WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

An early and vicious tornado season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:22 PM GMT on March 05, 2007

It's been a vicious and early tornado season in the U.S. this year. Already, two major tornado outbreaks have killed 20 people each--the Central Florida tornado event of February 2, and last week's swarm of at least 35 tornadoes in the Southeast. In addition, an outbreak of 10 tornadoes hit the deep south February 12, killing one person in New Orleans. Only one year in recorded history has had more tornado deaths so early in the year--1949, when a tornado in Warren, Arkansas killed 55 people on January 3. The 45 fatalities in 2007 is close to the 3-year average of 46 fatalities observed for the entire year, and the 151 tornadoes observed so far in 2007 is about double what is usually observed.

Damage surveys are still being done of the devastation from last week's tornado outbreak, but it appears that five strong EF-3 tornadoes with winds of 136-165 mph touched down. Three of these twisters were killers, including the tornado that hit Enterprise, Alabama, killing eight students at the high school. The two EF-3 tornadoes observed during the Central Florida tornado event bring this year's total of EF-3 twisters to seven, a very high number of these strong tornadoes for so early in the year. What's causing such an early and severe tornado season? Well, the Central Florida outbreak can be blamed on El Nio. The other two outbreaks occurred when El Nio was suffering a rapid demise, so we'll have to blame them on unusually early spring-like weather in the U.S. With the peak months of tornado season still to come, let's hope for an unusally early end to tornado season as well!

Jeff Masters
lady lake 9
lady lake 9
Westwego Tornado Damage
Westwego Tornado Damage

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Lets hope alright..
I truly hope that southeast Alabama gets relief from this pattern. Seems this week the relief is in the forecast - no wed, thur preparatoins being announced.
Hey, yes hope the SEVERE WEATHER SEASON ENDS EARLY THIS YEAR BECAUSE IN JUST 3 MONTHS WILL BE PAYING ATTETION TO THE ATLANTIC FOR ACTION, AND TO ME ITS NOT SHAPING UP TO BE A GOOD SEASON!
Stay Alert..Stay Prepared this Spring.Purchase a NOAA Alert Radio. 7
Good Morning, I was just wondering when does the new TSR come out?
The last TSR came out Feb 5 I thought it would come out today or am I wrong?
It'll be out sometime today.BBL
TSR noon release EST
Patrap: Thank You.
I think at least it does..Thats was a nice thing you did to purchase that NOAA radio for your daughters High School.
You stepped up while others just Ho-Hummed it aside.You to be commended.Thanks
catastropheadjusters header in her Blog...My heart goes out to all those in Enterprise,AL I really hate that had to happen. I think that all schools should be required to have a NOAA Radio but they don't. I know my daughter school has one know cause I bought one the other day and took it up there and gave it to them. I just hope they use it. I didn't mind cause at least know I know she'll be safe to a certain point. The principal even said she didn't understand why they aren't required to have one, they have to wait on a phone call. That just doesn't even sound right. It's awful that the parents have to buy one but that's fine, I'd rather be safe than sorry also it will help them during Hurricane Season, at least they can listen.
And it's not looking good at all! :-O
Progressive,
Thanks for the TSR link.
Oh boy....the Atlantic may be busy.
I agree that a weather radio is a valuable resource, not only for a school, but for everyone. I commend you for purchasing one for your daughter's school, and will be doing the same for my son's school. Thursday was a frightening day, as we received word via radio that our children were all huddled in the hallways of the local schools. Sad, sad day in Enterprise, AL. I hope that those folks are able to recover, both physically and emotionally.
On another, yet related note, I spent the weekend in NOLA, as my wife and I were both participating in a wedding at Trinity Episcopal Church. I was able to tour the tornado damaged areas, and found the Westwego area pictured above to be the hardest hit. On the south side of the expressway, there are about eight blocks that contain severe damage to several houses on each side of the street. I was able to get some photos, and will post them in my pictures section ASAP. The damage was incredible, as most of the affected houses were totally destroyed, like they exploded. The houses that I saw damaged in the Uptown area weren't nearly as badly damaged, like it skipped over the area, causing light to moderate damage.(Except for the house that's leaning on my friends house, the one who got married) Of course down there, it's hard to tell what's Katrina damage, and what's tornado damage.
The wedding reception was held at City Park's Botanical Garden. It was great to see tourists everywhere, and the park looked much better than I expected. Spent some time in the French Quarter, and I must say, it is alive and well again. Here's to NOLA recovery!
The NOLA tornado damage photos about which I spoke earlier are now in the "My photos" area. Forgive me if they aren't very clear, as they were taken with the camera I had with me at the time, my Motorola Razor phone! It's still quite easy to see the massive destruction to this neighborhood.

