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Antarctic iceberg sinks cruise ship

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:39 PM GMT on November 27, 2007

The November 2007 sinking of the cruise ship MS Explorer after it hit an iceberg in Antarctic waters is a reminder that the Antarctic is a dangerous place to sail. Ever since British explorer Ernest Shackleton's ship Endurance met its end when it become trapped and crushed in pack ice near Antarctica, the Antarctic waters have been a notoriously dangerous place for boats. For those of you unfamiliar with the story of Shackleton's ill-fated expedition, I highly recommend a reading of The Endurance: Shackleton's Legendary Antarctic Expedition. The book details the most mind-blowing tale of survival and courage I have ever read. Shackleton's phenomenal leadership skills saved the lives of all of his men. Shackleton refused to sleep for over 30 consecutive days while leading his men in an arduous months-long trek over the treacherous Antarctic sea ice. His voyage to find help using an open boat in winter on the storm-tossed Scotia Sea may rank as the greatest navigation feat of all time.


Figure 1. Antarctic sea ice (purple colors) at the time the MS Explorer hit an iceberg and sank. Summer is approaching in the Southern Hemisphere, leading to melting and break up of the sea ice and plenty of icebergs. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Why talk about Antarctic sea ice?
You hear a lot of talk about Arctic sea ice, but not about Antarctic sea ice. That's because Antarctic sea ice is relatively unimportant to the Earth's climate. Antarctica is a huge continent that rises thousands of feet above the ocean. It holds about 90% of the world's fresh water, locked up in its massive ice cap. The presence of such a titanic block of ice at the bottom of the world completely dominates the weather and climate of the region, and the year-to-year fluctuations of sea ice don't have a lot of impact on temperatures there.

The other reason to ignore Antarctic sea ice is that it hasn't changed much over the historical record. A look at the sea ice coverage since 1978 (Figure 2) shows very little change. Climate skeptics have pointed out that Antarctic sea ice has been near its maximum area the past few winters. However, this is not considered statistically significant, and there is no overall trend apparent in the data.

However, Antarctic sea ice may be important because of its ability to insulate and buttress glaciers and semi-permanent ice shelves along the coast. Recent melting of sea ice due to warming temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula allowed warming ocean waters to penetrate close to shore, triggering the collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002. This Rhode Island-sized chunk of ice had been around thousands of years, and disintegrated in just three days. Any decline of Antarctic sea ice in coming decades might cause a speedier retreat of the continent's glaciers and ice shelves.


Figure 2. Antarctic sea ice area as observed via satellite since 1978. The maximum area in winter has ranged between 14-16 million square kilometers, about the same amount of ocean that the Arctic ice covers in winter. However, the Antarctic sea ice almost entirely melts away in summer, something the Arctic sea ice does not do (yet). Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

Antarctic cooling
What is significant is the fact that most of Antarctica cooled in recent decades (Figure 3). For example, the surface temperature at the South Pole cooled 0.05° C between 1980 and 1999 (Kwok and Comiso, 2002). However, the majority of Antarctica has shown no statistically significant warming over the past 50 years (Turner et al., 2005)--the cooling has just been over the past 25-30 years. In the period 2004-2007, much of the Antarctic warmed (Figure 4). Why did Antarctica cool between 1982 and 2004 if there was global warming going on?

Well, the globe, on average, has warmed about 1.1° F (0.65° C) in the 50 years ending in 2005 (IPCC, 2007). Given that there is a lot of natural variability in the climate, it should be expected that some areas of the globe would not see warming, given the relatively modest magnitude of global warming thus far.

Figure 3. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1982 and 2004. Much of Antarctica cooled during this period. Image credit: IPCC The Physical Science Basis, Figure 3.32.


Figure 4. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1981 and 2007. Note that the cooling trend observed from 1982-2004 has reversed, thanks to warming in the past few years. Image credit: NASA

In addition, the weather of the Antarctic is dominated by a strong band of westerly winds that blow around the pole. This circumpolar vortex extends from the surface to the stratosphere, and can attain very high wind speeds, thanks to the absence of large land masses to slow it down. This vortex tends to isolate Antarctica from the rest of the globe, keeping global warming from influencing Antarctica weather, and allowing the surface to cool. The Antarctic Peninsula, which sticks out from Antarctica towards South America, frequently lies outside the vortex. This has allowed the peninsula to warm significantly, compared to the rest of Antarctica (Figures 3 and 4). The Antarctic circumpolar vortex has strengthened in the past 25-30 years, forming an even stronger barrier than usual. Tree ring records (Jones and Widman, 2004) suggest that the circumpolar vortex has shown similar strengthening in the past, so the current cooling trend in Antarctica may be partly a natural cycle.

Another possibility, favored by climate modelers, is that the strengthening of the circumpolar vortex and recent cooling in Antarctica are primarily due to a combination of the recent increase in greenhouse gases and the opening of the Antarctic ozone hole. The ozone hole opened up at about the same time as the recent cooling began. Ozone absorbs UV radiation which heats the atmosphere around it, so the absence of ozone has led to cooling in the stratosphere over Antarctica. This cooling has been about 10° C in October-November since 1985 (Thompson and Solomon, 2002), and has acted to intensify the circumpolar vortex, leading to surface cooling. If the climate modelers are right, the circumpolar vortex will weaken as the ozone hole diminishes in coming decades. This will allow the Antarctic to begin warming with the rest of the globe.

References and resources

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, The Physical Science Basis.

Jones, J.M., and M. Widman, "Atmospheric science: Early peak in Antarctic oscillation index," Nature 432, 290-291 (18 November 2004) | doi:10.1038/432290b; Published online 17 November 2004.

Kwok, R., and J.C. Comiso, "Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, NO. 14, 10.1029/2002GL015415, 2002.

Thompson, D.W.J., and S. Solomon, "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change", Science 3 May 2002: Vol. 296. no. 5569, pp. 895 - 899 DOI: 10.1126/science.1069270.

Turner, J. et al., 2005, "Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years", International Journal of Climatology, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp 279-294.

Arctic sea ice

"Antarctic cooling, global warming?" RealClimate.org post, 3 December 2004.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr.Masters!
Hey SJ and Levi!

For those wondering theres very little chance of anything popping across the atlantic as fast upper level winds are in control across most if not all of the entire basin. Adrian
Thanks Dr. Masters,fascinating information.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Seems a lot of ships going down lately :(. Interesting info on Antarctica.
Hey Adrian!! Nice to see you :)

Yeah it's highly unlikely anything will form. I never say never though, because in the weather there's never an exact 0% chance of anything happening or not happening. It's always 0.00000001% or greater lol.
Thanks Dr Masters.

Here's a few incredible pics of the shipwreck.
Good to see ya Adrian, hope all is well!
Yipee!! Dr Masters has been sprung. Thank you for new blog.
I am a little curious about this; this map (past 365 day anomalies) shows warming in Antarctica that is similar in magnitude to the Arctic:



Either there is some seriously messed up data (from here), or the past year has been quite different from recent years past.
Hey Adrian, stumbled on to you're site. It's quite impressive.
Can someone recommend a good forecasting model to see big airmasses moving out of Siberia?

I remember as a kid being told that the coldest weather would come the to US Midwest and South when cold Siberian air plunged southward. I can see precip maps and the like in the GFS model, but does anyone see what I'm getting it that has a suggestion or two?

Thanks!
Good morning StormW. I'm off to see your synopsis.

Oh we're off to see the wizzard. . .
Thanks, doc, and good morning all.
wxfan - These N. Pacific models show Siberia pretty well.

As far as what you were told about Siberian air masses, it's a pretty good teleconnection rule of thumb, but it doesn't always apply. I've lived under the influence of Siberian air masses all my life, and once off the continent it can do a myriad of different things in the pattern.
I am going on an Antarctic cruise this February :)
Thanks for the update Doc.

Morning StormW, Sir.
wxfan, you are probably talking about the Siberian Express as it is called.

I have always felt this was misleading because the Express is actually just the polar airmass movement out of Canada down into the CONUS because of a strong jet stream.
And....Dr. Masters was also quoted in an article on the front page of the Florida Times Union today, about the inaccuracies of pre-season hurricane season forecasts :)
Here's the image of the front page today
Go Doc M with the front page news quote. Congrats
How was your Thanksgiving Storm? Good I hope :o)
Here is a few pictures from the rescuers of the Explorer







M/V Nordnorge's Taylor Echlin Recounts The Rescue Efforts of Nov. 23, 2007 In The Antarctic --

"Hi everyone:
This is the email you all want to receive. I'm going to tell you about the rescue at sea of the passengers of the M/V Explorer by the crew of the M/V Nordnorge.

Friday morning, Nov. 23 ... By 0600 I'm up -- shower and shave, put on brand new clean clothes ... and then tidy up the cabin for our cabin steward.

As I leave our stateroom there is an announcement by Franze over the PA system --

"Good morning ladies and gentlemen. I'm sorry to wake you at this early hour, but there's been a change in our day's plans. We are rushing to the rescue of a sinking ship. We will be there shortly. Please do not use decks 5 and 7. We need to keep those decks clear so our crew can do their proper work, and effect the rescue. We will provide you with more information later."
I re-entered the cabin, got dressed properly for being outside, and picked up my camera....

Here's what happened on the M/V Explorer the previous night -- the ship had about 100 passengers, 8 Expedition leaders, and 50 crew. M/V Explorer was plowing through an enormous ice floe. ... Some time around midnight -- just as they were about to exit the ice floe -- the ship plowed into the very last growler which punctured a fist-sized hole in the starboard side. The ship started taking on water.

The passengers were sleeping in their cabins on Deck 3. One fellow woke up at the sound of the ice hit -- and heard trickling -- like a tap was running. Soon there was water on his floor. The passenger went to find a crew member -- who came down, tasted the salt water, and knew immediately that they had a problem. Soon water was flooding the third deck -- and the passengers started clearing the floor of their belongings. ...


Link
Thanks for the update, Doc M. History Channel had a program on about Shackleton and the Endurance. It was really good. One of those "something to think about when you think YOU got it bad" kinds of things.
Our lifeboats will be tenders with roofs. We are actually taking the last cruise of the season there--end of Feb/beginning of fall to hopefully see some wild fall storms!
Good Morning all. Thanks for the comments, DR. Masters.
The adventures of Shackleton and his men in the Antartic is a story I read whern I was a boy, and the tale has stayed in my memory, moreso since I have read the book " Shackeltons Valiant Voyage " by Alfred Lensing, several times over the years.Lensing was part of the expedition.
As the Dr. said, it is a story of incredible endurance and will power, and I think about it when things seem too difficult to do. Then I think "a man can do ANYTHING "
Great Storm. Have fun at your meeting
Good morning,was anyone able to get into StormW analysis?I can't open it.
Yea NE I was able too. Wunderground seems to be a little slow right now. Maybe updating servers or something
ok,finally able to get into Storms analysis,network here must be slow
I know network slow!!!!Hard to believe.
Hey,Bone,you get a little foggy last night??
Bone? When you had it post a later post ahead of an earlier post...right after that, I hit refresh and the durned thing opened 50 bazillion WU windows
a little foggy? I got alot foggy LOL. By the time I made it home from work I was driving with just parking lights on because of the glare. At one point while walking the dog later that night I couldnt see the houses from the street.
LOL Baja. Guess they are doing server or site updates and it is messin with things. Hopefully all is back to normal now
36. Bonedog 5:00 PM GMT on November 27, 2007
a little foggy? I got alot foggy LOL. By the time I made it home from work I was driving with just parking lights on because of the glare. At one point while walking the dog later that night I couldnt see the houses from the street.

Yeh,I was watching reports and saw the dense fog in your area,it was pretty bad up here too.
Yea news forgets us up in the mountains though:) besides the fog the cloud deck dropped thus enveloping the area with both
where did everybody go? lost in the fog? LOL :o)
Hey Bonedog, just back from reading sinking tale. Thanks for great link. That might hold me through my next insomnia attack.
9. MichaelSTL 4:10 PM GMT on November 27, 2007
I am a little curious about this; this map (past 365 day anomalies) shows warming in Antarctica that is similar in magnitude to the Arctic:


I'm with STL - why does this map dispute what Dr. Master's has in his blog. If the data from the map is that wrong about Antarctica, then could it be equally wrong with the Arctic Circle?
Good Afternoon,


Thanks Doc for the Antartic info......Seems to be the new wave news... This is the third time that I have heard references to the lower ice ocean in the past 2 weeks.....
your welcome Shen. That site is updated daily with all reported shipping incidents. I belive the link for daily reports is at the top. But they usually have the info before anyone else does. They also get some great exclusive shots and testimonies. I check it out every day.
here is the link to the daily reports incase it wasnt on the other page I linked

Vessel Causualties

Just scroll down the page to get to them
Antarctica is cooling! Take that global warming. LOL
I like this update masters if you read this. A lot of good information.
I'm just a Dumb Hill-Billy but I thought the good Dr is saying that the amount of warming/melting in Antarctica is cyclical and shows no trend change but the amount of cooling in the center of the continent is trending toward colder range?


Van Heerden and Harry Shearer discuss Wetlands, surge and more.






Scientist to discuss storm damage effects
By MEGHA SATYANARAYANA
megha@sunherald.com





LONG BEACH --Post-Katrina destruction of Louisiana's waterways has rippled over to the Mississippi Coast, said author Ivor van Heerden, author of the highly publicized "The Storm - What Went Wrong and Why during Hurricane Katrina - the Inside Story from One Louisiana Scientist."

van Heerden will discuss the issue Thursday at this month's Issues Answers lecture series, which returns to the Gulf Park Campus of the University of Mississippi for the first time since Hurricane Katrina.

van Heerden is the deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center and previously led wetlands restoration projects for the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources.

"The return of Issues Answers to the Gulf Park campus represents yet another step in the recovery efforts of Southern Miss Gulf Coast," said Dr. Pat Joachim, associate provost for the University of Southern Mississippi Gulf Coast. "We are happy that, along with our partner the Sun Herald, we are able to return the series to our campus where the community can enjoy our comfortable, state-of-the-art auditorium."

In his lecture, van Heerden will talk about the destruction of the barrier islands and how they protect the Coast from strong surges. A little-known fact, he said, was that waves following the initial Katrina surge did much of the damage. And some of Mississippi's damage was a direct result of Louisiana's levee breach.

"Our futures are tied in that what we do in Louisiana will have an effect in Mississippi, and the opposite holds true," he said.

van Heerden is often credited with predicting the levee catastrophe in New Orleans months before Katrina and has publicly spoken against the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA for their failures post-hurricane. In an interview with the science show "Nova" on Oct. 29, 2004, he predicted the water rise, flooding, and stranded people in New Orleans, should a Category 3 hurricane hit New Orleans. He has often said his warnings fell on deaf ears.

Now that the environmental damage of Katrina is starting to surface, van Heerden will also talk about scientists and their role in politics, especially in getting funding for coastal restoration and levees. Restoring the coastline, he said, is not just good for recreation, but for business as well. Petroleum shortages mean there is pressure to open the Gulf of Mexico, he said.

As global warming experts predict stronger hurricanes, the safe redevelopment of the Coast will draw more companies and better jobs, he said.

"Recovery of the economy to pre-Katrina levels means you have to prove it's safe," he said.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you go

Who: Ivor van Heerden, hurricane expert and professor at LSU.

What: Issues Answers lecture series. van Heerden will talk about how Mississippi's watershed has suffered because of Katrina's damage to Louisiana.

Where: USM Gulf Park in Long Beach AEC building.

When: 7 p.m. Thursday.
This naval disaster is no coincidence. Tours to the region became popular and the accident happens in a period market by unusual cold in the southern hemisphere. Explorer hit the iceberg in the same week that we at MetSul Weather Center reported here at ICECAP about major problems in the Brazilian Antarctic Base of Comandante Ferraz due to the excessive amount of ice and snow surrounding the installation that was preventing local researchers of getting fresh water in the nearby lakes. For months we have been reporting and commenting here at ICECAP about South America’s very harsh winter in 2007 with snowfall events and temperature averages not seen in decades. Last month, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign's Polar Research Group indicated the southern hemisphere’s sea ice area reached 16.17 million square kilometers, narrowly breaking the old record of 16.03 million square kilometers. The record data goes back to 1979.
It is worth mentioning that the cruise ship hit the ice in a month market by a major plunge in the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO). This oscillation played a major role in modulating the incursion of polar air in South America in recent months. The coldest months were observed during the most negative periods of the AAO.

