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Another quiet weekend in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2006

High wind shear and dry air continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic. There is a tropical wave about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Island that has a surface circulation, but this wave is embedded in a very large area of dry air, and thunderstorm activity is presently very limited. The computer models are indicating the possiblity of some development off the coast of the Carolinas by Tuesday, but any storm here is likely to be a threat only to Bermuda. The long range 2-week GFS forecast calls for a continuation of the current pattern, with high wind shear remaining as a major deterrent to tropical cyclone formation until the end of August.

Since there's not much of interest to report in my blog, let me call attention to another blog on the site. Margie Kieper is putting together a very ambitious series of blogs documenting the effect of Katrina's storm surge. Today, she documents the damage at Grand Island, LA. Each day for the next 20 days she'll march down the coast to Mobile, AL, showing what happened to each 10-mile long section.


Figure 1. Damage to Grand Island, LA in the wake of Katrina. Image credit: NOAA.

I'll be back with an update on Sunday.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Christy, dont count the SE Coast development out yet!
HEy ya'll here a neat item.
--------------------------------------------
"While only about 60% of the Atlantic tropical storms and minor hurricanes ( Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2) originate from easterly waves, nearly 85% of the intense (or major) hurricanes have their origins as easterly waves (Landsea 1993). It is suggested, though, that nearly all of the tropical cyclones that occur in the Eastern Pacific Ocean can also be traced back to Africa (Avila and Pasch 1995)."
----------------------------------------------
This is interesting, I didn't know that it was such a low number in total(I though it was more like 80%).
Yea but why would someone lie and say there a guy??? It doesn't make sense
weatherguy03...Defense...it's always defense! Jacksonville overwhelmed Miami being the Jags are from the armpit of the south! LOL
i say dolphins go 12-4, maybe 13-3
Good info Tx! Ok Rand!!..LOL I think there is a StormJunkie lurking:)
Also I never realized that we knew about waves in the 40's.
There were quite a few storms last year that did not come from waves, like Delta, Epsilon and Zeta (and others).
weatherguy03 ...Is SJ an armpit fan too?
Some more information:

One might wonder, where do meteorologists obtain information from the tropics:

Meteorological Satellite Data
Upper Air Analysis
Surface Reports from Ships, Buoys and land-base stations.
Weather Radar Data.
miami D crushed jacksonville tonite. they slammed them. until second quarter when we had second team and they still had starters. miami won the game tonite 10-0
Nah, he loves them Gamecocks! Not sure about Pro.
This talk of football is depressing. My oilers(I mean texans just stank and I'm not sure we got better). Ofcourse we probably couldn't get worse.
hurricaneman23...Right. That's why I like Sabin....he has no fear!
If we are going to talk football then - go Seahawks! Alexander will pull them thru again this year hopefully all of the way.
Fear no expansion armpit team!!
Tx. I grew up an Oiler fan! I was the biggest Oiler fan in the Northeast!!..LOL The days of Campbell and Pastorini! Those were the days. The heartbreak, man the heartbreak. I still hate the Steelers to this day!
Cat. The Cowboys are back!
weatherguy03...LOL! I remember those days!
Taco,
hopefully nothing comes our way - if so, we are prepared. We have a generator, chain saw, and are getting a window unit that can be run from the generator. We also have a basement so no need to abandon ship!
I had Houston Oiler everything! Warren Moon was the man. Then they move to Tennesee and win the Super Bowl..LOL Go figure.
RIGHT ON ALLY!!!
It worked out well though. They moved to Tennessee and then Jacksonville got a team.
if is football you like.......Dsn Deigo Chargers, pro

but Auburn Tigers will roar again.......war eagle
weatherguy03, Amen. That stupid referee cost us a champioship. He was clealy in bounds on the catch.
Hurricane 23, I like the satellites you have on your blog...good job
well I say War Eagle The only Team in the South...LOL Now as for Pro I just don't have 1 but love NCAA


Taco:0)
weatherguy03...so what's your take on a low off the east coast?
alaema..

ROLL TIDE!!!!!

UA and AU the BEST college rivalry there is. None better...
weatherguy when they almost won the super bowl I was horrified. See ya'll later.
Posted By: AllyBama at 2:56 AM GMT on August 13, 2006.
If we are going to talk football then - go Seahawks! Alexander will pull them thru again this year hopefully all of the way.

THAT would be sweet!
thats San Deigo Chargers

Lower baqck surgery 10 days ago still using those pain pills
Taco, you surprise me..

Rama Jamma yellow hammer give 'em *ell Alabama!!!
I think we are gonna see something there Rand. Now will it be tropical, or a hybrid system? Not sure about that yet. GFS has been changing from run to run so its tough to get a read on it. But we have a stalled front, TUTT moving in. Something is gonna happen.
Before I go some trivia

Longest storm Paths
Atlantic- Faith(66)-7500mi\
EPAC - John(94)-8000mi
wPAc Ophelia-8500mi
Yes, almost!!..LOL
Hey Ally,

You got that right no other game comes close to that one...


Taco:0)
Dr. Laura -
I pull for Seattle because of Alexander. He is great both on and off the field..besides he bleeds Crimson!
weatherguy03...Those are mostly my thoughts as well. Not sure the TUTT will make the trip according to the models. I do see a low pressure interest forming and not heading W or SW...mostly NE or E. All depends on the upper low to me.
Ally,

I Love that one for sure



:0)
Posted By: AllyBama at 3:06 AM GMT on August 13, 2006.
Dr. Laura -
I pull for Seattle because of Alexander. He is great both on and off the field..besides he bleeds Crimson!

True that!
alleybama

you are right babma and auburn undefeated until the iron bowl.....thats a football season right there
Yes Rand, not sure which way its gonna move. But, climatology tells me west. Just depends on how close to the coast it develops. Should be interesting. Well, time to go, have a great night!
Ain't nothing like a UF FSU game!
Ally,
Something else I forgot , I have a Blue Truck to go with my Orange Tag>>>"War Eagle"


Taco:0)
alema,
hope you are up and about soon! We fans have to be in shape for the games...I tend to be very active when watching games.. My hubby has even sent me to another room to watch games..
G'nite y'all.....keep it spinnin'!
Randrewl,

FSU or UF? Bama plays FSU next year as a non-conference.
That convection up there in the armpit of the south...where 03 lives...that's the stuff to watch.