Also, can someone tell me how to post a photo on the blog so you don't have to go to my photos? If Taz can get youtube up, surely I can do a picture! Good job, Taz!
Thank You Patrap and Jake, oh yeah I'm a girl. I just thought I'd let cha know.
Is everyone gone?
Good afernoon just finished reading TSR'S lastest update it seems they have increased there percentage for an active 2007 hurricane season from 60% above the norm Feb forecast to 75% above the norm March forecast.With La nina around an active season number wise continues to look likely but we still have to wait to see how other factors end up shapeing up for this season.Quick examples how will the TUTT and ULL factor be and the all important SAL.Its a waiting game now.Adrian

17/9/4 TSR March Forcast
Hey everybody, WOW JUST READ THE NEW TSR UPDATE THEY HAVE INCREASED THEIR PERCENTAGES AND NUMBER OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS 17/9/4.
Hey H23 Check your WUmail.
what TSR? link? the # of storm may keep going up
Taz here is the link to tropical storm risk visit there website and read there updates.They make seasonal forcasts for the atlantic basin.Its also updated monthly.
thanks 23
do we have a higher ch of a land falling hurricane this year ????
TAZ-Great videos in your blog. Enjoyed checking them out.

Catadjuster-Check your blog. I had a querstion for you.(Has nothing to do with you being a girl, by the way!)
Actually yes with La Nina around it usually amounts to favorable conditions across the atlantic and increases the number of systems they may develope.Keep in mind these are only predictions and could be off but remember its not the numbers of tropical systems that develope that matters its the ones that actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.Adrian
If I remember the section correctly Taz, there is an 87% chance of a US Landfalling Hurricane.
You're right, Adrian. 1992 wasn't all that active, but you won't convince anyone who lived through Andrew of that! It only takes one storm to make it a bad year.
jake436 thanks and you can all ways drop me a commet in my blog too
wow that is up from what?
d


It's unusual that the shear in W Carribean has increased but the shear in the Mid Atlantic has dropped
81 Feb and 85 in March! And that is probability of being above average not a percent chance.
nop you got it mix up

Carribean wind shear has drop and the shear in the Mid Atlantic has gone up


i see olny 10 to 20kt of shear in the Carribean

lol
Both of these maps can never be trusted
this been a round for a few days and with the low shear a round it my have a ch

lol
0% chance you mean
hello guys.Taz,I told you yesterday,that isn't even a wave,it's a trough.Development will not occur.
ok so weatherboykris whats new with you no oh lol
With the peak months of tornado season still to come, let's hope for an unusally early end to tornado season as well!

With the rapid onset on La Nina, I have a really bad feeling... here is why (the last strong La Nina was in 1998-1999):

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.

La Nina causes a colder-than-normal jet stream over the continental United States, which mixes with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico to produce ideal tornado conditions. Scientists studying global climate change warn that more extreme El Nino and La Nina conditions can be expected in the future, bringing more extreme weather patterns as well.


That was also the last F5 tornado as well...
can you give me a feed back Please and tell me how you like them thanks i add some more

Link
HEY JAKE: I seen your question I havent heard of anyone being deployed have you?
Not yet. My brother is a staffer for SF, and he works cat. He usually lets me know if anyone is being deployed, how many, who they work for, etc..., but he is off today. He's gonna check tomorrow, which is probably when the big push, if neccessary, will be made.
Hello everyone... Seems like we've got some new faces. =D Welcome.

Anyways... Doesn't anyone else but me find it a bit odd that ENSO completely reversed two times in the course of one year? Something fishy is going on... (no pun intended). Could anyone whos more informed than I explain this oddity to me?
No one can explain this oddity..it is what you called it..an oddity that defies explanation.It has never happened before.
It has been the dryest rainy season in So Cal to date.

Also very warm weather today. It was 87 where I was at. I would love just one more day of cooler weather.
Outlooks don't look that good if you want cooler weather:



Or rain for that matter - unless you live in Alaska (colder than normal) or the Pacific NW and upper Midwest/Great Lakes region (wetter than normal). On the other hand, the warmer temperatures here certainly are welcome after a colder than normal February.
Jake you still here?
The recent EH2R update doesn't look promising either..

2007 spring projection. What's the score?

Early data is in, from 20 observations, it is customary to send news from the atmosphere thanks to the sun. Average or single compression sizes 27%-24%-17% for 2005-06 and 2007 respectively (1 to 5 degrees). 2007 wins. More importantly, it is early, the sun disc sizes will expand further. Making the spring of 2007 warmer than the previous 2 already well known years. Another nascent method is still showing greater heat level for the beginning of 2007 as well.

