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An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Last update for the night.. looking forward to watching the Zoo in the morning :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Daily Chuckles in Comments section

Quoting Orcasystems:


Nice place, I have been there many times :)


yea bloody cold right now though 42degrees here
Looking forward to Tim's forecast this morning.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Would seem to gel with the graphic I posted.



Hi Homeless...
Quoting 7544:


this might help u

Link

thank you! it did help. have a good night all!

holy wow
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looking forward to Tim's forecast this morning.


Me too, I wonder where he's at? :(
1008. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:

holy wow



plus 1
later all iam out catch around 7 am
Where do you live Keep?
1011. JLPR
so ships sees a bright future for 91L taking it to H strength in 120hrs, TS in 24hrs
so TD soon?
it looks like a bit exaggerated, no? =P
It does seem a bit overdone JL..this one has to have you a little bit worried.
Been watching this blog for a while... lurking...

But Melor has been a beast...

NRl site has some good documentation of it; strangley holding on to Cat5/4 status well through its eye wall replacements.
1014. JLPR
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It does seem a bit overdone JL..this one has to have you a little bit worried.


yep a bit, but im relax until something actually actually forms :)
Keeper, lives in Toronto Canada.
Rain storm on the way across Sydney
Link
Goodnight all

JLPR---does look a little exaggerated--it has alot of work to do
Quoting Bordonaro:


I am not a meteorologist, but I understand what you're explaining. Cool.

But the $64,000 question is this, "If an ULL mimics the set-up or dynamics of a hurricane, but develops in 70F water, shouldn't it be considered a Hybrid/Sub-Tropical System"?



This is the way I interpreted the paper combined after hours of browsing the internet for other sources:

(1) Mature Extratropical Stage: At this stage, the surface extratropical cyclone features an occluded front, and has migrated beneath the center of an upper low (cold core).

(2) Subtropical cyclone stage: At this stage, the surface cyclone has separated from the occluded front and may feature a low-level warm core. If the upper-level low (cold core) allows for an unstable lapse rate, convection begins to develop, in some cases even over waters below 26 deg C. The convection triggers a more moist adiabatic lapse rate, which is even less stable. In the increasingly unstable atmosphere, air parcels increasingly rise, and low surface pressures are maintained or can fall.

(3) Tropical cyclone stage: At this stage, the convection has allowed for the development of a fully vertical warm core. The cyclone can continue to strengthen as long as it maintains deep convection, which allows for continued instability through super-moist adiabatic lapse rates.

The difference between stages (2) and (3) is how vertical deep the warm core is. The warm core is not involved in the strengthening process, just gives a signal of what stage its at. In both stages, the moist adiabatic lapse rate is dependent on the cyclone having a low central surface pressure such that it survives/strengthens.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This is the way I interpreted the paper combined after hours of browsing the internet for other sources:

(1) Mature Extratropical Stage: At this stage, the surface extratropical cyclone features an occluded front, and has migrated beneath the center of an upper low (cold core).

(2) Subtropical cyclone stage: At this stage, the surface cyclone has separated from the occluded front and may feature a low-level warm core. If the upper-level low (cold core) allows for an unstable lapse rate, convection begins to develop, in some cases even over waters below 26 deg C. The convection triggers a more moist adiabatic lapse rate, which is even less stable. In the increasingly unstable atmosphere, air parcels increasingly rise, and low surface pressures are maintained or can fall.

(3) Tropical cyclone stage: At this stage, the convection has allowed for the development of a fully vertical warm core. The cyclone can continue to strengthen as long as it maintains deep convection, which allows for continued instability through super-moist adiabatic lapse rates.

The difference between stages (2) and (3) is how vertical deep the warm core is. The warm core is not involved in the strengthening process, just gives a signal of what stage its at. In both stages, the moist adiabatic lapse rate is dependent on the cyclone having a low central surface pressure such that it survives/strengthens.


Thanks, believe or not, I understand that. If they allow systems like this to be considered TS, then the NHC/scientific textbook printing companies needs to consider changing SST threshold temperature. It's commonly taught that hurricanes need 80F SST to develop.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks, believe or not, I understand that. If they allow systems like this to be considered TS, then the NHC/scientific textbook printing companies needs to consider changing SST threshold temperature. It's commonly taught that hurricanes need 80F SST to develop.


