.

Edit: G'night everyone! TA13 if you would like to respond just PM me.
night all
I'd give TA13 a C, though Mediocre is the wrong word.

I'd still a B, need to work on my skills. :D

P.S. Don't let other people decide if you leave, TA13. You are valuable to this site.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE, CATEGORY 1 (19F)
12:00 PM FST April 2 2012
======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.


At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne, Category One (995 hPa) located at 19.8S 172.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 18 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared and visible imagery with peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM in northeast quadrant
180 NM in southeast quadrant
120 NM in southwest quadrant
150 NM in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good in past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow restricted to the west of the system center but remains good elsewhere. The system lies in a low to moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeastward by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap giving DT=3.0. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further development.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 22.4S 176.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 26.5S 179.6W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 33.9S 173.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Daphne will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
1st of all I don't need other peoples opinion as to what I am when it comes to predicting weather.And 2nd of all the only people that decide wheather I leave this site or not are the admin.Not the bloggers...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm just curious, but how would you guys describe my forecasting (tropical and severe) capabilities?

A. Wannabe forecaster
B. Amateur forecaster
C. Mediocre forecaster
D. Expert forecaster


Depends on your niche. You seem to be better at tropical meteorology, but an objective evaluation of your overall forecasting skills leads me to say C.
Although that does bring to mind something I'm curious about.

Using Cody's grouping, how would you guys rate my forecasting? Criticize if you want, constructive or otherwise.
Quoting hurricaneoz:
Thanks to NCHurricane2009, Bergeron, Barefootontherocks and txjac for your input on the developing tropical storm approaching Fiji.

As you have probably worked out (once you found Fiji) getting info in that part of the world is pretty difficult. If something like that was in your part of the world hurricane hunters would have been buzzing around for hours by now.

Someone asked about Dvorak numbers: Link

Link to Fiji Bureau of Meteorology: Link

SST are at 30 Degrees - plenty warm enough for intensification.

It does look like a large system that is going to bring plenty of rain even to regions quite some distance away.


Someone's posted on here....the depression near Fiji has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Daphne. I am wondering why this isn't on the front page of wunderground.com/tropical?!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Someone's posted on here....the depression near Fiji has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Daphne. I am wondering why this isn't on the front page of wunderground.com/tropical?!


Is official now. It's Tropical Cyclone Daphne.

GALE WARNING 019 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 02/0159 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE [995HPA} CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.8 SOUTH 172.7 EAST AT 020100 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.8S 172.7E at 020100 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 175.7W AT 021200 UTC
AND NEAR 25.9S 179.4W AT 030000 UTC

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ


THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Although that does bring to mind something I'm curious about.

Using Cody's grouping, how would you guys rate my forecasting? Criticize if you want, constructive or otherwise.


Dude, you just plain stink. LOL.

There's my April Fool's. :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Although that does bring to mind something I'm curious about.

Using Cody's grouping, how would you guys rate my forecasting? Criticize if you want, constructive or otherwise.


I think you are very close to TA13 with your forecasts
Everybody on this blog is an A. Just the way it is and nothing wrong with that.
Quoting bappit:
Everybody on this blog is an A. Just the way it is and nothing wrong with that.


I disagree. Are Drak, Levi, and StormW (when he was here) A's? Degrees can only do so much. Even atmoaggie, a certified meteorologist, once told me that some of us here are probably more knowledgeable, or at least experienced, than he is, even though most of us lack degrees, simply because most forms of meteorological study don't focus so much on application as they do theory.
Sweet TRMM pass of Daphne~ click pic for loop
Check out the gulf tonight.. click pic for loop.. If it wasn't 40-50kts shear we'd be doom.

Cloudsat got a pass on that trough in the Gulf of Mexico.

Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat got a pass on that trough in the Gulf of Mexico.



Sheared thunderstorms, anyone?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Although that does bring to mind something I'm curious about.

Using Cody's grouping, how would you guys rate my forecasting? Criticize if you want, constructive or otherwise.


F- ;)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


F- ;)


For fabulous? I'll take it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


For fabulous? I'll take it.


Hahaha, how you doin kori?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hahaha, how you doin kori?


Good, but tired. You?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good, but tired. You?


