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An Atlantic Named Storm Coming for the First Week of May?

By: Jeff Masters 2:07 PM GMT on May 01, 2015

The first week of May is usually too early for the Atlantic to see its first named storm, but that is a possibility this year, according to the Friday morning runs of the GFS and European models. These models predict that an extratropical storm will form along an old cold frontal boundary over the Bahama Islands just east of the coast of Florida on Tuesday, then drift slowly northwards towards North Carolina during the week. Ocean temperatures are near 26°C (79°F), which is about 1.7°C (3°F) above average for this time of year, and just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form. If the storm manages to find a sweet spot over the core of the warm Gulf Stream current, it has the potential to develop into a subtropical or tropical depression in the May 7 - 8 time frame. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University from Friday morning's 06Z run of the GFS model support the idea that this system could be a subtropical or tropical system until it pushes north of a line even with the South Carolina/North Carolina border, where ocean temperatures fall to about 25°C (77°F). It is too early to put odds on whether or not this storm might make landfall, but South Carolina and North Carolina might see some rain from this system by Thursday.


Figure 1. WInd forecast for Thursday, May 7, 2015 at 8 am EDT made by the 00Z Friday run of the European model. The model is predicting a possible subtropical depression to be off the coast of the Southeast U.S.

Later today, Bob Henson will have a fascinating post on how human structures may be causing winter lightning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr Masters!
From the last blog...

Quoting 183. Climate175:
Hey! Long time no see, how are you doing? Yes, we could be see our first storm of the season in the coming days.


I'm more of a seasonal blogger, I'll be around a bit more from now on. I'm doing great, had a rough winter though. Thanks for asking.

Meanwhile, CMC depicting DOOM on may 7, as it does with nearly every system....

Sub-1000MB system landfalling in north/south Carolina.


Thanks for the new post, Dr.Masters. I enjoy reading your material on a regular basis.
Gee. Just moving to the North Carolina coast, not even unpacked yet and already a chance of a named storm?
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I will continue to be a proponent for eliminating the 26C threshold claim until I die, lol. It's not as clear-cut as people make it out to be (speaking generally here). 2012's Chris peaked over ocean temperatures far cooler than 26C; in fact, it remained as a hurricane over sub-20C SSTs. Why? Because the upper levels of the atmosphere were unusually cold. The contrast between the cold upper levels and the warm lower levels provided plenty of elevated instability to fuel the cyclone. A similar situation is being forecast next week. SSTs are useful; they're not the deciding factor.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
I'll give this a 30/70 chance of developing. What do you guys think.
Potential for this possible system to have an Asymmetric warm core, which could support it being Sub-tropical if it forms.

Quoting 8. Torito:

Potential for this possible system to have an Asymmetric warm core, which could support it being Sub-tropical if it forms.


I think it will reform back to fully tropical though.
NASA's GEOS-5 has been showing this a few days now.



Has landfall on the Carolinas on May 9th..



Little far out though.. This Front tail this is forecast to form off of originally put this low in the East Pacific.

The intensity seems to vary somewhat widely depending on view as well.. Compare the peaks..

Quoting 9. HurricaneAndre:
I think it will reform back to fully tropical though.


Well, the CMC suggests it could potentially stay with a warm symmetric core, instead of going asymmetric at all, which could allow the system to be called tropical. To me, it seems it will matter mainly on how early it manages to form, if at all, before it moves too far north into cooler, and potentially harsher waters.

Quoting 10. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 has been showing this a few days now.



Has landfall on the Carolinas on May 9th..



Little far out though.. This Front tail this is forecast to form off of originally put this low in the East Pacific.

The intensity seems to vary somewhat widely depending on view as well.. Compare the peaks..


It would be very interesting if we have an early May landfall.
Quoting 11. Torito:



Well, the CMC suggests it could potentially stay with a warm symmetric core, instead of going asymmetric at all, which could allow the system to be called tropical. To me, it seems it will matter mainly on how early it manages to form, if at all, before it moves too far north into cooler, and potentially harsher waters.


True, very true. What percentages would you get.
Quoting 13. HurricaneAndre:
True, very true. What percentages would you get.


I don't know. Maybe 50/50 chance of being recognized as a depression.. Honestly, I believe the chance of it receiving a name is fairly slim.
Quoting 10. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 has been showing this a few days now.



Has landfall on the Carolinas on May 9th..



Little far out though.. This Front tail this is forecast to form off of originally put this low in the East Pacific.

