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Ana and TD 3 take aim at the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:17 PM GMT on August 15, 2009

Tropical Storm Ana was born this morning, when the remnants of Tropical Depression Two made a comeback and organized into the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Ana is the latest first named storm of the season since Hurricane Andrew got its name on August 17, 1992. The two storms have some similarities, as Andrew formed in the same part of the ocean, and also struggled in its early days with high wind shear and dry air. Let's hope the similarities end there.

Ana is struggling this afternoon. After an modest burst of heavy thunderstorm activity prompted NHC to upgrade Ana to a tropical storm early this morning, Ana has run into strong upper-level winds from the west that are creating high wind shear. This shear was not forecast, and it is not clear how long it will last. The shear has acted to drive dry air into the core of Ana, destroying almost all of Ana's heavy thunderstorms. The low-level center of the storm is now exposed to view, something that often foreshadows the death of a storm. It is possible the shear will destroy Ana, and several models (the GFS and ECMWF) forecast this may be the case. However, the shear forecast calls for shear to drop into the low range, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Tuesday. If the shear does drop as forecast, Ana should be able to moisten the atmosphere around it sufficiently to protest itself from the dry Saharan air that surrounds it (Figure 1). SSTs are 27°C today, and will increase to 28°C by Sunday. By the time Ana moves into the Bahamas, total ocean heat content rises steeply (Figure 2), and rapid intensification of Ana is possible, if the shear and dry air haven't disrupted the storm. The intensity forecast models, for the most part, predict a steady intensification of Ana to the threshold of hurricane strength five days from now. The HWRF model is on the strong side, predicting a Category 2 hurricane. The GFDL predicts a weak tropical storm five days from now, but that is because the model has Ana passing over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, something the other models do not predict. In summary, the intensity forecast for Ana has higher than usual uncertainty, and I give equal chances that the storm will be a hurricane--or non-existent--four days from now.


Figure 1. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the north of Tropical Depression Three. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Depression Three forms, could be Bill later today
QuikSCAT data from this morning and satellite loops revealed that the tropical wave (90L) in the middle Atlantic has finally developed a well developed surface circulation and can be classified as Tropical Depression Three. Recent satellite imagery suggests that TD 3 may already be Tropical Storm Bill. Water vapor imagery (Figure 1) shows that TD 3's center consolidated a few hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Thus, the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Ana has been. Ana may also act to moisten the atmosphere in front of TD 3, helping protect the storm from the SAL as it edges farther north over the the three days.



Figure 2. Heat content of the ocean, in kJ per square cm. Oceanic heat content steadily increases for Ana and TD 3 as they approach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Oceanic heat content levels of 90 kJ per square cm are frequently associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: University of Miami.

Wind shear is moderate, 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to 10 - 15 knots on days 2 - 5. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow TD 3 to intensify steadily, and I expect the storm will be at hurricane strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Most of our reliable intensity models strengthen TD 3 into a hurricane by Wednesday. Oceanic heat content (Figure 2) increases sharply just before the islands, so TD 3 could be intensifying rapidly as it moves through or just north of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. TD 3 consolidated farther south than expected, so the track models calling for a more northerly path were probably incorrect. In particular, the ECMWF model, which had TD 3 turning sharply northwestward and missing the Lesser Antilles Islands, was probably much too far to the north in this morning's 00Z run. TD 3 will probably pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles islands on Wednesday and Thursday.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ana is sure tenacious to have lasted this long. Good job really (so far), who knows what she could of done with a bit of time in a toasty environment.
Full SAB readings:

16/1145 UTC 28.2N 84.2W T2.0/2.0 04L
16/1145 UTC 12.2N 37.7W T3.0/3.0 BILL
16/1145 UTC 14.5N 54.9W T1.5/2.0 ANA
See, I knew that Key West blob was going to blow up into a TC... I knew it. You could look at it and tell.

No model support, hmmmph...

We've found out this week how bad models are.

And they're using models to back up their global warming positions. Great. I sure do trust those models that go out 100 years...don't you?
anyone have any microwave or short wave imagery on TD4?
there is a major south westward push by the bermuda high taking place right now.

this high is essentially the key player in bill and anna's track. the models are all currently way off with the intensity and oreintation and movement of this high. Bill and Anna may never see the trough 4-5 days out and may very well make landfall in south Florida if the high keeps digging in.


Florida Residents Stay Tuned to the Tropics .....



Quoting kmanislander:


We'll see what the NHC do but it sure does not look like a TS to me. I suspect the surface low is pretty much gone and what we are seeing is the 850 vort.


The ASCAT showed west winds, albeit not predominant in the southern semi circle. It is evident in the shortwave imagery.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
It is very cloudy and has that tropical feel down here in southern MS. Look slike NHC forecasted TD4 to be TS before landfal at the panhandle. Looks like a lot of rain for us in the next 48hours.
South MS just like South Al probably won't get more than popcorn showers out of this if it goes to the Big Bend area
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update


Active Tropics: TD 4; TS Ana; TS Bill



What do you make of the quikscat pass of Ana ?
Time for your morning joke:

Indians ask their new chief whether the winter will be cold or mild. Since the young chief never learned the ways of his ancestors, he tells them to collect firewood, then goes off and calls the National Weather Service.
“Will the winter be bad?”, he asks.
“Looks like it.”, is the answer.
So the chief tells his people to gather more firewood. A week later he calls again. “Are you positive the winter will be very cold?”
“Absolutely.”
The chief tells his people to gather even more firewood, then calls the NWS again: “Are you sure?”
“I’m telling you, it’s going to be the coldest winter on record.”
“How do you know?”
“Because the Indians are gathering firewood like crazy!”
4511. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It doesn't look to me like it even caught the area she is in. What are you looking at ?

Morning. It would appear there is a burst of convection slightly to the North of the 8:00 PM position. Would you know if a system as weak as Ana could reform a COC. Each run shows the convection to be bigger and slightly North. In your opinion, could this significantly change to forecast track??
Morning....

Looks like 91 has surprised us. I expect it to hit between PCB and Destin at about 50 mph sustained winds. Everyone on the Panhandle needs to make preparations. Bring in anything that may blow, etc.... you know the drill!
4513. P451
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
As usual, great images P451!


Thanks.

Last but not least - Africa WV

I just can't believe how quickly it is building and intensifying its thunderstorms.. The core is now building stronger rains to the west of its center, while the northern portion of the center is now also rain-wrapped, and there are at least 3 distinct bands to its south and east.
4-Hour Radar Loop
I'm going to try to catch a quick nap, lol, I'll be back! I don't know about many of you all, but I've just got a bad feeling this could intensify to be a bit stronger than residents of the Panhandle are expecting...
Quoting floridafisherman:
anyone have any microwave or short wave imagery on TD4?




Quoting kmanislander:


What do you make of the quikscat pass of Ana ?


I dont believe Ana is a tropical storm, just based on satellite imagery but the QS confirmed it.
ty weather456. where can you find images like that? from the NOAA site?
Quoting Weather456:


I dont believe Ana is a tropical storm, just based on satellite imagery but the QS confirmed it.


Looks like an open wave to me
4519. Relix
Quoting kmanislander:


Looks like an open wave to me


A cluster of thunderstorms to me haha.
Quoting Weather456:


I dont believe Ana is a tropical storm, just based on satellite imagery but the QS confirmed it.
She is starting to fire convection again. I think she is a fighter. Anything going on in the SW Caribbean ? Lots of thunderstorms looks like.
Remember Dolly ?. TS force winds but no closed low and Dolly looked far more impressive than Ana.
000
WHXX01 KWBC 161232
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042009) 20090816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1200 090817 0000 090817 1200 090818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 84.2W 29.7N 85.9W 31.1N 87.6W 32.5N 88.9W
BAMD 28.2N 84.2W 29.3N 85.5W 30.2N 86.6W 30.9N 87.4W
BAMM 28.2N 84.2W 29.5N 85.7W 30.6N 87.2W 31.6N 88.3W
LBAR 28.2N 84.2W 29.8N 85.6W 31.5N 86.9W 33.4N 87.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200 090821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.6N 90.1W 36.7N 90.1W 41.9N 84.0W 46.7N 78.2W
BAMD 31.5N 88.1W 33.4N 87.9W 36.6N 83.2W 40.8N 75.4W
BAMM 32.6N 89.2W 35.3N 88.6W 39.6N 81.8W 43.1N 71.8W
LBAR 35.5N 87.3W 38.7N 81.7W 38.2N 73.0W 35.4N 71.6W
SHIP 47KTS 46KTS 40KTS 37KTS
DSHP 27KTS 28KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.2N LONCUR = 84.2W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 83.1W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 80.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Yep, Ana is history and Bill will be waving at the conus on his way by. TD 4 wont amount to much (Bad thunderstorm with som gusty winds).
Quoting floridafisherman:
ty weather456. where can you find images like that? from the NOAA site?


you can find the shortwave imagery here:

you can microwave data here
Okay...where is the complaint department.

