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April 27 - 30 Severe Weather Outbreak: 39 Dead, $1 Billion+ in Damage

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:24 PM GMT on May 01, 2014

The deadly and devastating U.S. severe weather outbreak of April 27 - 30, 2014, has finally drawn to a close. The death toll from nature’s 4-day rampage of deadly tornadoes, extreme flooding, and damaging severe thunderstorms has killed at least 39 people, and will end up costing more than $1 billion, according to disaster expert Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) lists 133 preliminary tornadoes over the four days in 14 states; damage surveys are on-going, and 38 of these tornadoes had been confirmed as of noon on May 1.


Figure 1. Rainfall derived from the TRMM' satellite’s Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) data is shown overlaid on GOES-EAST infrared satellite images captured on April 29, 2014 at 0402 UTC and 0532 UTC. Red symbols show the locations where numerous tornadoes were reported from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme rainfall and flooding in Pensacola and Mobile
Torrential rains on Tuesday night in Pensacola, Florida brought an all-time calendar-day record of 15.55” of rain to the city. The old calendar day record of 15.29" in October 1934 was due to a tropical storm that made landfall just to the west of the city. Mobile, Alabama saw 11.24" during the calendar day on Tuesday, their 3rd greatest calendar day total on record. The Pensacola Airport recorded a remarkable 5.68 inches of rain in just one hour ending at 10 pm Tuesday night, and numerous high-water rescues had to be performed Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. One drowning occurred, in a vehicle that tried to cross flooded Highway 29. According to a nice flood event summary from the Mobile/Pensacola NWS, the 5.68" that fell in 1 hour was between a 1 to 200 and 1 to 500 year event, and the two day estimated total for Pensacola of 20.47" lies between a 1 in 100 to 1 in 200 year event. As discussed by Andrea Thompson at Climate Central, these type of extreme precipitation events have increased in the U.S. in recent decades, are are expected to continue to increase as a warming climate puts more moisture into the atmosphere. A comparison for perspective: Wichita, Kansas is having it's second driest start to the year since 1936, with 2.01” since January 1, 2014; Pensacola received 2 1/2 times as much rain in one hour than Wichita has seen all year. Pensacola finished April with 29.53” of rain, breaking the all-time record for any month (not just April) of 24.46” set in April 2005. This also makes it the wettest year-to-date on record in Pensacola.


Figure 2. Natural gas leaks spray into the sky on Piedmont Street in the Cordova Park neighborhood in Pensacola, Florida, after the road washed out due to heavy rains on April 30, 2014. (Photo by Marianna Massey/Getty Images)


Video 1. Aerial drone footage of the Scenic Highway near Pensacola, Florida, after being washed out by extreme flooding on April 30, 2014. Another YouTube drone video here of the Pensacola flooding also shows the impressive scale of the event.

Heavy rains and flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
The storm also brought heavy rains and damaging flooding to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. The 4.97" that fell in New York City at Central Park was the Big Apple’s 2nd wettest April day on record, behind the 7.57" that fell on April 15, 2007. In Pennsylvania, during a nine-hour period that ended early Thursday, Chester County got 6.6 “ of rain, Delaware and Montgomery counties got 5.5”, and Philadelphia nearly 5 inches. At least 62 people were rescued overnight in Chester County from their vehicles, most after driving past closed road signs and barriers. Heavy rains in Baltimore caused a washout of a retaining wall, causing multiple cars to plunge down into a flooded railway line.


Figure 3. View of the Charles Village, Baltimore retaining wall collapse near 26th St on April 30, 2014. There were no injuries, but at least six cars plunged down onto the CSX railroad tracks below. According to meteorologist Justin Berk, who took the photo, local residents said they have had concerns about this wall for a long time.

Two EF-4 tornadoes from the outbreak
At least two EF-4 tornadoes have been surveyed so far from the outbreak, and there may be others once damage surveys are complete:

Vilonia, Arkansas: A violent high-end EF-4 tornado with winds of 180 - 190 mph tore through Vilonia and Mayflower, Arkansas on April 27, killing 15 people. This tornado was also the widest (3/4 mile) and longest lived (60 minutes) twister of the outbreak. There is a report that the tornado picked up a truck in Mayflower and deposited it in a field northeast of Vilonia, 27 miles away. Update: When contacted about this again by a reporter, the man who's car was transported admitted some confusion about where his car had been parked at the time of the tornado, so this remarkable story is dubious.

Louisville, Mississippi: An EF-4 with 185 mph winds hit Louisville, Mississippi on April 28. The tornado killed nine people, carved a path 35 miles long and up to 3/4 mile wide, and stayed on the ground for 56 minutes. The tornado carried a door 30 miles from Louisville and deposited it on the Mississippi State University campus.

The longest path tornado of the event was an EF-1 twister with a path length of 46 miles that stayed on the ground 46 minutes, and killed two people near Martinsburg and Kinross, Iowa on April 27.


Figure 4. Volunteers help clean up debris where homes once stood after the area was hit by a tornado April 29, 2014 in Vilonia, Arkansas. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)


Video 2. Aerial drone footage of tornado damage from April 28, 2014 in Bessemer, Alabama just west of Birmingham. The EF-2 tornado with maximum winds of 120 mph stayed on the ground 4.9 miles and hit a golf course and an apartment complex, with a near miss of the Bessemer Hospital. It’s remarkable to see the huge number of trees pulled out by their roots. According to an article in Forbes, “The FAA claims the broad authority to prohibit the ‘commercial’ use of drones, and has included the use of drones for journalism or search and rescue under that ban. The FAA’s determination comes despite having lost an enforcement action at the administrative judge level….Despite the clear value of drones in disaster response and search and rescue operations, one search and rescue group based out of Texas has been forbidden from flying their drones in search and rescue operations, prompting them to sue the federal government. That case has sent a message to all would be search and rescue groups, letting them know they should keep their drones grounded, lest they face fines for trying to help find lost persons.”

U.S. billion-dollar weather-related disasters of 2014
1) The January 5 - 8 "Polar Vortex" winter weather outbreak, which Aon Benfield estimated caused $3 billion in damage.
2) The California drought, with $3.6 billion in agricultural damages so far, as estimated by the California Farm Water Coalition.
3) Severe weather outbreak of April 27 - 30, which Aon Benfield estimated caused $1+ billion in damage.

Disaster Relief Donations Needed
The devastation from this week’s tornadoes have brought a need for donations for disaster relief. The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, is supporting the efforts of a group of local volunteers in Arkansas doing search and rescue, and needs donations. Portlight volunteers are working in tornado-hit towns to clear debris and help with other clean-up efforts. This team will also be visiting shelters and reaching out to survivors with disabilities to determine their immediate needs, whether for replacement of durable medical equipment and ramps, or for assistance with shelter and transportation issues. The Red Cross is also a great place to send your donation dollars.

This will likely be my last post until Tuesday afternoon, as I plan on taking a few days off.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. StormWx
Quoting ricderr:
Atleast we can all agree we will have el-nino which nobody on here believed me back last fall we would have in 2014.


ahem.........last fall you were looking for el nino in winter...then spring...and for over a month you have been saying any day now......now some have been following you showing the models...which last fall were showing an autumn to winter event and have now moved earlier.....same as with your super event...models just don't show it and almost every meteorologist, even those that are suggesting we could see a "super" el nino add the caveat that we have to wait and see


Oh just wait until Hurricane Season, when every day we will hear about a hurricane thats going to hit FL lol. Then it will be more fun than we can handle!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We're jinxing the season so hard right now. Watch us see a record number of major hurricanes and several landfalls.

I'm not sure it would surprise me given how the seasonal total has ended up the exact opposite of what was forecast both last year and in 2012.


That would figure, wouldn't it? I can deal with being wrong, just being utterly wrong for a third season in a row would be disconcerting.
o flippin K...
1504. sar2401
Quoting auburn:
Speaking of "Giving your source credit"It would be nice if folks using classic or copy and paste would show a post #when quoting someone.

Since Classic has never attached a post number to a quote in the past 10 years, you think users should start doing it now? That is something properly handled by software, not hundreds of users, who will never do everything the same way.
Quoting 1491. ncstorm:



..I think its quite hard to plagerize on the internet.




Plagiarism is simply taking someone's words or ideas and passing them off as your own. This happens all the time on the internet and quite frequently here.

I don't understand why people are reacting all weird to this. Just put a link up and slap some quotation marks around the part you used from another website. No it's not a rule, but it's simply good practice and takes about an extra 30 seconds of time.

Even if it's only for accuracy's sake, source the info. That way we know where it came from and can go explore the information on our own. :)

Images, charts, and graphs are usually referenced on the image anyway, this really applies to scientific information.
1506. FBMinFL
People should be careful here. Mods may have to issue a few citations.
1507. ricderr
We dont even have an El Nino yet for Pete's sake. And bubba Scott said we would have one in April, wrong wrong and wrongggggg.


psst...april would be winter :-)
1508. auburn
Again it is a respect for your fellow bloggers issue..its not a rule,and classic will remain the same and unchanged as far as I know per the request of the ones that use it..but without a reference to a quote it can become confusing to follow the conversation at times..again..my 2 cents.

Quoting 1504. sar2401:


Since Classic has never attached a post number to a quote in the past 10 years, you think users should start doing it now? That is something properly handled by software, not hundreds of users, who will never do everything the same way.
1509. sar2401
Quoting FBMinFL:
Should we use APA style for our citations? Sorry .. I am new here.

No...or, at least, it hasn't been done in my time here. When there are no severe terrestrial storms or tropical storms to get excited about, it seems inevitable that we need something else to get excited about, which means little snits break out. Anyone who's been following along with the El Nino debate (another long running snit) has read the paragraph in question about 50 times, and most of us know where it came from. That then escalated into sources and plagiarism. Kind of silly, but that's life on the blog sometimes.
I do have to say that it's getting interesting how Navy's NAVGEM and GFS show something in terms of development in the W Atlantic somewhere near the Greater Antillies and Bahamas late this week going into weekend

NAVGEM showing a TD or TS moving W from PR through Cuba like Hurricane Ike Track
While GFS is much weaker showing a Surface Trof with maybe a weak surface Low moving in the same direction but moving NW-NNW instead of moving W-WSW into Cuba like NAVGEM

This is already hitting news and tropical discussions one of such headlines are:
"We May Have To Watch The Area Just North Of Puerto Rico & The Virgin Islands For Both Low Pressure Development & Tropical Mischief Between Late This Week And Early Next Week."
Yikes! Over my head literally.Levi talks on Twitter about this.

Levi Cowan
%u200F@TropicalTidbits Large cut-off low in the tropics next weekend. Doesn't get trapped long enough to threaten subtropical development.





Quoting 1495. auburn:




Not sure Youtube lyrics are pertinent to the Drs Blog..as part of the Admins notice reads:When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.


HAHAHAHA! That is hilarious. If you actually enforced that notice there would never be more than one page of comments, even if the doc only blogged once a week.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I do have to say that it's getting interesting how Navy's NAVGEM and GFS show something in terms of development in the W Atlantic somewhere near the Greater Antillies and Bahamas late this week going into weekend

NAVGEM showing a TD or TS moving W from PR through Cuba like Hurricane Ike Track
While GFS is much weaker showing a Surface Trof with maybe a weak surface Low moving in the same direction but moving NW-NNW instead of moving W-WSW into Cuba like NAVGEM

This is already hitting news and tropical discussions one of such headlines are:
"We May Have To Watch The Area Just North Of Puerto Rico & The Virgin Islands For Both Low Pressure Development & Tropical Mischief Between Late This Week And Early Next Week."


I'd call this a decent tropical wave on the NAVGEM. GFS shows the trough. Neither are showing much development, so I doubt'll amount to anything.
Quoting 1511. Tropicsweatherpr:
Yikes! Over my head literally.Levi talks on Twitter about this.

Levi Cowan
%u200F@TropicalTidbits Large cut-off low in the tropics next weekend. Doesn't get trapped long enough to threaten subtropical development.





That's the feature I meantioned on here earlier today as the Euro cuts it off over SE FL at day 10. Euro has been very aggressive with this feature since Saturday which is unusal as its normally the GFS thats this aggresive.

Could atleast be just a INVEST

Hmm I see we got a new guy FBMinFL
Hello FBMinFL make your self comfortable don't worry about writing too professionally on here this is more or less a semi casual blogs so don't need to worry about using APA style although if you want go right ahead
What in the world I'm I sayin do what ever you want as long as it follows in or around the guidelines in the Community Standards Policy a link is provided the the Top Right part of the comment box
1516. sar2401
Quoting 1504. auburn:

Again it is a respect for your fellow bloggers issue..its not a rule,and classic will remain the same and unchanged as far as I know per the request of the ones that use it..but without a reference to a quote it can become confusing to follow the conversation at times..again..my 2 cents.


I understand your point, and I just added the post number. Since Classic gives me no reference to the post number when I quote, I must first remember to copy the post number, then insert the post number in the right place in the quote. If I forget the first step, I have to scroll back up the page, find the post, copy the post number, and then scroll back down to the comment box and insert it. What I'm suggesting is the most users aren't going to do this, regardless of how nice it would be.

Since you're a mod, I assume, perhaps wrongly, a request from you to the developers would carry more weight than one from me, which would be exactly zero. If the developers would make a modification to Classic that would carry the post number into the quote (and would probably take about five lines of code), the entire issue would be solved. Is there some way you can make this request?
1517. FBMinFL
Quoting 1515. wunderkidcayman:

Could atleast be just a INVEST

Hmm I see we got a new guy FBMinFL
Hello FBMinFL make your self comfortable don't worry about writing too professionally on here this is more or less a semi casual blogs so don't need to worry about using APA style although if you want go right ahead
What in the world I'm I sayin do what ever you want as long as it follows in or around the guidelines in the Community Standards Policy a link is provided the the Top Right part of the comment box


Thanks! I am slowly getting the hag of things. I will try to at least make a stab at sourcing info, but can't guarantee I will always remember to.

As someone once said ...

"Copy from one, it's plagiarism; copy from many, it's research" ~ Someone, circa 1776
Quoting auburn:
Again it is a respect for your fellow bloggers issue..its not a rule,and classic will remain the same and unchanged as far as I know per the request of the ones that use it..but without a reference to a quote it can become confusing to follow the conversation at times..again..my 2 cents.



GTstormChaserCaleb hasn't even posted anything for like a hour and this issue is still going.

I don't even think citing information is what got GTstormChaserCaleb upset. It was the way it was handled.

Blog members don't like being told what they can or can not do from another blog member. That's the issue, and it's not just this post today (as GTstormChaserCaleb referred back to).

Let the moderators do their job.

We all know that its a good idea to cite information. The more formal the writing, the more important the issue becomes. A meteorologist in San Antonio lost his job because he plagiarized a story that was published in the local newspaper. So plagiarisim can be a big deal on a professional level.
Quoting 1490. CybrTeddy:

IMO, the real killer this season will be this:


The majority of storms that develop out in the tropical Atlantic will remain weak due to the lack of vertical instability. This, coupled with the below average SST profiles across the Atlantic and the fact an El Nino usually brings higher sheer across the Caribbean doesn't spell well for activity. Tropical waves will be struggling for energy and then will be ripped apart once they reach the Caribbean, unless they manage to go north of the Caribbean. If that happens, they'll more than likely be thrown out to sea by troughs. IIRC, El Nino's usually bring more short-wave troughs to the east coast and encourages a recurving pattern.


Something about the climatology shown on that image has been bugging me, but I have not been able to figure out what changed. If you look at the archive page at RAMMB and look back at the vertical instability it shows:




Climatology for May is around -7, -8 which is where we currently are, but you can see that climatology has "changed" between the two graphs.

There is a statement on the RAMMB page:
Please note: for consistency, this archive contains data from a static version of the TCFP from 2009. A new archive using the current version of the TCFP is being generated and will be available soon.

But I don't see why climatology should change.
Quoting 1506. FBMinFL:

People should be careful here. Mods may have to issue a few citations.

If you have read the blog everyday for at least 5 years before you joined you would be amazed what goes on in a romper room like this. Concho Arizona, high winds, fire advisory ..the kiss of death for a day of continued spring planting..
1521. ricderr
Blog members don't like being told what they can or can not do from another blog member. That's the issue, and it's not just this post today (as GTstormChaserCaleb referred back to).


yep....some get crabbed out because they won't use the quote function
Quoting 1518. Sfloridacat5:



GTstormChaserCaleb hasn't even posted anything for like a hour and this issue is still going.

I don't even think citing information is what got GTstormChaserCaleb upset. It was the way it was handled.

Blog members don't like being told what they can or can not do from another blog member. That's the issue, and it's not just this post today (as GTstormChaserCaleb referred back to).

Let the moderators do their job.

We all know that its a good idea to cite information. The more formal the writing, the more important the issue becomes. A meteorologist in San Antonio lost his job because he plagiarized a story that was published in the local newspaper. So plagiarisim can be a big deal on a professional level.
100000000.You should have seen the e-mails Pat sent me the first week and a half I joined the site and that's all I'm gonna leave it at.I'm reading another good book today so I'll head out on the porch.It's not to bad out side.
1523. FBMinFL
Wow. That tropical instability is very low! Seems to have been the case for the past several years now, at least on average.
1524. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'd call this a decent tropical wave on the NAVGEM. GFS shows the trough. Neither are showing much development, so I doubt'll amount to anything.

Given the relatively low level of shear in the Leewards (although the vorticity is still pretty meager), it seems like a wave could get started in the area. However, it really doesn't have anywhere to go, given the high levels of shear in the Atlantic, remainder of the Caribbean, and the Gulf. It also doesn't look like the end of cold fronts penetrating into the Southeast is on the horizon yet. All in all, it looks like a hostile environment for any close to home development.
Quoting 1519. nrtiwlnvragn:



Something about the climatology shown on that image has been bugging me, but I have not been able to figure out what changed. If you look at the archive page at RAMMB and look back at the vertical instability it shows:




Climatology for May is around -7, -8 which is where we currently are, but you can see that climatology has "changed" between the two graphs.

