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Another wild night in Tornado Alley

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:40 AM GMT on May 06, 2007

The sirens sounded two more times in tornado-ravaged Greensburg, Kansas last night, as two more twisters tore through the county. However, both tornadoes missed populated areas, as did most of the approximately 75 tornadoes that touched down yesterday. The action should quiet down considerably today; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of Kansas and Nebraska under its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. Sweetwater, Oklahoma received significant damage from a tornado last night, and we've saved 300 Kb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado.

It will take a long time for Greensburg to recover from Friday's tornado. To get an idea of the scale of devastation, see the aerial photos posted by the Wichita Eagle. Damage surveys are not yet complete on the tornado, but photos I've seen of the destruction show damage consistent with EF4 winds(168-199 mph). It is possible the storm was an EF5 (winds more than 200 mph). The nine deaths from the tornado bring the U.S. tornado death toll to 68 so far this year, two more than the toll for all of last year.

We've saved some extraordinary 1 Mb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado. I asked wunderground meteorologist and tornado expert Rob Carver to comment on what's going on in the animations, and here was his analysis:

This was likely an example of cyclic mesocyclogenesis. In a nutshell, the rear-flank downdraft surges out, wraps around and occludes the mesocyclone (Meso A for short). Meso A then veers to the left and dies, this is why tornado family members curve to the left as they dissipate. While Meso A is dying, a new meso spins up and becomes the dominant meso. Now, while I've seen plenty of simulated cyclic cases where the hook retreats when Meso A occludes, I don't think I've seen anything as dramatic.



Figure 1. Radar image of the storm that spawned the Greensburg, KS tornado of May 4, 2007, showing the clearly defined hook echo associated with the twister.

Coastal Carolina storm
The latest (8pm EDT) computer forecast models continue to show a moderately strong coastal storm developing several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Monday. The storm will be extratropical in nature when it forms. We'll have a lot of time to watch the storm, as it is expected to meander offshore for five days and gradually weaken. Water temperatures are 22-23 C off of the coast, which may be warm enough to allow the low to acquire some subtropical characteristics and become the season's first named storm. The models are hinting that the storm could remain over water long enough for this to happen, and I put the odds of a Subtropical Storm Andrea forming late this week at about 20%.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was out chasing yesterday and caught some of the storms; be sure to tune into his blog over the next few days to read his chase accounts. Stormchaser Dan Robinson posted some video stills of the Greensburg tornado.

Jeff Masters
Storm Brewing
Storm Brewing
A big storm moved in on the 3rd. Wasn't as bad as it looked though.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

V26R- The weather channel is talking about it right now, They said it's going to form, they are talking to hurricane experts right now, and they are pondering whether it will be tropical or subtropical. It's already warm-core, as Micheal stated, so i believe it will be tropical. It's not the air temp that matters either... it's the water temp(warm enough where it is), moisture content(plenty), low vertical wind shear(it's weakening), and of course, the front itself has formed the low, which is in an environment that has the ability for tropical cyclogenesis. There ya go. Keep an eye on this one for all of you in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. I myself am in Florida, Near the Georgia border, we need this rain, the fire in Ware County fire is horrible, we need rain now.
MTJax.. read my post i just posted. Please.
too late for pictures.... rain started and the warning was allowed to expire anywayz
504. MTJax
And Hi again, Pap, Junkie, JP, Taz, Doc, Bama,23 and others!!
Dang, TWC is talking about it. There goes the chances of this thing forming!..LOL
Obviously, if the Weather Channel is acknowledging its existence along with the NWS and NHC, then it's something to watch. They are about label it an invest and send a plane. We're startin' early this year folks. Buckle your seatbelts.
TWC is showing it...uh oh. We are about to go into panic mode
Evening Jax

So you are saying that there is no chance that a subtropical storm forms? If so then why not?

Aren't the upper air conditions supposed to get better in the next 48hrs or so?
509. V26R
Well if you will look at the Bouys near the COC
you'll notice that the pressure has steadied off
And we all know how Accurate the Weather Channel is with their forecasts, Its just too early for something to form off the Carolinas
It'll be a Noreaster for Georges Bank and Nova Scotia!
Statement as of 7:22 PM EDT on May 06, 2007

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
western Broward County in South Florida.
Extreme southwestern Palm Beach County in South Florida.
Southeastern Hendry County in South Florida.
East central Collier County in South Florida.

* Until 815 PM EDT

* at 716 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler continue to
radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado near Big Cypress Seminole Indian reservation... moving
southeast at 30 to 35 mph.

This storm is also capable of producing Golf Ball size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

* The tornado will be near...

Miccosukee service Plaza by 740 PM EDT
intersection Alligator alley and Miami canal by 755 PM EDT

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or could possibly develop anytime. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.

Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency
or your County emergency management. They will relay your report to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Or you can
also call the National Weather Service in Miami directly at
305.229.4528 to report severe weather.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT Sunday
evening for southern Florida.

511. V26R
Ahh Next Time Roman!!!
512. RL3AO
Dont mention the T word (tropical). We wouldnt want CNN to break in talking about possible evacuations after TD1 forms. :)
I've got a link to the latest GFS run.. take a look, it shows a semi-strong Low Pressure System forming. Link
514. MTJax
Sorry HurricaneFCast, as you see, we have lost faith in TWC a loooong time ago. About the same time Cantore lost his hair.
516. V26R
Oh MT Leave Poor Jim to his Baldness Misery
Alright who is going to monitor TWC to see when Abrams and Cantore get deployed. We know its the real deal then LOL!!!
V26R- It's not forming off the Carolinas.. it's off the coast of Florida right now.... The environment is definitely more conducive for development near Florida than the Carolinas, so your ideology concerning the theory of a Carolina T-Storm is correct. However, it's located much further south than that.
An Invest, Planes?? Take it easy!..LOL The most we will get out of this is a Hybrid type storm, maybe Subtropical in nature. Think of it more like a winter Gale. Gonna be bad for Marine interests along the Southeast coast. Now will we see an Invest out of this, possibly.
Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 11:24 PM GMT on May 06, 2007.

V26R- The weather channel is talking about it right now, They said it's going to form, they are talking to hurricane experts right now, and they are pondering whether it will be tropical or subtropical. It's already warm-core, as Micheal stated, so i believe it will be tropical. It's not the air temp that matters either... it's the water temp(warm enough where it is), moisture content(plenty), low vertical wind shear(it's weakening), and of course, the front itself has formed the low, which is in an environment that has the ability for tropical cyclogenesis. There ya go. Keep an eye on this one for all of you in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. I myself am in Florida, Near the Georgia border, we need this rain, the fire in Ware County fire is horrible, we need rain now.

yes thanks for making this post. And its gonna be an invest soon. EVerything is happening so fast and getting really exciting as predicitions about an active 2007 storm season are following thorough. I shoudl have watched the WTC i would have really like what they had to say personally for my self.
Easy jp, I am not sure SSTs are fine. They are borderline at best imho
SST's support Subtropical formation, not tropical development.
Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 11:27 PM GMT on May 06, 2007.

