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Another tough hurricane season in 2006

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:25 PM GMT on December 06, 2005

Get ready for another tough hurricane season in 2006. If the forecast team at Colorado State University (CSU) founded by Dr. Bill Gray (now headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach) is correct, we are in for another much more active than usual hurricane season, with 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes. The average Atlantic season has only 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes. In their forecast for the upcoming hurricane season released today, the CSU team also projects that the U.S. will be at high risk from strikes by intense hurricanes again, with an 81% chance of a strike by a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane. However, the forecast notes that the from a purely statistical point of view, the number of landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes in the U.S. should decrease in 2006 from what we have seen during 2005 and 2004. They note:

It is rare to have two consecutive years with such a strong simultaneous combination of high amounts of major hurricane activity together with especially favorable steering flow currents. The historical records and the laws of statistics indicate that the probability of seeing another two consecutive hurricane season like 2004-2005 is very low. Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane US landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005.


The CSU team uses observations of monthly average atmospheric winds and pressures over six specific regions of the globe taken this Fall to determine whether favorable or unfavorable conditions will exist for the 2006 hurricane season. All six of these "predictors" are favorable for an active 2006 hurricane season. A condensed summary:

1) El Nio, which acts to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, is not expected to be active during the 2006 hurricane season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Nia conditions will develop, which are favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity.

2) The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), an oscillation in the stratosphere that creates alternating westerly and easterly winds there, is expected to be in it west phase during the hurricane season of 2006. The west phase of the QBO has been shown to provide favorable conditions for development of tropical cyclones in the deep tropics.

3) The observed pressure and wind patterns over the North Atlantic will allow stronger than normal southerly winds to keep sea surface temperatures over the entire North Atlantic well above normal during 2006. Sea surface temperatures during 2005 were the highest measured since at least 1950, and helped fuel 2005's record-breaking intense hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures during the 2006 hurricane season may be just as warm.

4) Perhaps most importantly, observed wind and pressure patterns this Fall indicate that upper-level winds in the upper atmosphere (200 mb) will blow from the east during the hurricane season of 2006, like they did during 2005. This results in low wind shear over hurricane formation regions of the tropical Atlantic. Low wind shear is the key ingredient needed for tropical storm formation and intensification.

How good are these long-range hurricane forecasts issued in December? Last year, the December forecast called for an average 2005 hurricane season with 11 named storms, six of them becoming hurricanes. Obviously, the forecast was a bust--we had 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes. The updated forecast issued on May 31 of 2005 performed much better--15 named storms were forecast, with eight hurricanes. However, over the past five years (not including the forecast for the 2005 season), the skill of the December hurricane forecasts by the CSU team has been quite good--in four out of five years, the predicted number of named storms was within three of the actual number. Tune in April 4, when the CSU team issues their updated forecast for the 2006 hurricane season. Maybe Hurricane Epsilon will be gone by then!

I'll talk more about Epsilon tomorrow.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr Masters!
As Always Well Written & Informative.
Second! BBL
Thank you Dr. Masters for this update. Please, everyone, as soon as possible after the holidays, review your hurricane plan, make one if you don't have one, and start preparations early. And, support this site so that we can continue to get timely, informed forecasts and updates.
Out of curiousity, what were the indicators THIS year?


Though the upper level shear is 90+ knot, Epsilon may survive. If it made a quick SW turn now, it would travel through near-zero midlevel shear, and since Epsilon is a shallow system it wouldn't be affected.
As I said yesterday, mans understanding of the earths atmosphere and its actions is limited to our experiences which are very, very small in the grand scheme of things......Lets see......we have really only about 50 years of fairly complete statistics on hurricanes and the atmosphere in general. The earth has been around billions of years.......... Lets see what percentage is that...


We have .0000000000000001% of the history to make our predictions about hurricanes......so we cant expect much!
You know there is a funny thing about mother nature, she doesn't seem to much care about statistics. My sense when I read their forecast was they are trying not to come off as alarmist and I can understand that, not to mention they know their reports carry a lot of weight in the insurance industry. Better to down play the possibility of another bad year, then to have the insurance companies really decide its not such a good idea to insure costal property.
I think a climactic shift has occured, and that next year we will see the same anomalous steering patterns and extreme activity.
Little scary that all 6 point to a bad year. & with a possible la nina (which we didn't have this year), i'm not 100% convinced we just witnessed a once in a lifetime year. Mornin all!

~colby, yeah, i'm real curriuos how that front & shear will affect eppy. should cut her off from the extratropical energy source. As she goes south & hits warmer waters, the cloud tops should rise, allowing the shear to play in. or perhaps these things have figured a way to stay shallow to avoid the upper shear. can't wait to see what happens. The eye is getting smaller, lets see if she can shake out the dry air.
I appreciate so much the summary of the Greycast, and especially the information about previous December forecasts. Thanks!
Skyepony, I've been following Eppy at the link posted below. From earlier pictures, it looks like convection is making a comeback on the NW side.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
I don't like to jump in and leave, but I have to get back to work. I think the link in my last post is updated every 30 minutes. If the convection continues, records may be broken for hurricane days and named storm days.
I have thing to say...........Anything is possible!!!!!!!!
Hello everyone! :-)
Dr. Masters..... Thanks for your sharing ... appreciate.
Hello everyone....right now I am not even thinking about next hurricane season...just enjoying the Christmas season.
Does Anyone know the Current ACE and NTC points as of 0.5 into Tuesday December 6th?
Ive been a hardcore hurricane fanatic and weather fanatic since I can remember....since around 1975, and I cant remember ever seeing things that Ive seen this year. And when I say anythings possible, I mean it..... Look at the rules that are being broken......Look at what Epsilon has been doing......A couple of keys to that statement.....Epsilon(the freakin 26th storm name)!!!!!! the name epsilon....if i had told any of you guys 3 years ago that in the year 2005 Hurricane Epsilon on December 6 located Northeast of Bermuda heading south at 5 mph, you look at me like I was crazy......think about it.....you would...... We had vince hitting moroco, wilma intensifying with a small eye that i can only remember once(Gilbert)....... And the most interesting thing is......that I think that this is not unusual in THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.... just to us, because we have such a short history........ka peche
My guess is that 2005 ACE is close to 230 by now, but I don't know where the real numbers are kept.
Hi there - has anyone thought about the poor rowers who left the Canaries last Friday to row across the Atlantic in the Atlantic Race? They are about to be hit by Epsilon; weather in their area is forcasteed to get to gale force 5 by 6pm GMT. Sandi
Morning Weatherdude, does feel a lot more like Christmas this morning:)

Don't feel bad about jumping in & out Hayden that's the great part of the blogs~ you can chat, live & catch up, then repeat. I got that floater as well as the WV up this morning. To link things into your comments~ right click & highlight the address you want to share, right click & select copy. Then in blog comment highlight word in your comment where you want to put link. do this by holding down the right click button as you drag curser over word or phrase. release button word or phrase should be highlighted in blue. click on the blue link box above where you write your comment. a window will appear in the upper left of your screen. set curser in address bar, right click, select paste. click OK.
Hello skye....yes it does feel a lot more like Christmas
Well the ACE was 234 Yesterday and the NTC already has Passed The Record with 249 Just Trying to see where they are now
To quote Will Smith,

"Oh. Hell. No!"
? lol

We shall see whether or not we get a bunch of landfalling US hurricanes next year. If we get 3 consecutive bad years than this will probably confirm a trend and not just a statistical anomoly.
How about we just say its a once and a life time even, close our eyes and ignore them? Mabye they will go away...

*family just bought a mobile home... in florida.... because this was a "once in a life time season" 2 times in a row*

Oie...I forsee many irritations next year if this predition is right.
LOL, FFox7 on the Fresh prince's I, Robot Line...
Been Using That One Since Jeanne 2004 Made Her Turn.
"family just bought a mobile home... in florida"

Why anyone would want to do that, even in an off season, is beyond me.

I saw the results of a mobile home park after Wilma blew through. It wasn't pretty.

Mobile homes should be outlawed in hurricane country.
"yes it does feel a lot more like Christmas"

85 degrees with 90% humidity here in Ft. Lauderdale. It only feels a lot more like Christmas if I crawl into the refrigerator.

Pass the mayo, please...
Jorick, Im freezin my tighties off in this cold weather here in the Pan Handle/LA (Lower Alabama) region...
weatherboy...

GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.... wish I had a crystal ball...

Me thinks thou art onto to something...
jorick...

If they outlaw mobile homes, they should do the same for the 'McMansions' and high rise condos along the shore lines.
Good morning everyone.
I see you are all still waiting and watching Epsilon for us. Won't that storm ever just go away! I will continue to check back in throughout the day. Thanks for all of your updates!
Gamma
Hey FLFox, I'm feezing too, lol...

SRQGal - I completely agree on that... They build the big condos right on the water and then cry when they are washed away!
Hey Gamma, how are ya?
jorick~ the cold (well low to mid 70's) has made it to Brevard, hang on you should be able to get out of the fridge soon:)

Took a look at eppy~ her most west side outer band is starting to get tore up. At this rate she's not moving fast enough to make the bridge to the leewards. Unless she boogies on she'll get ripped up. ~ interesting trend with the ukmet & now the gfs is jumping on board with a 2nd front (ukmet) or this front (gfs) snatchin her up north. They both develop, perhaps Zeta off of Africa out of the tail of the front.
Regarding the 2005 season...

Folks, remember that we had a period of a few weeks earlier this season where there were massive plumes of very dry air crossing the Atlantic from those African dust storms, which inhibited tropical development. Absent that, we may have had even more storms this year.

Can't wait to see what 2006 will bring...add La Nia and stir...
Steve, that dry air was a relic of all our storms this year. By keeping the waves weak in the atlantic, it allowed them to develop over the more fertile Caribbean.
just checking back in.

Hello to you 21! I am fine today (not at work is always a good day!) I am working on my blog; such a feat for me; I hope to get it set up correctly soon. Thanks for asking.

Everyone, I will continue to stop in and out. Is Eppie winding down yet???
A bit, gamma. Looking somewhat better right now tho.
Colby: I attribute the intensity of this season to the much warmer than normal SSTs and the persistent Gulf loop current, which caused several storms to blow up big this season...the Gulf was the place to (not) be this hurricane season!
ForecasterColby wrote:

"Steve, that dry air was a relic of all our storms this year. By keeping the waves weak in the atlantic, it allowed them to develop over the more fertile Caribbean."

Take away the dust storms, and we would have probably had another Dennis or Ivan on the list this year...not that we needed it...heh heh...
I love when they base predictions on statistical probability.
We have a local tv meteorologist do his big winter prediction
two weeks ago. One reason was the statistical probability our snowfall would be below mormal this winter is because last year was above and they dont follow back to back statistically.