Taco,

you are killing me.. that's all right, some of my in-laws are Auburnites..
Sure glad that I am not on a cruise or flight to Bermuda!
I'd be quite happy if football was the most interesting thing to talk about all fall long. Good night all, and God bless the tropics!
Hey Ally,
I understand that because the Boss (wife) tells me to leave all the time...

The Boss (wife) Alabama Fan

Me (the other team) but did love the fact that we kill ya last 4yrs...

YYYYYYYEEEEHHAWWWWWWWWWWWW


Taco:0)
alleybama
Always ready for the season.......sep 2 it all gets going


war eagle
Randrewl,
I wish some of that rain would have came here in lower Alabama, We could use it bad...


Taco:0)
That front is suppose to stall around Central florida in the coming days....I think we may some development,atleast i think it maybe something to watch.
Well, time to pack it in tonight. Just want to let everyone know how much I enjoy this site - even with all of the bickering!
Good night all..see ya' tomorrow when the wind blows (or doesn't!?!)..
The situation off the South East Coast of the United States:


A front moving off the South East Coast of the United States will become stalled out over the next 36hrs. As wind shear relaxes over the area, it will need to be watch for development.

There is 1011mbar low pressure area, at the western edge of the front, situated near the Georgian coastline.

Tomorrow, I will post the observation maps for the area of discuss above and the African coastline.

Any development will most likely move away from the South East United Sates coast. Will it affect Bermuda? Maybe, maybe not..Depends on the situation, as the Upper Level Low is still present north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Good Night All......
Good Nite Ally,


See ya tomorrow>>>


Taco:0)
taco2me61...I know. We need some here really bad also. We're way below the norm. All these upper lows keep rolling over South Florida and are keeping us too dry.
God nite Weather,

I will have to watch it for sure...


Taco:0)
Weather456 ...I'm sitting on a 1011mb reading right now. Now how are you going to forecast my weather in south FL from St. Kitts? Get out!
Well I'm Back>>> can anybody tell me what happened???



Taco:0)
randrewl, is the wave near the lesser more stronger now, the island os st. lucia report gusts to near 35 mph.
from the ENE (060 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT) gusting to 35 MPH (30 KT)
taco2me61 what happened it may have happend to me as well did you get some in that says cant find savere or some in like that? my lap top was run slow when i try to get on her but it says can not find severe or some and have to geton my dsktop
yea Cane it happened to me i thot i had a darn virus lol
Cane< thats right it could not find Server...

The system went down for a while then and not sure why but it did...


Taco:0)
checking in from the "armpit of the south" - Savannah, GA...
hi mel Emerald Isle NC here
taco2me61 ooops sorry that was my older id that i had be for i am now back to taz well any way the same thing went on with me
I have a 1013 reading from my house in Richmond Hill GA...
Hey will40 - nice to meet you! Glad we're all in the armpit..
1015 here
Hey Taz how are you tonight???


Taco:0)
yea we in da armpit lol
hey will - when it goes UP, it's nicer weather, right? I am still trying to figure out the station - however, 95% humdity right now (someone get me a TOWEL)...

Melissa
yes Mel the higher the better
something may blowup about Tuesday not sure yet
so at what point does the drop in pressure become a worry thing? I am still trying to figure out tornados and hurricanes - is there a magic number that you say "uh oh?"
: taco2me61 doing vary well
****Taco hands Melissa a Towel*****
yea when it gets down around 1005 i wud start to worry lol
altho it would get that low or lower in a thunderstorm
hold on i have a weather buoy i will give you a link to
Hey, I'm back again, to post these images I forgot:



ghu
wb 456
: Weather456 if that keep up could that be 92L
Link theres one closer to you Melissa
What happened to the blog? Couldn't access for over 10 mins?
was something on this end Rand we all got hit lol
i got the same thing too
Here's this everyone:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUE. THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS ON THE GFS...BEFORE
ANOTHER CAD EVENT DRIVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NCEP IS GOING
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT. THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SE COAST THAT STRONGLY HINTS OF TROPICAL
ORIGINS. HOWEVER...NCEP IS ALSO DISCOUNTING THIS FEATURE AS OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED DOWN FROM THEIR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO MIGRATE OFF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR VEERING IN THE SFC WIND
FIELDS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY EITHER
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
FILLS IN SOMEWHAT.

What I am seeing is a model data input regarding the upper low still north of Hispaniola that is expanding. This feature could or could not make the trip close enough to South Florida to influence a potential low formation off the south east US coast. If it does then a more westerly track for the potential low would be a possibility. My personal thinking is that the upper low will not have an impact should there even be anything to impact and regardless of climactics I suspect any formation would be directed eastward in some fashion.
597. SLU
It's a nice calm evening here. I was out all day so i'm a bit surprised to see a nice looking wave just off my doorstep. That gusts to 35mph isn't directly related to the wave and it's just part of the normal winds that blow here and have been blowing all day.
ty for the infor Rand
Yeah and I put all my previous post together myself and personally wrote the comments at the end! Anyone that does otherwise here should be hanged!
i have my own station here at my house...
melwerle...I gave up on my personal weather station. They kept getting destroyed in storms. Now I have a thermometer, rain gauge and a barometer....that's it. All of those are easily moved indoors.
Too funny Randrewl - I have been worried about that since I got it for a bday gift last week - keep undoing it and bringing the monitors inside when it gets nasty. I suppose that hail and such can whack it pretty good - no screened-in porch here - can't imagine how the wind and rain gages could withstand that nonsense but it's fun until I bust it (or mother nature does!). Just still trying to figure out the tornado stuff since we have had a few "warnings" here and there. In the interum, it keeps me from getting in trouble.