Obviously, if the Weather Channel is acknowledging its existence along with the NWS and NHC, then it's something to watch. They are about label it an invest and send a plane. We're startin' early this year folks. Buckle your seatbelts


thats what they said lol? I hope they have something on it at fifty minutes past the hour.
524. V26R
FCast Geez Its just a Broad area of LP forming, Calm down
525. MTJax
Relax JP. I dont remember you getting so wound up last year.
BUT I will give you 1008 on Thursday.
woohoo...gas up the hurricane hunters!!!! LOL!!

Going be interesting on here tonight!
528. V26R
TWC Ratings must be down, or is it a Rating period for Cable TV???
JP...he can say it....just may not be the correct thing to say.
weatherguy03 look at Hurricanefcast's post at the top of the page mostly this system will be tropical as it has a warm core. I am very anxious to see what NHC says about it.
any bets on first fight of the year? Where the hell is Storm Top?
533. V26R
Hey Bama does this Qualify as Panic Mode yet?
Actually, the SST's around the East Coast of Florida are around 80 degrees according to NOAA.
hey - where the heck is 27windows? I haven't seen her at all yet!
jp, This is just a geuss here, but the heat depth at the end of a season should be a lot higher then it is at the beginning of a season. I think the point is that, for these SSTs to get something to TD or TS strength, it would be very rare.
537. MTJax
Here is the 1008. This seems to be the best view for it:

4 DAY SFC
Sorry Drakoen, I will have to disagree with you. The chances of this becoming fully tropical are rather low. I would put it at about 5%.
Im just joking around JP...I just know that its going to be fun in here since the "Hurricane Experts" on TWC have been engaged!
540. RL3AO
You know if we built tunnels, we would have these cat 4 storms forming off of Florida in May. :)
oohhh.....booooooooo!!! Blog stretched again!!! Booooooooo!!! Fix it Fix it now!!
HFcast. They are in the Mid to Upper 70's. Marginal. And that is right near the Gulf Stream.
i have been watching for a few months...you guys are so informative...also, thanks for showing how to shorten the page...
544. V26R
AHHH TUNNELS!!!!

NOOOOOO
Keep forgetting about storms that formed and/or intensified over even colder waters??? Lets see...

Vince - hurricane
Delta - strong tropical storm
Epsilon - hurricane
Zeta - tropical storm
Gordon - reintensified to a Category 2 hurricane over cool water

Also:
oh tell me the weather channel is now getting involved...

Hey - Jim Cantore can stay at my house if he wants...
Weatherguy-- Sorry, you're wrong. 26.6 Degrees celsius = 79.8 F
550. MTJax
If ST was here he would set us ALL straight.
551. V26R
Okay Who Stretched the Blog?
Fess up
Thankyou for the additional content that supports my theory Micheal.
so we are talking about number 1 or number 2 developing cause you guys got me confused.

link
It's a CAT 5 and it's hitting NO at 5pm on Friday. It is WRITTEN IN STONE.
v26R....we are getting close to panic mode!!! Just have to wait for everyone to get here!!

also look for the rush to the local hardware stores!!
jp for president
Mid to Upper 70's. Thats all. Michael. I will give you Vince and Gordon. The others were reaches!..LOL So, thats maybe less then a 5% chance..LOL
559. MTJax
I stretched and now fixed it. my bad
More:

Tropical Storm Ana - similar location and in April (meaning even colder water).
Hurricane Able- Category 3 hurricane in mid-May, intensified further north (water temperatures were probably similar since this was a couple weeks later but it was further north).
calm down mel...dont need any ST impersonators on here...he is enough on his own
#1. Get Firefox and you will never have a stretched blog again:)
Evening '03, sure wish we could have some real readings from the Gulf Stream...lol

Looking at the maps in my blog, it looks like the Gulf Stream is around 26c all the way up to the OBX. Also looks like the surounding waters are warmer then they have been the past couple of years at this time.
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 11:38 PM GMT on May 06, 2007.

Sorry Drakoen, I will have to disagree with you. The chances of this becoming fully tropical are rather low. I would put it at about 5%.

lol i would have to disagree with that if the weather channel is talking about it being an invest i am sure that probability is much higher in the cyclogenesis
566. V26R
Damn and Im going to miss it
Back to my real job, Fun time is over for me
Have a Nice & Safe Night Everyone
Seeya Tomorrow
TTFN
Mike
Its cool JAX....dont let it happen again LOL!!
Saying his name sends shivers down my back..he used to make me so MAD last year. ok...another rum and coke and i should be calm...whew...had a moment. Sorry y'all.
571. MTJax
oh look... its up on the Navy site!! JK
Nobody believed me when the CMC was forecasting Alberto to develop last year, not until all of the other models started showing it - and this is extremely significant - one model = little chance; many models = high chance.
lets be real here...This is a mind blowing developing situation that nobody realistically expected. Regardless wether it develops into a named storm or not this is interesting to have this promising of a potential system this early.
When, and if this low pressure area develops, and moves SW, the NHC will jump through hoops to look for reasons not to name this system. It may begin to clearly look like a sub-tropical, or tropical system, but due to politcal and economic (oil future prices) reasons the NHC will avoid naming this system...

Naming this system this early will be clearly taken as evidence that we will have an active, and above average season... Oil future prices will soar, and will hurt the overall U.S. economy (politics).
Drakoen. I believe we will get an Invest. I have said that all along. We can still get an Invest and have a Subtropical storm.
GOM SSTs 60 hour model run. Link
Posted By: MTJax at 11:45 PM GMT on May 06, 2007.

oh look... its up on the Navy site!! JK

oh crap lol Link me please
578. RL3AO
I didnt catch TWC report, but did they mention the "T" word? (Tropical)
JP. I think we may see a Subtropical storm, but not a tropical system. So something is gonna form. Nah, I am wrong sometimes..LOL
new discussion from NHC

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE BIG STORY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW PRES SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE....ANALYZED 1009 MB NEAR 35N74W. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SWD FROM THE LOW TO NE
FLORIDA. THIS LOW HAS AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 70W. THE MAIN IMPACT IS THE STRONG WINDS
AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SHIPS/BUOYS ARE
REPORTING NLY WINDS TO 40 KT NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING FURTHER AS IT TAKES A LOOPING OR SLOW WWD MOTION
TOWARD THE SE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BECOMING LESS FRONTAL IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA...REFER TO MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS S OF 31N. FARTHER
E...A WEAK 1011 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N61W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY NE OF THE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
55W-57W. A SFC TROUGH HANGS S/SW FROM THE LOW TOWARD THE NRN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...DEFINED BY A WIND SHIFT.
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 11:46 PM GMT on May 06, 2007.

