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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Another Bahamas Blob to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:48 PM GMT on July 05, 2006

An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands is associated with an upper-level low pressure system. This low is kicking up some strong thunderstorms just east of Florida, and is expected to drift west over Florida by Thursday. The low is cold-cored, but is making the slow transition to a warm-cored system. It needs to have a warm core in order to develop into a tropical storm, and this process typically takes three or more days. Wind shear in the area is marginaly favorable for tropical cyclone formation today, 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to decrease over the next day. There is an area of dry air over Florida for the system to contend with, and development will be hindered if its circulation center moves over the Florida Peninsula as expected Thursday. However, by Friday or Saturday, several computer models are indicating the possibility that the center will move back over the water east of Florida or Georgia, and a tropical cyclone will develop. Any storm that does develop is likely to get whisked quickly northwards or northeastwards by a strong trough of low pressure expected to move off the East Coast this weekend. People planning on spending the weekend on the Outer Banks of North Carolina should keep a careful eye on this system--the situtation is very similar to what we had at the end of June, when we almost had Tropical Storm Beryl hitting eastern North Carolina.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the blob of disturbed weather over the Bahamas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today.

Jeff Masters
What a night!
What a night!
Was I ever lucky tonight. I doubt this will happen again soon. Looking west, southwest towards downtown Coeur d' Alene. This is the view from my dad's lot.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new update, Dr. Masters!
what kind of effects does this have on florida's seabreeze fronts?
If the center of circulation which is now over the Florida Straits moves west or even northwest it will move out over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico with some good potential for development as the shear decreases.
I wonder when we are going to quit saying "close but no cigar" here in south Florida? I'm hoping to keep saying that all season, but I don't think I will get my wish.
it's never good when systems move into the Gulf..
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds.

leave your answers or comments at my blog.
It is fairly clear now that this system is heading NNW towards the southern FL peninsula. That is good news. But the whole thing has drifted way farther south than predicted before making this move. Hopefully this will "not" get into the Gulf.
GulfScotsman...Right at 24 and 80.
Checking the FL RAP visible satellite loop this morning, I can see the tropical wave axis at the surface extending roughly from the ULL in the FL Straights, to just off of Cape Canaveral, north to beyond about 30 N 79 W. To the west of the axis winds are from the NE, and on the east side of the axis winds are from the SE or SSE. The axis look like it will be moving west across the FL peninsula today. I wouldn't be surprised to see this axis be the focus for some thunderstorms as the heating of the day increases.
GulfScotsman...I have been monitoring the Key West radar all morning. There are a few areas of rain around there...but no real serious convection at the surface near the center of this yet. Supposedly it will move back off the east coast of FL and up the east coast. We'll have to see about that as the day progresses.
Earlier this morning this thing was heading almost due west. Now NNW and I'm thinking in the next couple hours a more northerly direction should evolve. Let's hope that happens!
Could we stop it with the "first comment" nonsense please? The post contributes nothing to the discussion, merely takes up space, and reads terribly immature.
I am new to this site - kind of a weather junkie and since I moved to Savannah (from San Diego) have had to keep an eye on this stuff now. Pressure needs to go down for a storm to develop? Wind shear has to go away? I realize Florida gets hit quite often and Georgia seems to get missed alot of the time apparently (although we did get a bit of the last one). Do these storms usually bypass Georgia altogether and go right for the Carolinas?
Melwrle, It is a matter of geography. The Carolinas extend farther eastward than Georgia and also have a much larger coastline.
that blob reminds me of Hurrican Rita or Katrina as it passes near the Keys. It needs to get it act together and hit the Gulf and turn into a cat 5, like its sisters before.

Its already July 5 and we should already be on letter "D". We are behind, lots to make up in the following weeks...

