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An Exceptionally Slow-Starting Typhoon Season; 95L Fizzles

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2016

Residents of the Northwest Pacific have enjoyed an unusually late start to the typhoon season this year, despite the fact that ocean temperatures have been running about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Though there has already been one tropical depression, the basin has yet to see a named storm. Typically, 90% of all Northwest Pacific seasons see their first named storm by May 1 (thanks to Mike Fiorino for this stat.) Four named storms, two typhoons, and one intense typhoon typically occur by June 24; last year, we'd already had three Category 5 typhoons by mid-June!


Figure 1. One of 2015's early-season Category 5 typhoons: Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at 2118Z (5:18 pm EDT) on March 31, 2015. Image credit: Terry Virts/NASA/ISS

This year is only the sixth time since 1950 that the first tropical storm of the Northwest Pacific season has occurred after June 1:

1998: July 8 start date
1973: July 1 start date
1983: June 25 start date
2016: June 24 and counting…
1952: June 10 start date
1984: June 9 start date

The four years with the latest start dates—including 2016—all occurred during the transition from strong El Niño conditions to neutral or La Niña conditions later in the year.  The upper-level atmospheric circulation associated with this transition bring conditions which discourage tropical cyclones--sinking air, surface high pressure, and dry conditions--to the typhoon breeding grounds of the Northwest Pacific. Surface pressures over the past month in the waters east of the Philippines extending to the Date Line have been 0.5 - 1.5 mb above average over the past two months (Figure 1). The Friday morning Tropical Weather Discussion for the Northwest Pacific from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center highlighted just one area of low concern, and the GFS and European models showed nothing developing for at least the next five days.


Figure 2. Surface pressures between May 1 - June 22, 2016, in the waters of the Northwest Pacific east of the Philippines (extending to the Date Line) have been 0.5 - 1.5 mb above average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

A slow start usually a harbinger of a quiet typhoon season
This year's slow start to typhoon season is likely a harbinger of a season that will be much below-average in activity. Slow-starting typhoon seasons like 1998, 1973, and 1983 all had total activity that was much below average: the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in those years were 152, 220, and 147--well below the average ACE from the past 51 years of 298. The May 7 forecast for the 2016 Northwest Pacific typhoon season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) called for a below-active season with 22 named storms, 13 Category 1 or stronger typhoons, 6 major Category 3 or stronger typhoons, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 217. The long-term averages for the past 51 years are 26 named storms, 16 typhoons, 9 major typhoons, and an ACE of 298. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts--13% to 30% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology.

Quiet start to year in Northeast Pacific as well
The hurricane season hasn’t exactly been hopping on the eastern side of the Pacific either. We have seen only one named storm anywhere east of the International Date Line in 2016: Hurricane Pali, which hit Category 2 strength in mid-January. Pali was the earliest named storm and earliest hurricane on record in the Central or Eastern Pacific (reliable satellite-based records only go back to 1971). One could argue it was an “overflow” storm from the extremely busy 2015 season rather than a true kickoff to the 2016 season.

Despite the slow start to their core tropical season, it’s still possible that the Central and Eastern Pacific will catch up later in the year. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly above average across most of the region south and southwest of Mexico where Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones tend to develop.  The forecast for the 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 6 by Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This is close to the average numbers (east of 140°W) from 1981 - 2010, which were 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Similarly, in its outlook issued May 27, NOAA predicted that a near-average season would be the most likely outcome in the Eastern Pacific, with a 70% chance of 13-20 named storms, 6-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. The 2015 Northeast Pacific hurricane season (east of 140°W) featured 18 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 9 major hurricanes.

The transition from El Niño to La Niña may have a larger effect on the Central than the Northeast Pacific. About half as many named storms form in the Central Pacific between 120°W and 180°W in a La Niña year, compared to an El Niño year. Hawaii is about three times less likely to be impacted by a tropical cyclone in a La Niña vs. an El Niño year, according to Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University].


Figure 3. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by year for all tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere from January 16 to June 23. Image credit: Phil Klotzbach.

Northern Hemisphere: off to an extremely slow start
This year’s quietude across the Pacific has led to an exceptionally low amount of accumulated cyclone energy in the Northern Hemisphere for the year to date. The contrast with 2015 couldn’t be starker: as pointed out by Phil Klotzbach, the Northern Hemisphere ACE from January 16 to June 23 was the highest on record in 2015 and the lowest on record in 2016. The low ACE is primarily due to the delayed start of the Northwest Pacific season; that basin accounts for nearly two-thirds of Northern Hemisphere ACE up to this point in a typical year, compared to about 2% coming from the Atlantic. The North Atlantic is at a record-setting pace for named storms, with four already observed to date. However, Tropical Storms Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle were all short-lived systems with peak sustained winds of 50 mph or less. January’s off-season Hurricane Alex produced more ACE than these three storms combined.

Phil Klotzbach’s excellent new website for real-time tropical cyclone statistics has a "Basin Archives" button with historical statistics for those wanting more information.


Figure 4. Latest satellite image of Invest 95L over the Gulf of Mexico.

95L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico a low threat to develop
A tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico (Invest 95L) has grown less organized since Thursday, and no longer appears to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops late Friday morning showed 95L had only a limited amount heavy thunderstorms, which were poorly organized and had no signs of rotation. The Air Force hurricane hunter mission scheduled for Friday was cancelled. 95L is expected to move ashore over Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Saturday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. The next name on the Atlantic list of named storms is Earl, but don't expect it to get used for 95L.

None of our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis are showing anything developing in the Atlantic through at least June 29.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It's my anime avatars, isn't it? I've gotta stop nerding out. -_-
Quoting 501. KoritheMan:

It's my anime avatars, isn't it? I've gotta stop nerding out. -_-


It does give you a more youthful appearance, but that's not bad. I watch, and absolutely love Teen Titans (with my little one), think it is absolutely hilarious.
Quoting 502. daddyjames:



It does give you a more youthful appearance, but that's not bad. I watch, and absolutely love Teen Titans (with my little one), think it is absolutely hilarious.


Good, because I have no intention of presenting myself as geriatric, even when I'm actually there. I won't take it as an insult. :P

Also, the stereotype that only young people watch anime needs to die. Here's to still being an otaku when I'm 50.
kori - you have a good one, I am bailing out as well.
RSMC Tokyo has it strengthening into a tropical storm after crossing Luzon.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
15:00 PM JST June 26 2016
=========================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.8N 123.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and intensity
==================
24 HRS: 16.8N 120.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Quoting 505. HadesGodWyvern:

RSMC Tokyo has it strengthening into a tropical storm after crossing Luzon.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
15:00 PM JST June 26 2016
=========================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.8N 123.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and intensity
==================
24 HRS: 16.8N 120.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea


Looks like it will.


Starry, starry night. paint your palette blue and grey . . .
TropicalAnalystwx13 - are you maybe Force 13 on YT?
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1450 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are not conducive
for development and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely during
the next several days while the low moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Another one bites the dust. This is so laughable. XD
much needed rain trying to move in from the n.e. radar shows it well. hopefully those group of clouds dont break up. e cen fl.
JTWC - Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 26/0000Z - Link
97W xx/xx/xx

" (...) DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270000Z."
Good Morning Everyone,

I rarely post anymore but Im still keeping up with the tropics off the blog..The Euro ensembles barely show anything in the next 15 days but even I know that can change very quickly..I have seen posts from bloggers over the number of years say models aren't showing anything in the next 5 days and the very next model run has a storm. If you don't have Patience and call yourself watching the tropics then its just isn't going to be enjoyable..

Have fun..enjoy your day as "Winter is coming" tonight..



