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An unusually early and violent tornado season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on May 12, 2008

An EF-4 tornado with winds of 166-175 mph swept through Oklahoma and Missouri Saturday, killing 21 people. Hardest hit were the towns of Picher, OK, where six died, and Seneca, MO, where ten died. The violent tornado was up to a mile wide. It's been an unusually early and violent tornado season in the U.S. There have been 905 tornadoes so far this year, a total usually not seen until late July (Figure 1). Saturday's deaths bring the 2008 U.S. tornado death toll up to 96--the most tornado fatalities since 1998, when 130 people died. With at least another month left in peak tornado season, 2008 ranks as the 12th deadliest year in the 59-year record. The Picher tornado was the sixth violent EF-4 tornado of the year.


Figure 1. Cumulative tornado activity in the U.S. through May 11, compared to average. This year's 905 tornadoes match the total usually seen by late July. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Severe weather forecast
Severe weather is not expected today over the U.S., but more severe weather and tornadoes are expected Tuesday through Thursday in association with another powerful spring storm. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.

Amazing video: why not to take shelter in your car during a tornado
If you haven't seen it, the video captured by a surveillance camera during the Leighton, Alabama tornado on May 8 is a stunning testimonial of why one should not try to escape a tornado using a car. The EF-2 tornado with winds of 111-135 mph picked up cars like toys and tossed them into the air. A large number of tornado deaths and injuries occur when people try to escape the twister in their car and get caught by the violent winds.

Jeff Masters
TORNADO
TORNADO
11:05 am touched down on US Hiway 17 N and traveled approximately .5 mile on the ground turning over a covered utility trailer and breaking the tops out of many trees and then continued out into the marsh.I didn't even know I had caught it until I started processing images to upload here.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for another update......
awesome!!!!
Good Monday morning everyone. Thanks for another great update. I never even realized that we have had such a historic tornado season until I saw the graphic. Could hit record levels in terms of tornados in a year. I have never seen such dramatic video from a tornado in my life until the Leighton, Alabama tornado. Just amazing footage.
Thank you for the info Dr. Masters.


A large number of tornado deaths and injuries occur when people try to escape the twister in their car and get caught by the violent winds.


This can't be repeated enough:

If in your car and a tornado is imminent.....abandon your auto and seek shelter in a ditch or any depression in the ground.

Do NOT seek shelter under a highway overpass!
Do NOT remain in your vehicle!!

Just wanted to thank everyone who visited my site and read my hurricane season preview. Your comments are appreciated and will be taken into high consideration. Starting today, I will have more frequent tropical updates on my site as we edge closer to the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Thanks for the update.
Thanks for the update doc.
Wow, thanks for the update
Morning all

Thanks for the update Dr M. It was a very rough weekend for many!

This cell may have produced a tornado on Wadmalaw Island in SC. Still waiting on NWS verification. Our local office was very busy verifying in GA yesterday, and they will come back today to check the reports here to determine straight line or tornadic winds.


Thanks for the update, Dr. Master's
Morning HOG

I am pretty sure it is due to the much much tighter rotation of a tornado. It creates a much more violent environment. Basically if you have 100mph winds blowing N and then 20 yards away you have 100mph winds blowing S, it is much more damaging then having 100mph winds blowing one direction.

And cane winds can and will move cars sometimes.
Just wanted to let everyone know that I have posted my Tropical Update on my site.
14. JRRP
strong convection over african coast,
could be the next wave
Hi HOG

I'm guessing anythgin less than a Cat. 4 or 5 Hurricane doesn't generate the windspeeds required to get a car airborne. I think I saw once where an F5 tornado generated close to 300mph winds.

Thank Heaven Tornados don't cover hundreds of miles.

Lee
Greetings, all!

Mother Nature's Rampage continues:

China has a 7.5 earthquake




I wonder how China will handle this?


Significant Tornadoes of 2008
Updated 5/3/2008
Link
Hello Everyone,

Another Great Blog.....Dr. Masters!

I have a feeling that the worst is still to come. One report on EF 4's.......puts us at a total of 6 for the 2008 season. The next month could get really nasty!!!!!


I saw on the tube some people talking about they didnt have much warning.....That was in Oklahoma Saturday night.....Has anyone heard that?

I believe that was with the Big tornado that killed so many....
USGS Shake Map EASTERN Sichuan,China Link

M 7.8 - EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
Monday, May 12, 2008 at 06:28:00 UTC
Location: 31.1°N 103.3°E Depth: 10km Link
Mother Nature seems to be furious... Cyclones, Tornadoes, Earthquakes.. I hope her mood improves or who knows what we might see this hurricane season..

Is it my imagination that we are experiencing an increase in extreme weather? Or is it because the world is contantly getting smaller because of the realtime communication of the internet?
RMM....I've been pondering the same question for some time now...haven't come up with a good answer yet...but it's worth some thought....
The ability to communicate better together with the increase in population will almost certainly increase the numbers. Lots of tornados are not reported or verified every year because of their location. The more people the more area that is covered.
Sad news in China...thousands are dead, many more missing...
77, some cloud around overhead this am.
Looks like the main convection will stay south of us though. Not a lot of convect. anyway, as far as I can see.
17 earthquakes on this map:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/105_35.php
The Earth has rotated around the Sun approximately 4.5 billion times. We have only been keeping records of these trips for about 60 of those..........

4.5 billion.......60??????? I love to see the historical data over all those years.....Hurricanes and tornados, etc....

I dont believe that we can make an educated guess.......But thats just me!
The NWS servers are currently out.
I will post the storm surveys of the tornadoes in OK on Saturday when they come back online.
Then we can find out what warnings were issued regarding the EF4 tornado.
About 8000 fatalities so far in China Quake
weatherboy....your post reminded me of something funny from my youth....

My sister once tried to get our Dad to let her sunbath on the roof of our house because "...I'll be closer to the sun..."

Dad informed her that the extra 12 feet probably wouldn't make a hell of a lot of difference...
BTW...the same sister now has her doctorate in aeronautical engineering...and is, in fact, a rocket scientist...very scary...
Xinhua:
Urgent: Earthquake toll rises to 8,533
Tulsa NWS:

Below is a list of the tornadoes that occurred. National Weather Service survey teams are still determining the cause and extent of the damage at some locations. Therefore, this list is only preliminary.
Link
Yeah Pottery...the main convection will move over areas like Guyana and suriname. Oh well, LOL...
Some of the world's deadliest natural disasters

May 12, 11:09 AM (ET)
By The Associated Press


"A look at some of the deadliest natural disasters around the world in the past 40 years:

- May 2008: Earthquake (magnitude 7.8) hits Sichuan province in central China. Thousands are killed.

- May 2008: Cyclone Nargis strikes Myanmar, killing more than 30,000 and leaving an additional 30,000 missing.

- October 2005: Northern Pakistan earthquake (magnitude 7.6) kills about 78,000 people.


- August 2005: U.S. Gulf Coast Hurricane Katrina kills at least 1,600 people in Louisiana and Mississippi.

- December 2004: Indian Ocean tsunami (triggered by magnitude 9.0 earthquake) kills 230,000 in a dozen countries.

- December 2003: Southeastern Iran earthquake (magnitude 6.5) kills 26,000.

- August 1999: Western Turkey earthquake (magnitude 7.4) kills 17,000.

- October 1998: Central America Hurricane Mitch kills 9,000.

- April 1991: Bangladesh cyclone kills 140,000.

- June 1990: Northwestern Iran earthquake (magnitude 7.7) kills 50,000.

- July 1976: Northeastern China earthquake (magnitude 8.2) kills 240,000.

- November 1970: Bangladesh cyclone kills 300,000. World's deadliest cyclone on record."
NOAA Radios and the ability to be warned is Critical to survive a direct Tornado strike.
One can even have Cell Phone alerts today . 10minutes,4...event 2 Minutes is time critical and a gift of time in a way.
Time to take ACTION by seeking shelter in a Basement,Bathroom on the lowest floor,..or if in the open,even a ditch and cover ones head.

Purchase a NOAA Alert Radio today if you dont have one,purchase 2 and give the Gift of Early warning to a friend or Loved one.



http://www.emergencyemail.org/ Link

Back to the Tulsa NWS. Here is the Public Information Statement of what is available so far regarding the Saturday outbreak:



...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY INFORMATION FROM THE MAY
10TH TORNADO OUTBREAK...

...THIS INFORMATION MAY BE REVISED UPON FURTHER REVIEW...

Tornado warning siren. Rural Arkansas May 10 2008



Significant Tornadoes of 2008
Updated 5/3/2008 Link
From what I have been able to research.....there was definitely a tornado warning issued on the Picher tornado Saturday evening.


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
9. HouseofGryffindor 10:18 A
The tornado video with the cars is amazing. I wonder why hurricanes don't have the same effect on cars.

Their local vortices do. After Andrew, I saw a Caddy that was carried over a boat on a trailer, inside a building, and the boat never moved.
Over the past few minutes, I was watching visible satellite imagery from the African coast and noticed two features. Here is the satellite image and below it will be a description of the two features noted through observation.

1. At around 8W, there appears to be a nice tropical wave forming and moving off Africa. 456 had mentioned this in his update, but I see the axis between 10N and 1N. Will have to watch how it begins interacting with the ocean and its path to really define this as a tropical wave.
2. There appears to be evident low level (maybe lower mid-level) turning occuring with an impulse along the ITCZ at around 6N 28W moving due west at around 6kts. Convection has waned somewhat, but that is expected during the daytime. May have to watch for persistence and building convection. Hoping that 456 could help me out with analyzing this peculiar feature.
I played that tornado video several times over the weekend. People need to keep in mind that this was a very small tornado. Some of those F3, F4, F5 tornadoes would have probaly picked up those cars & tossed them a couple of feet or more.

I think people are in a touch situation if they are being advised to abandon their cars if a tornado is immenant. Don't you risk being sucked up in a tonado if you are unable to find a ditch or low lying area?
China's Olympic headaches are mounting... among the criticisms slated against the nation such as food control, lead in toys, human rights violations and the tensions in Tibet, Now we see what China is made of as they rehabilitate their cities and towns after this devastating quake, while trying to control a viscious and deadly strain of hand foot and mouth disease.

article on the virus outbreak
SAL Split Window Link
CNN: Reports: Twister kills two mothers protecting kin Link

PICHER, Oklahoma (CNN) -- Two mothers protecting family members were among the six people killed by a tornado that ripped through this Oklahoma border town on the eve of Mother's Day, according to reports.

A mother, her husband and their 4-year-old son were at home when the twister hit, blowing them from their house, according to the Picher Fire Department.

Rescuers discovered them about a block away from their house. The mother died huddled over her son, the fire department said. The husband suffered back and head injuries and was taken to a Tulsa hospital where his son is being treated for facial injuries.

Their names have not been released, but a source said the father was a coach and teacher at a nearby high school.
Some of those F3, F4, F5 tornadoes would have probaly picked up those cars & tossed them a couple of feet or more.