Is there anyone logged in from Miami south? It would be helpful for "local" info. Key West is reporting variable winds at 3mph...pressure 1016mb Miami, calm...1017 mb.
Buhdog...LOL.....174th!
winds at 3mph...wow
What makes a hurricane spin clockwise? I know they dont spin counter clockwise and I was jus wondering what keeps it spinning that way?
clockwise is the wrong way.

and you need to read up hurricane 101 and the coriolis effect
Because that is the way a toilet bowl spins.
cturtlzz
It is the Coriolis effect
Also it is counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere
ok, we almost had beryl on the last Bahama Blob......

originally, the last storm was given a 10-20% chance of developing....and ALMOST became a TD.....

what are the chances of this becoming a TD or beyrl.....

my guess, we have a better than even chance of this storm developing, my reasoning is simple..... i dont think this system is faced with as much "adversity" as the last blob......

so if the conditions are "slightly better" for this blob, seems reasonable that something will "more than likely form".....

there does seem some model support from several models......

guess we shall see... :)
I say it strengthens and hits N.O or Luisa...then they getting flooded again and they get taken off the map... muhahah
Folks, a wonderful basic reference book (and a good read) on wind and weather for lay people who are just getting into tropical weather is "Windswept - The Story of Wind and Weather", by Marq de Villiers.

Has lots of weather 101, all the basics of hurricane formation, amazing anecdotes (including wild stories about the Hurricane Hunter flights), and also provides a narrative about the history of Hurricane Ivan (the only Atlantic hurricane to make Cat 5 status 3 separate times over its life).
thelmores > our issue this year is not SST its wind shear...
Thank you Snowboy...will pick that one up.
whirlwind, don't be an ass..
view my blog everyone and post some comments
anyhow ill stop gotta run.

you'll see... less tropical development because of wind shear, plain and simple
Regarding the Disturbance:
There does not yet seem to be any evidence of a closed circulation at the surface and the surface pressure remain fairly high.
cturtlzz - As you can see, we are all about education on this blog;)

There is clockwise rotation in a mature hurricane at the upper levels of the atmosphere due to the upper-level high that forms to pull the rising air in the convection away from the center of the storm.

At the lower levels, the flow is counterclockwise due to the surface low pressure. This applies to the Earth's Northern Hemisphere and is due to the Coriolis effect, which is a consequence of the Earth's rotation around its axis.

Here is a good link with details on basic principles and structure of tropical cyclones.
Typhoon Ewiniar update - the system has weakened slightly (to 115 knots) and made a significant jog to the west. It is forecast to reintensify then weaken once more and hit Okinawa as a strong Cat 2 (with 90 knot sustained winds) on Friday, and south Japan as a Cat 1 on Sat.
What does anyone think of the NHC report 'Tropical Storm could form around Florida'? Is this likely in your opinion?
Ya well this so called "dry air over Florida" is bein pushed out today so this system has nothing to worry,deep moiture with PWATS 2.00+ MOVING IN TO FLORIDA THIS EVENING,THERE WILL BE NO MORE DRY AIR.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND
OVER TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W. A NEAR STATIONARY BUT
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WED AND RETURN TO FLORIDA AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST AND THE UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE W OVER THE PENINSULA.

$$
WALLACE
Upper level lows:
Link
54. IKE
I don't see a NNW movement in that ULL...looks like it's moving almost due west. I see it centered at about 24N, 80.5W.
Rand---

remeber when I said I was waiting for this to take off south than west...then do something unexpected? Here it comes. Who has water temps for the keys up to Tampa? It is 88 deg here in the Gulf off of Cape Coral. They say a big time shortwave will be digging in to take this up and out to the NE eventually. That would have to be a hell of a wave considering how far south this is aready.
57. IKE
Looks like it's paralleling the Florida keys...west or slightly north of west entering the steamy hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
I wish death to this "bahama blob"!
Buhdog....Agree. I really expect the unexpected with this. This whole thing smells! Water is too hot and that fact alone makes this a very dangerous area for any low of any type to be. I don't care about the shear on this today. That will drop off some more later. This is not good!
60. IKE
Maybe closer to 81W now. Slightly north of 24N.
MZappala...For now just keep watching that swirl. If it starts to take on a surface reflection you will see more convection there.
At this time, according to CIRA:
Low-level cyclonicity 2 and maybe increasing (favorable)
Wind shear 20-25 kt (unfavorable)
Vertical instability 6 (adequate)

also:

SST 28-29 (marginal to adequate)

Quikscat still looks like a wave



This thing still has a long way to go. The previous disturbance wasn't battling this much shear.
66. IKE
Keep an eye on that spin south of Key West.