There is a statement on the RAMMB page:
Please note: for consistency, this archive contains data from a static version of the TCFP from 2009. A new archive using the current version of the TCFP is being generated and will be available soon.

But I don't see why climatology should change.


I believe the charts now use 1949-2010 as the climatological base period

"CLIMATOLOGY:

Climatological input parameters are computed over the following time periods:

CLIM: 1949-2010" Link

I'm not sure what period was used previously, but that can certainly cause the difference.
1526. sar2401
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Something about the climatology shown on that image has been bugging me, but I have not been able to figure out what changed. If you look at the archive page at RAMMB and look back at the vertical instability it shows:




Climatology for May is around -7, -8 which is where we currently are, but you can see that climatology has "changed" between the two graphs.

There is a statement on the RAMMB page:
Please note: for consistency, this archive contains data from a static version of the TCFP from 2009. A new archive using the current version of the TCFP is being generated and will be available soon.

But I don't see why climatology should change.

I only see one graph...but I also don't understand why climatology should change.

Quoting 1511. Tropicsweatherpr:

Yikes! Over my head literally.Levi talks on Twitter about this.

Levi Cowan
%u200F@TropicalTidbits Large cut-off low in the tropics next weekend. Doesn't get trapped long enough to threaten subtropical development.






So........... will we get a little rain shower from that ? Or the GFS will back off 2 days before the event is supposed to start, LIKE IT LOVES TO DO :/
1528. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


GTstormChaserCaleb hasn't even posted anything for like a hour and this issue is still going.

I don't even think citing information is what got GTstormChaserCaleb upset. It was the way it was handled.

Blog members don't like being told what they can or can not do from another blog member. That's the issue, and it's not just this post today (as GTstormChaserCaleb referred back to).

Let the moderators do their job.

We all know that its a good idea to cite information. The more formal the writing, the more important the issue becomes. A meteorologist in San Antonio lost his job because he plagiarized a story that was published in the local newspaper. So plagiarisim can be a big deal on a professional level.

Auburn's post really had nothing to do with anything that went on previously. It was a request for those of us who use Classic to include a post number in our quoted replies. There's nothing wrong with that concept. As I attempted to point out, the steps involved in including a post number are simply too onerous for even a small number of Classic users to do so. A simple software modification would solve the problem. I will now start holding my breath....8-)

As to the other issue, users are kind of like El Nino. We have a weak El Nino, a moderate El Nino, a strong El Nino, then we have a Super El Nino. A few users here believe they fall in the Super category.
1529. ricderr
Auburn's post really had nothing to do with anything that went on previously. It was a request for those of us who use Classic to include a post number in our quoted replies. There's nothing wrong with that concept. As I attempted to point out, the steps involved in including a post number are simply too onerous for even a small number of Classic users to do so. A simple software modification would solve the problem. I will now start holding my breath....8-)

As to the other issue, users are kind of like El Nino. We have a weak El Nino, a moderate El Nino, a strong El Nino, then we have a Super El Nino. A few users here believe they fall in the Super category.



i don't use classic therefore i have no need of the post number :-)
new 12Z NAVGEM show low further S enters the caribbean between cuba and haiti then landfalls it in S cuba then shoots NE as another cold front grabs it this run is weaker obviously due to land interaction and the increasing shear with approaching front
1531. sar2401
Quoting Naga5000:


I believe the charts now use 1949-2010 as the climatological base period

"CLIMATOLOGY:

Climatological input parameters are computed over the following time periods:

CLIM: 1949-2010" Link

I'm not sure what period was used previously, but that can certainly cause the difference.

From your link, it appears that there at least three datasets for the Atlantic:

1. CLIM: 1949-2010
2. RSST,VSHD,RVOR,THDV,HDIV,MSLP,TADV: 1995-2010
3. BTWM,PCCD (N Atlantic): 1995-2010

So I'm a little lost about the statement that the TCFP uses a static version of data from 2009. Was the 2010 data incomplete, maybe? Are they about to roll the climatology forward to cover 2013? I imagine there's an explanation somewhere, I just haven't been able to find it.
1532. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:
Auburn's post really had nothing to do with anything that went on previously. It was a request for those of us who use Classic to include a post number in our quoted replies. There's nothing wrong with that concept. As I attempted to point out, the steps involved in including a post number are simply too onerous for even a small number of Classic users to do so. A simple software modification would solve the problem. I will now start holding my breath....8-)

As to the other issue, users are kind of like El Nino. We have a weak El Nino, a moderate El Nino, a strong El Nino, then we have a Super El Nino. A few users here believe they fall in the Super category.



i don't use classic therefore i have no need of the post number :-)

Ric, you fall into your own category. :-)
1533. ricderr
Ric, you fall into your own category. :-)



as it should be LOL
1534. Gearsts
Quoting 1481. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah it is bone dry from California to Texas. Texas is in for a very long summer as lakes are dangerously low right now and the Fall and Winter rains can't come fast enough. I really hope this El-Nino pulls the SW US out of this historic drought which has lasted now 3 years!


I'm curious does any other states have a map like this for lakes. I'd just like to see all the lakes in the SW states to compare how they are doing .

I leave for a few months, then come back and the entire website has changed........ Not sure if I like it yet but I reckon I don't really have much choice in the matter LOL. Although I see most of the same people are here
Quoting 1531. sar2401:


From your link, it appears that there at least three datasets for the Atlantic:

1. CLIM: 1949-2010
2. RSST,VSHD,RVOR,THDV,HDIV,MSLP,TADV: 1995-2010
3. BTWM,PCCD (N Atlantic): 1995-2010

So I'm a little lost about the statement that the TCFP uses a static version of data from 2009. Was the 2010 data incomplete, maybe? Are they about to roll the climatology forward to cover 2013? I imagine there's an explanation somewhere, I just haven't been able to find it.

Yeah, I haven't been able to find much either. Looking through the archived data, it seems like they update the base period for instability pretty frequently, but that's only from looking at the different years charts and their differences and not the actual methodology.

It's been my experience that when something changes in a product like that, usually it is from climatology base period updates or how they calculate the mean (for example a 13 month running mean versus a monthly mean).
Quoting CaribBoy:

So........... will we get a little rain shower from that ? Or the GFS will back off 2 days before the event is supposed to start, LIKE IT LOVES TO DO :/


Good afternoon everyone

It's a beautiful 86 with a few clouds hanging around here on the island today.

We spent the afternoon on Water Island yesterday. The water is unbelievably warm, feeling warmer than my shower at home!

Happy Cinco de Mayo to those who celebrate it! We knew there was a holiday in Puerto Rico because we refer to the influx of boats from there as the "Puerto Rican Navy" and they were everywhere! (Said with a smile on my face. They have such a great time when they come this way.) Some day I want to make the trip that way on our boat.

I really hope that disturbance comes to fruition. My cistern is getting dangerously low and I hate the thought of putting hundreds of dollars into a hole in the ground!!

Lindy


1539. sar2401
Quoting CarlitosAtun:


HAHAHAHA! That is hilarious. If you actually enforced that notice there would never be more than one page of comments, even if the doc only blogged once a week.

Yes, I seem to recall more than one case of song lyrics being posted here...and a heck of a lot of YouTube videos of the songs themselves.

Back in the days when it was part of my duties, I had to write speeding tickets. How many I wrote and who got one was up to "officer discretion". Say the speed limit was 40 mph. If I wrote a cite for everyone doing 41, I could expect a call from the watch commander, who had gotten calls from irate citizens. If I wrote for people doing 46 and over, most motorists understood they were going too fast, and I didn't get much grief. If I wrote for everyone doing 41 and I let my buddy in his hot pink '59 Caddy zoom through the same area at 65 and he never got a ticket, then I could expect at least a few days off without pay. This is the analogy for what I see here in terms of enforcement.
Yep here we go again



AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
GEORGIA DEPT OF NATURAL RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION DIVISION
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
228 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014

...CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTA FOR
TUESDAY MAY 6...

THE GEORGIA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES...ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION DIVISION HAS ISSUED A CODE ORANGE (UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS) AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR ATLANTA FOR
TUESDAY MAY 6.

UNDER CODE ORANGE CONDITIONS...THE OUTDOOR AIR IS LIKELY TO BE
UNHEALTHY FOR SOME PEOPLE. CHILDREN...PEOPLE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO
OZONE...AND PEOPLE WITH HEART OR LUNG DISEASE SHOULD LIMIT
PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING WHEN OZONE CONCENTRATIONS ARE HIGHEST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE AIR QUALITY INDEX PLEASE VISIT
GEORGIAAIR.ORG/SMOGFORECAST
Here is the San Juan NWS discussion that they always make very well about what some models are showing.

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE FL PENINSULA WILL
AMPLIFY OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS FORMING A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI.
THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER NE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY FILL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL DOWN AS TROF OVR THE SW ATLC
DEEPENS AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PR BY FRI. AS
CONVECTION BECOMES DEEPER IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE 0-6KM WINDS
WITH STEERING CURRENTS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON WED FROM THE SSW
FAVORING CONVECTION OVR NORTHEAST PR WED AND ERN
PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI THU AND SRN PR ON FRI.

TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SAT WITH UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
FILLING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN ALTHOUGH SPAGHETTI
PLOT INDICATES UPPER LOW COULD MEANDER FARTHER WEST OVR THE MONA
PASSAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND SOME GEFS MEMBERS. THIS
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WX AND MORE RAINFALL. USING THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THE MOST ACTIVE WX SHOULD OCCUR ON THU WITH
THE WORST CONDITIONS OVR THE USVI. THE LATEST TREND ALSO SUGGESTS
LESSER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MAINLAND PR THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. ALSO...CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING BIG SEVERE WX
PRODUCERS AND H5 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR(-11C) SO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
WEATHER GRADUALLY BEGINS TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF FILLS
AND PULLS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE.
91 in athens ga. Here it's 87F and breezy

12Z Euro is beginning to look very interesting Tropical Wise. Euro has been consistant in cutting a low off over FL while the GFS cuts it off east of the Bahamas. Quite the model fight going on in the long range. May need to watch for a sub tropical system next week "potentially"


Quoting 1535. SouthCentralTx:



I'm curious does any other states have a map like this for lakes. I'd just like to see all the lakes in the SW states to compare how they are doing .




Resevoir Levels CA.
1545. sar2401
Quoting Naga5000:

Yeah, I haven't been able to find much either. Looking through the archived data, it seems like they update the base period for instability pretty frequently, but that's only from looking at the different years charts and their differences and not the actual methodology.

It's been my experience that when something changes in a product like that, usually it is from climatology base period updates or how they calculate the mean (for example a 13 month running mean versus a monthly mean).

It sure would be nice if outfits like the WPC would have a change log with a prominent link so we didn't have to hunt all over the place for answers like this. I suspect someone there has all these answers, and anyone who wants to know just goes and asks him. It just makes it hard on us little people, who don't have that kind of access.

That being said, it looks like deja vu all over again so far for 2014. Same lack of vertical instability, dry air, and an expansive A-B high are in place again. The SAL is also extensive again, and even beginning to penetrate south of the monsoonal trough. If we actually get an El Nino in place before the end of hurricane season, it looks like a pretty dismal outlook, at least for total numbers of storms.


Link
1546. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
91 in athens ga. Here it's 87F and breezy


92 here, Stormz, although the humidity is a little higher, at 33%, compared to 22% yesterday, so a little moisture is sneaking up here. It's interesting to see how the still cooler than normal temperatures in the northern Gulf are still holding down most coastal temperatures.
1548. ricderr

12Z Euro is beginning to look very interesting Tropical Wise. Euro has been consistant in cutting a low off over FL while the GFS cuts it off east of the Bahamas. Quite the model fight going on in the long range. May need to watch for a sub tropical system next week "potentially"


ahem...it's a lot more fun when you leave out those cautionary phrases
Quoting 1540. GeorgiaStormz:

Yep here we go again



AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
GEORGIA DEPT OF NATURAL RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION DIVISION
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
228 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2014

...CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTA FOR
TUESDAY MAY 6...

THE GEORGIA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES...ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION DIVISION HAS ISSUED A CODE ORANGE (UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS) AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR ATLANTA FOR
TUESDAY MAY 6.

UNDER CODE ORANGE CONDITIONS...THE OUTDOOR AIR IS LIKELY TO BE
UNHEALTHY FOR SOME PEOPLE. CHILDREN...PEOPLE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO
OZONE...AND PEOPLE WITH HEART OR LUNG DISEASE SHOULD LIMIT
PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING WHEN OZONE CONCENTRATIONS ARE HIGHEST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE AIR QUALITY INDEX PLEASE VISIT
GEORGIAAIR.ORG/SMOGFORECAST


Although it's highly toxic, I don't believe that ozone is the most important air pollutant. I've studied non-communicable disease (NCD) causation for 30 years, and have written a very lengthy blog, with over 900 links to PubMed papers on the subject. All NCDs, such as heart disease, asthma, diabetes, Alzheimer's, schizophrenia, multiple sclerosis etc are more common in urban environments, and air pollution from motor vehicles is probably the main cause.

The evidence suggests that the harmful health effects are being caused by chemicals which bind to a receptor, called the aryl hydrocarbon receptor. These include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, such as the carcinogenic benzopyrene, benzene and metal oxides.
Quoting 1548. ricderr:

12Z Euro is beginning to look very interesting Tropical Wise. Euro has been consistant in cutting a low off over FL while the GFS cuts it off east of the Bahamas. Quite the model fight going on in the long range. May need to watch for a sub tropical system next week "potentially"


ahem...it's a lot more fun when you leave out those cautionary phrases


I have to cover myself. Gonna be a different approach from me this year. Will not post long range models past 10 days due to uproar by a couple on here.

Set up on the Euro is almost earily similar to the one we had in May 2009 which was a El-Nino year. We had a system cutoff over FL and brought over 36" of rain to some places while most got 1 to 2 feet of rain in just 10 days.

Daytona Beach had over 22" of rain that month while Bunnel just to the NW had 36" which ruined the potato crop that year in Flagler County. I picked up 18".
Quoting 1548. ricderr:


12Z Euro is beginning to look very interesting Tropical Wise. Euro has been consistant in cutting a low off over FL while the GFS cuts it off east of the Bahamas. Quite the model fight going on in the long range. May need to watch for a sub tropical system next week "potentially"


ahem...it's a lot more fun when you leave out those cautionary phrases

Come on Ric get with the program!!
1552. ricderr
I have to cover myself. Gonna be a different approach from me this year. Will not post long range models past 10 days due to uproar by a couple on here.

don't stop posting them...just wise up and quit with the gosh's and golly geee whiz.....take them for what they are.....inaccurate...but still damn interesting...when it comes to h season....i'll spend over a half hour each morning looking at models and other sites before i even come here...hell yes i look at the long range....anybody don't like it.....well....i'm sure the mods will ban me for my reaction to their displeasure :-)
Quoting 1550. StormTrackerScott:



I have to cover myself. Gonna be a different approach from me this year. Will not post long range models past 10 days due to uproar by a couple on here.

Scott that is the tail waggin the dog...Just do what you do ..There models ..you don't make em...tell folks to get over it..
Quoting 1553. Wolfberry:

Scott that is the tail waggin the dog...Just do what you do ..There models ..you don't make em...tell folks to get over it..


He's right in a way though as I did get out of hand some last year. I think I was frustuated at the fact that the hurricane season was a bust. Wanted something good to track but nothing would manage to build up due to the ever presence of dry air across the Atlantic. I hope some research is being done about this as even Dr. Grey was prediciting a hyper active season.
1555. sar2401
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Good afternoon everyone

It's a beautiful 86 with a few clouds hanging around here on the island today.

We spent the afternoon on Water Island yesterday. The water is unbelievably warm, feeling warmer than my shower at home!

Happy Cinco de Mayo to those who celebrate it! We knew there was a holiday in Puerto Rico because we refer to the influx of boats from there as the "Puerto Rican Navy" and they were everywhere! (Said with a smile on my face. They have such a great time when they come this way.) Some day I want to make the trip that way on our boat.

I really hope that disturbance comes to fruition. My cistern is getting dangerously low and I hate the thought of putting hundreds of dollars into a hole in the ground!!

Lindy



Sounds nice, Lindy. I ran into the Puerto Rican Navy a few times down there and, if nothing else, they sure like to party. If I was in the mood, I could always dinghy over to the "pack" and, with a couple of words of Spanish, I'd be pretty well taken care of for the rest of the night. :-) I sailed through the Mona Passage from the Virgins...once. It was one of the roughest sails I've ever had. Just make sure everything is battened down if you decide to give it a try. It looks like you guys might get some decent storms toward the end of the week, so your cistern might get filled. Fresh water was ungodly expensive when I was sailing. My watermaker paid for itself in two years - and it wasn't cheap.
There models OK --The WPC says again and again during monsoon,7 days from now it is going to rain like friggen Noah get on it and you know what? I gotta empty the Ark cause not a drop. I am so excited I can hardly see. I live and breathe rain because I farm. Scott, excuse me please for speaking for you, but he gets damn excited like we all do in hopes of severe weather..why the heck are we all here? We all know and many of us have paid the price of severe weather..it does not take away from either the dread or anticipation..end of rant.
1557. ricderr
Come on Ric get with the program!!



i'm with the program...that's me on the right...behind the other guy


1558. sar2401
Quoting yonzabam:


Although it's highly toxic, I don't believe that ozone is the most important air pollutant. I've studied non-communicable disease (NCD) causation for 30 years, and have written a very lengthy blog, with over 900 links to PubMed papers on the subject. All NCDs, such as heart disease, asthma, diabetes, Alzheimer's, schizophrenia, multiple sclerosis etc are more common in urban environments, and air pollution from motor vehicles is probably the main cause.