Drakoen. I believe we will get an Invest. I have said that all along. We can still get an Invest and have a Subtropical storm
.

I am waiting for that 8:00 pm adversory then i will base everything on that. I would prefer to listen to professionals knowledge. And i doubt it will be a cold core system considering the Golf Stream.
And then there is GetReal and the conspiracy theory!!..LOL
585. ryang
THE BIG STORY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW PRES SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE....ANALYZED 1009 MB NEAR 35N74W. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SWD FROM THE LOW TO NE
FLORIDA. THIS LOW HAS AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ROTATING AROUND IT PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 70W.
THE MAIN IMPACT IS THE STRONG WINDS
AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SHIPS/BUOYS ARE
REPORTING NLY WINDS TO 40 KT NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING FURTHER AS IT TAKES A LOOPING OR SLOW WWD MOTION
TOWARD THE SE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BECOMING LESS FRONTAL IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA...REFER TO MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS S OF 31N. FARTHER
E...A WEAK 1011 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N61W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY NE OF THE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
55W-57W. A SFC TROUGH HANGS S/SW FROM THE LOW TOWARD THE NRN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...DEFINED BY A WIND SHIFT.

8:00pm NHC update...
Drakoen..LOL Ok I guess you haven't read my bio. Love ya too!
BTW Drakoen. I never said it would be a cold core. Subtropical. Listen..LOL
JP, I am used to it...LOL Everyone likes to do that to me, I can take it:)
so where is 90L are they going to put it up on the navy site or not?
I'm tellin' ya'll right now. Watch this thing. It will develop. Weatherguy.. Let's go fundamental... The big blob of green = 26.6-27C= 79.8-80.8F, Go further south to the yellow, it reaches towards the 82F mark. These temperatures are high enough to support a TROPICAL STORM. We are not talking about a hurricane people. This thing could be a Tropical Storm AT BEST. That's all i've ever been saying. I never said the word Hurricane. Also, don't take the 80 Degree mark as a milestone. It doesn't have to be 80 degree water for a storm to form, especially with high moisture content in mid-latitude and upper-latitude layers in addition to low vertical wind shear. All which is present and/or will be present for the duration of this thing. I believe it will form, but it will weaken before it makes landfall, if it does at all. The argument we've been having is about the formation of a TS, not a hurricane, and not about where it will go. It will be a Tropical Storm if it forms, the conditions are there. The environment is so unstable it's not even funny.. i mean.. there's tornados in florida... and there have been over 10,000 lightning strikes in the past 8 hours in Florida. The atmosphere is highly unstable and conducive for tropical development. Anyways, I don't need my blood pressure any higher.. lol. So i'm gonna calm down now. Sorry if I sounded angry in this post, i'm just very passionate about my beliefs.
Yeah Bob you can call it a conspiracy if yoy like, but at the end of season review they will come back and declare this an unnamed system!!! NHC M.O.
can someone please send me a link to the navy site so i can save it?
what are the odds of a td1 forming with this?
HFcast. Are you related to Stormtop!!..LOL Its ok, its only weather.
navy site

Link
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 11:49 PM GMT on May 06, 2007.

Drakoen..LOL Ok I guess you haven't read my bio. Love ya too!


lol ok let me restate that and say i would love to hear what the people at the NHC say. Sorry if i offended you position. Guess we have to disagree to agree. I think it will be a warm core as it already is.

Can i have the navy site link please.
600. ryang
Navy Site...Link
the odds are 10-1...place your bets.
Early storms are also not really exceptional; 1992 and 1997 both had a subtropical storm in May and 2003 had a tropical storm in April so we are probably due for another early storm (most likely subtropical, tropical si also possible but the chances of a hurricane are probably low, much less one like Able). The same applies to storms that develop after November - nothing says that they only develop between June 1st and November 30th.
Thank you JP!
Yes it can JP. Oh Drakoen, you didnt offend me. I am just having some fun. You can have your opinion, thats what makes all of this fun.
605. ryang
Drakoen i justed posted the NHC 8:00PM outlook...LOL
lol MT i didn't realize that you put "j/k" next to your post lol. At least i ahve it now for future reference.
Posted By: Bamatracker at 4:54 PM PDT on May 06, 2007.

the odds are 10-1...place your bets.
Posted By: ryang at 4:54 PM PDT on May 06, 2007.

Navy Site...Link
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 4:54 PM PDT on May 06, 2007.

can it be a subtropical depression 03? I believe there is such a thing, right? lol
Posted By: Drakoen at 4:54 PM PDT on May 06, 2007.


Can i have the navy site link please.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:54 PM PDT on May 06, 2007.

navy site

Link



lol 5 post are all at the same time
608. MTJax
HFC is ST in disguise. Also, my bet is 1008-1007 by Thursday, no better than that.
hurricanefcast if it is a ts, where do u think it will go?
Weatherguy03- No clue who you're talking about... But when whether is your career path, it means something to you. So i'm sorry if i offended you. I don't want any animosity, we're just arguing.. people do that and it's good too, you need different perspectives on every situation, it brings a wealth of information to the table.
611. ryang
Surface map....NHC says developing low...LOL

Link
Well, shear conditions have turned somewhat favorable for development off the SE coast.
Okay.. Why in god's name does it matter to y'all that it's subtropical or tropical? It's only a bloody structural difference. Same damned storm. lol
616. ryang
8:00pm outlook...Link
you tell 'em hellsniper!!
HFCast. Yes, I know alittle something about that..LOL You didnt offend me, again we are having fun.
i'll have to go guys i'll see you tommorrow
MTJax.. Honestly.. I don't know who the hell you're talking about. I'm being honest. If you don't believe me, so be it. I don't care. I'm here to discuss the weather, I'm a future meteorologist and i'm working towards my degree right now.. I love the tropics. I'm also new to the site. I tried it at the end of last H season and loved the blogs. It's great to be able to have instant updates here and other intellectuals with knowledge of the weather. We can all learn here, it's a good place to go. I just became a premium member for the $10 a year or w/e earlier this month and i will frequent the blog this summer.
any one hear of a tornado on the ground in sw florida glades county ?
Hurricaneman23- Sorry for the delay in the response to your post.. I believe no one can answer that question confidently at the moment. It seems that it would move Southwest, but how far? We don't know. Most of the models to develop it but they do not have a clear consensus on possible direction or any possible landfalls.
Ahhh HFCast, looks like you will make some friends on here this season..LOL Good luck:)
624. ryang
You guys could come to my blog....if you want!!!!
JUSTCOASTING- I see a Tornado Warning in Collier and Broward. That's it. I think you're safe.
626. MTJax
HFC, ST is someone who frequents the blog. Good guy, lots of fun. I'm relly not picking on you so dont take it that way. Its more a nudge to get ST to show up.

