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April 2011: historic U.S. extremes in rains, floods, tornadoes, and fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:40 PM GMT on May 10, 2011

"April was a month of historic climate extremes across much of the United States, including: record breaking precipitation that resulted in historic flooding; recurrent violent weather systems that broke records for tornado and severe weather outbreaks; and wildfire activity that scorched more than twice the area of any April this century." Thus begins the April 2011 climate summary for the U.S. issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. The month featured very cold air spilling southwards from Canada, which gave Washington, Oregon, and Idaho top-ten coldest Aprils. Exceptionally warm air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico, which had its 3rd highest sea surface temperatures on record during April, gave Florida, Louisiana, and Texas top-ten warmest Aprils. The battleground where these two radically different air masses collided featured an exceptionally strong jet stream, which set the stage for the world's two largest tornado outbreaks in history: April 25 - 28 (201 confirmed tornadoes) and April 14 - 16 (155 confirmed tornadoes.) Incredibly heavy rains also resulted, with six states along the Ohio River and Mississippi River watersheds recording their all-time wettest April in history. Eight other states had top-ten wettest Aprils, and the month was the 10th wettest April in U.S. history. Some areas along the Ohio River Valley received up to 20 inches of rain during the month, which is nearly half their normal annual precipitation. April's extreme weather can be blamed in large part on the on-going La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. La Niña alters the path of the jet stream, and makes the predominant storm track in winter and spring traverse the regions that saw heavy precipitation. Climate change may have played a role in April's incredible U.S. extreme weather, though a preliminary investigation by NOAA's Climate Science Investigations (CSI) team concluded that "a change in the mean climate properties that are believed to be particularly relevant to severe storms has thus not been detected for April, at least during the last 30 years."


Figure 1. Six states along the Ohio River and Mississippi River watersheds had their all-time wettest April in history during 2011. In contrast, Texas had its 5th driest April on record, after recording its driest March ever. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Great Texas drought of 2011 intensifies
April 2011 was the 5th driest and 5th hottest April in Texas history, going back 117 years. Exceptionally dry conditions have parched the soil and vegetation in Texas, which recorded precipitation of just 1.68 inches (43 mm,) on average, since February 1st. This is easily its driest February-April period on record for the state, nearly an inch less than the previous record (2.56 inches or 65 mm, Feb - Apr 1996.) The six-month period November 2010 - April 2011 was the 2nd driest such period on record. Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor, 94 percent of Texas is in severe to exceptional drought.

As a result of the great drought, an all-time April record of 1.79 million acres of land burned last month in the U.S., mostly in Texas. Much of the fuel for the fires came from dried underbrush and grasses which experienced ideal growing conditions during the summer of 2010, when there was abundant rain across the region. Nation-wide, the year-to-date period, January - April, has the greatest acreage burned in history, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.


Figure 2. The acreage burned in U.S. wildfire in April 2011 was by far the highest in the past decade. Most of the damage was done by a few huge fires. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

April 2011 smashes all-time tornado records
The largest tornado outbreak and greatest one-day total for tornadoes in history occurred during the historic April 25 - 28, 2011 tornado outbreak, said NOAA in a press release updated yesterday. They estimate 190 tornadoes touched down during the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28 (134 tornadoes have already been confirmed, with several weeks of damage surveys still to come.) NOAA's estimate for the number of tornadoes during the three-day April 25 - 28, 2011 Super Outbreak, is 305 (201 are confirmed so far.) This is nearly double the previous record for a multi-day tornado outbreak of 155 tornadoes, set just two weeks previously during the April 14 - 16, 2011 outbreak. There were tornado outbreaks in May 2004 (385 tornadoes) and May 2003 (401 tornadoes) that had more tornadoes, but these outbreaks occurred over an eight-day and eleven-day period, respectively, and were not due to a single storm system. Prior to April 2011, the most tornadoes in a 24-hour period, and in an outbreak lasting less than four days, was the 148 tornadoes in the Super Outbreak of April 3 - 4, 1974. The final tornado count for April 2011 will approach the all-time monthly record of 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.


Figure 3. The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April 27, 2011 killed 65 people and injured over 1000. The tornado carved a path of destruction 80.3 miles (129.2 km) long, and up to 1.5 miles (2.4 km) wide. On May 4, 2011, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite observed this segment of the tornado's track, near Birmingham, Alabama. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

The death toll for the epic outbreak continues to fluctuate, and currently stands at 326, with 309 fatalities during the 24-hour-period from 8:00 a.m. April 27 to 8:00 a.m. April 28. The estimated 326 deaths makes this the 4th deadliest tornado outbreak on record. Only the great Tri-State tornado outbreak of 1925 (747 killed), the 1936 Tupelo-Gainsville tornado outbreak (454 killed), and a 1932 outbreak (332 killed) had more deaths.


Figure 4. The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado as it headed toward the Univ. of Alabama on April 27, 2011 (video shot by Chris England, a Univ. of Alabama student).

Mississippi River crests at Memphis: 2nd highest flood on record
The Mississippi River has crested at Memphis, Tennessee this morning, reaching the 2nd highest level on record. The flood height of 47.79' was just below the all-time record height of 48.7' set in the great 1937 flood. Fortunately, the levees constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers are much taller and stronger than was the case 74 years ago, and the mainline Mississippi River levees are expected to hold back this record flood and prevent a multi-billion dollar flood disaster. However, flooding on tributaries feeding into the Mississippi is severe in many locations along the Mississippi, since the tremendous volume of water confined behind the levees is backing up into the tributaries.

Downstream from Memphis, flood waters pouring in from the Arkansas River, Yazoo River, and other tributaries are expected to swell the Mississippi high enough to beat the all-time record at Vicksburg, Mississippi by 1.3' on May 19, by 6' at Natchez, Mississippi on May 21, and by 3.2' at Red River Landing on May 22. The Mississippi is forecast to crest at 19.5' in New Orleans on May 23. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet, so it is a good bet that the Army Corps will fully open the Bonnet Carre' Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans this week. The Bonnet Carre' Spillway was partially opened yesterday, and has the capacity to take 250,000 cubic feet per second of Mississippi River water into Lake Pontchartrain. This may not be enough to keep flood heights from rising dangerously close to the top of New Orleans' levees, and the Army Corps may elect to open the final relief valve they have at their disposal--the massive Morganza Spillway, 35 miles upstream from Baton Rouge. The Morganza Spillway has been opened only once in history, back in 1973. Rainfall amounts of at most 0.75 inches are expected over the Lower Mississippi River watershed over the next five days, which should prevent flood heights from rising above the current forecast.

Good links to follow the flood:
Summary forecast of all crests on Lower Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
Wundermap for Vicksburg, MS with USGS River overlay turned on.
National Weather Service "May 2011 Mississippi River Flood" web page

Jeff Masters
RunningWater
RunningWater
over the road to the campground from the flooding White River. The river is still falling and should be off this road soon. Will be interesting to see how much damage is done to the road.

Flood Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Levi32:
SSD visible loop

Convection has been supported by the gulf stream since coming off of the land.


Have you seen those shear maps?
Quoting Levi32:
Invest page on SSD site:



Shes already developing a front/outflow that is extending all the way back to the Georgia/Florida Border. She'll unzip all the way back it looks.
XX/XX/XL
Aye Captain- I can't hold her together! She's unzippin' at the seams, Captain!
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Shes already developing a front/outflow that is extending all the way back to the Georgia/Florida Border. She'll unzip all the way back it looks.


Probably, but it is very interesting-looking for the moment anyway. Were it later in the year, I might be concerned that this was one of the situations where home-grown tropical development could occur from an offshore-moving MCS. It has happened before, but the water outside of the gulf stream is still below 26C right now.
When I read the article, the article stated that this was a "Hypothetical scenario" of what could happen if the old river control structure failed.

Quoting beell:
Some of you may remember some conversation on this blog from last weekend about a collapse of some part of the I-10 Whiskey Bay bridge over the Atchafalaya Basin on April 18th, 1973 due to record flooding related to the operation of the Old River Control Structure and/or the Morganza Spillway.

The source of this report was taken from page 16 of a technical bulletin published by Kazman and Johnson in 1980.
Kazmann, Raphael G. and David B. Johnson. 1980. If the Old River Control Structure Fails? Louisiana Water Resources Research Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, La.