WD Feb 25, 2007


Also I checked the sites that put out the peliminary monthly Temp stats today for Febuary's #'s, should be out~ isn't...
Posted By: weatherboykris at 11:06 PM GMT on March 05, 2007.

No one can explain this oddity..it is what you called it..an oddity that defies explanation.It has never happened before.


It has never happened since we started recording ocean temperatures out there. (at least to my knowledge.)

That doesn't AT ALL mean that it hasn't happened before. For how long have we REALLY been able to monitor el nino? We've known about it for centuries, but our monitoring system is, what, 60 years old or so? (just a guess...)
The recent EH2R update doesn't look promising either.......

I think that that might change soon since La Nina cools the earth down due to large amounts of cold water being upwelled (the CPC said that the La Nina early last year kept temperatures down, depite the fact that it lasted for only a few months and El Nino conditions lasted longer). On the other hand, 1998 was the hottest year on record (depending on what data you use; 2005 is either tied, warmer or cooler), yet it had a La Nina for most of the time.
CaffineHog~ Good ENSO monitering started in 1950. '63-64 pulled a similar event to what we are seeing now.

Michael~ I certainly hope the summer outlooks & reality has a good bit of below normal temps in it. But by what you & I just posted spring isn't looking too promising.
Michael~ oops finally had a chance to look at your all big, that's like thru 14 days on the temps, so my assuming you had posted anything about about spring was all wrong.. Looked up the Spring outlook~ no blue at all:(
George is now forcasted to reach CAT5 intensity!


Catastrophe Adjuster, you have mail.
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT!

and may be the 1st name storm if the year wish would be cool
No,Taz,not named.
they name SUBTROPICAL storms too you no
Yes,but this won't be strong enough to be named.A depression at best.
Tropical Depression at 10N 144E or east of Yap moving slowly.
Where is this tropical depression headed?
Into the far north Atlantic to die.If it forms,that is.May not,may not even be tropical.Just a model forecast.
speaking of Tropical Storm Risk...shouldn't these guys have been fired after the past 2 seasons...they were only off by 14 storms in 2005..and off by 4 in the average ten storm season of 2006 helped a little by the NHC naming a subtropical storm after the fact...what's worse is that they actually try to predict U.S. landfalls months in advance...I recall the NHC and others not being able to predict Ernesto would hit Haiti 12 HOURS in advance...I can't believe a company would pay these guys and base their operations on what amounts to be nothing more than an educated guess...I could think of much better ways to throw my money away...
they were only off by 14 storms in 2005..and off by 4 in the average ten storm season of 2006

Maybe Gray/CSU deserves to be fired more??? They forecast 17 storms for last year...

LOL.... It is all part of forecasting... many got egg in their faces last year and 2005...
Locals in West Palm say the ACE index could surpass the 700 mark by the weekend! 800 is desert like conditions. 2 fires going locally right now, send some rain.
Hi wind sheer rips the top off of hurricanes, but does it help tornado formation?
hey. was just wondering jeff, when your blog about comparing the sst's of 05 and the begining of this year, was coming out.
Asymmetric warm core...that's subtropical.


And yes...wind shear is essential to tornado formation.
weatherboykris - big enough to get a name?
Probably not Doc.Maybe a subtropical depression at best.
And going off into the North Atlantic at that.
I'm having a hard time getting excited over this STS~ Last week the gfs had at 1 point up to 3 just as small, long lived but warm core storms for the E Pacific & nothing happened..
A foo-foo system..LOL!
GOM SSTs animated forecast...Link
Anyone have a picture or two of George? Is he still forcasted to be a cat 5?
Afternoon. Temp here up to 90 F now, and its still early. Visibility down to 6.3 miles with Sahara dust and smoke. Not nice at all.....
Afternoon, George still has a forecast of becoming Cat 5
......and humidity at 38 % is as low as I've seen it..........
CIMSS MIMIC George...Vmax..66kntsLink
that's insane they're saying Cat 5.It's having too much trouble reconsolidating it's inner core.
This forecast looks rreasonable...not much stregthening.


what'd you post?
I previewed a comment i was about to post but then i didn't want to post it and i couldn't think of anything else to say.
Florida KBDI (Keetch Byram Drought Index)
Florida KBDI
oh,ok TS2.
A story that ran soon after Ivan in 04.Eerily predicted the disaster 11months later.Link
hey does anyone know where i can either find links or web sites to years past sst's-please no one correct my grammer-LOLOLOLOLOLOL. peace todd
LSU SSTs page...may help ya..Link
98. Inyo
Florida is in a drought also?
A bad one.
Patrap..yes, the bowl was filled very slowly, and that's why only a few thousand deaths. Had more force slapped Pontchartrain and opened the levees along thousand foot breaches it would have flooded New Orleans in a couple hours. In that case there might have been houses (and folks) swirling around at fifty miles an hour.
101. Alec
bye guys....admitted lurker...
The Americus, GA. hospital tornado damage photo Jeff just added.. the building is missing chunks.

