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Andrea's remains head out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:10 PM GMT on May 13, 2007

After lingering by the coast of Florida and almost reaching tropical depression status the past two days, Andrea has finally gotten caught up in a west-to-east moving trough of low pressure, and gotten swept out to sea. Andrea's remains could bring tropical storm force winds to Bermuda Monday morning. Here is the latest thing NHC had to say about the storm:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 445 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA. THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE NIGHT...AND THE LOW IS NOW MOVING OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from May 13, 2007, showing the remains of Andrea moving out to sea (upper right corner), and some residual smoke over the Gulf of Mexico from Florida's Bugaboo fire.

Andrea's departure is welcome news to most of Florida, as winds over the Bugaboo fire region have calmed down considerably with the storm's departure. Lighter winds have kept the smoke from the fire near its source, forcing the closure of a 35-mile stretch of I-75 and a portion of I-10 in northern Florida. Air pollution levels are still dangerous to vulnerable people in much of Florida, but have improved greatly over Friday's record-breaking levels.

Have a great Mother's Day, all you moms!
Jeff Masters
Smokey Sun
Smokey Sun
This picture was taken in Auburndale Florida. We have been dealing with the smoke from the Fires up to our North. This is a smoke going over the Sun. Taken at Approx. 7:00 p.m.
Okefenokee Fire
Okefenokee Fire
Okefenokee wildfire from the east

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I see lots of shear on Pat's link.
Rain on Bourbon Street Link
Guess what happens in a couple of hours.....PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON STARTS! WOOT! =]
Iam looking for a more quieter season in the pacific this time around with the atlantic being more active.
505. FLBoy
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007


THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 48-60
HRS...WHICH IT THEN SHOWS LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA BY 72-84
HRS. THE ECMWF COMPLETELY DIVERGE FROM THIS SOLUTION...INSTEAD
SUSTAINING AN OPEN INVERTED TROUGH. EVALUATION OF THE VELOCITY
POTENTIAL ANOMALIES...AS AN INDICATOR OF THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION... SHOWS AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC-WESTERN AFRICA...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
SIGNATURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/CARIBBEAN OR MEXICO. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE GFS MODEL MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON ITS DEVELOPMENT OF
A CLOSED CYCLONE...AND THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION MIGHT BE MORE
APPROPRIATE UNDER THE CURRENT DYNAMICS.
506. Rodek
Hellsniper,

I too am in FWB. I've often wondered the same thing. Rain seems to fizzle as it gets to our area. I'm thinking that the sea breeze has something to do with it as well. I've also heard stories of a high pressure or "hot spot" being over us. Anyone know the right answer?
evening all! Whens that low supposed to develop off of the Yucatan?
June 5. LOL
wow... wouldnt that be amazing..if we had another may storm... has it happened b4??
nevermind,,, i read through the blog and its never happened...anyways.. i got no rain today
-.-!!!!!!!!!!!! and im in south broward...
got no rain here either but alow will form by the bahamas this week and will bring alot of rain to se fla. we shall see
514. 0741
i would like to see storm form in carribbean before we talk about low in carribbean it still little dry down their
Ohh me hello
516. 0741
their weak low what i can tell in western carribbean but no storm round it let see if that model picking up
I surely do hope and pray that FL gets plenty of rain relief (without more danger) to all the fire problems.

Today, we in central MS, got some of the effects. Smoke from the FL fires that were once swept down into the Gulf, were re-circed into Alabama and Mississippi.

It was significant and really made me think of how compounded it has been in FL.

They need a Seminole wind, but with lots of rain, too! Hopefully maybe, this will be the year of tropical storms, without destruction; but, helping end drought conditions!
518. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

GFS IS NOW RECEIVING SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES IN
REGARDS TO LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS CUBA AND EXTENDING IT
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW
SPINNING UP OUT OF THE CARIB THU BUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS
FEATURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WRT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CUBA BTWN 12Z
THU AND 00Z FRI...NAM MODEL IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPS THE H85-H70 CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL..


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING SFC
CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH-EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEK.
WHETHER THE ACTUAL LOW IS OVER CUBA...AS THE GFS PREDICTS...OR WELL
NE PER THE NAM...AN ELONGATED N-S ZONE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PENINSULA BENEATH WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW.
519. FLBoy
All kinds of interesting features to discuss today:


PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 VALID 12Z SAT MAY 19 2007 - 12Z TUE MAY 22 2007
USED 00Z ECMWF FOR EARLY PRELIM FRONTS AND PRESSURES. THIS MODEL HAS LEAD THE WAY INTO THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE US...SHOWING THE MOST CONSISTENCY OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. CURRENT RUN AFFORDS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND THE SLOW UKMET WITH PROGRESSION OF E COAST VORTEX D5-6. EVERY MODEL TRIES TO INCORPORATE SOME SUBTROPICAL ENERGY INTO ERN SYSTEM...USING IT TO SPIN UP DEEP SFC CYCLONE OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS INFUSION IS DICEY...AND MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW AMPLIFIED TROF BECOMES EARLY IN THE PD. IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY EARLY...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MAIN BAND OF WLYS...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION WOULD BE MAXIMIZED...ALLOWING ENTIRE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
Thunderstorm over New Orleans Yesterday..7
wow fl boy....weather is acting up today......wanted to ask you....i noticed your first post on here was a willy gary link.......you from that area?
No updates since Sunday? What gives?

Anything interesting I should know about? We got a little rain down here last night, but we could use more.
That bolt hit the superdome
524. IKE
He'll probably have an update today.

The NAM and GFS both try and spin a low up east or SE of Florida....by the end of the week.
hey i have dark clouds here in palm beach FL. could that mean rain?? hopefully
CPC global hazards assessment for week 1:


Look at #2.
The 10 day GFSx..Link
hey rodek-the same thing happens in key west with the rain. numerous time i have witness huge red and yellow blobs coming toward key west, only to have them fizzle when they get here and reform after they leave. i have always wondered why. thanks for your insite-it makes perfect sense!
great link for the dust canewhisperer! thanks a bunch. peace todd
529. IKE
And if something does form east or SE of Florida and is named the "B" storm..which I think is Barry...when was the last time there were 2 named storms in May?

And what does that say about the upcoming season?

I notice the GFS model is a lot more active with lows then it was last year throughout almost the entire season. May mean nothing, then again it might be telling everyone something about the 2007 hurricane season.
Good morning everyone.
There never were 2 named storms in May, but 1887 had two storms in May (plus two in December and 19-23 total storms, pending reanalysis).
532. IKE
Good morning from the smoky...stinky smelling Florida panhandle...where it's so dry I'm mowing dirt.

Only chance of rain is the cold front coming thru Wednesday...it is sooo dry up here.......
533. IKE
Thanks for the information.

I think it does mean the season is likely to be active............
ike, Im getting rain in SE fl
HG I don't think IKE wants to know the location of the rain!
536. IKE
Crestview, Fl...which is 25 miles west of me....

1/100th of an inch...for the month! And that was from drizzle one morning from fog almost 2 weeks ago. If this cold front doesn't bring rain...there's no chance for another 5 to 7 days after that.
ok splash, i dont think he wants to either, srry Ike.
Morning all
Anyone know the record for the most named storms at once?
Ok Now I am Interested! NoGaps on board now!


Right in line with the ECMWF!

Select NA View in the ECMWF drop down and Click the 850T/SLP Loop in the left toolbar.

Morning Everyone! BRING THE RAIN! North Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie and Okeechobee recieved quite a soaker last night!
540. IKE
It's okay...glad it rained where you're at.
Thank you Ike
Could be an interesting end to the week in the Carribbean. Let's see if the models stay consistent or if they back off like we saw so much of last season.
Thank you for reporting on the Fires here in Florida. Without those winds off the coast we have finally started getting some good soaking rain here in central and northern Florida. Ashes from the fire fell on cars all week. Even down in Tampa which was very poinient.
The Climate Change Conference in Tampa late last week was VERY COOL! And even generated recomendations to the Florida legislature.
morning everyone!
'Morning 07, hello everyone.
It already has more convection then andrea LOL
Nothing, nothing and uhhh I forgot...nothing.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Every cyclone in history has had more convection then andrea, LOL
hey guys dream on did you see the conditions down there right now ...the sst are to low and the shear is still in the area...in my opinion their will not be 2 storms in may...if you want to get technical andrea should have never been named in the first place...that all had to do with politics...andrea was something that happens everytime around april and may..a subtropical system which never had tropical characteristics to begin with...andrea was spread out all over the place..the NHC made a huge area in naming just a rain event..it was nothing more then what we experience in the summertime a heavy thunderstorm...StormKat
new blog up
yes i am ...the shear down there is expected to pick up with a upper level low forming just to the east of the yucatan in 24 hours and that will kill all hopes of tropical activity...i told you guys dont go by the computers you should of learned your lesson last year....
the data i have looked at and its a 30 day outlook i can see the shear slacking up and something could form in the nw caribbean sea in the middle of june...thats the time to start watching for something to really develop just a little food for thought...i will let you know if anything changes before then.......
JERRY FARWELL DIES AGE 73
559. spir
nice