The evidence suggests that the harmful health effects are being caused by chemicals which bind to a receptor, called the aryl hydrocarbon receptor. These include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, such as the carcinogenic benzopyrene, benzene and metal oxides.

Did you find any links between smog and the occurrence of acute myelogenous leukemia? My wife died of AML in 2004 at the age of 58. She was the healthy one in the family. Ate right, exercised, never smoked, never was in a work environment with exposure to things like the benzine class chemicals. We did live in Los Angeles from 1966 until 1976, when smog was nearly at record levels. She's an interesting epidemiological case because she has an identical twin who lived her life in Ohio, in a much less polluted area, and her twin did not get AML, and is alive and healthy today. Given that, there seems to be no doubt that her AML was from some kind of environmental exposure. I've tried to get some epidemiologists interested in her case but, as usual, there aren't enough identical twins with AML to make a study worthwhile.
Quoting 1557. ricderr:

Come on Ric get with the program!!



i'm with the program...that's me on the right...behind the other guy





Damn it Ric I swore I would not hold my coffee when you're on the blog!!!
1560. Grothar
1561. Grothar
Eitwanda Fire Update;

Current Situation
Total Personnel 183
Size 2,190 acres
Percent Contained 94%

Just a few smouldering places left....
Quoting 1558. sar2401:


Did you find any links between smog and the occurrence of acute myelogenous leukemia? My wife died of AML in 2004 at the age of 58. She was the healthy one in the family. Ate right, exercised, never smoked, never was in a work environment with exposure to things like the benzine class chemicals. We did live in Los Angeles from 1966 until 1976, when smog was nearly at record levels. She's an interesting epidemiological case because she has an identical twin who lived her life in Ohio, in a much less polluted area, and her twin did not get AML, and is alive and healthy today. Given that, there seems to be no doubt that her AML was from some kind of environmental exposure. I've tried to get some epidemiologists interested in her case but, as usual, there aren't enough identical twins with AML to make a study worthwhile.


Cancer is particularly associated with environmental chemicals, and also with endogenous chemicals, such as estrogen. The common factor is that these chemicals are all metabolised by cytochrome P450 enzymes, which produce hydroxyl radicals. Chronic production of hydroxyl radicals causes many diseases, including cancer. I'm not familiar with the particular cancer you describe, though.
Ya had to do it Gro ya just had to do it..Don't be doin no Paul McCartney number 9 The Walrus when we need ya to call the real blobs..
So great to see ya ..yea you was probably laughing when ya put the scare in us all..'Hello boys and girls' ( quote from Grothar Blogmeister)
ALSO...CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING BIG SEVERE WX
PRODUCERS AND H5 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR(-11C) SO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
Great!
1567. sar2401
Quoting Wolfberry:
There models OK --The WPC says again and again during monsoon,7 days from now it is going to rain like friggen Noah get on it and you know what? I gotta empty the Ark cause not a drop. I am so excited I can hardly see. I live and breathe rain because I farm. Scott, excuse me please for speaking for you, but he gets damn excited like we all do in hopes of severe weather..why the heck are we all here? We all know and many of us have paid the price of severe weather..it does not take away from either the dread or anticipation..end of rant.

I don't know, maybe I'm weird (that's rhetorical), but I really hate severe weather. I find hurricanes interesting from a purely global view of nature's biggest effort, but I really don't like them when one is headed for Alabama...or any populated area, for that matter. I don't like events like last week, for example, when I'm sitting here trying to figure out if the tornadoes just north of me are going to happen here from that next mean looking cell. Tornadoes are going to happen whether I like it or not, just as hurricanes are going to happen if I like it or not. I'm just an amateur, so I follow storms because it adds to my knowledge of how, why, and when they occur. I want to know as much as I can about severe weather that could potentially destroy my property or kill me or my family. That's one of the reasons I very little interest in Pacific storms. Other than sympathy for those affected, a Pacific storm is not going to affect me. I feel no excitement about storms in general, but I guess I do feel dread about ones that might affect me.
1568. Grothar
Quoting 1565. Wolfberry:

Ya had to do it Gro ya just had to do it..Don't be doin no Paul McCartney number 9 The Walrus when we need ya to call the real blobs..
So great to see ya ..yea you was probably laughing when ya put the scare in us all..'Hello boys and girls' ( quote from Grothar Blogmeister)


When I start with "Hello boys and girls" I mean business

Good Afternoon Sensei...... 75.4F here. Hows your temps?
A wolf in sheep's clothing...
Gonna sign off for the day but cannot post the current CIMMS chart for the E-Pac sheer levels.  Will just note that the current disturbance is under moderate sheer and headed towards a band of 20-30 knots; not the best sheer-wise unless we see a considerable drop in the near future.  As noted by the two pics below, it is a rather large area of disturbed weather, and over very warm SST's that are helping feed the disorganized t-storms, but no cigar yet:

 


Everyone have a safe evening....................WW.
Quoting 1568. Grothar:



When I start with "Hello boys and girls" I mean business



Grothar, you simply are the best. You have absolutely no idea how much joy and yes weather savy ('nobody takes me seriously except for my jokes') You have brought to this blog.. I hope you health is good sir.
1573. sar2401
Quoting yonzabam:


Cancer is particularly associated with environmental chemicals, and also with endogenous chemicals, such as estrogen. The common factor is that these chemicals are all metabolised by cytochrome P450 enzymes, which produce hydroxyl radicals. Chronic production of hydroxyl radicals causes many diseases, including cancer. I'm not familiar with the particular cancer you describe, though.

There's a good study about the type of AML she had here. She was a classic case, we now know, of a person with myelodysplasia for 10 years before it flopped over into AML. Unfortunately, we believed her doctor, little weasel that he is, who said it was no big deal and she could live with it her whole life. Since she was so unique, with an identical twin with no myelodysplastic changes, she could have gotten a stem cell transplant from her twin with no risk to her, and she probably would have lived five years longer. As you might imagine, I'll never believe a doctor again without a second opinion.
1574. Grothar
Quoting 1572. Wolfberry:


Grothar, you simply are the best. You have absolutely no idea how much joy and yes weather savy ('nobody takes me seriously except for my jokes') You have brought to this blog.. I hope you health is good sir.


Yes, acere. it is getting better.
1575. Grothar
Quoting 1569. PedleyCA:

Good Afternoon Sensei...... 75.4F here. Hows your temps?


Good afternoon, Grasshopper. It is 98.6 today. Oh, you mean outside. I think it was 84F


Going to be cool for a couple of days....
Quoting 1563. Patrap:

Portlight Tornado Relief Report






Thanks Patrap. Here is the link for Portlight on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Portlight-Strategi e s/34977944066?ref=profile

Where the heck is Presslord? Please Tazz don't come out of the woodwork with that pic!!!
1578. pottery
Greetings.
Nice to come in here and see someone older than me.
I'm not calling names, though.

:):))

Hot and dry-brown here still.
Major fires on some hillsides last week, and around here in the lowlands.
Was a little optimistic that the ITCZ was making a northern motion last week, but that seems to have been a teaser.
That should be a ban-able offense.
Hold tight.. in about 2 months we will be rocking the beats.
1581. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:

Dang. Water temperature at Acapulco is 86 degrees. I want to go diving.
1582. Grothar
Quoting 1581. sar2401:


Dang. Water temperature at Acapulco is 86 degrees. I want to go diving.


I thought you usually went diving off of Madagascar?
1583. sar2401
... Birmingham NOAA Weather Radio transmitter maintenance update...

The Birmingham NOAA Weather Radio transmitter... broadcasting on a
frequency of 162.550 mhz ... continues to operate at a reduced
effectiveness as a result of mechanical failures.

Technicians are now expected to perform upgrades to the equipment
late this week or early next week. The updated projection for full
operational status now stands at the close of normal operations...
Wednesday... may 14th. During the upgrade... the radio transmitter...
operating currently at reduced power and reach... will be off the
air.

We apologize for any inconvenience this reduction/outage has
caused over the last few weeks.

The transmitter failed on April 20. It was supposed to be fixed by May 1...then May 4...then May 9...now May 14. I guess getting the transmitter on the air working as well as it did before it failed is an "upgrade". I'll bet the "Upgrade" still doesn't add a backup transmitter.
I hope everyone is getting ready for severe weather starting on Wednesday and Thursday to.. I will keep updating on this weather soon.
1585. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


He's right in a way though as I did get out of hand some last year. I think I was frustuated at the fact that the hurricane season was a bust. Wanted something good to track but nothing would manage to build up due to the ever presence of dry air across the Atlantic. I hope some research is being done about this as even Dr. Grey was prediciting a hyper active season.


I know it can frustrating bubba when all those long range models have super cat 6 hurricane hittin' ya in CFL, then it doesnt pan out! hehe, just kidding. Im looking forward to Hurricane season and your super 'most intense' El Nino ever!
I hope everyone is getting ready for severe weather starting on Wednesday and Thursday to.. I will keep updating on this weather soon.
1587. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


I thought you usually went diving off of Madagascar?

Yeah, right. That was back when I had money. Now I have to take the AARP tour with the special discount, since I don't need a handicapped room. I have to hang around with a bunch of geezers discussing all their somatic complaints and whining because the tapioca is too spicy. The only saving grace is I can sneak off and get in a dive while they are going to see yet another cathedral.

Being retired sometimes has its limitations.
1588. Grothar
Quoting 1586. hurricanes2018:

I hope everyone is getting ready for severe weather starting on Wednesday and Thursday to.. I will keep updating on this weather soon.


Yep

1589. Grothar
Quoting 1561. Grothar:



That surface heat thing on the chart for the 30th of April looks severe!
Now its the 5th of May and I cant help wondering if all that heat in the Indian ocean might have some sort of serious effect on the conditions in Cental Africa?
Of course we all know that on the other side of Cental Africa are the Cape Verde Islands and lots of unknowns.
Massive build up of heat in those charts.
Testing IntelliGeoff...

Our first 90 degree day of the year! But it is so dry, with a dew point of 50 and a relative humidity of 24%!
Quoting 1591. GeoffreyWPB:

Testing IntelliGeoff...


.
Quoting 1550. StormTrackerScott:



I have to cover myself. Gonna be a different approach from me this year. Will not post long range models past 10 days due to uproar by a couple on here.

Set up on the Euro is almost earily similar to the one we had in May 2009 which was a El-Nino year. We had a system cutoff over FL and brought over 36" of rain to some places while most got 1 to 2 feet of rain in just 10 days.

Daytona Beach had over 22" of rain that month while Bunnel just to the NW had 36" which ruined the potato crop that year in Flagler County. I picked up 18".


I don't pay any attention to models past 7 days - I won't even look. It's too crazy to watch and/or talk about phantom stuff.

I remember May of 2009. Very rainy month. We didn't get near what you did but if I remember correctly we got around 10" which is about 4x the average.
1595. Grothar
Quoting 1590. PlazaRed:


That surface heat thing on the chart for the 30th of April looks severe!
Now its the 5th of May and I cant help wondering if all that heat in the Indian ocean might have some sort of serious effect on the conditions in Cental Africa?
Of course we all know that on the other side of Cental Africa are the Cape Verde Islands and lots of unknowns.
Massive build up of heat in those charts.


I never thought of that. And it is right were many of the waves form over Africa.
Are waves now coming off africa? Someone told me that they start coming off Africa in early May.
1597. Patrap

Oklahoma earthquakes magnitude-3 and greater since 1978.

Rare Earthquake Warning Issued for Oklahoma

LiveScience.com By By Becky Oskin, Senior Writer

2 hours ago

Mile for mile, there are almost as many earthquakes rattling Oklahoma as California this year. This major increase in seismic shaking led to a rare earthquake warning today (May 5) from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Geological Survey.

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In a joint statement, the agencies said the risk of a damaging earthquake — one larger than magnitude 5.0 — has significantly increased in central Oklahoma.

Geologists don't know when or where the state's next big earthquake will strike, nor will they put a number on the increased risk. "We haven't seen this before in Oklahoma, so we had some concerns about putting a specific number on the chances of it," Robert Williams, a research geophysicist with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program in Golden, Colorado, told Live Science. "But we know from other cases around the world that if you have an increasing number of small earthquakes, the chances of a larger one will go up." [Watch 2500+ Oklahoma Earthquakes Since 2012 (Video)]

That's why earthquakes of magnitude 5 and larger are more frequent in states such as California and Alaska, where thousands of smaller temblors hit every year.

This is the first time the USGS has issued an earthquake warning for a state east of the Rockies, Williams said. Such seismic hazard assessments are more typically issued for Western states following large quakes, to warn residents of the risk of damaging aftershocks, he said.

The geological agencies took action after the rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma outpaced that of even California for the first few months of 2014. (California regained the lead in April.)

View galleryRare Earthquake Warning Issued for Oklahoma
Oklahoma earthquakes.
"The rate of earthquakes increased dramatically in March and April," Williams said. "That alerted us to examine this further and put out this advisory statement."

While Oklahoma's buildings can withstand light earthquakes, the damage from a magnitude-5 temblor could be widespread. Oklahoma's last major earthquake was in November 2011, when a magnitude-5.6 earthquake centered near Prague, Oklahoma, destroyed 14 homes and injured at least two people.

"Building owners and government officials should have a special concern for older, unreinforced brick structures, which are vulnerable to serious damage during sufficient shaking," Bill Leith, a USGS senior science adviser for earthquakes and geologic hazards, said in the joint statement.

While scientists haven't ruled out natural causes for the increase, many researchers suspect the deep injection wells used for the disposal of fracking wastewater could be causing the earthquake activity. Fracking, short for hydraulic fracturing, is a method of extracting oil and gas by cracking open underground rock.

Ongoing studies have found a link between Oklahoma's high-volume wastewater injection wells and regions with an uptick in earthquakes.

According to the USGS, the number of quakes magnitude-3 and stronger jumped by 50 percent in the past eight months in Oklahoma. Some 183 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or greater struck between October 2013 and April 14, 2014. The state's long-term average from 1978 to 2008 was only two earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or larger per year.

If the earthquakes are caused by wastewater injection, then the activity could continue or decrease with future changes in well usage in the state.

"We don't know if this earthquake rate is going to continue," Williams said. "It could go to a higher rate or lower, so the increased chances of a damaging quake could change in the future."

Email Becky Oskin or follow her @beckyoskin. Follow us @OAPlanet, Facebook and Google+. Original article at Live Science's Our Amazing Planet.
Quoting 1595. Grothar:



I never thought of that. And it is right were many of the waves form over Africa.

Lets look at this realistically as seasoned pensioners should do if there was a seasons pension for us.
First it looks like India is the land in an oceanic sandwich.
Its early May and already the majority of the northern Indian ocean is above 30/C. Lets just imagine that keeps on rising a bit more,, maybe we have casualties for want of a better word at this stage in the marine life.
Then we have massive storms activated from all that heat in the enclosing seas of the area.
Now then the next thing is the massive heat in the waters is right next to the massive heat in the Sahara which is a bit bigger than the USA and does not get much rain, so the moist air continues over to the Atlantic, via the sub Saharan countries and to the Sharl.
To where everybody is being very complacent, as its going to be an El Nino year.
Then to put it mildly, all hell could let loose as the Atlantic gets warmer than its been for a very long time in those equatorial regions.
Just a thought of course, with no charts and zero back up, yet.

Quoting 1563. Patrap:

Portlight Tornado Relief Report




I think Portlight provides a nice gap in providing immediate relief for disabled folks, and for awhile I was a regular contributor to the charitable cause. However, I have stopped giving them anything. I realize that they can't be in all places at all times when needed, but from the e-mails I received it seemed like they were very rarely if ever in Florida, my home state. I have no idea why they don't help Floridians. I think I recall a time when they helped a single family in the Live Oak area 2 years ago with flooding, beyond that it's squadoosh for the Sunshine State. If I'm missing some other Floridian that they've helped please let me know. I'm sure some disabled folks needed help recently in the panhandle with the flooding, for example.
1600. Grothar
Quoting 1598. PlazaRed:


Lets look at this realistically as seasoned pensioners should do if there was a seasons pension for us.
First it looks like India is the land in an oceanic sandwich.
Its early May and already the majority of the northern Indian ocean is above +30/C. Lets just imagine that keeps on rising a bit more,, maybe we have casualties for want of a better word at this stage in the marine life.
Then we have massive storms activated from all that heat in the enclosing seas of the area.
Now then the next thing is the massive heat in the waters is right next to the massive heat in the Sahara which is a bit bigger than the USA and does not get much rain, so the moist air continues over to the Atlantic viathe sub Saharan countries and the Sharl.
To where everybody is being very complacent, as its going to be an El Nino year.
Then to put it mildly, all hell could let loose as the Atlantic gets warmer than its been for a very long time in those equatorial regions.
Just a thought of course, with no charts and zero back up, yet.


I've heard worse explanations. That is why I am not letting my guard down just yet.





1602. sar2401
Quoting Climate175:
Are waves now coming off africa? Someone told me that they start coming off Africa in early May.


Some storms do move east from Africa stating as early as April. You can see on the current satellite picture that there's a lot of convection over central Africa. However, there's always a lot of convection over central Africa. There are several key things to watch -

1. The temperature difference between North Africa (mostly the Sahara Desert) and the area around the Gulf of Guinea (that big indentation on the coast of west central Africa. The bigger the temperature differential, the bigger the potential for large convective clusters to form.