Asian air pollution affecting weather
(highlights)

Asia's growing air pollution - billowing plumes of soot, smog and wood smoke - is making the Pacific region cloudier and stormier, disrupting winter weather patterns along the West Coast and into the Arctic, researchers reported Monday. Carried on prevailing winds, the industrial outpouring of dust, sulfur, carbon grit and trace metals from booming Asian economies is having an intercontinental cloud-seeding effect, the researchers reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study is the first large-scale analysis to draw a link between Asian air pollution and the changing Pacific weather patterns. 'The pollution transported from Asia makes storms stronger and deeper and more energetic,' said lead author Renyi Zhang at Texas A&M University. 'It is a direct link from large-scale storm systems to [human-produced] pollution.' Satellite measurements reveal that high-altitude storm clouds over the northern Pacific have increased up to 50% over the last 20 years as new factories, vehicles and power plants in China and India spew growing amounts of microscopic pollutant particles into the air. The resulting changes have altered how rain droplets form and helped foster the creation of imposing formations over the northern Pacific known as deep convective clouds. The clouds create powerful updrafts that spawn fiercer thunderstorms and more intense rainfall, particularly during the winter, the researchers said.

On any spring or summer day, almost a third of the air high over Los Angeles, San Francisco and other California cities can be traced directly to Asia, researchers said.


Hey Alec:) You do more than lurk here come season. Enjoy the Spring Break.
A visual show of how the water came in and when each breach occured..during Katrina Link
correcto franck..thankfully..She didnt slide ANY more west.Or we could have seen as you mention.
105. Inyo
southern California is in a drought period too, despite all that Asian smog.. in some places, it is the driest winter on record. of course, 3 years ago was the wettest or second wettest year on record, but extremes tend to cluster.
Miss River Ferry Crossing Live linkie..Link
thanks patrap and kris for those links. wow, its seems the water in caribbean is alot warmer now than in 2005 and 2006. i cant fathom what that means for the upcoming hurricane season. thats the place that fueled Ivan into a monster. its also the place where Wilma was born. Jeanne, Charley, Rita and Katrina where started so close to the caribbean that im pretty sure thats where they got their fuel to get them going. 6 out 7 major storms(Fransis being the 7th) in a 3 year period, had some connection to the carribbean. plus, the loop current in the gulf gets feed from the caribbean current. that just adds more fuel to the fire! i think we need to focus closer to home enstead of the atlantic. how many times have i heard that storms dont usually make it all the way across the atlantic(some do) and how many times have i heard that the african dust helps suppress the storms. i read and learn alot about the atlantic side of the stoms, but theres not really much talk about the caribbean side and how it pumps out storm after storm. its funny, something pops up in the caribbean and everyone is so shocked and suprised and "oh my god where did this moster come from?"it happens in the atlantic and its like oh ok. its kinda like they expect it from the ocean, not the caribbean. i see that attitude in locals in key west, scientist and metorologist. not that i know any scientist or metorologist, but i do read and hear alot. its just strange to me that nobody really pays attention to the caribbean! its also funny that nobody really knows that key west had 4 bad brushes with hurricanes and some stormy weather from a tropical storm in 2005. when has that ever happened. we are in the age of information and nobody knows a thing. i'm just as guilty!! i'm just more or less venting. its really nice to post stuff. i just became a member today and love it. this is a wonderful site. KEEP COMING BACK! peace todd
welcome to the blog world ding..
african dust helps suppress the storms

This is true mainly for the east Atlantic... but not so much in the west Atlantic (2005 had many storms form near land because of not so favorable conditions, including dust, in the eastern Atlantic). This is bad because storms develop near land.
Also, the Sahara dust ( and the huge pool of super-dry air associated with it ) is becoming more prevalent and stronger each year, as Africa blows away. Here in Trinidad the dust is affecting the weather locally, and is spreading further West each year. Humidity is 38 % today, here.
The dry air is certainly restricting storm development in the Tropical Atlantic, and in a few years will conceivably affect storm development in the Caribbean, and then in the Gulf too.
....anyone on ?
Tropical Cyclone Jacob [CAT 1]
12.8S 108.3E -- 45 knots 988 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
==============================

Tropical Cyclone Jacob [Category 1] is located 385 km southeast of Christmas Island and 1250 km east of Cocos Island and moving west-northwest at 6 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Jacob has developed to the southeast of Christmas Island, and it is moving to the west northwest. Though the system is not expected to intensify significantly, if the cyclone continues to move to the northwest then gales may develop at the Island late on Thursday afternoon or during Friday.


