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An evening shift at NHC: A Shary situation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2010

We have a rare late October triple threat in the Atlantic this morning, three "Invests" with a decent chance of developing. The most serious threat is Invest 91L, a tropical wave centered near 7N 49W, about 950 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. 91L is moving west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern coast of South America and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Friday night. The system is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, but is too close to the Equator to spin up very rapidly. The storm will also have difficultly developing due to land interaction with South America this weekend. However, several models are indicating the possibility that 91L could develop into a tropical depression in the Central Caribbean by the middle of next week. NHC is giving 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday.

A low pressure system (Invest 90L) centered near 27N 42W in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad and elongated circulation. Heavy thunderstorms on its east side are generating tropical storm-force winds. However, the circulation of 90L has become increasingly stretched out this morning, and the storm is not as well organized as it was last night. NHC is giving 90L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm by Saturday.

Finally, a low pressure system (Invest 92L) centered 700 miles south-southeast of Bermuda is developing a surface circulation, and appears very close to tropical depression status. NHC is giving 92L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday. The only land area that might be affected by 92L is Bermuda.


Figure 1. A rare late-October triple threat in the Atlantic: three areas of disturbed weather listed by NHC as areas of interest (Invests) worth running forecast models on. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

A quiet Tuesday evening shift at NHC
Tuesday evening was a quiet shift at the National Hurricane Center, where I've spent the week as a participant in their visiting scientist program. Each week during hurricane season, NHC invites a hurricane researcher or forecaster in academia, government, or private industry to spend a week shadowing the NHC forecasters as they prepare their forecast products. The evening shift is chosen, since it is less of a zoo, and the presence of the visiting scientist will present less of a distraction to the forecasters.

There was only one area of interest (Invest 90L) on Tuesday. 90L was a disorganized low pressure system in the middle Atlantic that had gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system that was bringing dry air and disruptive wind shear. I worked with senior hurricane specialist Dan Brown, who cheerfully analyzed 90L with me, but confided that this storm was barely worth keeping as an Invest. He lowered its chances of development to 10%, but did order one more run of the various forecast models, so I could see how that was done. He also pointed out two other systems he thought might turn into "Invests" worth watching later in the week, and noted in particular that the large tropical wave approaching South America was unusually vigorous for this time of year, and might be something to be concerned about if it managed to avoid South America and penetrate into the southern Caribbean.

Since there wasn't much else to see on the hurricane end of their operation, I spent the rest of the evening working with NHC's marine forecasting branch. The National Hurricane Center is responsible for preparing weather analysis charts and marine forecasts for the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and I worked with meteorologist Felix Garcia of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB). He prepared the 8pm Tropical Weather Discussion, and the 00Z tropical analysis chart. I'm highly envious of the software tools NHC has to prepare forecasts and make analysis charts! I want an NAWIPS and ATCF workstation like these guys have, which allows one to zoom, pan, overlay, and quickly change speeds of animations. I'm proud to say that I am responsible for a portion of the 1016 mb isobar on the 00Z tropical Atlantic surface analysis map for Tuesday night, which I drew using the fantastic map drawing software at NHC.

Wednesday evening: A Shary situation
Wednesday evening was a bit more interesting. Invest 90L had been joined by Invest 91L and Invest 92L, and odds for development of 90L had been bumped up to 30%. I spent the first portion of the shift working with TAFB forecaster Wally Barnes, who made the intensity and position estimates of the three invests based on infrared satellite imagery. This task is accomplished using the Dvorak technique, a system of classifying cloud patterns of tropical cyclones based on how cold the cloud tops are, how much spiral banding is present, and other factors. Wally let me determine where the center of 90L was at 00Z last night, and enter the fix into the official database. I am now forever responsible for a tiny piece of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane data base--an awesome responsibility! (It's my first addition to the cause since I sent in my final Hurricane Hunter VORTEX report from the eye of Hurricane Hugo on September 15, 1989, complaining about hitting 5.7 G's of acceleration.) We classified 90L as a T2.0, which is respectable, and meant the system might be on its way to status as Tropical Storm Shary. Wally had to do the analysis for the large, ill-defined tropical wave (Invest 91L), since his eye was much more highly trained to pick out subtle motions in the satellite animations that indicated where the most likely center of circulation might be trying to develop.


Figure 2. "My boat is right here!" Forecaster Wally Barnes of NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch (TAFB) shows where he suspects the center of rotation of Invest 91L might be at 00Z on October 28, 2010.

Wally and I printed out the fix information we'd come up with for 90L, and took it over to Dan Brown, who was working the evening shift again over at the hurricane side of NHC.

"What, you're giving this a T2.0?" Dan good-naturedly hassled us, as we presented the fix info. "You're just trying to get something going for Jeff here so he can see some advisories get issued." Wally defended our analysis, pointing out how the heavy thunderstorms of 90L were pushing closer to the center of circulation, and how the cloud tops had gotten much colder. Dan agreed that 90L really was worthy of more attention, and commented that there was a good chance one of our three invests would probably develop into something NHC would have to issue advisories on before my final shift at NHC ended on Friday night. His prediction was that it would be 92L, the system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

An hour later, Dan wasn't so sure that 90L wouldn't beat 92L to the title of Tropical Storm Shary. The European ASCAT satellite had just sent in an image of the surface winds over 90L, and ASCAT was showing that the storm had a closed circulation and a respectable area of 40 mph tropical storm-force winds. He gave a call to James Franklin, the head of the hurricane specialist unit at NHC, who was at home. I listened in.

"Hey, I just got ASCAT," said Dan. "It's 35 knots. You can see the center, and the convection is about 130 miles to the northeast. I'm thinking of starting it as a tropical storm, but I hate to start it now, since the convection started at 21Z, and I'd like to see it persist. The ASCAT pass shows the circulation is a bit elongated, and the most recent microwave images are also showing that."

After discussing whether or not to initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Shary for a few more minutes, Dan hung up, then told me the scoop. "This is one of the most difficult parts of the job. It's a real judgment call whether or not to name a storm, when it's such a borderline situation like this. What we're going to do is issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook mentioning that 90L has gale-force winds, bump the probability of development up to 50 or 60%, watch it for a few more hours, then re-assess." Dan then proceeded to call his replacement, Eric Blake, who was due to work the night shift, to tell him to come in as planned, since it looked like there could well be a Tropical Storm Shary to deal with. Dan then proceeded to write the Special Tropical Weather Outlook and send it out.


Figure 3. "The one that got away was this big!" Wally Barnes tells hurricane specialist Dan Brown what he thinks of 90L's recent burst of heavy thunderstorm activity.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning from the National Hurricane Center on the latest from the tropics.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting ackee:
I think 91L will become T.S thomas before it reach the windard and cane in the central carrbean seem like models talking more southern track with pre thomas would cause it avoid shear does seem shear over all is decrease ahead of the system this such a large system could affect lot areas


ORGANIZATION IMPRESSIVE
1002. IKE
Oh, Sherrie, our love
Holds on, holds on
Oh, Sherrie, our love
Holds on, holds on




Shary/Sherrie...

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
lots of wind shear on the east coast here i see 70 knots wind shear wow 100 knots wind shear!!!!!


DONT SEE THAT PROBLEM FOR THOMAS
Quoting alfabob:


With an almost complete eyewall and two attached feeder bands. This going off of microwave imagery from a few hours ago, but it looks much more organized now.



an eyewall?? cmon man!!!
GFS puts a hurricane south of jamaica in a few days
Quoting Jeff9641:
I have a feeling that November will be very active and also have a feeling 91L may have a shot at FL if this ULL digs just off the TX coast instead of close to FL next week. Nogaps solution hints at this possibility.


91L won't go anywhere "near" FL, sorry.
Good morning! I see our 18th storm of the season formed overnight and we might have our 19th before October ends.
91L looks like it wants to be Tomas really bad
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good morning! I see our 18th storm of the season formed overnight and we might have our 19th before October ends.


If 91L becomes Tomas.. and seeing as I believe there will be 2 more named storms in November, there is a possibility we might see in December TS Alpha.
Developing Tropical Depression..
The heat continues: HAMweather shows that 16 record low or low maximum temps have been set or tied in the CONUS over the past 24 hours, while 248 record high or high minimums have been set/tied.

No real end in sight, either; in spite of the super duper monster mega storm of this past week, above average to far above average temps are forecast to hold sway across the CONUS for the next week.
Morning, everyone. I didn't get to look in last night, so what a surprise to see Shary there. And the one coming off Africa? Any ideas where that one will go?
Morning All,

I am becoming concerned that this might hit Haiti is some fashion. That would be terrible....

GFS - 06z


I sure don't want this to hit anyone, but those folks have NO protection from something like this.
1014. IKE
Quoting acyddrop:


91L won't go anywhere "near" FL, sorry.


You're correct, it won't...

6Z GFS @ 162 hours...200mb winds...it would get ripped apart....



500mb winds...

john hope rule is going down on this one hope thomas does not get cholera
1016. IKE
91L reminds me of IVAN , not feeling very good about this one
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
91L reminds me of IVAN , not feeling very good about this one
You just had to say it, eh ? Good morning.
1019. Grenada
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
91L reminds me of IVAN , not feeling very good about this one


Wish you hadn't said that...
mornih stomwatcherci, i was holding back but couldnt any more, very worried any thing that low in lat is a possible for us.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
morning stomwatcherci, i was holding back but couldnt any more, very worried any thing that low in lat is a possible for us.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
mornih stomwatcherci, i was holding back but couldnt any more, very worried any thing that low in lat is a possible for us.
I agree. When I see them so low I sit up and take notice. I fear since it is so low it will not feel the effects of whatever is supposed to turn it.
that is my very concern also
good morning guys, I have to say I think that 91L/PRE-TD-21/Tomas will move much more further W, than what a few of the models show and end up in the Western Caribbean, then make a strong turn to the east or ENE, inpacting Central Cuba and Central Bahamas.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
that is my very concern also
Dean was also low in latitude.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
91L reminds me of IVAN , not feeling very good about this one


Ivan oh man com on. not Ivan,Had to go there....
hey look everyone it's Ivan brother from a nother mother trying to follow in his path but maybe want it follow in his sister Paloma at the end of his life
Quoting Jeff9641:
91L reminds me of a W-Pac tropical system. Very large circulation.


and very far south... WPac storms often form around 6 north... one even formed at 2.1 north.
here we go

91L should become Tomas, then we'll just need the v and w storm,then.....
Link
check out track and Forcast verificatin, for IVAN.
Is the reason that storms in the Atlantic don't form as far south as they do in the Western Pacific have to do with the tilt of the Earth?
91L should be TD21 or Tomas later today when Recon goes out.

understand they are showing the world surf contest in puerto rico live on local puerto rican tv as well as world wide. heard there are some overhead sets out there this morning. sorry usa not you but it will be webcast could be a very wet period sun to tues.
the through that is expected to lift 91l out towards haiti and pr is weakening and also based on current track 91l will travel on the south of the trough and miss the pull north, jmo
1037. WxLogic
Good Morning...

This is not good at all... 91L keeps getting better organized. Puerto Rico and Hispanola could be in for some life threatning flooding. Specially in Hispanola if the GFS track comes to fruition. Definitely keeping an eye on it to warn family in both islands.

VORT is well established at 850MB and 500MB. I do believe we have a TD by 11AM ET if not a TS.

850MB:



500MB:



Upper level Anti-Cyclone:



1038. scott39
Goodmorning, 91L looks impressive this morning. Wind shear in the Eastern Caribbean looks unfavorable for the next 36-48 hours and then shifts to unfavorable in the W Caribbean in 72 hours. Im not saying Thomas wont develope, but maybe it will keep him from turning into a beast!
Are models showing anything else beyond this that may get us to the Greek Alphabet?
1040. ackee
I think NHC will up 91L chance to 70% or even 80 % this look like TS Tomas already
1041. scott39
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Are models showing anything else beyond this that may get us to the Greek Alphabet?
GFS shows a hint of some thing in the central GOM around Nov. 5th.
i have seen sytems more rageddey than 91L and still being called a TS simply because it is closer to CONUS NHC is so full of it it aint funny just like the weather channel only when a storm/hurricane threatens the CONUS do they givr more info and coverage, sorry for the rant but its true... 91L is a TS in my opinion.. period
ASCAT has a dead hit..
The center is lower and the circulation right along the coast but it's there..
1044. WxLogic

Looks to be TD already... may be bordering TS:


I definitely expect a bump to 90% to 100% by next TWO (8AM) with classification by 11AM ET.
Does anyone know where I can view text forecasts from model runs... I have seen it before just cant find it where it turns the GFS model run into a forecast?
1046. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:

Looks to be TD already... may be bordering TS:


I definitely expect a bump to 90% to 100% by next TWO (8AM) with classification by 11AM ET.
Does it look like it will have much land interaction?
I'd probably go out on a limb and say that 91L is already a TD or borderline TS.

1048. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
Does it look like it will have much land interaction?


Land interaction should be decreasing as it gains latitude in the next 12 to 24HR should definitely start ramping up some by then, but due to the high shear to the W of the system it won't be a dramatic increase for now, but last couple shear images do show shear retreating W as 91L gets better organized.
1050. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:

Do you think it will be a large TC? TIA
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...

This is not good at all... 91L keeps getting better organized. Puerto Rico and Hispanola could be in for some life threatning flooding. Specially in Hispanola if the GFS track comes to fruition. Definitely keeping an eye on it to warn family in both islands.

VORT is well established at 850MB and 500MB. I do believe we have a TD by 11AM ET if not a TS.

850MB:



500MB:



Upper level Anti-Cyclone:




So much for the SHEAR SHEAR SHEAR.. :P
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i have seen sytems more rageddey than 91L and still being called a TS simply because it is closer to CONUS NHC is so full of it it aint funny just like the weather channel only when a storm/hurricane threatens the CONUS do they givr more info and coverage, sorry for the rant but its true... 91L is a TS in my opinion.. period
Yes is true, if it was about to hit conus they will classify that's why our loca Mets in the island give us the advices independently form NHC since we are very aware of that.
Quoting Autistic2:


Ivan oh man com on. not Ivan,Had to go there....

We did the ivan thing last night.. TS at 8deg Hurricane at 10..went up to 13 then back down to grenada...similar..
morning!
What is funny is all the people accusing people of not knowing the difference between tropical and subtropical last night yet they were the ones wrong. Looks like Tropical won out haha. That stuff cracks me up.
Quoting WxLogic:


Land interaction should be decreasing as it gains latitude in the next 12 to 24HR should definitely start ramping up some by then, but due to the high shear to the W of the system it won't be a dramatic increase for now, but last couple shear images do show shear retreating W as 91L gets better organized.

The ULL and shear has been retreating NW at about the same rate as 91 is heading NW for the last 16 hours..so shear will not affect it much as long as it stay below 15N for now and 20N after 48hours
Quoting Chicklit:
morning!

Hey Chick Morning
Station 41040
NDBC
Location: 14.477N 53.008W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 29 Oct 2010 10:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 ktSignificant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.90 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
NHC should do the smart thing and classifying 91L a TD, send some warnings out for the Islands. Of course when recon goes out in it later today, they should find Thomas. People need to be notified on what is coming their way. 91L is obviously no longer a Invest, appears to be a strong TD on the verge of TS status. Wake up NHC!
Quoting WxLogic:

Looks to be TD already... may be bordering TS:


I definitely expect a bump to 90% to 100% by next TWO (8AM) with classification by 11AM ET.
I can't believe they didn't bump it last night..and they wasted shary on a potentialess blob
It's had circulation and sustained and organizing convection for a day now
Quoting reedzone:
NHC should do the smart thing and classifying 91L a TD, send some warnings out for the Islands. Of course when recon goes out in it later today, they should find Thomas. People need to be notified on what is coming their way. 91L is obviously no longer a Invest, appears to be a strong TD on the verge of TS status. Wake up NHC!

You do not classify something unless you know for sure that is what it is. People should know what is coming their way or the mets down there are not doing their job. A classification will not magically spread the news that something is coming. The mets there should already be doing that. Classifying it before it is a TD is a cop out.
Station 41101
Meteo France
Location: 14.600N 56.201W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 29 Oct 2010 11:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 18.1 ktSignificant Wave Height: 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.86 in and
HH flight plan

000NOUS42 KNHC 271520 AMDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1120 AM EDT WED 27 OCTOBER 2010SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z OCTOBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-148 AMENDMENTI. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK :( PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 9.0N AND 57.5W FOR 29/1800Z) WITH FOLLOW ON 6 HRLY FIXES BEGINNING 30/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. ---ADDEDII. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE. WVW


2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. 29/1800Z B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST C. 29/1530Z D. 09.5N 57.0W E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.
SLU been around? Looks like they may have a rainy couple days.
91L is coming together nicely but is too broad to be a classified a TD last night. Sometime today it will get its status but the gradient is so wide open. The winds are probably not as strong as you might think. It will tighten up today and the HH will probably find close to TS winds in another 12 hours.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

You do not classify something unless you know for sure that is what it is. People should know what is coming their way or the mets down there are not doing their job. A classification will not magically spread the news that something is coming. The mets there should already be doing that. Classifying it before it is a TD is a cop out.
The Mets in most of the islands get their info from the NHC therefore will not issue any kind of warnings or watches unless NHC has classified it.
T.C.F.A.
INV/91L/XX
MARK
10.10n/53.33w
The Good news for the Leewards..ST islands..and Puerto Rico
48hour GFS forecast map
The high pressure forecast to build in should keep the storm to our south. BUT get ready just in case it's only a couple hundred miles to our south.
And boats get into a hole.. no boats on the beach this time!!!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The Mets in most of the islands get their info from the NHC therefore will not issue any kind of warnings or watches unless NHC has classified it.

Warnings and watches should not be issued if there is not a storm yet. My point is that 91L is not a TD yet and you do not jump the gun on naming something just because you think it will get there. You name it when it gets to that status. 91L is too broad right now and the convection is slightly disorganized. It did come together nicely overnight and is showing signs of improving conditions. It will get its label today.
and the mets are not doing their job if they are not saying a possible tropical system is expecting to land here in 2-3 days etc...
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
and the mets are not doing their job if they are not saying a possible tropical system is expecting to land here in 2-3 days etc...
Cayman Islands got that information about 12 hours before Ivan hit. Previous to that we were told it would pass to the north of us.
Quoting reedzone:
NHC should do the smart thing and classifying 91L a TD, send some warnings out for the Islands. Of course when recon goes out in it later today, they should find Thomas. People need to be notified on what is coming their way. 91L is obviously no longer a Invest, appears to be a strong TD on the verge of TS status. Wake up NHC!
chill out reed everything in due process it will be 21L soon enough
1074. DDR
Morning all
Very quiet in Trinidad right now
Noting much on radar...Link
1075. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
ABNT20 KNHC 291144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.
91L /PRE-Tomas is now up to 80%
TS TOMAS at 11am
1078. IKE
Poor NHC gets hammered on here...on the "vent" blog.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The Mets in most of the islands get their info from the NHC therefore will not issue any kind of warnings or watches unless NHC has classified it.

The mets in San juan PR are constantly having to hint at things POSSIBLY being bad since the they cannot jump the NHC..
This cause problem in situation like this where there is probably going be a TS or hurricane to our south in 48 hours
Quoting DDR:
Morning all
Very quiet in Trinidad right now
Noting much on radar...Link

what is your local met office saying about 91L
Quoting sailingallover:

The mets in San juan PR are constantly having to hint at things POSSIBLY being bad since the they cannot jump the NHC..
This cause problem in situation like this where there is probably going be a TS or hurricane to our south in 48 hours


Unfortunately the NHC will name 91L at 5 p.m. today, you people down there need to start preparations. It could be at like 50 mph. when they name it lol.
Quoting IKE:
Poor NHC gets hammered on here...on the "vent" blog.

Ike we had major damage from what became otto..a boat that had just gotten pulled off the beach from earl ended up back on the beach. They need to give more warning on these almost but not quite yet because the circulation is not defined enough to classify but you get 45 knots sustained for 10 minutes every half hour with higher gusts storms


1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.


2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

A. 29/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST

C. 29/1530Z

D. 09.5N 57.0W

E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM

NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.
Bermuda's sure in for some heavy weather...

Morning Ike. Had to break out the sweaters and coats this morning in Crestview. How's your weather?
1087. roleli
We in Jamaica will be keeping our eyes on 91L. We have had enough damage from rain associated with Nicole.

The system appears to look much better this morning. I am not surprised NHC upgradde it to 80% chance. I expect it to be higher even a tropical depression at the 11:00 a.m update.
91L up to 80%
Quoting IKE:
Poor NHC gets hammered on here...on the "vent" blog.
Which is very stupid since they are very highly trained and know what they are doing. They can only forecast what they see as they are not God.
1090. Relix
5PM would be a bit tad lat. Naming it a TD to at least get some warnings out at 11AM is ideal. Gives people, minimum, 6 hours to prepare additionally. Always can come in handy. I expect a TD at 11AM. Just for warnings out. If not... many will be unprepared. Halloween is around the corner.
yeah they will call it when it almost on top of them, giving the public little time for any final preps, sad sad, most people are not on blogs like us following the weather so they wont know untill the powers to be transmit this info.... aaaaaah boy!!
1092. DDR
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:

what is your local met office saying about 91L

Hi kman,
From the website
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE INFORMATION BULLETIN 4

ACTIVE AND VIGOUROUS TROPICAL WAVE 650KM EAST OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

At 5.00am today the area of low pressure
associated with the very active Tropical Wave is
now centered approximately 650km east of Trinidad
and Tobago and has become better organized.



The wave is moving toward the west to
west-northwest at 24 to 32 kmh and there is a 60%
chance of intensifying into a Tropical Depression
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Environmental
conditions are favourable for further
development.


The leading periphery of the wave should begin
affecting Trinidad and Tobago during the late
afternoon/evening. Moderate to heavy showers can
be expected along with isolated thundershowers
capable of producing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
These downpours can yield moderate to severe
street or flash flooding and strong bursts of
gusts in excess of 50kmh.


As the wave continues to intensify and move closer
to Trinidad and Tobago showery activity can yield
3 to 4 inches and possibly 5 to 6 inches from
early Saturday into Sunday. Wind speeds with
gusts in excess of 55kmh are likely.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
yeah they will call it when it almost on top of them, giving the public little time for any final preps, sad sad, most people are not on blogs like us following the weather so they wont know untill the powers to be transmit this info.... aaaaaah boy!!
You are right to a certain extent but the NHC does not issue warnings for the islands and their own mets should be making people aware that there is a very good chance of TS conditions within a certain period of time.
The islands should be preparing for TS conditions in the next 24 hours. NHC is waiting a tad too long if they don't initiate advisories and warnings by 11 a.m.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which is very stupid since they are very highly trained and know what they are doing. They can only forecast what they see as they are not God.

Exactly. The way I see, why in the hell should they care what gets said on here? Their jobs are not in jeopardy, nor are they competing with some other entity out there. They are the authority. Period. While talk of conspiracy theories may be much more juicy, it's not always the truth. They do their best and do a great job the way I see it.
91l the most impressive looking invest this year. and its Almost November!!
Quoting reedzone:
The islands should be preparing for TS conditions in the next 24 hours. NHC is waiting a tad too long if they don't initiate advisories and warnings by 11 a.m.
The NHC does not issue warnings for the islands. That is up to their own government when they will do that.
1098. IKE
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Morning Ike. Had to break out the sweaters and coats this morning in Crestview. How's your weather?


Morning low 50.9. Nice with a slight breeze...morning has broken. I'm riding the peace train....
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly. The way I see, why in the hell should they care what gets said on here? Their jobs are not in jeopardy, nor are they competing with some other entity out there. They are the authority. Period. While talk of conspiracy theories may be much more juicy, it's not always the truth. They do their best and do a great job the way I see it.
Yes.
1100. WxLogic
Quoting sailingallover:
I can't believe they didn't bump it last night..and they wasted shary on a potentialess blob
It's had circulation and sustained and organizing convection for a day now


I believe there could have been some factors that we're not aware of that could have been delaying the classification.
not advising anybody this sounds like adising to me

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
Relatively favorable conditions aloft should persist for 91L through at least today. Not a whole lot of shear right now.

Click To Enlarge
Quoting WxLogic:


I believe there could have been some factors that we're not aware of that could have been delaying the classification.
Everyone says it with each and every possible TC. Most likely waiting to see what recon finds.
1104. WxLogic
80% by 8AM TWO... close enough to 90% jeje.
1105. 7544
91l just keeps growing and growing in size as a hurricane symbol look to it . but imo its a ts now . this thing is huge with banding to east and west all around and a tail reaching all the way east to africa this could cover the whole carb if it all stays in tact
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You are right to a certain extent but the NHC does not issue warnings for the islands and their own mets should be making people aware that there is a very good chance of TS conditions within a certain period of time.
agreed but a lot of mets do get thier info from nhc in the CONUS and make thier call on systems , pleased tht T&T gave warning of 55km winds at least people will know.
The signs were easy to see last night why it was not named a TD. The center was way to broad and convection was disorganized. This morning it looks a lot better but the center is still broad. This means the winds are not nearly as high as you think. It will get its status today as it improves. The mets down there suck if they are waiting to tell people that a system that has signs of being a tropical system will hit in the next couple of days.

NHC does a great job with the tools they had. It is easy to sit here and make a call but look in the mirror. How many times are you wrong? Yea way more than they are. A lot of people on here would have had Tampa evacuated and costing millions if they worked at NHC for Richard.
1109. DDR
I'm out
keep you all updated later,im expecting storm warnings to be issued for t&t later today.
1110. roleli
While I have a lot of respect for NHC and great appreciation for the work they do, I wondered, were they caught off-guard with Paula. It went from an Invest to Tropical Storm with 60 MPH winds.

What happened there? Was it just rapid intensification?
cat5 that image is not of a stong wave but a tropical storm
Amazing outflow & banding features present.

Click For Animation
WooooooW!!!!!
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
cat5 that image is not of a stong wave but a tropical storm

This could be one of those that can jump designations and could become a TS on next evaluation--whether it's a TWO, special update, or 11am EDT update.
the lower 48 appears to be closed for business tropically speaking, need i say more!!
It looks like we are going to have a major hurricane in the Caribbean next week as 91L has a classic shape and this appears as if it wants to reall ramp up now. I would say this is a 50mph storm right now.
I COULDNT AGREE MORE!
1118. roleli
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly. The way I see, why in the hell should they care what gets said on here? Their jobs are not in jeopardy, nor are they competing with some other entity out there. They are the authority. Period. While talk of conspiracy theories may be much more juicy, it's not always the truth. They do their best and do a great job the way I see it.


You are right. The NH are not God. I saw one weather forecaster on a local TV channel in Jamaica talking about Richard. He was so definite about the path Richard would take. I had to say to myself he forgets he is forecaster not God.
After my 94 yesterday, today appears it will cooler at 84. What a nice change of pace.
T.C.F.A.
INV/91L/XX
MARK
10.10n/55.23w
Pressure down another notch; winds still at 30 knots. Expect classification today. 9.3N/55.7W:

AL, 91, 2010102912, , BEST, 0, 93N, 557W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting poknsnok:
GFS puts a hurricane south of jamaica in a few days

GFS came aboard then. 06z must of been the first run suggesting this then.
Quoting stormpetrol:
the lower 48 appears to be closed for business tropically speaking, need i say more!!

Nope. You said it SP. Said it well ;) I agree.
Quoting stormpetrol:
the lower 48 appears to be closed for business tropically speaking, need i say more!!


I agree with you to some degree but the models are having a hard time trying to figure out what to do with this cut off low next week. Some models stall this near TX and try to lift 91L into the NW Caribbean. That is the solution of the NOGAPS. Bottomline is US is not out of the woods yet.
out now back later, play nice now.
Quoting IKE:


Morning low 50.9. Nice with a slight breeze...morning has broken. I'm riding the peace train....


Good tune. I can’t believe it’s been over four decades since I introduced Cat Stevens, Harry Chapin and Neil Diamond to my high school buddies. It seems like only yesterday.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
The signs were easy to see last night why it was not named a TD. The center was way to broad and convection was disorganized. This morning it looks a lot better but the center is still broad. This means the winds are not nearly as high as you think. It will get its status today as it improves. The mets down there suck if they are waiting to tell people that a system that has signs of being a tropical system will hit in the next couple of days.

NHC does a great job with the tools they had. It is easy to sit here and make a call but look in the mirror. How many times are you wrong? Yea way more than they are. A lot of people on here would have had Tampa evacuated and costing millions if they worked at NHC for Richard.
agree still got some work to do to be classified. this afternoon it should be alittle more concentrated
1129. 7544
Quoting stormpetrol:
the lower 48 appears to be closed for business tropically speaking, need i say more!!


and it was also said the area that 91L is in was close for bussiness tooo and look what happen ther lol nothing is set in stone this season see what happens first lol
Quoting Jeff9641:
After my 94 yesterday, today appears it will cooler at 84. What a nice change of pace.

Well Jeff--GFS is now showing a hurricane in the carib but has dropped the severe wx event a bit for the FL panhandle we were looking at yesterday it seems. I'm still hoping they'll be rain with that though.
see the spin.
navy took down 91 l may be upgrade soon
Quoting 7544:


and it was also said the area that 91L is in was close for bussiness tooo and look what happen ther lol nothing is set in stone this season see what happens first lol


Too many models with different solutions next week but to say the US is closed right now is foolish when some models suggest different. Right now we just have to wait and see. We need to see a pattern play out before ruling out an area.
Quoting 7544:


and it was also said the area that 91L is in was close for bussiness tooo and look what happen ther lol nothing is set in stone this season see what happens first lol

I don't think the states have to worry as much because of water temps..those area must have..
91 is working it's way between areas of shear and dry air..it is just in the perfect spot/timing/situation to allow development way out of climatology expectations. But the CONUS is soon to be surrounded by cold water while a remnant may hit probability of a strong storm is very slim...
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
90L.INVEST
20L.SHARY


HWRF still showing some crazy lenny-like / omar-like stuffs

Why is it insisting so much (with LBAR)??
Quoting 7544:


and it was also said the area that 91L is in was close for bussiness tooo and look what happen ther lol nothing is set in stone this season see what happens first lol


Very true, but key word in my comment "appears" sometime things are not what they appear, you gave an excellent example, climo don't all the time either!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
90L.INVEST
20L.SHARY



renumber coming Keeper?
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Relatively favorable conditions aloft should persist for 91L through at least today. Not a whole lot of shear right now.

Click To Enlarge

The 50knot shear area was centered over St Thomas yesterday..they are moving in tandem
I see a lot of the standard armchair mets here yet again this morning second-guessing the experts. I should be used to it by now; the conspiracy theorists, the anti-NHC'ers, the HAARP players--all of them claiming to know more than a widely-dispersed group of very talented meteorologists, many who've spent more years looking at hurricanes professionally than some of those here complaining have even been on earth...and that's not to mention their combined decades of advanced schooling leading to numerous doctoral degrees.

sigh...

Guys, there's one solid reason the NHC has not yet classified 91L as a TD or a TS: it's not one yet. Period. And when it is, they will.
1142. 7544
might see 91L AS TD soon
Quoting stormpetrol:


Very true, but key word in my comment "appears" sometime things are not what they appear, you gave an excellent example, climo don't all the time either!


I would be really watching this if I lived in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see a lot of the standard armchair mets here yet again this morning second-guessing the experts. I should be used to it by now; the conspiracy theorists, the anti-NHC'ers, the HAARP players--all of them claiming to know more than a widely-dispersed group of very talented meteorologists, many who've spent more years looking at hurricanes professionally than some of those here complaining have even been on earth...and that's not to mention their combined decades of advanced schooling leading to numerous doctoral degrees.

sigh...

Guys, there's one solid reason the NHC has not yet classified 91L as a TD or a TS: it's not one yet. Period. And when it is, they will.


Oh God, they've gotten to you too!

;)
91L will become Tomas and if Tomas tracks to the Caribbean (south of Jamaica) climatology would indicate it would move north through central Cuba and then be flung NE through central Bahamas and back to the Atlantic. With that said, I hope I am right.
Morning All. No land for 91L this time around. Development looks immanent. My initial thoughts are a turn Nward before 80W however, he's a biggin so, we'll let this one perculate a while.

Quoting sailingallover:

The 50knot shear area was centered over St Thomas yesterday..they are moving in tandem

Yep. One of the reasons I don't see shear being a big impediment to this system down the road.
91L is definitely a TD by now, they should have classified it at 8...

for comparison, here's TD5 from earlier this year:



They should upgrade it at 11

and it even looks better than Bonnie did:
1149. WxLogic
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
91L will become Tomas and if Tomas tracks to the SW Caribbean (south of Jamiaca) climatology would indicate it would move north through central Cuba and then be flung NE through central Bahamas and back to the Atlantic. With that said, I hope I am right.


Well climatology said also that Richard was supposed to enter the E GOM and exit NE, but didn't pan out... as you hinted. It's a matter of waiting.
1150. CaneBob
It appears that 91L poses no threat to the Continental United States as it develops into a TS today and a hurricane within 24-48 hours if not earlier. The movement will take the storm Northwest eventually North and than Northeast. Residents of Hispanola, Puerto Rico, Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands should pay close attention to this storm as should all interests in the Caribbean and United States.
Very Very close

AL, 91, 2010102912, , BEST, 0, 93N, 557W, 30, 1005, DB,
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
91L will become Tomas and if Tomas tracks to the Caribbean (south of Jamaica) climatology would indicate it would move north through central Cuba and then be flung NE through central Bahamas and back to the Atlantic. With that said, I hope I am right.

You sure got Climo and also the GFS on your side. The Latest 06z run (500mb plot) does just that.
1153. WxLogic
Positive MJO:



NAO... still in the negative, but trending towards neutral so it will be interesting for sure:

Poll time!

A. Tropical Storm (Includes Subtropical)

B. Tropical Depression (Includes Subtropical)

C. None

1155. 7544
starting to wrap around at this hour the plane may find a strong ts today
Quoting sailingallover:

I don't think the states have to worry as much because of water temps..those area must have..
91 is working it's way between areas of shear and dry air..it is just in the perfect spot/timing/situation to allow development way out of climatology expectations. But the CONUS is soon to be surrounded by cold water while a remnant may hit probability of a strong storm is very slim...

Good point about the timing and location of 91L to allow it the chance to develop...regardless of climatology. It's good the conditions aloft at the right time to develop. And the CONUS will most likely not be a threat.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

A. Tropical Storm (Includes Subtropical)

B. Tropical Depression (Includes Subtropical)

C. None




B.

Due to the size it will take longer than normal.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All. No land for 91L this time around. Development looks immanent. My initial thoughts are a turn Nward before 80W however, he's a biggin so, we'll let this one perculate a while.



so 91L could be a problem anywhere from the windwards, to the N and NE caribbean... Models are just all over the place but there is a good agreement that Thomas will recurve in the caribbean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

A. Tropical Storm (Includes Subtropical)

B. Tropical Depression (Includes Subtropical)

C. None


B
1160. P451
91L is one very impressive looking tropical disturbance.

As said it's large size and large circulation center are probably the reason it was not yet upgraded.

I think it's a given we'll have a TD or TS on our hands today. Just taking a little time to spin up given all that size.

Incredible satellite imagery though.
I will go with A seems we have had too may jump right to TS status this year...
Probably a renumber by 9am.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
navy took down 91 l may be upgrade soon


Hello Keep. Do you think TD or TS? I think TD and NHC will wait for the recon reports
Quoting CaneBob:
It appears that 91L poses no threat to the Continental United States as it develops into a TS today and a hurricane within 24-48 hours if not earlier. The movement will take the storm Northwest eventually North and than Northeast. Residents of Hispanola, Puerto Rico, Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands should pay close attention to this storm as should all interests in the Caribbean and United States.


perfectly agree
1167. 7544
haiti really needs to watch 91l then the bahamas imo
Tropical Depression 20/Tropical Storm Tomas should be up in just a little bit.

We're undergoing a renumber.

I think 91L's COC is now at 10N
Can I have the link to the ATCF site?
Quoting 7544:
haiti really needs to watch 91l then the bahamas imo


No this thing can't hit haiti, I refuse to believe it.. but time will tell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can I have the link to the ATCF site?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
Quoting CaribBoy:


No this thing can't hit haiti, I refuse to believe it.. but time will tell


I believe they have a name for that... I just can't remember what it is.. denial or something.
Quoting CaribBoy:


so 91L could be a problem anywhere from the windwards, to the N and NE caribbean... Models are just all over the place but there is a good agreement that Thomas will recurve in the caribbean.


I surely don't agree with you there. Saying anyone is out of the woods at this point is rather foolish.

Did Richard not school the best of them?
1175. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:
It looks like we are going to have a major hurricane in the Caribbean next week as 91L has a classic shape and this appears as if it wants to reall ramp up now. I would say this is a 50mph storm right now.
It would be classified as a tropical storm if it was. Quit trying to make yourself seem smarter than the NHC. It would be classified if it met the criteria for a TS.
1176. 7544
once this is clasified the new model runs will be interesting as well as the big 5 day cone may go further west imo
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hello Keep. Do you think TD or TS? I think TD and NHC will wait for the recon reports
init will be TD 21L then during or after recon TS Tomas i reckon
1178. 7544
what time recon goes in tia
Quoting Neapolitan:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


Thanks.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
init will be TD 21L then during or after recon TS Tomas i reckon

That's what I think.
Quoting 7544:
haiti really needs to watch 91l then the bahamas imo


You ain't lying Haiti appears to be in a serious situation. Haiti has been in the news this week about diseases breaking out. Very serious situation there and I know this first hand as my granddad is helping in the rebuilding process.

Haiti Disease Outbreak Kills Dozens
An outbreak of severe diarrhea in rural central Haiti has killed dozens of people and sickened hundreds more who overwhelmed a crowded hospital Thursday seeking treatment.View Full Image

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Family members wait with sick relatives at a medical facility in St. Marc. Hundreds of people have fallen ill in the country's Artibonite region.
.Hundreds of patients lay on blankets in a parking lot outside St. Nicholas Hospital in the port city of St. Marc with IVs in their arms for rehydration, the Associated Press reported. As rain began to fall in the afternoon, nurses rushed to carry them inside.

Doctors at Haiti's national laboratory were testing for cholera, typhoid and other illnesses in the Caribbean nation's Artibonite region.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was also investigating the outbreak, along with the Haitian Ministry of Health and the Pan-American Health Organization.

"Results are pending," a CDC spokeswoman said of the test samples.

If confirmed, it would be the first major disease outbreak since the January earthquake, said Andrew Marx, spokesman for Partners in Health, one of the largest U.S.health organizations operating in Haiti. The earthquake killed as many as 300,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands, many of whom are still living in tents.

"This is the first major epidemic that has taken place since the earthquake as far as I'm aware," Mr. Marx said.

The president of the Haitian Medical Association, Claude Surena, said the illness appeared to be consistent with symptoms of cholera, but added that the government and medical officials had not yet confirmed the cause.

"The concern is that it could go from one place to another place, and it could affect more people or move from one region to another one,'' he said.

Health experts and humanitarian aid groups have warned for months that the crowded conditions in which refugees of the January earthquake are living in Haiti could spawn epidemics of deadly disease. But cholera wasn't high on their list, because Haiti hasn't had a cholera outbreak since the 1960s. Nor was the Artibonite region, which escaped heavy damage from the earthquake, of as great a concern as the Port-au-Prince area.

But Artibonite has also absorbed thousands of refugees, who could spread disease living in close quarters, health experts say. The area has also long suffered from a lack of clean water, Mr. Marx said.

Patients with acute diarrhea—a symptom of cholera as well as other diseases—began arriving Tuesday at the St. Nicholas Hospital in St. Marc, where PIH works, Mr. Marx said.

By Wednesday morning, "it was clear there was something serious going on," he said.

As of Thursday, the hospital had reported 500 cases and 12 deaths. Another hospital that PIH works with in the city of Petite Riviere reported 50 cases and three deaths, with another five deaths reported in the community.

Catherine Huck, deputy country director for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told the Associated Press that the country's health ministry had recorded 135 deaths and more than 1,000 infected people.

"What we know is that people have diarrhea, and they are vomiting, and (they) can go quickly if they are not seen in time," Ms. Huck said.

PIH is sending health workers out into local communities to warn residents of the outbreak and urge them to drink only purified or boiled water and to adhere to other sanitation measures, Mr. Marx said.

Shary is more than likely not going to strengthen today...I don't know what is with it, but every time a storm gets close to Bermuda, it dies out.

With the case of Igor, becomes extra-tropical.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I surely don't agree with you there. Saying anyone is out of the woods at this point is rather foolish.

Did Richard not school the best of them?


Yes richard has been a nightmarre to predict. However it's not possible to say with precision which area will be affected after the windwards.
1184. P451
Quoting divdog:
It would be classified as a tropical storm if it was. Quit trying to make yourself seem smarter than the NHC. It would be classified if it met the criteria for a TS.


Man you need to lay off. NHC is probably waiting for recon info. Looking at sat images it appears that this has the making of a TS right now and they may very well name this soon. Also my prayers go out to Haiti as they don't need another disaster.
Quoting P451:
mighty tomas
Quoting Jeff9641:
After my 94 yesterday, today appears it will cooler at 84. What a nice change of pace.


And its the front that dropped your temp to 84 that will eventually steer Tomas sharply NE somewhere in the Central Caribbean.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
init will be TD 21L then during or after recon TS Tomas i reckon


Thank you!
Wunder how much that storm the other day is going to cost..

$95 million approved for storm relief in Iowa for the storms they had in June, July & August earlier this year.
91L sitting right underneath upper-level ridge

ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 101029120000
2010102912
7.5 306.0
9.2 302.4
100
7.5 306.0
291200
1010291200
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 291200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 54.0W TO 9.2N 57.7W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW
SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 600 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KTS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR WHICH,
ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. REMARKS: THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 301200Z.//
9110073106 88N 329W 20
9110073112 89N 335W 20
9110073118 90N 341W 20
9110080100 92N 347W 20
9110080106 94N 353W 20
9110080112 96N 358W 25
9110080118 98N 366W 25
9110080200 101N 374W 25

Quoting clwstmchasr:


And its the front that dropped your temp to 84 that will eventually steer Tomas sharply NE somewhere in the Central Caribbean.


Yeah Haiti it appears. I am disappointed at FSU today as they should have won last night but Christian Ponder fumbled the ball.
Here in Dom.Rep. we are watching pretty close 91L, looks impressive but hopefully it's moving W and (I Think) will pass south from this island as we can see in the animated loop.LINK: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-jsl.html
very high wind shear will kill TROPICAL STORM SHARY soon. OVER 60 KNOTS wwe say goodbye to shary..high wind shear will eat shary for lunch soon.
An hour ago, ATCF said 91L's CoC was at 9.3N/55.7W. While satellite presentation looks great on RGB and visible, rainbow IR tells a slightly different story. Mainly, there seems to be a lack of convection right at the center, with the majority of the heavy stuff many miles to the north and east. I'm not saying this won't develop; it appears very robust for a mere disturbance. I'm also not saying the NHC won't reclassify it this morning, especially given its proximity to the islands. But, while I'm definitely no expert, it doesn't look to me quite like a TD just yet...and certainly not a TS.

As always, of course, I could be proven wrong...
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
very high wind shear will kill TROPICAL STORM SHARY soon. OVER 60 KNOTS wwe say goodbye to shary..high wind shear will eat shary for lunch soon.

Heard she's quite tasty
Here's a good reason why this is taking so long to name...(advisory from the tropical depression that became wilma)

Quoting NHC:
BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER ...OFTENTIMES THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF LARGE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE WILL LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT


this is quite applicable here
I think that Haiti and south Bahamas will be safe from this one but I think it will be hell for us here in the Cayman Islands and in Jamaica and in Central Cuba and Central Bahamas
Quoting Neapolitan:
An hour ago, ATCF said 91L's CoC was at 9.3N/55.7W. While satellite presentation looks great on RGB and visible, rainbow IR tells a slightly different story. Mainly, there seems to be a lack of convection right at the center, with the majority of the heavy stuff many miles to the north and east. I'm not saying this won't develop; it appears very robust for a mere disturbance. I'm also not saying the NHC won't reclassify it this morning, especially given its proximity to the islands. But, while I'm definitely no expert, it doesn't look to me quite like a TD just yet...and certainly not a TS.

As always, of course, I could be proven wrong...


I definitely disagree....
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
very high wind shear will kill TROPICAL STORM SHARY soon. OVER 60 KNOTS wwe say goodbye to shary..high wind shear will eat shary for lunch soon.
just as its forecasted to do
1204. JRRP
GFDL
1197:

You bring up a good point about the displaced convective activity situated mainly off to the north and east since everything else looks pretty good. And that could be a reason why NHC is not jumping the gun on this quite yet.
1207. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see a lot of the standard armchair mets here yet again this morning second-guessing the experts. I should be used to it by now; the conspiracy theorists, the anti-NHC'ers, the HAARP players--all of them claiming to know more than a widely-dispersed group of very talented meteorologists, many who've spent more years looking at hurricanes professionally than some of those here complaining have even been on earth...and that's not to mention their combined decades of advanced schooling leading to numerous doctoral degrees.

sigh...

Guys, there's one solid reason the NHC has not yet classified 91L as a TD or a TS: it's not one yet. Period. And when it is, they will.
Great post....Excellent post.....Really good post....Terrific post.....91L has what appears to be a significant tail..
UK coast guard: Polish tall ship loses both masts in severe weather, 36 teenage sailors aboard
1210. JRRP
Quoting Skyepony:
Wunder how much that storm the other day is going to cost..

$95 million approved for storm relief in Iowa for the storms they had in June, July & August earlier this year.

They sure deserved that after the situation over the summer. In regards to the Chi-Clone, power storm--whatever you call it--that moved through earlier in the week....that was more a wind event for folks in IA.

Thanks for that link
Jakarta - Rescue workers were racing against time Friday in their search for hundreds of people missing on Indonesia's tsunami-hit Mentawai islands as an official estimated that the death toll could rise to around 600.

The confirmed death toll from Monday's tsunami and magnitude-7.7 earthquake rose to 408 people while 303 people were listed as missing, said the Regional Disaster Management Agency in West Sumatra province, where the Mentawais are located. At least 44 people were reported injured.

Storms and waves as high as 6 metres have prevented aid from reaching some areas in the Mentawai chain, said Ade Edward, head of the agency.

Edward estimated that only about 100 of the missing were still alive.

"We are assuming that one-third of the missing are in the hills but have not been accounted for by local officials," he said.

"The others were perhaps swept away by the sea or buried under the mud," he added. more....
I do see what Neo is saying with the extremely intense convection limited to the curve band, but I do think that this will be a depression or possibly a storm later today. Outflow is excellent in the Western quadrants and convection will only be increasing.


Quoting JRRP:

la onamet le esta dando especial seguimiento y exhorta a la poblacion mantenerse atentos


that may be hard to do if the population isn't aware something is out there... onamet should send out some public notices or something like that...
1215. beell
91L just needs to gain a little more latitude to pull together.
1217. JRRP
Link
where is 91L ???
1218. JRRP
Quoting hurristat:


that may be hard to do if the population isn't aware something is out there... onamet should send out some public notices or something like that...


jejeje is true
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I do see what Neo is saying with the extremely intense convection limited to the curve band, but I do think that this will be a depression or possibly a storm later today. Outflow is excellent in the Western quadrants and convection will only be increasing.



Outflow is terrific. At the very least, I don't see those outward bands sustaining that amount of cold convective activity that much longer. I think it will begin to consolidate a bit more and concentrate itself more toward and around the closed-off CoC as time goes on today..thus TD or TS Tomas should be born.
puerto Rico!!! what uuuup!!!!!
Quoting beell:
91L just needs to gain a little more latitude to pull together.

Not only that but to avoid any land contact on it's way. Although at this point I think it should stay well offshore.
Quoting JRRP:
Link
where is 91L ???
awaiting re-number
1223. Grothar
Dynamic models:

1224. Grothar
1225. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
awaiting re-number

ok
1226. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
Jakarta - Rescue workers were racing against time Friday in their search for hundreds of people missing on Indonesia's tsunami-hit Mentawai islands as an official estimated that the death toll could rise to around 600.

The confirmed death toll from Monday's tsunami and magnitude-7.7 earthquake rose to 408 people while 303 people were listed as missing, said the Regional Disaster Management Agency in West Sumatra province, where the Mentawais are located. At least 44 people were reported injured.

Storms and waves as high as 6 metres have prevented aid from reaching some areas in the Mentawai chain, said Ade Edward, head of the agency.

Edward estimated that only about 100 of the missing were still alive.

"We are assuming that one-third of the missing are in the hills but have not been accounted for by local officials," he said.

"The others were perhaps swept away by the sea or buried under the mud," he added. more....
That area has been receiving more than its fair share of disasters. I pray they will have some tranquility some day. It is a beautiful part of the world. And very dangerous...
grothar stop freaking out puerto Rico
Wow! Just got on and 91L sure looks like it should already have a name, IMO!

Morning folks!
1229. Grothar
I know it's quite a bit away, but SHIPS really ramps this up.

Click To Enlarge
It appears the NAVY pulled 91L and is renumbering it to 21L. Looks like the NHC will pull the trigger at 11 a.m.
1232. Grothar
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
grothar stop freaking out puerto Rico


Lo sentimos!
Quoting reedzone:
It appears the NAVY pulled 91L and is renumbering it to 21L. Looks like the NHC will pull the trigger at 11 a.m.

Yep
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
The signs were easy to see last night why it was not named a TD. The center was way to broad and convection was disorganized. This morning it looks a lot better but the center is still broad. This means the winds are not nearly as high as you think. It will get its status today as it improves. The mets down there suck if they are waiting to tell people that a system that has signs of being a tropical system will hit in the next couple of days.

NHC does a great job with the tools they had. It is easy to sit here and make a call but look in the mirror. How many times are you wrong? Yea way more than they are. A lot of people on here would have had Tampa evacuated and costing millions if they worked at NHC for Richard.
..agreed looks more like a monsoonal low pressure we'd find in the westpac,this season is starting to make less and less sense,our gov is messing w/the wx patterns and the consequences will be irreversable and extreme imo
1236. Grothar
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yep


It's best that they do because it is too close to the islands, they need to be aware of how much bigger then situation is. I expect watches and warnings to be out.
I thinking it'll go straight to "Thomas".
We've seen a lot less impressive-looking systems designated. JMHO.
1239. Grothar
JRRP they are replacing 91L to 21L
interesting to see the cone or trajectory of this system going to be some heavy rains in that region 8 inches?
LOS MODELOS ESTAN MUY EN DESACUERDO ESTA MUY IMPREDECIBLE 91L.
QUE PODRIAMOS ESPERAR LOS DE LAS HISPANIOLA???
Where are the HH's flying out of today en route to 91L?
I say this I am not trusting most of the models at all but I do with the XTRP and yes I know it's not a model
Quoting Grothar:
Oh my.Thats not looking to good for Puerto Rico.And I will say this about 91L.I think it's very well on the verge of becoming our next storm.I think the nhc will upgrade it possibly when the hh get in their.Like we saw with other storms this year.
1247. Grothar
Quoting jfthurrican:
LOS MODELOS ESTAN MUY EN DESACUERDO ESTA MUY IMPREDECIBLE 91L.
QUE PODRIAMOS ESPERAR LOS DE LAS HISPANIOLA???


Most are in agreement but not on strength.
Heavy rain has begun in Barbados...with periodical high gusts
91l,shoud be a td@11am,no way in heck is their enough sustained convection around the cnter yet for a ts,max winds the antilies wind should be no higher than 50mph thru 48hrs,aftr 48hrs could get much strongr when its south of pr..jmo
1250. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh my.Thats not looking to good for Puerto Rico.And I will say this about 91L.I think it's very well on the verge of becoming our next storm.I think the nhc will upgrade it possibly when the hh get in their.Like we saw with other storms this year.


Most models are keeping it South of PR except for the HWRF. The other models want to keep it more west then a turn to the North around Hispanola later. Until they know the speed and strength, it will be very hard to predict direction.
Quoting Canealum03:
Where are the HH's flying out of today en route to 91L?

Looks like as soon as the NHC classifies it, then it would be 2pm EDT today.

Link
1252. Jax82
when was the last time Barbados was hit with a storm near Halloween?
Shear sure doesn't appear to be an issue for 91L at least in the short term.

Click To Enlarge
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yep

And there there was Tomas :O)!!
Quoting Grothar:


Most models are keeping it South of PR except for the HWRF. The other models want to keep it more west then a turn to the North around Hispanola later. Until they know the speed and strength, it will be very hard to predict direction.
Hispanola doesn't need another disater.They've already had a deadly one back in january.Stay away 91L.Your company isn't needed.
I hope Tomas takes the Mona Passage than a straight NE pathway away from most populated areas.
Someone in Carribean is gonna get plastered..Shields still up for Florida tho.
Quoting jfthurrican:
LOS MODELOS ESTAN MUY EN DESACUERDO ESTA MUY IMPREDECIBLE 91L.
QUE PODRIAMOS ESPERAR LOS DE LAS HISPANIOLA???


While I think that the public should be informed of 91L, I wouldn't start worrying for Haiti quite yet...
Quoting stillwaiting:
91l,shoud be a td@11am,no way in heck is their enough sustained convection around the cnter yet for a ts,max winds the antilies wind should be no higher than 50mph thru 48hrs,aftr 48hrs could get much strongr when its south of pr..jmo

Yep. Everything else looks great but that convection needs to be more tightly and intensely concentrated near the center.
According to the NHC's climatology page:

--The 10th named storm of an average season forms on November 23, while the 11th (when there is one) appears on November 23. This year's tenth named storm, Julia, formed on 9/12, while number eleven, Karl, formed on 9/14.

--The fifth hurricane of an average season forms on forms on October 7, while the eighth (when there is one) appears on November 23. This year's fifth hurricane, also Julia, formed on 9/12, while number six--again, Karl--formed on 9/14.

--The first major hurricane of an average season forms on forms on September 4, while the second (when there is one) appears on October 3. This year's first major, Danielle, formed on 8/22, while number two, Earl, formed on 8/25.

More facts:

--The letter 'S' has only been used twice before in naming a storm: 1995's Sebastien--a tropical storm that formed on 10/21--and 2005's Stan, a hurricane that appeared on October 2. (FWIW, both previous 'S' storms had male names, so Shary is the first "female" 'S' storm.)

--Assuming 91L makes it to 'Tomas'--which appears very likely at the moment, it'll be only the third time the letter 'T' was reached: Hurricane Tanya, which formed on 10/27, was the last storm of 1995, while 2005's TS Tammy formed on October 5. (And again FWIW, both previous 'T' storms had female names, so Tomas would be the first "male" 'T' storm.)

--If all storms had been named under the current naming scheme, 1969 would have reached the letter 'S' on November 21; there would have been no 'T' storm.
Quoting Bordonaro:

And there there was Tomas :O)!!

He's a comin'. Just how fast will be the question.
1262. hydrus
1263. hydrus
91L has a tail.
1264. Relix
91L should miss PR by a nice margin. Some good rainy days though!
I think that's the best looking invest I've ever seen in my lifetime.
1260:

Some good nuggets. Quite an active season.
Quoting hydrus:
91L has a tail.

"91L" is trick or treating as a dog!!
reed,

any chance you see of 91L moving futher westward instead of recurving near eastern cuba?

I am assuming the High above will not be that strong
This image could pass for an August/September day in the tropics

1270. pottery
Good (?) Morning all.
91L is pretty this morning.
Nice weather here, with strong NE winds moving the clouds across the otherwise blue sky.
Actually clouding up a little more now..
Models showing more northward track today than before.
I dont think that is a good thing. Rotation can only improve as it gets north, Resulting in strengthening to the detriment of the Islands.
1271. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

"91L" is trick or treating as a dog!!
A very big dog....And somewhere in the Caribbean is a bone to be chewed.
1272. pottery
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I think that's the best looking invest I've ever seen in my lifetime.

Agree with that!
1273. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:
This image could pass for an August/September day in the tropics

very true.
Quoting pottery:
Good (?) Morning all.
91L is pretty this morning.
Nice weather here, with strong NE winds moving the clouds across the otherwise blue sky.
Actually clouding up a little more now..
Models showing more northward track today than before.
I dont think that is a good thing. Rotation can only improve as it gets north, Resulting in strengthening to the detriment of the Islands.

Good morning! The Calabash tree finish it's TC preparations yet??
Quoting RitaEvac:
This image could pass for an August/September day in the tropics

As we've all said this season hasn't really been normal.
1276. Jax82
SST's



TCHP

1277. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

Good morning! The Calabash tree finish it's TC preparations yet??

Well, it's just settin' there. Sort of waiting to see what happens next.
1278. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
As we've all said this season hasn't really been normal.

Nore have some of the Posters on here!
LOL
1279. ryang
Starting to rain here in Barbados. Few gusts in squalls.
I bet you the doc is busy at the NHC right now.With almost two storms going on at once.
Quoting pottery:

Well, it's just settin' there. Sort of waiting to see what happens next.

If the tree drives away in your auto, RUN!!
kshipre1 I think that 91L will move south of Jamaica and recurve near the Caymans and into central Cuba and Central Bahamas
1283. hydrus
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I think that's the best looking invest I've ever seen in my lifetime.
The NCEP has Haiti getting the worst of it..Link Cannot get the link to work..It shows the storm moving slowly right across the middle of the island.
Quoting pottery:

Nore have some of the Posters on here!
LOL
Now thats funny.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
kshipre1 I think that 91L will move south of Jamaica and recurve near the Caymans and into central Cuba and Central Bahamas

Please don't say that, one "tom" in the family is quite enough!
What is taking the FNMOC Navy so long to put the new info up on Tomas????
Quoting Jax82:
SST's



TCHP



SST's have warmed over the several days due to the extreme heat we've had over FL and the Gulf region. Supposed to back in the upper 80's on Sunday and near 90 on Monday.
I think no matter where future Tomas goes, most of the caribbean will feel some effects from it due to his enormous size!
Quoting kshipre1:
reed,

any chance you see of 91L moving futher westward instead of recurving near eastern cuba?

I am assuming the High above will not be that strong


I believe it will recurve at some point, most likely east of Florida.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think no matter where future Tomas goes, most of the caribbean will feel some effects from it due to his enormous size!

Yeah...his cirrus outflow (western semicircle) aloft is already west of the inlands. He is large.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think no matter where future Tomas goes, most of the caribbean will feel some effects from it due to his enormous size!
Just like when the entire gulf coast felt the effects of Ike.And he made landfall in Galveston.
Quoting Bordonaro:

If the tree drives away in your auto, RUN!!


LOL! Good Morning.

Looks like a busy weekend for us islanders.
Stay dry and get alot of indoor games for the kids to keep them busy. Cause I don't think they'll be outside much. :-(
Quoting kimoskee:


LOL! Good Morning.

Looks like a busy weekend for us islanders.
Stay dry and get alot of indoor games for the kids to keep them busy. Cause I don't think they'll be outside much. :-(

This is a "Matthew"JR..Right past TD status..Just waiting for the "official word"!!
It's interesting how this will come together. I believe the anticyclone will stick around it long enough to make the Hurricane number rise to 11. My prediction was 15-18 storms, 9 or 10 Hurricanes, and 5 majors.
Total count - 18/10/5, heading towards 19 storms later today.

I was actually below the actual count, which is unusual. Impressive Hurricane Season, not boring at all as most people say. I liked tracking awesome storms like Earl and Igor, where Earl was a close call for the USA and Igor was most likely a Category 5, should be bumped in post analysis.
nice stormpetrol you also have a family member by the name of Tom well I have one too he can be great but sometimes a pain in the butt but a great guy
Quoting Bordonaro:

This is a "Matthew"JR..Right past TD status..Just waiting for the "official word"!!
Seems to have been a trend this year...storms becoming an Invest, then jumping straight to TS status...holy tomatoes this late in the season though!?
Quoting lovejessicaa9:


Rainbow imagery is probably the best IR in my opinion.
1300. Gorty
I know I havent been on much here this past week its just I* have a really bad canker sore and I am fed up with the pain so I didnt feel like posting much on here and pretty much doing any talking. But today, the pain is less, so I hope over the weekend I will be feeling no pain but if not then, then early next week.

September 2010=record. No other season on record produced 8 named storms,

And October this year has been pretty active. 4 storms so far, and if Tomas dpes form in this month, that will be 5! It seems like 2010 wants to catch up to 2005.
Can you belive what the weather channel said in their tropical update?."All is quite in the carribean and rest of atlantic".Do they not see the storm near the lesser antillies?
Quoting KeysieLife:
Seems to have been a trend this year...storms becaming an Invest, then jumping straight to TS status...holy tomatoes this late in the season though!?

On Aug 15, 2010, many thought this season would be a bust, only 3 TC's on the books..

FAST Foward to Oct 28, 2010...

We are at 18-10-5 and 91L looks like a TS w/50-60 MPH winds!!
1301:im watching it they havent mention it as a top story for this morning wierd.
It definitely doesn't have any dry air issues to contend with.

thanks Reed. I have not seen the surface area map but is there a area of high pressure just off the florida coast? If so, is it not supposed to be strong enough to steer west?

I ask because of the strong storm system coming down to south next week (trough)
TALKING ABOUT INVEST 91L
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N53W THROUGH A 1006 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 9N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N53W MOVING
WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING
LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG COVERING THE AREA
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-58W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
GUYANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


Quoting washingtonian115:
Can you belive what the weather channel said in their tropical update?."All is quite in the carribean and rest of atlantic".Do they not see the storm near the lesser antillies?


I used to watch TWC back when I was a teenager, after that, they really went low. They're pretty much runned by morons, the Hurricane Authority? I think not!
To those second-guessing the NHC, you should write to tell them you want to see more of the mets there doing this:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

;-)
Quoting kshipre1:
thanks Reed. I have not seen the surface area map but is there a area of high pressure just off the florida coast? If so, is it not supposed to be strong enough to steer west?

I ask because of the strong storm system coming down to south next week (trough)


Any trough should keep the USA safe for the rest of the season. Its late October/Novemeber, we won't see a system travel very far to the west without being recurved. However, the EURO solution comes into mind that the storm does escape a trough and gets pushed southwest into the Western Caribbean, a possible scenario, but even if it recurves at that point, will be east of the USA. In order for Florida to get hit, a storm would have to be in the GOM.
91L is also being protected and aided from the presence of an upper-level ridge sitting almost directly over it.

Click To Enlarge
NHC update on Shary... no difference in windspeed, just in forward speed.
1314. JRRP
Quoting Neapolitan:
To those second-guessing the NHC, you should write to tell them you want to see more of the mets there doing this:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

;-)


Impressive, how did you pull that one? :)
1316. JRRP
Quoting reedzone:


I used to watch TWC back when I was a teenager, after that, they really went low. They're pretty much runned by morons, the Hurricane Authority? I think not!

LOL!

I also used to watch them when I was a teenager in the mid to late 90's back when John Hope was around. But since then I've had no interest.
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
1301:im watching it they havent mention it as a top story for this morning wierd.
This is when TWC goes into selfesh mode.if it's not affecting the united states or won't be affecting it in the coming days then it doesn't matter to them.When a storm hits another country it cuases death,and destruction just like when a storm hits the U.S.
NHC did not pull the trigger on this update.
We're getting ahead of ourselves here...there is hardly a model consensus on "Tomas" and most of what I'm seeing has him (if he gets that far) passing south of Puerto Rico. Hispaniola is at far greater risk at this point than Puerto Rico. Why don't we wait a bit and see how the next model run shakes out before we start screaming and standing on chairs...
Quoting reedzone:


Impressive, how did you pull that one? :)

Just a little bit of photoshop... ;-)

Shary's ACE is now at 0.3675, putting her right up there with the 2010 powerhouse pair of Bonnie and Gaston.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Just a little bit of photoshop... ;-)


It can't be... the NHC forecaster is secretly Neapolitan... it says on the top bar!
1323. pottery
Quoting Floodman:
We're getting ahead of ourselves here...there is hardly a model consesus on "Tomas" and most of what I'm seeing has him (if he gets that far) passing south of Puerto Rico. Hispaniola is at far greater risk at this point than Puerto Rico. Why don't we wait a bit and see how the next model run shakes out before we start screaming and standing on chairs...

Yeh!
But standing on chairs and screaming is much more fun, than sitting and waiting.
Get loose, man!
heheheheh
Good Morning.........Just waiting for the update from Dr. M to clear the air but if "Thomas" does form from this disturbance, it does appear, for the moment, that it would be a rather large system with a broad area of potential impact.
Quoting reedzone:
NHC did not pull the trigger on this update.

Recon will be around there at about 1pm EDT. Think they are waiting to get more from them.
Quoting Floodman:
We're getting ahead of ourselves here...there is hardly a model consesus on "Tomas" and most of what I'm seeing has him (if he gets that far) passing south of Puerto Rico. Hispaniola is at far greater risk at this point than Puerto Rico. Why don't we wait a bit and see how the next model run shakes out before we start screaming and standing on chairs...


Now stop that... you know better then to ruin the kids fun with facts and logic.
upper-level ridge on invest 91L
1329. pottery
BBL.
It's a busy one here....
Quoting reedzone:
NHC did not pull the trigger on this update.
As I've said before they will probally wait to upgrade it when the hh gets in their this afternoon.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Recon will be around there at about 1pm EDT. Think they are waiting to get more from them.


I would agree... from what Jeff wrote, they appear to use facts, logic, and baseline criteria... apparently unlike many on here..they are not allowed to guesstimate.
Probably should wait for recon at 18z to see if the circulation is still broad or not.


I guess no advisorys for 91L yet
Quoting pottery:

Yeh!
But standing on chairs and screaming is much more fun, than sitting and waiting.
Get loose, man!
heheheheh


I want to party with you, cowboy! How's things, pot, my friend?
1335. Seastep
The ASCAT from lat night showed that the LLC was way S, very close to S. America. Could have jumped N, of course.

The large cloud cover and pattern is in the higher levels and more related to the upper level ridge on top, giving it that nice appearance. Where the LLC is, is anyone's guess, but we will know soon enough when the HH get out there. Doubt ASCAT updates before then.

Link

Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


i dont know why the models have this thing going w for a while then out to sea
Tough call.

Quoting weatherlover94:


i dont know why the models have this thing going w for a while then out to sea


My guess would be steering currents.
1339. JRRP
loosing convection but nice structure
1340. P451
Quoting Bordonaro:

On Aug 15, 2010, many thought this season would be a bust, only 3 TC's on the books..

FAST Foward to Oct 28, 2010...

We are at 18-10-5 and 91L looks like a TS w/50-60 MPH winds!!


Bust? I rarely saw any competent posters claim that.

Many, myself included, felt given the slow start to the season that any comparisons to 2005 should end. Also felt that the 14-23 range of storms was and still is a bad forecast (given the range it isn't really a forecast at all)

Personally I felt that 14-18 named storms was a spread that may pan out.

The other thing that may have some trying to label the season a bust is the anticipation of multiple landfalling majors. That of course did not occur. We just never saw the proper steering currents establish themselves as predicted.


But beyond all of that both Earl and Igor were very impressive storms and affected a lot of individuals. The number of major's is also putting a lasting impression on this season - thankfully we didn't have catastrophic landfalls as a result.

I'm wary of 91L though. All eyes on that one for certain.

We can also as usual have those quick odd systems pop up for a day or two that could add to the named storms total.

In the end the season did pan out in a number of ways. It's just the overall lack of interaction with land from these systems gives you the impression it wasn't all that bad of a year.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Now stop that... you know better then to ruin the kids fun with facts and logic.


That's me: professional buzzkill!

On the serious side, future Tomas (and I hate saying that, but damn, look at him...barring something truly unforeseen he'll be named soon enough) Looks very good this morning, but where he's headed? 6-5 and pick'em at this point
i guess it is possible that this one could become a fish on us after i hits the virgin islands and all them places who knows
1343. JRRP
1005 mb
1344. P451
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tough call.



Very impressive but the problem appears to be the core.

The deep storms are displaced and the circulation is very large.

It's just going to take time to tighten up is all.

It seems close to doing that as the last few hours of imagery really shows 91L is circulating very well.

Just needs to tighten up.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tough call.


It is. Such a broad circulation and no true concentrated convective region that might hint a center. It's definitely exhibiting some of the upper-level ridges influences over it with the tremedous outflow though.
Quoting weatherlover94:
i guess it is possible that this one could become a fish on us after i hits the virgin islands and all them places who knows


A fish?

The people of Hispaniola would probably disagree.

1347. P451
Quoting cat5hurricane:


Unimpressive core. Probably the main reason we're still looking at an invest.
Quoting P451:


Bust? I rarely saw any competent posters claim that.

Oh, there were many. Just for fun, I went back and looked at a few predictive comments from late August. These are all from current, well-known forum members:

"I think...a busy season is becoming more unlikely...the Models are forecasting very little activity over the next 2 weeks. The GFS show a winter time like storm in the north atlantic at 230 hours...that will through things off for a while in the MDR...could be a weak season..."

"i have reduced numbers to 12 to 14 for a total and its looking more and more like thats what it will be we have had 5 systems 3 with names 1 cane that leaves another 10 or 11 for the sesaon which will be 13 14 in total"

"I want to take a momemt to apologize to XXXXXX.. Earlier in the season I thought that he was off his rocker, downplaying development with all of these earlier systems. As the season has progressed, he has proven to be RIGHT in downcasting, and most of the rest of us around here were wrong about all the previous systems. We will be lucky to get 11 or 12 (10 seems more likely) named systems..."

"The numbers are set too high. I'm doubting it achieves my forecast of 13."

"Maybe we end the season with 11 to 13 storms the most. Just guessing after 52 years of experience living in the caribbean."

Of course, no ridicule is intended (that's why I've omitted the names). I merely bring these up to highlight the dangers inherent in long-term forecasting, especially when done by rank amateurs, which the majority of us--myself included--most definitely are. And things could certainly have gone the other way--that is, as those who engaged in baseless and illogical nowcasting by predicting an inactive season thought--meaning that we who agreed with both the science and the experts' higher numbers would be the ones sitting here instead of them just a few months later, preparing to eat our heapin' platefuls of crow forkful by cold, feathery forkful.

Whew... ;-)
Quoting weatherlover94:
i guess it is possible that this one could become a fish on us after i hits the virgin islands and all them places who knows

The possibilities are quite broad. The 06Z GFS is taking it near DR.
Quoting P451:


Unimpressive core. Probably the main reason we're still looking at an invest.

I totally agree
Pretty broad core.

Should take 6-24 hours to tighten up.

Quoting Floodman:


That's me: professional buzzkill!

On the serious side, future Tomas (and I hate saying that, but damn, look at him...barring something truly unforeseen he'll be named soon enough) Looks very good this morning, but where he's headed? 6-5 and pick'em at this point


I wouldn't even guess.. but I am surprised none of the Florida wishcasters have not jumped all over it... or said...OMG its might go through box #1 & #2, but the day is early.
1353. NRAamy
SQUAWK!!!!!
Looks like 91L will win out of the shear, the anticyclone still attached to it, shoving the high wind shear that everyone thought (including me) would hamper intensification until it reached the Western Caribbean. I see no reason, if the shear continues to move out of the way, for 91L to become a Hurricane, but that is a long shot. It all depends if the anticyclone hangs around for a while, which is looking likely, but we'll see.
As far as the track goes, it's late October and Novemeber, for those who really think this will make it to the Western Caribbean, are you serious?? My two cents is that it will slow down south of the Islands and do an Omar (2008). Although the EURO has a totally different scenario, which is possible. Misses the troughs, but the storm would have to be weak, which is not panning out well enough for that solution to verify, it's possible though. There are possibilities, but we can't really pinpoint an actual path yet.
91L is not going to be anything until he can get a decent LLC developing, along with any type of CDO development to with it. As of right now his upperlevel atmoshpere is very impressive but his bark is worse than his bite, until he tightens up that circulation. This is a very large storm.
1356. JRRP


I have no idea where its going.... did anyone call and ask Reed???
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tough call.


fantastic banding
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have no idea where its going.... did anyone call and ask Reed???


Your being a bit childish, I was just giving my two cents on the invest.
Just by looking at visible you can see that its still pretty broad.

Quoting reedzone:


Your being a bit childish, I was just giving my two cents on the invest.


Check the time.. I posted it about the same time you did... I don't even see yours.. it was meant in humour. If you take stuff to seriously.. you'll go nuts.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just by looking at visible you can see that its still pretty broad.


i agree, still is pretty broad. but once it tightens up... it will get going quickly, just by looking at its structure.
Quoting Neapolitan:
To those second-guessing the NHC, you should write to tell them you want to see more of the mets there doing this:



Bahaha! Good one.
Lucky thing I swallowed the sip of coffee I just took before I saw that. Nearly had to clean my monitor.
1364. Seastep
ASCAT did update. LLC is at about 8N/58W. Not under the higher level structure. 91L is going to have to build a new LLC, or it will have to jump, imo. Moved from about 7N/54W last night at 8pm EDT to about 8N/58W at 9am EDT this morning. Not definitive with the new ASCAT, but that's my take.

Last night



This morning

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


A fish?

The people of Hispaniola would probably disagree.



Well, don't you know there's no other land besides the CONUS? Everyone else simply lives on makeshift rafts....
Quoting weatherman12345:

i agree, still is pretty broad. but once it tightens up... it will get going quickly, just by looking at its structure.

And I don't see much in the way of inhibiting that from occurring once it does get more condense at the core. AC sitting on top, low shear, and distance from the coast should be enough (assuming it stays on it's current course which I think it will).
12z Dynamic.
1369. hydrus
Quoting Orcasystems:


I wouldn't even guess.. but I am surprised none of the Florida wishcasters have not jumped all over it... or said...OMG its might go through box #1 & #2, but the day is early.
Future Tomas will strengthen to cat-5 status moving W-NW and then stall over Miami for a week...j.k...... really..j.k...Looks like Northern South America will see some heavy rain..
2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 29/1530Z
D. 09.5N 57.0W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 30/1200Z NEAR 11N 62W.
orcasystems,

thanks for this update. please correct me if I am wrong but did the models shown in the graphic take a bit of a westward trend?
From a Microwave standpoint, I've seen many tropical storms with less organization. All we need now is a confirmation of a well defined surface circulation.

Quoting Seastep:
ASCAT did update. LLC is at about 8N/58W. Not under the higher level structure. 91L is going to have to build a new LLC, or it will have to jump, imo. Moved from about 7N/54W last night at 8pm EDT to about 8N/58W at 9am EDT this morning. Not definitive with the new ASCAT, but that's my take.

Last night



This morning


Based upon that data, then it's a bit south of the upper-level AC based on the position on the 12z CIMSS Shear Analysis Map
actually there 3 minutes apart not same time
Quoting kshipre1:
orcasystems,

thanks for this update. please correct me if I am wrong but did the models shown in the graphic take a bit of a westward trend?


From the previous one... no.
The tracks have been shifting a bit more to the north with each run... and the northern turn has been happening earlier.
NEW BLOG!!!!!
1379. Seastep
.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can you belive what the weather channel said in their tropical update?."All is quite in the carribean and rest of atlantic".Do they not see the storm near the lesser antillies?
I'm here in Barbados and we did not know about it either
Quoting cat5hurricane:

The possibilities are quite broad. The 06Z GFS is taking it near DR.
Or as many of the models show he might reach La Española and take a Lenny turn ENE.... "
Quoting barbadosjulie:
Heavy rain has begun in Barbados...with periodical high gusts
Hey Julie where in the island are you?
Quoting jurakantaino:
Or as many of the models show he might reach La Española and take a Lenny turn ENE.... "

Yep. Bit early to pinpint exact specifics. I think once recon data and analysis gets digested and looked at this afternoon, the 4pm EDT full advisory well tell quite a bit more.