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An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:26 PM GMT on March 12, 2010

The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters
Tornado, Saline County, AR
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain...
deluge of rain...
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
wind damage
wind damage
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Adding to:

Record cold usually spells trouble for the Peninsula. Starting in 08 and discounting the obvious anomalies from this year, I was expecting an active season for the peninsula this year. Seems the anomalies are only to fuel the fire to come.

Of note, the waters of the Gulf and Western Atlantic, close to home, are the coldest they've been in many years. We're starting from a much lower point so, without any positive temperature anomalies this spring & summer, we should take longer to get up to speed.

However, seeing recent storms defy the what was and go full steam in less than hospitable ocean temps has me wondering.


Well the gulf won't have a problem warming up, you can count on that. The loop current is going to flood the gulf with warm water from the Caribbean once the sun starts warming things up this spring. The gulf stream east of Florida will follow once the gulf warms up. That whole area should be normal to above normal by the time the season starts.
2010 hurricane season prediction:

2 unnamed depressions
17 named storms
1 subtropical storm
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
1 cat. 5 hurricane

Total: 19 storms (including depressions)
Dover NH-If I read the radar right, we got 3.9 in of rain since yesterday. Looks likes it's coming to an end soon which is good because the rivers are getting full and I don't own a boat
I've never seen the Gulf of Mexico not get warm enough to support strong hurricanes by August. If we don't have strong hurricanes there, it will be due to something else, not water temps.

Water temps can be very hard to predict though. In 2003 there was a tremendous upwelling event off the east coast of Florida. At Daytona, water temps did not hit 80 F even once during July. And the water fell at one point to 62 F. Link

Another upwelling event like that happened off the GA coast in June 1988. Water temps fell to 64 by the solstice, creating cool, subsident, sunny and dry weather. Water temps did not get close to normal until August. And while the rest of the country sweltered in drought, we had our 3rd coolest summer of the past 60 years!

If an upwelling like that happens again, the local coast will be safe from major hurricanes for a while. Major hurricanes don't like water in the lower 60s. And that's a good thing.

Quoting Patrap:
Now the Ol Ladies in Boca are nervous and it aint even Spring yet JB,..LOL


Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says


(March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 17 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.


Speaking of JB, he's predicting a drastic cooldown in global temperatures around 2011-2012. He cites the cooldown of El Nino and the temperatures being cooler in 2010 than in 1998 as reasons. Link

However, I disagree. In the two maps that Bastardi uses, there is no conclusive way of saying that the Arctic temperatures in 1998 were warmer than they are now. The 1998 map shows a solid orange while the 2010 map shows a solid white, because the white represents sea ice and in 1998 the maps did not incorporate sea ice and made a simple assumption for the temperature anomaly throughout the entire region where sea ice existed. The current Arctic SST anomalies are shown below, but under the sea ice it's difficult to tell what temperature it is, so there's no data and the whole point about the Arctic blocking easing up is moot.



Looking at the graph of global average temperatures, 1997-98 is the only real comparison to this year, but that winter the El Nino was stronger and this year the global temperatures are actually higher and the ENSO anomalies are spread out. The warmth in the Central Pacific does not directly indicate a cold PDO (which is present), but rather a Modoki El Nino. So this is proof that the global temperatures are on the rise, and Bastardi's cold prediction assumes that there is no warming. You can't make an assumption like that if you want to make a prediction based on the data.

The return to cooler temperatures for ENSO might not occur as drastically as it did for late 1998, because that resulted in a strong La Nina which may or may not actually occur this year. Predictions for the OND period in 2010 suggest anywhere between +0.3 to -2.1. It could very well be neutral, or a "Modoki-style" mix of El Nino and La Nina in different parts of the Pacific. Either way, there's no way to assure that La Nina will still be around by 2011-2012, because it could just as easily jump back into an El Nino. That's with all the forcings pushing the temperatures to the warm side, including the solar maximum, the continuation of methane clathrate release, and a dry Amazon (think fires and release of CO2).

The Arctic was warmer than normal this winter, and the Arctic vortex has returned, reducing the negative-ness of the AO but at the same time cooling much of the North Atlantic and Pacific. But this warming will mean a lot later in the season when the melting of the Arctic ice cap is underway. Open sea will warm the Northern Hemisphere and possibly keep that "spike" up longer than JB is expecting.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 4
5:00 AM EST March 15 2010
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (935 hPa) located at 13.0S 160.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 145 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/12hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.0S 158.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 13.2S 157.3E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 13.8S 156.7E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
72 HRS: 14.8S 157.3E - 115 knots (CAT 5)

Additional Information
==========================
Analysis based on embedded centre in white surround with 0.5 added for BF.

DT is 5.5, MET is 5.5 also, Final T 5.5. CI held at 6.0.

System has weakened slightly over the last 6 to 12 hours as northern outflow channel becomes compromised. Outflow to south remains good.
Quoting Ameister12:
2010 hurricane season prediction:

2 unnamed depressions
17 named storms
1 subtropical storm
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
1 cat. 5 hurricane

Total: 19 storms (including depressions)


My own prediction was close to that: 3 depressions, 16 named storms, 2 subtropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, and 2 cat. 5 hurricanes.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:




This year globally warmer than 1998? I don't think so:



And there is a solid cold PDO signature developing in the Pacific. I posted the comparison yesterday between last month and this month's anomaly maps:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The El Nino is dying because that's what they do after peaking in the winter, especially during a cold PDO when they are usually short-lived. You can see the cold PDO signature of cold water west of South America and in the eastern pacific starting to squeeze off the warm tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific:

This Month:



Last Month:



Notice the western Pacific warming and the north Pacific taking on a much more cold PDO look than last month. Even the south Pacific is coming along towards a cold look too."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Modoki" El Nino, as people call it, is simply an El Nino warm pool shifted further west over the central Pacific. It's not something new or special that has suddenly started appearing. Modoki El Ninos occur most often in cold PDOs, as that is what forces the warm water west. The reason people try to claim it's something new is because the last cold PDO cycle ended in 1978 before satellite SST measurements began, and all the El Ninos we have fully observed since then were during a warm PDO.

Bastardi's point is that there was a great falloff in the temperatures after the 1998 El Nino, which marked the end of the warm PDO cycle, and a similar falloff in global temperatures could happen here. A cold PDO doesn't mean NO El Ninos. This particular nino is reactionary to the PDO going cold, which is why we knew it wouldn't last very long. That's why we knew the CFS forecast for El Nino conditions all summer long this year was crap. The journey down into a cold PDO isn't going to be a smooth ride. Bumps are expected along the way, and this current spike is one of them. It's a lower spike than 1998, and there's no telling if the temperature falloff will exceed 1999-2001, but there will likely be a significant decrease in temperatures as we head into a La Nina this winter. How strong it will be is hard to say now, but the global patterns clearly show that this warming is not just going to continue going up this year and next year.
509. xcool
16-7-4 1-3 major landfall
510. xcool




Link

check out this website ....
Ului is down to a Cat 3 based on satellite imagery. That's not just my opinion either because the T numbers are down to a range of 4.8 to 5.6. Ului's going to continue to have a hard time until that upper low leaves her alone.



Tomas on the other hand looks much better than Ului and is starting to batter Fiji. Tomas is slowly strengthening and looks like a strong Cat 3 right now. He could make it to a weak Cat 4 before shear starts to weaken him on his way poleward.

Quoting Levi32:
Ului is down to a Cat 3 based on satellite imagery. That's not just my opinion either because the T numbers are down to a range of 4.8 to 5.6. Ului's going to continue to have a hard time until that upper low leaves her alone.



Tomas on the other hand looks much better than Ului and is starting to batter Fiji. Tomas is slowly strengthening and looks like a strong Cat 3 right now. He could make it to a weak Cat 4 before shear starts to weaken him on his way poleward.


Tomas looks so much better then Ului right now.
Ului is forecasted to restrengthen in a few days as it gets further way from Tomas and the ULL

Quoting StormW:


Don't forget the one they'll name all the way north of the Azores, near the Canary Islands.


I think the NHC should create a boundary that defines when a system can be classified and given an Atlantic name

How about any storm that forms EAST of the Azores, does not get named but is treated like a European storm and if they choose to name it they can

Also any system that forms north of 45N does not get a name unless it is an threat to the US or Canada
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think the NHC should create a boundary that defines when a system can be classified and given an Atlantic name

How about any storm that forms EAST of the Azores, does not get named but is treated like a European storm and if they choose to name it they can

Also any system that forms north of 45N does not get a name unless it is an threat to the US or Canada


I dunno that's unfair when you consider tropical cyclones globally. Every TC should get a name and be recorded properly if it earned a name. I'd rather see the NHC simply add something to their yearly hurricane forecast, such as a forecasted number of storms that will either form or track west of 60W. Storms west of this longitude threaten all land areas that are typically threatened by hurricanes in the Atlantic. If they simply give a forecasted number of total named storms, and then a number of those storms that will form or track west of 60W, it will be a much clearer forecast.

It would also give them a chance to start forecasting track congregations, as this part of the forecast would tell us how threatened they think the land areas of the western Atlantic are in a particular year.
Quoting Levi32:


I dunno that's unfair when you consider tropical cyclones globally. Every TC should get a name and be recorded properly if it earned a name. I'd rather see the NHC simply add something to their yearly hurricane forecast, such as a forecasted number of storms that will either form or track west of 60W. Storms west of this line threaten all land areas that are typically threatened by hurricanes in the Atlantic. If they simply give a forecasted number of total named storms, and then a number of those storms that will form or track west of 60W, it will be a much clearer forecast.


I agree too I was just thinking that they could do that to combat this whole "only named it to add to the numbers"

Also if it gets beyond those boundaries and is a threat to Europe, than they would name it
Hey Levi 32..I was curious to see how the 1964 Atlantic Hurricane Season was active..Im not familiar with that year.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I agree too I was just thinking that they could do that to combat this whole "only named it to add to the numbers"

Also if it gets beyond those boundaries and is a threat to Europe, than they would name it


Yeah well they wouldn't have that problem if they were consistent. If those accusations are untrue, then they simply need to follow the simple defined parameters of a named storm, and name tropical cyclones appropriately. It's not hard, it really isn't, but they have been making weird naming decisions for a while now.
1964 had 4 major hurricanes hit the US

Cleo, Dora, Hilda and Isbell

Cleo, Dora and Isbell hit Florida
Hilda hit Lousiana
And Dora was the last time that Jacksonville, Fla saw hurricane force winds from a named system.

That was 46 years ago.

Let's not mess up a good thing, ok?
Quoting troy1993:
Hey Levi 32..I was curious to see how the 1964 Atlantic Hurricane Season was active..Im not familiar with that year.


Well some things like global SST measurements weren't available back in 1964, but we can look at the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) and see that the '64 hurricane season had an El Nino the preceding winter that peaked in December, like this year, and then fell down into a moderate La Nina during the hurricane season.



The winter of 1963-64 also had a strongly negative NAO from November through February, just like this winter has had. This was the only winter I could find with that strong of a negative NAO for those 4 months in a row. This is part of why 1964 is one of the top analogs in this year's package.