Nothing for the next 5 days in our side of the tropics , in the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean.=(=(=(
Quoting 514. birdsrock2016:

Nothing for the next 5 days in our side of the tropics , in the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean.=(=(=(
Probably a month or so before we see anything at all.
Quoting 510. islander101010:

much needed rain trying to move in from the n.e. radar shows it well. hopefully those group of clouds dont break up. e cen fl.
yea, watchin the radar for NE Fl and prayin to the rain Gods that this line doesn't break up...It was sooooo hot here yesterday. 98 in the shade; 118 in the sun
Looks like some tropical moisture will be moving into Florida from that tail end of that trough.
Quoting 517. MeteorologistTV:

Looks like some tropical moisture will be moving into Florida from that tail end of that trough.



We'll need to keep a eye on for sub tropical development off the coast has wind shear is low
Quoting 518. Tazmanian:




We'll need to keep a eye on for sub tropical development off the coast has wind shear is low


Taz, do you think the NHC will start watching it soon?
Last 7 days seems to indicate a hint of a positive tri-pole developing across the Central Atlantic versus the negative tri-pole that we have grown so accustom to. This might help to boost the MDR SST anomalies...






Quoting 519. birdsrock2016:



Taz, do you think the NHC will start watching it soon?



How do I no your asking me stuff I really don't no


You are really acting like jvff Has you are saying stuff and quoteing people and asking ?s people really don't no that what Jvff dos and your acting this like him

Your getting closer and closer too my ignore list because the way you act you are acting this like jvff
Quoting 486. plantmoretrees:

Perfect day out on Bellingham bay. The sun is finally back! NW Washington has been oddly average recently, meaning cold n wet, nice to finally get out from under the grey blanket.





I'll take average in Summer anytime. I'm personally loving the temps in the low 70s with sun. As long as we stay below 80 I'm happy. Heading out to the Big Four Mountain Ice Caves this morning once it warms up a bit. Actually, plantmoretrees I've sent you a WU mail.
thunderstorms just offshore New Smyrna Beach got a Nws warning . the horizon has darkened to the n.e. rain approaching. e cen fl.
Quoting 521. Tazmanian:




How do I no your asking me stuff I really don't no


You are really acting like jvff Has you are saying stuff and quoteing people and asking ?s people really don't no that what Jvff dos and your acting this like him

Your getting closer and closer too my ignore list because the way you act you are acting this like jvff


Sorry, Taz, I don't want to be like JFV . I will make sure not to ask you ?'s you don't know about. I will also make sure to do my research before I ask anybody a question.I don't want to follow down the dark path of JFV.
Quoting 524. birdsrock2016:



Sorry, Taz, I don't want to be like JFV . I will make sure not to ask you ?'s you don't know about. I will also make sure to do my research before I ask anybody a question.I don't want to follow down the dark path of JFV.



Sounds good too me. You deserve other chance
The area off of FLorida might dissipate though because it is getting closer to land. In fact, some of the t'storms have already made it to the East Central Florida coast if you look on radar. This could go poof before forming into anything.
Quoting 468. Stormwatch247:

If La Nina does not appear till later in the Atlantic hurricane season, there is a fairly good chance the U.S. will be hit by a hurricane. A landfall in Florida ... same area as T.S.  Colin or Tampa.  Also Savannah, GA. and up the Atlantic seaboard and TX.


Happy Sunday everyone!

Well, that certainly narrows down the possibilities, doesn't it? :)

While the season may be active, I really don't think South Florida will be hit directly this year! Perhaps it is an old wives' tale, however, there does seem to be a correlation between precipitation that falls in May versus the chance of a direct landfall in the area. The drier the May, the more likely the landfall! If we look at the numbers, there seems to be some support. These numbers are Miami totals. Keep in mind that the average May rainfall for Miami is 5.70 inches...

May 1992: .056 inches
May 2004: 2.46 inches
May 2005: 7.38 inches

(Figures here are from climatespy.com)

Ok, so 2005 seems to be off. However, the rainfall for May 2005 was not that much above average! Also consider that the K storm made landfall in Ft. Lauderdale affected the area for only a short time before taking her very unexpected and quick turn to the SW, sparing the area. Rita, unlike what a previous blogger mentioned, never impacted the mainland, and Wilma's landfall was on the Southwest coast. Now consider this year's numbers. While I could not find the exact monthly rainfall total for the month of May, according to NOAA, Miami's dry season was one of (if not the) wettest since records have been kept, as the region received more than 15 inches above the normal average for the season. This leads me to side with no South Florida landfall this year. However, if this La Niña does continue to develop and maintain a presence next season, the I'd say South Florida's luck could end. Perhaps this is just very wishful thinking, but if it is, then it is wishful thinking supported with evidence!
its just one big hot tub in the N.W caribbean

We need some rain!
Quoting 529. gulfbreeze:

We need some rain!


Yep, Therr should be some coming to Fort Myers today, thanks to the EAstern Sea Breeze. Unfortunately, West Boca Raton , FL (my whereabouts) has not seen rain in almost 1.5 weeks.
Remember folks it doesn't take a lot of hurricanes to get the "1" it only takes 1. So many ppl on here is so ready for hurricanes, be patient little grass hopper your time will come. I haven't never in my life seen ppl who get so upset because the models isn't showing anything ATM, it will start showing soon I can promise you that. I want my storms as bad as you but let's sit back and enjoy the model watching until we see something pop up
Those who root for calamity have never seen, smelled nor tasted it....been my experience.

Quoting 527. ProphetessofDoom:



Happy Sunday everyone!

Well, that certainly narrows down the possibilities, doesn't it? :)

While the season may be active, I really don't think South Florida will be hit directly this year! Perhaps it is an old wives' tale, however, there does seem to be a correlation between precipitation that falls in May versus the chance of a direct landfall in the area. The drier the May, the more likely the landfall! If we look at the numbers, there seems to be some support. These numbers are Miami totals. Keep in mind that the average May rainfall for Miami is 5.70 inches...

May 1992: .056 inches
May 2004: 2.46 inches
May 2005: 7.38 inches

(Figures here are from climatespy.com)

Ok, so 2005 seems to be off. However, the rainfall for May 2005 was not that much above average! Also consider that the K storm made landfall in Ft. Lauderdale affected the area for only a short time before taking her very unexpected and quick turn to the SW, sparing the area. Rita, unlike what a previous blogger mentioned, never impacted the mainland, and Wilma's landfall was on the Southwest coast. Now consider this year's numbers. While I could not find the exact monthly rainfall total for the month of May, according to NOAA, Miami's dry season was one of (if not the) wettest since records have been kept, as the region received more than 15 inches above the normal average for the season. This leads me to side with no South Florida landfall this year. However, if this La Niña does continue to develop and maintain a presence next season, the I'd say South Florida's luck could end. Perhaps this is just very wishful thinking, but if it is, then it is wishful thinking supported with evidence!
I think South Florida will be hit by multipole storms, but when I don't know. This could be one of the years we get one, maybe more, but only time will tell. The way the high is setting up, with low shear predicted, and very warm waters around Florida and the Southeast, and vertical instability on the rise, this could be the year.
Now. Watch my wings closely next month.
Quoting 530. birdsrock2016:



Yep, Therr should be some coming to Fort Myers today, thanks to the EAstern Sea Breeze. Unfortunately, West Boca Raton , FL (my whereabouts) has not seen rain in almost 1.5 weeks.


On the coast in the panhandle soil is mostly sand and want hold moisture. It's also very hot. May be we will pop some T/S !
Quoting 527. ProphetessofDoom:



Happy Sunday everyone!

Well, that certainly narrows down the possibilities, doesn't it? :)

While the season may be active, I really don't think South Florida will be hit directly this year! Perhaps it is an old wives' tale, however, there does seem to be a correlation between precipitation that falls in May versus the chance of a direct landfall in the area. The drier the May, the more likely the landfall! If we look at the numbers, there seems to be some support. These numbers are Miami totals. Keep in mind that the average May rainfall for Miami is 5.70 inches...

May 1992: .056 inches
May 2004: 2.46 inches
May 2005: 7.38 inches

(Figures here are from climatespy.com)

Ok, so 2005 seems to be off. However, the rainfall for May 2005 was not that much above average! Also consider that the K storm made landfall in Ft. Lauderdale affected the area for only a short time before taking her very unexpected and quick turn to the SW, sparing the area. Rita, unlike what a previous blogger mentioned, never impacted the mainland, and Wilma's landfall was on the Southwest coast. Now consider this year's numbers. While I could not find the exact monthly rainfall total for the month of May, according to NOAA, Miami's dry season was one of (if not the) wettest since records have been kept, as the region received more than 15 inches above the normal average for the season. This leads me to side with no South Florida landfall this year. However, if this La Nia does continue to develop and maintain a presence next season, the I'd say South Florida's luck could end. Perhaps this is just very wishful thinking, but if it is, then it is wishful thinking supported with evidence!
If I'm reading this correctly, 2004 had about half the average rainfall, yet that was the year of 4 Florida hurricane landfalls. This would seem to contradict your hypothesis. It is an interesting idea, and one that Birdsrock has repeatedly suggested as well. Out of curiosity, why did you select just the data from those 3 particular years?

Let me just back up a minute, I realize those 3 years had land falling hurricanes in Florida, My question is, was the rainfall above average the for the other years that weren't shown?
Quoting 516. Loduck:

yea, watchin the radar for NE Fl and prayin to the rain Gods that this line doesn't break up...It was sooooo hot here yesterday. 98 in the shade; 118 in the sun
the rain Gods do not favor me this day (so far) barely a sprinkle and near 100% humidity. The few drops we had two hours ago are still sitting on the windshield :/
A low level circulation looks to be developing under convection north of Panama at around 11.5N: 81W
The rain coming at East Central FL has been mostly evaporating on impact so far. Orlando got some rain from the outflow boundary. It has become mostly cloudy in Melbourne, temp dropped to 92.7ºF.

540. MahFL
By June 30 the Gulf and Caribbean MJO will be neutral. After that it just gets better for storm formation for at least 12 days.


541. MahFL
Quoting 509. KoritheMan:

Another one bites the dust. This is so laughable. XD


Why is it so laughable, do you expect the tropics to form Cat5's every day ? The state of storm formation will be what ever the current conditions support.
Quoting 535. gulfbreeze:


On the coast in the panhandle soil is mostly sand and want hold moisture. It's also very hot. May be we will pop some T/S !

When it gets dry it doesn't hold much heat either so the sparsly vegetated flat topography also gets frosty in fall, winter and early spring ( soil moisture though is often abundant in winter)

Hot as Hell in summer. Hell freezes over in winter. There you have it. (although in fairness most continental midlatitude climates are a LOT harsher)
Quoting 536. Llamaluvr:

If I'm reading this correctly, 2004 had about half the average rainfall, yet that was the year of 4 Florida hurricane landfalls. This would seem to contradict your hypothesis. It is an interesting idea, and one that Birdsrock has repeatedly suggested as well. Out of curiosity, why did you select just the data from those 3 particular years?

Let me just back up a minute, I realize those 3 years had land falling hurricanes in Florida, My question is, was the rainfall above average the for the other years that weren't shown?


Sorry for being unclear. I believe that the drier the May, the more likely it is that the Southern Florida peninsula experiences a direct landfall. Conversely, the wetter the May! The less likely it is to get a direct landfall. With that being the case, that leaves 2005 as an outlier, as the region experienced slightly above-average rainfall that May. However, as I mentioned, the storms experienced were somewhat abnormal. For the fun of it, I also checked the rainfall amounts for 1998 and 1999, the seasons in which Georges and Irene hit the region. Both of those seasons also had drier than average Mays, with respective totals of 2.90 and 4.59 inches of rainfall. While there were a couple of other Mays that were drier than normal with no land falling storms, the majority of Mays during the 1990s and the early parts of this current century had above-average rainfalls. I limited my dataset to the 1990s and 2000s, as there really weren't many hurricane landfalls in South Florida during the 80s. Again, this is only an opinion, and one that may very well be wrong. But there is at least some evidence that supports it. I do believe there may be some studies that have been done on the relationship, but I am lucky to even have the time to post right now!
There is a problem at the Tropical Tidbits site so the GFS and ECMWF plots will not be up for now.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 2m2 minutes ago

http://tropicaltidbits.com seems to be suffering a disk failure. This will mean no plots besides CMC/HRRR/WRF until I figure this out.

0.62 inches have fallen. The rain gods are happy with us in Boca Raton, FL. Our 1.5 weeks without rain has ended.
Quoting 545. birdsrock2016:

0.62 inches have fallen. The rain gods are happy with us in Boca Raton, FL. Our 1.5 weeks without rain has ended.


And the rain continues to fall...
Quoting 538. TheDawnAwakening:

A low level circulation looks to be developing under convection north of Panama at around 11.5N: 81W

Is this the wave that was originally monitored for Atlantic development, but is now expected to enter the Pacific instead?
Quoting 442. daddyjames:



I hear that Hell for Breakfast is pretty tasty.



Eggs in Hell Recipe by Mario Batali
My cardiologist told me to stay away from people like you!
Storms started developing early this morning. Paducah's forecast discussion makes me think coverage'll be good.

Quoting 541. MahFL:



Why is it so laughable, do you expect the tropics to form Cat5's every day ? The state of storm formation will be what ever the current conditions support.


He is saying it is laughable because it is June 26th and the East Pacific has yet to have a named storm. There have been several occasions where the NHC has given a system a good chance to develop and it has failed.

As said earlier, if a storm does not form by next Friday, it will be the latest start to an EPAC season ever.
there has been a few yrs that break the trends where Florida gets hit during a wet yr
552. beell
After BREXIT, a small sampling from around the internecks:











The GFS will likely end up correct regarding the formation of a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean over the next 3 days. But as beell pointed out the other day, the disturbance was never going to reach the NW Caribbean and Gulf with no impetus to lift it there. Note that there's a ridge forecast over Florida, which should shunt the system west into Nicaragua. What we needed for the earlier GFS forecasts to verify was a potent trough that would have caused the disturbance to move northward.

554. Ed22
Quoting 553. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS will likely end up correct regarding the formation of a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean over the next 3 days. But as beell pointed out the other day, the disturbance was never going to reach the NW Caribbean and Gulf with no impetus to lift it there. Note that there's a ridge forecast over Florida, which should shunt the system west into Nicaragua. What we needed for the earlier GFS forecasts to verify was a potent trough that would have caused the disturbance to move northward.


let see what happens with this tropical disturbance...
Quoting 544. Tropicsweatherpr:

There is a problem at the Tropical Tidbits site so the GFS and ECMWF plots will not be up for now.

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago

http://tropicaltidbits.com seems to be suffering a disk failure. This will mean no plots besides CMC/HRRR/WRF until I figure this out.




A note at the top of site.

The primary Tropical Tidbits server just experienced a disk failure. It will take hours for me to get the disk replaced and software reinstalled. This affects all model output except for the CMC, RGEM, HRRR, and WRF models. Thank you for your patience.
556. Ed22
Quoting 553. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS will likely end up correct regarding the formation of a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean over the next 3 days. But as beell pointed out the other day, the disturbance was never going to reach the NW Caribbean and Gulf with no impetus to lift it there. Note that there's a ridge forecast over Florida, which should shunt the system west into Nicaragua. What we needed for the earlier GFS forecasts to verify was a potent trough that would have caused the disturbance to move northward.


We could have Earl then...
Quoting 556. Ed22:

We could have Earl then...

I highly doubt it...but we will have to watch and see
Quoting 549. 62901IL:

Storms started developing early this morning. Paducah's forecast discussion makes me think coverage'll be good.




We had a surprise pop-up storm early this morning, .33 inch in the gauge. Now it's partly cloudy. With all the heat, 90s yesterday, we're grateful for the clouds.

Let the Games begin. Lot of humidity today, Currently 47-53% DP around 63, not good for water cooling.
The disturbance on the GFS has always been there it was just that the energy was getting pushed into central America to soon.Call me a wish caster in this case but seeing the blog yesterday night we need something to track.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 559. PedleyCA:


Let the Games begin. Lot of humidity today, Currently 47-53% DP around 63, not good for water cooling.


LOL, Ped. Do you feel like what it is to live in Florida now?
Quoting 552. beell:

After BREXIT, a small sampling from around the internecks:

Only problem - Switzerland isn't a member of the EU.

Quoting 562. birdsrock2016:



LOL, Ped. Do you feel like what it is to live in Florida now?


Nope, it is under 45% now and falling. Will ride it out and see what happens. I have AC for backup.
We're sitting right on a heat index of 100 degrees at 1:40 pm. (dewpoint 71 degrees).

Quoting 560. washingtonian115:

The disturbance on the GFS has always been there it was just that the energy was getting pushed into central America to soon.Call me a wish caster in this case but seeing the blog yesterday night we need something to track.


The blog was broken for me last night. I got home late and once I got to it was about 1am GMT, site took ages to actually load and not show error, and when I managed to get in here, it said last comment was from like 8:30pm. I thought well, now that's A blog hole. Then when I came on earlier today before heading out, saw where everything after 8:30pm was going and thought, oh, right, maybe was a good thing then LOL

Here is back to normal thankfully. In the 60's or such and a bit rainy but the random thunderstorms are gone. All good being we have major political storms now, can only deal with one kind at a time I think LOL :P

As for tropics, I think it's going to be an interesting year just because it is setting up much different than the last few. Doesn't mean I think CONUS will be hit directly or hard, but an increased threat being the conditions are looking to be much more favorable, at least compared to the last few. Hopefully no direct hits though, or at least if they do, not be severe ones -_-
567. Tcwx2
I believe that's a permanent feature that is there almost the entire tropical season isn't it? However, I believe that it can spawn and help some storms, such as Wilma. Correct me if I'm wrong please.
Quoting 538. TheDawnAwakening:

A low level circulation looks to be developing under convection north of Panama at around 11.5N: 81W
568. Tcwx2
Exactly what I thought it was. I think we bloggers got just a little spoiled after we got out to a record start. That being said, I do believe that we are in for an interesting year. Looking forward to the August-September-October time-frame!
Quoting 560. washingtonian115:

The disturbance on the GFS has always been there it was just that the energy was getting pushed into central America to soon.Call me a wish caster in this case but seeing the blog yesterday night we need something to track.
569. Tcwx2
Will someone send me another link to the GFS Model since Tropical Tidbits isn't working? Thanks in advance.
Quoting 568. Tcwx2:

Exactly what I thought it was. I think we bloggers got just a little spoiled after we got out to a record start. That being said, I do believe that we are in for an interesting year. Looking forward to the August-September-October time-frame!
Nothing going on hurricane wise the whole globe also tornado are way below normal very quiet season may be on the way again.
Quoting 553. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS will likely end up correct regarding the formation of a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean over the next 3 days. But as beell pointed out the other day, the disturbance was never going to reach the NW Caribbean and Gulf with no impetus to lift it there. Note that there's a ridge forecast over Florida, which should shunt the system west into Nicaragua. What we needed for the earlier GFS forecasts to verify was a potent trough that would have caused the disturbance to move northward.


Not sure if it might develop before hitting Nicaragua but it might be a good candidate in becoming Agatha in the Epac.
572. beell
Quoting 563. kestrel68:


Only problem - Switzerland isn't a member of the EU.




Correct. It was included on the relative strength of the pun.
Deduct one "plus"!
:)
Quoting 532. Patrap:

Those who root for calamity have never seen, smelled nor tasted it....been my experience.


Very quiet hurricane and tornado seasons the last 2 years may continue nothing going on in tropics may get another great season of weather.
Quoting 565. Sfloridacat5:

We're sitting right on a heat index of 100 degrees at 1:40 pm. (dewpoint 71 degrees).




Yeah, I feel you. HI in Boca Raton, FL at 102 degrees with temps actually at 90 degrees.
Heat index at 105 in Boca Raton, FL, but they are not issuing heat advisories. I don't know why, but that's crazy. Our HI is almost as hot as the temperature in SoCal right now.
Quoting 570. help4u:

Nothing going on hurricane wise the whole globe also tornado are way below normal very quiet season may be on the way again.
Why are you so convinced the Atlantic will be quiet this year?
577. Tcwx2
I'd have to dissagree, way too early to tell. You could be right but I highly doubt it.
Quoting 570. help4u:

Nothing going on hurricane wise the whole globe also tornado are way below normal very quiet season may be on the way again.


We're not even into August yet, how can u say that?

Quoting 570. help4u:

Nothing going on hurricane wise the whole globe also tornado are way below normal very quiet season may be on the way again.
Hmm... An invest in the Arabian Sea now. 93A, screenshot (Eumetsat MPE) ; things are heating up in the Indian O. :
Quoting 575. birdsrock2016:

Heat index at 105 in Boca Raton, FL, but they are not issuing heat advisories. I don't know why, but that's crazy. Our HI is almost as hot as the temperature in SoCal right now.



what ever happen too N CAL and CAL and far N CA where all part of the same state lol and are high could be around 100 too 110 the next few days
Quoting 579. 999Ai2016:

Hmm... An invest in the Arabian Sea now. Screenshot (Eumetsat MPE) :



Will it go for Yemen again, or will it turn towards PAkistan(country north of the invest).
582. MahFL
Quoting 550. Hurricanes101:



He is saying it is laughable because it is June 26th and the East Pacific has yet to have a named storm.


As I said earlier, storms will form when the conditions are suitable. It's not a case of something being laughable, that usually indicates some kind of failure. Mother Nature does not fail, Mother Nature has been doing what she wants a long time before we mere humans evolved.
Quoting 508. PolishHurrMaster:

TropicalAnalystwx13 - are you maybe Force 13 on YT?


No he isn't

But I'm a member for the Force 13 community though
Also Force 13 isn't just YouTube video in a way I think it's quite similar to WeatherUnderground and run buy slightly younger people Force 13 has a website and blogs and has been on TV and radio

Hey but TA13 should join Force 13 too IMO
Quoting 580. Tazmanian:




what ever happen too N CAL and CAL and far N CA where all part of the same state lol and are high could be around 100 too 110 the next few days


But, there is not as much humidity in California as in florida, keep that in mind though. The humidity really plays a role in amplifying the "real-feel" temps and that's why we have heat indexes up to 105 today . Highest heat index i've seen in South Florida is 130 degrees.
585. vis0
OPPs wrong blog it s to go to my blogs apology to MODs.
sorry, MODs.
Quoting 576. HurricaneFan:

Why are you so convinced the Atlantic will be quiet this year?


Nutcase that all lol
He might be Scotts twin

This year won't be quiet and I mean also look at it so far it's been far from quiet

People just don't get that active season have quiet periods like what we have now too
Quoting 586. wunderkidcayman:



Nutcase that all lol
He might be Scotts twin

This year won't be quiet and I mean also look at it so far it's been far from quiet

People just don't get that active season have quiet periods like what we have now too


I still think that we'll have in excess of 20 named storms this year.
Quoting 581. birdsrock2016:



Will it go for Yemen again, or will it turn towards PAkistan(country north of the invest).

Don't know... The GFS doesn't make anything spinningful out of it yet, but three TCFP highlighted areas in the Indian O. seems fair, after all it comes rather early in the season :
"The North Indian Ocean cyclone season has no official bounds, but cyclones tend to form between April and December, with the peak from May to November." From Wikipedia.
Quoting 582. MahFL:



As I said earlier, storms will form when the conditions are suitable. It's not a case of something being laughable, that usually indicates some kind of failure. Mother Nature does not fail, Mother Nature has been doing what she wants a long time before we mere humans evolved.


Not really sure why you are taking this angle as a response. I mean Kori made the comment that it is laughable that the East Pac has yet to have a storm after numerous, promising looking systems have failed to develop. Even in 2005, we had 3 named storms at this point in the EPAC.

I just think you took his comment way out of context and made a bigger deal out of it than it should be.

590. beell
Quoting 571. allancalderini:

Not sure if it might develop before hitting Nicaragua but it might be a good candidate in becoming Agatha in the Epac.


Maybe so!


06/26 12Z GFS 700 mb relative humidity @ 60 hrs


06/26 12Z GFS 700 mb relative humidity @ 171 hrs

Continuity in the model with this blob of mid-level moisture.
Link
Quoting 583. wunderkidcayman:



No he isn't

But I'm a member for the Force 13 community though
Also Force 13 isn't just YouTube video in a way I think it's quite similar to WeatherUnderground and run buy slightly younger people Force 13 has a website and blogs and has been on TV and radio

Hey but TA13 should join Force 13 too IMO


That's scary. ;) (j/k wkc)
Quoting 507. daddyjames:



Starry, starry night. paint your palette blue and grey . . .


Quoting 583. wunderkidcayman:



No he isn't

But I'm a member for the Force 13 community though
Also Force 13 isn't just YouTube video in a way I think it's quite similar to WeatherUnderground and run buy slightly younger people Force 13 has a website and blogs and has been on TV and radio

Hey but TA13 should join Force 13 too IMO
Force 13 is a YouTube channel that had past hurricane season tracks, hypothetical hurricane season tracks, and tropical updates, all based in England.
Quoting 591. Astrometeor:



That's scary. ;) (j/k wkc)


Umm why

Quoting 578. birdsrock2016:



We're not even into August yet, how can u say that?



His invisible friend in the sky told him so.
A warm one in my neck of the woods in Soo Cal


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sun, 26 Jun 12:19 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Sun, 26 Jun 12:10 pm
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
26 Jun 12:10 pm 96 41 15 SSE 7G14 OK
Quoting 593. HurricaneAndre:

Force 13 is a YouTube channel that had past hurricane season tracks, hypothetical hurricane season tracks, and tropical updates, all based in England.


Lol nope

Force 13 has a YouTube channel but also has website and blogs also has a live Skype chatrooms
The headquarters is in England but has an international member base

More so that Force 13 has opened up its own divisions for different areas around the world
For example
Force 13 UK
Force 13 Australia
Force 13 USA
Force 13 Aisa
Force 13 Caribbean
Quoting 597. wunderkidcayman:



Lol nope

Force 13 has a YouTube channel but also has website and blogs also has a live Skype chatrooms
The headquarters is in England but has an international member base

More so that Force 13 has opened up its own divisions for different areas around the world
For example
Force 13 UK
Force 13 Australia
Force 13 USA
Force 13 Aisa
Force 13 Caribbean
Well I darned.
Quoting 597. wunderkidcayman:

Lol nope

Force 13 has a YouTube channel but also has website and blogs also has a live Skype chatrooms
The headquarters is in England but has an international member base

More so that Force 13 has opened up its own divisions for different areas around the world
For example
Force 13 UK
Force 13 Australia
Force 13 USA
Force 13 Aisa
Force 13 Caribbean

I really liked their Australian team's live coverage of several typhoons last year, with the mesmerizing sat loops in HQ, and the Unpredictable stepping in... One of the hosts suddenly had to go offline (during Melor I think) ; evacuation orders were being given in his neighborhood because a bushfire was approaching. A thrilling moment for sure. Fortunately I think everyone made it to safety (not in the Phillipines though...).
Quoting 596. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A warm one in my neck of the woods in Soo Cal


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sun, 26 Jun 12:19 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Sun, 26 Jun 12:10 pm
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
26 Jun 12:10 pm 96 41 15 SSE 7G14 OK

what is the url for this place?
601. beell
Quoting 592. Astrometeor:



I understood that reference.
Quoting 559. PedleyCA:


Let the Games begin. Lot of humidity today, Currently 47-53% DP around 63, not good for water cooling.


96degrees and 41%RH down here......A/C is on
Quoting 600. PedleyCA:


what is the url for this place?


Link
Looks like there might be a low trying to develop off South Carolina.
24 dead in West Virginia flooding,and 90% of the comments seem to be wishcasting for tropical storms. Sad.
(off-topic links removed)
Quoting 605. PaulSweet:

24 dead in West Virginia flooding,and 90% of the comments seem to be wishcasting for tropical storms. Sad.


There are blogs on here that are focused on severe weather and events going on around the country.

To come onto a blog that is focused on tropical weather and comment towards us because we are talking about tropical weather is well....sad.
Quoting 602. HurricaneHunterJoe:



96degrees and 41%RH down here......A/C is on


I have 92.2F and 34% RH and still on the Aqua. Need the RH to drop a bit more....
Quoting 605. PaulSweet:

24 dead in West Virginia flooding,and 90% of the comments seem to be wishcasting for tropical storms. Sad.
Because that is what most come here for during the summer months.Yes the situation in West Virginia is horrific but to put people down for having a hobby where nothing is in their control (it is all up to nature) is pretty childish.
Quoting 589. Hurricanes101:


Not really sure why you are taking this angle as a response. I mean Kori made the comment that it is laughable that the East Pac has yet to have a storm after numerous, promising looking systems have failed to develop. Even in 2005, we had 3 named storms at this point in the EPAC.

I just think you took his comment way out of context and made a bigger deal out of it than it should be.

As is often the case; the nature of aforementioned blogger is often argumentative and smarter-than-thou.

Unfortunately, my ignore list does not work so I have to bite my tongue and tolerate it's posts as best I can.
Quoting 573. help4u:

Very quiet hurricane and tornado seasons the last 2 years may continue nothing going on in tropics may get another great season of weather.

Our average first storm doesn't even form until late July to early August and we've had four so far and Even if we do have a slow season (which I doubt will happen) it only takes one to make it a bad season.
Quoting 611. aquak9:
I remember when they tried to school me on where the MDR was..and I already pointed it out in a earlier post.....
Quoting 601. beell:



I understood that as well. Both references?

Stop putting pictures in my posts, beell. :P
615. beell

ULL that tracked in tandem to the west of 95L a couple days ago-now over west central Texas.
616. beell
Quoting 614. Astrometeor:



I understood that as well. Both references?

Stop putting pictures in my posts, beell. :P


i can't help it. the image tools on this site do exactly what i instruct them to do...and of course, i always do my best proof-reading/editing after "Post Comment".
Oops one of the quote from the JTWC in my previous comment about Invest 93A was a bit old : Here's some fresh news, issued pretty much now (probability changed from LOW to HIGH) :
WTIO21 PGTW 262030 - SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 66.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.4E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. (...) DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND EVIDENCE OF RAPID ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 272030Z. Link
618. beell
Quoting 614. Astrometeor:



I understood that as well. Both references?

Stop putting pictures in my posts, beell. :P


Only because you have a Mom that is well schooled in the Arts & Astronomy!
:P
Quoting 612. MrTornadochase:


Our average first storm doesn't even form until late July to early August and we've had four so far and Even if we do have a slow season (which I doubt will happen) it only takes one to make it a bad season.
Wonder what the blog would be like if we had a 1992 hurricane season repeat?

"Nothing to see this season folks."
"Season is a bust."
"Another dud season."
"I went hurricane shopping for nothing."
"Hey guys do you know which stores have the best winter apparel?"

Then of course August 24th would come along................
Rainier and slightly cooler pattern for this coming week in ILM.

No US to pull for, hopping on the Belgian bandwagon. Rode duivles voor het europees kampioenschap.
Wow got a temp ban for nothing I don't know why
Anyway
Quoting 599. 999Ai2016:


I really liked their Australian team's live coverage of several typhoons last year, with the mesmerizing sat loops in HQ, and the Unpredictable stepping in... One of the hosts suddenly had to go offline (during Melor I think) ; evacuation orders were being given in his neighborhood because a bushfire was approaching. A thrilling moment for sure. Fortunately I think everyone made it to safety (not in the Phillipines though...).


Yes David and Jason are great
Actually Jason is a WU member too he runs one of the wx obs station
*
Quoting 619. Tornado6042008X:

Wonder what the blog would be like if we had a 1992 hurricane season repeat?

"Nothing to see this season folks."
"Season is a bust."
"Another dud season."
"I went hurricane shopping for nothing."
"Hey guys do you know which stores have the best winter apparel?"

Then of course August 24th would come along................


Every year I watch this Youtube series. It was a very scary time for all of south Florida...

Quoting 623. GeoffreyWPB:



Every year I watch this Youtube series. It was a very scary time for all of south Florida...





Before I speak to any group about Hurricane prep and having a plan...I show this video.


Guerra family Aug 29th 2005
Oh, this blog sometimes:

"Another bust season! It's June 26th and we're only on Danielle"
Quoting 605. PaulSweet:

24 dead in West Virginia flooding,and 90% of the comments seem to be wishcasting for tropical storms. Sad.
This is how it is during the summer months. Especially when it gets closer to a more active peroid. I live in a hurricane prone area and usually don't lurk on the blog until this time of year. I find it very informative at times. However, it is very sad about the flooding in Va. Though. Because I'm a news follower as well I also keep up with other events around the world .
Quoting 625. CybrTeddy:

Oh, this blog sometimes:

"Another bust season! It's June 26th and we're only on Danielle"


What makes me laugh even harder at that statement is that Danielle was the earliest fourth named storm on record and people are calling this a bust season
Woohoo 2 invests have a high probability of becoming TCs in the next 24 hours now (as per the JTWC 0000GMT), one in the Arabian Sea, the other in the South China Sea. Looks like the break is over, next round's coming.
Hurricane season is a bust in the E PAC !
Quoting 630. Tazmanian:

Hurricane season is a bust in the E PAC !


Although that invest in the GOM we had earlier could have a chance to become Agatha once it crosses over. Models are hinting at some possible development.
Quoting 628. MrTornadochase:


What makes me laugh even harder at that statement is that Danielle was the earliest fourth named storm on record and people are calling this a bust season
We've already had a hurricane too.I guess some people won't be satisfied enough until we have Emily's and Dennis's roaming the basin in July in order to be convinced that we could have a active season.While I don't exepct anything on the level of Dennis or Emily I think we could see a storm like Dolly form in July with the MJO and CCKW maybe even a weak spin up in the MDR.


IMD mean sea level pressure shows a cyclone, but meteorologists has yet to mention anything developing in the Arabian Sea.
The IMD gives nil odds of tropical cyclone development in the Arabian Sea over the next 72 hours. Nil my ass. This is a well-organized and intensifying tropical storm.

Quoting 631. birdsrock2016:



Although that invest in the GOM we had earlier could have a chance to become Agatha once it crosses over. Models are hinting at some possible development.


how ever if 95L got named it would still be the same name storm after the cross over the NHC no longer give new name too storms after it cross over so if 95L got the name Earl it would have stayed Earl after the cross over it would not have got in the name Agatha after the cross over the only way it would have got in a new name if the old low that 95L went poof

It looks that way, 634. TropicalAnalystwx13. 1900 GMT / 2300 GMT - Eumetsat MPE :
Quoting 633. HadesGodWyvern:



IMD mean sea level pressure shows a cyclone, but meteorologists has yet to mention anything developing in the Arabian Sea.


Do Arabian Sea cyclones have names?
Non tropical low pressure center shows signs of organization, but is not tropical in nature south of Nova Scotia, Canada.
MId level low reaches back towards New England within the next 72 hours, I wonder if it can develop into a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 623. GeoffreyWPB:



Every year I watch this Youtube series. It was a very scary time for all of south Florida...




Cantore in the day! TWC in the day! Sigh! I used to just liiive for the tropical reports.

I wonder though watching this, how, if at all, it would have been different with their forecasting, if the models were as they are now? Would it have made a difference? Would they have tended toward landfall where it did? Maybe it's been gone over before when I wasn't reading the blog thoroughly cause of work or such, so sorry if it's total retread.
Quoting 637. 62901IL:



Do Arabian Sea cyclones have names?


They receive North Indian Ocean names, but similar to the WPAC each region names them slightly different.

Quoting 640. mitthbevnuruodo:



Cantore in the day! TWC in the day! Sigh! I used to just liiive for the tropical reports.

I wonder though watching this, how, if at all, it would have been different with their forecasting, if the models were as they are now? Would it have made a difference? Would they have tended toward landfall where it did? Maybe it's been gone over before when I wasn't reading the blog thoroughly cause of work or such, so sorry if it's total retread.


The spaghetti plot madness would just have started sooner.
Quoting 641. win1gamegiantsplease:



The spaghetti plot madness would just have started sooner.


Hahahaha! There IS that :P
Quoting 637. 62901IL:



Do Arabian Sea cyclones have names?


Link

The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea uses this naming list. They are currently on Column SIX, fourth name. Also all these names are instantly retired when used. List has been active since 2000.
So the name for this one. if it is named will be Roanu. Correction: Kyant...
Made almost all the way through the day w/o using the AC, but the humidity
wouldn't keep pace with the rise in temp and I finally gave in at 95.4 (81 inside)
So the name for this one is it is named will be Roanu


Kyant
lol this is funny

Link
You just never know. Strong thunderstorm through here a little while ago on a 20% chance. Blew out a storm door pane when I went out the door to move a couple plants to better shelter. Fun though. Nice storm.

Here's a photo of the WSW sky before the storm arrived. Missed by a hair catching huge c-g lightning bolt.


Quoting 624. Patrap:




Before I speak to any group about Hurricane prep and having a plan...I show this video.


Guerra family Aug 29th 2005
Greetings Pat...Andrew was a killer, and left 200,000 homeless. The water vapor/ infra red shots shows how fast things can change with tropical cyclones.



Quoting 630. Tazmanian:

Hurricane season is a bust in the E PAC !
Lol. I know you're kidding around.

Just Nature balancing out after two hyperactive seasons. The cycle of things natural, I'd say.
Indeed hydrus.....

Preparation and a evac plan are the only hedge bet one can do!

This time afforded us all is another window to get DAT done as the season will still bare its teeth in due time.
651. IDTH

Quoting 651. IDTH:



Wonder what will happen.
Quoting 601. beell:


love starry night. used to play Don McLean's tribute on the piano.
Link Vincent
This Hurricane season shall be quite interesting come August hopefully no one gets burned by a beautiful monster.
Quoting 648. hydrus:

Greetings Pat...Andrew was a killer, and left 200,000 homeless. The water vapor/ infra red shots shows how fast things can change with tropical cyclones.






Favorite part of that radar pic is that I believe it is the last full frame the NHC was able to capture before the radar blew off the roof.
A tropical wave is moving over the SW Caribbean with axis from
15N76W into the EPAC near 04N78W, moving W at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at
700 mb and a moist environment from surface to 850 mb as shown by
CIRA LPW imagery. Despite this, no significant convection is
related to this wave as strong deep-layer wind shear prevails in
the area

imagine it will take a few days for that African system to make it to the Atlantic
The GFS was hinting at a major tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico but it is not anymore.Link Also I have a General Weather Discussion on my blog if you guys and gals want to check it out.
Quoting 657. Chicklit:


imagine it will take a few days for that African system to make it to the Atlantic


How are conditions in the East Atlantic? Would be interesting if we get an early Cape Verde-type 'cane, like Bertha 2008...
Quoting 656. Chicklit:

A tropical wave is moving over the SW Caribbean with axis from
15N76W into the EPAC near 04N78W, moving W at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at
700 mb and a moist environment from surface to 850 mb as shown by
CIRA LPW imagery. Despite this, no significant convection is
related to this wave as strong deep-layer wind shear prevails in
the area

thanks for the encouraging input, now that you killed our storm lol
Quoting 659. Articuno:



How are conditions in the East Atlantic? Would be interesting if we get an early Cape Verde-type 'cane, like Bertha 2008...






Wind shear is vary light


http://www.ted.com/talks/al_gore_the_case_for_optim ism_on_climate_change?utm_source=newsletter_weekly _2016-02-27&utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly&utm_med ium=email&utm_content=talk_of_the_week_image#t-141 9015

Al Gore has aTED talk he gave this winter on climate change. It is a worthwhile 17 minutes. The price of solar and the reduction of coal, at least in the U.S. Is very interesting. Please note: I understand that at this time Solar is NOT viable in the U.S. However, the second key component for solar is storage, and that is probably within 36 months of being viable (Sub 100 dollar per kilowatt hour with 10 year, 4000 cycle reliability, and 80 percent round trip efficiency.) However, it will be viable soon, and already is viable in many places outside of the U.S. For example Grenada generates its electricity from diesel fuel and has rates around 40 cents a kilowatt hour. At that price battery plus storage is a more economical alternative. (12 cents is typical in the U.S.)

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 659. Articuno:



How are conditions in the East Atlantic? Would be interesting if we get an early Cape Verde-type 'cane, like Bertha 2008...

I highly doubt that it will develop in the MDR due to current strong Sahran Air Layer, above average pressures, and only marginally warm sea surface temperatures. However, if the wave makes it to the Caribbean or Gulf intact sometime in July with the MJO in full force we may have to watch it. With the below average shear and warm waters, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a storm spin up in the Caribbean at some point in July. If a Caribbean storm does form, it will be the first named storm to develop in the Caribbean since Hanna in 2014 (which was a very weak storm).
I think a surface low is forming underneath the convection just north of Bermuda. It is still non tropical in nature as it is associated with a trough and frontal ZONE.
Little engagement and maybe even knowledge of Brexit and Climate Change/AGW from youth. Non college it seems to be true. Schooling not up to par on subjects and technology too good perhaps? Some irony there. I work again now in management where I work with majority 17-25 year olds. Most have no idea or informed opinion on either. The few that do opine: extreme jibberish of just....no. Those who know everything and really inside your just slowing shaking your head thinking omg please shut up. I drop the knowledge and am hoping it'll inspire them to at least look. But quite a few have 100% no idea about either.
Quoting 663. Qazulight:

http://www.ted.com/talks/al_gore_the_case_for_opti m ism_on_climate_change?utm_source=newsletter_weekly _2016-02-27&utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly& ;utm_med ium=email&utm_content=talk_of_the_week_image#t -141 9015

Al Gore has aTED talk he gave this winter on climate change. It is a worthwhile 17 minutes. The price of solar and the reduction of coal, at least in the U.S. Is very interesting. Please note: I understand that at this time Solar is NOT viable in the U.S. However, the second key component for solar is storage, and that is probably within 36 months of being viable (Sub 100 dollar per kilowatt hour with 10 year, 4000 cycle reliability, and 80 percent round trip efficiency.) However, it will be viable soon, and already is viable in many places outside of the U.S. For example Grenada generates its electricity from diesel fuel and has rates around 40 cents a kilowatt hour. At that price battery plus storage is a more economical alternative. (12 cents is typical in the U.S.)

Cheers
Qazulight


Thanks Qazulight! It was a good presentation, and demonstrated that with a little bit of focus and optimism, progress definitely can, and is, being made.
Quoting 666. DeepSeaRising:

Little engagement and maybe even knowledge of Brexit and Climate Change/AGW from youth. Non college it seems to be true. Schooling not up to par on subjects and technology too good perhaps? Some irony there. I work again now in management where I work with majority 17-25 year olds. Most have no idea or informed opinion on either. The few that do opine: extreme jibberish of just....no. Those who know everything and really inside your just slowing shaking your head thinking omg please shut up. I drop the knowledge and am hoping it'll inspire them to at least look. But quite a few have 100% no idea about either.


Of course this had to be post #666.

Another awesome summer day in Alaska. Never got higher than 70F - 60F at the moment.
India Meteorological Department statement on 02A

A low pressure area has formed in northeast Arabian Sea & neighborhood.

It is likely to move westwards and become well marked low pressure area and further concentrate into a depression by tomorrow.
670. MahFL
Atlantic opens for business on July 1st :)

Morning all. Looks like we're due for a bit of a lull... at least until the weekend...
Quite stable across the basin this morning....
Quoting 631. birdsrock2016:



Although that invest in the GOM we had earlier could have a chance to become Agatha once it crosses over. Models are hinting at some possible development.
A Sign that the Atlantic seasoon will be busy?
interesting system at 21n 60w some convection acc/ with it.
Good Morning; the Atlantic Tropics are quiet and the Conus forecast. Even though the tornado alley season, as opposed to the further North recently, was relatively quiet this year in May, the fires in California/SW and the tragic flooding in West Virginia this month made up for it in terms of lost lives and property damage.

Hopefully, the folks in West Virginia trying to put their lives back together will not have much rain this week.

Quoting 668. Dakster:



Of course this had to be post #666.

Another awesome summer day in Alaska. Never got higher than 70F - 60F at the moment.



I know right lol first time I had ever posted on that number. Kinda freakish.
Fitting. Shows the darling little sheep have learned to sheep very well.
And here is the tropical activity across the globe with the storm in the Arabian Sea:



Dutch little hail storm damages becoming known... Crisis meeting insurers/agrarian unions/govt.
For the village of Someren solely estimated damages past half a billion euros/$ 600M .
And counting. I'll surmise between a G and a G and a half.
A very, very, very undutch thing to happen. No worries, we will have repeats of these things that never happened in our history soon enough (you know, this year, or maybe next).

Faster & faster, harder & harder.
Quoting 674. weathermanwannabe:




There seem to be three systems that could precipitate into at least a TS before July: the one east of Carolinas, one east of Rep. Domenica and another east of Venezuela.
Interesting. A record PDO this Spring could yield a El-Nino type set up this Winter across the US with a active Southern jet.

This PDO could spur El-Nino to re-emerge in early 2017.

O2A in the Arabian Sea ; precips around the low look less intense than 12 h ago at the moment, and so far there's little trace of precips under it's bands, but that could change fast, as the storm still exhibits a good symmetry overall. Even at this stage, a tropical storm/low can still do a lot of flash flood damage when they hit arid countries like Oman, easily becoming one-in-fifty-years events or more there in some towns just from a TS getting too close, which seems to me a possibility here - Eumetsat MPE (0626, 2300 GMT / O627, 1230 GMT) and Insat VIS (1230 GMT) :

From the IMD (0627, 0600 GMT based on 0300 GMT) - "PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) OVER ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 72 HOURS.
24 HOURS : NIL. / 24 - 48 HOURS : FAIR. / 48 - 72 HOURS : FAIR.
FAIR = 26 - 50%" Link
Quoting 680. StormTrackerScott:

Interesting. A record PDO this Spring could yield a El-Nino type set up this Winter across the US with a active Southern jet.

This PDO could spur El-Nino to re-emerge in early 2017.





give it up EL Nino is not coming back any time soon
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Pennsylvania, USA

MAJOR negative SOI burst with cold outbreak into Australia lurking( big high pressure) significant burst of westerlies retard La Nina again

Quoting 663. Qazulight:

http://www.ted.com/talks/al_gore_the_case_for_opti m ism_on_climate_change?utm_source=newsletter_weekly _2016-02-27&utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly& ;utm_med ium=email&utm_content=talk_of_the_week_image#t -141 9015

Al Gore has aTED talk he gave this winter on climate change. It is a worthwhile 17 minutes. The price of solar and the reduction of coal, at least in the U.S. Is very interesting. Please note: I understand that at this time Solar is NOT viable in the U.S. However, the second key component for solar is storage, and that is probably within 36 months of being viable (Sub 100 dollar per kilowatt hour with 10 year, 4000 cycle reliability, and 80 percent round trip efficiency.) However, it will be viable soon, and already is viable in many places outside of the U.S. For example Grenada generates its electricity from diesel fuel and has rates around 40 cents a kilowatt hour. At that price battery plus storage is a more economical alternative. (12 cents is typical in the U.S.)

Cheers
Qazulight

That's worth watching just for the line, "Watching the news is like a nature hike through the book of Revelations."

One of the better lines I've ever heard about anything. LOL
Quoting 670. MahFL:

Atlantic opens for business on July 1st :)




Yup and a MAJOR hit to La-Nina. This next hit could be the nail in the coughin to La-Nina.
Quoting 682. Tazmanian:




give it up EL Nino is not coming back any time soon


This is one hell of a PDO signature and its basically suffocating any chance for La-Nina to materialize. Don't get me wrong its trying but its meeting lots of resistance. Never has a La-Nina happened before with this strong of a PDO in place. Its as if La-Nina is essentially being blocked from occurring on all sides.

Quoting 686. StormTrackerScott:






stop showing maps that are 6 too 12 moths down the road that map means nothing too me
Even the cold tongue along the South American Coast is getting pinched off. Basically we are setting the stage for a very active Hurricane Season across the Caribbean and near the US as the MDR struggles with this type of Global Sea Surface set up.

Also this Winter could prove much more interesting for California than many on here think in terms of heavy rain potential along with heavy snows across the higher elevations.
Quoting 687. StormTrackerScott:

This is one hell of a PDO signature and its basically suffocating any chance for La-Nina to materialize. Don't get me wrong its trying but its meeting lots of resistance. Never has a La-Nina happened before this strong of a PDO.




Hi Scott-
So I guess this will open the US mainland for an unforgettable hurricane season with multiple impacts?
I now just read #689.
Quoting 690. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scott-
So I guess this will open the US mainland for an unforgettable hurricane season with multiple impacts?


In close development looks to be a major issue for the US this year. Very low shear compared to the last several years across the Caribbean.
Quoting 685. StormTrackerScott:



Yup and a MAJOR hit to La-Nina. This next hit could be the nail in the coughin to La-Nina.

Don't forget the MASSIVE cold pool that would have to dissapate before anything even close to EL Nio can take place
Quoting 689. StormTrackerScott:

Even the cold tongue along the South American Coast is getting pinched off. Basically we are setting the stage for a very active Hurricane Season across the Caribbean and near the US as the MDR struggles with this type of Global Sea Surface set up.

Also this Winter could prove much more interesting for California than many on here think in terms of heavy rain potential along with heavy snows across the higher elevations.



That part is true has in neutral year CA can be march better then in El Nio years Has some Times we can get vary strong winter time storms
If anyone has any faith in the CFS model, it shows the best month for significant storms in the Atlantic this year will be August. Below normal shear across the entire caribbean to eastern tropical atlantic and a huge plume of precipitation east of the islands. September, shear starts to pick up.
Quoting 671. BahaHurican:

Morning all. Looks like we're due for a bit of a lull... at least until the weekend...
Quite stable across the basin this morning....
Yes it is dead everywhere for tropical weather.
696. ariot
Saw this earlier via WXShift, apologies if repost.

On this date in 1957, Hurricane Audrey became the earliest major hurricane to make US landfall on record.
Quoting 655. win1gamegiantsplease:



Favorite part of that radar pic is that I believe it is the last full frame the NHC was able to capture before the radar blew off the roof.
yep..Not sure who constructed the Deering Estate, but that building withstood the cat 5 winds and a 16.5 foot storm surge...

well folks....the weekly ENSO values are out....the 3.4 region is now at -0.4. 1 point away from La Nina values. Now last December when I stated this exact scenario was possible. I was criticized, ridiculed even. In fact I almost teared up. LMAO.

Well may I say with all kindness, he who laughs last, laughs in your face. Enjoy your day boys and girls
Quoting 687. StormTrackerScott:
...It's as if La-Nina is essentially being blocked from occurring on all sides.
By what? Anthropogenic Global Warming? ;-)
The one thing that dissapointed me here in SOuth Florida with El-nino was that they predicted much below average winter temps for us , but we never got below 40 degrees. On typical years, we have at least one day with a freeze.

However, they were right about the rainfall and we got well above the average precipitation for the dry season.

Ouch little cloud towers overshooting close from the center, better-looking convection over Iran north of it, signs of intensification IMO (Insat - 1330 GMT)
Tropical Cyclone 02A (Two) forms in the Arabian Sea, tracking west toward Oman The Watchers - June 27.
Quoting 701. 999Ai2016:


Ouch little cloud towers overshooting close from the center, better-looking convection over Iran north of it, signs of intensification IMO (Insat - 1330 GMT)


That looks bbetter organized than all the storms we have had this year in the GOM , except for ALex.
Finally, the Upper Ridge is retrograding West and some welcome rain showers are occurring in S.E. Louisiana.
Quoting 696. ariot:

Saw this earlier via WXShift, apologies if repost.

On this date in 1957, Hurricane Audrey became the earliest major hurricane to make US landfall on record.


Some of the personal accounts of Audrey were very tragic. People went to bed thinking they had time to evacuate in the morning. The storm intensified and picked up speed overnight and the awful truth came to bear on SW Louisiana.
this mornings low here was 69.5F


Humidity here is 73% and may not drop like yesterday, monsoonal stuff on tap.
Huge plunge in the SOI coming as 1034mb Arctic High moves into Australia. This will spur a WWB across the Pacific.

Quoting 662. BaltimoreBrian:

From Brexit to Climate, Little Engagement From Young People Discuss!


Interesting story. I'd suggest this isn't a new "problem". When we eventually reach a security status where electronic voting can be successfully implemented (decades?), I suspect the voter age demographics might change. I'm not as certain about the future of youth involvement. Many young adults do have passionate (if ill-informed) opinions (right or wrong).

-GS


It is interesting to see the models not let up on strong ridging over the west early this summer. I'm sure many hope this will evolve more favorably for CA in the fall as cool season storm tracks take over.



708. Tcwx2
No, no and well...NO!
Quoting 679. Uragani:



There seem to be three systems that could precipitate into at least a TS before July: the one east of Carolinas, one east of Rep. Domenica and another east of Venezuela.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 698. ricderr:

well folks....the weekly ENSO values are out....the 3.4 region is now at -0.4. 1 point away from La Nina values. Now last December when I stated this exact scenario was possible. I was criticized, ridiculed even. In fact I almost teared up. LMAO.

Well may I say with all kindness, he who laughs last, laughs in your face. Enjoy your day boys and girls
La nina is all a hoax I tell ya!