Now if the big storm on the horizon pans out as the models suggest this friday we will have met his prediction for this winter. Our normal snow season is still a few weeks from starting! Can you say total bust.



Looks like Epsilon is making another comeback. Appears as though some more strong convection is blowing up in the north-east quadrant. She deffinetly doesnt lookas strong as she did yesterday, however we may be see her intensify just enough to make that golden bridge to CAT 2+

BB73
Are there any DIRECT measurements of Epsilon's winds? Since this storm is breaking all the rules, conventional methods for determining wind speed indirectly might not be valid.

Someone should make EPSILON - THE IMPOSSIBLE STORM T-shirts.
Posted by wonderness. It was the last post in Jeff Master's last blog.

"The hot spot in the Pacific may be related to the upwelling of Global Ocean Circulation (THC or called the Gulf Stream in the northern Atlantic). The downwelling sites east and southwest of Greenland act as vacuum to pull water around the world. If the Gulf Stream (surface water headed north) is slowing so also would be the upwelling process in the north Pacific (deep water rising to become surface water and surface water pulled back to the Atlantic)."

This most likely true. If the upwelling does not occur with such intensity in the North Atlantic, then the Pacific will be affected as well. The oceans are connected and so are the affects of each.

About that possible small 'ice-age' they were talking about in Europe about a week ago. Did they put a guestamate on when that might happen? Couple hundred years if we keep our act up? That mini ice-age might not be concentrated to Europe alone. Anyones thoughts? I know its a bit perposterous to be talking about a possible ice-age but its quiet.

BB73
l0l great and i just asked to stay a year longer in the carribean :P :/
Depending on the shear, i forsee Epsilon blowing up a bit from now, 11:17 AM PST, until later this evening. She's going over considerable warmer waters than she was in that at the time could only support a CAT 1.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
Gotta start pulling some mositure from somewhere, eppy is sitting in very dry air right now.
I just looked at Eppy....by the way, is this Eppy female or male?? Whatever the gender, its still a hurricane and I dont see it going away anytime soon, as the GFDL predicts......time will tell....
Maybe, but there is just this little moisture base called the ocean under her though :D

Oranges showing in the IR imagery now, looking better to me than it ever has. Cat2+ very possible if she hurries.
O.O Did anyone else notice that the NOGAPS is showing the same turn as the GFDL now?
Trouper415, thanks for the link. But it shows that a cat 3 hurricane can still hit Ft. Lauderdale. Haven't ya got anything that says "Light tropical breezes for the rest of the year"?
Jorick:

Light tropical breezes of 115mph for the rest of the year.
Hey everyone,

I just looked at the latest Infrared for the first time today and as has been the cas for the past 24 to 36 hours...it shows the same conflicting pattern where Epsilon will weaken for about an hour or two as the shear abd dry air penetrate her eyewall follwed by another couple of hours of intense convection rewrapping itself back aroung the eye.

Being the fact that I still believe that Epsilon has retain some extratropical characteristics..this seems a reasonable explanation for its continued fluctuations that allow it to retain hurricane intensity in typically unfavorable atmospheric conditions that a purely Tropical cyclone wouldn't be able to endure.

That being said, we are left with two plausable outcomes relative to the current satellite presentation and current track. By moving to the SSW and SW, it is now exposing itself to a more direct impact from the increasing westerly shea as evidenced by the WSW to ESE shreading of the circulation in the NW guarant. At the same time, it is rebuilding its eyewall once again in response to increasingly warmer water as it moves generally SSW. WE need to watch for another 3 to 6 hour trend of persistence because although the convection around the center looks great, we can see the westerly shear moving closer to the eye in the last frame from the WSW which could really expose the center on that side. To show exactly how difficult it is to forecast Epsilon outside of these 1 to 2 hours fluctuations is that I believe she is able or has been able to maintain itself by being more of a Hybrid.

On the other hand, the warmer water could both help or hender her future intensity by altering her previous Hybrid state. By becoming purely tropical, I forsee the increasing shear having far more impact on Epsilon previously. Secondly, the warmer sea surface temperatures could help her attain a deeper intensity becoming more tropical in nature absent the increasing shear. Thus, we have conflicting evidence that could support either a restrengthening phase or a gradual weakening one as well.

The future intensity is moreso than ever dependant on the upper level wind shear since Epsilon is both moving over warmer waters and at the same time exposing more of its circulation to it as it turns more directly into it.

It is best served by maintaining some extratropical characteristics which may or not continue as it moves over more tropical waters. Once again, we will need to watch for which trend becomes te persiistent one for at least a 3 to 4 hour time period. If it continues to fluctuate bacvk and forth as it has for the past 36 hours, that favors a more or less steady state intensity of a borederline minimal hurricane.

Here's the latest Infrared satellite loop detailing what I was basing my commentary on.:)

Sorry, I lost the link..brb..lol:)

Here's the link.:)

Link
It's defnetly becoming fully tropical. Much deep convection concentrating around a tighter eye. I think we'll see an anticyclone establish itself in time to do battle with the shear.
ForecasterColby, thanks a lot! :P

Sheesh!
The last frame since I began that lng post..lol...has shown it taking on more tropical characteristics as Colby so well noted. If it can resist the increasing shear and continue to tighten its circulation and keep the new formed more intense eyewall for longer than 2 hours at a time before succombing to the shear and dry air entrainment, it may very well restrengthen.

On the other hand, the same can be true for increasing shear if it can once again penetrate the eyewall as has been the case less than 3 hours afte this reformation occurs.

It's all hinging on the strength of the shear.:)
What if we were to assign an tropical percentage value to every tropical storm and hurricane that forms? A value of 100% would mean that the storm is purely tropical in nature, and a value of 0% would mean that the storm had no tropical characteristics whatsoever. This value could be applied to models for a more accurate prediction of what the storm would do in the future.

Of course, one major problem would be trying to determine just how tropical or extratropical the storm was to start with. I'm sure it would be extremely difficult to find Eppie's number.

Or is this being done already? I'm not an expert so I don't know what kind of numbers go into hurricane prediction.
Hey I just got caught up again and still not liking what your are all saying! LOL Looking more "tropical"...
we don't want that... Keep up the great job and I will check back in again later.
Thanks
Gamma
Honestly, I am hesistant to predict it either way minus a 3 to 6 hour hour persistent trend which has not materialized for at the least the past 24 hours which has kept it in a steady state despite obvious fluctuations.

Which will win during the next 3 to 6 hours is key...will it be the increasing shear directly into the storms circulation or the warmer waters and more purely tropical characteristics and less shear than currently forcasted by the models.

We will know the answer in another 3 to 6 hours.

Regarding the 4 PM EST advisory, the NHC would have to maintain hurricane intensity as a result of the intense convection having rewrapped itself around the eye.:)
I like that idea Jorick but like you so correctly stated...there is alot of subjectivity involved in determing that value based upon satellite estimates alone..any small error could and would have definate effects upon such a storms future intensity.

However, it's better than no statistical compulation and simply saying who knows what is going to happen with Epsion as the NHC has been saying repeatedly the past 24 hours in a dumbfounde manner.

I major inhibitor ijn forecasting Epsilons intensity is the lack of data from directly inside the storm which makes such forecasts much more reliable. Unfortunately, the hurricane hunters don't go further out to investigate a system east of at least 55 degress longitude if I remember corrrectly. Since it poses so threat to any land areas, they will remain the case. Just imagine if the NHC stopped using Recon altogether and forecasted on satellite imagery alone...that would leave alot of room for error as evidenced by Epsilon for example.

Simply put, theres an obvious reasonwhy Epsilon has been able to survive and retain hurricane strength in such typically unfavorable atmospheric environments despite our inability to explain it.

Although we each have our plausable rationale.:)
wow! sorry about the typos...I need to proof read before posting my comments.:)
Right on shedule..the eyewall convection is beginning t once again be exposed to dry air from the south and its getting sheared badly from the west and WSW...

no persistent trend has lasted more than a couple of hours during the past 24 hour period. Hence, its barely holding onto hurricane intensity. the NHC seems eager to downgrade it first chance they get and it will be interesting whether they base their 4 PM EST advisory on the convection that rewrapped around the center an hour ago or the presecence of the strong shear trying to erode it once again. Overall, the circulation has diminshed between advisories as a result of the shear. IT will be a tough call on its intensity for them.
I like the idea Jorik. Even if there was a lot of grey area when charting the systems on that scale, we over time could make adjustments to the scale as we learn more and more about these new 'types' of hurricanes.
Someone was asking about ACE values (may have been yesterday).

I think now 2005 is going to be very close to the highest year. I believe ACE is now over 232 for 2005 but this is not from an official source.
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE DEC 06 2005

...EPSILON HANGS ON AS A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST OR ABOUT 640
MILES...1030 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17
KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES... 240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.1 N... 34.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

Happy birthday to me!
Happy birthday to me!
Epsilon's still a hurricane,
Happy birthday to me!
They can't downgrade it as long as Epsilon keeps rebuilding her eyewal with intense convection every couple of hours after it gets eroded for an hour or two.:)
LOL...Happy Birthday Tony!:)
This is going to be a close call because I stated in my last blog that it would be downgraded to a strong tropical storm most likely no later than the 10 PM EST advisory..if this fluctuationing trend continues.. It wil hang on longer than I anticipated last night because the convection around the center will keep it at minimum hurricane strength as long as it can reappear every couple of hours.
Thanks hurricanechaser! Can't wait to open gifts, I asked for quite a bit weather stuff, but I asked for them to be split over Christmas and my birthday.
Awesome..May I ask what kind of cool weather stuff you are hoping to get?
Its definately in the fluctuating weakening phase again..question is will it rebound in another 2 hours as it has for 36 hours right on que.

Honestly, it is looking less defined overall in the past 6 to 12 hours which doesn't bode well for maintaining hurricane intensity if it can't rebuild its eyewall convection again this time.
I copied this from Wikipedia:

If this info is True ACE is 236 as of DEC 2 , which means we may have the biggest ACE year for the Atlantic, thanks to Epsilon's refusal to go quietly into the history books.

Season ACE TS HR MH Classification
1950 Atlantic hurricane season 243 13 11 8 Above average (hyperactive)

2005 Atlantic hurricane season (ongoing) 236 26 14 7 Above average (hyperactive)

1995 Atlantic hurricane season 228 19 11 5 Above average (hyperactive)

*Note: This figure includes the season ACE up to and including the active Hurricane Epsilon as of 11 PM EDT (2300 UTC).On December 2, 2005, Hurricane Epsilon took the season ACE to second place behind 1950. As of December 6, Epsilon is still active.