Pressure at Key West is @ 30.02 but it's only risen slightly this morning...Interested to see what happens this afternoon. It was @ 29.99 this morning @ 5-6 am central..so it's only risen about 1 mb.
Remember last year as Dennis spent 6 hours or whatever on the Cuban mainland, and the forcasters were saying that it "had a lot of work to do" "dry air to compete with" and was "unlikely to rapidly strengthen". Then the Cat 1 hits the gulf and turns into a 145 mph hurricane. If it gets into the gulf, then something like that on a much smaller scale could happen.
Pressure:

Grand Cayman 1014 (todays low 1010)
Cayman Brac 1017 (todays low 1013)

Had about 2 inches of rain today so far here in George Town (20 so far this year)

though the blob bears watching, this is not something that is about to explode into a tropical storm - it will develop slowly (if at all) over the next few days..
70. IKE
Hadn't noticed until I viewed a Caribbean satellite loop...but that impressive blob south of Cuba looks like it almost has a rotation in it. Maybe that's where the low-level center might form??? Just a guess...nothing scientific here.
IKE....Doesn't appear to be a surface thing there yet. Cuba radar:
Link
GulfScotsman - I was curious myself about the dynamics of cold-core to warm-core transition, and wanted to learn more about it. Here is a few interesting links that I found.

1) The concept of a 3D cyclone phase space formulated by Robert Hart seems to be the most recent advancement as a technique for modeling the structure of cyclones and forecasting cyclone transitions between the different types. The homepage for this theory of modeling cyclone genesis and evolution is at this Florida State University site.

2) Here is a MS Powerpoint presentation by Robert Hart and Jenni Evans, Department of Meteorology, Penn State University, with some case studies and very descriptive graphical illustrations. This presentation is based on the seminal paper on the subject of cyclone phase spaces for cyclone development, transition and classification:
Hart, Robert E., "A Cyclone Phase Space Derived from Thermal Wind and Thermal Asymmetry", Monthly Weather Review 2003 131: 585-616.

3) A 2006 PDF presentation by Davis et al (NCAR) with some more case studies of cold-core to warm-core transition.

4) An article written by Meteorologist Clark Evans on flhurricane.com(See Pg. 2).

Any addititonal information or discussion/corrections are welcome.



10N 80W, 20N 80W, and 25N 80W All look Decent. lol. Lets freak out over em and then get Mildly disipointed when they don't form.
Oh, and Dennis was no biggie... Rode under the eyewall for like... 15 minutes I think... Nice wind but really unimpressive. I was expecting more from a cat 3...
Didnt Even peel the shingles from my roof.. lol. We did loose a couple of trees though.
nice links guygee, look forward to looking at some of that stuff when i get a chance......

anybody want to venture a guess as to the track this ull will take?

will it continue into the gulf, and cross mid-upper florida, or possible a u-turn back over south florida?

just trying to picture in my mind how this will play out.....
Looking like daytime heating about to kick in..Spiral Banding coming across south florida.

gasolina out there in dem waters
jphurricane2006....That's the truth. I'm finally getting a few showers now. Nothing major yet but the forecast has been for better than 50% since Monday. This is the first rain here.
interesting that dennis started as a sub-tropical storm as well.....

does anybody remember that we actually had an unnamed sub-tropical storm from last year....

"Unnamed Subtropical Storm
Unnamed Subtropical Storm SS
Unnamed subtropical storm (2005).jpg
Duration October 4, 2005October 5, 2005
Intensity 50 mph (80 km/h), 997 mbar (hPa)

In the post-season analysis, the National Hurricane Center identified an additional subtropical storm that had gone unnoticed during the course of the season. The storm formed on October 4 and was absorbed by a non-tropical low the next day after passing over the Azores, where Santa Maria Island reported sustained winds up to 40 mph (60 km/h). The low that absorbed the storm would eventually become Hurricane Vince. At its peak, the storm had winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 997 mbar (hPa). No damages or casualties were reported.[30]"

so the record season could have had one more named storm.....
Winds here (mouth of Tampa Bay waters) switched from onshore to offshore almost 2 hours ago. That is a good 3-4 hours ahead of our typical wind pattern. Should make for an interesting afternoon although nothing building at the moment.
we actually got less rain than normal yesterday in some areas of S florida. I think this is because normal seabreeze collisions were over-ridden by spiral banding. this caused the storms to form a thin line up and down the coast as oppose to an expanding mass of clouds. Lots of dry air inbetween
Ok I live in the Tampa bay area,water temps are a very warm 87 to 90 degrees here.Been at the beach all day last 2 days its real hot but nice if your used to it.
New invest...not ours
Link
I was out in the waters (Shell Island/Egmont Key) over the weekend and had a few close calls with the intense lines moving offshore. We had wicked lines move offshore Sunday, Monday and yesterday. Quick intense storms - I show 2 inches of rainfall already for July.