I have a depression that's spinning up into a TC and the ingredients for it to happen were all in place yesterday at this time...
On the Navy site - TD4 is Claudette
TD# 4 is getting better organized, the only problem for it not to intensify fast is do to the approximate closeness to Florida. I think it will be between 45-60 mph at land fall, only a little stronger because the shear is low and the waters are real warm.
4528. Grothar
TO: 456
Good Morning. I see you are up early. I just posed a question to stormwatcherCI, however, I would like your opinion if you don't mind. It appears on the NOAA runs that Ana is having a burst of convection slightly North of the 8:00 pm position. Could she be trying to form a new COC and how could this effect her forecast position.
4529. P451
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
there is a major south westward push by the bermuda high taking place right now.

this high is essentially the key player in bill and anna's track. the models are all currently way off with the intensity and oreintation and movement of this high. Bill and Anna may never see the trough 4-5 days out and may very well make landfall in south Florida if the high keeps digging in.


Florida Residents Stay Tuned to the Tropics .....






Hmmm...well I do know one thing - Bill looks to be entering the same deadly dry air environment that Ana had done so in the past. I can't see Bill becoming a major hurricane or even a hurricane really while that is going on. He's clearly training in dry air from his NW it's wrapped around the south end of his inner core already.

Quoting caneluver:
Yep, Ana is history and Bill will be waving at the conus on his way by. TD 4 wont amount to much (Bad thunderstorm with som gusty winds).


and that makes it all well? What about the leewards and Bermuda, and not to mention the Bahamas.
Quoting kmanislander:
Remember Dolly ?. TS force winds but no closed low and Dolly looked far more impressive than Ana.


Oh, now you've done it.

You wrote her off once, she came back, you're writing her off again.. but most of all. You compared her to another female.

Now she'll survive, just to spite you!
Quoting P451:


Thanks.

Last but not least - Africa WV



The wave train keeps coming.
Quoting Grothar:
TO: 456
Good Morning. I see you are up early. I just posed a question to stormwatcherCI, however, I would like your opinion if you don't mind. It appears on the NOAA runs that Ana is having a burst of convection slightly North of the 8:00 pm position. Could she be trying to form a new COC and how could this effect her forecast position.
I wasn't ignoring you. Just don't know the answer so I left it for the experts.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
She is starting to fire convection again. I think she is a fighter. Anything going on in the SW Caribbean ? Lots of thunderstorms looks like.


I haven't had time to look at that area closely but pressure at buoy 42057 just S of us is 1012 mb, not very low. I have to head out now for my golf game but will check in this afternoon.
Have a good day all
04L.CLAUDETTE
000
WHXX01 KWBC 161236
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA (AL022009) 20090816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1200 090817 0000 090817 1200 090818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 54.8W 15.9N 59.0W 17.6N 63.5W 19.5N 67.5W
BAMD 14.6N 54.8W 15.3N 58.0W 16.0N 61.6W 16.9N 65.3W
BAMM 14.6N 54.8W 15.3N 58.4W 16.0N 62.4W 17.0N 66.3W
LBAR 14.6N 54.8W 15.4N 58.3W 16.4N 62.1W 17.4N 65.9W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200 090821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 71.6W 24.3N 77.4W 26.4N 80.8W 27.5N 83.1W
BAMD 17.7N 69.0W 19.4N 75.5W 20.5N 80.5W 21.3N 84.7W
BAMM 17.8N 70.3W 19.4N 77.7W 20.7N 83.8W 22.0N 88.7W
LBAR 18.2N 69.8W 19.9N 76.3W 21.4N 80.3W 28.9N 79.1W
SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 70KTS 79KTS
DSHP 51KTS 47KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 54.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 50.7W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 47.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Still at 35kts, oddly.
CPC Prognostic Discussions
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19550727 - 19910825 - 19780813 - 19520825 - 19880811

Quoting kmanislander:


I haven't had time to look at that area closely but pressure at buoy 42057 just S of us is 1012 mb, not very low. I have to head out now for my golf game but will check in this afternoon.
Have a good day all
Thanks. Just know that tends to be a hot spot.
Quoting Cotillion:


Oh, now you've done it.

You wrote her off once, she came back, you're writing her off again.. but most of all. You compared her to another female.

Now she'll survive, just to spite you!


I take it back, every word LOL
Quoting Grothar:
TO: 456
Good Morning. I see you are up early. I just posed a question to stormwatcherCI, however, I would like your opinion if you don't mind. It appears on the NOAA runs that Ana is having a burst of convection slightly North of the 8:00 pm position. Could she be trying to form a new COC and how could this effect her forecast position.


It should not affect her forecast that much since she is wthin 48 hrs of the islands and there is only so much distance in the islands chain.

Also, Ana can produce sporadic burst of convection but until she can maintain and sustain it, i doubt she will amount to much.
4514. HurricaneFCast 8:28 AM EDT on August 16, 2009
I just can't believe how quickly it is building and intensifying its thunderstorms


Yup. Welcome to the hot, shallow waters of the gomex.
The faster it moves, the better off our panhandle buds will be.

Foxxy my rose
Watch the high tide. Check yer ropes.
so in a weekend we had 3 named storms.

What have we learned?
once again, thanks for the links weather456.

i have a feeling that claudette (td4) is going to be a bit stronger than the NHC estimates. looking real good on radar right now and even the microwave imagery shows a possible eyewall forming , ala humberto.
Quoting Weather456:
so in a weekend we had 3 named storms.

What have we learned?
Anything can and will happen.
4545. Grothar
TropicalStormWatcher.

It would appear your observation may have some validity. It will be interesting to see if this effects the models later.
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
there is a major south westward push by the bermuda high taking place right now.

this high is essentially the key player in bill and anna's track. the models are all currently way off with the intensity and oreintation and movement of this high. Bill and Anna may never see the trough 4-5 days out and may very well make landfall in south Florida if the high keeps digging in.


Florida Residents Stay Tuned to the Tropics .....





I don't see any southward push right now. bill is moving more towards the wnw.
TWC has one of the guys from the NHC on (Brennan)...he said there is no indication we have Claudette yet, but recon will go in.
4548. cg2916
When I saw the NHC page I yelled out loud. TD Four? Dang, when it got active it got ACTIVE!
Says Ana appears to be a minimal TS.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
TWC has one of the guys from the NHC on (Brennan)...he said there is no indication we have Claudette yet, but recon will go in.
\

He also said that they still think Ana is a minimal tropical storm. Hurricane hunters will fly into TD 4 as well as Ana later today.
Think with Ana, might be the fact they've already got burned on her once already.

What you don't wanna do, is say she's a TD on the verge of death, then she blows up again prior to hitting the islands and catching people unaware.

what would possibly be worst for ana?

1)going through the 30 knt shear in the caribean

2)crossing cuba or hispanolia
Will you guys stop saying Bill is a fish storm. It's heading west when models have it heading NW already. Bill still has a decent chance to affect the Eastern Seaboard, it's still 2 weeks away from impacting anybody if any. Models will shift back and forth, soon, I bet the models will shift south again. Dean was forecast to be north of the islands at that same spot, and it went south of there track.
Quoting Weather456:
so in a weekend we had 3 named storms.

What have we learned?


You can never tell what Mother Nature has in store for us
Do not count out Ana yet. Even if she does degenerate, she will head more westward, and into the very warm waters of the Caribbean, where she could strengthen at a good clip
4541. theshepherd

Shep, my friend, gonna be a busy day here on the panhandle! Boats to secure, and preparations to make! I do believe that TS will be knocking on my door. Expect landfall between PCB and Destin tonight...
4559. eddye
reedzone bill still can affect fl
The Pensacola News Journal says nothing about Claudette this morning.

The NHC better hope that it doesn't spin up ala Humberto.

People will be screamin' "Why can't they predict a hurricane one day out!!!"
Quoting boomerang08:
what would possibly be worst for ana?

1)going through the 30 knt shear in the caribean

2)crossing cuba or hispanolia

enough with the polls already... they are getting a bit old and are a waste of space. my comment on ur poll is also a waste of space
Quoting reedzone:
Will you guys stop saying Bill is a fish storm. It's heading west when models have it heading NW already. Bill still has a decent chance to affect the Eastern Seaboard, it's still 2 weeks away form impacting anybody if any.