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

EPSILON HAS SINCE LATE THIS MORNING BEEN MOVING DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210/8 WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. THIS MOTION IS KEEPING EPSILON
BENEATH THE AXIS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... SHELTERING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE FROM WIND SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS GRADUALLY ELONGATING... THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED TODAY. THE RAGGED EYE IS STILL CLOSED
AND CONVECTION WRAPS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITH
TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -60C. THE INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...
AS DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT... BUT I PREFER TO
STAY ON THE HIGH END UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF A TRUE
WEAKENING TREND.

A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO
CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SO EPSILON CANNOT STAY
BENEATH IT FOREVER. ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS IS MORE LIKE IT. STRONG
WIND SHEAR INCOMING FROM THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
INEVITABLY WEAKEN EPSILON. WHILE THE DECLINE OF EPSILON WILL
PROBABLY BE GRADUAL AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN
SHIPS AND GFDL IN KEEPING EPSILON A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 48
HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON
IS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME
WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. I HESITATE TO MENTION
THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER
ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO
THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES
NOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL
ALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE.


FORECASTER KNABB


I was looking at that last night..Epsilon has to achieve an ACE of 18.4 to tie the record..early this morning it was like 10.4.
Heres an interesting excerpt about a possible Zeta forming after Epsilon gets absorbs by a frontal system...

"WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON iS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. I HESITATE TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES
NOT EVOLVE..."
Happy B-day Torn... my daughter just had her b-day on Saturday..

thanks for all the info Hurricane.. how's the vacation going?
I will be getting some fact books and a forecasting book.
ok...Have a good day everyone..I need to go run a few errands... Happy Birthday once again Tony, I hope it's the best one yet.:)


Opps..forgot to say hello to Bilsfan..Hope youre having a good day and the roof is coming along Sherre.:)

If Epsilon can keep rewrapping the convection around its center, it can hold on to minimal hurricane intensity...watch for a specific trend lasting more than 3 hours.:)

















Sorry guys..I'm not sure why I created so much wasted space on the last post.

Thas awesome Tony... I can't help but be amazed by how much you and Colby know and I thought I was an expert at your ages.:)

It's going great Sherre...Thats amazing, I was typing that message for you to see later and after I post..there you are..a pleasant surprise as always.:)
ok..have a good day everyone.:)
Thanks billfan!
See ya hurricanechaser!
Hurricanechaser -

Is there a likelihood that Epsilon will dissipate over the next few hours or increase when it hits warmer water? I have a great friend out there in the vicinity, in a small rowing boat. 26 boats set out on riday to row across the Atlantic.

They are in the path of Eplison right now.
Man that sounds like one heck of a trip. How long does that take them? Sounds fun.
Well, not to answer for chaser, but even if the Epsilon dissapates, there will be quite a bit of after wake from the storm even though it may not be tropical force. How much abuse can one of them rowboats handle?
The record for a "pair" of rowers is 43 days. It is a distance of 2963 miles.
The boats are all made of fibreglass, but are not designed to battle with "big" waves or storm force winds.
Does anyone know where I can find some info on the ACE? Everyone's been talking about it, but I'm not sure what it is. Good luck to your friend, sandiquiz, I hope he stays safe.
Thanks - we are praying all of the rowers will be safe, and I would like to know what ACE is as well !!!
If they're small boats, going near Epsilon right now is near suicide. It's still a hurricane, and large swells will be all around the center.

I hesitate to mention
that most of the models forecast this extratropical system... after
absorbing Epsilon... to sag back to the south of 30n on day 5 to
the west of the Canary Islands. However that system does or does
not evolve... the official forecast anticipates Epsilon will
already have met its demise.


YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME.
what up this stoping in for av little bit

and what was that all about last night?
Just wanted to say hello to everyone and have good evening....Whats up Hurricane chaser? Hope everything is going well..........Later
98. OGal
Sandiquiz, I think there is a pair of female rowers from Purdue. Am I correct??
KRWZ, that was someone being terribly wrong and being annoyed that we disagreed.
OGal - Just checked the website and yes there is a pair of female rowers in a boat called American Fire. They are further north than my friends, so are even nearer to Epsilon and the bad weather.
Hope they are OK as well. Sandi
Hey neveryone.

Sorry i wasn't here for the question Sand,

However, their are some excellent bloggers on right now who can answer that question as well.

Honestly, Epsilon continues to fluctuate in intensity and this has been the overall trend for more than 36 hours where it weakens in eyewall convection for a couple of hours followed by a rewrapping of strong convection back around the eye.

This has allowed Epsilon to remain a minimal hurricane and theres no chance that anyone in the eyewall during the next 6 hours at least won't experience hurricane force conditions I'm afraid.

It should gradually weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours but will still maintain tropical storm intensity at the very least.

Right now, its continuing to retain hurricane intensity by keeping the eyewall intact more or less during each 6 hour trend...if we based intensity forecasts on 2 hours trends...we would have it ast 70 mph for two hours and back to 80 mph the next..however, hurricane force winds don't change that much in a two hour period so it has maintained the 75 mph intensity and any weakening in the next 12 hours will be very minor with hurricane force winds battering anyone within its eyewall.

They are crossing the atlantic in winter and not rigged for big waves????????????????????????
Hey KShurricane,

Heres the best site I've found with up to date ACE statistics..which now has Epsilon at 11.2....it has to get to 18.4 by itself with no Zeta to match the 1950 record.:)

Link
Thanks Hurricanechaser, It doesn't sound too good for them all does it? Winds of 75 mph - and I read somewhere that the outer edge can spred upto 150 miles from the centre, meaning it will be in their path sometime tonight or early tommorow.
Hey Weatherboyfsu...I'm doing great..I hope you are as well:)
What is the length and beam of these rowboats.
Tropical storm force winds which are defined as 39 mph sustained with higher gusts are reaching as far out as 150 miles which is still hazardous for anyone in that vicinity in a rowboat I'm afraid..within the 30 miles of the eye where the eyewall is has hurricane force winds which is the last place you wanna be in a small boat and as Colby already mentioned..it ha been generating huge swells tha are propagating much further than tha from its center.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM.
Tropical force winds are felt 125 miles from the center of this puppy. However looking at the shortwave, it seems that the pocket of convectiom that normally has been firing is getting torn apart by the shear. Next 3 to 4 hours are big for Epsilon, as we will see if that convection factory breaks down and can no longer support itself in shear of that magnitude. However Epsilon continues south and nearer to warmer waters.
It is important to note that the strongest winds Sand will be where the deepest convection is located ..so hopefully they will avoid it since Epsilon is being sheared badly outside of its strong intact eyewall.
The boats are between 20-26 feet. Room for two to row and a small cabin to sleep one at a time. There are four boats with 4 rowers and two smaller boats with a single rower!!!
Do they have communications to be aware of Epsilons future course?
Thanks for the link hurricanechaser. Hopefully Epsilon is it, but the way the nhc sounded in that last discussion I wouldn't rule out a Zeta. Do you think that low they mentioned could turn tropical like Delta and Epsilon?
My prayers are with them Sand! I am believing they will be ok and hopefully miss the core of this one.
Not trying to scare you, but that is to small a boat for to big of an ocean.
115. OGal
Sandi, if you find out anything at all about the boats please post the information on this blog. These two exceptional gals and they have worked so hard to have the opportunity to be part of this race. Do you know if there are any rescue boats (ha!) in the area??
lobcarl,
Looks like they are 26' length with about 5' beam.
Thanks for your info and your prayers. The webpage says all boat have been informed of the impending storm, but where can they go!
The larest Global models are hinting that it is a possibility.but it was only one run and its important to look for persistence as well in the forecast models over a longer period of time than even forecassting intensity trends with a particular storm. Most of the models run at 6 hour intervals..so if we get 3 or 4 runs indicating that trend..it suggests it could actually materialize. With Epsilon its about a 3 to 6 hour persistent trend one way or the other to truly gauge its future intensity.

In other words, if one does develop..thats what I would expect..another Hybrid like Delta and Epsilon which can achieve storm intensity this time of year.
Ogal,
Here is a link to the race news
I guess they never expected to be dodging full-fledged hurricanes in the middle of December in the North Atlantic with 22*C water temps.
There is one boat designated as a rescue vessel, but there are 26 boats out there and it is mighty big ocean.

And in reply to the comment - setting out in winter - they are heading south, and isn't it meant to be summer in the southern hemisphere?

Its important that they take immediate action to get to the weaker side of the storm where there they are in the strongest wind flow and try to avoid the deppest convection as well..need to stay away from the eyewall.
Thanks for putting on the link - I didn't know how to - sorry.
Hopefully..they are more than 24 hours away from Epsilons central core..if so, she may weaken some by then but still should be a moderate tropical storm at that time as well if not a little stronger.
Sorry, my poor typing skills...it should've read...

It's important that they take immediate action to get to the weaker side of the storm, where they aren't in the strongest wind flow and try to avoid the deepest convection as well..need to stay away from the eyewall.
Their positions are approx 23-24N and 22-25W. How far away is Epsilon?
I will keep them in my thoughts and Prayers and I hope you all have a good day..I have to get to the Post office within twenty minutes.:)
Got to go as well - bed calls.
thanks for all your kind words everyone.
Sandi
Just ope if there is any danger they get aboard the the rescue boat. They build boats every day.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml?
Using the 5pm advisory position they are at least 760 miles or ~1220 km away and probably farther. They've got time, but they should probably start planning ahead. About how fast are they moving?
Use this link to determine distance by their coordinates and Epsilons..I used the closet coordinates you gave me to Epsilon and I got 702 nm at 4 PM EST.

Link
Good job KS..you did the same:)
I gotta go before the post office closes..have a good night everyone:)
135. OGal
Sandi, I would think that there would be some form of satelite communication on the rescue vessel as well as perhaps in all of the racing boats. They would most likely know about the dangerous weather and would do their best to avoid the worst. This storm has been around for sometime so we have to hope they are safe. I did go to the website, thanks SouthCal, and that is a Purdue team.
I agree with your post KS:)
KS
I would guess 10 mph at their best, with tide and wind behind them.
Goodnight hurricanechaser. I probably better get off too, got college finals coming up <:( Hopefully tomorrow, I'll get on and look at "tropical storm" epsilon. Don't worry sandi, I'm sure the boat people know what to do.
The ever ready bunny hurricane named Epilson keeps on going,going,going.
To my surprise Epilson continues to maintain hurricane strength. I thought for sure the weakening trend was begining last night. It hasn't, in fact it may be getting better organized this evening, perhaps because it is moving into progressively warmer waters.
Epsilon is really dying this time. The well defined convective band has faded, the eyewall has several gaps in it and the storm center is becoming increasingly rapid. Nonetheless Epsilon holds on to hurricane strength by constantly playing "musical chairs" with the eyewall weaknesses, filling them with new blow ups of convection even as new holes appear elsewhere. This trend cannot continue much longer. The once massive circulation field has contracted, the spiral banding is nearly gone and only the increasingly ragged core remains.