The intensity seems to vary somewhat widely depending on view as well.. Compare the peaks..


We have model consensus growing on a landfall.
Why do the early storms want to come towards me all the time?

Well at any rate, have a happy halfway between the spring equinox and summer solstice everyone!
Quoting 14. Torito:



I don't know. Maybe 50/50 chance of being recognized as a depression.. Honestly, I believe the chance of it receiving a name is fairly slim.
Okay. But if Ana gets named next week, would you think this could be like the 2003 hurricane season.
Quoting 16. win1gamegiantsplease:
Why do the early storms want to come towards me all the time?

Well at any rate, have a happy halfway between the spring equinox and summer solstice everyone!


Send it here to Maryland. Our fertilizer is having trouble being absorbed into the ground, because it is so dry up here right now..
Quoting 16. win1gamegiantsplease:

Why do the early storms want to come towards me all the time?

Well at any rate, have a happy halfway between the spring equinox and summer solstice everyone!
I guess it's all apart of the origins of early season storms.
Quoting 17. HurricaneAndre:
Okay. But if Ana gets named next week, would you think this could be like the 2003 hurricane season.


I personally do not believe that this season will really relate too terribly much to 2003, In fact, I think that this season in the Atlantic may be only average, if that. However, if you are referring to the fact that both early and late systems formed, that could always be a possibility, but at this point, it is probably WAY too far out to tell.
I wouldn't be surprised if something develops along the east coast here in May, then nothing happens till like August.

Maybe like the 2009 season with TD #1?

not going too happen turst me this is where you want too look if you want too track a name storm

we may have are 1st TD fourming in the E PAC


Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I will continue to be a proponent for eliminating the 26C threshold claim until I die, lol. It's not as clear-cut as people make it out to be (speaking generally here). 2012's Chris peaked over ocean temperatures far cooler than 26C; in fact, it remained as a hurricane over sub-20C SSTs. Why? Because the upper levels of the atmosphere were unusually cold. The contrast between the cold upper levels and the warm lower levels provided plenty of elevated instability to fuel the cyclone. A similar situation is being forecast next week. SSTs are useful; they're not the deciding factor.


Thats a good point. The 79°+ sst certainly helps but we've seen storms maintain themselves over cooler seas than that.
Quoting 19. HurricaneAndre:

I guess it's all apart of the origins of early season storms.


They seem to be either nearshore by the Southeast/Bahamas or the eastern Gulf.
Quoting 21. opal92nwf:
I could foresee something developing along the east coast here in May, and then nothing till like August.

Maybe like the 2009 season with TD #1?



2009 had some of the most amazing looking systems, IMO. For example...

TS Grace, 2009.

Quoting 20. Torito:



I personally do not believe that this season will really relate too terribly much to 2003, In fact, I think that this season in the Atlantic may be only average, if that. However, if you are referring to the fact that both early and late systems formed, that could always be a possibility, but at this point, it is probably WAY too far out to tell.



the Atlantic is in wores shape then it was in 2014 season if we are going too be seeing name storms and if we are vary lucky it will be closer too home that is if we do get name storms this year like i been saying look too the E PAC if you want name storms thats where the fun will be
for those interested in el nino...I followed this guy last year...and he was spot on.....here's his view on curret and future conditions.....Link
Water temperature is 84 over here in For Myers on the Gulf side of Florida.
The GOM is ready to start the season.
Quoting 27. ricderr:
for those interested in el nino...I followed this guy last year...and he was spot on.....here's his view on curret and future conditions.....Link


I'm happy with that.. I'll take the cooler temperatures in Maryland. I cant stand the heat! :c
Quoting 26. Tazmanian:



the Atlantic is in wores shape then it was in 2014 season if we are going too be seeing name storms and if we are vary lucky it will be closer too home that is if we do get name storms this year like i been saying look too the E PAC if you want name storms thats where the fun will be


Don't worry, Taz. Everyone will be watching in 2 weeks.
Quoting 7. HurricaneAndre:

I'll give this a 30/70 chance of developing. What do you guys think.


Since you asked, I think that you should state that you think that the chance of it developing is 30%, or that you think that the chance of it developing is 70%, not 30/70, unless you mean that you think that the chance of it developing is 30/70 = 3/7 = about 42%.
Quoting 22. Tazmanian:
not going too happen turst me this is where you want too look if you want too track a name storm

we may have are 1st TD fourming in the E PAC




Here u go Taz. CMC 144 hours out. TD or TS in the EPAC.