BTW...surface low, crosses central FL to the gulf mid week and brings about 1" of the much needed rain.
The High pressure/winds are artificially enhancing what is a strong low on a stalled front. Who knows what it will ultimately do -- and even then there are so many bits and pieces that chances are whatever you say about direction of movement will at some point be correct -- look at the NHC report!

Its probably not going to strengthen via convection exclusively but there are some warm spots out there.

No worries.

I just hope it mills about north fla long enough to give us a good rain.
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 11:55 PM GMT on May 06, 2007.

Early storms are also not really exceptional; 1992 and 1997 both had a subtropical storm in May and 2003 had a tropical storm in April so we are probably due for another early storm (most likely subtropical, tropical si also possible but the chances of a hurricane are probably low, much less one like Able).

Yes MichaelSTL I do agree with you, but in 1992,1997, and 2003 we did not have a volitale oil futures market to contend with!!! The price of a barrel of oil in the 1990's was around $17 to $30 a barrel...

Any early named activity would drive the speculators wild, can you say $85 to $90 a barrel, or higher!
NHC Model Overview...Link
Weatherguy03- Haha. Yeah, i'm sure i'll need it. I do try not to attack anyone personally, though. That's not what i seek. I seek correct information and high probability in predictions. I want the vast degree of views that are on the blog. It helps you to think of every possible thing before making your own prediction.
Good link pat! Thanks ☺

It can now also be found here. Thanks to you!
Im all Jazz Fested out...LOL. OLd Links today.
GetReal-- Haha. That's a little extreme. It wouldn't reach 85-90 a barrel. It struggled to reach 67 a barrel this past week even with all that's going on in Nigeria and the incredibly high demand. Summer driving season is on the way however, that is not good. If we get a Landfalling Major Hurricane this season, it will not be good, especially if it Hits somewhere along the Gulf Coast.. It would be disastrous to the oil rigs there and could lead to a dollar per gallon jump in gas, as we saw with Katrina. Not good.
ok kids - have a great night - i guess i have to go watch tv with hubby before he disconnects my weather station and throws it in the swamp.

(I'll check back after he falls asleep! lol!)

I'm SUCH a geek.
JP, just dont let him come to my blog!!..LOL J/K HFCast. Have a good evening.
638. MTJax
Here is another good starter link to the
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Well I have to get back to work... Let's just sit back and see how this is handled by the NHC as it plays out... Bye for now...
Lol JP, i'm sure things get heated during actual Hurricane Season. I can already tell by the reactions tonight.
where is the most likely landfall for a major hurricane this year?
On another topic, look at this:

...Widespread Flooding and Historic River Crests Expected...

A weather pattern not observed since the Great Flood of 1993 appears to be taking shape over the Lower Missouri River Valley region today. The graphic below depicts the current weather pattern which favors a setup for a four to five day period of persistent, heavy rainfall. A strong upper level storm system will remain locked across the Southern Rockies for much of the week, allowing deep tropical moisture to stream northward. A stationary surface front, draped across southern Kansas and Missouri, will serve as the focus for repeated thunderstorm development. Several thunderstorm complexes are expected to develop from today, possibly continuing through Friday. Three to five inches of rain has already fallen since midnight Sunday across much of northwest Missouri and adjacent eastern Kansas. An additional three to five inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected to fall over the course of the next several days.

With soils already saturated, and streams/creeks/rivers already swelled from recent rains, flash flooding will become and extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening situation. The excessive rainfall will lead to rapid rises along area rivers with widespread river flooding expected. In fact, current forecasts suggest that historic flood crests will occur on several rivers across northern Missouri, breaking previous high water marks set in 1993.

im going to tell the truth...ill just drive over and beat down anybody who disagrees with me.....LOL!!!
MMS link for those who love the Oil Industry...Link
Hman23--- Florida. 70% Chance according to Dr. Gray. That's what I remember hearing, correct me if i'm wrong someone.
GUYS IAM GETTING NAILED RIGHT NOW!!!
Posted By: hurricaneman23 at 12:14 AM GMT on May 07, 2007.

where is the most likely landfall for a major hurricane this year?


SE FL... Gulf Coast...
Define nailed for us 23!
Posted By: Patrap at 12:17 AM GMT on May 07, 2007.

Define nailed for us 23!



Ohh.. Please don't... I think a few brave souls have been banned for such things... LOL
Wind ,rain,hail?..all 3?..We need the skinny on it! Invest in Binocular cam,they only 40bucks. Cheaper than software.
Its really blowing here in Hatteras now!!
Extremely heavy rain and continues lighting...

TONADO WARNING FOR MIAMI DADE COUNTY!
yes sir tornade warning for central dade county
TVS on the RADAR...3
The sky has really changed up here in north central fla over the last few hours. Lots of clouds moving rapidly -- west -- its quite striking, something is up!
Hey guys whats latest on SE coast system? is florida going to be affected?
JFLORIDA- Where do you live? I'm in North Florida as well.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-071100-
/O.CAN.KJAX.LW.Y.0014.070506T2000Z-070509T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.WI.Y.0003.070506T2000Z-070509T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-CLAY-ST JOHNS-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
GREEN COVE SPRINGS...ST AUGUSTINE...PALATKA...PALM COAST...
BRUNSWICK...WOODBINE...ST MARYS
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL AREAS...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...THE INTRA COASTAL WATERWAY...AND ST
JOHNS RIVER. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY.

MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILES VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION
UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES.

STRONG WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...
AND DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE...AND ANY OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. BOATERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD AVOID OPEN WATER AND STAY CLOSE TO SHORE IN
WIND PROTECTED INLETS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE EXTRA
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AS WELL.


$$


H23 do u think the low off the carolinas will develop into a tropical storm?
Cell x-8 has some rotation noted too on the radar above
...3
I live on a tree farm in the middle of nowhere about 60 mi south of the Ga border - center of the state.