Jedkins - where were you that you didn't have to run for cover while on the beach? I know the lines had some gaps - were you nestled in one?
The last tropical system didn't gain any traction until after it was leaving Florida. This one looks like it may dip under & parallel the West coast before heading NNE or NE. I wouldn't mind this scenario since Gainesville didn't get much rain from the last two disturbances to cross the state.
Thanks thelmores - One more good link (PDF):
2001-2003 REAL-TIME USE OF CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS TO IMPROVE STRUCTURAL DIAGNOSIS & FORECASTING
Robert E. Hart and Jenni L. Evans

Get it while it is still online...

Now the harder part is understanding how this all applies to the current case of possible tropical transition of the ULL that looks to be rolling into the GoM through the FL straights on the big RAP WV loop as I write this.

I am surprised that there is not yet much thunderstorm development over the FL peninsula yet, but there is a broad area of cylonic turning over the south central part of the state, and several small vortices evident in the current radar loop.
Posted by whirlwind

that blob reminds me of Hurrican Rita or Katrina as it passes near the Keys. It needs to get it act together and hit the Gulf and turn into a cat 5, like its sisters before.

Its already July 5 and we should already be on letter "D". We are behind, lots to make up in the following weeks...



Keep in mind that the first storm of 2004 didn't form until august. And usually D isn't reached by this point in the season.
From the Melbourne 10:00 AM AFD:
[...]
MORNING RAOBS SHOW A PRETTY HEALTHY DISPARITY IN MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE STATE WITH KJAX <1.4"...KTBW A LITTLE OVER 1.5"...MFL ~1.75"... AND KXMR OVER 2.0". HENCE OVER ECFL...EXPECT DECENT COVRG (60) JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE FAR WEST INTR WHERE THE LOCAL AIR MASS IS A BIT DRIER. [...]
***NOTE*** WIND DATA THE LAST SEVERAL HRS AT 41009 LOOKS SUSPECT(LOW) AND NDBC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED.
hey all i this noted a 3rd bold on the photo now we got 3 to keep a eye on
98. IKE
Pressures already falling in the keys...down to 30.00....was @ 30.02 an hour ago.
GulfScotsman - You are right about the shear, and if the ULL moves into the Gulf the shear increases. But the area of convection east of the Bahamas has less than 5 knots of shear.
I'd like to ask everyone to stop the "First Post" contest in this blog. It serves nothing and is an annoyance. Please flag these comments as Spam.

Thanks.
hey aron there you are lol how it been going
wow aron this is the 1st time i seen you post in her wow
Can we flag Tazmanian's posts also since they are also an annoyance and serve no purpose.
: pleeeze shut up and go a way
Tazmanian....LOL!
Very new to all this. I had a quick question why on the satellite does it looks like to areas of stroms one over bahamas and one over cuba. Are these 2 the same area of distrubance?
: Randrewl why thanks you you think that was well said
funhouse23 welocome i am taz how are you
Tazmanian...What's up at the Navy site? You checked lately?
hello good afternoon people
Oh, man...

Taz can tell you that pleeeze uses offensive language, calling everybody (including him) jack@sses and telling everybody to suck his toe and other stuff like that.
pleeeze...That's really very rude. Please do not pick on Taz.
By: pleeeze get lots you made me lots a good frinds on her thank to you not now get lots
Im good just wathcing this blob for now
aron we need you come her lol oh dr M can you ban this pleeeze from your blog he is nuts
funhouse23....The really big blobs are not the system. The one to watch is in The Florida Straits between Cuba and s FL. Unless of course "something" else develops.
pleeze you need too chill out
Posted By: StormThug at 10:56 AM PDT on July 05, 2006.
pleeze you need too chill out


pleeze is not welcome her i made me lots a good frinds that i mmy not see any more on her he need to get lots and go way
Pleeeze is probably huricanechaser (Jeff) in disguise...
Welcome fun! the blob we're watchin is cold core, generally on a cold core system the convection (bright colors) are no where near the spin.
(Thanx Randrewl)Ok i see the one your talking about between cuba and FL. What are the 2 blobs though? are they part of it or just independent showers?