:)
THANKS SLU DO YOU LIVE IN ST LUCIA?
melwerle...I just don't need no stinking weather station! I just walk outside.
I'm bringing this back to this page because I worked hard putting it together and everyone should read it. Thanks for your toleration!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUE. THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS ON THE GFS...BEFORE
ANOTHER CAD EVENT DRIVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NCEP IS GOING
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT. THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SE COAST THAT STRONGLY HINTS OF TROPICAL
ORIGINS. HOWEVER...NCEP IS ALSO DISCOUNTING THIS FEATURE AS OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED DOWN FROM THEIR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO MIGRATE OFF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR VEERING IN THE SFC WIND
FIELDS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY EITHER
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
FILLS IN SOMEWHAT.

What I am seeing is a model data input regarding the upper low still north of Hispaniola that is expanding. This feature could or could not make the trip close enough to South Florida to influence a potential low formation off the south east US coast. If it does then a more westerly track for the potential low would be a possibility. My personal thinking is that the upper low will not have an impact should there even be anything to impact and regardless of climactics I suspect any formation would be directed eastward in some fashion.
I figured that out Randrewl - although i do like to check this thing - i like to yell at it especially when it's wrong - like today when it told me it was sunny and it was POURING outside and the rain gage was going crazy...gotta love these things.
ok kids - going to bed. Have a great night and take care. Talk to y'all later....
Geez... think this could be a BELOW AVERAGE season????
Yeah winter123...unless something rolls out at 10 or above...forget it. But right now there's a lot of moisture available.

jphurricane2006....Yo!
I heard Orlando was set to make new record high temps today jphurricane2006 ...How was it today?
Hi ya'll most wundermous folks! Boss says: Take a break!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130212
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
aquak9...You're just too cute!
jphurricane2006...Did you read my east coast forecast above? Then check the east Atlantic...the wave rolling off is at a much higher lat with plenty of moisture.
JP...Yes. The model data is very reliant on that upper low. I don't think it will make it during the most recent run periods. You and I both know how slow a go it is with them. Normal climactics should move anything westerly...but I'm going with the easterly component right now. That ULL won't make the trip.
jphurricane2006....Any low formation off the SE coast won't happen till late Monday or Tuesday if then.
My best friend's name (since 1967, oh yes I am an old doggy) is Debby. We had a crab boil at her house tonite.

Gonna be an interesting week, folks.
jphurricane2006...From what I can see that bunch of convection exiting off north FL tonight is the culprit. This has nothing to do with the front over your area. I have an extreme high pressure ridge over my house right now and my pressure is 1008 right now. All that means nothing.
hey guys what do you think its happening with the wave east of the lesser antilles? the wave looking very well?
aquak9...I vividly remember the 60's. I have every song ever recorded from the 60's on my puter and am usually listening to them while here.
THUNDERPR....It looks nice on the sats. I'm thinking more of an ITCZ influence happening tonight. Probably not to worry about.
Hey JP, I hear ya on the hot, it was. I think the local was pointing to tue- wed for maybe development. I see the ULL already heading a bit NE already. If something does spin up I'm with climatology, the local NWS & with how close the rain is firing from Fl tonight (dry lightnin to report) & the movement of the ULL, I say a better than 50% chance it heads west, if something develops. Randrewl & I have been having a friendly disaggrence on this 1/2 the day now. lol. Could use the rain. 528 is burning up again. It stinks of z muck fires here.
Skyepony...I'm still in disagreement. But you sound good! Hope you caught my thoughts above.
I did. We'll let it play out. Somethings gotta form first! lol. It's all good:) Catch ya'll tomarrow.
night
Guys on this IR image you can see the frontal boundary moveing towards the south east with some thunderstorm activity,this front will eventually stall some were in central florida in the next couple of days.There's some potential for a surface low to form just of the coast of south florida next week.Right now its just a wait and see situation.

Here is the IR pic...


Here's the latest location of the ITCZ..Which is firing up the convection east of the Windwards.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N14W 8N39W 12N52W ACROSS THE N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 10N71W THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 12N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
Thanks randrewl for that....wave approaching the caribbean seems to flareing up tonight lets see what tommorow brings.Also going to be watching whats going of the florida next week could get interesting as the GFS has a surface low moving into the GOM next week.
23...I can only hope you read my forecast regarding the SE US. Observe the convection rolling off southern Georgia right now and you will see the evil dog!
hurricane23...GOM my ass!
randrewl i hope we can be friends cause i really enjoy reading your posts bro.
All the models are heavily invested in the falacy that the ULL will have an influence in the SE....Nah....it won't make the trip. I even discount normal climactics on this one and am shoving whatever might develop eastward! There's your lesson in do it yourself forecasting. Follow my lead and you might gain some respect here.
I work hard to do what little I can contribute here. I don't have to do it...I just enjoy it. It's not about being right...just striving to be as accurate as I can. Can't do better than that that I know.
Here is the 18z GFS wanting to develope something of the florida coast...

SEE HERE
the thing out in the atlantic is huge

will it develop
Hey, just popping in to see whats going on.....
This is from the 2:05am NHC Discussion...

A WEAK 1012 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
PULLING UP INTO THE SE US.
hurricane23...I hate that model run....takes till sunup to load! But you posted it and I will observe.
I see the wave is still there:

what is the blob by the Leeward Islands?
Weather456...Geezuss...which wave? The whole half a globe is more than I can understand!
A tropical wave
near the leeward islands.....
hurricane23...Shove that pressure....I already have 1009mb and I am under a high ridge!
This floater is now centered over the Carolina disturbance.

Pressure, shear, SAL charts are all just best guess scenarios gang. They are not reality. Ya gotta figure this out.
456...I had no idea it was a disturbance? When did that happen?
Rand, OK,
over the stalled out cold front near the Carolinas.
I posted this a little up in the blog....

2:05am NHC Discussion...

A WEAK 1012 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
PULLING UP INTO THE SE US.
Weather456...You mean that disturbance off the Georgia coast? Isn't that a bit out of your area of expertise?
Randrewl, Nope....

Its in the tropics or subtropics.
Hey...456 I'm just having fun. But this SE US thing is all mine. Don't need a St. Kitts forecast here. I know all the little things that make things happen or not around here.
So, 456....try and outpredict me on anything involving the SE US coast. You ready for this?
Randrewl, even so...

