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Andrea no help for Florida's fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:26 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity has decreased on the storm's west side, but become a little more concentrated on the east side. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has remained about the same, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant. Andrea remains a sloppy, disorganized storm. The main threat from the storm is coastal erosion due to the pounding surf it is generating--plus a possible fanning of the fires burning in Florida and Georgia (see below).

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 25 knots this evening. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-25 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
As Andrea began to form on Tuesday off the Carolina coast, the counter-clockwise circulation of air around the center of low pressure brought northerly winds over northern Florida and southern Georgia, where significant fires are burning. These north winds blew the smoke from the fires into the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, where unhealthy levels of particulate matter air pollution were recorded (Figure 1). The storm moved far enough west and south today that a more westerly flow of air has been carrying the smoke out over the Atlantic. Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them; in fact, the storm's high winds have served to fan the flames.

Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of fires burning over Florida on May 8, 2007. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period with a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update in the morning. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Smokey Florida Sunrise
Smokey Florida Sunrise
Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.
Smoke
Smoke
Smoke moving in to Central Florida from the fires in Georgia and Northern Florida created this interesting orange glow. I took this photo, this morning, looking east across Lake Henry near Winter Haven.

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hilton Head/S. C. beachcam..Live Link
Nice update
Thanks for a late day update Dr. Masters.
thanks Dr. Masters.
Does he post updates this often always during the season?
Thanks Dr. Masters I was afraid the winds would add issues to the fires.
Main article: 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical

Storm
Tropical Storm One apparently was not aware of the usual seasonal limits, and formed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2. It moved quickly northeastward, hitting Florida the next day as a 50 mph tropical storm. The storm moved rapidly up the coast, and became extratropical on the 4th


like why dos evere one keep forgeting the Groundhog Day Tropical storm?
Yep, thanks Dr M ☺

Geuss he is not too interested in any center reformation or intensification.
Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.
I guess this answers my question about rainfall around Daytona Thursday morning...
'Cause...no one knew about it before you just posted,Taz.LOL.Interesting UKMET forecast:

Good stuff. Andrea. She came. She saw. She...fizzled.
If I read this right, they have it almost a warm core after strating out as a cool core.
40 frame 4hour loop. She has 3 lobes of moisture ..on the 248nm radar look.But its a very lean on Moisture. Like a carburator firing with not enough fuel 3
Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992


dr m what about this one back in 1952?

Main article: 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical

Storm
Tropical Storm One apparently was not aware of the usual seasonal limits, and formed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2. It moved quickly northeastward, hitting Florida the next day as a 50 mph tropical storm. The storm moved rapidly up the coast, and became extratropical on the 4th


If this were July Patrap...it'd have enough fuel.
That is correct lennon.
Thanks Dr M for the update.

It is looking bad -- as in not a rainmaker. We really needed that, the situation is past critical.

I hold out hope tonight it does some unexpected strengthening.
she really cant mantain her convection but shes trying to make her self bigger ..if u noticed the rainbands are getting longer to the south
It's a Gertrude Stein storm. There's no there there!
Posted By: Rlennon at 11:37 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

If I read this right, they have it almost a warm core after strating out as a cool core.



Yes,but notice how it just meanders it off the FL coast.The UKMET's been saying that for two runs now.
Posted By: Rlennon at 11:37 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

If I read this right, they have it almost a warm core after strating out as a cool core.



Yes,but notice how it just meanders it off the FL coast.The UKMET's been saying that for two runs now.
yes I did notice that
Sorry for the double post.
you better be sorry weatherboy!!
lets wait till after midnight she sleeps in the daytime and comes alive after mid. this has happen for 3 days now shes a night bird .
Many miles meandering with a mazy motion.....
I think she deserves the name.... I've seen worse storms with names..... Shes not the best storm but she is one...... But i dont see how she is subtropical anymore?
you guys go by the models you will learn nada...try to make your own forecast on the storm by looking at the atmospheric conditions around the storm and you will come out much better then the computer models...look at the water vapor and the sst and also look where the azores high is setting up this year...thats a big factor for the gulf this year because we already have a strong la nina out there in the pacific....
Will we be looking at subtropical depression Andrea at 11?
The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere.

-----------
there was a subtropical storm in the Southern Hemipshere in mid April, but anyway Cliff is a close reference to the last cyclone.
Posted By: stormybil at 11:46 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

lets wait till after midnight she sleeps in the daytime and comes alive after mid. this has happen for 3 days now shes a night bird .



I agree...we'll see a burst of convection tonight,which may push it to 55mph before finally going down in intensity.
Shear is increasing over Andrea, and it will be interesting to see if she can develop good late night convection. However, I am not expecting much from this storm. It is hard for me to be sure, but the center is definitely no further west and may be further east than it was earlier today.

Right here on the immediate GA coast we had 0.01" of rain yesterday, and 0.18 inches today. Wow.
38. MZT
Chris, Beryl, and The 2nd re-organization of "Ivan" were all very sloppy looking storms. I don't have a problem with a name being applied to this one. The aircraft data from this morning supported it.
Even Dr. M seems excited about the early start to the season! 3 blogs in one day seems a record for me! LOL


For all those who think Andrea does not deserver Her name......


42. MZT
I don't think the shear will do Andrea in. This is a shallow, hybrid storm like Zeta and Epsilon.

If she behaves like the last couple of nights, by about 11:30PM we should be able to tell if the diurnal intensification is taking root. It's not that long a wait.
Posted By: MZT at 11:51 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Chris, Beryl, and The 2nd re-organization of "Ivan" were all very sloppy looking storms. I don't have a problem with a name being applied ot this one. The aircraft data from this mornign supported it.


Chris was not disorganized.Was a 'cane looking storm compared to this one.
Shear last night was 10 kts over Andrea and is forecast to be 30 kts tonight. That might strip any convection away. It will be interesting to see what happens.
What will it take to end the fire situation in the Southeast other than Andrea is there any hope on the horizon or more smoke?
i still dont think she will make full tropical status or reintensify. The thunderstorm clouds have never gotten too high with this thing due to the stable airmass above it.
lmao thel..

Got animosity sk?

Check out the orginal low level center moving down the coast just S of Hinesville. Pretty cool.
Chris storms have always been weak :P
How long will the shear be around 30 kts?
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 11:54 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Shear last night was 10 kts over Andrea and is forecast to be 30 kts tonight. That might strip any convection away. It will be interesting to see what happens.



I don't see that happening.The GFS is forecasting light shear,the NHC doesn't even mention shear.All due respect to Dr. Masters,but I don't see where he's getting that from.
Good Call JP your on the mark! I saw the coordinates further SW interesting.
nhc is guessin' at cordinates....throwing darts!
StormJunkie, can I get a link to your page I had to format my computer and lost the link.
I agree with that BT.
thank you StormJunkie
can somebody show me where Dr. M got his 30knot shear value from???

With all due respect......
Good to see you jp ☺
64. MZT
Shear will not snuff out Andrea tonight. And you can write that in stone! LOL
SJ what do you agree with me on...the dart thing?
all right STORMTOP
stormkat calm down...we dont need none of that in here
stormkat...shut up and stop being a jerk.We're trying to have a civil conversation here and you're being an arrogant jerk.
72. WSI
Evening folks. SJ, congrats on your forecast. Guess or not, you were right.

Storm not looking too healthy right now. I have not been keeping up with it much through the day, but it is certainly not the storm it was this morning.

Rlennon, SJ has a good site. I also have plenty of links on mine as well. Links in the directory. Other pages of interest too.
73. MZT
WSI, this storm has looked pretty crappy between 8:00 to 10:00 yesterday and Monday. I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt.
"Posted By: weatherboykris
stormkat...shut up and stop being a jerk.We're trying to have a civil conversation here and you're being an arrogant jerk."

Thanks for saying what I was thinking! LOL
Wow! Three blogs in 1 day on this supposed "unorganized mess" seems like it is really important. Just got back from the beach, as we left winds increased to the 20 mph range, i got an official reading on my anemometer while i was there of 15 mph. Heavy rain began to fall. The winds are still going now and the rain has subsided somewhat...
shear is about 20 knots and expected to increase 5-10 knots in 24 hours according to the shear tendency map.
Thank you WSI
Posted By: stormkat at 12:07 AM GMT on May 10, 2007.

wel i will leave you children practice on this little rain event for fla...jp please dont try and locate the center it has none...ill be gone guys good luck with your discussion lol...


No center?...Oh...my...All those buoy reports,dropsondes,and radars must have been malfunctioning!
81. WSI
"I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt."

I was suggesting nothing to the contrary. Just saying the storm has gone down hill.

The odds are against it right now though. I wish it would sling a decent amount of rain over Florida though.
Andrea looking kinda ragged. 45 mph is the highest it will probably go.

Anyways, check out my Poll/Voting game blog; it's awesome.
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 12:08 AM GMT on May 10, 2007.

shear is about 20 knots and excepted to increase 5-10 knots in 24 hours according to the shear tendency map.


That map shows what shear has done in the past 24h.
let it go weatherboy....they will come in here all season trying to pick fights. dont let them get to you
SK is sounding alot like ST...
Alright Bama.
WIND SHEAR

I hope this clarifies Dr. Masters' Forecast
Thanks HFC...I still don't see 30kt,but ok.
oh, I thought it showed the tendency for the next day..
WBK- 20 Knots now.. 30 knots overnight. That's the forecast.
A slow weakening trend seems like a good forcast as continues its slow drift to the SW.
Evening Will, good to see you and thanks ☺

I agree with throwing darts BT :~)

One of the center thingys is right on the GA coast. Radar and the MIMIC seem to support that.







Probably,Adrian.If there's no new burst tonight...then it'll be dead by this time tomorrow.
95. MZT
Alberto soldiered on pretty well under 20-30 knots of shear. Why not this one?
96. WSI
SJ! Link man. Link. That is a 6MB image. Going to maul the dial-up people, LOL!

ewww...who has dial up?
If it were to move into the gulf which i dont see happen it will certainly be choked to death as there is tons of dry and high shear dominateing the gulf right now.Andrea is likely to be gone by this time tommorow if not sooner if thunderstorm activity does not pick up.SST'S are just not warm enough.
Andrea has gotten sloppier looking on satellite and radar over the course of the day...where is the real coc?
101. WSI
I don't, but you never know. I know plenty of people that still have it. Last year Dr. M told people to lay off the images. Something like under 200k I think. In any case, 6MB is pretty large.
Oh wow, i honestly (in my class) know one person with it.
103. WSI
Yeah. I know people that live out in the middle of nowhere, LOL!

yeah lol...
NHC 8pm Special Feature....

SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 79.5W AT 10/0000
UTC OR 110 MILES SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. ANDREA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER LARGE SLOPPY CIRCULATION
OF ANDREA HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE DECLINE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW QUADRANT
. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOWS NARROW BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ONSHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AN IMPROVED WIDER BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE
. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
are those two bolding statements contradicting...
ok - so checking in. Our clouds are getting thick here and the wind is howling outside - i have funny pictures of me and daughter pretending to be willow trees (too many rum and cokes) and the clouds outside. Not much rain - a few drops here and there in Savannah (actually about 40 miles south). No big deal - I always worry about the tornados and such but with such heavy winds, I don't know if there is anything to worry about (from the west originally so I am still learning east coast "weather").

Anyway - what do things look like - i have checked anything that is going on yet - SJ? SW?
BTW does anyone know of any rss imagery? i am having a hard time finding some
HurricaneFCast, thanks, after looking at the shear map, it became obvious what Dr. Masters so astutely pointed out.



if not for the shear, I believe Andrea could have transitioned, but if you look at the sat above, you can see the direction of the shear, and the effects it is having.

no NW convection, partly due to dry air, partly shear. The circulation is shallow, but is still feeling effects of the shear. the center of circulation is "almost" exposed now..... all the huge convection on the SE side is being blown SE.....

The only chance Andrea has I believe, is to stay stationary, or drift SE...... and at this point, I give up on speed, direction..... and well, intensity seems limited by the shear....

anyway, saw that with my beer goggles on! LOL
110. WSI
BTW does anyone know of any rss imagery?

Only think I know of is the NHC RSS products. Like I have here.

Its not even imagery really. Just a link to it.
hey melwerle i am down here in jacksonville, florida it is windy and rainy here
Sorry y'all. MIMIC linked.

My bad WSI, completely forgot about the size thing. usually don't post image, but that one tells a good story.

You can also find the CIMSS site which produces the MIMIC imagery from here.
Overall what there saying is Andrea remains rather disorganizd and futher strengthing does not seem likely at this time.Maybe things will change overnight but as of now the drift continues as another system kicks here out to sea in a few days.
5 Times as much moisture and MUCH warmer sst's!
115. WSI
No prob SJ. Didn't want your comment to get canned. ;) It is a good image though. I like those images.
well i'm gonna go now...i will get back on later
Posted By: C2News at 12:29 AM GMT on May 10, 2007.
are those two bolding statements contradicting...


I dont think so its its just saying that she was decreasing in convection and now shes getting her act back together after the circulation center change.
Posted By: C2News at 8:29 PM EDT on May 09, 2007.
are those two bolding statements contradicting...


I don't think so! They are explaining what happened to Andrea most of the day! I would think they start writing these reports at least an hour early! They must have wanted to note this occurance!
Maybe with all the HP around this thing the shear will increase the outflow while HP holds her together. After the shear decreases I think the convection on the east side will wrap around and even out.
I don't see Andrea moving very much.

Is HP in the GOM supposed to increase?
ok srry i stuck around i am actually leaving now but shear if anything is supposed to increase
121. MZT
It takes a lot of beating before the NHC downgrades a storm. The NHC kept a name on Zeta and Chris long after they became pitiful shells of their former selves. One quadrant of continuing convection is sufficient.
It's still too soon to talk about Chris,lol.


The COC shows up pretty good on this:

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=bah&size=large&period=720&incr=60&r r=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off


I like these satellite shots. I can't remember who posted that link yesterday but you know who you are. Thanks!
T-numbers confirm andrea is slowly weakening.

SEE HERE
Yep, good evening to you too '03 ☺
126. MZT
Comparing the 8:05 and 8:51 images here on WU, I think the storm is holding it's ground and possibly beginning to intensify again. But I'll wait for a few more images to arrive before making that call. (It was obvious by 11:30 yesterday.)
crap...am i a spammer now?!!!
LOL...BT. Never you!! You entertain us!

Beginning to intensify? Huh?
Spam posts may contain anything from a single link, to dozens of links. Text content is minimal, usually innocuous and unrelated to the forum's topic.

Another type that is recently hitting forums is full banner ads and blatant posting of an ad that is unrelated to the thread's topic. This takes away from the thread creator's topic of discussion, is rude and interrupts any fluid discussion started. This also eats up bandwidth, the time for someone to delete the SPAM and space wasted on the server. Especially when the person is going from thread to thread posting the same thing over and over with no regards to the topic or rules of those forums posted to.


From wikipedia

Or am I just misunderstanding? Are you calling someone a meat like substance?
hey c2 - nothing much here. Just wind and a few "sprits" here and there. Funny - i haven't looked to see where this is right now but i feel like it should be doing more than this. Although not complaining AT ALL - we have a fab breeze and COOL weather for a change. If it could be like this all the time, our real estate would go up like it was in San diego before we sold...
132. WSI
SJ who are you talking to?

Ooops.. guess I have to turn the filters off to see. :)
Tune in to IPR and listen to the TROPICAL ROUND TABLE @ 9PM.

CLICK HERE and select your player on the left.
Nah, you got it right..LOL Good job SJ.

Was down near the beach alittle while ago. Man, this is a joke. So far a few light showers. Seas have actually come down a bit from yesterday. The beach took a pounding unfortunately, but we are prone to that here.
135. MZT
Yeah, it could just be a distortion in the calibration for the infrared color sequence. That's why I want to see a few more images roll in.
Who uses filters? Only the geeks!..LOL
Thanks 23!! Will check it out.
up to 0.20" for the storm total now. Gonna have to build an ark!
You gotta be kidding, this thing is nothing!
Here is Andrea in 2 hours! LOL






Anywho, I think you must have misundertood the data again '03. Unrelated....


Nice try thel :~)
There is an increase in active in the SE quadrant, but I don't think there is enough moisture to let intensification happen.
St. Simons. 0.10" Woohoo!!..LOL Ya just got to watch TWC. They are searching for something to say!!
shower activity off the northern GA coast is increasing---no real banding, just lots of little heavy showers popping up everywhere.
146. MZT
Think I'll find something else to do for an hour, check it again after 10:00.
Well 0.20, not 0.10 :) But still like I said earlier. It's a Gertrude Stein storm. There's no there there!
Dont get me wrong, I want this thing to get going. I am sad:( I want rain. Tomorrow may be our chance. Please.
Here is a better view of Kris which had no chance due to increaseing shear.

NAKED SWIRL...

FFF
im waiting for the pics of down tree limbs to start coming in....its funny though because alot of times i've noticed in these weak storms the limbs have clean cuts like somebody chopped it down and took the picture.
No, that was my amount!..LOL
Tune in to IPR and listen to the TROPICAL ROUND TABLE @ 9PM.