Thx Funhouse23
pleeze is spamming for a non-existant weather site. "Pleeze" inform the sysadmin.
MichaelSTL yes you are right

ban Pleeeze from this blog be for this trun in to a fight
Ohhh ok Skye thanks I did not know that sorry. Where can i read more tidbits like that?
who is fighting?
HEY GUYS LIKE YOUR THOUGHT S ON THIS whops sorry hit cap
button this system actually could be decoupled with one piece heading
nne and the are around cuba into the gulf we had a SIMILAR SITUATION LIKE THIS last year with
gert and franklin although if something does go into gulf it will adventually turn more nnw
By the way, the CMC has been showing a monster typhoon developing for quite a while now (I am not sure how the windfield at the 925 mb level translates to the windfield at the surface, but it must stiil be like 2-3 Katrinas wide).
Its a surface trough of low pressure that extends from the NW Bahamas to Cuba. This system, if it were to develop, may develop anywhere along this trough.
In cases like these, I look to the models for guidance.
ricderr I hate these meta-discussions too, but we have to learn to tolerate each other and keep some level of civility. One of pleeeze's comments above is rude and over the top.
So when this cold core system becomes warm core system convention will be near the circulation?
Would that be the comment about Taz or the one about Spaz?
Randrewl yes i have we do not have any 98L 99L or 100L at this time
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 23.5N 80W IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS WREAKING HAVOC WITH THE SUMMER SUNSHINE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE AROUND
THIS LOW CENTER FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS.
Link
i guess that blob near the the bahamas has a good chance to become tropical
funhouse23...If the cold-core transitions to warm-core you will then see convection within the circulation.
If the CMC is right, a massive typhoon will hit Japan in a week or so...

I just realized something - 2004 had like 10 typhoons hit Japan and the Atlantic was pretty quiet until August; what if this year is like 2004?
MichaelSTL...I hope you don't have any more flashbacks like that this season.
guygee.....

I agree with you as to the commentof his being rude and over the top. It seems to me that reporting it to admin is far better than wasting space commenting about it and gicing the author the "15 minutes of fame" he so desires
MichaelSTL a massive typhoon are you tslking about this one or would this be from 98W and when you saw big are you talking like cat 4 or 5 typhoon?
Tazmanian...Thanks Taz. Let us know if they give us an invest ok?
: Randrewl ok well do
Based on the size on the phase analysis (I would like to see a GFDL run for it, but they don't do them for West Pacific storms), it will be huge (like this typhoon), although I don't know how the windfield at 925 mb compares to the surface windfield. Also, the intensity can only be guessed at, as the phase analysis does not accurately show the pressure of a tropical system.
Regarding the size: Usually, only extratropical systems are that large, but what the CMC is forecasting is obviously a tropical system.
point well taken ricderr
Wind shear has dropped considerably near the Bahamas, 5 to 10kts. 30kt shear is nowhere to be found. Also, look at the 12Z GFS and NAM they are starting to show development east of Miami and then pull it NNE.
why was wilma windfield large?
: MichaelSTL i think you may lot to take a look at the GFDL one more time are you say that we could have a big hurricane overe that has a 870 or lower md if that plays out this right
Here is what the CMC analysed for Katrina (same diagram for the forecast typhoon).
When I look on the zoom satellite, there appears to be a spin in land cloud cover - central Florida, just to the east of Tampa. The wind direction readings here (Gulfport/St. Petersburg), over the past 3 hours, are all over the board and pressure is on a steady drop. Does this mean anything?

-Stormy
The GFDL is not used in the West Pacific; see here (note that the most recent GFDL run is for Invest 97E and is over 2 days old).
060705/0000 GFS and NAM are both consistent in initializing the FL ULL and showing a trough at 500 mb digging near or just off of the east coast by 72 hours. Convection near the Bahamas gets pulled N to NE in this scenario.
: MichaelSTL so in the next day or so we could be talking about a 870mb storm or lower if this plays out
I said nothing about the pressure; I am talking about the windfield (shown to be about 2-3 Katrinas wide).
30 kts is more in the Gulf. I am focusing in on the area form just off the SE coast of Fl. to the Bahamas. Shear has dropped off in the area.
*from
: weatherguy03...That's correct. I see what you are saying.
Stormy2day - I see that spinning too, near Lakeland FL. I have seen that develop in the daytime before. I think it is more of a mesoscale effect of daytime heating and land-sea interactions over the peninsula.
Just something to watch for tonite. See if that shear keeps dropping. I feel we are gonna get development Just East of SE Fl. coast or near the Bahamas. Of course, it has a ways to go, but that would be the area of would look at.
*I

If only I can type also!..LOL
How long has Dr. M called these blobs?