2. Conditions about 500 miles off the coast from the Gulf of Guinea. Is there a lot of instability over the ocean? How high is the pressure compared to right on the coast? How's the wind shear?

The easterly African Waves get to be important when the convection holds together, or even increases, as it moves about 500 miles west. Right now, that's not happening, which means Africa is not likely to be the source of any storms in about the next two weeks.

There's a lot of information about African waves at WUnderground's African Wave Tracking page. Spend some time reading it, and then look for some satellite photos to see how things are matching up. You'll know a lot more about this incubator of most of our really large hurricanes if you do some research.

Quoting 1592. DonnieBwkGA:

Our first 90 degree day of the year! But it is so dry, with a dew point of 50 and a relative humidity of 24%!


That's not Dry, this is Dry:

West central Oklahoma
Clinton Regional Airport (KCLK)
Lat: 35.53°N Lon: 98.93°W Elev: 1614ft.

103°F dew point depression

Fair and Breezy
97°F
36°C
Humidity 2%
Wind SpeedS 21 G 26 mph
Barometer 29.77 in
Dewpoint -6°F (-21°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 92°F (33°C)

Last Update on 4 May 5:55 pm CDT
Quoting Pat at:- 1597:-

This is the first time the USGS has issued an earthquake warning for a state east of the Rockies, Williams said. Such seismic hazard assessments are more typically issued for Western states following large quakes, to warn residents of the risk of damaging aftershocks, he said.

The geological agencies took action after the rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma outpaced that of even California for the first few months of 2014. (California regained the lead in April.)

I find this interesting as the free energy from the Fracking thing may one day have a price and interest to pay?
Please note this is the first time they have issued a warning and its probably not going to be the last.
Quoting 1600. Grothar:



I've heard worse explanations. That is why I am not letting my guard down just yet.







Best not to let your guard down ever, or at least not before the year 2200.
It just seems that with all the technology and charts etc, that we might be heading for a heat band around the northern equatorial regions.
It seems that its probably already 50% in place at the 30/c mark give or take a few degrees?
Now as we see it, if the equatorial regions get a stable 30/C temp in their northern latitudes then there is going to have to be an awful lot of adjustment's with everything from everything from the odd squalls to major hurricane disturbances.
Then again its best not to speculate too much at this stage it will only attract criticism and trollic activates. Not to mention everybody else from Oden to Posiden?
1607. JRRP
1608. sar2401
Quoting CosmicEvents:

I think Portlight provides a nice gap in providing immediate relief for disabled folks, and for awhile I was a regular contributor to the charitable cause. However, I have stopped giving them anything. I realize that they can't be in all places at all times when needed, but from the e-mails I received it seemed like they were very rarely if ever in Florida, my home state. I have no idea why they don't help Floridians. I think I recall a time when they helped a single family in the Live Oak area 2 years ago with flooding, beyond that it's squadoosh for the Sunshine State. If I'm missing some other Floridian that they've helped please let me know. I'm sure some disabled folks needed help recently in the panhandle with the flooding, for example.

I don't know about their history in Florida but, reading their recent report about the tornadoes in Arkansas, it appears their entire work product was buying and delivering one cane to an elderly woman in Quapaw. It's not even clear to me that this person was actually needy and couldn't buy her own replacement cane. It just seems like there has been a loss of focus with Portlight. There were no active shelters in any of the towns visited. The needs of the disabled seem to have been met by their families and existing agencies in the area. The report makes it appear that the volunteers were in the area for one day. It seems like the contacts made could have been done by telephone, and a response could have been mounted if there was an apparent need.

I realize volunteer groups sometimes do things because they need to get their names out there as a group that can offer help. If that was the case this time, I can understand. It does seem like a group with limited resources needs to husband those resources so, when a major storm hits that causes lots of people to be displaced, they can be there to offer assistance and replace items that were lost or damaged due to the storm or as part of the evacuation process. I know this view may not be popular, but I've worked with many volunteer groups in disaster settings, so I have some idea how things work. Loss of focus about the original mission, especially in times when the number of major disasters has been low, can lead to a lot of dilution of effort.
1609. Grothar
Quoting 1605. PlazaRed:


Best not to let your guard down ever, or at least not before the year 2200.
It just seems that with all the technology and charts etc, that we might be heading for a heat band around the northern equatorial regions.
It seems that its probably already 50% in place at the 30/c mark give or take a few degrees?
Now as we see it, if the equatorial regions get a stable 30/C temp in their northern latitudes then there is going to have to be an awful lot of adjustment's with everything from everything from the odd squalls to major hurricane disturbances.
Then again its best not to speculate too much at this stage it will only attract criticism and trollic activates. Not to mention everybody else from Oden to Posiden?


Look how even it is




Quoting Grothar:



Some things never change. Spring warm spells in the Mid Atlantic are often threatened by marine incursions
Quoting sar2401:

I don't know, maybe I'm weird (that's rhetorical), but I really hate severe weather. I find hurricanes interesting from a purely global view of nature's biggest effort, but I really don't like them when one is headed for Alabama...or any populated area, for that matter. I don't like events like last week, for example, when I'm sitting here trying to figure out if the tornadoes just north of me are going to happen here from that next mean looking cell. Tornadoes are going to happen whether I like it or not, just as hurricanes are going to happen if I like it or not. I'm just an amateur, so I follow storms because it adds to my knowledge of how, why, and when they occur. I want to know as much as I can about severe weather that could potentially destroy my property or kill me or my family. That's one of the reasons I very little interest in Pacific storms. Other than sympathy for those affected, a Pacific storm is not going to affect me. I feel no excitement about storms in general, but I guess I do feel dread about ones that might affect me.


I completely sympathize. I also despise it and resent the feeling during convective season that the atmosphere is just throwing darts at me any on of which could damage or wipe out my house and hurt my family. Yeah my spot on the dartboard probably won't get hit.
Probably.
This time.
I hope.

(Not currently under the severe WX gun in DC but it will eventually happen.. again!)
1612. sar2401
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting Pat at:- 1597:-

This is the first time the USGS has issued an earthquake warning for a state east of the Rockies, Williams said. Such seismic hazard assessments are more typically issued for Western states following large quakes, to warn residents of the risk of damaging aftershocks, he said.

The geological agencies took action after the rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma outpaced that of even California for the first few months of 2014. (California regained the lead in April.)

I find this interesting as the free energy from the Fracking thing may one day have a price and interest to pay?
Please note this is the first time they have issued a warning and its probably not going to be the last.

You might want to read this article about the "warning". While there's no doubt that earthquakes have increased significantly in Oklahoma, the joint advisory statement was not a warning, and it's not new, except for a press release issued today.
Quoting 1609. Grothar:







Grother, you forgot to type something.
Or maybe to put it another way:-
If you know the artist you don't really need to see the paintings.

All a bit odd this year and it seems that its the calm before the storms!
A lot of complacency about now and as its so long since the Gulf was really stirred up maybe memories are too short, one thing that comes with age and experience, is the nagging thought in the back of the mind that the lands of complacency are not an area to elope into.
Bed time over here in the tranquil barmy warmth's of southern Europe at 31/C daytime and about 24/c night time.
Hasta Tomorrow.
Quoting 1609. Grothar:



Look how even it is






Amazing, almost pre Raphaelite.
Quoting 1145. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Added to NWS Little Rock's page on anchor bolts:

"To be fair, not every clean slab that was checked along the track of the tornado had cut nails. Several of these slabs had anchor bolts. However, there were signs that some of the bolts were improperly installed. At one home, for instance, there were no washers or nuts found on the bolts, and the bolts were not sheared off. In general, if survey crews found anchor bolts, and they were used as intended, the slabs were not clean."



The above image has always looked EF5 to me and the NWS notes that its construction was up to par.

Remember... a single family residence built to "par" or of "typical construction" yields an estimated wind value of 200mph.... EF4. It can't be par, it has to be above average construction, for a single family home to yield at EF5 in the EF scale.
Quoting 1602. sar2401:



Some storms do move east from Africa stating as early as April. You can see on the current satellite picture that there's a lot of convection over central Africa. However, there's always a lot of convection over central Africa. There are several key things to watch -

1. The temperature difference between North Africa (mostly the Sahara Desert) and the area around the Gulf of Guinea (that big indentation on the coast of west central Africa. The bigger the temperature differential, the bigger the potential for large convective clusters to form.

2. Conditions about 500 miles off the coast from the Gulf of Guinea. Is there a lot of instability over the ocean? How high is the pressure compared to right on the coast? How's the wind shear?

The easterly African Waves get to be important when the convection holds together, or even increases, as it moves about 500 miles west. Right now, that's not happening, which means Africa is not likely to be the source of any storms in about the next two weeks.

There's a lot of information about African waves at WUnderground's African Wave Tracking page. Spend some time reading it, and then look for some satellite photos to see how things are matching up. You'll know a lot more about this incubator of most of our really large hurricanes if you do some research.


Will that change in July/ August.
Quoting 1544. PedleyCA:



Resevoir Levels CA.

I dont think it is done on a standard, nation-wide basis. I think it should be.
I believe it is a recommended function of the National Water Center.
Quoting 1617. ScottLincoln:


I dont think it is done on a standard, nation-wide basis. I think it should be.
I believe it is a recommended function of the National Water Center.


The other poster was asking if there was a map like the one he produced for California and that was the closest thing I could find and it was incomplete. Would be nice is there was more resources for these things and that they were more standard amongst the States.
I think TWC starts doing tropical updates starting June 1 correct?
1620. Grothar
Quoting 1614. PlazaRed:


Amazing, almost pre Raphaelite.


Better than a Dadaist.
Is time running out for the EPAC disturbance to develop? Being so broad it may take time to do so and shear may increase in the next few days.

Quoting 1619. Climate175:

I think TWC starts doing tropical updates starting June 1 correct?
correct, unless something comes up before the season start.
1623. sar2401
Quoting Climate175:
Will that change in July/ August.

Will what change? The African Waves develop all year. In the spring through mid-autumn, the convection is usually stronger and better organized. Did you read the article at the link I provided?
Quoting 1610. georgevandenberghe:




Some things never change. Spring warm spells in the Mid Atlantic are often threatened by marine incursions
The marine layer is what saved our life last summer.I remember when the forecast called for highs in the upper 80's to low 90's.However the marine layer wouldn't budge and I was relieved...
Woo hoo I'm back from the dead, felt like I was betrayed by my jealous friends like Edmond Dantes in the movie, "The Count of Monte Crisco" and taken away to the island prison of Chateau d'If. Now I am back for revenge. :D Seriously what happened earlier I hope will not be repeated again. I made a mistake didn't cite my source just this one time and got sent to prison blog for it. For Christ sakes I'm human I make mistakes only a fool would say that they are perfect. Alright now back to the weather.

Looks like the GFS is trying to spin something up here just north of Puerto Rico in 5 days. Maybe a STS.



Oh here is a link too for that image. ;)

Link
Quoting 1623. sar2401:


Will what change? The African Waves develop all year. In the spring through mid-autumn, the convection is usually stronger and better organized. Did you read the article at the link I provided?
Yes but assuming we will not see tropical development from there in the next two weeks and knowing Cape Verde season starts in August i was just saying will the waves having convection while going 500 miles west begin doing so around then?
Quoting 1624. washingtonian115:

The marine layer is what saved our life last summer.I remember when the forecast called for highs in the upper 80's to low 90's.However the marine layer wouldn't budge and I was relieved...
This weekend has summer written all over it. Highs in the low- mid 80s with thunderstorms. We could even reach 90 degrees.
Anyway i was expecting a hot summer. We have had a cool wet spring so far.
1629. sar2401
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I completely sympathize. I also despise it and resent the feeling during convective season that the atmosphere is just throwing darts at me any on of which could damage or wipe out my house and hurt my family. Yeah my spot on the dartboard probably won't get hit.
Probably.
This time.
I hope.

(Not currently under the severe WX gun in DC but it will eventually happen.. again!)

My attitude about severe storms changed dramatically when my house got hit in 2007. It made the usual "freight train" noise when it was passing overhead. When I opened the door to the cellar, the funnel cloud was still visible to the east, headed toward the main part of Prattville. I had no internet. The tornado hit a cell tower, so I had no phone, and no way to view the radar. The only contact I had was my portable ham radio, and other operators were reporting the tornado was basically wiping out everything its path. I had no idea if another tornado might be behind it. I went back in the cellar and waited for another half-hour to make sure nothing was else coming. I was then able to emerge, only to see that half my roof and my 800 square foot back deck had vanished. We found the hot tub three blocks over, in a tree.

Looking at storms approaching me now has a whole different meaning.
Quoting 1625. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Woo hoo I'm back from the dead, felt like I was betrayed by my jealous friends like Edmond Dantes in the movie, "The Count of Monte Crisco" and taken away to the island prison of Chateau d'If. Now I am back for revenge. :D Seriously what happened earlier I hope will not be repeated again. I made a mistake didn't cite my source just this one time and got sent to prison blog for it. For Christ sakes I'm human I make mistakes only a fool would say that they are perfect. Alright now back to the weather.

Looks like the GFS is trying to spin something up here just north of Puerto Rico in 5 days. Maybe a STS.



Oh here is a link too for that image. ;)

Link

Keep your head up. You are a great contributor. You have critical thinking skills. I've learned a lot from not only the answers you give but the questions you ask..
Quoting 1621. Tropicsweatherpr:

Is time running out for the EPAC disturbance to develop? Being so broad it may take time to do so and shear may increase in the next few days.


The convection looks more connected to the monsoon trough than attempting to become a unified entity in and of itself. Kind of its own worst enemy in a way, with the size and all.

Quoting 1625. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Woo hoo I'm back from the dead, felt like I was betrayed by my jealous friends like Edmond Dantes in the movie, "The Count of Monte Crisco" and taken away to the island prison of Chateau d'If. Now I am back for revenge. :D Seriously what happened earlier I hope will not be repeated again. I made a mistake didn't cite my source just this one time and got sent to prison blog for it. For Christ sakes I'm human I make mistakes only a fool would say that they are perfect. Alright now back to the weather.

Looks like the GFS is trying to spin something up here just north of Puerto Rico in 5 days. Maybe a STS.



Oh here is a link too for that image. ;)

Link
Well... at least there's a surface low.

Better than... nothing? Yeah?


1633. sar2401
Quoting Climate175:
Yes but assuming we will not see tropical development from there in the next two weeks and knowing Cape Verde season starts in August i was just saying will the waves having convection while going 500 miles west begin doing so around then?

Maybe. There have been entire seasons when no, or only one, CV waves that have turned into a hurricane. CV hurricanes have formed in June all the way through October, although July through September is the peak season. Only about 60% of all hurricanes originate from African Waves, so there's lots more to watch than just what's coming off Africa.

I sense you're looking for some hard and fast rules about hurricanes. Unfortunately, there aren't any. Each individual low will develop in ways that are affected by many factors, some of which we don't even understand. As I said, you need to do research to learn. Many of us have been learning about hurricanes since before you were born. There's no way to do it fast. Just type "Cape Verde hurricanes" in Google and read the first ten articles. You need to start somewhere and that's as a good a start as any.
Quoting 1621. Tropicsweatherpr:

Is time running out for the EPAC disturbance to develop? Being so broad it may take time to do so and shear may increase in the next few days.



The GFS hasn't been predicting development until Wednesday afternoon into Thursday..
1636. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well... at least there's a surface low.

Better than... nothing? Yeah?



The pressure here is 1014 mb. I don't know if I'd really want to dignify 1012 mb as a low. :-)
The eastern low associated with our East Pacific tropical disturbance has become much better defined over the past 24 hours as the GFS suggested it would. Anticyclonic flow aloft is beginning to become established across the region, keeping wind shear over the disturbance low (despite higher shear with a bypassing shortwave to its northwest).

Quoting 1625. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Woo hoo I'm back from the dead, felt like I was betrayed by my jealous friends like Edmond Dantes in the movie, "The Count of Monte Crisco" and taken away to the island prison of Chateau d'If. Now I am back for revenge. :D Seriously what happened earlier I hope will not be repeated again. I made a mistake didn't cite my source just this one time and got sent to prison blog for it. For Christ sakes I'm human I make mistakes only a fool would say that they are perfect. Alright now back to the weather.

Looks like the GFS is trying to spin something up here just north of Puerto Rico in 5 days. Maybe a STS.



Oh here is a link too for that image. ;)

Link
welcome back Caleb, glad to see your wise self back in here. Anyways, I agree we will see Arthur in the Atlantic this week.
Quoting 1635. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The GFS hasn't been predicting development until Wednesday afternoon into Thursday..
But you'll also notice that it's less aggressive than it was yesterday.

EDIT: Whether this is due to assailing by shear or internal issues is another thing.
Quoting 1636. sar2401:


The pressure here is 1014 mb. I don't know if I'd really want to dignify 1012 mb as a low. :-)
Well on that map you do have a 1012 mb. High. I guess it really does depend on the circulation of air, whether it is clockwise or counter-clockwise. I wonder what is the lowest high pressure ever recorded and the highest low pressure ever recorded at the surface?
Quoting 1624. washingtonian115:

The marine layer is what saved our life last summer.I remember when the forecast called for highs in the upper 80's to low 90's.However the marine layer wouldn't budge and I was relieved...


What were the dates of this.? August was the only cool month of summer 2013 (but at least we had a cool month).
April 10-July averaged above to well above normal.

Marine layer incursions in March 2012 kept that month from being more incredibly warm than it was. I remember telling colleagues that the middle two weeks were going to be a lot like May, not continuously warm but with alternating near hot days and marine layer days and the marine layer would have the characteristics of May ones (cloudy and 50s) rather than March ones (raw and around 40) This verified.
Quoting 1633. sar2401:


Maybe. There have been entire seasons when no, or only one, CV waves that have turned into a hurricane. CV hurricanes have formed in June all the way through October, although July through September is the peak season. Only about 60% of all hurricanes originate from African Waves, so there's lots more to watch than just what's coming off Africa.