I would give Epsilon the 10 PM advisory, still a hurricane, still holding on, but I suspect by morning she'll begin to rapidly fall apart. Nonetheless this is one for the record books, and we'll have to watch for the ACE record...
sandi ~ i'm far from caught up but wanted to post the wave hieghts in the area for you. they're running 20 ft or so. Surely a bigger boat is amongst them. Right? Someone tell me about a bigger boat.
EPSILON, THANKS FOR THE GIFT - HAPPY BIRTHDAY TORN!
chaser~ i see the nws is picking up on what i said this morning, the ukmet has consistantly been showing this development (possible Zeta) since yesterday morning. once i saw the gfs jump on board at the 06Z run this morning, it was enough trend for me to blog about it before noon today. The ukmet has been good about spotting these extratropical ones forming.
yeah, everyone can keep saying "blah blah blah epsilon is weakening blah blah blah" but wow, it hasn't, even though it should have been extratropical many days ago. haha, i'm just saying everyone has got to be kidding themselves if they really think they know whats going on with this storm.



with that, let's hope it does fall apart ASAP. i want there to be something left of my grandparent's place in florida when i visit them come spring. good grief.

as for myself, i'm more concerned with the prospect of near 0 deg temps, -15 wind chills and up to 5 inches of snow tomorrow night! thats really cold for us for early december, or even most of the winter. dangerous stuff. i need to get my car emergency kit ready and some firewood in case the power would happen to go out at all.

it's really hard to think theres a hurricane out there right now...sheesh
HAPPY B-DAY TORN, YOU HAVE MAIL
Hey Skyepony,

I just looked at the models for the first time this afternoon, didn't realize that the UKMET had been forecasting a development for almost 36 hours...it is certainly possible then...like we both think..it would have to come from an Extratropical transition especially that far east just like both Delta and Epsilon.:)
I gotta be honest though, I don't personally forecast development unless I see a low actually develop at the surface..until then it's a possibilty for me.

I guess I would be in the category of slightly conservative on my forecasts as opposed to very conservative with the NHC.:)
Skyepony,
Yes, it appears that there are two Support boats. One is referred to in the news as a "68 ft. ocean going yacht", I have no information about the second, but would expect about the same. I also know that there is communication capability between each of the race rowboats and the support boats from the news.
Wow!...all the major models are now forecasting the Low to develop near the Canary Islands in about 3 to 4 days.
That's quite a consensus.:)
i so not like it when they do that it make me mad lolol
I have been predicting one more named storm by the end of the season/year two weeks back in my blog after Epsilon and that it would have to be a Hybrid which seems like the only real candidate is the Extratropical Low that should develop from a passing frontal zone. A few days ago I lowered my expectations for Zeta to 60/40 for development and 50/50 for one before next season officially begins.

I now would change that to 70/30 for Zeta and 40/60 for another before start of next season in June 2006.
In other words, I'm expecting Zeta to develop but doubting another before next June as it stands now.
Hey there David..How are you doing?
hey hurricanechaser what up so when will we see the Z storm so that way i can say i have see it all this year from A to Z
wow, the bamm has her crossin the bridge, if that happens zeta shouldn't be forming so quick. epsilon is sure a persistant one. it seems there is alot of energy still out there. As the models, continued to predict eppy's demise over the last several days, they've also showed storms developing here and there with no real agreement until today.
a to z lol~ good one David
hmmm last night there was a lol on her and to there no one on her where is ever one tonight

Epsilon looks a little stronger to me than she did last night at this time.
On the ACE index, Epsilon ranks 9th out of 26 storms this year for total energy released, and should pass Irene and Maria to move to 7th place at least.

(Ivan and Frances last year released more energy than our top storm this year, Wilma)
Eppy has finally let go of the front she was tapping into. Here's a good 24 hr loop of her trying to run the bridge of least shear. She's getting smaller since she's lost touch with that front. Let's see if she gains convection through the night off the warmer waters. Wonder if she'll tap off the next front like she did the last or loose the ability over the warmer waters.
She continues to get better organized tonight and I bet this trend continues NHC will have to bump up the winds again. The eye is about the best that I've seen it over the past few days. Remember the waters are getting warmer in the direction it is heading. I know think more records are going to be broken by Epsilon.
162. code1
HAPPY B'DAY TONY!!! I see you got one of your wishes with Episilon. lol Hope you have many, many more.
C
StSimon~ That seems about right with the ACE placing with Frances. She was slloooowwwww. We talked about going for a long walk if the eye passed over us, like where ever she went. lol, she was goin 2 to 3 mph according to the local news. We were confined to the yard of the hunkerdown house for more than 1 1/2 days. By sunday morning trees were falling left & right, even though the wind had dropped to low cat 1, between the saturated ground & the continuos beating, things were giving up. Wilma, was way easier (unless it happened to take your roof) cause it was moving so fast. I'd rather do a fast cat 3 (<6hours) than a cat 2 longer than 24hrs. What was the ACE for Jeanne? she was barely faster than Frances, a little smaller but stronger.
I think the Energizer Bunny gave up now! Epsillon Building Convection again.
Hey again everyone:)

I was just analyzing the latest Infrared satellite loop and she continues her flunctuations...although it has been able to wrap some more impressive convection around its eye for about a 3 hour period which is the longest that had occured in more than 36 hours. However, it has started to wrap in some dry air as usual on its NW side of the circulatuionn which is close to penetrating her central core once more. It is definately a purely tropical system now and has been since earlier this morning as the frontal energy is gone for it to feed off. Therefore, It is left with the increasingly warm waters as well as the increasing shear that persists from the WSW and SW which is keeping Epsilon from increasing in strength. Once again is all about persistence for 3 to 6 hours to determine a significant trend either way. The only consistent trend has been these 2 hour flunctuations I've described alternating for roughly the past 36 hours holding Epsilon as a borderline hurricane and as long as it can continue to generate healthy convection around the eye greater than 75%, the NHC will not downgrade her.

On the other hand, the shear has really done a number on the rest of its circulation and its pretty much a tight central core of deep convection and if it gives in to the increased shear and dry air makes more headway into the center, it will certainly slowly but gradually weaken.

Right now at this very moment..it remains a 75 mph hurricane and will do so as long as it keeps that eyewall convection.

Link

* * * EPSILON MYSTERY SOLVED * * *

Scientists have finally discovered the true purpose of Epsilon's existence.

If she doesn't see her shadow, we get 6 more weeks of hurricane season !

If you look closely at the Infrared with the link I've provided, you can see her eyewall convection increasing on its NE side and wrapping all the way around as Westerly shear has completely sheaded all the convection in its NW quadrent which was the exact opposite this time last night. Look at the dry air getting closer to the eye in the NW quadrant..Question is whether it will penetrate the core or these fluctuations wil continue as it moves over progressively warmer waters which has made it a purely tropical system yet more suceptable to strong shear. The next 3 to 6 hour trend will say alot as usual.

Link
LMAO @ Cal!

I'm starting to go with the BAMM now...*hates this stupid storm* I think this could go Cape Verdes if it rides the low-shear road...LOL.
That was shreaded..not sheaded..lol:)

Westerly shear has completely sheaded all the convection in its NW quadrent which was the exact opposite this time last night.
I think I can speak for everyone when I say we are tired for waiting another 3 to 6hrs lol.
Someone not pay thier insurance this year? This storm has it out for someone!
Just a note, if you look at the larger ir of the entire Atlantic, you can see what appears to be strong evidence for the front helping epsilon grow, or at the very least get to where it was. Cut the cord and down it goes. Looks like its attempting to get its act together again though

Link
hey hurricanechaser what up so when will we see the Z storm so that way i can say i have see it all this year from A to Z
As of 10 pm NHC now says the end is near starting in 12 hours and has maintain 75 mph and only slight weakening for next 12 hours and then rapid weakening after
Ha Ha KRWZ, now all we need is the kitchen sink and it will be through.
LOl...progressive...I feel your pain because I stsyed up till after the 4 AM EST advisory waiting for a 3 to 6 hour consistent trend one way or the other and for 36 hours now...it trends one way for 2 hours then the other for 2...I've never seen such fluctuations before over such a long period which is keeping Epsilon at the same intensity.

I was just thinking about another reason why we ALL including the NHC are having difficulty predicting this storms future intensity which if we make enough forecasts will get it right soon enough..lol:)

TYhink of how few tropical storms have been recorded much less observed by satellite in December not too even mention hurricanes.

The models, forecasters and the like don't have much experience in this Atmospheric environment for this is very little climatilogical to go either. Its like trying to play golf once every couple of years and expecting to do as well as you would if you played once a week.
"THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...
EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS."

Poor, poor forecasters. I feel bad for laughing so hard at that line.
I will believe it when I see it. They have been saying that for days now. Everyone has been wrong with this storm including the models. The now infamous "1" has been moving down the forcast track for several days now.
179. code1
Hi everyone. Thanks for the updates. When will it end?? St. Simon's, good to see you.
Wow!..let me try that again in english:)

The models, forecasters and the like don't have much experience in this Atmospheric environment for there is very little climatilogical data to go on either. It's like trying to play golf once every couple of years and expecting to do as well as you would if you played once a week.
I was responding to Matilda101 Chaser. Yeah I know what you mean, they have to be pulling thier hairs out.
LOL...I stated in my blog last night..it wouldn't make it past the 10 PM advisory and I was wrong.:)

I will now try it one last time...it is weakening overall in regards to its overall circulation and I will be very surprised if its still at hurricane intensity past the next 12 hours...meaning I don't see any logical reason to expect it to maintain hurricane intensity past the 10AM EST advisory tomorrow morning.

However, I said "logical" reason... not much logical rationale has applied to forecasting this storm:)
Have a quarter Chaser, I will flip you for it?
hey hurricanechaser where the Z storm
I can see the guys at the NHC spinning a big wheel, like wheel of fortune. Comone T4.0 show me a weaken.
Although it has fluctuating in intensity back and forth for two hour intervals helping it maintain its current intensity for more than 24 hours...the overall circulation has been eroded during each of those two twelve hour time periods...if that trend continues...the shear and dry air will slowly weaken it to below hurricane intensity within the next 12 hours or so.

I know I'm setting myself up for failure but thats my expectation...how confident... 60/40...not that confident.
LOL..Progressive...I said this last night that I believe my four and a half year old could do as good a job as predicting Epsilons future intensity for the next 6 to 12 hours...I still think it apples.:)
That was a reference only to "me"...left it out:)
Be right back..I'm going to go ask her.:)
I want to see one more really in the 4 am before I believe it to weaken. It is really, really, really going to weaken now.
If you're still there LakeWorth, thanks!
LOL... She says it will still be a hurricane past 12 hours.:)

If shes right...I'm going to let her write my blogs from now on.:)

Or at least..my prediction and hers both on the same page.:)
It is nice to see they can squeeze in some humor through all this.
You got your Birthday Hurricane Torn, yeeeeee haaaaa.
man..What was I thinking...I'm getting too caught up in the science and all that education..I now know where I went wrong..hold on..I know how to determine Epsilons future intensity and whether she will stil be a hurricane past 12 hours...
I bet she would like that Chaser.
Thanks Progressive.