Britain's Maritime and Coastguard Agency spokesman Mark Clark said there was a lot of ice in the area, but the vessel was built to withstand ice. But 2007 is not in any means a regular year in the southern pole. “This has been and exceptional year of ice in Antarctica”, says the Brazilian adventurer Amyr Klink in a interview to the Brazilian newspaper Zero Hora concerning the naval disaster in the pole.
Klink is a celebrity in Brazil. Sailor and adventurer, he concluded the first-ever solo world circumnavigation on a sailboat around Antarctica and is a frequent visitor of the ice continent in his expeditions. In the interview to the Zero Hora newspaper he told more about this year that he describes as of “exceptional ice” in Antarctica. According to Amyr Klink, he was onboard the Nordnorge cruise ship in October when the boat failed to reach the Antartica Peninsula. This is the area alarmists claim is melting fastly and Nordnoge is the boat that now rescued passengers and crew of the Explorer. The year of 2007 will be definitely always be remembered by the unusual and extreme weather events in this part of the globe.
More evidence that Global Warming isn't a permanent thing, but just a global pattern that we haven't recorded enough of yet to really understand or predict.


....no GW debates in this blog though remember....

Lol
Like I said I'm no climatologist but it seems to me that they are pretty much in agreement that the planet we ride on is in a warming cycle. The quarrel is how much our species is contributing to the rate and can or should we be trying to do something about our part.
Does anyone have a link to how the Arctic sea ice is doing this fall after last september's summer minimum?
Climate change might not be forever but tell that to the critters who were riding this spaceship before the ice age if you can time travel. I'm sure they will be greatly relieved.
Next blog
Friday is the last day of hurricane season, and I'll summarize how the preseason predictions did.

Jeff Masters


4 days of sea ice suits me good. Thanks doc!
I can summarize the preseason predictions too...Egotistically Over-estimated
@StSimonsIslandGAGuy

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/






Here's all I have for a link StSimonsIslandGAGuy


Yukon Cornelius finds a Artic Abomidable
Arctic Sea Ice: Link
Damnit! there's no beating Patrap with a post.
Thanks! Looks like Arctic ice is recovering nicely :) Although Hudson Bay looks amazingly ice free for so late.
62. EvPv
While the discussion regarding our influence on climate change is always interesting, the real reason to use less fuel in the U.S. is national security. If the environmental groups realized this, and pushed in that direction, it could perhaps lower the U.S. gasoline usage for the first time (for a year's total) since 1991.

Other than emissions, large fuel oil consumption in the U.S. sends money to parts of the world who, well to put it politely, don't like us. It also hurts the trade balance. I recommend Bill Maher's book (or audiobook) "When You Ride Alone, You Ride With Bin Laden" for a well put look at this issue. He doesn't even touch the climate issue.
Excellent Point EvPv,

If we open up Alaska, the West Coast & East Coast of Fla..and Near Shore California. We wouldnt have all the critical wells Just in the GOM. People want clean Beaches, but reality is. The more we Buy crude from unstable Nations, Iran, Saudi Arabia..and many others. Were doomed to keep funding the Radicalist.

Remember..It was 19 Saudis who did 911. Not Iraqis..not Afghanis..but thats a debate for another entry.
Brrrr..turn up the heat a smidge...
EvPv well said!
Well put EvPv.

Like I been saying for years: I don't know much about climate but I do know a little bit about mothers and it appears to me Mother Nature is getting pissed about the mess we've been making of the space ship and I'm not sure what she's gonna do about it but if she's at all like my Mom, we ain't gonna like it.
shenvalley...but unlike your own Mom, Mother Nature doesn't know you or care about you. So when she makes a correction, best not be there, or at least get out of the way.
An interesting lecture regarding the AGW subject. This is a four part video series. Here is part one.....the others are available from this Youtube page:



67. franck Mother Nature doesn't know you or care about you. So when she makes a correction, best not be there, or at least get out of the way.

You youngins better be listening to this guy. If you don't get what he's talkin bout go acx yer Uncle Patrap.
First of all...who are you calling a 'youngin' =)

And yes....I understand perfectly lol.


Northern hemisphere sea-ice compared to last year


11/26/06
Northern hemisphere sea-ice 11/26/06

--------


11/26/07
Northern hemisphere sea-ice 11/26/07
Hello everyone. I have been reading a lot of comments over the past few days making it seem like the NOAA predictions were "egotistically wrong" as one person put it. But lets be real here, the main people who over-hyped it was the media earlier this year. NOAA said the chance for a US major hurricane hit was high, and it was, but just didnt happen. They said 13-17 named storms, and that happened. The hurricane/major hurricane prediction didnt occur but predictions can be hard to have come true.
“…cooling will be the more damaging; arguably, it is also the most imminent threat…” By Dr. Bob Carter, Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, Australia

”...Of the two future climate possibilities, dangerous warming or dangerous cooling, the evidence suggests that cooling will be the more damaging; arguably, it is also the most imminent threat. First, because there has been no measurable warming of global average temperatures since 1998; second, because this lack of warming coincides with empirical computer predictions for cooling and evidence for decreasing solar activity in the first few decades of the 21st century; and third because the current warm interglacial period has already lasted 10 000 years and will inevitably be followed by a glaciation.”


74. H2PV
When I was young there was a saying going around: "Live Fast, Die Young, Have a Beautiful Corpse".

I did the first, missed the second, and it's too late for the third. I broke a few vital things and sooner rather than than later I'll be joining those who lived by that creed. I no longer have a dog in this fight. I fritter away my golden years tending a website with 12,000 pages. Some of what I have on the web apples to the current discussion in one way or another:

62. EvPv 6:43 PM GMT on November 27, 2007
While the discussion regarding our influence on climate change is always interesting, the real reason to use less fuel in the U.S. is national security
.

63. Patrap 6:47 PM GMT on November 27, 2007
The more we Buy crude from unstable Nations, Iran, Saudi Arabia..and many others. Were doomed to keep funding the Radicalist.


I have the time, and I took the time, to figure out what's what. In 41 years at the latest, all US energy will come from solar. The electric usage takes 90% of the space now used as residential rooftops. The transportation supply takes 4 to 10 times that much power, if patterns don't change (which they will).

In 1998 GM put the EV1 on the road with 18.7 kWh of lead-Acid batteries good for 55 to 95 miles range. Those weren't the best batteries on sale in 1998, nor the bast we know how to make. Both doubling the power capacity and halving the weight would produce 200+ mile range with 72 kilowatt-hour storage capacity with the same weight vehicle (~3,100 pounds).

The US has 105 million households but 200 million fleet of cars and light trucks (vans, pickups, SUVs). 200 million vehicles with 72 kWh capacity can power all US homes for 6 days straight. A 60 kWh fuel cell car can power 60 homes for as many hours as it has fuel in the tank. Cars are not really the problem -- they are the solution, only when they are H2-PV cars.

The US interstate highway system right of ways with a 12" diameter hydrogen pipeline running alongside would hold around 10 billion kilos of hydrogen, enough to drive a fuel cell fleet of 200,000,000 cars from Los Angeles to NYC.

The pressure in the pipeline is similar to the pressure in the tanks that scuba divers strap on their bare backs for comparison. If you are scared of Hydrogen than you are psychologically unfit for the space age, as H2+O2 is the only non-polluting rocket fuel available to make a space age.

PV (PhotoVoltaics) is made basically out of the same stuff as beer cans and beer bottles, Aluminum and Silicon. The technology is not vastly more sophisticated when you look into it. The cost of PV should be around the value of beer cans and beer bottles when PV is made in the same mass volumes as beer cans and beer bottles.

Who are the "radicalists"? Chevron oil company owns Corbysis and controls the NiMH patents which is why you can't buy plug-in hybrids with NiMH batteries. The same Chevron joined GM and Exxon (Standard Oil) in demolishing 100 cities electric streetcar lines in the 1930s. GM sold their share of the Corbysis operation to Chevron-Phillips, and now GM can't make the hypothetical someday Chevy Volt go even 40 miles on pure electric range, although the EV1 went 55 to 95 miles on Lead-Acid batteries nine years ago.

The saboteurs are the ones moving our wealth to the middle east while lying about basic facts of national self-sufficiency. Al Qaeda couldn't be sapping the country more effectively.

Patrap ought to read the book "The Plot to Seize the Whitehouse" which contains the biography of "Ol' Gimlet-Eye" Smedley Butler.

Butler blew the whistle on the coup plotters, but with the internet you can dig a lot more facts than Butler ever knew in his lifetime. Butler died before Standard Oil execs Teagle & Farish were charged and convicted with Trading With the Enemy. He never knew a tenth of it, but this is what he said about what he did know:


"I spent thirty- three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle- man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism.

I suspected I was just part of a racket at the time. Now I am sure of it. Like all the members of the military profession, I never had a thought of my own until I left the service. My mental faculties remained in suspended animation while I obeyed the orders of higher-ups. This is typical with everyone in the military service.

I helped make Mexico, especially Tampico, safe for American oil interests [Chevron] in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank [Standard Oil bank] boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefits of Wall Street. The record of racketeering is long. I helped purify Nicaragua for the international banking house of Brown Brothers in 1909-1912 [Prescott Bush's partners]. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for American sugar interests in 1916. In China I helped to see to it that Standard Oil went its way unmolested.

During those years, I had, as the boys in the back room would say, a swell racket. Looking back on it, I feel that I could have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents."


good day to all
There has been many Smedley types H2PV.

Maurice Strong.
78. H2PV
73. vortfix 8:22 PM GMT on November 27, 2007
“…cooling will be the more damaging; arguably, it is also the most imminent threat…” By Dr. Bob Carter, Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, Australia


Another alarmist arguing for a coming Ice Age. Wasn't he doing this in the 1970s too, if I remember??? Crackpot!

Another alarmist arguing for a coming Ice Age. Wasn't he doing this in the 1970s too, if I remember??? Crackpot!

Empirical evidence is more believable than a so-called "scientific consensus" involving an extremely small number of global scientists.

Here's the rest of that lecture:

1) Link

2) Link

3) Link
Patrap ought to read the book "The Plot to Seize the Whitehouse" which contains the biography of "Ol' Gimlet-Eye" Smedley Butler.

"Loved the quote,if ya quoted Dad said,,there listening."
YA preaching to the Choir Friend..and yes..Ive read the Book

Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881 %u2013 June 21, 1940), nicknamed "The Fighting Quaker" and "Old Gimlet Eye," was a Major General in the U.S. Marine Corps and, at the time of his death, the most decorated Marine in U.S. history.

During his 34 years of Marine Corps service, Butler was awarded numerous medals for heroism including the Marine Corps Brevet Medal (the highest Marine medal at its time for officers), and subsequently the Medal of Honor twice. Notably, he is one of only 19 people to be twice awarded the Medal of Honor, and one of only three to be awarded a Marine Corps Brevet Medal and a Medal of Honor, and the only person to be awarded a Marine Corps Brevet Medal and a Medal of Honor for two different actions.

In addition to his military career, Smedley Butler was noted for his outspoken anti-interventionist views, and his book War is a Racket. His book was one of the first works describing the workings of the military-industrial complex and after retiring from service, he became a popular speaker at meetings organized by veterans, pacifists and church groups in the 1930s.

In 1934, he informed the United States Congress that a group of wealthy industrialists had plotted a military coup to overthrow the government of President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Semper Fi!..I think,..LOL
GULF OF MEXICO

A well define cold front continues push its way across the Gulf, now located between the Yucatan Peninsula across Central Florida through 27N/81W. The front continues to lie within strong diffluent flow aloft between a ridge over the Caribbean and a trough over the Eastern United States. Satellite imagery showed most of the moisture along the front is in the form of mid-high level clouds. In addition to that, Naples, Florida is reporting mid-level clouds while Merida, Mexico is reporting overcast skies near 9000 m suggesting cirrostratus clouds.

Enough about clouds. As the front moves off to the east, the associated 1030 mb high pressure ridge is establish over the Southern Mississippi Valley near 32N/95W producing moderate to strong north to northeast winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W. These winds are impacting the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, creating a funneling effect leading to gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Meanwhile, cold air stratocumulus is being advected over the Northern Gulf north of 27N and exceptionally fair weather dominates the Southern Mississippi Valley due high pressure ridge and dry stable air associated with the upper trough.

by W456
Not sure if anyone's looking at the CMC, but it's showing a tropical storm in the south-central Atlantic in 4 days.
We would like to have more members join us at

http://centralwx.com/index.php

please join and contribute if you can
Keep ya eye on it ...its going to turn North...
I could not fit this into the synopsis but ROABS from Veracruz, Mexico shows the passage of the front. Look the lowest level and look how the winds back from northwesterly, west then southwest.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The most active weather over the region today lies across Southern Central America and the Caribbean Sea west of 77W and south of 17N. This activity is linked to increase low level inflow and convergence enhanced by upper level outflow induced by an upper anticyclone near 10N/81W. In the meantime, mid-upper level dry air covers the Central and Eastern Caribbean, thus most of the moisture is the form of low level scattered showers being advected by the trades across the Greater Antilles and Lesser Antilles, particularly the Leeward Islands. High pressure north of the area continues to maintain 20-35 knot winds across the waters east of the Leeward Islands to the Southwest Caribbean. These winds continue to create breezy conditions across the region and whipping up 20 ft seas...25 ft across some spots. Small craft advisory remains in effect.


by W456
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

A cold front goes from Central Florida northeastward to beyond 37N/69W. Scattered multilayer cloudiness and showers are within 132 nm either side of the front. A strong high pressure ridge centered 1036 mb near 38N/40W producing fair weather and 20 knot anticyclonic flow over the Atlantic between 50W and the front.

An interesting feature across the Subtropical Atlantic where a highly amplified upper trough is producing weak to moderate scattered showers from 18N to 28N between 40W and 58W. The upper trough is also inducing a surface trough near 30N/43W 20N/43W, that could be the focal point of some subtropical or tropical development over the next few days though I am still skeptical of this.


by W456
Well the cmc has been a little persistant on developing a cyclone in the south-central atlantic, and the gfs shows a very weak system forming, however 36-48 hours or so later than the cmc and the ukm also shows something but at a much later time period at about 100 hours
Thanks for the update 456...guess we will watch for any development however the chances of it happening is probably low.
In the long-range, the CMC wobbles the system around near Hispaniola as a weak TS.
I love surprises so one more storm wouldn't hurt.
Long-Range Forecast for Florida - December 2007

December 2007
Avg. Temperature: 60° (3° below avg.)
Precipitation: 2" (0.5" below avg.)
Dec. 1-4: Showers, then sunny, cool
Dec. 5-9: Showers, then sunny; freeze north and central
Dec. 10-17: Sunny, turning warmer
Dec. 18-23: Rain, warm
Dec. 24-30: Sunny, cool
Dec. 31: Rain



Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Karen was released. Karen was found to have reached category one status for 12 hours on September 26th. Maximum sustained winds were 75mph and the minumum pressure was 988mb
well all it is now post-season re-analysis


Karen was redesignated as a hurricane in the post-season re-analysis
“…cooling will be the more damaging; arguably, it is also the most imminent threat…” By Dr. Bob Carter, Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, Australia


Anyone worth their salt knows that James Cook University is hardly an educational institution but more a mouthpiece for the carbon-fuels lobbists that are the main source of its funding.

It's entirely within Carter's interests to publicly speak about climate cooling, when his paymasters are major CO2 emitters that have in the past been linked to climate warming.


Just some thought to grays december forcast approaching in a few weeks.This december forcast in my personal opinion is pretty much useless as its impossible to know what atmospheric conditions will be in place 6 months from now.For all we know there is a chance that a significant nino will come about late in 2008 similar to the 92 or 93 season.Overall its pretty much entertainment for me but will read as iam been following them for years.