I sense you're looking for some hard and fast rules about hurricanes. Unfortunately, there aren't any. Each individual low will develop in ways that are affected by many factors, some of which we don't even understand. As I said, you need to do research to learn. Many of us have been learning about hurricanes since before you were born. There's no way to do it fast. Just type "Cape Verde hurricanes" in Google and read the first ten articles. You need to start somewhere and that's as a good a start as any.

Excellent point Sar. You are addressing the most enigmatic, least understood and sheer mysterious aspect of a hurricane, the point of ignition. It seems each year with immense 'rocket fuel' and at times low shear ..nada.. nothing. I respect your reply here as simply there are unknowns. I have thought how simple, this thing is just gonna fire off and I have been wrong over and over again. The fascination with the dynamics of weather is compelling. Yes study, observe, study, and just know you may be learning from people who don't know either. Just because one is a professional does not mean we have advanced ourselves to a state of knowledge where we know the inner workings of nature..Last seasons bust can be no clearer of a reminder.
1644. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well on that map you do have a 1012 mb. High. I guess it really does depend on the circulation of air, whether it is clockwise or counter-clockwise. I wonder what is the lowest high pressure ever recorded and the highest low pressure ever recorded at the surface?

That's an excellent question. When trying to come up with the right search terms in Google, I get the highest barometric pressure (of which there's quite a fight over), lowest barometric pressure, lowest human blood pressure, highest human blood pressure, lowest pressure for a human diver, lowest pressure for a skydiver, high pressure car washing pumps, highest and lowest ankle pressure, Colorado has the least fat people and West Virginia the most, and a site about some kind of pressure massage that appears to involve people in black hoods using whips. In short, Google doesn't seem to get this question. If you'll excuse me, I'm going to do some research into that pressure massage thing. :-0
1645. pottery
Quoting Wolfberry:

Excellent point Sar. You are addressing the most enigmatic, least understood and sheer mysterious aspect of a hurricane, the point of ignition. It seems each year with immense 'rocket fuel' and at times low shear ..nada.. nothing. I respect your reply here as simply there are unknowns. I have thought how simple, this thing is just gonna fire off and I have been wrong over and over again. The fascination with the dynamics of weather is compelling. Yes study, observe, study, and just know you may be learning from people who don't know either. Just because one is a professional does not mean we have advanced ourselves to a state of knowledge where we know the inner workings of nature..Last seasons bust can be no clearer of a reminder.

Nice post in response to a nice post by Sar.
1646. Patrap
Points of Origin by 10-Day Period

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic and 1949-2009 for the Eastern Pacific from the HURDAT database.

Quoting 1645. pottery:


Nice post in response to a nice post by Sar.


Very much so. Almost like they are the same person! Very informative posts from both.
1648. Gearsts
Can i change my numbers? lol
Quoting 1633. sar2401:


Maybe. There have been entire seasons when no, or only one, CV waves that have turned into a hurricane. CV hurricanes have formed in June all the way through October, although July through September is the peak season. Only about 60% of all hurricanes originate from African Waves, so there's lots more to watch than just what's coming off Africa.

I sense you're looking for some hard and fast rules about hurricanes. Unfortunately, there aren't any. Each individual low will develop in ways that are affected by many factors, some of which we don't even understand. As I said, you need to do research to learn. Many of us have been learning about hurricanes since before you were born. There's no way to do it fast. Just type "Cape Verde hurricanes" in Google and read the first ten articles. You need to start somewhere and that's as a good a start as any. Is this an Age game now? Just forget my original thought.
Quoting 1634. etxwx:

Evening energy reading...

Offshore industry has worst-case scenario technology at four strategic sites

For oil and gas industry, public image problems stretch from land to offshore

Lawsuit Highlights Concern Over Air Quality and Shale Drilling


Thanks for posting these. I read through your earlier contributions as well. I look forward to reading more of your finds :)

Was not aware of NPR's 'State Impact' website - I've definitely bookmarked that one.


I guess learning is a part of our short life.
Wow, it's getting hot here again, high 80s to low 90s. All week. The car felt like an oven after it had sat in the sun for several hours. If it's like this in early May, I'm not sure I wanna know what it's gonna be like in July. If the water really heats up we could get a bad hurricane season.

Btw, would anyone be willing to explain what exactly El Nino has to do with the water temperature/hurricane season? Thanks. :)
quoting 1645, 1647 Thanks guys hey I ain't Sar..haha ..hey pot I remember you saying your wife has relatives somewhere here in Arizona if you guys ever come over let me know and you can come up to my place ..I'm on 40 acres completely self contained off the grid, solar, everything. I've always enjoyed following your post and your way of thinking. I experiment in growing super foods on wasteland hence Wolfberry -which are Goji ..Back to the weather and Hurricanes -In the beginning there were many times I thought I would bet the farm on everything and lost so many times my best moment was to realize I really do not know..
Quoting 1652. Weathergirlklein:

Wow, it's getting hot here again, high 80s to low 90s. All week. The car felt like an oven after it had sat in the sun for several hours. If it's like this in early May, I'm not sure I wanna know what it's gonna be like in July. If the water really heats up we could get a bad hurricane season.

Btw, would anyone be willing to explain what exactly El Nino has to do with the water temperature/hurricane season? Thanks. :)

El Nino leads to increased wind shear, which is not favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. As a general rule, the stronger an El Nino, the weaker the Atlantic hurricane season. Most predictions at this point have <10 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes.
Quoting 1648. Gearsts:

Can i change my numbers? lol


Warmer waters won't make the shear associated with an El Nino nor the lack of the vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic go away. It's kind of a moot point.

Quoting 1639. KoritheMan:

But you'll also notice that it's less aggressive than it was yesterday.

EDIT: Whether this is due to assailing by shear or internal issues is another thing.


I don't really pay much attention to what a model is forecasting until we have something developed. I might make my own guess and point out a run that agrees with my thinking so people get a general idea of what I'm thinking, but it's not usually based on the model alone. Assuming we're able to see the disturbance consolidate, there doesn't seem to be much going against it other than time.
Bridge Collapse

Cleanup may take 48 hours. Freeway blocked between 138 and 18.
This is also the way around the blockage. I-15 to 138 to the 18 and back to the I-15. Reverse for going South. One of the News channels said they were about ready to pour the concrete on this bridge, back to square one.
1657. sar2401
Quoting Wolfberry:

Excellent point Sar. You are addressing the most enigmatic, least understood and sheer mysterious aspect of a hurricane, the point of ignition. It seems each year with immense 'rocket fuel' and at times low shear ..nada.. nothing. I respect your reply here as simply there are unknowns. I have thought how simple, this thing is just gonna fire off and I have been wrong over and over again. The fascination with the dynamics of weather is compelling. Yes study, observe, study, and just know you may be learning from people who don't know either. Just because one is a professional does not mean we have advanced ourselves to a state of knowledge where we know the inner workings of nature..Last seasons bust can be no clearer of a reminder.

Thank you. As an analogy, I used to teach search and rescue classes for new team members. One was a four hour block entitled "Lost Person Behavior". There has been a lot of data collection from all over the country about this, with lost person divided up into nine different groups, with all kinds of sub groups like terrain, weather, time of day, and area (urban, forest, wildland, etc.). I'd be about two hours into this when I'd see people start squirming. It's a lot of information, and it takes a lot of study to understand. By the third hour, there would be at least one person raise their hand and say something like "Can't you just give us the top five things we need to do to find this lost person?". Well, no, but I wish I could. I was waiting until I got enough experience that I could say, on search #200, "Aha...this one is just like search #29. Hang a left, go up that hill a mile, and he'll be there". Never happened, in over 300 searches. Hurricanes are like that. Storm X should be just like Storm Y, but it never is. Just like human behavior, it's unpredictable because we don't know, and we'll never know, all the variables. That concept of the top five rules will never work, even though we wish it would.
Quoting 1654. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Nino leads to increased wind shear, which is not favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. As a general rule, the stronger an El Nino, the weaker the Atlantic hurricane season. Most predictions at this point have <10 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes.


Yup. My calculations support your claim :)

http://www.wunderground.com/video?video=35178115450 01

Awesome WU video on tornado spotting. Anyways - May Magic is beginning. Stay safe. ;)



starting to feel like summer here for the south.
Quoting 1652. Weathergirlklein:

Wow, it's getting hot here again, high 80s to low 90s. All week. The car felt like an oven after it had sat in the sun for several hours. If it's like this in early May, I'm not sure I wanna know what it's gonna be like in July. If the water really heats up we could get a bad hurricane season.

Btw, would anyone be willing to explain what exactly El Nino has to do with the water temperature/hurricane season? Thanks. :)


Not sure if you've seen this - Gro posted this short Youtube video on El Nino - La Nina. Pretty basic introduction - was perfect for me.
Quoting 1641. georgevandenberghe:



What were the dates of this.? August was the only cool month of summer 2013 (but at least we had a cool month).
April 10-July averaged above to well above normal.

Marine layer incursions in March 2012 kept that month from being more incredibly warm than it was. I remember telling colleagues that the middle two weeks were going to be a lot like May, not continuously warm but with alternating near hot days and marine layer days and the marine layer would have the characteristics of May ones (cloudy and 50s) rather than March ones (raw and around 40) This verified.
There were cool times in July and June from the marine layer..I remember the one in July because I had a event to go to.4 days out they were forecasting highs in the upper 80's to low 90's but instead it was rainy and cloudy.I needed a light jacket to wear.
Etiwanda Fire Update:

Total Personnel 183
Size 2,190 acres
Percent Contained 96%

No active fire and almost contained....

Quoting 1648. Gearsts:

Can i change my numbers? lol

Lol the tropical Altantic has its own EL NINO :-)
TropicalAnalystwx13 thanks. :) LAbonbon thanks for the link.
Quoting 1655. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Warmer waters won't make the shear associated with an El Nino nor the lack of the vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic go away. It's kind of a moot point.


I don't really pay much attention to what a model is forecasting until we have something developed. I might make my own guess and point out a run that agrees with my thinking so people get a general idea of what I'm thinking, but it's not usually based on the model alone. Assuming we're able to see the disturbance consolidate, there doesn't seem to be much going against it other than time.
Waters still look warm enough. The threshold is 26.5 degrees celsius for tropical cyclone development. The map that Gearsts post was a 7 day change in sea surface temperatures. Now if shear becomes less and vertical instability goes up and sea surface temperatures go down then what?



Link

This is the sea surface temperatures for July of 2002:



Link

Quoting 1654. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Nino leads to increased wind shear, which is not favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. As a general rule, the stronger an El Nino, the weaker the Atlantic hurricane season. Most predictions at this point have <10 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes.

Well, My numbers are sitting at 10-4-1, and the majority of predictions I've seen fit go along with that statement .
But, I'm considering raising my predictions. :)
Still haven't found time to finish my May update. Hopefully by this weekend :P

Quoting 1655. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Warmer waters won't make the shear associated with an El Nino nor the lack of the vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic go away. It's kind of a moot point.
Vertical instability is directly tied to warmth.
Quoting 1657. sar2401:


Thank you. As an analogy, I used to teach search and rescue classes for new team members. One was a four hour block entitled "Lost Person Behavior". There has been a lot of data collection from all over the country about this, with lost person divided up into nine different groups, with all kinds of sub groups like terrain, weather, time of day, and area (urban, forest, wildland, etc.). I'd be about two hours into this when I'd see people start squirming. It's a lot of information, and it takes a lot of study to understand. By the third hour, there would be at least one person raise their hand and say something like "Can't you just give us the top five things we need to do to find this lost person?". Well, no, but I wish I could. I was waiting until I got enough experience that I could say, on search #200, "Aha...this one is just like search #29. Hang a left, go up that hill a mile, and he'll be there". Never happened, in over 300 searches. Hurricanes are like that. Storm X should be just like Storm Y, but it never is. Just like human behavior, it's unpredictable because we don't know, and we'll never know, all the variables. That concept of the top five rules will never work, even though we wish it would.


Excellent analogy Sar BTW you 'teach' search and rescue classes in here haha!! I've learned a lot from you..In regard to what you are saying nature is yet different because we don't know the parameters. That is where the mystery lies. Each times we come in for the field goal she moves the goal posts. What I come to see as easy recognition is continual changing of 'facts' even in my short lifetime of 58 years. History is strewn with 'facts' that have constantly changed. It is amazing how we 'know' to a T what happened millions of years ago. We know precisely what lies thousands of light years away yet we cannot with the brightest minds remotely get a grasp on a summer's hurricane activity. These are the reasons I am so suspect and to have spread for example of 9-17 storms ..that is not being smarter than a fifth grader. There is a lot of banter, ego and fun on this blog. But through it all there are very astute minds peering into an abyss that will only give the answer 'wait and see.'
1670. Grothar
Quoting 1661. LAbonbon:



Not sure if you've seen this - Gro posted this short Youtube video on El Nino - La Nina. Pretty basic introduction - was perfect for me.


I didn't think anyone looked at it. Thanks, La. Here is another one for you

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Quoting 1666. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Waters still look warm enough. The threshold is 26.5 degrees celsius for tropical cyclone development. The map that Gearsts post was a 7 day change in sea surface temperatures. Now if shear becomes less and vertical instability goes up and sea surface temperatures go down then what?



Link

This is the sea surface temperatures for July of 2002:



Link



If vertical instability were to come up and by some miracle we didn't see increased shear from the incoming El Nino, the season would be much more active than currently being forecast. But why deal with "if..." statements like that if the chances of the two aforementioned factors becoming more favorable as described are highly unlikely to do so? I'm not sure if you're familiar with severe weather, but some might understand. You can have all the surface-based instability (warm sea surface temperatures) you want, but if you have a stout cap at 700mb (wind shear), are you going to get supercell storms (hurricanes)? No.
Quoting 1646. Patrap:

Points of Origin by 10-Day Period

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic and 1949-2009 for the Eastern Pacific from the HURDAT database.


Evening all.... everybody notice the dots above Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.... seems the GFS scenario is not that out of line...

Quoting 1668. KoritheMan:


Vertical instability is directly tied to warmth.


Sea surface temperature warmth? Vertical instability has been below average since 2011 despite above-average waters in the tropical Atlantic. It might be the lack of an El Nino that did it (though I'm not sure of the specifics of that), or it might be a byproduct of global warming (increasing temperatures in the mid-upper atmosphere would limit thunderstorm growth, and intensification as a result [like a cap in severe weather]). Nobody really knows at this point.
Quoting 1673. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sea surface temperature warmth? Vertical instability has been below average since 2011 despite above-average waters in the tropical Atlantic. It might be the lack of an El Nino that did it (though I'm not sure of the specifics of that), or it might be a byproduct of global warming. Nobody really knows at this point.
It's just basic meteorology that heat = moisture. I'm not pretending that vertical instability hasn't been below average in spite of that, but that still doesn't alter the functionality of basic physical processes.
To clearer make my point clearer--for those of you who were here. Look what happened with Debbie ..This is where Levi met is greatest truth. Here we have a hurricane, TS, in motion and we cannot tell where it will go? --oh lets see ..either Texas or Florida..This is how far in the Dark Ages we truly are. That was my personal wake up call to know we do not truly know. When the models are spread from point A to point Z Just throw darts..Yes but they are used as a reference.. Every 6 hrs let me update my prediction on how this thing goes. This is not rocket science to realize we have not remotely got this thing off the ground..
Quoting 1676. Wolfberry:

To clearer make my point clearer--for those of you who were here. Look what happened with Debbie ..That is where Levi met is greatest truth. Here we have a hurricane, TS, in motion and we cannot tell where it will go? --oh lets see ..either Texas or Florida..This is how far in the Dark Ages we truly are. That was my personal wake up call to know we do not truly know. When the models are spread from point A to point Z Just through darts..Yes but they are used as a reference.. Every 6 hrs let me update my prediction on how this thing goes. This is not rocket science to realize we have not remotely got this thing off the ground..
Debby was stuck in between the flow around the Texas Death Ridge and the East Coast Trough, it so happened to be in the perfect spot in which a slight westward movement would have probably got caught under the ridge and headed westward, but because Debby remained disorganized and lopsided towards the East it headed northeastward instead as it got caught up in the trough. There is more to this, now had Debby been a major hurricane I wonder if the trough would have been strong enough to pull it northeast or if it would have gotten caught under the ridge.
Quoting 1670. Grothar:



I didn't think anyone looked at it. Thanks, La. Here is another one for you

a href="" target="_blank">Link


Thanks, Gro!

Quoting 1677. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Debby was stuck in between the flow around the Texas Death Ridge and the East Coast Trough, it so happened to be in the perfect spot in which a slight westward movement would have probably got caught under the ridge and headed westward, but because Debby remained disorganized and lopsided towards the East it headed northeastward instead as it got caught up in the trough. There is more to this, now had Debby been a major hurricane I wonder if the trough would have been strong enough to pull it northeast or if it would have gotten caught under the ridge.
I wish people would stop calling every ridge over the southern United States/Texas region a "death ridge", much less with the Texas moniker attached to it. >_>
Quoting KoritheMan:

I wish people would stop calling every ridge over the southern United States/Texas region a "death ridge", much less with the Texas moniker attached to it. >_>


Kori, read your gmail.