Yep, that paper on Hurricane Vince indeed suggests not using a SST threshold, but a lapse rate threshold.
The 2am TWO from the NHC will have 91L inside of which colored circle:

A: Yellow Circle
B: Orange Circle
C: Red Circle

Please, vote now

Polls close in 15 minutes.
1023. JLPR




im off to bed
night :0)
1022 Weather Student

2AM Yellow Circle
I'm voting Orange.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
The 2am TWO from the NHC will have 91L inside of which colored circle:

A: Yellow Circle
B: Orange Circle
C: Red Circle

Please, vote now

Polls close in 15 minutes.


I think B, Orange Circle
Quoting WeatherStudent:
The 2am TWO from the NHC will have 91L inside of which colored circle:

A: Yellow Circle
B: Orange Circle
C: Red Circle

Please, vote now

Polls close in 15 minutes.

B.
1028. xcool
b
1029. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:

B.


orange
1030. xcool
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM GRACE...LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
AZORES.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS
Yellow circle--waiting for a DMAX response--stabilization
Hmmmm.interesting. Oh well, we were proven wrong yet again, weren't we folks? With the exception of one of us whom said it was gonna be yellow yet again, and he was right.
at 8 pm the nhc said slow development now at 2 am they said now guadual development hmmmm that means conditions are very favorable to develop
also it means orange at 8 am imo
Quoting AussieStorm:
Rain storm on the way across Sydney
Link


Glad to see it's Raining somewhere in AU,
I have heard it's a Terrible Drought down there, AussieStorm. Hope you get some more rain soon. Those huge dust storms I hear about look to be awful. I have a good friend up in Darwin NT, and some long lost relatives in Melbourne. At least the Cyclones have been clear of AU this year, right? Good Luck to our Australian pals from us "Yanks". W in Florida.
Yellow through tomorrow Pm

Good night folks from Mid-State TN. An interesting Tropical Weather week coming up!

TS Grace, the surprise TS will not live but 24-36 hrs.

TS Parma is gonna hang out in the S China Sea for 5 days, where's she gonna go?

Interesting to see if 91L develops and where she will go.

On Th 10-8-09, it will be very interesting to see how close TY Melor will get to Japan.

JTWC forecasts the center of TY Melor to pass within 25NMI of Japan's coast, as an 75KT TY near or just N of the Tokyo Metro area, which has an approx. population of 30,000,000 people on 10-8-09 shortly after 0800 UTC.
From 2006-
moderate shear, with trouble ahead


Quoting CatFiveLove:
moderate shear, with trouble ahead




You're oblivious my friend, absolutely oblivous.
G'nite all, I'll be back in the AM.
WS--- think so?
As much as I respect the NHC, 91L lools like at least an orange. Ive seen them use orange and red on worst looking systems!! Oh well!
91 L looks good for now, but NHC is notorious for waiting...that thing has alot of things to overcome--even massive blocking from North America, which keeps us all safe for now
Quoting CatFiveLove:
91 L looks good for now, but NHC is notorious for waiting...that thing has alot of things to overcome--even massive blocking from North America, which keeps us all safe for now
What about the Antillies and Carribean?
Quoting archer312:


Glad to see it's Raining somewhere in AU,
I have heard it's a Terrible Drought down there, AussieStorm. Hope you get some more rain soon. Those huge dust storms I hear about look to be awful. I have a good friend up in Darwin NT, and some long lost relatives in Melbourne. At least the Cyclones have been clear of AU this year, right? Good Luck to our Australian pals from us "Yanks". W in Florida.

Our Cyclone season starts November 1 till March 30.
Took a fair few pics of the storm as it was approaching they will be up in my blog soon.
Quoting tornadodude:
From 2006-

Isn't that Cyclone Hamish???


shear over antilles--with winds out of east--looks like head chopping material

correction east=west



1049. JLPR
what am I doing up, no idea XD
but 91L is looking good although convection still hasnt consolidated, several blobs of convection there



now im off to hit my head with a bat, then maybe I will finally be able to sleep lol
Some decent shear in 91Ls path. Probably why none of the models are too crazy about this system. ECMWF has it turning into an open wave. It is the 2009 hurricane season after all. The year of disturbances going POOF just when they look like they might start cranking up.
Quoting markymark1973:
Some decent shear in 91Ls path. Probably why none of the models are too crazy about this system. ECMWF has it turning into an open wave. It is the 2009 hurricane season after all. The year of disturbances going POOF just when they look like they might start cranking up.