And one last reference to last night, my mailbox is now closed to hatemail.
Epsillon was holding for Torn's Bday, now it will weaken.
Darn..even that won't work for Epsilon..tried flippin a coin and it went behind my computer desk:)
Well we'll just have to play a game of ship, capitan and crew then.
hurricanechaser you got mail
Its tails meaning it will not be a hurricane past 12 hours.

So thats three different predictions..

My education says not past 12 hours.

My 4 and half year old Daughter says It will be.

Coin Flip says its tails and Will not.

ooops..tried another coin flip...thats heads...another score for the hurricane past 12 hours.

So we have a 50/50 forecast right there.:)

I'm now feeling very confident that it is 50/50 that it will either still be a hurricane or weaken to tropical storm.:)
Now THERE's some logical thinking Progressive! :)
Hey David..I went out in the cold and checked it and there's no mail in my mailbox.:(

Be right back..I'm going to give it another try.:)
I am 100% sure that Epsilon will NOT be a hurricane......






IN JANUARY.:)
206. kdoc
I will have to use stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation in a conversation in the morning. Really great blog Doc!

Where you from Torn? Up by Lake Michigan right?
hurricanechaser you got e mail
I'm sorry David..I was being silly...I got it and just sent you one as well...thanks David:)
210. haydn
Should we take bets on when the demise of Eppy will be? lol!
Nah fun is over, gotta be serious now. Eppy is building.
About 12 miles south of the Srn tip of Lk. MI.
213. haydn
OK I agree. just looked at a picture. Convection is pretty strong on the NE.
See the bounce SSW due to the shear to Eppy's south?
Grew up in South Bend, IN Torn. COOOOLD up there tonight.
216. haydn
Another thought... Will the number of named storm days be broken? I have 118.5 and counting.
The convection looks like it will wrap around, and if it does, then Epsilon will look as impressive as ever. Look at the rest of the structure.
218. haydn
Progressive it's not as cold in SC.
Hnestly this hurricane season and the Epsilons simply go to show there is no such thing as an expert in Tropical Meteorology...just some with me experience and skill..but not an expert.

Dr. Masters states in His blog here that Dr. Gray predicted 15 storms for this season on May 31 asnd we got 26.

However, he says if we don't use this year and go ONLY with the other five years before this one...then in four of those not even all five...Dr. Gray was within 3 of the exact number.

Since 11 has been the last 40 year average of named storms..if I predict 14 every season...I should also be within 3 as well.

Thats alot of room for error to not include this season and exclude another one he was off by more than 3 and then say he was within three on the other four seasons.

Thas like saying don't add this season into the damage figures either. Of course it counts.:)

Not being sarcastic...just stating the obvious that NONE of us are experts...noone will completely understand this complicated and inexact science.

However, Dr. Grays research has advanced the knowledge amongst the Tropical community over the past 20 years like very few others and I respect Him greatly for it.

This was just to explain how difficult tropical forecasting really is.

The "1" keeps moving down the line.
Honestly this hurricane season and the Epsilons simply go to show there is no such thing as an expert in Tropical Meteorology...just some with more experience and skill..but not an expert.


Correcting typos..sorry.:)
thank for the e mail hurricanechaser


i got a ? for you hurricanechaser how long did the O storm last and how long the the E #2 have last
"The end is in sight. It really really is"

LMAO.
That is why I moved away Haydn, and yes I moved to the soon to be Hurricane Capital of the US, not really, but starting to think the snow is more bareable.
Hey David..add this link..its all the stats for everyone of this seasons storms.:)

To answer your specfic question...Emily lasted 11 days while Ophelis lasted 13 days according to this website.:)

I hope this helps.:)

Link
I bet there is NOT one of us who were brave enough to ty forecasting this storm at least every 6 hours like the NHC who weren't wrong at least once..I know I have been. So I honestly give them some slack.:)
227. haydn
Progressive, As a kid I liked the snow. Now that I can drive, the thought of all that salt and dirt isn't fun. We may have snow, but it melts the same day. .....

KRWZ, do you mean Ophelia and Epsilon?
hurricanechaser and how long have this hurricane last did it pass the O storm or not yet?
Just like I do Dr. Gray with his busted forecast this year...They are doing their best and wil be wrong on occasion but at least they are putting in long hours away from their families for our sake and others.:)
Yes I agree Chaser, like I said I was glad to see them put some humor in the last advisory, they need a little break. They were steadfast this year.
Thanks Haydn,

I didn't catch the E 2...:)
I just had a relative move down from Akin, SC. I go golfing in SC alot, It is really nice there.
234. haydn
Chaser, In this site archives Ophelia went from 9/7 to 9/18 as s named storm. Epsilon so far is 11/29 to 12/7.
Thas shows humility and I always respect that.:)

The truth is they are the best and even My little girl can get a forecast right from time based on statistical probability..but that doesn't make her nor I more knowledgable than them even if we get one right that they get wrong.

In short, I agree Progressive.:)

I think I'm a little Obssesive-Compulsive..need to make my comments shorter.:)

It took me 3 hours to write my blog before the last one.lol
Good Evening everyone, checking back into the blog and ive noticed the we've still got a hurricane!
it says 9/6 to 9/18 on the Wickipedia list..which site are you refering to?

I misread it anyway..should've been 12 days not 13..sleep deprivation really kicking in.:)

Thanks for the correction Progressive.:)
Not really Chaser, it is good to be through when people who are trying to learn are looking at your blogs.
239. haydn
I prefer the clear gulf waters to our muddy coast. Though I like to track hurricanes, I don't have a desire to live near the coast. In Aiken there are many, many golf courses. I think some may come to play when a storm. What else to do while away and awaiting the possibility of your home being blown to bits.
Wow!..I'm doing bad bad bad..I meant thanks Haydn for the correction.:)
That was Haydn Chaser not I
Thanks for the kind sentiments Progressive.:)
Have we broken the all-time record for named storm days yet???

"the end is in sight. It really really is..." LOL
Not till I see one more really TampaSteve lol
245. haydn
Ophelia did start on 9/6 as a depression. I was counting the time the storm was given a name. So 9/6 is correct too.
I know...sorry guys..I just corrected myself in the last post...I think I really need to go get a nap...It was great talking with all of you and I hope each of you have a wonderful night:)
247. haydn
According to my calculations we are at 118.5.
goodnight hurricane
Good point Haydn... I appreciate everyones input..together we help one another..Don't want to give out misinformation..thanks again.:)

I hope evryone has a goodnight.:)
Thanks Miami..good to se you on again..goodnight all:)
Np Chaser you have knowledge. You have to assume that most looking at your blog have none, and most don't. So being through is a good thing, people learn and are more able to make thier assumptions. You and others are doing a great thing, keep it going.
252. haydn
According to Dr. Gray, 103.25 up through Beta. Then I checked this site for the rest of NSD for Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon.
wow look at this from the K

Damages $80+ billion (The costliest tropical cyclone of all time)

i think there going to update that to a cat 5 at land fall with winds of 160mph

the A storm of 1992 was 26.4 billion and it was up date from a cat 4 to a cat 5 at land fall so why not will they do it with the K storm any one
Would have to say it is a cute little cane, about to wrap again.
255. haydn
The eye is closed again. .....
256. haydn
I don't remember what K was at 1st landfall. I heard a story of the wind making the waters of the Mississippi stand up and blow back. Anyone heard this? Winds were in the 140's so they say. Does post analysis take long? Some radar stations were knocked out. Those are a source for doppler wind velocities. I guess these were used along with amount of damage to upgrade Andrew.
257. haydn
Convection starting to wrap around the NW
Calling for -6F by me.
I don't think so KWRZ, alot of those dollars are from LA and MS coast which saw a somewhat weakend storm. Still had the surge of a cat 5 which is what did all of the damage. I have a friend that lives 10 miles inland in Biloxi, MS and only had a couple of shingles blown off.
haydn the K storm made land fall with 145mph winds
Coming up to South Bend on the 19th Haydn, hopefully it warms up a little before then. Was there 2 weeks ago for a funeral and it was 83 when I left and 8 when I arrived in Chicago 3 hours later, BRRRRRRRR>
Progressive, if memory serves me (it hasn't lately), Biloxi was right on the edge of the eyewall, with Gulfport in it.
torn you have hate mail? How messed up is that. And if you are around, hey code :)
264. haydn
Thanks Where did you find that? I'd like to see what Andrew was.
No hate mail. Just said last night that they could send me hate mail if Epsilon was not a hurricane this morning. No hate mail! :)
Yeah it was, I have another friend that lived 2 blocks from the ocean in Biloxi. Lived in a 10 story apt building and was leveled. He left thank god, left for good, he is living back home in South Bend.
As Epsilon gets over warmer and warmer water (moving between 73-74 now, maybe the convection will get taller and maybe then the shear will be able to strip the convection away. Which means that Epsilon will be the first hurricane I have heard of killed by warming water.
Good night. I need some sleep! Badly! Really badly!!
Katrina had an all-time record surge of 30 feet, and smashed NINETY THOUSAND SQUARE MILES (that's bigger than the whole state of Idaho!) with wind, surge, and waves.

Truly one for the ages...
Night Torn, sleep well
haydn the A storm of 1992 made land fall with winds of 165mph cat 5
Link


Link


haydn her are some link for you too take a look and this is my frist time sending two link at one time so let me no if they work
273. haydn
KRWZ. You beat me to the answer of my question... Thanks.. I just looked this up in google and found the same answer on a site. They used the 90% principle for reduction at the 10,000 flight level. According to what I read, flight level winds were 162 knots (186mph) by an aircraft in the storm at landfall. 90% is 167.4 or rounded to 165 as in the record books. We will never know the exact velocity. They got the 90% principle from the invention of the GPS dropwindsonde in 1997. After this year the record books were changed to align with the principle.
274. haydn
Here's the link I used.