CLICK HERE and select your player on the left.
Hey MZT...IDOL is on!!
154. MZT
Bamatracker: Yeah, I remember during Rita, TWC would go live to a reporter in Galveston. LOOK!! A palm frond is on the ground! =:-O
155. MZT
Nah. I'll get ice cream. Cold Stone is open till 10:00. Check back later for CAT 4 Andrea.
The pic that comes to mind for me is during Dennis here in mobile county a couple of years ago. The only damage was a small tree that was cut about halfway up that the top fell. You could tell they just cut it to get their house on tv!
Ok this is the second night in a row that this blog died during Idol LOL!!! I knew all of you were lying about not watchin' it.
Does anyone have a link that will forcast the bermuda high this summer?
Bamatracker are you from Alabama (not trying to be funny)?
BT, please don't acuse me of that anymore...lol
dont know if that exist Rlennon. think we have to wait until June to see.
yep! Mobile
weatherguy03 where yat?
Cool Dothan here
Sorry SJ...not you. You're still here!!
"Posted By: hurricane23
Here is a better view of Kris which had no chance due to increaseing shear."

na-na-na-na-na, my picture is better than yours! LOL

oh..... and it was CHRIS!
St. Augustine.
Thats cool....i just was over a couple of months ago helpin' out the PetSmart. Nice little town...like the circle road yall have!!
hey bt - i don't watch that stuff - i am here. i would rather beat myself about the head with a fake leg...oh wait...umm...
I'd rather have Waterboarding than watch American Idol! LOL
LOL yea we make big circles.
i thought that was Chris Thel....didn't want to say anything though because I've been wrong too much this week.
Watching Grass grow is better than Idol.
You talkin to me BT??
Texas is getting hammer 2 doppler tornadoes in 1 county.
03 you listening?
naw '03...i was talking about Dothan, Al. The town is a big circle. Its awesome!
Oh ok..LOL Yes I am 23.
if we could just combine the storms in Texas and with Andrea....we could have a decent TS right now!!!
Bama! I remember that!LOL! I also love it when they find a board or stick floating in the water and zoom in for a close-up!
I am curious to see what this does to the SSTs along the E coast seeing as how it is such an ealry storm and it is just sitting there. I would think that initially the surface temps would cool, but in the long run I am geussing that it will increase the depth of the heat. Any thoughts?
Evening baybuddy...yea WKRG 5 kept showing every 15 minutes. Between that and the flashes down to Dauphin Island showin the sea breeze trying to pass it off as Dennis it made for interesting tv.
Bama, what part of Mobile are you from? Sorry if you already told me.
i live across the skret from USA
I think you are right SJ. The deep water will get brought up to the surface and it will be cooler but this will act like a spoon in a pot and stir it up and will warm up faster. But will the Gulf Stream carry the cooler water to the north?
seems the shear is kicking in..... not allowing for intensification.......

having said that,Andrea is stationary, and still tapping energy from the Gulf Stream! ;)

oh i dn't believe it - we lost everyone to american IDOL. I quit! I thought I was a geek....
Another thing about local t.v. The weather guys need to learn how to use their new toys BEFORE a hurricane so we can actually get info rather than watch them fumble with the graphics.
189. WSI
"I would think that initially the surface temps would cool"

Lots of upwelling there right now due to this storm just sitting there.

In the end my guess is it will all even out. Short term though, there would be a nice pool of cooler water there.
haha....its happens mel. As long as Idol dont team up with Walmart it will be ok. If that happens though they will take over the world.
Cool. I grew up off Overlook Rd. Lived in midtown as a kid.
under ordinary circumstances I would agree Junkie, and sorta do..... but the area near the stream can push a large amount of warm water. Area's away from the stream may cool a little I would think.....
I would think so lennon, but in that area the weater temps out side the Gulf Stream area good bit cooler, and I would think this would warm them a little. Between the GS and the SC, NC, and GA coasts as well as the other side of the GS out in to the Atlantic a little. Will have to see what happens once we get the cloouds out of the way. I think over the next three weeks or so this area will be interesting to watch on the AVHRR SST maps. I have this year and several years prior for the Gulf Stream and the GOM posted in my blog.
Good points all. Geuss it is just wait and see like most of the rest of tropical season...lol
how much energy is Andrea actually drawing from the ocean though? Since its a subtropical system i would think it wouldn't draw as much from the ocean as a pure tropical system
Forget Idol. They should put cctv in Paris Hilton's cell 24/7 I would pay to watch that.
lol bay!!
No Bama, but the winds are still sloshin all that warm Gulf Stream water around, and I am sure outside the Gulf Stream some upwelling is mixing the water and likely cooling it off.

Alright y'all, got to get myself to bed. See everyone later ☺

Nice job pointing out the shear thel!
what winds?!!! lOL j/k
What sort of trends might we expect this year?
Last year we saw system after system ripped apart by shear. What about this year?
later SJ
Nice post SJ. I like the comparison for year to year.
Thanks lennon. It is the second year I have done it. It is pretty interesting to watch it progress through the season.

Sure wish t hat northern blob would make it on shore here. Don't think the Dr's shear is going to let that happen though. Dang it.

Ok, really off to hit the sack! See y'all in the am.
Night SJ
Hoping for some good rain to help put all those fires out, but Andrea is not delivering...so far...

It looks like half a storm - a fair amount of convection on the right side and nothing at all on the left. Bad thing is all Florida and Georgia gets is a bunch of wind to fan the flames.
Thank you, Dr. Masters, for addressing our situation here in Florida. Although I had found it a bit alarming to have a named storm, before the Season even started, right off of my coast, I was even more saddened that this would bring no help for our seemingly "scorched earth" policy that the lack of rain has willed upon us. Even worse, we will see in the next day or two how the increased winds will affect the area.

Good evening to everyone here on Dr. Master's blog; it is comforting to see so many folks keeping up with Andrea. Fresh air and peace to all.
For a storm that is getting sheared heavily it looks like its holding together the same amount of shear ripped albertos center from the convection. the question is how long will the shear last most likely the second it stops it will start regaining power.
I live in Satellite Beach on the east coast of Florida, this morning the smoke was so dense I thought it was overcast. From the latest IR shots, it looks like Andrea is getting sheared apart, and the chance for rain is looking dim.
Feel free to delete this post if necessary, for I wish to cause no harm or bad feelings.

My blog covers the smoke and fire situation in Florida and Georgia. Many folks have helped with updates on the smoke and fire situation throughout the area, especially Rainman32. Feel free to take a peek for the latest updates, and add any that you might feel would be of help. Thank you, and once again, I bid peace to all.
Hey all, good to see the humor hasn't changed much from last year. I was rooting for Andrea to be named just because it was supposedly such an anomaly but I guess it wasn't exactly so odd.

Anyway loved the comments about crow being served with a sauce of foot in mouth and sightings of the "eye", tongue in cheek earlier.

Still here in Biloxi area, gorgeous weather.

Oh yeah, I enjoy the scientific stuff too, won't say I just read the blog for the humor. LOL, by accident I do occasionally learn something.
groundman
Andrea may re-organize a bit tonight during the diurnal minimum, and a center relocation is possible when that happens. Overall, Andrea continues to be very weak. I made an update as of 10 PM on:

Hurricane Warning
aww poor andrea shes exposed xP.... mayb her center will relocate under the new burst of convection?
Either Andrea wil sink or swim...either strengther or weaken


chances:

strengthen- 40%
weaken- 60%

I am probably too hopeful for rain
hi RLennon

long time no see
Hi friend how are you?
Between work and school and holidays, I have had no time for fun.
30.5 N...79.5 W.

Isn't that north and east of where she was earlier today?

Reformed eye? Is it reforming again? Seems like there is one trying to form into that eastern convection.
ok - so heavy gusts here...is this moving or stickin in the south? If staying, I better brew some tea...
Pretty good
Hot as Hades down here and dry as a bone. Would you believe that the land side part of the Hyatt is STILL not open !!
The owner has been locked in an insurance dispute since Ivan in 2004
222. MZT
If simply entering Florida extinguishes Andrea, then it truly was a weak storm. Even depressions usually cross Florida with no problems.
Isn't that north and east of where she was earlier today?

Reformed eye? Is it reforming again? Seems like there is one trying to form into that eastern convection.




It is possible and something that happens often in weak storms.
i been keeping a eye on
this for a few days now and yes you dont need to tell me wind shear is high be come i no that her is what the nhc has to say about it

lol


is generating a swath of scattered
showers and isolated tstms between 65w-71w. A few ship
observations in the region indicate that there could be a sfc
trough in this area of weather. This may be added/brought back
to the 00 z sfc analysis if the data continues to support it.
Farther E...the upper pattern folds into a very broad trough.
Embedded in this trough is a weak 1016 mb low located near
34n39w with a sfc trough stretching SW to near 26n52w. The last
few vis shots before darkness indicate that there could be
another weak low on the trough axis near 28n. Regardless...this
system is weak
Wow that is aweful. I hope they work it out soon.
exactly what I said earlier today but no one paid attention to that. I guess they would rather speculate on where the center is lol
What exactly are you keeping an eye on Taz ?
kmanislander see my post
Ok stupid question time. What is a sfc trough?
With a shear map like this no chance

Link
232. MTJax
DRY AIR PUMP IN ACTION

I have noticed something important about this storm that will affect the fires.

Before this storm showed up, we had a very persistent and very dry air mass over the SE. As this storm has been sitting, the dry air is being pumped out of the SE and sent into the Atlantic.

At first this may seem insignificant, but when you couple that with the approaching front from the West you will see the chances for RAIN increasing all over the SE. In JAX we have had a maximum of about 25% chance of rain one or two days a week. The 7 day outlook is now showing a 30%+ chance of rain every day and most nights.

Even though we dont get a soaking from Andrea, she is setting the stage so the SE can have rain again and put out the fires.
233. MZT
I'm making a call. The diurnal minimum has passed and Andrea is improving again. I'm not sure if it will look much better tomorrow morning than this morning, but I expect it will look at least pretty similar, and the storm will still be named.
It looks to me like lower shear will move back in.
Trough

An elogated region of relatively low pressure, usually associated with a front ( wikipedia )

Fancy way of referring to an area of low pressure at the surface originating from a frontal system.
Andrea is essentially dead if we don't get a new burst of convection soon.
wait till after midnight shes putting on her dress and will start dancing again .
MTJax - I don't know. Looks like a lot of dry air over GA, FL, and eastern half of AL. I don't know that I see it all being removed.
239. MZT
"Burst" isn't a word I would use. But there has been some marginal growth in moisture coverage the last hour.
Andrea is on the way to being a low swirl.

It will soon be back to blob watching
There is still a lot of dry air trying to get inside Andrea.
And no real mositure feed.
weatherboykris come to my blog
243. MTJax
DOC, i think the fires are making more dry air. I dont see it all going away, but in each frame it looks a little better as the brown goes away. The proof is in the rain probibility changes. I think the dry air has been all over the SE for about 3 weeks now with a few exceptions. As the old timers around here say... "drought breeds drought"
The WV image says it all. Dry air everywhere around Andrea. Where is the convection to come from tonight ?

Link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Look similar?(first pic,pretty funny how similar this storm is to allison if she wasnt retired this storm would be called allison they seem to be very similar (slow movers,lastinglong,similar looks) only thing stoping this one from being an alison in sheep clothing is the lack of moisture perhaps that can change with the burst on the se side. Most likely if the shear would stop it would gain back its west side.
Bah ! Humbug !
The cicadas have stopped their shreiking, and still no sign of a cloud.

Good evening everyone.
Hi Pottery

Man this Andrea has everyone hopping today.
Bah ! Humbug !
The cicadas have stopped their shreiking, and still no sign of a cloud.

Good evening everyone.
249. MZT
The dry air will cause problems for a while, and the SW corner of Andrea may not close up before she reaches land.

But there is moisture infiltration reaching northern AL and GA. It's not as bad a situation as a few days ago.

The shear is complicating factor too. But I still think Andrea will shrug through it.

Mind you, I'm only thinking in terms of Andrea remaining a marginal TS through the morning advisories.
Hi Kman. Excuse the duplication. This machine is playing the ass.
Yeah, Andrea is confounding everyone. Thats weather for you. Lovely !
this was forcast to weaken from day one it poped up .
but it is a stromin may and anything can happen with this . its stalled again and might not go anywhere . right now . it just might be a big rainmaker when its done .
Pottery

We need Andrea to dissipate so that we can finally get some rain here. She is bringing hot dry air this way with W winds. The NW Caribbean is bone dry
Andrea is shown as stationary does this affect how this storms future will play out?
Pottery, hope you get the rain you deserve!

"The dry air will cause problems for a while, and the SW corner of Andrea may not close up before she reaches land."

MZT, I'm not convinced that Andrea will "ever" hit land! While heading west, she stopped! Now just meanders and wabbles....... virtually stationary!

It will weaken the storm,LAboy444.It is upwelling cooler waters,preventing intensification.
257. MZT
Ordinarily a stationary storm weakens as it churns up the water and there is less heat to work with.

This is a minimal subtropical storm so I don't think that's quite so true in this case. Plus it's sitting over the Gulf Stream which is a pretty strong current of water that brings heat under the storm.
MZT, I agree the Gulf Stream makes the upwelling a questionable factor.
look at this monster lol

260. MZT
WU has an 11:05 image in. It appears that Andrea has developed a nice spot of "gold" convection again on the east side.

There is also a blip forming on the SW side offshore of Palm Coast, which has been growing since 10:22.

There also are hints that the convection is trying to wrap around the north side.

I'm sticking with my call that the storm is improving... slowly.
Yeah Kman. Bonedry here too. Some ITCZ stuff in the Atlantic, but with the dust blowing over I think we have a few more weeks of this.
Lost 1500 gals of precious water here when a small tree boa fell into the cistern, and by the time I realised what was up, the water was tasting real funky ! The plants were happy though. Had to pump it out and clean the tank !
do you think it is possible for that front to pick up the storm and turn it out to sea before it even makes landfall...i mean if it stays stationary for awhile it seems possible
Andrea may in fact be just West or on the Western edge of the Gulf stream and not really benefitting from its heat content. The increase in convection last night and this morning while it was moving W probably had a lot to do with its then location relative to that heat source. I suspect it may have moved far enough West to be back over much cooler water, hence the poor presentation
I think the storm weakened and is now getting better...that water vapor image looks better....
right on que dinural effect looks like the convection while weak is trying to go over the center agian slight burst on north and se side looks like it still has some life.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/ATL/01L.ANDREA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20070510.0215.goes12.x.ir1km_bw. 01LANDREA.40kts-1003mb-306N-797W.100pc.jpg
Thel, I'm not sure how to read that ! lol
looks like we have "some" convection showing up on the radar.....

ok....Pottery, hope you get all the rain you want! LOL
269. MZT
scCane, I think this has been a useful storm to study diurnal effects. The fact that it has stayed in pretty much the same spot for 3 nights under similar conditions, and is on the knife's edge of TS status, make it easier to sense that "bottoming" at diurnal minimum.
Me too, Thel. Thanks.
And the same to you !
The Gulf Stream is pretty good at replenishing itself - its velocity can approach 2 m/s -- which is astounding.



SOURCE PAGE



Also the storm is near a area of turbulence in the stream known as the Charleston Bump





The Charleston Bump is a deepwater bottom feature 80 to 100 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. The Bump rises from the relatively flat Blake Plateau that lies beyond the edge of the continental shelf off of South Carolina and Georgia.
I just checked a few maps on the location of the gulf stream and in the location where Andrea is it is actually E of 80 W which places Andrea on the far W edge or just W of the gulf stream. If significant convection develops over those cooler waters I would be surprised
its not getting better, its way too close to land right now, if it was 100 miles SW it would have a good shot at intensifying
There is some ITCZ showers between 20W and 45 W in the Atlantic, but no sign of anything but dust coming off Africa. Cant see any weather originating from that area for a while again.
kmani your paying to much attention to surface temps the reason it lost some power is due to shear not temps hurricane eplison stayed a hurricane with temps 70-75 with shear in december the temps now would easly be able to hold a ts together. I think the shear may be wanning slightly for the moment how long that may continue will determine its fate.
I think if the shear dropped it could at least maintain, in its current location.
scCane

Was Epsilon stationary churning up cool water and making it even cooler ?
We got a cloudsat pass of 90L lastnight.
update sub tropical storm andrea upgraded to micro tropical storm lol
I don't think the storm is strong enough to chur up a lot of water and then the GS is a warm river that will keep replacing the cooler water that is upwelled.
I do agree that the increase in shear has played a role in its near demise but water temps are also a material consideration ( IMO )
RLennon
I would agree if I was convinced that Andrea was in fact sitting over the Gulf Stream. Maybe the E semi circle is in part but the Western half looks to be outside the current
like Rlennon said it is fairly weak and not churring up much water while indeed water does play affect it affects hurricanes more not so much weak ts/subtropical storms.
oh forget it - nice winds here in savannah - not much rain - a bit - maybe a spritz (god help the man dying of thirst). But for tonight, let me thank whomever for allowing me to keep my bedroom window open instead of paying the electric company 4 gazillion dollars a month for my ac. Also, thanks for the "oooooooo" sound outside. For a change, we're not choking from the smoke from the fires in waycross and things here are cooler. It's not all about me though - i am sorry for the folks who have lost their homes and are having to pack up and leave (both on this coast and the west coast). Have done it before and my heart goes out to you.

Thank god for open windows and a house that is standing. (oh...and thanks for the mallowmars too...)

I still say it's going north...lol
Anyway tomorrow morning will tell one way or another. Its been fun discussing this though. I appreciated all the different points of view.

good nite all

C U tomorrow
Agreed scCane

287. MTJax
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

ANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A
SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED
BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND
RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.5N 79.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 80.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 80.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
StormJunkie as a great yearly track of the sst for the GS during the minth of may over the last couple of years and it shows how the temp is increaseing ever year.
289. MZT
I'm just hanging around for one more image...
" Because Andrea is expected to remain over cool waters it should gradually weaken .." LOL
Looks like the sheer is pushing the TS activity to the west. It will be interesting to see if she can make it thought this sheer period.
She's becoming more tropical, but dissipating.
293. MZT
Savannah/Charleston radar shows a nice blob of storms coming.
ok - cantore is in tybee...that's it for me. I'm going to bed before i run into him on river street. The guy needs hair - it would make it more dramatic - even if it was a sweep over...

www.buycantoreatoupe.com

lol
Nice Mel
(sorry - i love the guy for dramatic effects honest...)
297. MZT
Hmm, the expansion of coverage that all the images through 11:23 had, isn't supported very well by the 11:51 image.

Blah, I'm not staying up another half hour. It'll be what it's gonna be. I still think it will be there in the morning, that's the overall trend. We'll see.
Well goodnight all cya in the morning.
night y'all - i gotta go to bed before i get too tired - then i'm going to get punch happy and posting cantore websites.

Bitter, party of one...just jealous he's not staying in my neighborhood!
I live in North Florida and it was excessively smoky. This is the first time I can remember that our air quality level was "unhealthy". It rained ash for most of the day yesterday and part of the day today. The smoke cleared out, but came in before sunset with a dark sky with Andrea looming off the coast. No rain at all, just breezy.
Andrea's getting sheared apart, final advisory is likely tomorrow.
Definitely Colby - She's not going to last much longer at all. The center appears to be much displaced from the strong convection.

Still, I think there's another interesting area to watch in the Atlantic. It's the surface trough in the upper right of this picture:

ohh my gosh !!!
the storm willbe thier just as it is slightly displaced but they just dont disapate into oblivion untill they haveinfluence to such as land so witht he blocking going on at present i dont think it is going very far and also think that it ispossible for it to sit thier for days apon end ,but please dont make more of it then it really is !!subtropical low!! The blob of convection in the last posting to the far right southeastern corner is more likey to do more then sit on its duff yaw have a good day . Dew
305. FLBoy
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
500 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

ANDREA CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK PULSATING
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE THE WESTERN HALF REMAINS
NEARLY CONVECTION FREE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD CONSERVATIVELY TO 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE IN
ALL QUADRANTS EXPECT FOR THE NORTH. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS SHOWS 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST SHEAR IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.
THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AND
DISPLACING THE CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST POSSIBLE
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS A
CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IN THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS MAY INTERACT WITH ANDREA IN 72 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF
BEING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
A BIT COMPLEX. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN OPENS
UP AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING REMAINS WEAK. IF
ANDREA STILL EXISTS AFTER 72 HOURS...THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF
FORECASTS A FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN U.S. PUSHING THE DISSIPATING
CYCLONE EASTWARD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.


Our friend Andrea's maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph, with the pressure still at 1003 mb. I would expect the shear and dry air combination to tear Andrea apart by tommorow night or early Friday morning. However, I'm not putting a 100% confidence on this forecast, and I would expect Andrea to either remain at this intensity all day tommorow, and strengthen to 45 mph late tommorow night into Friday morning, or weaken to a subtropical depression tommorow night or Friday morning.
307. MZT
I'll agree there is not as much improvement tonight as there was the previous two nights. Today may be the last gasp, but they will probably keep tropical storm advisories on it until at least 11 AM.
..


WIND SHEAR
309. FLBoy

Wow, Andrea's looking bad this morning.
Andrea didnt re-organize much last night, perhaps a little more convection. I made a full 7 AM update here:

Hurricane Warning
from my half asleep look, it seems the the COC is somewhat decoupled from the convection.

we'll have to watch and see if Andrea can pull a rabbit outta the hat, and and create another COC ENE.........



picture worth a thousand words! shear indeed!
314. MahFL
Some convection is starting to fire again on the western side. The radar looks more lively.
with all that shear, you won't see much on the west side! :)
Great watch here.
Keep on the good work everybody.
Whats with andrea?
Strenghtening or weakening?
Morning all.

Andrea looks ragged and beat. Gonna be interesting to see if she ends up moving down towards the Bahamas and restrengthen a little as the GFDL has been suggesting.

319. FLBoy
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...30.1 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.



Higher winds and lower pressure than I expected.
maybe it will rise from the dead as
it goes southwest?
Pressure dropped 1mb from last advisory. Need the 2nd recon flight to confirm. Drifting southward might provide some short lived fuel for slow strengthening. That being said, the shear is still very harsh.
Does anyone think its kind of getting whats left of its act back together
323. MZT
Yesterday some people were saying that sending a plane into there was not worth it. I think I could agree this morning.
Anyone notice that blob of convection pulling off the South American/C American Coast?
Hey Nash; nice seeing you since last year.....Agree with your asessment on the slight possibility of slow strengthening if the storm can hold together against the sheer over the next 24 hours...To what degree does the storms proximity to the Gulf Stream factor in?
Uh-oh, its time for the blobs again, just picking at ya sporte.
The Quickscat shows that Andrea still has a good circulation so I should think she would have a CHANCE of "coming back to life."
Can someone please tell me what makes a storm SUB-tropical rather than tropical? What's the difference?

--Someone at work has asked me that question...
Morning Ya'll recon is there and reports are coming in: Link
Hey MrP, I'm newbie, can't give a detailed answer but, subtropical basically means it's a cold core system.
Looks like either the new convection is being sheared off or it may be trying to reform the COC east of the current one on visible?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
two Andrea related storm story's......

A boat traveling from the Virgin Islands to Annapolis, Md., sent an SOS on Tuesday I believe, and were found yesterday.... they experienced 35foot sea's and 115mph winds!!!
http://www.nbc4.com/news/13285857/detail.html

Another story, a couple days ago near Charleston, a couple Kayaker's set off with fishing poles and no life vests..... one of the Kayaker's was found, one is still missing....
http://v1.charleston.net/stories/?newsID=142879§ion=localnews

I just have to wonder what goes through these people's minds! Not much apparently!
thelmores....the first story.....115 mph winds?.....sounds like they might have been doing a little crack...the second one....another darwin award winner
334. WSI
GFDL has an interesting end game. Storm pulls off the coast, goes out to sea and tightens up, then turns into a Cat1 hurricane. All while getting close to Bermuda.

335. FLBoy
FAQ's about cyclones.
Thanks homegirl




seems the nogaps/gfdn is about the only models to see a ssw drift.....

course, its so jumbled up, hard to make out anything! LOL





I see no evidence of a new center.... only see the convection being "ripped" from the COC in the circle......

"Posted By: ricderr
thelmores....the first story.....115 mph winds?."

I can only tell you the 115mph value came off the radio.... I cannot confirm that value.... I also was mystified, but that is what came over the radio.......

ric...... this is more believable.....

"Winds in the area that day gusted up to 65 miles per hour and waves rose to about 40 feet, Wadlow said."
Posted By: thelmores at 12:58 PM GMT on May 10, 2007.

LOL Thel, My husband and I got a good laugh from that model pic you put up. They really just have no freaking clue do they?! LOL!!!
MisterPerfect: To make it more clear, subtropical storms are different from tropical storms in a few ways:

1. The strongest winds are located well away from the center of circulation, thus subtropical storms typically have elongated wind fields, and elongated structures. Tropical storms concentrate the convection around the center of circulation, not away from it, like subtropical cyclones do.

2. They can form over waters that are around 73-76F, I would think, but I'm not positive, whereas a tropical storm generally needs waters of 80F or more to strengthen.

3. Subtropical storms never get their surface winds above 60 mph usually, whereas tropical storms can become monsters, as we all know.

4. Subtropical storms CAN transition into a tropical cyclone, if they move over waters that are warm enough for development (77+ may cause a transition, and only if there isn't 74 or less degree water below the 77 degree area on the surface of the water).
Good morning guys,

We'll as expected andrea is still basically stationary and posses no threat right to the florida coast as it remains very weak and very few areas i could find to TS strength my thinking is those winds were found at flight level and most likely are not to the surface.Its movement currently appears to be to the SE very slowly.The only real chance i see this thing strengthing a bit cause right now its dealing with 20-30kt over it is when it crosses the gulfstream on its way out to sea.But this is just a warm-up and should be used as a wake up call to those who have not gotten there supplies and there hurricane plan in place for this season.Adrian

Close-up view of Gulf stream

Ya'll watchin recon?

Highest winds find on RECCO I saw.

Thu May 10 2007
1102 GMT
Latitude 31.1 N
Longitude 81.1 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1017 feet (310 meters)
Flight level winds 10 degrees at 36 knots (41 mph)
Temperature 18 C Dewpoint 16 C
Surface Pressure 1008 millibars
Surface winds 360 at 25 knots (28 mph)
Remarks: AF307 0201A ANDREA OB 03


&


Thu May 10 2007
1247 GMT
Latitude 31.3 N
Longitude 78.5 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 984 feet (300 meters)
Flight level winds 110 degrees at 26 knots (29 mph)
Temperature 18 C Dewpoint 18 C
Surface Pressure 1010 millibars
Surface winds 110 at 25 knots (28 mph)
Remarks: AF307 0201A ANDREA OB 07
MP,

Kori gave an excellent description. And the statement about development over sub-80F water is correct (Kori didn't seem too confident of that statement). In fact, there've been a few subtropical storms, like Ana in 2003, that formed over water as cool as 70F... but that's pretty extreme. And Kori's also correct that the transformation to tropical can also occur below 80F... Ana was over 75-78F water when she completed her tropical transformation.

But I wanted to add that a previous statement that sub-tropical storms are cold core is incorrect. As they are storms "in transition", they usually have a flat thermal field (neither warm nor cold core). Yesterday, recon reports indicated just such a flat thermal field. This morning's recon is showing Andrea to be very, very slightly warm core.
vortex message

Storm ANDREA: Observed by AF #307
Storm #01 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #01: 02
Date/Time of Recon Report: May 10, 2007 11:31:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 30 07 ' N 079 49 ' W (30.12 N 79.82 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35 Knots (40.25 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 053 Nautical Miles (60.95 miles) From Center At Bearing 312
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 038 Knots (43.7 MPH) From 012
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 078 Nautical Miles (89.7 Miles) From Center At Bearing 309
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1002 Millibars (29.588 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 301 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 22C (71.6F) / 303 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 16C (60.8F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 38 KT NW Quadrant at 11:05:00 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT




Sorry guys, guess i need to do my homework.
She does look more tropical this morning but shear has decoupled the upper & lower centers of circulation. She's just not vertically stacked anymore.
This most likely is down to TD status iam really not finding any winds higher then 30mph antleast not at the surface maybe higher at flight level.

Close-up view of andrea with radar and current nhc forcast.

She's just not vertically stacked anymore.

and thus......she dies
"Sorry guys, guess i need to do my homework."

Sorry, homegirl, I wasn't being critical. Just correcting. :-) Sub-tropical storms are always strange beasts that are tough to get ones arms around. By definition they are "in between" storms... so, they come in lots of shapes, sizes, constructions, etc.
Oh, I'm not offended, I am here to learn. I know this started as a cold core system and was in transition, i was just confused. lots of posting and back and forth about this storm. very interesting and yes, a bit confusing, but thanks for the info! I'm sure MrP will be greatful as well.
damn it. Masters got it right...too much shear. As for us Florida folks...we NEED that rain...BAD!!!

That thing is really losing it. My prediction fell apart, and the obvious cause are the NWstrly shearing winds at the top that almost nobody on this blog saw yesterday, and even many, like me, questioned until someone posted the evidence for us.

I wake up, Andrea's not on the other side of the bed...Boo-Hoo.
23 was right the navy site this update and now the winds are olny 30kt
i am sorrythat i haven't been here over the past two days. Andrea looks very ragged on the satellite imagery as it. slowly moves south ward.
shear is only getting less favorable
The sad thing about all this is that andrea has only made problems worse across south florida and basically all of florida in general with the fire stituation.Its pushed very dry air down the state not helping the fire situation.
it's terrible...and the wind won't die down enough for firefighters to get a handle on things...just a big blustery hot winded animal. she should **** or get off the pot...and pick one or the other now! u r right 23, she's only making things worse...
358. MahFL
Skyepony, I think you read that map incorrectly, if Andrea is drifting SW then she is moving into less shear which is more favourable for strengthing.
MahFL, those contours on the map indicate rate of change on the shear with respect to time. The positive values around Andrea indicate shear is increasing.