The other reasons are illustrated in my comment on the previous page showing the Precipitation, MSLP, and SST anomalies from the 4 top analogs, including 1964. Based on that data, 1964 saw concentrated heat in the deep tropics of the Atlantic, suppressed trade winds in the eastern Atlantic which was favorable for tropical waves, and focused upward motion over the southwest Atlantic which caused a congregation of storm tracks in the western Caribbean, gulf, and off the SE U.S. coast. Three category 2s and one Cat 3 hit the U.S. coast that year.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
6:00 AM FST March 15 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.


For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, LAKEBA, VANUA BALAVU, MOALA,MATUKU,TOTOYA, CICIA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.


At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (940 hPa) located at 15.2S 179.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Cyclone has intensified over the last 12 hours and continues to strengthen further. Cyclone lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered southerly by the deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on DT of 5.5 with OW EYE surrounded by LG

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

Consensus of the global models agree on southerly track and intensification, but the cyclone is expected to move into a increasingly sheared environment and weaken south of 20S.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.3S 179.6W - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 17.6S 179.7W - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 21.4S 179.0W - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 2:30 AM UTC (Monday)...
525. xcool
Quoting StormW:


How about we quit naming subtropical systems, and just name pruely tropical, warm cored systems (hence the name "Tropical Storm". Put the subtropical stuff under the Gale Warnings stuff on the High Seas forecast.


I agree with that, but storms like sub-tropical storm Andrea in 2007, close to the coast and outside of the normal hurricane season, need to be paid attention to so people understand how serious they can be. I hope that at least the forecasts in that kind of a situation would word it properly so people both on land and ships know it's a subtropical system and is a bigger deal than your typical storm.

Then again they don't even do that for tropical systems with eye-features off the Carolina coast.....



Can you believe they didn't name this?? People in ships get under it and are like what the heck is this?

And then the radar image over land LOL:

Quoting Levi32:


I agree with that, but storms like sub-tropical storm Andrea in 2007, close to the coast and outside of the normal hurricane season, need to be paid attention to so people understand how serious they can be. I hope that at least the forecasts in that kind of a situation would word it properly so people both on land and ships know it's a subtropical system and is a bigger deal than your typical storm.

Then again they don't even do that for tropical systems with eye-features off the Carolina coast.....



Can you believe they didn't name this?? People in ships get under it and are like what the heck is this?

And then the radar image over land LOL:



I think the biggest issue is exactly what you stated, they havent followed their own criteria all the time; so its hard to tell what they think should get a name and what shouldn't. It only confuses people more and leads to those kinds of issues.
Quoting StormW:


Good point...or in that case, if the system takes on more tropical characteristics (like the system that hit NJ a while back, which was warm core, and both pressure bottomed out and the wind went calm as the center passed over the buoy near Cape May, or Wildwood) SHOULD be named. They kinda need to re define the term "subtropical", as the term states a system that has both tropical and extratropical cyclone. I get into this argument every year with folks, that say it shouldn't be classified because the system is attached to a front. Unless I'm off on my understanding of the process involved, an extratropical cyclone (i.e. Mid Latitude Cyclone) has fronts associcated with it. So if a subtropical cyclone is considreed to have both tropical and "extratropical" characteristics (Mid Latitude cyclone,with fronts) why can't they name something that is warm cored, presents tropical characteristics as far was wind and pressure, even thouhg it may still be associated with a front?


Exactly, the whole thing is very fuzzy. The class of subtropical hybrid storms is extremely diverse, and can have quite a number of different kinds of storms in it. Like you said the definition of a subtropical cyclone is a low pressure area that exhibits both tropical and extratropical characteristics, which suggests that yes even if it's on a front it can be named if it is warm-core, at least shallowly.

What's even more ridiculous though is when you get the kind of "sub-tropical" cyclone that gets completely cut off from any baroclinic zone whatsoever, becomes symetric, and yeah may have an upper low over it but it's a barotropic system that you know is going to eventually warm its core from bottom to top if it's over 25C or warmer waters south of 35N with convection firing over the center. Fronts are one thing, but how you can still call that a non-tropical system is beyond me.
Looks like one more cool down for so. Fla. later this week. Lows back down in the 40's...

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL (33409)

Mar 14 Tonight
Generally clear. Low 56F. W winds at 20 to 30 mph, diminishing to 10 to 15 mph.

Mar 15 Tomorrow
Sunny skies. High 76F. Winds W at 20 to 30 mph.

Mar 15 Tomorrow night
A few clouds. Low 51F. Winds WNW at 15 to 25 mph.

Mar 16 Tuesday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

Mar 17 Wednesday
Clouds giving way to sun . Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s.


Mar 18 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s.


Mar 19 Friday
Sunny. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

Mar 20 Saturday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Mar 21 Sunday
A few clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.

Mar 22 Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Mar 23 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Quoting Levi32:


This year globally warmer than 1998? I don't think so:



And there is a solid cold PDO signature developing in the Pacific. I posted the comparison yesterday between last month and this month's anomaly maps:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The El Nino is dying because that's what they do after peaking in the winter, especially during a cold PDO when they are usually short-lived. You can see the cold PDO signature of cold water west of South America and in the eastern pacific starting to squeeze off the warm tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific:

This Month:



Last Month:



Notice the western Pacific warming and the north Pacific taking on a much more cold PDO look than last month. Even the south Pacific is coming along towards a cold look too."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Modoki" El Nino, as people call it, is simply an El Nino warm pool shifted further west over the central Pacific. It's not something new or special that has suddenly started appearing. Modoki El Ninos occur most often in cold PDOs, as that is what forces the warm water west. The reason people try to claim it's something new is because the last cold PDO cycle ended in 1978 before satellite SST measurements began, and all the El Ninos we have fully observed since then were during a warm PDO.

Bastardi's point is that there was a great falloff in the temperatures after the 1998 El Nino, which marked the end of the warm PDO cycle, and a similar falloff in global temperatures could happen here. A cold PDO doesn't mean NO El Ninos. This particular nino is reactionary to the PDO going cold, which is why we knew it wouldn't last very long. That's why we knew the CFS forecast for El Nino conditions all summer long this year was crap. The journey down into a cold PDO isn't going to be a smooth ride. Bumps are expected along the way, and this current spike is one of them. It's a lower spike than 1998, and there's no telling if the temperature falloff will exceed 1999-2001, but there will likely be a significant decrease in temperatures as we head into a La Nina this winter. How strong it will be is hard to say now, but the global patterns clearly show that this warming is not just going to continue going up this year and next year.


Hmm, where did you get the February UAH figures? I figured that it would be "1.03F" above last February, therefore +0.96C, but I guess not. The warm waters in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are getting squeezed off, but now there is a second subsurface plume of hot water coming to the surface around May, and that will keep La Nina at bay for a while and enhance the WHWP, creating the conditions for an active season in the pre-season. The Modoki El Nino this year actually started as a weak normal El Nino and the Central Pacific became the warmest, but then the West Pacific cooled due to Nida and steering currents drove the warmest water which was then in the Northwest Pacific, into the Central Western Pacific and gave an extra boost to El Nino. That warm water has been partly diverted to the Midlatitude South Pacific, but now the main pool is expected to drift west due to a strengthening Humboldt Current as the undermining effects of the Southeast ENSO extention decrease, and that warm pool should drift into the Northwest Pacific, boosting the Kushiro Current (which has been warming since January). There is a cold PDO, but that isn't a guarantee for a strong La Nina like the one we had in 1998-1999. Also, there's a chance that La Nina could weaken from there and transition back to an El Nino in time for the high solar activity, boosting up global temperatures again. You can't forecast global cooling from the PDO and AMO because there's no overall trend in the correlation between the two. If anything, global temperatures will keep rising and the "spikes" we saw in 1998 and this year will become more and more frequent. While this cannot be accurately confirmed without satellite data, we only started seeing El Nino Modoki events 30 years ago. The two most recent events, 2004 and 2010, both produced a South Atlantic tropical cyclone and global warming was not expected to produce favourable conditions for that until 2070.
The current conditions, climate model forecasts, and analog years are supportive of a well above-average year for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The heat build up in the tropics at this time surpasses that of 2005 due to the negative NAO resulting in below average tradewind speeds. Models show a decay of El Nino towards neutral conditions before the start of hurricane season and possibly working its way into La Nina conditions. Models show above average Sea-Surface temperatures in the MDR with the maximum heat building in the Caribbean in the August-September-October critical period. Wind shear forecasts from the CFS of shear being below average in the MDR between 2-4m/s slower represents a dominant subequatorial ridge.

My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes
My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes


Holy cow, Drakoen...you're usually pretty conservative.

Ouch.
Thanks Drak. I know it's WAY too early, but with the conditions you described, do you foresee this season having an early start?
Very interesting article brought to our attention by Joe Bastardi in his afternoon post today. I encourage all of you that are subscribed to the Accuweather Pro site to read his comments on this article. It is very enlightening.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thanks Drak. I know it's WAY too early, but with the conditions you described, do you foresee this season having an early start?


I would be very surprised if it didn't start early


Quoting aquak9:
My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes


Holy cow, Drakoen...you're usually pretty conservative.

Ouch.


Those were my conservative numbers
Drakoen, I don't like your forecast! But you have knowledge, and therefore your forecast should be taken seriously.

But I'll keep wishcasting for a slower season. Although my guess isn't that low ;)
Those were my conservative numbers

Please...DON'T tell us how you really feel!
the two tone talk
Quoting StormW:


Don't forget the one they'll name all the way north of the Azores, near the Canary Islands.


You mean they might actually name the January/February storms? Wasn't that one near the Azores a hybrid low, and aren't the Canary Islands south of the Azores?
oh lord- not him again
Awww c'mon Drakoen post the liberal numbers. I promise conservatives won't hate you if you do :)
Rising Temperatures in the Midst of Heavy Snow?

The decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest in the modern record. "Piecing Together the Temperature Puzzle" illustrates how NASA satellites enable us to study possible causes of climate change. The video explains what role fluctuations in the solar cycle, changes in snow and cloud cover, and rising levels of heat-trapping gases may play in contributing to climate change.

For more info on NASA and Climate Change, visit:
http://climate.nasa.gov


Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hmm, where did you get the February UAH figures? I figured that it would be "1.03F" above last February, therefore 0.96C, but I guess not. The warm waters in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are getting squeezed off, but now there is a second subsurface plume of hot water coming to the surface around May, and that will keep La Nina at bay for a while and enhance the WHWP, creating the conditions for an active season in the pre-season. The Modoki El Nino this year actually started as a weak normal El Nino and the Central Pacific became the warmest, but then the West Pacific cooled due to Nida and steering currents drove the warmest water which was then in the Northwest Pacific, into the Central Western Pacific and gave an extra boost to El Nino. That warm water has been partly diverted to the Midlatitude South Pacific, but now the main pool is expected to drift west due to a strengthening Humboldt Current as the undermining effects of the Southeast ENSO extention decrease, and that warm pool should drift into the Northwest Pacific, boosting the Kushiro Current (which has been warming since January). There is a cold PDO, but that isn't a guarantee for a strong La Nina like the one we had in 1998-1999. Also, there's a chance that La Nina could weaken from there and transition back to an El Nino in time for the high solar activity, boosting up global temperatures again. You can't forecast global cooling from the PDO and AMO because there's no overall trend in the correlation between the two. If anything, global temperatures will keep rising and the "spikes" we saw in 1998 and this year will become more and more frequent. While this cannot be accurately confirmed without satellite data, we only started seeing El Nino Modoki events 30 years ago. The two most recent events, 2004 and 2010, both produced a South Atlantic tropical cyclone and global warming was not expected to produce favourable conditions for that until 2070.