Photobucket

Several good wubloggers made attempts to find some evidence of this event but were unsuccessful.

Sent a quick note the the Public Information Officer of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development on Sunday. Received a final reply this morning.

..."This event described below never occurred. There was a scour hole noted in the 1973 event upstream of the Whiskey Bay structure, but this was subsequently repaired..."

There ya go.


Latest from Oz:

I'm in western OK City...coordinates: 35.46112N - 97.62508W. I've got a feeling about this area. I'm going to stay put here until super cells build up this PM. Both webcams appear to be operating well.
512. beell
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
When I read the article, the article stated that this was a "Hypothetical scenario" of what could happen if the old river control structure failed.





That particular passage was contained in the "fact-based" summary of events leading up to the near loss of the ORCS.

The bulk of the report was indeed based on the potential problems to be expected if the Mississippi River were to shift to the Atchafalaya.
Spanking new ASCAT of that off FL..
Thunderstorms are starting to pop right over that huge fire in extreme S GA. I think Jacksonville is in for some nasty wx soon as an out flow boundry from last night's storms is right over NE FL.
516. beell
Quoting beell:


That particular passage was contained in the "fact-based" summary of events leading up to the near loss of the ORCS.

The bulk of the report was indeed based on the potential problems to be expected if the Mississippi River were to shift to the Atchafalaya.


Maybe I read it wrong!
517. Jax82
Da Blob watch is on.

Quoting fireflymom:
LOL those "echos" will evaporate before they get over us, I just know it.



These things ALWAYS miss Hockley - even in rainy times. This one is headed right for it. Woohoo!

I parked the truck out in the pasture with all the windows open and have left it there for nearly a week. If it happens, I'm taking credit.
Quoting DestinJeff:
After careful review and analysis all morning of latest satellite imagery, SSTs, steering layer maps from PSU, various model solutions, and blog comments ... I am p re pared to offer my myopic forecast for the remainder of today:

DOOM is not predicted. DOOM:CON remains at "Level 5, Ain't Happening".

Quoting Skyepony:
Spanking new ASCAT of that off FL..


Nice easterlies north of it, considering that it's embedded in a large-scale northwest surface flow.
Quoting Jax82:
Da Blob watch is on.



Storms are beginning to pop around you. Looks like you may finally get some good rain.
The Chart! Doom-con! Blob watch? LOL! It's May, folks...hehehe
Quoting Jax82:
Da Blob watch is on.



The nice thing is that MCS is pulling that old boundry into NE FL which is good because it will spark thunderstorms along it this afternoon instead of over GA as forecasted earlier.
524. beell
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
When I read the article, the article stated that this was a "Hypothetical scenario" of what could happen if the old river control structure failed.





Alright!
Hurricane Devo is correct. In my haste to post this earth shattering news, I missed at least one cue that this was a hypothetical. There were actually a couple.

In the following hypothetical scenario, we assume it will occur in 198X

I shall slink back to my cave now...

Thanks for getting it straight, H Devo!
Quoting beell:


Alright!
Hurricane Devo is correct. In my haste to post this earth shattering news, I missed at least one cue that this was a hypothetical. There were actually a couple.

In the following hypothetical scenario, we assume it will occur in 198X

I shall slink back to my cave now...

Thanks for getting it straight, H Devo!

You don't too take well to other's points of view that differ from yours, do you?
528. Jax82
Quoting RastaSteve:


Storms are beginning to pop around you. Looks like you may finally get some good rain.


We'll see, mr wunderground is only saying 20% chance today but i do see something on the radar near the beach about the size of a few street blocks. You can still see the honey prairie wildfire on radar too, its burning 10,000 new acres a day now! I also just noticed we tied a record high yesterday in jax at 93 degrees.
New invest

Quoting WoodyFL:
New invest



Maybe, maybe not. The SSD will sometimes put an invest floater up "unofficially" just because they feel like it's interesting, even if the navy hasn't declared an official invest.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Mudder, in an angressive re branding campaign executed during the Off Season, the Boys on the Board over at DOOMCON decided to rename it DOOM:CON.

Presumably this was an effort to maintain relevance in a world dominated by Social Media. You can Like DOOM:CON on facebook and follow The Chart on Twitter even!

(I know someone will run with that before I get the chance to!)

I love this blog! roflmao Bunderstag!
Quoting DestinJeff:
I am shocked that there is not an interactive The Chart yet. One with user-defined time ranges, cat levels, sub-basin (regions), and any other variable.
maybe we should make one
XX/AOI/XL


rushing headlong down the runway
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe, maybe not. The SSD will sometimes put an invest floater up "unofficially" just because they feel like it's interesting, even if the navy hasn't declared an official invest.


Yes, I am aware of that, but thank you for the information. It does look interesting.
Quoting jeffs713:


The rain we're talking about isn't whats on radar right now.


Heck, even if I do get some rain today, I may leave the truck in the field just to lure that stuff here.
Curious to see if this will be declared 92L soon.
Quoting bluheelrtx:


Heck, even if I do get some rain today, I may leave the truck in the field just to lure that stuff here.


probably wouldn't hurt to go wash the truck, too.
541. beell
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You don't too take well to other's points of view that differ from yours, do you?


Your comprehension of the written word seems to be even more impaired than mine.

That's something, anyway.
Appreciate the laugh!
2011 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic




East Pacific




Central Pacific




West Pacific


03W.AERE


Indian Ocean




Southern Hem.


Quoting aquak9:


probably wouldn't hurt to go wash the truck, too.

Good idea!

Water a section of the pasture, too, for good measure.
Aere is struggling


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/0832 UTC 27.3N 128.4E TOO WEAK AERE
11/0232 UTC 25.6N 127.4E T1.5/1.5 AERE
10/2032 UTC 24.6N 124.8E T1.0/2.0 AERE
10/1432 UTC 22.9N 124.2E T1.5/2.5 AERE
10/0832 UTC 21.5N 123.0E T2.0/2.5 AERE
10/0232 UTC 20.3N 122.2E T2.5/2.5 AERE
09/2032 UTC 20.0N 121.6E T2.0/2.5 AERE
Quoting DestinJeff:


we can make it better, stronger, faster...

if we build it, will they come?
if we build it,they will come
Quoting aquak9:
don't forget Dupont!


And Monsanto!
Quoting Skyepony:
Aere is struggling


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/0832 UTC 27.3N 128.4E TOO WEAK AERE
11/0232 UTC 25.6N 127.4E T1.5/1.5 AERE
10/2032 UTC 24.6N 124.8E T1.0/2.0 AERE
10/1432 UTC 22.9N 124.2E T1.5/2.5 AERE
10/0832 UTC 21.5N 123.0E T2.0/2.5 AERE
10/0232 UTC 20.3N 122.2E T2.5/2.5 AERE
09/2032 UTC 20.0N 121.6E T2.0/2.5 AERE


WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W
/WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, AERE, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED AT KADENA AIR BASE
DURING PASSAGE WAS 37 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS
BASED ON WIND AND PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NORTHERN RYUKU REPORTING
STATIONS, PARTICULARLY RJKA. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
UNREPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE DIMINISHED CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM
CORE. AN 110509Z AMSRE IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT 03W REMAINED ORGANIZED IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE TRACKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF OKINAWA, AND
AN 111137Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS LITTLE REDUCTION IN ORGANIZATION. TC 03W
IS STEERING OVER THE TOP OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERING THE
INITIAL STAGE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE CLOUD SHIELD
STRETCHING. THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ARE
EVIDENT IN BOTH INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE STORM ARE SHOWING THE FIRST INDICATIONS OF COUPLING
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW
THAT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL ENSCONCED WITHIN THE TROPICAL AIR.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PUSHING SLOWLY EQUATORWARD AND NOW EXTENDS
OVER KYUSHU, SHIKOKU, AND EASTERN HONSHU. TC 03W IS TRACKING OVER
UNFAVORABLY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT APPROACHES THE BOUNDARY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TC 03W WILL WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A
LOW-GALE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW EAST OF HONSHU. AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL
BALANCE THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR FOR A SHORT TIME. IN
THE BOUNDARY LEVELS, THE INCREASED THERMAL GRADIENT AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE XTT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND 03W AND THE RELATIVELY
PARALLEL MOVEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TRANSITIONING 03W INTO A LOW-GALE FORCE
MID-LATITUDE LOW AS IT TRACKS SEAWARD OF THE KANTO PLAIN. DUE TO THE
GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND THE PREDICTABLE BEHAVIOR OF
03W THUS FAR, THE JT FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.
//
NNNN

Quoting jeffs713:

Good idea!