NOAA to me did a great job with there forcast as they predicted 13-17 named tropical cyclones and we ended up with 6 hurricanes as karen was upgraded via the ATCF file.They also called for 3-5 majors and we ended up with 2 in 07.

We'll see what happens! Adrian
Here is an image from the PDF which shows Karen a 988mb minimal hurricane.Which now brings the total to 6 for 2007.

This seems appropriate for this post, especially since Mike and I are going on an Antarctic Cruise (last of the season, end of Feb/begin of March, beginning of the fall storm season Link
99. H2PV
80. Patrap 9:08 PM GMT on November 27, 2007

Patrap ought to read the book "The Plot to Seize the Whitehouse" which contains the biography of "Ol' Gimlet-Eye" Smedley Butler.

YA preaching to the Choir Friend..and yes..Ive read the Book


Too bad there weren't Google Maps then... I've identified each address given in the book on a google map:
http://tinyurl.com/2qw3oe

I used some other books to cross-reference the relationships. The maps tell a story:
http://tinyurl.com/367nzg

Just to be clear who the "radicalists" have always been, they're the guys who raised Hitler and killed 200,000,000 people last century, 5,479 people per day on average every single day from January 1, 1900 through January 1, 2,000, or almost two 9/11's per day for a century. Their grandkids want to do the same through this century. They have a racket going on, and they are racketeers, just like Smedley said they were.

Hey, they just swept 3,000 (10,000?, 15,000?) under the rug in Bangladesh because they don't have "enough" yet, and they never can get "enough" no matter how many billions fill their vaults.
Nothings gonna develop lol. The cmc is full of crap. Look at the water vapor imagery, thats all you need to see. Also the upper level winds are anywhere from 50-70 knots.
Good lord. Are the protocols of zion going to be posted next?

I still think this link is funnier ;-) Link

and more appropriate :)
Thats song is as Lame today as It was back then..LOL
Well I like that song :) Besides given this history, we are all being monitored anyway. Dr. Masters has a great sense of humor naming this site after this :) Link

Everytime we log on here the ears of the
NSA spooks prick up ;-)

You're just jealous you're not going on an Antarctic cruise yourself :)
lol did my post scare some of you. Yes, i haven't been posting here in a while although i do come to this site everyday to see whats going on. Maybe i'll do a blog on low pressure systems over the U.S. or winter storms. Don't know yet. I see the blog has quited down dramatically though.
Thats not the genesis of the WU site name. Some just play it that way.
partly because you haven't been here with your good insight Drak :)
A well define cold front pushing across the Western Atlantic. Nexsat Cloudtop porduct

Heights of the cloud top

Wikipedia says this site *IS* named for the weather underground group. But we can always ask Jeff Masters himself!

Link
Been to the Artic though..Im a Bluenose.
Now go look that up..LOL



It may be..but who gives a ratts Butt..LOL

Did you or them Hornets win in your Backyard?
They both started at the University of Michigan.
Fascinating...
Yep, isn't it? Looks like it really was the genesis of the name after all :)
110. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 5:47 PM CST on November 27, 2007
Wikipedia says this site *IS* named for the weather underground group. But we can always ask Jeff Masters himself!


That is correct, according to WU's background page:

The First Internet Weather Service
Jeff Masters, when a PhD candidate in meteorology at the University of Michigan and working under the direction of Professor Perry Samson, wrote a menu-based telnet interface in 1991, which displayed real-time weather information around the world. By 1992, the two servers his system used were rattling off their desks as "um-weather" became the most popular service on the Internet.

Perry and Jeff, in 1993, recruited Jeff Ferguson and Alan Steremberg to help build a system to bring Internet weather into K-12 classrooms. Chris Schwerzler joined Alan in his work on the Mac gopher client, "Blue Skies," which won numerous awards for its interactive imagery and text information. In the interest of expanding "Blue Skies" to other platforms, Dave Brooks, author of the Windows "WS Gopher" client, developed "Blue Skies for Windows" in 1994. The growing Internet weather program was given the name "The Weather Underground", a tongue-in-cheek reference to the 1960's radical group that also originated at the University of Michigan.
I knew that would pop-up.LOL

And by Whom..
Thanks Michael! :)
Also, no matter how unlikely it may appear right now, I think there is a chance, although a small one, that a storm could form in the next week; two December storms developed in 2003 and one in 2005, in addition to one storm in 2004 and 2005 that continued into December (when will they extend hurricane season through the end of the year?). And conditions were very hostile by this time of the year, even in 2005 (December 2005 average shear):



I doubt that storms like Epsilon and Zeta were fully tropical anyway, even if the NHC called them tropical (also recall all of the forecasts, for days on end, for them to dissipate in a day or two due to highly unfavorable conditions? Tells me that they were not your typical tropical systems). As somebody else said, there are no absolutes, and given recent years the chances are higher than historical records would indicate (I think they should also try to forecast Category 5 hurricanes; for example, 13-16 storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes and 1-2 Cat 5 hurricanes; they are also becoming "normal" now).
As we all knew, Karen was and now officially is a hurricane I see
Yous guys been crackin on the weathermen caus I got a friend who knows diz guy in Newz Youark whut might have sumpin to say bout that. Link
I am going to say that I doubt there will be a named December storm this year. No scientific basis for that, just a feeling ;-)
So for the 2007 atlantic season:

14 Named Storms (4 above average)
6 hurricanes (average)
2 major hurricanes (average-although both were landfalling cat 5's)

And the ACE was 67.0 (although will be slightly higher due to Karen's reclassification). This is below the mean average but is considered "near normal."

Definatly an interesting season. Wouldnt rule out maybe another storm out of a non-tropical system sometime in December.
Then watch this become the first december with 3 named storms form ;-) I also remember a long-lived december storm in 1984, Lili :)
Also, the ACE could very well be even higher, if they determine Dean having a higher wind speed than originally estimated. Dean probably was a little stronger, as they measured flight level winds of 165 kts, which averages to about 150 kt sfc winds, which is actually about 175 mph, which would make since with the central pressure that was estimated.
Also, there is the question as to if the 163 kt sfc wind measured in felix was completely incorrect or not, so once again it is possible for some adjustment in intensity if they feel the wind measurement had some validity.
Also, it wouldnt be out of the question to see something like Hurricane Nicole this time of the year: (From wikipedia)

Hurricane Nicole was the last hurricane in the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. It developed from a frontal low to the south of the Azores on November 24, and quickly strengthened to reach winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) as it moved to the west-southwest. An approaching upper-level trough moved over the system, producing strong wind shear which rapidly weakened Nicole to a tropical depression. After the trough passed, the system entered an area of lighter shear, and steadily restrengthened. An approaching cold front turned it to the northeast, and while moving over anomalously warm sea surface temperatures Nicole attained hurricane status. It reached a peak intensity of 85 mph (135 km/h) on December 1, and rapidly weakened over the waters of the north Atlantic Ocean. Nicole was most intense hurricane and tied for the second strongest hurricane in the month of December.
PPL like the Weather Channel are going to use every excuse to say 2007 was below normal or near normal. Their biggest argument, the US has not had major hit this year. The TWC channel IMO is waste of ppl times and TV space. They are a bunch of meteorologists who downplay the tropics becuz some Caribbean cruise ship company sponsors them. They purposely downplay the tropics so more ppl can go on Caribbean Cruises, generating money for the Company to give to the TWC*. A bunch of Neanderthals sometimes making Accuweather look like the lost city of Atlantis. Two persons i really like on TWC are Jim. C and Dr. S. Lyons....the rest are like manure to me.

Notice how they are always saying "only area of showers down here and should be fine if your taking a trip down to Jamaica or over by the Antilles."
I agree 456, I also love to watch TWC say something isnt likely to develop when at the same time the NHC could be saying TD formation in a day or so...its just funny.
And common sense is not so common these days either. Two cat 5 landfall and a deadly Tropical Storm with two rapidly intensify cat 1 hurricanes and the season is below average.

Another thing, why the hell are ppl comparing 2005 with 2007. We all no 2005 was a freak year. But u know what lets compare it to 2005 so it doesn't seem so bad and thats going to be the method for the next 50 years. I would always wish that 2005 did not exist and not just becuz of Katrina.

The South American Monsoon Simplified

Southeast trades over the South Atlantic turn easterly across Northern South America. As they move across the Amazon Basin, the eventually encounter the Andes Mountains and is concentrated southward into a Low Level Jet. The jet flows into the Chaco Low...a heat low. Rises forming precipitation and its then exhausted out by the Bolivian High (notice how the convection has clockwise signature). The SACZ is the South Atlantic Convergence Zone lying between the southerlies east of the Chaco Low and the permanent easterlies of subtropical ridge over the S ATL (specifically, the St. Helena High).

later
weather456 re posts 128 & 130

Please, this is a forum for the discussion of weather...not an excuse for profanities and/or the trivializing other peoples point of view.

The comparison with 2005 is quite valid. If you compare the ACE numbers and, at the same time, consider how the ACE numbers are derived, it is easy to conclude that 2007 was a kitten. With an ACE of 67, there was little, if any opportunity, for the storms to whip into much of a sustained frenzy. An 80 MPH storm, Noel, managed to be labeled a 'deadly storm' because the infrastructure of the counties involved were woefully inept at preparing for and handling its presence. It was a rain event that killed those people and not the horrific winds...80 mph???

The Weather Channel etal, reviewed this years data and concluded that it was much ado about nothing. Same data as was available to those who would have had us diving for cover. Why should their conclusion be any more suspect than yours, for example. I don't know you...is it right for me to conclude that you have ulterior motives in your methodology simply because of your conclusions regarding this hurrican season...Of course not.

I like to believe that we come to this forum as scientists and that means we must keep reminding ourselves to leave our preconceived notions and biases 'at the door'. Otherwise we are little more that gossip mongers or magpies cawing on the telephone lines.

But how could you compare a season to 2005 when the activity was outragious. That would make every season seem like a kitten or a bust. Noel was a deadly storm because of where it hit at but that doesnt make it any less deadly because it hit a nation other than the US or other nations better off in terms of wealth and safety. Good night all.
134. lindenii 9:43 PM EST on November 27, 2007
You have a valid and well reasoned point up until you start denigrating the countries involved in the loss of life this year. We here in the US are defiantly standing on one leg if we take an honest look at how we responded in 2005. I suspect that 456's ire is based on his closer proximity to the tragedies of this year. Additionally i understand that there is discussion within the scientific community if relying solely on wind categories is useful in predicting and comparing outcomes of storms.
37. lindenii 6:33 PM AKST on November 27, 2007 Hide this comment.
extreme236 RE: post 125

150 kt is equal to about 95 mph and not the 175 mph you suggested.

Go to the following site for more information.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001713.html


ROFL, that site is for Kilometers to miles. This is KNOTS and miles we're talking about lol. 150 kts does equal approximately 175mph.
ShenValleyFlyFish RE: post 136

"You have a valid and well reasoned point up until you start denigrating the countries involved in the loss of life this year. We here in the US are defiantly standing on one leg if we take an honest look at how we responded in 2005."

***********

I believe you are comparing apples to oranges when you attempt to compare our response to a MAJOR STORM with winds approaching CAT5 at landfall versus an inept governmental response to, essentially, an overgrown thunderstorm.

Yes, loss of life is always a terrible thing; however, the fact that there was loss of life should not distract us from keeping our eye on the ball. The ball, in this instance, is our scientific approach to weather events.

As I have said before, we must work, deligently, to filter out the NEWS from the data of the storms. Property damage and loss of life is NEWS and should not become part of any scientific analysis of weather data.


Levi32

Arrgh!!

Got out my calculator and did the math...

150 kt = 172.61 mph

kt is not km....duh!!

Thanks for the rapid response.
Hurricane Camille was the third tropical cyclone and second hurricane of the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season. Camille was the second of three Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the United States during the 20th century, which it did near the mouth of the Mississippi River on the night of August 17, resulting in catastrophic damage. Camille was the only Atlantic hurricane with official winds reported to reach 190 mph until Allen equalled that number in 1980.

The storm formed on August 14 and rapidly deepened. It scraped the western edge of Cuba at Category 3 intensity. Camille strengthened further over the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall with a pressure of 905 mbar (hPa), estimated sustained winds of 200 mph (325 km/h), and a peak storm surge of 24 feet (7.3 m); by maximum sustained wind speeds, Camille was the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone recorded worldwide, and one of only four tropical cyclones worldwide ever to achieve wind speeds of 190 mph. The hurricane flattened nearly everything along the coast of the U.S. state of Mississippi, and caused additional flooding and deaths inland while crossing the Appalachian Mountains of Virginia. In total, Camille killed 259 people and caused $1.42 billion (1969 USD, $9.14 billion 2005 USD)

Making landfall as a Category 5 hurricane, Camille caused damage and destruction across much of the Gulf Coast of the United States. Because it moved quickly through the region, Hurricane Camille dropped only moderate precipitation in most areas. Most other areas reported from 1 to 6 inches.[citation needed] The area of total destruction in Harrison County, Mississippi was 68 square miles (176 km²).[3] The total estimated cost of damage was $1.42 billion (1969 USD, $9.14 billion 2005 USD).[2] This made Camille the second-most expensive hurricane in the United States, up to that point (behind Hurricane Betsy).[4] The storm directly killed 143 people along Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. An additional 153 people perished as a result of catastrophic flooding in Nelson County, Virginia and other areas nearby. In all, 8,931 people were injured, 5,662 homes were destroyed, and 13,915 homes experienced major damage, with many of the fatalities being coastal residents who had refused to evacuate.

Most intense landfalling U.S. hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure Rank Hurricane Season Landfall pressure
1 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
2 Camille 1969 909 mbar (hPa)
3 Katrina 2005 920 mbar (hPa)
4 Andrew 1992 922 mbar (hPa)
5 "Indianola" 1886 925 mbar (hPa)
6 "Florida Keys" 1919 927 mbar (hPa)
7 "Okeechobee" 1928 929 mbar (hPa)
8 Donna 1960 930 mbar (hPa)
9 "New Orleans" 1915 931 mbar (hPa)
Carla 1961 931 mbar (hPa)
Source: National Hurricane Center

Overall Source: Wikipedia


So how do we compare storms. Do we throw out all the deaths in Nelson Co. Va (20 miles give or take from where I sit) because it was totally a rain event and the ignorant hillbillies were all asleep in their beds, not to mention that their woefully inadequate infrastructure, inept local weather forecasters who failed to predict that a fast moving storm would stall over their mountains and valleys and lack of disaster planing all contributed to the magnitude of loss of life? Do we discount all the death and distraction in New Orleans since it was the result of an engineering, construction and maintenance snafu? Personally I think we admit that our numbers are interesting and perhaps informative but they never tell the whole story and go help pick up the pieces and bind up the wounds that we can.
An 80 MPH storm, Noel, managed to be labeled a 'deadly storm' because the infrastructure of the counties involved were woefully inept at preparing for and handling its presence. It was a rain event that killed those people and not the horrific winds...80 mph???

That is totally unfair... Most of the deaths in 2004 were from a storm that was only a depression by the time it reached Haiti - all of the other storms, even with the then-record damages (storms that hit the U.S. are almost always far more destructive in monetary terms, mainly because of the much higher wealth in the U.S.) were less deadly than Felix alone. Similarly, Hurricane Mitch was only an 80 mph hurricane by the time it made landfall; it didn't kill people because of its 180 mph peak winds, but because of rain. See this graph:



Wind was only the cause of 12% of the deaths; 71% were from water related causes and most of that from rainfall.
T-MINUS 72HRS 13 MIN remain of the
2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

we are a young specis we have much to learn
It was a rain event that killed those people and not the horrific winds...80 mph???

U are just as bad as the TWC...end of discussion. This season was no joke, maybe to the US, but not to me who lives in the action.
U are just as bad as the TWC...end of discussion. This season was no joke, maybe to the US, but not to me who lives in the action.

Even to the U.S. the season was not a joke. But 456, let's just leave the guy alone, he won't listen anyway.