Link
275. haydn
Your links worked
haydn what do you think they will do with the K storm will they keep it has a cat 4 or will they up date it to a cat 5 at land fall like the A storm of 1992
hey everyone,

David,

There is no chance that Katrina will be upgraded to a category 5...the HRD is actually pushing for a 115 mph category three.
I suspect that they will keeep it a four maybe a 135 mph four. Although I disagree adamantly.
279. haydn
I think this will happen. If not, we will have to say rules are meant to be broken and this season will live in infamy.
look like the nhc is doing a lol why 115mph now is this for the frist land fall or all they way
281. haydn
Chaser... That's absurd. Why would a push be made to make K a cat 3? 115????? 28-30' surge and damage the size of Idaho
I don't think so KWRZ, Andrew had severe wind damage well inland (Homestead). Did not see that with Katrina, just along the coast, caused by surge.
283. haydn
By the way, convection looks like it's increasing on Eppy.
haydn: category is based only on winds. The cat-5 storm surge was built up from before, but doesn't matter for the landfall category.
Had family in the area at that time, pictures are very depressing.
286. haydn
true.... How would a surge stay with winds dying down?
Hey progressive..please read my blog on this subject. I filmed 120 mph F3 tornado damage more than 50 miles inland.
Agree Haydn, but if you look at Dvorak loop, dry air is right behind it.
Eppy seems to be growing with the warmer waters.
The models changed again, a few hours ago the BammD followed the BammM, now it's got her going to Africa. Earlier many more of the models showed her getting pulled & shreaded northward.
With Katrina Chaser or Andrew?
291. haydn
Progressive, how are things now? My church sent truckloads of supplies to Biluxi and people to work. I've seen pictures of the devastation. I've also seen pictures of people receiving help that the media will never report.
Katrina:)


This is from Dr. Masters first blog about it.

Was Katrina much weaker at landfall than originally thought? That's what analysis of the Katrina's wind data by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division is showing. Dr. Powell is the world's expert on windspeeds measured in landfalling hurricanes, so his findings are being carefully studied by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as they prepare their final report on Katrina. The NHC advisories had Katrina as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph when it struck the Louisiana coast near Buras, and a Category 3 hurricane with 125 winds when it passed 35 miles east of New Orleans. But Dr. Powell's analysis suggests that Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at first landfall, and that the strongest winds that affected New Orleans were 95 mph. The analysis was done using data sources that were unavailable to the NHC in real time, including surface anemometers as well as Doppler radar measurements of wind speed from NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft. While the results are still considered preliminary, I believe that when the official National Hurricane Center report on Katrina comes out in early 2006, Katrina will be "demoted" to a Category 3 hurricane. The full story was printed by the Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Many of the new ground based wind measurements were published on the New Orleans National Weather Service web site on Friday, October 7, in their post-storm report on Katrina. The highest sustained winds measured at any ground-based site were 90 mph on Lake Pontchartrain. The highest gust measured on the ground was 135 mph in Poplarville, MS. Many wind measurement sites failed during the storm, so we will have to rely on aircraft and Doppler radar to arrive at the true wind speeds of Katrina at landfall. Here's a few highlights of the highest winds measured at the ground during Katrina, before instrument failure:

New Orleans Lakefront Airport: sustained winds of 69 mph, gusting to 86 mph.
Biloxi's Keesler Air Force Base: sustained winds of 54 mph, gusting to 90 mph.
Gulfport airport: 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph.
Lake Ponchartrain mid-lake buoy: 90 mph, gusting to 114 mph.

Many of us heard that Category 5 winds were measured by the National Weather Service in Katrina. These rumors were aired as fact by television stations and other media outlets during the storm. However, as the post-storm report above outlines, these were just rumors, and no such winds were measured. If you listened to NPR last night, you also might have heard the story of how television stations in Baton Rouge were reporting a huge crime wave in Baton Rouge after the hurricane, and that an armed gang had even taken over the Mayor's office. These reports, later found out to be completely untrue, led to four-hour waits to buy guns at local gun stores in Baton Rouge. According to NPR, there was no increase in crime in Baton Rouge after the hurricane. The media, at times, did a poor job in separting fact from fiction during the storm, and there were in reality no sustatined winds above Category 1 measured on the ground during Katrina.

Obviously, a demotion of Katrina to Category 3 status would have political consequences. The levees of New Orleans were supposed to be able to withstand a Category 4 hurricane, and it appears as if they were done in by winds of only 95 mph--what one would find in a strong Category 1 hurricane. Still, Katrina at landfall in Mississippi was no ordinary hurricane. It brought the largest storm surge ever recorded in an Atlantic Hurricane to shore in Mississippi--28 feet, measured at the Hancock County, Mississippi EOC in Bay St. Louis. This is over five feet higher than the previous record set in Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969. So while the winds at landfall in Mississippi may have been Category 3 or even lower, the storm surge was a Category 5 plus! The storm surge levels that breached the New Orleans levees were probably characteristic of at least a Category 3 hurricane, and perhaps a Category 4. As both myself and Steve Gregory have emphasized in our blogs, the Saffir-Simpson scale of ranking hurricanes is inadequate; an additional scale ranking storms by damage potential from winds, storm surge and rainfall is needed. The reason no such scale has been implemented yet is that the NHC fears the added complexity may serve only to confuse the public. This is a valid concern, considering 40% of New Orleans' population before Katrina was illiterate, making hurricane education a very difficult undertaking in this city. Add to this the fact that many areas of the booming U.S. coast are being populated by hurricane neophytes, who just moved to the coast from areas that don't have hurricanes. Perhaps now that Katrina has gotten our attention, though, hurricane education will be an easier task, and we can start the talk about implementing a new damage scale.

Jeff Masters


even our local weather guy is "getting into the act" ala..NHC...."Epsilon will die evenutally...all models say so,", maybe in February.......
294. haydn
Progressive, I just looked up the Dvorak loop at this link. I don't understand what you mean. New term for me


Link
Here was my response.:)

Hey everyone,

I have chosen to write this blog in response to Dr. Masters Blog from a couple of days ago about Hurricane Katrina possibly only being a Category One hurricane at the Mississippi Landfall. He wrote this blog in response to an article which appeared in the Sun-Sentinal Times which highlights the findings from a Dr. Mark Powell with the Hurricane Research Division. Please see Dr. Masters blog to provide the much needed background information and the links provided to better appreciate why I am offering this rebuttal. Its important to note that Dr. Masters himself isn't endorsing this view point, but is simply discussing the realistic possibility of Hurricane Katrina being downgraded. I will also give a quick update on any future tropical development at the conclusion of this rebuttal.


Why Katrina wasn't a Category One at landfall.

Ok everyone. First of all, I experienced first-hand the sustained category one plus wind speeds from Katrina 65 miles inland at South Hattiesburg, MS. I was filming the action from 10:15 am CDT to 3:00pm CDT at a location that was exactly .01 miles (next door basically)to the Forrest County EOC that officially recorded a maximum wind gust of 100 mph before the instrument failed. They estimated the time of this measurement at 1 pm CDT and I was there to physically observe the winds intensify up until 1:40 pm CDT. Moreover, the Jones County EOC in Laurel, MS. which is 100 miles inland recorded a peak wind of 110 mph before they also experienced instrument failure around 2 pm CDT. In addition, there was another officially recorded peak wind gust measured in Ellisville, MS. which is located between Hattiesburg and Laurel at 114 mph before that Anemometer failed as well around 1:30 pm CDT. Most important of all, these are actual recorded and verifiable wind speeds. Thus, they don't require a Doctorate (no offense intended here)to understand that each of these locations experienced wind gusts exceeding 120 mph and most likely even greater. Its foolish for anyone regardless of their background to suggest Katrina was a category one hurricane at its third landfall along the Mississippi coastline. If true, it would be extremely unlikely for a strong category one in a weakening phase nonetheless, to deliever wind gusts exceeding 120 mph on the coast itself, much less more than 100 miles inland! Currently, Hurricane Dennis had a maximum recorded wind gust of 121 mph at Navarre Beach in the right front quadrant of this strong Category three hurricane at landfall. It is correctly categorized with sustained winds of 120 mph at landfall. Moreover, it was also in a weakening phase as it crossed the coastline as well. In this hurricane, I filmed the action from the still very intense eyewall just east of Atmore, Al. which is about 40 miles inland from the coast where peak winds are officially estimated to have exceeded 100 mph. This is just one example of many where major hurricanes make landfall and the land based data doesn't correspond to the peak winds that actually existed. This is the result of the anemometers getting destroyed or experiencing system failure well before the powerful eyewall moves through these areas. As noted in the post storm report which can be found on the Jackson, Mississippi NWS website (please see link address listed below), highly experienced NWS personnel surveyed exstensive and extreme damage equivilent to an F3 tornado for the hardest hit areas at the inland locations that experienced the very destructive northeast eyewall of this intense category three hurricane as it moved inland. They also observed and documented exstensive damage of F1 and F2 tornado intensity throughtout all these areas as far north as Meridian Mississippi which is roughly 150 miles inland. In addition, they state that F1 tornado type damage was noted in areas even farther north of that. WOW! all of this extraordinary damage from a weakening Category one at landfall. I have heard the suggestion made that this damage and the peak recorded winds could be attributed to brief tornados. Absolutely not the case! I was there In South Hattiesburg, MS. and witnessed the extraordinary straightline winds blast through with the still very powerful right front quadrant of this storm. I also filmed the aftermath which was all clearly the result of straightline winds gusting over 100 mph. Many people understandably assume that this type of astonishing inland damage much be attributed to tornadoes. The reason they mistakingly make this assumption is that few people rarely witness the destructive force of a straightline wind exceeding 100 mph. In reality, one could think of Katrinas inland progression comparable to a huge 25-40 mile wide tornado that brought F1 damage more than 150 miles inland. For those who still wish to attribute these extreme winds and resultant damage to tornadoes, it must be realized that there were ony 11 tornadoes officially identified by doppler radar and none of these were noted in the aforementioned areas referrenced above. All of this doesn't take into account the officially recorded (not estimated by someone who was presumably thousands of miles away at the time of this reading)peak wind gust of 134.5 mph at Popularville, MS. which is roughly 50 miles inland if I'm not mistaken. If Dr. Powell wishes to downgrade Katrina to a strong category one at landfall on the Mississippi coastline, then He needs to upgrade it shortly thereafter back to a significant category three as it passed through Popularville and then weakening down to a Strong category two as it moved through areas farther north of there. Shortly thereafter, reclassify it back to a strong category one roughly 100 miles inland. Naturally, this sounds absurd to suggest such a thing on my part. However, I find it just as absurd to suggest Katrina was a weakening category one hurricane at landfall and still have been able to produce wind gusts exceeding 100 mph more than 100 miles inland. As is always the case, It is extremely rare for land based anemometers to come close to actually recording winds characteristic of a storms true intensity due to malfunctioning equipment in such extraordinary winds. It stands to reason that areas that bore the absolute brunt of Katrinas strongest winds along the coast had to experience winds exceeding the 134.5 mph gust at Popularville some 50 miles inland. For the sake of argument, lets assume that the coastal areas received the same peak winds. If so, a weakening category one hurricane cannot produce a wind gust that high. It would take at least a minimal category three to do so. Based upon Dr. Powells new theory, I guess legendary Hurricane Camille which is currently listed as a powerful category five with (estimated) sustained 190 mph winds at landfall will need to be downgraded to a strong category three perhaps! LOL. In short, its ridiculous to suggest Katrina was only a category one at the Mississippi landfall based upon all the recorded facts in contrast to one mans opinion based upon experimental techniques. Furthermore, the coastal locations didn't record wind speeds at anytime after about 5 am CDT, well before Katrina plowed ashore at 10 am CDT. At that point, they were just beginning to encounter wind gusts approaching hurricane force. Please see the NWS link for the post storm report on the New Orleans NWS website. Please remember that the times listed by all observations are in the standard UTC format. In the Central Daylight time zone, simply subtract five hours in military time to determine the exact time these measurements were made. Based upon Dr. Powells new theory, I must've only experienced a powerful tropical storm here in Wilmington, N.C. back in 1996 when category three hurricane Fran came ashore. Then again, that was quite a powerful tropical depression that the residents of La. experienced from strong category one hurricane Lili back in 2002. I find it ironic that they decide to upgrade Hurricane Andrew from category four to a strong category five for the area where they experienced it 10 years after the fact which I'm not disputing. On the othe hand, It doesn't seem plausible how they could determine that Katrina was only a strong category one hurricane a few weeks later in spite of all the official data to the contrary. I sincerely hope that the NHC takes all of the aforementioned facts into account and doesn't downgrade hurricane Katrina to such a low intensity. In my humble opinion, it will be a disservice to all those who experienced the fury of a powerful category three hurricane with an enormous category five storm surge. These traumatized residents are currently trying to put their lives back together emotionally, physically, and financially. Too many of these people are homeless adjusting to a life in the near term without the basic essentials we so easily take for granted. How will they feel if they are told that they only experienced a strong category one hurricane that devastated their lives and in too many cases, took the lives of their friends, neighbors, and loved ones. Personally, I believe it will only cause more hardship and confusion since the overwhelming evidence suggests otherwise. I apologize if I appear to be too harsh in my assessment of Dr. Powells theory and don't intend for this to be a question of his integrity. However, I certainly have no reservations in questioning the methology He used to support his claims. Unfortunately, the official landfall intensity will ultimately come down to the subjectivity of those who are responsible for analyzing the data as a result of the vast majority of the weather stations being disabled before they could record the peak measurements. There is one thing that isn't left to subjectivity on my part or anyone elses for that matter which is the truth. In other words, the truth will not and cannot change regardless of ones personal opinion of it. Its very definition ensures it will always remain constant and beyond reproach. Unfortunately, only God knows the absolute truth as to the precise intensity of Katrinas winds at landfall. Consequently, the rest of us are left to debate this issue and formulate our own personal estimates. In this case, the evidence seems to overwhelmingly support a landfall intensity of at least a category three. This is my personal opinion based upon all of the aforementioned factual observations listed above.