Yea JP but I think its strange with a storm forming up in the Atlantic that is basically stationary for the moment, on this front. I wouldnt expect the front to be that pronounced.
It's still raining here...we've cooled off quite a bit though..
Hey Jp how you doing?? whats your thinking on the SE coast system? any rain for Ga or florida?
Hurricane23- PLEASE tell me the name of that software, that is the type of radar I need. ??
Quit flogging that poor frontal low & look at Tejas later this week. See anything upstairs? Maybe a little divergence? (Only Models, I know.)

SPC AC 060729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EWD TUESDAY WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXIST FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SSWWD INTO PARTS OF WEST TX. EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST AND
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. ATTM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST IN WEST TX WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. IN ADDITION...MODELS
DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WEST TX IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH NEW MODEL RUNS
AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..BROYLES.. 05/06/2007

Graphic of UL winds Removed for brevity- no longer current
Oh wait counter clockwise - so I guess it will turn more to the south as the front passes/possibly diminishes. Still with a warm core system - supposedly - where it is I would expect more of an easterly flow.

Hahah HIEXPRESS, we are beating it dead!! hey where is Tejas?
Finally! The rain came...its raining hard and its probably gusting to around 40 at times
I just got home from work JP.. whats the models sayin about it? tropical perhaps later on or just sub tropical?
BTW: what's the outflow look like over the coastal low?
I can tell you its gusting well over 50 mph here...sometimes closer to 60 mph.
I saw a couple models sayin loop south southwest and comes into florida.then dissapates. maybe some beneficial rain anyways
where do u live shoals
Hey guys...my friend lives in Plantation, FL (33323) Any tornadoes spotted down there?
A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 915 PM EDT for eastern
Miami-Dade County...

At 833 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a possible tornado 6 miles west of Miccosukee resort... or about
17 miles west of Kendall... moving southeast at 30 mph.

The tornado will be near...
intersection krome and Kendall drive by 845 PM EDT...
Kendall Lakes by 850 PM EDT...
The Hammocks and West Kendall by 855 PM EDT...
Country Walk... Inlikita and Metro zoo by 900 PM EDT...
Richmond Heights and the falls by 905 PM EDT...
Goulds by 910 PM EDT...


ACK! I guess I better get my butt downstairs to an interior room (we don't have basements)
Hurricane23- What's the name of the radar software you use?
Plantation is West Ft. Lauderdale...
Cane23, I live in Hatteras...the sound looks like the ocean, clouds have been swirling all day, just like a hurricane.
Outflow, you can check on the lower level divergance as well by clicking it from that link. If it slips down to the lower area of shear there we may have something.
I proud of my self for not saying out loud earlier hahaha - you guys are tracking a cat 5 cold front! because Im watching it too now!
690. MTJax
I see a little divergence, but no real convergence
Thanks...JP. Looks like they're south of her now.
Thank you Sky. Back to work here!
Here's my forecast,

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AND THE MONITOR NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY

AMZ150-070800-
/O.CON.KMHX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070508T0000Z/
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 TO
20 FT.
.MON...NE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 TO
21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KT...DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$
That's what i'm wondering JP.. did posts stop working?
Station 41001 - 150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS

Pressure still falling... winds rising.

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 27.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 59.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 67.3 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 55.0 F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
twc is not ruling out a possibility of it being tropical
JP u still here bro? seems to be a big system off coast huh.. prob get some wind here at least.. Im over in big bend of Florida
Hey again hman lol
Guess most people around here are getting ready for the work week, but, South Florida is certinly getting some much needed rain....Too bad this is a short-term event...
how far South will the low push the rain ?
We could use some in The NW Caribbean
Some of what is going through Miami Dade is already pushing off the S Coast of Fla through the keys
where can i get the names for 07
Yeah...Jeff Morrow will be broadcasting here tomorrow for twc.
WTH... JP? Lol. Umm i guess we lost em for a while. They're back in full force now...
It doesen't look like it is heading to Caiman, but, parts of Cuba& the Bahamas may get some rain before it dissipates; if it wasn't so early in the pre-season, and the shear still so high, I would be more worried about this "remnant" floating around between Cuba and the Bahamas than the low pressure center off the Carolinas.........
Guys just got my power back.
2007 names

Link
oh well the waiting game for rain continues
no tunnels cyclone!!! lets not go down that road
rough storm eh 23? Yall still Okay?
OK, the warning expired.
I could hear either hard rain or hail hitting the roof. Not fun.
Yea pat....

Power was going on and off with very gusty winds i would say anywere between 35-50mph.Its passed us now so look forward to quite evening.Wife was freaking out.
Here is your low...

fr
did max mayfiel retire????
Nothing but thunder where I am.
alright cyclone...i'll let it slide this time LOL!!
low keeps looking better organized as time passes.
Max signed on for a one year weatherman deal with one of the local Miami TV stations last I heard...
Hurricane23- Sorry to beg you.. but you still haven't answered my question. What's the name of your radar software? If you're not going to tell me i'd appreciate you just telling me you're not going to tell me, otherwise, what is it? Lol. I'm in need of new software.
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 1:34 AM GMT on May 07, 2007.

Bamatracker at 1:27 AM GMT on May 07, 2007.

no tunnels cyclone!!! lets not go down that road

I only mentioned them because I am pretty sure they can also prevent severe weather and tornados from forming over Florida and perhaps the Midwest and Southeast.



That's retarded.I'll take the whole 'weakening hurricanes' thing seriously...but to say that your TUNNELS could've stopped the life threatening...and in several cases absolutely devastating severe weather is stupid(because there's no logical reason why it should) and also cold.
Cyclone...you expalined it all to me last year..we dont need to go through it tonight.
Hey all,

I'm looking at that blob of showers that's headed down the FL peninsula. It looks like we are going to get hammered by some heavy rain before the night is out . . .

We sure could use some . . .
Yes,enlighten me.
The Florida rain event missed me here (sadly) in the Big Bend but gave the East Coast and Central/South Florida a good shot....Enjoy it until the next one and Good Night all...
48hr forcast...

g
23

Max retired last year. Proenza is the new director

Link
737. RL3AO
thats starting to look a little more sub-tropical, but its not there yet.
hurricane 23 ?
hurricaneman 23??

HUH ?
don't know why anybody would ever want to have to load all of the comments in a blog, especially when there are hundreds and tons of pictures - a horror even with high speed Internet).

Actually, I usually load them all, unless I've read most of them already. It's too much of a hassle to keep pressing NEXT when I can just scroll down as I read.

Just about the only time I use the 50 comments setting is when the blog is well over 1000 comments and I have already read more than 85% of them.