Water a section of the pasture, too, for good measure.


plan an outdoor wedding!
Levi~ It's a pretty interesting feature, like you mentioned, good eastlies. CMC really played it up til 00Z run. The most recent isn't real aggressive with it. Latest gfs destroys it quick.

That low dropped 3 1/2-4inch hail in SC lastnight, tenacious but the conditions aren't real favorable.
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ It's a pretty interesting feature, like you mentioned, good eastlies. CMC really played it up til 00Z run. The most recent isn't real aggressive with it. Latest gfs destroys it quick.

That low dropped 3 1/2-4inch hail in SC lastnight, tenacious but the conditions aren't real favorable.


Yeah. Like I said, were it later in the year, I might be concerned. MCS/MCC's are always fun to watch.
If the upper low over the Pacific were to move east over Mexico, Texas would have a fair chance at a significant rain event.
Guess its time to start paying attention again, thatMesoscale Convective Complex that blew thru here last night was a doozy! looks like its keeping its spin offshore too!

Howdy all, Im back for the season. Let the games begin :)
Quoting MyrtleCanes:
Guess its time to start paying attention again, thatMesoscale Convective Complex that blew thru here last night was a doozy! looks like its keeping its spin offshore too!

Howdy all, Im back for the season. Let the games begin :)


What, no one told you!? Season's a bust... =)
556. 7544
hi everyone if this feature east of ga/fla. does become 92l where will head tia looks like its starting to spin now
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah. Like I said, were it later in the year, I might be concerned. MCS/MCC's are always fun to watch.


You may not be too concerned, but that blob is right off my coast. LOL Over the years, those things can cause a lot of flooding in no time. What state are you in?
Quoting aquak9:
probably wouldn't hurt to go wash the truck, too.
Quoting jeffs713:
Water a section of the pasture, too, for good measure.
Quoting aquak9:
plan an outdoor wedding!

Excellent ideas! And, as luck would have it, I am engaged. I'm pretty sure I could convince the fiancé, but I'm not so sure about the guests.
Quoting WoodyFL:


You may not be too concerned, but that blob is right off my coast. LOL Over the years, those things can cause a lot of flooding in no time. What state are you in?

LMAO he is in Alaska but he knows what he is talking about.
That blob may skim the Bahamas as it heads SE. It's a little west of the models..I dare hope it comes to FL but don't give it much chance. Ultimately it should move counter clockwise around the two Lows north of it that are dancing around each other. The one on the SE side should absorb the one closer to CONUS than this blob should dance in closer to be absorbed as well. CMC's version..
97.9F here..
"A magnitude 5.3 earthquake has toppled several buildings in southern Spain, near the town of Lorca, killing at least four people, officials say.

The quake struck at a depth of just 1km (0.6 miles), some 120km south-west of Alicante, at 1850 (1650 GMT), the US Geological Survey reported.

TV shots showed rescue workers rushing through debris-littered streets.

Lorca Mayor Francisco Jodar told local radio the four deaths were caused by falling debris and cave-ins."

--

Magnitude
5.3
Date-Time
Wednesday, May 11, 2011 at 16:47:26 UTC
Wednesday, May 11, 2011 at 06:47:26 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
37.697N, 1.556W
Depth
1 km (~0.6 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region
SPAIN
Distances
50 km (31 miles) SW of Murcia, Spain
118 km (73 miles) SW of Alicante, Spain
124 km (77 miles) NE of Almeria, Spain
352 km (218 miles) SSE of MADRID, Spain
Quoting Cotillion:
"A magnitude 5.3 earthquake has toppled several buildings in southern Spain, near the town of Lorca, killing at least four people, officials say.

The quake struck at a depth of just 1km (0.6 miles), some 120km south-west of Alicante, at 1850 (1650 GMT), the US Geological Survey reported.

TV shots showed rescue workers rushing through debris-littered streets.

Lorca Mayor Francisco Jodar told local radio the four deaths were caused by falling debris and cave-ins."



Only 0.6 miles in depth!!!!! Thats gotta be the shallowest quake I've ever heard of.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

LMAO he is in Alaska but he knows what he is talking about.
Yes . He is very knowledgeable about tropical weather. He was born and raised in Alaska..He reminds me of someone from Florida studying polar weather systems and the huge of the northern and southern oceans..:)
565. xcool
Very interesting system off the coast of Florida. Wondering if the NHC will issue Special Tropical Weather Outlooks on it come tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the East. Pac. is starting to fire some storms. They look like low pressure systems. Are these embedded in the ITCZ?

569. txjac
Hi All,

Rain, rain ...please come my way

Hope all are well
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN
76W-80W. THIS AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.


Too bad that complex of rain and t-storms is going to miss Florida as we need the rain.
All of these storms in TX are moving the wrong way! Go Southeast! Go Southeast!
573. txjac
Quoting muddertracker:
All of these storms in TX are moving the wrong way! Go Southeast! Go Southeast!



I'm with you muddracker ...we need it bad! Crispy here in Houston
The NOGAPS model does not look reassuring for flood victims...The CMC and GFS dont look good either..Maybe some help for Texas..Link
Quoting hydrus:
The NOGAPS model does not look reassuring for flood victims...The CMC and GFS dont look good either..Maybe some help for Texas..Link


If that comes to fruition, short term its bad, but near the end of the run, the block in the Atlantic breaks down, allowing high pressure to settle in over the lower MS valley, and the mean storm path to start going over TX.
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe, maybe not. The SSD will sometimes put an invest floater up "unofficially" just because they feel like it's interesting, even if the navy hasn't declared an official invest.


A brief window of opportunity for development tonight and tomorrow before it turns eastward at the base of the large mid-lat trof...and gets sheared. right now, the system is moving se at 30 kt beneath 45-50 kt 200 mb winds, so the effective shear on the system is only 15-20 kt. And it has some acyc outflow in the ne semicircle...and is moving toward warmer SSTs.
XX/AOI/XL

2011 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic




East Pacific




Central Pacific




West Pacific


95W.INVEST
03W.AERE


Indian Ocean




Southern Hem.


585. txjac
That rain just needs to come further south! Happy to see its hitting a bit north though as that is where many fires are happening
425. Skyepony 9:02 AM CDT on May 11, 2011
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
http://www.katc.com/news/grand-gulf-checks-leak-o f- tritium-to-miss-river/

The above article is about a recent leak of nuclear material into the Ms river by a power plant around Vicksburg, Ms.


There has been so little put out there about this. Still trying to find the source? When first reported on it was eluded that the source was fixed.. They didn't know how much had been released but hey, no threat to humans..


Sorry, I do not have anymore info on this...it has been swept under the rug as far as I can tell...doubt they wanted this much info about it to get out...may happen all the time as far as I know...not good though...
588. txjac
In response to 587

I did see a blog post about the rising Mississippi and the NP plants

I'm from Vicksburg and this could get really bad for 61 South and 61 North. Several of the Power Plants/Welding yards/Rubber Plants are on the river side of 61. As of now they are having to boat people into the Welding Yards ( Letourneau). Letourneau had to let go of 200 people already.

There is a backup power plant that provides relief to the South East during High Power Loads (mainly during the summer and winter) which is going to flood and Grand Gulf Nuclear Power plant is on the river. Its going to flood too.

Source:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1 481737/pg1
589. Jax82
Here's todays MODIS Aqua true color image.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MERRICK COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN NANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SILVER CREEK...OR 17 MILES WEST OF
COLUMBUS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GENOA.
Just came from the Levee here in NOLA @ Audubon Bend and itsa very,very High River.

No River traffic Observed save for a CG River Patrol..very fast current with lotsa large trees and stumps moving along as well.


In this Image from yesterday one can see the Rivers Spillway Plume entering the Sw Lake from the Bonnet Carre Spillway.

Quoting hurricane23:


A brief window of opportunity for development tonight and tomorrow before it turns eastward at the base of the large mid-lat trof...and gets sheared. right now, the system is moving se at 30 kt beneath 45-50 kt 200 mb winds, so the effective shear on the system is only 15-20 kt. And it has some acyc outflow in the ne semicircle...and is moving toward warmer SSTs.