Louisiana Death Ridge is what got Karen.
Quoting 1680. KoritheMan:


I wish people would stop calling every ridge over the southern United States/Texas region a "death ridge", much less with the Texas moniker attached to it. >_>


it sounds cooler.
Quoting 1680. KoritheMan:


I wish people would stop calling every ridge over the southern United States/Texas region a "death ridge", much less with the Texas moniker attached to it. >_>

At the time it would have been appropriate. I guess it's more appropriately called the Sonoran High or Central Plains Ridge? But that ridge was responsible for drought in Texas, hence the nickname Texas Death Ridge.
1684. 1344
I'm a lite surprised that the EPAC system hasn't been invested yet. But it is still the offseason. It IMO looks a little better organized and defined than it did 12 hours ago. I would not rule it out quite yet.
91B in the Arabian Sea.

Quoting 1677. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Debby was stuck in between the flow around the Texas Death Ridge and the East Coast Trough, it so happened to be in the perfect spot in which a slight westward movement would have probably got caught under the ridge and headed westward, but because Debby remained disorganized and lopsided towards the East it headed northeastward instead as it got caught up in the trough. There is more to this, now had Debby been a major hurricane I wonder if the trough would have been strong enough to pull it northeast or if it would have gotten caught under the ridge.

GT you are totally making my point. Your point is my entire point. Debbie made it clear: If this happens that happens. If this doesn't happen then we go this way. Trust us we will tell you the moment Debbie starts to move which way she will go and as always you can be assured we are correct. What am I missing here that doesn't impress me? We all know exactly what transpired because we are looking back. Looking back is not exactly advanced technology.
1688. beell
Quoting 1683. GTstormChaserCaleb:

At the time it would have been appropriate. I guess it's more appropriately called the Sonoran High or Central Plains Ridge? But that ridge was responsible for drought in Texas, hence the nickname Texas Death Ridge.


It was actually 'Ridge O' Mortis'
:)

1678. BaltimoreBrian Thanks Brian I really look forward to these reads --I also want to give a shout out for your blog..Geez!! There is a wealth of fascinating information Brian's got over there..
Quoting 1682. TropicalAnalystwx13:
it sounds cooler.
Mississippi death ridge?
Quoting 1689. Wolfberry:
1678. BaltimoreBrian Thanks Brian I really look forward to these reads --I also want to give a shout out for your blog..Geez!! There is a wealth of fascinating information Brian's got over there..
Thanks Wolfberry!
1692. beell
Quoting 1682. TropicalAnalystwx13:


it sounds cooler.


No. It was hot.
Quoting beell:


No. It was hot.


I'm hot?

Aww, you're too kind.

*blushes*
1694. beell
Go to bed Astro!
;)

'Nite, ya'll.

Quoting 1683. GTstormChaserCaleb:

At the time it would have been appropriate. I guess it's more appropriately called the Sonoran High or Central Plains Ridge? But that ridge was responsible for drought in Texas, hence the nickname Texas Death Ridge.
The ridge that was supposed to steer Debby westward was actually all the way up in the upper midwest/Dakotas region.
Quoting 1690. BaltimoreBrian:

Mississippi death ridge?


West Coast Death Ridge?

Quoting 1693. Astrometeor:



I'm hot?

Aww, you're too kind.

*blushes*
You're not as hot as me.
Interpret this for me. I just don't know what to say about it.

Quoting 1698. HurricaneAndre:

Interpret this for me. I just don't know what to say about it.

tl;dr: no development in the Atlantic.
The 0z GFS opens up another possibility with our East Pacific disturbance: the dual lows currently observed never merge into one and we get a strung out depression moving into the Mexican coastline.



Quoting 1690. BaltimoreBrian:

Mississippi death ridge?

No.

Quoting 1674. PedleyCA:

Thanks, Ped.
For me Debby was a pivotal point of consciousness. There was a lot of brilliant minds attached to it and Texas was in desperate need of rain. Now, take Hurricane Don if it can be considered, Ts, whatever.. It hits Texas and evaporates. Period. It was pathetic but what struck me most peculiar is that was not at all predicted. Now look at last week in Pensacola. What just happened? How in the name of weather science can something so blatant slide under the radar and not be predicted?..It simply wasn't. Even Scott wasn't calling for 20 inches of rain in Pensacola!! There are a lot of young sharp minds on this blogs. The weather arena is so wide open because what is your competition? Step back and look at the opportunities missed over and over and over because everyone is focused on models and weather does what it does.

Quoting 1702. Wolfberry:

For me Debby was a pivotal point of consciousness. There was a lot of brilliant minds attached to it and Texas was in desperate need of rain. Now, take Hurricane Don if it can be considered, Ts, whatever.. It hits Texas and evaporates. Period. It was pathetic but what struck me most peculiar is that was not at all predicted. Now look at last week in Pensacola. What just happened? How in the name of weather science can something so blatant slide under the radar and not be predicted?..It simply wasn't. Even Scott wasn't calling for 20 inches of rain in Pensacola!! There are a lot of young sharp minds on this blogs. The weather arena is so wide open because what is your competition? Step back and look at the opportunities missed over and over and over because everyone is focused on models and weather does what it does.
I do agree that there's too much reliance on models sometimes. Even on my part. It's one thing that's hard to extricate from.
Quoting 1698. HurricaneAndre:

Interpret this for me. I just don't know what to say about it.



No bueno for any development.
1705. Tygor
Quoting 1699. KoritheMan:


tl;dr: no development in the Atlantic.



Yeah shear is going to be a problem for awhile by the looks of things. Usually until CV season opens up, we are looking towards Panama, Belize or fronts for some potential storms anyhow, so much of the shear located in the middle Atlantic is just blowing waves.

However, there's not much room for anything to develop. Even if it did, the water needs time to warm up to really get anything going even remotely close to the U.S. The Gulf is cooler by Texas than has been in the recent past*.

*-Scientifically proven by me trying to swim in it and it being cool.
Quoting 1703. KoritheMan:


I do agree that there's too much reliance on models sometimes. Even on my part. It's one thing that's hard to extricate from.


Kori you are a heck of a smart guy and I have heard you make this statement before. I have just looked overall how incredibly inaccurate weather prediction is. One can almost walk into models from a contrary point of view and assume they are wrong. Of course not the obvious right. So models are valuable because they are made by humans and humans are wrong. I have seen this blog outsmart the professionals time and time again. Kori you being right there. Grothar once said 'throw away the models and look at the weather.' I know you know what I'm saying here..The technology available is stupendous - it comes down to the ability to accurately read it. Who can argue that the models do?
Quoting 1706. Wolfberry:


 I have seen this blog outsmart the professionals time and time again.
"Professionals" (or more accurately, well-educated weather nerds) are objectively more qualified to analyze and predict the complex atmospheric dynamics than those who are not. That being said, I think that sometimes the more knowledgeable people actually overanalyze the forecasting situation, myself included. You don't need to look at every parameter in every single model in order to churn out a good forecast.

As Grothar said, "Look at the weather".
Quoting 1557. ricderr:

Come on Ric get with the program!!



i'm with the program...that's me on the right...behind the other guy





Which letter in YMCA are you?
Quoting 1707. KoritheMan:

"Professionals" (or more accurately, well-educated weather nerds) are objectively more qualified to analyze and predict the complex atmospheric dynamics than those who are not. That being said, I think that sometimes the more knowledgeable people actually overanalyze the forecasting situation, myself included. You don't need to look at every parameter in every single model in order to churn out a good forecast.

As Grothar said, "Look at the weather".



Or to phrase it another way, if we get lost in the models, we can sometimes miss the bigger picture that becomes obvious posthumously.

The GFS stays on track... for now though. I will soon know if it's a May 2013 repeat... I remember the GFS did show a very nice rain event then forgot about it 2 days before it was supposed to start... making me very angry :/
Quoting 1707. KoritheMan:

"Professionals" (or more accurately, well-educated weather nerds) are objectively more qualified to analyze and predict the complex atmospheric dynamics than those who are not. That being said, I think that sometimes the more knowledgeable people actually overanalyze the forecasting situation, myself included. You don't need to look at every parameter in every single model in order to churn out a good forecast.

As Grothar said, "Look at the weather".

You're crackin me up Kori ..'objectively more qualified.' Success is the bottom line of qualification. If I came unto this blog as a psychic and was totally correct in my predictions ..I would be 'objectively more qualified' than any weather nerd.
Quoting 1711. Wolfberry:

Quoting 1707. KoritheMan:

"Professionals" (or more accurately, well-educated weather nerds) are objectively more qualified to analyze and predict the complex atmospheric dynamics than those who are not. That being said, I think that sometimes the more knowledgeable people actually overanalyze the forecasting situation, myself included. You don't need to look at every parameter in every single model in order to churn out a good forecast.

As Grothar said, "Look at the weather".

You're crackin me up Kori ..'objectively more qualified.' Success is the bottom line of qualification. If I came unto this blog as a psychic and was totally correct in my predictions ..I would be 'objectively more qualified' than any weather nerd.


Uh... they're objectively more qualified because of their raw knowledge base. That knowledge base comes from studying and personal application, which anyone can do if they try.
1712. KoritheMan Yes and they are objectively more qualified than anybody who can make a living being accurate 50% percent of the time (as the saying goes)
Quoting 1459. sar2401:


I got that image from the Kansas City NWS when I was hunting around for similar images to what I was seeing. Their analysis doesn't agree with your analysis.
It really wasn't an "analysis" - it was a rehashing of fairly basic radar meteorology. And this was also a storm that I analyzed the very radar data for shortly after it occurred, because it was a storm that I spotted along with other students. I've re-read your original post, re-read the summary from NWS Kansas City, re-read my post, and still so no issue or "disagreement" between them.
Perhaps you could elaborate on how you believe I was incorrect?
Quoting 1459. sar2401:
I have GRLevel2. Last time I checked, the NEXRAD archived data wouldn't work with that version. Do you know if it works now? I've tried Level3 but my clunky old computer and graphics card will only run it for about 2 minutes before it locks up the whole computer. I'm hoping to get a new laptop shortly that has a dedicated graphics card so I can run Level3. I'd like to get GRAnalyst, but the $80 for Level3 is big enough chunk out of my fabulous Social Security check, let alone $250 for GRAnalyst.
Usually the level 2 files require more resources to run than the level 3 files. If you can't get the L2 files from the NOAA HAS system to work with your old GR2 anymore (I do not recall the files changing to where it would prevent them from loading) then I would suggest using the free NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit.
Quoting 1712. KoritheMan:



Uh... they're objectively more qualified because of their raw knowledge base. That knowledge base comes from studying and personal application, which anyone can do if they try.


Kori I know you are not missing my point and you are making yours which is in deference to mine. OK their knowledge base? We got the brightest minds in the history of the world with the most knowledge available ever procured by mankind and the superior men of weather flunk point blank the simple exam of predicting last years hurricane season. I'm not advocating get your weather off the blog. I'm saying whatever science and knowledge base you are referring to is inherently flawed. It is the outcome of success it must be judged by.
Report: Ocean Levels Could Rise Foot Or More If Lots Of People Go Swimming

SILVER SPRING, MD—Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sounded a strong warning about rising seas Monday, saying that ocean levels around the world are projected to increase by 12 inches or more should a bunch of people go swimming at the same time. “According to our latest analysis, an increase in global mean sea level of several inches is inevitable at this point given the approach of summer beach season, when millions of people will simultaneously go for a swim,” said oceanographer Paul Acosta at a press conference, adding that the increase could be “significantly higher” than currently predicted if lots of beachgoers choose to hold their breath and go under all the way. “Coastal cities and low-lying islands are the most vulnerable to rising sea levels, particularly if it’s not just kids who go for a dip, but full-grown adults as well. Our best hope now is moderating the rise as much as we can by convincing people to only wade in up to their waists.” Acosta also warned about the devastating possibilities of catastrophic tsunamis should everyone jump into the ocean together from a dock or off the side of a boat.

Link
Quoting 1710. CaribBoy:


The GFS stays on track... for now though. I will soon know if it's a May 2013 repeat... I remember the GFS did show a very nice rain event then forgot about it 2 days before it was supposed to start... making me very angry :/


Kori, this is my point right here..if this was your performance on your job time and time again you would be fired.
Quoting 1711. Wolfberry:

Quoting 1707. KoritheMan:

"Professionals" (or more accurately, well-educated weather nerds) are objectively more qualified to analyze and predict the complex atmospheric dynamics than those who are not. That being said, I think that sometimes the more knowledgeable people actually overanalyze the forecasting situation, myself included. You don't need to look at every parameter in every single model in order to churn out a good forecast.

As Grothar said, "Look at the weather".

You're crackin me up Kori ..'objectively more qualified.' Success is the bottom line of qualification. If I came unto this blog as a psychic and was totally correct in my predictions ..I would be 'objectively more qualified' than any weather nerd.


Incorrect. Success is not the bottom line. That's "ends-justify-means" type of thinking which, at best, is a terrible way to approach anything. Faulty methodology can still lead to right answers, or answers that may be correct but aren't useful. Worse, the answers can seem correct but may actually cover a glaring error. That's why people who've studied a subject for years/decades are considered "objectively qualified" since they actually have an idea of what they're talking, why it's correct, and how it works.

For example, let's take you being psychic. You're predictions may be right, but there is no methodology. The answers can't be reproduced. They come from you being psychic, not because you have some deep understanding of meteorological phenomena. After you're dead, what will your contributions be? You'd be a curiosity to be sure, but since your method was unfathomable your answers would be scientifically useless.

Also, don't confuse you're local TV weather man with a real meteorologist. An advanced degree is neither needed nor required to be a TV met.
1719. sar2401
I look at forecasts two ways. Today, for example, anyone could have predicted sunny and warm for Alabama. The pros missed the high of 89, since it was actually 97, but that's what I call a low impact miss. No one died because they missed the high temperature prediction. The other end is the example you gave earlier, where no one forecast what would happen in Pensacola and Mobile last week. The pros did forecast rain, even heavy rain - 3 to 5 inches. No one, either the pros or our pro nerds here, in their wildest dreams, thought that Pensacola would end up with 24 inches in 23 hours. That was a high impact miss, and that's what we're still not good at. With hurricanes, we've gotten a lot better at path prediction. We've hardly improved all when it comes to intensity. Path is important, but what intensity a storm will be when it hits is even more important. A good path prediction for a cat 1 that turns out to be a cat 3...or vice versa, can hardly be called a victory. Same thing with predicting heavy rain, but it turns out to be a historic toad choker.

I have the feeling that meteorology has improved so much since I was born in 1946 that we've picked all the low hanging fruit. Future advances will come much more slowly, at much greater cost, and up a lot more blind alleys with no results. What would happen in terms of public safety, for example, if we could go from our current average tornado warning time of 13 minutes to an hour? We'd have to be able to predict where a tornado would from and, once it does, exactly the path it will take. We could probably cut tornado deaths to near zero. If science had unlimited funds, unlimited manpower, and unlimited computer capacity, is that goal achievable in the foreseeable future? I doubt it, and that's what I mean by picking all the low hanging fruit.
1720. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Report: Ocean Levels Could Rise Foot Or More If Lots Of People Go Swimming

SILVER SPRING, MD—Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sounded a strong warning about rising seas Monday, saying that ocean levels around the world are projected to increase by 12 inches or more should a bunch of people go swimming at the same time. “According to our latest analysis, an increase in global mean sea level of several inches is inevitable at this point given the approach of summer beach season, when millions of people will simultaneously go for a swim,” said oceanographer Paul Acosta at a press conference, adding that the increase could be “significantly higher” than currently predicted if lots of beachgoers choose to hold their breath and go under all the way. “Coastal cities and low-lying islands are the most vulnerable to rising sea levels, particularly if it’s not just kids who go for a dip, but full-grown adults as well. Our best hope now is moderating the rise as much as we can by convincing people to only wade in up to their waists.” Acosta also warned about the devastating possibilities of catastrophic tsunamis should everyone jump into the ocean together from a dock or off the side of a boat.

Link

You've just got to love the Onion...
Quoting 1718. Xyrus2000:



Incorrect. Success is not the bottom line. That's "ends-justify-means" type of thinking which, at best, is a terrible way to approach anything. Faulty methodology can still lead to right answers, or answers that may be correct but aren't useful. Worse, the answers can seem correct but may actually cover a glaring error. That's why people who've studied a subject for years/decades are considered "objectively qualified" since they actually have an idea of what they're talking, why it's correct, and how it works.

For example, let's take you being psychic. You're predictions may be right, but there is no methodology. The answers can't be reproduced. They come from you being psychic, not because you have some deep understanding of meteorological phenomena. After you're dead, what will your contributions be? You'd be a curiosity to be sure, but since your method was unfathomable your answers would be scientifically useless.

Also, don't confuse you're local TV weather man with a real meteorologist. An advanced degree is neither needed nor required to be a TV met.

Thanks for jumping in and your point is extremely well taken. I have seen you time and again put the guy who is wrong to the curb. I am wrong here. Your rebuttal on me being psychic is completely accurate and prudently astute. I never confuse the antics of local weather folks for the real men of weather. I have immense admiration that we have come as far as we have. I personally feel it is a field that the bar hasn't even begun to be raised. Like the infancy of space travel. I feel through observation that models, all tho they be the best we have, are far from accurate. Thank-you Xyrus2000 a tip of the hat to you . You are and I have always witnessed to be a gentleman.
Quoting 1717. Wolfberry:



Kori, this is my point right here..if this was your performance on your job time and time again you would be fired.


Knowledge leads to success, which is why the qualifications for being a meteorologist are so extensive.
Quoting 1715. Wolfberry:



Kori I know you are not missing my point and you are making yours which is in deference to mine. OK their knowledge base? We got the brightest minds in the history of the world with the most knowledge available ever procured by mankind and the superior men of weather flunk point blank the simple exam of predicting last years hurricane season. I'm not advocating get your weather off the blog. I'm saying whatever science and knowledge base you are referring to is inherently flawed. It is the outcome of success it must be judged by.