The picture that's stretching the blog, btw, is the one showing the Greenburg F-5 tornado. Perhaps the person who posted it could go back and edit the size?
2 different people kman.
I'd like to know where you think you got the right to toss around the stupid idea that the TUNNELS could stop tornadoes....two days after a town was wiped off the map,and when several people have died in the past few days.Why don't you show a little consideration,and show some sympathy for those poor people,instead of using them as examples like a fear monger."You'd better support my TUNNELS,or this could happen to you!"
The ITCZ , from Venezuela, through to Panama and into the Pacific, is begining to produce some real weather, at last........
apparently
Odd though. I guess someone likes your handle LOL
will the real slim shady please stand up LOL
any large hail in fl today?
Kris this is from IWIC...

After observing the models the last couple days, it looks as if the western Atlantic low will initially strengthen via baroclinic forcing. Over time, the low will begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. However, upper level conditions cannot sustain a tropical (warm core) low at this time. So the more tropical it becomes, the more it will weaken. The models also show the low drifting west into the southeast USA underneath a high to the north. It would be nice if the southeast could get some rain (drought), but the low will likely be too weak to bring any torrential rainfall by the time it moves inland. All that being said, the low should be monitored for hybrid development over the next few days.
yea 2 different people
With the comma shape, it looks more like a Noreaster...
Thanks Adrian,but I have to disagree with them.Shear will get better the next few days.
Another batch of thunderstorms moving in from the north-northeast. Thankfully it doesn't look so concentrated as the first batch.
Yeah kris, I agree. Shear will improve, and Andrea might form. The most it'll get I think is 60 mph as a tropical storm, and 45 mph as a subtropical storm.
Hey Kris n Adrian!!! I wonder when or if the GFDL model will start up? It doesnt go year round like the CMC n GFS does it??
The GFDL only runs on invests.
You have a point there Jackp0t, but it is about to become a warm-core storm, nor'easters aren't warm-core.
Stormhank

They will crank up the gfdl when an invest is declared
Who here thinks Andrea will develop? I give it a 35% chance of occuring.
I'll go with 45%.
wow buoy 44001 is really getting rocked! Seas 27.6 feet, winds sustained at 41 kts gusting to 56 kts!
Waves at 44001 already exceeding maximum projections
45%? thats pretty high
40% Chance.
I don't think so...after all,it is May.We aren't THAT far from the start of the season.
Where is bouy ..001 ??
I'm not giving odds, especially since the NHC names subtropical systems now. However, 41 kt winds and 28 foot seas are nasty whether it is tropical or not.
Station 41001 - 150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS
NDBC Hatteras Buoy Link
150 nautical miles east of cape hatteras

Link
Thanks
The buoy 5 day plot..graphically..Link
Evening all. It is E of Hatteras pottery. Good to see you.

You can find the National Bouy Data center from the marine section here.

All right y'all I am off to bed. Got to work early. Will be intersting to see if it can build some moisture on that western side.
.Thanks again.
Wouldnt u all agree though that the GFDL is probably one of the best models?I remember back in 2005 it forecast the SW motion of Katrina over south Fla a day or so before it really happened?
The tornado will be near...
intersection krome and Kendall drive by 845 PM EDT...
Kendall Lakes by 850 PM EDT...
The Hammocks and West Kendall by 855 PM EDT...

I'm in the Hammocks and didn't notice any tornado, the dogs were barking fiercely though. Missed another bullet.

Hows everyone doin tonite. Usual suspects are here, and the heated debates continue. I see we have a potential system to keep an eye on over the next couple of days. I'd give it 25-30%, but count your blessings, if this storm were taking place in '05, it'd probably be a full-fledged hurricane by now.
This lows chance at becoming hybrid or tropical will be within 24-36 hours.
cyclonebuster, tornadoes will always occur. No one can stop them. I love life too, but nothing I or anyone else can do about disasters. Keep up the preparation for them, since they WILL continue to happen. I hate complacency more than anything (not offending you or anything).

Also cyclone, WHAT THE HECK is a tunnel? o_O
Just don't ask...LOL.BBL
Doc, last night's tornado was in Sweetwater, OK, not Sweetwater, TX.
783. RL3AO
Posted By: KoritheMan at 9:20 PM CDT on May 06, 2007.

Also cyclone, WHAT THE HECK is a tunnel? o_O


Here we go.
nnooooooooooooooooo....dont ask about the tunnels!!!! LOL
I'm sorry if I started anything by asking. Can't someone MAIL me and tell me? I'm really curious.
" use our tunnels
to stop those funnels " tm

I'm the marketing dept....................
I'm tired people, all this watching loops of the future system in the Atlantic, watching Tornado Warnings pop up in my side of town and tracking the severe weather in the Central Plains has made me tired. Good night everyone and be safe.
new 00Z NAM 48hr..Link
If u want a satellite closeup of that cell as it moves off the FL coast, go here.

I notice it seems to be losing power as it slides off the coast, but it still has enough oomph to it it (hopefully) give us a good night's rain shower. I did check car windows and house windows just now to make sure nothing got wet.

One of the advantages of living in the islands is that tornados rarely form here and even more rarely do damage on land. Mostly we see waterspouts, and the rare tornado is usually embedded in a hurricane.
well that looks the same...looks like the low is starting to wrap a little
buster-I remember when the admins 'requested' that you leave the tunnels out of the underground ,if you'll pardon the pun.


Right now the NHC has at 1005mb area of low pressure.We'll see what happens over the next day or two.

frr
Bahahurican, what are the sea conditions there now ?
66 Hr 00Z NAM.. looks almost stationary?Link
you need to be given your meds.
f-this; nite all!!!!
Would SOMEONE PLEASE mail me and tell me what TUNNELS are??
Evening all! Seems the models are pushing the low off the East Coast a little further south! Keep it coming, we need the rains down here!
o...k... things are just getting wierd in here now.
808. RL3AO
Definatly a tornado on the ground in Pecos county.

1
810. MZT
The Atlantic storm may still be a comma shape, but it's fattening up nicely on the shortwave loops.

Ya know, to be honest, I think it's starting to look a lot like Alberto on the infrared.
Rainfall total estimates are way below what they actually are in soth Florida, areas in south Florida(like Miami) that have rain guages reported totals as high as 3 inches when radar estimated only 1.5 maximum.

In fact Miami reported 2.90 inches in a half hours time, pretty darn heavy.
812. MZT
Another storm that the Southeast "thing" looks like is hurricane Gordon from Y2000. Messy commas can be tropical...

Gordon 2000
Waves at buoy 44001 are up to 31.5 feet! Wow!
And it is getting very windy here, gusts now hitting 40. Time for bed and hear the storm roar outside :)
815. MZT
Bouy 41013 is no slouch either... windspeeds are just touching 39 mph .. tropical storm boundary strength.