Actually, if Bill doesn't turn north, he will affect the islands in 4-5 days.
Quoting reedzone:
Will you guys stop saying Bill is a fish storm. It's heading west when models have it heading NW already. Bill still has a decent chance to affect the Eastern Seaboard, it's still 2 weeks away from impacting anybody if any. Models will shift back and forth, soon, I bet the models will shift south again. Dean was forecast to be north of the islands at that same spot, and it went south of there track.

On the last Metsat loop it looks like it is starting to turn ot the NW. That is a sign that maybe the models are correct.
4564. Grothar
TO:StormwatcherCI

Thank you for your honesty. Quite an admirable trait. I am not an expert either, which is why I ask so many questions rather than contribute. One would not like to appear a fool amongst so many who DO know.
Quoting P451:



Hmmm...well I do know one thing - Bill looks to be entering the same deadly dry air environment that Ana had done so in the past. I can't see Bill becoming a major hurricane or even a hurricane really while that is going on. He's clearly training in dry air from his NW it's wrapped around the south end of his inner core already.



Yes, but Anna is sort of moisturizing that area to the West for Bill, so it won't go through the exact same conditions.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

On the last Metsat loop it looks like it is starting to turn ot the NW. That is a sign that maybe the models are correct.


agree
Quoting CycloneOz:
The Pensacola News Journal says nothing about Claudette this morning.

The NHC better hope that it doesn't spin up ala Humberto.

People will be screamin' "Why can't they predict a hurricane one day out!!!"


If you look at the radar, it's doing just that, developing an eyewall.. Come on, lol.. water teps are 90 degrees and it's under an anticyclone, what do you expect?
Quoting Grothar:
TO:StormwatcherCI

Thank you for your honesty. Quite an admirable trait. I am not an expert either, which is why I ask so many questions rather than contribute. One would not like to appear a fool amongst so many who DO know.
Your welcome and I agree. Asking questions is how we will learn.
4569. cg2916
Quoting boomerang08:
what would possibly be worst for ana?

1)going through the 30 knt shear in the caribean

2)crossing cuba or hispanolia

2
4570. P451
Both models curve Bill and still have him intense.
CMC still takes remnants of Ana and redevelops her in the Gulf.
CMC shows Claudette briefly heading due north to the FLA Panhandle.
CMC drops all Africa waves it seems.
GFS drops Ana and all waves off Africa for now.


00Z CMC



06Z GFS


I'm just a lurker but Ana reminds me a lot of Andrew.. How many times did he lose convection and was written off. Besides the fact that she is a woman and you all know we are persistent...
Quoting AussieStorm:

enough with the polls already... they are getting a bit old and are a waste of space. my comment on ur poll is also a waste of space
LOL and Good evening(?) to you.
4560. CycloneOz 7:48 AM CDT on August 16, 2009

and that surprised you? The Journal probably went to publication before midnight.... I will check the NWFL Daily later, it won't mention the storm either, I am sure!

Looks like the panhandle will have an interesting evening... hopefully since the TD is already so close to land it will not have time to get stronger. I expect to see winds around 50 sustained tonight. YUK
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
there is a major south westward push by the bermuda high taking place right now.

this high is essentially the key player in bill and anna's track. the models are all currently way off with the intensity and oreintation and movement of this high. Bill and Anna may never see the trough 4-5 days out and may very well make landfall in south Florida if the high keeps digging in.


Florida Residents Stay Tuned to the Tropics .....









WOW, just what we want to hear !!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm going to be back later

Tropical Update

LINK
Quoting KEHCharleston:
On the Navy site - TD4 is Claudette

I had a look... no Claudette yet
Quoting KEHCharleston:
On the Navy site - TD4 is Claudette


I haven't got it.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/fmhurricane2009/show.html
Please comment, this is a new blog, I hope you like it
Quoting AussieStorm:

enough with the polls already... they are getting a bit old and are a waste of space. my comment on ur poll is also a waste of space


really was a question aussie ....Geez
Again, models may shift south again, it's called trends. It's still a long ways away, models won't nail it that fast, sorry.
4581. Grothar
I have been lurking the Experimental models for many years and it does not appear that the CMC is always that accurate. It either shows 10 category 5's (exagerating, of course) or nothing. From anyone's experience, of these models, which are usually the most reliable? Don't want to waste my time on conjecture.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL and Good evening(?) to you.

Good evening stormwatcherCI and to everyone else I bid you a Good Evening.
4583. hahaguy
I wake up to td4 in the gulf lol.
I here thunder in Southern MS. Looksl ike more and more rain in our forecast and TD4 just going to add to it.
4585. P451
Quoting CycloneOz:
The Pensacola News Journal says nothing about Claudette this morning.

The NHC better hope that it doesn't spin up ala Humberto.

People will be screamin' "Why can't they predict a hurricane one day out!!!"


Pressures are not falling presently however. In fact they're rising throughout the Gulf. Wouldn't we want to see the opposite trend?

Current:



3HR Changes: (even the lightest blue is 0+ rising)

Quoting Beachfoxx:
4560. CycloneOz 7:48 AM CDT on August 16, 2009

and that surprised you? The Journal probably went to publication before midnight.... I will check the NWFL Daily later, it won't mention the storm either, I am sure!

Looks like the panhandle will have an interesting evening... hopefully since the TD is already so close to land it will not have time to get stronger. I expect to see winds around 50 sustained tonight. YUK


This is a worst case scenario in the making, though it will likely be much less than that.

A TC gets cooking on a Saturday, then blows up on a Sunday...then makes landfall before the work week begins.

Talk about a possible nightmare scenario...in my opinion...that's the worst possible.

Imagine if you decided to go camping on Friday...and you didn't listen to the radio.

Or...worst...you decided to go deep sea fishing, thinking everything was hunky-dory in the Gulf for the weekend.

Not good...
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I here thunder in Southern MS. Looksl ike more and more rain in our forecast and TD4 just going to add to it.
I doubt TD 4 will add much to South MS weather other than a few showers. If it goes onshore in the Big Bend area anyway.
4588. Dakster
Quoting hahaguy:
I wake up to td4 in the gulf lol.


Good thing this is a "Dead" season that was written off by so many ppl here...
4589. szqrn1
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I here thunder in Southern MS. Looksl ike more and more rain in our forecast and TD4 just going to add to it.


I am here too.... yep gonna be a wet one for us
Quoting CycloneOz:
The Pensacola News Journal says nothing about Claudette this morning.

The NHC better hope that it doesn't spin up ala Humberto.

People will be screamin' "Why can't they predict a hurricane one day out!!!"
I remember folks at High Island going to bed thinking the next day it would rain. Boy they woke up to a surprise with 80 mph wind, rain and damage! I know many folks got caught with their pant down.
Morning everyone!
I see that we now have three players in Atlantic.
CycloneOZ, are you going to film this?
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I doubt TD 4 will add much to South MS weather other than a few showers. If it goes onshore in the Big Bend area anyway.

Even though TD4 will most likely hit well to our east, it will bring up some of that nice tropical moisture and since it is already unstable out the wahzoo here, you cant rule out a full day of convection. I am not expecting a massive sotrm surge or strong winds but I do expect a day or two of rain.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Okay...where is the complaint department.

I have a depression that's spinning up into a TC and the ingredients for it to happen were all in place yesterday at this time...

I thought it was too. Watched it spinning on satellite and then radar from the very early morning hours yesterday. Then when the buoys had west winds, how could it not be a low? The pressures were not very low but relatively lower than the surrounding area. I guess that's all it takes. I'm no expert but have learned most of what I know from this blog when it comes to these starting.

I have followed the weather with great interest since childhood.

It was a pleasure watching it generate right on radar with this blog. Let's just hope it doesn't do much harm, and brings needed rain to someone who needs it. After all the rain it brought here, I know I won't have to water the tomatoes for at least today.
Quoting futuremet:
CycloneOZ, are you going to film this?


I'm 1500 miles out of position. And PensacolaDoug is celebrating his son's 15th birthday today...so he's out of position, too!

The entire XtremeHurricanes.com team is out of position for Claudette.

Not good....
4586. CycloneOz

Oz, good points! I have friends who left Friday to go to Port St. Joe to do some scalloping.... they are camping. Wonder if they have seen the forecast???
Bill is larger than ana so he can take more dry air. Tiny TS ana can't take that much dry air, but it is heading into a more favorable environment. TD4, I think with the hot waters of the GOM, I think it will be a mod to strong TS Claudette.
4598. Relix
Ana is having a heart attack. Seems she no longer can fight. Bill will have to fight whatever remains.... and IMO he won't make it as well. Probably a minimal TS at best.
OZ, I'm going to be driving the coast this evening, not by choice... but I will have cameras and video equipment with me.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'm 1500 miles out of position. And PensacolaDoug is celebrating his son's 15th birthday today...so he's out of position, too!