That is totally unfair...

No kidding. We're gonna have to put up with this in 2008 as well, if there aren't 3 or more major hurricane U.S. landfalls by October.
Tropical Storm Guba sat off the coast of New Guinea for approximately 10 days - the enormous amount of rain flooded the Oro region and destroyed the livlihoods of approximately 100,000+ subsistence farmers. The Australian armed forces have given help to these people who came to the aid of our armed forces during WWII.

Also all credit to the US Navy for their efforts to help the people in Bangladesh.
I calculate it is about 5;00 AM in US - probably why blog is so quiet LOL - 8:00 PM here. Philippines is copping an absolute pounding with an Invest about 4 days away and an Magnitude 6.2 Earthquake. Vietnam is also having one hell of a time with continuous flooding over the past six weeks. Weather on East Coast of Australia is very weird/wet. Many places experiencing record November rainfall while we are in the middle of a once in a thousand year drought. This is mainly due to heavy thunderstorms which are quite patchy - on e town floods while the next town is parched. Hopefully this will help refresh the rivers though. Many farmers are doing it extremely tough!!
Good example of weird November Aussie weather

Link

morning folks. chilly here in the northeast. hope everyone has a good day
Gulf locals warned to prepare for cyclone season

Link
What a chilly morning in the Islands. The cold front pass well enough to our north to allow some of the cold air to reach us. This usually occurs twice a year...the last was in February. I hope we get more....its feels so refreshing from warm temps all year.
152. IKE
Check out the 0Z ECMWF for next week in the eastern US.......

Link

And good morning cyberspace.

65 hours, 45 minutes until the end of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.
geez thats a big system and another right behind it.
The UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
Gm to all,hey Ike,not sure what that link is but it locks up my browser and I have to kill it
Ok,ike,must be me,it I finally got it open.
Interesting storm track taking them on a westerly track.
Hey NE

yea IKEs link sure is ominous for us next week :/
As long as the storm track stays more west,it'll will make for more ice snow to rain type of storms.
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message

SW N ATLC...

A LARGE TROUGH WELL TO THE E OF THE AREA IS PROGRESSING WWD WITH
TIME. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALREADY
PRESENT TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS.

Waves starting Saturday, hopefully I'll still fit in my wetsuit....
very true NE. I would rather have snow then a ice event. Rain doesnt bother me either.

Groundswell glad to hear your getting some wave action
mornin'! Freeking BRRRRRRR!!!!! I just saw a caribou go down my street!
Big storms a coming! next few days are going to be kinda crazy, eh?
Links please! :) I wanna know what the smart kids are looking at!
Bone-water temp here is down to 68 which actually, in a full suit, is not bad..assuming the sun is out and the wind is light.
GM Lake,I had 6 wild turkeys in my yard this weekend.Animals must know something is coming.
Bone,as you indicated yesterday,I was looking at long range forecasts and December is looking very active and very wintery.Hold on to your hats,gloves,and snowblowers.
NE! LOL! were they shots or bottles! Creative way to keep warm! :0)
LOL,good one Lake,experts warn against drinking when you are going to be out in the cold,but I tend to disagree with that,I feel much warmer after a few shots.
yea the animals always know before we do.

Swell 68 LOL thats board short water temps. LOL water is down to 49 here.

Lake your mail made my laugh my butt off. He does sound like a TV weather guy. No clue unless his telepromter tells him. Even the Buf Met Off is forcasting snow, heck they have you under watches. Guess he doesn't belive them though.
Ne I call it like I see it. Even if it goes against the grain
Its funny, Bone. This is gonna be a fun winter for forecasting and challenging TV guys!
Good morning,

Only two more days left of this wonderful hurricane season. Looking back at all the forecasts by the people who have all the credentials shows that no one really understands enough about hurricane formation to make accurate forecasts. It doesnt surprise me just like the global warming and the related story here about the antartic. Everyone will come up with their own reasoning to show why these things are happening the way they are. Granted, we have come along way in forecasting out about 5 days but thats where it ends. Way too many variables that are constantly changing to be able to accurately forecast beyond that. All we can do is make generalizations which is what the Hurricane Forecast are.

What a beautiful November 28 day of 2007.

I never belive the TV guys. I rember back in 96 during the big blizzard the night it started the local TV actors were saying flurries with a chance for an inch or two while I am looking out the window at whiteout conditions with at least 3 inches already on the ground. We eventually got hit with 2 feet and I recall calling the sation and saying...

"Hi, can you let the weather guy know the the quote mark is inches the single one is feet!"
We eventually got hit with 2 feet and I recall calling the sation and saying...

"Hi, can you let the weather guy know the the quote mark is inches the single one is feet!"


lol! you gave him too much credit!
hehehe yea I know.


ooo just in as I type..

3.0 earthquake near Bakersfield Califonia
Mornin folks.....Bone, NE, Lake
Thanks, Dr. Masters for new report, and good morning, all!


141. ShenValleyFlyFish 4:27 AM GMT on November 28, 2007

Do we discount all the death and distraction in New Orleans since it was the result of an engineering, construction and maintenance snafu? Personally I think we admit that our numbers are interesting and perhaps informative but they never tell the whole story and go help pick up the pieces and bind up the wounds that we can.


....excellent post, excellent point!
North Sea oil platorm Thistle Alpha, with 159 people aboard, caught fire 120 miles northeast of Sumburgh in Shetland on Nov. 25. Evacuation of all but 43 essential personnel was carried out by helicopters. The fire was ultimately successfully extinguished.

Drilling platform Kab 121 caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico. Fire fighting boat tried to tackle the blaze


bad day on the water
Morning Baja
Mornin MLC..nice to see you

Bone? Are you tempting mother nature again? *laffs*
Don Paul Says: (tv weather guy)

The last model run I looked at showed winds coming around to 260 degrees on Friday, so unless there's a change in the morning run today (due out shortly), there's no sign the metro area is going to take a significant hit on Friday.

And, there's no sign we're going to be setting any records in the colder pattern, for reasons I've already detailed in earlier posts.
What model do you s'pose he's looking at, Bone?
no Baja. No tempting Momma
I belive its the model of the toliet water swirling around the bowl :o)

all the models I have looked at show a -20 to -30c cold air pool coming and also winds from the NW (280-310)
but of course with any of these storms,coastal secondary formation plays a big part in ptype
Buffalo Weather office statement for thurs/fri.:
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR STEERING WINDS FOR BAND LOCATIONS AND ORIENTATION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WINDS WILL BACK SOMEWHAT FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING.

Sounds like its gonna oscillate and bring snow to everybody.
Gm Storm,good analysis
Lake I just looked at the RUC and WRF models and he is correct about Friday not being anything major due to West winds with a slight southern componet to them. But after Friday all bets are off with the aproaching system. It will be all about the track. I am seeing tuesday as being on of the coldest of the season thus far.
Good Morning Storm, Sir.

great synopsis
What models, bone...gimme links!!!!
I needs me some links... gotta have the good stuff! come on Bone! Gimme links! I'm jonesing for links!
Brrrrrrr

Link
Model Page

There ya go Lake. Sorry I forgot the linky before :o)
Your Welcome Storm


cold day today
muchos gracias, Bone.
I have teenagers with me today so I must relinquish my computer. I'll catch y'all later.
Thanks again for the link. hmmm! Satisfying!
:o)
(now THATS a weather junkie talking!)
and it comes to a crashing hault LOL

I hate the slow times. makes work seem that much longer :o/
199. Bonedog 4:16 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
and it comes to a crashing hault LOL

I hate the slow times. makes work seem that much longer :o/

Yeh,makes you miss the in fighting during the tropical season.
What we need is a big coastal nor'easter.
there ya go NE now yer talking ;)
the latest run of the GFS does develope a coastal Low from the system on Monday
but non of the others do. I think the big thing for Monday will be just where the Low tracks. Eastern track we get dumped on, middle of the road break out the ice skates, western track umbrella time.
weather456 Re: Post 144

lindenii wrote:It was a rain event that killed those people and not the horrific winds...80 mph???

weather456 replied: U are just as bad as the TWC...end of discussion. This season was no joke, maybe to the US, but not to me who lives in the action.

***********

Am I missing something here? Isn't this a weather oriented blog with scientific underpinnings? What you are appearing to hint at is some sort of a handicap system for use when describing the activities of a Hurricane season. What does property damage or lives lost have to do with how hurricanes form or how we predict their actions?

Kind of like bowling leagues here in the US. Add pins to a persons score to equalize the scores. Handicaping might work well in a competitive environment, it does not work in any scientific venue; like this blog. It would only serve to confuse the records years from now when historians look at the records without all that excess baggage.

How can we be expected to decipher the huge amounts of data gathered during a hurricane season if we must wade through NEWS related spin along the way? Simply put, what you want is unscientific, nothing more, nothing less.
OK Friends and weather Experts.

What is the forcast for SE florida this weekend.
Want to go fishing, but if the waves are over 4 ft, I ain't going!
NoNamePub 11:51 AM CST on November 28, 2007

Link
Thanks !

looks Very Promissing!
Ill post some Pics if we catch anyhting!
For all interested, I have updated my site and will have a review of this hurricane season hopefully on Friday when hurricane season comes to an official close, although we know that nature sometimes does throw curveballs after the season.
Cool...good luck
good afternoon all,talking about going fishing sounds nice,when we in the northeast are going into hibernation.
Afternoon, NE.......fresh frozen? Although, I don't know whether that would be YOU...or the fish :))
Hi,Baja,have done some ice fishing in the past,and fresh frozen would be me.
LOL
Good Day to y'all. I hope you have plenty to smile about. I know I do 'cause there ain't no snow in my local forecast.lol
I saw an article lastnight about the lakes up there slow freezing, many not ready for ice fishing yet.

Lots of luck Pub.
Afternoon, flaboy (nice to see you this FINE SUNNY DAY ...hehe)
217. Skyepony 6:15 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
I saw an article lastnight about the lakes up there slow freezing, many not ready for ice fishing yet.

Lots of luck Pub.

October was so much above normal,even with recent cold weather,any ice if any is way too thin,but there will be some crazy people who will try to rush the season.
Thanks. (I guess some places it is and some places it isn't?)
Baja, I was looking at the UNYSIS link Patrap put up and it looks like the Delta is gonna get hit around the 7th, then the panhandle, and then my neck of the woods.
How cold do you all think it will get with this Arctic surge down here in South Florida? Thanks.
"Our 2007 seasonal hurricane forecast was not particularly successful. We anticipated an above-average season, and the season had activity at approximately average levels," Philip Klotzbach, Bill Gray and other CSU forecasters said in an end-of-season report on Tuesday. The CSU team had predicted there would be 17 storms this Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June to November.
NEwxguy~ Excactly, it was all about the don't rush out there & get yourself killed cause it's end of November, should be all good but it ain't.
I'll have to go back and look for the link...I missed that one
223. groundswell 1:25 PM EST on November 28, 2007
"Our 2007 seasonal hurricane forecast was not particularly successful. We anticipated an above-average season, and the season had activity at approximately average levels," Philip Klotzbach, Bill Gray and other CSU forecasters said in an end-of-season report on Tuesday. The CSU team had predicted there would be 17 storms this Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June to November.


For my part, I really wasn't disapponited by the "guests that failed to show up".lol
The link is a little ways down on pg 4
Hey guys and gals, here's an interesting link to get a great reference tool.

Link
Report: Global warming will cost Florida

BY MARY ELLEN KLAS
MiamiHerald.com

TALLAHASSEE -- Stopping global warming. The melting of the Greenland ice cap. The slide of coastal property into the sea.

It's all going to cost Floridians a lot of money, but doing nothing will only cost more.

That is the conclusion of a report released Wednesday by Environmental Defense, a Washington, D.C.-based advocacy group. The report was compiled by Tufts University researchers.

If Florida and the globe continue business as usual, the report predicts, by 2050 tourism will decline, sea levels will rise 23 inches, insurance and electricity prices will soar and the economic cost to the state will be $92 billion.

''We're on an escalator that's headed down,'' said Frank Ackerman, an author of the report. ``The status quo is not an option that is going to continue.''

Another report, released two weeks ago by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and paid for by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, sends out a different warning. If Florida adopts policies pushed by Gov. Charlie Crist to meet his climate change projections -- such as lowering greenhouse gas emissions to 2000 levels by 2017 and 1990 levels by 2025 -- every Florida household could see costs increase 82 percent by 2020.

What's worse, says the report written by economists at CRA International, ''a massive change in Florida emissions only leads to a small global change,'' the report said. ``No matter how well policies are designed, there will be a significant overall cost to Florida of meeting the caps.''

The dueling reports are the first salvos in an emerging war over the cost of slowing global warming. House Speaker Marco Rubio raised the specter of the legislative fight to come when the House sponsored a daylong climate change summit in October that focused on the science and cost of the issue.

It's a battle that's already brewing in other states and Washington, D.C., where the issues have been discussed longer.

''This is where we see the debate going in Tallahassee and it's our organization's way of saying we're not going to cede an inch of ground on this issue of cost,'' said Jerry Karnas, Florida project director for Environmental Defense.

The report, Florida: The Costs of Inaction, was several months in the making, Ackerman said. It was launched before Crist issued his executive order in July directing the state to adopt tough new carbon dioxide emissions standards to reverse the impact of global warming by 2020. It is patterned after a similar report Ackerman and colleagues did for Britain last year.

By contrast, the chamber report, Economic Analysis of Florida's Executive Order, is in response to the governor's initiatives -- and the brewing concern among fiscal conservatives that if the governor's standards are enacted, the technology won't be available to make it economically feasible for industry to adapt.

The chamber report also notes that ''unlike other pollutants, greenhouse gases have no local effect'' and even though Florida produces 1 percent of the world's pollutants, ``it is far too small for Florida acting alone to have a measurable impact on climate.''

Ackerman disagrees. ''There's a problem of collective action,'' he said. ``We are all hostage to everyone else's good intentions. Florida is 1 percent of global emissions but, combine it with California and a number of other states and you could have a real momentum for seeing change spread more broadly. You can't conclude that it's not worth starting.''

The report clearly attempts to send a message of dread if Florida chooses to sit it out. It is chock full of grim scenarios like these:

• If sea level rises 23 inches by 2050, all but six square miles of Monroe County will be swamp and 70 percent of Miami-Dade.

• That means residential real estate, now valued at over $130 billion, will be affected, so will half of Florida's beaches, two nuclear reactors and 99 percent of all mangroves.

• Average annual temperatures will rise 2.5 degrees by 2025 and 5 degrees by 2050.

• The warmer climate will make Florida less attractive to tourists year-round, resulting in a $9 billion decline in tourism by 2025 and $40 billion by mid-century.

• Hurricanes will be more intense, resulting in more damage and higher costs -- estimated at $25 billion by 2050 -- and the cause of 19 additional deaths.

If Florida ''achieves its ambitious target of 80 percent reduction in emissions by 2050, and the rest of the world follows suit with significant and immediate action,'' the outcome will be less severe, the report claims. For example, temperature will increase only 1.1 degrees by 2050 and .6 degrees by 2025 and sea level will rise only 1.8 inches by 2025 and 3.5 inches by 2050.

Meanwhile, support is growing for Florida regulators to impose some kind of guidelines on the state to reverse the release of pollutants into the air. At its last meeting, the Florida Energy Commission adopted a recommendation to set greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets but pushed them back three years later than Crist's, to provide more time to add nuclear generation to Florida's energy mix and to get the technology in place to make biomass and solar energy more affordable.

''Florida's current energy situation didn't materialize overnight,'' commission chairman Tommy Boroughs said last week. ``It's not realistic to think we can change it overnight. But with a strategic approach, public participation and advances in energy technology, we can change it in ways that will benefit Florida's economy and environment.''