Current Watch and Warnings
==========================
A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for Christmas Island.
pottery...didn't realize the dry/dust situation was so bad. My oldest sister lives in the lower Keys. Her husband is a champ sportfishing captain down there. He has remarked about how Keys waters have not cooled enough this Winter. The dryness in south Florida is definitely getting serious too.
Hi Franck. Yeah, and it has not got alot of press. But last season the trop. waves coming off Africa had all conditions favourable for development, over and over again, and they kept getting swallowed by the dry air.The only ones to survive were north or west of the dust / dry air.

Here it is noticably dusty, and for weeks at a time visibility is down to 5 miles. During those periods, the temp is up by a degree or two, as well.
Hi Skye. How are you today?

Question : Dr. M said a while ago that funding was not available for some research that was being done, including research into SAL and its effect on trop. storm dev.

Do you know if that has changed ? Is the research on, off, or what ?
Skye, I read your good link of a few mins, ago, but there were no specifics, so I'm not sure..........
Franck, also note that in 2005 ( the most active year for storms in many a year, Katrina, Rita ) there was MORE dust than ever before, in the Caribbean. So do we realy know what we are talking about ? Sometimes I doubt myself too.

But is it a case of energies building, and having to be released at some point?
. Does a quiet Atlantic season like last year, result in a crazy west Pacific season like this year ?

Maybe one day I'll figure it all out..........
And the east Pacific was pretty wild too. How many times did storms approach Baja ?
Eh? What ? Well, hear this. If you guys are going to be scarping off to eat your suppers and you expect me to monitor the global atmosphere all by myself,well, ok then. Bah !
Because everybody knows that if something is not observed, then it cant possibly exist. So rest easy, its all being observed to the left, observed to the right, ect.
( Ive talked myself into a feeling of ultimate observer here, and I just know that if I go away, everything will certainly fall apart) HELLLLLP!!!!!!!
The damm thing is, that I know you are sitting there snikkering and watching me suffer. And the first person to own up gets a prize.
Alright, I give in. What do I get?
124. V26R
Damn I can never be first
Because everybody knows that if something is not observed, then it cant possibly exist.

LOL... Is this related to the saying that goes "if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound?".
Can anyone send me a link that has water temps for the past few years on a month to month basis for the Atlantic/Gulf Coast? So many people say the water is warmer then usual, but what is usual?
I know that this site has SST anomaly maps, although I am not sure where actual SST maps can be found.
Thank you Michael, I have to admit, I really don't understand maps unless they have charts and arrows and stuff...has to be real easy...You know...March 30, 00,01,02...then the temps...
By the way, Michael, I like your WunderBlog
Here is the offical SST average by month for the NAtl, SAtl & Tropical atlantic & their respective anomilies. The anomilies tell you how much above or below "normal" things are. All in all, comparing Feb '07 to Feb '06 & '05, it's warmer than '06, overall no where as near as '05 except in the tropics where it is .02 shy of 2005.
ajcamsmom~ That link should be that easy, except the months are numbered. Feb=2
Thank you Skyepony, I think I get this one. So, I saved it for future reference. Lost both my home and my new home in Katrina and even though nothing happened in 06...well, I am very nervous with all this El Nino/LA Nina talk...just trying to keep a handle on everything and be prepared...I check this site all day long to see what others have to say...so, again, thank you and Michael.
I think nature forgot about Spring. 94 here today. While just a few weeks ago we where talking about near record cold with a weak storm.
last week i was talking about snow and this week 70s i got my wish lol
ajcamsmom~ I remember. You got every right to be nervous. It's impossible to predict the season this far out with anything better than a 50/50, notice TSR forecast that came out yesterday had odds of getting it right around 25% for this time of year forecast. Try to enjoy the rest of the off season & remember the gloom & doom that hung in the air this time last year. I guess I did get hit squarely in '06 by a Tropical Depression..lol.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
850 PM PST TUE MAR 6 2007


TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND
BY SUNDAY (MAYBE EVEN SOME MID AND UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY
COUNTY).


i think where going right in to summer time her
I would love some mid 80's. It was 94 today with high and mid level clouds. Humidity was up a good bit today. Tonight should be more of the same. Infact some very light rain trying to make it to the ground. This is not the Marine layer you would expect to see this time a year it is infact High and Mid Level clouds from the tripical E Pac.
There is so much weather news going on the last few days, things just got active. I put some of it up in my blog. Including a bit about your drought Lightning.. Had to share this though. After the landslide a few days ago that killed 40 in Indonesia, now they just lost atleast 70 to an earthquake. Here's a list of the recent natural disasters over there.