XD
guygee -
Lived in the area for over 20 years, experienced the weather, but am a rookie at watching the data aspect of our weather. You all have been wonderful at answering my remedial questions - thanks.
-stormy
Gulf, thats why I said "starting to show development" That wasnt even there the last few model runs, and it has showed up at 12Z. Just something to watch for.
But 850mb vortex is usually a good sign that surface development may happen.
GulfScotsman - when I look for development, I do not use the vorticity loops to look for formation; I first look at the sea level pressure loops (I bolded sea level because if you see a cyclone - closed isobars around a center that has lower pressure, you know that it has to be a surface cyclone). I usually think of vorticity as being supplemental when looking for development. Also, I use the cyclone phase analysis to see if a system is forecast to be a tropical storm or not (a tropical cyclone is a non-frontal warm-core cyclone); the analysis also has things like the exact forecast track, size of windfield and SSTs.
Actually, when looking at the models, you need to look at everything. Its like putting a puzzle together. Upper levels, lower levels, vorticity, etc...
183. IKE
If it develops east of Florida....Bahamas area...it will get pulled north then NE by the approaching trough....fish storm. Maybe Bermuda...
184. IKE
On a visible loop, it looks like another center is forming SE of Miami and moving toward the NNW or N.
I've been looking for the link to the SST information that was provided. It allowed us to see the SST chart for June of 2006 and compare it with past months and years to see the increase in SST in the Gulf / Atlantic Coast regions. Can someone post that link again? I would really appreciate it. Thanks!

Geoff
There is a nice comparison on stormjunkie's blog

Link
IKE...It sure looks that way doesn't it?
IKE, that would be the area I would focus on tonite.
weatherguy03...Yeah....the NHC said in the latest discussion. 23.5 and80. That's right where the visible shows this. Which means the thing shifted back east in the past three hours and drew in closer to that convection over Andros Island. Ya gotta love these systems! They'll do this won't they. Then they'll do it again.
Just never know. We may be looking at five other spins before its over and then nothing will happen!..LOL Should be interesting.
195. IKE
On that IR loop on floater 1....looks like more of a WNW movement. Seems like that's the center of this "blob" SE of Miami
What we need is an organized Blob naming system. When one appears it should be assigned a number or a letter. Then we can keep track of this Blob thing. This is getting to be a brain tangler!
Theres some very healthy convection starting to develop suspiciously to the NE of the rotational center.
JFLORIDA ...That would be the Andros Blob.
ah and the mbs are falling we may be looking at 98L vary soon if this keeps going
Its doing well today. The shear isnt as bad as I thought it would be. The pressures are better also.
Pressures, as a rule, will fall during the day in that area. Will have to see if that consistantly fall during the night.
Gulf...There's no buoy's available in that location.
You'll have to fly in there and get us a reading.
Dont see as much dry air in the Upper Levels as I saw with past systems here. That and the lowering shear is what peaked my interest this morning..LOL
Good Afternoon all...looks like we might have Invest 96L.......

My blog with todays question about the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricanes.
From JMA
TY 0603 - Ewiniar 85 kts 935 hPa

From NRL
TY 03W - Ewiniar (Ester) 105 kts 938 mb (Category 3 Storm)
Posted By: Weather456 at 12:48 PM PDT on July 05, 2006.
Good Afternoon all...looks like we might have Invest 96L.......

you mean 98L
Taz lol, no they're up to 97L next on the list.
if there was a 94L used twice, as I heard.. =P
My pressure has dropped 2mb since this morning to 1011mb. I'm about 150 miles north. And yes the barometer is calibrated! Of course we have had some thunderboomers through here this afternoon.
Here is what the Melbourne NWS forecasters are thinking, from the 225 PM EDT AFD:
[...]
THU...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REPOSITION ITSELF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE EAST CENTRAL FL IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...FAVORING CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ABOVE TWO INCHES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...GRADUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. GFS SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL VORT WILL FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL...THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND WILL BE DISREGARDED....
hops sorry all did not no we where up to 97L i was worg you are right
Again very new to this. Where can I see all these models like the GFDL
jphurricane2006...Last blob we had pressures available from all over the Bahamas.
convection has been flareing up all morning over the bahamas....

here's a IR pic from floater 1.
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funhouse23 ...Go to stormjunkie.com. He has all of them there.
jphurricane2006 - I would be surprised to see that low persist past midnight, but I certainly could be wrong. I've seen low level circulations like this one form during the daytime heating when the east coast seabreeze pushes in faster over the northern peninsula, while the West coast seabreeze dominates over the southern peninsula.

Could be hard to separate cause and effect in this case, though.
Will not get a GFDL model run until we get an INVEST.
With all this convection we'll have to call all these Blobs the West Atlantic & Caribbean Blob.
thanx Randrewl
Sorry bout that guys here's the ir pic on floater 1.
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jphurricane2006...Got it.
jphurricane2006 - Right, I've seen lows like this one form before in the daytime due to seabreeze interactions under certain conditions...but we will have to see on this one.
jphurricane2006 .....Yah, this system is nowhere near where it was forecast to be at this time on Monday!
Well, guys.

Huge ammounts of convection to the northeast and south... The Blob God has spoken... Hes handing this one over to the higher dieties now.
the weather channel is useless unless lyons is on there but they did show the UPPER LEVEL LOW
well on sattellite moving pretty briskly through the
keys unless my geography is wrong its actually ssw of miamii and apperas to be moving due west
what you think bob all these vortices usually mean you have nothing developing.
jphurricane2006....I don't expect much out of this unless it remains over water. If it heads over FL like it is forecast to do then probably no chance until it exits again...if it does. The rest of this mess over the Bahamas could eventually give us some problems.
Anything could develop along this troff.
Correct Saint. This thing is not even close to becoming developed. Has a ways to go. Usually I dont pay much attention to these Upper Level systems, as you know from the past few..LOL But, this one peaked my interest because of the lowering of the shear, and the model runs.
And again, pay no attention to the ULL. That is not where this thing is gonna develop if it does. Most likely it will develop east of the ULL position.
jphurricane2006...Yah...we got lucky with this one...so far!
Not quite JPH... But if you remember katrina... Its pretty damn close.
jphurricane2006...Good point. Just even though it is upper....the land thing will probably be its demise.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
It might not develop into anything more than a blob which is fine by me.
CaneMan.. You angered the blog gods yesterday. It'll be Category 7 hurricane death.
hello

Here in Havana we are getting a severe local thunderstorm with some heavy winds since four oclock in the afternoon but no reported damage. But we agree with Dr. Jeff Master that the big action is due after 5 to 7 days from now.
I think this one could go near or in the UUL the area just SW of it looks interesting The 4pm BUOY UPDATES ARE OUT finally.
jphurricane2006...Like Gulf just said. Pressure around the Bahamas has been dropping slightly all day. Average 2mb.
The Bahamas look like the Great Pumpkin made a crash landing!
Taz....Anything from the Navy yet???? I hope you are monitoring.
SUGARKING - It is hard to get good observations from Cuba. I have this INSMET link for Estaciones Meteorolgicas, but I cannot find wind directions or pressure readings.

Thank you for posting here, and by all means please post here more often!
267. PBG00
Hey everyone..just got back from a little vaca..looks like things are heating up.trying to catch up..but can anyone tell me if this blob is worth looking at?
Sugarking...yes, we need you on here. Your input will be invaluable to all of us!
271. PBG00
Pick one..They are all part of the same wave?
jphurricane2006...Gizmo...LOL!
PBG00...Take a look around and then observe the FL Straits for the prize.
jphurricane2006...Yah, been observing that but Key West radar is only showing a slight hint of any surface thing there. Let's see how that goes
Link
Off-topic of the development near FL, I've been watching that large ULL spinning over the Central Atlantic for at least two weeks now, centered in the mean somewhere in the lat-long grid bounded by 20 N to 40 N and 40 W to 60 W. It has been very persistant and vigorous, with spokes of vorticity at times extending down below 15 N and as far west a Cape Hatteras. Now, note on the Tropical RAMSDIS WV loop the large upper-level high around 20 N 40 W finally pulling this ULL northeast.

It looks it may finally be the demise of this ULL, which, when centered above the Atlantic surface high, caused a lot of shear. If the large ULH moves in to replace it, could this change in the overall pattern signal the beginning of the Cape Verde season this year?