At best you're demonstrating your ignorance here. Hurricane season predictions aren't real predictions. They're educated guesses. There is no model in existence that has any skill when it comes to hurricane season predictions. They can look at analogs and climatology, but that's about it.

The best weather models in the world show very little skill beyond 10 days. A hurricane season is significantly longer than that. Even if you ran a million ensembles you'd get is an average with very wide standard deviations (essentially useless).

What you're looking for is, in a word, impossible. You somehow think it's possible to predict specific small-scale events over a long time period in a chaotic system. We don't even have the capability to collect data at the kinds of resolutions needed for a model like that, let alone the storage and computational capacity to do so. Your comparison is the equivalent of telling a firefighter he sucks at his job because he can't put out a nuclear bomb with his firehouse.

Of course, you can critique all you want (as many on here do) but at least keep it in the realm of reality.
Quoting 1719. sar2401:

I look at forecasts two ways. Today, for example, anyone could have predicted sunny and warm for Alabama. The pros missed the high of 89, since it was actually 97, but that's what I call a low impact miss. No one died because they missed the high temperature prediction. The other end is the example you gave earlier, where no one forecast what would happen in Pensacola and Mobile last week. The pros did forecast rain, even heavy rain - 3 to 5 inches. No one, either the pros or our pro nerds here, in their wildest dreams, thought that Pensacola would end up with 24 inches in 23 hours. That was a high impact miss, and that's what we're still not good at. With hurricanes, we've gotten a lot better at path prediction. We've hardly improved all when it comes to intensity. Path is important, but what intensity a storm will be when it hits is even more important. A good path prediction for a cat 1 that turns out to be a cat 3...or vice versa, can hardly be called a victory. Same thing with predicting heavy rain, but it turns out to be a historic toad choker.

I have the feeling that meteorology has improved so much since I was born in 1946 that we've picked all the low hanging fruit. Future advances will come much more slowly, at much greater cost, and up a lot more blind alleys with no results. What would happen in terms of public safety, for example, if we could go from our current average tornado warning time of 13 minutes to an hour? We'd have to be able to predict where a tornado would from and, once it does, exactly the path it will take. We could probably cut tornado deaths to near zero. If science had unlimited funds, unlimited manpower, and unlimited computer capacity, is that goal achievable in the foreseeable future? I doubt it, and that's what I mean by picking all the low hanging fruit.

Sar one thing I really appreciated you standing firm on was the redistribution of funds from predicting hurricanes for a season to Hurricane Awareness and Prevention of Calamity as much as possible that is --I completely agreed because your points were so well presented..and what you say here about low impact/high impact is the same. Yes we have picked the low hanging fruit. We cannot be so smart as to have missed the Pensacola flooding the day it happens. This is what always gives me pause. I see it again and again. I am not saying I am right by no means. Xyrus2000 plainly and simply proved me incorrect in regard to my prior points.
Quoting 1723. Xyrus2000:



At best you're demonstrating your ignorance here. Hurricane season predictions aren't real predictions. They're educated guesses. There is no model in existence that has any skill when it comes to hurricane season predictions. They can look at analogs and climatology, but that's about it.

The best weather models in the world show very little skill beyond 10 days. A hurricane season is significantly longer than that. Even if you ran a million ensembles you'd get is an average with very wide standard deviations (essentially useless).

What you're looking for is, in a word, impossible. You somehow think it's possible to predict specific small-scale events over a long time period in a chaotic system. We don't even have the capability to collect data at the kinds of resolutions needed for a model like that, let alone the storage and computational capacity to do so. Your comparison is the equivalent of telling a firefighter he sucks at his job because he can't put out a nuclear bomb with his firehouse.

Of course, you can critique all you want (as many on here do) but at least keep it in the realm of reality.

These assumptions on my behalf I must respectfully disagree with. I am not looking for or expecting anything in the analogies you are making. You are in fact making my point better in regard to weather science than I am able.
1726. sar2401
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Incorrect. Success is not the bottom line. That's "ends-justify-means" type of thinking which, at best, is a terrible way to approach anything. Faulty methodology can still lead to right answers, or answers that may be correct but aren't useful. Worse, the answers can seem correct but may actually cover a glaring error. That's why people who've studied a subject for years/decades are considered "objectively qualified" since they actually have an idea of what they're talking, why it's correct, and how it works.

For example, let's take you being psychic. You're predictions may be right, but there is no methodology. The answers can't be reproduced. They come from you being psychic, not because you have some deep understanding of meteorological phenomena. After you're dead, what will your contributions be? You'd be a curiosity to be sure, but since your method was unfathomable your answers would be scientifically useless.

Also, don't confuse you're local TV weather man with a real meteorologist. An advanced degree is neither needed nor required to be a TV met.

So you're saying people "who've studied a subject for years/decades are considered "objectively qualified" " are, merely by their level of education, objectively successful? Even if they blow every forecast they make? Not in any world I live in. The end product has to be able to be at least moderately correct to measure success. Presumably, better science will lead to a greater probability of success, but science alone is an ingredient in the stew, not the stew itself. The end product is how the stew tastes. If you're telling me the most highly trained meteorologist in the world that, for whatever reason, couldn't properly interpret a surface map and make a forecast at least as good as the average meteorologist would still be considered employable, let alone successful, then you live in a really different world than me. Your dismissive attitude toward TV mets, many of whom do have a degree in meteorology, just not an advanced degree, is just typical science snobbery. There are some, like Dick Goddard in Cleveland, and James Spann in Birmingham, that can more than hold their own in forecasting with any meteorologist with an advanced degree.
1727. sar2401
Quoting Xyrus2000:


At best you're demonstrating your ignorance here. Hurricane season predictions aren't real predictions. They're educated guesses. There is no model in existence that has any skill when it comes to hurricane season predictions. They can look at analogs and climatology, but that's about it.

The best weather models in the world show very little skill beyond 10 days. A hurricane season is significantly longer than that. Even if you ran a million ensembles you'd get is an average with very wide standard deviations (essentially useless).

What you're looking for is, in a word, impossible. You somehow think it's possible to predict specific small-scale events over a long time period in a chaotic system. We don't even have the capability to collect data at the kinds of resolutions needed for a model like that, let alone the storage and computational capacity to do so. Your comparison is the equivalent of telling a firefighter he sucks at his job because he can't put out a nuclear bomb with his firehouse.

Of course, you can critique all you want (as many on here do) but at least keep it in the realm of reality.

Really? Then why does Dr. Gray's web page say:

Dr. Gray's hurricane forecast has gained international attention, and won him the Neil Frank Award of the National Hurricane Conference in 1995

Dr. Gray apparently thinks it's a forecast. He even got an award because of his forecasts. His current forecast id titled -

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014

Not "Extended Range Educated Guess and Landfall Strike Probability Based on my Educated Guess". Dr. Gray apparently believes his model is beyond an educated guess, otherwise, why would a highly educated scientist call it a "forecast"? You can't have it both way. Either he's a scientist, using science to make a forecast, or he's essentially a hurricane psychic.
1726. Sar2401 The rebuttal on my psychic analogy was correct..even if accurate 100% of the time. It is these points of interest that you put forth I desire addressed. It is the 'objectively qualified' that stumps me. Results must be measured against the qualifications. Surely science has got to know that science does indeed know it is still at the bottom of the feeding trough. Albeit the trough sits higher than any other. History proves what I have just said as absolute fact. What ever the greatest break-through is today is nothing compared to what's in store, in regard to that same break-through, tomorrow.
Quoting 1727. sar2401:


Really? Then why does Dr. Gray's web page say:

Dr. Gray's hurricane forecast has gained international attention, and won him the Neil Frank Award of the National Hurricane Conference in 1995

Dr. Gray apparently thinks it's a forecast. He even got an award because of his forecasts. His current forecast id titled -

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014

Not "Extended Range Educated Guess and Landfall Strike Probability Based on my Educated Guess". Dr. Gray apparently believes his model is beyond an educated guess, otherwise, why would a highly educated scientist call it a "forecast"? You can't have it both way. Either he's a scientist, using science to make a forecast, or he's essentially a hurricane psychic.

These whole episodes with the hurricane forecasting come off as presented by the Great Lords of Weather. I am not disputing they are simply the brightest minds available. Who is disputing they miserably flunked last years exam? I am not saying they should have been right. I am saying they made the exam themselves surely not to make a public spectacle of how wrong a segment of 'objectively qualified' meteorologic wisdom can be.
Thank-you gentleman. Simple wisdom will always outshine polished intelligence.
1731. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:
It really wasn't an "analysis" - it was a rehashing of fairly basic radar meteorology. And this was also a storm that analyzed that very radar data for, because it was a storm that I spotted along with other students. I've re-read your original post, re-read the summary from NWS Kansas City, re-read my post, and still so no issue or "disagreement" between them.
Perhaps you could elaborate on how you believe I was incorrect?
Usually the level 2 files require more resources to run than the level 3 files. If you can't get the L2 files from the NOAA HAS system to work with your old GR2 anymore (I do not recall the files changing to where it would prevent them from loading) then I would suggest using the free NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit.

I posted a picture of the radar from the KC NWS that the meteorologists who wrote the report stated showed an anvil shield and overshooting top. You said, in post 1371 -

The image you are showing right now really isn't showing the anvil, and the reflectivity isn't going to correlate to the overshooting top. More than likely, the overshooting top would be located in the area of strongest updraft, which you will typically find in the WER or BWER area. In this image, its the no reflectivity area within the curve of the hook.

Either I am unable to understand basic English, or you stated that what was shown on the KC NWS web page did not show an anvil shield or overshooting top, when the caption stated it did show an anvil shield and overshooting top. I will leave it to others to read what you wrote, what was written by the KC NWS, and decide what you really said. I've stated it as plainly as I know how.

I downloaded the trial version of GRLevel3 and it didn't function at all. I found the issue wasn't system resources, of which I have plenty, it's my integrated graphics hardware on my ancient laptop. As the GRX web page states, "...requires Shader Model 2.0 or higher support in the graphics hardware". My graphics hardware doesn't support Shader 2.0. and there's no way to upgrade it so it will do so. There was apparently some file change, because the HAS files do not load any longer with my version of Level2. I have downloaded the Weather and Climate Toolkit and have been trying to get the FTP gateway to work. I get the following error message when I try to access the link from the main page -

Multiple Choices

The document name you requested (/tg/rpccds.html) could not be found on this server. However, we found documents with names similar to the one you requested.
Available documents:

/tg/rpccds.php (common basename)
Please consider informing the owner of the referring page about the broken link.
Apache Server at www.weather.gov Port 80


Any idea what the cause of this error is? So far, this has not been the most user friendly software I've ever used.
1732. rod2635
Quoting 1727. sar2401:


Really? Then why does Dr. Gray's web page say:

Dr. Gray's hurricane forecast has gained international attention, and won him the Neil Frank Award of the National Hurricane Conference in 1995

Dr. Gray apparently thinks it's a forecast. He even got an award because of his forecasts. His current forecast id titled -

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014

Not "Extended Range Educated Guess and Landfall Strike Probability Based on my Educated Guess". Dr. Gray apparently believes his model is beyond an educated guess, otherwise, why would a highly educated scientist call it a "forecast"? You can't have it both way. Either he's a scientist, using science to make a forecast, or he's essentially a hurricane psychic.


No, not a psychic. A professional genuinely trying to make progress in a very difficult challenge. And when the reality departs from the forecast it is an opportunity to go back and determine why and learn from the experience to improve the forecast in the future.
1733. LargoFl
1734. LargoFl

...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE SANTA FE RIVER AT
THREE RIVERS ESTATES. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN SEVERAL OTHER LOCAL RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE SANTA FE RIVER AT
THREE RIVERS ESTATES. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN SEVERAL OTHER LOCAL RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Although I already posted this on Tropicsweatherpr's blog I think its worth mentioning given the remarkable -SOI crash that has commenced the last several days, due in large part to the MJO pushing into the western hemisphere (phases 8 & 1), w/ latest daily value @ -35.83...
Link
"Worth noting on the equatorial temperature analysis via CPC, the 28C isotherm after retreating westward slightly due to the Upwelling portion of the Kelvin Wave which is a natural response to the initial powerful downwelling Kelvin Wave that hit South America & sloshes back to the west in the form of slow moving Rossby Waves, that lead to cooler upwelling in the Equatorial Pacific. However, because of how strong the first Kelvin Wave was, this severely dampens the base state of the Pacific, thus when the inevitable Upwelling portion of the KW arrives, it is consequently much weaker simply due to the fact that the water being upwelled is significantly warmer than normal.


This observation is verified by looking @ the latest OSCAR surface current analysis that shows a new Eq Kelvin Wave building in the western Pacific, & of course has already started to make headway towards the International Dateline.


You can also see this new Kelvin Wave makes sense in the grand scheme of things as we have observed recently w/ regards to equatorial depth anomalies, note w/ each solid line I have marked the downwelling portion of the Kelvin Wave that brings warm water from the western Pacific eastward & the dotted lines showing the upwelling portion of the Kelvin Wave that leads to opposite effects & is a response to the downwelling Kelvin Wave. Given that these Kelvin Waves propagate near 3 m/s, this means it usually should take one about 2 months to cross the Pacific which is consistent with this diagram below exemplifying the flipping of the KW phase taking around 2 months or so. If this is indeed to be true, then it likely means that knowing the current upwelling Kelvin Wave began to crank up near the end of Feb-beginning of March, that we are likely now in the midst of the formation of a new downwelling Equatorial KW that will likely only enhance the warmer than normal water the first one left behind & should force the 28C isotherm @ the surface to push deeper into the eastern Pacific.


The oncoming downwelling Kelvin Wave is certainly receiving a lot of support via the current strong phase 8 & 1 MJO pulse...


As the eastward shift in the MJO convective signal, typical in El Nino conditions is manifesting itself, not to mention the strong downward phase that has engulfed the western Pacific is very favorable to inducing westerly wind stress via Rossby Waves, etc that only invigorates the eastward propagation & intensity of the downwelling Oceanic Equatorial Kelvin Wave that plays a significant part in the evolution of El Nino. In fact, I have analyzed from a historical perspective all previous strong MJO events in phases 8 & 1 during the AMJ tri-monthly period & some interesting revelations appear. Here's a list of all years with 1.5 sigma amplitude or greater MJO pulse in either Phase 8 & 1 during AMJ
1977 (El Nino)
1979 (Neutral)
1980 (Neutral)
1981 (Neutral)
1982 (El Nino)
1986 (El Nino)
1987 (El Nino)
1988 (La Nina)
1990 (Neutral)
1991 (El Nino)
1993 (Neutral)
1994 (El Nino)
1995 (La Nina)
1996 (Neutral)
1997 (Strong El Nino)
1999 (La Nina)
2001 (Neutral)
2002 (El Nino)
2003 (Neutral)
2004 (El Nino)
2005 (La Nina)
2006 (El Nino)
2007 (La Nina)
2008 (La Nina)
2009 (El Nino)
2012 (Neutral)
2013 (Neutral)

Here's a look @ > or = 2 sigma amplitude Phase 8 & 1 MJO events in AMJ tri-monthly period
1977 (El Nino)
1979 (Neutral)
1980 (Neutral)
1981 (Neutral)
1982 (El Nino)
1986 (El Nino)
1987 (El Nino)
1988 (La Nina)
1991 (El Nino)
1994 (El Nino)
1995 (La Nina)
1996 (Neutral)
1997 (El Nino)
1999 (La Nina)
2001 (Neutral)
2002 (El Nino)
2003 (Neutral)
2005 (La Nina)
2006 (El Nino)
2007 (La Nina)
2008 (La Nina)
2009 (El Nino)
2012 (Neutral)
2013 (Neutral)

2.5 sigma amplitude or greater MJO events
1979 (Neutral)
1980 (Neutral)
1981 (Neutral)
1986 (El Nino)
1987 (El Nino)
1988 (La Nina)
1991 (El Nino)
1997 (El Nino)
2002 (El Nino)
2005 (La Nina)
2008 (La Nina)
2009 (El Nino)
2012 (Neutral)
2013 (Neutral)

This reveals that there is a correspondence between oncoming El Nino events & MJO behavior, in that when the MJO is in favorable juxtaposition to the Pacific to generate westerly wind bursts in the Eastern Pacific, Western Hemisphere & Africa (phase 8 & 1) that there's a tendency for stronger MJO events in these phases during the developing stages of El Nino than there is during Neutral or La Nina events. In fact, all but one El Nino event since 1974 (including the current El Nino evolving in the Pacific) featured a 1.5 sigma or greater MJO event in phase 8 & 1 in AMJ tri-monthly period. Unlike analysis of La Nina events I was also undertaking & its relation to the Maritime Continent, the percentages of successively stronger phase 8 & 1 MJO events remain consistently higher than either Neutral or La Nina events, evidence that the MJO @ least plays a role in the evolution of El nino. Understanding El Nino's still heavily debated relationship to the MJO will be vital to grasping an adequate comprehension of the processes associated with the birth, climax, & decay of El Nino events...

A great example of the MJO's influence on ENSO is best exemplified by the spring of 1997, its fairly easy to see the MJO's influence on the 5 day mean OSCAR surface current analysis in the Pacific, with each push of the MJO into western hemisphere & Indian Ocean immediately followed by a westward burst in surface currents pushing warm water from the western Pacific towards the east. I also suspect that the period of each MJO pulse in the Pacific near that of the Equatorial Kelvin Wave in 1997 maybe a likely reason why that El Nino became particularly strong.

