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An Oklahoma Tornado Rewrites the Rule Book

By: Bob Henson 5:17 PM GMT on May 16, 2016

Overshadowed by the mighty EF4 and EF3 tornadoes that tore across south-central Oklahoma last Monday, May 9, another less damaging twister--from the same thunderstorm--has left seasoned scientists both astonished and fascinated. This tornado, which struck near Roff, OK, was rated an unexceptional EF1 on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Damage Scale. However, the Roff tornado stands out in several other ways.

—It was an anticyclonic tornado, meaning that it rotated clockwise rather than counterclockwise. A few such twisters probably occur each year, but they account for only perhaps 1% of all U.S. tornadoes—and that’s a very rough estimate, according to tornado climatology expert Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory). In fact, the Storm Data procedures maintained by NOAA include no specific requirement or methodology for reporting whether or not a tornado is anticyclonic.

—It developed in the “forward flank” part of the storm, enveloped in rain-cooled air. “This is the first time I’ve ever heard of a well-developed anticyclonic tornado buried inside the forward-flank core,” said Roger Edwards (NOAA Storm Prediction Center), who has predicted and observed tornadoes for more than 25 years.

—Its damage path was initially estimated to be as much as 13 miles long, as documented in a preliminary storm survey conducted by the National Weather Service in Norman, OK. If confirmed, this path length will likely be a record; I have been unable to find evidence of any other anticyclonic tornado with a path this long. The estimated duration of 35 minutes might also end up as a record-setter for anticyclonic tornadoes. However, reanalysis of the damage could reduce the estimated path length and duration, as the radar signature of the tornado was shorter-lived, according to Gabriel Garfield (University of Oklahoma/CIMMS/NWS), who participated in the storm survey.


Figure 1. An example of the relatively light damage inflicted by the anticyclonic tornado near Roff, OK, on May 9, 2016. Photo credit: Courtesy Gabriel Garfield, OU/CIMMS/NWS.


Figure 2. Doppler radar image of the supercell thunderstorm that contained a large EF3 cyclonic tornado (the Sulphur tornado) and a weaker EF1 anticyclonic tornado (the Roff tornado). The reflectivity image (top, with reds indicating heavy precipitation) shows the classic hook echo in connection with the EF3 tornado (labeled in the velocity image at bottom). The anticyclonic tornado (labeled in the bottom image) is firmly embedded in the heavy rain core along the storm’s forward flank, as shown in the top image. Image credit: Courtesy Roger Edwards and his Weather or Not blog.


The scarcity of anticyclonic tornadoes is not a direct result of the Coriolis effect, which makes tropical cyclones spin cyclonically. The Coriolis force actually has little direct influence on circulations as small as tornadoes (not to mention toilets or other drains that happen to cross the equator). What appears to be the main driver is the wind shear that produces rotating supercell thunderstorms. In the Northern Hemisphere, a blossoming supercell will often split in two, with one cell angling to the right of the mean upper-level wind, spinning cyclonically, and the other angling leftward and rotating anticyclonically. Rightward-moving, cyclonically-spinning cells are the ones better positioned to ingest warm, moist air and grow more vigorously. Thus, most tornadoes are cyclonic, spawned by mesocyclones within cyclonically rotating supercells. (This Wikipedia page includes a nice conceptual diagram of a supercell thunderstorm.) Toward the outer edge of a storm’s rear-flank gust front, there can be anticyclonically rotating features; very rarely, one of these will spin up an anticyclonic twister.

What happened in Oklahoma last week doesn’t quite fit the classic picture: the anticyclonic Roff tornado developed right in the rain-cooled heart of the storm rather than on its periphery. The Roff tornado was embedded in rain for most or all of its lifespan. “We saw no evidence of it in the gray murk of heavy rain to our [west], nor any suspicious wind shifts,” reported Edwards, who was on the same storm photographing the nearby Sulphur tornado. As for what caused the anticyclonic Roff tornado, “we can offer only speculation and conjecture at this point,” said Edwards in a blog post. The smoking gun could end up being a stray left-moving storm, evident on radar, that zipped northward and became embedded in the larger, stronger supercell that produced the Roff and Sulphur tornadoes. It’s conceivable that this left-moving cell injected some anticyclonic spin into the forward flank of the storm.

Deducing what happened will take some doing, as this storm was more than 50 miles from the Oklahoma City NEXRAD radar. Data from mobile radar, including the RaXPol unit operated by Howard Bluestein and colleagues (University of Oklahoma), may shed some light on the oddly positioned Roff twister. “Having a tornado in that location is worrisome for my team,” said Doppler on Wheels chief scientist Joshua Wurman in an email, “because we count on being able to transect cores safely. That's not where we expect to find danger.”

Edwards mused: “The odds are extraordinarily tiny of ever seeing another anticyclonic tornado entombed in the forward-flank core of even a violently tornadic supercell. Yet now we know it’s possible, and we must be vigilant of that.”

Some clockwise pioneers
There are extremely rare cases where a left-moving, anticyclonically rotating thunderstorm generates an “anti-mesocyclone” that spawns an anticyclonic twister, as occurred near Sunnyvale, CA, on May 4, 1998. However, the best-known examples of anticyclonic twisters occur in conjunction with more powerful cyclonic twisters as part of a single supercell thunderstorm, as was the case in Oklahoma last week. Sometimes these are weak, short-lived satellite twisters very close to the companion cyclonic tornado; others are stronger and more separated. Wurman unraveled DOW data for several of these in a 2013 Weather Analysis and Forecasting paper. “Our paper does not include any observations of [forward-flank] anticyclonic tornadoes, so this current one is certainly an outlier,” Wurman told me.

One classic case—probably the first anticyclonic tornado ever filmed—unfolded just west of Ames, IA, on June 13, 1976. In this storm, a powerful F3 anticyclonic tornado (the strongest anticyclonic tornado documented to date) closely paralleled the path of an F5 that ripped through the town of Jordan and the nearby countryside. The twisters were only about a mile apart as they moved largely in sync (see Figure 3). The YouTube clip at bottom shows both tornadoes.

A few years later, Ted Fujita and Roger Wakimoto examined the mammoth, nearly stationary supercell that tormented Grand Island, NE, for nearly three hours on June 3, 1980. (This is the storm that inspired the book and movie “Night of the Twisters”). Of the seven tornadoes that emerged that night, three were found to be anticyclonic. “This storm produced the most complex damage patterns imaginable,” wrote James McDonald (Texas Tech University) in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. “No one but Ted Fujita could have sorted them out.”


Figure 3. Damage paths from the tornadoes that struck just west of Ames, Iowa, on June 13, 1976. The F5 tornado is in purple, the anticyclonic EF3 tornado is in green, and a cyclonic F2 satellite tornado that rotated around the F5 is in yellow. Rows of dots are separated by one mile each. Image credit: NWS/Des Moines, IA.



Figure 4. Reflectivity imagery from mobile radars operated by Howard Bluestein and colleagues (University of Oklahoma) reveals cyclonic [C] and anticyclonic [A] circulations that were each associated with tornadoes in (a) eastern Colorado on May 25, 2010; (b) eastern Colorado on June 10, 2010; and (c) western Kansas on May 25, 2012. Image credit: Bluestein et al., 2016: Doppler radar observations of anticyclonic tornadoes in cyclonically rotating, right-moving supercells, Monthly Weather Review 144. ©American Meteorological Society. Used with permission.


Doppler radar sharpens the picture, but the process remains fuzzy
The growth of mobile radar over the last few years has yielded much more data on the evolution of anticyclonic tornadoes, although plenty of questions remain about how and why they form. A group led by Bluestein examined four such events in a paper published in April in Monthly Weather Review.

Perhaps the most notorious case was the El Reno, OK, storm of May 31, 2013, the one that killed storm researchers/photographers Tim Samaras, Carl Young, and Paul Samaras. That mammoth EF3 tornado, which lasted 41 minutes, was accompanied for 12 minutes by an anticyclonic EF2 tornado, several miles to its east, whose path arced southeastward (see Figure 5 below).

All four cases analyzed by Bluestein and colleagues involve anticyclonic tornadoes that developed on the rear, or trailing, end of a supercell’s rear-flank gust front. Each case also featured a mesocyclone producing a companion cyclonic tornado that was either weakening or had just dissipated. However, there was little consistency in the timing or in other aspects of these four cases, and "no characteristic stands out as being unusual,” the authors wrote. Multiple mechanisms could be at work in producing such anticyclonic tornadoes, they added. High-resolution computer simulations may tell us more about these clockwise mavericks in the years to come.


Figure 5. Damage track of the long-lived EF3 tornado that struck near El Reno on May 31, 2013 (T2, with the damage path outlined in orange) and the companion anticyclonic EF1 tornado that arced southeast (T3, in yellow). Image credit: Bluestein et al., 2016: Doppler radar observations of anticyclonic tornadoes in cyclonically rotating, right-moving supercells, Monthly Weather Review 144. ©American Meteorological Society. Used with permission.


Figure 6. WU depiction of convective outlooks issued early Monday morning, May 16, 2016, for Monday (left) and Tuesday (right).

A localized severe threat on Monday and Tuesday
There’s no rest for the storm-weary in Oklahoma and Texas, as another week will begin with a round of potentially severe weather. This time the threat will be focused in the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma, where a warm front will be lifting north and a dry line pushing east. Storms may cover a fairly broad swath along the warm front and dry line, but the strongest will likely be close to the intersection point, where NOAA/SPC has placed an enhanced risk area. A few tornadoes are possible, especially as low-level winds crank up toward late afternoon and early evening; the storms will likely congeal into a southeastward-moving complex late Monday. The pattern should repeat itself in south Texas on Tuesday, though tornadoes may be less likely, with upper-level energy increasingly separated from an advancing cold front. This cool, dry air mass will sweep across most of the eastern U.S. by midweek, pinching off the prospects of widespread severe weather through at least the end of the week.

We'll be back on Wednesday with our next post.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. One of the best illustrations I’ve seen of the life-saving value of tornado safety practice, drawn from the Sulphur tornado pictured above. From a Facebook post by the NWS office in Norman, OK: “We ran across this young man about 5 miles northwest of Sulphur, OK who was home alone at the time of the tornado. He was able to survive by doing exactly what we always tell people to do—he went to a small room in the center of his home away from outside walls and windows. He walked away without a scratch. There are no guarantees when it comes to tornado safety, but in most cases, the advice works!” Image credit: NWS/Norman.


Video 1. This mini-documentary on Theodore “Ted” Fujita’s research into the Iowa tornadoes of June 13, 1976, includes commentary from Fujita and high-quality (for the era) film footage of both the cyclonic and anticylonic tornadoes. The relevant segment extends from about 3:25 to 5:20.



Tornado Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Is the Blog broke?
Quoting 1. 69Viking:

Is the Blog broke?


No, I have at least 10 dollars on me.

Cheers
Qazulight
Thanks for the great information Bob Henson.

Here's what the SPC is seeing.
Development later this evening and overnight in N.W. Oklahoma.


Then the energy transfers down to South Central Texas tomorrow evening. Could end up producing another storm event starting in South Central Texas and then working its way down to the Corpus Christi area over night into Wednesday morning.
Thanks Mr. Henson..Great info awesome pics...Anti cyclonic tornadoes are weird..:)
What i see for this season.
Talking about the Oklahoma tornadoes.

Here's the Wunderground radar loop of the destructive tornado north of Sulphur Oklahoma. We very rarely see a perfect donut in the hook. That's bad news for anyone underneath that area.
Quoting 4. hydrus:

Thanks Mr. Henson..Great info awesome pics...Anti cyclonic tornadoes are weird..:)


Tornadoes are weird. Period. Just as well everyone knows what they can do, nowadays. In the past, probably not so much. There must have been a few early cowboys who didn't know what that strange whirly thing in the distance was.

"Hey, look at that - let's ride up and get a closer look, fellas". They wouldn't have been in Kansas for long.
A question to Mr. Henson or anyone else. Has there been any new information on the size of the damage path associated with the El. Reno tornado?
As far as I know it left the largest damage path (width - 2 miles) of any known tornado.

Someone correct me if my information isn't correct.

Thanks
Thanks for the update, glad to see things seem to be working again.
Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:

A question to Mr. Henson or anyone else. Has there been any new information on the size of the damage path associated with the El. Reno tornado?
As far as I know it left the largest damage path (width - 2 miles) of any known tornado.

Someone correct me if my information isn't correct.

Thanks


Yep, the maximum width of the damage path for the El Reno EF5 on 5/31/13 was 2.6 miles, which is the largest on record (as far as I know]. Here's a good summary page from NWS/Norman

The May 31, 2013 El Reno, OK Tornado
Great post! Thanks.
This year's list has already had some notorious storms come from it like Allen ,Andrew,Ivan,Georges eat..
Quoting 12. washingtonian115:

This year's list has already had some notorious storms come from it like Allen ,Andrew,Ivan,Georges eat..


Those names weren't retired?
Thanks for the interesting Post, Mr. Henson....
Is pbj sandwich considered appropriate public holiday food? I don't want to get up and cook... too lazy to drive for food.... even if the weather is grand :-)

Quoting 15. BahaHurican:

Is pbj sandwich considered appropriate public holiday food? I don't want to get up and cook... too lazy to drive for food.... even if the weather is grand :-)




Public Holiday? I say eat what you want...
Saw a waterspout 5/14 fishing off the north end of Long Island Bahamas. Spray circle on the ocean surface and funnel extended from a shower to about 1000 feet above the surface. Couldn't get a pic before it dissipated and I was paying some attention to how close it was since I was on a 40 foot boat. The captain saw it and thought it would be a threat if it got closer but was not much worried.

Waterspouts are very common down there and are not at all remarkable but they are a threat to boats.

Rotation BTW was cyclonic.
Invest 91 is already bringing death and chaos to Sri Lanka :
"At least eight persons including an infant have been killed in floods and landslides triggered by torrential rains in Sri Lanka, with the military being deployed to evacuate tens of thousands fleeing their homes, officials said today. Meteorology Department today warned of incessant rain and thundershowers throughout the country. (...)" Source : RSOE EDIS.

Apart from that, a severe heatwave is hitting an Indian State, Madhya Pradesh, a common occurrence for this time of year, but what is less common is its intensity, with temps going above 45 C at times. Another heatwave, centered on Jordan, is also impacting the Middle East right now.

By the way, thanks for keeping us informed about the latest freaks of Nature, Mr Henson. The story of the boy who survived the EF3 tornado is incredible ! Anyway, that's great advertising for tornado's safety practices ;-)
Quoting 10. BobHenson:



Yep, the maximum width of the damage path for the El Reno EF5 on 5/31/13 was 2.6 miles, which is the largest on record (as far as I know]. Here's a good summary page from NWS/Norman

The May 31, 2013 El Reno, OK Tornado


I remember watching that tornado live on chasers' streams. It was such a monster and not what most chasers (even the very experienced) were used to seeing. No one could have ever predicted a 2.6 mile wide tornado would have develop that day, even with high risk conditions.

Back in the 70s and early 80s I lived just S.W. of Oklahoma City. My friends and I would chase tornadoes with a NOAA radio and a CB to communicate. My good friend's father (Dr. Kimpel) was a meteorology professor at O.U.,and he later became the Director of the Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman. We were crazy teens chasing tornadoes by sight. Back in those days there were very few chasers.
It's hard to believe how popular chasing tornadoes has become. I would have never believed it 30 years ago when I was chasing tornadoes.
Quoting 13. 62901IL:



Those names weren't retired?
Not sure if this is sarcasm...
Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

Not sure if this is sarcasm...


Never mind, I just checked the naming list for 2016, and those names are not on there.

They are retired. So forget it.
Outstanding blog. Thank you.
Quoting 5. Gearsts:

What i see for this season.



I remember Keith. It was a very fast moving ts that hit Tampa over Thanksgiving. Didn't do much damage.
Atlantic 2016 storm name list

Alex (already used)
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
Here is the way I look at it,if we can get a powerful category 4 Hurricane Joaquin during a strong a strong El Nio,don't be surprised if we get a lot of unexpected surprises during this years hurricane season.
east pacific storm names 2016
Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Ivette
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
scary shary sounds kinda like a wild one who knows
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A small area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is moving
toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Shower activity is very
limited and further development of this low is unlikely due to
unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Avila
test test test

EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
WTNT01 KNGU 161500
SUBJ: HURRICANE BENJAMIN (83L) WARNING NR 022
1. HURRICANE BENJAMIN (83L) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 30.6N 79.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 79.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.7N 78.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 38.0N 75.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 42.1N 72.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 44.2N 68.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 47.7N 59.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 31.3N 79.0W.
HURRICANE BENJAMIN (83L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. 12 FT SEAS: 200NM NE, 200NM SE, 100NM SW, 75NM NW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
this is only a test
repeat
this is only a test



EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZMAY2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 81.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 81E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161349Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SRI LANKA AND SLOWLY WEAKENING
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
MALAY PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA INDUCING MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC WILL TRACK
POLEWARD OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 84.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 745 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161343Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ PASS
DEPICT SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE IS INDUCING 25-35 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, AND GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

Atlantic

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&
April PDO index is up to 2.62 and this reading is the highest ever for April This reinforces the idea that Levi discussed in his video about not common to have a positive PDO with La Nina present by the Summer or fall.

April PDO index
Thanks for the info on this unique event. Still looking stable at present in the TX Panhandle area this afternoon but the jet continues to push in that direction:

South Plains sector loop



I was working the 2013 El Reno storm with a research team. It was truly an unforgettable storm. I had no idea there was an anticyclonic vortex in that storm. Thanks for the informative post.
We're already teasing Ian from CWG about his name since Ian will be on the list this year.Hopefully it'll be somewhere over the open ocean..but you never know with these "I" storms..
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 5h5 hours ago
Dulles and Baltimore tied record lows of 37 degrees last night and this morning:
Here is the way I look at it,if we can get a powerful category 4 Hurricane Joaquin during a strong a strong El Ni�o,don't be surprised if we get a lot of unexpected surprises during this years hurricane season,we shall see :)
Quoting 37. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the info on this unique event. Still looking stable at present in the TX Panhandle area this afternoon but the jet continues to push in that direction:

South Plains sector loop






Nice little spin with that blob down in the gulf.
Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 5h5 hours ago
Dulles and Baltimore tied record lows of 37 degrees last night and this morning:


Looks like our string of above normal Mays starting in 2010 is about to come to an end this year. But I'm old
enough to remember widespread frost in the DC area (not at my Mt Vernon house of that time) May 18, 1973.

Quoting 43. Xyrus2000:



Nice little spin with that blob down in the gulf.


Notice how the bottom part from this morning, closer to the Bay of Campeche dried out leaving the Blob to the North: the convection is baroclinic and fueled by the Tutt cell draped across TX and into the Western Gulf:





These radical temp swings are lending credence to the research by Dr. Jennifer Francis as to the impact of Arctic melt/warming on the jet stream (with more meanders and troughs).  Arguably, we have to see how this impacts the pending Atlantic season and future ones; many a trough has saved the US from impacting hurricanes in August, and particularly in September, so you never know what will happen this year.  Might be an active season, but we still have to see where the A-B high sets up in August and the frequently of troughs (and how deep they are in the Fall).  


An image of final analysis of paths of the the Grand Island tornado "family" in 1980 referenced in the post.
And a personal account of the event (with photos) can be found at:
june 3, 1980 grand island tornadoes
I walked into my house that I have lived in for years and for the first time I could actually smell the wood in the attic it's so hot. The heat really makes it hard to do regular stuff here now. I don't recall it ever being or feeling this hot in May.
The choir has been singing this tune for some time now.

NOAA Global Climate Change Indicators


Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Thanks, Dr. Henson.

That anti-cyclonic tornado was certainly fascinating!
Blob fever is well established,..seems.
Quoting 24. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Atlantic 2016 storm name list

Alex (already used)
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter


Gaston'


O yeah'...magnificent beau'coup



Everyone have a safe weather evening and particularly for our folks in Northern Texas and OK; hoping for the best this evening as a few cells are starting to pop up just North of the Panhandle moving towards OK.  See Yall in the AM.



South Plains sector loop
Cities face flash flood hazards - May 15, 2016, by Tim Radford :
Scientists in Australia warn that global warming will lead to more intense and concentrated summer storms seriously testing city drainage systems already struggling to cope.
"When we say that the storms are shrinking in space and shrinking in time, and we say floods will increase, we are making an assumption that the volume of water coming down is not changing," Professor Sharma says.
"That assumption is very conservative, because you would expect the air to hold more moisture. If you factor in that as well, there'll be even more rainfall, and more floods."


How Rising CO2 Levels May Contribute to Die-Off of Bees - Lisa Palmer
A big problem, and not just for bees :
"Samuel Myers, a senior research scientist at Harvard's School of Public Health, has published groundbreaking studies on how rising CO2 levels lower the nutritional quality of foods that we eat, like rice, wheat, and maize, which lose significant amounts of zinc, iron, and protein when grown under higher concentrations of CO2."

Shock impacts hit Greenland's ice - May 14, 2016, by Tim Radford :
Ocean waves generate signals that sensors can pick up continuously, and Dr Prieto says: "They happen 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and they generate a very small signal, which we generally don't feel.
But very precise seismic sensors can feel these waves everywhere in the world. Even in the middle of continents, you can see these ocean effects."
Quoting 49. 19N81W:

I walked into my house that I have lived in for years and for the first time I could actually smell the wood in the attic it's so hot. The heat really makes it hard to do regular stuff here now. I don't recall it ever being or feeling this hot in May.


Hi,

I agree. Not just the heat but May is traditionally the month of the year when there is little or no wind and the North Sound looks like a mill pond. Not so this year. Every weekend it has been blowing between 15 to 20 MPH on the golf course ( 2 to 3 clubs extra into the wind ).

Today it was blowing really fierce out there with white caps on the Sound. It's been this way for months. Very odd.

We found a whistling duck standing on our pool deck last Friday trying to drink water. He was so weak I walked right up to him and he did not move. We gave him a big container of cool water under a shady tree and he drank for about 20 minutes then just lay down in the grass. He came back again for water on Saturday. Even the wildlife is struggling now.

We have only had .03 inches of rain in South Sound so far this month. 90 degrees here today.
keeping an eye on the 1008 mb low over northern columbia. that area of the world needs the rain.

Last Month Was The Warmest April Ever Recorded, Continuing 7-Month Hot Streak
Climate scientists have been warning about this since at least the 1980s. And it's been bloody obvious since the 2000s. So where's the surprise?
05/16/2016 03:58 am ET


NASA announced some grim climate news over the weekend.

April was the warmest month ever recorded, with soaring temperatures that smashed the previous monthly record by the largest margin in known history.

What is the pdo?
Quoting 36. Tropicsweatherpr:

April PDO index is up to 2.62 and this reading is the highest ever for April This reinforces the idea that Levi discussed in his video about not common to have a positive PDO with La Nina present by the Summer or fall.

April PDO index
Ya I was on frank sound today consistent 20mph out of the sse just weird. No chance of anything building in those winds when you have 80 plus knots out of the NW in the upper levels
Quoting 56. kmanislander:



Hi,

I agree. Not just the heat but May is traditionally the month of the year when there is little or no wind and the North Sound looks like a mill pond. Not so this year. Every weekend it has been blowing between 15 to 20 MPH on the golf course ( 2 to 3 clubs extra into the wind ).

Today it was blowing really fierce out there with white caps on the Sound. It's been this way for months. Very odd.

We found a whistling duck standing on our pool deck last Friday trying to drink water. He was so weak I walked right up to him and he did not move. We gave him a big container of cool water under a shady tree and he drank for about 20 minutes then just lay down in the grass. He came back again for water on Saturday. Even the wildlife is struggling now.

We have only had .03 inches of rain in South Sound so far this month. 90 degrees here today.
Quoting 59. 19N81W:

What is the pdo?

PDO = Pacific Decadal Oscillation :
- The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean.

- A brief overview for non-specialists, to appear in the Encyclopedia of Environmental Change.
"Fisheries scientist Steven Hare coined the term "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) in 1996 while researching connections between Alaska salmon production cycles and Pacific climate. PDO has since been described as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability because the two climate oscillations have similar spatial climate fingerprints, but very different temporal behavior."
So this on the GFS is...

this.

A very good in-depth article by Bartholomaus Grill for the German newspaper Der Spiegel about the current great African drought, focused on the current situation in Ethiopia.
Africa faces worst drought in half a century, more than 50 million people threatened by hunger.
Incredibly, climate change isn't mentioned at all in the article. The author deserves a tip from the fossil fuel industry for that.
El Nino gets the blame for the current drought, and rightly so in my opinion, but as you should know, this El Nino is not the strongest ever, and has occurred on top of global temperature records being constantly beaten for the third year in a row (assuming 2016 will be declared the hottest year ever in the modern temperature record, which is becoming an increasingly high probability, see "Met Office forecasts 2016 to be hottest year on record", Robert McSwinney - Carbonbrief.org, and the latest monthly global temperature averages).
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     AMARILLO TX - KAMA 520 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this is only a test
repeat
this is only a test



EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
Wow. Talk about a worst case scenario for Wilmington.... not to mention some nasty impacts for the Bahamas..... unfortunately not completely unprecedented.....
Quoting 67. redwagon:




It's late enough for some hybrid potential, if not fully tropical.....
It looks like this forms in the Caribbean and then heads northward.
Quoting 70. Climate175:

It looks like this forms in the Caribbean and then heads northward.


Euro ensembles show something similar around the same time. A little farther north kind of between Cuba and Bahamas. Something to watch.
Quoting 71. AtHomeInTX:



Euro ensembles show something similar around the same time. A little farther north kind of between Cuba and Bahamas. Something to watch.
GFS ensembles as well.
Global Warming to Spur More Fires in Alaska, in Turn Causing More Warming

"We know some of these areas haven't burned in thousands of years," said University of Montana fire ecology researcher Philip Higuera, who led the study along with Adam Young, an affiliate scientist at the University of Montana.

Across the state's North Slope, above the Arctic Circle, the shift is "far outside the range of natural variability we've seen in the last 6,000 to 32,000 years," Higuera said. ....................... "That four-fold increase by 2100, that's just huge. It's indescribable what that would mean to the landscape and the carbon cycle," said Michelle Mack, a professor of ecosystem ecology at Northern Arizona University, who was not involved in the study.

The statistical increase means that instead of a fire burning every 1,000 years in a given area, there will be a chance of a fire about every 200 years in that same area, Higuera explained.


Link
Dang. What's it like to hunker down next to your toilet, and when the noise stops all that's left is the toilet... and you?
Quoting 23. Bucsboltsfan:



I remember Keith. It was a very fast moving ts that hit Tampa over Thanksgiving. Didn't do much damage.
We were out that night at the Venice Jetty watching the night surfers. All the cars had there lights shining out toward the gulf. Waves were 11 to 15 feet, with nice break a little bit off the shore...it was fun to see....
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER, May 16, 1800Z (next JTWC summary should be issued around May 17, 1800Z)
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA : B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 81.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 81E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161349Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SRI LANKA AND SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA INDUCING MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC WILL TRACK POLEWARD OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
Rapidly changing fire conditions has resulted in a mandatory evacuation order for 1000's of people from all oilsands camps within 30 km / 20 miles north of Fort McMurray.
Quoting 56. kmanislander:



Hi,

I agree. Not just the heat but May is traditionally the month of the year when there is little or no wind and the North Sound looks like a mill pond. Not so this year. Every weekend it has been blowing between 15 to 20 MPH on the golf course ( 2 to 3 clubs extra into the wind ).

Today it was blowing really fierce out there with white caps on the Sound. It's been this way for months. Very odd.

We found a whistling duck standing on our pool deck last Friday trying to drink water. He was so weak I walked right up to him and he did not move. We gave him a big container of cool water under a shady tree and he drank for about 20 minutes then just lay down in the grass. He came back again for water on Saturday. Even the wildlife is struggling now.

We have only had .03 inches of rain in South Sound so far this month. 90 degrees here today.

sad to hear that k man but its the winds of change friend
soon things should change and get a more typical summer time pattern
with numerous thunderstorm cells forming converging and trying to spin something up
lets hope not too spun up but I hope for rains soon
as for the heat well we all know where that's heading
waters be warm down those parts as well maybe too warm soon
Noticed a new track forecast model being used in SHIPS this year, TABM. I guessing this has something to do with TAFB, however I cannot find any documentation on it. Anyone have any info on the model TABM?
Quoting 53. Patrap:



Gaston'


O yeah'...magnificent beau'coup


scary shary sticks out for some reason I don't know why but it does
Quoting 74. nonblanche:

Dang. What's it like to hunker down next to your toilet, and when the noise stops all that's left is the toilet... and you?
The toilet... and you... and your guardian angel.

I can't answer your question. Not many people around who could.
compared to last post

Thousands evacuated from work camps north of Fort McMurray in face of 'expanding and growing' firestorm

About 4,000 workers spread between 12 work camps near Fort McMurray have been told to evacuate as the wildfire moves rapidly north.

According to Alberta Emergency Alert, the wildfire is “expanding and growing in size” and all camps located up to and including Ruth Lake Lodge, about 30 kilometres north of the city, as well as those camps and production facilities on Aostra Road, are being told to leave.

The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo says the fire is gobbling 30 to 40 metres of forest per minute and is now only six kilometres from Tower Road, a dirt road where several residential trailers are located.


Link
Quoting 77. DCSwithunderscores:

Rapidly changing fire conditions has resulted in a mandatory evacuation order for 1000's of people from all oilsands camps within 30 km / 20 miles north of Fort McMurray.

Thousands evacuated from work camps north of Fort McMurray in face of 'expanding and growing' firestorm - Edmonton Journal.
"The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo says the fire is gobbling 30 to 40 metres of forest per minute and is now only six kilometres from Tower Road, a dirt road where several residential trailers are located. (...) Most of Alberta remains under an "extreme fire risk" and there is still active fire growth around Fort McMurray."

(Edit : lol, RobertWC, this time you were faster than me...)
During a news conference on Monday, Premier Rachel Notley urged those not already in the Fort McMurray area to stay away, due to air quality so toxic it surpasses provincial measurements.

Alberta uses a scale of one to 10 to measure air quality, with 10 considered to be the highest risk.

Air quality in the Fort McMurray area on Monday morning was 38.


Link
Quoting 71. AtHomeInTX:



Euro ensembles show something similar around the same time. A little farther north kind of between Cuba and Bahamas. Something to watch.


We're gonna drown. With kinked-up hair and smeared mascara :(
Quoting 87. redwagon:



We're gonna drown. With kinked-up hair and smeared mascara :(


Hey red. It certainly seems that way. It rained here all day. But one of those all day rains that doesn't add much to the totals. Corpus got it bad last night. :( Still have no clue how to post a picture on this iPad but the new qpf shows more coming for the whole state next 7 days.
Looks the same?
Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compared to last post


Surprise
Quoting 71. AtHomeInTX:



Euro ensembles show something similar around the same time. A little farther north kind of between Cuba and Bahamas. Something to watch.
Sorry didn't look at the Caribbean side so used to looking at the pacific I have all but forgotten about our region
Quoting 82. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Quoting 58. Patrap:


Last Month Was The Warmest April Ever Recorded, Continuing 7-Month Hot Streak
Climate scientists have been warning about this since at least the 1980s. And it's been bloody obvious since the 2000s. So where's the surprise?
05/16/2016 03:58 am ET


NASA announced some grim climate news over the weekend.

April was the warmest month ever recorded, with soaring temperatures that smashed the previous monthly record by the largest margin in known history.




And yet somehow we are all still here. Not denying anything, just amazed. Well, I don't know, maybe all of the rest of you are dead by now. Here in my underground bunker we're still hanging in there with the interweb and everything.
Trades were blowing at 25 knots today out of the south east that's weird and I snorkeled 2 huge Coral heads that a year ago were amazing today I am devastated to say they look like they are covered in snow wtf are we doing to our planet folks?
Quoting 92. LouisPasteur:



And yet somehow we are all still here. Not denying anything, just amazed. Well, I don't know, maybe all of the rest of you are dead by now. Here in my underground bunker we're still hanging in there with the interweb and everything.
We are on the downhill side of the tipping points. Glad you have a bunker.
Uh oh, looks like we've already lost most of the world's coral reefs by now. Go check it out, it seems this endless train of quasi-apocalyptic news never stops. Australia's Great Barrier reefs, Florida, India, etc... The corals are dying, and apparently it's no slow death.
Cursed be the IPCC and all those who have been constantly and knowingly understating the facts, they will be judged harshly for the sinister job they did, right since the beginning, in the name of scientific consensus or whatever. The disservice they did to (almost) all life on this planet may be as serious as what the deniers have done. After all, all they've done has been posing as "the reasonable voice in the debate" : this has always been one of the best tools in the hands of the rulers to perpetuate their domination.
Quoting 92. LouisPasteur:



And yet somehow we are all still here. Not denying anything, just amazed. Well, I don't know, maybe all of the rest of you are dead by now. Here in my underground bunker we're still hanging in there with the interweb and everything.


Not denying anything, but suspiciously full of specious arguments. Makes you think, eh?
97. IDTH
Quoting 68. BahaHurican:

Wow. Talk about a worst case scenario for Wilmington.... not to mention some nasty impacts for the Bahamas..... unfortunately not completely unprecedented.....

I've been waiting for that scenario for a while. Really thought Irene was going to be the one and but it wound up not really affecting us as much as I thought it would. Arthur and Ophelia were very similar and close in proximity but never made landfall in that region. I swear it's like the last Hurricane that I believe made a full landfall in that location was either Floyd or Fran (neither I was around for).
Quoting 95. 999Ai2016:

To me, it looks like we've already lost most of the world's coral reefs by now. Go check it out, it seems this endless train of quasi-apocalyptic news never stops. Australia's Great Barrier reefs, Florida, India, etc... The corals are dying, and apparently it's no slow death.
Cursed be the IPCC and all those who have been constantly and knowingly understating the facts, they will be judged harshly for the sinister job they did, right since the beginning, in the name of scientific consensus or whatever. The disservice they did to (almost) all life on this planet may be as serious as what the deniers have done. After all, all they've done has been posing as "the reasonable voice in the debate" : this has always been one of the best tools in the hands of the rulers to perpetuate their domination.


Yep glad we snorkeled the reefs in 99. The last time we went in 2010 they were all either bleached or gone. I thought the Grenedines might be better, but I don't think so. I have heard that the ABC islands are fighting hard to save theirs, but it is a struggle.

Qazulight
Quoting 92. LouisPasteur:



And yet somehow we are all still here. Not denying anything, just amazed. Well, I don't know, maybe all of the rest of you are dead by now. Here in my underground bunker we're still hanging in there with the interweb and everything.
I thought your comment was Pats...Eyes are bad..Did not mean to plus this...Jus for the record, were alive and kicken louis


from Tropical Tidbits. Even though the El Niño regions still have positive anomalies, they are in the neutral range, and this looks a lot like a La Niña to me.
Quoting 7. yonzabam:



Tornadoes are weird. Period. Just as well everyone knows what they can do, nowadays. In the past, probably not so much. There must have been a few early cowboys who didn't know what that strange whirly thing in the distance was.

"Hey, look at that - let's ride up and get a closer look, fellas". They wouldn't have been in Kansas for long.
The Indians from way back called them Dead Man Walking..Sometimes when there are multiple vortices, it resembles legs walking across the plains.
Quoting 92. LouisPasteur:



And yet somehow we are all still here. Not denying anything, just amazed. Well, I don't know, maybe all of the rest of you are dead by now. Here in my underground bunker we're still hanging in there with the interweb and everything.


Oh. Well you're okay so I guess that's all that really matters. :P
Quoting 78. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


sad to hear that k man but its the winds of change friend
soon things should change and get a more typical summer time pattern
with numerous thunderstorm cells forming converging and trying to spin something up
lets hope not too spun up but I hope for rains soon
as for the heat well we all know where that's heading
waters be warm down those parts as well maybe too warm soon


No sign of that happening any time soon. I guess once it does start to rain it wont stop !. Extremes seem to rule world weather these days.
Invest 91 is trying to organize into a decent cyclone. Will it beat the models?

To me, it looks like it's been undergoing some intensification during the last hours. Now I can see telltale signs of a cyclonic structure, with a large convective core, two arms emerging and the convective clouds rings getting more circular when looking at the large-scale shape, when I could see none of these only 6 hours ago. Am I alone on this?
Quoting 104. 999Ai2016:

Invest 91 is trying to organize into a decent cyclone. Will it beat the models?

To me, it looks like it's been undergoing some intensification during the last hours. Now I can see telltale signs of a cyclonic structure, with a large convective core, two arms emerging and an overall shape getting more circular, when I could see none of these only 6 hours ago. Am I alone on this?


Circulation is still exposed on the northeast side of the convection, but it's definitely organizing.
Quoting 92. LouisPasteur:

And yet somehow we are all still here. Not denying anything, just amazed. Well, I don't know, maybe all of the rest of you are dead by now. Here in my underground bunker we're still hanging in there with the interweb and everything.
Bunker is an interesting word choice.
Hard to believe that we are facing a battle bigger than ww2 in terms of climate change but because no one is dropping bombs or losing money no one does anything about it. Feel bad for the men and women that gave it all and we the people that benefited still continue to destroy our home
Quoting 95. 999Ai2016:

Uh oh, looks like we've already lost most of the world's coral reefs by now. Go check it out, it seems this endless train of quasi-apocalyptic news never stops. Australia's Great Barrier reefs, Florida, India, etc... The corals are dying, and apparently it's no slow death.
Cursed be the IPCC and all those who have been constantly and knowingly understating the facts, they will be judged harshly for the sinister job they did, right since the beginning, in the name of scientific consensus or whatever. The disservice they did to (almost) all life on this planet may be as serious as what the deniers have done. After all, all they've done has been posing as "the reasonable voice in the debate" : this has always been one of the best tools in the hands of the rulers to perpetuate their domination.
Quoting 100. ThatHurricane:



from Tropical Tidbits. Even though the El Niño regions still have positive anomalies, they are in the neutral range, and this looks a lot like a La Niña to me.


The smaller scale positive anomalies are irrelevant; La Nina is developing.
Pretty amazing to see Dr. Greg Forbes decades ago. Really interesting documentary and really interesting tornado. We are in an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather Tuesday here in central Texas.
Quoting 104. 999Ai2016:

Invest 91 is trying to organize into a decent cyclone. Will it beat the models?

To me, it looks like it's been undergoing some intensification during the last hours. Now I can see telltale signs of a cyclonic structure, with a large convective core, two arms emerging and the convective clouds rings getting more circular when looking at the large-scale shape, when I could see none of these only 6 hours ago. Am I alone on this?

It's been a tropical cyclone for several days. IMD is just a crap agency.
Some low pressure with that thing. Trincomalee, Sri Lanka was at 29.49" earlier. However, pressures are even lower in the heat trough at the Ganges plain. Monsoon storms can be big, relatively deep and yet not well-defined enough to be a tropical cyclone.
Greetings and Blessings to All!

Thanks so much to Bob for that Post; truly excellent and fantastic in its depth and scope. Also, Very insightful & well analysed as presented...To all of us worldwide reeling from the effects of Climate change and its respective amplification of the effects of Global weather phenomena like El Nino and the like, let us do our best to be resilient & adapt in the best ways possible.
It certainly is a powerful reminder of how utterly vulnerable we are as human beings in this dear planet of ours, and by extension it illustrates how so much we take for granted is so fragile, and ultimately quite providentially held in balance by forces and Divine realities which can very easily mystify our own limited human comprehension.
All the best to everyone for this upcoming Hurricane season 2016. May God continue to Richly Bless us All!
Quoting 106. BaltimoreBrian:

Bunker is an interesting word choice.


one of these will do the trick

Working on my hurricane season prediction blog. Probably be ready in a few days.
Quoting 115. BaltimoreBrian:

Stunts like #sweatergate make it even harder for female TV meteorologists to do their jobs (with video) By Angela Fritz

Oh my god Brian. Her shoulders are out. I saw a shoulder. What am I supposed to do?!?!? I can't live with this.
The Guardian thread about April's numbers is now at .............. comments (3574) ...............13 hours ago

The discussion this raising. I have never seen anything like this. About any climate report., any where.

April breaks global temperature record, marking seven months of new highs

Link
Most of us have the attention span of gerbils.
Quoting 121. RobertWC:

Most of us have the attention span of gerbils.


Not me. I'm beautifully attentive at all times. :)
Quoting 115. BaltimoreBrian:

Stunts like #sweatergate make it even harder for female TV meteorologists to do their jobs (with video) By Angela Fritz


I saw that. That is the News I watch every morning......
124. flsky
The best thing to do if a tornado is imminent and you're not underground is to lay on the floor of the bathroom and wrap your arms around the toilet. I personally know of a couple of people who were saved by this.

Quoting 81. Barefootontherocks:

The toilet... and you... and your guardian angel.

I can't answer your question. Not many people around who could.
Quoting 65. 999Ai2016:

A very good in-depth article by Bartholomaus Grill for the German newspaper Der Spiegel about the current great African drought, focused on the current situation in Ethiopia.
Africa faces worst drought in half a century, more than 50 million people threatened by hunger.
Incredibly, climate change isn't mentioned at all in the article. The author deserves a tip from the fossil fuel industry for that.
El Nino gets the blame for the current drought, and rightly so in my opinion, but as you should know, this El Nino is not the strongest ever, and has occurred on top of global temperature records being constantly beaten for the third year in a row (assuming 2016 will be declared the hottest year ever in the modern temperature record, which is becoming an increasingly high probability, see "Met Office forecasts 2016 to be hottest year on record", Robert McSwinney - Carbonbrief.org, and the latest monthly global temperature averages).

Drought there and some other big droughts presently have started in neutral or Niña conditions. Years ago.
Yes the media are sys te mat ic cal ly avoiding CC.
Reply #110

At least they've been monitoring it since Saturday and now they have Dvorak at 1.5 for the depression initialization.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB01-2016
8:30 AM IST May 17 2016
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over northern Sri Lanka and adjoining areas of Gulf of Mannar and southwest Bay of Bengal moved north northwestwards, concentrated into a depression. The depression lays centered near 11.0N and 81.0E, about 240 km south southeast of Chennai.

It is likely to move north northwestwards during next 12 hours and northwards thereafter along northern Tamil Nadu & southern Andhra Pradesh coasts. It is likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hours.
QUOTE:

74. nonblanche
11:19 PM GMT on May 16, 2016
10 +
Dang. What's it like to hunker down next to your toilet, and when the noise stops all that's left is the toilet... and you?


Thinking about such thoughts... I built several Geodesic Domes as homes...
Good morning all

Clear calm and quiet in Nassau so far this morning .....

Looking at this, I'm sure we'll be experiencing rather different conditions later today .....



:-)
Quoting 121. RobertWC:

Most of us have the attention span of gerbils.


Indeed, I enjoyed the Frank Zappa you posted over at Scribbler, thanks.
130. MahFL
Waiting for the deluge of rain and the crack of thunder here in NE FL. We are very dry and need the rain.
Quoting 130. MahFL:

Waiting for the deluge of rain and the crack of thunder here in NE FL. We are very dry and need the rain.
If TX didn't wring every drop out, you should see some decent showers today .... more or less on time for afternoon storms season to start ....
Quoting 115. BaltimoreBrian:

Stunts like #sweatergate make it even harder for female TV meteorologists to do their jobs (with video) By Angela Fritz
Spend a few moments wallowing through the comments under that article, and you'll become depressed by the sheer number of ignorant people who simply don't get it. It's saddening; it's maddening.
latin america seems to be getting needed rains. a friend said this last winter Jaco costa rica (their summer) that they only got one good rain storm during all those months. costa rica like venezuela depend on full rivers for the source of power.
Good Morning.  The Conus forecast for today:
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue May 17 2016

Valid 12Z Tue May 17 2016 - 12Z Thu May 19 2016

...Severe thunderstorms possible for most of Texas...

...Heavy rain possible over portions of Texas and Oklahoma...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average from the Central
Appalachians westward to the Central/Southern Rockies and Southern
Plains...

An upper-level low will sink southward over the Great Basin and into the
Desert Southwest by midweek. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for the northern Intermountain West southward
to the Great Basin/Southwest and eastward to the middle and lower
Mississippi valley. Higher elevations of Utah, Wyoming and Colorado will
likely have snow over the next few days. Unstable conditions over the
southern Plains today will be conducive for strong to severe thunderstorm,
particularly for Texas. Most of the state has a slight risk per the Storm
Prediction Center, with an enhanced threat for the Hill country and
adjacent counties. Heavy rain will be possible across this region as well,
as slow storm motion is anticipated along the nearly stationary boundary
that sets up over the area. Excessive rainfall outlooks encompass portions
of Texas and Oklahoma today and tomorrow.

more rain in store for a part of the world that needs it acc/ to 8am nhc A surface
trough extends from the north coast of Panama to 10N80W
northwest over Nicaragua near 12N84W and over Honduras to near
15N84W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are from 10N-15N west of 82W to inland over Nicaragua. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 11N to the coast of
Panama between 78W-82W
Very active weather pattern across the US today, due to the jet and lows, with rain/snow in the West and severe storms and precip to the mid-section and East:




Storm Reports from Yesterday:

yesterday Reports Graphic
And in climate news, an article from yesterday on one of the alternate Co2 measurement sites (other than Mauna Loa):

(I am missing by link buttons so I cannot post the working link)

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05 /atmo spheric-carbon-dioxide-soars-past-crucial-mileston e

CO2 measurements taken at Hawaii's Mauna Loa observatory briefly surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in May 2013. And 400 ppm has been briefly topped at Mauna Loa every year since.

The reason for the fluctuating reading in Northern Hemisphere observatories is that they are subject to huge seasonal cycles. CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, but growing plants spread over the huge land mass pull CO2 from the air in spring and summer. In contrast, Cape Grim has a very, very small seasonal cycle, Krummel says. And thanks to its location in the Roaring 40s, where strong westerly winds blow at latitudes 40 and 50 in the Southern Ocean, the air is clean. So if its a 400 Day at Cape Grim, its a 400 Day worldwide.

140. MahFL
Quoting 138. weathermanwannabe:

And finally, the storm reports from yesterday and outlook for today...


You posted the wrong image, this is today's outlook :


Quoting 140. MahFL:


Thanks; I did mean to post today's outlook but posted the reports for today............Corrected and thank you.
Teeny Blobus

143. MahFL
Quoting 142. JrWeathermanFL:

Teeny Blobus




Heading my way too :).
at the moment as i understand it el nino surface waters temps are still above normal but water 100-200 ft depth are colder than normal and making a move to the surface.

Quoting 144. islander101010:

at the moment as i understand it el nino surface waters are still above normal but water around 100-200 ft depth are colder than normal and making a move to the surface.
Little by little as the colder water propagates from SA:
That observation from the article below as to Co2 emissions concentrating in the Northern Hemisphere is consistent with the industrial revolution/fossil fuel burning across Europe/US/Asia and also consistent with Arctic melt/warming issues. Every time that the polar jet moves into a position where it allows a warmer air mass to move North into the polar regions, it probably also results in a surge of Co2, as well as ice darkening soot, to move up as well from the mid-latitudes (and multiply that by decades of exposure)..................That is consistent with the scientific observations across the board in terms of the disproportional impacts of GW on the Arctic region.
Quoting 129. gr8lakebreeze:



Indeed, I enjoyed the Frank Zappa you posted over at Scribbler, thanks.
Zappa was a eccentric , but brilliant musician...You may dig this....Link
Alright Texas and Oklahoma, share some of that rain with those of us further East, we really could use some rain in NW Florida. We've had a few sprinkles this morning but hopefully will get more later today.
The Blob in the Gulf is being sheared to death.............................



Quoting 142. JrWeathermanFL:

Teeny Blobus




The correct term is Blobus minisculus. :)


Quoting 150. Grothar:



The correct term is Blobus minisculus. :)





Perhaps the shear will perform a blobectomy before it reaches Florida.
Quoting 128. BahaHurican:

Good morning all

Clear calm and quiet in Nassau so far this morning .....

Looking at this, I'm sure we'll be experiencing rather different conditions later today .....



:-)
Good morning Baha...Some of the global models are hinting at a recurve year. Which would be good for folks that were hit by Joaquin, but if anything big forms, it seem that the Florida east coast and Bahamas would have something to watch...Notice how the CANSIPS model keeps the Bermuda High near the Azores, but reaches far to the west during August..CFS has about the same..


Like grandma used to say: "Never count your blobs before they hatch."

Quoting 151. rmbjoe1954:



Perhaps the shear will perform a blobectomy before it reaches Florida.
i saw zappas kid perform at wanne 2015 at suwannee music park. his band for me was the highlight of the music festival.
Quoting 154. islander101010:

i saw zappas kid perform at wanne 2015 at suwannee music park. his band for me was the highlight of the music festival.


Love that Music park, been there the last 3 years for Springfest!
156. MahFL
Oh oh :

Pretty cool to see the progression of the two blobs yesterday into the Blobus Minisculus today. Can't blossom in that shear, but has been pushing lower shear for the last two days now. Pretty compact for so early in the day, overnight was good for it, maybe it will put on a show and we'll have our first legit blob alert of the season. I'm sure the worlds' renowned and unrivaled blobologist will keep us up to date.
Three ball, corner pocket-

Quoting 143. MahFL:



Heading my way too :).
Even teenier blobus west of Andros .... let's see what happens with that one ....
Quoting 84. RobertWC:

Thousands evacuated from work camps north of Fort McMurray in face of 'expanding and growing' firestorm

About 4,000 workers spread between 12 work camps near Fort McMurray have been told to evacuate as the wildfire moves rapidly north.

According to Alberta Emergency Alert, the wildfire is “expanding and growing in size” and all camps located up to and including Ruth Lake Lodge, about 30 kilometres north of the city, as well as those camps and production facilities on Aostra Road, are being told to leave.

The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo says the fire is gobbling 30 to 40 metres of forest per minute and is now only six kilometres from Tower Road, a dirt road where several residential trailers are located.


Link


Wow. the current map still has it still moving through mostly woodlands, but it certainly is not going away any time soon. I hope people understand the risks posed by the air quality.

Fort McMurray fire perimeter and hot spots from the last 24 hours indicated. Courtesy of GeoGratis.



Although, some affected are taking it in stride, as best they can

Quoting 152. hydrus:

Good morning Baha...Some of the global models are hinting at a recurve year. Which would be good for folks that were hit by Joaquin, but if anything big forms, it seem that the Florida east coast and Bahamas would have something to watch...Notice how the CANSIPS model keeps the Bermuda High near the Azores, but reaches far to the west during August..CFS has about the same..



I was looking at that earlier this weekend and thinking what a lousy set up for us .... if that gets "stuck" like some other highs have done over the last few years, it won't make much difference to the Bahamas and FL where the storms originate ....

Though if the high is strong enough it may run systems through the Caribbean and into the GOM as opposed to over us. Check out .... 2007 .... I think it was .... with Felix and Dean? .... that had such a high persisting ....
Possible blob to be has rapidly developed a pretty strong core.
On that point daddyjames, rain through south central Wisconsin last afternoon and evening pushed smoke to the surface from that fire. Have seen it daily for awhile now, usually to far up to make it down to surface. Only really smelt it twice.
Rainbow, Funktop, Dvorak, this feature is looking good and certainly confirms a core that's rapidly intensified. Some green coming soon for those who enjoy funktop image. Must have found a very favorable micro-environment in all that shear.
thank you for the clip about fujita. fujita is to tornados like paul hebert is to hurricanes. pioneers.
too early to blob watch right?
real feel of 104 in Cayman today. I woke to what looked like a chance at a droplet of water......as usual as the temp and dew point move apart any hint at anything dries up.....nothing producing weather here.....
Centex pilots, mets get to check out HH Craft 5/16:

Link

Quoting 166. franklincounty:

too early to blob watch right?


I'm pretty sure an unspoken blob watch was issued about three hours ago.
Quoting 113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



one of these will do the trick



No way, the bunker is supreme!

Quoting 167. 19N81W:

real feel of 104 in Cayman today. I woke to what looked like a chance at a droplet of water......as usual as the temp and dew point move apart any hint at anything dries up.....nothing producing weather here.....
Where are you at on the Island?
Quoting 170. JNFlori30A:

Hammer tech?
Quoting 84. RobertWC:

Thousands evacuated from work camps north of Fort McMurray in face of 'expanding and growing' firestorm

About 4,000 workers spread between 12 work camps near Fort McMurray have been told to evacuate as the wildfire moves rapidly north.

According to Alberta Emergency Alert, the wildfire is “expanding and growing in size” and all camps located up to and including Ruth Lake Lodge, about 30 kilometres north of the city, as well as those camps and production facilities on Aostra Road, are being told to leave.

The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo says the fire is gobbling 30 to 40 metres of forest per minute and is now only six kilometres from Tower Road, a dirt road where several residential trailers are located.


LinkAt least it's nearly autumn, so there's not a long hot summer ahead of us. Oh, wait...
Because of wind shear, these blobs can often resemble segelflossendoktor fish



Its another depressing dreary day outside.Right now it is currently in the 50's with moderate rain and a breeze here or there,however the Euro predicts that we will soon be seeing 90 degree weather by the end of the month.Oh lovely.... So much for those days in between.
Quoting 174. Grothar:

Or mammatus? ;)
Quoting 79. nrtiwlnvragn:

Noticed a new track forecast model being used in SHIPS this year, TABM. I guessing this has something to do with TAFB, however I cannot find any documentation on it. Anyone have any info on the model TABM?


It refers to The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TABM). What you linked to is the SHIPS Intensity forecast, not a forecast track produced by SHIPs.
Seggle
Flossin
Doctor
fish?
No, it's not tropical, nor is it even a storm. However, it is something the models missed and is aiming for the Florida Peninsula. Expect tropical storm like conditions as a heavy convective mass of energy moves across the area tonight. SPC should really consider upgrading to a marginal risk for the eastern half of Florida. HRRR looks downright scary.

should weaken as the day goes by...

Our fishy blob has that classical elongated sheared core. Little fighter on the hook though. Can it get stronger? May have maxed it's potential.
Going out to meet the NHC NOAA P-3 Orion and crew tomorrow at the NOLA Lakefront Airport. 2:30- 5pm CDT.

Quoting 181. DeepSeaRising:

Our fishy blob has that classical elongated sheared core. Little fighter on the hook though. Can it get stronger? May have maxed it's potential.
I believe it will lose some dynamic support when heating starts. There will still be thunderstorms that crop up over the sunnier areas over the state of Florida, but move quick to the N.E...jmo..
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 17m17 minutes ago
We predict 40-45 90-degree days June-Aug in DC, normal is 31. (Meanwhile, still no 80-degree days this May!)
Quoting 175. washingtonian115:

Its another depressing dreary day outside.Right now it is currently in the 50's with moderate rain and a breeze here or there,however the Euro predicts that we will soon be seeing 90 degree weather by the end of the month.Oh lovely.... So much for those days in between.


GFS maintains troughiness in the East or Southeast coast upper low, through the end of the month and that's consistent with hugely high PDO favoring western ridging.

And June usually has a lot of decent days here.
Fort McMurray fire. Surface winds not helping either as they are coming from several directions, CO levels shown. Image from earth.



Edit: surface wind comment.
very sw point of the island....
Quoting 171. JNFlori30A:

Where are you at on the Island?
Quoting 174. Grothar:

Because of wind shear, these blobs can often resemble segelflossendoktor fish






Oh, I thought it was this . . . ;)

Quoting 184. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 17m17 minutes ago
We predict 40-45 90-degree days June-Aug in DC, normal is 31. (Meanwhile, still no 80-degree days this May!)
I believe that is a little too high for whats happening around the Northern Hemisphere...Especially with the unpredictable jet...And this is for July ( Not that I swear by long range models ) but that is not a pattern that favors high heat in your region.

Here we see and observe the thrill seeking wunderblogger trying out His new Hurricane Suit atop Mt. Washington.

A rare catch .\\\


The Mount Washington Observatory shared video from weather observers Mike Dorfman and Tom Padham that shows the effects of strong winds on top of the New Hampshire mountain.





This is not pandering, just an opinion; TWC has really got their act together. Their coverage of severe weather and WU programming is really awesome. They are addressing the changing world and climate in a very real way in other programming also. WU has been, blog wise, quite tranquil. You know what they say about that. :)
Quoting 190. hydrus:

I believe that is a little too high for whats happening around the Northern Hemisphere...Especially with the unpredictable jet...And this is for July ( Not that I swear by long range models ) but that is not a pattern that favors high heat in your region.




Maybe influenced by this forecast - looks as if we all are going to be toasty this summer - although my probability (10%} means that as toasty as it usually gets here in the Southern Plains (ouch)..

Quoting 192. DeepSeaRising:

This is not pandering, just an opinion; TWC has really got their act together. Their coverage of severe weather and WU programming is really awesome. They are addressing the changing world and climate in a very real way in other programming also. WU has been, blog wise, quite tranquil. You know what they say about that. :)


Wait til the season starts firing up . . .
The TWC wunderground show has been a great success.

What they need is a good wunderblogger sharing some air time as the community was built here, and not on TWC site.



Semper Fi'


Quoting 189. daddyjames:



Oh, I thought it was this . . . ;)




Classic rookie mistake, Cleopatra made that same mistake when Gro taught his blob class. Jesus was talking to Peter and Gro was like "That's looks like one heck of a blob in the distance." Then all the fish in the net thing. First known blob sighting. And of coarse Gro was there. Saw the biggest flash flood in history too, right Gro. Ended up on top of Everest. Everyone always seems to forget that.
Tampa has had a well known hurricane shield for decades but it does not look like it will be able to escape this fishy blob later this evening:





Actually it looks like I am going to get hammered here in Tallahassee later today (and the Florida Big Bend region) with the strongest gusts and t-storms: this is a meso-scale complex and not a low pressure system so even thought the skies are turning dark in the Capitol, there is no wind whatsoever at the moment.

Satellite

Blob core is maintaining and slowing strengthening with a good inflow notch. Florida's going to get nailed if this doesn't hit the wall. Hydrus should be right based on conditions this little beast is trying to push through. Satellite show slow strengthening currently, we shall see.
And lookie at the wind gusts due South of Panama City (well away from the core of convection):
NDBC
Location: 28.739N 86.006W
Date: Tue, 17 May 2016 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt


Why when we have Jeff and [not-so-silent] Bob giving us the facts!




[I think I just doomed my chances for "Jeff and [not-so] Silent Bob's: Tropical Weather and Climate Blog" winning].
Indeed Patrap, through simple vanity I'll volunteer myself. I'm 39, classic handsome, informed on most subjects. Clearly AGW and global political struggle of what to do about it. I know truth, I seek it with a great fervor. Gro can play my dad and just open hand smack me upside the head anytime I say anything out of line. WU can use even more humor. I get humor needed in a very very sad and more troubling by the day world.
NWS Mobile


Previous discussion... /issued 552 am CDT Tuesday may 17 2016/ 

Near term /now through Tuesday night/...showers and thunderstorms
will increase in coverage mostly over the lower half of the forecast
area this morning continuing through this afternoon. This widespread
convection is mostly associated with a potent short wave trof
tracking eastward across the northern Gulf states through this
afternoon. Model soundings do show late morning and afternoon surface
based CAPES climbing to around 1500 to 2000 j/kg occurring mostly
over the lower half of the forecast area beginning by early afternoon
combined with bulk shear values ranging from 40 to 50 kts suggesting
maybe a few strong thunderstorms especially over the lower half of
the forecast area during the afternoon hours. This system looks to be
rather progressive with the better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms moving east of the forecast area by late this
afternoon and early this evening. With pwats climbing to 1.9 in over
the lower half of the forecast area later this morning locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible with the some of the heavier showers
or thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
can be expected tonight. As for temps will lean towards the cooler
mav numbers for highs today due to mostly cloudy skies and precip.
Will continue to lean towards the cooler mav numbers for lows
tonight. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 70s for most
areas. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 60s. 32/ee

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...models indicate
varying degrees of weak shortwave energy to continue to periodically
move west to east across the fcst area through the period. The
continuing series of shortwaves will gradually break down sfc high
pressure ridge over the area...likely bringing a frontal boundary
down toward the Gulf Coast by Thursday night. Low level flow will
predominately be out of the southeast through most of the period,
with moisture gradually increasing across the region. As such, expect
showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday...being most
numerous during the afternoon and early evening hours during the time
of greatest instability. Went above GFS and mavmos rain chances for
Thursday and closer to Euro, although trended pops down slightly.
Still kept good chance to likely pops, especially over interior which
matches neighboring offices fairly well. While rain chances are
fairly high, we don't have any excessive rainfall amounts in the
fcst, and although there will be some thunderstorms, severe weather
is not anticipated at this time. Daytime highs generally in the mid
80s Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows Wednesday night and
Thursday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 12/ds
Quoting 202. DeepSeaRising:

Indeed Patrap, through simple vanity I'll volunteer myself. I'm 39, classic handsome, informed on most subjects. Clearly AGW and global political struggle of what to do about it. I know truth, I seek it with a great fervor. Gro can play my dad and just open hand smack me upside the head anytime I say anything out of line. WU can use even more humor. I get humor needed in a very very sad and more troubling by the day world.


TWC already has Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson who are experts in climate science and AGW. What they should have on the Wunderground show is guests (especially the outspoken critics) that don't believe in AGW. Then there could be a real discussion to understand the thinking process of the people who don't believe.

That would allow Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson to educate and correctly inform non-believers of what's happening to the Earth. That I would really like to watch.

NWS Paducah's forecast discussion said this:
Radar estimates of rainfall for this event have been significantly
overdone.
In the Carbondale area, the radar estimates have been
nearly twice what has actually fallen. Thought that yesterday`s
QPF might be overdone, but with another one half to three quarters
of an inch possible, some locations may still end up with a total
of an inch or a bit more.



Does this look overdone to you?
Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:



TWC already has Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson who are experts in climate science and AGW. What they should have on the Wunderground show is guests (especially the outspoken critics) that don't believe in AGW. Then there could be a real discussion to understand the thinking process of the people who don't believe.

That would allow Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson to educate and correctly inform non-believers of what's happening to the Earth. That I would really like to watch.



No thanks. We do not need the PR industry here. There can be no debate let alone discussion with those thugs.
If you want to discuss (heh, heh) with them, go to their blogs. Maybe you can achieve some practise on the little Deltoid Quagmire. Or perhaps you can task yourself with a few 'skeptics' here (e.g. 'NativeSun').
Your call is like a call on a blog about evolution theory, inviting creationists 'for a real discussion on their thinking processes'. That could actually be more interesting, though forget the 'thinking processes', since contrary to fossil fuel PR people creationists actually do believe in their nonsense.
Called it! Marginal Risk of severe weather over eastern FL as the MSC moves in..

Expecting 2-4 inches of rain here in Palm Coast today, haven't had that much in a long time.
Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:



TWC already has Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson who are experts in climate science and AGW. What they should have on the Wunderground show is guests (especially the outspoken critics) that don't believe in AGW. Then there could be a real discussion to understand the thinking process of the people who don't believe.

That would allow Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson to educate and correctly inform non-believers of what's happening to the Earth. That I would really like to watch.




You can't reason people out of a position they didn't use reason to get into.

Climate change deniers are not interested in reasoned arguments. They are either terminal cases of cognitive dissonance 'I don't like it, so I'm not believing it', or they have an agenda, which usually means they're being paid.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 1157 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016
Red Alert. All hands...Weatherstations.



Yikes, We might have a beast in the Indian ocean.
Quoting 177. daddyjames:



It refers to The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TABM). What you linked to is the SHIPS Intensity forecast, not a forecast track produced by SHIPs.


SHIPs for the current storm is using that model for the forecast track:

"FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM"

LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.1 15.0 16.1
LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.7 119.4 120.8 122.1 123.4 124.5 125.2 125.4 125.2 124.2

Do you have any links or docs for this Aussie Model?

I don't think it is an Aussie model, but a track from The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB). Just looking for documentation on it.
Quoting 211. yonzabam:



You can't reason people out of a position they didn't use reason to get into.

Wonderfully put.
Quoting 214. Famoguy1234:



Yikes, We might have a beast in the Indian ocean.

Yes. We might.
Very worried for Bangladesh.
What do you guys think would be happening in the GOM if no shear was present?
219. MahFL
Quoting 218. Loduck:

What do you guys think would be happening in the GOM if no shear was present?


Likely a Tropical Depression would form.
Shear is actually declining in the Gulf near the Blob but not enough time to develop (moving too fast across the Gulf); baroclinic convection from the adjacent Tutt cell and no vorticity at any level:




The whole mess is telegraphing in the general direction of Steinhatchcee on the coast, Lake City further inland, across I-75, and then on towards Jacksonville and Savanna and parts nearby by this evening.

Southeast sector loop
JB on WU. Operation crush a troll.
We're seeing our first green in Funktop, this is not weakening. Some micro-environment is allowing continued strengthening. This event may need to be very shortly more closely warned by the SPC. Looking like this could have very real impacts.
A bit ironic that after reading "When Hurricane Season Starts Early" I see there are zero Active Tropical Storm Advisories on the planet right now.
Quoting 223. Gearsts:




Possible Arthur redo?
Quoting 225. canyonboy:

A bit ironic that after reading "When Hurricane Season Starts Early" I see there is zero tropical storm activity on the planet right now.

Quick, go tell the people of Sri Lanka :

"Over 200,000 people have been affected by torrential rains and flash floods that have wreaked havoc in Sri Lanka, killing eight people with nine others still missing, officials said on Tuesday. "19 of the 25 administrative districts in the island were affected by heavy rains, floods and earth slips. 47,922 families or 207,556 people have been affected," Disaster management spokesman Pradeep Kodippily said. He said 176 shelters provide accommodation to over 134,000. Some 68 homes have been completely destroyed. The capital Colombo was the worst hit with many roads going under water. "The low pressure situation which caused heavy rains had now moved towards South India," Lalith Chandrapala, Meteorological Department official said. The rains have been lashing the country for the last three days, felling trees, damaging power cables and blocking roads and connectivity. On Monday, the armed forces had also been put on alert. As many as eight districts were issued landslide warnings." (Source : RSOE-EDIS / May 17 2016 04:33 PM (UTC))

Joint Typhoon Warning Center / Issued at 17/1800Z.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 81E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 81.1E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA
. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 171337Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ PASS DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR
AND AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS BROAD, AND THE SYSTEM EXHIBITS THE STRUCTURE OF A SLOW-
MOVING MONSOON DEPRESSION
. SINCE YESTERDAY, THE LLCC HAS EMERGED
OVER WATER NORTH OF SRI LANKA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH 20-30 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
,
MODEST RADIAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MOST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER WATER ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
Quoting 226. DeepSeaRising:



Possible Arthur redo?
It doesn't look tropical in nature.
Recent satellite images show a core that is still rapping up. Western Florida about to be in for a nasty surprise.


Quoting 215. nrtiwlnvragn:



SHIPs for the current storm is using that model for the forecast track:

"FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM"

LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.1 15.0 16.1
LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.7 119.4 120.8 122.1 123.4 124.5 125.2 125.4 125.2 124.2

Do you have any links or docs for this Aussie Model?

I don't think it is an Aussie model, but a track from The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB). Just looking for documentation on it.


You most likely are correct. I emailed them, hopefully they'll reply with at least what it stands for.
Quoting 229. DeepSeaRising:

Recent satellite images show a core that is still rapping up. Western Florida about to be in for a nasty surprise.


I'm guessing the microburst/downdraft/straight-line winds could be a problem. A WUer in FL just the other day went through one... probably 70-80pmh. He posted the downed tree pics.
quite a cloud to ground lightning show we just had. hope everyone hunkered inside e cen florida
What's up? Chillin' here in central Texas waiting for storms to fire up. Hope everyone's been well.
Quoting 232. Patrap:



:( earlier it looked like the blob was heading more northerly, and going to bring us more excitement.. now it's heading ENE :( and might give us some action later this evening :( was looking forward to a blustery day :(
Good Afternoon Everyone..

Subtropical system?

send some down here;(
Quoting 236. JNFlori30A:


:( earlier it looked like the blob was heading more northerly, and going to bring us more excitement.. now it's heading ENE :( and might give us some action later this evening :( was looking forward to a blustery day :(
239. 882MB
Levi actually mentioned the latest Euro run in his tweet..

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 48s49 seconds ago

Well this would be fun in late May...



Fort McMurray fire: More evacuations ordered as blaze heads northward - The Globe and Mail, May 17 (w/ pics and movies)
- The wildfire has grown to about 3,550 square kilometres.
- High winds have spurred the quickly spreading wildfire as tinder−dry conditions persist in the region.
- The Alberta government is taking a second look at its plan to allow people to return home to Fort McMurray after explosions damaged some homes in the city and a raging wildfire spread north toward oilsands plants.
- The fire overnight destroyed a 665−room work camp north of the city and two other camps are threatened by the flames.


A simple .gif worth many words...
Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
FLC061-171915-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0007.160517T1841Z-160517T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 240 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER VERO BEACH HIGHLAND...OR OVER VERO BEACH SOUTH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH BEACH AROUND 250 PM EDT.
GIFFORD AROUND 300 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE JAYCEE
BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 2755 8032 2756 8032 2755 8033 2754 8035
2756 8036 2756 8044 2761 8052 2771 8035
2757 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 227DEG 12KT 2760 8039

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

ULRICH
Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:



TWC already has Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson who are experts in climate science and AGW. What they should have on the Wunderground show is guests (especially the outspoken critics) that don't believe in AGW.
I'm not quite certain I understand how science would be served by providing yet another public platform from which the anti-science crowd can spew its idiocy. Besides, they already have an entire cable "news" network, a few dozen popular radio hosts, and the majority of the US House of Representatives; how much more do they need?
Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:

Then there could be a real discussion to understand the thinking process of the people who don't believe.
There is no actual "thinking process" used by the group you've politely called "the people who don't believe" aside from "I don't like facts and evidence." So, again, not sure what good could come of such a thing.


Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:

That would allow Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson to educate and correctly inform non-believers of what's happening to the Earth.
But . such education and informing has been going on for years, for decades; by this point, anyone who hasn't yet been educated and informed about what's truly happening is either too ideologically blind to change or simply too dull to grasp it.
Tornado warning for Hancock county and this thing has that look of one on the ground with a hook echo to it
Issued by The National Weather Service
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
1:45pm CDT, Tue May 17
TORNADO WARNING FROM 1:45PM CDT TUE UNTIL 2:15PM CDT TUE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 144 PM CDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF SAUCIER... OR 14 MILES NORTH OF DIAMONDHEAD... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
HAZARD... TORNADO.
SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... SAUCIER AROUND 215 PM CDT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS... IN A MOBILE HOME... OR IN A VEHICLE... MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Quoting 235. muddertracker:

What's up? Chillin' here in central Texas waiting for storms to fire up. Hope everyone's been well.


Same here in Lago Vista. We'll get hit about the same time our donated MSC hits FL. Not really looking forward to it.


For Patrap et al. Semper Fi.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 258 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER LAKEWOOD PARK...OR OVER INDRIO...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FORT PIERCE...FORT PIERCE INLET AND QUEENS COVE AROUND 330 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
FLORALTON BEACH.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 200 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 259 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 145 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 244 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 241 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 228 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 117 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 215 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Tropical funnel clouds possible Tuesday in New Orleans, Baton Rouge areas
1 / 4
Weak tropical funnel clouds are possible in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi on Tuesday afternoon (May 17).
Mark Schleifstein, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Mark Schleifstein, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune By Mark Schleifstein, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on May 17, 2016 at 1:31 PM, updated May 17, 2016 at 1:33 PM
18 shares

Weak, tropical funnel clouds are possible in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi on Tuesday afternoon (May 17), thanks to a moist tropical air mass that's spawning numerous showers and a few thunderstorms, according to forecasters with the Slidell office of the National Weather Service.

"This activity is moving northeast and some cells may have funnels extending below them," forecasters said in a special weather statement. "Those funnels over or near bodies of water may actually become waterspouts. These are expected to be short-lived in duration and generally do not pose a threat to land areas."

A tornado warning was in effect until 2 p.m. for parts of Harrison and Hancock counties in Mississippi for a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado, located over Diamondhead. National Weather Service radar indicated rotation in the storm.

Emergency managers reported seeing a funnel cloud north of Harrison Central High School in Lyman, moving northwest.

A balloon launch early Tuesday found the lower half of the atmosphere in southeastern Louisiana to be saturated with moisture. The amount of water available for precipitation was measured at 1.94 inches, which forecasters said was a record for May 17.

Forecasters expect most of Tuesday's rain to stay south of a line from Baton Rouge to Slidell to Picayune, Miss., according to a morning forecast discussion message. But they warned that some training of showers and thunderstorms -- multiple storms moving over the same location -- was possible, which could cause minor flooding in low lying areas.
Still pretty dry in NW Florida, seems lately we get rain all around us but it misses us.
The amount of water available for precipitation was measured at 1.94 inches, which forecasters said was a record for May 17.



The Warmer Wetter Earth Atmo 2.0 is flexing again.
thats awesome

Quoting 248. ChiThom:



For Patrap et al. Semper Fi.
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-
Sent: 15:11 EDT on 05-17-2016
Effective: 15:11 EDT on 05-17-2016
Expires: 15:30 EDT on 05-17-2016
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING
FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER ST. LUCIE
AND MARTIN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT HOUR.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...STUART AND INDIANTOWN.
FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE BRIEF...SMALL
TORNADOES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS
TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE
SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES
India To 'Divert Rivers' To Tackle Drought - Navin Singh Khadka, for BBC News - May 16

Ka-boom... This could become one of the biggest disasters ever, possibly a global game-changer, as India's population is now well over 1 billion, and on the verge of becoming the most populated country in the world, before China. The advent of this mega-project would be a major geopolitical event, I'm sure. The prospect of seeing India's greatest river, Ganges going dry in the next years before it reaches the sea is now very real... Maybe many other rivers too. I sincerely hope they get fair monsoon rain totals, and that they do not make this desperate attempt at solving their water problem, their plan looks like unbridled hubris to me... And could exacerbate political tensions, internally as well as externally. Water is a very sensitive issue in the region. Too many droughts occurring at the same time in the world nowadays (fortunately, it still isn't a big problem for the global food system... Yet)

- At least 330 million people are affected by drought in India.
- The drought is taking place as a heat wave extends across much of India, with temperatures in excess of 40C.
- Following two consecutive bad monsoons, India is facing one of its worst droughts.
- Of its 29 states, nearly half were reported to have suffered from severe water crisis this dry season.
- The federal government in Delhi has had to send trains carrying water to the worst affected places.
- India has faced a water crisis for years. Its ground waters have depleted to alarming levels, mainly because of unsustainable extraction for agriculture and industries.
- The Inter Linking of Rivers (ILR) has 30 links planned for water-transfer, 14 of them fed by Himalayan glaciers in the north of the country and 16 in peninsular India.
- Environmentalists have opposed the project, arguing it will invite ecological disaster but the Supreme Court has ordered its implementation.


(Hang on for the ride, Florida, that pseudo-blob's got a nasty look)
Marines span Generations.


My Father a WW2 USMC 105 Gunner/F/O, Battle of Okinawa and Myself a few days before my Graduation in October 80.


Intense thunderstorms out in front of this blob in southern Florida. Off shore shallow waters not slowing convection coming onshore. Upgrade from marginal seems necessary immediately. Looking like an outbreak of severe weather may take place. many storms now pushing severe level across Florida and off shore flow from convective system is yet to come ashore. This is a sneaker system for sure.




All three models agree with a Cat 3-4 Hurricane slamming either Bangladesh or Myanmar.

Also the invest is at 30kt, which means its about to become a cyclone.

Any opinions on this storm guys?
Quoting 248. ChiThom:


For Patrap et al. Semper Fi.


Kinda looks like him, actually, except for the cane...
Hey guys what's up
Oh boyo today is a scorcher atleast we had some decent rain for most of the morning half of the day
As I understand it was only a few parts of the area that got the rain I guess I was lucky

Anyway we need tons more rain to ease drought conditions we would need like a few hurricanes worth

Anyway looks like this year we may just get that relief plus a little extra maybe
you must be the lucky one...
we havent seen any
Quoting 261. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys what's up
Oh boyo today is a scorcher atleast we had some decent rain for most of the morning half of the day
As I understand it was only a few parts of the area that got the rain I guess I was lucky

Anyway we need tons more rain to ease drought conditions we would like a few hurricanes worth

Anyway looks like this year we may just get that relief plus a little extra maybe

Quoting 262. Grothar:



BEWARE THE BLOB.......
Unexpected explosive convection over Florida and strongest is yet off shore. Conditions are set up for onshore flow to grow in convection as opposed to it usually waning. TD like conditions may spread over Western Florida soon and it's too late in the game to to give any warnings and expect them to be heeded. This system just exploded this morning and has been slowly strengthening since, despite of shear.
a rain maker....lucky them!
Quoting 259. Famoguy1234:





All three models agree with a Cat 3-4 Hurricane slamming either Bangladesh or Myanmar.

Also the invest is at 30kt, which means its about to become a cyclone.

Any opinions on this storm guys?


That's not a category 3-4 hurricane. You're not looking at surface winds:







Models show it peaking from a strong TS to a Category two. GFS/CMC have it making landfall as a TS into Myanmar and the HWRF as a category 1 hurricane into Myanmar. The biggest threat will be from the rain totals of up to and over 24" expected to fall over parts of Bangladesh/India/Myanmar in acossiation with the storm:





Let's hope it doesn't end up as a category 3-4 hurricane on landfall as well.
Quoting 262. Grothar:




nice summer like type pattern

Rain all around us in NW Florida but still just a trace of rain today, sure hope we get more out of this system. Lots of rain still to our West that should move East but will most likely weaken once the sun goes down.
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
310 PM CDT Tuesday may 17 2016

Short term...
active weather period continues across the forecast area. Radar
imagery over the last few hours shows quite a jump in intensity
along with coverage as daytime heating warmed the surface. Most of
the storms remain in the warm sector south of the stall frontal
boundary that was draped along a line from near Baton Rouge to
Hattiesburg. The GFS shows activity shifting south and east
through the rest of this afternoon as the very weak upper trough
that initialized the convection shifts east. The hrrr shows the
same depiction and this also matches up well with current radar
trends. So have increased pops over sela and coastal MS through
the remainder of the afternoon and significantly dropped rain
chances for late this evening and overnight to slight chance as
little if any showers expected with drier mid level air moving in.
The main threat thru the afternoon will still be water spouts and
isolated tornadoes, mainly near the coastline. Although there's
not a lot of strong wind in the mid and upper levels, there is
sufficient low level vertical and horizontal shear to potentially
see these hazards in the coastal waters and adjacent land areas.
Areas west of I-55 will not see much in the way of convection,
just a few showers.

Long term...
the lull in rain will carry over into Wednesday morning as there
will be not be as much lift from any upper level features to
enhance convection. However, daytime heating and possibly residual
frontal boundary could induce afternoon showers and storms. So, went
with 40 to 50% coverage during that period. Thursday does not look
all that different locally and thus kept the same or slightly higher
rain chances.

Friday still looks to be the most active day of the forecast period
as a more significant upper level trough tracks across the Southern
Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Exactly when the widespread
showers begins in still not completely certain but current models
show something similar to yesterday with convection moving in from
the Gulf of Mexico/SW la and spreading across the entire forecast
area. The widespread activity will likely last through Friday
afternoon and thus have carried likely pops through then. How much
rain is still uncertain at this time. The European model (ecmwf) shows maybe an inch
for most places. The GFS indicates a number much much higher than
that. Realistically thinking in the neighborhood of 1 to 4 inches
with isolated higher amounts. If this trend continues, Flash Flood
Watch may be needed for Friday.

The upper level trough will amplify as it tracks east across the
United States Saturday and Sunday. Post trough cold front will usher
in drier air and likely keep the region rain free. So, have dropped
rain chances for those days. Some nice and slightly cooler mornings
will be possible as well.

Meffer
&&
259. Famoguy1234 :
I'm just a beginner in cyclone watching, and no scientist/meteorologist; but I've done some research on the internet last year about sea level-rise and land subsidence in Bangladesh. IMO, this is THE country most at risk from climate change-driven sea-level rise in the short-term, as it's regularly hit by vicious trop. storms, it's holding the world record of fastest land subsidence rates in some areas and it's too poor to fully prepare for it (though they've done a good job in cooperatively building storm-surge shelters, dykes, all kinds of low-cost disaster management projects and educating the people about the threat). There are some interesting ressources to be found on the internet about it, from all-viewers documentaries to complex research papers...
Last year there was a rather weak tropical depression (name is "Komen") that went straight into Bangladesh, then flooding Myanmar from the Bay of Bengal, bringing lots of moisture with it : the floods have been rather deadly around there, with more than a 100 persons killed and it made me think... Along with the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone (apparently not following the same track as the current cyclone though) and the 1970 Bhola Cyclone.
A few interesting news articles can be found on the internet. There's an episode of "Years Of Living Dangerously" dedicated to the topic : The Future Is Now.
The consequences are already there, many people have already been forced to move farther from the sea, but only those who could afford it, unfortunately. Bangladesh is really one of the best case-study, when it comes to the disproportionate impacts climate change is having on the poorest, and its role in aggravating economic inequalities...
- Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, Bangladesh - sea-level rise - Union of Concerned Scientists
- Haunting Photos Show Effects Of Climate Change In Bangladesh - Huff. Post (sensitive people, be careful)

(Edit : at the moment, the storm hasn't yet organized into a decent cyclone, as the JTWC reminds us in their last issued warning, and as you can see with the help of 273. Patrap's link. Things could change fast, though.)
Did anybody else enjoy seeing a young Greg Forbes working in the Fujita lab in the video posted in the blog. He enters at the 8:56 mark.
Quoting 243. Neapolitan:
I'm not quite certain I understand how science would be served by providing yet another public platform from which the anti-science crowd can spew its idiocy. Besides, they already have an entire cable "news" network, a few dozen popular radio hosts, and the majority of the US House of Representatives; how much more do they need?There is no actual "thinking process" used by the group you've politely called "the people who don't believe" aside from "I don't like facts and evidence." So, again, not sure what good could come of such a thing.

But . such education and informing has been going on for years, for decades; by this point, anyone who hasn't yet been educated and informed about what's truly happening is either too ideologically blind to change or simply too dull to grasp it.
Trying to understand what you said. I first misread "spew" as "spawn" and got a mental image of something wriggling. That's not right of course. I wanted to substitute a better image and found this for spew, which avoids the distasteful image I think that you had in mind.



Yep, they do have quite an organization, loose-knit but still an organization working cooperatively to spread the science denial message. I would differ on whether they have a thought process. I think it actually is somewhat similar to what you have done with your post: what can I say that will discredit my opponent and what is the best way to spread that message? It is a political thought process and in some ways is quite refined.

Science is not the issue, and acting as if they are talking about science in a way promotes their agenda. While it is true that the science education has been going on for years, the political education that needs to accompany it has been greatly lacking.

We need to keep in mind just what it is we are trying to accomplish. The goal is not something simple like winning an argument. We will require action by a large group of diverse people to address the issue of CO2 pollution and its consequences. On the other hand, I will agree in this way: the idea of putting denialists on TWC with Masters and Henson is just a political ploy.
Quoting 268. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



nice summer like type pattern



Where can you get that loop from?
Quoting 267. Envoirment:



That's not a category 3-4 hurricane. You're not looking at surface winds:







Models show it peaking from a strong TS to a Category two. GFS/CMC have it making landfall as a TS into Myanmar and the HWRF as a category 1 hurricane into Myanmar. The biggest threat will be from the rain totals of up to and over 24" expected to fall over parts of Bangladesh/India/Myanmar in acossiation with the storm:





Let's hope it doesn't end up as a category 3-4 hurricane on landfall as well.


Crud, I made a rookie mistake.

Thanks!
my dad was drafted right out of high school ended up as a pow in Germany 1945. the germans did not have any food for them and they took his shoes. the gi's traded for potatoes from the locals. he always told me. war sucks. he is one of the few people in the mid 60s that was anti war vietnam.
Quoting 276. Geoboy645:
Where can you get that loop from?
You can check the URL of the picture. It depends on your browser how to do that exactly.

FWIW I used Chrome and clicked "search google for image" and it said "Best guess for this image: tropical cyclone". Google is a wishcaster!
Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL

4:25pm EDT, Tue May 17

TORNADO WARNING FROM 4:25PM EDT TUE UNTIL 5PM EDT TUE

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 424 PM EDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL... OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF PEMBROKE PINES... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD... TORNADO.

SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.


Cyclone Nargis

2008 tropical cyclone

Cyclone Nargis caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Myanmar during early May 2008. Wikipedia

Total fatalities: 138,366

Highest wind speed: 134 mph

Date: April 27, 2008 – May 7, 2008

Affected areas: India, Bangladesh, Yangon, Sri Lanka, Myanmar (Burma), Ayeyarwady Region
Category: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (IMD), Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone (BOM)
Quoting 276. Geoboy645:


Where can you get that loop from?
weather tap u have to pay for it very cheap 7.95 per month normally have it from mid may till mid nov

go too weathertap.com u can sign up for a free 14 day subscription if u never have before
Quoting 267. Envoirment:



That's not a category 3-4 hurricane. You're not looking at surface winds:







Models show it peaking from a strong TS to a Category two. GFS/CMC have it making landfall as a TS into Myanmar and the HWRF as a category 1 hurricane into Myanmar. The biggest threat will be from the rain totals of up to and over 24" expected to fall over parts of Bangladesh/India/Myanmar in acossiation with the storm:





Let's hope it doesn't end up as a category 3-4 hurricane on landfall as well.

Models do not have the capacity to accurately resolve intense cyclones when it comes to surface winds. A Category 5 might show up with 110-115kt surface winds. Pressure is a better metric most of the time assuming you're not dealing with behemoths like Sandy where the wind/pressure relationship is skewed.
Quoting 278. islander101010:
my dad was drafted right out of high school ended up as a pow in Germany 1945. the germans did not have any food for them and they took his shoes. the gi's traded for potatoes from the locals. he always told me. war sucks. he is one of the few people in the mid 60s that was anti war vietnam.
Check out the letter Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. wrote home when he was freed from a German war camp. I think he suffered from survivor's guilt. Slaughterhouse Five was a favorite in the 1960's I think largely because of the anti-war sentiment it tapped into. I was never impressed by the writing myself. Vonnegut's letter mentions a death toll of 250,000 for the Dresden fire bombing, but a commission of German historians "in an official 2010 report published after five years of research concluded that casualties numbered between 18,000 and a maximum of 25,000". (Wikipedia, the Almighty) Small comfort.
it's overcast and getting darker .. maybe we'll get some rain from that blob out there in the Gulf. hope so. sure could use it. north florida/ suwannee river valley
286. MahFL
Quoting 224. DeepSeaRising:

We're seeing our first green in Funktop, this is not weakening. Some micro-environment is allowing continued strengthening. This event may need to be very shortly more closely warned by the SPC. Looking like this could have very real impacts.


Jax NWS says it will weaken as it hits the stabilized air over NE Florida.
Quoting 276. Geoboy645:


Where can you get that loop from?


You can make your own, just change lat, lon or zoom in the URL.
No rain yet today at my location on the south side of Fort Myers. I'm going to have to wait for the squall line to come through from the GOM. This S.W. flow across southern Florida is similar to a pre-frontal setup.
- CIMSS's Tropical Cyclones
I find this website very useful to get a better picture of the storm's surroundings (diff. spatial resolutions available), and to easily access data about current environmental conditions (accessible as overlays). Unfortunately, sharing gifs and pics is not as easy as with NOAA's website (.273 Patrap's link).
Gonna have some strong storms going through South Florida the next three days. Hopefully nothing severe. Keep your phones handy for severe alerts, especially if you drive around a lot for work.
Quoting 264. pottery:


BEWARE THE BLOB.......
Even with this ominous radar here in NE Fl not one drop of rain...yet. Typical for this time of year. Seems as if there is quite a struggle to squeeze a drop of water from the atmosphere. We haven't had any significant rainfall in close to two months and really need it!
293. MahFL
Quoting 291. Loduck:

Even with this ominous radar here in NE Fl not one drop of rain...yet. Typical for this time of year. Seems as if there is quite a struggle to squeeze a drop of water from the atmosphere. We haven't had any significant rainfall in close to two months and really need it!


We had a sprinkle, the storms keep going north and south of me. Humidity is only 49%.
Quoting 291. Loduck:

Even with this ominous radar here in NE Fl not one drop of rain...yet. Typical for this time of year. Seems as if there is quite a struggle to squeeze a drop of water from the atmosphere. We haven't had any significant rainfall in close to two months and really need it!
You can have my rain.
Still high and dry here just west of Panama City...
Looks like this will come ashore with some umph to it. Strong storms into Tampa/St. Pete and northward, with a good gust front and what should be a good soaking rain shield also. Not a tropical system, but wouldn't be surprised to see sustained winds at severe level in some areas from this.
Quoting 292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




The "blob" is putting out an outflow boundary 180 degrees around the system. And I suspect there's a nice gust front out in front of the main squall line.
On water vapor imagery looks like this system is pulling a lot of moisture with it. Wonder if that'll transition to onshore.
Quoting 293. MahFL:



We had a sprinkle, the storms keep going north and south of me. Humidity is only 49%.
here as well...the humidity anyway. We haven't even had a sprinkle yet :( even though the sky is dark gray and it us thundering like crazy!
According to GFS, Bangladesh can dodge this bullet, but Myanmar increasingly looks like it will be the next target of the epic floods to come.
Sri Lanka flood toll hits 11, thousands homeless - The Gulf Today, May 18 (loc.time)
- "This is the worst torrential rain we have seen since 2010".
What a coincidence, the year an El Nino rapidly switched to La Nina...
- Flooding and mass displacement due to torrential rains are common in Sri Lanka.
- In 2014, a landslide caused by heavy rains killed at least 16 people in a hilly tea plantation area and more than 100 went missing.
- "Over 200,000 individuals have been displaced by the floods and are being looked after at several welfare centres."
- The northern district of Kilinochchi received the highest rainfall of 373mm in the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning , or more than a quarter of the annual average rainfall in the region.

Want to wish my fellow Floridians good luck with the Blob; turns out that it is missing me here in Tallahassee (only overcast) to the South but the t-storms across a large swatch of the State are going to bring lots of rain and gusty wind gusts............................It's almost like a small tropical storm fire drill this evening (minus sustained winds)....Stay safe and off the roads this evening.


Satellite
Southeast sector loop
Looks very impressive for this time of day..Something unusual going on out there.

I hope it doesn't recurve towards the Eastern Seaboard as a hybrid afterwards... I wouldn't be surprised if it did.
I would hazard to guess we'll get a few tornadoes in Florida this evening. Interesting to see this system fight the elements and maintain strength through shallow water and land interaction after having pushed the shear all the way. This system has not behaved as expected at all. Heads up Florida, stay safe out there.
really gusty over here every once in a while the roof sings e cen florida
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
341 PM EDT Tuesday may 17 2016

Near term [through tonight]...

A complex of storms across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico
has helped to cut off some of the storms across the County Warning Area this
afternoon, in particular, the western third. Given this, have cut
back on pops across the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have developed across the County Warning Area though despite the complex in the Gulf
and as the convection associated with the complex in the Gulf lifts
northward, these storms will spread into the eastern part of the
County Warning Area.

Cape is decent this afternoon around 2000 j/kg while shear isn't all
that impressive. While widespread severe storms aren't anticipated,
an isolated strong to severe storm can't be ruled out through the
evening. A few persist rotating cells were observed earlier today,
however the circulations were too weak for any warnings. The deep
layer shear has been on a downward trend, but low level shear has
increased slightly, particularly across the Gulf of Mexico complex.

This activity will continue into tonight, with the best chances of
showers and thunderstorms mainly across the eastern half of the County Warning Area.
Cloud coverage will continue to persist that will keep low
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, well above normal. At
tlh, the forecast is about three degrees shy of the record high
minimum temperature.

Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...

With the shortwave moving east of the Florida Peninsula after
midnight, the initial synoptic support for convection will be gone
on Wednesday. A surface cold front is moving slowly south and should
become quasi-stationary as it reaches the Florida Panhandle on
Wednesday. This front could act as a focus for diurnally driven sea
breeze convection on Wednesday and Thursday. It appears that the
convective activity on Wednesday will be diurnally driven due to the
relative lack of synoptic upper-level forcing.

Some disagreement still exists between the models for wednesday's
forecast, and there is some uncertainty with how much cloud cover
will persist on Wednesday morning to inhibit heating and potential
convection. The GFS/NAM are indicating wetter conditions and greater
cloud cover than the European model (ecmwf). The highest pops throughout the day
Wednesday appear to be in the eastern side of the forecast area. Mid-
level dry air is furthermore expected to move into the area on
Wednesday night and should persist into Thursday morning, leading to
a decrease in pops over that time.

The next system will steadily progress eastward towards the Florida
Panhandle on Thursday, and combined with the diurnal forcing, should
lead to increased pops and numerous storms on Thursday afternoon and
evening. Models are in better agreement on rain chances for
Thursday, so will show pops across the area in the 50-60 percent
range.

Extensive cloud cover and precipitation will hold back the high
temperatures over the short term period to the low to mid 80s.
Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer, in the upper 60s and lower
70s, with high relative humidity.



Long term [friday through tuesday]...

The upper level pattern will gradually become more amplified with
a Sharp Ridge developing through the center of the nation and a
trough deepening over the eastern Continental U.S. Friday through the
weekend. A large cut off low is forecast to develop over or just
east of the Carolina's late Sunday and lift slowly northward early
next week. At the surface, the aforementioned quasi-stationary
front across our County Warning Area will lift north on Friday as a cold front
approaches ahead of the digging trough through the lower
Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms can be expected until the frontal passage late
Saturday/early Sunday. Much drier air will filter in Sunday
through Tuesday on the back side of the upper low. Despite decent
rain chances through Saturday and a cold frontal passage Sunday,
temps will continue to be near to above seasonal levels through
the period.

&&
Quoting 301. 999Ai2016:

According to GFS, Bangladesh can dodge this bullet, but Myanmar increasingly looks like it will be the next target of the epic floods to come.
Sri Lanka flood toll hits 11, thousands homeless - The Gulf Today, May 18 (loc.time)
- "This is the worst torrential rain we have seen since 2010".
What a coincidence, the year an El Nino rapidly switched to La Nina...
- Flooding and mass displacement due to torrential rains are common in Sri Lanka.
- In 2014, a landslide caused by heavy rains killed at least 16 people in a hilly tea plantation area and more than 100 went missing.
- "Over 200,000 individuals have been displaced by the floods and are being looked after at several welfare centres."
- The northern district of Kilinochchi received the highest rainfall of 373mm in the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning , or more than a quarter of the annual average rainfall in the region.




Myanmar?

Flooding and mass displacement due to torrential rains are common in Sri Lanka. The rains are expected to disperse slightly, weather officials said, as a low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal that brought them moves away, but strong winds will persist a few days longer.
Quoting 303. hydrus:

Looks very impressive for this time of day..Something unusual going on out there.




It's also strange for this time of year. We have very gusty winds and fast moving low level clouds, like what is typically seen with a tropical system or strong cold front. We had a major rain day just a couple weeks ago here, and we picked up 3.70 from it along with some minor wind damage and incredible lightning.

The part of the line moving into my area looks to be the weakest part, so I'm not expecting anything like that, but we should still get some gusty winds and some heavy rainfall.
Interesting there's not even a meso discussion up for Florida. No warnings. Yet very dangerous lightening producing storms all over the place with near severe conditions soon to push onshore. Tough situation, dangerous gray area of forecasting and warning the public.
Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
The most active Atlantic TC season on record for Accumulated Cyclone Energy is 1933 (2005 is in 2nd place).
Quoting 302. weathermanwannabe:

Want to wish my fellow Floridians good luck with the Blob; turns out that it is missing me here in Tallahassee (only overcast) to the South but the t-storms across a large swatch of the State are going to bring lots of rain and gusty wind gusts............................It's almost like a small tropical storm fire drill this evening (minus sustained winds)....Stay safe and off the roads this evening.


Satellite
Southeast sector loopAnd omg the lightening...Mah, it's finally pouring here. Maybe it'll be hitting you soon!
313. MahFL
Quoting 305. DeepSeaRising:

I would hazard to guess we'll get a few tornadoes in Florida this evening. Interesting to see this system fight the elements and maintain strength through shallow water and land interaction after having pushed the shear all the way. This system has not behaved as expected at all. Heads up Florida, stay safe out there.


It's an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), they are not uncommon. It's not a warm cored tropical system.
It's also beginning to weaken.
Quoting 313. MahFL:



It's an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), they are not uncommon. It's not a warm cored tropical system.


I don't know, this has dynamics to it that came together yesterday when the two mcs's became one over the GOM and then blew up over night. There's been a hybrid element to this since that's allowed it to thrive and lower shear by 20kts all along it's path. Has had a strong CDO all afternoon and has maintained strength. Some amplified low level strength with this has allowed it to now maybe develop in the Atlantic in some form.
1) - Incredible storm videos from Sao Paulo, Brazil, today (Twitter feed)

2) Torched! (Celsius, 50.6 degrees reached in Pakistan, or equivalent to 123 farenheit ! )


3) Global Droughts : A Bad Year - Peter Gleick
Quoting 314. DeepSeaRising:



I don't know, this has dynamics to it that came together yesterday when the two mcs's became one over the GOM and then blew up over night. There's been a hybrid element to this since that's allowed it to thrive and lower shear by 20kts all along it's path. Has had a strong CDO all afternoon and has maintained strength. Some amplified low level strength with this has allowed it to now maybe develop in the Atlantic in some form.


It doesn't have a central dense overcast associated with a low level circulation. It is a complex of storms with cold tops.
its not unusual to get these may systems just not recently central fl.
Certainly a dangerous night across Florida, this is a severe weather event for the state. Likely flooding to come.
Some decent rain totals and the main squall line is still in the GOM.
Quoting 281. Patrap:



Cyclone Nargis

2008 tropical cyclone

Cyclone Nargis caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Myanmar during early May 2008. Wikipedia

Total fatalities: 138,366

Highest wind speed: 134 mph

Date: April 27, 2008 %u2013 May 7, 2008

Affected areas: India, Bangladesh, Yangon, Sri Lanka, Myanmar (Burma), Ayeyarwady Region
Category: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (IMD), Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone (BOM)


Since happening, Myanmar have learned a very valuable lesson. A similar storm, Cylcone Giri, made landfall on Myanmar in 2010 with peak winds of 155mph. It only causes 157 direct fatalities as the government of Myanmar properly prepared themselves. I believe they will prepare themselves well once again for this cyclone. In the meantime, 91B is dumping huge amounts of rain over parts of India now, with some very cold cloud tops:



Hoping for some elevated southerly wave action as this passes off the SE coast. Got a gut feel that this may produce a small but robust swell. Not garden variety system. Day off tomorrow. Will be at my favorite south facing spot with an offshore wind.

Quoting 314. DeepSeaRising:



I don't know, this has dynamics to it that came together yesterday when the two mcs's became one over the GOM and then blew up over night. There's been a hybrid element to this since that's allowed it to thrive and lower shear by 20kts all along it's path. Has had a strong CDO all afternoon and has maintained strength. Some amplified low level strength with this has allowed it to now maybe develop in the Atlantic in some form.
Quoting 311. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
The most active Atlantic TC season on record for Accumulated Cyclone Energy is 1933 (2005 is in 2nd place).


Hmm...1933 looks kind of like 2005 in that it didn't have much Cape Verde activity. Wow.
Quoting 319. DeepSeaRising:

Certainly a dangerous night across Florida, this is a severe weather event for the state. Likely flooding to come.


The line just came through the Tampa Bay area - Northen Pinellas. Nothing severe, 5 minutes of heavy rain and 20mph winds.
Quoting 323. HurricaneFan:


Hmm...1933 looks kind of like 2005 in that it didn't have much Cape Verde activity. Wow.
No satellite at the time.
Ok crazies!
Gfs and euro are both hinting of some kind of system up here 7 days out.
I know its 7 days. Can someone give me a reason why we shouldn't pay to much attn. To this so called 991mb(euro) system besides it being a week out
Quoting 320. Sfloridacat5:

Some decent rain totals and the main squall line is still in the GOM.



Melbourne's rainfall estimate page is always well under the actual totals, Vero Beach has had a whopping 9.09 today so far and 4.70 in 1 hour and 7.87 in 3 hours, and that's in the 3 inch estimate shading on that image.

Link

Someone might want to make sure there aren't floating cars there, that's a heck of a lot of rain in a short time.

I've observed that Tallahassee, Miami, and Melbourne storm total images are usually well under actual totals. I wish these pages would update to the much more accurate estimates the NWS has access to now.
Quoting 324. Bucsboltsfan:



The line just came through the Tampa Bay area - Northen Pinellas. Nothing severe, 5 minutes of heavy rain and 20mph winds.


Yeah but I live in Pinellas too, and we got by far the weakest area, it got stronger again as it moved east, the line was much strong strong further north where some areas have had more than 4 inches in Hernando and Citrus.
Quoting 329. Jedkins01:



Yeah but I live in Pinellas too, and we got by far the weakest area, it got stronger again as it moved east, the line was much strong strong further north where some areas have had more than 4 inches in Hernando and Citrus.


I really thought we were going to get a lot mote out of this. Very disappointing.
Satellite image of the big Gulf rain blob as the sun begins to go down.

My husband told me to "Put that hurricane propaganda map away"
Not sure I quite buy this... it might as well be doing this though.

Quoting 328. Jedkins01:



Melbourne's rainfall estimate page is always well under the actual totals, Vero Beach has had a whopping 9.09 today so far and 4.70 in 1 hour and 7.87 in 3 hours, and that's in the 3 inch estimate shading on that image.

Link

Someone might want to make sure there aren't floating cars there, that's a heck of a lot of rain in a short time.

I've observed that Tallahassee, Miami, and Melbourne storm total images are usually well under actual totals. I wish these pages would update to the much more accurate estimates the NWS has access to now.


From near Vero Beach...

Impressive squall line is really racing across Florida. Surely some isolated severe winds in that line. Looks like it's picked up some in intensity since getting past your spot Bucsboltsfan.
Quoting 325. Gearsts:

No satellite at the time.

So it's possible 1933 could have been MUCH more active than 2005?
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

With the very deep moisture in place over South Florida this
afternoon into Wednesday, any thunderstorms that do develop could
produce heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches have
fallen already over some interior areas of South Florida from the
storms this afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are possible through early this evening with the
thunderstorms, and possible 2 to 4 inches on Wednesday with the
thunderstorms. If these forecast rainfall trends continue in later
forecast, then the midnight shift might have to consider a flood
watch for portions of interior South Florida for Wednesday.

Link
Treasure Coast International Airport...

We need to get IBM to send Masters to the ISS on the Soyuz,and of course it would be 3 up, one Soviet Cdr, One Dr. Masters, and of course, one, er, same aged wunder blogger for a 6 mth stay.

Think of the entries we would get as the flight would launch late May of course.

It's a idea,..share and talk among yerselves.

"Hmm, now where can we find a wunderblogger with Tropical Weather understanding along with orbital mechanics plus manned space flight History?.."

I wunder"....


That squall line stays intact, were going to pick up more heavy rain here in Melbourne. Been non-stop the past couple of hours. Flashes of lighting and thunder going on.
Quoting 335. DeepSeaRising:

Impressive squall line is really racing across Florida. Surely some isolated severe winds in that line. Looks like it's picked up some in intensity since getting past your spot Bucsboltsfan.
Quoting 335. DeepSeaRising:

Impressive squall line is really racing across Florida. Surely some isolated severe winds in that line. Looks like it's picked up some in intensity since getting past your spot Bucsboltsfan.


Has picked up a little bit in intensity. East and southeast coasts have been hit with very heavy rains today.
It's been over a decade since Florida experienced a hurricane landfall, an improbable record that won't likely last much longer, and may be snapped this season.As of 2012, only 36 percent of Florida residents were native born, and Florida was adding about 1,000 new residents a day as of December 2015.

We don't know if this will be "The year" for Florida.We have been saying that since 2006 and honestly with the way the steering currents have been since 2009 I wouldn't be surprised to see Florida go yet another year without a land falling hurricane.One sad fact though is that the complacency clock is ticking..
344. IDTH
Quoting 333. MAweatherboy1:

Not sure I quite buy this... it might as well be doing this though.



Jeez!
And I am one of those 36 percent Florida natives.
Quoting 342. washingtonian115:

It's been over a decade since Florida experienced a hurricane landfall, an improbable record that won't likely last much longer, and may be snapped this season.As of 2012, only 36 percent of Florida residents were native born, and Florida was adding about 1,000 new residents a day as of December 2015.

We don't know if this will be "The year" for Florida.We have been saying that since 2006 and honestly with the way the steering currents have been since 2009 I wouldn't be surprised to see Florida go yet another year without a land falling hurricane.One sad fact though is that the complacency clock is ticking..
Dear forum:

I have a discrepancy issue here.

CURRENT HGX disco:

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cap still holding over the area except near Matagorda Bay along
the remains of the boundary from near PEZ-PKV-PSX-south of 42035.
Stationary front in the northern counties weakening and some
indications that it may be lifting back northward near CLL. AMDAR
sounding from HOU showed a convective temperature of 95 and we
are holding in the 80-84 degree range.

This evening expect the storms near Matagorda Bay to meander
slowly north before weakening with development into
Jackson/Matagorda counties and possibly Wharton/Brazoria. Trend
should be for these to dissipate after 8 pm but further
development westward towards the storms developing now in the
severe thunderstorm watch west of the San Antonio region.
As the storms well to the west get organized late this afternoon
and evening they should propagate northeastward and even eastward
and could reach the western counties after 9 pm but more likely
after 11 pm. Cold front starts sagging back southward on Wednesday
and with weak diffluence spreading overhead. Wednesday the cap
over the area will be gone and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible across the region. Slow moving storms in nature
and capable of brief heavy downpours but probably not very
organized. Wednesday night into Thursday morning gets more
challenging as upper trough approaches and timing issues come into
play. Overall thinking is that rain chances increase Thursday
morning and that a large MCS will take shape over the western Hill
Country or southwest near the Rio Grande Valley and move eastward.
This would probably bring the threat of widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the area between noon Thu and 9 am Fri...+/-3-6
hours...for model differences in timing. Upper level support looks
very favorable and PW pools near the 1.9-2.0" range during this
period. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds and small hail may
be possible during this period as well but main concern will
probably be heavy rain...unless it comes in faster and tail end of
daytime heating lines up Thursday. Dry west and northwest flow in
the wake of the upper trough and weak Pacific front should
dramatically lower rain chances with Friday night and Saturday
having pleasant mild weather. Sunday the moisture returns and
slim rain chances will as well.


Earlier disco:

active flow aloft will keep chances for rain and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the end of the week. A building upper
level ridge over Texas should then quiet down the unsettled
weather pattern a bit over the weekend and into early next week.

The main item of concern for the next few days will be rainfall
coverage and amounts. This morning should see a break in the
rainfall coverage. An approaching upper level shortwave trough
will then bring at least isolated coverage this afternoon into
this evening. Chances for isolated strong or severe storms today
may depend upon when the low-level capping inversion will erode.
The latest Nambufr soundings show the potential for development
to begin during the late afternoon and continue through most of
the evening. MUCAPE values are forecast to reach between 3000 and
4000 as the Nam12 moves a pattern of vorticity advection overhead
during this time period. The Texas Tech 4km WRF has the
thunderstorm development in the south central portion of the state
with the storms then moving eastward into SE Texas during the
evening. On Wednesday rain and thunderstorm chances will
increase as a frontal boundary moves toward and into SE Texas from
the north.

Better rainfall coverage is forecast by the models on Thursday.
NAEFS model mean PW/s are forecast to reach to between 1 and 2
standard deviations above normal. Given the surface boundary that
will be in place plus the splitting upper level jet that is
forecast to be overhead, think that locally heavy rainfall may be
possible. A lot will depend upon how things set up and would like
to see another day`s worth of model runs in order to pinpoint any
areas where the heavier rainfall will set up. For now, a model
consensus would point toward the areas between Crockett,
Madisonville, and College Station
. However, some models are
keeping the heavier rainfall well west of the forecast area. Best
advice for now is to stay tuned for later forecast updates.


Does ANYONE know what the current thinking is in regards to whether or not Houston gets socked with a T-storm event that causes significant damage and flooding? Or does this happen to the north of the metro as suggested by the disco above? Please help me.
From solarham.com

Below is a pretty sweet aurora image sent to us by Fred Péron from Gaspé Peninsula, Quebec, Canada. This was captured during the geomagnetic storm on May 8th. Thanks for sharing!

psssst.


Detailed Forecast
Tonight
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 5 mph.
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
weakens out now till sunrise tomorrow


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston SC
710 PM EDT Tuesday may 17 2016

Synopsis...
an upper disturbance and weak surface low pressure will move
offshore through tonight. A trailing cold front will push south
of the region Wednesday and high pressure will build from the
north through late week. Low pressure will track from the Ohio
Valley to the mid Atlantic coast this weekend. This low will pull
a warm front through the region Saturday and will push a cold
front through the area early Sunday. High pressure will then build
into the region through early next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
the bulk of the heaviest rains have pushed offshore. Some light
rains will linger across the Charleston Metro over the next 1-2
hours with heavier tstms impacting the middle Georgia coast. The
risk for severe weather has generally ended, although a strong
storm or two could still occur over southern McIntosh County.
Adjusted pops to reflect current radar trends. With additional
shortwave energy to the southwest, the risk for isolated to
perhaps low-end scattered showers will persist for much of the
overnight period. There is much uncertainty how far north The
Wedge front will move overnight with most of the high resolution
guidance showing a variety of positions. With little in the way of
rainfall expected, a northward movement may very well occur. But
the degree of this is a big unknown. The position of the front
will be key to where areas of low stratus and possibly some fog
develops later tonight. Hope to pin this down a bit more later
this evening.

&&

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
wednesday: a cold front will pass through our are in the morning,
moving southward. Meanwhile, low pressure just off of the
southeast coast will slowly move to the northeast during the day.
We maintained chance pops across our Georgia counties and slight
chance pops across our South Carolina counties during the morning
hours; reflecting the where the deep layered moisture should
start. As a sea breeze develops and pushes inland during the
afternoon isolated/scattered diurnal showers/thunderstorms should
develop. Pops increase to chance by the afternoon across the
entire area. However, with the aforementioned front moving through
in the morning the high temperatures are forecasted to be in the
lower to mid 80s while dewpoints should be in the 60s. Instability
is questionable along with the strength of the cap across the
area. The greatest risk of thunderstorm development remains across
our southern counties where somewhat stronger instability and
weaker capping should be. A brief/isolated severe thunderstorm is
possible, especially if shear increases with future model runs.

Wednesday night: surface high pressure located over the middle
Mississippi Valley will slowly move southeastward, building
towards our area. This will usher drier air into our area, which
with the loss of peak heating will allow the showers/thunderstorms
to quickly dissipate in the evening. However, remnant moisture
across the area will allow a slight chance of pops to continue.
Lows should be in the 60s.

Thursday: below normal temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s will
prevail as high pressure continues to expand into the region from
the Ohio Valley. While the high will push a wedge of relatively
dry air into the southeast, a broad zone of overrunning moisture
embedded within west southwest flow aloft will persist over the
southeast. The position of this enhanced moisture and the
Prospect/location for any forcing for ascent provided by a weak
upper shortwave trough remains uncertain and this translates to
an uncertain pop forecast. The latest forecast depicts pops
ramping up from slight chance/chance Thursday morning to around 50
percent south/inland and 30-40 percent farther North/East
Thursday afternoon. Then, pops decrease to slight chance/chance
Thursday night. Lows should be in the 60s.

Friday: ahead of an amplifying longwave upper trough and developing
surface low pressure to the west, moisture transport and deep
layered forcing for ascent will increase. Thus, pops increase with
time, with likely pops far south/inland and high chance pops
elsewhere Friday afternoon. Temperatures could top out around 80f,
although clouds and an earlier onset of showers could hold temps in
the 70s in some areas.



Quoting 344. IDTH:


Jeez!

It's definitely a bug. All of the instability graphs have this steep drop, as well as the shear graphs.
6 day my local area forecast

Wed
18 May
Mainly sunny
61°F

39°F
Thu
19 May
Sunny
66°F

46°F
Fri
20 May
Sunny
70°F

48°F
Sat
21 May

A mix of sun and cloud
72°F

54°F
Sun
22 May
A mix of sun and cloud
77°F

54°F
Mon
23 May
A mix of sun and cloud
81°F


looks like the remainder of the week and the first long holiday weekend of summer is looking good so far
Quoting 344. IDTH:


Jeez!
Not correct just and error.
guess it will be ac installation weekend as well gonna get warm
Quoting 354. Patrap:






We're pocketed in the western panhandle...so far, but it's far from over. Kinda surreal here right now...


next Mondays gfs model depiction surface temps
Quoting 360. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




My little world is between the two storms in centex, sunny but not for long.
Quoting 333. MAweatherboy1:

Not sure I quite buy this... it might as well be doing this though.




You can tell it's fake just by the way it's jutting down in a straight line.
4.31" here in Longwood and over 9" confirmed in Vero Beach just south of Melbourne. Folks flooding is just very bad please stay home if you can across E C FL as some areas got drilled. Looks like a Tropical Storm came thru with all the standing water.

Over 6" south of Apopka per a storm spotter according to Channel 9.
Quoting 338. GeoffreyWPB:

Treasure Coast International Airport...




Looks like some of my landings in Kerbal Space Program. :P
Folks stay off the roads if you can on the northside of Orlando as flooding is extensive. Many lanes on I-4 are flooded near Maitland.

Quoting 331. Hurricane1216:

Satellite image of the big Gulf rain blob as the sun begins to go down.


So far staying north of us. Southerly flow keeping it humid here...
Quoting 365. Xyrus2000:



Looks like some of my landings in Kerbal Space Program. :P


Looks like a microburst.
Quoting 368. redwagon:



Looks like a microburst.


Tornado was confirmed there and it damaged over 20 homes in that area. It was video taped and sent in to news 13 earlier.
Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 541 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 540 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 536 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 534 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 515 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 505 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 605 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 451 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 451 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 445 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 427 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 424 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 420 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 350 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 349 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 430 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 425 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 257 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016
People, I swear Invest 91B aka "Bob the First" in the Bay of Bengal could open its eye soon, if it doesn't get sheared too much, because the last frames are pretty worrying when it comes to it. I'm waiting for the first visible picture after sunrise there, it's coming up soon.

98B



SYDNEY'S RECORD MOST CONSECUTIVE T > 12 C NIGHTS: The record most consecutive days in which the daily minimum temperature in Sydney, Australia was warmer than 12 C of 230 such days was set this month. The record is expected to be extended. The previous record of 217 such days was set in 2005. 12 C is about 54 F.

Link
999Ai2016, there aren't any really low pressures there. The lowest pressures in India, 29.45"-29.50", are in the Ganges plain within the heat trough.
Quoting 375. BaltimoreBrian:

999Ai2016, there aren't any really low pressures there. The lowest pressures in India, 29.45"-29.50", are in the Ganges plain within the heat trough.

Well, it's true it's not digging its own pressure hole and it's still quite shallow, but I think now I can recognize a trop. cyclone when I see one :-p .
Plus, the JTWC gave it a medium probability to become a trop cyclone in the next 24h almost 12 hours ago now, and it gives me confidence in being a bit bullish about it.
(GFS is not too bullish about it, and sends it as a relatively weak storm into northern Myanmar, but I've seen it screw up before. Someone said before in this thread the spatial resolution of trop storms is too small for most models to resolve wind speed/field correctly, seems correct to me, because sometimes some pretty intense cyclones show up with a lot less impressive avatar on GFS runs.)
Anyways, maybe it's actually crashing into the Indian Coast and will be a dead beast by tomorrow, who knows, I think it's also a possibility but I wouldn't bet on it. What I'm betting on since last year is my own beginner's luck to correctly predict/announce cyclone formation/intensification :-)
Another TWave coming off Africa?
Evening...

Over 80 predictions on my list now
Please keep them coming

I may have missed some on this blog, you know what to do
Less than 2 weeks left!
Quoting 377. HurricaneFan:

Another TWave coming off Africa?

That would be the first.
Hi all, I rarely ever post but I've been a lurker of Wunderground since Hurricane Katrina. I was up in Oklahoma last Monday storm chasing and saw 3 tornados, the Katie-Wynnewood, Sulphur, and Wapanucka one. I did not see the anti-cyclonic one. Here's my video of the Sulphur EF-3 mile wide wedge as it passed about a quarter mile away from me North of Sulphur on 177. Only way I can really describe it was intense and frightening. I can't imagine what being that close to an EF-5 must be like. I hope I'm embedding the video correctly, I've never done this before. If it doesn't work I've included the link

Link to the video








Vorticity values have increased to 200 near the storm's center, shear is still low, and the upper level winds look more healthy now. I'll be waiting for a more qualified input to be sure, but it looks like a powerful cyclone in the making to me.

(Edit : Indian Met. Dept forecast it to become a tropical cyclone later actually, from a new bulletin just out :
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM IN DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.)
... Is a "cyclonic storm" the same as a tropical cyclone?
Radar imagery of BOB01 in the Bay of Bengal from Chennai. According to the JTWC, it's designated as an invest, but I'm fairly certain they'll change their assessment shortly.

Vero Beach now nearing 10" for the day. All Time record for that reporting station.

Rain has thankfully stopped here but the damage has been done as flooding is all over the place here nothing major just overflowing ditches and lakes.

Vero Beach now over 30" for the year.
some rain, some drizzle, 2 gusts of wind that twirled the trees around .. and it's gone..
Quoting 378. MaxWeather:

Evening...

Over 80 predictions on my list now
Please keep them coming

I may have missed some on this blog, you know what to do
Less than 2 weeks left!


I'm new here, what do I do?
WTIO21 PGTW 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 81.3E TO 15.6N 82.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
81.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 172010Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICT PERSISTENT, DEEPENING CONVECTION
NEAR AND AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE BROAD
CIRCULATION EXHIBITS THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION BUT
IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE BUT DECREASING. PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF
BENGAL WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE
NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON RECENT CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182300Z.//
NNNN

Quoting 387. Astrometeor:



I'm new here, what do I do?

I'm not worried about you
ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 160517180000
2016051718
11.6 81.3
15.6 82.8
110
11.9 81.4
172300
1605172251
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO21 PGTW 172300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 87.8E TO 16.3N 87.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 87.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 062000Z.
//
9114110412 121N 882E 25
9114110418 123N 881E 25
9114110500 126N 879E 25
9114110506 128N 878E 25
9114110512 131N 877E 25
9114110518 136N 874E 30
NNNN

T.C.F.A
91B/XX/XX
Quoting 393. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.A

Obviously... We've got a beast around now. Riding the coast is a risky game for a cyclone, but this one looks like it's enjoying it. I can't believe how fast the structure has improved in the last hours. And apparently, nothing to weaken it before long (barred an onshore excursion ; not very probable according to models).
The stuff moving into Centex is cloud-to-cloud. Lighting us up! Lovely to watch 3ft from the open door...for when it goes cloud-to-ground. Fireflies are in symphony!
0:00 AM UTC

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION BOB01-2016
5:30 AM IST May 18 2016
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved nearly northwards in past six hours
and now lays centered near 13.0N 80.8E, about 90 km east of Chennai and about 70 km from the coast. The system is likely to move north northeastwards and intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm in during next 48 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection lies over north Tamil Nadu adjoining Palk Strait, Gulf of Mannar, southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 18.0N and west of 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -93C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25-35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the depression. The estimated central pressure is 998 hPa.

Additional Information
===================
The sea surface temperature is 30-31C, ocean thermal energy is about 100-120 kj/cm2, low level convergence is (5-10)x10-5 second-1, upper level divergence is about (30-40)x10-5second-1, the low level relative vorticity is about 150-200, vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate (10-20 knots). Upper tropospheric ridge lies along 19.0N. The Madden-Julian Oscillation lies in phase-3 with amplitude >1 and is favorable for intensification of the system.
Quoting 396. HadesGodWyvern:

0:00 AM UTC

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION BOB01-2016
5:30 AM IST May 18 2016
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved nearly northwards in past six hours
and now lays centered near 13.0N 80.8E, about 90 km east of Chennai and about 70 km from the coast. The system is likely to move north northeastwards and intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm in during next 48 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection lies over north Tamil Nadu adjoining Palk Strait, Gulf of Mannar, southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 18.0N and west of 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -93C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25-35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the depression. The estimated central pressure is 998 hPa.

Additional Information
===================
The sea surface temperature is 30-31C, ocean thermal energy is about 100-120 kj/cm2, low level convergence is (5-10)x10-5 second-1, upper level divergence is about (30-40)x10-5second-1, the low level relative vorticity is about 150-200, vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate (10-20 knots). Upper tropospheric ridge lies along 19.0N. The Madden-Julian Oscillation lies in phase-3 with amplitude >1 and is favorable for intensification of the system.

If this is a depression with a Dvorak of T1.5, then I'm a 90ft pink dinosaur wearing a tutu.

Hint: I'm not.

Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics for anyone that's up this late. I discussed the blob that just moved across Florida and also the possibility of a subtropical cyclone offshore of the Carolinas next week...
Well,,,
Just looked up average rainfall for my area east of Naples, Fl, and it seems we did it in two days.
Yesterday we picked up about 1.7", and today, really this evening, we received another 3".
We have 2 weeks to go, so, we just need another 7" to beat the record in May here in Naples!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 1057 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS THROUGH 1 AM WHERE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS 9 TO 11 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TODAY.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...SEBASTIAN AND VERO BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
Quoting 379. Gearsts:

That would be the first.


Seems like my lecture the other day didn't really help him. :P


Looks to be getting a boost from the Gulf Stream and warm water over the Little Bahama Bank. S FL and NW Bahamas likely to get a couple inches of rain this morning ....

Still hot and humid here....
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB01-2016
8:30 AM IST May 18 2016
===============================
Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts (Yellow message)

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved north northeastwards at a speed of 10 km/h during past six hours, intensified into a deep depression and now lays centered over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near 13.3N 81.0E, about 170 km south southeast of Nellore.

The system is likely to move north northeastwards along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. Thereafter it is likely to move northeastwards along and off northern Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts during subsequent 48 hours.

Forecast and intensity
===================
9 HRS 14.4N 81.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS 14.9N 81.9E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 17.2N 83.7E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 19.7N 87.7E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Weird.
Sri Lanka: hundreds of families missing after landslide buries three villages
The nation's worst torrential rains for six years have forced tens of thousands from their homes
The Guardian, Amantha Perera in Colombo and agencies, Wednesday 18 May 2016 09.06 BST

Unusual heat bakes Sri Lanka's chicken industry
by Amantha Perera | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Wednesday, 18 May 2016 07:48 GMT

Eastern Australia basks in unusually warm autumn temperatures
Sydney experiences highs of 28C when average temperature for May is 19.5C, with warmer weather set to continue for at least a week in many parts of country
The Guardian, Elle Hunt, Wednesday 18 May 2016 04.13 BST

Have a good day, folks; greetings from Germany with currently quite coolish weather.
Quoting 406. barbamz:

Sri Lanka: hundreds of families missing after landslide buries three villages
The nation's worst torrential rains for six years have forced tens of thousands from their homes
The Guardian, Amantha Perera in Colombo and agencies, Wednesday 18 May 2016 09.06 BST

Unusual heat bakes Sri Lanka's chicken industry
by Amantha Perera | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Wednesday, 18 May 2016 07:48 GMT

Eastern Australia basks in unusually warm autumn temperatures
Sydney experiences highs of 28C when average temperature for May is 19.5C, with warmer weather set to continue for at least a week in many parts of country
The Guardian, Elle Hunt, Wednesday 18 May 2016 04.13 BST

Have a good day, folks; greetings from Germany with currently quite coolish weather.

"Have a good day" ? I guess it's irony ; with such news, it's off to a bad start, but we'll try our best ;-), thanks anyway ! Greetings from southeastern France, perfect weather here this morning, but we're expecting some showers starting this afternoon. Sky's already filling with cumulus clouds, maybe there will be some thunder later on the mountainside. Atlantic's low starting to mess things up in UK/France. Not expecting anything serious, though.
Western Europe is still relatively spared in the current climate (recent UK floods and continental heatwaves excluded), compared to the freak storms some people in the Americas and other continents regularly experience. That's why I like to follow tropical events, it's really fascinating for us in Europe. Well, I've experienced hurricane-force winds once in 1999 (cat 1-2 equivalent) on the French Atlantic coast, and I almost got hit by thunder more than once since, but it's nothing compared to the severe thunderstorms accompanied by tornados and windbursts frequently raging across the central/southern U.S.
A month ago, while hiking with friends, we were caught unprepared by a thunderstorm, and two lightnings hit less than 200 meters from us : I could even see one of them striking behind the trees, I mean it was quite close... I was really scared; being just under a cliff, inside a forest, I believe it is certainly one of the worst possible place to be when caught by surprise by a thunderstorm. Of course, as soon as we heard thunder we started to climb down, but it was already too late. Fortunately, things ended up well for us.
Same thing, also in a similar landscape happened to me around 3 years ago. Many more lightning strikes came along the storm, but no strike hit as close as last time.
Each time I turned off my cellphone, and I put any metal objects as far as I can from my skin, because the burns can be nasty, on your wrist for example if you happen to be wearing a metal watch at the time you get hit. It's incredible how consequences can vary from one person to the next, regarding lightning strikes. Some people die, some escape unhurt, some get mental disorders afterwards, and some get deep burns... Anything is possible, really.
- Been posting too much in the last hours, I'll try to keep quiet for a while ;-)
Quoting 400. StormTrackerScott:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 1057 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS THROUGH 1 AM WHERE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS 9 TO 11 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TODAY.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...SEBASTIAN AND VERO BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.


Yeah. The rainfall was amazing- It reminded me of Fay. We had to evacuate the small buildings around the hospital around 4pm as it was flooding the area. What a wild beginning to the rainy season.
`euro=little s.w carib. mischief


Looks like Grand Bahama is getting the worst of it right now .... calm and overcast in Nassau atm.... doesn't look like Miami etc got a lot of rain,
Quoting 410. islander101010:

`euro=little s.w carib. mischief
I'm still amazed at how the moisture just evaporated east of the Yucatan... no wonder our friends in Cayman are complaining. The TX heat dome has moved to the WCar....
Did Pakistan register 54 C or even 55 today? Would be the new record for the country.

Edit - According to their met office, Larnaca at 51 C is the max for today.
414. elioe
01B/BOB-01 is one of those Indian Ocean cyclones with huge disagreements. JTWC has it at 40 kt. RSMC New Delhi has it at 25 kt (though they haven't issued a bulletin for almost 12 hours). Univ. of Wisconsin has begun its ADT, giving 45-50 kt.


Still a lot of energy with this system....

Those comparing Indian advisories with U.S. ones should remember that IMD uses 3-minute averages, not 1-minute ...
euro 240 it will be interesting which way the euro has the low pressure move. latin america could use the downpour.
417. MahFL
Yesterday I got 0.9in of rain from the blob.
Sort of what I have been saying for a while. Nothing happening here until the winds and upper level environment change dramatically. Can any weather experts explain why we can't even sustain our standard daytime heating storms? At least they give part of the island a bit of rain.
Quoting 412. BahaHurican:

Good Morning; the Conus forecast and current look:  the Florida Blob from yesterday is now tormenting the Bahamas.


And after the Bahamas, the ex-blob is going to thread the needle between the Outer Banks and Bermuda along both the gulf and jet stream....................................... :)



Quoting 414. elioe:

01B/BOB-01 is one of those Indian Ocean cyclones with huge disagreements. JTWC has it at 40 kt. RSMC New Delhi has it at 25 kt (though they haven't issued a bulletin for almost 12 hours). Univ. of Wisconsin has begun its ADT, giving 45-50 kt.


Deep Depression stage from IMD is 30 knots. Sometime you have to visit the national warning link on the RSMC page for the current storm update. (1130 AM IST or 6:00 AM UTC is the current bulletin from them)
Quoting 397. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If this is a depression with a Dvorak of T1.5, then I'm a 90ft pink dinosaur wearing a tutu.

Hint: I'm not.


Although, the thought that you might be paints a pretty picture . . .



Quoting 407. Gearsts:


Euro shows us hitting the upper 80's to low 90's by the end of May and that pattern has supported storm formation to our south in the past.That's how Beryl formed back in 2012 and Alex in 2010.Its a classic set up.
Audit Finds 'Hostile Probes,' Breaches of Weather Satellite System


"The nation's weather satellite program over the course of a year suffered 10 data security incidents, including unauthorized access and probes by adversaries, according to a congressional auditor.... NOAA has experienced several recent information security incidents regarding unauthorized access to Web servers and computers," Powner said in the audit, released Tuesday. The six episodes now considered closed matters "involved hostile probes, improper usage, unauthorized access, password sharing, and other IT-related security concerns."

Link to GAO pdf Document

LOL, I am not judging the light damage of the anti-cyclonic tornado in OK. That barn looks just like the college hangout during my glory days. "Tin roof, busted" B52s. What memories.

RE: Figure 1. An example of the relatively light damage inflicted by the anticyclonic tornado near Roff, OK, on May 9, 2016. Photo credit: Courtesy Gabriel Garfield, OU/CIMMS/NWS.
Our little blob held together quite well.



Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Only 13% of Atlantic basin hurricanes have impacted the US as hurricanes since 2006 - a record 10-yr low percentage.

The NOAA hurricane Forecast will be coming out May 27th.
Thats a blobette I figure.

U.S. top court rejects Exxon appeal in groundwater contamination case

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected Exxon Mobil Corp's (XOM.N) appeal of a $236 million judgment against the oil company in a case brought by the state of New Hampshire over groundwater contamination linked to a gasoline additive.

The justices left in place the New Hampshire Supreme Court's 2015 ruling upholding the judgment by a jury that in 2013 spurned Exxon's claims that the contamination linked to its fuel additive was not its fault but rather the fault of the local gas stations and storage facilities that spilled it.

Sometimes the big guys lose. You know, if I were a local gas station owner, I'd be thinking about switching affiliations . . . .
Quoting 427. Grothar:

Our little blob held together quite well.






I guess the Florida dry season is over, right Gro?
Quoting 431. rmbjoe1954:



I guess the Florida dry season is over, right Gro?


It sure seems that way. We have now had 3 very vigorous Seabreeze Collisions over the last month. Very unusual to see that occur so early. Yesterday was something here on the NW side of Orlando with all the lightning and training storm cells. 3" to 6" fell in my area.
Fort McMurray wildfire - satellite estimates of current perimeter and hotspots from the previous 24 hours. Courtesy of GeoGratis. As well as some recent, relevant information.




'The second disaster': Impractical donations burden Fort McMurray relief work

Otherwise, your heart may be in the right place, but if you really want to help - donate money. And understand that some of that money will go to support long-term efforts/overhead so they can respond to future emergencies.

The Fort McMurray Fire Has Grown 40 Percent in Two Days

Fort McMurray fire sweeps east through northern oilsands sites

No Relief From Canadian Wildfires Expected Wednesday
Some vorticity associated with our Florida blob. Lower shear environment too. Thank god this isn't August.
435. Ed22
The 2016 Hurricane will start on June 1, 2016, this year is gearing up to be very active with about 15 to 20 tropical cyclones forming... 5 to 9 of those becoming hurricanes, 1 to 4 major Hurricanes (Cat 3 to 5), 1 to 4 becoming minimal to moderate Hurricanes (Cat 1 or 2)... The rest; intense tropical storms, however January gave us Hurricane named Alex so we are to a interesting start to 2016...
Quoting 397. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If this is a depression with a Dvorak of T1.5, then I'm a 90ft pink dinosaur wearing a tutu.

Hint: I'm not.




went me get my pink tutu. on and i join you and we can dance
Quoting 431. rmbjoe1954:



I guess the Florida dry season is over, right Gro?


I hope so, Joe. It has been exceptionally dry on the SE coast.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 433. daddyjames:

Fort McMurray wildfire - satellite estimates of current perimeter and hotspots from the previous 24 hours. Courtesy of GeoGratis. As well as some recent, relevant information.




'The second disaster': Impractical donations burden Fort McMurray relief work

Otherwise, your heart may be in the right place, but if you really want to help - donate money. And understand that some of that money will go to support long-term efforts/overhead so they can respond to future emergencies.

The Fort McMurray Fire Has Grown 40 Percent in Two Days

Fort McMurray fire sweeps east through northern oilsands sites

No Relief From Canadian Wildfires Expected Wednesday

No I will not donate to the tarsands. Which is the only reason there is a city there in the first place.
Burn.