Good as well, just getting done with a thesis paper for one of my classes :/
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE, CATEGORY 1 (19F)
18:00 PM FST April 2 2012
======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS, STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF VITI LEVU.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne, Category One (995 hPa) located at 21.3S 173.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 20 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM in northeast quadrant
180 NM in southeast quadrant
120 NM in southwest quadrant
150 NM in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow restricted to the west of the system center but remains good elsewhere. The system lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered southeastwards by northwesterly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap giving DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 25.0S 177.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 29.1S 178.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 34.1S 172.5W - 30 knots (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Daphne will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 AM EDT MON APR 2 2012

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-022000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0004.120403T0400Z-120403T1200Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
308 AM EDT MON APR 2 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES.

* TIMING...TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
delphne is really close to tavarua fiji http://magicseaweed.com/Tavarua-Surf-Report/669/ here is the surf report
Quoting KoritheMan:


I disagree. Are Drak, Levi, and StormW (when he was here) A's? Degrees can only do so much. Even atmoaggie, a certified meteorologist, once told me that some of us here are probably more knowledgeable, or at least experienced, than he is, even though most of us lack degrees, simply because most forms of meteorological study don't focus so much on application as they do theory.


Kori, you do a great job.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Although that does bring to mind something I'm curious about.

Using Cody's grouping, how would you guys rate my forecasting? Criticize if you want, constructive or otherwise.

Better than C, but not quite D. ;)
Extreme weather in Zambia. Crops destroyed, a few homes collapsed.

Possible Meteor over New Zealand.
Good Morning.
The Tropical Atlantic is looking rather Cloudy.
A little early for that, I'd say!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 AM EDT MON APR 2 2012


LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NEXT MONDAY)...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LONG WAVE OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER BOTH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHEASTERN COASTS AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER WILL BE A CLOSED LOW
FEATURE ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF EXITING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA
WILL INITIALLY BE OF A MAINLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME
INDICATION THAT SOME WEAK ENERGY MAY BE RIDING THE ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND
THEN DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA/SE COAST ON
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PARENT UPPER ENERGY WE WILL ALSO FIND A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DO NOT HAVE
COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
SHORTWAVE PATH A BIT FURTHER EAST/AWAY FROM OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DROPS ITS ENERGY RIGHT DOWN OVER THE PENINSULA.
EITHER WAY...AT LEAST SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REGION-WIDE FOR FRIDAY. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO VERIFY THEN THE
THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WOULD ALSO EXIST. 02/00Z RUN SHOWS
HEALTHY QG FORCING ALIGNED WITH 35-45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.


SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH. GRADIENT LOOKS TO
BECOME QUITE TIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING
ROUGH/POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. OVER LAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING OUR ZONES WITHIN
THE FAST EASTERLY FLOW.

Big day for hail...







Looks like it's going to be a wet April across FL and the Caribbean. Very rare to see this type of upward motion in April. This is something you would typically see in the summer.



Forecast today in Orlando 92 and then 93 tomorrow. These are highs you would see in June and what's more impressive it's going to be like this all week with even the threat come mid to late week of some strong thunderstorms maybe severe if the Euro is correct about dropping this upper low over FL.
I find this quite interesting, lol.

SPC said this was cause of diurnal thunderstorms and dewpoints widespread over 60, so some could be severe. (Notice how the line stops in central NC)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Although that does bring to mind something I'm curious about.

Using Cody's grouping, how would you guys rate my forecasting? Criticize if you want, constructive or otherwise.


We should've done this on a 1-5

Id give a 3.5

Im afraid to ask about mine because I'd prolly receive like aaaaaaaaaaa and I don't want that haha
Quoting SPLbeater:
I find this quite interesting, lol.

SPC said this was cause of diurnal thunderstorms and dewpoints widespread over 60, so some could be severe. (Notice how the line stops in central NC)


I won't even say what that looks like

It's mostly cloudy here in nola
Good morning to all. I see a little bit more warmer Tropical Atlantic west of 40W longitude. But the warmest areas are the GOM and the Western Atlantic.

Quoting SPLbeater:
Well the plumbers are here....because of that STUPID water heater...


Tell em to pull there pants up....
Well...it's something at least.

Looks like todays Enso update will have us in Nuetral. Warming seems to be happening pretty quick now across the C Pacific. We could very well be in El-Nino by late June or July.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all. I see a little bit more warmer Tropical Atlantic west of 40W longitude. But the warmest areas are the GOM and the Western Atlantic.


We're DOOMED.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like todays Enso update will have us in Nuetral. Warming seems to be happening pretty quick now across the C Pacific. We could very well be in El-Nino by late June or July.

We're DOOMED.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like it's going to be a wet April across FL and the Caribbean. Very rare to see this type of upward motion in April. This is something you would typically see in the summer.