I would still like to track it.....
Both the WRF and GFS to some degree show this disturbance moveing westward into florida sometime next week.

SEE THIS LOOP FROM NEX LAB
456...Here's my best:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUE. THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS ON THE GFS...BEFORE
ANOTHER CAD EVENT DRIVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NCEP IS GOING
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT. THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SE COAST THAT STRONGLY HINTS OF TROPICAL
ORIGINS. HOWEVER...NCEP IS ALSO DISCOUNTING THIS FEATURE AS OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED DOWN FROM THEIR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO MIGRATE OFF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR VEERING IN THE SFC WIND
FIELDS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY EITHER
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
FILLS IN SOMEWHAT.

What I am seeing is a model data input regarding the upper low still north of Hispaniola that is expanding. This feature could or could not make the trip close enough to South Florida to influence a potential low formation off the south east US coast. If it does then a more westerly track for the potential low would be a possibility. My personal thinking is that the upper low will not have an impact should there even be anything to impact and regardless of climactics I suspect any formation would be directed eastward in some fashion.
Rand, this is all i got...(From my previous post)

The situation off the South East Coast of the United States:



A front moving off the South East Coast of the United States will become stalled out over the next 36hrs. As wind shear relaxes over the area, it will need to be watch for development.

There is 1011mbar low pressure area, at the western edge of the front, situated near the Georgian coastline.

Any development will most likely move away from the South East United Sates coast. Will it affect Bermuda? Maybe, maybe not..Depends on the situation, as the Upper Level Low is still present north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

There's a very personal hardcore South Florida redneck forecast if I ever saw one! That would be mine and I defy you to find anyone else saying that! That is mine and all copyrights are in full force here.
This is from the MIAMI discussion a few minutes ago....

GFS/NAM BOTH NOW DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRES OFF OF FLA E COAST AS THE BACK DOOR TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES SW
POSSIBLY INTO S FLA. CIRCULATION ABOUT THE DEVELOPING LOW COULD
ALLOW THIS BUT WOULD VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.


Also that low is at the surface, and I expect it to drift east.
hurricane23...Stop shouting please. Miami has been harping on this potential low formation since Wednesday! Relax! It has not actually happened yet.
Also that low is at the surface, and I expect it to drift east.

That should say: west.....
456 is right...it woii drift easterly!
will
Weather456..EAST! Sorry, I am pleased to say we disagree.
I randrewl iam just pointing out.....Have you guys seen the wave approaching the islands?it seems to still be flareing up.
I'm not calling for development :

hurricane23...I imagine if that wave was a concern 456 would not be digging around the US East Coast!
Anyway guys iam off to bed...everything right now is just a wait and see thing.hope you guys have a wonderful night.
Thanks Christy!
Rand, sorry for the mix up,

My first post was the right one....east...confirmed by the NHC

I'm getting mix up with the wave by the islands moving west....
Weather456....Remeber...I am West of you and you are East of me.
Just so that we are clear...

My current thinking is for it to slowly move away from the coast, in time.
i see the same, this wave is very well in the past 6 hours, and continue flare up.
THUNDERPR, I'm starting to get the feeling its fighting the dust and winning.....
Where are we now? Which disturbance? I was off for a few.
The tropical wave near the windward islands.......
Weather456 the wave is moving w or wnw, do you think that wave afecct Puerto Rico or no?
The wave is moving west, according to how far west it stays, it would have little effects on Puerto Rico. If it moves north it will bring Puerto Rico some rain like 91L did.

The current forecast moves it WNW, so there is chance that Puerto Rico could get some rain from this.
Weather456..What I see in the EATL is very conducive for formation. Moisture all over the northern portions of Africa and a nasty wave heavily imbedded is moving off. Not much dry air and basically no dust either. Things are lining up right now out there friend.
This is a really strong wave:

i'm remember Weather456, this wave is the same that the systen 91L has behind in the eastern atlantic last week?
456...That's what I'm talking about!
Yeah, Rand....

The moisture has increase some 80% to my knowledge, I remember when it was dry as a bone out there.
Three areas to watch now - one emerging from Africa, one approaching the Windwards, and the other off Jacksonville.
Also...at a higher lat than we have seen this season. This would be the start. Gotta have those higher altitudes man! Away from the ITCZ influence so they can develop a personality on their own. God I hate this but I enjoy the chase!
Looking at the satellite, I wouldn't be surprised if the island wave does a Chris:
Flares up, looks spectacular, gets named, and makes a hasty exit.
I'm also beginning to believe you guys more about the east coast blob. Did anyone notice that hurricaine23's model loop spun up two storms out there?
THUNDERPR,
Yeah, thats corect. But when 91L was there, that wave was so dry, you could barely detected it.
the scientist that moved to the cape verde islands to study the formation of the hurricanes are very happy to this wave that look very impressive.
I hardly ever post here but a funny thing happened the other day! when you guys were talking about 91L wave to dissipate, the local weatherman up here was saying "this will be Debbie by tomorrow" .I chuckeled and said if he was in here he wouldent have said that!! how misleading these so called meteorologists can be. he was probably late for his hair styling to get the proper info..you guys are the best. also whats with the convection nearing PR and the islands
Bring on Debby and Ernesto! There's enough out there ......we will see somebody in the next 3-4 days gang!
: bigtrucker...Welcome in...Where are you located?
Wind Shear has decrease to 0-10knots east of Florida.
connecticut along long island sound
Weather456...You got that from a chart? I just walk outside an know that already. When will you learn to throw that crap out? Those shear charts are nothing better than I could predict>
bigtrucker ...You're a long way from the tropics. Is that where you live or where you happen to be?
This is the 48hrs wind shear forecast map: I tested this map with 91L and the ULL in that was in the gulf the other day, and I find it to be accurate.

its where i live but we get h-storms from time to time. last was gloria back in 85. and lets not forget about the long island express in ' 38. Ive weathered 2 minimal hurricanes, belle in 80 and gloria in 85
Posted By: Randrewl at 3:34 AM AST on August 13, 2006.
Weather456...You got that from a chart? I just walk outside an know that already. When will you learn to throw that crap out? Those shear charts are nothing better than I could predict>


The chart that indicated that was from CIMSS
Keep working your shear charts....then question why Dr. Masters says something different regarding shear. It happens every day and you know it. You need to learn to track the influencing factors....not the convection.
bigtrucker...I remember Gloria. Nice to have you here.
Looking at the GFS, the thing off the east coast is supposed to cross north Florida, or go into Georgia.
While I haven't paid too much attention to hurricaines for more than a couple years, one thing I have learned is TRUST THE GFS in terms of storm track.
I remember the GFS forecasting Ivan coming back into the gulf, and possibly reintensifying. All the weather forecasters laughed. But the computer model got the last laugh.
Rand, that map is based on the GFS model.