No correlation? Ok I'm going to assume for the sake of argument that the Hadley temperature record is accurate. Look at it and the PDO side by side:





Look at the dip in temperatures in the 1910s, corresponding to a cold PDO, rising temps from the '20s to the early '40s during a warm PDO, and then the warming ends in the very year that the PDO went cold again. Cooling (or leveling off if you must see it that way) occured from the '40s through 1978 during the cold PDO, and then the PDO went warm again until 1998. Since then the PDO has been starting to go cold again, and the temperatures have been flat-lining since 2000! Don't contradict your own graph.

And El Nino Modokis only been seen for 30 years? What happened 30 years ago? I'll tell you, satellites started measuring both atmosphere and ocean temperatures, starting our reliable and complete global record of SSTs and air temperature. Before that it was a lot harder to tell exactly what the El Nino looked like, so only after we had satellites could we figure out there were "different types" of El Ninos. When you look at the physical processes in the Pacific, you will see that "Modoki" El Ninos are more common during cold PDOs. Yes a cold PDO doesn't guarantee a strong La Nina this winter, but it certainly guarantees the death of this El Nino during the summer. The CFS thought the way you did during this winter, and forecasted El Nino to persist and refuse to go away during this summer. Guess what really happened, we're shoveling crow onto the CFS as it has shifted in line with the other models in forecasting a trend to neutral and weak-moderate La Nina.
Quoting Patrap:
I dont ever read any GW or CC info from JB or ACCU cuz he begins each paragraph with a Politicized agenda..or a Al Gore quip..

Never any real science nor Peer reviewed data that is accepted in the Field.



So they may bring it here,..it iz but non sense and hype to rally a personal point.

And dat's cool.

But not science atall.


Right and Al Gore doesn't have a political agenda? Please....which one is making the money off of this argument, Gore or Bastardi?? Ask yourself which one is more inclined to tell the truth. That article wasn't done by Accuweather, so don't complain about it.
Quoting Levi32:


Well some things like global SST measurements weren't available back in 1964, but we can look at the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) and see that the '64 hurricane season had an El Nino the preceding winter that peaked in December, like this year, and then fell down into a moderate La Nina during the hurricane season.



The winter of 1963-64 also had a strongly negative NAO from November through February, just like this winter has had. This was the only winter I could find with that strong of a negative NAO for those 4 months in a row. This is part of why 1964 is one of the top analogs in this year's package.



The other reasons are illustrated in my comment on the previous page showing the Precipitation, MSLP, and SST anomalies from the 4 top analogs, including 1964. Based on that data, 1964 saw concentrated heat in the deep tropics of the Atlantic, suppressed trade winds in the eastern Atlantic which was favorable for tropical waves, and focused upward motion over the southwest Atlantic which caused a congregation of storm tracks in the western Caribbean, gulf, and off the SE U.S. coast. Three category 2s and one Cat 3 hit the U.S. coast that year.



I can't help notice that most of the analog years had at least one hurricane hitting Haiti or NOLA. 1964 for example had a cat. 4 making landfall on Haiti and a cat. 3 hitting close to NOLA.
Quoting xcool:


The Gulf Stream appears to be struggling in its connection to the Loop Current with that cold water intrusion southwest of Florida.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I can't help notice that most of the analog years had at least one hurricane hitting Haiti or NOLA. 1964 for example had a cat. 4 making landfall on Haiti and a cat. 3 hitting close to NOLA.


Eerie isn't it....a warning about how the steering patterns could shape up and hit some populated areas if the setting is right. Everyone should be ready.
One thing I took into note was the CFS increasingly trending towards lower wind shear in the MDR region. The E3 CFS is much weaker with the shear than the E1. The favorable weaker upper level easterlies should be far more prevalent. Also looking at the precipitation pattern this season and the forecast 500mb heights. The ridge sets up over Texas carving out a trough in the east with the extension of the Bermuda high ridge towards the Bahamas. This favors central and eastern GOM track and southeastern seaboard tracks, particularly around August and September.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Awww c'mon Drakoen post the liberal numbers. I promise conservatives won't hate you if you do :)


lol
Wow.. Drak has higher expectations for the season than I do and thats a real first. I've narrowed mine down to this, looking at the ENSO, SSTs, the lower than average shear across most of the basin due to the negative NAO. We can only hope a strong trough builds in during the season that deflects most of the systems out into the blue never to be seen again.. but that would be trouble for Florida as a strong trough in the GOMEX might send systems, strong systems especially as they have a more northward tug, into the west coast of FL Charley style and even though we've had all this extreme cool weather in the South US wont stop the SST's and the TCHP in the GOMEX skyrocketing in 3-4 weeks time. MJO will most likely be a huge contributing factor this year.

So here's the numbers.

16 named Tropical Cyclones (approx 2 sub-tropical)
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
Quoting Drakoen:
One thing I took into note was the CFS increasingly trending towards lower wind shear in the MDR region. The E3 CFS is much weaker with the shear than the E1. The favorable weaker upper level easterlies should be far more prevalent. Also looking at the precipitation pattern this season and the forecast 500mb heights. The ridge sets up over Texas carving out a trough in the east with the extension of the Bermuda high ridge towards the Bahamas. This favors central and eastern GOM track and southeastern seaboard tracks, particularly around August and September.


Indeed, things are leaning towards a westward congregation of tracks with potential for multiple landfalls on the United States coastline. Watching the NAO and pressures over the eastern Atlantic this May will give us a key clue to how this will play out during the summer.
I remember Hilda in 64,,..she wasnt much here,,but the following year in Sept 65,Betsy a Cat 3 Had the Miss River at NOLA flowing North and flooded the 9th Ward.
Betsy was the last Major to strike NOLA before Katrina in 2005

40 years after.


This is raw news footage taken by Miami Television Station WTVJ channel-4 during and after the arrival of Hurricane Betsy, a strong cat.-3 storm which hit South Florida on September 8th 1965. This footage was shot at various locations in and around the Miami-Ft.Lauderdale area and the adjacent Beaches.

Hurricane Betsy 1965 Raw Footage! Part -6



Quoting Patrap:
I remember Hilda in 64,,..she wasnt much here,,but the following year in Sept 65,Betsy a Cat 3 Had the Miss River at NOLA flowing North and flooded the 9th Ward.
Betsy was the last Major to strike NOLA before Katrina in 2005

40 years after.

Hurricane Betsy 1965 Raw Footage! Part -6


Thank you for the vid pat, Besty sure was a beastly storm. I hope nothing like that storm, Katrina, even Gustav head your way again.
Quoting Levi32:


I agree with that, but storms like sub-tropical storm Andrea in 2007, close to the coast and outside of the normal hurricane season, need to be paid attention to so people understand how serious they can be. I hope that at least the forecasts in that kind of a situation would word it properly so people both on land and ships know it's a subtropical system and is a bigger deal than your typical storm.

Then again they don't even do that for tropical systems with eye-features off the Carolina coast.....



Can you believe they didn't name this?? People in ships get under it and are like what the heck is this?

And then the radar image over land LOL:



Was that the September system that resembled a Nor'easter and had tropical storm-force winds and made the NHC do a red circle and Recon before it made landfall and wasn't included in the post-season reanalysis? That's not the first in-season tropical storm to not get named. Here's one from October 1998, while Mitch was forming (look at the Bay of Campeche):




Here's the imagery of the September 2008 system. Look at it and tell me that's not at least a subtropical storm. It was also connected by a trough to the developing Tropical Storm Kyle.

Here's a look at the CFS 500mb mean for August:

Quoting Drakoen:
The current conditions, climate model forecasts, and analog years are supportive of a well above-average year for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The heat build up in the tropics at this time surpasses that of 2005 due to the negative NAO resulting in below average tradewind speeds. Models show a decay of El Nino towards neutral conditions before the start of hurricane season and possibly working its way into La Nina conditions. Models show above average Sea-Surface temperatures in the MDR with the maximum heat building in the Caribbean in the August-September-October critical period. Wind shear forecasts from the CFS of shear being below average in the MDR between 2-4m/s slower represents a dominant subequatorial ridge.

My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes


We typically see an increase in TC activity -- both frequency and intensity --in seasons immediately following an El Nino event...as long as it isn't a strong La Nina event with howling upper-level easterlies that shear off tropical waves and/or make them propagate westward toof ast for the low-level circulation and convergence zone/forcing to organize. A weak La Nina pattern like we had in 2005 produces the most favorable upper-level environment for TCs to develop and become quite intense. Even if el nino goes poof during the coming months i'am still having a hard time believing there wont be any lingering effects from this strong Nino that (could) trouble the hurricane season. As i stated a few days back it is the nature of warm-core lows in the tropics to spin up and become Cat 5's, and it is the environment -- mostly wind shear -- that modulates the intensity.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Was that the September system that resembled a Nor'easter and had tropical storm-force winds and made the NHC do a red circle and Recon before it made landfall and wasn't included in the post-season reanalysis? That's not the first in-season tropical storm to not get named. Here's one from October 1998, while Mitch was forming (look at the Bay of Campeche):



Yes that was September, 2008. It is only one of the many systems the NHC has missed that should have been named. They see them all, they saw that one in 1998 too, but for some strange reason do not name them. I wish at least that if they were going to do that they would be consistent about it. Instead they contrast by naming systems that look a lot worse than the systems they refuse to name. Too many times have I seen a system in the Atlantic that they haven't named, then I see a named on the map on the same day in the Atlantic or east Pacific, and those named systems look pathetic in comparison to the un-named one. It makes no sense.
Well CT,,we all hope it never occurs anywhere in the Basin,but history teaches us to be prepared and every year brings the same chance regardless of forecast.

Here ..we see Betsy from a different view,from TIROS-10 and Betsy was the first "Billion" Dollar Hurricane Impact in the US.

Nicknaming her Billion Dollar Betsy..and also confirmed the ol' GOM and Atlantic Mariners quip,.."weak storm Miami,..Beware NOLA"


Also...Betsy Looped in the Atlantic and was a entity for almost a month...

Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

A Hurricane Called Betsy
AVA16542VNB1 - 1966

Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.


Quoting StormW:


Good point...or in that case, if the system takes on more tropical characteristics (like the system that hit NJ a while back, which was warm core, and both pressure bottomed out and the wind went calm as the center passed over the buoy near Cape May, or Wildwood) SHOULD be named. They kinda need to re define the term "subtropical", as the term states a system that has both tropical and extratropical characteristics. I get into this argument every year with folks, that say it shouldn't be classified because the system is attached to a front. Unless I'm off on my understanding of the process involved, an extratropical cyclone (i.e. Mid Latitude Cyclone) has fronts associcated with it. So if a subtropical cyclone is considered to have both tropical and "extratropical" characteristics (Mid Latitude cyclone,with fronts) why can't they name something that is warm cored, presents tropical characteristics as far was wind and pressure, even though it may still be associated with a front?

(Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth (outside the tropics) having neither tropical nor polar characteristics, and are connected with fronts and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones".[1] Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.)


I'm pretty sure that tropical cyclones can also develop off of fronts, and detatch from the front while subtropical then turn into a hurricane.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm pretty sure that tropical cyclones can also develop off of fronts, and detatch from the front while subtropical then turn into a hurricane.


Indeed they can. A warm-core cyclone along a true frontal boundary can't be fully tropical until it is freed from the baroclinic zone and is allowed to become barotropic.

Also stalled fronts off the southeast coast or over the Gulf of Mexico can spawn tropical cyclones along the convergence zone. Often these fronts sit there long enough that all temperature difference across the front, and therefore baroclinicity, is gone, which can allow a truly tropical system to develop along it.
Adrian, looking at the current shear anomalies you can see anomalously below-average wind shear in the tropical Atlantic which matches up with the CFS for March.

Wind shear anomalies for the tropical Atlantic:



I liked the year the NHC used the term Neutercane..that was a wild un for sure.


The unnamed May 22nd, 2009 Tropical Storm in the GOMEX. Likely to be added during the PSA.

700mb Specific Humidity for August-October of 1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005. Notice how anomalously moist the entire southwest Atlantic was during the height of those hurricane seasons, as well as across the tropical eastern Atlantic with the African wave train.

That's a TS?
Hmmm...Played in the preview.
Quoting Levi32:
Very interesting article brought to our attention by Joe Bastardi in his afternoon post today. I encourage all of you that are subscribed to the Accuweather Pro site to read his comments on this article. It is very enlightening.


To the first point, which claims that water vapor has not increased in the US Eastern Seaboard. I blame the slowing of the Gulf Stream for the last 30 years as the cause (less heat transport means less water vapor).
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
That's a TS?


Loop is frozen, dunno why. This is it at landfall.

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


To the first point, which claims that water vapor has not increased in the US Eastern Seaboard. I blame the slowing of the Gulf Stream for the last 30 years as the cause (less heat transport means less water vapor).


That's all you've got? Lol....Al Gore doesn't understand all the physics of Meteorology. He simply shouts anything he hears that agrees with what he says. Why do you think he refuses to debate every time he's asked? Why should he be scared to publicly debate with somebody if he's so right? He was dead wrong on this one.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm out for a while, later all.
#552

"The Gulf Stream appears to be struggling ..."

Say what? Anything to back up that statement other than wishful thinking? The only time the Florida Current (which turns into the Gulf Stream) would struggle is that the sea level in the Gulf of Mexico falls to levels near that in the Atlantic. Any data on that?

fyi, from Wikipedia:

"The Florida Current results from the movement of water pushed from the Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea by the rotation of the Earth (which exerts a greater force at the equator). The water piles up along Central America and flows northward through the Yucatán Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. The water is heated in the Gulf and forced out through the Florida Straits, between the Florida Keys and Cuba and flows northward along the east coast of the United States. The Florida Current is often referred to imprecisely as the Gulf Stream. In fact, the Florida Current joins the Gulf Stream off the east coast of Florida."
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Loop is frozen, dunno why. This is it at landfall.



Some more ive got.





Stormchaser..where did you pull up that second loop?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Stormchaser..where did you pull up that second loop?


I'm guessing he saved the looped when the storm was present.
Quoting Levi32:


No correlation? Ok I'm going to assume for the sake of argument that the Hadley temperature record is accurate. Look at it and the PDO side by side:





Look at the dip in temperatures in the 1910s, corresponding to a cold PDO, rising temps from the '20s to the early '40s during a warm PDO, and then the warming ends in the very year that the PDO went cold again. Cooling (or leveling off if you must see it that way) occured from the '40s through 1978 during the cold PDO, and then the PDO went warm again until 1998. Since then the PDO has been starting to go cold again, and the temperatures have been flat-lining since 2000! Don't contradict your own graph.

And El Nino Modokis only been seen for 30 years? What happened 30 years ago? I'll tell you, satellites started measuring both atmosphere and ocean temperatures, starting our reliable and complete global record of SSTs and air temperature. Before that it was a lot harder to tell exactly what the El Nino looked like, so only after we had satellites could we figure out there were "different types" of El Ninos. When you look at the physical processes in the Pacific, you will see that "Modoki" El Ninos are more common during cold PDOs. Yes a cold PDO doesn't guarantee a strong La Nina this winter, but it certainly guarantees the death of this El Nino during the summer. The CFS thought the way you did during this winter, and forecasted El Nino to persist and refuse to go away during this summer. Guess what really happened, we're shoveling crow onto the CFS as it has shifted in line with the other models in forecasting a trend to neutral and weak-moderate La Nina.


There's a correlation between the PDO and global temperatures, but there's no overall upward or downward trend when you consider the combined effects of the PDO and AMO. There's an upward trend in global temperatures, and without a long-term downward trend in either the PDO or AMO, those oscillations are not enough to erase global warming. The decadal and multidecadal oscillations have trended negative before, and we didn't sink into an ice age, so it's ridiculous to claim that those two alone could put an end to global warming.

El Nino may give way to La Nina this summer, but it could just as easily set back in by early 2011, contradicting JB's claim that 2011-2012 will be cold. Look at your own analog year of 1964, when a La Nina developed but El Nino came back by June 1965.
Quoting Levi32:


Right and Al Gore doesn't have a political agenda? Please....which one is making the money off of this argument, Gore or Bastardi?? Ask yourself which one is more inclined to tell the truth. That article wasn't done by Accuweather, so don't complain about it.


Remember Dr. Masters' entry stating that the fossil fuel and auto "skeptic" denial organizations spent fourteen times more money than the environmental groups? S. Fred Singer, for example set up lobby groups that recieved over $470,000 from ExxonMobil in 2002-03 alone. Link
Quoting Patrap:



AL dosent publish,and this aint FOX,

LOL
One man isnt a ideology,and demeaning a Man,any man,who has served the country in many capacities, for doing his best to educate the masses does him a disservice young Jedi.


yeah cmon levi, i mean we wouldn't have the internet without him...
Quoting Levi32:


Eerie isn't it....a warning about how the steering patterns could shape up and hit some populated areas if the setting is right. Everyone should be ready.


The trouble is, both Haiti and New Orleans REALLY need a break right now from hurricanes.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Stormchaser..where did you pull up that second loop?


I have it saved on my photobucket.

Original images come from here.
Quoting hurricane23:


We typically see an increase in TC activity -- both frequency and intensity --in seasons immediately following an El Nino event...as long as it isn't a strong La Nina event with howling upper-level easterlies that shear off tropical waves and/or make them propagate westward toof ast for the low-level circulation and convergence zone/forcing to organize. A weak La Nina pattern like we had in 2005 produces the most favorable upper-level environment for TCs to develop and become quite intense. Even if el nino goes poof during the coming months i'am still having a hard time believing there wont be any lingering effects from this strong Nino that (could) trouble the hurricane season. As i stated a few days back it is the nature of warm-core lows in the tropics to spin up and become Cat 5's, and it is the environment -- mostly wind shear -- that modulates the intensity.


2005 was actually more of an El Nino than a La Nina.

SST anomalies for May 1, 2005 (notice the 3C anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific!):



EPac El Nino anomalies peaked around May 5, which is probably why spring predictions for the season stayed low. This could actually happen again this year as the subsurface warm anomaly migrates upward to near 100W around May.

By September 1, the equator had cooled down into a mix of El Nino and La Nina-like conditions (just like what's expected for this season):

That site has been down for a long time. Hope they get it back up and going.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The unnamed May 22nd, 2009 Tropical Storm in the GOMEX. Likely to be added during the PSA.



I think that was the system that I thought would develop into a tropical storm after looking at GFS models. I predicted by then that the first storm of the season would form by May 23.
Hadn't checked the lowest level atmo temps all week. Climo wise we always about seem to take a little dive this week but not this year & wow..we are so above past years & have been since Jan 11th. To run above the rest for a month was odd but now for 2 months with the spread widening is crazy. Should be an interesting year.
Quoting Levi32:


That's all you've got? Lol....Al Gore doesn't understand all the physics of Meteorology. He simply shouts anything he hears that agrees with what he says. Why do you think he refuses to debate every time he's asked? Why should he be scared to publicly debate with somebody if he's so right? He was dead wrong on this one.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm out for a while, later all.


Al Gore probably doesn't have the time to debate every single time, and science isn't all about debate. I read a book about a contributor to the IPCC who was asked to debate for a right-wing talk show, and it turned out that the commentor was extensively biased and wouldn't even listen to the person's points, and at one point he asked "you really aren't interested in the answers to these questions, are you?" Also, simply bringing up Al Gore in a debate about global warming suggests you're a climate denier.
This upcoming Hurricane season just has an odd feeling to it.

I dont like the way things are shaping up as shown by the long range climo models.
Quoting Patrap:



AL dosent publish,and this aint FOX,

LOL
One man isnt a ideology,and demeaning a Man,any man,who has served the country in many capacities, for doing his best to educate the masses does him a disservice young Jedi.


"Don't shoot the messenger".

Attacking a single person in any debate or discussion about a global issue simply makes the attacker's standpoint moot.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah cmon levi, i mean we wouldn't have the internet without him...


FALSE. Link
You decide...

Quoting Patrap:



AL dosent publish,and this aint FOX,

LOL
One man isnt a ideology,and demeaning a Man,any man,who has served the country in many capacities, for doing his best to educate the masses does him a disservice young Jedi.


Pat....I'm not attacking him personally, as most of these people are indeed nice, good people. Don't turn this into a "he's an american hero, so don't flame him for anything at all" thing. That's utter crap Pat. With all due respect, it is. I am not demeaning his person but I am condemning his agenda and his refusal to look at the other side of the argument. If he doesn't understand the other side, he can't prove that his side is true.

I don't attack or hate people personally. I dislike their ways of practicing science and the political polution of scientific objectivity. To say that I'm demeaning a man by challenging that is quite far from the truth.

And no one man isn't an ideology, but Al Gore has in many ways become the main face of global warming, and posting an article to refute HIS claims is not wrong. Period. I posted facts, not political opinion.
Oliver North was a military hero also???
And here, in the interest of fairness, is the idealogical voice of the deniers:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Al Gore probably doesn't have the time to debate every single time, and science isn't all about debate. I read a book about a contributor to the IPCC who was asked to debate for a right-wing talk show, and it turned out that the commentor was extensively biased and wouldn't even listen to the person's points, and at one point he asked "you really aren't interested in the answers to these questions, are you?" Also, simply bringing up Al Gore in a debate about global warming suggests you're a climate denier.


Lol does posting ONE article to refute ONE man's claims somehow make me narrow-minded? I have never debated anything about Al Gore on this blog in my life until that post. He made a claim, I posted an article refuting it, because that's my opinion. I fail to see how that makes me a bad guy here....honestly.