Quoting 31. DCSwithunderscores:



Since you asked, I think that you should state that you think that the chance of it developing is 30%, or that you think that the chance of it developing is 70%, not 30/70, unless you mean that you think that the chance of it developing is 30/70 = 3/7 = about 42%.
30% in 3 days and 70% in 7 days.
Better picture of CMC DOOM...
144 hours out.

based on all of the models y'all have been posting from GFS and EURO id give it 10% of being named at the moment. still stoked at the possibility though. hopefully it will send us some good surf! sunday and Monday are looking fun around here....
Early Season storms can have surprises, Tropical Storm Beryl almost got to Hurricane Strength in 2012.
Quoting 33. HurricaneAndre:

30% in 3 days and 70% in 7 days.


Okay thanks, I understand math better than the storm chance terminology.

Shear is on a downward trend. Just what we need to develop Ana.


Gorgeous weather across N and C FL. This is probably our last shot of dewpoints in the 50s until October.
Cant wait to try out the NAM-4km radar simulations this season on storms around home.. Very high definition, incredible detail on even the smallest area..

The only sad part about it is that it only goes out 2 and a half days. (60 hours.)

Just to see what it might look like on the blog, here's 12 hours out on what may be going on around the USA.



Full size, easier to see.
The anticipation is palatable.

Friday Jazz Fest set list iz,

and surely not for any foo-foo, shoo-shoo Atlantic "May Puff".

: )
Comment disappeared in previous blog so i'll repeat.

I just looked at water temps in the Central Bahamas since I'm fishing there (with friends of twenty five years) in two weeks for the family's annual supply of Mahi, King Mackerel, and Tuna (we release Marlin if we get them to the boat).

Water temps are 2C above normal. This is a huge departure for any time of year in this region. Comment solicited.

43. vis0
Lets paah-ray...
Oh nature plahhhhhhhhhleeeeeeeze First and foremost bring wisdom to the public that no one get hurt not even legislatures that want to ban certain w*rds if the TS develops..
Let the sub Tropical storm form over the 77 degrees
Let this sub Tropical storm move slightly NW pass the GoMxGuStream and not form into a TS
Let the still, sub Tropical storm move over cooler waters at 75 degrees then blow up into a Cat 2 and slide Eastward under Bermuda
not affecting any land..and warn the fishies to duck till we place bait on our fishing sticks (go gIANTS!...oh wrong sport) & eat them later
Models, esp GFS overforecasts TC Genesis in the western Carribean in May when I go fishing. It's unnerving but I realize most of these won't actually happen. The event in this blog post happens prior to the trip so not a concern for me 'cept it could make a wet weekend prior in the DC metro area. Or not!

We tried fishing in September the first year, 1990. We won't ever repeat that mistake! Much hotter and more humid! And of course the TC risk is real and substantial.
Quoting 28. Sfloridacat5:

Water temperature is 84 over here in For Myers on the Gulf side of Florida.
The GOM is ready to start the season.



The Gulf has been ready for weeks.
46. SLU
interesting stuff
Oh God CMC, it's too early for this crap.

48. vis0
Quoting 3. HarryMc:

Gee. Just moving to the North Carolina coast, not even unpacked yet and already a chance of a named storm?
Don't forget to unpack Patraps guide for Hurr...huh wheres Patrap's pgs...must be my compu'r acting up (as vis0 picks up his Mike Schmidt 36 oz bat --i used as an 11 yr old-- and swings at the compu'r tower)

OH i SEE the BY DATE LINK IS
NOT AVAILABLE on patraps blog but by CATEGORY its there unpack this box of knowledge to help one get ready BEFORE things get rough.
Vertical Instability along the East Coast is right around climatological average.



On Day 5 Surface Analysis indicates a tropical wave, which would be the catalyst for a developing low pressure off the East Coast of FL.



Day 5 Outgoing Longwave Radiation grid on Experimental FIM-9. shows the tropical wave:



500 mb. vort. max. off the East Coast of FL. per GFS:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5m5 minutes ago
@TropicalTidbits might want to add a western epac/cpac one for this year :)

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 Yes, currently fighting over whether to divide up the giant CPAC domain I currently have. Resources are finite.
Andy Hazelton ‏@AndyHazelton 4m4 minutes ago
@TropicalTidbits @EricBlake12 You could save space by chopping the Atlantic off N of 20N - won't need it this year ;)
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1m1 minute ago
@AndyHazelton @EricBlake12 Haha, this is true. Spare our eyes from the unsightly SAL outbreaks in the model.
Quoting 16. win1gamegiantsplease:

Why do the early storms want to come towards me all the time?