Yeah, a LOT more...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI HAS CONFIRMED
THE TOUCHDOWN OF A VERY STRONG TORNADO ON MAY 10 2008 IN NEWTON
COUNTY MISSOURI. AT APPROXIMATELY 559 PM A TORNADO CROSSED THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER JUST NORTH OF IRIS ROAD. THE TORNADO MOVED EAST
SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 43 AND IRIS ROAD WERE IT
INTENSIFIED BRIEFLY TO AN EF-4 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY
170 MPH. DAMAGE INCLUDED THROWING AUTOMOBILES UP TO ONE HALF
MILE
...COMPLETELY DESTROYING BUSINESSES AND NUMEROUS HOMES. MANY OF
THE TWELVE REPORTED DEATHS IN NEWTON COUNTY DURING THIS EVENT
OCCURRED NEAR THIS INTERSECTION.
Just got in from catching some waist high weak, but rideable waves from the cold front that pushed into the gulf here in SRQ. Water was 80 degrees, a joy to be out of the wetsuit, just a neoprene top. Wind switched directions so it's going flat quick.
I bet SurfMom is having a fun day today.
Ok someone let me know if I am just more observant of the planet since I have been blogging on WU or....... are things really wacky out there. I never remember so many disasters happening in such a cluster before. Myanmar, tornado's, lots of little earthquakes, big earthquake in China, and two volcanoes going off .....is this normal activity that I just never was aware of or are things a bit "crazy". Did the quakes happen because of the volcanoes.....bare w/me guys...it just seems very busy. I was so on edge yesterday...wondered if the "woo-woo" part of me sensed things out of balance on the planet.
5 seconds too late. Lots of attempted surfing at the Naples Pier. Parasurfing, as well as windsailing in the 83 degree water here.

SWFLgazer - terrific day! first time in ages I had NO work, and I got waves --truly a joy and the waves were guilt free --no hurricane causing destruction in order to give me rides --that was nice for a change. Still feeling guilty when Dean did such a number on those natives, but provided some of the best waves of last season
hey everyone, I believe that weather happens in cycles. Be it 50 years or 1000 years. we as humans, would have to devout all of our time and energy to distort it. That is a fact.
Surfmom...If I had to make a guess, I would guess that these things have always happened. I would also argue that we now know about them instantaniously now rather that hearing about them years later, as we did before the invention of such things as telephones and satellites.

Wish I could stay here and play, but the fridge is empty and men will be hungry tonight. Taking a moment to give prayers to those in Myanmar & China and asking for miracles to save children, innocent people, all creatures ---Hoping mother nature will calm down --it's like she's got PMS this week.
Re post 64 - I am sure it is as you say, we are just more quickly informed of these disasters, I am appreciative of the information, but it does make me feel helpless and sad.....but it does seem like an over-active few weeks
Take care all - be back later this PM, thanks for your thoughts SWFLgazer!
Good afternoon all! Just wanted to let you all know that I have updated my BLOG with the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preview that you would find on my site. Please leave some comments there.
51. cchsweatherman 4:39 PM GMT on May 12, 2008

Good observation CCHS...I noticed the lower to mid level swirl near 28W however i did'nt notice the possible forming tropical wave!

Great blob watching :}
remember the people in sothern ga and in cartersville and atlanta. You don't realize the extent of the damage until you get there.
70. CaneAddict 2:37 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
51. cchsweatherman 4:39 PM GMT on May 12, 2008

Good observation CCHS...I noticed the lower to mid level swirl near 28W however i did'nt notice the possible forming tropical wave!

Great blob watching :}


Thanks CanAddict. You are doing a great job with your site. Terrific idea partnering with 456.
What are your thoughts on the feature at around 28W and the developing tropical wave, based upon Hovmeller (may have misspelled the word) diagrams?
Looking forward to working with you and everyone else here this hurricane season as we all will be preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
it's clear and breezey in Charleston....I'm going sailing in the harbor...Any of you experts see any reason I shouldn't??????
75. JRRP
¬¬ i think this convection that 456 told will be the next wave
72. cchsweatherman 6:43 PM GMT on May 12, 2008
70. CaneAddict 2:37 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
51. cchsweatherman 4:39 PM GMT on May 12, 2008


Right now it would be quite difficult to give you my true thoughts on the 2 features, As i have not yet done my analysis of the Atlantic but later i will be updating my blog and you can get my thoughts there.

As for now i can say that there is most definitely some form of circulation attempting to form within that area near 28W however i have not analyized it enough to know if its in the mid or lower levels within the atmosphere. Also convection is limited with that area.

As for the developing wave, I can't really speculate anything on that as of yet, I have not even looked at it really yet.

And last, The wave that ran into South America yesterday, It has lost a lot of organization since 24 hours ago, Shear is only going to get higher as it makes its way into the East Caribbean, So that area is really not impressive at all. If it can at least hold an evident inverted signature to the East Pacific i can see the potential for development, otherwise im not impressed with this area at all.

(This was all just a quick walkthrough the current features, I have not done a full analysis).

And i look forward to working with you also CCHS!

Incredible...three deadly natural disasters (I know the severe weather isn't exactly a natural "disaster" but it did kill more than 20) within the scope of one month. Obviously there's no connection between them; they just happened to happen within one month of each other, two of them with the deathtoll at or above the thousands. A very inconvienient coincidence. We can't blame this latest one on global warming.

The death toll just passed 8,500 in China.

Latest on the three news making natural events:
CNN: Thousands Killed by Huge China quake
CNN: Reports: Twister kills two mothers protecting kin
CNN: Bloated corpses pile up; first U.S. aid flight arrives in Myanmar

Also large wildfires are now being reported in two counties of Florida.


CNN/Associated Press
Look at the western atlantic those blue colors indicate below normal sst's.I must admit i dont remember the last time i saw such a split in temperatures across the atlantic.Things could change but its something to keep an eye on for sure.

global warming from gasoline emmisions is the reason why we have such violent tornadoes and earthquakes. 18 miles beneath our feet is directly affected by our carbon waste into the atmosphere. if we want to reduce the number of tornadoes and earthquakes in the world then we have to stop using fossil fuels for energy.

Wow.

Wow...what to say to this? Ummm...this was pretty authoritative. Are you sure?

Is this a joke?

LOL, press.
att...it must be true...cause I read it on the internet.....
Personally, I have no faith in Bastardi's forecasts due to his lack of accuracy the past few years, I think now he has low numbers due to cover up the chance of another inactive year. He usually forecasts higher numbers. Anyway i have no faith in him but i posted this for those that do :).

Joe Bastardi's 2008 Hurricane ForecastUpdated: Monday, May 12, 2008 2:34 PMJoe Bastardi of AccuWeather.com Releases Expanded 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast Calls for Increased Risk of A Destructive Storm From the Carolinas to New England

STATE COLLEGE, PA, May 12, 2008 - AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released an expanded hurricane season forecast for 2008. The forecast calls for a near average overall number of named storms but suggests a heightened risk for the eastern U.S. coastline.

"Although we are forecasting a total of 12 named storms in 2008, much more important than the forecast storm number are the facts that a relatively high percentage of tropical storms are expected to make landfall and that the major threat area is farther north than normal," said Bastardi. "We believe at least 40 percent of named storms will cause tropical storm or hurricane conditions on the US coastline, which is about 1.6 times the norm."

The forecasts state that a weakening La Niña and near-normal or below-normal water temperature in most of the tropical breeding grounds of the Caribbean and south Atlantic will reduce the overall number of storms. However, with warm waters near the north Atlantic coastline, storms may form closer to the coast resulting in a higher than average storm threat on the East Coast, from the Carolinas to New England.

"Our forecast is that two or three storms will bring at least tropical storm force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds, and one major hurricane," said Bastardi. "And, the Gulf of Mexico will have a normal distribution of tropical cyclone activity, with energy interests experiencing at least 7 to 10 days with disruptions or threats of disruptions. Specifically, the forecast is for two or three storms that affect the energy infrastructure in and around the Gulf and bring at least tropical storm force winds to the Gulf coast, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds."

Bastardi and the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center have looked at 1985, 1989, 1996 and 1999 as years to compare to this season. In all of these years, major storms hit from the Carolinas northward.

The best chance for early storm development is in the western or central Gulf area, from 90W longitude westward. This is based primarily on very warm water in the western and central Gulf, cool water in the western Caribbean, the expected June steering currents in the central Gulf and a drier than normal pattern in the northwest Caribbean lasting into July. The primary period of hurricane threat will run from mid-August to mid-October and will encompass the entire Gulf and Atlantic areas.


Well if sst's dont change much come august/september time frame he may have a good point in calling for below normal activity in the caribbean and other areas.
re: flying cars

After Andrew, not only were plenty of cars moved and flipped, I personally saw one that must have flown ~75' from the parking lot, and landed upside down on a large greenhouse at the FIU main campus (which was a lot less built up than now). Embedded tornado?

No question a tornado would be worse, but a car is not a good place to be in a windstorm. A truck/van will flip more easily.

However, I don't see why a ditch (unless deep, I'm thinking culvert) would be good and under an overpass would not. Comment?
85. JRRP
above normal in the east atlantic,that´s why we will see a active CV season

However, I don't see why a ditch (unless deep, I'm thinking culvert) would be good and under an overpass would not. Comment?

Any depression is safer than flat land because the wind cannot as easily penetrate a crevice. Wind doesn't take corners very sharply....I guess a ditch could also protect against debris to an extent
re: flying cars

After Andrew, not only were plenty of cars moved and flipped, I personally saw one that must have flown ~75' from the parking lot, and landed upside down on a large greenhouse at the FIU main campus (which was a lot less built up than now). Embedded tornado?

No question a tornado would be worse, but a car is not a good place to be in a windstorm. A truck/van will flip more easily.


One thing to never forget when thinking about staying for a TC landfall (or analyzing damage)...it is prefectly normal for a decent TC to generate 100s of short-lived EF0s and EF1s. Straightline winds can be nasty enough for that, but coupled with a brief nado or downburst will give the wind damage a slightly different character and not in a good way.

It is also very difficult to completely analyze whether a nado, downburst, or sustained winds were responsible for specific damage. Sometimes trees will have fallen in a different direction...sometimes not.
Sometimes doppler radar will give up a nado or downburst, but the longevity of such things in a TC makes it very difficult to expect that all were captured. Rotation needs at least 2 frames (10 minutes), and usually much more, to be detected that way...nados in TCs, again, are very brief.
Hurricane23: That's what I've been trying to point out to people -- that SSTs are not particularly warm this year and, even more telling, they're predicted to warm very slowly over the next month. There's just not going to be very much fuel out there. The 26C extent will be fair, but there'll be almost nothing above 28C.

To anyone who wants to see this for themselves, compare the forecast with the archives from past years here:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/ias.html

I've tested out their forecast prediction by comparing the results of past forecasts with current data, and they're generally quite good.

It's going to be a cool summer in the tropical Atlantic -- good 26C extents, but poor peak temperatures. I've seen a lot of people making over the top predictions for this year, esp. on number strong storms, claiming that the seas are going to be hot; hopefully, they'll pay attention to this.
one event after another
lets finish the game
k its only one ingreident of many hot ssts are bad for bad storms but you dont really need high ssts for a bad storm as long as it at 26 u get em weather you want em or not and they are coming its all just a matter of time
KarenRei Yea iam not exactly sure why there is such a split in those sst's were the eastern atlantic is pretty warm but once you reach the MDR region sst's drop to below normal in the western atlantic.SST'S forcast's that ive seen only call for slow warming in the coming months.As you may know sst's play a pretty significant part in tropical cyclone development but at the same time its only part of other important conditions that have to be present in order for a tropical cyclone to flurish.We'll see what happens in the coming weeks and months.

As i always tell folks dont focus on numbers predicted as it only takes 1 STORM to ruin lives.
However, I don't see why a ditch (unless deep, I'm thinking culvert) would be good and under an overpass would not. Comment?

Any depression is safer than flat land because the wind cannot as easily penetrate a crevice. Wind doesn't take corners very sharply....I guess a ditch could also protect against debris to an extent



Plus underpasses tend to create a funnel and cause the wind speed to actually increase as a tornado passes over it. So you end up in stronger wind than if you were in a ditch and risk getting blown out into the tornado.
93. JRRP
hurricane23 what do you think about the wind shear ? if u said that this season could be below normal
hurricane 23
If theres more storms then there is more of a chance of a devastating hurricane but I agree some of the worst storms have occurred during low seasons including Andrew

Also total rainfall of 8.5 inches still slightly drizzling mudslides have really grown but won't harm anything but a dry pond still the oats and grass seeds kind of failed.
Afternoon all

h23, in regards to post 78, that map you posted shows very very few pockets of "below average" SSTs It actually shows most of the Atlantic at near normal, and the E Atlantic at well above average. Notice that the only below average areas are the ones with the dashed lines around them. Notice the areas marked with stars.