We have spent hours during the last couple weeks exchanging posts about SSTs, PDO, etc....all in reference to global warming. And yet you say I'm only bringing up Al Gore in my argument? Come on Astro.
Drak, You Got Mail from a month ago from me which you never answered lol. It's about...you know what.
Stormchaser2007 ~ took me a minute, you've got sea surface instead of near surface layer posted. Still scary.. at least it's been ~.33C above & not 1C above like the near surface.
AACCCHKKK!!
Press, how COULD you?
Quoting Skyepony:
Stormchaser2007 ~ took me a minute, you've got sea surface instead of near surface layer posted. Still scary.. at least it's been ~.33C above & not 1C above like the near surface.


Yeah...I kinda rushed to get that and accidentally shot the wrong graph.

My bad.
606. JRRP
i do not know if this season will look like this

but will be pretty active
Link
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah...I kinda rushed to get that and accidentally shot the wrong graph.

My bad.


All good, I hadn't checked that one all year..had forgot it was even there. Wild to see where it was at..

It's quite ironic that Drak of all people comes out and makes those predictions because he used to be noted as the most pronounced non-troll downcaster/fishcaster (2007-2008). And that's only his conservative numbers. Even eye can't justify downcasting now... :P

While Drak's numbers are more climatologically realistic...I'm still going to stand firm with my own preliminary predictions for this season.

20/11/5
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Drak, You Got Mail from a month ago from me which you never answered lol. It's about...you know what.


I think my post 534 answers the mail you sent me
Everyone starts anew this Hurricane season…past faux pas, attitudes and opinions are history. It’s a year later. I’ll listen to almost all the bloggers who seem to know what they are talking about.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Everyone starts anew this Hurricane season…past faux pas, attitudes and opinions are history. It’s a year later. I’ll listen to almost all the bloggers who seem to know what they are talking about.


Attitude, what attitude? No one on here has an attitude. Eveyone is always polite to everyone else. And faux pas??? Hasn't anyone ever told you it was rude to write in another language on the blog? (Joke mode)
Dis..Dat...buttload...Your vernacular has changed this season StormW...LOL
You sure put your foot in your mouth on that one Grothar!
By the way, four weeks ago I gave my predictions on the upcoming season and no one commented at all.

20 named storms
11 Hurricanes
4 major

1 depression that will cause a lot of flooding rains.
No comment.
Quoting Levi32:


Lol does posting ONE article to refute ONE man's claims somehow make me narrow-minded? I have never debated anything about Al Gore on this blog in my life until that post. He made a claim, I posted an article refuting it, because that's my opinion. I fail to see how that makes me a bad guy here....honestly.

We have spent hours during the last couple weeks exchanging posts about SSTs, PDO, etc....all in reference to global warming. And yet you say I'm only bringing up Al Gore in my argument? Come on Astro.


That comment was directed more specifically at the article, but in general deniers do tend to bring up Al Gore when a specific debate has nothing to do with any one person.
Quoting Skyepony:
Stormchaser2007 ~ took me a minute, you've got sea surface instead of near surface layer posted. Still scary.. at least it's been ~.33C above & not 1C above like the near surface.


My original calculation was that February 2010 was 0.96C above 1979-1998 levels. Apparently it was only +0.61C.
Quoting Drakoen:
The current conditions, climate model forecasts, and analog years are supportive of a well above-average year for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The heat build up in the tropics at this time surpasses that of 2005 due to the negative NAO resulting in below average tradewind speeds. Models show a decay of El Nino towards neutral conditions before the start of hurricane season and possibly working its way into La Nina conditions. Models show above average Sea-Surface temperatures in the MDR with the maximum heat building in the Caribbean in the August-September-October critical period. Wind shear forecasts from the CFS of shear being below average in the MDR between 2-4m/s slower represents a dominant subequatorial ridge.

My preliminary forecast is:

16-18 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes


21 storms
14 canes
5 majors
2 cat 5's

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No comment.


:P
Quoting JRRP:
i do not know if this season will look like this

but will be pretty active
Link


Wow! That's a good set-up for Fujiwharas. Now do you think there's the possibility for storms to round the north end of the Bermuda High around 35N and recurve southward west of Africa to become a born-again Cape Verde System or enter the Mediterranean?
Quoting StormW:


Damn Drak...where ya been?

Good to see ya! Definitely gonna have a buttload of knowledge on the blog this season.


I've been attending to my life... lol

Yes the season will be full of knowledge, but too much knowledge can be a bad thing.
Levi…your opinions are fine. Contrasting points of view are a good thing. Just for the record, what is your background in the study of meteorology or are you an avid and knowledgeable observer?
Quoting StormW:


No



The red is the Canary Islands and the smaller island group north of it is Madeira. According to Wikipedia the Canaries are around 28N and the Azores closer to 38N. Which storm are you referring to and when did it track toward that area?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


21 storms
14 canes
5 majors
2 cat 5's



Holy cow, that forecast is even more high-ended than mine (except for major hurricanes and we have the same number of cat. 5s).

Ontario fever? ;)
We're definately going to need these supreme primetime knowledgeable regs to be active on this blog for this upcoming active hurricane season.

StormW
StormJunkie
Drakoen
jphurricane2006
TampaSpin
StormChaser2007
CybrTeddy
IKE
WPBHurricane2006
kmanislander
Levi32
moonlightcowboy
nash28
BahaHurican



...to name a few. Oh, and Taz, for the lulz


Then there's the trolls, which make the blog
"interesting".



JFV/WeatherStudent
STORMTOP/stormkat/stormno
eye
apocalyps
Unfriendly
Mornez


...to name a few...

(oh, and the ones who post porn...)

-----------------------

"96L WILL develop and become a hurricane by Friday..."
"No you idiot, it's gonna go poof"

"It's going out to sea for sure, the trough is too strong"
"No it's gonna go west, look at that 1039 MB Bermuda/Azores High..."

"YOU GOD**** EASTCASTER!"
"You're an idiot westcaster. Troll!"
"It's going to hit the United States or else the sky isn't blue."
"FISH FISH FISH!!!!!"

"2010 is a BUST, it's already September and we've only had 11 named storms...BUST BUST BOOOORING BUST."

-------------------------------------


Yeah. This blog's hilariously epic. I'm pumped.
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i AM JUST LAUGHING AT YOUR PREDICTIONS
Quoting StormW:


I hear that!


I hope you heard the second part too ^^
633. JRRP
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wow! That's a good set-up for Fujiwharas. Now do you think there's the possibility for storms to round the north end of the Bermuda High around 35N and recurve southward west of Africa to become a born-again Cape Verde System or enter the Mediterranean?

Sorry but i am not an expert
i can´t answer with certainty that
:)
but all is possible
who knows
It is true what GeoffWPB said in an earlier blog about this being a new season, etc.

I remember a few nights when StormW and Drakoen were giving excellent reports about some storms and were in almost 99% agreement. It was entertaining as well as informative to watch a tennis-match like exchange of information. I hope that others like Levi32 and Astro might join in something like that this year. It would certainly make for some interesting evenings to see knowledegable people making observations. True, it was slow last season and I think the biggest debate was the correct spelling of Fujiwara (which is correct by the way)

I do hope that the experts will give us good information, and the rest of us will provide a few seconds of comedy relief when things become too tense on the blog. We won't be able to do it too much during the season for obvious reasons, and shouldn't. I truly believe that it is going to be a very active and interesting season based upon what Madame La Sorda told me.
I think Drak's "too much knowledge" is a euphemism for too many know-it-alls.
Quoting Grothar:
By the way, four weeks ago I gave my predictions on the upcoming season and no one commented at all.

20 named storms
11 Hurricanes
4 major

1 depression that will cause a lot of flooding rains.

With the TCHP setting up this year, your 11:4 hurricane-to-major hurricane ratio seems a bit thin. 11:5 or possibly 11:6.
I'll put my faith in Edgar Cayce rather than St. Olaf's Madame La Sorda.
Quoting altesticstorm10:

With the TCHP setting up this year, your 11:4 hurricane-to-major hurricane ratio seems a bit thin. 11:5 or possibly 11:6.


Ok, I don't want to be perceived as a "downcaster". I'll revise my prediction to 12:6, which is what I wanted to put downin the first place, but did not want to appear over zealous.
Intriguing.


March 13, 2010 (Warmer than yesterday)


March 12, 2010


April 11, 2005
Quoting bappit:
I think Drak's "too much knowledge" is a euphemism for too many know-it-alls.


In general, do you disagree with your own quote?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'll put my faith in Edgar Cayce rather than St. Olaf's Madame La Sorda.


Madame La Sorda was actually from Boston, about 2 blocks from where Cheers was located.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i AM JUST LAUGHING AT YOUR PREDICTIONS


Who was that addressed to? The Caribbean is expected to be pretty active this year.
Drak, what do you mean by "early start"? Like how early? For instance, when will we see our "G" storm, in your opinion? July?
Quoting Grothar:
It is true what GeoffWPB said in an earlier blog about this being a new season, etc.

I remember a few nights when StormW and Drakoen were giving excellent reports about some storms and were in almost 99% agreement. It was entertaining as well as informative to watch a tennis-match like exchange of information. I hope that others like Levi32 and Astro might join in something like that this year. It would certainly make for some interesting evenings to see knowledegable people making observations. True, it was slow last season and I think the biggest debate was the correct spelling of Fujiwara (which is correct by the way)

I do hope that the experts will give us good information, and the rest of us will provide a few seconds of comedy relief when things become too tense on the blog. We won't be able to do it too much during the season for obvious reasons, and shouldn't. I truly believe that it is going to be a very active and interesting season based upon what Madame La Sorda told me.


So there are two types of "tennis-match exchanges of information": agreements and disagreements. Both can be informative just as long as it stays friendly and does not become excessively off-topic.
Quoting StormW:


It was good. Ya, Drak and I have had our little tiffs, but one thing I'm impressed with is how he has expanded his knowledge, just in the past year. Him, and Levi too...these guys have really studied their butt's off!!


It is becoming more obvious they know an awful lot. I wish you all well.
Quoting Grothar:


Madame La Sorda was actually from Boston, about 2 blocks from where Cheers was located.


Okay...sat two seats away from Norm and Cliff.
.."I gotta tell ya folks..the wunderground blogger's have intuition and experience beaucoup, and were glad to see um every season"..


Back to u guys in the Studio..

Unfortunately, Drak knowing an awful lot spells double trouble for us and the Caribbean this upcoming hurricane season.
Trust me...once the season starts, off topic comments and posters will be gone!
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Intriguing.


March 13, 2010 (Warmer than yesterday)


March 12, 2010


April 11, 2005


This year's SSTs compared to last year (March 6):

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


So there are two types of "tennis-match exchanges of information": agreements and disagreements. Both can be informative just as long as it stays friendly and does not become excessively off-topic.


There you go again Astro, trying to start another argument! LOL Yes, Astro you are correct. It is much more interesting to see an exchange of information rather than unfriendly debate. It impresses no one.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Drak, what do you mean by "early start"? Like how early? For instance, when will we see our "G" storm, in your opinion? July?


Early start as in seeing a storm form in May. Pointing out when a specific storm will form, I don't think can be reasonably given out at this time.
The Gulf remains frigid, though it was posted earlier that it will likely "skyrocket" fairly soon and warm to at least slightly above average levels in time for the start of hurricane season.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Levi…your opinions are fine. Contrasting points of view are a good thing. Just for the record, what is your background in the study of meteorology or are you an avid and knowledgeable observer?