We're DOOMED.
Quoting pottery:

We're DOOMED.


If your wondering why it's so cloudy lately in Trinidad well it's because the MJO is moving into our side of the world. So don't be surprised to see lots of convection in the Gulf & Caribbean over the coming days and maybe weeks as the MJO looks like it wants to hangout awhile.

More rain for FL in the driest month of the year. By the way I picked up 1.06" on Saturday my heaviest rain since late February.

360. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
More rain for FL in the driest month of the year. By the way I picked up 1.06" on Saturday my heaviest rain since late February.

>


I got 2.25 inches, SW of JAX.
April 1st is gone and so is my friend ! Drowned trying to save his little brother so April Fool will never be the same.
Need a long range loop of last nights meso event coming outta Mexico into TX
Houston NWS throwing up warnings for no reason on these storms. Models have no handle on these events coming outta MX.
Quoting belizeit:
April 1st is gone and so is my friend ! Drowned trying to save his little brother so April Fool will never be the same.
sad news, prayers for your friend and his family
Quoting StormTracker2K:
More rain for FL in the driest month of the year. By the way I picked up 1.06" on Saturday my heaviest rain since late February.

I hope this pans out, we really need the rain
Quoting LargoFl:
sad news, prayers for your friend and his family
Thank You life can end so fast but i,m glad its not final.
367. Jax82
Temps near 90 this week even at the beach, Is it June or April?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
443 AM EDT MON APR 2 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-022045 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
443 AM EDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
AFTERNOON PERIODS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAIN
HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
AFTERNOON PERIODS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON TUESDAY
COULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

REYNES
369. Jax82
Check out Nino 3.4

Quoting StormTracker2K:


If your wondering why it's so cloudy lately in Trinidad well it's because the MJO is moving into our side of the world. So don't be surprised to see lots of convection in the Gulf & Caribbean over the coming days and maybe weeks as the MJO looks like it wants to hangout awhile.

True.
Good morning all!
Quoting Jax82:
Check out Nino 3.4



Yes,warming to Neutral and if it continues this warming trend, El Nino could come earlier than what we thought.
April 2, 2012

April 4, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like it's going to be a wet April across FL and the Caribbean. Very rare to see this type of upward motion in April. This is something you would typically see in the summer.




We may some flooding in the Caribbean as a result of this upward motion
Florida's gonna have a warm one this week in the 90's followed by a remarkable cool-down this weekend thanks to a remarkable full latitude trough in the East that models have been gon-ho about for over a week.

Prepare for a big roller-coaster ride!
another 5-30-30 severe weather day.

This is gonna become the norm for this year.
Quoting LargoFl:
I hope this pans out, we really need the rain


If we don't get that by Friday evening, I'm afraid we're outa luck for the rest of the month as the Carabean ridge is forecasted by all the models to break-down and allow a powerful front to blast through just in time for Easter Weekend!
Hey all,, beautiful 'June' day here in Mid TN.. gonna be in the low 90's with the occasional summer cumulus floating by in the warm breeze.. For a change I can enjoy the patio in peace and quiet at least until the kids get home from school!


Jet stream phasing over the Ohio Valley, looks like a squall line if anything at all.
I wonder how many waterspouts happen when the troughs go deeply negative over the ocean. Are there any high risk days for the N Atlantic?
April 1, 2011

April 1, 2012

Nice heavy rain over central Kentucky this weekend. Cloudy today and more forecasted. Hope the severe part stays away from the towns that were hit by tornadoes already. They don't need the extra grief.

As to comments by some that somebody ought to leave the blog - I think that's out of line. People have different opinions and as much as anything this ought to be an judgment-free zone for people to try out their views and not be flamed for it. A little kindness and constructive help does a lot more good.

People left the blog last year because of mean attacks. So I hope nobody takes it personally when somebody attacks. It's happened to me and I think when it does that somebody else is really having a bad day - and I don't respond. Especially when the trolls come, and they'll be here soon.
Good Morning Everyone!

So is anyone thinking we may see some early tropical storms this year, possibly this month? I am seeing the comparisims of the heating of the ocean and the MJO maps, looks like the ingredients are coming together?
Two Meso structures move through Houston within a week. Pretty interesting to say the least..
The high temperature average for March 2012 is now the second warmest since records began in 1942 here in Montreal, Quebec.

1. 1946 with 8.8C
2. 2012 with 8.1C
3. 2007 with 7.8C
4. 1945 with 7.3C
5. 2000 with 6.8C

The low temperature average of -2C ended up being tied with 1945 for 4th warmest.

