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Ana, Bill,--and Claudette?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2009

After one of the slowest starts to hurricane season in the past twenty years, the hurricane season of 2009 has exploded with activity over the past 48 hours. This morning, Tropical Depression Four joined Ana and Bill in the Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Claudette later today. Indeed, this may already be Claudette, as morning's QuickSCAT pass showed top winds of 45 mph. NEXRAD radar animations out of Tallahassee, FL, show a small but well-organized tropical cyclone with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops expanding near the storm's center.


Figure 1. Current long-range radar out of Tallahassee, FL.

It's pretty amazing (and a little unnerving) how quickly this storm sprang up. TD 4 developed literally overnight, and has the potential to be a strong tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Peninsula. TD 4 reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. I don't think TD 4 has time to reach hurricane strength, since wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model was moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but it does have time to strengthen into a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm before landfall. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 -5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from TD 4; inland flooding from heavy rain of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.

Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle
Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's heavy thunderstorms are limited to just one small spot near the center. Wind shear appears to have lessened some, though, since yesterday. Thunderstorms were not able to form at all near the center yesterday, since strong wind shear tends to blow a storm's heavy thunderstorms to one side of the storm, exposing the low-level center to view. With heavy thunderstorms building near the center this morning, shear appears to be less of a problem for the storm. Top winds seen by this morning's QuikSCAT pass were about 35 mph. The outer rain showers from Ana should appear on radar out of Martinique today.

Shear is low (5 - 10 knots), and is forecast to remain low for the next two days. SSTs are warm, 28°C, and will warm further over the next two days. However, there is so much dry air around Ana that significant strengthening appears unlikely. Nearly all of the models predict Ana will dissipate sometime in the next three days, though the HWRF and GFDL predict that this will happen because Ana will move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Ana is likely not strong enough to survive an encounter with the big island that the Dominican Republic and Haiti share. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.


Figure 2. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the northwest of Tropical Storm Bill. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Storm Bill gathers strength
Tropical Storm Bill is gathering strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. QuikSCAT data from this morning shows a large circulation with top winds of 35 - 40 mph. Water vapor imagery (Figure 2) shows that there is some dry air to the northwest of Bill, and this dry air is being drawn into Bill's center, slowing intensification. It will likely take another day before Bill can moisten the atmosphere enough to ward off the dry air, and allow more significant intensification.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next four days, then warm substantially as the storm nears the Lesser Antilles Islands. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow Bill to intensify steadily to hurricane strength by Wednesday.

The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models--with the notable exception of the UKMET model--have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET has Bill hitting the islands, but is being discounted since it is an outlier. It currently appears that the trough approaching the U.S. East Coast will be strong enough to recurve Bill before it reaches the U.S., though it is too early to be confident of this. Several of the longer range models show Bill passing near Bermuda or Nova Scotia, Canada.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Claud. has had a definite WNW movement for most of the day. If this keeps up it may even hit al, miss., or LA


Link
wow! I take it that Bill really speed up. Is that good or bad?

Bill- 75mph winds
movement- WNW- 23mph
2003. java162
Quoting jdjnola:


I think so. With his size, he can finally do a better job of creating his own environment. Kinda scary though.



bill looks like a hurricane already!!! they gonna upgrade it the next advisary
Quoting OhioCanes1667:


Why is that funny?


It's not funny, it's a travesty...

LOL and ROFLMAO and "hilarious" are terms also used to mock.

My dissatisfaction with our National Weather Service (and some others in the business) is so pronounced right now that I cannot describe it.

As a nation (and hemisphere), we count on these guys to get it as right as possible.

They got caught eating donuts and reading the paper on the crapper when they needed to be paying more attention.

Okay...so they missed it with the 8...but they continually missed it through the day. That just plain stinks.
Quoting mossyhead:
that should not be a new feeling. sometimes no matter what you do, someone will get irritated.


ok
2008. jipmg
Quoting CaneWarning:


That's true, but at the same time, it is likely this will curve away. This is about the second day I've seen models curving it before Florida.