The entire XtremeHurricanes.com team is out of position for Claudette.

Not good....
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Even though TD4 will most likely hit well to our east, it will bring up some of that nice tropical moisture and since it is already unstable out the wahzoo here, you cant rule out a full day of convection. I am not expecting a massive sotrm surge or strong winds but I do expect a day or two of rain.
I guess it is always possible. I just don't see it. Not enough with it IMO. You could be right though. I could use the rain myself...lol
Quoting CycloneOz:


This is a worst case scenario in the making, though it will likely be much less than that.

A TC gets cooking on a Saturday, then blows up on a Sunday...then makes landfall before the work week begins.

Talk about a possible nightmare scenario...in my opinion...that's the worst possible.

Imagine if you decided to go camping on Friday...and you didn't listen to the radio.

Or...worst...you decided to go deep sea fishing, thinking everything was hunky-dory in the Gulf for the weekend.

Not good...
I have a tendency not to watch the news on the weekend or even have the TV on. I think I am not alone on this. Weekends are my get away from the world days. I am keeping up with the tropics this weekend but have looked at little local or national news.
just woke up to to TD 4..... I live in Panama City.... some of yall called this right yesterday!
TD#4 will be hitting the panhandle of Florida by 4 or 5pm. By then it should be claudette.
4605. P451
3DAY Accumulated QPF

I really don't get the pressure readings. Radar shows that bands are wrapping into the center of the depression. Dr. Lyons of the TWC says he doesn't expect the depression to strengthen all that much like the NHC thinks. He said a sign he sees is that the storms are not wrapping around on the northern side of the circulation which would indicate strengthening. I would have to ask me if he is seeing the same Tampa, FL radar as I am? Bands are wrapping into the west side of the circulation as well as southern and eastern sides. The northern circulation area is showing signs of organizing more, but there are no bands wrapping around on that side at this time. Eyewall could be forming. Don't be fooled by the weaker returns near its center, because there are large echoes on the eastern side of the storm between the Tampa, FL radar and the storm's center perhaps blocking it.
4607. TomSal
Quoting P451:
Both models curve Bill and still have him intense.
CMC still takes remnants of Ana and redevelops her in the Gulf.
CMC shows Claudette briefly heading due north to the FLA Panhandle.
CMC drops all Africa waves it seems.
GFS drops Ana and all waves off Africa for now.


00Z CMC



06Z GFS


Quoting Beachfoxx:
OZ, I'm going to be driving the coast this evening, not by choice... but I will have cameras and video equipment with me.


It's email time...
looks like Bill is now moving WNW
4611. srada
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?
4612. jdjnola
Quoting reedzone:
Will you guys stop saying Bill is a fish storm. It's heading west when models have it heading NW already. Bill still has a decent chance to affect the Eastern Seaboard, it's still 2 weeks away from impacting anybody if any. Models will shift back and forth, soon, I bet the models will shift south again. Dean was forecast to be north of the islands at that same spot, and it went south of there track.


Exactly. People forget between seasons that storms in specific and weather in general both have a pattern of behaving unexpectedly.
Quoting tharpgomex:
just woke up to to TD 4..... I live in Panama City.... some of yall called this right yesterday!

Dont ever take your eye off of anything in ther gulf.
Quoting CaribBoy:
looks like Bill is now moving WNW


Yup.
Anybody thats lived in the FL panhandle for more than 20 years give Claudette nothing more than a passing glance
Monster... lol
4617. cg2916
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?

Major hurricane.
Major
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?


Wind speed is greater than 110 - see the table describing the chart
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?


Major hurricane
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?


The key tells you it means Major Hurricane
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?


Major Hurricane
4623. jdjnola
Quoting DestinJeff:


Bill looks headed NNW


I would say WNW, just looks like he's becoming more symmetric to the north. He's had a flattop the last couple days.
Yeah right!??? LOL Live in the panhandle long enough and you prepare for the worst and hope for the best! I remember too many times when folks were caught off guard!
Quoting fldude99:
Anybody thats lived in the FL panhandle for more than 20 years give Claudette nothing more than a passing glance
4625. Relix
Bill is moving WNW... but even then he's south of forecast points. He will have to do that NNW turn which I don't see happening soon.
000
WHXX01 KWBC 161309
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1309 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1200 090817 0000 090817 1200 090818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 37.7W 12.8N 40.8W 13.6N 44.0W 14.2N 46.9W
BAMD 11.9N 37.7W 12.8N 40.4W 13.8N 43.2W 14.9N 45.9W
BAMM 11.9N 37.7W 12.6N 40.9W 13.2N 44.1W 13.9N 47.0W
LBAR 11.9N 37.7W 12.5N 40.4W 13.3N 43.6W 14.0N 46.8W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 69KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 59KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200 090821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 49.6W 16.7N 54.4W 20.3N 59.9W 23.5N 64.4W
BAMD 15.9N 48.6W 18.5N 53.7W 21.8N 58.6W 25.9N 62.6W
BAMM 14.5N 49.6W 16.6N 54.1W 20.3N 58.9W 24.1N 63.2W
LBAR 14.4N 50.1W 16.0N 56.2W 19.7N 60.2W 23.7N 63.5W
SHIP 85KTS 98KTS 97KTS 91KTS
DSHP 85KTS 98KTS 97KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 33.3W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

Bill strengthens. Around 55mph.

Also dropped 5mb.

It's on the path...
Looks like Ana will miss the next tropical forecast point to the south. Mabey will traverse through the caribbean and wont interact with land after all.
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?

I guess the "M" means Major Hurricane
4629. srada
Quoting BenBIogger:


Major Hurricane


this will be the one I will be watching..that cone dosent look like a recurve to me..in fact it look like it dropped south since the 11:00 advisory last night
4630. cg2916
There seems to be a burst of convection in front of Ana. Maybe an attempt to moisten the air? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Quoting homegirl:
Bouy data from earlier, as 91L passed over the FL Keys, showed a wind shift (with W winds) consistent with a passing low.

Since then the radar, CIMSS vort maps, SSTs, anticyclone forming overhead, all lead me to believe we could see TD04 by 5am.


Claudette by 11am
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?
I think it is for major hurricane.
4633. eddye
billl going to fl due to the bermuda high breaking news bill going to florida
4634. P451
4606. I don't understand it either but the pressure are high and actually rising throughout the region. This could change but this system doesn't have all that much room. If all goes great for the system what could we possibly get here? 70mph TS? Given the high and rising pressures and the lack of real estate could we get more than a 55mph TS realistically?

I know there's a lot of fuel out there but something isn't right overall. That pressure situation is confusing at best.

Claudette - RGB Enhanced Day/Night Visible




..and again, the current pressure:



3HR Pressure Changes (scale: lightest blue is still a 0-1MB rise in 3 hours.)



Surface Wind Streamlines:

4635. srada
Thanks everyone!
4636. Relix
Ana is also moving entirely to the west, no WNW turn at all.
{{{Foxx}}} Well said- I'm not worried about TD4 too much- but it only takes one good rain band to knock over patio furniture and ruin a window. Hope all stays above the status quo over your way :)
4638. P451
Quoting DestinJeff:


Bill looks headed NNW


Look at that dry air entraining into the core from the NW. That's likely to halt any quick strengthing.
Quoting srada:
Link

Good morning everyone..

What does the "M" mean on the tracking from NHC?

M = Major Hurricane
Steve Lyons on TWC just pointed out that the thunderstorms in the north of TD4 are racing off to the north faster than the center. He said that this is a sign that TD4 is NOT consolidating. Interesting.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
4541. theshepherd

Shep, my friend, gonna be a busy day here on the panhandle! Boats to secure, and preparations to make! I do believe that TS will be knocking on my door. Expect landfall between PCB and Destin tonight...
Yup. It mucked up Sugarloaf yesterday. Fishing sucks. Kayak still on the floor in the motel room. Power sleeping with A/C on high. Heading to the back country in a bit.

