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Andrea not dead yet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on May 11, 2007

NHC declared Andrea dead last night, but thunderstorm activity has flared up again on the storm's southeast side this morning, and Andrea may be making a comeback. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low until Sunday. Current radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows a marked increase in rainbands along the southeast side of the low, and recent infrared satellite loops show a burst of thunderstorms with cloud tops developing there. Buoy 41009 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral has not shown much change in winds today, which have been running 23-28 mph. This morning's 7:29am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed top winds in the 30-35 mph range--tropical depression strength. If the storm had had its current presentation at 11pm last night, NHC would have kept it as a subtropical depression. However, the more organized appearance may just be a transitory burst, and the storm will have to continue to improve in appearance until late this afternoon in order to regain her name. That's not going to be easy, given that water vapor loops show some very dry air around the remnants of Andrea, and sea surface temperatures are still a rather cool 24-26 C. I give Andrea a 30% chance of regaining her name over the next 24 hours.

Andrea's remains continue to drift south at about 5 mph, but most of the models show it stalling by Saturday, then getting swept out to sea on Sunday. So it appears now that even if Andrea does make a comeback, it will not bring Florida much in the way of needed rainfall. Bermuda may encounter some gale force winds early next week when the remnants of Andrea interact with an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to develop between Bermuda and the U.S. coast.

NHC had this to say about Andrea's remnants at 3pm today:

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT IT LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image at 7:15 GMT Friday May 11 2007.

Interesting infrared satellite image
This morning's 7:15 GMT infrared satellite image of Florida (Figure 1) shows an interesting feature--the fires burning along the Georgia/Florida border. These fires are so hot that they are visible on the infrared satellite image. Infrared satellite images are a map of heat energy emitted, and where the hot fires are burning, we see black pixels. The high, cold cloud tops of the thunderstorms surrounding the remnants of Subtropical Depression Andrea show up white.

Other blogs
The View From the Surface blog shows a nice satellite animation of yesterday's Florida/Georgia fires, and Mike Theiss has posted more photos of his chases in Tornado Alley during last week's incredible severe weather outbreak.

My next update will depend on the weather--
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good afternoon, everyone. And I thought Andrea was dead. . . Her remains appear to be moving northwest, almost parallel to the coast (but then again my eyesight isn't that great xD).
Jedkins if u know where the center is tell us
Posted By: Jedkins at 9:10 PM GMT on May 11, 2007.

Ya you're right we do agree on something! But of course, I think everyone is in agreement on this one LOL.

If you can place the center where you have it 23, I'm afraid you should seek mental treatment...

lol


be nice. there may be 2 lows. The system seems to be trying to get organized but it is still fairly disorganized regardless of the noted convection. That is only half the system. 1/2 of the swirl is naked. I am quite impressed with its recovery seeing as though it was almost down to nothing a few hours ago.I guess the dunural effect along with the Gulf stream temperature have help this system to try to get organized.
thelmores...
read it...they want to cut down on CO2...and they are policing with HELICOPTERS! Are these fuel cell helicopters??? LOL
I can honestly say I'm quite stunned. Go Andrea go!
23.......

throw away that fancy weather proggy you have..... it is not serving you well! ;)
well said
509. ryang
negative Taz...... will still be Andrea..... besides, it may be a busy year, we need to conserve names! LOL

LOL... We don't need names from greek.
hey ric.....

I had a similar comment ready and deleted for fear of being to harsh....

that IS your job! LOL
a belgian that agrees with me?????

PLEASE post that on my blog! LOL

I was actually asking whether that region is really going to tax BBQ and enforce with helicopters.
It is here chess.
if there aren't two low the Andrea is picking up some miraculous speed in her atempt to get organized.
there may be 2 lows


there might be 3...thre might be 4....there might..but..there's 1..and the center is not plotted correctly in that graph.....it's ok though....give the blog time..and it won't be near this nice
LOL... We don't need names from greek.

A good way to remember the Greek alphabet, though. ;-)
The center is exaclty where it appears, its the most obvious thing, this thing doesn't even have an upper level circulation, it might be trying to develop one, but its still a shallow remnant surface low.

Its the most obvious thing, the high clouds left over from bursts of storms througout the day have absolutely no movement to them at all, there is only some weak outflow(which is impressive I might add), but outflow eould be veltilation for the low and rotates counter clockwise.

You can look at radar, or a NWS isobar/wind map, and it will give you extactly where the center appears to be on radar.
man.... still at work, I need a brewski, and join the party!

besides, I forecast better with my beer goggles on! LOL
LOL......thel......i'm having a brain pain...what was the .com site where the guy would post the hurricane hunter plots and data on the google earth map?
Gosh darnit Junkie its getting better by the minute.....That is rapid intensification in 15 minutes if ive ever seen it......lol

The center has more T-Storms around it then ever before......


common guys give 23 a break everyone makes mistakes and the center is not in the middle of the convection it is a little to the side but i still agree that 23 was a little ways off
As I am not well versed on steering currents and shear issues, I pose the following question; What "could" happen with Andrea, in terms of possible movement, if the front forcast to push her out to sea by Sunday weakens?.........
Hey if we arent careful we might see a center completely outlined with convection....wouldnt that wake some people up.......
SJ i know where the center is thanks anyway though I was just asking Jed to show because he was talking to much.
Taz why do u keep posting those images?
Again....be nice.....everyone....have fun....
chessrascal, go learn some more, and you'll soon agree with me, theres one weak center, with maybe 1 or 2 weak spin - up vorticies, the center could relocate, but it remains where it appears, this is a SHALLOW remnant low guys not 50 mph dis-organized tropical storm that actually has complete vertical development, therefore, its center is obvious.
chessrascal hello
apocalyps2:

pardon me for being rude...it is not my intent. i am not going into a global warming discussion here, really. I posted a NEWS article (I cut and pasted from a east europe newspaper). It is NOT a blog article that I wrote. I posted it. I wanted to know, simply, whether you had heard news from belgium on that and whether you could confirm or deny, or you don;t know.

That's it...i was asking a favor because I haven't met anyone from Belgium since I was in London last month, before the article was printed.
532. ryang
Taz we get the point...LOL
ric, you talkin about storm2k??
Jed i know the center is obvious but u dont have to pick on people
The banding on radar is very impressive - Andrea has excellent structure, she just needs some convection.
No there is't such thing as "cold energy" learn some science, heat is energy, and energy is heat, the more heat, the more energy, its all a matter of how much gets converted.

Hurricanes convert onlyt about 5% of their energy into the damaging effects they cause.

and i don't speak flemish or dutch, so i can't read the home papers....
dammit! I agree with Jed! LOL
taz- you are doing some awesome blob spotting. It looks like you favor the blog to the east of the big blob (that is easy of Andrea), right?

What are your thoughts on this?

...or french.

if you can help apocalypse...that would be great...if it is east europe propoganda, I want to take it down.
542. RL3AO
And updates on the storm formerly known as Andrea? I see she wants to rise from the dead.
Taz are u talkin about the little spin up or that big blob of convection and what about it?
LOL

My point here is, I'm trying my best to destroy the myths here, I may seem rather harsh, but when the myths of weather die, you shall thank me greatly lol.
Maybe some of you guys already know about the site on here but if you go to the Colorado State website on here.....they have the lastest and most close up images of Andrea...its in the tropical section on here....check it out....
thisisfurious the blob to the E of Andrea may be going out to sea i am not sure it may be come 91L i been watching that blob for a few days now it could be are next thing to watch
548. ryang
Taz means the convection east of Andrea!!
well...i married an englishwoman....it has helped to polish my brash american side.

anyway, if you can tell me whether or not this BBQ tax is real, I'd be most grateful...if you have spare time...
chessrascal i am talking about the blob E of Andrea i been watching it for a few days now
Hail, to thee, my alma mater...COLORADO STATE!
what do you think this is?

lol
ULL?

My next update will depend on the weather--
Jeff Masters


lol dr m thats funny
it's beer time...1730!

yeah!
not sure i am ask you
Hey where did everyone go?
559. Alec
we do have some awesome individual blogs here on WUG...might suggest y'all take a look=)
560. ryang
Taz...that's a ULL(Upper Level Low)
ok her is the blob E of Andrea and her is the blob i show you at my 2:32 post

lol
don't know

i was waiting for some answers....but i gotta pack for my trip and start the evening.

windy, sunny, more humid...clouds nearly gone in Orlando...come on Andrea....letting me down here!
bring on one of those rainbands....straight from st. augustine to orlando.
Alec....what up? Good to here from you....
565. ryang
At 3:00PM EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued a special statement saying that the remnants of Andrea have not yet reformed into a tropical depression. I tend to agree with this assessment but also recognize that the process of reformation has begun. All day we have been looking at more steady convection focused at the center of Andrea's remnant circulation. Outflow is now present and convection has continued to persist.

Why is the 5 o'clock report late ?
...I for one appreciate Adrian's casting. His casts are always informative and usually correct. Everyone has an opinion, sometimes they're not exact, but accurate. Since when did meteorology become an exact science anyway? It hasn't...and it certainly isn't on this blog.

Personally, Jed's remarks toward 23 were unwarranted and malicious. He's obviously a newbie, so he's got to learn, too. Personal attacks on a blog like this are pathetic.

Let's stick to the weather girls and boys, or maybe we can just turn this thing into viddles and varmits and a host of other hillbilly, arrogant crap. "Jed" might like that.

Adrian's a good caster and respectful, polite person. Lay off, please! Thanks.
Taz if it goes east it will get ripped apart by shear I just dont see much potential for it but it is a nice blob. lol
570. ryang
Why is the 5 o'clock report late ?

It isn't June1st yet...even if a storm is active...the NHC doesn't post until june 1st.
572. Alec
weatherboyfsu, good to see ya again...might intern at local NWS this summer...been resting...Im around, in the individual blogs....
The 5:00 is not up because she has not been reclassified yet. They will do regular updates on her though if she gets her name back. They were already doing it when she had a name.
Here we go guys.....


Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 111749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LAST NIGHT SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
LOW AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HOWEVER..SINCE THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST AT
11/1500Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS
BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W.




That may be old but i havent seen it on here.......
andrea may regain ts status by daylight sat morning
whoa look at the new burst of convection on the south side
Thank You Storm W; seems to me that the front may not be as strong as the models have projected....
sorry i didnt say Hi xP ...Hello guys..... did u guys see the feeder band over florida...its pretty cool
MOONLIGHTCOWBOY: I AGREE WITH YOU 100% ABOUT 23. I have asked him questions just about all winter and he's been very polite and helpful.
Thanks StormW; seems to me that the front/trof may not come in as strong as the models from this morning predicted...
looking at the visable it seems she may be trying to form a new center if you look closely it seems to be two centers the old one and one a bit to the south . also she seems to be getting bigger and expanding no doubt she lost size with only having her center for 1 and a half days how big will she get no idea sounds nice for florida though..
Is it my imagination or is the remnants of Andrea making a full transition into a true warm core tropical depression/storm.
Yepperrrrrrr.....
589. RL3AO
Andrea just needed a little warmer water.
590. RL3AO
Wow. Lookin' Good! Advisories might be re-initiated at 11.

1
See what the Tallahassee boys have to say.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS ANDREA CONTINUES TO SPIN E OF
CAPE CANAVERAL AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRIEF AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BROAD CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES
TO WRAP SMOKE AROUND THE SYSTEM. NELY WINDS ON OUR SIDE OF THE LOW
HAVE FANNED THE FLAMES OF THE FIRES OVER SE GA AND NE FL. THIS HAS
SPREAD LOCALLY DENSE SMOKE SWWD INTO OUR SERN FL BIG BEND ZONES AND
THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FROM THE SWRN BIG BEND
W THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS IS A SURE SIGN OF THE UPCOMING TREND
TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE. WE ALSO SEE A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NW GA AND CENTRAL AL. STORMS HAVE FIRED UP THERE AS WELL. THE
E COAST SEA BREEZE IS MAKING QUICK PROGRESS WWD AND IS JUST REACHING
THE FIRES.

&&
Thanks Ryan.
Now til between midnight and 2 or so is going to be the toughest time for Adrea. Convection has been dying down this time of day with this system...
594. IKE
Not sure I agree with that Tallahassee discussion about the shear soon to be increasing over Andrea. According to the shear maps on WU...the shear is favorable for the next 48 hours.

It does look on satellite like the center might be reforming slightly further south in the recent explosion of convection.


not overly impressive, but the "banding" does look somewhat better......

beer and tropical weather rules! :D
lol Thel...I second that :~)
there will be shear from the ULL..... question is "when"..........
thunderstorm activity is really exploding and is starting to form north of the center too as well as east
599. IKE
The ULL is south of Baton Rouge, LA. and is heading east. It should kick whats left of Andrea on out to sea in a couple of days if that ULL continues moving east.
don't you wish Andrea came with a remote control? LOL
601. IKE
You can see the ULL on wator vapor...Link
603. IKE
don't you wish Andrea came with a remote control? LOL

Yes...but I think that ULL, if it keeps moving east, will provide some scattered showers/TS for the eastern gulf coast states!
I agree with u IKE that low is just either going to suck up andrea or push her out to sea these guys r just a bunch of wishers.
605. IKE
I wish Andrea would soak Florida. Odds of that happening are small. Odds of it intensifying is a question.


Maybe the Caribbean is waking up
"these guys r just a bunch of wishers"

and some are just party poopers! :)
Storm Floater Visible Link
img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg">

Lets try it again. Maybe the Caribbean is waking up.
For one the ull is most likely going to get sheared itself looking at this map.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/ATL/01L.ANDREA/shear/20070511.1200.goes-12.shear.wind.cimss.x .jpg
GOM & Florida SSts..60 hour Model. Click on Fla and run as a Model Link
The ULL is expected to move into Florida, so don't worry, its not an outside chance of giving rain likely Andrea's remnants is, its more of a likey situation.
The ants sense her. They're in weird places up high. Got bit up handling hay off the top a 6' stack. Husband had some black ones under the hood of his car too.
If Andrea blows up overnight,Could the ULL be pushed south of her.If so,Could then the ULL (being south of her)force Andrea into Florida?
Talk about wishcasting,But can it?
615. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 5:43 PM CDT on May 11, 2007.


Maybe the Caribbean is waking up


According to the NAM and GFS, moisture will be increasing in the western Caribbean in 3 to 4 days...and hello KMAN.
The center Andrea looks like it is starting to move a little to the east.


Hope this posts this time
Actually after the last radar image, it looks like it is now moving due east.
TUTTs sometimes brings a large amount of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and cyclones and thus hinder their development. On the contrary, there are cases that TUTTs assist the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. Moreover, under specific circumstances, TUTTs can grow into upper cold lows and may enhance the development of low level disturbances.

from wikipedia
Hi Ike

For the first time in months we are seeing very cold cloud tops in the Central Caribbean underneath Jamaica. Perhaps a shift in the pattern that has existed since last Nov



now if we can just get this feeder band to extend a little further, maybe we can fire up some storms and douse this fire!!!
eveving all!
623. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 5:52 PM CDT on May 11, 2007.
Hi Ike

For the first time in months we are seeing very cold cloud tops in the Central Caribbean underneath Jamaica. Perhaps a shift in the pattern that has existed since last Nov


I was noticing that. Looks like you'll have a busy season down there.
Hi Bama

I see that the blog has been very active the last few days. Can you imagine what will happen when the season really gets going ? LOL
Good outflow setting up aloft, taking on a more symmetrical appearance, Buzzsaw like evennnnn!
Not too busy I hope but boy do we ever need rain now
627. IKE
Fire up some storms to....douse the fires. I hope so!
evening kman! Yea blog has been real busy. Going to have to find a whole to crawl in when things get crazy...LOL!
629. IKE
It'll be interesting to see what Andrea does overnight and in the morning.
thelmores....is that circle..at the georgia florida border...the repositioned center?...
To kmanislander from a fellow kmanislander, I'm just praying for rain, this is the driest I've seen it South Sound in my 42 years, it just same like the few showers that come skip South Sound, whats going on? Hoping for rain. Cheers!
632. IKE
That circle at the GA/FL border is where that massive fire is at.
Hi Stormpetrol

Like you I am starting to despair for rain. Two days ago they got tons over on the other side of the island.
I suspect that our turn will come soon but when it does it will be an inch an hour !! LOL
lmao ric :~()

Ok, this is kinda silly but 264hr gfs...



264hr GFS Notice the low moving on shore near NC...Again, not even really worth noting at 264hrs, but I was bored...
The Port Authority says we have had .6 of an inch of rain this month. Must have been somewhere else on the island !

Link


Andrea is exploding! Notice the high cloud tops.
Evening kman, Ike, and BT ☺
whats goin' on SJ?!! Andrea being difficult I see
Hi SJ

I have to run out for a bit but will bbl
I cant wait for the morning to see how she faired through the night.
NE side looks like it is starting to dry out again...
642. MZT
As hot and muggy as it's getting in NC, I can't see how FLA doesn't get it's afternoon thunderstorms going soon. Especially with Andrea drawing at least some ocean moisture over land!

Maybe the normal summer patterns are beginning to assert themselves now.
wow a sc/nc border landfalll much more to the west and closer to me. ill still watch it to see if it gets shifted further left.
I'm looking forward to the words Tropical Depression Andrea in the coming days or in the 8:05pm EDT discussion.
lol scCane...That is 264hrs out. No humane, computer, or anything else can predict that far out with any accuracy. Don't buy it. Watch it over the next week and see if the feature still exists and if any other models pick up on it.

Don't trust the long range models ☺
sorry ric...... my mouse slipped! LOL
647. MZT
Dare I say it? This is the best Andrea has looked in 2 days.
look at all of this

lol

lol
650. MZT
The ITCZ is active but still too far south. Give it another month.
Gonna loose her on radar soon if she continues this SE slide.

Not me SW.
StormW...do self appointed mets or online degrees count?
I am a self appointed weather junkie, does that count for anything ~)
Not many! Including Myself SW! Hobbiest here! Been following canes for about 6 years now! How about yourself?
Evening JP ☺
657. MZT
Is there Bahamas radar? Maybe pick it up that way.
i...once...met a meteorologist. See them on tv all the time...do those count? lOL?
659. MZT
Can't say I've watched storms every single year. But I started with the 1981 season.



now THATS a feeder band!!
looks frontal don't it??
662. RL3AO
Andrea is definatly becoming tropical.
That is a nasty line thel! Wow...
look out Bahama's! LOL
could we have competing centers???
would this be fun if she goes down close to the bahamas and then turns nw in a aloop da loop you never know
woohoo!! boxing match between centers! place your bets
That is what I am trying to figure out thel. Very strange look to it. Dang it, where is a profesional met when you need one...
669. FLBoy
Yow! Look out West End!




Posted By: StormJunkie at 11:35 PM GMT on May 11, 2007.

That is what I am trying to figure out thel. Very strange look to it. Dang it, where is a profesional met when you need one...


im here!!!
LAST NIGHT SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
LOW AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HOWEVER..SINCE THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST AT
11/1500Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS
BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W.

The NHC has her as a Tropical Depression, I don't know if that is currently correct. Convection is looking very impressive.
672. MZT
Strange appearance on radar. It's as if two bands are intersecting each other on the south side.
yea defintly looks like competing centers wonder if its try to reform or what this is usually the time she weakens shes got a pattern to weaken around sunset then gain alot more strenth round 11 pm with dinural affect.
674. FLBoy
It's just morphing into a hypercane.
675. FLBoy
Where's Al Gore when we need him?
676. MZT
It sure looks like it's about to build a strong band on the east side.


funny the sma;; nexrad shows 2 lines of storms?? but when i use long range.... I see 1........

Need another beer! LOL
678. MZT
Tropical storms tend to be stonger on the leading edge. The eastward movement that we're anticipating may be beginning now, and helping the cyclone develop convection.
figures..... I think thebAHAMA'S RADAR is an hour old! LOL
Whoa that band is strong..the Bahamas are definitley gonna feel the effects... do u guys think theres like gust to 35 mph in there??? Also there are two feeder bands over FL....... And if u look on water vapor..... theres kind of an indent forming in the main convection....is that were the center is??
Posted By: scCane at 11:41 PM GMT on May 11, 2007.

yea defintly looks like competing centers wonder if its try to reform or what this is usually the time she weakens shes got a pattern to weaken around sunset then gain alot more strenth round 11 pm with dinural affect.


Competing centers?Where do you get that from?
Any chance that weird radar sig is smoke getting sucked in? It looks like they even have smoke in the Bahamas...
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 11:48 PM GMT on May 11, 2007.

Whoa that band is strong..the Bahamas are definitley gonna feel the effects... do u guys think theres like gust to 35 mph in there??? Also there are two feeder bands over FL....... And if u look on water vapor..... theres kind of an indent forming in the main convection....is that were the center is??


The storm's sustained winds are likely 25-30...so yes,I'd say there's 35mph gusts in there.
T1.0/1.0 ANDREA


you think ANDREA could come back has a TS?
I definitley think they will give her back her name...she looks much better but she is a very small storm .... on water vapor more convection is building around the main convection .... I'm impressed by what Andrea's comeback
weatherboykris hello come to my blog
I seriously doubt she'll get her name back...unless convection fires between now and 11.
Junkie, you may be right! And or could the smoke particles aid in T-storm formation??

as for competing centers, I was asking for comment, not saying there was.....
On the latest Sat loops, Andrea is starting to suck smoke out of the SW Gulf coast of Florida accross S. Florida and towards the Bahamas..
690. FLBoy
Yeah, there's some gusts in that line:


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A FEW WATERSPOUTS...IN THE WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM TO WATERS AND FROM JUPITER
INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...OR FROM 57 MILES
EAST OF PALM BEACH SHORES TO 23 MILES EAST OF MANALAPAN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM AT
800 PM EDT...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS LINE OF STORMS PASSES.
(ESPI) for the last 30 days is -1.50
As soon as you notice the distinct comma shaped cloud mass indicating a developing tropical cyclonic storm and the associated cloud patterns, follow the progress of the storm. If it reaches a higher level of severity (for example, tropical depression to tropical storm, or tropical storm to hurricane,) examine the satellite images and make predictions of the pathway. For the following day; compare the previous day's prediction with the current day's position. You may want to look under hurricanes; at this site for the tracks taken by previous storms. If it turns out to be a major storm, keep track of all information presented in the media. SOURCE Good Resource, I learned a lot from here.
Posted By: thelmores at 11:53 PM GMT on May 11, 2007.

Junkie, you may be right! And or could the smoke particles aid in T-storm formation??

as for competing centers, I was asking for comment, not saying there was.....


As I said a few days ago...the smoke could provide extra condensation nuclei which could aid to start up convection.
Welcome back Andrea!!! THC will restart advisiores at 11 pm eastern time.
The center has reformed 72 miles east of vero beach florida winds at 4o to 45 mph moving south at 6 mph and expected to stall just north of west end bahama

Also The area of weather 600 ne of andrea has become better organized and will be watched for devolepment tommorow.
Where you getting that hd?
Good evening everybody.
Andrea seems to be getting better orginized every frame!
the red phone rang!!! givin' inside scoop!
im waiting to see if this convection holds up over the next couple of hours. looks promising now for re development.
Good evening bama
700. MZT
It is interesting. This is the time of night things normally wind down... and we wait for evidence of a diurnal improvment.
701. FLBoy
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES E OF CAPE CANAVERAL...
BETWEEN THE TWO CAPE CANAVERAL BUOYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT IT
LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
so if she does get her name back will she be subtropical or tropical?
If u watch her on visible satellite... u see that the storm overall is expanding
what say if this dos come back would it keeep the name Andrea or will they name it Barry???
bama, if what I am seeing is the system redeveloping then she is way south of the forecast points done by the NHC. The dry air is to the south of it and lightly on the north side. But there is some serious clouds blowing up on both sides of it, does this and the location hold any truth for redevelopment back into a tropical system?
looks like the center is drifting sse....... maybe more than a drift.....

which model had a bahama's storm..........
shes definitley not subtropical ....... Also in the last 8 hours andrea has doubled in size
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES E OF CAPE CANAVERAL...
BETWEEN THE TWO CAPE CANAVERAL BUOYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT IT
LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-79W.
it will be tropical noted the T# be come it dos not have STS on it T1.0/1.0 ANDREA

that was at 2:05pm 23
We all read that at 2:55 this afternoon 23! You have to admit structure has improved since then. Markedly in the past couple of hours!
i say if they do name it back to a TS it wont take Andrea it will take Barry
If the current trend can hold on for the next 3-4 hours, I would guess tropical depression status at 11:00 PM as Andrea from the NHC...
Link

Andrea is only under 5 to 10 kts currently!! Wow!
Taz...... if your name is Taz, and you get you name back..... who are you??? Taz right? LOL

My honest amateur opinion, what we have now is "tropical" in nature..... I think we can throw out the "sub".... but to be honest we may never know unless the hunters task tomorrow, if nec. If i was betting....... tropical! ;)
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:08 PM EDT on May 11, 2007.
what say if this dos come back would it keeep the name Andrea or will they name it Barry???

If it lost its circulation and came back it will be Barry. If it did not. It will be Andrea still. I think it was Stan in 2005 that crossed Mex. and there was a duscussion on wether I would get the next E. Pac. nam eor stay Stan. I think it will be regular( vs. Sub) tropical storm andrea if it comes back.
anyone heard from Randy as of late, I would love his input as a hurricane hunter on this storm and what its doing.
Is it just me or are Andrea's remnants moving south(east)?
Right now i don't think there's much chance of the center reforming beneath the convection to the south. The convection won't hang around long enought to generate the inflow and its window for intensification is fast closeing.GFDL dissapates the system at 102hrs.
jp, do you have the link for the Nogaps forecast track?
Kind of warm SST's where she is.

http://wavcis.csi.lsu.edu/forecasts/forecasts.asp?modelspec=temperatureLink
23, this system was supposed to be dead right now. Yet its still hanging around.
729. MZT
I wonder if that upper crescent, and the lower band will join, to form a comma shape?
what is 23 talking about?


the center did reform well the t-storms did any way
If this becomes barry and we have a storm every other day for the rest of the season , wich we are on pace to do. we would put 2005 to shame. there would be 92 named storms LOL
Your right JP! My apology 23! It is however gaining ground IMO!
center is reforming I do think taz, the question is will this dry air do anything to prevent it from doing so. What I think some are missing is the chance being where it is to draw up moisture from the caribbean that would enhance the storm as is.
Tell ya what....I'll keep saying its dead and then Andrea will keep firing up. She seems very motivated to make me wrong!! LOL!
Low shear right now and SST's around 75F....The issue will be whether she can remain intact enough to survive the pending shear increase coming fron the West going into tommorow IMHO...But for right now, her circulation and "training" looks impressive
Also has anyone noticed the High building just north and west of Andrea?A weakone but enough to shield it from the ULL in the Gulf for 48 hours.
nogaps is not available
If Andrea does head further south, sure death!

looks like the shear could pick up later tonight, and Andrea's "burst" could be over....

but if it heads N or NE, seems there is a pocket of low shear, but also cooler waters.....

will be an interesting race to 11pm for the NHC.... due to it's close proximity to the behama's, they may err on the side of caution, and give her TD status??
Link
close up IR
thel, what if a high were to build in to the north of it or over top of it. What are its chances then.
745. MZT
Wind gusts may be picking up a bit in the Bahamas.

Station SPGF1
she's about to tap in on some new moisture Link



last visible frame I could get.....

definitely tropical! ;)
Radar imagery from Melbourne seems to show that that andrea may now be starting to move with at least some easterly component.Also this system is extremely fragile in the sense that anything disruptive will probably open the low.Recon is scheduled for a flight tommorow morning if conditions warrent.I think the NHC will keep it at subtropical.
ts Andrea 01 t2.5
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg
cajun, have a look at the link. the last frame shows some type of blowup to the south side of the storm.
I think the GFDL initialized her a little too far north...she may be on the other side of the axis for the high building in...this could get fun tonight
sorry, here is the right link


PINHOLE EYE! LOL
Floater 1
Just keep refressing
I would love for this thing to slide over a little more to the east. some of that rain is pretty close to the Lake. I would appreciate that very much.
757. MZT
Here's an enhanced version of the visible image thelmores posted. Sure looks like a CDO is forming.

Andrea Visible
Link
huh?
Posted By: plywoodstatenative at 8:38 PM EDT on May 11, 2007. (hide)
I would love for this thing to slide over a little more to the east. some of that rain is pretty close to the Lake. I would appreciate that very much.

Thats unlikely as Andrea is likely to get scooped up by this cold-front.Unfortunately andrea has done 0 in helping our fire problems across our state actually made things worse as it brought very dry air down the state.
I just checked on NOAA and it said this under fcst/advisory

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

I guess its a goner????
hi all new here. Whatever happens we need some rain here in tampa, the smoke is so bad
I agree with the doc here, we have to monitor Andrea closely. It looks better than ever to me really. Read more here, detailed analysis:

Hurricane Warning
Great "ENHANCEMENT" MZT! :)

And I agree with the CDO comment as well!
Hi turtle..... Doc huh??? new blog?? LOL

We have been following "REAL" close for the last several hours! ;)

I'm glad yall following it, its alot more interesting now than ever before ;)
try this.http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?sattropical
what are your thoughts turtle??
Just got a small rain shower from ex-Andrea here in West Palm, Florida
774. RL3AO
Looking real nice.

1
The TROF should pick up whats left of andrea sometime this weekend as all models indicated a NE movement and out to sea with this system.
Mr.Lawyer.....

TD Andrea does not exist, at least officially! LOL

Your post smelled like spam almost, what does Andrea have to do with "burglary season"? LOL

Other than beach erosion, and blowing smoke around, what has Andrea done? LOL
looks like the thunderstorms are blowing up, falling apart quickly, then blowing up again a bit south of the previous blowup..rinse, repeat.

The system does look much better than it did not too long ago, though
NOAA NEWS~

The Saffir-Simpson scale has been a very valuable tool in warning people about hurricanes, but we have known for some time that the level of surge and surge-related damage is not well correlated with the maximum wind speeds at landfall, said Reinhold. The proposed methods may well lead to more consistent warnings of damage potential both for wind and surge. It could follow in the footsteps of NOAAs recent adoption of the Enhanced Fujita Scale for classifying tornadoes and provide the foundation for an enhanced Saffir-Simpson Scale.
JP he did made it up


her is the right T # 11/2345 UTC 28.4N 79.0W T1.0/1.0 ANDREA


Some smoke in West Palm today, being blown around by Andrea. Bad for the nose but makes beautiful sunrises and sunsets.
Nasa wont let me copy and paste.
http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/satimage/satImagery.cgi?domain=se
evenin Skye..... whats your take on Andrea's resurgence??
I agree Skye..... looks like a percolator! LOL
Models are in good agreement with a motion to the NE starting tommorow.
hey hurricanedave - Is that rain band going to get us ???
Taz thats not real time
whats my HTML editor thanks
Lake Worth Fl. Just got a good shower. I even went out and gathered water off the roof run off for the plants, I'll sleep better tonight
The remnants of Andrea have tracked much further south than what the NHC had originally thought although the last track update was late last night but still very interesting.
Same here Acesover8s. Even looks like we have a few more tonight. Just asking for .50 inches tonight and wont have to worry. Still this rain is very welcomed and is needed even more in N. Florida.
Posted By: thelmores at 1:08 AM GMT on May 12, 2007.
Mr.Lawyer.....

TD Andrea does not exist, at least officially! LOL

Your post smelled like spam almost, what does Andrea have to do with "burglary season"? LOL

Other than beach erosion, and blowing smoke around, what has Andrea done? LOL


lol thel ☺ ☻ youare on a roll tonight !~)
The flight tommorow should leave around 16:00z around noon time edt.They should arrive at the system around 2:30pm .

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A ANDREA
C. 12/1600Z
D. 29.0N 79.0W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
I thought that they are going to start doing practice runs every other day. I guess there practicing with whats left of Andrea.
the northern part of Andrea kind of collapsed
As best I can tell using radar, we have a NE movement at about 5mph........
i agree. The northern part has collapsed while the southern has exploded.
"lol thel ☺ ☻ youare on a roll tonight !~)"

thanks Junkie! :)

Never really liked lawyers too much! LOL
nvm another burst of convection is forming in north
just saw that roman
I agree; the southern half looks healthy.
803. MZT
If it really is tropical and warm core, we should be seeing it bottom out of the diurnal minimum soon.
I don't know thel, I am thinking more of a just S of E movement?

I will be interested to see what the 00z model runs say. They should have a better handle on the slightly stronger ex-Andrea.
Posted By: thelmores at 1:35 AM GMT on May 12, 2007.

As best I can tell using radar, we have a NE movement at about 5mph........
NE are crasy!!
Moving Sw and wolbeling at that keeps reforming to the south and west
hmmm, my nw-5 was based on miami radar, but looking at melbourne.... we ll maybe a little east and north....
808. MZT
It looks a lot like it did early this morning. At that time there were similar delicate bands to the south of it. (Current radar)

S FL radar
maybe it is the "expanding" of the storm, and the 6 Guinness I drank which is moving NE! lol
So close! Yet, So Far Away!



Keep saying that though! Going to be knocking on some doorsteps!
tap, tap, tap, tap, tap, tap ...
So close! Yet, So Far Away!



Keep saying that though! Going to be knocking on some doorsteps!


my door step!!
Low is @ about 28N 79W according to the floater!



anybody??
well maybe I will get some rain out of this one
heres what i am seeing, or at least what i think i am seeing. The system's overall movement is basically to the NE as the models call for, but because convection is exploding and disappearing, the storm jogs to where the largest amount of convection is at that point in time. Since this is occurring in both the south and north however, it is not affecting the overall movement much at all.
I think we have 1/2 a TD! lol
I think she is going to put on quite a show tonight! Hopefully in the way of much needed rains! I have been looking at the Floaters, seems like the center is relocating south! Really starting to take shape off the coast of East Central FL.
The freakin rain band dissipated after crossing the Lake !
Andrea is almost "completely" surrounded by dry ....... being squished! LOL
She's not supposed to kick off to the NE until tomorrow! Not for sure but you could be seeing a shedded low! Floaters have the center much further south and east!
Doh! Dry air pwns again!!!
lol that sucks!!! Mayb she will make more rain bands for us...she keeps changing , Idk what shes gonna do
15-20Kt now. R.I.P.
It's right off my doorstep in Melbourne. Today was certainly the lowest racing clouds I'd seen yet with it, they could of been lower, there's no condensation on the windows, hotter than it's been yes but when the wind picked up out of the NNW & eventually the N it would still have a hint of cool. Need to empty the camera card. Neat clouds, a partail rainbow lastnight & a heavy laying of contrails across the sunset tonight, some disappearing quick, others expanding, refracting sunset out of a glowing line.
we need rain here, the smoke is bad
828. MZT
Well I don't feel like hanging around for confirmation of a nighttime improvement - it will, or it won't. I usually wake up in the middle of the night anyway for a spot check...
she hasnt changed much in the last coupple hours ..to me she actually looked better 2 hours ago
given further southward drift lower shear expect developement to occur till sunday afternoon at which time shear should begin to increase, by sunrise saturday morning system will show signs of signifcant and robust convection with inproving out flow banding
Make sure and post some of those pics Skyepony !
833. MZT
Not likely to see any change of opinion at the NHC at 11:00. Any upgrade would have to wait until daylight or recon.

Oh well, later.
did she relocate her center ?? look on water vapor
All I have to say is...keep her out of the GOM!!!
NHC latest update




000
WTNT31 KNHC 110238
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

...ANDREA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Really JP, Nothing at all. Still going up an out same way as forcast, just how far south does she go before that happens? Further south, warmer waters, may equal more rain.
That is from the 10th Luv! Today is the 11th.
841. ryang
Hello Guys
ok, that was taken care of ☺

Evening Labz, good to see you :~>
843. ryang
That's last night Labz
I spent so much mental imagery trying to figure that...... gave up...

non the less, once again it appears conditions have turned somewhat unfavorable for Andrea....

still quite amazing what occurred today! :)
new burst of convection to the NE
finally shes starting to improve herself .. what do u guys think??
TWC was just in Lake City. They are on alert for evacuation tomorrow if needed. They also showed some crazy pics from Tampa. Thick smoke...
well looks like the weakning is over dinural kicking in right on schedule :)
she's done...good night...see you guys when the next storm comes in...can't keep in touch much from new mexico over next 4 days.

she is totally dead.
skbrian thats whats people have been saying since this tuesday......
dang, think I was right earlier when I said NE at 5mph! LOL

nite all! :)
Wow...there is ONE,wimpy,small thunderstorm with this system and people are still clinging to hope it comes back?LOL,dream on!


i aint' dreamin....earlier, all of east central florida was covered in scatered showers on nexrad...i can vouch for the fact that I am here and can see the stars!!!!!!!

nothin left...she's dead.

see you wed....or thurs....if all quiet on wednesday
damn lol .... radar makes hthe storm so much different ;D... in that case she is dying lol
How in the world can a low track to the NE with an upper high digging down to the SW above the low? Seems like it would actually get forced SW, as you see in the WV loop!
Got the smoke ploom from up north today cant imagine hoow bad it is on the georgia nad florida line we are 350 iles south and the smoke from it was bad enough here in Punta Gorda flodia hey to all !!!!!!
ummm shes out of range of the radar meaning she is moving .
Andrea is definitely not dead, as it is there. Whether it gets strong enough to be re-declared remains to be seen. It needs a good overnight burst of convection.
qestion do tropical stroms ever orm off the texas coast in the gulf and travel easterly towars the florida west coast ?
Kind of looks like COC took a jump to the SSW.
Cane
Looks like it could go NW...or maybe get "spit" SE by that view.
Evening Turtle! Congrats on your achievements! Pressures are falling here in Palm Beach Gardens, you think it will move any further South?
4-panel WV Zoom to La. from Atlantic Link



looks to me like sheer in the short term is going to be a real problem for Andrea.....
On the water vapor loop, it almost looks as if the system is being stretched out. There is a lot of dry air, however that didn't keep it from developing earlier in the week. It'll have to get some thunderstorms quick though.
Goes-WV LOOP in motion Large..Click to enlarge..Link
It looks (If the timing is right) she may be able to go all the way around florida.Has that ever happened? (Without a landfall) Other than the panhandle.
thanks jpcane i lived in the midwest most of my life and new to this tropics thing got here just in time for charlie i mean the week off it was a rude awakening i tell ya .I find the tropical weather much more fasinating and have learned a lot rom just blogging with you guys ,now my daughter has caught on and wants to study weater paterns ,so are storm comming out of texas ussually fast developers i mean do we have days to plan for them or are they qiucker to develope or does alot determine them also /
Andrea has died, dangit! lol
The shear where Andrea is (or what was Andrea, depending on your view) is nonexistant:

she has new convection on the north side...mayb she isnt done just yet>???? w/e we will find out tomorrow ...well im off to bed goodnight
the surface low has died, its chances of raising itself from the dead are quite low as only one in history raised himself from the dead and that was Jesus lol
The steering Layer for a weak low would allow a little more travel to the south as long as it remained above 999mb! The 999mb and below would eject quickly to the NE!
ya that is true, but it doesn't look like its moving south any further, which would probably favor the northeast kick out to sea and getting squashed.
Anyone notice the WAVE in the Western Caribb on the 72hr Surface Map?
I didnt expect it to cut NE for another day at least. I looks like it already has.
its seems what is holding andrea back is not the shear rather dry air most likely since no after noonheat no moisture is able to come up but if you notice in sc moisture is coming from the trough maybe that will break up all the dry air I think right now andrea is to weak to get picked up but in the afternoon tomorrow it could easly strenthen and get picked up will have to wait to see.
882. Inyo
Posted By: Jedkins at 4:30 AM GMT on May 12, 2007.
the surface low has died, its chances of raising itself from the dead are quite low as only one in history raised himself from the dead and that was Jesus lol


well what about Lazarus? I guess he didn't raise himself
No, but the Pixies did.
Everyone here does it every damned day.
and.. all of the kids in Iraq.
Andrea or atleast whats left of here remains rather weak with the stongest winds i found were at 20-25kts around the low with some scattered thunderstorm activity to the south around 26N-30N.Some slight chance of restrengthing as it heads out to sea and gets picked up by the approaching cold-front.
885. FLBoy
Melbourne NWS:

LOW PRESSURE ADVERTISED BY GFS EMERGING OUT
OF CARIB APPEARS IS SUSPECT ATTM
AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EUROPEAN
SOLN`S OR ANY GENESIS ON 84 HR NAM.


Miami:

GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. DISCOUNTED THE LOW IT SHOWS MOVING SE OF
THE AREA OUT OF THE CARIB...AS THIS LOOKS SUSPECT.


Key West:

THE LATEST EXTENDED GFS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO LATCH ON TO
GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE RAINS WOULD SURE BE
WELCOME...BELIEVE THESE NUMBERS ARE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY SEEING HOW IT HAS BEEN SPORADICALLY SPINNING
UP LOW PRESSURES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS DURING
THAT TIME.

Models
a


no one's left out......
saturday love fest........


to all my friends on the doc blog
Hey stormw...

Cant wait till next year as hopefully i will be done with school at rosential.Look to finish up in april 2008.

Anyway not much change with the leftovers of andrea overnight as the pressure dropped some but conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclone development at this time.Should get scooped up by the approaching cold-front.Adrian
889. MZT
"Andrea" disappoints again. Who'd a thunk it?
Here I sit! Staring down the coffee pot, HURRY UP, lol! Morning all! Yeah, I agree about the dry air! She kept trying to fire but sputtered!

Low in the Caribbean @ 72hrs
The GFSx takes the Caribean Low North then out to sea...Link
Good morning all.
894. MZT
I will not let myself spend all Saturday blob watching. Gonna go clean my gutters before it gets hot outside.
895. IKE
On that visible it looks like some of the moisture from the leftovers of Andrea is getting drawn into the ULL over the gulf. A portion of Andrea is flairing up on her eastern side...appears to be heading NE.

It's almost adious for Andrea.

Wonder if they'll cancel the flight. SAVE THE GAS!
I see our Andrea didn't make a comeback last night... Oh well, she didn't bring the rain we needed anyway so "Begone with the wench!" LOL!

Now give us a TD or small TS with some rain! LOL

Happy Saturday, busy at work so will only take a peek during breaks.

Have a great weekend and be nice to your mother's tomorrow!!!!
OK, If Andrea is dead then what is going on off the east coast of florida? Just thunderstorms???
Well i admit when i am wrong and do it on such a regular basis that it really doesnt hurt my ego to admit when i am wrong .geez this system doesnt not want to go away . .ooh well i guess another day is another day in the rumper room "tropical roundup"good morn to you all and no im not afraid to be wrong !!!
Very nice graphic MIcheal!!
I thik that is Andrea .humm no brainer
SAturday
o_0 ^^
Looks like there is still a coc and moisture to spare this morning. Did or is recon going out?? They have a TCPOD for today.
they are going tohave to redesignate this storm

There is NO storm..just a remnant Low being Monitored

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N79W. THE PRESSURE OF THIS LOW HAS DROPPED
DURING THE NIGHT BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
So, just scattered showers and thunderstorms. Hmm?
aNDREA IS ON THE MOVE BACK TO WHERE SHE WAS BORN
Posted By: dewfree at 1:20 PM GMT on May 12, 2007.

they are going tohave to redesignate this storm


Andrea's reminains aren't looking to good to come back to being A tropical system, either way it'll get picked up by the front and then takin away from florida as the other one stays in
very fuuny tell me what is that turning out thier a clyclone or what
Quite impressive compared to last night.Or for that matter,to any other time during the storm's life:

LOL..IVe got toilets with lower pressure..
Yes Patrap,it is a wimp.But it could get renamed later today when the reocn fly.
Here's are some loops of Andria

AVN IR Loop
WV Loop
RGB Loop
Alas..maybe. But Fla will get relief from the west. Not the east.
Morning y'all, good to see everyone.

Dang kris, you sure have taken a 180 stance on this thing since last night ☺

She is really disorganized now. Lots of convection though...
919. ryang
It has a good spin as well.
homegirl~ possible recon flight isn't til this afternoon. They haven't put out the flight plan for the day yet. So no conformation either way.
OK, now someone say, "i've seen less become a cat 5!!"

Then someone say "even if it did reform it will be picked up and taken out to sea"

Next "Someone wishcast it west"

Finally "it's an eye! a pinhole eye!!"

OK, it's all done, no need to have this discussion again.
I agree.. she has a lot of convection but hse is disorganized..... is this thing gonna move out to sea?
whats that thing in the gulf??
cant help but notice andrea remants lookin kind of healthy this morning
whats that thing in the gulf??




nothing
oh


MORNIN SJ
Hi. Do you really think Andrea will survive again?
well so far she has survived so why or what reason would we have to believe other wise