I think the GFS? Is showing its going to break through the trough though.. and it was an early model release, the rest may change soon.. the speed is just too great imo
do models still forecast development behind bill from that african wave???
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Ike, it really hurted my feelings profoundly to find out this morning that not only did you decide to ignore me, but you also decided to send the blog admin a memo asking him to ban me from Weather UnderGround indefinitely, yet again, that is. WOW, I thought that we were the best of cyber buddies on here, Ike. Geeze, what happened? But, whatever, that's quite alright, because as the following reassuring old saying would go in Spanish. ''Uno recoje lo que uno siembra''. :(


IKE would never do that to you because you are best buds! Where did you hear this???
2011. P451
African Wave Train

I just figured out what TWC means.
Claudette wants to come ashore further west. Pensacola to Mobile is within reason.
Ike, you might get on the East side of this one
2015. drj27
now twc is saying pcola lol wow how are they still on tv
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I guess since we are on the ant subject. My dogs bowl outside would have tons of ants in it if she didn't eat it quick enough, now I don't seem to have that problem. Hmmmmm
i dont have any pets and we keep a clean yard.
2017. jipmg
Quoting hurristat:
I just figured out what TWC means.


epic fail LOL
2018. SaoFeng
the NHC said there was a less than 30% chance... so it was improbable. They did not say it wouldnt form. And this makes up for when they say greater than 50% and it does form. This is why they give probabilities, it shows what the chances are... not a definitive YES or NO
Quoting TexasHurricane:
wow! I take it that Bill really speed up. Is that good or bad?

Bill- 75mph winds
movement- WNW- 23mph



nop it will be has follow

at 5pm update


winds 65mph mb 994mbs
Quoting Michfan:


Looking like between PCB and Destin atm.


As I said earlier, probably the Freeport/Red Bay area in Walton county. Ike - got your slicker handy?
Quoting P451:


Because there is a chance in some people's opinions that it might not get pulled north. They're not convinced and they're seeing something to tell them not to trust a model more than a couple days out on the system.

Since it has the potential to be a major hurricane, if it were to miss the trough or beat it to the coast, someone is going to have a very bad day.

I think that's the general feeling that arises when someone simply says it's a fish storm and discounts it's existence.

The models want it to be and personally I think they're fairly trustworthy with their forecast but it's not an absolute - and if it's not - it's not going to be a good day next Saturday or so.

Remember Bill was to suppose to be Ana a few days ago?Then transverse through hurricane channel ,then be a major hurricane in the gulf.Or Hurricane Ike,how the models screwed up on that one.Dont put much stock in them till the storm is 200 miles from landfall..
Quoting JAC737:
Serialteq -- it hurts when an acorn hits you in the head at 30 mph


I would believe so!
Quoting CaneWarning:


Some of our experts include people such as Drak, 456, StormW, WeatherStudent and Category5HitsNY

Weatherstudent is not an expert.
Quoting jipmg:


I think the GFS? Is showing its going to break through the trough though.. and it was an early model release, the rest may change soon.. the speed is just too great imo


We will find out!
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon,

Hot off the press!

Thanks!

SPECIAL TROPICAL UPDATE AUG 16, 2009 ISSUED 4:25 P.M. EDT


Of all the so called mets on this site..StormW is the man..when he talks I listen
A few rumbles of thunder in Pcola...
TXEER,

Veterans of storms have noticed that animals and bugs know when a storm is coming... ants begin to march and then disappear a few days b4 a storm hits, birds and squirls for days will frenzy feed and then disappear, even dogs, horses, etc, start to pace and get very nervous...animals can sense the pressure change days b4 humans can...and in my opinion, b4 computers
Quoting P451:
African Wave Train



where do you get these gifs?
Quoting CaneWarning:


They give Dr. Lyons like 2 minutes for a tropical update...its crazy. I hate what TWC has become.
NBC bought a nice product in TWC now they are sinking it with changes they have implemented especially wake up with "annoying" Al, very little value and a great loss in credibillity
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

Weatherstudent is not an expert.


Hey may not be an expert, but I sure do enjoy his opinion.
Quoting P451:
African Wave Train



Danny, Ericka, etc....?
Thank you, Storm!
2033. jdjnola
Speaking of the basics, it seems as if someone does not understand the limitations of radar data!

I understand the limitations of radar data well, but a well defined storm will traditionally have completely closed off convection in the radar signature over the CoC. It may not be perfectly over the CoC, but it is closed. Example: Link
2034. CJ5
Quoting Tazmanian:



and commets may be lol


I think it is still there.
Quoting jipmg:


epic fail LOL


Not an epic fail, an epic win, for figuring out something!
We just had a heavy rain shower pass through Tampa. Lots of thunder and gusty winds.
and has for you ANNA you be RIP at the 5pm update
Quoting druseljic:
A few rumbles of thunder in Pcola...


Good down pour here!
Quoting pcolasky:


Good down pour here!