Here is the link to the NWS sites, Please copy and paste in browser to visit these websites.

Jackson, MS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/katrina/

New Orleans, La.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/html/psh_katrina.htm

Important retraction on my part from my blog that was posted earlier.

I am retracting the statement questioning Dr. Powells motives. I had mentioned "that I wonder if there aren't personal or political overtones that may be skewing the subjectivity of his analysis." In retrospect I feel it is inappropriate for me to question a persons motives without just cause. However, I do stand by my objections to his flawed subjective analysis
Still in the clearing stages last I heard about 2 weeks ago, Going to look much worse before it can get better. The Treasure Bay Casino that took my $150 bucks 2 months before, was washed ashore. It will take a while to get several casino's out of the road. As for clean-up, check back in the spring to see some real progress is what he told me.
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 31


Statement as of 10:00 PM EST on December 06, 2005



the end is in sight. It really really is. But in the meantime...
Epsilon continues to maintain hurricane status. Hi-res data from
the 2037z Quikscat pass showed some very reasonable-looking 60 kt
vectors in much of the eyewall...and allowing for the horizontal
resolution of the instrument...it is likely that there are still
some 65 kt winds present in the circulation. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are also still 65 kt. Water vapor
imagery...however...shows northwesterly flow beginning to impinge
on and disrupt the outflow to the north of the cyclone. The strong
frontal system that moved off the eastern Seaboard this morning is
sweeping eastward...and very strong upper-level northwesterlies
ahead of this trough are forecast to overtake Epsilon in about 24
hours. The northwesterly upper flow should be strong enough to
shear away the convection...leaving Epsilon as a remnant low to be
absorbed when the surface front arrives in 48 to 72 hours.
The initial motion is 215/10...with steering provided by a deep
layer ridge to the north and west of the cyclone. This general
motion should continue for another 36 hours or so until the cyclone
shears off...at which point the motion is less certain. Steering
currents ahead of the approaching front are likely to be
weaker...so little motion is shown just prior to absorption by the
front. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and is closest to the GFS and FSU superensemble.

The void to the southwest of the eyewall is dry air about to mix in.
I will be back in awhile...I have an important phone call.:)

My opinion Katrina should be 155 mph strong category 4.

and 135 mph category four at Mississippi landfall.










Great report Chaser, Cat 3 sounds about right. Cat 5, no way, not after seeing pics and video from Andrew in homestead.
On the MS coast I mean
at very least 145 mph category four and 125 mph at Mississippi landfall.
Unfortunately..I was just telling KRWZ that it's more likely they go the other way than make her a cat five.

However..it may say as is or a slight decrease in same categories though..


brb:)
So KRWZ do you want to play a game of How low will the "1" go for Epsillon? Keeps progressing down the forcast track.

is 918mb a cat 5 what what was the mb in the K storm at landfall?
Have to say old Eppy is getting pushed quite a bit SSW. Made a note a couple of hours ago to the move.
ProgressivePulse ok how do i play?
308. haydn
918mb
309. haydn
918mb was at Gulfport I believe
I was going to play by LATITUDE but hold on, I want to see this next trend.
At least a Jog to the West helps out the Rowing Competition.
well ProgressivePulse hurricanechaser and haydn i am off to bed now and when i get up i hop that this E storm is not a hurricane when i get up i like to see it a ts by time i get up but we well see and one going to bed yet?
313. haydn
KRWZ

I found an NOAA site that said 920 for landfall of Katrina.

Also, here is something I found for intensity and millibars.
Link
Hey All! I added 2 pictures to my blog~ what 15 inches of rain in a day, did to the place. All from a tropical depression in '99. I remembered there being some dispute after as if it could be named & retired, since it killed a bunch of people in another country from landslides, perhaps a few here(like car related, not mudslides). How about someone research it for me. I'll be off to bed. I also put some results in the new news, about the privite partiners policy, that Dr. Masters & NOAA wanted us to comment on. NOAA is still taking comments on the demise of IWIN, links for that are right under the new news.

As for my night eppy forecast, i hazard once again she'll be a 'cane in the morning.
Water Vapor Loop for Eppy look's like it is about to be drawn into a paper shredder.
316. haydn
It's late for me too and I don't want to stay up till 2 again. Goodnight.
Have a good sleep KRWZ, see you tomorrow.
sweet link Hayden,
Progressive~ i can't get those rowers out of my head either.
Nite All
Gnight Haydn, have a good sleep.
ok are you going to bed to
You have your cat 5 pictures, but ya know what, the WV loop shows a Hurricane traveling through conditions known to be deadly to a Hurricane and getting worse. But again convection seems to be getting stronger. This is a pristiene time to get a handle on what we might be dealing with in the future, SEND RECON. I got $20 bucks what do you have? lol
That shift to the right could be that the eye is getting smaller also.
Still traveling SSW, might be an early hint to the Extrotopical.
The eye is shrinking, convection is getting stronger to the northwest and is starting to wrap around the eye, and it's taking a jog farther to the west than the forecast track. It looks like the Epsilon Bunny is still alive for another day!

Secure the hatches and batten down the sails, Florida. Here she comes!
As of 2:02 am, Dry air penetrated the eyewall of Epsillon.
As of 2:02 it mixes out.
so how much longer will this be a hurricane? Any guesses?
Mine is another 24hrs. If it keeps tracking the way it is, I give it 36.
SSW?
Yeah SSW.
why would that keep it a hurricane? (seems like a stupid question, sorry)
Does Everyone think Epsilon can stay a Tropical Storm for the next Advisory??? (Dumb Question but) If it does WE WILL HAVE THE "Most Named Storm Days" Record
Now the 1 million Dollar Question Does anyone Think Epsilon can Maintain Hurricane Intensity until at least the 4pm Advisory Tomorrow?? if it does
we will beat the "Most Hurricane Days in a Season" Record
Just my thought but, it has been battling shear from the NW for some time now and survived. Epsillon has not even seen the sheer from the south yet, but started to and was deflected to the SSW in response, and has continued on the course for some time now more vigorously (Grossly Missing the forcast track). I think that the system to the north has and will be less intense than expected, Hurricane @ 36hrs (Final Answer).
I think it will still be a hurricane at 4am
cool, I hope your right, I want to see epsilon survive long enough to break the 1950 ACE record.
ME TOO But what about it being a Hurricane at 4pm Tomorrow?
How about that system this weekend riding up the east coast, some models show a pressure as low as (987).
THe Snowstorm??? Turning from a Ohio Valley / Gulf Storm into a Noreaster when it gets to the Ocean???
That is the system that is "supposed" to sweep up Epsillon. I do not think it will be as strong as all are Hyping it up to be, just my thought.
haha well That Too But Man Epsilon is doing 100% of it's Water Vapor It's in the Middle of a esert BUT IT HAS that "Front Tail" to PUSH it's way Throw there LOL
The Snowman:

I give it only a 10% chance of still being a hurricane by then. The environment it is heading too is just too hostile.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html Latest Shear Values ahead of Eppy.
Can't it Squeeeeeeeeeeeeeze Through The Path Theoretically
Thanks for the link; looks like if it heads SW it will be in pretty good shape. SSW doesnt look too good though.
man it is still a hurricane (4 am) and the forecaster sounds none to pleased. Sounds like he just woke up, expecting a T.S. and finding yet still.... a hurricane.
THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...
THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I
HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE.
NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

I do love the latest Godfather episode.
Hey Proggressive..still up:)..hey everyone else..Cory, etc.:)
Figured I would carry the torch this night Chaser, lol.
Latest wind swath is acutally larger than it has been all along.
Eye is looking ragged but wait, another 3 to 6hrs will tell.
Looks the same as He/She did the past several nights. Convection is just moved to the coresponding side.
Lol..sorry I ws trying to catch up on what I missed..thought I was the only one here:)
But, tonight Eppy seems to be mixing out the dry air much faster.
LOL...I am going to be stuck with that 3 to 6 hour label..lol:)
Honestly..that 3 to 6 hour trend has served me well until Epsilon shows up and fluctuates in 2 hour increments and maintains the same intensity for more than 36 hours..its amazing how it continues to alternate back and forth with no definate tend either way for more than 3 hours and with all the fuctuations...stay the same for almost two days now.
I forecasted it will not be a hurricane past the 10 am EST advisory..that means I only have one more free advisory before I'm wrong a second time in two days..lol:)
Therefore, I gotta admit I am kinda hoping it will be a 70 mph tropical storm by the 4 PM EST Advisory so I won't have to be wrong again..lol

What is your gut feeling? How long do you think it can hang on to hurricane intensity?
You and a vast amount of others Chaser lol. The 3 to 6 Hour thing is correct for sure with this storm, just tends to agonoize things.
Posted By: ProgressivePulse at 7:18 AM GMT on December 07, 2005.
Mine is another 24hrs. If it keeps tracking the way it is, I give it 36.
I know..here I am up all night tracking this storm because I'm afaraid I'm going to miss the start of a real trend..I could've slept well for the past two days and seen the same satellite imagery except a smaller circulation and eye and further south of course.:)
Wow..I need to go look at the latest Infrared..I haven't looked at it since earlier tonight.. brb.
363. dcw
Still a 5AM 'cane...this storm is mad.
364. dcw
Look at upper-level winds! It's established an outflow under that much shear?? O_O
Looks like Eppie's running the shearless chute to the deep tropics. The 192 hour forecast shows a strong cat 3 Eppie slamming south Florida with winds gusting as high as 155 MPH!