"year of the disturbances going poop" agreed
Quoting CatFiveLove:
Yellow through tomorrow Pm


na i believe when the nhc says guadual development of a system they will probably upgrade to orange sometime today.
tx08--agreed-- NHC is not the NHC for no reason at all...but, possible orange to yellow would be my second bet
Quoting CatFiveLove:


shear over antilles--with winds out of east--looks like head chopping material

correction east=west




20 kts doesn't kill it....if its over 25 kts yes but it isn't and btw markymark1973 is a troll please ingore thanks
20 knts doesnt kill more organized storms--something with more centralized circulation--but, this season has shown me more opportunity for development than this thing, and the borderline shear like you said is 'yellow' in my book...that shear can vent its outflow, but i am more on the thought its vorticity will linger until things get more conducive
Oh, my God !!! GRACE is here, in our 90L !!!! LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good morning all from Spain :)
Quoting Cazatormentas:
Oh, my God !!! GRACE is here, in our 90L !!!! LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good morning all from Spain :)

its 91L
Yes by all means please ignore :)
well see whats happens i say that it will develop and probably be the last for the season but will see
1060. funeeeg
Grace is here!! I bet no one was expecting that especially since it is over 21 celcius SST and has under fairly moderate shear. It is a mini TS with an eye....
Quoting btwntx08:
well see whats happens i say that it will develop and probably be the last for the season but will see


Both of us have equal chances of correct.

I say a stalled cold front off of NA will be our last named storm
Quoting markymark1973:
Yes by all means please ignore :)


Whats your profile photo--chow young fat cat4/5 borderline from west pacific...sorry forget the name
I'll go with the ECMWF. I say 91L will be nothing more than an open wave and shear will keep it in check until it finally meets it's death. Pretty much the story of 2009.
I would say GRACE has been a hurricane, as VINCE was. It has showed an eye few hours ago!
Quoting CatFiveLove:


Whats your profile photo--chow young fat cat4/5 borderline from west pacific...sorry forget the name


lol yeah he was one big fat cat. Him and Melor. Best looking storms of 2009.
Our comments on GRACE at a Spanish Weather Forum & Site.

Thank you :)
Supertyphoon Melor is looking absolutely circular on the satellite now..
lets play find grace lol
1069. Sooon
It is really a tiny little thing...

1070. Sooon
... but it does bear an eye...

Like WOW

Parma left, Melor Right.
no kidding, Aussie

Typhoon Quedan (Melor) 65 m/s according to PAGASA
Morning All-

I will be very interested to hear what 456 and Storm W. and others have to say about 91l today...

Melor looks Annular or maybe transitioning into. it might be stronger than the prediction says.
Grace looks like she's strengthening maybe a hurricane? Also if she did would she beat Vince's record?
1075. IKE
And we say Grace and we say Ma’am
And if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn

Link
Why is there a tropical storm outside my doorstep?
1077. WxLogic
Good morning for a short time...

Very interesting... to wake up to a Grace. In regards possible INVEST 91L... CMC solution is not out of the question since we've been having a pretty persistent/strong mid lvl high dominating the W ATL and Carib. Sea. Definitely bears watching. ECMWF has also being persistent with this feature as it takes it through the Greater Antilles as an open wave. Should be interesting to watch during the next 24 to 48hrs to see which model had a better handle on it.

Also + MJO approaching by next week so the W ATL and Carib... should start transitioning to a Neutral state later this week into early next week.


Never thought I'd see the day.
1079. WxLogic
Quoting Cotillion:
Why is there a tropical storm outside my doorstep?


I believe "mother nature" wants EURO to have some additional excitement in their WX.
91L will become hurricane.
Amazing convention
1081. IKE
CMC and ECMWF are similar on 91L on path and diminishing it as it goes through the Caribbean.
Whats the comparative size between Melor and Grace??? Melor 10 times bigger?
I think GRACE is enterely a hurricane, as VINCE was...

We have updated our site, Cazatormentas.Net.
Quoting WxLogic:


I believe "mother nature" wants EURO to have some additional excitement in their WX.


We do.. It's El Nino, and it's beginning to become windstorm season.

The Met Office doesn't say what'll happen after 24 hours, just totally drops it, there's not even anything specifically near it... nearest being a 988mb low just north of Scotland.