Well at any rate, have a happy halfway between the spring equinox and summer solstice everyone!


Wait a minute. 41 days since Equinox. 50 days to Solstice. We aren't halfway yet.

I try to have first sweetcorn before summer solstice here in Maryland. 1992 and 2003 were the only years I didn't make it.
52. vis0

Quoting 41. Patrap:

The anticipation is palatable.

Friday Jazz Fest set list iz,

and surely not for any foo-foo, shoo-shoo Atlantic "May Puff".

: )
4got "witchy-poo" (a character from big headed kids show 1960s-70s)
Quoting 18. Torito:



Send it here to Maryland. Our fertilizer is having trouble being absorbed into the ground, because it is so dry up here right now..
We need this drying out period.
Really need to be in the Gulf Stream for adequate water temperatures to support tropical development.
Water gets really cold fast once you move out of the Gulf Stream, especially north of Florida.
55. Ed22
Good morning, that's not surprising; I'm looking for at least two named storm in the month of May (Pre-Hurricane season). My Hurricane season predictions will come soon just look out for the post soon from me...
12z GFS has a moderate tropical storm by Wednesday:

Thanks dok!

I hope this does not happen.
Quoting Torito:
Better picture of CMC DOOM...
144 hours out.




DOOM:CON: OVER 9000!!!!!!!!
Well if this becomes a tropical storm, I'll have to come out with my predictions much sooner. :P I have a formula for how I will calculate that.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well if this becomes a tropical storm, I'll have to come out with my predictions much sooner. :P I have a formula for how I will calculate that.


How does 9-2-1 sound?
Thanks Dr. No way to tell, other than the current modeling, whether this will actually happen or not. I only note that current shear, even off that part of US coast, is howling so I think marginal-favorable SST's are a portion of the equation.  A cold cored storm (based upon a low emerging off the coast from the continental US or a late season Gulf low moving up the seaboard) is the typical scenario for an extra-tropical storm in this general location.  Formation north of the Bahamas, if the shear does not cooperate to some degree, is a tougher nut to crack IMHO.  However, would be a real pre-season "treat" if we actually got a first named storm for the upcoming season under these conditions.  
M 6.7 - 125km SSW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
Time
2015-04-30 10:45:05 UTC
Location
5.392°S 151.818°E
Depth
48.9 km

M 6.8 - 106km SSW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
2015-05-01 08:06:04 UTC
Location
5.196°S 151.801°E
Depth
57.0 km

GFS still holding to its word.
Definition from NOAA/NHC as to subtropical and extra-tropical systems:


Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC) and Sandy Delgado (NHC)

sub-tropical cyclone is a low-pressure system existing in the tropical or subtropical latitudes (anywhere from the equator to about 50°N) that has characteristics of both tropical cyclones and mid-latitude (or extratropical) cyclones. Therefore, many of these cyclones exist in a weak to moderate horizontal temperature gradient region (like mid-latitude cyclones), but also receive much of their energy from convective clouds (like tropical cyclones). Often, these storms have a radius of maximum winds which is farther out (on the order of 100-200 km [60-125 miles] from the center) than what is observed for purely "tropical" systems. Additionally, the maximum sustained winds for sub-tropical cyclones have not been observed to be stronger than about 33 m/s (64 kts, 74 mph)).

An extra-tropical cyclone is a storm system that primarily gets its energy from the horizontal temperature contrasts that exist in the atmosphere. Extra-tropical cyclones (also known as mid-latitude or baroclinic storms) are low pressure systems with associated cold fronts, warm fronts, and occluded fronts.

Tropical cyclones, in contrast, typically have little to no temperature differences across the storm at the surface and their winds are derived from the release of energy due to cloud/rain formation from the warm moist air of the tropics ( Holland 1993, Merrill 1993).


The extra-tropical definition supports the comment by TA13 below as to the baroclinic nature based upon the temp differentials with the cooler air over the top mixing with the warmer air at the surface.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
509 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 -053>056-012200-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...WILMINGTON...
CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...BOLIVIA...
SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...OAK ISLAND...
SOUTHPORT...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON.. .FLORENCE...
MARION...KINGSTREE...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...
GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...MURRELLS INLET
509 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING COLD AIR ALOFT TODAY.
THIS WILL HELP SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST AND MORE PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
Well this would be good news for South FL. they need the rain and not a strong system.