Even bouy 41012 off the coast of northern FLA is registering 9 foot waves and 30 mph winds. Tropical or not, this is a strong storm.
816. MZT
Hmm, getting easy to spot the center of circulation now...

-Dang- it's workday tomorrow. Guess I'll check up on it in the morning, to see what happened overnight!
Not only has this year's tornado fatalities surpased last year's total it has surpased the 10 year average of 62 & the 30 year average of 54 & we're not even 1/2 through the year yet.
Statement as of 12:07 PM CDT on May 07, 2007
The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
southern Irion County in southwest Texas...
* until 1245 am CDT

Radar
HIEXPRESS i was just looking at that too and getting ready to post. It looks really bad and its headed directly for the town.
I'm no expert at weather, but from what I have seen ,a jet stream over a thunder storm
will give you much higher odds of a tornado manifesting, and on the other hand, a thunder
storm with no jet stream with in , lets say 500
miles will have a slim chance of producing a tornado! is this a fairly true statment?
Station 41001 - 150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.64 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.12 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 54.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 69.9 kts

Thats INSANE!
What about the wave heights??!!

Significant Wave Height (WVHT): 32.2 ft
Swell Height (SwH): 28.9 ft
Swell Period (SwP): 14.3 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 13.5 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 5.9 sec
Wave Steepness (STEEPNESS): AVERAGE
Average Wave Period (APD): 9.9 sec
buoy reading 48kts, 60kt gusts. 29.69in/.05 (Rising). a lot of spin in there but not a whole lot of convection, its sucking in a bunch of dry air.

Would the dry air hinder the development?
Star the dry continental air entraining into the system will hinder the development of heavy convection. Consequently the system will be less likely to become a true tropical system... Sub-tropical maybe with time... It currently has the look of a cold core low (Gale center).
Thanks, GR. I thought something like that would happen but wasn't sure (as I'm new to forcasting).
check out the Southern Caribbean around May 14th on the GFS:MSL:Tropical Atlantic:18z, could affect the islands before heading out to sea
Doesn't look like it will even become subtropical. It's just a gale.
who knows what it will be, just take note that a disturbance is in the forecast
Hello everyone. Those 7 hours of sleep really did me well.
Morning all,

Would u believe it's barely rained here? That blob just fizzled out as it crossed the Gulf Stream. However, I just heard a bit of thunder, so perhaps later this a. m. we will get a bit of rain. Meanwhile, the temperature has really dropped; it feels almost 10 degrees cooler out there than it did yesterday morning around this time . . .

I'm out for the day. Have a good one! (hope nobody gets hit with another tornado)
Yeah, sure looks like it might have a tough time becoming fully sub-tropical. With all that dry air, nah.
40 KTS gusts being recorded on Cape Hatteras.
Morning all.

If the SE coastal low is to start becoming tropical or sub tropical it would likely not start happening until later tonight. That being said, it will have to get rid of that dry air if it has any shot. Will still be interesting to watch the evolution of this low either way though.

See y'all later

Quick Links
If the storm can cut the dry air off it could become tropical very fast does anyone have a link to the latest models
Here is a link to the 28 indicators for classifying tornadoes

Link
WESTERN ATLANTIC...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE....ANALYZED 998 MB NEAR 33N72W. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SWD FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY
WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH MIAMI RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT TSTMS ARE MORE SCATTERED BETWEEN SFL AND
THE SE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE SEAS AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP
BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA AS DESCRIBED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
ALREADY VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH...AS THE STORM MOVES SSW IT WILL
PROMOTE A CAPTURE FETCH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS
WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE VERY LARGE N/NE SWELL EVENT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE
DETAILS. FARTHER E...A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N62W ATTACHED
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE MAINLY E OF THE LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN 53W-61W.


7am central NHC discussion
So what does that mean in layman's terms?
Dnalia it means that it will not be a very good beach day for swimming in the surf, unless your are a surfer!!!
Thundercloud, you can find the models from that link I posted a couple of posts back.

Morning GR and Dnalia
Good morning SJ... I have to run the kids to school will BBL.
Good morning StormJunkie.

We're finally getting the rain we so desperately needed. I just wish it didn't come with the weather we got last night. I was driving back up to Kendall from Homestead and saw lots of cloud to ground lightning (I'm sure this sparked off a few brush fires out in the Everglades), and the sky had a bit of a green tinge. by the time I got home the sky was black. Then I got the tornado warning for our area. It was a wild night.
Looks like it is trying to cutoff the dry air skye. Will be interesting to see if it can manage it during the daytime heating.
Back to work. See y'all later ☺
LEGITIMATE BLOB #1 IS HERE. MY SPIRIT SISTER ALTANTICA OCEAN IS WARM AND INVITING. SHEARING WINDS HAVE QUIETED TO LISTEN FOR THE COMING STORM. MOTHER EARTH HAS THROWN DRY AIR AT IT AND STILL IT COMES. IT HASN'T WARMED TO THE OCCASION, IT HASN'T AWAKENED AS THE BEAR DOES TO THE WARMING DAYS OF SPRING AND MAY NOT, BUT AS THE SERPANTS WHO'S BELLIES TRAVERSE THE DUST, WHERE THERE IS ONE THERE ARE MANY! - SPRINKLEBOTTOM
Hope we get TD1 and it just dumps rain over Jax for a couple of days. So dry here.
ok sprinkle bottom
are you stormtop?
your name is just the opposite
stormtop/sprinklebottom
K8 I AM THE ANTI-STORMTOP. I AM THE KING OF C & P. EVERYTHING I SAY IS WRITTEN IN SAND. IN EVERY POST THERE WILL BE A MESSAGE IN THE MOST IRREVERENT WAY. I CARE BECAUSE I DON'T CARE


morning all! :)

Very interesting indeed...... at least at this point, seems extra, or sub tropical, as it seems the highest winds are well removed from the center. Quite breezy in myrtle beach this morning.... Steady north wind at 10-15mph, with gusts to 30+......

will be interesting to watch this "storm" develop over the next couple days..... wish we could get a little rain outta this "sucka"......

could this be tropical storm Andrea??
ok sprinklebottom
are you gonna stay on WU this season?
sprinkleb-if you're the anti-ST then you should completely avoid capital letters; don't worry we're listening, you don't have to yell. lol
lol right seminoles
stormtop uses all caps all the time
Check this out- a webcam in Rodanthe, NC. notorious area for erosion on Hatteras Island;
http://www.darenc.com/webcam/mirlo.php

I live in Hatteras and we had gusts over 60 mph late last night, still gusting over 40-50 mph this morning.
Station 41001 - 150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS
(7:50 am EDT)
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 37.1 ft

37FT WAVES! LOL

THE SURF IS UP! LOL
ST2.5 in from SSD on our new friend 90L!