Reports next week will include Chicken Little's estimations of the cost of the sky falling and Little Bow Peep's report on the cost of livestock lost while farmers sleep.
229. MisterPerfect 1:57 PM EST on November 28, 2007
Report: Global warming will cost Florida

BY MARY ELLEN KLAS
MiamiHerald.com


GOOD BL***Y GRIEF !!!! Thank The Lord this didn't happen in the thirties and the fifties, etc. when the climate changed worldwide.(as reported by the press back then)
What we need to do is get the space shuttle to carry up and install a mylar cover above the earth in a geosyncronous orbit, that is coated with an aluminum skin to always face the sun and reflect a portion of the solar radiation away from the earth. Sounds like a plan to me. (And it's the only way one or two countries on the planet will change things much alone. And we will be alone, as none of the developing nations will give up a chance to improve the standard of living for their own people.)once again he trips and falls off of his soapbox
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message

A BROAD TROUGH ALONG 50W IS MOVING SLOWLY W. THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT
WITH HIGH PRES ALREADY ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO MAINTAIN PRES
GRADIENT E OF THE BAHAMAS

Good enough for some rideable energy for the southeast coast. Nothing like that first rinse of the day on the way out.
lindenii "How can we be expected to decipher the huge amounts of data gathered during a hurricane season if we must wade through NEWS related spin along the way? Simply put, what you want is unscientific, nothing more, nothing less."

Quite correct.
Jupiter wind speeds were measured at 192 mph at eight miles above the cloud tops, 232mph at the cloud tops, 293 mph at seven miles down, 313mph at 10miles down, 360 mph at 17 miles down, and ~391mph from 28 miles down to the end of measurement at 60 miles.
That's ~8times as powerful as the strongest sustained winds of puny Earth hurricanes.
Atmospheric pressures were measured from half Earth's atmospheric pressure at sea level (0.5bars) at the top, to 21 times Earth's (21bars) at the lowest level.
Temperatures ranged from -230degreesFahrenheit at the top to 306degreesFahrenheit at the lowest level.
So I really don't know why a scientificly minded person such as yourself should waste his time hanging around folks who care about how cyclones affect people.
good afternoon to all
Nexsat Cloud props image showing the cold front over the NW Atlantic and the area of disturbed weather in the bottom right corner

Howdy 456. I know you have arrived bearing some needed sanity back to the blog.

The UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
Pat, you are the man!
flaboyinga, hello to you too
Tonights weather for Seattle:

The high tech witch doctors don't have a clue. Something will come down. The freezing level maybe about 1500 so it should rain. Or it will drop to 300 and most the area get 6 to 12" of snow. Thats a big difference. Even by tomorrow they will not be able to predict was it does tonight. Where is this rumored global warming with this being the second snow for Puget sound in Nov.??? I would love to move to Florida even in 2050 when it will be warmer. Better than being traped in the glacer for the coming ice age. Global warming yields ice age, I don't understand either.

Freezing in Seattle

204. lindenii 12:47 PM EST on November 28, 2007
Am I missing something here? Isn't this a weather oriented blog with scientific underpinnings?


Besides a heart you mean? LOL

Most folks tend to demand of science some utilitarian outcomes. As I attempted to show with my Camille post, wind/pressure numbers are not all that useful in predicting total impact on environment or human population. Camille had 2nd highest numbers ever but from what you call "news" statistics other than wiping out a few hillbillies and swamp-rats, it didn't amount to much.

You seem to not realize that your initial post with it's denigration of the Yucatan hits is as value laden as the one you were remarking on. I think that is what folks are reacting to.
Can anyone answer my question above regarding the temps here in South Florida after this Arctic blast makes it here? Thanks.
Hey just fyo post #241

I lived through camille camping in the applications. With all the trees falling around the tent and the water rising was shall we exciting.. Too bad that back then there was no way to know it was coming. At least today, thanks to sites like this we can track the storms and if they come our way, make our own decision to pack up and leave. Those that are too dumb to leave, well that is the process of natural selection. And while I now live in Wash. state, I am one of those hillbillys you mentioned.
240. O2AN702AF 2:56 PM EST on November 28, 2007

Witch Doctors have always been about having power and influence over how people live their daily lives. Seems obvious doesn't it. The countries behind the Iron Curtain were supposed to be the best environments for people in the world (according to certain schools of thought). When the walls went down the world found environmental disasters on a scale we hadn't seen before. Oh well. I'm still very sure who set it all up and who will set it all straight.
Hi, Shen.
I'm gonna improve things and go back to lurking for a whole. I leave things in a lot of capable hands.BBL.
Surface pressures are ridiculously low over the Southern Amazon Basin. Pressures range from 965 to 997 mb. These observations indicate the Chaco heat low is developing. The low is key component of the South American Monsoon System.
Poets.....for the End of da season..

Link
On the way out I gotta do this one more time. And it is weather related, too.

Link
The disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic looks to have some circulation associated with it at the middle and upper levels. Showers and storms have been firing throughout the day, so this looks like an area of interest at this time. To me, it looks like shear may be decreasing in the area as well. Got to watch this area. Anybody interested in this feature?
250. cchsweatherman 8:23 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
The disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic looks to have some circulation associated with it at the middle and upper levels. Showers and storms have been firing throughout the day, so this looks like an area of interest at this time. To me, it looks like shear may be decreasing in the area as well. Got to watch this area. Anybody interested in this feature?

The odds of any development of any kind are very very low in the basin.Will have to wait another 6-7 months before we see anything out there. Adrian
South American Monsoon System



242. cchsweatherman 8:06 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
Can anyone answer my question above regarding the temps here in South Florida after this Arctic blast makes it here? Thanks.

You can get South Florida weather on my website anytime feel free to use the pages ive made.

www.Adrian's Weather.com
Why dont we track asteroids in space?
Outflow is controlled by the Bolivian High. Its cousins are the Tibetan High of the Asian Monsoon, and the Monsoon Ridge of the North American Monsoon (over the Desert Southwest).

There is also a small one over Australia and Africa. The largest by far is the massive Tibetan High over the Tibetan Plateau with the Himalayas bordering the south side of the plateau.

254. hurricane23 4:44 PM AST on November 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
Why dont we track asteroids in space?


how? Is there a website, software, or something?
If showers continue with the Central Atlantic mid-upper tropospheric low, there could be some subtropical development. I say subtropical because the greatest vertical velocity is near 450 mb (round off to 500 mb) which is the mid troposphere and because of the vertical wind shear. Most of the convection is in the form of elevated convection.
256. Weather456 3:52 PM EST on November 28, 2007
254. hurricane23 4:44 PM AST on November 28, 2007
Why dont we track asteroids in space?

how? Is there a website, software, or something?



Try this.

Link
256. Weather456 8:52 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
254. hurricane23 4:44 PM AST on November 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
Why dont we track asteroids in space?

how? Is there a website, software, or something?

It was a joke buddy....

Hows everything with you?I for one will be putting 100% effort in finishing up my degree and a few projects i have during this offseason.I'll be chatting with beven in a few weeks or so at the NHC and look forward to getting some video of my visit there.

Hope everyone has a fantastic weekned which is once again right around the corner. Adrian

243. O2AN702AF 3:07 PM EST on November 28, 2007
Hey just fyo post #241

I lived through camille camping in the applications. With all the trees falling around the tent and the water rising was shall we exciting.. Too bad that back then there was no way to know it was coming. At least today, thanks to sites like this we can track the storms and if they come our way, make our own decision to pack up and leave. Those that are too dumb to leave, well that is the process of natural selection. And while I now live in Wash. state, I am one of those hillbillys you mentioned.


Me too. Went over and tried to help pick up the pieces afterwards. Going down to Nelson this evening to pick a little music.

You have to have been following the whole thread to make sense of the post and I apologize if I offended you. I was attempting to get lindenii to see how offensive his post have appeared to someone from Yucatan.

The thread has run on long enough. I am going to let it drop.
hurricane23,

I'm doing fine. When you visit the NHC could you document their operations. Like how they gather data to put into the Computer models and such.
261. Weather456 9:00 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
hurricane23,

I'm doing fine. When you visit the NHC could you document their operations. Like how they gather data to put into the Computer models and such.

Yep i will do....Beven is a funny guy and has a great personality.Not sure if you have heard the video from ED on the 2007 season?You should hear its interesting.
NWS COASTAL WX DISCUSSION (with my comments in parenthesis):

...EXCEPT FOR WINDS SOUTHWEST WINDS THU THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THU NIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE EAST AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS MAY REACH 6 FEET THU AND THU NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP (waves rideable) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

259. hurricane23 3:57 PM EST on November 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
256. Weather456 8:52 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
254. hurricane23 4:44 PM AST on November 28, 2007
Why dont we track asteroids in space?

how? Is there a website, software, or something?

It was a joke buddy....
'


You got me good that time. LOL
The convection at 50W is interesting...there is some decreasing shear over it, but right now if anything to form anytime this year it would most likely be in the north atlantic where shear is the lowest.

I showed Hubby the charts for TD Mitag, TD25 and TD26 and asked him to guess where TD26 is. (Incase you haven't peeked, that chart is all black except for the blue dot showing the TD.) He looked at it quizzically and quipped, "Outer space?"

THEN I saw:
254. hurricane23 8:44 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
Why dont we track asteroids in space?


ROFL!
ROFLOL Listener!
BTW did anyone ever come up with an answer to MichaelSTL's observation that Antartica has warmed dramatically this year according to the map he provided? Well forgive me if someone has already solved the mystery, but I just happened to notice a couple things in the Dr's entry:

"Antarctic cooling
What is significant is the fact that most of Antarctica cooled in recent decades (Figure 3). For example, the surface temperature at the South Pole cooled 0.05° C between 1980 and 1999 (Kwok and Comiso, 2002). However, the majority of Antarctica has shown no statistically significant warming over the past 50 years (Turner et al., 2005)--the cooling has just been over the past 25-30 years. In the period 2004-2007, much of the Antarctic warmed (Figure 4). Why did Antarctica cool between 1982 and 2004 if there was global warming going on?

Well, the globe, on average, has warmed about 1.1° F (0.65° C) in the 50 years ending in 2005 (IPCC, 2007). Given that there is a lot of natural variability in the climate, it should be expected that some areas of the globe would not see warming, given the relatively modest magnitude of global warming thus far.

Figure 3. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1982 and 2004. Much of Antarctica cooled during this period. Image credit: IPCC The Physical Science Basis, Figure 3.32.

Figure 4. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1981 and 2007. Note that the cooling trend observed from 1982-2004 has reversed, thanks to warming in the past few years."


Sounds like the answer was in the blog the whole time to me. Sorry if this was already brought up but I just noticed it.
ShenValleyFlyFish Re:Post 241

Over the years that I have watched the wunderground, the one thing I noticed was that it tended toward a scientific approach to the weather. Consequently, my comments were based on the assumption that most of those individuals who came to this blog were scientifically oriented as well.

Your mention of the individual from the Yucatan being bothered by my comments mystifies me. Am I mistaken or wasn't Noel barely a CAT 1? And it never came close to the Yucatan, correct?

My comments were originally in response to the comments regarding Noel and its supposed dangerousness; when, in fact, the deaths were not caused by its intensity but by the rain it brought and the landslides the rain caused.

My comments later were related to the discussion that the ACE for 2007 was so small that it made 2007 more of a kitten than a tiger as some had wanted to label it as being. If I remember correctly, I compared it to 2005 and the ACE generated that year. And those comments were precipitated by the claim that wanted to include the collateral damage that occurred into the mix of how the 2007 hurricane season would be described.

Isn't our goal on this blog to try to help develope ways to not only predict the formation of a hurricane and its intensity; but also, to more accurately predict the path once formed. Isn't our goal also to develope techniques that can give us a more accurate prediction of future tropical seasons?

It is my belief that there is someone among us today who will be instrumental in creating the algorhythm that will give us that ability. Let us not throw distractions in that persons path by lamenting what happened after a hurricane strikes and then insisting that those laments be included in the data as if it were a contributing facter in the formation and subsequent activity. Otherwise, we do ourselves and the victims a great disservice

Are we wannabe scientists or are we tabloid wonks? I like the sound of scientist, don't you?
Levi32 "BTW did anyone ever come up with an answer to MichaelSTL's observation that Antartica has warmed dramatically this year according to the map he provided?"

Ozone is a strong greenhouse gas. As the hole in the ozone layer over the SouthPole diminishes, a greater amount of heat radiating from the surface is reflected back down.
Since less heat is escaping into space, Antarctica is getting warmer.

hurricane23 "Why don't we track asteroids in space?"

hrrrm... This is s'poseta be a meteorology site, and nary a mention of meteors.
To put it another way.

Attempting to link the damages and injuries incurred during this 2007 Hurricane season to a description of what type of season we had, calling it 'deadly' or 'as predicted' is nothing more than an attempt to sensationalize an otherwise non-descript season.

We have a choice to make. Is it more tabloid wonk or is it scientific?
270. aspectre 11:39 PM GMT on November 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
Levi32 "BTW did anyone ever come up with an answer to MichaelSTL's observation that Antartica has warmed dramatically this year according to the map he provided?"

Ozone is a strong greenhouse gas. As the hole in the ozone layer over the SouthPole diminishes, a greater amount of heat radiating from the surface is reflected back down.
Since less heat is escaping into space, Antarctica is getting warmer.


I know all that :P. When MichaelSTL brought it up, he was saying that it contradicted what Dr. Masters was saying about the Antarctic cooling. Therefore the validity of the data was in question. I was just clearing that part of it up.
An upper low drawing moisture into the Desert Southwest and a vigorous winter storm over the Pacific Northwest.

T-MINUS 47 HRS 40 MIN GMT remain of the
2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
269. lindenii

Enough, Uncle!

We have flogged this poor horse to death.
Levi32 "When MichaelSTL brought it up, he was saying that it contradicted what Dr. Masters was saying about the Antarctic cooling."

I don't remember figure4 and the paragraph starting with "Another possibility, favored by climate modelers..." as being up when MichaelSTL posted the 2006-2007 chart. Not that my memory is infallible.
But I do remember writing a long response to him -- which I wouldn't have if I could have just pointed figure4&etc out to him -- then giving up in frustration after accidentally deleting it before posting. By the time I got back into the mood, the conversation had drifted far away.
I coulda just somehow skipped over it, as could have he.

Either way, MichaelSTL said, "Either there is some seriously messed up data (from here), or the past year has been quite different from recent years past."

Note the "Either...or..." And there certainly has been a major shift in the direction that the temperature has been heading in the last two or three years.
later all
This video was taken from a security camera at the base of a television transmitter in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana August 29th,2005

Storm Surge Video


Link
275. ShenValleyFlyFish 7:36 PM EST on November 28, 2007
269. lindenii

Enough, Uncle!

We have flogged this poor horse to death.



Geez, and before I got a chance to get my few licks in . . . u guys are SO wrong . . .

LOL

Evening everybody. I'm hard at work but skimming the day's comments with interest.

I still believe (and obviously the record has proven again and again) that a large, slow-moving, wet storm can be as dangerous in its own way as a high-powered major category storm. Our challenge as meteorologists and related enthusiasts is not only to advance our understanding of what fuels and drives these systems, but also to ensure that people in the path of such systems have as clear and accurate an idea as possible of what the dangers are so they can be mitigated against.

We cannot dismiss the fact that one of the parameters used in the past to define "bad" storms HAS been loss of life. I don't think downplaying the effects of storms on people is any more useful in the long run than hyperbolizing them. We saw this several times this year - TS Erin, Hurricane Noel, the unnamed system that killed over 100 in Pakistan - in each case people were not made aware of the effects or the potential effects were downplayed. This is one reason why I don't think referring to these storms as part of the measure of the season is wrong.

The reality is that storms have meaning to the bulk of us because they have the power [potentially] to radically impact our lives. How radical the impact is, however, shouldn't depend on the quality of the information disseminated. This means we need to be refining our ability to inform the public in ways that are clear to them, using parameters that are broader simply how strong winds are. This is certainly a part of our science.
Anybody have a link to a photograph of the triple depressions?
277. aspectre 1:27 AM GMT on November 29, 2007
Levi32 "When MichaelSTL brought it up, he was saying that it contradicted what Dr. Masters was saying about the Antarctic cooling."