I thought that is one Dr. Master's uses.
I check in here for good info but lately been too much bickering. not differant points of view, but namecalling and the such. but accurate info ; i like to see !! keep up the good work, and it'll benifet a lot of people who are learning.
Caffinehog...GFS is a great model. It and all other models are completely incoherent trying to predict an entity that is not already developed. Does this help you understand?
glorias eye passed overhead here in Milford with 90+ winds and higher gusts. goodnite guys. TTYS
bigtrucker...Sorry, stuff like that happens with passionate hobyists! Comes with the territory. Just pass it by....you will find truth if you seek it here!
no doubt rand, i know what to look for and have learned a great deal from here.
Listen....we all know where SST's are high. Look at a sat shot and you can figure out the shear. Depending on what appears on the sat shot is what I track. Mostly I have been a TUTT tracker this season. I have not been dissapointed yet for doing that. I never consulted a shear chart in the process.
Looks more like the Western Pacific
lol, still on blob patrol I see.....
Randrewl, you make a good point.
When I look at the GFS with different initial times, this thing comes ashore anywhere from Miami to the Outer Banks.
Weather456...Check that altitude man!!
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW
LOCATED JUST N OF THE SOUTHERN MOST BAHAMAS NEAR 23N70W.

Seems like that ULL is weakening.
Caffinehog...Yep. Models cannot predict the unformed! Pretty simple.
Fshhead...Nice to see ya bro!
Same Randrewl
man you guys need to take a vacation until sept. (mid I think) Thats when you will have something to track LOL
Fshhead...How's my vacuum theory working on your blog?
LMAO well Randrewl not to good I think ahhh hold on brb
Posted By: Snowfire at 12:52 PM EST on August 12, 2006.
As to Virtual Photon Flux:

It is a legitimate expression in quantum physics. The notion that it represents any manner of potential power soure led me back once more to Tom Bearden and his ideas. They seem kind of half-baked to me, though I'm no quantum physicist myself. At the very least, belief in this notion requires rejecting some of the more basic suppositions of modern electromagnetic theory. Someone tried to interview Bearden about his alleged working devices (see here) and the result was amusing. I think this is not much more than wishful thinking.
me personally am not to sure. Don't know enough about it to comment.
They got some rain this evening in N Florida from that storm just offshore. But won't it just go out to sea with the rest of the front?
Fshhead...The most important part is that people are exposed to the physics of the whole issue. That's why I always say that western physics are flawed by design. Big money does not want this to be understood. It is all true and may one day be at the forefront of the whole GW issue. Until then then....more co2 man!
Grrrrr freakin oil it burns my butt bigtime!!!!
Randrewl you have any good links for it?????
Fshhead...Bearden is not incoherent. He has been so beat up for what he believes I don't think he will ever allow himself to be interviewed again. This is one smart dude. Do not toss him out.
Naaaa I'm not tossing him LOL I want to see stuff on all this! Like I said any good links??
Hey...Bearden is a retired Lt. Colonel! Served this country and has worked forever to try and save it. Money has squashed him and the rest of Tesla's inventions. It is just that simple.
Now i do know of Tesla. From all the stuff I have seen... This guy was a total genius.
That link will completely fry your noodle if you choose to explore! You ready for that?
Has produced up to 100 times more power than was input, by extracting free energy from the vacuum?????? this thing for REAL????????
I say it is time for a round of applause for Nicola Tesla. Were it not for him we could not be working online via AC power! He developed what we all take for granted....alternating current! Besides that he produced the first radio transmissions....not Marconi!
Tesla~~~~~~~~~~~ SALUTE!!!!
Fshhead...Thank you!
Would have been cool to know Tesla. He basically never wrote his inventions on paper. He just worked them out in his head! Then built his dreams up to reality!
Hot fusion research has received billions of dollars of Government money for over 50 years, AND HAS YET TO PUT A SINGLE WATT OF POWER INTO THE GRID.
Explain this one to me........
BTW.... thanx for the link, hmmmm sounds very promising BUT, besides the obvious reason why has this not gotten more attention. This guy should be everywheres shouting about this at the top of his lings LOL
Fshhead...I always tell you...only three things run this earth and one is not God. Politics, financial and military are the factors.
;)got ya there
I need to sign off. Nice night to everyone and especially the Lurkers!
Cya Randrewl thanx again my friend!!!!!!!!!!!
One more:

The wave moving into the Windwards has shown a respectable flare on the sats. Fortunately all that is mostly caused by a convergence with the ITCZ. I see no future development with this one at that low an elevation. But there is always 12-24 hrs from now that could show a completely different picture.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUE. THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS ON THE GFS...BEFORE
ANOTHER CAD EVENT DRIVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NCEP IS GOING
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT. THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SE COAST THAT STRONGLY HINTS OF TROPICAL
ORIGINS. HOWEVER...NCEP IS ALSO DISCOUNTING THIS FEATURE AS OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED DOWN FROM THEIR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO MIGRATE OFF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR VEERING IN THE SFC WIND
FIELDS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY EITHER
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
FILLS IN SOMEWHAT.