So are we looking at a potential Arlene or what?
Pat, any word about Morganza from the local media there?
Word last Hour is Morganza to be opened between Saturday and Monday.

Thats allowing folks in the Basin to get their camps secured and for other preps.

Never in all my Days have I seen the Big Muddy so High. Im 5 Blocks from the River here Uptown and by my Estimates ..its 15 ft above my Street Grade now.
Local CBS Station here www.wwltv.com
Quoting Patrap:
Word last Hour is Morganza to be opened between Saturday and Monday.

Thats allowing folks in the Basin to get their camps secured and for other preps.

Never in all my Days have I seen the Big Muddy so High. Im 5 Blocks from the River here Uptown and by my Estimates ..its 15 ft above my Street Grade now.
so be the power of water
increase water vapour levels cause this ya know that right
all these things are but the changes we are going to see and become the norm
Quoting hurricaneben:


So are we looking at a potential Arlene or what?


Unlikely.
Quoting Patrap:
Word last Hour is Morganza to be opened between Saturday and Monday.

Thats allowing folks in the Basin to get their camps secured and for other preps.

Never in all my Days have I seen the Big Muddy so High. Im 5 Blocks from the River here Uptown and by my Estimates ..its 15 ft above my Street Grade now.


I hope you are keeping a close eye on it which I am sure you are. That would scare the hell out of me with that much force over your street height like that
Could be a severe wx warning with this cell popping west of Melbourne. Watchout for some small hail if you are in west melbourne.
Quoting Levi32:


Unlikely.
yep out running itself should be nothing more but an AOI
so from whats on water vapor, there's some EPAC features, nothing concerning, but the moisture is getting cranked up.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Could be a severe wx warning with this cell popping west of Melbourne. Watchout for some small hail if you are in west melbourne.


I had to go out & look at it. Was thundering pretty good for a minute. Hello sea breeze..
so why has the NHC marked another invest.
Why to aggravate uninformed wunderbloggers of course..LoL
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
411 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
NORTH CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT
Atlantic

* No Currently Active Cyclones



NRL Navy Page

Nor here RAMMB
Quoting Skyepony:


I had to go out & look at it. Was thundering pretty good for a minute. Hello sea breeze..


Sky is turning dark here north of orlando although nothing on the radar yet it looks as if storms are about to pop here any minute.
So just area of Interest? guess so, the NHC satellite page marks the area as an "invest" not specifically, just invest.
2011 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic




East Pacific




Central Pacific




West Pacific


95W.INVEST
03W.AERE


Indian Ocean




Southern Hem.


Very strong individual thunderstorm cells beginning to form and rapidly intensify near and just outside of the local lake breeze off Lake Michigan. These will likely produce hail in excess of a quarter. Also, high winds have also been reported near Wonder Lake, a far NW suburb of Chicago. Some of these could become severe, as the individual cell up in northern central lake county near Fox Lake, IL has a history of high winds.

Very impressive lake breeze though. Unreal temperature differentials. A few hours ago, just 60 degrees on the lake front in Waukegan. But just 15 miles inland, temperatures flirting with the 90 degree mark. Chicago's Ohare Airport I believed hit 90 degrees yet again today, where they broke a 115 year record yesterday with 90 degrees. Juicy dewpoints as well in the upper 60's for them. As the lake breeze pushes eastward, it'll interact with the developing springtime storms.

Lake Michigan water temperatures are still in the mid to upper 40's near the southern end of the lake including the Chicago / Gary, Indiana region.

Very easy to spot the lake breeze that's developed on the NWS Radar.

O-Town tied the record high today of 96 degrees set back in 1916
Daytona BCH 95 tied from 2009
Melbourne 96 Previous record 95 in 2008
Thundering here now in Longwood. Storm is building just north of me and building fast. High hit 99 here and this is the result.
be back later...
Quoting emcf30:
O-Town tied the record high today of 96 degrees set back in 1916
Daytona BCH 95 tied from 2009
Melbourne 96 Previous record 95 in 2008


Yeah and thunderstorms are building quick now. It looks as if we have finally broke the cap.
Smoke and ash from the honey prairie wildfire will spread
southeast through the remainder of the afternoon...

Plumes of smoke from the honey prairie wildfire will drift southeast
this afternoon... impacting areas mainly over southern Charlton...
western Nassau and Duval counties... then south along the St Johns
River basin through Clay... St Johns... Putnam and Flagler counties.
Visibilities near the fire may be reduced to less than one half mile
at times. Smoke will be moving across Interstate 10 in western Duval
and eastern Baker counties and along the U.S. Highway 301 and
Highway 17 corridors south of Jacksonville will be affected by low
visibility at times. Across the remainder of the area... visibilities
may drop to between 2 and 5 miles at times.

Ash will fall from the smoke plume may become heavy at times. Persons
who have respiratory aliments that can be triggered by smoke should
consider staying indoors. Motorists should be alert for sudden
changes in visibility in smoke.
So....just to try to get something started here....When does everyone think "Arlene" will form?

My choice: Sometime at the end of May/early June when the MJO comes around in full force.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So....just to try to get something started here....When does everyone think "Arlene" will form?

My choice: Sometime at the end of May/early June when the MJO comes around in full force.

About right
Quoting Jax82:
Here's todays MODIS Aqua true color image.

That is a cool image.
49 storm chasers tracking live on TV net. in the Kansas area. If I lived there I think I would just go ahead and put the family in the basement.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Yeah and thunderstorms are building quick now. It looks as if we have finally broke the cap.


No storms here. Sea breeze blew through in full force and dropped temps from the mid 90's to 79.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So....just to try to get something started here....When does everyone think "Arlene" will form?

My choice: Sometime at the end of May/early June when the MJO comes around in full force.


Not sure. Positive MJO is going to be here in about a day or so, if it already isn't. I agree with late May or early June.


Flash Flood Warnings now issued.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ILC031-089-097-111-120200-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FF.W.0001.110511T2202Z-110512T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANE
COUNTY...THROUGH EASTERN MCHENRY AND FAR NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So....just to try to get something started here....When does everyone think "Arlene" will form?

My choice: Sometime at the end of May/early June when the MJO comes around in full force.


That's funny, I'm listening to "Let's Get it Started" right now.

Good luck to all of those in the Mississippi's way on the way to the ocean.

I'm feeling like it's gonna take a little longer for the jet dtream to move north. I think mid-June before we see Arlene, but once the Jet moves North, I think the ocean will be plenty warm, so if the shear cooperates, it could get active early.

So my not so educated guess is June 15th, but I think we could see two storms by the 4th of July.
.
150 LENOX TAYLOR IA 4088 9456 MULTIPLE TORNADOES IN AND AROUND LENOX. TORNADO DAMAGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF LENOX. HOMES AND TRAILERS DAMAGED AND POWER LINES DOWN. (
Anymore rain in this area and the Fox River will easily be nearing flood stage if not already there now.



Flash Flood Warnings now issued.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ILC031-089-097-111-120200-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FF.W.0001.110511T2202Z-110512T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANE
COUNTY...THROUGH EASTERN MCHENRY AND FAR NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA.
quiet on here
Geeez...Thats a lot of rain coming toward the Ms River..

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
quiet on here

Calm before yet another ''Storm,''
Quoting PlazaRed:

Calm before yet another ''Storm,''


Hey Plaza...missed ya ! Quake close to you?
That's not needed in the watershed at all...and the severe punch neither.

Look carefully at the two Large systems and their common Latitude.



WoooooHoooo.......raining on the NE side of Houston in the Kingwood/Humble area(close to the big airport). Light to moderate at times. Has been for the past hour or so. This keeps up much longer I'll be able to go outside and hear the grass growing!
Hopefully all that rain will go north of the pulse of flood waters. Perhaps it will make the water recede more slowly, but hopefully it won't increase the peak heights.

I just checked Vicksburg forecast, with a 50% chance of storms on Friday, but no more than 20% tomorrow. Well, the forecast is supposed to include 24 hours of rain, so hopefully they've taken this into account and there won't be too many surprises.