By the sounds outside, it will be doing the same here soon...
2040. P451
Bill really got it's act together today.

Visible & FunkTop



Cloudy but dry here (for the moment)
your jokeing aret you why Category5HitsNY i have nevere seen him on the blogs befor other then a few days ago and i have not seen him
extreme236 - You are being far more patient today than I would be - good for you.
Thanks StormW, always appreciated! :-)
I think it's slightly amusing how people like to add an extra n into "Ana." It's not supposed to be there, folks. It's either a spanish or french name.

Also, other culprits are Edouard, Hanna, Erica, Hilary, and a bunch more.
If you want to be completely honest, the only true "Expert" here is Dr. Masters...
I also value StormW's opinion, and he is probably the closest one to an expert who comments on this blog.
Quoting Tazmanian:
your jokeing aret you why Category5HitsNY i have nevere seen him on the blogs befor other then a few days ago and i have not seen him


Yes, I am joking. He is often in chat and last night he said Ana would hit Miami, Tampa, Mobile, New Orleans and then NYC.
2048. P451
Quoting winter123:


where do you get these gifs?


I make them from the java and flash loops from various sites, edit and compress them, then store them and post them here.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
NBC bought a nice product in TWC now they are sinking it with changes they have implemented especially wake up with "annoying" Al, very little value and a great loss in credibillity


NBC, our current administration's PR firm, is changing the name of The Weather Channel. It is now going to called The Climate Change Channel. When they do it, I'll "change the channel."
2050. Dakster
Stormw - Thanks for the update! Now I can sleep easy tonight.
Claudette is pushing a lot of moisture to us in south-central Louisiana. Yay for rain all week. :p
Bill trucking westward again for the time being.
2054. JAC737
It hurts pretty bad to be hit with the TWC at 30 mph.
why can't everyone just be glad that we have the technology to be able to even watch them and make an educated decision based on what we see? 50 years ago...we wouldn't have even known they were coming b4 it was too late unless a ship happened thru or near one...
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
If you want to be completely honest, the only true "Expert" here is Dr. Masters...
I also value StormW's opinion, and he is probably the closest one to an expert who comments on this blog.

I agree.
2058. TXEER
Quoting tiggeriffic:
TXEER,

Veterans of storms have noticed that animals and bugs know when a storm is coming... ants begin to march and then disappear a few days b4 a storm hits, birds and squirls for days will frenzy feed and then disappear, even dogs, horses, etc, start to pace and get very nervous...animals can sense the pressure change days b4 humans can...and in my opinion, b4 computers


Thanks...I noticed that with my dogs but never with ants.
wow p451 bill does look pretty good, although that type of imaging tends to make things look enhanced, but still certainly looks like an intensifying storm that looks borderline hurricane status.
2060. Michfan
Quoting CaneWarning:


Hey may not be an expert, but I sure do enjoy his opinion.


I feel sorry for you then.
Quoting CycloneOz:


NBC, our current administration's PR firm, is changing the name of The Weather Channel. It is now going to called The Climate Change Channel. When they do it, I'll "change the channel."


Poof!
Quoting winter123:
Claud. has had a definite WNW movement for most of the day. If this keeps up it may even hit al, miss., or LA


Link


shes grazing the coast... hmmmmmmmmmmm

not that good.
hello all just wondering if bills gets very strong could it eat thru any influence that would make it curve out to seas and do its own thing
Quoting Michfan:


I feel sorry for you then.


We could all use the entertainment. Oh yeah, POOF!
Quoting southfla:
extreme236 - You are being far more patient today than I would be - good for you.


Patience is a virtue I wish I had a lot more of sometimes :)
I think that at 5pm Bill will be bumped up to 70mph.
2067. jipmg
Quoting stormpetrol:
Bill trucking westward again for the time being.


and its moving at over 20mph so..
2068. JAC737
P451 - great visual of Bill. Thank you StormW. What's the chances of Ah-na getting her spin back?
africa got lots of tropical lows on land its going to more storm soon.
Quoting CycloneOz:


NBC, our current administration's PR firm, is changing the name of The Weather Channel. It is now going to called The Climate Change Channel. When they do it, I'll "change the channel."


You are ridiculous. I might as well put you on ignore before you start spamming about Xtremehurricanes.com or whatever it is again.
@2040. I hate to say it but Bill has an eye in that animated loop.
2073. SaoFeng
Claudette still at 45kts 50mph... 5pm update
Quoting CaneWarning:


Poof!