Ensemble says it passes right over us or close to us, so should be fun.
Good Morning, Ike
1086. IKE
Latest GFS...6Z at 132 hours, has about the same path as the ECMWF on 91L...could be a good fightmaker on the blog if we could get all of the "season is over" people to join in, like tacoman....

Hello everyone! Posting from Okinawa Japan. Any change in Melor?
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon Melor east of extreme northern Luzon has entered the Philippine Area Of Responsibility and is named "QUEDAN".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Quedan (Melor) located at 19.5ºN 134.3ºE or 1,130 km east southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 210 km/h (110 kts) with gusts up to 250 km/h (135 kts).

Additional Information
===========================
This disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "PEPENG" has slightly intensified as it remains almost stationary and still threatens Extreme Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #21
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Tropical Storm Pepeng (Parma) located at 20.0ºN 119.2ºE or 220 kms north northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 km/h (55 kts) with gusts up to 135 km/h (70 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Sur
2.Abra
3.Apayao
4.Northern Cagayan
5.Calayan Group of Islands
6.Babuyan Group of Islands
7.Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.La Union
2.Benguet
3.Mountain Province
4.Ifugao
5.Kalinga
6.Rest of Cagayan

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signals #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
Quoting mcswains:
Hello everyone! Posting from Okinawa Japan. Any change in Melor?

No real change yet. Still a beast.


TS Grace Storm Track:
Quoting StormW:
Anyone know why the Navy doesn't have 91L on their site?


Don't know really and it's not on their back up site either.

Morning BTW
http://www.sat24.nl/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

Nice Grace animation

Greetings from the Netherlands ;)
grace could be what the asp mundaca spain needs the other system could also be another great surf storm for some part of the us. for live asp surfing from the basque country of northern spain http://www.billabongpro.com/mundaka09/live.php
Good Morning Senior Chief
Grace is Miss Independent

LINK
1101. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning, Ike


Forgot to say good morning to U.
1105. IKE
Quoting StormW:
What a joke.



So...what is it? I haven't been following it.

Looking at that map you posted...not much.
Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.


They tried to make for lost time.
Grace: from nothing of real interest to a 60KT tropical storm overnight. At a timewhen all the models say nothings going to develops, Over 20C water? When all the European sailboats are making their way to Las Palmas to cross over next month.
Crazy....
Anybody remember TS epilon from I think 2005..new years storm that kind of wandered around for a week in the eastern atlantic and NHC keep saying it was going to dissapate until they were saying "we know we've said this before"
How do you forcast something thats not even supposed to form in the first place?
1109. IKE
Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.


That's what I was thinking you were saying.

The NHC has been questioned more in 2009, then ever on here.

They mention 90L...drop it...start mentioning it again, but say development is unlikely. I wake up this morning and they have it listed as a 60...and now 70 mph TS.

They seem a little unsure of themselves in 2009.
From my blog

Tropical storm forced winds extends outwards only 50 miles and thus is not readily seen on QuikSCAT imagery.
1112. IKE
LOL at that quikscat on Grace~
1114. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GRACE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Joe B. This a.m.


MONDAY 7:30 AM
TYPHOON MELOR THE MAJOR NEWS ITEM WEATHERWISE.

The super typhoon in the Pacific will deal Japan a harsh midweek blow with the track over or very near Tokyo on Thursday. There is opportunity to see "linkage" here to the western hemisphere pattern as the tropical wave in the atlantic near 50 west should be near Puerto Rico by Thursday. If it can stay north of the islands, this does have a chance to be something that can reach the southeast coast and then turn northeast early next week in front of the major cold shot that will envelope the plains later this week and the east for a time next week. Remember, Tokyo is at the latitude of Hatteras. It is interesting to note that the GFS, though not via tropical systems, does have a storm in the mid atlantic coastal waters early next week.

I have wasted enough time with Grace. you are more than welcome to try to justify, in your mind, why this should be named. This is about as egregious example of late season naming in the middle of nowhere as I have ever seen.

Look at the pic of this ( if you can find it) and ask if that was off the coast of NJ, given what you saw with other storms, if it would have been named. I would be embarrassed to actually sign my name to an advisory on this, given history.

No Melor, that of course is a real storm with real implications as far as Japan. It has been a very quiet Pacific season overall, but for Japan, the intensity of this storm will make up for it. In terms of the US, notice how several days later the big trough comes into the east with action near the east coast... as the far/east Pacific demonstrate again why one should pay attention to all the weather worldwide to try to get a jump on events elsewhere.