Best to be prepared though. GL all.
This sickening to us in coastal TX

More rain...
Quoting HouGalv08:
WoooooHoooo.......raining on the NE side of Houston in the Kingwood/Humble area(close to the big airport). Light to moderate at times. Has been for the past hour or so. This keeps up much longer I'll be able to go outside and hear the grass growing!
/em>


That is so great to hear !!.....wish it could move back and forth over Texas and other parched areas....for a while, anyway
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hey Plaza...missed ya ! Quake close to you?


Quake's!! would have been about 250 miles north east of me but I am in the drought stricken north of England at the moment, so I only got to see the quakes on the Spanish Internet TV.
They say about 10 people got killed but its not surprising to see the unfortunate rise in casualties with the state of some of those old buildings up in the Murcia region.
Looks like you are stuck between the storm devil and the deep blue sea again?
OMG look at the inflow showers developing right over Houston, could this be a sign of a blow up of storms in SE TX tonight?

Both the GFS and the CMC are now attempting to create something weak out of the event late next week where the SACZ will be lifting north in response to both the trough over the SE US and the MJO propagating eastward.

The panels for both models on Day 8:



Quoting PlazaRed:


Quake's!! would have been about 250 miles north east of me but I am in the drought stricken north of England at the moment, so I only got to see the quakes on the Spanish Internet TV.
They say about 10 people got killed but its not surprising to see the unfortunate rise in casualties with the state of some of those old buildings up in the Murcia region.
Looks like you are stuck between the storm devil and the deep blue sea again?


Glad your safe :)...Yep....Storms have been a coming and the rivers are a rising .....
Quoting RitaEvac:
OMG look at the inflow showers developing right over Houston, could this be a sign of a blow up of storms in SE TX tonight?

The WRF precip model has a big area of convection for Texas tomorrow..And some severe weather is likely..Link
Quoting RitaEvac:
OMG look at the inflow showers developing right over Houston, could this be a sign of a blow up of storms in SE TX tonight?



Looks kinda promising to me....but scared to say, might run it off......I'm sure no expert, but I do stare at these systems a lot....
I hope you don't get too much more rain all at once this time, all that big catchment area is going to take some draining and with all that snow to melt out as well, I wouldn't be surprised to see you break a lot of records and its a while to go before the summer yet.
I saw some time ago that the bed of the Mississippi river in some places is higher then the surrounding land, that could be catastrophic if you got a breach of the levies, sure hope those engineers time things right for you.

Here in the north of England they had the driest spring on record in some places with almost no rainfall, bush and dried out peat bog fires were raging last week all over the place,bit of rain over last few days but just a dampening.
Trying to balance on a razor's edge... We need rain in Texas, and west side of Louisiana, but too far North and East will be bad.

Need Mother Nature to roll snake eyes...
Early snow falls as cold snap hits NSW



The cold snap that has hit New South Wales has brought the first snowfalls of the year to the state's central tablelands.

Snow and ice on the Great Western Highway between Lithgow and Bathurst saw police close the road at Mt Lambi and Yetholme from several hours.

The state's Roads and Traffic Authority is also urging motorists to drive with caution on the Mitchell Highway between Orange and Bathurst.

A resident from Running Stream near Mudgee, Neeva Lilley, says it is early in the year to have a blanket of white surrounding her property.

"The paddocks are all white as far as I can see and it's cloudy and it's very cold and there's about three inches of snow on the ground," Ms Lilley said.

"As a rule it's later than this so I hope it's not a foretaste of a very cold winter."

Don Mahoney, from Forest Reefs near Orange, says there is about 5 centimetres of snow on the ground at his place.

"It's now settled in a very pretty manner because the leaves of the bushes are beautifully covered in snow," Mr Mahoney said.

The Bureau of Meteorolgy says Sydney also shivered through its coldest May morning since 2007.

The temperature dipped to 7.8 degrees this morning and fell to 2.2 degrees in the city's west at Richmond.

Senior forecaster Peter Zmijewski says it is cold but not that unusual.

"It doesn't happen very often but this time of the year, this is when certainly nights are cold. After all we are getting towards winter," Mr Zmijewski said.

"Over the next few days we do expect rather cold nights until probably mid week, so we're looking at the temperture in the single digits in the city and in the western suburbs."

Further south, the bureau is forecasting more snow and showers today and tomorrow over the alps.

Ski operators are anticipating a return to normal winter conditions after a string of erratic seasons.

- ABC
Quoting RitaEvac:
This sickening to us in coastal TX


I'm envious but not sickened.

Edit: Even a little hopeful for tomorrow, but not overly I think.
Quoting bappit:

I'm envious but not sickened.
Rain for Texas manana, but severe weather too...Excerpt from SPC.....CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF CENTRAL CONUS FROM CORN
BELT TO S TX...AND SHOULD BECOME RATHER CONCENTRATED IN SOME AREAS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...RISK REMAINS RATHER BROAD-BRUSHED ATTM GIVEN PRESENCE OF
SEVERAL CRUCIAL UNCERTAINTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...AS WELL AS
ALONG BOUNDARIES IN WARM SECTOR THAT WILL BE INFLUENCED STRONGLY BY
ANTECEDENT CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS
IA/MO/AR AND PORTIONS ERN/SRN TX. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD
INTO DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WITH FAVORABLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAKENING MLCINH AND INCREASING MLCAPE...AMIDST
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SVR. OUTFLOW AND/OR
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES LEFT BY EARLY ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
SERVE AS MESOBETA SCALE FOCI FOR SUBSEQUENT/AFTERNOON INITIATION
FARTHER W NEAR DRYLINE...FROM ERN KS TO N-CENTRAL/NE TX...DEPENDING
ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF AFTERNOON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION E OF EARLIER CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME.
AussieStorm - That snow man looks a little beat up...:0...Good Morning....
Okay, all I want to know is. Will I be able to drive from Houston to Florida on June 2nd? I don't want you to think I'm crazy, but I'm hearing that it would be better to fly during that time in case the flooding is so severe that it would make it impassable.
Any of your advice would be very much appreciated!
Thanks!
Austin, TX had a severe thunderstorm warning. The thunderstorm literally vaporized just before it hit the city.

Is there any cure for an inversion cap?

Quoting SubtropicalHi:
Austin, TX had a severe thunderstorm warning. The thunderstorm literally vaporized just before it hit the city.

Is there any cure for an inversion cap?

An isohyet.... Pronouned ice-a-hat..get it.?..:)
Quoting Levi32:
Both the GFS and the CMC are now attempting to create something weak out of the event late next week where the SACZ will be lifting north in response to both the trough over the SE US and the MJO propagating eastward.

The panels for both models on Day 8:



hmmm interesting
Quoting JennInGOM:
Okay, all I want to know is. Will I be able to drive from Houston to Florida on June 2nd? I don't want you to think I'm crazy, but I'm hearing that it would be better to fly during that time in case the flooding is so severe that it would make it impassable.
Any of your advice would be very much appreciated!
Thanks!


It'll be a mess, unless you're gonna try to take I-40, get to atlanta, then head south. There's gonna be tons of water, and many displaced people- it's not just the drive but the recovery action as well(if any recovery has started by then)

Given the choice? FLY, baby.
Severe Weather Alerts

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Madison County in AR until 8:45pm CDT. #arwx less than a minute ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Decatur County in KS until 8:45pm CDT. #kswx 4 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Johnson and Newton County in AR until 9:00pm CDT. #arwx 6 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cherokee County in SC until 10:00pm EDT. #scwx 9 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cleveland and Rutherford County in NC until 10:00pm EDT. #ncwx 9 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Gillespie and Llano County in TX until 8:45pm CDT. #txwx 12 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lake County in IN until 8:30pm CDT. #inwx 14 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cook County in IL until 8:30pm CDT. #ilwx 14 minutes ago
Feel the wiki. Be the wiki.

Contour Line

An isohyet or isohyetal line (from ύετος or huetos, meaning 'rain') is a line joining points of equal precipitation on a map. A map with isohyets is called an isohyetal map.

An isohume is a line of constant relative humidity, while a isodrosotherm (from δροσος or drosos, meaning 'dew', and θερμη or therme, meaning 'heat') is a line of equal or constant dew point.

An isoneph is a line indicating equal cloud cover.

An isochalaz is a line of constant frequency of hail storms, and an isobront is a line drawn through geographical points at which a given phase of thunderstorm activity occurred simultaneously.
Quoting JennInGOM:
Okay, all I want to know is. Will I be able to drive from Houston to Florida on June 2nd? I don't want you to think I'm crazy, but I'm hearing that it would be better to fly during that time in case the flooding is so severe that it would make it impassable.
Any of your advice would be very much appreciated!
Thanks!


Drive it. Should be no issues with the Morganza open.
We need rain BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'd stay out of Morgan City though.
Quoting aquak9:


It'll be a mess, unless you're gonna try to take I-40, get to atlanta, then head south. There's gonna be tons of water, and many displaced people- it's not just the drive but the recovery action as well(if any recovery has started by then)

Given the choice? FLY, baby.


perhaps she could take I-10 to New Orleans and cross the Mississippi there where it won't be too high? i'm sure there's a highway that goes through southern louisiana that she could take.
Quoting aquak9:


It'll be a mess, unless you're gonna try to take I-40, get to atlanta, then head south. There's gonna be tons of water, and many displaced people- it's not just the drive but the recovery action as well(if any recovery has started by then)

Given the choice? FLY, baby.


Not sure I agree. First, where in Florida? Makes a big difference. And it really shouldn't take too long to get through the affected area. Unless I10 get washed out, which I seriously doubt, I don't think there will be a problem, especially since June is still over a month away.
That being said, don't forget, once you hit Pensacola, you still have a long drive to Jax, Orlando, Miami... (people hit the state line and think they are almost there, WRONG, it's 7 hours to Disney) Can't go as the crow flies.
Quoting bappit:
Feel the wiki. Be the wiki.

Contour Line

An isohyet or isohyetal line (from %u03CD%u03B5%u03C4%u03BF%u03C2 or huetos, meaning 'rain') is a line joining points of equal precipitation on a map. A map with isohyets is called an isohyetal map.

An isohume is a line of constant relative humidity, while a isodrosotherm (from %u03B4%u03C1%u03BF%u03C3%u03BF%u03C2 or drosos, meaning 'dew', and %u03B8%u03B5%u03C1%u03BC%u03B7 or therme, meaning 'heat') is a line of equal or constant dew point.

An isoneph is a line indicating equal cloud cover.

An isochalaz is a line of constant frequency of hail storms, and an isobront is a line drawn through geographical points at which a given phase of thunderstorm activity occurred simultaneously.
Then an isobar is a line drawn through people that have drank equal amounts of beer at da bar, right.?...:)
Yep. People were saying the other day that driving across Texas seems endless, but a trip to Miami may be longer.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Not sure I agree. First, where in Florida? Makes a big difference. And it really shouldn't take too long to get through the area. Unless I10 get washed out, which I seriously doubt, I don't think there will be a problem, especially since June is still over a month away.
That being said, don't forget, once you hit Pensacola, you still have a long drive to Jax, Orlando, Miami... (people hit the state line and think they are almost there, WRONG, it's 7 hours to Disney) Can't go as the crow flies.


I am going to Disney World and leaving June 2nd.
680. BDAwx
Quoting Gearsts:


Hmm...
Quoting JennInGOM:
Okay, all I want to know is. Will I be able to drive from Houston to Florida on June 2nd? I don't want you to think I'm crazy, but I'm hearing that it would be better to fly during that time in case the flooding is so severe that it would make it impassable.
Any of your advice would be very much appreciated!
Thanks!

No need to go to New Orleans because you have to cross the Miss. river at Baton Ruge stay on I-12 untill it comes back to I-10 .
Mississippi Flooding Captured by NASA Satellites

ScienceDaily (May 11, 2011) — The Mississippi River reached nearly 48 feet in Memphis, Tenn., on May 10, according to the U.S. National Weather Service. It was the highest water level for Memphis since 1937.


Top: Mississippi floodwaters inundate Memphis, Tenn., on May 10 as seen by the Landsat 5 satellite (left image). The right image shows the same view from April 21, 2010. Bottom: Flooding in Arkansas as seen on May 10 by NASA's Aqua satellite (left image). The right image shows the same view from April 29, 2011. (Credit: Top: NASA Earth Observatory/United States Geological Survey; Bottom: NASA Goddard/MODIS Rapid Response Team)

Link
that's a long drive, hun. Still, you're gonna hafta stop to sleep overnight, motel pickin's are gonna be slim.

Guess I'm not thinking so much about the actual DRIVE, more everything else that goes along with a long drive. Insurance adjusters will have all the hotels and motels, there'll be heavy equipment everywhere...heck I'm lazy, I'd fly.
Quoting bappit:
Yep. People were saying the other day that driving across Texas seems endless, but a trip to Miami may be longer.


New Mexico to Louisiana on, I10, is a little farther than Alabama border to Key West.
Hope no one got their hopes up..


Realistically I'd start watching out for Arlene by May 25th or so if you want to see pre-season development. Though as we learned last year a season doesn't have to start off early to be active.
Quoting aquak9:
that's a long drive, hun. Still, you're gonna hafta stop to sleep overnight, motel pickin's are gonna be slim.

Guess I'm not thinking so much about the actual DRIVE, more everything else that goes along with a long drive. Insurance adjusters will have all the hotels and motels, there'll be heavy equipment everywhere...heck I'm lazy, I'd fly.


It is a long drive, 15+ hours? Pensacola about half way. I'm with you on the flight part for that distance though. But like you, I'm lazy too. And once you clear Louisiana, the drive is BORING until you get turned south and below Gainesville. (can you say pine trees?)
There is that cost difference thingy though. And hotels wouldn't be a problem anywhere from probably MS eastward, maybe AL.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hope no one got their hopes up..


Realistically I'd start watching out for Arlene by May 25th or so if you want to see pre-season development. Though as we learned last year a season doesn't have to start off early to be active.
That one vanished quick..To bad Katrina didnt do that.
No wonder it's seemed so wet this month... because it has been wet! (Michigan)

Also, interesting to see the juxtaposition between Texas and Arkansas.
Drive from Cali to Beaumont, TX as I did when my mom was on her way out and El Paso is half way. It's 12 hours to Texas and 12 hours across. I think it's a little over 12 more to the Florida panhandle, but that's just a ballpark.

We did drive across Louisiana to New Orleans on a different trip. I ate at Emerils and took the kids to the New Orleans Children's Museum. I hope they survived 'K'.

I think you should be fine Jenn, just pick your route carefully, stay on major highways, and try to plan your trip so you won't stay anywhere near the Mississippi. I'd try to get a room either in Mobile or the Florida Panhandle somewhere. That seems like a good halfway point.

I understand flying may not always be an option.
Heck, with three boys, plane tickets have been what's made us stick with stay-cations lately.
Quoting hurristat:
No wonder it's seemed so wet this month... because it has been wet! (Michigan)

Also, interesting to see the juxtaposition between Texas and Arkansas.
Wuzup stat. Its been a 100,000 years or so since I saw you post on da WU blog. Hope you are doing good.
Anyone in the Tampa FL area feeling not 100% up to standard the last few days? I've had a dreadful cough & fever the last two days, wondering if its allergies going around.
692. DDR
Just over an 1 inch of precip at my location today.
Trinidad & Tobago weather forecast
Tonight:
Partly cloudy at times with the chance of the
isolated shower.

Tomorrow:
Variably cloudy with isolated showers and the
chance of the isolated thundershower.



Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone in the Tampa FL area feeling not 100% up to standard the last few days? I've had a dreadful cough & fever the last two days.
You might have abbazoody.
Quoting DDR:
Just over an 1 inch of precip at my location today.
Trinidad & Tobago weather forecast
Tonight:
Partly cloudy at times with the chance of the
isolated shower.

Tomorrow:
Variably cloudy with isolated showers and the
chance of the isolated thundershower.



No shortage of rain for your region...Gettin to much here.
>An isohyet.... Pronouned ice-a-hat..get it.?..:<

I think the South Texas portion of this blog just made a dash to their local Ice House =)
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
>An isohyet.... Pronouned ice-a-hat..get it.?..:<

I think the South Texas portion of this blog just made a dash to their local Ice House =)
I have been there . Its a cool place..:)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hope no one got their hopes up..


Realistically I'd start watching out for Arlene by May 25th or so if you want to see pre-season development. Though as we learned last year a season doesn't have to start off early to be active.


Save this quote and begin repeating at least once daily from now till say, August or so?

Late May seems reasonable to me as well, at least. As a previous poster earlier said, mid-June wouldn't be too shocking at all. Sub jet seems happy as it is, and no change appears imminent.

Of course the S.W. Caribbean could be the exception, as usual with early dev. Shear values have been fluctuating from conducive/fairly conducive 10-20 kts to somewhat and very hostile 30 kts+ the last week or so. Currently high again, but tomorrows another day...

Quoting iahishome:
Drive from Cali to Beaumont, TX as I did when my mom was on her way out and El Paso is half way. It's 12 hours to Texas and 12 hours across. I think it's a little over 12 more to the Florida panhandle, but that's just a ballpark.

We did drive across Louisiana to New Orleans on a different trip. I ate at Emerils and took the kids to the New Orleans Children's Museum. I hope they survived 'K'.

I think you should be fine Jenn, just pick your route carefully, stay on major highways, and try to plan your trip so you won't stay anywhere near the Mississippi. I'd try to get a room either in Mobile or the Florida Panhandle somewhere. That seems like a good halfway point.

I understand flying may not always be an option.
Heck, with three boys, plane tickets have been what's made us stick with stay-cations lately.


Only about 6 1/2 hours from Orange, TX to Pensacola.
699. DDR
Hydrus which state are you from?
Just curious.
jenn How many ppl are traveling with you or are you by your self. If traveling alone and u don't mind speeding a little can easily make it in one good day of driving say 13.5 hours
Quoting eddy12:
jenn How many ppl are traveling with you or are you by your self if traveling alone and u don't mind speeding a little can easily make it in one good day of driving say 13.5 hours


Just don't stop to eat or pee. ;>)
get gas eat go bathroom same place if you set cruise at 78 should be no problem
Quoting DDR:
Hydrus which state are you from?
Just curious.
I was born and raised in South Florida. I am on the Cumberland Plateau in Middle Tennessee for now though.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Just don't stop to eat or pee. ;>)
Bring the cooler and a milk jug...ha ha
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup stat. Its been a 100,000 years or so since I saw you post on da WU blog. Hope you are doing good.


I'm doing pretty well for myself -- I only post during hurricane season and the surrounding months as the AGW debates get annoying.

Last time I posted was.... after Tomas.
Quoting eddy12:
get gas eat go bathroom same place if you set cruise at 78 should be no problem


That's an oddly specific number.
Quoting hurristat:


I'm doing pretty well for myself -- I only post during hurricane season and the surrounding months as the AGW debates get annoying.

Last time I posted was.... after Tomas.
I knew it had been a while...Those AGW debates can get childish at times. Any predictions for this years hurricane season yet.?
used to be set faster but with states wanting revenue 78 is safe i know i have 28 speeding tickets over the years in many states
I know of a certain female astronaut who used diapers when she was in a hurry to get to Florida. It could be a time saver :)
Quoting hydrus:
I knew it had been a while...Those AGW debates can get childish at times. Any predictions for this years hurricane season yet.?


Tbh I haven't looked at the data much yet, so I can't make a judgment call, but I'd probably say 14/7/3.
Quoting eddy12:
used to be set faster but with states wanting revenue 78 is safe i know i have 28 speeding tickets over the years in many states


holy cow that's a lot of speeding tickets.
LOL...ya'll so krazy.....but thats good ;]
yea my insurance company loves me haha
Complete Update






Quoting eddy12:
used to be set faster but with states wanting revenue 78 is safe i know i have 28 speeding tickets over the years in many states


lol. I don't know why but I find that funny. 23 years on the road here and zero violations.
Earth Networks’ WeatherBug Meteorology Team Forecasts Active 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season



Germantown, MD - May 11, 2011 – Earth Networks™, the owner of the WeatherBug® brand and operator of the largest weather observing and lightning network, releases its 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast today. The WeatherBug Meteorology team calls for an above-average season, which runs from June 1 to November 30 every year in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin that consists of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

The Earth Networks - WeatherBug Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2011 includes the following predictions:


•Overall Outlook: The Atlantic hurricane season will be above average, but less active than last year. A total of 13 to 14 named storms are expected to form in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. The long-term average is about 10 storms.

•Hurricanes: Seven to eight of these storms will become hurricanes, and four are predicted to become major hurricanes with possible winds in excess of 111 mph. The long-term average is about six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

•U.S. Landfall Threat: An above-average forecast does not necessarily mean there is a greater likelihood of a hurricane landfall in the U.S. Last year’s hurricane season was much above normal, but no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S.
By comparison, The Colorado State University tropical forecast team on April 6 predicted 16 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) hurricane forecast will be issued May 19.

Why the above-average outlook? Earth Networks Chief Meteorologist Mark Hoekzema explains, "While water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are warmer than average in key tropical cyclone development areas, they are not as warm as last year. La Niña conditions, which usually favor the formation of tropical storms, are forecasted to weaken throughout the summer. Neutral conditions are expected during the prime hurricane months from August through October. However, tropical systems can form at any time during the season."

Additional contributors to this above-average forecast include a recent historical pattern of 12 active hurricane seasons. Previous years with similar climate conditions have also been more active than average. Similarities of this year’s weather to years such as 2008 and 1996 also point toward an increased potential for a land-falling hurricane to impact the U.S. this year


Quoting hurristat:


Tbh I haven't looked at the data much yet, so I can't make a judgment call, but I'd probably say 14/7/3.
I am waiting until June 1 to put some numbers on the table...I have to go...good night to all..:)
This is RIDICULOUS! (I think i see a eye, on both! lol)
Quoting winter123:
This is RIDICULOUS! (I think i see a eye, on both! lol)


I'm looking at the image,too....did ya notice how the system in the Atlantic looks just like a gorilla....lol...know that sounds crazy..but really does....I'm kinda fascinated by these things...my avatar proves that~~~~
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I'm looking at the image,too....did ya notice how the system in the Atlantic looks just like a gorilla....lol...know that sounds crazy..but really does....I'm kinda fascinated by these things...my avatar proves that~~~~


OMG!
It does look like a Gorilla!
Quoting spathy:


OMG!
It does look like a Gorilla!


Hey there Spathy! I have saved this one for the collection.....just amazing isnt it....a gorilla for sure :)
12-20 named storms to me is the possible range. Most likely guess is 14-17 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes of which 4-6 become major. US impact should be significantly higher than last year and 2-4 hurricane landfalls are most likely (2008 had 3, 2005 had 6). So probably nothing like 2005 and a bit less total activity than last year yet still pretty darn active in both US and total activity. Florida might not get so lucky this year but I don't wanna get far on that. So let's just see how my prediction plays out.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hey there Spathy! I have saved this one for the collection.....just amazing isnt it....a gorilla for sure :)


I dont think I like the direction he is looking!
Just sayin!

This blog is amazing I was just about to say looks like giant Chimp attacking America.I'll post anyway.
Quoting spathy:


OMG!
It does look like a Gorilla!
its eddy here let me get the picture for ya it was my original avatar

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its eddy here let me get the picture for ya it was my original avatar



?
Wow, those cloud tops over michigan is really cold.
iron maiden eddie
Quoting eddy12:
iron maiden eddie



Ahhh...ok...if ya say so....lol...I'm out of that loop
The first avatar I remember of Keepers was the dude with the eyes and head that looked back and forth, evil looking dude
enough foolin around for this night later all tomorrow is a MOD risk day

good night wunderground

Quoting EYEStoSEA:
The first avatar I remember of Keepers was the dude with the eyes and head that looked back and forth, evil looking dude
ya that was oil slick man made that one when BP blew out preventer in gulf
Be back even stronger tomorrow....

keepers pic is from the album brave new world by iron maiden

Quoting hurristat:
Wow, those cloud tops over michigan is really cold.
Your grammars are really off. :P :P
Quoting hurricaneben:
12-20 named storms to me is the possible range. Most likely guess is 14-17 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes of which 4-6 become major.
I think the major range of 4-6 is a little high, but other than that I agree with these numbers.
This morning's AOI east of FL, a bit more squashed..


Quoting eddy12:
keepers pic is from the album brave new world by iron maiden


I saw Maiden a few weeks ago in Tampa, Final Frontier Tour... Where the Wild Winds Blow off that album reminds me of this blog.. Up The Irons!
skye I would never have guessed you take flight 666 how was the show
Quoting KoritheMan:

Your grammars are really off. :P :P


Yeah, it is. Usually it's impeccable.