Quoting 51. georgevandenberghe:



Wait a minute. 41 days since Equinox. 50 days to Solstice. We aren't halfway yet.

I try to have first sweetcorn before summer solstice here in Maryland. 1992 and 2003 were the only years I didn't make it.



I always thought May Day (Beltane) was the cross-quarter day.

Just noting per CIMSS (and the local radar loops) that we are starting to see some vort in the low and mid levels around the Carolina outer banks slowly drifting towards the South; not sure if this is the same system we are discussing per the Euro model run:
Northeast sector loop



CMC still on board, it shows it even stronger.
Quoting 63. HurricaneAndre:


GFS still holding to its word.


Keeping it off the coast this run too. 132 hours away, I'll wait a couple days before looking at models and upper level patterns. Playoff hockey this weekend to focus on.
Doom in May !
Quoting MahFL:
Doom in May !


DOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WE ARE ALL DOOMED! THE GREAT DAMAR HAS BROUGHT SHAME ON US ALL! HELP US, DAMAR! DOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
cmc 12z hr 144 10m winds

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cmc 12z hr 144 10m winds



There's no legend, but I'd say 60-70mph winds in this.
Quoting 66. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Well this would be good news for South FL. they need the rain and not a strong system.





Now we just need to get one on the pacific side of things and swing up into California ...that would make me happy
Quoting 75. 62901IL:



There's no legend, but I'd say 60-70mph winds in this.
70 to 80 kmh
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
70 to 80 kmh


So, a 40-50mph storm.

That's not so bad.
Theme song for the possible subtropical system.

Link
cmc 12z hr 156 thur may 7


winds dropped to 60kmh too 70 in gusts
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cmc 12z hr 156 thur may 7


winds dropped to 60kmh too 70 in gusts


And then 30-40mph winds.

Still not so bad.
Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpts:

THE BIGGEST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE HOW MUCH ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HOW DEVELOPED THE SUBTROPICAL
HYBRID LOW
BECOMES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

EVERY MAJOR 00Z/01 OPERATIONAL MODEL SHOWED AT LEAST SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CIRCULATION EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS.

So a SHL is a subtropical/extratropical thingamajig?
Quoting 81. 62901IL:



And then 30-40mph winds.

Still not so bad.
gonna help pump warm air up into the north forecast next thurs calls for temps near 26c 79f humidex may push it to near 90f feel for me that could change but its official forecast at the moment anyway



Thu, 7 May A mix of sun and cloud. High 26
That upper level disturbance, coming out of southern Texas, is the main player in this possible tropical or subtropical system. When this feature interacts with the old frontal boundary, hanging out in the Bahamas, that's when things will get interesting.

Quoting 882MB:
That upper level disturbance, coming out of southern Texas, is the main player in this possible "subtropical system". When this feature interacts with the old frontal boundary, that's when things will get interesting.



Can't wait to see it!
Last month was warmest April on record for parts of area


ST. PETERSBURG --
As we expected, April was the warmest on record for Tampa, St. Petersburg and Lakeland.

Sarasota/Bradenton equalied a record set in 1945.

After a cooler than normal start to the year, the warmth really kicked in around March 1. Except for a few cooler than normal days in late March and one normal day in late April, every day has been above normal for about two months.

The pattern of troughs and cold fronts in the eastern U.S. earlier in the year stopped for Florida in March. Warmth built as the upper-level pattern kept much of the Midwest and East cool, but didn’t allow cold fronts to make much of an impact in Florida. There were no extremes, with no daily high temperatures broken. It was just a daily average over above normal temperatures that persisted for each day, except yesterday, that allowed the record to be broken.

Tampa Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 78.0 2015

2. 76.8 1991

3. 76.6 1947

4. 76.4 1908

5. 76.3 2011 & 2012

St. Petersburg Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 78.6 2015

2. 77.1 1945

3. 77.0 2011

4. 77.0 1947

5. 76.9 2002

Lakeland Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 772. 2015

2. 76.5 1991

3. 76.3 1994

4. 76.2 1922

5. 76.1 2011

Sarasota/Bradenton Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 75.9 2015 (TIE)

2. 75.9 1945

3. 75.1 1994

4. 74.9 1991

5. 74.6 2002

6. 74.6 1947

April was also wet with above normal rainfall in Tampa. Rainfall was 4.82 inches, which is 2.79 inches above normal. But St. Petersburg only had 1.82 inches of rain, which is a little below normal. Lakeland had 2.74 inches, which is almost exactly normal. Sarasota/Bradenton only had 1.66 inches of rain which is about 0.75 inches below normal.
Quoting 76. txjac:




Now we just need to get one on the pacific side of things and swing up into California ...that would make me happy



No kidding, CFS for May is wet wet wet in the Central US and Gulf Coast but has California in "average".


here is gfs as per weather tap hr 168



Quoting 87. SouthCentralTx:



No kidding, CFS for May is wet wet wet in the Central US and Gulf Coast but has California in "average".