Closest buoy to TD4. The low is about a 1012 mb. Strongest winds (25 kt) displaced to the NW of the centre by about 50 mi. Link
"Fish" storms as some of you folks call them are not meaningless. They have a profound effect on maritime interest. I was always told they where "ship" storms until I started reading this blog.
IMHO on 11am advisory's 5 day map they will show Bill making his turn & going out to sea. I just see me myself Bill as a fish storm. Sorry not trying to leave out the islanders I hope the best for ya'll but Bill won't be effecting the lower 48.Ya'll can hold me to my forecast and I'm willing to eat crow but I doubt It'll be on MY menu.
Subtropical ridge (Wikipedia)
...The ENSO climate cycle can displace the subtropical ridge, with La Niñas allowing for a more northerly axis for the ridge, while El Niños show flatter, more southerly ridges....
...In the Atlantic basin, the subtropical ridge position tends to lie about 5 degrees farther south during El Niño years, which leads to a more southerly recurvature for tropical cyclones during those years....

MJO
Quoting eddye:
billl going to fl due to the bermuda high breaking news bill going to florida


lol
Yachts and other small craft are sailing past Dominica southwards since yesterday to be out of harms way. The harbour of Prince Rupert bay here is empty of yachts this morning.
TD4 That wasn't expected. Wow that was fast, on track to be Claudette.
HWRF Makes Bill a Super Cat5 at 120 hrs out.

just before making the over predicted Northward recurvature
which may not take place at all without help from HAARP.
The Highs orientation is wrong and the troughs movement is
over done in virtually every model so far.

if the highs were to bridge on the backside of the trough
bill may get trapped which could make for a slightly different
forecast late next week

Cat5 Bill in 120 hours might be a watcher.


{{{Mandy}}} Yep, better to be safe, ready and alert than SORRY!
Alberto always come in mind when someone "blows off" a storm... the GOM turned blood red.... it was freakish!
Quoting MandyFSU:
{{{Foxx}}} Well said- I'm not worried about TD4 too much- but it only takes one good rain band to knock over patio furniture and ruin a window. Hope all stays above the status quo over your way :)
You could argue Ana looks better now than earlier
Bill well to the north of the forecast dots.
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
HWRF Makes Bill a Super Cat5 at 120 hrs out.

just before making the over predicted Northward recurvature
which may not take place at all without help from HAARP.
The Highs orientation is wrong and the troughs movement is
over done in virtually every model so far.

if the highs were to bridge on the backside of the trough
bill may get trapped which could
make for a slightly different forecast.

in other news Anna is dead but Cat5 Bill in
120 hours might be a watcher.




Interesting. Bill is still one to watch for the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, and the East Coast.
Quoting P451:
4606. I don't understand it either but the pressure are high and actually rising throughout the region. This could change but this system doesn't have all that much room. If all goes great for the system what could we possibly get here? 70mph TS? Given the high and rising pressures and the lack of real estate could we get more than a 55mph TS realistically?

I know there's a lot of fuel out there but something isn't right overall. That pressure situation is confusing at best.

Claudette - RGB Enhanced Day/Night Visible




..and again, the current pressure:



3HR Pressure Changes (scale: lightest blue is still a 0-1MB rise in 3 hours.)



Surface Wind Streamlines:


TD4 hasn't been named Claudette yet
Whats TD 04's TCGM? (Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message)
Heya Foxx - for once, I'm in position. Just gonna have to wait and see if I need to call the office and tell them I won't be in NOLA on Monday morning.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I had a look... no Claudette yet
It was there at 8:30, but you are right, not there now.

@8:30am Eastern

2009 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball04L.CLAUDETTE
green ball03L.BILL
green ball02L.ANA

East Pacific
green ball10E.GUILLERMO

Central Pacific

West Pacific
green ball95W.INVEST
green ball94W.INVEST
green ball01C.MAKA

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
I know what Steve Lyons said, but I am seeing bands wrapping into its center from the west, east and south. Also the northern side of circulation could be small as well.
4659. Thaale
Quoting Relix:
Bill is moving WNW... but even then he's south of forecast points. He will have to do that NNW turn which I don't see happening soon.
What are you talking about? He's N of the forecast points, at least as far as the major models and certainly the NHC forecast track. Last night they projected him to dip from 11.3 to 11.2. Instead he was at 11.4 at the next advisory. And he keeps turning more N.

As for NNW, please. No model had him moving NNW until five-seven days from now.
Ana is about to pass through, or just north of, a pocket of notably higher oceanic heat content.

OHC (from yesterday)
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
TD4 That wasn't expected. Wow that was fast, on track to be Claudette.
Several bloggers here were tracking it for over two days. That's why I read this blog. It gives me an extra day or two to prepare just in case.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
"Fish" storms as some of you folks call them are not meaningless. They have a profound effect on maritime interest. I was always told they where "ship" storms until I started reading this blog.
Yup...That's what happens when too many spend too much time in an armchair and like to include "cool" words in their vocabulary.
4663. jdjnola
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Bill well to the north of the forecast dots.


Let the turn vs wobble debate begin!
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Whats TD 04's TCGM? (Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message)


Link
Quoting AllStar17:
You could argue Ana looks better now than earlier

I know, theres a big burst of convection that formed where the exposed center was.


Folks in the panhandle prepare now for something that will be weaker than a typical afternoon t-storm! My goodness some people on here like to hype. I woke up to an email from a blogger about rapidly strengthening Claudette. We don't even have a Claudette to rapidly strengthen.
4667. A4Guy
looks like Bill's COC relocated north under the deeper convection...tough to be certain, tho.
Hey Buddy,

Long time no see! Glad you are home to help the family. Really don't expect too much, but I'd rather be READY than to be caught off guard.
Quoting F1or1d1an:
Heya Foxx - for once, I'm in position. Just gonna have to wait and see if I need to call the office and tell them I won't be in NOLA on Monday morning.
4669. P451
MODIS captures the African wave at 0E

The Leeward Islands and points NW should not let their guard down with Bill, as things are bound to change, like always
I think its Claudette on the backup navy site.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Bill well to the north of the forecast dots.


Yeah, this one is for the fishes.
Beachfoxx...you've got mail
4674. jdjnola
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Several bloggers here were tracking it for over two days. That's why I read this blog. It give me an extra day or two to prepare just in case.


I said yesterday the GoM was making me uneasy and I wasn't lying. I was wrong with almost every prediction last year, but have so far been right with almost every prediction this year.
Quoting theshepherd:
Yup...That's what happens when too many spend too much time in an armchair and like to include "cool" words in their vocabulary.
Well if you're insinuating, I'm acting highbrow or mindful, well I reckon I'll take that as a compliment. Sorry your fishing yesterday was washed-out. Looks like clear skies for the Keys today.
Watch out Bermuda.

Good morning everyone. It looks like the wave we were watching developed into troopical storm 4.
TD4..soon to be Claudette(?)...not causing impact to commercial aviation at this time due to low cloud tops. PIREPS are only a few tops above FL300, typical of tropical activity. No major disruption planned for panhandle at this time, mostly due to location of landfall with no major airports in vcnty and slow Sunday traffic
4679. A4Guy
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
HWRF Makes Bill a Super Cat5 at 120 hrs out.

just before making the over predicted Northward recurvature
which may not take place at all without help from HAARP.
The Highs orientation is wrong and the troughs movement is
over done in virtually every model so far.

if the highs were to bridge on the backside of the trough
bill may get trapped which could
make for a slightly different forecast.

Cat5 Bill in 120 hours might be a watcher.




Ummm...wouldn't the meteorologists at the NHC...you know, the ones with the Doctorate in meteorology...pick up on that and reflect it in their forecast and/or discussion?
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yeah, this one is for the fishes.


Don't jump to conclusions that quickly
ana right on target for the butterfly island
4682. P451
Quoting Progster:

Closest buoy to TD4. The low is about a 1012 mb. Strongest winds (25 kt) displaced to the NW of the centre by about 50 mi. Link


There is just nothing impressive to suggest that TD4/Claudette is going to intensify much.

4683. java162
Quoting islandblow:
Yachts and other small craft are sailing past Dominica southwards since yesterday to be out of harms way. The harbour of Prince Rupert bay here is empty of yachts this morning.



where you from?
Quoting CaneWarning:
Folks in the panhandle prepare now for something that will be weaker than a typical afternoon t-storm! My goodness some people on here like to hype. I woke up to an email from a blogger about rapidly strengthening Claudette. We don't even have a Claudette to rapidly strengthen.


Cane, those waters are HOT and I mean HOT, and TD4 is small. We could see a Humberto. They thought it was going to be 'nothing more than a thunderstorm'. Than wack! Category 1 landfall.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
I think its Claudette on the backup navy site.

Link plz
looks like the islands and florida are in the clear. Why it the ukmet being so persistent with a wnw track though?
Quoting jdjnola:


Let the turn vs wobble debate begin!



GOOD WARNING!
X2 It must be on that path for 3 hour for it to even be considered a change in direction. I am staying off the blogg till tonight. Let the battle begin!
Dr. Masters' update shall be interesting to say the least!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Link plz

I don't have it. Either its on the backup site or he was making it up to mess with us.
Quoting Cotillion:


Link


Thanks.=
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Interesting. Bill is still one to watch for the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, and the East Coast.


Unfortunately, Bill may be this year's Katrina or Andrew, in damage terms.

He definitely looks impressive already and covers a large area.
4693. jdjnola
Quoting A4Guy:
looks like Bill's COC relocated north under the deeper convection...tough to be certain, tho.


That's what I'm thinking. Trochoidal motions. "Because of this effect, forecasters use a longer term (6 to 24 hours) motion to help forecast tropical cyclones, which acts to smooth out such wobbles." (see link for source)
4695. Walshy
Quoting AllStar17:
Dr. Masters' update shall be interesting to say the least!



No update on Sunday. I think it is because of church or something...
surfer storm beje
Quoting AussieStorm:

Link plz
I saw it there earlier too but not there now.
Quoting Walshy:



No update on Sunday. I think it is because of church or something...


I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters
4699. IKE
Ana looks likely to be downgraded to me. Just not much circulation left. Looks like a large, impressive tropical wave, moving west.

Bill looks like it will go NE of the islands and be a threat to Bermuda.

TD4/Claudette ?, looks like a rainmaker for the panhandle. Maybe some gusty winds.
4700. sfla82
I wake up this morning and S. Fla is in the clear again! RIP Ana..... If she makes it she is going way south and with Bill everyone thought this ridge would build in and push Bill west....well Bill is already moving NW and is already north of the NHC projected track. So everyone thought i was crazy for calling S Fla in the clear and 24 hours later we are still in the clear!!!
Quoting HurricaneKyle:

I don't have it. Either its on the backup site or he was making it up to mess with us.

i've had a look at both sites and still has 04L .Four
Quoting CaneWarning:
Folks in the panhandle prepare now for something that will be weaker than a typical afternoon t-storm! My goodness some people on here like to hype. I woke up to an email from a blogger about rapidly strengthening Claudette. We don't even have a Claudette to rapidly strengthen.


Exactly..when you get that feeling in the pit of your stomach you know..just as well as any experienced met-you just can feel it when you've been around long enough
Claudette will strengthen rapidly after reaching 50MPH. A well defined anticyclone is currently over, providing good upper level divergence.
Unfortunatley it is still too early to tell what is going to happen with these systems. Let's just hope Ana fizzles completely and Bill curves out to sea without affecting any land.
Foxx- I was thinking Alberto too. Doubt we get much of anything (I'll be happy with an inch of rain!) but we are under a flood watch and in Tallahassee the flood is as bad as the wind could be. If nothing else this is a "gentle" reminder that it is mid-August and nothing is off limits!
Good Morning everyone,

I live in the Tampa Bay area. Does anyone have the latest info on TD 04? Thanks.

4707. java162
Quoting bajelayman2:


Unfortunately, Bill may be this year's Katrina or Andrew, in damage terms.

He definitely looks impressive already and covers a large area.


i don't think so.... it appears bill will be a fish storm.. it is already moving nothward..
Quoting Walshy:



No update on Sunday. I think it is because of church or something...


I forget some people go to church these days. I don't know a single person who goes unless there is a wedding or funeral!
Simple, the UK Met might actually be right.

At this stage no one 'knows' where the storm is going.

The only 'virtual' certainty is that it will be a major hurricane with serious destruction on whatever comes into its path.
Quoting Walshy:



No update on Sunday. I think it is because of church or something...


No - "I'll have an update Sunday. Jeff Masters "
See Saturday's update (at the end)
Bill looks like due W to me right now. those long range forecast models past 3 day are iffy. They usually are. Thats what any good met will tell you.
I think people are being deceived by Bill's motion because it is wrapping that big band of convection to the north around its center, thus causing uncertainty in the motion
4714. P451
Lightning out of Barbados




Link


Radar Mosaic for the Antillies:




Link

4715. Walshy
Quoting futuremet:
Claudette will strengthen rapidly after reaching 50MPH. A well defined anticyclone is currently over, providing good upper level divergence.



Conditions are good, but I think it will move over land fast before it tries to pull a Humberto.
Anyone here think that TS Ana, IF it makes it to the GOM, could regenerate once it hits those unobstructed warm SST's?
4717. sfla82
Quoting bajelayman2:


Unfortunately, Bill may be this year's Katrina or Andrew, in damage terms.

He definitely looks impressive already and covers a large area.


LOL...No it wont....It would have to hit land first and right now the only land in danger is Bermuda.
4718. Hhunter
Quoting CaneWarning:


I forget some people go to church these days. I don't know a single person who goes unless there is a wedding or funeral!
that is to bad
Your right Allstar
hurricanejunkie, you have mail
So let me get this straight on the general feeling of the blog.

Ana is (again apparently) going to dissipate.

Bill was hype and is going out to sea.
(wasn't Ike called 'hype'?)

TD4/Claudette is going to be nothing more than a thunderstorm even though SST's are some of the hottest on Earth. Never know, think of Humberto.

:)
4722. Walshy
Quoting LAnovice:


No - "I'll have an update Sunday. Jeff Masters "
See Saturday's update (at the end)



hahaha sarcasm at its finest.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
So let me get this straight on the general feeling of the blog.

Ana is (again apparently) going to dissipate.

Bill was hype and is going out to sea.
(wasn't Ike called 'hype'?)

TD4/Claudette is going to be nothing more than a thunderstorm even though SST's are some of the hottest on Earth. Never know, think of Humberto.

:)


You've got it!
Quoting Walshy:



Conditions are good, but I think it will move over land fast before it tries to pull a Humberto.


The reason I say 50MPH, is because it should have sufficient convection around its center to allow it to consolidate effectively. Inflow would be abundant in all channels.
I am going to tropics chat, wanna join
4726. P451
Quoting futuremet:
Claudette will strengthen rapidly after reaching 50MPH. A well defined anticyclone is currently over, providing good upper level divergence.


I'd like to see a pressure drop though - not pressures rising throughout the region - before I felt that TD4/Claudette were to rapidly intensify.

Something just isn't there for it right now.

Pressures rising anywhere from 0.5 to 1.5MB the past 3 hours throughout the region.

Quoting morningmisty:
Good Morning everyone,

I live in the Tampa Bay area. Does anyone have the latest info on TD 04? Thanks.


your in the clear
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Interesting. Bill is still one to watch for the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, and the East Coast.


Dont think even the islands should have issues with bill.EURO is a great model in the tropics and called this recurve days ago.As of 12z bill is already moving wnw.
Quoting hurricane23:


Dont think even the islands should have issues with bill.EURO is a great model in the tropics and called this recurve days ago.As of 12z bill is already moving wnw.


Here fishy fishy fishy.
Quoting CaneWarning:


You've got it!


It appears so rofl.

We have absolutely no idea where Ana or Bill is going to go or the strength of all 3 systems.

I know though TD4/Claudette will make the second US landfall this year. (First amazingly went to TD Felicia on Hawaii)
4731. Hhunter
Bill is a scary player...potential to be the east coast disaster storm to which joe bastardi refers
4732. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
So let me get this straight on the general feeling of the blog.

Ana is (again apparently) going to dissipate.

Bill was hype and is going out to sea.
(wasn't Ike called 'hype'?)

TD4/Claudette is going to be nothing more than a thunderstorm even though SST's are some of the hottest on Earth. Never know, think of Humberto.

:)


I sense a hint of sarcasm in your post...

How about Ana is weakening, could regenerate or not.

Bill - Models say it is now gonna go North. Still have watch since it is a week or so more from CONUS.

TD4 - LOOKOUT... Run for the hulls. Whether it becomes a Cat1 or not, looks like alot of wind and rain regardless.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
4733. P451
Quoting HurricaneKyle:

I don't have it. Either its on the backup site or he was making it up to mess with us.


Nobody is messing with you guys. Navy site had Claudette. Weather456 saw it and posted it earlier as well if that would suit your interests.

It was listed as Claudette and then they changed it back to 04L. Why, I don't know.