I don't remember figure4 and the paragraph starting with "Another possibility, favored by climate modelers..." as being up when MichaelSTL posted the 2006-2007 chart. Not that my memory is infallible.
But I do remember writing a long response to him -- which I wouldn't have if I could have just pointed figure4&etc out to him -- then giving up in frustration after accidentally deleting it before posting. By the time I got back into the mood, the conversation had drifted far away.
I coulda just somehow skipped over it, as could have he.

Either way, MichaelSTL said, "Either there is some seriously messed up data (from here), or the past year has been quite different from recent years past."

Note the "Either...or..." And there certainly has been a major shift in the direction that the temperature has been heading in the last two or three years.


UGH, how clear to I have to be? lol. MichaelSTL made a comment about either the data was bad or this year was different. I'm just confirming and clarifying that the past 2-3 years WERE different. That's all!!! LOL. I'm done ok?
BahaHurican Re: Post # 280

Very nicely stated and I agree with most of what you have written.

When you wrote, "We cannot dismiss the fact that one of the parameters used in the past to define "bad" storms HAS been loss of life. I don't think downplaying the effects of storms on people is any more useful in the long run than hyperbolizing them. We saw this several times this year - TS Erin, Hurricane Noel, the unnamed system that killed over 100 in Pakistan - in each case people were not made aware of the effects or the potential effects were downplayed. This is one reason why I don't think referring to these storms as part of the measure of the season is wrong."

**************

There is a point that I would like to evaluate for a moment.

One of the ways that we learn new things about any particular subject is to research what has been done before. Watching my son research the environment of South Florida and the exterpation of various species of plants and animals, I can speak first hand that having to wade through superfluous commentary can be very frustrating. Why? Because it is such a waste of time.

In the case of hurricanes, yes news of the collateral damage is an important tool for demonstrating to a group of 'doubting Thomases' that they should be prepared for an encounter with a hurricane. Focus on the word...news

Rather than stick our heads in the sand, so as to avoid the truth that in many cases, it truly is the ineffective infrastructure that causes much of the losses. For example, excessive damage was caused by Hurricane Andrew. In response, Florida rewrote the building code for areas prone to exposure to hurricanes. My home serves as a good example of what those changes mean.

The concrete block walls have every third vertical course reinforced with re-bar and concrete. The tie-downs keeping the roof to the walls is double what they once were. All my windows and doors are rated to 125+MPH except for my garage doors which are rated to 155MPH. Incidentally, the newer codes now require 135mph+ rating for doors and windows, as well as storm shutters.

Prior to Andrew, the infrastructure was ineffective and, to their credit, they did indeed beef up building codes. In other words, they learned from their mistakes and did what was necessary to help prevent it from happening again. What is wrong with expecting others to do the same?

Likewise, we should refrain from 'hyperbolizing', as you put it, that same information when discussing the scientific aspects of same.

If you were gathering data on tropical weather patterns for the last century, wouldn't you rather see notations at the end of various publications that told you where to look for the toll of the aftermath of those years of interest? Or would you rather read headlines shouting alarming news about a given season, only to find that, indeed, the damage was done by hardly more than a glorifed thunderstorm?

All I am saying is that we have an obligation to keep the NEWS separate from the scientific analysis, so that we do not mingle the two and lose sight of what we are discussing.
284. IKE
43 hours....26 minutes left of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.
4-panel WV Loop, Zoom to Se La. Link
I see the term "Climate skeptics" in Jeff's post. I assume that's short for someone who's skeptical that humans are the cause of dangerous global warming. From what I have been reading that’s a growing number of scientists in many fields, but most prominently those who study the interaction of the Sun and climate. They point to the last 8 years of steady, and some now say, dropping temperatures as evidence we are entering a cooling phase, maybe similar to the little ice age.

Even if the little ice age was not a global phenomena, it certainly effected North America and Europe, the very place where much of the world’s food is grown. If warming is dangerous, cooling would be catastrophic. If whatever caused the little ice age is becoming active again, human activity that brightens the surface of the Earth (farming) and increases the reflectivity of the atmosphere (air pollution) will exacerbate the cooling. The hope is that all the CO2 humans have pumped into the atmosphere will mitigate the cooling.

Until we understand what causes periodic cooling phases, such as the little ice age, we don’t know if cutting CO2 emissions is the right thing to do. We need lots more research into all aspects of Earth’s climate and labeling people Skeptics and even Deniers is both arrogant and myopic.
Good morning all!
Going to be a long winter season!!!
Good Morning,

Here is a link of an article out of the Orlando Sentinel that speaks about the 2007 Hurricane season that is about to end. Similar to my comments yesterday, it talks about the need for these forecasts and the damage they cause by negatively scaring away perspective tourist.

Link
Hello, I have been standing in the shadows for a few years never really said anything. I just like to read the Blog and learn a thing or 2. Question that gets me the most was awhile back when they said the season was gonna be warmer than avg./drier this season in some locations. Problem they are correct SE side of the US. But the rest begs to be different. I mean look at the hurricanes season.. Guess we can say we can't guess always what mother nature has plan. figured I would say a thing or 2.
"His (Shackleton) voyage to find help using an open boat in winter on the storm-tossed Scotia Sea may rank as the greatest navigation feat of all time."

While I will always defer to the good Doctors' meteorological judgement, I must respectfully disagree with his maritime naviational judgement...

The greatest navigation feat of all time was Captain Bligh's safe return to Tahiti aboard the Bounty's tender after the mutiny....

although he is correct on one point: The story of Shackleton and his men is a hell of a tale...
With all of the talk about how forecasts busted this season, I still think it is mostly because not much happened to the U.S.; as somebody else said on another site regarding this article:

If the two cat 5's both made landfall in the U.S. this article would not have been written.


Also, Gray seems confused as to why La Nina apparantly didn't help the season that much, if at all; why didn't he mention the near-record low global tropical cyclone activity? IMO, La Nina actually prevented an even less active season goven the global supression, as happened in 1977, which had less than half the activity (either in storm numbers or ACE, which resulted in record low activity worldwide). Also, stronger La Ninas may not be good for hurricane activity, as stated by turtlehurricane (an intern at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division):

I agree, the difference between a weak La-Nina and a stronger one is alot. I think a moderate-strong La-Nina is actually not as favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the atlantic as a weaker one, despite increased hits. I'll get the stats later.

Indeed; check out 1973 - super strong La Nina (peaked at a record -2.0):

1973 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed: July 1, 1973
Last storm dissipated: October 27, 1973
Strongest storm: Ellen - 962 mbar (28.41 inHg), 115 mph (185 km/h)
Total storms: 8
Major storms (Cat. 3 ): 1

Total damage: $18 million (1973 USD)
$79.5 million (2005 USD)
Total fatalities: 15

ACE (104kt2) %u2013 Storm: Source
1 12.7 Ellen
2 6.73 Alice
3 5.81 Christine
4 5.34 Fran
5 4.18 Gilda
6 3.97 Delia
7 3.90 Brenda
8 0.000 Alfa
Total= 60.9 (61)


Also interesting (and this is no surprise at all to me) is that the Atlantic was much colder than in previous years (1995-2006); the AMO index was also a lot lower as well; the correlation between the AMO/SSTs and Atlantic activity is very strong (2005, with the highest SSTs ever recorded was no surprise):

Blog's acting up. Wrong entry for this site on main blog-list.
NASA Home > Mission Sections > Hurricanes > Archives > 2007

FEATURE
Forests Damaged by Hurricane Katrina Become Major Carbon Source

Link


NASA Hurricane Resource Page
Link

I don't know if this article was posted already. Sorry if it is a repeat:


Decisions to name storms draw concern
As season ends
, some say center rushes to classify, which costs you:

With another hurricane season set to end this Friday, a controversy is brewing over decisions of the National Hurricane Center to designate several borderline systems as tropical storms.

Some meteorologists, including former hurricane center director Neil Frank, say as many as six of this year's 14 named tropical systems might have failed in earlier decades to earn "named storm" status.


Re: 293
seems to be fixed now
maybe it's an oceanic temperature balance enhanced by Global Warming. Just a guess...
Barry and I believe Chantalle were subtropical storms
299. GBlet
Good Morning everyone. Maybe today I will rely on whatever my tea leaves and scattered chicken bones have to tell me, because the local forecast has changed a dozen times over the last few days and it is driving me insane! Does anyone out there have any better insight to the weekend storm system over Kansas?
afternoon folks
298. weatherbro 11:58 AM CST on November 29, 2007
Barry and I believe Chantalle were subtropical storms



With another hurricane season set to end this Friday, a controversy is brewing over decisions of the National Hurricane Center to designate several borderline systems as tropical storms.


2005 likely wouldn't of set a new record number of storms if the NHC hadn't named a lot of the weaker storms... then I don't see anybody here debating on that... they also even had the nerve to call storms which were analysed as being initially subtropical after the fact as purely tropical during the season (mainly the late season storms, Vince, Delta, etc).
Good afternoon to all.
Has anyone noticed the very unusual hyperactivity going on in the ITCZ? What is happening that is causing this tremendous shower and thunderstorm activity? Is it a favorable MJO oscillation or what? I will watch this area.
The feature in the Central Atlantic still looks interesting. Combine this with the activity in the ITCZ and it makes for several questions since activity like this is unusual for this time of year.
Hey NE
Hey Bone
Get bored here come throw your hat in my ring ;-)
Hey,bone,slow day on the blog
yea It is. Ready for Sunday nights storm? The coastal low is forcasted to develope right over you :) All models in agreement so I have to believe it
Here in the SW, there is a low pulling a tremendous amount of moisture up from the Pacific. The sky is really hazy and the air feels like it would near the beach....unusually humid and thick.
thats the Low that is forcasted to head up to New England for Sunday and develope itself into a coastal low
Has anyone noticed the very unusual hyperactivity going on in the ITCZ? What is happening that is causing this tremendous shower and thunderstorm activity? Is it a favorable MJO oscillation or what? I will watch this area.

The feature in the Central Atlantic still looks interesting. Combine this with the activity in the ITCZ and it makes for several questions since activity like this is unusual for this time of year.
Im ready,just sounds like its going to be messy,a little snow alittle ice, and then some rain,and then the cold comes rushing in behind it
cch the mjo is negative right now




Yea NE its going to be dicey. The farther inland you are the more snow but there is a strip that may see ice accumulation.

I have been watching the models and checking the thermal profiles. Gonna be a close one.
Well then what is causing the ITCZ to become so active now if it is not the MJO?
313. Bonedog 1:05 PM CST on November 29, 2007
cch the mjo is negative right now


315. cchsweatherman 2:08 PM EST on November 29, 2007
Well then what is causing the ITCZ to become so active now if it is not the MJO?


Blue on that chart indicates conditions that enhance convection, which includes the Atlantic (if you look at September, it was unfavorable, possibly a factor in supressing activity).
Good Afternoon all! Is anyone out there will be here after 2morrow Gods Willing.
Its the spring time in the southern hem and the ITCZ is on its way across the equator so it could be getting daytime heating from there and with a strong Jetstreak to its north cause divergance.

The bulk of activity is below 10N most is centered right on 0 so no worries there. The spot in the Catl is under anywhere between 20 knots to its west 30-40 over it and 60-70 knt shear to its east so nothing to worry about there either
315. cchsweatherman 3:09 PM AST on November 29, 2007 Hide this comment.
Well then what is causing the ITCZ to become so active now if it is not the MJO?


Another factor is increase trade convergence from the Northern Hemisphere. They are referred to as surges. During the passage of numerous cold fronts accompanied by strong high pressure ridge which generated above normal trade wind velocity which then converge into the ITCZ.
Big earthquake just occurred in the Caribbean:

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
308 PM AST THU NOV 29 2007

...A STRONG EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED BUT A TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO/ THE VIRGIN SLANDS/ U.S. ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO STATES/ AND EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...

NO - REPEAT NO - WARNING OR WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THE EARTHQUAKE WITHIN THE EARTH A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE PUERTO RICO/ VIRGIN ISLANDS/ U.S. ATLANTIC/ EASTERN CANADIAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COASTS. AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE EXPERIENCED STRONG
GROUND SHAKING LOCAL TSUNAMIS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UNDERWATER LANDSLIDES.

AT 300 PM ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME ON NOVEMBER 29 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 7.3 OCCURRED
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CARIBBEAN SEA.

Jeff Masters
Magnitude 7.3
Date-Time Thursday, November 29, 2007 at 19:00:19 UTC
Thursday, November 29, 2007 at 03:00:19 PM at epicenter

Location 14.921°N, 61.264°W
Depth 145.4 km (90.4 miles)
Region MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
Distances 21 km (13 miles) NW (322°) from Le Morne-Rouge, Saint-Pierre, Martinique
22 km (14 miles) NNW (336°) from Saint-Pierre, Saint-Pierre, Martinique
23 km (14 miles) WNW (296°) from Le Lorrain, La Trinité, Martinique
41 km (25 miles) NNW (331°) from FORT-DE-FRANCE, Martinique
269 km (167 miles) NW (319°) from BRIDGETOWN, Barbados

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles); depth +/- 6.9 km (4.3 miles)
Parameters Nst=137, Nph=137, Dmin=267.4 km, Rmss=0.8 sec, Gp= 50°,
M-type=moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2007kha5
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message

BROAD TROUGH E OF THE AREA FROM 28N49W TO 21N54W TO 12N55W MOVING W
5-10 KT. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRES ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF THE BAHAMAS. FRESH NE
WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS W OF TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY W...MOVING
INTO SW PORTION OF THE ZONE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN.

nice weekend coming up, with cold front swinging out on Sunday, spray off the tops is a possibility.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the breaking info. At least I don't have to worry about a tsunami here in Florida. LOL. Hope it did not cause any deaths in the islands.

Also, thanks for answering my questions. That is why I come here first to have my questions answered so that I may continue to learn more about the weather, particularly the tropics.

To answer your question 456, I will be here after the hurricane season ends, most likely talking about US weather and any international stories that may come up. How about you?
O My.....I didn't even felt it.
The strong MJO activity recently is also giving La Nina a clobbering:



Notice the westerly winds in the West Pacific. Usually, MJO activity is weak during La Ninas and strong during El Ninos, possibly suggesting that changes may be coming (persistant strong MJO activity also often starts 6-12 months prior to an El Nino). Indeed, atmospheric circulation has already shifted from La Nina into an weak El Nino-like state, for the first time in almost a year:




The four primary phases of the GWO are described below, along with generally cold season (November-March) probable weather impacts for the USA. The GWO recurrence interval, or "time it takes to make a circuit", ranges from a broad 15-80 days. Two of the stages project strongly on El Nino and La Nina circulation states, which are also characterized by positive (Stage 3) and negative (Stage 1) global AAM anomalies, respectively. Stages 2 and 4 are transitional.

Stage 1 (La-Nina like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is negative. The negative anomaly is primarily due to easterly upper level wind anomalies that extend from the Eastern Hemisphere tropics to the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes. A retracted Pacific Ocean jet stream is a key feature in the total field. Troughs are probable across the western USA with a ridge over the southeast. High impact weather is favored across the Plains.

Stage 2 – the global relative AAM tendency is positive. This means that negative AAM is being removed from the atmosphere by surface friction and mountains. At the same time, westerly wind anomalies are intensifying in equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. Fast Rossby wave dispersion events in both hemispheres are a coherent feature of this stage and Stage 4. A cold regime is probable across the central USA.

Stage 3 (El-Nino like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is positive. Westerly wind anomalies move into the Eastern Hemisphere, broaden in latitudinal extent and link up with deep westerly flow anomalies over the mid-latitude Western Hemisphere. An extended Pacific Ocean jet stream and southward shifted storm track is observed favoring high impact weather events along the USA west coast.

Stage 4 – the global relative AAM tendency is negative. Positive (westerly) AAM anomalies are being removed by surface friction in the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes and through mountain torques across the Northern Hemisphere topography. The next phase of the oscillation (if there is one) is represented by easterly wind anomalies intensifying over equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. This stage has enhanced subtropical jets and closed lows in the subtropics favoring rainfall events over the southwestern USA.



That may also explain the huge increase in Atantic shear over the last week or so, from below average to well above average levels (the NHC has mentioned a 100+ kt jet over the tropics in some of the recent TWDs)
Some Data...USGS Link

MAG UTC DATE-TIME

MAP 7.3 2007/11/29 19:00:19 14.921 -61.264 145.4 21 km ( 13 mi) NW of Le Morne-Rouge, Martinique

Link
Good evening everyone and thank you Dr. Masters for the breaking news.

Which one of the buoys would be to watch first in case there is any change in the water column height? National Buoy Data Center

*edit* thanks for posting the maps, Bone. Now I know :-)
hope everyone is alright down there
wow,7.3,pretty strong,I guess the good thing is that it was deep
closest DART bouy to the area



DART
yea NE if that was shallower (0-3miles deep) then we would be under an alert.
anyone know the history of quakes in that area,don't recall any recent activity
wow, Bone you're quick :-) Thanks alot.

I'll go to have dinner, see you later.
ask and recive

all EQs in the area 1990 to present

reports are coming in now

Lookout pacific northwest

LA NINA PATTERN SETTING UP WITH DEEP TROPICAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW CONNECTION FOR THE PAC NW PAC FROM SAT INTO WED WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN AND QPF OUTPUT. A WIDESPREAD AREA
FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND SWD TO NRN CA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME 4-9 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ADDITIONAL HVY PPCN MAKING IT EWD TO THE NRN
ID/MT ROCKIES WITH MODEL OUTPIUT OF 3-5 INCHES LIQUID. HVY PCPN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS/HIGH SEAS AND SURF.
SEE LOCAL AND OPC ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
The same islands affect most by Hurricane Dean. :(
havent heard anything on the news wires yet.
USGS just upgraded it 7.4 now and shallower 143.1km (88.9 miles)

Link
worst shaking was felt in Castries, Saint Lucia
Look at this It shows a tsunami model of the earthquake.
It was felt here in St. Kitts.
301. MichaelSTL 6:18 PM GMT on November 29, 2007
298. weatherbro 11:58 AM CST on November 29, 2007
Barry and I believe Chantalle were subtropical storms



With another hurricane season set to end this Friday, a controversy is brewing over decisions of the National Hurricane Center to designate several borderline systems as tropical storms.

2005 likely wouldn't of set a new record number of storms if the NHC hadn't named a lot of the weaker storms... then I don't see anybody here debating on that... they also even had the nerve to call storms which were analysed as being initially subtropical after the fact as purely tropical during the season (mainly the late season storms, Vince, Delta, etc).


Actually I dont think Chantal was subtropical because typically subtropical cyclones are asymetric, and Chantal's cloud pattern was quite symetric with deep convection near the center. Barry was more like a subtropical system, however it had more tropical characteristics than subtropical characteristics. It had deep convection near the center and the strongest winds were near the center. The NHC said this about Barry:

INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.


Also, from what I have read about some of the weaker systems of 2005, they seem to have met the requirements of a cyclone so the numbers do deserve to be that high. And for Vince the NHC did indicate in their report on the cyclone that the system was a subtropical system, however did indicate that the system became tropical, although it would seem it was never purely tropical, it had more tropical characteristics rather than subtropical ones. Here was the reason for the tropical classification:

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI
... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.

Although I agree that most of the late season storms in 2005 werent purely tropical, however they leaned more toward tropical rather than subtropical. Out of all the late season storms in 2005 (November and December storms), I think Zeta looked the most tropical, kind of funny considering it formed in December, with Delta looking less tropical than the other late season storms.
did find this

1953
M = 7.7 Depth 175 km
North-east of St.Lucia.
Felt at damaging intensities in Saint Lucia, Barbados and St. Vincent. Little serious damage because there were few large buildings at the time. Since then there has been very large-scale development of multi-storey hotels in all islands, particularly in Saint Lucia within 50 km of the epicentre.
And I did go back and look at the reports, and I noticed that most (if not all) of those late season storms in the open atlantic were originally subtropical, however I noticed that at least in Delta's sake, they were subtropical before the NHC declared them as tropical (Delta became subtropical on Nov 22nd, but the NHC declared it a tropical cyclone and initiated advisories on the 23rd when it had become more tropical)
it was Weather... what did it feel like?

all the islands have reported some shaking even South America felt it.

St. Lucia has just reported the worst shakin a V7.6 which is very strong with moderate potential damage
The water column at Buoy 42407 had a couple of slight changes between 19:11 and 19:14 UTC:

2007 11 29 19 14 00 2 4485.971
2007 11 29 19 13 45 3 4485.998 <-----
2007 11 29 19 13 30 3 4485.959
2007 11 29 19 13 15 3 4485.947
2007 11 29 19 13 00 3 4485.975
2007 11 29 19 13 00 2 4485.970
2007 11 29 19 12 45 3 4485.949
2007 11 29 19 12 30 3 4485.924
2007 11 29 19 12 15 3 4485.964
2007 11 29 19 12 00 3 4485.998 <------
2007 11 29 19 12 00 2 4485.980
2007 11 29 19 11 45 3 4485.945
2007 11 29 19 11 30 3 4486.007 <------
2007 11 29 19 11 15 3 4485.959
2007 11 29 19 11 00 3 4485.966

These are not very big changes but considering that the buoy data normally looks like the table below these are considerably high oscillations.

2007 11 29 19 58 00 2 4485.979
2007 11 29 19 57 00 2 4485.979
2007 11 29 19 56 00 2 4485.978
2007 11 29 19 55 00 2 4485.979
2007 11 29 19 54 00 2 4485.978
2007 11 29 19 53 00 2 4485.978
2007 11 29 19 52 00 2 4485.978
2007 11 29 19 51 00 2 4485.978
2007 11 29 19 50 00 2 4485.978
2007 11 29 19 49 00 2 4485.978

these above are the last ten minutes of data from this buoy. Note also that the normal interval is one minute but in the three minutes above it's fifteen seconds. Apparently the reporting interval was shortenend for the time when the possible tsunami was supposed to pass the buoy.
could have been a small one picked up. There could have been an underwater landslide which would cause a small tsunami
there was a 4.8 eq in the area yesterday. Foreshock maybe? Could mean something else can happen there?

Magnitude 4.8 - MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISLANDS
2007 November 28 14:18:11 UTC
The model posted by Weather456 supports this as well... there are small tsunamis visible which affect the islands around the Caribbean about one hour after the quake. I hope it remains as small as shown in the loop.
USGS Prototype Centroid Moment Tensor Solution
Link
07/11/29 19:00:19.25
MARTINIQUE REGION, WINDWARD ISL.
Epicenter: 14.940 -61.243
MW 7.4

USGS CENTROID MOMENT TENSOR
07/11/29 19:00:42.40
Centroid: 15.321 -61.414
Depth 147 No. of sta: 36
Moment Tensor; Scale 10**20 Nm
Mrr=-0.47 Mtt= 0.93
Mpp=-0.46 Mrt=-0.44
Mrp= 1.32 Mtp= 0.54
Principal axes:
T Val= 1.12 Plg= 2 Azm=339
N 0.84 46 246
P -1.95 43 71

Best Double Couple:Mo=1.5*10**20
NP1:Strike=106 Dip=59 Slip= -31
NP2: 214 63 -144

#######
# T #############
### ###########----
################---------
################-------------
###############----------------
#############--------- ------
-############---------- P -------
--##########----------- -------
----#######----------------------
-------###-----------------------
---------#-----------------------
-------#######----------------#
-------########################
-----########################
---######################
-####################
#################
#######


it was Weather... what did it feel like?

I did not personally felt it....but it was felt here by most people.


image on the left is yesterdays 4.8 location right image is todays 7.4
As for aftershocks.......we haven't felt any yet.
gotcha 456
Recent Earthquake Map Animations

Link


here is the actual sismograph of the EQ
as you can see the ground is still shaking (redline covering the black)
The earthquake yesterday in the same region is not even mentioned in the list of quakes on the USGS page Outside US Archive

I wanted to look for more events in this region but now it seems that some of them might be missing...
The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: An earthquake occurred about 40 km (25 miles) NNW of FORT-DE-FRANCE, Martinique at 12:00 PM MST, Nov 29, 2007 (3:00 PM AST in Martinique). The magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available. No reports of damage or casualties have been received at this time; however, this earthquake may have caused damage due to its location and size.
Link
Theoretical P-Wave Travel Time..Link
here is the link tot he sismograph station. It self updates every 10 mintues but you can force the reload by pressing the shift key and hitting F5

Sismograph Station PAL
From what I am hearing it was an intense earthquake as people was knocked off their feet here in SK. Barbados also felt it hard. Can not image what it felt like in Martinique and Dominica.
Twas a Big Jolt..and still lotsa rock and rolling.
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
Earthquake Notification Service

The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) is a customizable system provided free to everyone. You can receive earthquake notifications for any earthquakes located by the ANSS/NEIC (Advanced National Seismic System/National Earthquake Information Center) in the U.S. and around the World. Information for earthquakes in the U.S. is generally available within 5 minutes; information for earthquakes elsewhere in the World is generally available within 30 minutes. Please read the DISCLAIMER at the bottom of this document.
Link
here is the simo image from a station in New Jersey!!!

Pat already part of the Network :)

some days my mail box gets overloaded
LOL we have beat CNN to the story.. not even a mention of it. Thats a first
369. Bonedog 9:53 PM CET on November 29, 2007
LOL we have beat CNN to the story.. not even a mention of it. Thats a first.

Yeah, I saw that. Looked there first after I saw Dr. m.'s announcement. Not a thing...
Good info here!!
nothing on Reuters either. What else happened in the world right now that a 7.4eq is overlooked??
ah found out why Rodney King was shot but not injured.

Link
Associated Press has it

Powerful Earthquake Hits Caribbean
By Associated Press
2:36 PM EST, November 29, 2007
ROSEAU, Dominica - A powerful earthquake rocked the eastern Caribbean on Thursday, the U.S. Geological Survey said. No damage was immediately reported.

The earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.3, was centered 23 miles southeast of Roseau, the capital of Dominica, where the shaking lasted for about 20 seconds. The quake was felt as far away as Puerto Rico.

The quake struck at 2 p.m. EST at a depth of 90 miles beneath the surface of the Earth, according to the geological survey's Web site.


not much more then the USGS press release though :(
456 any news from your local news about the quake?
GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging dominates the upper levels over most of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon from its origin near the Colombian Coast. Meanwhile, a broad, vigorous upper low is located in the Eastern Pacific near 25N/125W. The flow between the two features is advecting scattered to broken mid-high level clouds with embedded showers across Central Mexico. Meanwhile, a cold front is pushing southeastward across the Northern Gulf and the Southeastern United States along 28N/99W 30N/90W 35N/80W to beyond 37N/78W. Upper air observations from Shreveport, Louisiana and meteogram from Tyler Pounds, Texas clearly shows the passage of the front with winds veering from the southwest to northwest. The only moisture along the front is in the form of high-level clouds. In the low levels, an abundance of fair weather and partly cloudy skies dominates the Gulf ahead of the front. Broken to overcast low clouds over the Gulf waters west of 90W and across coastal Mexico to 100W.

by W456
374. Bonedog 5:09 PM AST on November 29, 2007 Hide this comment.
456 any news from your local news about the quake?


Yes...ppl called in to local radio stations to report earthquake being felt but no damages or casualties (thank God).

I am still wondering why everyone else felt it except for me.
BBC report

Link
"For the moment, a building and a bank have collapsed. There is panic, but we do not know if there are casualties," a police source in Fort-de-France told the French news agency AFP

456 yea I wonder why you didnt feel it LOL what were you doing at that time :)
Thanks Patrap for the link to the ENS. Yet another gadget for me :) wow, that's a cool service.
tais after you sign up for the ENS make sure you set your parameters carefully LOL I left my settings low (M2+) and my inbox was overloaded in a day. I have it set at M5.8 now and its pretty managable.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper ridging and very dry air dominates the entire Caribbean today. Thereby deep convection remains absent except for over Panama where the ITCZ is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Surface winds over the entire Caribbean are predominately from the northeast at 10-20 knots with embedded patches of low level clouds and moisture. The strongest trades are over the Southwest Caribbean and these are pushing 9-11 ft seas along the Colombian and Panamanian coasts.


by W456
More on the topic ;~)

Link
456 yea I wonder why you didnt feel it LOL what were you doing at that time :)

LOL..probably making my own earthquake.
2 more aftershocks 5.0 and 4.8
LOL 456
90 miles deep-good thing not 9 miles, or else we might have had a wave pulse along the whole east coast.
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

The surface pressure pattern over the Western Atlantic has weaken and fair weather dominates the area. An upper trough continues to work its way down to the surface...weakening at 200 mb heights, while amplifying at the surface as a surface trough. Some subtropical development is becoming more likely here but still highly uncertain. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms from 20N-27N...between 60W and 40W. Sea surface temperatures under the disturbance is 26-28 C and wind shear is currently modest but expected to briefly drop below 15 knots in 48 hrs before increasing again.

by W456
yea groundswell it wouldnt have been pretty
no one has surfed a tsunami that I know of, so that might be a first.
388. Bonedog 4:39 PM EST on November 29, 2007
yea groundswell it wouldnt have been pretty


Not to mention the Islands and South Am Coastline
ground someone might have but isnt around to talk about it
I do remeber someone surfed the Bay of Funda tidal surge does that count?
389. groundswell 4:42 PM EST
no one has surfed a tsunami that I know of, so that might be a first.


Might be a last, LOL
surfing a tsunami,now thats extreme sports



..I said the Freaking Beach is safe to surf!!
Now..you see How that Tsunami Breaks left and then Curls back in?..
Get yer Board, Cali boy ..We gonna surf dat Bad boy..
Yes, that would be an untapped event-the ultimate groundswell. If it's over 8 feet, count me out.
The only problem with surfing one is that they go inland and thats where you would run into problems.

Good practice would be the tidal bore in the Bay of Fundy
392. Bonedog 4:47 PM EST on November 29, 2007
I do remeber someone surfed the Bay of Funda tidal surge does that count?


Yea but do they? Remember I mean.

Folks have been over Niagra Falls too. Craziness in Canada doesn't count.
I would give it a shot. Just have a jetski team and a copter at the ready.

Also it would need to be a tow in sport. Moves to fast for paddle in
Another Mediterranean Low

Shen I do believe that person made it. I am trying to find it now.
In the Bay of Fundy region there are several excellent places both to watch a tidal bore from the shore or to ride its waves with an adventure tour company

Link


Severn, England
"You could hear the noise, like a steam train hurtling round the corner. And, around the corner, we were met by a 5-foot solid head of water which was getting bigger and bigger. By the time it got to Garden Cliff, it was at least 9 feet almost double overhead." Steve"Wizard" King

The Severn River in Glouchestershire, England, has become the cradle of this growing sport. Dragged upstream at speeds up to 13 mph, the Severn bore can be a glassy swell, a monstrous breaking wave or even a moving hole as it cruises the English countryside, turning the peaceful river into an inland surf zone. A 1955 account describes one of the first attempts to ride these waves on surfboards, and today the Severn bore is frequently surfed by both board and kayak. The best bore riders can travel several miles, with Steve King's unofficial record being 6.3 miles almost a full hour surfing one continuous wave. The Severn also has the most extensive online documentation at bore riders.com
Steve King's unofficial record being 6.3 miles almost a full hour surfing one continuous wave


SIGN ME UP!!!
406. IKE
31 hours....52 minutes left in the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.
North Atlantic Storm





My Bday tomorrow and the offical end of the season :)

after looking at that website I wonder why the surfing community hasnt featured it more!!
Been to Fundy. Tide was out. They tried to get me to go down but this mountain boy don't fish in no river any time close to when they are gonna open up the turbines. Big disappointment we were on a schedule and tide wouldn't turn till after dark. I'd probably have gone down if it had been a better place and we'd time to explore some but didn't make sense to me to go and turn right back around and climb out just to say I'd done it. I was the driver and whipped. Some day maybe.
might have to add one of these adventures to my list of things to do before I die. Ultimate surfing adventure! also need to surf the tanker wakes in the Texas Canal.
Hi all! Sitting here laughing at some of your surfing adventures and dreams! LOL Not me... some of those big waves scare the #&** out of me! Course, I'm very amatuer! Tsunami, no way! Gotta look up the Bay of Fundy... don't know it.
O.k. found Bay of Fundy, and nope, not a chance you'd get this FL. Girl in water that cold. Have to kill me first! LOL
LOL Foxx. The really big ones (20+) scare me too. Anything above chest high I respect. Overhead and I bring the A game and only really enjoy it afterwards sitting by the bonefire. I have had a few occasions to go out in 20 foot sets and it no longer was fun or enjoyable it was purely survival.