LOL...why so serious? :)

And...Here...We...GO!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Bill trucking westward again for the time being.


:/ i see pretty defined NW movement. Looks like a fish... Smells like a fish... when it passes puerto rico to the north I'll taste the fish. We hope others do to.

anxious for it to come and give us some surf!
No problem TXEER...

Heya StormW...glad to see you here today... and to those who do not know...StormW is an expert...took and passed the test and all... even does the climatology for the military... i trust StormW emphatically!
Quoting extreme236:


You are ridiculous. I might as well put you on ignore before you start spamming about Xtremehurricanes.com or whatever it is again.


Yeah, I just did.
2079. P451
Not the most impressive radar signature for Claudette.



Does it seem like her center keeps re-locating towards the end of the loop?
Quoting P451:
Not the most impressive radar signature for Claudette.



Does it seem like her center keeps re-locating towards the end of the loop?


She's trying to miss the coast by reforming an LLC to the west.
Quoting DestinJeff:
TWC: "we think Claudette will go in somewhere between Mobile and Tallahassee area"

in related news, the high for today will be between 20 degrees and 100 degress. just hard to nail down right now.


LMAO...TWC is so awful.

As the day goes on, I'm becoming more of a Mobile/Pcola believer. Claudette won't be able to strengthen much more until she consolidates that inner core, though. Currently, she is having trouble doing that.
2082. Relix
Quoting serialteg:


:/ i see pretty defined NW movement. Looks like a fish... Smells like a fish... when it passes puerto rico to the north I'll taste the fish. We hope others do to.

anxious for it to come and give us some surf!

I think that's convection.
Ana won't make the 5PM cut I guess.
Quoting DestinJeff:
TWC: "we think Claudette will go in somewhere between Mobile and Tallahassee area"

in related news, the high for today will be between 20 degrees and 100 degress. just hard to nail down right now.


LOL
Quoting winter123:
Claud. has had a definite WNW movement for most of the day. If this keeps up it may even hit al, miss., or LA


Link


it was a wobble....she will wobble off and on....shes being bumped by the high....but the main general direction has stayed just north of nw...cmon...def a panhandle landfall of a strong tropical storm..
2086. Michfan
Recon is headed out of barbados.
5 PM out
No change in Claudette.
Bill up to 65.
2088. pcola57
Hello All...Just now getting a storm in pensacola from Claudette leading flow...been a lurker here for a couple of years and never posted...this might be the year i break out of my shell...hats off to all here as i have really learned alot and have found this blog an invaluable tool...i hope "some" of the bloggers can take a step back and look at all the truely unique and and talented pepole who contribute...will post from time to time...gonna head out to the porch and watch for awhile...bye for now...
2089. jipmg
Quoting CaneWarning:


She's trying to miss the coast by reforming an LLC to the west.


she's trying to miss the coast? So now they can think?
BILL

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 40.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 39.2W

65MPH 994MB
2091. jdjnola
Quoting jlp09550:
Claudette is pushing a lot of moisture to us in south-central Louisiana. Yay for rain all week. :p


Is that anything abnormal for us lately? But yes, Claudette is sure to bring some (more) rain.
Quoting P451:
Not the most impressive radar signature for Claudette.



Does it seem like her center keeps re-locating towards the end of the loop?

Radar images can be decieving, but C is going to be further west before landfall - if you're in Pensacola, just put on your galoshes...
Quoting extreme236:


You are ridiculous. I might as well put you on ignore before you start spamming about Xtremehurricanes.com or whatever it is again.


You have no idea what you're even talking about. Ever wonder why I can mention that site in here and not get banned?

{Was that a poof I heard just now?}
I belive the weather reports on here are so good because many people participate. Ofc not everything is on topic or correct, but overall a decent source for information on current weather outlooks and coverage.
Last NHC advisory issued on GUILLERMO
2096. ssmate
Quoting CaneWarning:


Poof!

Why is that a poof? TWC has clearly stated that they have moved their focus to bringing climate change to it's forefront. The Admin. part could have been left out, but TWC agenda is clear.
Quoting lopaka001:


IKE do you see another system just south of Claud aka Invest 91??
I was asking the same question 20 mins ago but no one answered..
Maybe I am looking too much into the latest sat images but it looks like something trying to form just south of Claud..



everything in that image is one system....not 2...
Quoting P451:
Not the most impressive radar signature for Claudette.



Does it seem like her center keeps re-locating towards the end of the loop?