What I am seeing is a model data input regarding the upper low still north of Hispaniola that is expanding. This feature could or could not make the trip close enough to South Florida to influence a potential low formation off the south east US coast. If it does then a more westerly track for the potential low would be a possibility. My personal thinking is that the upper low will not have an impact should there even be anything to impact and regardless of climactics I suspect any formation would be directed eastward in some fashion.
wondering about the carolina blob, running thru florida? Everyone says east but models predict west.
Models can't handle undeveloped lows. Their data is based on input. Completely impossible to predict an entity that is not in existense.
Hey Randrewl,

Fshhead...I always tell you...only three things run this earth and one is not God. Politics, financial and military are the factors.

I respectfully disagree with your assertion that God is not one of the "things" that runs the earth, for I strongly believe there is nothing that occurs on this earth in which we live, that He doesn't either cause directly or simply allows to occur. To be specific, all the things we see as so awful in the world are a result of mans bad choices from long ago according to the Bible. In other words, it is us that screws it up and He gives us the "free will" to choose for ourselves what we will do (even though He has the power to make us to do right, He wants us to do it on our very own).

In the context that you could say that people are trying to remove God from our Countries institutions systematically at our peril, then I could agree.:) To those who will no doubt disagree with me, you still can't prove what I am saying is not true. Specifically, if one chooses not to believe God exists nor has any influence in our lives, that in itself has no baring on the reality that He does IF He truly does exist. That being said, you could've said "I don't believe" God has anything to do with running our earth, but you can't state it as a fact and be assured of it.
we'll have to wait and see then....... Developments later.
To those who say that they don't like me talking about "God" outside of my own blog, I redirect your attention to the comment that preceded this response.:) Even though we may disagree here, I no less respect your opinion to believe as you so choose. Consequently, I humbly ask for the same respect in return. I hope you and everyone else has a truly blessed night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony

P.S. If you don't like God being discussed on a "weather blog" then simply make no reference to Him. However, I could argue that weather itself is part of God's creation just like all of us and is certainly most relevant.:) I am confident that those who say they don't "believe" in God will be praying and do so when they think they are dying such as in life threatening events like violent hurricanes and tornadoes.
Bless you all, and good night.
Hey Randrewl,

Just for the record, I was not questioning whether you "believe" in God per say for that part was directed to those who will no doubt (and have done) say He doesn't in their beliefs. In respect to your specific comment, I was offering my own "opinion" relative to your statement that has relevance in my opinion to whether God is all powerful, all knowing, and ever present. Simply put, I thought I needed to further clarify my previous post in order to avoid any unnecessary misunderstandings.:) In short, I hope you and everyone else has a great rest of the weekend.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony

P.S. If you or any others choose to respond to my own "opinions", please do so in my blog for I will not be checking this blog after I post this entry just for the record and this will not see it.
God has placed all of us here. The heavens are controlled by the divine. On this Earth we are on our own and subject to the powers that be. Our Lord is not here to protect us physically, only spiritually while we are in the flesh. Sorry. That's how it is y'all.
hurricanechaser....He gives us the "free will" to choose for ourselves what we will do (even though He has the power to make us to do right, He wants us to do it on our very own).
Believers know this and you are correct. My Heavenly Father has a plan and I am not aware of what that might be. I just know that while I am on this earth I am secure in the understanding that I am not of this earth! My personal life is so fine knowing this. Took many years to get to this point but I am happy knowing what I know.
There's your Sunday morning sermon! How about the weather?
Good Geezus...How much more confusion can we expect?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED NEAR THE FL-GA
STATELINE WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE
GA/FL COAST.
MON NIGHT-TUE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST. THE GFS TAKES THE FEATURE N TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST...WHILE THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW WEST ACROSS S FL TUE
AFTN. HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD EITHER SOLUTION FOR THIS
PACKAGE AND GENERALLY ADVERTISE AN ONSHORE FLOW PRECIP PATTERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

MON...OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM WRF AND GFS TO EUROS ALL INDICATE SFC
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWD SAGGING FRONTAL TROUGH NR STATE. GFS LIES
FARTHEST EAST OF SUITE WITH EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM E OF STATE
AND A N MOVEMENT EARLY IN WEEK. THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
RESULTING FROM FEEDBACK OF INITIALIZED STORM CLUSTER OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. WRF AND EUROS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE
FROM N BAHAMAS TO COASTAL FL AROUND MON WITH SLOW DRIFT WWD
AFTERWARD. RESULTING LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
POSSIBLE SYS AFTER COORD W/JAX LEADS TO SPATIALLY CONSERVATIVE GFS
WHICH ALLOWS FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON SFC GENESIS CLOSER TO
AREA SHOULD IT OCCUR
NWS boys have no confidence in anythig developing off the SE coast. If something does...I say it wanders off in an Easterly fashion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL


GFS/NAM BOTH NOW DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRES OFF OF FLA E COAST AS THE BACK DOOR TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES SW
POSSIBLY INTO S FLA. CIRCULATION ABOUT THE DEVELOPING LOW COULD
ALLOW THIS BUT WOULD VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRES
SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD BACK TOWARD FLORIDA BY MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER AREA TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
BUT WOULD VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

That's why I depend on the local guys. They know the area.
769. IKE
Sunday morning sermon on Dr. Masters tropical weather blog............

I guess it is slow in the tropics.

Ain't nothin out there.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Day 74....only 109 days left and it's over. Hard to believe there will be 15 storms out of this season.
770. bswiv
Could someone please explain ITCZ?
Morning All
59W, 13N... Looks pretty damn impressive this AM. Floter2 shows a definite spin.
BigToe Lurks.....
Rand ,
that explains ITCZ.. how about one for TUTT
Is it possible that the wave now over Barbados Sunday am will ebventually be Debbie? Dry air exists, but looks okay on satellite and this is the first real,'proper weather' from m wave that we have got this season, plenty of rain and thunder/lightning, but no wind....
bajelayman...Nice to hear your report. This wave is tangled up with the ITCZ influence right now. Very low latitude....Not conducive for development.
seafarer459 ...Are you serious?
Rand,
yes i am. I understand that it has to do with the troposphere,I just don't know exactly what it means..
Big Toe,

I see the spin and it looks like the deepest convection has a very strong center. I think mother nature is waking up today!
TUTT....Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough.
Basically a cut-off cold core low. Most times a hurricane killer or in special circumstances can actually assist a cyclone through the venting process.
I say the wave over Barbados this am Sunday morning will eventually be Debbie.