Wooo hoo, let's get this show on the road, folks.
Anyone else see the 00z ECMWF? It's the first model I've seen that pushes this thing across FL and into the Gulf.

The others(CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET,GFS)I looked at are still going with the loop then moving off to the E or NE, so the concensus is NOT into the Gulf right now.

I just thought it was worth mentioning.
Your not saying that it is now an invest are you Colby?
Colby, we have 90L now???
Good to see almost everyone back. This one could get a name.
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LOLOL gulf
NRL hasn't posted it as 90L yet, but this T-number came in an hour or so ago from SSD:

07/1145 UTC 32.0N 73.1W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

So they're calling it 90L.
90L yay!
By the way, since my site has become overwhelmed with spambots, I'll be posting my thoughts in my blog. Posting 90L statement momentarily.
It'a official--Greensburg has been classified as EF-5. Maximum winds estimated at 205 mph.
Good morning....

Checking in from work and everything looks like we will indeed have sub-tropical storm in our hands pretty soon.Be back in 3 hours.

gggg
LSU Earth Scans Lab
what does the storm off the SE coast need to become named??? I guess we are looking for tropical characteristics???

we certainly have winds that support a named storm! and 37foot waves to boot!
Morning all.

Thel, with the size of that rain shield, we may be able to get some. System really needs to get that dry air out though if it is to become much.

Quick Links - Models, imagery, marine data, and more.
LOOK AT THIS

Do u have a link to the SSD classification of a 2.5 for this system?
did you way WEST????
It isn't an invest. If this was any other basin save the EPAC perhaps...

As for the models 06Zgfs, 00Z NOGAPS, UKMET, MRF & ECMWF all take it over & or disapate it in FL (mostly Northern to central).

CMC & GEM has it meander NFL, GA, SC & out to sea.

A TD looks a little less likely. Maybe STD.
Why would it weaken before hitting land? I thought it needs to hit land to weaken??
sighhhhh..My hero jo
The GFSx does the same Skyepony..this no drought buster..sadly..Link
Colby: Where did you see the SSD classification of 2.5. Where can I find it on the internet?? Thanks
did somebody say west??? LOL
The only name I'm giving this thing is the "Great Waycross Fire-Fanner". Thanks to this windbag another 20,000 acres are gonna go up in flames.
Hey Colby~ sorry about your site.. ST2.5 is near an STS. They are really trying hard to ignore this.

Crown~ link here

Patrap~ yeah we're so dry it's gonna take a few of these.. We're like 15" or so behind here.

Skye,..yall Need a good Meso like we had last Friday..or Gullywashing frog strangling TD..say around May 18th?..
Patrap...what that is, map?
when is the naxt update for the navy site? may be will see 90L or are 1st name storm then
The UNISYS GFSx Home Page..Link
The "Blue Angels" just took off......They're gonna intercept it.....

No storms in the gulf this year.... and no westcasting...
Taz,

the Navy can update anytime..... I agree with Skye..... they are doing their best to ignore 9OL!

There have already been at least a couple distress calls from ships off the outer banks.... one ship being battered by 34 foot waves!

3 people were in a life raft! talking about a bad day!
I wonder what the NWS is going to say about it at 2 00 this afternoon I wonder if it is going to be a special feature
It would be a real nasty day to be off shore up that way thel even in a cutter, much less a dingy!

That area really gets churning when the waves and winds get this way.
hopefully Dr. Masters will give us his thoughts on the first Navy invest this morning.....

WAKE UP DR. MASTERS! LOL
SJ, you may get skirted, but it looks like Myrtle Beach will miss rain..... and we could use it!!
I want this thing to get into SE GA, they need the RAIN!!!
Yea, not sure thel. Looks like it may be moving almost due S right now. If that continues it will not be til later in the week that it gives us a chance for rain. Also, due south is moving it away from the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.

Going to be real interested to see if it can work this dry air out. It is still pulling it in pretty good right now, but it does look like moisture is increasing on the NW side of the system The radar shows that rain shield increasing in intensity.
I am with you on that spicey, and nice to meet you.
I am more of a reader, but I will post when I have something THOUGHTFULL to say. Sorry if I ruffle any feathers.
90L looks almost stationary now..... seems to be just east of the Gulf Stream...... If it were positioned over the warmer waters of the gulf stream, could aid in transition to warm core???
YES 90L exists according to SSL
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

It's eating up all the ultra-dry air over SE GA that has been fueling the fires. On a side note- has there been any research on the effect of smoke from large wildfires on the development of storm systems? This thing is pulling the smoke from the Waycross fire right into it.
The Convection is begining to cut the dry air from getting into the kids
you would think the smoke would have the same reaction like dust from the Sahara.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
I question the development of this system wouldn't NOAA fly a plane in there if it is serious? Wouldn't Dr.Masters post a new blog???
I think they are waiting to have some deep convection to develop near the center not at the edge


looks like the rain shield is increasing in intensity..... I wanna west cast for rain purposes.... GO WEST 90L, GO WEST! LOL
919. MTJax
Did you see it was listed at 998MB at 0800TWDAT?
This might be a STRECH!!! but I would love for this thing to hit SE GA, then go right down the middle of FLA, then if it can make it to the gulf and re-energize into something then go back up GA in SC where I am.


Some 65kt wind barbs however rain contaminated
Maybe it doesn't quite look like a duck yet. A goose, maybe? Or perhaps a platypus.
a SEAGULL! jo
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mhx&product=N0Z&loop=yes
They have downgraded the north most Storm Warning to a Gale Warning
most likely because it is heading south/ SouthWest
AMZ374-072115-
/O.CON.KCHS.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070508T2200Z/
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
547 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON


TODAY
NE WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT...BECOMING N.
SEAS 12 TO 15 FT... BUILDING TO 12 TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT
N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO
16 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUE
N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TSTMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE NIGHT
N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO
15 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY.
Thundercloud, please resize your image to a max of 640 on the width!

Thanks
Conditions at 41001 as of
(9:50 am EDT)
1350 GMT on 05/07/2007:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 36.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 40.7 ft


40 foot waves!
man..... feel sorry for anybody in that surf!!!

40 foot waves are huge!!! (duh!)
NEW BLOG!!!
thelmores

the 40 foot waves are out to sea, near shore is is 6-8 feet, with 10 sec in between sets, good surfing times!!!!!!!!!!!!
Whatever from this low eventually takes, any rainmaker for the S.E. is a good thing