Go west. Watching from NOLA
2099. P451
Quoting BrockBerlin:
wow p451 bill does look pretty good, although that type of imaging tends to make things look enhanced, but still certainly looks like an intensifying storm that looks borderline hurricane status.


Funktop is a pretty good tool. It's the rainbow that makes a cirrus cloud look like a CAT5 LOL.

Quoting weathercrazy40:
hello all just wondering if bills gets very strong could it eat thru any influence that would make it curve out to seas and do its own thing


i "think" the only thing that would make bill veer west again is de-intensification like ana, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon, and a big ol' ridge or sometin. dominant hi-pres area.
Quoting IceSlater:
BILL

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 40.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 39.2W

65MPH 994MB



i was right a a long
Claudette turning west makes sense, since the high will be building in from the east.
What happens if Bill outruns the upper-level trough or the trough flattens out?
Quoting jipmg:


and its moving at over 20mph so..


so, then wouldn't that make Bill less likely to turn north?
Bermuda watch out

2106. Michfan
Quoting Orcasystems:

ANA

Bill

Claudette


Took ya long enough Orca!
2107. jipmg
Quoting serialteg:


i "think" the only thing that would make bill veer west again is de-intensification like ana, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon, and a big ol' ridge or sometin. dominant hi-pres area.


there is a dominant high already in place.. and its strengthening, its pushing our gulf storm WNW
Quoting Tazmanian:
Last NHC advisory issued on GUILLERMO


CPHC starts issuing at 11pm advisory.
2110. Dakster
Can someone please hit the nail on the head of Ana's coffin this time. She keeps coming back to life...

Quoting ssmate:

Why is that a poof? TWC has clearly stated that they have moved their focus to bringing climate change to it's forefront. The Admin. part could have been left out, but TWC agenda is clear.


I poofed him because he's not adding anything to the blog. I'm also tired of him advertising his crappy site here.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i was right a a long


You normally are right!
2113. jipmg
Quoting bluehaze27:
What happens if Bill outruns the upper-level trough or the trough flattens out?


It continues W-WNW

@weather456

stop being a fishcaster
So how likely is it that Bill will miss the northern leeward islands? The storm is pretty far south... and in the last three weeks computer models have not been doing well.. so are the steering currents still relatively unpredictable?
Hi again
News from NHC about Ana:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 162041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.MAARTEN...ST.
MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.MAARTEN...ST.
MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON
THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND ENTER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.1N 58.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
2117. Dakster
Quoting DestinJeff:
need to hit the Midget Roman Emperor ... $5, Hot-N-Ready ... just in case power gets knocked later. cold pizza good for 24 hours.


LOL
2118. TXEER
I have a serious question.

What is it that causes these bands of clouds to come Wstward across Africa on a regular basis from August to October?

Thank you!
2119. Relix
Hey Ana is a depression =P
2120. jipmg
Bill did not speed up according to the NHC, despite satellite saying otherwise
Poor Ana.
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon,

Hot off the press!

Thanks!

SPECIAL TROPICAL UPDATE AUG 16, 2009 ISSUED 4:25 P.M. EDT
Quoting F1or1d1an:
Cloudy but dry here (for the moment)
for the ones reporting live conditions for claudette, please list you location so we know the exact spot you are at please. i am 8 miles east of defuniak springs in walton county in nw florida.
tornado warning in norther lee/southern charlotte county florida. looks like a band from claudette is moving in.
2124. Dakster
Quoting TXEER:
I have a serious question.

What is it that causes these bands of clouds to come Wstward across Africa on a regular basis from August to October?

Thank you!


Trade winds.. Climatology and of course, Mother Nature has setup the Earth to do this during this time of year.

Just got a tornado in Cape Coral. Claudette's presence felt, even though it's a ways off now.
2126. jipmg
I see a small eye on bill via visible satellite popping out
Quoting TXEER:
I have a serious question.

What is it that causes these bands of clouds to come Wstward across Africa on a regular basis from August to October?

Thank you!


the african easterly jet and tradewinds
Quoting jipmg:


It continues W-WNW

@weather456

stop being a fishcaster


There are troughs forecast to come down. It doesnt matter what the high is doing right this minute.
Hitting kinda close to home:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 443 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PINE ISLAND...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF CAPE CORAL...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PINE ISLAND.
BOCA GRANDE.
Ana a depression. NHC track may need to be shifted even more south, even south of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Puerto Rico, which if the storm stays in tact, would not be good.