-- March 6: An earthquake strikes Sumatra Island, killing at least 70 people and damaging hundreds of buildings.

-- March 3: Landslides triggered by days of heavy rain kill at least 40 people in eastern Indonesia.

-- Feb. 1: Rivers in the capital, Jakarta, burst their banks, submerging parts of the city in water up to 12 feet deep, killing 57 and displacing 450,000.

-- Dec. 29, 2006: A ferry sinks in a storm, killing more than 400 people in the Java Sea.

-- Dec. 23, 2006: Heavy rain touches off floods that kill more than 100 people and displace over 400,000 on Sumatra.

-- July 17, 2006: An earthquake triggers a tsunami off Java island's southern coast, killing at least 600 people.

-- June 19, 2006: Floods and mud flows kill up to 300 people in southern Sulawesi province.

-- May 27, 2006: An earthquake in central Java kills at least 5,800 people and injures more than 36,000.

-- May 2006: A series of explosions spew hot ash down the slopes of Mount Merapi, forcing 15,000 villagers to flee.

-- May 2006: A mud eruption at a drilling shaft on Java displaces more than 11,000 people and inundates villages and factories, spewing a million oil drums of muck a day.

-- Jan. 4, 2006: Some 200 people are killed in a landslide on Java.

-- March 28, 2005: More than 900 people are killed and tens of thousands are left homeless when an earthquake hits Nias, Banyak and Simeulue islands off the coast of Sumatra.

-- Dec. 26, 2004: An earthquake sets off a tsunami that kills more than 160,000 people in Indonesia, mostly in Aceh province on Sumatra.

source
Anyone else getting "Forbiddin" when they go to the FSU model page???
140. Inyo
holy wow lightning, it was in the 90s there? Only mid 70s here but I'm right by the beach. Isn't it a bit early for the marine layer though? I think it usually kicks in with a vengeance some time in May... if it even happens. I'm sure you remember that last summer the winds came from the east most of the time and blew it away.

I hope that doesnt' happen again this year! We need that marine layer to help offset the drought! Did you know that in oak woodlands and redwood forests, fog condensing and dripping off of plants and lichen can contribute several inches of water a year to the plant community? If the fog fails, so does the so called 'fog drip'.

I'm watching this tropical-type moisture too.. but it's really summer-type stuff... all virga. If its gonna be hot maybe at least we will get a good monsoon in the mountains this year.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
==========================

Severe Tropical Cyclone George [CAT 3]
15.3S 118.6E - 65 knots 958 hPa

wind gusts up to 90 knots

Severe Tropical Cyclone George [Category 3] was located 560 km north of Port Hedland and 630 km north-northeast of Karratha and moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George [Category 3] is now moving parallel to the Pilbara coast, and is continuing to intensify.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities in the next 24 hours. However, gales may develop in offshore coastal waters during Thursday night as Tropical Cyclone George expands in size, and takes a more southwesterly track


On Friday, gales with gusts to 65 knots are possible in coastal communities between Roebourne and Coral Bay as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
========================================
A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Roebourne.
Tropical Cyclone Jacob [Cat 2]
10 min sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Warning now in effect for Christmas Island.
Also, the Sahara dust ( and the huge pool of super-dry air associated with it ) is becoming more prevalent and stronger each year, as Africa blows away. Here in Trinidad the dust is affecting the weather locally, and is spreading further West each year. Humidity is 38 % today, here.
The dry air is certainly restricting storm development in the Tropical Atlantic, and in a few years will conceivably affect storm development in the Caribbean, and then in the Gulf too.


Are you saying that pretty soon, we won't have tropical storm formation at all? I find that hard to believe...
Wow, the Euro was right forecasting TS Jacob 5 days ago.
Darn shame that get real took his global warming blog down...since today yahoo news is running a story about scienctists heading towards the canary islands to study a section of sea floor devoid of the earths crust..instead..the mantle is showing through....now in the past decade...scientists have become aware that the mantle contains a high concentration of CO2, but with it being inaccessible truly understanding it has been difficult....I ask...are we ready to sell our soul to the MMGW theory when we have so many unanswered important questions? Mantle
Atlantic SST anomaly

This is the link I use -

If anyone knows a better one, please let me know.

Is there an animation of the SST graphics shown on this site?