(I changed it from something else, and forgot to check subject-verb agreement)
Quoting Skyepony:
This morning's AOI east of FL, a bit more squashed..




I saw Maiden a few weeks ago in Tampa, Final Frontier Tour... Where the Wild Winds Blow off that album reminds me of this blog.. Up The Irons!
Up The Irons
iam gone for sure night all
eddy~ It was really awesome. Been trying to see them since i was a kid. Still in awe of Bruce flying them all around in Ed Force One..


The tornado chasers really thinned out in the last few hours. Looks like the outlook for tomorrow is down to slight risk.

Quoting hurristat:


Yeah, it is. Usually it's impeccable.

(I changed it from something else, and forgot to check subject-verb agreement)
I knew I could tease you without retaliation. :P
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone in the Tampa FL area feeling not 100% up to standard the last few days? I've had a dreadful cough & fever the last two days, wondering if its allergies going around.
...down here in sarasota,been feeln the same way last week or so teddy...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone in the Tampa FL area feeling not 100% up to standard the last few days? I've had a dreadful cough & fever the last two days, wondering if its allergies going around.


yeah there's definitely some nasty stuff in the air quality right now. Ive been getting slammed by the allergies, as I usually do from plants. However it has been particularly bad due the poor air quality lately.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I knew I could tease you without retaliation. :P


You remember me well. XD
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Fukushima reactor no. 1 - fuel rods are (and likely have been) "fully exposed" - Bloomberg

Pretty amazing, huh? Workers have been superflooding--injecting water at high pressure--into the #1 reactor for weeks now, and the water levels still haven't risen enough to even reach the bottom of the fuel assembly. Which is to say, the rods are--and have been--fully exposed for two months now. Yet we're to take solace in the fact that, well, yes, the rods are melting, but there's water at the bottom of the pressure vessel, so the molten fuel cools off once it hits that boiling water.

On top of that, as noted yesterday, workers can only spend two or three minutes inside unit #1 before being ushered away for their own safety. It's going to be difficult for TEPCO to accomplish their stated goal of a sustained drop in radiation levels by July.

In short: unit #1 is still in meltdown, and it's been spewing high amounts of radiation for many weeks, with no end in sight. Flooding is helping, but minimally. But we need nuclear power; it's our only hope. :-\
Quoting:- 750. WatchingThisOne

So Here we are, or to put it a bit more accurately,''there they are,'' 2 months down the line and the same old new statement, IE. in a few months we will have it all under control, that is to say at least the bit of it we, {care to tell you about,} have admitted so far.

If nothing more happens from the natural disaster point of view then the situation might stabilize at a few notches above chaotic for the next decade.

The odds must be against them by now and there is every chance that more problems than solutions are on the cards for the summer.
753. IKE
5 day QPF....


CPC Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

Excerpt:

During Week-2, the convectively enhanced phase for the MJO is forecast to move across the Western Hemisphere. This should yield an enhanced threat for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern north Pacific, although chances are still quite low given that overall chances for formation of a tropical cyclone in this region, during May, are quite low. Enhanced rainfall is likely near the Gulf of Guinea and the islands of the south Pacific while the convectively suppressed area should shift northward into southern Asia and the Philippines. Drier than average conditions are expected to persist across portions of the Caribbean and Central America during Week-2.


755. IKE
A chance of rain here over the weekend....inland Florida panhandle....finally...

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after
1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest
between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Excerpt from the Bloomberg Article:

Tokyo Electric Power Co. said fuel rods are fully exposed in the No. 1 reactor at its stricken Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, setting back the utility’s plan to resolve the crisis.

The water level is 1 meter (3.3 feet) below the base of the fuel assembly, Junichi Matsumoto, a general manager at the utility known as Tepco, told reporters at a briefing in Tokyo. Melted fuel has dropped to the bottom of the pressure vessel and is still being cooled, Matsumoto said. The company doesn’t know how long the rods have been exposed, he said.

...There’s no danger of another hydrogen blast, Matsumoto said at the briefing.

I heard on NPR yesterday that Japanese plans to construct 14 more reactors have been scrapped.
757. IKE

758. IKE

759. Jax82
Here's a cool pic of the okefenokee fire still ragin.



Link

google earth KML

Firefighters at the Honey Prairie Wildfire burning in the Okefenokee Swamp are starting to get the upper hand as the weather in Baker County cooperates.

Because there is less wind, fewer homes are endangered and the fire is spreading slower that it did earlier this week.

The fire, which jumped into Florida after burning for nearly two weeks in Georgia, is now about 90,000 acres. Firefighters also are doing prescribed burns in Baker.

Off to an all-day meeting. Have a good one everyone.
Here's a good link for the middle and eastern part of the US; let's hope they don't get more rain in the valley.

LinkLoop
Quoting IKE:
A chance of rain here over the weekend....inland Florida panhandle....finally...

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after
1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest
between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.


We sure could use it here in FLorala
Quoting barometric:


We sure could use it here in FLorala


Ditto, need precip here in Dunedin, FL, too. Upper level haze from fires in S GA all week...
764. IKE
Quoting barometric:


We sure could use it here in FLorala
I've had .60 of an inch about 15 miles south of you...here in DFS...the last 5 weeks.

Right now...it's foggy and 67.6 outside my window.
Quoting barometric:


We sure could use it here in FLorala


Had a hailstorm yesterday here in Altamonte Springs (near the Altamonte Mall). Hail was about the size of nickels. I suspect that the coverage will be greater today as more moisture is available thru a deeper layer of the atmosphere. Oh by the way mad props to the Miami Heat. I was unsure how they would gel come the playoffs but they have proven me wrong and appear to be on the way to winning the Championship.
766. IKE

Quoting RastaSteve:


Had a hailstorm yesterday here in Altamonte Springs (near the Altamonte Mall). Hail was about the size of nickels. I suspect that the coverage will be greater today as more moisture is available thru a deeper layer of the atmosphere. Oh by the way mad props to the Miami Heat. I was unsure how they would gel come the playoffs but they have proven me wrong and appear to be on the way to winning the Championship.
Agree...they're playing like a championship team.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
706 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT.

* AT 704 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLINE...OR ABOUT
19 MILES EAST OF BRACKETTVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAGUNA AND UVALDE.
Quoting IKE:
I've had .60 of an inch about 15 miles south of you...here in DFS...the last 5 weeks.

Right now...it's foggy and 67.6 outside my window.


I've had less but just a few miles east of me there was a hailstorm where I work. 81 here already with a 74 degree dewpoint and the high was 99 yesterday and 96 at OIA.
Quoting emcf30:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
706 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT.

* AT 704 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLINE...OR ABOUT
19 MILES EAST OF BRACKETTVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAGUNA AND UVALDE.


Hey buddy was there any hail by you yesterday? I think you live near where I work.
770. Jax82
Quoting RastaSteve:


I've had less but just a few miles east of me there was a hailstorm where I work. 81 here already with a 74 degree dewpoint and the high was 99 yesterday and 96 at OIA.


Looks like its going to cool down this weekend with a chance of t-storms everyday. I sure hope so, i'll be out at TPC sawgrass.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Hey buddy was there any hail by you yesterday? I think you live near where I work.


No hail, very brief downpour. Had alot of wind and lightning. The hail core was moving south and went just to my East. I live just SE of Downtown in Conway. Maybe today.
772. IKE
Looks like a cool-down here early next week....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 85.
Quoting Jax82:


Looks like its going to cool down this weekend with a chance of t-storms everyday. I sure hope so, i'll be out at TPC sawgrass.


Yeah we need the rain very bad here in FL and it has been very hot really since March. So I will welcome rain and cooler temps.
Quoting emcf30:


No hail, very brief downpour. Had alot of wind and lightning. The hail core was moving south and went just to my East. I live just SE of Downtown in Conway. Maybe today.


Yeah the NWS in Melbourne kinda gave up on the rain yesterday and then out of no where storms started to pop and pop fast due to all the heat. I think with more moisture aloft today (ie. pwat of 1.5" as oppesed to 1.1" yesterday) should be the enough to allow for more widespread coverage this afternoon. Yesterday it was only about 4 or maybe 5 storms that developed but the ones that formed were intense.
775. IKE
NEW BLOG!

New Blog
777. MahFL
"which runs from June 1 to November 30 every year"

Well..who knew hurricane season happened "every" year ?
lol.