Plenty of dry air the forecast says, but the low is there, convection and we are getting plenty of rain and lightning, thunder, tho little wind.

Nevertheless, I say its Debbie in the Caribbean Sea.
check this model out link
783. KRL
It's a beautiful morning here in SFL.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 19N WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED
INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW
CLOUD SWIRL IS NOW BENEATH THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N55W TO
12N61W. ALTHOUGH WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE 19N49W-16N55W.
Thank you Rand,
That was one of the terms i couldn't find in the weather glossary..
bajelayman...Sorry...it is not Debbie. Just some thundershowers.
I think the Barbados area is seeing the formation of Debbie.
788. bswiv
Thanks for the link. Explained it quite well, well enough for even the uneducated to understand.
KRL...Pretty nice this morning!
RAndrewl,

just saw your answer. Thanks

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N35W 6N46W 11N61W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN
ok now check this model out and just imagine if it is right and the high sst's out where the low is link
Good morning guys....There seems to be more model support this morning on a possible surface low forming of the coast of florida Were exactly the surface low forms if any is unknown at the moment .right now in my opinion it bears watching.Model support includes UKMET,NOGAPS,CMC and the NAM.

Models show a slow westward drift into florida.
I notice the areas around the wave near Barbados look like they are somewhat conducive for development.
amazinwxman....I'm not working models right now. I'm having coffee! You run them and get back. OK?
hurricane23...You need to read up the blog for my previous posts on this subject.
797. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:42 AM CDT on August 13, 2006.
Good morning guys....There seems to be more model support this morning on a possible surface low forming of the coast of florida Were exactly the surface low forms if any is unknown at the moment .right now in my opinion it bears watching.Model support includes UKMET,NOGAPS,CMC and the NAM.

Models show a slow westward drift into florida.


I agree......
Believe models on something that has not formed yet?
799. IKE
There seems to be more model support
IKE...Believe what you choose.
Hi guys can you answer a question? Does this anyone easle see this model NAM/Eta Model throwing something at SFLA?
803. IKE
If it does fine...if it doesn't fine.
funhouse23...Go back a page...I just posted all this there.
805. IKE
Have another cup of coffee and enjoy the day..........

Ah...that Maxwell House is soooo good...
IKE...I'm working on Folgers today but Max is great!
.....Nahh, STARBUCKS house blend rocks!!
good morning boys and girls...anyone would have guessed..that in mid july...we would go from blob watching..to model watching...LOL...has any model...been even halfway right yet in preformation predictions?....rand..help me out here...isn't the reason for using them this early...if something forms..you have more model history to look at when something has formed?
809. IKE
Posted By: BigToe at 7:02 AM CDT on August 13, 2006.
.....Nahh, STARBUCKS house blend rocks!!


No STARBUCKS in Defuniak Springs, Fl.....Maxwell House caffeine light works good for me....hey, I'm livin paycheck to paycheck!
dang the coffee talk...now i've got to get dressed...run down the hall...and grab a cup...too darn early in the morning
Sam's Club 3lb bag for 18 bucks. Lasts a good long time!
812. IKE
Posted By: ricderr at 7:04 AM CDT on August 13, 2006.
good morning boys and girls...anyone would have guessed..that in mid july...we would go from blob watching..to model watching...LOL...has any model...been even halfway right yet in preformation predictions?....


No...they've done a lousy job in 2006. Are they believable? No...

To be honest...there's just not much going on in the Atlantic tropics.

Folks in China would have loved this. Hate to see anybody hurt from tropical systems.
813. IKE
There ya go!!!!

There's a Sam's Club nearby in Fort Walton Beach.
Ike.... I'm with you bro. Weeks last longer than paychecks, but you gotta splurge womewhere..
ricderr....If there ain't nothing to see the models can't work it. Pretty simple people. If there is nothing......you get nothing!
816. IKE
I do know this much...the peak of the season is 4 weeks away. IF..this is going to be an above average season...systems should begin forming soon...if not, they need to lower their predictions again.

I noticed Randrewl saying yesterday that he thinks we might only get to the G storm. I'm beginning to agree with him.
This is what is working everyone up!

G.
Here are some of the model's a spoke about earlier....Iam at work so my options are limited right now.


ukmet

nogaps

nam
820. IKE
I understand...

You have to admit...it's hard to believe there can be this much difference between 2006 and...that year that I won't give........

I can't see 15 storms out of what I've seen this year.

There's my prediction. Patterns usually don't change that much...but, maybe I'm wrong...
ok.....i have coffee...a handache..and a bad attitude...but let me be the first to say...the blob presently over iowa..will be our next named stormed..and michael...if you say models show it as only extratropical...i will hunt you down
that's right....mickey d's has internet connections now.....da da da boom
Debby by tuesday, just a hunch tho.
BigToe out.
lol...rand....that abuse will not be tolerated..i'm hurt....shocked..and will have to ignore you til eternity...oh..and shut up too...lmao.....too darn funny...very well said...no blog...should be safe from a good joke
Now you're on to something! But can it pump water back too?
ok c buster...let's look at that theory....we're going to assume you will have big enough pipelines....let's look at time for that water to travel..size of pipe...and heat transference....given an average daytime temp of 82 degrees from start to finish....how many days for the water to travel..and what will most likely be it's temp when it arrives in key west...answer..and you can keep your dream alive bud..
ricderr...I'm laughing so hard still I can;'tsee totype!
cb......how old are you?..by the way...good answer on the first one....i knew that..but wanted you to keep it above ground so you would have to work harder
cyclonebuster...I'm spamming all your tunnel posts. You want to go through this again?
rand..it's slow....hopefully he's willing to learn....we can seetle this quick...and he will have proven it to himself....cb...serious for a moment..how old?
ok....fantastic..10 and willing to learn..and still a dreamer...ok...let's go with your theory of water at 68...water temp at keywest...probaly around 83...how much quantity....do you think you would need to lower the temperture of that big ocean?
well..to be 10 and a dreamer about something unrealistic..is a good thing..to be 20..and dreaming about the same thing...is sad
842. IKE
How old are you cyclone?