I certainly hope that no one is banking on these very minor variations to make much of a difference one way or another.
Afternoon BT :~) Great to see ya!
How many people are killed by tornadoes each year?

On the average tornadoes kill about 60 people each year, mostly from flying or falling debris.

How often do F4/F5 tornadoes occur?

Of the 1000 tornadoes that occur each year, about 2% of them are rated F4 or F5. That means that there are as many as 20 devastating tornadoes each year. It is possible that meteorologists have underestimated the number of violent tornadoes that occur each year. Tornadoes are rated only by damage they do to man-made structures. Therefore, if a tornado doesn't hit a structure of some kind, we cannot estimate its strength. Also, a tornado varies in strength during its lifetime and could be its strongest while between areas of houses or other buildings.

Is it safe to take shelter under an overpass?

Absolutely not! Stopping under a bridge to take shelter from a tornado is a very dangerous idea, for several reasons:

Deadly flying debris can still be blasted into the spaces between bridge and grade -- and severely injure any people taking shelter there.
Even when strongly gripping the girders (if they exist), people may be blown loose, out from under the bridge and into the open -- possibly well up into the tornado itself. Chances for survival are not good if that happens.
The bridge itself may fail, peeling apart and creating large flying objects, or even collapsing down onto people underneath. The structural integrity of many bridges in tornado winds is unknown -- even for those that may look sturdy.
Whether or not the tornado hits, parking on traffic lanes is illegal and dangerous to yourself and others. It creates a potentially deadly hazard for others, who may plow into your vehicle at full highway speeds in the rain, hail, and/or dust. Also, it can trap people in the storm's path against their will, or block emergency vehicles from saving lives.


National Severe Storm Labs
afternoon SJ...good to see you as well!!
The western portion of the Basin is generally below normal while the eastern atlantic is above normal.SJ please man ive been reading Reynolds SST map for years now.I was just trying to point out why this split in sst's and what might be causeing it?
We will likely see severe weather over the next 5 days, followed by a good 5-7 day lull is severe activity. Good thing too, considering how active it has been this year. A north flow into the gulf is always welcome.


And lets not forget, the ~900 tornadoes is a bit high. For instance, yesterday the tornado that was rated EF-4 was reported a good 10-15 times, which is still in the official record. This also occured when the ~120 mile long tornado occured in Arkansas earlier in the year. These errors will be fixed by in a few months. We are still way above average, but remember to take the numbers currently with a grain of salt.


Also, how about the country's April average temperature?!? Lowest in 120 years! Global warming indeed. ;)
Plus underpasses tend to create a funnel and cause the wind speed to actually increase as a tornado passes over it. So you end up in stronger wind than if you were in a ditch and risk getting blown out into the tornado.

Absolutely!
It's the canyon effect....amplification of already tremendously strong winds are created under a highway overpass.
Very bad idea for shelter.
The number of tornadoes that is being tossed around in the media is only a "preliminary" count.
Many times at the end of the season tally these numbers are reduced 30% after further examination.
93. JRRP 4:04 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
hurricane23 what do you think about the wind shear ? if u said that this season could be below normal

Shear cannot be forecasted with any reasonable degree of accuracy. It can be implied from expected patterns, but those patterns, e.g. long waves, associated jet streams, etc., can themselves be wrong (and often are at the seasonal level). In the short term (up to three or four days) shear can be predicted with reasonable accuracy at the synoptic scale, but beyond that timeframe the accuracy and value of the forecast deteriorates pretty rapidly.

Here are the Current Wind Shear Prediction Anomalies from the CFS model if you wish to view them.
105. JRRP
ok thanks h23
h23 post 99.

Again, your statement was that SSTs are below normal in much of the Western basin. I just do not see how you can conclude that from the Reynolds maps. Most of the Western basin is very very close to normal. With most areas being maybe -.2C to positive .2C This is not a major variation from normal imho. If you can provide something that shows otherwise I will gladly listen. I just don't think that the SSTs are going to be a big enough factor to influence the season one way or another.
From Dr. Master's entry today:

The Picher tornado was the sixth violent EF-4 tornado of the year.



How often do F4/F5 tornadoes occur?

Of the 1000 tornadoes that occur each year, about 2% of them are rated F4 or F5. That means that there are as many as 20 devastating tornadoes each year.
It is possible that meteorologists have underestimated the number of violent tornadoes that occur each year. Tornadoes are rated only by damage they do to man-made structures. Therefore, if a tornado doesn't hit a structure of some kind, we cannot estimate its strength. Also, a tornado varies in strength during its lifetime and could be its strongest while between areas of houses or other buildings.

h23 post 99.

Again, your statement was that SSTs are below normal in much of the Eastern basin. I just do not see how you can conclude that from the Reynolds maps. Most of the Eastern basin is very very close to normal. With most areas being maybe -.2C to +.2C This is not a major variation from normal imho. If you can provide something that shows otherwise I will gladly listen. I just don't think that the SSTs are going to be a big enough factor to influence the season one way or another.

NOTICE i said the western part of the atlantic meaning the caribbean and the MDR region which as i stated are right at normal levels or even below normal for the most part.As you can see with the bright yellows lol the eastern atlantic is running somwhat above normal which i might add i also pointed out in my previous post.In my personal opinion there are a pretty significant in regards to tropical cyclone formation but again as i also pointed out in my previous post there are other factors involved surrounding a tropical cyclone which need to be in place.I think i'll pass on this back and for stuff about sst's in early may we'll see what things look like come the meat of the season august/september october time frame.You can have the warmest sst's but if the right conditions are not there nothing will develope.
Fires are getting out of control ECent Fl. No rain for a month and pyros running around torching woods. We need some troops and quick.
I'm with you, SJ; this is the SST map for today:



Here it is for one year ago today:



Not a great deal of difference...cooler water in the GOM, but the differences are minimal
Great to see ya back flood/Jerry...lol

Look forward to having you around this year.

Again, I am all up for viewing something that proves the SSTs are well below normal, but I need data in order to buy in to it.
110. Floodman 8:45 PM GMT on May 12, 2008
I'm with you, SJ; this is the SST map for today:



Here it is for one year ago today:



Not a great deal of difference...cooler water in the GOM, but the differences are minimal


Yeah, But it is noted that the MDR is warmer then last year at this time.
h23, My Easterns were typos in that post, already changed to Westerns. I know which area you were talking about, I was only pointing out that on the Reynolds map it only shows a very few "blues" in the mdr, most of the colors are shades of aqua/marine green which represent near normal temps.

And not trying to back and forth. What I call this is healthy debate and learning.
State of emergency has been declared by the Florida governor Criss for our county Brevard and the county to the north Volusia (Daytona) The fires are moving through the areas near 95 out of control.
113. StormJunkie 4:55 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
h23, My Easterns were typos in that post, already changed to Westerns. I know which area you were talking about, I was only pointing out that on the Reynolds map it only shows a very few "blues" , most of the colors are shades of aqua which represent near normal temps.

And not trying to back and forth. What I call this is healthy debate and learning.

Its all good man.....Had a long day at work.
Sorry leftovers, y'all were doing so well up until just recently. Closings of 95 have to be a nightmare.
Floodman: Looks like about an average of a degree cooler. Plus, have you checked out the SST forecasts like I've mentioned? We haven't had a season this cool since 2004, yet a month from now, our temperatures are to be way lower than 2004s at the same time. We're already cool, and we're to warm very slowly.

As for the anomaloies, remember first off that this is comparing to long-running average temperatures, not recent temperatures. Secondly, everything in the western tropical Atlantic (everything west of the thin dashed line) is below average except for a tiny area in the heart of the Carribean that's right at average. The average is about one degree cooler than normal (the long-dashed circles are 1.7 degrees cooler), which is a big deal.

Even the warmth in the eastern Atlantic is misleading. Again, check out the forecasts; it is to barely warm in the next month. The 26C extent will spread, but the waters won't get much hotter.

Yes, shear can cancel out hot seas, and low shear can allow for storms to grow in cooler seas, but this isn't a promising sign for major development by itself.
School is Almost Over Here in South Florida ....

Again NO Activity ... I guess
Wait .....

270
axnt20 knhc 121741
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon may 12 2008
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...the Gulf of Mexico...the Caribbean Sea...northern
sections of South America...and the Atlantic Ocean to the
African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following
information is based on satellite imagery...meteorological
analysis...weather observations...and radar.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 53w S of 9n moving W 10-15 kt. The wave
is fairly ill-defined with vis imagery and 09z qscat data
showing low-level NE flow across the analyzed axis.
However...this feature is likely enhancing convection which has
increased in intensity and coverage...scattered moderate in
nature...within 120 nm W and 180 nm E of the axis from 5n-7n.
92 Degrees Here in Mid - South Florida

The Everglades is drying up , I can Walk Across My Neigboorhood Lake .......

Serioudly It Has gotten so small i can just jump and land on the oppsite shore

LeftOvers We Do Need Some Rain , I Agree

Which Part of Florida?
SJ, I'm looking forward to the lively interchanges, myself...H23, I feel your pain. Seems like they're all rough ones these days
Here is the current visible image of the storm off the coast. This is the same storm that resembled a hurricane in appearance, and in some ways, it still does.

The storm center is located off the shore of Virginia.

Still looks pretty Terra.
So is it a landcane-over water now?
Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 53w S of 9n moving W 10-15 kt. The wave
is fairly ill-defined with vis imagery and 09z qscat data
showing low-level NE flow across the analyzed axis.
However...this feature is likely enhancing convection which has
increased in intensity and coverage...scattered moderate in
nature...within 120 nm W and 180 nm E of the axis from 5n-7n.



Invest ? Soon ?

The Wave we were Watching Earleir .....

88. KarenRei 3:45 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
Hurricane23: That's what I've been trying to point out predicted to warm very slowly over the next month. There's just not going to be very much fuel oto people -- that SSTs are not particularly warm this year and, even more telling, they're ut there. The 26C extent will be fair, but there'll be almost nothing above 28C.

To anyone who wants to see this for themselves, compare the forecast with the archives from past years here:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/ias.html

I've tested out their forecast prediction by comparing the results of past forecasts with current data, and they're generally quite good.

It's going to be a cool summer in the tropical Atlantic -- good 26C extents, but poor peak temperatures. I've seen a lot of people making over the top predictions for this year, esp. on number strong storms, claiming that the seas are going to be hot; hopefully, they'll pay attention to this.

Action: | Ignore User
Well, like I always say, KarenRei, we'll see when it gets here...I have a better record predicting thrown dice than weather and all that having been said, it only takes one
Interesting points KR.

The average is about one degree cooler than normal (the long-dashed circles are 1.7 degrees cooler), which is a big deal.

Is there some documentation that sates this? I don't think everything to the East of the dotted line is plus 1.7C. Like wise I do not think that all of the dashed lines represent -1.7c. My monitor represents colors fairly accurately and most of the Western Atlantic looks near normal to me.

Also can you link to the SST forecasts you are looking at.

Thanks :~)
All the local Orlando stations are on it. Even though our houses are in harms way they still have time for commercials.
So is it a landcane-over water now?

Yep! Maybe a "Not-over-land-o-cane" or "Land-even-though-its-over-water-O-cane".

Anyway...concerning the sea surface temperatures, I agree with StormJunkie in that they are very near average, and that they have warmed very rapidly (as if making up for lost time) and I will go so far to say that they will soon catch up with last year's SST's (see post #110).
And for the record, I am not saying it is going to be an explosive season due to SSTs, nor am I even saying it is going to be an explosive season. I am only saying that SSTs seam fairly normal, which compared to the last few years may seem cool, but that they will not have a giant influence on the number of storms we see. This season is going to be in the hands of the other conditions imho.
For those interested in the Florida fires.....Skyepony has a good blog on the subject.
Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 53w S of 9n moving W 10-15 kt. The wave
is fairly ill-defined with vis imagery and 09z qscat data
showing low-level NE flow across the analyzed axis.
However...this feature is likely enhancing convection which has
increased in intensity and coverage...scattered moderate in
nature...within 120 nm W and 180 nm E of the axis from 5n-7n.


SammyWammy, I don't think that wave will be declared an Invest, As it says in the TWD it is ill-defined....Meaning it's losing organization and shear is increasing as it makes its way into the East Caribbean.
lol TN, like those terms. Pretty funny stuff!
Yep! Maybe a "Not-over-land-o-cane" or "Land-even-though-its-over-water-O-cane".

How about just Watercane!
OK....I quit...promise.
122. TerraNova 9:04 PM GMT on May 12, 2008
Here is the current visible image of the storm off the coast. This is the same storm that resembled a hurricane in appearance, and in some ways, it still does.

The storm center is located off the shore of Virginia.


Maybe that can persist with the same organization for the next 24 hours and be named a Sub-tropical storm lol....I mean it does have a well-defined circulation and cloud cover...
But Doesn't It Also Say After it says it is "Ill Defined" its Says "However...this feature is likely enhancing convection which has
increased in intensity and coverage
"
136. sammywammybamy 9:20 PM GMT on May 12, 2008
But Doesn't It Also Say After it says it is "Ill Defined" its Says "However...this feature is likely enhancing convection which has
increased in intensity and coverage


What they mean by that is, The nearby convection and thunderstorm activity is being enchanced by the tropical wave.


AMSR/AVHRR combined data also shows most of the Tropical Atlantic above average or -.5 to positive .5c which also tends to lead me to believe that things are much closer to normal as opposed to overly cool.
Ok... So i guess there isn't Anything to watch for development in the Atlantic ...
How do you post images on here ....

Most of the time i can explain better with images then with words
88. KarenRei 3:45 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
Hurricane23: That's what I've been trying to point out to people -- that SSTs are not particularly warm this year and, even more telling, they're predicted to warm very slowly over the next month. There's just not going to be very much fuel out there. The 26C extent will be fair, but there'll be almost nothing above 28C.


Hi everybody,

I see your data, but all this does for me is support my theory that the season will have a late start - i. e. nothing or at most a tropical storm before August. I think that by the mid-point of the season SSTs will be close on or above normal, and thus the key factors for storm formation will be upper air patterns, location of the AB high, and, if it does eventuate, a turn towards el nino conditions later in the season. In looking at the maps, I notice that the bulk of the below level temps are very, very slightly below - within .5 degree Celsius - suggesting to me that waters are not that much cooler than normal.

Another thing that makes me reluctant to agree with you on this is the recent warm-up in air temperatures we have been experiencing in Nassau. On the first of May, we were still having highs in the low to mid 80s with relatively low humidity. In the last week, however, we have been averaging 88+ as the high, and the air has become thick and muggy. While this is not anything seriously out of the ordinary, it does feel like the kind of weather which I associate with a normal tropical season.

I agree that the SSTs are not going to get extremely hot this year. However, they should be warm enough to support formation, all other things being equal.


BTW, I've been out of range for a few days, and now my computer is giving me some problems (I'm typing this from an older laptop which is rather like one's old lame pooch which is not put down for sentimental reasons LOL). So if you don't hear much from me over the next little while, you will understand why . ..


Hey 23--I see that Joe B agrees with your 85 analog!
re post110/floodman - just got out of the water this AM and yup it's warming up - NO wetsuit, just a rashguard,bit of windchop swell this AM - nothing great, few rides, nice to have a day off and play. gomex by SRQ SWFL is 80 degrees

Very concerned about the lack of rain. I work east of I75 and it is DRY, cattle and horse water holes are nearly dry, we are already having to supplement the pastures with Hay - which is also a fire hazard (grass is not growing). Scarey business, specially at the polo club as it is a community with only two real roads to exit on, I am always checking wind direction in these times of drought, ready to bolt if need be -- my backyard west of I75 is a dust bowl - the grass is so dry in places it's crispy!! Nice the front brought the waves, but I honestly would have preferred RAIN. Hope none of these fires are near Skyepony.
wonder if the volcano will affect temperatures --how long does that take to show up?
142. stormlvr 5:32 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
Hey 23--I see that Joe B agrees with your 85 analog!

Yep! The main thing to take from that season is that in 1985 there were 7 hurricanes and 6 of them made landfall in the United States.
something tells me that all these weather events around the US is going to include a weather event involving Florida. We already have the drought, the fires, I have a bad feeling we are going to be in the news in a much different sense. Yes a drought busting storm is needed, but not a major cane. Jus a no name tropical system that can "swallow" Florida.
Is there some documentation that sates this? I don't think everything to the East of the dotted line is plus 1.7C. Like wise I do not think that all of the dashed lines represent -1.7c.

No, you misunderstood me. The finely dashed line is 0C. You can verify this in an image editor by extracting the colors adjacent to it and the colors at 0C on the scale. The broad dashed lines are -1.7C and +1.7C. Again, this can be verified in an image editor. Everything between the finely dashed line and the broad dashed line on the west (the cooler side) is between -1.7C and 0C, and it covers the whole spectrum of colors between them, leaning more to the colder side (as reflected by the fact that there are significant areas *below* -1.7C)

Also can you link to the SST forecasts you are looking at.

Sure; I post the link daily, it seems :)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/ias.html

It's a good page to bookmark.

AMSR/AVHRR combined data also shows most of the Tropical Atlantic above average or -.5 to positive .5c which also tends to lead me to believe that things are much closer to normal as opposed to overly cool.

I've never seen that graph before, and it's quite different from the other one. I looked into it, and here's what they show as the weekly average for last week:



Even if it was accurate, and this was an average year (unlike the above average temps we've had for the past several years), "average" plus "very slow warming" means cool SSTs in June.

And yes, I agree with the principle that it only takes one storm, and with the principle that SST alone is hardly enough to forecast a season. I also agree that not everything is rosy -- for example, it does look like steering currents are going to be aiming things at the US this year. I'm just pointing out that we've been getting a lot of wild forecasts around here about huge seasons with big storms, and I think the SSTs should put a damper on that.
Developing Story:

Thousands killed by huge China quake
Story Highlights
NEW: China says at least 8,600 dead but it expects figure to rise

900 children also buried when a school building collapsed, 50 bodies found

State news agency says several schools collapsed after 7.9 magnitude quake

NEW: China releasing $2.89 million to respond to the disaster, Xinhua reports

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- An earthquake powerful enough to be felt throughout most of China left thousands of people dead Monday and thousands more trapped -- including children buried under the rubble of their schools.

The Chinese government said at least 8,600 people were dead, but that the death toll was sure to rise as authorities began to reach some of the worst-hit areas.

The 7.9-magnitude quake's epicenter was Wenchuan county in Sichuan Province which has a population of about 112,000.

Residence as far as Chongqing -- about 320 kilometers or 200 miles from the epicenter -- spent the night outdoors, too afraid of aftershocks to sleep indoors.

Nearly all the confirmed deaths were in Sichuan Province, but rescuers could not immediately reach Wenchuan because roads linking it to the provincial capital, Chengdu, were damaged, the state-run news agency Xinhua reported.

The state-run Zhongxin news agency reported that a survivor who escaped Beichuan county in Sichuan Province described the province as having been "razed to the ground."

In Beichuan County, close to Wenchuan, the number of deaths was estimated at more than 3,000, with 80 percent of the buildings destroyed. Watch as the death toll rises »

In addition, at least 48 people were killed in the northwest Gansu Province, Xinhua said.

China's Seismological Bureau said the earthquake had affected more than half the country's provinces and municipalities.

U.S. President George W. Bush released a statement saying his country "stands ready to help in any way possible."

"I am particularly saddened by the number of students and children affected by this tragedy," Bush said.

China's government is releasing $2.89 million to respond to the disaster, Xinhua reported. China's Red Cross has dispatched 557 tents, 2,500 quilts and other aid to the disaster zone, Chinese television reported. Impact your world

The state relief disaster commission declared a level-two emergency, the second-highest level out of four, to cope with the aftermath of the quake, Chinese television reported.

In Sichuan's Shifang city, the quake buried hundreds of people in two collapsed chemical plants, and more than 80 tons of ammonia leaked out, Xinhua said.

The local government evacuated 6,000 civilians from the area after homes and factories were also destroyed. See CNN's interview with an American in Chengdu. »

The quake was "felt in most parts of China," Xinhua reported, with the confirmed casualties in the provinces and municipality of Sichuan, Gansu, Chongqing and Yunnan.

Xinhua said at least six schools collapsed, at least partially, in the quake.

At one, as many as 900 students were feared buried. At least 50 bodies have been pulled from the rubble at the high school in the Juyuan Township of Dujiangyan City in Wenchuan County.

"Some buried teenagers were struggling to break loose from underneath the ruins while others were crying out for help," Xinhua reported.

"Grieved parents watched as five cranes were excavating at the site and an ambulance was waiting. See a report on rescue operations at the school. »

"A tearful mother said her son, ninth-grader Zhang Chengwei, was buried in the ruins."

President Hu Jintao ordered an all-out effort to help those affected, and Premier Wen Jiabao traveled to the region to direct the rescue work, Xinhua reported.

"My fellow Chinese, facing such a severe disaster, we need calm, confidence, courage and efficient organization," Wen was quoted as saying.

"I believe we can certainly overcome the disaster with the public and the military working together under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee and the government."

Peter Sammonds, professor of geophysics at University College London, called the earthquake "tremendous." See workers in Chengdu hiding under their desks during the quake. »

"Particularly in the more remote, the more mountainous part where this has taken place, a lot of the buildings are built on sediments that are quite unstable. They're probably liquifying, causing the buildings to collapse," he said.

"You might expect landslides to occur, which could actually stop the relief efforts going through on the roads, so this could be very grim in the remoter, more mountainous parts of this province." Read an explanation about earthquakes. »

"Wenchuan is home to the Wolong Nature Reserve, China's leading research and breeding base for endangered giant pandas," Xinhua reported. The condition of the center was not immediately known because all communication services were cut off.

Bonnie Thie, the country director the Peace Corps, was on a university campus in Chengdu about 100 km from the epicenter, in the eastern part of China's Sichuan province, when the first quake hit.

"You could see the ground shaking," Thie told CNN. The shaking "went on for what seemed like a very long time," she said.

"This is a very dangerous earthquake," said Bruce Presgrave, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey, which updated the magnitude of Monday's quake from 7.8 to 7.9.

The quake had the potential to cause major damage because of its strength and proximity to major population centers, he said.

In addition, the earthquake was relatively shallow, Presgrave said, and those kinds of quakes tend to do more damage near the epicenter than deeper ones.

An earthquake with 7.5 magnitude in the northern Chinese city of Tangshan killed 255,000 people in 1976 -- the greatest death toll from an earthquake in the last four centuries and the second greatest in recorded history, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Tangshan is roughly 1,600 km from Chengdu, the nearest major city to the epicenter of Monday's quake. Quake victims have been sleeping outside in Chengdu. »

After the first quake struck Monday, the ground shook as far away as Beijing, which is 1,500 km from the epicenter.

They felt "a very quiet rolling sensation" that lasted for about a minute, according to CNN correspondent John Vause. "Our building began to sway," he said.

Thousands of people were evacuated from Beijing high-rises immediately after the earthquake.

At least seven more earthquakes -- measuring between 4.0 and 6.0 magnitudes -- happened nearby over the three hours after the initial quake at at 2:28 p.m. local time (0728 GMT), the USGS reported.

A spokesman for the Beijing Olympic Committee said no Olympic venues were affected by the earthquake. The massive Three Gorges Dam -- roughly 600 km east of the epicenter -- was not damaged, a spokesman said.

The earthquake was also felt in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taiwan, and as far away as Hanoi, Vietnam, and Bangkok, Thailand, according to the Hong Kong-based Mandarin-language channel Phoenix TV.
145. hurricane23 9:39 PM GMT on May 12, 2008
142. stormlvr 5:32 PM EDT on May 12, 2008
Hey 23--I see that Joe B agrees with your 85 analog!

Yep! The main thing to take from that season is that in 1985 there were 7 hurricanes and 6 of them made landfall in the United States

The high landfall idea for this year has a lot of merit. The 85 analog was a good call even though you took a lot of flak for it. Will be interesting to see if the mean pattern can shift east enough in September to allow for a few close calls that become fish storms. Of course timing and the transient pressure systems within the overall mean pattern will be the determing factor when the time comes.
The Caribbean SSTs are below average but much of the EATL and gulf and western Caribbean along with parts of the Gulf Stream are above average. Some 28 degree Celsius water around Jamaica right now.




Any Nuke plants affect in china's quake?
The broad dashed lines are -1.7C and +1.7C.

I was looking for a "legend" or some documentation that shows this. Those are large extremes and I just did not see where those numbers matched the scale.

I am also not convinced, although I must admit I do not use this map often, these maps show slow warming. I see the 26c line creep N fairly quickly. Also notice the slow warming over the past month is noted in the previous forecast. In no way is this a 05 temps year, but again, the temps will be there, and already are in many cases, to support development. Explosive development like we saw with Dean is unlikely, but number wise or the typical Cat 2 to 4 does not need extreme temps if the other factors are in place.

Last 30 Days


30 Day forecast. Notice that the moderate greens are 26c



Very good link, thanks!

That said, I still do not thing SSTs alone will limit numbers, and they will only limit strength slightly imho.

Also, I am not one that is much for pre season forecasts. We are just not there yet imho. NO reason not to try, but I think we just have to address each season as it comes at us.
Good afternoon all...

SST will warm very slowly over the next month?

The peak of the hurricane season is 3-4 months away, so we cannot draw conclusions based on May SSTs. U will be suprise we wont be talking about SSTs below 27C in the main development regions come August and September. Furthermore, we should not use comparisons with 2007 SSTs as conclusions either because 2007 had many supressing factors like wind shear and dust. In 2008, wind shear and dust is forecast to be below normal levels this hurricane season.
The regions most affected by hurricanes, like the Gulf Coast and Caribbean Islands, we all know SSTs will be well above 27C. So whats the argument????
Here's what I see from NRL right now:



And here's what they say for one month from now:



As I said, extremely slow warming. Here's what 2004 through 2007 looked like on that date:





And to anyone who wonders how accurate they are, just check their forecast archives and compare them to the actual temps. They're generally quite close.

True, that doesn't say what, say, August temps will be like. But I can't see how we'll have a hot August with this slow of a start.
Evening 456, good to see ya.

236, most areas seem to have near normal SSTs. Now if you want to compare this to the temps of 05, 06, and 07, yes they may seem cool.

Let me also point out that I have always felt that SST data in general is very shady at best. You can almost always find contradicting data or maps to help make a point one way or another.

I agree with 456 though, SSTs are not going to be a limiting factor. As a matter of fact I think they will not be much of a factor one way or another, unless we have some sort of extreme warm up or cool down.
Aslo the East Atlantic has had the greatest anomalies anywhere in the ATL basin. A wetter than normal East Atlantic over the past 30 days is evidence of this. I mean this is unlike any other recent year. Two impressive tropical waves already presented themselves in 10 days and its 19 days before June 1.
KR, on your first two maps, look at the Carib, Gulf and the waters creeping N of the Bahamas.

They are warming. And again, you are comparing it to recent years which is not a real look at what is going on. Anything over 26c is fuel and once you start getting to 27c it is real good fuel.

Those times with 29c waters is when you have to watch out fro Dean and Humbertos. Rapid intensification.
Good evening SJ
Conditions at 42001 as of
(3:50 pm CDT)
2050 GMT on 05/12/2008:
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.1 °F
wonder if the volcano will affect temperatures --how long does that take to show up?
And again, you are comparing it to recent years which is not a real look at what is going on.

Here's the 2004 May 06 temps for comparison to the 2008 May 06 temps and the 2004 June 06 temps (above)



Similar to what we have now. And look at how much they warmed.

Anyways, I think my point is made. And I agree with the criticisms; this is just once piece of data, and there's only so much you can take from it. So, take from it what you will.
stormjunkie #152 - just love that map!! especially in motion, amazing to see the gulf stream in motion as well as the other currents --just so beautiful - magical! BBL
Evening surfmom :~)

Being in the southern hemisphere, I would think it would have a hard time making it to the Tropical Atlantic anytime soon?
Palm Bay, FL under a state of Emergency

http://www.wftv.com/news/16232322/detail.html

Schools evacuated, 2 homes destroyed.

No rain sight and windy conditions starting to feel like 1998 again in Central Florida.


KR, the Gulf was much cooler in 04 then it is now.

Also if you look at 04...


15 named storms, which is above average number wise.

I hear you though, and again, thanks I live for good healthy debate! Always learning something new.
Hi everybody, very hot here lately. Currently 90°F at 6:30 pm! WOW
ajcamsmom:

Right now, the hottest waters directly measured in the Gulf is are at KYWF1, at 84.9F.

Buoygraph is your friend. :)

StormJunkie: 26C extents, sure. 28C or higher, no. And the June forecasts are a world apart. But yeah, I wouldn't welcome a 2004, mind you. ;)

Surfmom, there is a nuclear plant planned for that exact area, but I don't think construction on it has even started, and there's zero chance of it being in operation right now. The operational nuclear plants are concentrated along the eastern and southern coasts, and are all many hundreds of miles away.


affected areas Thailand, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.
Powerpoint slides discussing hiding below an underpass (brought up previously in Dr. M's March 17, 2008 post)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/papers/overpass.html

From slide 6:
"It is our contention that highway overpasses are inadequate tornado sheltering locations for the following meteorological reasons. First, ALL tornadoes have some amount of debris within their near-surface flow. In the case of a strong or violent tornado, much more debris would be present, traveling at much higher speeds, especially when debris from man-made structures is involved. In strong and violent tornadoes, typically harmless everyday items such as shingles, boards, pop cans, dishes (or pieces thereof) become dangerous missiles and are responsible for most tornado casualties. Second, by climbing up under an overpass, people will be exposed to higher wind speeds and more flying debris. Third, the narrow passage underneath an overpass might cause an increase in the wind speed under the bridge. The extent to which this is true, and the circumstances under which it could happen are not known, but this is at least a possibility. Fourth, most overpasses don't have girders or support beams for handholds or small ledges into which to crawl. And, finally, if an overpass is directly in the path of a tornado, the wind will change direction nearly 180 degrees as the vortex passes. Thus, if one side of the overpass was protected from the highest wind speeds as the tornado approached, that same side of the bridge will be completely exposed to the wind and flying debris as the tornado moves away and vice-versa.

Seeking shelter under a highway overpass is to become a stationary target for flying debris, with a substantial risk of being blown out and carried by the tornado winds. Safety in such a location is merely an illusion."

Another excerpt (emphasis theirs) from various slides:
"One misconception is that the wind associated with a tornado is confined to within the visible funnel cloud. This might be analogous to thinking of the tornado as a vacuum cleaner hose hanging out of the sky. One possibility why many people think that being under an overpass offers protection is that with something above them, the bridge will prevent the wind from going ‘up’ underneath the overpass...

"As stated in the caption for slide 11, to our knowledge, there have not been any specific modeling studies done about the airflow interaction between a tornado and an overpass. However, based on our current knowledge of airflow through and around obstacles, such as buildings and other man-made structures, it is possible to indicate the outcome of an interaction between a tornado and an overpass with a fairly high degree of confidence. In general, the wind speed decreases as we approach the surface, becoming zero right at the ground. This is why one of the first and foremost rules in general tornado safety is to get as low as possible, because that is where the wind speed is the lowest! By climbing up underneath the overpass, people are moving into a place where the wind speeds typically will be higher. In addition, under an overpass, it is possible in some situations that when air is forced through the narrow passage underneath the bridge, this might cause an increase in the wind speeds (as mentioned earlier). Further, under different circumstances, the area beneath and just downstream of an overpass might become a debris deposition zone, where piles of debris accumulate, as was the case at the Shields Boulevard overpass on 3 May 1999...

"The second fatality occurred at the Shields Boulevard overpass at its junction with Interstate 35 in the City of Moore. These photographs show many of the same things as the pictures of the 16th Street overpass. The top two photographs were taken by the author in late September. On the upper right is a view, looking south, of the west side of the bridge where the people were huddled. In the drainage ditch in the foreground, is a small memorial to the lady killed at this location. Her body was not found until one week after the tornado. The spot where her body was eventually found was buried underneath 6 to 8 feet of debris immediately after the tornado passed. On the upper left is a close up of this view, looking underneath the bridge. Notice the complete lack of any girders or support beams, simply smooth concrete up the embankment and smooth concrete overhead. There is absolutely nothing to hang on to underneath this bridge, and nothing to offer any protection whatsoever from flying debris."


Their conclusion (bold emphasis again theirs, italics mine):

"These are the current vehicle/open country safety guidelines for tornadoes as defined in “Tornadoes: Nature’s Most Violent Storms – A Preparedness Guide,” composed and distributed by the National Weather Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the American Red Cross.

1. Get out of automobiles.
2. Do not try to outrun a tornado in your car; instead, leave it immediately.
3. If caught outside or in a vehicle, lie flat in a nearby ditch or depression.

Therefore, is there a need to revisit the current tornado safety guidelines for people in vehicles or open country? We contend that there is. First, these guidelines were developed many, many years ago when the flow of information from the warning desk, through the media, to the public was much slower and poorer. Second, these safety guidelines say nothing about staying in one's car and driving at right angles to the tornado's path, simply to get out of the way, a policy that used to be part of our recommended safety precautions. It should be noted that all of the people who stopped at the Shields Boulevard overpass would have been completely out of harm's way had they simply stayed in their vehicles and driven as little as a half mile to the south! We also note that nowhere in the current safety guidelines is there any reference to seeking shelter under a highway overpass.

We are not saying that a vehicle is a safe place in which to ride out a tornado - it definitely is not. What we *are* saying is that by remaining calm and assessing the situation, it should be possible to determine the tornado's direction of movement, thus making it possible simply to drive out of the way, assuming it's not right on top of you when you first see it. In other words, we believe that the current safety guideline of immediately abandoning vehicles at the first sight of a tornado can be improved upon. The old rule about driving at right angles to the tornado's path is still good advice, if the road circumstances permit. On unobstructed highways, it is even possible to outrun a tornado until you reach a point where you *can* drive at right angles to the path and get out of harm's way quickly and easily. Obviously, if you encounter a weather event during a thunderstorm in which you can't identify what is happening (some tornadoes are hard to recognize), you should not attempt to drive into or through it!

With this being said, it may be dangerous even to try to drive out of the way of a tornado in an urbanized area where traffic is much heavier and could result in traffic jams preventing an escape. Lack of knowledge of the local roads besides the interstate highways may also severely hamper one's attempt to drive out of the way in an urban area. In such a case, one should seek shelter in a nearby building."
KRei,

Where r u located geographically? I'm wondering if u are in a tropical location yourself (below TCancer) (well, below 30N :o)

Tornado deaths underscore risks of taking shelter in cars
SENECA, Mo. - More than a third of the 22 people killed by a tornado that smashed parts of Oklahoma and Missouri over the weekend died in cars, troubling experts who say vehicles are one of the worst places to be during a twister.

"It's like taking a handful of Matchbox cars and rolling them across the kitchen floor," said Sgt. Dan Bracker of the Missouri State Highway Patrol, surveying the damage in and around Seneca, near the Oklahoma line, the hardest hit area. "This is devastating."


A demolished car rests near the wreckage of a feed store destroyed by a tornado near Seneca, Missouri, May 12, 2008.

Among those killed were three people in Oklahoma who were rushing to reach a relative's house in their car; a woman whose car was blown off a road near Seneca; and four family members... Rick Rountree, his wife, his 13-year-old son, and his mother-in-law who were in a van on the way to a friend's wedding when a twister packing winds of 170 mph struck the Seneca area on Saturday night.

"They were on the road when the warnings came," said Rountree's brother-in-law, Larry Bilke.

About 100 people have died in U.S. twisters so far this year, the worst toll in a decade, according to the National Weather Service, and the danger has not passed yet. Tornado season typically peaks in the spring and early summer, then again in the late fall.

This could also prove to be the busiest tornado season on record in the United States, though the final figure on the number of twisters is not yet in.

All together, at least 25 people died in Missouri, Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama after the severe storms erupted Saturday over the Southern Plains and swept east.

The death toll rose Monday when Tyler Casey, a 21-year-old firefighter in Seneca, died at a hospital. Officials said he got caught in the tornado while trying to warn people to seek shelter.

According to data from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, 49 of the 705 deaths or about 7 percent attributed to tornadoes from 1997 to 2007 were people who were in vehicles when the storm struck.

"They can cover more ground than you can in your car, so unless you know you are moving away from the tornado the best thing you can do is find a strong structure," said National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Foster.

The twister that struck Seneca and surrounding Newton County was moving at 50 mph to 60 mph, Foster said. One car was found a half-mile from the tornado track.

Authorities were still piecing together how some of the other victims died over the weekend. But the Missouri Highway Patrol said one person was killed when her vehicle was blown off the same road where the Rountree family died.

In Picher, Okla., 32 miles away, a man and a woman died when their car was blown into a lagoon. The body of another man from the car wound up in a tree nearby. A 13-year-old girl who was riding in the car was injured.

Fire Chief Jeff Reeves said they were not trying to outrun the twister.

"I think they were actually trying to get to a family member's house on the south side of town to help them and they just didn't make it over," Reeves said.

Another woman was critically injured after she took shelter in a broken-down car outside Susan Roberts' home in Seneca, authorities said. "That is what is tearing me up," Roberts said, adding she had warned the woman about the approaching tornado.

Val Castor, one of the many spotters who bring dramatic video of tornadoes to local TV stations in Oklahoma, said the number of people on the road during tornadoes seems to have increased every year since 1996, when the movie "Twister," which depicts meteorologists chasing tornadoes, came out.

He said driving during severe weather is extremely dangerous for the inexperienced because they don't know where a tornado will form or what direction it will go. Heavy traffic or a broken-down vehicle can prevent people from escaping the funnel cloud.

"Vehicles of any size really don't fare that well in a tornado. Vehicles can be thrown and tossed by the wind," said Rick Smith, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oklahoma.

Photobucket


As with mobile homes, the problem with cars is that they are not anchored to the ground, and the wind can easily get underneath them. Smith said winds of less than 100 mph can flip a car.
"That is probably the worst place that you can be when a tornado, or even some of the severe storms that we see in Oklahoma, happen," he said.

Smith said people should avoid driving when severe storms are forecast and seek shelter in a truck stop, restaurant or other permanent structure if caught on the road during a twister. As a last resort, Smith said, motorists should get out and find a low-lying area, such as a culvert or a ditch, where they can duck and cover.

Weather experts say overpasses should be avoided because the wind can become more powerful as it squeezes through.

"Paying attention to the weather and not being caught in that situation is really your best bet," Smith said.

The warnings against staying in cars were prompted by a tornado that struck Wichita Falls, Texas, in 1979. Of the 42 deaths, 25 were vehicle-related.

The U.S. death toll from tornadoes this year is the highest since 130 people were killed in 1998, according to the weather service. The highest number of tornado-related deaths came in 1953, when 519 people died.

To date this year, 858 tornadoes have been reported in the U.S., although that number probably includes numerous duplicate sightings of the same twister.

Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory said the highest number of tornadoes ever recorded through May 11 of any year was in 1999, when 676 tornadoes were counted. Brooks said he expects the number of confirmed tornadoes through mid-May of this year to end up in the 650-to-700 range.

Altogether, 16 people died in Missouri from the same storm that devastated Picher, where six were killed. Two more people were killed in Georgia, where forecasters said at least six tornadoes touched down. One of those twisters struck McIntosh County's emergency management center, destroying the fire trucks and ambulances inside. Another man was killed in Alabama when his truck was hit by a tree limb as he was surveying storm damage.

The Environmental Protection Agency said it would check for high lead levels in Picher after the tornado blew through the heavily polluted former mining town where lead-filled waste is piled into giant mounds.

Miles Tolbert, Oklahoma secretary of the environment, said he did not believe there was any immediate hazard to the 800 residents. But he said more testing was needed.

Link
and theres still more to come
hi vort
Hey Keeper.
Another busy severe week ahead for sure man.


Photobucket
HadesGodWyvern this what they dont need
do you think Chaiten Volcano started all of this like the 7.9 in China the Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis and the major tornado outbreak some in has to be in the roots of all of this you cant this have evere thing going on all at the same time no way
yep this may be an overall record for severe this season where just under a thousand already this is more normal by july
northern high plains southern paries of can southern ont have not even started there seasons yet
which normally starts by first week of june till late august this has the makings of a record year for sure
Source: United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

Date: 12 May 2008
ReliefWeb Link

Burma: Cyclone Fact Sheet #5 (FY) 2008
Link


BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)

Note: The last fact sheet was dated May 9, 2008.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

On May 12, USAID Administrator Henrietta H. Fore and Admiral Timothy J. Keating, Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, accompanied the first airlift of USAID commodities from Utaphao, Thailand, to Rangoon. A U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) C-130 delivered 10,800 insecticide-treated mosquito nets, 8,300 bottles of water, and 1,350 blankets, valued at $67,710. Two additional flights are planned for May 13.
270
axnt20 knhc 121741
twdat
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon may 12 2008
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...the Gulf of Mexico...the Caribbean Sea...northern
sections of South America...and the Atlantic Ocean to the
African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following
information is based on satellite imagery...meteorological
analysis...weather observations...and radar.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 53w S of 9n moving W 10-15 kt. The wave
is fairly ill-defined with vis imagery and 09z qscat data
showing low-level NE flow across the analyzed axis.
However...this feature is likely enhancing convection which has
increased in intensity and coverage...scattered moderate in
nature...within 120 nm W and 180 nm E of the axis from 5n-7n.
...The ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 7n11w 2n25w 3n40w 4n51w. Numerous
moderate and embedded scattered strong convection is from 3n-8n
E of 21w. Scattered moderate convection is from 6n-8n between
30w-46w and S of 1n between 34w-43w.
...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
a deep layer low pres system over the mid-Atlantic states has an
associated cold front that cuts across S Florida to near 26n85w
where it then becomes stationary to near Brownsville Texas. The
front is accompanied by a well defined rope cloud line and
embedded isolated showers. Cooler and much drier air has built S
behind the front...giving the region much more pleasant weather
conditions that the past couple of days. However...the
associated N 15-20 kt winds N of the front in the E Gulf has
increased seas slightly to 6 ft. This front is expected to sweep
S through the remainder of the E Gulf but lift back N in the
central and W Gulf as the upper troughing shifts E allowing a
mid-upper ridge centered over the NW Caribbean to gain
control.
Caribbean Sea...
a sprawling mid to upper ridge is centered over the Gulf of
Honduras while upper troughing extends from the nrn Leeward
Islands to the N coast of Colombia. This pattern is producing a
very stable environment aloft suppressing the development of
deep cloudiness/convection...and even the low-level moisture
field seems fairly thin. A qscat pass around 11z showed an area
of 20 kt trades near the coast of Colombia with light to
moderate E to se winds noted elsewhere. Moisture will likely
increase slightly over the next couple of days as an Atlc cold
front dives S toward the Greater Antilles and as a weak tropical
wave tracks W...possibly dragging some moisture to the srn
windwards.

Atlantic Ocean...
a large low pres system off the mid-Atlantic coast is
producing cold and rainy conditions there and wly winds to gale
force on its S side W of the front...which currently extends
from 32n68w to S Florida. Moisture is limited along the
front...however...lightning data is revealing scattered to
numerous tstm activity in an upper diffluent zone N of 28n
between 65w-70w. Another patch of activity has recently
developed near the NW Bahamas from 25n-27n between 74w-76w. The
large low is expected to remain strong over the next day or two
pushing the front toward the se Bahamas and the Greater Antilles
by Tue and Wed.
A 1025 mb sfc high pres system centered near 29n31w dominates
the remainder of the region producing moderate trades across the
tropical belt. In the upper levels...the pattern in the
subtropics is fairly flat due to weak ridging and interruptions
from a series of shortwaves. These shortwaves are supporting a
pair of frontal boundaries...which both remain N of the area.
This overall pattern is keeping deep moisture minimal. Broad
ridging covers the tropics with an embedded anticyclone centered
near 8n28w. Upper diffluence along the se and SW peripheries of
the ridge is enhancing convection in the ITCZ.
$$
Cangialosi
It's hard to say until the season is over.
I don't make statements one way or the other while in the height of the tornado season for the US.

The SPC forecasters will all tell you the same thing.
When it's over....let's see how it adds up.
I see the TWD postings have bugun.
Catch y'all later.
Whatever that mid-level spin was near 28 west (now near 32W) appears to have lost the spin to it.
Source: Xinhua News Agency

Date: 13 May 2008
ReliefWeb Link

Isolated China quake epicenter appeals for emergency aid Link


BEIJING, May 13, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX News Network) -- An official of Wenchuan County, the epicenter of a strong earthquake that struck southwest China Monday, appealed for emergency aid via a satellite phone early Tuesday, almost 11 hours after the county was cut off from the outside world.

"We are in urgent need of tents, food, medicine and satellite communications equipment through air drop. We also need medical workers to save the injured people here," said Wang Bin, Communist Party secretary of Wenchuan County, Tibetan-Qiang Autonomous Prefecture of Aba, Sichuan Province.

The 7.8-magnitude earthquake rocked Wenchuan at 2:28 p.m. Monday. A number of aftershocks have been recorded.

Rescuers are yet to reach Wenchuan, 159 km northwest of the Sichuan provincial capital of Chengdu, because all roads leading to the county had been destroyed by landslides and telecommunication links had also been cut.
When the NHC releases it's 8:05PM TWD i will update my blog on the 3 features currently in the Atlantic.

1. The mid-level spin near 32W
2. The tropical wave that ran into South America last night.
3. What looks to be a possible tropical wave near Africa.
who knows what good old mom nature has in store for us taz
After looking at the earlier discussion regarding SSTs, I must say that I think SSTs are vastly overrated. The minimum threshold needed for tropical cyclone development is 26°C (80°F). Anything above that is even better. The only time SSTs really matter IMO is when TCHP is high, as that allows for rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. We can still have hurricanes and major hurricanes with lower SSTs, provided that shear is favorable and the environment is moist. The only difference is the storms won't be able to rapidly intensify without high TCHP. There are exceptions (Flossie, 2007), but generally, this is the way it goes.
Has a Tropical System ever made landfall on July 4?????????????????
Hey guys. My interests in Meteorology and Astronomy have collided into one amazing paper.... Please look it over. Looking at the pictures alone is enough to get *chills*. I have been thinking about this for awhile now and it has finally become documented. Enjoy.
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/AXNT20.html
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx Link
Evening KM, good to see ya!

And your statements reflect exactly what I was getting at
Sammys Tropical And Weather Anyalisis

My Points Of Intrest are .....

1. Tropical Wave ....

Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 53w/54w S of 10n moving W 10-15 kt. The
wave coupled with the ITCZ is enhancing convection over the
guyanas region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from Equator to 7n between 51w and 58w. An earlier Quikscat
pass showed low-level NE flow of 15 to 20 kt across this area.
The GFS model has moisture from this tropical wave spreading
over the southern Windward Islands on Wed.


2. Florida Weather ( I live in florida)

Unusual moderate to strong wly winds were
blowing ahead of the front over South Florida during the weekend
but particularly on sun...allowing temperatures to climb into
the mid 90s


In Conclusion -

Florida is Baking and we need rain

and No Major Area Of Development for a While

No kidding pat!

I even debate posting TWO's, even though they are usually much shorter.

Just link the stuff and quote something if it is really interesting.

Taz re post 177, I was wondering the same thing --if there is any relationship between the Volcanoes and the earthquake -- is there anhy science about such matters?
You guys, Please read my paper. I'm positive everyone on this blog would enjoy it.
You guys, Please read my paper. I'm positive everyone on this blog would enjoy it.

The Links shows only this..

The site you have requested could not be found. (404)
FLWF, is there a way for you to post it without it being in a Word Document?

Like copy and paste it in to your blog? I would gladly read it, but for many reasons I try not to open documents straight from the web.
202. Patrap 8:22 PM EDT on May 12, 2008 Hide this comment.
The Links shows only this..

The site you have requested could not be found. (404)


I fixed it now pat... sorry 'bout that guys
FLweatherfreak - bit of trouble trying to get your paper to open is it on your blog?
Reply #152 - StormJunkie

Looks like the Gulf will experience a rapid warm up near the end of the forecast run...thanks!
Yea TN, I noticed that. The Gulf always gets hot though!
WAVCIS GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model Link

GOM 120 Hour Surface Current Forecast Model Link
Has anybody else noticed this? The GFS has been placing an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean in the long term for quite a few runs now, and it has attempted to develop it in the past two. I know, this is 384 hours out, but it has been showing consistency and I would not be surprised to see something attempt to develop in this general area before June 1. The West Caribbean and Gulf is the area climatologically favored for tropical development this time of year.

GFS 12z Run:


GFS 18z Run:
Patrap - just love that GOM surface current forecast link ) pardon me being girly, but I think it's one of the most beautiful of maps -explains why the rip current was soooo strong today felt like me & the surfboard in SRQ would end up in venice in 10 minutes it was pulling south so strong.
168. KarenRei 5:38 PM CDT on May 12, 2008
Sorry to take so long to get back with you. Thanks for the info,
Darn, Dog wants to go out and check the weatherBBL
OMG, more storms to come. We took a direct hit on Feb 5 here in Arkansas - EF4. Our house was destroyed, and we are lucky to be here. But I so want this season to end. We had another killer EF3 in our county May 2, and I am getting to be a basket case every time the Midland goes off. I can't take much more of this...
NWS Rip Currents Awareness Page Link

Rip Currents:
Break The Grip of The Rip!
Awareness Week: June 1-7, 2008


Rip currents take more lives by water than anything other than Storm Surge surfmom.
I know you know the safeguards and measures to avoid and recognize them.
Heres a reminder what to do for those who may encounter a Rip Current this Summer.








200. surfmom 5:18 PM PDT on May 12, 2008
Taz re post 177, I was wondering the same thing --if there is any relationship between the Volcanoes and the earthquake -- is there anhy science about such matters?


i am not sure
Alright guys... I uploaded my paper page by page so it doesn't have to be downloaded. Hope everyone finds it interesting!
Eruptions
A weblog of volcanic eruptions!Yellow Alert at PuyehuePosted in Andes, Chile, Historic eruption with tags Cordon Caulle, Puyehue on May 12, 2008 by ewklemetti


While I was looking at the gallery of Chaiten photos, I noticed another headline (in spanish) saying that the SERNAGEOMIN has issued a yellow alert for potential activity at Puyehue. Now, the “article” doesn’t offer much besides pictures and maps, but apparently there has been an increase in seismic activity in the vicinity of the volcano.

Puyehue is a volcano in the Andes of southern central Chile and is actually part of a complex with Cordon Caulle. Most of the eruptions in recent history (1990, 1960, 1930s) have been from Cordon Caulle, with the most recent activity at Puyehue appearing to be around 140 A.D. Most of the activity is a mix of lava flows and explosive eruptions ranging from 1-3 on the VEI, so nothing huge. I’ll post more information as I find it
Interesting read FLWF, thanks for uploading it!
216. FLWeatherFreak91 8:02 PM CDT on May 12, 2008
I just printed it, so I can take a good look at what you have to say...looks interesting.
Lisa
Amazing video: why not to take shelter in your car during a tornado
If you haven't seen it, the video captured by a surveillance camera during the Leighton, Alabama tornado on May 8 is a stunning testimonial of why one should not try to escape a tornado using a car. The EF-2 tornado with winds of 111-135 mph picked up cars like toys and tossed them into the air. A large number of tornado deaths and injuries occur when people try to escape the twister in their car and get caught by the violent winds.

Jeff Masters


Last Thursday the only death came from a man in his truck.Media didnt say whether he was asleep since it was very late or he hid there.This was in N.C with just one death Thurs.(EF3)

Very sad to hear about China too.
This cluster near 40W could be the first rain event for the Caribbean from the E ATL this season, assuming it holds together

FLWF, an interesting idea you have there. Well done. Seems to me, that all in all, everything is connected. And that nature is not far removed from science. Its as it should be.
209. TerraNova 8:29 PM AST on May 12, 2008

It has been on and off with that system...but generally past experience have shown...runs beyond 1 week is generally unreliable. If the model keeps it one week in advance of future model runs then is something to watch. Its not generally a suprise to me since conditions are forecasted to be favorable to support TC development in the latter part of May into June in the NW Caribbean.
I can see why people get in cars however, The absolute safest place to be in a tornado, in reality, is of course somewhere else.

After seeing the devastation, if people don't try to get out of unsafe ares, it bet it could be worse.
Hi Kman

I'm hoping you're right...my lawn is brown...
I have updated my blog on the 3 features in the Atlantic basin.

Josh's Weather Center
77

The TWD says that computers have rain coming from the wave ahead of it but it seems to me that there is very little moisture near 55W other than a small line of moderate precip

The system near 40 looks to be the best bet for T&T and Barbados. Can't say much beyond that as high pressure in the W and NW Caribbean has slammed the lid on any convection.
Hi Kman and 77. Had some cloud about today, but no rain at all. Still hoping.
Did someone mention brown lawns ??
FLWF91 great paper. What made you think of it?
Hi Pottery

Rain soon come mon !
230. tillou 9:22 PM EDT on May 12, 2008 Hide this comment.
FLWF91 great paper. What made you think of it?


Well, I saw a pic of the Andromeda Galaxy and wondered how in the Universe could it resemble a Hurricane so well. So I thought of how air pressure on Earth acts the same was as gravity does in space.
Yeah Kman, and in 6 of weeks we may be saying " enough, enough " heheh
Did someone mention brown lawns ??

I did... LOL...
Hurricane center chief says forecast accuracy is urgent

Link

Meanwhile, Read said seasonal government hurricane forecasts that provide the public with numbers of predicted storms will likely change in the future after two back-to-back slow seasons in the U.S. have left many people frustrated with a perceived lack of accuracy.

``I get some of the same frustrations,'' Read said. ``But some of that's kind of fickle because I had ... accolades back in the years when big seasons were forecast and it occurred, or weak seasons were forecast and it occurred.''

Regardless, Read said government forecasts will likely now emphasize whether it is expected to be an average or above average storm season rather than the predicted number of storms.
``The idea is that it more correlates with our level of skill in the forecast to stay with the above or below normal probabilities rather than a specific number,'' he said.
Nearly 10,000 reported killed by China quake
Published: 5/12/08, 9:00 PM EDT

BEIJING, China (CNN) - Relief troops walked hours over rock, debris and mud in hopes of reaching the worst-hit area of an earthquake that rocked central China on Monday, killing nearly 10,000 people, state-run media reported.
Setting out from Maerkang in Sichuan Province at 8 p.m. Monday, the 100 or so troops had to travel 200 kilometers (124 miles) to go before reaching Wenchuan, the epicenter of the quake, also in the province, Xinhua reported. After seven hours, they still had 70 kilometers (43 miles) to go.
Just keeps getting worse and worse. I am not normally a worry wart or a doomcaster, but I have a bad gut feeling about this season.
77, at least we have not had to mow the dam lawn recently...........
WPB, it has certainly been a depressing couple of weeks.
The China Earthquake pictures are very disturbing as people are still trapped alive under debris.

China has mobilized fast and is moving help as rapidly as possible, thank goodness.
This is interesting, It would be strange to see something like it in modern times. Just about all communication would die, as well as power, internet and probably many if not all weather satellites:

JF, shut your pie hole!!!

Good evening to you ☺
SJ - Considering it actually induced enough current to short telegraph lines and start fires it would have absolutely unimaginable consequences if it happened today.
Fortunately, with all the awareness of Burma, and the potential for devastating surge, not many people will be hanging around if warnings go out.
The big challenge would be - HOW TO LEAVE ??, along with a million other people. It could get absolutely crazy.
People in coastal areas need to start planning routes of evacuation NOW.

this in response to 238
FLWeatherFreak91, Wow. Great observations
Yes it would JF, it is a world I don't like to imagine. Not only for the personal withdrawal I would go through, StormJunkie.com, WU, email, Sat images, etc...but it would obviously have very serious impacts on society as a whole. Third World countries would suddenly climb to the top of the food chain.

I meant no offense either, hope you did not take it the wrong way !~)
Yep JF, as stated many of the third world countries and the fishing/farming communities around the world would jump to the top of the food chain. Being in the metropolises of the Americas, Asia, and Europe would be truly terrifying. Mass chaos would ensue in many of these areas.
I would hope they could fix things faster than that!
Night y'all ☺

Gonna have nightmares now JF...lol, but not really.
I knew there was a good reason that I live on a small tropical island.
I think I'll build a Gattlin Gun though. LOL. Keep you guys away!
Maybe if they had enough warning and shut many of the systems down before hand, but the impact it would have on the power grid, and the attempt to restore that would be a major undertaking that would have to be done with little communication. If you don't get that back up, then I would think it would be hard to get to the satellite's with out the power grid, and many may be damaged beyond repair with something that massive.
TropicalStormOphelia, due to hit NorthCarolina (maybe SC) as the first hurricane of the season on Wednesday.
Without AC the tropics would be uninhabitable! IMHO.
TropicalStormOphelia, due to hit NorthCarolina (maybe SC) as the first hurricane of the season on Wednesday.

I just saw that at the NHC page and though I was crazy. Must be a test that got out somehow.
WHAT??? PROBABLY A MISTAKE BUT THAT AREA WHERE SUPPOSELY TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS HAPPENS TO BE WHERE THAT LAND CANE LOW IS AT RIGHT NOW!
Tropical Storm Ophelia... September 2008. Check out the date, 3-months from now.

This is definitely a test of some sort that got out. They had every computer model tracking it too.

Hopefully this doesn't fortell events to come.
It's down now but maybe they have noticed that land-cane area and are about to name it...i doubt it though.
Well, we are at a solar minimum right now. The account mentions sunspots and there aren't any. I'll start worrying when they start globbing up.
Man I missed it. Wonder if they watch the blog.
Yep, test. 2008 storm names begin with 'Arthur', and 'o' is 'Omar'. Probably this site's program automaticly reading then graphing the NationalHurricaneCenter notice.
This is when they run drills. No one is supposed to be watching the darn weather for hurricanes in early May.
263. bappit 2:15 AM GMT on May 13, 2008
This is when they run drills. No one is supposed to be watching the darn weather for hurricanes in early May.


Although it is very likely drills, Something is fishy, That system that was "land-cane" is now over water off the coast of Virginia or North Carolina and thats exactly where they positioned "Ophelia"....
Well, if they are going to make up imaginary storms, then let's get creative!

T.S. Ophelia: 70 mph winds, 989mb pressure, becoming a Cat-2 hurricane moving North along the Atlantic seaboard into the New England states... how common.

Let's create one that moves north as a Cat-2 over New England, then backs into New York harbor a 2nd time from the North-East.

It should have intermittent coronal mass ejections with it?

"This is only a test. In the event of an actual coronal mass ejection aimed at the earth you would not be reading this."
Ophelia came back from the dead
Florida Wildfire Video from Channel 9, amazing pictures...I-95 on fire, people pouring water from the pool on the fire, 50 homes destroyed and counting.


http://www.wftv.com/video/16246205/index.html
well looks like we now have are 1st EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE of the season


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING COLD AND
RAINY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE OF U.S. AND
THE MID ATLC STATE IS FINALLY MOVING AWAY
and for the NHC to use a 2005 cyclone as a test

Taz that is the second.. the first was late April
2nd?
587
AXNT20 KNHC 262316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2008

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY 1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N74W. FARTHER
EAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N50W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 25N54W TO 20N60W. A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 39W-59W. W TO NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND S TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SFC HIGH NEAR THE AZORES COVERS
THE EASTERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 7N51W.
SWLY FLOW ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IS SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.


cyclone is heading off the map!
thanks
I'm a firm believer that hurricanes live up (or down) to their names. All of the really tough hurricanes had the NAME to go with it.

Hurricane Hugo - good name.
Carmen - Don't mess with people named Carmen.
Hurricane Elena - has a certain ring to it.
Katrina - A mean sounding name.
Opal - Looks good spray painted on boards.
Andrew - A leader's name, strong and smart.
Rita - A surly waitress

So with this in mind, we can predict the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Arthur - Smart, symetrical, small hurricane that avoids Texas (because Arthur isn't a Texas name). Arthur will end in the islands.

Bertha - Packs a mighty punch. Bertha is hispaniola bound. It will give people a suprise because Bertha is a suprising name.

Cristobal - Forms, then dies out in the ocean without hitting land. Cristobal can't be written easily on boards and T-shirts, so it can't hit land.

Dolly - The first hurricane that really will look good on signs and CNN newscasts, Dolly has to hit land somewhere in Florida. You will see lots of signs like "Hello, Dolly!" and other references to that play. Dolly will be a Cat-2.

Edouard - Nobody can spell Edouard, so it won't make landfall. Edouard will barely make tropical storm strength, then fade away.

Fay - Easy to spell, especially for people in Mississippi and Alabama where it should make landfall as a mid Cat-1. Fay is a rainmaker and has a certain flair for showmanship.

Gustav - Being French, Gustav will only hang around for a long time as a tropical storm. It will try to organize several times and generally get on people's nerves, then wander off into the Atlantic.

Hanna - Look out for Hanna. This one will be a biggie. Hurricane Hanna has a certain ring to it AND it's easy to spell AND will look good on T-shirts. Hanna is made for the Carolinas, but it's definitely a southern storm.

Ike - Ike follows Hanna. Again its easy to spell and lots of things rhyme with "Ike", so it has to make landfall. I bet it follows a week behind Hanna, same path.

Josephine - Style and class, but no substance. Hurricane Josephine just doesn't get people excited. Its too difficult to say after a few beers. Josephine has to hit eastern Mexico.

Kyle - Kyle wears glasses and only pretends to be tough. This one becomes a strong tropical storm, threatens to turn into the gulf, but in the end chickens out and joins the North Atlantic.

Lili - Last show of the season. Lili is easy to say and spell, however it isn't a very tough name. Cat-1 at best. Lili can't land anywhere in the south, so this one is New England bound.

Marco - Marco is Puerto Rican. This one will bypass the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and tear itself apart over Puerto Rico, then remnants over Cuba.

Nana - Won't form at all. We've already had too many easy to spell hurricanes this year and people will be tired of them. Besides, Nana just doesn't scare anyone.

Omar - A late November suprise for two days, then off to the North Atlantic with it.

Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred - Names will be unused this year. There is just no pizzaz to names like Hurricane Paloma or Hurricane Teddy. They wouldn't sell, no merchandizing profits... no hurricane. That's the rule.

Based on the storm names, these are my early season projections.
i dont know about any test but i myself have a couple of floaters on the area of disturb weather
track mark 39.9w/7.5n
floater 1 north atlantic rgb image
floater 2 south atlantic wv/enhanced 6.5 micron
260. bappit 9:13 PM CDT on May 12, 2008
Well, we are at a solar minimum right now. The account mentions sunspots and there aren't any. I'll start worrying when they start globbing up.


We don't have to worry for another year or two; according to this, we aren't even quite at the lowest point yet in the solar minimum, although afterwards activity will rise much faster than it fell:

Hi Jeff:
That video of the cars being thrown around is incredible. I'm not sure how much difference there would be in the window glass now compared to cars made in the '60, but a tornado hit Belvedere Ill. years ago and there wasn't a bit of glass left any larger than a pencil eraser. The car was full of it, and I can't imagine being in that car as all that glass 'Imploded'! The cloth upholstery was shredded in places!
I've never forgotten it and that alone has kept me away from cars as protection!
Thanks again for bringing that video here!
That area of disturbed weather near Myanmar has now been designated as 96B.INVEST.

271. HadesGodWyvern "and for the NHC to use a 2005 cyclone as a test"

The NHC (and/or this site's program) came up with an entirely new tracking map of an "Ophelia" located ~100miles/~160kilometres due south of where the SouthCarolina-NorthCarolina border meets the Atlantic
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Edit: Ignore the above. Thought HadesGodWyvern had posted a different tracking map of a past TropicalStorm off of Florida's east coast.
some one take 96B out to sea they dont need it
aspectre:



like this?
Taz nope.. the monsoon is affecting them now I suppose.

GFS model has this invest developing into "Abe" if the IMD names it of course and heads it northwest into Bangladesh/India region.

1200 UTC GFS model
thats not good


by the way 96B now has a T # of 1.0
BahaHurican:

Actually, no. Of all places to be and have an interest in tropical weather, I live in Iowa :) I grew up in the Houston and Beaumont areas, though, and have a number of relatives along the gulf coast.

Terranova -- re, the GFS:

I've been watching that region -- mainly because it's had consistently low shear and reasonable SSTs. It's been all dry air so far, but looks like it'll finally get some convection. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
they are saying soon that the Ruapehu volcano in New Zealand go blow up


whats going on here ???


we go Ruapehu volcano Chaiten Volcano Mt. Etna the Ubinas, Peru Volcano and now they are saying that they now have Yellow Alert at Puyehue Volcano how could all the Volcano be waking up???

Link


some in has to be in the roots of all of this you this cant have evere Volcano blowing up at the same time
288. Tazmanian 04:40 AM GMT on mai 13, 2008:
it might be some reasons for volcanos waking up like this: first i'd like to say that it could be simple and natural, due to the cycle of our planet, but meanwhile, the galactic transition and alignement could be blamed for this. Also, the extreme weather could be connected to this as well...
But this is only my opinion, after more than two years of study and selecting the info that the www and media somehow "leaked". And now in entire world is a "doomsday" psihoze that makes me laugh :))) What could be so wrong to our planet to change? I don't understand why the human race is struggling to "preserve" the planet as is? It won't be possible! It's not a pickle that could be closed in a jar among the preservatives and a lots of "E"-s :)) If the planet changes, human changes too, and I don't see anythig wrong on that. And what if some cataclysmic events may occure? Not all the human race will be swept away. Everythig it has it's order and time and place, nothing is made by "mistake". Sorry for this offtopic, but I can't hold it back ;)
So, neutrino....

Did you forget to take your meds?
RSMC: India Meteorological Department (New Delphi, India)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 13May)
---------------------------------------
Broken intense to very intense convective clouds over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal between 10N to 20N east of 90E, North Andaman Sea, South Arakan coast, Gulf of Martban and adjoining Southern Myanmar in association with low level circulation over the area.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0800z 13May)
=============================================
An area of convection (96B) located near 15.7N 97.1E or 85 NM southeast of Yangon, Myanmar. Recent animated multispectral and water vapor satellite imagery shows flaring deep convection near a developing low level circulation center evident in a 0106z SSMI image. The disturbance lies slightly equatorward of a synoptic scale, upper level anticyclone with low to moderate vertical wind shear and favorable diffluence aloft.

Maximum sustained surface winds are at 15-20 knots with a sea level pressure of 1006 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
JTWC has updated the info related to 96B...
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Bad news for Myanmar, unfortunately... The only good thing is the system is close to land, and it should develop slowly if it occurs.

Anyway, in the satellite images, I can see deep convection over the end of the Irrawaddy River, the most affected area by NARGIS :/ Surely torrential rains are taking plase again over it and surrounding areas...
From BBC

Page last updated at 11:28 GMT, Tuesday, 13 May 2008 12:28 UK version


Burma continues to reject help


Burma's military government has said it is still opposed to letting foreign aid workers in to help the many victims of Cyclone Nargis.

Vice-Admiral Soe Thein, of the military leadership, said Burma was grateful for the aid shipment from the United States which arrived on Monday.

But he said that so far there was no need for aid workers.

The US has said it hopes to send in two more transport aircraft carrying aid later on Tuesday.

Two lorries carrying relief supplies overland have also now arrived in Rangoon.

But aid workers complain that much of the aid delivered over the past week has not reached those who need it, because the Burmese military insists on controlling most of the distribution - despite lacking the equipment and expertise to do it well.

They describe delivering supplies in the Irrawaddy Delta with dugout canoes, and say they are badly overstretched.

The rest of the story: BBC News
From: Reuters

Rain lashes Myanmar cyclone survivors
Tue May 13, 2008 6:47am EDT

By Aung Hla Tun

YANGON (Reuters) - Heavy rains pelted homeless cyclone survivors in Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta on Tuesday, complicating already slow delivery of aid to more than 1.5 million people facing hunger and disease.

As more foreign aid trickled into the former Burma, critics ratcheted up the pressure on its military rulers to accelerate a relief effort that is only delivering an estimated one-tenth of the supplies needed in the devastated delta.

"The response of the regime in Burma to this crisis has been absolutely callous and those paying the price of this callousness have been the long-suffering Burmese people," Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told parliament

Link to rest of story: REUTERS
FLFreak

You may want to spell check you paper. coriolis effoect, or coreolis but not carreohwhatever.
I think gravity does not act like weather pressure systems since there is no up and down.

You may want to look at the TED.com talk on the African Einstein for newer gravity/space/big bang theories.

If you can draw conclulsions from you analogies, "like tornadoes in space" and then find them, That would be interesting.
Oddly, the tornado vid. Makes me want to get in one of those clear cusioned spheres that you walk inside and try to chase down an F1. If the sphere can take a fall from about 30ft, it might be a blast to ride one out in an open field without cars flying at you. THAT would be a cool vid.