Just kidding. I have no idea where it's going to be in 16 days.

Or am I...

Seriously (maybe), after looking at the wind shear map, it looks like Eppie has a clear shot to the southwest and warmer waters. Where did that path come from? Weather modification again?

The 2005 hurricane season has thrown all normalcy out the window. I think forecasters are gonna be taking a really serious look at their models (and how they need to change) after this.
366. MarcD
there is very little confidence in the intensity
forecast.


and absolutely incredible statement from the forecaster!! What an amazing year...
Epsilon and shear...Epsilon and shear...this line of thinking is shear lunacy!


...sorry, couldn't resist...
Hey everyone..I'm still up..just checking back in for a few:)
You are right Colby...its circulation is looking better with much better outflow as well as the convection being sustained around the eye for the past four hours or so without the usual weakening from dry air and shear that has caused it to flucuate every couple of hours during the past two days...its been on a slight intensification trend..the very first sustained one of this length in that period.
If it can continue to maintain this trend without the eyewall once again being impeded by shear and dry air..it may actually intensify to 80 mph at the next advisory. The question is will the eyewall remain intact for that long?

It's obvious that the warmer sea surface temperatures are helping increase the convection...it will be interesting to see if this can sustain itself after the Diurnal cycle.
Here we go again..right on que...the latest Infrared satellite loop shows Epsilon beginning yet another weakening fluctuation after a sustain four hours of sustain intensification with the eyewall fully intact and improved outflow with the overall circulation.

In the last couple of images in this loop..you can se the dry air once again reasserting itself into Epsilons inner core from the NW into the system while the eyewall tries to maintain the convection completely around the eye. It looks as though we are beginning yet another alternating minor fluctuation that has been Epsilons major characteristic for the past 48 hours or so. Each time this occurs..I wonder if this will be the one that finally persists and weakens Epsilon down to tropical storm intensity. On each occasion, this slight fluctuation would everse itself after no more than 2 hours and this has allowed Epsilon to retasin the exact same intensity throughout this long period of time..truly amazing and nothing I've seen before in the 21 years I've been tracking storms or the 9 years I've been forecasting them in college and the weather office.

It's a shame that there wasn't a Recon sent in to gather data that would better explain this incredible event and improve forecasting for the next Epsilon. They don't usually investigate storms east of 55 degrees longitude, no significanrt threat to land, and they have expected it to weaken for the entire 48 hours since it reintensified unexpectantly. Those are the reasons I presume one didn't go out to do so. Although, it's not too late since this fluctuating yet overall steady state trend continues and could for some time to come.
If we had a contest for most TYPOS in these blogs..I would be hard to beat...sorry.:)
I should mention one last important factor in attempting to forecast Epsilon which has a huge impact on the computer models as well as those esponsible for these difficult forecasts.

As we all know, it's a very rare entity to have any tropical cyclone roaming the Atlantic Basin in December yet alone a strong Tropical Storm and Hurricane. Tha being the case, there isn't much climatilogical data that can be processed into the models nor much previous experience for the forecasters themselves to draw upon.

They are relying on forecasting paramaters typical of an unusual October storm in the mid latitudes of the Atlantic Basin let alone a storm two months later at such a distance so far North as well as East.

Naturally, there is a much larger room for error and very little statistical probabilty and experience to rely on. Not to even take into account..they the overall weather pattern is by far more active and chaotic over the U.S. and the entire Atlantic Basin which ib itself explains why we have had so few December storms to begin with.

Then we have to consider all of the aforementioned combined with unusually above normal sea surface temperature for this time of year and we have a recipe for an unprecented and unpredictable evnt such as Epsilon has turned out to be.

ok, I need to go get some sleep hopefully for at least 6 hours.:)

I hope each of you know check in have a wonderful day.:)

I'm sure Epsilon will continue to be an interesting and historic storm to track...enjoy.:)

I will have to stay with my previous prediction that it will be downgraded to a tropical storm no later than the 4 PM EST advisory. However, it's a very low confidence forecast...where have I heard that before?...hmmmm.:)
Re: forecasts for 2006.......

I am just an average person who comes to this site to learn from those who know more. I know meteorolgy is a science, however I have to wonder about the importance of a little common sense every time I hear phrases like "Katrina was a 500 year storm". I also wonder about using statistical odds to minimize the possibility of another catastrophe befalling the same area in 2006.

Camille struck the Pass Christian area in 1969. That was just 36 years ago not 500 years ago. It was a stronger storm, making landfall as a Cat.5. The winds maintained Cat.5 strength well inland as the storm tracked northward through Mississippi.

The devastation from Camille was not considered as great because the population and development along the immediate Coast had not progressed to what it was before Katrina.

Also, how many near misses for the New Orleans/north central Gulf Coast area have there been? Many! If Ivan had not turned slightly at the last minute, the same catastrophic impact would have happened last year. The mayor of New Orleans held a press conference telling everyone his worst fears had come true as he issued the evacuation order. New Orleans was in the bullseye. A little jog at the last minute saved the area during the threat from Ivan.

Before Ivan in 2004, Senator Mary Landreu taped a telvision spot with school children dropping a 15' banner off a balcony in the French Quarter to show people how high the water might rise in a flooding sitruation in New Orleans.

People living in a hurricane zone should not be playing games with statistics and pointing to statistical chances as the basis for not preparing. When a storm enters the Gulf, someone gets it! Everyone must think in terms of being in the middle of the strike zone. If we think in terms of statistics, no one would prepare because odds are it will go somewhere else!

Discussing statistical odds might be all right for scientists in their offices. Personally, I think everyone in a hurricane zone should build and plan for the worst case scenario because the worst has happened too many times not to.

Just my arrogant 2 cents as I continue my own recovery from Katrina.....!!

Warm regards to you all..........

steelmagnolia



Hey Steel Magnolia,

That was a very true and excellent commentary which I noticed as I was signing off and deserved a response.:)

I agree with you that there is not one area anywhere from Texas to Maine that hasn't been hit by a hurricane during the 155 years or so since record keeping actually began.

As an old saying goes if I remember it corectly, "Those who don't learn from the past are destined to repeat it."

This certainly applies to hurricane history as well.

I hope you continue to recover and our thoughts and prayers are with you and all the others who are slowly recovering.:)
ok...lol..one last post before I go..there is a very distinct weakening phase underway as the convection has weakened around the eye and is no longer intact but rather broken up quite a bit as shear has eroded the NW quadrant as well. Now, the big question, is this the trend that will persist for more than 3 hours and cause Epsilon to be downgraded. If it doesn't reverse itself within the next 2 hours..it most likely won't be a hurricane at the 10 AM EST advisory. That's how significant a weakening trend it has develop during the past hour.

However, this hasn't been unusual for Epsilon as previously mentioned so many times.:)
377. haydn
Goodmorning,

I think the weakening phase has started too. The convection is split.

I looked at entries I missed while sleeping and found questions about Hurricane days and named storm days. On this sites archive there are 19 advisories listed as cat 1. That would be 4.75 days. Add this to 45.25 (Dr Gray's tally) and we have 50, a new record. Also, at 10 I think NSD will be around 119. Epsilon would need to stay around until 10 PM Thur to break 120.25 days unless the advisories as a tropical depression are counted. Gamma had 11 advisories before it was named.
Hello everyone.........hope everyone is having a good day.....waiting to see what happens with our buddy Epsilon.........I just looked at the satelite......looks like some weakening has started, but we have seen this too many times in the last week....I think that it will stay a hurricane at the 10AM update......we will see....
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Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 071436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED DEC 07 2005

...PERSISTENT EPSILON REMAINS A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY
TOMORROW...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST OR ABOUT 875
MILES...1410 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A GRADUALLY DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...29.1 N... 37.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$


SteelMagnolia... I don't find your post arrogant in the least, what you said is very true.
Hey steelmagnolia44,

Very well said !
Man, Im I good or just lucky.......I guess I had a 50-50 chance..... :) ...........Hello to Veracity and Hello to Palmbeacher and to Pensacola21, and to Hurricanechaser.........Its a beautiful day here in Orlando, a little cloudy but could be alot worse........
I think we've determined one thing about Epsilon. Whatever the forecasters predict is NOT what will happen. As soon as the forecasters predict that Eppie will start a strengthening trend to cat 2, Eppie will dissipate into a light tropical breeze and flow across my trailer in Ft. Lauderdale as I sit under a palm tree sucking on an orange crush, listening to the parrots squawking in the trees, and watching the lazy cumulus clouds float by as I feel the warm sunshine on my face...

Um, you were saying...?
384. haydn
I agree. Epsilon is confusing forcasters.

I've been taling about the number of hurricane days and records being broken. I thought 50 was a record. I have looked this up and see that I was wrong. It's around 60. This link gives a table that discloses info I missed.

Link
Hi Weatherboy! It is cloudy and
very windy here.
(((((Pensacola21 where R U )))))
PEEK-A-BOO!!
Hey
AAAHHHH there you are!
So good to see you today.
Epsilon
391. haydn
New Blog Up
...and going...and going...
Im wondering if it's possible that hurricane katrina was cloud-seeded. If you look at this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/2005/Katrina/gmex/wv-loop.html you can tell that the cloud tops get dry real fast for no reason. Right before the hurricane hits. Another thing thats weird is that theres no satellite imagery for a 3 hour period. Could there be a connection between cloud-seeding and the eyewall bowing out 60 miles?