Also, I do not know if Bill will end up being a fish. It is certainly not a sure thing.
Looks like the folks on the Fla. panhandle need to bring in the garbage cans and patio furniture.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


so, then wouldn't that make Bill less likely to turn north?


Dont listen to mis-information. As of the 5:00pm update Bill is getting stronger, and moving WEST NORTH WEST,14knots;16MPH

How is bill moving Due west according to some of you lmao...


BILLS West movement
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/14. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF EVOLUTIONS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEM
POSSIBLE. THE FIRST...FAVORED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF...SHOWS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CAUSING
IT TO BREAK AROUND 65W. THIS LEADS TO A NORTHWEST MOTION OF BILL
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OTHER SOLUTION...SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS/UKMET...IS THAT THE HURRICANE BYPASSES THE FIRST BREAK AND
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THE END...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HIGHLY-SKILLED MODELS IN THE FORMER SOLUTION.

Interesting discussion. Wonder if the other models might follow the NOGAPS and the UKMET.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Poor Ana.


serves her right, indecent exposure is a crime.
Tornado on the ground reported near Cope Coral.
Quoting iceman100:
Just got a tornado in Cape Coral. Claudette's presence felt, even though it's a ways off now.


Local news just showed a picture of Tornado over Cape Coral Fl.
When does the next Quikscat image show up?
.
2138. jdjnola
Quoting Dakster:
Can someone please hit the nail on the head of Ana's coffin this time. She keeps coming back to life...



Everyone was waiting and anticipating her birth... now everyone is waiting and anticipating her demise.
Quoting Weather456:
Bermuda watch out



Bill might effect the Northeast with that kind of path. Maybe like Gloria.
Mossyhead - assume that's where you are? Niceville here.
Quoting Weather456:


serves her right, indecent exposure is a crime.


Hahaha!
2142. Patrap
Quoting jipmg:
I see a small eye on bill via visible satellite popping out


your seeing a very tall hot tower building right on top of the coc...no eye yet...maybe later tonight...
2144. TXEER
Weather456 and Dakster...thanks for the answers and for not piling on a newbie...I appreciate it...this is a great place to learn.
TXEER...

Basically it is their rainy season...the more rain and big storms they get, the more that come off the coast...it also has to do with the el nino and la nina...they play how much africa gets in rain...also the trade winds... it all combines together to create hurricane season...if africa got its rain from december to say may...we would not have the hurricanes because our water temps would not support the development of such storms...
2147. jdjnola
Quoting Relix:
Hey Ana is a depression =P


...again. Then a remnant low... again? Then a TS... again?
Ana dies again...
What's really odd to me is that by taking the coordinates from NHC at 11AM and 5PM, converting them to statute miles, and dividing the time between advisories, I am getting roughly 19-20mph. Am I missing something?

12.1N 38.4W and 12.8N 40.0W
hmmmmon bill

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THE END...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HIGHLY-SKILLED MODELS IN THE FORMER SOLUTION.
Quoting AllStar17:
Ana a depression. NHC track may need to be shifted even more south, even south of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Puerto Rico, which if the storm stays in tact, would not be good.

Also, I do not know if Bill will end up being a fish. It is certainly not a sure thing.


yeah, even if Ana turns back into just a wave, if she can get into the GOM then she could come back. She already has before.
2152. Patrap
IMO if Bill doesn't go N or NE by 35 N, if its still heading NW, we could be talking about a Landfall in the Northeast. Anywhere from Delaware to Maine.
Cuba waits for the surpluses of Ana Tuesday. Apparently this system will only give something of rain in the Eastern region where the precipitations have been little in July and what it goes of August. They must say in Haiti so that in Bill truth more moves away to the north.
Bill is going to make either a direct hit to Bermuda or brush it closely. Lower 48 states are safe from Bill as it seems now.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hmmmmon bill

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THE END...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HIGHLY-SKILLED MODELS IN THE FORMER SOLUTION.


Yep Taz, Bill may visit Bermuda, but that's about it.
2157. jipmg
Quoting watchingnva:


your seeing a very tall hot tower building right on top of the coc...no eye yet...maybe later tonight...


I was looking at the central atlantic satellite, not the close up, makes it look like an eye , but its really a shadow
HEADS UP CAPE CORAL/PORT CHARLOTTE

Tornado Warning.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hmmmmon bill

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THE END...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HIGHLY-SKILLED MODELS IN THE FORMER SOLUTION.


Also note this, Taz:
THE OTHER SOLUTION...SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS/UKMET...IS THAT THE HURRICANE BYPASSES THE FIRST BREAK AND
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
Quoting Fl30258713:
When does the next Quikscat image show up?
.


bill 7pm
ana and claudette 8-9pm
Finally the pathetic storm Ana should die, but wait where's Stormtrop to say that Ana will regenerate become a Cat.5 hurricane and slam into New orleans?
they shifted claudette's track to the west....a bit...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12. THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK CLAUDETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATING NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
i dont see any turning with ANNA i think she is a open wave
2164. TX2FL
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Large ant mounds in unusual spots precede incoming tropical cyclones. It's been (un)scientifically proven from reports here over the last 5 years.


How relevant is that to inland? We have huge ant hills this month in Dallas in my yard and neighbors too..and little pink lizards like crazy in the house.. Every night I have to pick one up and take it outside.
I wonder if a Tornado Watch will be issued soon.
2166. jipmg
when are the next model runs expected to be
Quoting DestinJeff:


Niceville, northside of Mid-bay bridge. headed to beach house later ... want to wait for C to get in closer, but watchingthe wind for 40 moh


I am very close to the airport in P'cola
So many experts.So little knowledge....It's all a repeat
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont see any turning with ANNA i think she is a open wave


She might be an open wave.
Quoting AllStar17:


Also note this, Taz:
THE OTHER SOLUTION...SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS/UKMET...IS THAT THE HURRICANE BYPASSES THE FIRST BREAK AND
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.




noted
Quoting CaneWarning:


That's true, but at the same time, it is likely this will curve away. This is about the second day I've seen models curving it before Florida.


You sure do put a lot of confidence in what the models are saying with this thing several days out...I am guessing that you will change your tune when the ridge builds back in and Bill resumes a more westward track.
2172. Patrap
Claudette,RGB Image




Ah.Na
Quoting bluewaterblues:


You sure do put a lot of confidence in what the models are saying with this thing several days out...I am guessing that you will change your tune when the ridge builds back in and Bill resumes a more westaward track.


The NHC is also putting alot of confidence in the models. They've shifted their track because of them. Hey, if the experts are doing it, why shouldn't I? :)
Quoting extreme236:


She might be an open wave.



i think it been a open wave from time of this AM
NHC 5pm advisory says Claudette is moving at 14 mph. Seem that way to you?
But don't put too much credence in the UKMET it has been off with this system from the start, I have a little more faith in the NOGAPS but still can't say it is my favorite model so I go with the other major ensemble models.
Quoting BrockBerlin:
Finally the pathetic storm Ana should die, but wait where's Stormtrop to say that Ana will regenerate become a Cat.5 hurricane and slam into New orleans?
If I recall did you not state that the cloudiness near key west was pathetic,yesterday. We all need to understand that these systems are unpredictable.That this is an in exact science
Not you StormW,.......I respect what you say
Interesting. The NHC has Ana regaining TS strength before hitting Hispanola, and then it has her paralleling Cuba and going into the GoM.
2182. jipmg
Quoting yonzabam:
NHC 5pm advisory says Claudette is moving at 14 mph. Seem that way to you?


hey they are saying Bill is moving at 16mph, doesnt look like it to me, and Claudette seems alot slower than 14 mph.. but hey its there word
Quoting extreme236:


She might be an open wave.

According to CIMSS, she's still got some lower level vorticity, but probably not much on the surface.
To be honest, I'm surprised Bill wasn't a hurricane at 5pm judging by the satellite presentation all afternoon.
Stormtrop was a troll last year...dont listen to her! Anything that any other expert says, she goes against it...
I'm just south of the Cape we just got a pretty nasty Thunderstorm here...
Quoting tropicaltank:
If I recall did you not state that the cloudiness near key west was pathetic,yesterday. We all need to understand that these systems are unpredictable.That this is an in exact science


I realize this but do not recall making a comment about the key west system.
2188. Patrap
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm just south of the Cape we just got a pretty nasty Thunderstorm here...


Nasty storms are forming up and down the west coast right now.
Link

Looking more impressive all the time...
Quoting yonzabam:
NHC 5pm advisory says Claudette is moving at 14 mph. Seem that way to you?


No - not at all
2193. P451
12Z Runs...

GFS 168HR




CMC 144 HR


Quoting P451:
12Z Runs...

GFS 168HR




CMC 144 HR




Wow that's interesting.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Nasty storms are forming up and down the west coast right now.