Nobody is throwing the name out there without just cause. It was there.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Well if you're insinuating, I'm acting highbrow or mindful, well I reckon I'll take that as a compliment. Sorry your fishing was washed-out. Looks like clear skies for the Keys today.
Nope... My bad if that came across wrong, I was not reffering to you at all. Keyboards can be a bain on communications sometimes.
Clearer skies yep, mucked up water Yep.
ana will come back temporary setback but not sure if it can make it through the great antillias

great quikscat of "Bill" COC around 11.5N in my estimation.
4737. Walshy
Quoting sfla82:


LOL...No it wont....It would have to hit land first and right now the only land in danger is Bermuda.



It will still probably kill a few U.S citizens from rough waves on the east coast especially if it gets strong like its forcasted to do so. East coast to Bermuda needs to watch it as it passes north of the islands.
Quoting P451:


Nobody is messing with you guys. Navy site had Claudette. Weather456 saw it and posted it earlier as well if that would suit your interests.

It was listed as Claudette and then they changed it back to 04L. Why, I don't know.

Nobody is throwing the name out there without just cause. It was there.


Interesting, wonder why.
bounced in for just a few...tho i am no met... i have seen the so called wobble many times... especially over night...bill's center appears to be reforming...maybe even a tad to the south of the old one...if this is true then the models will shift again to the south closer to the UKMET...not that I trust the UKMET mind you...but radiational cooling does a lot to a forming storm...even big ones have eye wall replacement and they can reform in any direction of the original eye...no storm is a fish storm...last year a fish storm hit the UK...just cuz it isn't a US storm doesn't make it a fish storm by any means
4740. tramp96
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=34027455001&channel=VBLOG_STRAIT&title=Southeast Tropical Troubles Next Week, Texas Baking
I agree with that P451. The pressures certainly don't seem consistent with the rest of the factors of TD04. ???

Quoting leftovers:
surfer storm beje


Gosh, y'all are so confident.

A little warning, remember it is early in the season yet and such early storms tend NOT to go too far North.

There is some high level wv streaming N to meet Comet Ana...will it help...who knows.
4744. Hhunter


gulf is like bath water...pretty impressive blow up on dvorak
Hah, I thought pressure was too high for anything to develop in the gulf. When are people going to learn...never proclaim things as absolutes when dealing with weather
TD#4 is about 95 miles SSE of Apalachicola, this was an estimate by using the radar image. So I would say about 5 to 6 hours till landfall and that is with it going about 15 mph to the NNW.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
So let me get this straight on the general feeling of the blog.

Ana is (again apparently) going to dissipate.

Bill was hype and is going out to sea.
(wasn't Ike called 'hype'?)

TD4/Claudette is going to be nothing more than a thunderstorm even though SST's are some of the hottest on Earth. Never know, think of Humberto.

:)

That's what some people in here will have you think, I on the other hand don't think that.
The sun is out in Tampa.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I forget some people go to church these days. I don't know a single person who goes unless there is a wedding or funeral!
That speaks volumes.
Mandy, the local mets just said for us to expect 3 - 4 inches... heck we got 3 1/2 inch here on Wednesday!
But as I said, prepare for the worst & hope for the best!
Alberto was an UGLY storm!
Quoting MandyFSU:
Foxx- I was thinking Alberto too. Doubt we get much of anything (I'll be happy with an inch of rain!) but we are under a flood watch and in Tallahassee the flood is as bad as the wind could be. If nothing else this is a "gentle" reminder that it is mid-August and nothing is off limits!
The University of Tampa, Tampa, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
79.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 6.0 mphfrom the SE
Wind Gust: 18.0 mph
Pressure: 30.05 in (Steady)

4752. P451
Dry air entrainment is pretty bad at the moment on Bill.





4753. Hhunter
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's what some people in here will have you think, I on the other hand don't think that.


i think ana is scary because now it could slide into middle gulf...yikes

Bill east coast disaster movie potential
4755. amd
for all the hype about TD4, radar clearly shows that showers not even 50 miles to the north of the system are not being pulled into TD4. This is what Dr. Lyons mentioned in his tropical update. These showers can not be wrapped into the system because the pressures are just too high.

Also, with Humberto, pressures were already low over the western gulf before the storm began to develop, and an eye like feature was noticed when Humberto was a 45 mph tropical storm.

TD4 will be nothing like Humberto. Humberto's pressure was at 986 mb right before landfall, while TD4's pressure is supposedly 1011 mb.
LOVELY breeze here in Tallahassee. It feels SO NICE outside- even with the humidity.
4757. tramp96
Frank Straight on Accu says sometimes the models have the troughs coming in to fast
reason surfers get wrapped up on drugs just not enough surf thank god for bill
4759. Hhunter
4760. Dakster
Quoting tiggeriffic:
bounced in for just a few...tho i am no met... i have seen the so called wobble many times... especially over night...bill's center appears to be reforming...maybe even a tad to the south of the old one...if this is true then the models will shift again to the south closer to the UKMET...not that I trust the UKMET mind you...but radiational cooling does a lot to a forming storm...even big ones have eye wall replacement and they can reform in any direction of the original eye...no storm is a fish storm...last year a fish storm hit the UK...just cuz it isn't a US storm doesn't make it a fish storm by any means


Direction change or wobble wobble:

Link
Quoting P451:


Nobody is messing with you guys. Navy site had Claudette. Weather456 saw it and posted it earlier as well if that would suit your interests.

It was listed as Claudette and then they changed it back to 04L. Why, I don't know.

Nobody is throwing the name out there without just cause. It was there.
I know it is annoying, several of us saw and reported it, I have a screen shot of it. (but decided it is not worth the effort to upload it.) Doesn't matter - it is TD4 for now, and a rose by another name is still a rose.
4762. ITCZ
We've had alot of rain here in Havana, near Tallahassee in the last few days. I hope may-be-Claudette is kind to us....
Quoting WeatherGirl80:
Anyone here think that TS Ana, IF it makes it to the GOM, could regenerate once it hits those unobstructed warm SST's?


The models show enough structure to regenerate when in the GOM. Expect at least a strong tropical storm. She might get stronger though since it would pass over waters with the highest energy in the gulf. Ana is a fighter and I would worry if she remains intact and gets in there.
Could those rising pressures around td4 be the bermuda high building in? Forgive me if this a stupid question.:) won't be the first...
.
Quoting theshepherd:
Nope... My bad if that came across wrong, I was not reffering to you at all. Keyboards can be a bain on communications sometimes.
Clearer skies yep, mucked up water Yep.
I realize it could be refering to who I was refering to also. I did not take offense even if you really had ment it which I realize you didn't.

Was in the Keys yesterday in Islamorada. There were some good gusts in this overblown thunderstorm as some have refered to it but overall it was a rainmaker. Today you're going to need sunscreen or a good hat for your kayaking. It's a bright one outside. Good luck on the flats.
Quoting amd:
for all the hype about TD4, radar clearly shows that showers not even 50 miles to the north of the system are not being pulled into TD4. This is what Dr. Lyons mentioned in his tropical update. These showers can not be wrapped into the system because the pressures are just too high.

Also, with Humberto, pressures were already low over the western gulf before the storm began to develop, and an eye like feature was noticed when Humberto was a 45 mph tropical storm.

TD4 will be nothing like Humberto. Humberto's pressure was at 986 mb right before landfall, while TD4's pressure is supposedly 1011 mb.


TD4 is embedded in a area of high pressure, higher than normal, thats why the pressure is so high for TD4. Dr. Lyons said Pre-Ana and pre-Bill would dissipate and yesterday only briefly mentioned pre-TD4 but as you would expect didn't think much of it.
Heck, I can barely make out where Ana even is on the map! But, as with any of these storms, she looks to be moving into some warmer waters and could make a come back.

I also see the track she is so far taking, but any jog to the N would put it closer to FL, right?
The problem with the models is that these same models had Ana hitting S. Florida, now look where she is at. I'm gonna have to jump in the "the models are underestimating the high pressure" boat.

The UKMET has a pretty good handle on Ana, why not Bill? There is no way that whatever is left of Ana will go over Hispaniola when it is going 20 mph due west.

The UKMET is also the southern outlier with Bill too.
4769. Thaale
Models shifted Bill even more N and E at 8:00 AM and the GFS now has him going way E of Bermuda instead of right over. The wc crowd is getting desperate; instead of "follow the trend," it's "these things always zig-zag back and forth." Too bad for them it's been all zig.

The NHC track will yet again shift further up and right in an hour.
4770. Walshy
Quoting tiggeriffic:
bounced in for just a few...tho i am no met... i have seen the so called wobble many times... especially over night...bill's center appears to be reforming...maybe even a tad to the south of the old one...if this is true then the models will shift again to the south closer to the UKMET...not that I trust the UKMET mind you...but radiational cooling does a lot to a forming storm...even big ones have eye wall replacement and they can reform in any direction of the original eye...no storm is a fish storm...last year a fish storm hit the UK...just cuz it isn't a US storm doesn't make it a fish storm by any means



I think the east coast and Bermuda needs to watch Bill closely. If Bill is a major hurricane expect 1-10 deaths from Florida to North Carolina due to rough waves.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 16 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 17/1800Z,18/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0302A ANA
C. 17/1600Z
D. 16.8N 64.6W
E. 17/1700Z TO 18/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 18/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0402A ANA
C. 18/0330Z
D. 17.6N 68.2W
E. 18/0500Z TO 18/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING TASKING ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 2 IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE LAUNCHED
TODAY AT 16/1500Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




I think they mean TD4 in the Gulf
4772. P451
Quoting homegirl:
I agree with that P451. The pressures certainly don't seem consistent with the rest of the factors of TD04. ???



It's kind of confusing actually but it's still rising.

Current Pressures:



Link


3HR Changes: (It has still risen from 0.9MB to 1.86MB near TD4/Claudette center)



Link
Quoting theshepherd:
That speaks volumes.


Not sure what you mean by that, but the majority of people don't go anymore, especially outside of the "Bible belt". Anyway, I'm not going to discuss it further.
TWC has td04 going toward Panama City at this point...people down play storms all the time, people die in flood water faster than wind all the time...think about it..you don't need a surge to die...the rain and floods in the Appalachian mts earlier this year killed a bunch...got family up there...no one expected anything like that just from rain..
Quoting WeatherGirl80:
Anyone here think that TS Ana, IF it makes it to the GOM, could regenerate once it hits those unobstructed warm SST's?



Thats a real big "IF">
Pressures just seem out of wack for a storm that looks as good as TD4. Maybe this will be known as the almost Humberto.
Quoting leftovers:
reason surfers get wrapped up on drugs just not enough surf thank god for bill


Ya want a cargo ship to drop you into Bill's centre, for REAL waves?

;-)
ITCZ- you're right near me then! I'm in Tallahassee!
4779. P451


Anyone here think that TS Ana, IF it makes it to the GOM, could regenerate once it hits those warm SST's?
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Pressures just seem out of wack for a storm that looks as good as TD4. Maybe this will be known as the almost Humberto.


Refer to post 4766. :)
I think Ana is now an open wave.
By the 11am advisory TD#4 should be Claudette. The definition of this storm is good and multiple feeder bands are present, it won't have no time to strengthen though so I don't think a hurricane would be imminent.
Quoting stormpetrol:

great quikscat of "Bill" COC around 11.5N in my estimation.


Which puts him much south of what the satellite images make you believe.
Ana has actually managed to hide beneath her convection for about 2 hours now. Almost tempted to give her a medal.

Quoting WeatherGirl80:
Anyone here think that TS Ana, IF it makes it to the GOM, could regenerate once it hits those warm SST's?

an example is td four so yes
Quoting cajunkid:
Hah, I thought pressure was too high for anything to develop in the gulf. When are people going to learn...never proclaim things as absolutes when dealing with weather
I'm no expert but have been studying weather as a hobby since childhood. It's not the pressure per se or absolute. It's the pressure relative to the surrounding area. The pressure in TD4 is not that low but lower than the surrounding pressure hence it's a low.
4788. amd
Quoting Thaale:
Models shifted Bill even more N and E at 8:00 AM and the GFS now has him going way E of Bermuda instead of right over. The wc crowd is getting desperate; instead of "follow the trend," it's "these things always zig-zag back and forth." Too bad for them it's been all zig.

The NHC track will yet again shift further up and right in an hour.


I agree, with one major caveat. I think the models are really overdoing the intensity of Bill. Dry air is in the core of Bill right now, as shown by the latest imagery. Also, many of these same models a couple days ago had Bill approaching hurricane strength at this time, but that simply has not occurred.

So, even though all indications are that Bill will turn out to sea well in advance of any land mass, I would like to see more strengthening before that is an absolute certainty. JMHO.
4789. P451
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


TD4 is embedded in a area of high pressure, higher than normal, thats why the pressure is so high for TD4. Dr. Lyons said Pre-Ana and pre-Bill would dissipate and yesterday only briefly mentioned pre-TD4 but as you would expect didn't think much of it.


Interesting.

More so than just the high pressure reading is the fact that the pressure trend continues to rise.

I don't see how any rapid intensification could possibly take place. I would expect this to be anywhere from remaining TD4 at 35 to maybe as much as TS Claudette at 55mph.

It's also moving rather quickly.

I guess we'll know a lot more with the 11AM Discussion.

Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Refer to post 4766. :)


Thanks I saw that post after I posted.
Quoting Golladan:


Which puts him much south of what the satellite images make you believe.

Correct and contrary to the thoughts of some here "Bill" is still moving due west its just the expansion of this storm giving the illusion of a WNW movement, just my opinion of course.
waiting to see an avatar. good luck in barbados this yr
Ana will more and likely be downgraded to a tropical depression or just a tropical low. This storm has endured extreme amounts of dry air from the north.
4794. java162
looking at the models, the islands of guadeloupe and dominica are in the center of ana's path. cananyone explain to me why none of these islands have posted tropical storm advisories?
surf alert for the GOM....i'm sure surfmom is already in.....heading to PC in a few hours gonaa hit Amazons...time for some real stuff for a change....waxem if you got em.....
Quoting Cotillion:
Ana has actually managed to hide beneath her convection for about 2 hours now. Almost tempted to give her a medal.



Her environment is starting to moisten up.
4797. P451
Sure would be surprised to not see it named Claudette officially at 11am.


can't make out a closed low on Ana, maybe semi closed but thats it, jmo
Quoting leftovers:
rehab is rehab. good luck in barbados this yr


LOL. Thanks.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes

Weather456, daily update.


ANA

Bill

TD4
4802. IKE
NEW BLOG!
its got to be bad for french islands to post it
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Her environment is starting to moisten up.


Yeah, not as much dry air to contend with, and not a moisture grabbing ULL either.

Not being sheared right now either, but it's really on the cusp of okay shear. Any quick job north and it has to face 20kts at least of westerlies.

It may be an open wave as some have indicated, the cyclonic turning doesn't seem nearly as much as it was. Even if that is the case, there's always the chance that she'll re-spin a LLC anyway.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Could those rising pressures around td4 be the bermuda high building in? Forgive me if this a stupid question.:) won't be the first...



there's a daily cycle of surface pressures in the tropics. From wikipedia (under atmospheric pressure):

"Atmospheric pressure shows a diurnal (twice-daily) cycle caused by global atmospheric tides. This effect is strongest in tropical zones, with amplitude of a few millibars, and almost zero in polar areas. These variations have two superimposed cycles, a circadian (24 h) cycle and semi-circadian (12 h) cycle".

you can see this when you plot surface pressures from buoys in the tropical oceans. In the absence of storms, the pressure varies a few mb up and down every day in an even cycle.

you can see the daily pressure variation (green line) from this Carribean buoy (link below).

Link
4806. P451
NEW BLOG
Was wondering if TD4 will decrease SST's where it passes through

This buoy is at 28.5N and 84.5W - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
Is this a normal variation?

4808. CJ5
Ana and Bill both had a bad night. Ana seems to like to dress up at night fall only to lose it in the am. She continues the walk of shame each morning. Dyr air is an issue with her but unlike last morning she has some convection around her coc. She continues to move W as does Bill. I think both of these are vigorous storms and it will take a lot of different dynamics to kill them off. Another watch and see day. I will say I do not believe the NW turn for Bill as earlier a modeled righ now. If Ana does follow the models she will cross the hottest waters anywhere in a few days.
4809. P451
NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG
Quoting LightningCharmer:


Was in the Keys yesterday in Islamorada. There were some good gusts in this overblown thunderstorm as some have refered to it but overall it was a rainmaker. Today you're going to need sunscreen or a good hat for your kayaking. It's a bright one outside. Good luck on the flats.

Good for you.
Yup, got the hat and long sleeves and pants. Better than sunscreen.
For those directly under it, it's was impressive.
There are some sailboaters and spongers anchored "a bit differently" than where they left them night before last.
hello all. from the golf capital of the usa... been reading this blog for 3 years, hope all are safe and well.. first time here.. so. here goes,,,, i was watching the stormcarib.com site sat pics.. ana and td 4 look like a severe thunderstorm watch ought to be issued. i have seen bigger storms come thru nc than this ,, also there are quite a few here whom are met smart,, kudos ,, to you helping all.. i enjoy this site,, so thank you all..
4814. Patrap
2 Sept 2008

363 days ago.