Thanks for reading, ciao for now *****
Dumping rain here again this morning.

Pretty much sux.
1117. Relix
I am fairly sure 91L won't become anything to be honest. Will probably be a nice rain event here in the islands, if even that
1118. IKE
Bastardi...I would be embarrassed to actually sign my name to an advisory on this, given history.

LOL.
1119. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Dumping rain here again this morning.

Pretty much sux.


Raining here too. Had nearly an inch since it started last night.

Warm...muggy....miserable weather.
Tropical Storm Grace... is actually... Temperate Squall Grace...

Someone just got the TS initials wrong.
1121. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.


Good Morning...

I would have thought you would have referenced a different part of your anatomy...
Quoting StormW:


It's the image from OSI SAF QuikSCAT 25-km.

The little donut thingy is Grace.

Posted it cause...where is the surface circulation? Where are the strongest winds?

Tropical storm my foot.

Agree with you 100%, I think they are just "trying" to get there numbers up.
Quoting Dakster:


Good Morning...

I would have thought you would have referenced a different part of your anatomy...

he doesn't want to get banned again


Spot the big nasty storm.
Quoting Cotillion:


Spot the big nasty storm.

Yeah, compare it to the real nasty storm, Typhoon Melor.
1126. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Spot the big nasty storm.


May reach the north pole by the end of the week.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, compare it to the real nasty storm, Typhoon Melor.


I think we should put Grace next to it. Melor might dissipate in hysterics of laughter.
my understanding the threshold at this time of yr is lower than mid summer especially in the mid latitudes
I am hoping some of the florida panhandle rain makes it further east. We only have 40%chance.
Why is the European imagery so far out of sync? I'm surprised their imagery doesn't update at the same rate as ours. Do we just not get theirs? the IR eye is pretty far from the TS marker and the winds posted by Ike look off.
grace has an eye... remember carlos in EPAC it was a small but deadly curculation cat3. + my grandma lives in a town just S of Londen seems to be headed that way.
1131. P451
Grace...



Cloud tops are quite warm...

Current:



Earlier:



Storm Relative:

Good Monday morning, everybody! Death-casting as usual, huh, Ike? I REALLY hope you get proven wrong this latest go-around. At least before this season really does come to a close, anyways.
1133. P451
91L

Quoting P451:
91L



It has a highly distinctive spin to it, it just lacks convection for the time-being.
Quoting Cotillion:


I think we should put Grace next to it. Melor might dissipate in hysterics of laughter.

Grace:(in a high squeaky voice) Hi I'm Grace, who are you.
Melor:(In a deep booming voice) Hi Grace I'm Melor, what you trying to be , a hurricane......hahahahahahahahaha cough cough cough aaarrrrrhhhhh. SPLASH.
Grace: Melor...Melor... oh no he's dead
Lol

Is this a quikscat of Grace? Where is the circulation?


INV/91L/XX
MARK
12N/46W
Quoting stormpetrol:

Is this a quikscat of Grace? Where is the circulation?

its there somewhere I am sure its there, maybe.
Quoting AussieStorm:

its there somewhere I am sure its there, maybe.
its there alright right there next to nothing
1141. SLU
536

WHXX01 KWBC 051230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC MON OCT 5 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912009) 20091005 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091005 1200 091006 0000 091006 1200 091007 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.7N 45.6W 13.1N 48.5W 14.5N 51.7W 15.9N 54.6W

BAMD 11.7N 45.6W 12.8N 48.2W 14.0N 50.9W 15.2N 53.3W

BAMM 11.7N 45.6W 12.8N 48.4W 13.9N 51.2W 15.0N 53.9W

LBAR 11.7N 45.6W 12.8N 48.3W 14.2N 51.2W 15.7N 53.9W

SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS

DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091007 1200 091008 1200 091009 1200 091010 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.0N 57.2W 18.2N 61.1W 17.9N 64.5W 16.8N 68.3W

BAMD 16.3N 55.5W 18.2N 59.3W 18.1N 62.8W 16.2N 68.3W

BAMM 15.8N 56.1W 16.7N 60.1W 16.3N 64.0W 14.8N 69.3W

LBAR 17.3N 56.4W 20.5N 58.9W 22.3N 57.0W 21.0N 52.5W

SHIP 41KTS 48KTS 56KTS 69KTS

DSHP 41KTS 48KTS 56KTS 69KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 45.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 39.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

a bit further south and west
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its there alright right there next to nothing

yeah...lol
1143. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:

its there somewhere I am sure its there, maybe.





Quoting Weather456:
From my blog

Tropical storm forced winds extends outwards only 50 miles and thus is not readily seen on QuikSCAT imagery.
Just checking on the tall ship Bounty and she is close to Grace, but isn't reporting any data.
1145. P451
So 91L is in there somewhere.



LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 45.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
1146. P451
02Z (11 hours ago) MODIS hi-res image.

1147. P451
Of relevance to Grace's formation, and of coincidence that another Grace was a part of this whole situation:

An unnamed hurricane at the center of the dying Halloween Storm of October, 1991 has reached its peak intensity in this visible GOES 7 image from 1801 UTC on November 1, 1991. The storm was packing sustained winds of 65 knots and the minimum central pressure was 980 millibars. The counterclockwise swirl of the larger cyclone is still very evident in this view of the northwest Atlantic and Eastern U.S. The storm was moving rapidly northeastward and hit Nova Scotia as a weakened tropical storm the next day. It was the eighth hurricane (and 34th tropical cyclone of either tropical storm or hurricane intensity) which remained unnamed since the official naming of Atlantic tropical cyclones began in 1950.



The Unnamed 1991 Hurricane

Which was spawned by the decaying Perfect Storm
1148. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:
Tropical Storm Grace... is actually... Temperate Squall Grace...

Someone just got the TS initials wrong.

Came in looking for my morning *giggle*
Just got found it LOL!!
Melor appears to be undergoing another EWRC:



1151. beell
91L still pretty much a mid-level thing- 14N 46W ?

Buoy 41040 14.5N 53.0W
Buoy 41041 14.4N 46.0W
Palmbay Fla. Temp 79 Hum 80% Barom 29.934in wind S. Looks like another nice day in central Fl. A bit damp,but nice. This has been a strange year so far. Wondering what winter will be,cold or very cold? Any of you have any answers, about the cold part?
Shear seems to be disrupting any chance 91L has at obtaining a surface circulation. thunderstorm activity still looks broad and disorganized. Dont see any significant worries out of this one in the near term.
05/1200 UTC 44.3N 17.1W T3.5/3.5 GRACE

For those not believing in Grace.

The NJ storm never got this kind of appreciation by Dvorak
1156. surfmom
Quoting litestar:
Palmbay Fla. Temp 79 Hum 80% Barom 29.934in wind S. Looks like another nice day in central Fl. A bit damp,but nice. This has been a strange year so far. Wondering what winter will be,cold or very cold? Any of you have any answers, about the cold part?


Sadly, very sadly --I'm thinking it's going to be a COLD one. (El Nino holds hands w/El Norte') Oak Trees are very heavy w/ nuts too BTW.

only good thing is we need a mass killing of all FLEAS - they're outta control with two years of light winter.
Grace= Vort cane
1158. tacoman
grace=never was
1159. surfmom
post 1153 - thanks HiExpress! ROTFL - more news to put in my worry basket...

I had know about this.... wonder how it would affect the Nuclear Energy Plant in Port. Lucie
1160. IKE
Orville Redenbacher...bag of popcorn into microwave...check.

Bottle of Pepsi...times 2....check.

Toothpicks to get rid of popcorn remains between teeth...check.

Drama on the blogs...check.

***Reading it....priceless***
Quoting IKE:
Orville Redenbacher...bag of popcorn into microwave...check.

Bottle of Pepsi...times 2....check.

Toothpicks to get rid of popcorn remains between teeth...check.

Drama on the blogs...check.

***Reading it....priceless***


For everything else, there's Mastercard.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Melor appears to be undergoing another EWRC:


Nah, it's just cracking up over Grace as we said earlier.

It's working!

(That's what the NHC were doing in naming it.. Ahh, how holistic of them.)
Ships makes a cane out of 91L

SHIP 41KTS 48KTS 56KTS 69KTS
Believe it or not, Grace does 'look' better in the last few hours compared to last night when it was named.

It was named at... 11pm? So 4am over here. (3am GraceTime, anyhow.)



Just over the Azores.

Then fast forward a bit... To when it was named:





Midday today.

It may not have the tropical mechanics (It is waayyyyy out of its comfort zone after all.. it's not even in the subtropics.) but it certainly looks the part.. in Marco-dimensions, anyway. (Macro -> Micro -> Marco, you see.)

I have not seen this posted yet... my apologies if its a repost.

Good Morning. Going to be an icky sticky week here...

Tuesday brings much warmer weather as the warm front moves away from the area bringing in higher humidity creating heat index readings as high as 102.

By time we get to the weekend this will feel like heaven...

Saturday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of rain showers. Low: 65. High: 78. Wind: NE 15mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Low: 62. High: 79. Wind: E 10mph.

Lol. The NWS assures me that the end of the week cold front has a good chance of pushing through here. I hope so. :)
Grace almost=Marco, except Grace is stronger and slightly bigger.Grace also has a (now-almost cloud-filled) eye.
Grace is back to 55kt, and Best Track reveals that Grace was a tropical storm since October 4 12UTC

Link
The Weather Channel really ripped the NHC for the naming of Grace. They almost treated it as a joke. They also pulled out the NHC manual for requirements of a tropical system to raise the question as to why.

I bet Joe B. will have fun with this one.
1171. katroy
I'm hoping someone can point me in the direction of some satellite pictures I've seen posted here before.

They are of the entire world (or at least the half that's visible at any given time) - clearly taken from way out there. These images provide good perspective on the size of a particular storm.

Can someone please direct me to where I can find the Web site that hosts/publishes them?

Many thanks!
This sure goes far back for a storm that was only recently named...


But really, why does the warning intensity go so far back???
1171. i'm not sure if this is the one you're talking about....

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W S OF
15N WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY TUE. THIS WAVE
HAS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 09N TO 16N AND THE 2344 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE
WAVE. BUOY 41041 SAW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS TO 8
FT AT 0300 UTC. THE MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF...DEVELOPING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE BY TUE NIGHT NEAR 16N55W AND SPLINTERING THIS LOW OFF FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TRACKING IT NW...PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO
AND INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE ON FRI. THE PARENT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE W INTO THE CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

Cmiss is down any other sites that show wind shear?
So we have Grace, well I always thought it would get a name so I have no issues with it


Again the Atlantic Basin covers a wide area and this is within that area; and its fully tropical

It is small, but looking at the loop; no question it deserved a name
Quoting surfmom:
post 1153 - thanks HiExpress! ROTFL - more news to put in my worry basket...

I had know about this.... wonder how it would affect the Nuclear Energy Plant in Port. Lucie


GM Surfmom - really sweating that one, filing it just below *falling airplane propeller strike* :O
wu got mail
Quoting Orcasystems:
I have not seen this posted yet... my apologies if its a repost.


what size of wave did the USA get from the Samoan Tsunami?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
The Weather Channel really ripped the NHC for the naming of Grace. They almost treated it as a joke. They also pulled out the NHC manual for requirements of a tropical system to raise the question as to why.

I bet Joe B. will have fun with this one.


I almost have to agree with the Weather channel with this one.......LOOK at this graphic very close.....with Grace located at 43N 18W not only does this graphic show it could not be tropical with the Temp. but the Min. Central Pressure shows it could not qualify to be Tropical either........I guess they are stretching there values....

Quoting ElConando:
Cmiss is down any other sites that show wind shear?


Link

Hope it helps. I still can't make heads or tails out of it. :)
Think they're making up for when it was near the Canary Islands and had the eye
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
So we have Grace, well I always thought it would get a name so I have no issues with it


Again the Atlantic Basin covers a wide area and this is within that area; and its fully tropical

It is small, but looking at the loop; no question it deserved a name


Season is still over,
Whatever Grace truly is, it sure is interesting.


Click on the image above to view a much larger image.
I guess NHC will now name the swirl at 41N 30W?
Quoting AussieStorm:

what size of wave did the USA get from the Samoan Tsunami?


0.6 ft on the pacific coast of us and 1.6 in Hawaii.
Quoting AussieStorm:

what size of wave did the USA get from the Samoan Tsunami?

From Hawaii247.org

"Hilo recorded a 0.5 foot rise in sea level, on top of about 3-4 foot waves."
How about we just fire all the losers at the NHC and replace them with you wonderful people who obviously know more about the tropics than they do.

Geez grow up
1188. Patrap
NEW BLOG folks..

Jeff Masters New Entry
I can't find anywhere where Europe has Grace identified as a Tropical system. Has anyone else?

This graphic certainly does not show Tropical Storm force winds......