I'm 48.
843. IKE
The heck with the tunnels...your age?
Morning all. Just recovering from the B day yesterday...


CB 40 miles wide at what average depth?

It is also good to know that we are talking about only helping the E coast since you are gonna drop it in at Key West....
845. IKE
makes sense....talks about tunnels that ain't happenin...but won't give his/her age......
sorry cb...i'm done....when you say you've lied about your age....now you're 10 again...either wsy..where there is no trust..why bother...


849. IKE
That ULL that was suppose to cross Florida appears to have gotten caught up in that pesky trough off of the east coast and is moving NE.

Better watch that trough...dropping south..with high pressure predicted to build back in.
851. SLU
Posted By: Randrewl at 11:23 AM GMT on August 13, 2006.
bajelayman...Nice to hear your report. This wave is tangled up with the ITCZ influence right now. Very low latitude....Not conducive for development.



Nonsence Randrewl ...

The wave is located near 13n which is NOT too low-latitude for development to take place. I don't see where the ITCZ influence that you are talking about is. The only factors which will influence development are dry air and shear which the system appears to be handling just fine ATTM.
SLU...check the NHC for ITCZ positions.
853. IKE
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 8:09 AM CDT on August 13, 2006.
Lets keep sex, age, color,religion etc. etc. out of this!!


But you left one out....tunnels!!!!!
The wave that is currently affecting Barbados is on floater 2
856. SLU
well south of the low


857. IKE
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 8:16 AM CDT on August 13, 2006.
These are pipelines not tunnels!


Oops......

858. SLU
Next question Rand ...

How do you defend the "low-latitude" statement when the majority of the systems which form in that part of the Atlantic form between 10n and 15n?
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N35W 6N46W 11N61W
OK Ike and CycloneBuster lets drop the subject
hey have you all see that nic sinp in the blod down there by the Leeward Islands? and t-storm and deep t-storm been arond all night
Here's the middle of the night MLB disscussion involving possible development east of Fl.
MON...OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM WRF AND GFS TO EUROS ALL INDICATE SFC
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SWD SAGGING FRONTAL TROUGH NR STATE. GFS LIES
FARTHEST EAST OF SUITE WITH EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM E OF STATE
AND A N MOVEMENT EARLY IN WEEK. THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
RESULTING FROM FEEDBACK OF INITIALIZED STORM CLUSTER OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. WRF AND EUROS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE
FROM N BAHAMAS TO COASTAL FL AROUND MON WITH SLOW DRIFT WWD
AFTERWARD. RESULTING LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
POSSIBLE SYS AFTER COORD W/JAX LEADS TO SPATIALLY CONSERVATIVE GFS
WHICH ALLOWS FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON SFC GENESIS CLOSER TO
AREA SHOULD IT OCCUR. WITH RATHER HIGH MOISTURE AND W/NW FLOW ALOFT
FAVORING EAST PENINSULA FOR COVERAGE WL KEEP LIKELY PRECIP IN FCST
ACROSS AREA.
Skyepony...that's cool. Nobody or no models agree. Can't reach agreement here on an undeveloped entity. I'll still work against climatology and say an eastward movement type fashion.
868. IKE
Can't get an updated satellite.....
869. IKE
That's an old satellite TAZ.....
870. SLU
Posted By: SLU at 1:20 PM GMT on August 13, 2006.
Next question Rand ...

How do you defend the "low-latitude" statement when the majority of the systems which form in that part of the Atlantic form between 10n and 15n?
no it not the date says aung 13 on it that is todays photo
872. IKE
It's from about 12 hours ago. None of them are updating.
873. IKE
Now they are....

874. IKE
That trough off of the east coast of Florida is dropping SE and thunderstorms are firing up. I noticed pressures in the Bahamas are rather low....
875. SLU
Well great then ... I WIN

You can't respond
Pressures have been fairly low along that trough the past few days. It will be interesting to see what happens though.

I am certainly keeping an eye on that area.
Ike~ I had trouble getting in there earlier. It's good now. I'm with Taz, just watched the 45 after frame load on the rainbow. Got a little blob down there.

Randrewl~ I was glad to see Monday being the day to watch for something off the east coast form. They moved it up a little. This way maybe we can resolve our differences a little sooner...lol. West I say has a good chance!

The ULL above PR...Moveing NNE...Does it look like it is weakening??? Or is the dry air there fooling my eye? GOES-east WV
TWC sais no tropical development for a while the only area they are watching is the one off the Carolina coast but they said it is not likely but we all know about TWC
: SLU...I say that this system is at too low a latitude to develop more than a few thunderstorms. It shows no signs of northern migration and that is why I stated that.
: Skyepony it has a vary nic spin to it and deep t-storms as well what wait for 2hrs to see what it dos
Thundercloud watch your mouth! Now we all know TWC deserves to call themselves the Hurricane authority and with good cause LOL
What's that in the islands?
Skyepony ...Monday is still good....even better for me. But I would just as well concede now rather than to have any differences between us.
Ships & bouys E of FL

Ships & Buoys (well no ships at the moment) around the Lesser Antillies blob. (pressures are a little tiny bit lower here) don't have time to get into checking the wind directions.

Off to play.
That's sweet Randrewl, but friendly debate can be more fun & productive or are you thinking maybe west now too?? lol. Ya'll have fun & stick to the weather. I don't wanna come back to football, tunnels & ya'lls personal lives. There's other blogs on WU for all that:) Leave some thoughts on the strength of that ULL too.
888. SLU
WE NOW HAVE INVEST 92L AND 93L

off to the new blog now
try to keep this short. randrewl may GOD bless you saw your response to Chaser,
good to have another christian brother on this blog. Also today is Sunday so church is near.
For info purposes adrian asked for these constant pics of the same images to stop and also thier is a couple of
people constantly posting long italicized links. maybe just post the link and let the people decide if they want to see it or not.
have aa nice Lords day Billy