My background consists of nothing officially impressive because I just graduated high school a month ago. I have read books my whole childhood and learned a whole ton from watching Joe Bastardi, and from being on this site being able to converse with experts. I still have a lot to learn and I hope I get the privilege to go to a college with a Meteorology program.
It's only mid-March. Things can change. Drak could change his forecast as many times as Bill Grey does. But I can attest to the fact, he is pretty accurate.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Holy cow, that forecast is even more high-ended than mine (except for major hurricanes and we have the same number of cat. 5s).

Ontario fever? ;)


these numbers are current pick with current conditions
these numbers will change as current conditions change
we wait on eastern waves and see the angle and strengh they begin rolling off
lots left to come into play current indices are showing enhanced activity watch east pacfic also part of the tale see what becomes of it
fast start in pacific slow start for atlantic
slow start in pacific fast start in atlantic

in 77 days we will know more
2010 Hurricane season prediction:

14 new trolls

7 chat room types who never read back to see
their questions were answered already

2 tropical amanda/amander look alikes

1 new JFV shower curtain
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Trust me...once the season starts, off topic comments and posters will be gone!

I'll be satisfied when the word "GW" gets met by the admins with a permaban.

Don't count out the trolls though, every hurricane season there's always STORMTOP (or one of his 50 alts), JFV, and it seems there's a few uncanny spammers, people dissing the NHC and set-in-stone forecasts made by experts, a guy or two with an obscene username, and someone posting porn. It just makes me laugh -- mostly at their stupidity.
663. xcool
Quoting RTLSNK:
2010 Hurrican season prediction:

14 new trolls

7 chat room types who never read back to see
their questions were answered already

2 tropical amanda/amander look alikes

1 new JFV shower curtain

who, Stormyeyes?


and LOL at the shower curtain
Looks to me that Ului is trying to get her act together.
Thankfullly..the Good Dr. Masters Blog dosent exist to satisfy any one blogging individual.

Those interested in the science of GW and CC,as well as his tropical expertise.. enjoy His entries on the matters at hand globally,...and admire his openness to dissent on the matters he post and on occasion actually interacts with folks in this entry.

I know of no other PHD's blog in the Blogoshere that does such.

So for that, Im always grateful to him for allowing us to add our lil slices of the pie here as well.

Quoting Grothar:


There you go again Astro, trying to start another argument! LOL Yes, Astro you are correct. It is much more interesting to see an exchange of information rather than unfriendly debate. It impresses no one.


Hawk!!!!
24ºC isn't exactly warm enough for tropical development.
Quoting Ameister12:
Looks to me that Ului is staring to get her act together.


She should gradually regain her organization as she continues to increase her distance from the upper low to the northeast, as well as TC Tomas.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
24C isn't exactly warm enough for tropical development.




Its March ...LOL
Quoting Grothar:


There you go again Astro, trying to start another argument! LOL Yes, Astro you are correct. It is much more interesting to see an exchange of information rather than unfriendly debate. It impresses no one.


So talking about an argument will start an argument? Is this a Self-reference?

Seriously though, we do tend to have a debate every time someone alludes to global warming, but the debates aren't always unfriendly and can become rather informative.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
24ºC isn't exactly warm enough for tropical development.


24
before ya know it
it will be 26 by late april
27 in early may
28 by the start of june
For the heck of it, I'm reiterating my call for a mildly above average season. I'm sticking with 13 tropical storms, excluding subtropicals. 7 hurricanes. 3 majors. And that actually is an above average season
Quoting RTLSNK:
2010 Hurricane season prediction:

14 new trolls

7 chat room types who never read back to see
their questions were answered already

2 tropical amanda/amander look alikes

1 new JFV shower curtain


Chat room types? I go in the chat room occasionally yet I still have time to check the blog. But during the hurricane season the comments will come quickly and any time 10 minutes pass without one comment the blog will be said to have "died".
Quoting Patrap:
Thankfullly..the Good Dr. Masters Blog dosent exist to satisfy any one blogging individual.

Those interested in the science of GW and CC,as well as his tropical expertise.. enjoy His entries on the matters at hand globally,...and admire his openness to dissent on the matters he post and on occasion actually interacts with folks in this entry.

I know of no other PHD's blog in the Blogoshere that does such.

So for that, Im always grateful to him for allowing us to add our lil slices of the pie here as well.



According to post 661, that kind of post would be met with a permaban. Which is kind of exaggerating the forbiddeness of the topic. And AGW isn't a word, it's an abbrevation.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
24ºC isn't exactly warm enough for tropical development.


Remember Epsilon? It became a hurricane over 21-24C SSTs and moderate shear.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


So talking about an argument will start an argument? Is this a Self-reference?

Seriously though, we do tend to have a debate every time someone alludes to global warming, but the debates aren't always unfriendly and can become rather informative.


That was a good "LINK" I have to keep that for future reference. When I see the GW debates, it always reminds me of the old "Abbot & Costello routine about "Niagara Falls or "Susquehanna". The old timers will know what I mean. Maybe somewhere, somehow, someone will post a YouTube of the skit to show you how the GW debate is like that. It is really funny, you should watch it when you have time.

woosh!

Good evening and goodnight!
Just popping in and out...
Making up for the hour lost this morning.
Quoting Grothar:
...and the rest of us will provide a few seconds of comedy relief when things become too tense on the blog.


Talking about me behind my back again are you? ;)
Chicklit do you remember this? Link
I am always serious on here...especially when my pipes are freezing.
Hi SSI Guys...Um no. I didn't take an interest in atmospheric science until after the historic 2004 season. Before that my main interest had always been cloud formations and puddles.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (940 hPa) located at 12.9S 159.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/12hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.2S 158.9E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 13.5S 158.2E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 14.0S 158.2E - 125 knots (CAT 5)
72 HRS: 15.7S 159.6E - 125 knots (CAT 5)

Additional Information
==========================
Analysis based on embedded centre with light grey surround and dark grey centre.

DT is 5.0, MET is 5.0 also, Final T 5.0. CI held at 5.5

System has weakened slightly over the last 12 to 18 hours as northern outflow channel has weakened. Outflow to south remains very strong.

---
going away from Australia but towards New Caledonia?
Pcola Dan...was in your lovely town a week ago tonight....stayed at Pcola Beach...loved it...it's great spot
Blue crawfish featured in Audubon Insectarium exhibit


By Richard Thompson, The Times-Picayune
March 12, 2010, 6:23PM


White tigers? Yes. Albino alligators? Heard of that.

But blue crawfish?

You better believe it.

A new exhibit at the Audubon Insectarium features a rare and unexpected member of the "Red Swamp" crawfish species. What's different? You guessed it. It's blue.

"Most visitors ask if they taste the same," said Jayme Necaise, director of animals and visitor programs at the Audubon Insectarium, located in the U.S. Custom House on Canal Street. "None of us have ever had the heart to put them in a pot and boil them up."

blue_crawfish_photographed.JPGMichael DeMocker/The Times-PicayuneIn the wild, one of about every 10,000 crawfish is blue.

The crawfish on display aren't actually the blue critters that are found in the wild. Experts estimate about 1 of every 10,000 turn that color.

Instead, they are crawfish that Juliette Delabbio, director of Northwestern State University's Aquaculture Research Center, turned blue in her lab by altering the crustaceans' environment. Delabbio is expected to publish a paper soon on the blue crawfish phenomenon.

Audubon officials says the color change is likely the result of factors such as the crustaceans' diet, the water they live in, and their exposure to light.

Quoting PcolaDan:


Talking about me behind my back again are you? ;)


Whoops! Caught again!
Rising Temperatures in the Midst of Heavy Snow?

The decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest in the modern record. "Piecing Together the Temperature Puzzle" illustrates how NASA satellites enable us to study possible causes of climate change. The video explains what role fluctuations in the solar cycle, changes in snow and cloud cover, and rising levels of heat-trapping gases may play in contributing to climate change.

For more info on NASA and Climate Change, visit:
http://climate.nasa.gov


Quoting Grothar:


That was a good "LINK" I have to keep that for future reference. When I see the GW debates, it always reminds me of the old "Abbot & Costello routine about "Niagara Falls or "Susquehanna". The old timers will know what I mean. Maybe somewhere, somehow, someone will post a YouTube of the skit to show you how the GW debate is like that. It is really funny, you should watch it when you have time.




Abbott & Costello were big Crawfish Fans too...
Only 9:25 EST and still busy in here!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sorry, but the "Three Stooges" routine was not as funny as Abbott & Costello! You are giving the younger bloggers the wrong impression. They might grow up to believe that everything is a hoax and made up. We can't have that now can we?
That would be 10:26 pm EST..LOL

Since its now 9:26 CDT

Pat...tell Miz T Our Lady of Guadalupe is Fats Dominoes' wifes' parish
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Only 9:25 EST and still busy in here!


9:25?
Check this out:
Loop

Anyway...goodnight!
Monday will come early tomorrow.
Quoting presslord:
Pcola Dan...was in your lovely town a week ago tonight....stayed at Pcola Beach...loved it...it's great spot


Thankfully there are still a few sand dunes left, especially if you head east some to protected land. Between development and hurricanes, things are pretty flat now. That being said, kind of a nice place. :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Only 9:25 EST and still busy in here!


Someone got more sleep than they were supposed to last night.....LOL.
Patrap enjoyed your you tube Betsey post. Nice to see my childhood idle mentioned early in the story. I guess only the few have a clue about this season as for me I'll wait and see, but do enjoy their discussions. I want to wait and see the ull's breakup that have been over the western Atlantic the last few seasons.Although as we all know it only takes one.
Quoting Drakoen:br

He is in Indiana! Didn't you know?
Dan...it's not nearly as over developed as some of the other Gulf Coasst beaches...we stayed at the hampton Inn...was really quite nice...
A little trivia...Abbot and Costello, along with Groucho Marx couldn't stand the Three Stooges.
Shear is Like gas..it will come and go.


Predicting shear now to any individual seasons outcome isnt within the fold of modeling as far as I know.





Levi, Drak and Pat...Paying attention!
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Any predictions for shear this season?


Well shear is already lower than normal across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and neutral to weak La Nina conditions are expected during most of the hurricane season. This generally favors a weaker subtropical jet displaced further to the north, which means less strong westerlies shearing storms and more weak equatorial ridging that is favorable for storm formation. It is hard to say for certain exactly how shear will turn out in any given year, but the general pattern so far supports lower-than-normal wind shear in the deep tropics.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A little trivia...Abbot and Costello, along with Groucho Marx couldn't stand the Three Stooges.


Another bit of Trivia before I sign off. The part of Rhett Butler in "Gone with the Wind" was written with Groucho Marx in mind for the part. Author Mitchell was very disappointed when he wasn'st chosen.
So the shear is below average. Doom!
Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap enjoyed your you tube Betsey post. Nice to see my childhood idle mentioned early in the story. I guess only the few have a clue about this season as for me I'll wait and see, but do enjoy there discussions. I want to wait and see the ull's breakup that have been over the western Atlantic the last few seasons.Although as we all know it only takes one.



Numbers are fun and something some must have to quantify a season..

Me,..well,if ya cant tell me where and when,..its all MOOT.

Preparation is the Only sure bet to have a edge on the unpredictable Atlantic Hurricane Season.


And the one you mention could have someone 's Zip this year
Quoting presslord:
Dan...it's not nearly as over developed as some of the other Gulf Coasst beaches...we stayed at the hampton Inn...was really quite nice...


That's what I like about it. The fight is still on though, different developers wanting to do various things, us old timers who remembers the old affordable cinder block beach houses, those trying to build it up as expensive 2500" sq ft beach houses... We have spent the last 30 years trying to decide what kind of tourist traffic we want to cater to. :)
Agree Pat...predicting shear 3-4 months out is not logical...Read some of posts in the archives from a year ago. Yikes!
Pensacola Beach, FL: site of the first Catholic mass in the US held in 1559 by Spanish sailors upon their arrival there...
Quoting Grothar:


Another bit of Trivia before I sign off. The part of Rhett Butler in "Gone with the Wind" was written with Groucho Marx in mind for the part. Author Mitchell was very disappointed when he wasn'st chosen.


Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn. Now guess the secret word. :)
Its always the same "March Madness" here as in NCAA Round Ball.

Things will start slowly,ramp up Late July and from Mid Aug-Early October we will have the Meat of the Large CV storms to contend with.

The pattern changes some from year to year,as to Numbers,but within it..every year,is the default setting as to whats expected.


Stop the snowball fights over the science of global warming.

Other countries (notably China) are quietly going about building the infrastructure needed to be leaders in the new, clean energy economy.

"What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it"? (question of my 11 year old daughter to a panel of "experts" at a major university at a Focus the Nation event, January 31, 2008).

Only the IPCC representative had a credible answer (he takes the bus to work and only flies twice a year for his work).

The rest were platinum frequent fliers who admitted they are doing nothing.

So what is everybody doing?
Quoting altesticstorm10:
So the shear is below average. Doom!



Tropical Cyclone Tomas's eyewall is beginning to affect Fiji:

So what is everybody doing?
Action: Quote | Ignore User

distilling my own whiskey...please don't tell the revenuers...
Why,..Im Eating blue crawfish Boiled with my Solar Oven usually with a Cool,or tepid beer nowadays..



Current wind shear anomalies:

Quoting presslord:
Pensacola Beach, FL: site of the first Catholic mass in the US held by Spanish sailors upon their arrival there...


I don't know if you saw "the Cross" on top of a sane dune while you were here. That is symbolic of the first mass after Don Tristan DeLuna landed. This dune was fenced off "to protect the dunes", a big thing in the 70's. Shortly thereafter dunes next to it were bulldozed for construction. That was the beginning of the long fight over what direction the beach would head. It all started with hypocrisy and good old boy politics. I think we are fortunate that there have been those who have fought so hard to keep our beach accessible. The Cross, has kind of always been a symbol of the beginning of it all.
724. JRRP
Quoting altesticstorm10:
If global warming occurs it's a natural earthly cycle stage that has occurred on this planet in the past and will occur again, the same goes for global cooling. On the other hand -- anthropogenic global warming is a political hoax issued by U.S. left-wing propagandists that blames humans, who are not as worldly powerful as these mentally slanted liberals want you to believe, for the earth's "warming stage" or "trend". It's not science, it's a hoax.

THE END.

Back to the tropics.

Any predictions for shear this season?

something like this?
Quoting Patrap:
Why,..Im Eating blue crawfish Boiled with my Solar Oven usually with a Cool,or tepid beer nowadays..





Do you ever eat peanut and jelly or bologna sandwiches?
very cool Dan
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever eat peanut and jelly or bologna sandwiches?


..Ask presslord,never

..why we shared a Meal Tuesday next to St. Louis Cathedral in New Orleans,..I had the Shrimp Creole and Press had,..Jambalaya I think


We ate here

Menu,
For those not aware, Pensacola was the first settlement by Europeans in America. Hurricane spoiled things though and scared the Spanish away for over 130 years before they came back.
not just Jambalaya...it was the best dadgummed Jambalya ever...
Quoting presslord:
not just Jambalaya...it was the best dadgummed Jambalya ever...


If you had let me know you were coming, you could have had the best dadgummed mullet ever. (Yes we eat it here, and love it. A benefit of sand on the bottom of our waters and not mud.)
Dan...we weren't sure where we were gonna light that day...sorry i missed the mullet...had to suffer through Hooter's instead...
Australian ENSO forecasts are continuing to trend downward (blue dashed lines are the latest runs, red dashed lines are older). The POAMA shows a more conservative forecast, similar to the CFS, taking us to central-neutral conditions by August.

I thought Saint Augustine was the earliest city in the U.S. 1516. Somebody named Ponce De Leon. Am I off buy a century I hope not.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
12:00 PM FST March 15 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.


For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, LAKEBA, VANUA BALAVU, MOALA,MATUKU,TOTOYA, CICIA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.


At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (930 hPa) located at 15.5S 179.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Cyclone has intensified over the last 12 hours. Cyclone lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered southerly by the deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on DT of 5.5

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

Consensus of the global models agree on southerly track and intensification, but the cyclone is expected to move into a increasingly sheared environment and weaken south of 20S.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.7S 179.4W - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 18.0S 179.5W - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 22.5S 177.8W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 8:30 AM UTC...
Hooters, Presslord how many owls did you see. Are their wings really good to eat.
Actor Peter Graves (TV's Mission Impossilbe and the Airplane movies) passed away today.

150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 159.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH A 25 NM EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 130 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 20P HAS SUSTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT THAT
ENHANCING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 20P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
IN AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU
24. TC ULUI WILL THEN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS. BY TAU 72, THE
STR WILL BUILD BACK IN AND TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL PREVAIL WITH THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE
BUT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THROUGH
TAU 36. MODEL SPREAD THEN INCREASES WITH THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE
TURN SOUTHWARD. GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS FAVOR AN EARLIER AND SHARPER
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST PRESUMABLY DUE TO A STRONGER NER. THIS FORECAST
IS TO THE WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A LESS SHARP POLEWARD
PROGRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P
(TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
KOG..why post in red?
Quoting EnergyMoron:
So what is everybody doing?

Plugging things back in...had an electrical distraction-free weekend with the family.

Saturday morning I went around unplugging everything and collecting batteries from various devices. No TV, no internet, no computer, no Nintendo, no Pod, no cell phones. Power wires and batteries in a sack in the closet...bored? Go outside, or something. Was a very fun and productive weekend with the family. I think we are going to do that at least once a month...possibly more often in the future.

Unplugged is quite nice, sometimes.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I thought Saint Augustine was the earliest city in the U.S. 1516. Somebody named Ponce De Leon. Am I off buy a century I hope not.


St Augustine is the oldest continuous city. Was established a few years later by the Spanish. Pensacola was the first attempt in 1559, but abandoned because of the hurricane. St Augustine was deemed more politically and militarily necessary when Spain decided to try again in the early 1560s. Ponce de Leon was actually a few years earlier than either settlement, the first to explore Florida.
Good for you Aggie! Family always comes first!
Quoting Patrap:


..Ask presslord,never

..why we shared a Meal Tuesday next to St. Louis Cathedral in New Orleans,..I had the Shrimp Creole and Press had,..Jambalaya I think


We ate here

Menu,

Ohhh, the tomato-y creole-style jambalaya there is great! I usually prefer the other style, myself...unless I am there.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good for you Aggie! Family always comes first!

When the 5-year-old knows the nuances of the DVR better than he knows (generally) how to play soccer...well, there's a sign. Unplug.
Gotcha Pcola you know how tourist towns are a like. Since if you are in Florida for the last 40 to 50 yrs. you are from one.
Tomas may be 'worst cyclone ever'



* From correspondents in Auckland
* From: AAP
* March 15, 2010 11:39AM
A TROPICAL cyclone heading for Fiji may be the worst cyclone to ever strike the South Pacific nation.

Fiji Meteorological Service senior forecaster, Matt Boterhoven, said Cyclone Tomas had intensified overnight and was now a category four storm.

Mr Boterhoven said the northern island of Vanua Levu was most at risk, with winds likely to peak at over 200km/h in the next 24 hours.

"There's going to be a whole lot of flooding," he said late this morning.

"(It's a) very destructive hurricane force area so they'll be getting quiet a battering over the next 12 hours."

According to local media reports, Cyclone Tomas claimed its first victim yesterday, when 31-year-old Fijian woman was killed trying to save her family from being washed away in huge waves that crashed into the coast of Vanua Levu.
A spokeswoman for Fiji Police, Ema Mua, said the nation was undertaking last minute preparations for a "disastrous" thrashing.

"We were looking at the difference between the forces of all the cyclones that have happened in Fiji," said Mua, as her colleagues hammered boards to windows.

"It's moving very, very slowly but at the same time it's picking up a lot, a lot, of force.

"That is why the categories have been proceeding.

"If it doesn't lessen down then it could be the worst to ever hit the country."

Australian tourist, Clare Melvin, said she was evacuated from her accommodation at Plantation Island yesterday afternoon.

"They basically said to us, 'If you've got kids, you should go'," Ms Melvin said.

She had been holidaying in Fiji with her husband and two small children for a week.

"Everybody just jumped on this big boat and came back (to the mainland) and they just threw our luggage on the ground and we just all had to scramble for it," she said.

"It was ridiculous."

She said women were crying in the hotel lobby and everyone was "pretty scared".

"All the Fijians are kind of freaking out themselves, you can tell, cause there's no animals around," the Sydneysider said.

"It's unusually still. It's really weird.

"It's just overcast and kind of dark, but yesterday afternoon the sky was a really strange colour, it was like dark orange and black."

Tourism Fiji said Air New Zealand and V-Australia had cancelled all Fiji services until further notice and Air Pacific said it would postpone flights to Fiji ex-Auckland, Brisbane and Sydney until tomorrow.


Cyclone Ului is moving west while Cyclone Tomas threatens Fiji

5-10 knots above average in the Gulf and below average in the EPAC?

El Nino all over again!
this is not goood this is not good


INCOMING: This morning, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a halo CME emerging from the vicinity of sunspot 1054: movie. The cloud appears to be heading toward Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on or about March 17th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


Link



Quoting gordydunnot:
Gotcha Pcola you know how tourist towns are a like. Since if you are in Florida for the last 40 to 50 yrs. you are from one.


I grew up in Pensacola and remember the quadricentennial celebration in 1959. Last year we had a 450 year celebration and had a visit from King Juan Carlos and Queen Sophia from Spain. As a side note, I don't believe we got our name from any "Panzacola" Indians, but that's a whole other dissertation.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
5-10 knots above average in the Gulf and below average in the EPAC?

El Nino all over again!


The gulf doesn't really matter in terms of shear this time of year, as the subtropical jet regularly flows directly above it during the winter. Lower-than-normal shear values in the Caribbean and the deep tropical Atlantic are what bring attention at this time of the year.

Edit: if you were talking about the CFS forecast instead of the current conditions, then disregard this comment lol.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
KOG..why post in red?
its a warning
Quoting Levi32:


if you were talking about the CFS forecast instead of the current conditions, then disregard this comment lol.

.
last 48hrs of Cyclone Ului, with EWRC at the end.


Quoting Tazmanian:
this is not goood this is not good


INCOMING: This morning, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a halo CME emerging from the vicinity of sunspot 1054: movie. The cloud appears to be heading toward Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on or about March 17th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


Link



Quoting Tazmanian:
this is not goood this is not good


INCOMING: This morning, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a halo CME emerging from the vicinity of sunspot 1054: movie. The cloud appears to be heading toward Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on or about March 17th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


Link





It's not too bad....this sunspot is only producing C-class flares.

Quoting Levi32:


It's not too bad....this sunspot is only producing C-class flares.




but still thats strong right ??? and its comeing are way
Quoting Tazmanian:



but still thats strong right ??? and its comeing are way


Like they said it could cause some geomagnetic storms and aurora, but the only reason it's a big deal is because we just went through the solar minimum and haven't seen any C-class or higher flares in a very long time. In a few years when we're near the solar maximum C-class flares will be an almost daily occurrence. Only M-class and X-class flares are really considered major events.
Quoting Levi32:


Like they said it could cause some geomagnetic storms and aurora, but the only reason it's a big deal is because we just went through the solar minimum and haven't seen any C-class or higher flares in a very long time. In a few years when we're near the solar maximum C-class flares will be an almost daily occurrence. Only M-class and X-class flares are really considered major events.



how bad is M Class and X Class???
what are geomagnetic storms????
what kind of radiation could we see?
Chill out, man. We're going to be alright.
Quoting Tazmanian:
what are geomagnetic storms????
Quoting Tazmanian:
what kind of radiation could we see?


Well I'm not a solar scientist, but geomagnetic storms are where strong solar radiation, such as from a solar flare or CME, bombards the earth's atmosphere, resulting in strong auroral displays and sometimes disruptions in communication and electrical networks due to the electro-magnetic properties of the radiation.

This particular event is quite minor.
Quoting AussieStorm:
last 48hrs of Cyclone Ului, with EWRC at the end.


Here is Tomas

Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm not a solar scientist, but geomagnetic storms are where strong solar radiation, such as from a solar flare or CME, bombards the earth's atmosphere, resulting in strong auroral displays and sometimes disruptions in communication and electrical networks due to the electro-magnetic properties of the radiation.



nic
Good on you Atmoaggie!
Had a "snow crash" a couple of weeks ago and actually did other things. My nieces, nephews and grandkids come around here sometimes and sort of acknowledge Grandpa but they are still'Talking to their pockets'
Their wi/fi thingys screw up my router.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 4
5:00 PM EST March 15 2010
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (925 hPa) located at 13.0S 158.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/S/24hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 158.0E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS: 13.5S 157.5E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 14.3S 158.2E - 125 knots (CAT 5)
72 HRS: 16.4S 159.2E - 125 knots (CAT 5)

Additional Information
==========================
Analysis based on Vis pic with embedded centre.

DT is 6.0, MET is 6.0 also, Final T 6.0. CI is 6.0

System has reintensified during the past 6 hours with a better defined eye. Outflow to south remains very strong.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
18:00 PM FST March 15 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

For Fiji and Rotuma
====================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, EASTERN TIP OF VANUA LEVU, RABI, KIOA, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA, NAITAUBA, YACATA, KANACEA, MAGO, CICIA, BATIKI, MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, KORO, MAKOGAI, GAU, VANUA BALAVU, NAYAU, LAKEBA, KABARA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, BEQA, KADAVU AND THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUPS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.


At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (930 hPa) located at 16.1S 179.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Cyclone has intensified slightly over the last 6 hours. Cyclone lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Outflow good in all sectors. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered southerly by the deep northerly layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on OW eye and LG surround yielding DT 5.5

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

Consensus of the global models agree on southerly track and intensification, but the cyclone is expected to move into a increasingly sheared environment and weaken south of 20S.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.3S 179.6W - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 19.1S 179.5W - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 24.9S 176.2W - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 14:30 PM UTC...
Quoting altesticstorm10:
5-10 knots above average in the Gulf and below average in the EPAC?

El Nino all over again!


Shear is much below average for an El Nino year across most of the Atlantic ocean.
Good Morning Storm, Levi, and everyone else. Hope ya'lls mornin' is as beautiful as mine. Went on a emergency call this morning and saw an awesome sunrise over the river, 50 degrees. Wow, wish they could all be that pretty.
alaska has been bitter cold
60'S for highs all week till sat then back to winter for 3 or 4 days with some snow possible
looks like winters last blast hopefully
Good Morning. Possible "cold shot" aside, looks like very nice weather this week for the SE Conus and no severe weather over the next several days.....A nice start to Spring.


latet GFS-MRF shows the cold shot coming
Quoting msgambler:
Good Morning Storm, Levi, and everyone else. Hope ya'lls mornin' is as beautiful as mine. Went on a emergency call this morning and saw an awesome sunrise over the river, 50 degrees. Wow, wish they could all be that pretty.

Good morning.
Thousands flee as cyclone slams into Fiji
Pacific correspondent Campbell Cooney and wires, Monday March 15, 2010

A powerful cyclone has hit Fiji, damaging homes and crops and prompting thousands of evacuations.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas is now rated at Category Four and has made landfall over Fiji's northern islands.

There are no early reports of casualties, although reports said one woman drowned over the weekend in stormy seas.

The director of Fiji's Disaster Management Authority, Pajiliai Dobui, says many who lived in its path have been evacuated.

"About 5,000 are already taking shelter in most of the shelters of the northern division," he said.

Fiji's Meteorological Service says the cyclone is packing winds averaging up to 175 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify later today and into early Tuesday, with average wind speeds rising to 200kph, and gusts of up to 270kph.

Inia Seruiratu, the head official in the northern region, says weather conditions have worsened dramatically during the day.

"You can see trees swaying and likewise the electrical wires and cables that are running between the poles," he told state radio, adding that conditions would be worse in other areas.

Officials say communications have been lost with smaller islands closer to the eye of the cyclone.

There are reports of damage to homes, other buildings and crops, and Vanua Levu is without power today.

One resident, Alifereti Fisaitu, says his town has escaped damage, but others were not so lucky.

"We have got news from some of our relatives that entire villages, called Wainiika, Nuku and Vatu, are all under seawater and the villagers have fled to an evacuation centre," he said.

On its present track, the eye of Cylone Tomas is expected to pass to the east of Vanua Levu and the largest island Viti Levu, although many smaller islands will be close to its path.

Fiji's main centres were put under curfew overnight on Sunday. This was lifted during the day, except in the northern region, but is set to be reimposed nationwide tonight.

Schools have been closed and most public services suspended throughout the country.

Meanwhile, emergency officials in Solomon Islands are keeping watch on Tropical Cyclone Ului, which hit its southern provinces overnight.

There have been few reports of major damage and no reports of any lives lost.

The cyclone is in the Coral Sea, more than 1,400 kilometres north-east of Mackay in north Queensland, and is moving slowly west-south-west.

The weather bureau says it is unlikely to pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

- ABC/AFP
Good Morning StormW Good Evening Aussie,Great day on tap temps to 70 and less wind.
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning StormW Good Evening Aussie,Great day on tap temps to 70 and less wind.

less wind from you or from mother nature. j/ks
Models have ULUI missing Australia but going extremely close to the North Island of New Zealand.
Quoting AussieStorm:

less wind from you or from mother nature. j/ks

Thanks Aussie, I'm talking from Mother N.
Quoting severstorm:

Thanks Aussie, I'm talking from Mother N.

It was a beautiful blue day here in Sydney today. Overnight low was 57 daytime high was 81 and currently it's 66.
Goodnight all.
Stay safe
MAJOR flooding is expected across northern NSW in coming days, leading to predictions of scenes not witnessed since the great floods of 1990.

An evacuation order was issued for the Weilmoringle and Goodooga communities, in Brewarrina Shire, on Friday.

The State Emergency Service (SES) has warned residents to leave the area no later than tomorrow due to the risk of property damage.

An SES spokeswoman said today that residents were in the process of leaving their homes, with most organising alternative accommodation with family and friends.

It comes after heavy rain deluged southern parts of Queensland, causing the biggest floods in 100 years, some of which is now flowing across the border into NSW.

SES operations controller Tony Casey predicts the Weilmoringle and Goodooga flooding will cause "significant damage'' within the week.
"The forecast flooding is likely to cause significant damage to homes and will pose a direct threat to the residents if they wait too long before they evacuate,'' he said in a statement.

The Bureau of Meteorology says major flooding is also expected on the Culgoa, Bokhara, Birrie, Paroo, Barwon and Narran river systems, all in the state's north.

Flood levels are expected to exceed those of April 1990, when vast areas of land in northern NSW and southern Queensland were submerged and hundreds of homes damaged, the bureau added.
Other evacuation orders will be made if or when they are necessary, the SES says.

River levels in the north of the state are already high following heavy rain since Christmas.

They are now being increased further by heavy rain in Queensland, which is filtering into NSW.
Good afternoon everyone..

Just returned from a 7 day cruise from Mexico and western Caribbean and hate that I didn't have access to the WU on Friday night/Saturday!...we rocked and rolled from Cozumel back to New Orleans..sure glad that I had some Bonine and my sea legs with me - lol.
I know that winds were gusting over 60 MPH and now sure of the wave height..does anyone know the best place to get weather history for the GOM?
Evacuations, state of disaster declared after Cyclone Tomas slams into Fiji

* From correspondents in Suva
* From: AFP
* March 16, 2010 12:56PM




FIJI has declared a state of disaster in the cyclone-hit north and east as damage reports from the storm have risen sharply.

"The national disaster council has declared a state of disaster in the northern division and eastern division," National Disaster Management Office operations officer Anthony Blake said.

The powerful cyclone left a trail of damage through Fiji as winds averaging 175km an hour smashed into the Pacific island group today, forcing the evacuation of 10,000 people.

The main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu had been spared the worst of Cyclone Tomas's devastation since it slammed into the country yesterday but there were reports of extensive damage from some of the outlying islands.

There were no new reports of casualties after a woman drowned in rough seas at the weekend as the cyclone approached.

More than 10,000 people have fled to evacuation centres - mostly in the north of the country - as the storm damaged buildings and crops and brought down communications and power, while many low-lying areas were flooded.

By this morning, Tomas was over the Northern Lau group, to the east of the main islands, Fiji Meteorological Services director Rajendra Prasad said.

He said the average wind speed had increased slightly overnight to 175km an hour overnight but had peaked in intensity.

"The cyclone is expected to maintain its peak intensity for 12 hours or so before commencing a gradual weakening trend," Mr Prasad said.

Fiji Tropical Cyclone Centre senior forecaster Matt Boterhoven said there had been further reports of damage today.

"We had a report this morning from Lakeba, one of the larger islands in the Lau group, that two villages were flooded and some people had to be moved to higher ground," he told Radio New Zealand.

A sea wall also collapsed on another island in the group, he said.

"A lot of sea flooding is occurring and it's causing a significant impact in the northern and eastern parts of the Fiji group this morning," he said.

The impact of Cyclone Tomas is expected to lessen this evening as it moves south of Fiji.