Cane, have you unplugged your electronics yet? LOL :o)
2196. P451
NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG
Quoting P451:
12Z Runs...

GFS 168HR




CMC 144 HR




Ouch.. if that occurs.. then that could cause serious damage to New York City and surround states.
Looks like another good wave fixing to come off of Africa..

Quoting Dakster:


Trade winds.. Climatology and of course, Mother Nature has setup the Earth to do this during this time of year.

i may get banned from here for saying this, but GOD created the world, not so-called mother earth.
The potential for the dry air impacting TS Bill looks higher today than yesterday, but Bill looks pretty good considering. Thoughts ?

Yesterday


Today
Quoting CaneWarning:


The NHC is also putting alot of confidence in the models. They've shifted their track because of them. Hey, if the experts are doing it, why shouldn't I? :)


There is what is forecasted, and then there is what is. We shall see. I seem to remember Andrew was forecasted to catch a trough. Forecasting is still a swag---scientific wild ass guess, and forecasts are busted all the time.
The GFS run would put Bill awfully close to New England, but once again it is a 168 hour run and I would not put too much faith in a model a week out.


Batten down the hatches, might get a little wet and windy in here
By tommrow night some folks will be complaining that the tropics are slow again. Just because bill is going out to see doesn't mean its quiet out there.

What if bill curves soooo much that he does a 360 loop, and goes west right into the east coast of florida? Lol all the wishcaster will jump on this theory now I bet
In Shalimar (near Fort Walton Beach intercoastal) all we've received has been a minor band with light rain and wind. The sun's out now...

(thanks patrap)

See the dry line that is moving south over Alibama? i that will stop it from coming ashore and it will move west.
2208. Skylink
Ok, Ive put up some more web cam and live streams on the site for Claudette. Click Below

Link
2209. TXEER
Quoting mossyhead:
i may get banned from here for saying this, but GOD created the world, not so-called mother earth.


I agree but I'm its not a bother to me when someone uses that statement. Its a general catch phrase and I do not find it offensive.
2210. pcola57
Quoting pcolasky:


I am very close to the airport in P'cola
Westside/Myrtle Grove here
Y'all missed the
NEW BLOG
Quoting dcoaster:
What's really odd to me is that by taking the coordinates from NHC at 11AM and 5PM, converting them to statute miles, and dividing the time between advisories, I am getting roughly 19-20mph. Am I missing something?

12.1N 38.4W and 12.8N 40.0W



What are you using for the lenght of a degree of Long.?
Please remember that the distances between to longitude lines varies greatly by latitude. @ 45 deg LAT, each deg of Long is ~ 48.99 Stat Miles. So every .1 deg of long at that LAT is 4.9 Stat Miles. and if LAT changes then the lenght of Long changes

Here is a simple calculator.
Lenght calc for Lat & Long
Bill is a nice looking system now..

patrap, the post 2188 was very informative. it says more than a lot of words. looking at the ulls, fronts, dry air and the tropical systems. very impressive.seeing bill pushing the dry air. the ull just east of the bahamas, another one nw of bill, the high building north of claudette. thanks.
Panama City Beach, directly on the beach.. its getting windy here
2217. GatorWX
Ok, Claudy is not looking nearly as good now, but she still has time. Moisture just can't seem to work its way north and west around the circulation. We will see however.
banding near the center has diminished quite a bit. Tonight could be a thriller for her, much like it was last night if she's still far enough offshore.
Bill is getting huge. If not already, it should be a hurricane within the next 12 hours. I wonder if it will rival the size of Floyd during a time when that storm was being forecast to hit florida.
Quoting 92Andrew:
Bill is getting huge. If not already, it should be a hurricane within the next 12 hours. I wonder if it will rival the size of Floyd during a time when that storm was being forecast to hit florida.


Big storms don't turn.
Quoting PanamaBeach1:
Panama City Beach, directly on the beach.. its getting windy here


It may go west of you.
Quoting tropicaltank:
If I recall did you not state that the cloudiness near key west was pathetic,yesterday. We all need to understand that these systems are unpredictable.That this is an in exact science

That is just not right. Have a little langitude.
2221. Dakster
Quoting Babsjohnson:


Big storms don't turn.


Didn't Floyd turn just before hitting Florida?
2222. Dakster
2223. flsky
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm just south of the Cape we just got a pretty nasty Thunderstorm here...


South of which cape?
Ana is now moving through, and she still got somthing with her. Gusty winds and heavy rain here.

looks along 60 west. you can see the weakness. and there is one around 40 west.