(First ever post in first ever blog, so go easy on me)
This guy wont be going back to Boca Raton..period..Link
LSU page..Earthscan Labs..60 hr GOM SSTs forecast ..PLUS!..Link
Navigate menu and use as a Model..click start.
Morning everyone...
The Worst News for Lower 9th ward and ST. Bernard Parish in Se Louisiana.//////\\\\\\Wednesday, March 07, 2007
By Karen Turni Bazile,Times Picayune

The Army Corps of Engineers has no plans to elevate the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet levee on the Orleans Parish side of the Bayou Bienvenue locks, and St. Bernard officials say that's bad news for parish residents and those in the Lower 9th Ward.

St. Bernard officials have generally praised the corps' quick-footed effort to rebuild the devastated levees along the Gulf Outlet to a height of 20 feet in St. Bernard after Hurricane Katrina. But several said they were caught off guard and disappointed by news they learned at Tuesday's Parish Council meeting that there are no plans to elevate the levee between the bayou and the concrete wall on the Industrial Canal, leaving a height gap of as much as 9 feet.

That stretch of earthen levee in Orleans Parish was authorized to stand at 14 feet but has subsided to a height of 11 and 12 feet in many places, said Chris Gilmore, the corps' senior project manager for levees and floodwalls in St. Bernard Parish. The levee on the St. Bernard side was authorized for a height of 17.5 feet and was overbuilt to 20 feet to allow for subsidence.

Gilmore, who regularly updates the council on corps projects, said the corps doesn't want to spend money raising that stretch of the levee because it won't be needed once floodgates authorized by Congress are built in the next few years. The levees will lie inside the gates.

After the flood-control system failed catastrophically during Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration gave the corps a twofold mandate for restoring protection to the metro area: rebuild by June 1, 2006, the destroyed or damaged sections of the system to the heights authorized by Congress when it passed the Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection Plan in 1965; and have the rest of the system up to its authorized height by Sept. 1, 2007.

However, the situation with this section of levee is unique, Gilmore said, because the plan doesn't call for it to be elevated to its authorized height of 14 feet because of the proposed gates.

The gates' locations are still being determined, but Gilmore said leaving the levees at a lower height on the Orleans side of Bayou Bienvenue increases the vulnerability to flooding for St. Bernard and the Lower 9th Ward until the gates are built. He said the issue is being studied, and some elevation work could be authorized on an interim basis since the gates won't be completed until 2010.

St. Bernard Parish Council Chairman Joey DiFatta said he and other parish officials plan to voice their concerns at a special meeting today of the East Louisiana Flood Protection Authority Levee Board, the newly consolidated east bank levee board, in the St. Bernard Parish Council chambers. "What burns me up is that they rebuilt our levees (in St. Bernard) in six or seven months, but they have no construction plans for that (Orleans) portion of the levee in the works. I will be here screaming and hollering" at the meeting, DiFatta said.

. . . . . . .

Karen Turni Bazile can be reached at kturni@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3321
The area the below article refrences is here..the lower left side of Lake Borgne where the Funnel comes into the 9th Ward and ST.Bernard ..Link
Indeed there will be alot of talk in the next couple of months as SST'S are running somewhat above average In parts of the caribbean to the african coast.

Here is another look at current SST'S in the atlantic basin.

(Sea Surface Temps Gulf/Caribbean)



(Sea Surface Temps Atlantic Basin)

Pat......once the gats are built..will that really protect it..and is the gates project on schedule?
The water as it arrived in ST Bernard from Katrina by Security Cam at FOX transmitter..retrieved weeks after the storm..
In that area..the GAtes proposed wont be Completed till 2010. They want the Corps to Raise the levees their to 18ft as was done downriver...But they now arent to do it.That keeps St. Bernard and Lower 9th in Jeopordy still.
what's the cost of rasing the levees pat..any idea?
Task Force Guardian from Earliest Conception assessments.Link
The Corps Of Engineers TAsk Force Guardian Website. Link
Dirts cheap ric..its the Corps..not doing what the Local Engineers and Local navigational experts tell them to.They Most High and Mighty in their own lil minds.Plus,..after the work they did for Decades Failed miserably...theyve come around to more local influences of the Engineering.But the Buracrecy with them is Immemse and decades old.Nothing moves fast..cept now.In critical areas.They will build the levee up there.They just need to be one-upped and the pressures on already.They not the brightest PR guys the Corps...LOL
ok...no dollr numbers...i was just trying to see....how big a bet we're talking about..
Money was appropriated a Year ago..
ok...dirt cheap....is that a bit of double entendre?...LOL....strange.....think about it.....they've got the approval....they've got the funds....and they've got the mandate..you'ld think with that...someone in management..would have a brother with a backhoe that they could give the job to and be able to skim some profit
That dont happen in Reality.The GAO sees to that.Too much cnn in yer head still. LOL
Although HAlliburton has a Big Dirt/mudlogger interest.But that all offshore.They not in the Land Levee Buissness.
do you remember back in the history books....our country was floundering money wise..some great depression or other...and a president said....i'm gonna put people to work...and dams were built..and roads were built...what ever happeded to that kind of goverment spirit?
This story is where all the FAcets of the Diamond come together ric.GW..SSts..Cat3-5 threat...er what else..west-casting...ERCs..all the juciy parts of the Puzzle..here..and Galveston.
They not in the Land Levee Buissness.


and thus the reason nothing gets done..you aint got some influence to peddle..the project just isn't as important
Faded in the 60s ric.
pat....there's also a correlation between military spending and public works
They weird folks the Corps.Really are.SOme 50% of their workforce..educated people they say..lost their Homes here.And they still stiff the Media, refuse calls..and overall are a pain in the But t.But 86,000 lawsuits Filed against them .last week have them very Jumpy.Fed judge open the door to suits and Class-actions for those afffected from their poor designs and contracted work.
Thats a first in U. S. History.All the suit forms had to be in by 4pm last Weds.You should have seen the cars lined up.They had 40 people out there collecting them..SOme people even taping the forms being sent in as they were collected.Its a freak show,US citizens get to SUe the Federal Levee Builders..LOL.Only here Dude.
Personally.. I hear They have their Lumps in their throats with the Newest Forecast out for the season.I hope they kick it up a notch.St Bernard and areas in the east are still only sparsely back..maybe 20percent.Another blow..well.Lets not consider that today.
but in an evil twisted way......it had to be fun to watch
One day..we will meet and Ill tell ya a few Post storm stories before I got out Sept 16th..LOL.Bring wiskey and eats.Itll be a while.LOL!
Im off to find a seafood burner and some Propane.Going to Boil some crawfish come Sat.
... It is now the driest rain season to date in downtown Los
Angeles...

This rain season... or water year... is currently the driest to date
in downtown Los Angeles since records began in 1877. Since the
beginning of the water year... which began July 1 2006... downtown Los
Angeles has received just 2.42 inches of rain. That is a whopping
9.13 inches below the normal precipitation to date... which is 11.55
inches. To date... downtown Los Angeles has received only 21 percent
of normal rainfall. If downtown Los Angeles receives less than 2.00
inches of rain from now through June 30th... this will be the driest
rain season ever.


March... with an average rainfall of 3.14 inches... can be a very
wet month in Los Angeles... as in 1884 when 12.36 inches of rain
fell. However... there do not appear to be any major storms in
sight for Southern California. After March... average rainfall
drops off sharply in April to 0.83 inches... then to 0.31 inches
in may... and just 0.06 inches in June. Normal seasonal rainfall at
downtown Los Angeles is 15.14 inches.

Seasons with the least rainfall from July 1st through March 6th
are listed below.

Rank water precip % of normal final seasonal
season 7/1-3/6 thru 3/6 rainfall
(7/1-6/30)

1... ... ... (2006-07)... ... 2.42"... ... ..21%... ... ... ... ..????"
2... ... ... (1898-99)... ... 2.98"... ... ..26%... ... ... ... ..5.59"
3... ... ... (1923-24)... ... 3.06"... ... ..26%... ... ... ... ..6.67"
4... ... ... (1947-48)... ... 3.21"... ... ..28%... ... ... ... ..7.22"
5... ... ... (1903-04)... ... 3.25"... ... ..28%... ... ... ... ..8.72"
6... ... ... (1962-63)... ... 3.52"... ... ..30%... ... ... ... ..8.38"
7... ... ... (1960-61)... ... 3.99"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..4.85"
8... ... ... (2001-02)... ... 4.02"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..4.42" *
9... ... ... (1924-25)... ... 4.05"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..7.94"
10... ... ..(1998-99)... ... 4.28"... ... ..37%... ... ... ... ..9.08"


* driest season ever in Los Angeles

During the driest season ever... the 2001-2002 season...
precipitation from July 1st 2001 to March 6th 2002 was 4.02
oh great....whiskey...and after two shots...i'm a gonner...so i won't remember a thing....how about we do whiskey and coke....i'll whiff the whiskey and drink the coke...and...grab some vegetarian crawfish
Redevelopment projects like what is needed in New Orleans can't take place unless developer loans can be insured. One reads about this or that developer taking the reigns in New Orleans. None of these developers have that kind of capital. They work with giant loans, which must be underwritten, and the risk of New Orleans going under again is too great for insurers.