Even above average rain wouldn't be much for May, outside of late Fall into the first half of Spring, rainfall is basically non-existent on average in most of California. Going weeks and months during the summer without rain is average for Southern CA.
Quoting 86. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Last month was warmest April on record for parts of area


ST. PETERSBURG --
As we expected, April was the warmest on record for Tampa, St. Petersburg and Lakeland.

Sarasota/Bradenton equalied a record set in 1945.

After a cooler than normal start to the year, the warmth really kicked in around March 1. Except for a few cooler than normal days in late March and one normal day in late April, every day has been above normal for about two months.

The pattern of troughs and cold fronts in the eastern U.S. earlier in the year stopped for Florida in March. Warmth built as the upper-level pattern kept much of the Midwest and East cool, but didn’t allow cold fronts to make much of an impact in Florida. There were no extremes, with no daily high temperatures broken. It was just a daily average over above normal temperatures that persisted for each day, except yesterday, that allowed the record to be broken.

Tampa Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 78.0 2015

2. 76.8 1991

3. 76.6 1947

4. 76.4 1908

5. 76.3 2011 & 2012

St. Petersburg Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 78.6 2015

2. 77.1 1945

3. 77.0 2011

4. 77.0 1947

5. 76.9 2002

Lakeland Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 772. 2015

2. 76.5 1991

3. 76.3 1994

4. 76.2 1922

5. 76.1 2011

Sarasota/Bradenton Top 5 Warmest Aprils

1. 75.9 2015 (TIE)

2. 75.9 1945

3. 75.1 1994

4. 74.9 1991

5. 74.6 2002

6. 74.6 1947

April was also wet with above normal rainfall in Tampa. Rainfall was 4.82 inches, which is 2.79 inches above normal. But St. Petersburg only had 1.82 inches of rain, which is a little below normal. Lakeland had 2.74 inches, which is almost exactly normal. Sarasota/Bradenton only had 1.66 inches of rain which is about 0.75 inches below normal.


It's really weird that St. Petersburg had only 1.82, it must have been in a rain hole, my parents got 3.76 for April which is more representative of other parts of Pinelllas, the crazy thing is that they had no rain at all until the 3 week of the month. All the rain ended up falling in the last couple weeks, putting them above normal for the month.

It was also the warmest April on record here in Tallahassee, and I finished the month with 6.23, and we didn't even get any rain until the 12th. The total is more than double the April average of 3.06.

I'm headed back to the Tampa Bay area on Sunday for the summer, so my local storm reports will be shifting from Tallahassee to the Tampa Bay area. Since my rain gauge here is not automated, I can't leave my rain gauge out for the summer.

Dooom,

small "d".

: P
<-----Moved the Atlantic Hurricane Season to May 1

So best be prepared.

Now.

Hurricane Preparation 2015, a wunderblog

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Gro was right about last month........



regarding enso models and the spring barrier....we hear that there are errors...but until today i never knew how bad.....thanx to the enso blog......the following is a graph...showing how bad they do even when only trying to predict the next quarter.....at best...when trying to predict the following three months of may, june and july...the models are only right just over 30 percent of the time....their error rate is higher each following month


Quoting 87. SouthCentralTx:



No kidding, CFS for May is wet wet wet in the Central US and Gulf Coast but has California in "average".



I've never seen it below "average" for this time of year because "average" for this time of year is basically next to nothing. :^\
wow... in early april the farmers almanac said we would have a hurricane/tropical storm in May. I didn't believe them.... smh.
Quoting 97. geecheegirl:

wow... in early april the farmers almanac said we would have a hurricane/tropical storm in May. I didn't believe them.... smh.
Can you show us. Maybe farmers almanac is up to something.
Great. Now the Weather Channel has something to harp on every seven minutes…until the models prove to be a bit aggressive and nothing tropical develops.
100. FOREX
2015 still predicted to be below normal?