Oh how things have changed for East Texas. Great thing to see!

September 2011


March 30, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like it's going to be a wet April across FL and the Caribbean. Very rare to see this type of upward motion in April. This is something you would typically see in the summer.





Your right about the Caribbean but for the GOM and Florida I believe it'll spell dry weather as fronts will more easily slip through our region. With a +PNA -EPO ridge out west and potentially a -NAO and neutral AO with the polar vortex brushing toward southern Canada from Alaska! April will definitely be payback-time for many in the East!
388. txjac
Quoting belizeit:
April 1st is gone and so is my friend ! Drowned trying to save his little brother so April Fool will never be the same.


OMG, I am so sorry. Did his brother manage to be saved?
Quoting nigel20:
April 2, 2012

April 4, 2011


3 things I noticed on those maps:

1. proto-El Nino says hello.
2. The PDO is still the same.
3. Maybe a dipole setting up in the NATL? (warm in the MDR, cold just north of the MDR, and then warm anomalies north of 40N)
Quoting weatherbro:


Your right about the Caribbean but for the GOM and Florida I believe it'll spell dry weather as fronts will more easily slip through our region. With a PNA -EPO ridge out west and potentially a -NAO and neutral AO with the polar vortex brushing toward southern Canada from Alaska! April will definitely be payback-time for many in the East!


All the models show even more rain after this week for FL.

here are this week #


The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Quoting weatherbro:


If we don't get that by Friday evening, I'm afraid we're outa luck for the rest of the month as the Carabean ridge is forecasted by all the models to break-down and allow a powerful front to blast through just in time for Easter Weekend!
yes I believe your right there, well fingers crossed for friday
393. MTWX
Pollen forecast... Anyone want to trade places with me?? Right now I want to dig my sinuses out with a pitchfork!!

Is this the strong cold front that is projected to crash into all that HOT humid air in the midatl states later on this week?..geez start watching and listening to your local warnings folks ..................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT MON APR 2 2012

COZ087-088-021630-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0009.120402T1800Z-120404T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0008.120403T0000Z-120404T0000Z/
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
INCLUDING...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD
420 AM MDT MON APR 2 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
MDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.


* LOCATION...THE UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.

* CAUSE AND TIMING...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW...ALONG WITH RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW...SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...ABOVE 7000 FEET...6 TO 10 INCHES. BELOW 7000
FEET...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY...WET AND
SLUSHY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW.

AVOID TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...LISTEN TO
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER
TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...TAKE ALONG A WINTER SURVIVAL
KIT. IF YOU BECOME STRANDED IN A RURAL AREA...STAY WITH YOUR
VEHICLE UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. TO KEEP WARM IN YOUR VEHICLE...RUN
YOUR ENGINE 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR...AND MAKE SURE THE EXHAUST PIPE
IS CLEAR OF SNOW TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.

&&

$$
Quoting weatherbro:


Your right about the Caribbean but for the GOM and Florida I believe it'll spell dry weather as fronts will more easily slip through our region. With a +PNA -EPO ridge out west and potentially a -NAO and neutral AO with the polar vortex brushing toward southern Canada from Alaska! April will definitely be payback-time for many in the East!
IMO, models are seriously misinterpreting and overstating the effect of both the positive PNA and the negative NAO. It appears temps will be closer to normal to slightly below normal for Florida and much of the east coast as mid-month arrives...but I wouldn't call it anything like "payback".

April
When did they move Chadron and Sydney into Wyoming. They were in Nebraska when I was growing up. LOL
Quoting jeffs713:


3 things I noticed on those maps:

1. proto-El Nino says hello.
2. The PDO is still the same.
3. Maybe a dipole setting up in the NATL? (warm in the MDR, cold just north of the MDR, and then warm anomalies north of 40N)


That would be tripole.
Powerful storm in the N.E. Pacific...
Quoting Neapolitan:
IMO, models are seriously misinterpreting and overstating the effect of both the positive PNA and the negative NAO. It appears temps will be closer to normal to slightly below normal for Florida and much of the east coast as mid-month arrives...but I wouldn't call it anything like "payback".

April


Yup, pattern is beginning to look very summerlike across FL with much more in the way of rain coming up up with little to no cool down from highs in the low 90's except for a couple of days later this weekend and early next week. Infact a local met said March will go as the top 10 warmest March ever and April is heading in the same direction.
NEW BLOG
look at the kansas city, MO radar. Something odd is going on.
here's the radar: