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An early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:12 PM GMT on May 31, 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.

The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Jeff Masters
Joplin, MO
Joplin, MO

Tornado Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. ncstorm
well when donald trump and sarah palin discuss the fact of a double ticket for a presidential run over a slice of pizza, then you know all H*ll is about to break loose for hurricane season..
checking in from lurkdom for Day 1 of the official season and to see the little blob that could. Hi Everyone.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:




Prepare for what? Rain, lightning and wind we have gotten every summer afternoon since I can remember over 40 years


My God, man!!! Have you no shame?!?!?! Do you know how many lives are lost every year in scattered showers?!?!?!
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It depends whereabout in the Gulf it heads. If it stays north, things could look good for it; south, it will get ripped up into tiny little pieces.



Thanks. I'm in the Gulf, on a drilling rig, we're about 50 miles southeast of Venice, La. I don't think this one will have us rigging down and evacuating though. But I'm not a forecaster so I have to ask.
I've double-boarded all my windows and removed all loose items from my yard (including leaves).

I already have my generator running in case we lose power. The generator is in my living room so that I don't have to go outside in 93L to refuel.

I've drawn up a crude last will and testament on the magnetic notepad on my refrigerator.

Am I forgetting anything?
93L approaching North Florida

Quoting BobinTampa:
I've double-boarded all my windows and removed all loose items from my yard (including leaves).

I already have my generator running in case we lose power. The generator is in my living room so that I don't have to go outside in 93L to refuel.

I've drawn up a crude last will and testament on the magnetic notepad on my refrigerator.

Am I forgetting anything?


booze?!?!
93L Rain coming into View..

2009. hydrus
Quoting BobinTampa:
I've double-boarded all my windows and removed all loose items from my yard (including leaves).

I already have my generator running in case we lose power. The generator is in my living room so that I don't have to go outside in 93L to refuel.

I've drawn up a crude last will and testament on the magnetic notepad on my refrigerator.

Am I forgetting anything?
Call your relatives and write your social on the inside of your right hand...:)
Quoting presslord:


booze?!?!


God, I'm an idiot!!! That is a perfect example of why this board is so valuable.

Off to the liquor store...
Quoting BobinTampa:
I've double-boarded all my windows and removed all loose items from my yard (including leaves).

I already have my generator running in case we lose power. The generator is in my living room so that I don't have to go outside in 93L to refuel.

I've drawn up a crude last will and testament on the magnetic notepad on my refrigerator.

Am I forgetting anything?


yep Try Not To Make A Fool Out Of Yourself relax this is not a TS or Hurricane or even a TD so to try and keep your head
Quoting BobinTampa:


God, I'm an idiot!!! That is a perfect example of why this board is so valuable.

Off to the liquor store...


we are all here to serve
2016. IKE

Quoting BobinTampa:
I've double-boarded all my windows and removed all loose items from my yard (including leaves).

I already have my generator running in case we lose power. The generator is in my living room so that I don't have to go outside in 93L to refuel.

I've drawn up a crude last will and testament on the magnetic notepad on my refrigerator.

Am I forgetting anything?
Shower curtains up?
2017. HCW
Latest Model runs from the NHC have a great day :)

2018. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


Scattered Showers are no joke.

There is a reason Dr Forbes is developing his exclusive SCATSHOW:CON system for TWC.
Good morning Jeff. I will now pray to the shrine to stave off 93L.. Even tho Taz may report me in an effort to have me banned.
2020. Bitmap7

Quoting IKE:

Shower curtains up?


I've enclosed the entire house in tropical fish shower curtains.
Wow, wake up and we got the orange crayon out already for the start of the season. That MCS has been presistant.
I'm just so glad The Carolinas were spared!!!!!
Quoting BobinTampa:


I've enclosed the entire house in tropical fish shower curtains.

Then you should be good to go.
2026. hydrus
Quoting BobinTampa:


I've enclosed the entire house in tropical fish shower curtains.
Those curtains should be a mandatory part of the building code in hurricane prone regions....
Quoting presslord:


My God, man!!! Have you no shame?!?!?! Do you know how many lives are lost every year in scattered showers?!?!?!
2029. FLdewey
Quoting presslord:
I'm just so glad The Carolinas were spared!!!!!

Wait...

There's two of them now?
are we going to have invest 94L TONIGHT!!..


Wind shear decreasing pretty good in the SW Caribbean now.
2034. Bitmap7
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Wind shear decreasing pretty good in the SW Caribbean now.


Yup should see an anticyclone soon too.
So what's the deal with 93L? We sure could use the rain here on the Panhandle.
Good Morning........See a "blob" of rain headed towards the Florida Space Coast.....They need the rain and the Shuttle Endeavor is on the ground as of yesterday so good timing........
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Wind shear decreasing pretty good in the SW Caribbean now.

Also giving oppurnity for 93L
AL 93 2011060112 BEST 0 303N 785W 25 1014 LO
2039. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


The Chart does clearly show that WE WILL get at least one named system on June 1st. It is a done deal, PUT IT ON THE BOARD!
It looks like the Cape Canaveral area in about 4 to 5 hours. Its been a pleasure learning and blogging with all of you...I will see you in the afterlife...And remember, there is no fear, only courage...Sniffle, snurf...cry
2040. Jax82
I see Jacksonville is in the 'bullseye' of this beast lurking off the coast. I will try to stay logged on as long as possible today to give you minute by minute updates of its landfall. ;-)

Oh, and an invest hitting Florida on Day 1 of hurricane season? Hopefully not a sign of things to come.
Quoting Kristina40:
So what's the deal with 93L? We sure could use the rain here on the Panhandle.


if you haven't already evacuated...you're just gonna have to shelter in place....Good luck!!!
2042. wxhatt
93L tries for a landing?
I Dream of Jeanie Link
1014mb? If it ever got upgraded, they'd have to call it 'Tropical High One'.
Quoting presslord:


if you haven't already evacuated...you're just gonna have to shelter in place....Good luck!!!


Ah, I'm ready. Pantry is full of Ramen, the good kind with little pieces of shrimp and vegetables in them ;)
Could this be another Edouard (2002)?
2047. Bitmap7
Quoting Cotillion:
1014mb? If it ever got upgraded, they'd have to call it 'Tropical High One'.


It was 1017 last night
2048. hydrus
Quoting presslord:


if you haven't already evacuated...you're just gonna have to shelter in place....Good luck!!!
This 93L formed off the Carolinas didnt it.?..:)...Good morning Press...bbl..
2049. IKE

Quoting BobinTampa:


I've enclosed the entire house in tropical fish shower curtains.
lol......

It's getting close.....just want to tell you all....good luck...we're all counting on you.....


Morning and hello to all been lurking in the background, how s every one nice to see that most everyone is still on, i see a lot of pots rattling and clouds a coming we all need some rain, so i say bring it on Mr Rainman.
It looks like a wet scenario for the next few days in most of the Caribbean.Let's see if some of this falls in the Caymans,but on the other hand,Haiti doesn't need more calamities in the form of flooding.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
559 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. UPPER RIDGE
OVER MEXICO HAS STARTED ITS NORTHWARD MIGRATION INTO THE
USA...MAKING WAY TO A RETROGRESSING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
USA/GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS FLORIDA-THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE NOW EXTENDS BETWEEN 80W/85W TO 40W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 27N...ENVELOPING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AT LOW LEVELS...THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ
REMAINS NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION...AS IT EXTENDS
ACROSS COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 82W/83W TO
18N...WITH A DISORGANIZED LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W FAVORS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA/ABC ISLES AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH VALUES CONCENTRATING ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITH A MOIST TONGUE STRETCHING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A DRY SLOT OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES IS QUICKLY EBBING AS TROPICAL WAVE
ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

AT UPPER LEVELS...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TUTT ALOFT SETTLING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. BUT...THIS IS TO ONLY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS
IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER/STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE.

AT LOW/MID LEVELS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES IS
TO VEER FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES IN A MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH PWAT FORECAST
TO REMAIN ABOVE 50MM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FURTHERMORE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
ACROSS JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. EXPECTING DENSE
HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM HISPANIOLA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL
HEATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT IMPACT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON THE MEDIUM RANGE...EVOLUTION ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON
AMPLIFYING TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF IT
DEVELOPS AS THE GFS IS SUGGESTING...SUNDAY-MONDAY COULD BECOME
MORE ACTIVE.

TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0.........That normally is TD level.


AL 93 201106011145 DVTS CI 3000N 7880W 30 TAFB 2020 ///// T DT=2.5 BASED ON 0.5 BANDING
Morning All.

93L in a bit of shear, is there really 93L, lol. I can't find any official products on it except for model runs. ehhh, oh well?

Caribbean AOI hugging the coast of Nicaragua along 12.5N in more favorable shear. Surprised no 94L here yet.



by the way if any one has links to some of the weather/hurricane data sites please send them over to me, i upgraded my comp to win 7 and lost quite a lot of my links,
thanks,
David
Okay, now they say it's 1013mb:

AL, 93, 2011060112, , BEST, 0, 303N, 785W, 25, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

It's reached the average sea level pressure, well done 93L.
2058. IKE
See a definite spin near 13N and around 82W.
Kind of cool to see an Invest (about to hit the Gulf Stream) barrelling towards Florida on the first day of the season..Hopefully, it will just remain a much needed rain event but a good wake up call for things that may come to pass over the next few months.
Quoting DestinJeff:


now take the control stick and pull it back.

LOL
2061. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


now take the control stick and pull it back.
LOL!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

93L in a bit of shear, is there really 93L, lol. I can't find any official products on it except for model runs. ehhh, oh well?

Caribbean AOI hugging the coast of Nicaragua along 12.5N in more favorable shear. Surprised no 94L here yet.




Umm... According to the SHIPS intensity forecast, the current shear near 93L is 7 kts, and is favorable for development.
Link
XX/INV/93L
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0.........That normally is TD level.


AL 93 201106011145 DVTS CI 3000N 7880W 30 TAFB 2020 ///// T DT=2.5 BASED ON 0.5 BANDING

01/1145 UTC 30.4N 78.3W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic
A little different in the ssd site.
Quoting IKE:

LOL!
morning ike i can finally post the numbers

0/0/0/ continues
Iwas looking at the RGB loop and there is definately vorticity on that distubance by nicaragua, we could have something happening soon.
461

WHXX01 KWBC 011224

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1224 UTC WED JUN 1 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110601 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110601 1200 110602 0000 110602 1200 110603 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 30.3N 78.5W 29.3N 82.1W 28.5N 86.0W 28.0N 89.9W

BAMD 30.3N 78.5W 29.4N 81.6W 28.5N 84.3W 27.8N 87.0W

BAMM 30.3N 78.5W 29.5N 81.9W 28.7N 85.4W 28.3N 89.0W

LBAR 30.3N 78.5W 29.3N 81.8W 28.6N 84.8W 28.1N 87.7W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 34KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110603 1200 110604 1200 110605 1200 110606 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.6N 93.9W 32.8N 99.3W 37.0N 100.2W 40.0N 97.2W

BAMD 27.5N 90.1W 29.7N 96.1W 31.8N 99.2W 33.2N 99.4W

BAMM 28.4N 92.5W 31.0N 98.4W 33.9N 101.5W 36.3N 102.1W

LBAR 27.6N 90.9W 27.4N 96.3W 27.2N 99.1W 26.6N 100.1W

SHIP 44KTS 54KTS 61KTS 67KTS

DSHP 41KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 30.3N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 21KT

LATM12 = 32.2N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 234DEG SPDM12 = 22KT

LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 70.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


2068. IKE

641

WHXX04 KWBC 010538

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L



INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 1



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 33.0 73.6 210./15.9



STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 93 2011060112 BEST 0 303N 785W 25 1014 LO


Wow, 1014 is a 4mb drop on what the surface analysis charts were showing a few hours back.
2071. aquak9
I'm on the 8th floor by the river here in Jacksonville. I'll be ok. Thanks for all the kind thoughts!
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Umm... According to the SHIPS intensity forecast, the current shear near 93L is 7 kts, and is favorable for development.
Link



Shear maps are always a little speculative however, based on the image below, that is not 7kts of shear.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
641

WHXX04 KWBC 010538

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L



INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 1



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 33.0 73.6 210./15.9



STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


Haha, that went well.
2074. Jax82
I think 93L is smokin' something...it smells like a wildfire in jacksonville today.
the trouble with this 93l hitting florida is the possibilities of tonadoes, be safe guys.
if 93 L maintains it's convection and spin over the Florida peninsula...then we might have something to actually talk about in the GOM?
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Wow, 1014 is a 4mb drop on what the surface analysis charts were showing a few hours back.


They have since updated to 1013 mb, with an outside pressure of 1016 mb.
Quoting aquak9:
I'm on the 8th floor by the river here in Jacksonville. I'll be ok. Thanks for all the kind thoughts!


for God's sake, woman...stay away from the windows!!!!!!!!!!
2079. FLdewey
Quoting aquak9:
I'm on the 8th floor by the river here in Jacksonville. I'll be ok. Thanks for all the kind thoughts!

You have your hip waders at the ready?
2081. ricderr
hey...can we see the forecast cut and pasted on the doc's blog say every 5 minutes or so....
Water Temps plenty warm in the vicinity off the coast of St. Augustine; notice the wind gusts:

Station 41012
NDBC
Location: 30.041N 80.533W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 1 Jun 2011 11:50:00 UTC

Winds: NW (320) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 ktSignificant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (68)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.05 in and fallingAir Temperature: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 78.3 F

Isn't 93L the same energy that spawned the Joplin tornado?
Quoting IKE:

LOL!
Ike 93L might bring you some Rain. When was the last time a tropical entity made landfall near Jacksonville.... Not that often.
Quoting IKE:


Isn't she beautiful? We are so dry, and really need the rain.

M.
Jacksonville will escape fairly unscathed by what is a small and compact invest. Bullseye seems to be daytona beach...
Quoting SCwannabe:
if 93 L maintains it's convection and spin over the Florida peninsula...then we might have something to actually talk about in the GOM?


We do if SHIPS has anything to say about it.
Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Wed, Jun 01, 2011.

As of Wed, 01 Jun 2011 12:30:01 GMT
Awww 93L looks like it's trying to do a little spin before it comes ashore. What's the A name this year?
Quoting ricderr:
hey...can we see the forecast cut and pasted on the doc's blog say every 5 minutes or so....



I was thinking 2.5 based on how fast the blog is moving this morning. We don't want to miss anything.
2091. ricderr
if you haven't already evacuated...you're just gonna have to shelter in place....Good luck!!!

yes folks....25 kt winds.....falling leaves might ruin a hairdo....signs swaying back and forth may cause you to go crosseyed....rain flurries might fill flower pots to overflowing causing rivers on front porches....evacuate now...or face utter devastation :-)
Quoting FLdewey:

You have your hip waders at the ready?
Breaking News out of Florida.... All My Pony Shower curtains have been sold out at bed bath and beyond. Repeat... alll shower curtains have been sold out.
2094. Jax82
Could this be the start to the 'rainy season' here in FL? lol. After this ball of clouds moves through we have no chance of rain for another 5 days. :-\

Quoting DestinJeff:


make sure you have an axe handy. The flooding that will ensue from Scattered Showers may make it a necessary survival item.


I'm much more concerned about the wind...
2096. ricderr
you're right cyclonic.....i wasn't being thoughtful enough....has obama declared florida a disaster zone yet?
Quoting Kristina40:
Awww 93L looks like it's trying to do a little spin before it comes ashore. What's the A name this year?


Arlene.
Quoting 1992Andrew:
Jacksonville will escape fairly unscathed by what is a small and compact invest. Bullseye seems to be daytona beach...
Oh my lord... Get the president on the line.... And call me shirely.
2100. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
2063:

BREAKING NEWS: Giant cotton ball headed toward Florida coast.


Surely, this looks a lot bigger than the cotton ball.

2102. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning ike i can finally post the numbers

0/0/0/ continues
:)
93L Floater up.

93L
Quoting ricderr:
you're right cyclonic.....i wasn't being thoughtful enough....has obama declared florida a disaster zone yet?



He will be touring the devastation first thing tomorrow...can't miss a good campaign opportunity you know
Quoting aquak9:
I'm on the 8th floor by the river here in Jacksonville. I'll be ok. Thanks for all the kind thoughts!


you have my number...I'd be glad to hang on the phone with as you go through this nightmare...if it would give you some comfort...until the connection dies....
Floater for 93L



2108. ricderr
well boys and girls.....we have a 40 percent chance of rain today...might end 118 days of no precip....time for me to head to work
2109. IKE
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Ike 93L might bring you some Rain. When was the last time a tropical entity made landfall near Jacksonville.... Not that often.
True...it doesn't happen that often.


Quoting Jax82:
Could this be the start to the 'rainy season' here in FL? lol. After this ball of clouds moves through we have no chance of rain for another 5 days. :-\


SSHHHHH! I'm invoking.... now let's see, was that newt's eyes or gator teeth with the coffee beans... stir .. to the.. right... hmmmm..... cross my eyes and recite this thing two times sideways.......

Oh HECK! I'm just gonna go wash my car! Then that thing will HAVE to dump some rain on us for sure...
2111. Grothar
93L was over my house a few of days ago, now it's almost to Jacksonville that's just crazy.
Whats the shear forcast over the nothern Gulf the coming 2 days?
Quoting DestinJeff:


please, let's hope you are wrong and see that no cows are harmed.

STAY SAFE, cows!


Any Bets on where Jim Cantore is?
i hope you will be in high spirits like this when the real deal comes along

Nice little compact thunder storm their wonder if stired up some water spouts.

If Cantore hurries he can still make it in time for the landfall
2119. IKE
93L looks headed toward Daytona Beach,FL.....


Quoting IKE:
93L looks heading toward Daytona Beach,FL.....




Oh my God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Daytona Beach is expecting a storm surge of almost half an inch. A tiki hut near the sand with a thatched roof where people rent beach chairs has been evacuated. No, wait; it's just closed until after lunch. My bad.

Seriously, though, whatever precipitation Florida manages to wring out of 93L will be welcome. It's flying, though, so won't be with us long...
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Any Bets on where Jim Cantore is?


Swimming somewhere near the orange bit?
Quoting DestinJeff:


well I have a cotton ball right here, and when I put it to the screen it is the same size.


Whats the DOOMCON Level?




Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i hope you will be in high spirits like this when the real deal comes along


Too much time spent worrying when the real deals blow thru. Grab the high spirits while you can. There is a time for everything.
I'm outraged they made Aqua come in to work!!!! She should sue somebody!!!!!!!!!!!
Did you see it wobble just now?!?!?!?!?
I got a invest for my Birthday and on top of that its rained this morning . thank you Mother Nature
I'm pretty sure it's humping the ridge...
Quoting DestinJeff:
One can only hope that it is not landfalling during a high tide.


Don't park you lawn chair too close to the surf or you may be devastated by the Storm surge
2133. HCW
Quoting SCwannabe:
If Cantore hurries he can still make it in time for the landfall


Jim Cantorie will redirect the storm back out to sea cause he is the storm shield and has had only one storm in his long career with TWC
Quoting presslord:
Did you see it wobble just now?!?!?!?!?
no that was a wibble not a wobble
Quoting presslord:
Did you see it wobble just now?!?!?!?!?


Yes...it took a jog to the north...we better evacuate here in Charleston
Can you turn the cotton ball into bulls balls so that we can get some rain down south as well?
2138. Jax82
Quoting fatlady99:


SSHHHHH! I'm invoking.... now let's see, was that newt's eyes or gator teeth with the coffee beans... stir .. to the.. right... hmmmm..... cross my eyes and recite this thing two times sideways.......

Oh HECK! I'm just gonna go wash my car! Then that thing will HAVE to dump some rain on us for sure...


Dang, the same thing happens to you?! ;-)
Quoting presslord:
I'm pretty sure it's humping the ridge...
#

Definitely heading much further west than the NHC says. Models out to lunch.
Quoting presslord:
I'm pretty sure it's humping the ridge...


Thats Disgusting... 93L Do Not Hump the Ridge..
2142. Jax82
I think its forming an Eye!!!!! The NWS really messed this one up! Get on the ball NWS!!!!!!
2143. HCW
Quoting NavarreMark:


If he shows, they are doomed for sure.


Nope that means the storm will not hit them :) That 5'2 storm shield is very strong
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
#

Definitely heading much further west than the NHC says. Models out to lunch.


" No No... Silly Westcaster... i think its going to be a FISH! a FISH! I tell you"

lol
Anyone want to bet that at least one person on this blog will claim that 93L should have been named? I'm predicting it will happen by 2pm EST.
2150. IKE

Quoting jeffs713:
Anyone want to bet that at least one person on this blog will claim that 93L should have been named? I'm predicting it will happen by 2pm EST.
+1 or +100!
Quoting DestinJeff:


93L is an adolescent, it very well may be.


lol
Quoting sammywammybamy:


I especially like the happy face.... although I don't know as I would have put it over Macon.... :)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Looks like a run of the CMC.
After 5 position alterations to smooth the curve, and 2 Invest status alterations...
92L . . Low
What are the criteria that changes an Invest's status from a Disturbance to a Low?
Quoting DestinJeff:


here, here! The high spirits help just as much as physical preparation. (in addition to physical prep)

So do the distilled ones!

Come on rain, yeah spirits!
2158. HCW
What are the chances that we get some recon action on this system ?
2159. Grothar
They better hunker down.


Well....welcome back for another year of peek-a-boo.

Let the games with mother nature begin.
Best Buy? I thought it was Publix.

And in all fairness, there are several individuals that I suspect will be the one to break that particular seal.
Quoting fatlady99:


I especially like the happy face.... although I don't know as I would have put it over Macon.... :)


^ Agreed

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Looks like a run of the CMC.


^ Lol
I forgot my umbrella at home today so I just painted my entire body with Thompson's Water Seal.

It better rain now or I'm going to feel ridiculous.

2164. ricderr
Where's STORMTOP when we need him? this could hit new orleans as a cat 5
Hopefully 93L will swing well SW and get into central gulf, bring me rain on upper TX coast
Quoting Grothar:
They better hunker down.




I think i see a Pinhole Eye...

Anyone else see that Pinhole Eye?
Quoting BobinTampa:
I forgot my umbrella at home today so I just painted my entire body with Thompson's Water Seal.

It better rain now or I'm going to feel ridiculous.


I'd think that you would feel ridiculous regardless of the rain.

That said, please let us know how it works out with any sweat trying to get through the Thompson's water seal...
Quoting DestinJeff:
O.M.G.

when this thing passes into the GOM west of Tampa, look out. It will be like one of those little toys you put into water and it gets larrrrger. GOM SSTs are like JET FUEL!

Daytona, Orlando, Tampa ... STAY SAFE!
Those toys never worked for me... they either sank, or made a bunch of goo in the water.
Quoting jeffs713:
Those toys never worked for me... they either sank, or made a bunch of goo in the water.


Probably similar to 93L then.
2171. Grothar
Some mid level spinning east of Nicaragua
cant believe the carribean blob didnt even get a yellow circle jees
2175. 7544
morning all looks like 93l is speeding heading to daytona any chance it just might stall ?
Quoting Grothar:
They better hunker down.




Hunker-down?.. I'm charging camera batteries..


Here's a video I ran across of a mare & foal that survived one of those huge tornado.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hopefully 93L will swing well SW and get into central gulf, bring me rain on upper TX coast


The latest models have it doing just that. Some rain would be nice. Don't know about development.

Link
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
cant believe the carribean blob didnt even get a yellow circle jees


It won't be a cyclone for at least 48 hours, no rush.
2179. geepy86
It's getting cloudy here. I can't take anymore, where's the booze!
Found it : )
wow looks like fl will get rain today~~~!!! look at theat thing how odd is that ?? a little ball fire
Quoting geepy86:
It's getting cloudy here. I can't take anymore, where's the booze!
Found it : )


Drink your worries away.
93L About to Crash into Florida's Space Coast.



2184. Bayside
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The latest models have it doing just that. Some rain would be nice. Don't know about development.

Link


Well, I think the XTRP has it right
Quoting Grothar:
They better hunker down.




I saw a Pin Hole Eye :)
2186. kwgirl
Good morning everyone. Thanks for the chuckles. I always like to start off the day with a laugh. I sure am glad that rain is headed for mid Florida. We had our first frog strangler here in Key West yesterday. It was wonderful to smell the rain on the wind. Per the local paper, it had rained .25 inches in March(if I remember correctly) and 1.25 inches in Jan. So we are a bit behind in rainfall. I am wishcasting 93L to linger enough over central Florida to give everyone a good soaking and then on to Texas where they need it most. Of course, with the wishcasting comes the hopecasting that is is nothing more than a good soaking when it hits Texas.
Quoting BobinTampa:
I forgot my umbrella at home today so I just painted my entire body with Thompson's Water Seal.

It better rain now or I'm going to feel ridiculous.



ROFDWL!!!!! Thank you for making my tummy hurt from laughing so hard. Now to clean the coffee off the laptop screen!!! :-D
New Blog
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. Thanks for the chuckles. I always like to start off the day with a laugh. I sure am glad that rain is headed for mid Florida. We had our first frog strangler here in Key West yesterday. It was wonderful to smell the rain on the wind. Per the local paper, it had rained .25 inches in March(if I remember correctly) and 1.25 inches in Jan. So we are a bit behind in rainfall. I am wishcasting 93L to linger enough over central Florida to give everyone a good soaking and then on to Texas where they need it most. Of course, with the wishcasting comes the hopecasting that is is nothing more than a good soaking when it hits Texas.


Good morning kwgirl. Thanks for the wish/hopecasting. :)
2190. HCW
2191. kwgirl
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Drink your worries away.
No, that is called courage, liquid courage. I know, I have had to have a dose of it once in a while.
NEW BLOG
Henry Margusity:
"System coming into the central Florida coast around Noon has winds over 35 kts and heavy thunderstorms. It may be like a depression or weak tropical storm when it comes in this afternoon."
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=4 1009

WNW on the buoy east of Cape Canaveral. Definite rotation.
2196. JRRP
{
Raining cats and dogs here in Orlando now.
It's offical - Hurricane Season:
1. XTRP has it right...
2. Is that a pin-hole eye?