JFM 1997 MJO


AMJ 1997 MJO


Now let's look @ what the surface currents of the Pacific looked like w/ the first MJO pulse that struck in January. Note how the strong easterly currents evident @ the start of January completely collapse by mid January when the MJO has started to decay into the western hemisphere

Before MJO pulse #1


After MJO pulse #1


The decay of the easterly surface currents continues with the 2nd MJO burst into the Pacific

Before MJO pulse #2


After MJO pulse #2


Compared to the first 2 MJO pulses, the reason why the westerly surface currents continue to intensify between MJO pulses can likely be attributed to the MJO's persistence in the western hemisphere...

Before MJO pulse #3



After MJO pulse #3


Notice how between the MJO pulses, anomalous westerly surface currents make little-no progress in regards to increasing intensification. Watch how the westerly surface current anomalies go completely nuts in mid-late June, solidifying El Nino, as the MJO pushes once again w/ ferocity into the western hemisphere & eastern Indian Ocean

Before MJO pulse #4


After MJO pulse #4


Hopefully, you can now physically see the importance of the MJO in generating westerly wind stress & surface currents, thus promoting El Nino. Also, here are the results of my aforementioned MJO-ENSO research...

Mean % of ENSO states & 1.5, 2, & 2.5 amplitude or greater AMJ Phase 8 & 1 MJO events


& of course while I'm at it, I might as well throw some of my thinking on the upcoming hurricane season... :)
Morning




Large area under Slight Severe Outlook tomorrow

interesting post 53 hope everyone has a nice tues
test test test

TEST TEST TEST
EXCERCISE


Tropical Storm 84L (QUINN) Warning #08 - EXERCISE
‎Today, ‎May ‎6, ‎2014, ‏‎12 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
Issued: Tue 06 May 2014 06:00Z
TC Warning Graphic
TC Warning Text
TC JMV Data
TC Gold Ovly
TC Warning Shapefile (zip format)
TC Google Earth (KMZ format)
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page


Hurricane 82L (URSULA) Warning #11 - EXERCISE
‎Today, ‎May ‎6, ‎2014, ‏‎12 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
Issued: Tue 06 May 2014 06:00Z
TC Warning Graphic
TC Warning Text
TC JMV Data
TC Gold Ovly
TC Warning Shapefile (zip format)
TC Google Earth (KMZ format)
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page
1741. Gearsts

2014 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic



East Pacific



Central Pacific



West Pacific



Indian Ocean


green ball91B.INVEST



Southern Hemisphere
The Steady rise

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That looks like a 100% probability
REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.
Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points
500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points
Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points
Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points
Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
*************************************************
Quoting 1747. Sfloridacat5:



That looks like a 100% probability
yeah we are likely to have the first TCFA in epac today at some point
1750. StormWx
Good Morning everyone! Now that we are past May the 4th be with you and Cinco De Mayo we can talk about El Nino so more today!

All Nino regions above 0.5C at this hour. Doom lies just ahead.





Dr Wenju Cai, a climate expert at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, said rises in Pacific Ocean temperature above those seen in previous El Nino years and the quick movement of warm water eastwards had raised fears of a significant event.

"I think this event has lots of characteristics with a strong El Nino," said Cai.

"A strong El Nino appears early and we have seen this event over the last couple of months, which is unusual; the wind that has caused the warming is quite large and there is what we call the pre-conditioned effects, where you must have a lot of heat already in the system to have a big El Nino event."


Link
Good Morning; I see Keeper is on it with the potential E-Pac system.  Here is the current rainbow loop shot.  A healthy moist environment where the storm is tying to spin up right around 10N-111W:




Australia issued an El Nino alert on expectations the weather-altering pattern will probably develop as early as July, potentially bringing drought across the Asia-Pacific region and heavier-than-usual rains to South America.

The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today, citing large anomalies below the surface and increasingly warm surface temperatures. Models suggested that the likelihood of an event is at least 70 percent, the government forecaster said.


Link
Quoting 1752. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; I see Keeper is on it with the potential E-Pac system.  Here is the current rainbow loop shot.  A healthy moist environment where the storm is tying to spin up right around 10N-111W:





its not tying to spin up it is spinning up nicly too at the moment
XX/AOI/E
MARK
9.1N 110.3W
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.

Would be an early start to the E-Pac season if this one goes. Would only note (and I still cannot post the CIMMS sheer charts for some reason) that the system is headed towards sheer bands of around 20 knots on the western and northern flank. The healthiest southern flank of the disturbance is in the lowest sheer at the moment where the main convection is firing over the warmest ssts as well.


ABNORMAL TEMP DATA FOR APIL 2014
Al Roker (Today Show) is going to interview the President about the release of the New Climate Assessment Report.

Welcome to the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.

A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

60 member "Advisory Committee."
Quoting 1757. weathermanwannabe:

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.

Would be an early start to the E-Pac season if this one goes. Would only note (and I still cannot post the CIMMS sheer charts for some reason) that the system is headed towards sheer bands of around 20 knots on the western and northern flank. The healthiest southern flank of the disturbance is in the lowest sheer at the moment where the main convection is firing over the warmest ssts as well.



if it does form its only 9 days early the 15th is next Thursday
1762. ncstorm
Good Morning..and off to work..remember to link your sources..

thats a big one..

Drought Plagues Brazil's Biggest City

SÃO PAULO--Officials vowed not to ration water in São Paulo even as a drought reduced the main reservoir serving South America's largest city to a record low just weeks before it hosts the opening game for soccer's World Cup.

The greater São Paulo region has already enacted conservation measures to try to reduce water consumption by its 20 million residents. The governor of São Paulo state, Geraldo Alckmin, who is running in state elections in October, vowed on Sunday not to ration this year.

Despite his pledge, hundreds of thousands of metropolitan residents are already seeing their water supplies reduced, a sign critics say that conditions are worse than São Paulo officials will admit publicly.

As officials on Monday said the main reservoir serving São Paulo reached 10% of capacity, its lowest level on record--amid environmental degradation and a drought--some predicted solutions will only get tougher the longer authorities put off emergency measures.


Link
Quoting 1762. ncstorm:

Good Morning..and off to work..remember to link your sources..

thats a big one..


ya right nc I will get right on that

have a good day at work

source " blogger NC"
1765. ncstorm
Quoting 1764. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya right nc I will get right on that

have a good day at work

source blogger NC


You too Keep..
I will I start in 30mins as soon as the kids are all out the door
Quoting 1759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ABNORMAL TEMP DATA FOR APIL 2014



Aqua/MODIS
2014/126
05/06/2014
07:30 UTC
Fires in southcentral Russia

Link
Quoting 1739. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

TEST TEST TEST



The yearly Navy exercise that affects every installation on the East Coast.

Link of source for those who question
Quoting 1760. Sfloridacat5:

Al Roker (Today Show) is going to interview the President about the release of the New Climate Assessment Report...


I'm hoping (imagining?) that Dr. Masters will post a new blog entry to talk about what's found in that report, which was just released:

"Global warming is affecting where and how Americans live and work, and evidence is mounting that burning fossil fuels has made extreme weather such as heat waves and heavy precipitation much more likely in the USA, according to a massive federal report released Tuesday at the White House.

"Climate change is here and now, and not in some distant time or place," said Texas Tech University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, one of the authors of the 1,100-page National Climate Assessment (NCA), the largest, most comprehensive U.S.-focused climate change report ever produced."

-------------------------

"Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," a draft version of the report says. The evidence is visible everywhere from the top of the atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean, it goes on.

"Americans are noticing changes all around them. Summers are longer and hotter, and periods of extreme heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours, though in many regions there are longer dry spells in between.">


Alarming stuff, indeed. We are headed for deep, deep trouble, and we're getting there faster than any scientist ever thought possible.
Here's a link to the Climate Report

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
Quoting 1769. Neapolitan:



I'm hoping (imagining?) that Dr. Masters will post a new blog entry to talk about what's found in that report, which was just released:





faster and faster
Can't wait to see how Joe Bastardi and others, blast the report. Like to hear their denials, point by point--if they can.
Gonna be one of those days on the blog...... must find other interests.
Quoting 1772. originalLT:

Can't wait to see how Joe Bastardi and others, blast the report. Like to hear their denials, point by point--if they can.
its to be like a snowball rolling down hill getting bigger and bigger
faster and faster as we move along except on this hill there is no bottom to smash into so it will be forever rolling down the hill

enjoy the ride
Quoting 1773. nrtiwlnvragn:

Gonna be one of those days on the blog...... must find other interests.
it will be alright nrt
1776. Torito
All eyes on the EPAC...





It looks better than yesterday... Maybe it has a shot. Just maybe.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 6 2014
==========================
Yesterday's low pressure area has intensified into a well marked low pressure area over the Comorin area and neighborhood.

The low pressure area will move northwestward and concentrate into a depression by tomorrow.
Quoting 1776. Torito:

All eyes on the EPAC...

It looks better than yesterday... Maybe it has a shot. Just maybe.


its got to persist from now and the next 18 hrs or so if its still there by sunset may get tag at least first invest
Quoting 1726. sar2401:


So you're saying people "who've studied a subject for years/decades are considered "objectively qualified" " are, merely by their level of education, objectively successful? Even if they blow every forecast they make?


Not even close to what I was implying. People who are objectively qualified in their field make mistakes. They make errors. They have biases. They can fail. Even the best people screw up. You're deliberately misinterpreting what I wrote.

In fact, scientists in general have more failures than successes. That's the nature of studying the unknown. Countless hypothesis studied then rejected. For every published paper you see and breakthrough you read about there are hundreds (if not more) that were thrown out for being wrong. The same goes for inventions or any other major innovations.

More on topic, models are not perfect. The data we feed them are not perfect. Our observations are not perfect. The results are not perfect. Meteorologist take what the models show, combine that with their own knowledge and experience, and try to come up with the most accurate forecast. THIS IS HARD TO DO.


Not in any world I live in. The end product has to be able to be at least moderately correct to measure success. Presumably, better science will lead to a greater probability of success, but science alone is an ingredient in the stew, not the stew itself. The end product is how the stew tastes. If you're telling me the most highly trained meteorologist in the world that, for whatever reason, couldn't properly interpret a surface map and make a forecast at least as good as the average meteorologist would still be considered employable, let alone successful, then you live in a really different world than me.


Where are you getting this from? I said nothing of the sort. If a highly skilled person screws up, they screw up. If they can provide a reasonable explanation then not only themselves but everyone can learn from those mistakes. But there is no such thing as an infallible person. A top meteorologist can still miss something that someone else catches. That doesn't make him or her a failure.

If someone consistently fails, then they aren't really a top meteorologist, are they?

Your dismissive attitude toward TV mets, many of whom do have a degree in meteorology, just not an advanced degree, is just typical science snobbery. There are some, like Dick Goddard in Cleveland, and James Spann in Birmingham, that can more than hold their own in forecasting with any meteorologist with an advanced degree.


I wasn't being dismissive, or dealing out a dose of "scientific snobbery". I was being factual. The requirements for becoming a TV met are lower than those required for working in the NWS nerve centers. That in no way means that there aren't TV mets who couldn't work for the NWS if they wanted to.
1780. Torito
Did the blog glitch again?....
This will be tagged as an invest today, imo.
1782. ricderr
At best you're demonstrating your ignorance here. Hurricane season predictions aren't real predictions. They're educated guesses. There is no model in existence that has any skill when it comes to hurricane season predictions. They can look at analogs and climatology, but that's about it.


i find this paragraph interesting....can someone define the difference between a prediction and an educated guess?
Quoting ricderr:
At best you're demonstrating your ignorance here. Hurricane season predictions aren't real predictions. They're educated guesses. There is no model in existence that has any skill when it comes to hurricane season predictions. They can look at analogs and climatology, but that's about it.


i find this paragraph interesting....can someone define the difference between a prediction and an educated guess?



Merriam Webster

pre·dic·tion
noun \pri-ˈdik-shən\

: a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future

: the act of saying what will happen in the future : the act of predicting something

Related Words


foreboding, harbinger, omen, portent, prevision, prospectus, sign; anticipation, foreknowledge; foresight; conjecture, guess, surmise
watching the tail end of the front just north of hispanola
1785. JRRP
1786. ricderr
Merriam Webster

pre·dic·tion
noun \pri-ˈdik-shən\

: a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future

: the act of saying what will happen in the future : the act of predicting something


thanx cat5....now how does that differ from an educated guess....not looking for right or wrong here......because i think you can argue they are one and the same...but how do others see the difference as i do not
Quoting 1781. CybrTeddy:

This will be tagged as an invest today, imo.

Good morning everyone. Now that is one healthy looking Tropical Disturbance.
Quoting ricderr:
Merriam Webster

pre%uFFFDdic%uFFFDtion
noun \pri-%u02C8dik-sh%u0259n\

: a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future

: the act of saying what will happen in the future : the act of predicting something


thanx cat5....now how does that differ from an educated guess....not looking for right or wrong here......because i think you can argue they are one and the same...but how do others see the difference as i do not


I guess it all depends on how you look at things. I know in reading, they are one in the same.

Here's an example from a reading strategy.

A prediction is an educated guess about something that will come later in the text. (http://udleditions.cast.org/strategy_predict.html ).

Wiki Answers says that an "educated prediction" is an "educated guess."
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_an_educated_pre diction

So I'm not sure you can separate the two.


Quoting 1781. CybrTeddy:
This will be tagged as an invest today, imo.


It's definitely getting "the look".
Quoting 1785. JRRP:


Sal not as bad.
1791. ricderr
Tropical Pacific continues to warm; El Niño likely in 2014
Issued on Tuesday 6 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.
For El Niño to be established and maintained, coupling needs to occur between the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean, evident by further and persistent weakening of the trade winds and a consistent increase in cloudiness near the Date Line. These atmospheric characteristics of El Niño are forecast to become evident over the coming months.
El Niño impacts climate across much of the world, including below average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions, and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Niño is usually associated with below average rainfall over southern and eastern inland Australia, with about two thirds of El Niño events since 1900 resulting in major drought over large parts of the continent.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral through late autumn and early winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop by early spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
1792. ricderr
Wiki Answers says that an "educated prediction" is an "educated guess."
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_an_educated_pre diction

So I'm not sure you can separate the two.



cat 5...that would be my understanding also....however as from the original paragraph i pasted others see it as two different things.....just caught my curiosity :-)
Remember how these things look in the early morning hours only to look like it's former self once the afternoon late comes around..May I remind you of Dorian last year?,

This is honestly a modest question what is the hurricane on the front page where it's titled "billion dollar disasters".
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1707. KoritheMan:

"Professionals" (or more accurately, well-educated weather nerds) are objectively more qualified to analyze and predict the complex atmospheric dynamics than those who are not. That being said, I think that sometimes the more knowledgeable people actually overanalyze the forecasting situation, myself included. You don't need to look at every parameter in every single model in order to churn out a good forecast.

As Grothar said, "Look at the weather".


I love the probably apocryphal story about Winston Churchill, whose barometer was showing "FAIR" in the midst of a downpour. Supposedly he threw the thing through the window saying "There, see for yourself, you damn fool!".
1796. ricderr
updated by the aussie mets......if the model means holds true we would have a moderate el nino



Quoting 1793. washingtonian115:

Remember how these things look in the early morning hours only to look like it's former self once the afternoon late comes around..May I remind you of Dorian last year?,

This is honestly a modest question what is the hurricane on the front page where it's titled "billion dollar disasters".

Wind shear is high to its northwest.


Link

And increasing.


Link

Regardless of what becomes of this heavy rain which may lead to mudslides may be the result.
1798. jpsb
Quoting 1718. Xyrus2000:



Incorrect. Success is not the bottom line. That's "ends-justify-means" type of thinking which, at best, is a terrible way to approach anything. Faulty methodology can still lead to right answers, or answers that may be correct but aren't useful.



Since we are playing what ifs

A well respected psychic , known for making accurate predictions, predicts an 8.1 earth quake in LA next week. Millions flee the city an avoid being killed when the predicted earth quake strikes.

"answers that may be correct but aren't useful" ?

reliably correct answers are always useful.

Quoting 1731. sar2401:

I posted a picture of the radar from the KC NWS that the meteorologists who wrote the report stated showed an anvil shield and overshooting top. You said, in post 1371 -

The image you are showing right now really isn't showing the anvil, and the reflectivity isn't going to correlate to the overshooting top. More than likely, the overshooting top would be located in the area of strongest updraft, which you will typically find in the WER or BWER area. In this image, its the no reflectivity area within the curve of the hook.

Either I am unable to understand basic English, or you stated that what was shown on the KC NWS web page did not show an anvil shield or overshooting top, when the caption stated it did show an anvil shield and overshooting top. I will leave it to others to read what you wrote, what was written by the KC NWS, and decide what you really said.
No, Sar. In the post you provided, you showed the following image:


If you look at the description that NWS KC provides for that image, they do not say that that the image shows an anvil:
"At the time of this image, several reports of brief tornadoes were received in and around Maysville and Amity, MO. While the radar's velocity couplet (right) wasn't particularly impressive, the storm exhibited a very textbook supercell structure in its reflectivity appearance."

Now, if you were to look around on that page at other images, you would see some that do show the anvil, such as this one:

That image shows the anvil because it is incorporating more than a single tilt in the view. The image you showed was 0.5deg only, which at that range is still sampling the low-to-mid levels of the storm, not the anvil. This image also could not have showed an overshooting top, because again, the radar data was showing the low-to-mid levels of the storm, not the upper portion extending into the troposphere. You'll also notice from the cross section slice that the overshooting top exists over the top of the low echo region near the surface, just as a mentioned in my original reply.

So no, my analysis (in your words) did not disagree, it was correct. Your description of what their caption said was also just not accurate. I'm going to try and be fair and for the time being assume it was an honest mistake on your part, and what happened was that you simply misunderstood what you were seeing in the radar data.
1800. LargoFl
here's an interesting climate change report some here may find interesting rummaging thru.............Link
Well here you go


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061449 CCA
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE DATE AND TIME.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH