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Andrea's smoke a major hazard

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:43 PM GMT on May 12, 2007

Andrea refuses to totally die. Thunderstorm activity associated with the remnant low continues to flare up, and wind shear remains low enough (10 knots) to permit redevelopment of this system. Current radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows some disorganized rainbands surrounding the center of the storm, and infrared satellite loops show intermittent bursts of thunderstorms, particularly to the east of the center. The activity as seen on radar and satellite is not very organized, and any redevelopment of Andrea should be slow to occur. However, the remains of Andrea have some tropical storm force winds of 45-55 mph a few hundred miles east of the center, as seen in this morning's 7:29am EDT QuikSCAT pass. Water vapor loops show some very dry air around the remnants of Andrea, and sea surface temperatures are still a rather cool 24-26 C. By Sunday, wind shear will increase to near 20 knots, and a trough of low pressure is expected to finally move Andrea's remains out to sea.

NHC put out this special advisory at 9pm today:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND A CONTINUED MOTION AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Figure 1. True color image from NASA's Terra satellite of the remains of Andrea off the coast of Florida at 12:30 pm EDT Friday May 11, 2007. The counter-clockwise circulation around the storm fanned fires (red dots near the Florida/Georiga border) and drew the smoke all the way along the length of Florida, and into the center of the storm. Note the huge area of smoke covering the Gulf Of Mexico, blown there on previous days. Image credit:NASA.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
The strong winds of Andrea fanned the huge fires burning in the Florida/Georgia border region, and the counterclockwise flow of air around the low drew the smoke over the entire length of Florida yesterday. The Air Quality Index (AQI) for particle pollution reached the "Very Unhealthy" level between 10am and 5pm yesterday in both Tampa and St. Petersburg. "Very Unhealthy" values trigger a health alert, meaning everyone may experience more serious health effects. For several hours the AQI exceeded 300 in both cities. An AQI of 300 is the threshold for "Hazardous" air pollution, which the EPA defines as "Health warnings of emergency conditions. The entire population is more likely to be affected". Air quality in the Tampa Bay area was among the worst ever measured there; at the USMC Reserve Center monitoring site in Hillborough County, particulate matter pollution reached 753 micrograms per cubic meter, and the 24 hour average was 198--nearly six times the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter.

Fortunately, residents seem to be paying attention to the air pollution advisories. "Area hospitals reported just a handful of patients complaining about breathing problems, which was an encouraging sign for health officials who say people with poor health seem to be heeding warnings to stay inside", according to the St. Petersburg Times. But there's no doubt that the pollution is very dangerous. Take a look at this comment posted on the Tampa Bay Tribune web site yesterday:


After my mile walk this evening at 11pm, I felt tired and weak at the knees later about midnight my heart pounded fast and hard. I have slight chest pain, anxiety comes in waves, lying down is worse, my throat feels opened up and there.s too much cold air, my throat is scratchy and my lungs are sore. I might need to call 911 It.s now 2:45am sometimes I feel like I might die. like my heart may explode. I was OK yesterday. An hour later I was feeling better thank God! I've wondered if it was the smoke in the air from the brush fires. I checked my resting heart rate before and it was 100 beats a minute. Now it's 56 beats a minute. I went to bed at 4:00am however I woke up 3 hours later 7am I started getting mild symptoms again. I found a face mask. It does help.


People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should avoid all physical activity outdoors during the heavy smoke conditions. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion. Pay attention to the air pollution advisories issued for your area. This air pollution episode has the potential to be far more deadly than any hurricane that has affected Florida over the past 79 years!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The GOM ULL has Andrea in her clutches..thus the Se shear ..
The smoke has been bad in the Ft Lauderdale area also.
Do you think Andrea will ever re form or go away
It'll be moving out to sea in the next 24-48 hours.
..."By Sunday, wind shear will increase to near 20 knots, and a trough of low pressure is expected to finally move Andrea's remains out to sea"....from the entry above
OK, now someone say, "i've seen less become a cat 5!!"

Then someone say "even if it did reform it will be picked up and taken out to sea"

Next "Someone wishcast it west"

Finally "it's an eye! a pinhole eye!!"

OK, it's all done, no need to have this discussion again.
Thanks for the update Dr M.

I just could not believe the radar images and pics from Tampa. Seriously thick smoke!
Yeah, tampa is sure getting some nasty plumes. It still amazes me how far south the smoke is traveling.
People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should avoid all physical activity outdoors during the heavy smoke conditions. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion. Pay attention to the air pollution advisories issued for your area. This air pollution episode has the potential to be far more deadly than any hurricane that has affected hurricane over the past 80 years!

Dr. Masters....I have to tell you,that statement is very misleading.I don't know if you just didn't type it up the way you meant to or something like that,but what you wrote is that this pollution episode could kill more than 2000 people,if I read correctly.Maybe I'm wrong,but doesn't that seem just a little unlikely,given that there's been no deaths thus far,and conditions appear as though they will be improving:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

...SMOKY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT RELIEF IS ON THE
WAY...




Rain like that over the state will wash out the atmosphere of particles.
" I give Andrea a 10% chance of regaining her name over the next 24 hours. By Sunday, wind shear will increase to near 20 knots, and a trough of low pressure is expected to finally move Andrea's remains out to sea."

Andrea's Gone .................. there is no chance for it to reform,I think we here in florida have to relay onm the gulf low to bring in some rain !!!!!
Hey WBK, do you think that the low in the Gulf will develop? I swear I can detect a weak circulation.
Low in the GOM?It's a ULL with no model support for cyclogenesis.I doubt we'll see even an invest out of it.
And buoys in the Gulf all show northerly to NNW winds.There's no type of surface circulation that I can see.
Hmm, I see. I just get the feeling we'll be in for one heck of a hurricane season this year..... Everything is trying to develop, and it's only May.
lmao at your discussion hg...looks like we are done here for the day then ☺ All has been covered...

!~)
Probably Koritheman.Heat potential in the Carribean is even warmer in the Carribean and Bahamas than this time in 2005...so,if that's any indication,yes it should be a busy year.
Thanks SJ, I wondered if anyone got it. I am just joking though, the blob watching and the "yes it is" "no it isn't" is how I learn.
Andrea has indeed taken advantage of the diurnal minimum, I still think it can be re-classified. More info here:

Hurricane Warning
SJ & HG, you forgot to put "and the lord, STORMTOP said" then lefty would argue and I would egg em all on with stupid terminology... lol...HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND ALL!! (hope the fires get hosed) I'm going take my last final and then go fishing...yippee
Good Luck cajun, on the final and the fishing!
Is it my imagination or is the African wave-train more active than usual for this early in the season?
thanks homegirl,

on a more serious note...the models do hint at some possible development in the Bahamas by the middle of next week, but it looks like it will get swept out to sea. Bermuda may have to watch it.
lol cajun ST reference☺... and thanks! Great to see ya.
Hope to keep improving the site throughout the season. Any input, suggestions, or links are always welcome :~)

hg-I know what you mean. That is the only reason I found it funny. That is the way we all learn in one form or another ☺

PD, that is the ITCZ right now, and for one it will need to move N some, it is also not inherently a sign of a busy season, but we will have to see if it continues over the next month or two.

Alright, y'all have a great day. I'll check in on ex-Andrea later, she just can't seem to make up her mind if she wants her name back or not.

Good morning,

Looking at visible imagery and from i can see the COC is being detached from the area of convection and that usually does not bode well for futher intensification and as i mentioned yesterday the areas of convection that keep popping are from outflow bounderies that keep collideing.Also wanted to come on early development which in my opinion has no bearing in whats to come later this season.These type of out of season developments occur every once in a while.

I do agree with most that this season looks to be quite active number wise.Will they hit land nobody knows remember it only takes one to ruin lives.

Adrian's Weather
SJ,

by the way

your site looks good! Keep it up! Link
Good healthy debate, that's my favorite type of learning :)
I wonder how much CO2 the fires have released into the atmosphere. Speaking of which, last month CO2 hit a new record, crossing the 385 and 386 ppm marks in one month. Link
Yeah, SJ, like you site, too! It's bookmarked.
31. MZT
My gut says last night was "Andrea"s last chance. The ULL and the high pressure nearby make this a more difficult environment to reform in.

If "Andrea" (cough) couldn't do it while being left alone, she most likely won't now either.
Thanks y'all ☺ ☺ ☺

See everyone later!
Wishcasting for it to hit florida and help dampen the wild fires.
Good Morning...Thought I would let you know I opened a new Blog on Air Quality on the Frozencanuck site. It might we worth a read. Please take caution like Dr Masters stated with regards to going outdoors today in those areas affected. Even a cloth handerchief over your nose and mouth will help but the best are those masks you can purchase at your local pharmacies like we used in the hospitals up here during the SARS problem.
I'll be checking in later to see if recon goes out, ttfn!
I wish Lefty and STORMTOP would come back. It was fun when they were here. I know everyone ragged on em, but they did contribute. Its just a blog, and for the sake of learning, some people need to realise that its not a contest to become King Blog.
I say recon is a no go for this afternoon as this area remains disorganized with no discernible center right now.Should begin moving NE if not already in responce to a cold-front this weeekend.
23,
Do you know of any sites I can get (real-time high res. color photos) of the gulf, off the LA coast? I'm trying to see if I can find the green water and the rip current. Aqua-1 MODIS are always a day old.
See if any of these could help you out.

My Sateliite imagery page
thanks
your site is cool too!
Hi, who knows what will happen with Andrea. She is too fickle. lol. Why can't she just form and hit florida?!?!?!?...that would be great

Check out my blog called Polls/Voting Game; it is fun to join. The last date to enter for a specific poll is May 15th. I'll check back later.

-Justin~
cajunkid i usually use the modis rapid responce system which offers some great images.
Alright, really got to run.

Good points cajun, although lefty was at least a little more reasonable then ST...lol

Anwywho, not sure if you have seen the WAVCIS page. Not even sure if it is what you are looking for. That link can also be found here under the marine data section.

See y'all later
thanks 23

have a good weekend
key west is getting its dose of the smoke. last night it looked very much like fog. its pretty haze right now. not a very good beach day. man, it looks like the bible might be coming true. fires on both side of the us, flooding in the mid west, tornados leveling cities and the cicadas in chicago!! watch out this could be an interesting summer!!!!!!!!!
NAM says that we could have 91L in the Carribean by next week, or perhaps, a new tropical depression.
thanks SJ, I got to go test now

have a good weekend Taz
MODIS images..high resolution images ..La. Link..click to greatly enlarge
LSU modis image page for SE LA. Link
I see that Tampa got hit with the smoke in the last couple of days. Gainesville has been getting choked out for the past two weeks but being a small college town, it isn't getting much press. Depending on the wind the smoke can be barely noticable to really bad. Sometimes the smoke is very high up while other times it is at ground level & looks like fog.

I see that a lot of the smoke has made its way into the Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic Ocean. What is the effect of the smoke on the SST levels? Does it block enough of the sun to limit the heating of the water or prevent the heat from escaping into the atomosphere?

Keep in mind that Hurricane Season doesn't officially begin until June 1st. May & June are usually pretty dead months so we may not see any tropical activity for several more weeks.
Off topic, but wanted to let you know. An entire squad of U.S. soldiers was ambushed. 5 are dead, 2 are missing.
thanks Patrap,

I wish they weren't a day old, but thats prob the best I'm gonna get.

Hey, I got Rocking Dopsie Jr to play my wedding reception next month. Kickass
They update more often come June 1..right now ,..every 48-72 hrs,..
Ill be expecting an invite then..LOL
you bet Patrap
hello evere one i have year to year TCHP maps in my blog for evere one to go see have a good weekend evere one
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

lastest quick scat on the eastern band wind at least 40 kts says over 50 kts the thing with andrea though is it can never seem to hold on to convection will have to wait a see.

quick scat
Wow. Its really starting to look good.

Also

"AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.
"

I hope thats not a sign of things to come.
Thanks for the update and the amazing image Dr. Masters!
We haven't gotten the brunt of the smoke here in Plant City, about 15 miles east of Tampa, but it's really hazy. Looks like low stratus cover in a clear sky.
66. V26R
Resouce Issues mean they can't get anyone to work the OT, which means poor planning on someones part
I don't think so RL3! They probably didn't want to waste the money on a storm that can be easily verified by satalite! Not a big threat either! Supposed to be an active year this year and to waste money on a depression at best is just not wise!
The NHC doesnt seem to like to name storms without being verified by the hunters.
69. Inyo
wildfires don't increase the amount of CO2 in the carbon cycle. Neither do barbecues that someone mentioned in an earlier blog... unless you barbecue with coal which would be disgusting.

The CO2 problem comes from CO2 from underground (oil, etc). That doesn't mean you won't get sick from the smoke, though.
70. MZT
The ghost of Andrea did send up larger thunderstorms today, than we have seen the last few days. Usually they had been a mixture of blue and yellow on the WU infrared. There was quite a bit of orange today.

The "organization" of the low is pretty poor though.
Looks like Andrea could become a tropical depression soon. It looks good on both the satellite and infrared imagery. The only thing with this system is that it has a hard time keeping its convection and this may only be a dunural phase. It current status is an impressive recovery (once again) from its previous state. Although it will not hit the lower 48s i would still like to see this systems potential as it moves of the the ENE.
72. MZT
I think this is the first time all week, that Andrea's bones were not surrounded by a swath of dry brown on the water vapor images.
I am waiting to see what the NHC will say about this system at 2:00 pm EDT
74. IKE
philliesrock posted earlier about the NAM model picking up on action in the western Caribbean in 3-4 days.

The latest GFS puts a 1012mb low off of the southeast coast of Florida in about 6 days. The GFS has been going back and forth on this for the last day or 2. Looks like it's the same moisture source the NAM is picking up on.
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Hmmm....one questtion here. They said it has the potentiol to become a tropical depression. I thought this thing was sub-tropical...any thoughts?
Actually wildfires do increase net CO2 in the atmosphere if they burn trees more rapidly than they grow. The deforestation in Indonesia is rampant and uncontrolled, and makes that country the 3rd largest net emitter of CO2.

When forests turn to grasslands, the amount of CO2 that is held in the ecosystem shrinks dramatically.
77. MZT
We need to see some new cells pop up. Convection seems to be fading again. (That's always the story. She's quite a tease.)
Hmmm....one questtion here. They said it has the potentiol to become a tropical depression. I thought this thing was sub-tropical...any thoughts?

look at the cold clouds tops on the infrared imagery.

Posted By: IKE at 5:33 PM GMT on May 12, 2007.

philliesrock posted earlier about the NAM model picking up on action in the western Caribbean in 3-4 days.

The latest GFS puts a 1012mb low off of the southeast coast of Florida in about 6 days. The GFS has been going back and forth on this for the last day or 2. Looks like it's the same moisture source the NAM is picking up on.

1012 low isn't that impressive, to mention. I haven;t looked at the models yet.


weatherblog - Andrea is now truly tropical. She has a warm-core structure, and the thunderstorm development and appearance support this. If she gets renamed, she will be TROPICAL storm Andrea not subtropical.
80. MZT
1012 low? Ha ha.. Isn't mean sea level pressure around 1014? Oh no! Better board up the windows quickly!!
the thunderstorm are fading just a little bit, if you look at the latest infrared imagery.
does anyone see any fronts that will change the sterring currents for her to go to .?
84. MZT
I doubt they'll upgrade at 2:00. Seems like the NHC is more prone to make changes at the major updates. Maybe at 5:00 if things improve a bit more.
I hate those kidder storms mzt :),but anyway as always new convection bubleing up close to the center. is or me does the front not look as strong and long as yesterday?
Last three images on GOES East looks like storms firing right around center?
Andrea Infraed SAT...LinkLink
1012 low? Ha ha.. Isn't mean sea level pressure around 1014?

You can have a 1020 mb (or even higher) low if it is in the middle of high pressure; lows are relative to the surrounding pressure, which is lower than MSLP near the equator and higher than MSLP in the subtropics (because of the ITCZ and Bermuda High). The true intensity is determined by the pressure gradient, so a 1012 mb low in a 1022 mb environment is the same as a 992 mb low in a 1002 mb environment (this is also why West Pacific storms have lower winds for the same pressure).
Last three images on GOES East looks like storms firing right around center?

Yes it is...will it hold it??
90. MZT
There might be something happening near the center. Melbourne radar is showing a cell.

Melbourne Radar
We shall see. . .
So when are the new model runs how close is suppose to get to bermuda?
A 1005 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST AT 12/1500 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

2:00pm outlook from...NHC

Stubborn She is! Helping us with the fires, She's Not!
95. Inyo
Andrea looks pretty sickly to me.
Andrea is disorganized, but 100% grade-A tropical now. Basically, this is a new storm, forming from a little vorticity left over from the last one.

Which really, really doesn't bode well, as far as I'm concerned. Andrea is showing tenacity much like the late-season '05 storms. Does anyone have a link to the 200mb temps above her?
Forecastercolby you have mail...
Posted By: RL3AO at 12:52 PM EDT on May 12, 2007.

The NHC doesnt seem to like to name storms without being verified by the hunters.


With all due respect RL3AO, depressions don't carry a name! Furthermore, the NHC names storms all the time without flight data. They like to have it but, it is not required.
she really isnt moving mucch right now just hanging out there . is the high above her going to affect where she could be going ?
My thoughts are that if a depression forms out of it, it would be TD01. Since the low center never faded, if it regained enough strength to be reclassified as a Tropical Storm it would still be Andrea but, Tropical Storm Andrea instead of STS Andrea!
102. eye
The first of hopefully many Fish storms
103. FLBoy
There was no threat or reason to fly today or tomorrow. But if Andrea starts aiming at Bermuda or elsewhere we could get a flight Monday:


OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION INTO
ANDREA NEAR 31N AND 70W FOR 14/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS
A THREAT.
If Andrea redevelops and it retained its circulation, it will be called Tropical Depression Andrea, since it was already named. Also, if it was a new system, it would be called Tropical Depression Two, since Andrea is the first numbered system to develop (if you look at the advisories, you will notice the following number at the top - AL012007, meaning the first storm of 2007 in the Atlantic).
OK I can't link it but look at the latest satellite and infrared imagery from goes east:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
well closest buoy to andrea center had the pressure rising up now its going back down agian

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41010&meas=wdpr&uom=E

she will probably peak at 4pm then weaken agian like she did yesterday.
She has definately started her nne movement
Dr. Masters....I have to tell you,that statement is very misleading.I don't know if you just didn't type it up the way you meant to or something like that,but what you wrote is that this pollution episode could kill more than 2000 people,if I read correctly.Maybe I'm wrong,but doesn't that seem just a little unlikely,given that there's been no deaths thus far,and conditions appear as though they will be improving.

weatherboykris - I agree what Dr. Masters said may be a bit overblown, but he only said "potential". If conditions improve soon, then great. But if the smoke persisted for weeks more you could get a higher death rate than normal. A good example is the great London smog of 1952 which was on this blog a few weeks ago. There were 4000 more deaths than would be expected during a certain period, so it was attributed to the smog. During a heatwave how do you know if a person died from heat or another condition aggravated by the heat? Once again, more deaths than average over a given time. In the European heatwave of 2003, which I was in the middle of (northern Italy at the time) there were 38,000 more deaths than usual so they were attributed to the heat. It was terrible. A heatwave in Europe is far worse than in the States as few homes and businesses are air conditioned here. In my bedroon at 10:00 at night it was still 95 degrees. A fan does little good, and small portable ACs, which are electrically inefficient only caused power outages because so many people used them. Anyway I really hope the smoke clears soon in FL as that is bad for anyone!

getting its act together

Visible Floater ..Andrea Link
This one storm has more fight than all of the storms in 2006 put together.
Hi all

Image did not post so here's the link
Looking much better now

Link
Well lets try again. Click to zoom in

Link
thanks kman, I've got two rugrats running around and I couldn't get that to post!!
I don't think she's been this vertically stacked since, well. . .ever! What do you guys think?
she looks pretty good now.... she had a good blowup near her center
Hi Homegirl

I agree. This is the best that this system has ever looked IMO. Nice circular presentation and developing some very cold cloud tops.It also looks as if the " center " is either under or very near that ball of convection that we see.

Andrea has good bands all around
119. RL3AO
So the next depression will be called TD2?
Wouldn't you just know that all that rain is being dumped at sea where it is not needed !
RL3AO

If it regenerates it will still be TD Andrea. As long as the NHC can link the old system to the new in some way they will keep the original designation. In this case there would be no doubt that it is a continuation of what was once Andrea
Oh, i know, what a shame!!
Navy site still has this posted as Andrea.
124. RL3AO
I know that if this redevlops it will be TD Andrea, but I'm talking about the next depression, weather it be next week or in September. Will it be TD 1 or TD 2?
125. ryang
HurricaneRoman you have mail...
The heavy convection associated with the system seems to be dissapting like it did yesterday.
Sorry. TD 2 for the next one
If you look at the latest infrared satellite imagery you can see that the convection is completely gone from the half the system on the west side.
129. ryang
The heavy convection associated with the system seems to be dissapting like it did yesterday.

Yes...it might fire again tonight...
Wow, in just a half hour the ball of convection has expanded noticeably !

( Click on the image to zoom in )

Link
Thanks for clearing that up Michael! I wasn't sure if they would call it TDAndrea or TD01! I realize a new -center-would be TD2 though!

-New system that is!-
If it regenerates it will still be TD Andrea. As long as the NHC can link the old system to the new in some way they will keep the original designation. In this case there would be no doubt that it is a continuation of what was once Andrea

I think the only time one system changes names is if it crosses into another area, such as a system crossing from the Carribean to the Pacific, or crossing the international date line. Am I correct in this?
Didn't post again but are we looking at the same image ?. Looks like it is expanding in coverage to me.
Airman 45

I would have to look that up ( a little rusty since last year ) but I do know that in the Atlantic once a system develops and then gets downgraded to an open wave the NHC will use the same designation if the wave redevelops. The only time this does not happen is if they cannot track the "old" wave into the new system ( such as if it were to merge with another disturbance along the way )
Thanks!
Here is the latest image:

Airman 45

Everything you ever wanted to know about naming ( and renaming ) tropical cyclones including passing from one ocean to another etc.

Link
138. ryang
In that image STL,it now lacks heavy convection,but still has a round shape!!
Michael,

Doesn't look like it is fading away does it ?. If anything the thunderstorms are increasing in coverage
Hey all! how are you all doing
141. ryang
Certainly moving NNE now!!
Thanks kmanislander. Very informative!
143. eye
I believe we had a system in 2005 that died, then redeveloped, but the circulation had completely died so it got another name.
144. ryang
Hello Hank.....i'm good....You??
Hi Stormhank

Ryang, those cloud tops are quite high in the atmosphere and are spreading out with every new frame. I agree that the tops are not up around 65000 feet but from the IR colour I would guess somewhere near 35000 which is not too shabby
Look like the so called remnants of Andrea is now appearing as a full blown warm core minimal tropical storm with a decent outflow and cold cloud tops over what I assume to be the the center of circulation, I'm assuming that Andrea in my personal opinion could develop into a strong tropical storm.
Unbelievable this thing has been toying with us for days now...If classifcation is made it does not seem like a threat to landmass at he moment as models take it out to sea.

Here are the 18z models...

618
WHXX01 KWBC 121858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC SAT MAY 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070512 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070512 1800 070513 0600 070513 1800 070514 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 78.2W 29.7N 77.0W 30.1N 74.4W 29.7N 70.8W
BAMD 29.4N 78.2W 30.6N 76.8W 31.7N 73.2W 32.9N 66.2W
BAMM 29.4N 78.2W 30.2N 77.0W 30.9N 73.6W 31.5N 67.1W
LBAR 29.4N 78.2W 30.4N 76.3W 31.9N 73.3W 33.4N 68.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070514 1800 070515 1800 070516 1800 070517 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 65.9W 27.7N 55.7W 26.7N 52.8W 27.0N 54.6W
BAMD 35.8N 57.3W 45.3N 46.7W 54.1N 36.6W 59.9N 14.6W
BAMM 33.5N 57.7W 41.9N 45.3W 49.7N 40.5W 58.1N 34.9W
LBAR 35.4N 61.7W 42.4N 49.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS
DSHP 49KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.4N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 41DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 28.5N LONM24 = 79.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
148. eye
not gonna happen, SSTs are going down, once she exits the GS, she will quickly become extra tropical.....so, extra tropical, subtropical, tropical and back again.....
Stormpetrol

Andrea has been quite tenacious. Nothing would surprise me but water temps and a resurgence of shear may prevent that
I concur w/stormpetrol except not going to develop much stronger than TD or weak TS.
The convection is pretty strong, considering that it is over rather cool water (warmer water can fuel stronger convection and colder tops). I remember that the convection in Vince, Epsilon, and Zeta was similar in intensity.
eye, that was Katrina. It was originally TD 10 (I believe), which dissipated, and redeveloped as TD 11
CURRENT SAT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFCATION TO T.D.STATUS WITHIN 6 HRS
Right now shear is low half way to Bermuda from the current position

Link
Here's an infrared shot showing convection has indeed increased over the COC.

ggg
Caneaddict See my earleir post re naming. They mentioned Katrina in the Wiki article
Remember Alex from 2004 became a major hurricane in the North Atlantic actually over cooler waters, just saw Dr.Lyons from TWC yesterday saying that warm water is not necessarily that strong of a factor in the strength of a tropical cyclone.
Very symmetrical storm now with banding and cooler clouds tops. Maybe back to TD status already?
Stormpetrol

It can certainly happen thats for sure
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.

Now we are seeing the first effects of the government's lack of funding for the National Hurricane Center.
Yeah Adrian...it's sad.
Congress wants to close its eyes and pretend what NOAA has is sufficient...but it isn't,and it will eventually become painfully obvious.
Over all the NHC has a limited budget for recon flights each year and while this storm is an oddity and interesting in its own right there will be much more severe and life-threatening systems that need recon later in the season compared to the remnants of Andrea.

Another flight is already scheduled for tommorow if need be.


It looks as if the center is on the Southern side of the ball of convection. You can see two long feeders that meet in that area.

If this pic blows the margins I will edit
Not having much luck with images this afternoon. Someone else try the GH site for the 19:15 vis image
Does " resource issues " include mechanical problems or would they say mechanical if that was the situation ?
Since the United States of America can't afford to send a plane out today (other than those we have budgeted for desert patrols), I'm thinking of chartering a twin-engine out of Pensacola to go check it out. Does anyone have access to a couple of dropsondes?
Also this system even if it does develope it does not appear to be a threat to landmass and in 48 hrs or less it will merge with a baroclinic low forming off to the North.
Thanks Michael

We can see the two feeders I was referring to where they converge on the S side of the system
Well its 94F outside my home today and the pool is 90.

Does not bode well for the months to come
172. FLBoy
Maybe I misread this POD. I thought it says no flight today or Sunday but a possible flight on Monday May 14:


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 12 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z MAY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION INTO
ANDREA NEAR 31N AND 70W FOR 14/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS
A THREAT.
Water temps in the west central Caribbean are already near 85F


Link
well off to catch the TPC now

bbl
Theres a 50/50 shot the NHC will call this a TD sometime this evening cause if there going to do so they better go ahead cause the window is definately closeing.
Day late and a dollar short! Why could this not have happened yesterday when it was closer to land! Seems to be the luck this year! Amazing stories out of Tampa! Betcha cigarette sales are down this week! Feel very bad for those people! Theres a little smoke over here on the East Side but, not nearly to that severity.
177. MZT
By golly, it looks like real outflow is happening now. High clouds are obscuring the low level circulation that we've been watching for days.
Water temp on buoy 20 NM east of Cape Canaveral is over 80 degrees. Obviously, this storm's over cooler waters, but latitude is the same. I sure seems to like where it's at!
Afternoon all

So she thinks she wants her name back huh? wait til 8:00 tonight and I will believe it. She is also venturing in to fairly cool water now it appears.

Looks kinda smokey in the Bahamas today...
From Punta Gorda Florida

OS AIR TEMP 86
POOL TEMP 80
SCREWDRIVER TEMP 38

From Indianapolis Indiana
INDY 500 TRACK TEMP 123
Afternoon TCW...I still can not get over the pics and reports from areas like Tampa that are smoked in...Unreal.

Closer to 32 on the screwdriver JC. Not going to freeze, and it kinda cools the whole body down ☺
182. MZT
I'm not at the point of being willing to bet on it... but I think a TD reclassification by 5:00 looks like it will be justifiable.
Parents in Homosassa Springs, north of Tampa, have been holed up inside for two days because of smoke. Better this morning, but new "puff" headed that way now. Parts of I-10 closed.
184. MZT
I guess Andrea is not a smoker. Huh, huh! Huh huh! :-) Ok I'll shut up and go back to blob watching...
Afternoon SJ! That would drive me insane! My throat gets inflamed when I am around campfires, I coulden't imagine that, I would have to live in a bubble!
LOL MZT! She has one heck of a contact buzz then.
hey pensacola -I have a couple gi joe action figures with parachutes we can throw in to it from the plane lol
Huh? What is that blob east of Andrea and SW of Bermuda? It's in a comma shape...If someone can please explain what that is, it'll answer a lot of questions. Thanks.Link

Also, if you guys can, check out my blog called Polls/Voting Game. It something fun to enter, especially when you're bored. It is very fun to play and see who will win.

-Justin~
Man, it's actually getting a little bit dark out from the smoke cover.

If this latest burst sustains, I can't imagine Andrea not getting a re-upgrade later.
190. MZT
Interesting. If she can re-form overnight, she might become strong enough to merit a "real" tropical storm warning tomorrow on the outer banks of Hatteras.
Afternoon all!! why didnt Andrea get her name back last night? Did the convection not sustain itself?
Now we are seeing the first effects of the government's lack of funding for the National Hurricane Center.

How true! Unfortunately alot of programs and federal jobs were cut or eliminated in the last few years. I cant believe the U.S. government would cut something like NHC funding. War funding seems to have priority over everything. I should know, being in the military!
No i did not.
Seems to be fading again! Still pulling in Dry Air from the North!
NHC is looking for persistence which and i will tell you if reclassification does occur it should happen within the hour or a tad later.
Hurricane Hunter
Thanks for the help, JustCoasting. It's a new breed of Hurricane Hunter!
197. MZT
That knot of dry air isn't anything like being completely surrounded by it, as was the case 2 days ago.
Major Thunderstorm with embedded hail with gust front microburst on radar too...Link
too bad she wont nudge a little closer to Fla. so they can get some much needed rain over the wildfire areas.....
A closer view..its right on Interstate-10 Link
201. FLBoy
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.



Resource issues runs a whole gamut of items including and not directly anyone of these:

Human issues.....maybe the crew showed up drunk or they all ate bad fish last night.

Maybe the plane had a flat tire or a seagull hit and bent a prop.

Maybe the money is better reserved for a serious threat.
Radar picking up the causeway Bridge across Lake Ponchrtrain too..Link
how much would you say one of those flights cost?
205. MZT
About to lose Andrea from Melbourne radar now. Intensity seems to be creeping down. We need a new cell to blow up.

Melbourne radar
how much would you say one of those flights cost?

That is a good question for Dr. Masters, seeing as he has been on the flights.
I am venturing a guess to say alot of the returns your seeing below the storm are smoke returns! Air is dry as a bone down here!

Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: 72 F / 22 C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.85 in / 1010.7 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 95 F / 35 C
Visibility: 5.0 miles / 8.0 kilometers
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Few 4500 ft / 1371 m

(Above Ground Level)
MZT, I'm not sure the intensity is creeping down. The radar returns weaken with distance, and this cell will fade as it reaches the limits of Melobourne's Doppler.
Closer view from MSFC....

FFF
210. FLBoy
NOW...
THROUGH 530 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTIES. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT COULD
PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN LOCAL SPOTS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST OSCEOLA
AND NORTHEAST OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE GENERATED BY THE KISSIMMEE LAKE CHAIN.



Keesler AFB Hurricane Hunters..with Links..Link
seems like there are two more a bit further west, may they create one monster all together?
how are the jet's in this area
Lets stick to the matter at hand - Andrea etc. instead of attacking Bush......
Posted By: Bamatracker at 8:20 PM GMT on May 12, 2007.
how much would you say one of those flights cost?


Enough to last me for 5 to 10 years maybe...

Afternoon y'all. I see Andrea is still trying...
Can someone please tell me what's that blob a bit to the right of Andrea..it seems to be spinning.

Also there is anther blob south of Andrea and east of the Bahamas. Just wondering if those are something to watch or has potential to develop.

Another thing; please come and check out my blog called Polls/Voting game. The more people that enter, the better. The deadline is May 15th. Thanks.

-Justin~
217. FLBoy
OK....please bring on the rain to south Florida.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ONE
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ORTONA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PALMDALE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE OTHER STORM
WAS LOCATE JUST EAST OF LAKEPORT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH.

* THE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
ORTONA
MOORE HAVEN

218. ryang
FLBoy you have mail...
weatherblog, those other two blobs are just a couple of garden variety thunderstorm clusters. Their cold pools have pushed out some good outflow boundaries. They are nothing to watch at all.
Hi, all... nice to see Andrea still fighting to be something. I wish it could've brought all you guys the rain you needed, but there's something about the way it wouldn't die that spoke to me... what can I say?

But the smoke and fires *are* horrible. I have a friend in Tampa who went outside yesterday and the smoke was so thick he said he thought some building near him must have been on fire. That's bad! Much like Dr. Master's pic of Florida, did any of you see this...?

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=14240

Nasty... :-(

Looks like some rain heading south from the front through the Carolina's, though, so hopefully that will help. Good luck, all!

Jo
all I hope is that andrea somehow figures out how to give south florida a clear non smoky sky as well as some much needed rain.
222. MZT
I think it's time to forget about Andrea affecting Florida. It might brush the outer banks of the Carolinas or become a nor'easter later this week, though. Maybe some other system will blow out the smoke.
heh the remnants of Andrea are tiring to monitor. Now the system has a core of thunderstorm right of the COC, which could make it a tropical depression at 8pm if it sustains the convection or increase around the outer edges. Its still a relatively compact system.
mzt it looks like California here on their worst smoggiest day
I remember yesterday around this time there was hardly any convection associated with the system. With the thunderstorm activity right of the center of circulation, this may be the remnants of Andrea's last chance to get its act together before i move north into unfavorable SST.
Did someone say the smoke was headed back toward Tampa??? Please NO!

I thought Tuesday was bad but yesterday was unbearable. There was ash all over and it did smell like your own house was on fire. Some government offices closed down, outdoor activities were cancelled and portions of highways were closed. Today is much better - just hazy - but having had to do a fitness event for charity outside today, you could tell the quality of the air was just not right.

Please let there be rain!
227. MZT
Not as much convection now as there was between 2:00-430est. There may be a small cloudburst at 29.4N 75W, and it looks like there's still something going on in the SE quadrant of the Andrea low.

Right now I think the NHC will wait to see if it strengthens overnight, and maybe re-name it tomorrow morning. It's not headed toward land, so there's no rush.
yes there is a cell in that SE quadrant. But the remnants have already gone thourgh this before. seems it has a tough time keep the convection. Note: the convection is right of the COC.
rain coming to se noa fires out soon front dropping down se ward over nc sc ga with ull tracking eastward gom thought fla rem of andrea offshore lots of action starting to happen in se will be interesting couple of hrs
heh there it goes again. Looking at the latest IR image at 5:15 the heavy convection is starting to taper of.
231. FLBoy
.NOW...
A SMALL BUT VERY INTENSE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH 7 PM. THIS AREA OF STORMS...LOCATED OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AT 530 PM...APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF RURAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
THROUGH 7 PM. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
INCLUDING CLEWISTON...LIBERTY POINT AND PAHOKEE...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS...QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...AND LIKELY A WATERSPOUT.
THIS STORM WAS OVER CLEWISTON AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS WATERSPOUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREA.

Sorry Tampagirl! Tampa tops the maps today for Unhealty Air


Evenin all.....

Seems like Andrea is still being sheared a little...

Wonder if Andrea could threaten Bermuda??
234. MZT
Maybe a small band forming at 28.7N 78.4W?
235. MZT
This may be one occasion where light shear is helpful. It blows clean ocean air towards the circulation, so it isn't sitting in the dry smoky stuff.
its a ts now??
its a ts now??
Thanks CaneWhisperer - I guess that big red unhealthy circle sitting right on top of Tampa should have been an indication that I should not have engaged in strenous activity outdoors for several hours today. Hmm...I wonder why my lungs hurt...maybe I should go smoke a cigarette now, how much more damage could I possibly do? ;-)
239. MZT
Well I guess by "Andrea Standards" this is the best it's ever looked at 6 in the evening. But I don't feel like following it all the way to the 8PM advisory. Maybe I'll tune in at 11.
241. ryang
MZT you have mail...
HaHa Tampagirl! I am a smoker also, and commented earlier that cigarette sales would probably be down this week in Tampa!
243. MZT
Final comment for a while. Looks like there is a new cell at 29.9n 76.3w, so at least there will be something going on for a few more hours.

The overall outline of the storm is vaguely comma-shaped. (Notice the two small bands hooking down towards the south.) I don't think we need "much more" to upgrade it to a TD.


Comma shape?

Anyone have any comment what that odd frontal-looking structure is in the upper right?
"Andrea looks to have a good bit of convection so I think the NHC should upgrade it to a subtropical depression. IT may become that but obviously will not be an issue to any US land interests"

This is a quote from here: Link
This thing might raise from the dead (all us christians might call it Subtropical Storm Lazarus). lol
Anyone have any comment what that odd frontal-looking structure is in the upper right?

The frontal-looking structure isn't actually fronta at all. That is cumulus clouds forming along an outflow boundry from thunderstorms that have dissipated from Andrea.
Andrea doesn't look impressive to me to be given tropical depression status. It had much more convection and the COC 2 hours ago. Now there is just one notable cell north of the COC.
jjjhhheeesssssssh
I still think Andrea is a TD, maybe NHC is waiting for a bit more organization. More thoughts here:

Hurricane Warning
down below andrea is what appears to be the front that started all of this. There is some convection blowing up just off of it. any chance on a development on that stuff?
when is the next recon flight going in, any chance of getting at least that information out?
254. FLBoy
Next recon not until Monday....maybe:


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION INTO
ANDREA NEAR 31N AND 70W FOR 14/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS
A THREAT.
It might not fly out if Andrea isn't a threat to the US.
256. FLBoy
What does this say??


IF SYSTEM IS
A THREAT.



If it is a threat to Bermuda I'm sure it will happen.
It would appear that andrea is folowing the same general path as the storms last year.... out to sea. We could really use a good TS here in Florida this state is a tender box.

Steve
258. FLBoy
8:05:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST AT 12/2100 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 75W-77W.
I wanna see what the NHC says at 8:00 pm. It could easily loose the little convection it has as fast as it got it.
And just when i though andrea had thrown in towl it has arise what a Amazing storm !!!!
If i can steal the words of the commissary automatated grocery line guy..."NEXT PLEASE"...
The constant flaring up in the day and down at night to an almost neglagable level does not seem to indicate a Tropical Depression level. Andrea seems to be holding on by the skin of her teeth.

Maybe if she could hold the convection throughout the night she could turn into a TD.
"This thing may get it's act together... I expect a TD by tomorrow."

That's a quote from here: Link
hmm well it is hanging on to that little area of heavy convection it has.


Andrea better run.... there is a monster chasing her! LOL
000
WONT41 KNHC 130054
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING...AND
IS CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND A CONTINUED MOTION AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
i think andrea is getting her act together again. she looks better organized near her center than any other time.

i wonder if andrea and the ULL will merge and form a strong extratropical storm out there in atlantic
From what I've seen of Andrea she is amazing, everytime she's fading fast here she comes back and goes a different direction to boot. She might not become anything big but she surely has been a learning experience for me at least, as well as providing hours of viewing pleasure. LOL
This is SOOOOOOO very different from last year it's scary.
My prediction for Andrea? None, but she surely has proven the old saying "it's a womans prerogative to change her mind!!
Adding to the toll from Andrea:
The winds Thursday caused Osprey PooP to land all over my truck. Oh, the humanity!
Does anyone think we could have a TD by the 11PM advisory?

Some people here seem to think so: Link
Andrea did millions of dollars in damage to the beaches
Hey HR u comin to chat
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 1:40 AM GMT on May 13, 2007.
Andrea did millions of dollars in damage to the beaches
I believe you're right. I am going tomorrow to check it out.
I think this is a bit to much to do about not much of nothing. Still back lash from the days of Katrina and Rita. Hardly a thunder storm this thing, and folks go ga, ga.
GOM SST's Link
It looks a tad bit more organized right now...11PM advisory will be interesting.

Discussion here also: Link
Hello. I have been lurking on this blog for a few years, but I just decided to join.

Andrea (and her former, extratropical self) have been toying with us for almost a week now. She just will not give up! Her newest burst of convection has continued to flair, and because of this the NWS might rename her. However, her time to live is almost up. By Monday, she will merge with the incoming front, possibly becoming extratropicl again.

I think that the determining factor will be Andrea's speed. If she slows down and remains over the gulf stream, I would give her a decent chance to Become a TD. Otherwise, a combination of cooler SST's and higher shear caused by the front will rip her to pieces.

I predict she will survive long enough to become a TD, but will quickly become extratropical.
Hello anyone awake in here???? LOL.
283. FLBoy
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENE OF THE
CENTER WITHIN 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 30N75W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY ENE AND A
CONTINUED MOTION AWAY FROM THE SE US IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
hello
hey bro u here
On the unreliable and probably non relevant GFS mid/long term there seems to be some tropically formed storms approaching the East coast starting up around the 18th. I know its too far out and the GFS is whacked then BUT its not as hop-skippy I mean there seems to be good day to day agreement with development in roughly the Hispaniola area for a couple of systems.
why you say the GFS is unreliable humm if that is so then what are you doing bother even looking at it humm hehe he hehe he ooh me
i ;ike the GFS model or could you tell he he anyway .not necesarely accurate but it hints to what is to come and as far a as a model goes that is good enough in comparrison to other models it is fine .they all flip flop and get it wrong but they all hint as well if we were to combine the models then i htink that we would still only have 30 percent accuracy but i have seen the GFS hit is dead on 16 days out so it cant be all wrong he he
have a good one . Dew
probably the same system meandering around lol
GFS is quite accurate, but we're talking weeks out. No model is accurate at that timeframe.
Interesting stuff from the GFS this morning but cant be taken to seriously as its very long-range and will probably change in the next run.But one thing to make note the GFS has indeed been indicateing some kind of development in the caribbean for a while now and basically taken it north.Overall the time of year is fast approaching so we'll see what happens.

(348hrs)

fff

(360hrs)

ggg

(384hrs)

fff
GFS> Generating Fabricated Storms
Also wanted to spread the word of the new website hosted by bryan norcross and max mayfield its set to by announced at the NHC conference this week.

You cant go wrong with Max and Bryan to of the best.

Prominent forecasters launch 1-stop storm help on Web.

Two of the nation's most prominent hurricane forecasters are launching a new crusade to help Americans deal with storms and other disasters -- and they hope to enlist recruits during this week's major hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale.

''This may be the most important thing I've ever done,'' said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

He and television forecaster Bryan Norcross are developing an Internet clearinghouse for preparedness and post-disaster advisories issued by government emergency managers in South Florida and around the nation.

More Here
Andrea is gone and smoke still lingers....sigh.
295. FLBoy
This is a great outlook:




LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
THIS BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE
WITH HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS BY AFTERNOON.
The atmospheric pattern is begining to change. Fewer and fewer troughs are digging into the S. Atlantic. Soon there will be none, and the International Convergence zone will become the dominent player in the atlantic.
Man that blob moving off of Columbia looks angry.
298. MZT
The NHC may decide to rebadge Andrea as a depression in the post-season analysis. It's not all that important a distinction, and they may not want Weather Channel and the public to get too worked up over a "restrengthening" Andrea.

We *DO* know from experience (1993) that the NHC deliberately avoids naming systems sometimes.

What's out there isn't much, but it looks about as good a system as the "unnamed" one they identified at the end of 2006.
I see what you mean MTZ. However I believe that they have criteia to follow for naming systems and if it should be named, they would name it. They do not care what the media says. If it should remain un named they won't
"Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy."
- BILL PROENZA, DIRECTOR
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

This year Hurricane Preparedness Week is May 20-26, 2007
Time is near! 1 Checked off the board already! 386 time frame seems about reasonable, or at least, more believeable givin the atmosphereic trends. We all know SST's aren't a problem in the Caribbean right now.

Morning all, cough, COUGH! Morning cup O' Joe is just not as enjoyable with smoke filled air!
Sorry I ment MZT
That blob in the SW carib looks interesting
The 10day GFSx....and the Blip Link
Andrea is dead now, the shear got it last night. Before it got sheared, it looked impressive.

Time to wait for the real season :)
Time to stick a fork in Andrea. Now time to watch the Caribbean for development.

Link
HEllO TURTLE and GUY
Hey guys. You guys are right-- time to watch the caribbean. dun dun duhn! lol

We should keep an eye on the caribbean, even though there is no invests there. But since the time of year is coming round for caribbean development, we should keep a watchful eye.

Anyways, check out my blog called Polls/Voting Game. The question is: Do you think there will be any named storms this May?...please enter and answer. Cut-off date is May 15th. Thanks.

-Justin~
309. IKE
The question is: Do you think there will be any named storms this May?...please enter and answer. Cut-off date is May 15th.

There already has been!
Posted By: IKE at 3:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2007.

The question is: Do you think there will be any named storms this May?...please enter and answer. Cut-off date is May 15th.

There already has been!


Ooops. Said the question wrong. This is it: Do you think there will be any more named storms this May?

lol..
u mean more named storms. Yes barry by may 17
312. IKE
The way this pattern is...looking at computer models...I'll say yes too. The last 10 days of May.

Looking at that blob heading NW off of South America...it might be sooner!
like 17th IKE? LOL
OMG..Its a Depression and its heading WEST! 0
Probably at least one more depression in May.
316. jride
excuse me, as it's my first time on...

Any info. on these two systems on GFS these next two weeks? One (ITCZ - Central America) shows to hit SW Florida near 28 May 07.... after the one near Leeward works it way towards New England (next week)...

Where can I go to find more models?

Thanks...
What if we run out of names before the season STARTS
All the tropical models can be found ..or links to them on the tropical page of the wunderground near the bottom...Link
Welcome jride!!
320. RL3AO
I was a little surprised the NHC didn't re-initiate it as a depression yesterday, but it doesnt matter.
What if we run out of names before the season STARTS

rofl. That'll be the day...