Riding a tidal bore sounds fun especially the one I posted above because it doesnt get that big just a long ride. Same goes for the tanker wakes in Texas. 2 foot wave the goes for miles.
ah its just cold water grab yer 5/4/3 and 10mil booties and gloves and your 5mil hood and go at it ;)
409. Bonedog 5:13 PM EST on November 29, 2007
after looking at that website I wonder why the surfing community hasnt featured it more!!


No nightlife and if the wind's wrong the blackflys will suck you dry, that is of the skeeters don't carry you off first. I bet.

I thought we had skeeters but I didn't know from SKEETERS till I'd been to New Brunswick! Lot to put up with for 2 waves a day. Corse I don't git in no boat got no sides an try to stand up neither. My Daddy didn't raise no fool and my Moma learnt me when to git in outa the rain. The stuff them flatlanders 'll do on a dare would kurl yer hair, I tell you!
LOL Shen!! You made my fall outta my chair with that one.

Black flys.. screw that. Those things are flying pirannas I tell you. They even bite through neoprene
Well, you gotta know I am on the Gulf Coast and our waves are small. They tell me if you can ride a wave here in NWFL you can ride one any where... but I have no desire to be cold! LOL Plus getting to old to surf anyway! LOL

Shen... that's funny! Would love to go flyfishing! One thing I miss from my childhood is Rainbow Trout! Yummy! Do a bit of fly-fishing in the Bay... just not the same though.

Bone! Happy Early Birthday!
Thanks Foxx.

Yea I lived in Florida on the Gulf or as acalled it the Lake Of Mexico. Small but fun waves. But they get great when a storms out there spinning things up.
I did not know the flies could bite through the wet suits... thats bad! Those suckers hurt too!

Shen, love your name!
416. ShenValleyFlyFish 10:33 PM GMT on November 29, 2007
409. Bonedog 5:13 PM EST on November 29, 2007
after looking at that website I wonder why the surfing community hasnt featured it more!!

No nightlife and if the wind's wrong the blackflys will suck you dry, that is of the skeeters don't carry you off first. I bet.

I thought we had skeeters but I didn't know from SKEETERS till I'd been to New Brunswick! Lot to put up with for 2 waves a day. Corse I don't git in no boat got no sides an try to stand up neither. My Daddy didn't raise no fool and my Moma learnt me when to git in outa the rain. The stuff them flatlanders 'll do on a dare would kurl yer hair, I tell you!


Up here we serve salmon on a cedar plank thats been done on a BBQ, to people...

Down there they serve people on a fiberglass plank, raw to the sharks :)


oh yea. They make it right through. up here in Jersey we get them on most light wind days, so we tried wearing the suits while we iked tot he beach but it didnt work. By the time we got to the water we had huge welts on us.
Lake of Mexico! LOL True, it can be flat as a pancake, esp. with the wind from the N. Once when my son was about 13 he begged to go to the East Coast... drove to Jacksonville. He ran out to the beach w/ surfboard on shoulder & came to a roadrunner screeching halt. Eeeerk* Yells back to me, "Hey mom the beach is really dirty, the sand is brown!" LOL He had never seen anything but the panhandles sugar white beaches! Priceless!
Down there the serve people on a fiberglass plank, raw to the sharks :)


Thats funny right there, I dont care who you are!
Bone, you are going to have to spray your suit down w/ Cutter's. Hmmm, unless something in it would break down the neo...
LOL Foxx. Yea big diffrence from the powdersugar beachs on the west and the course grainy sands of the east
Down there they serve people on a fiberglass plank, raw to the sharks :)

Agreed, thats funny!
BTW....

Cancun
1 month 5 days 19 hours 12 min 42 sec
Tried the bug spray. It acted like an attractant actually :o/

Now we just get our ORV sticker and drive to the breaks :) Less chance of fly attacks that way.
Bone, wonder if the all natural Marigold Spray would work?? Friend uses it when working w/ her horses. I really don't like those fly bites. Painful!

Cancun??? Vacation???
hmmm Ill give it a try this summer
LOL California Wildfire blowing smoke rings

hey all. I checked on here earlier today and there was nuthin but tumbleweeds...
LOl Lake. yea picked up once Doc posted about the EQ
Bone, LOL CA smoke rings! I will get the website for the Marigold for you... gotta run for now. Ya'll have fun! And keep the weather Gods happy!
Gotcha Foxx will do.
The Barometer Bob Show
Link
The Barometer Bob Show broadcasts LIVE every Thursday night at 8:00pm/et from Northeast Florida.


The Barometer Bob Show for November 29, 2007!

Bob's Guest will be Henri D. Grissino-Mayer, Associate Professor of Geography, at The University of Tennessee. We will discuss his research on the use of tree rings for paleoclimatology.
You can call into the show LIVE at
1-866-931-8437(U.S.A Toll Free) or 904-259-4229 World Wide (Tolls Apply)
With your host Barometer Bob Brookens from Hurricane Hollow Weather!

Visit StormChat during the Show also. Link
The most exciting day is tomorrow Nov 30th , but it is a warning too:) Preparation is the key!
So, where exactly was the earthquake in the Carribean?
OK, I see it now...
439. ajcamsmom 11:46 PM GMT on November 29, 2007
So, where exactly was the earthquake in the Carribean?
Action: | Ignore User


1 decent size shaker and and some little ones
29-NOV-2007 20:11:10 15.09 -61.23 4.8 141.6 LEEWARD ISLANDS
29-NOV-2007 19:34:45 15.10 -61.31 5.0 142.6 LEEWARD ISLANDS
29-NOV-2007 19:00:19 14.92 -61.26 7.3 145.4 WINDWARD ISLANDS
28-NOV-2007 14:18:11 15.05 -60.54 4.8 78.7 LEEWARD ISLANDS




Link
This is an aewsome storm. Click for larger image

Coastal Storm for Ireland on Saturday

441. Orcasystems 6:08 PM CST on November 29, 2007

Thanks...
421. Orcasystems 5:42 PM
Up here we serve salmon on a cedar plank thats been done on a BBQ, to people...
Down there they serve people on a fiberglass plank, raw to the sharks :)


Naw, you got it all wrong, They been broiled to a crisp and marinated in Coca Butter. It's a wonder the Sharks don't spit em back out.

But that salmon now that's some good victuals. If I live and keep my health I'm gonna have a go at hooking on to one of those
Well, happy birthday then Bone and happy surfing. Here in Finland it's already 3:16 am on November 30th so I can congratulate already.

I set the limit auf 5.0 world wide and I've gotten one mail so far, so no problem and I think that 1 GB is quite hard to fill up quickly. :) I'll be off now, good night everyone and see you later today for the last day of the Atlantic hurricane season 2007.
T-MINUS 21HRS 30MINS GMT remain of the
2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Sorry if Been Posted before.


Congrats Jeff on making the big newspaper:

Link
Good evening. Had to sweep-up some broken pots around here today, after that quake shook us up. Felt like about a mag.5 equivalent here in Trinidad. Not nice.It is the noise that the building makes is the most disconcerting thing. Plus the fact that you cannot walk a straight line .............
450. KRL
Thank you Dr. Masters for your blog and great forecasts this year.

The season flew by so fast.

Happy Holidays to everyone!
watch out SEATTLE you got a 75kt wind storm comeing your way


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST THU NOV 29 2007



LONG TERM...THE LATEST GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
CONSIDERING THE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE OF UNDERCUTTING THE BIG
RIDGE I AM SURPRISED HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THERE IS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OUT AROUND 40N/140W AND SOMETHING
AROUND A 960MB LOW WILL TRACK TO THE CHARLOTTES MONDAY. MORE DETAILS
REVEALED IN THE ISSALLOBARS...BUT AT THIS LEAD TIME SUFFICE TO SAY
WINDY AND WARM. STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE A GOOD 24 HOURS TO
WORK THRU WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS AT H850 OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WRN WA PROBABLY WILL AROUND 75KT FROM 06Z MON TO 00Z TUE
(PERHAPS HIGHER BASED ON SOME OF THE NAM SIMULATIONS) AND WINDS
ALONG THE COAST ARE IN EXCESS OF 100KTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
(110KTS IN THE NAM). WOW. A TYPICAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS A 50
OR 60KT PLUME AT H850. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OFF OF THE 12Z MM5
EXTENSION HAD SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 INCHES FOR THE OLYMPICS

(WHICH DOES NOT SEEM AS HIGH AS IT COULD BE W/ 100KT FLOW OVER THE
RIDGES) AND PRECIP OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES CASCADES. THE HYDROLOGY OF THE
EVENT WILL BE COMPLICATED IN THE CASCADES BY MOSTLY SNOW HAVING
FALLEN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
ISN`T PARTICULARLY WET FOR THE CASCADES. MM

WOW is right LOL



oh and this


MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
440 PM PST THU NOV 29 2007

PZZ150-153-156-170-173-176-010000-
/X.NEW.KSEW.MA.S.0003.071130T0040Z-071201T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 20 TO
60 NM-
440 PM PST THU NOV 29 2007

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A POWERFUL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 945 MB SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
RACES TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS WILL RISE TO STORM FORCE
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE STRONG WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO REACH 70 KNOTS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AS HIGH
AS 36 FEET
ON MONDAY. DUE TO THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE SEAS IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH THE SWELL AND WIND WAVE
COMPONENTS UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND WINDS EASE



WOW 36 foot sea


any one that lives in SEATTLE needs to start geting thing that they need for this storm and get redy for HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE move loss thing in doors


this storm is going to be a big one
. . . . . . . . . .() . .() . () . () . .() . () . () . () . () . .() . () . () . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .||....||....||....||....||....||....||....||....||....||....||....|| . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . ~~~~~~~~~~>> H A P P Y <<~~~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . ~~~~~~~~>> B I R T H D A Y <<~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . ~~~~~~~~>> B O N E D O G! <<~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .(_______________________________) . . . . . . . .
pottery...

Glad you made it through.
It sure was a big earthquake!!

Sad to see at least one death and buildings down so many places.
Just so glad it was as deep as it was.

Take care through the aftershocks. ♥
oh wow *blushes*

Thanks listnerVT :)

First thing I saw when I logged in this morning :)
Happy B Day Bonedog
The waves have started ahead of the storm. Web cam shot of the Atlantic Coast of Ireland.





morning folks I have update my blog with my take on this weekends system.
mmmm waves. Look very rideable :)
456 thanks for the Bday wishes :)
ur welcome


wave height from a buoy off the irish coast

this is self updating
Hpappie btrday dog.
thankyou Leftovers :)
The Gulf Coast escaped a busy storm season again as forecasts fizzled.

Link


Storm season winds down, but work at Hurricane Center doesn't
Link
Thank You StormW, Sir.
Happy B-day Bonedog..

Busy with this freaking cake,Phew!

LOL Pat. You are definatley the master when it comes to cool images :)

Thank you for the Bday wish
If ya ever need a image here. Just Google Patrap Images..you'll find something.
hehehe Well you are the DiVinci of cool mpegs and jpegs found on the net. Thats my opinion so take it how you wish LOL ;o)
U should see my other non weather related stuff. But that would be another entry.Not in here.LOL!
Season's Over..Just Humberto took a wack at the Gulf.Another year of lackluster impacts in the US. Thats a Very good thing. The Rebuilding along the Gulf Coast has been blessed with no threats for 2 seasons now.
More Good News too..

$255 million coastal restoration plan gets federal OK
Posted by The Times-Picayune November 29, 2007 7:30PM

Link


Good morning all:
Best Wishes of the day and many happy returns Bonedog
Glad the Gulf has been spared along with the rest of the coasts so you all can rebuild in realative peace BUT I also feel sadened because this will set up complacancy and forgetfulness. Hopefully folks will still contiue to be vigil and take all necessary precautions and preperations well in advance of the season and also listen and heed the Offical watchs warnings and evac orders.

They say storm surge and freshwater runoff kills the most in these storms I say its complacancy that kills more.
Thank you Shen.
Bonedog! Happy Birthday to you!

Here is a link to the MARIGOLD SPRAY. My friend sprays it on her arms, when the flies are bad.
Shen,

You've got WU mail.
Will be hard to forget Calamity on The Scale of 05. There will always be 10 percent anywhere who just dont Get it Bonedog. It's like that in every endeavor mostly. Nature of the Beast.
Thank You Foxx for both the well wishes and the link. I will try it this summer
I know Pat. Just ashame in my mind thats all.


can anyone spot the jet stream in this image?
Bonedog,
also from me happy birthday and all good wishes for your new year!

And yes, I think I can see the jetstream *s*
Thank you Star :)

yea kinda obvious. Thats what 135knt winds do to clouds
Bonedog
yea kinda obvious. Thats what 135knt winds do to clouds

Puts a chill in my bones!
yea Foxx kinda cold up here today.

31 degrees with a 10 mph wind gust to 20. Thats what i woke up to at 4am :o/

Now its 32 and winds are 12mph gusting 21
Happy birthday Bonedog!


By the way, anybody notice how CSU had the exact same forecast for 2006 and 2007? I think they aren't even trying to make accurate forecasts anymore (NOAA did much better - they even forecast less activity for this year)... of course, I also think that Gray is an anti-global warming crackpot (about the only thing that he is right about is there being no connection betwen GW and the 2004-2005 U.S. landfalls; also, the fact that tropical Atlantic SSTs were much colder this year, similar to pre-1995 levels (2007 was similar to many neutral-cool AMO La Nina seaons, like 1988), and activity much less pretty strongly supports the connection between SSTs and activity).

It will be interesting to see what they forecast for next year in any case, and will the cooling trend continue (you may recall the UKMET forecast earlier this year)?

This year's GloSea forecast shows a cooling trend in the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) compared to what we've seen in recent years, and is a major reason why the UK Met Office forecast is so much lower than the other seasonal Atlantic forecasts... ...The GloSea forecast is based on sound science, though, and does call into question whether or not the other seasonal forecasts are forecasting unrealistically high levels of hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. I think that is probably the case, and a better forecast can be made by averaging together the four models into a consensus forecast. Consensus forecasts are difficult to beat, and the consensus of the CSU, NOAA, TSR, and UK Met Office forecasts yields a prediction of 13 more named storms this year, for a total of 15.

Of course, their forecast for only 10 storm was riduculous (Dr. Masters also noted that the consensus forecast of all of the major hurricane forecasts was for about 15 storms, which was very close to actuality).
Thanks STL :)

Also thanks for reminding us about the UKMETs forcast. Guess you cant argue with climotology :)
Happy birthday Bonedog! And many more :)
Also note that Antarctica is surrounded by cold water, which takes a lot longer to heat up than land which surrounds the Arctic. This could be another possibility why the Antarctic has not warmed...
New Blog Up
No mail in my box Beachfox
Also, the global trend of shorter-lived tropical cyclones this year has also extended to the Southern Hemisphere (the site that I often quote only included the Northern Hemisphere); here is what Tropical Storm Risk said about last year's Australian cyclone season:

The 2006/7 season saw near-average Australian-basin tropical storm numbers and near-average Australian landfalling activity but a well below-average Australian-basin ACE index.

This kind of baffles me, since it is a truly worldwide phenomenon... except for the East Pacific, storm numbers have been pretty normal.
ITs raining in So Cal today. Storm system that had been expected to move over AZ has taken a more northern track bringing more rain into So Cal.

First rain since October 13th in most areas. Some areas you have to go back to September.