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An African wave worth watching; 2nd warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on July 17, 2009

There's finally a African tropical wave worth mentioning, in what has been a very inactive June/July period for African waves with a potential to develop. A tropical wave near 12N 36W, about 1200 miles west of the coast of Africa, is triggering some modest heavy thunderstorm activity over the open ocean as the storm moves west at 10 - 15 mph. NHC designated this wave 97 L at noon today. Wind shear is a modest 15 knots over the disturbance, which is low enough to allow some slow development over the next few days. As long as the disturbance stays south of Puerto Rico's latitude (18°N), wind shear should remain low enough to allow development. However, there is a substantial amount of African dust and dry air surrounding the system on its west and north sides. This dry air will retard development, and may be able to completely disrupt the disturbance at some point over the next 3 - 4 days. None of the computer models develop the disturbance. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.


Figure 1. The first African wave of 2009 worth watching.

Second warmest June on record
The globe recorded its second warmest June on record, 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - June was the fifth warmest such period on record. Global temperature records go back to 1880. The most notable warmer-than-average temperatures were recorded across parts of Africa and most of Eurasia, where temperatures were 3°C (5°F) or more above average. The global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for June 2009 was the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous June record set in 2005. The record June SSTs were due in part to the development of El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific. If El Niño conditions continue to strengthen during the coming months, we will probably set one or more global warmest-month-on-record marks later this year. The last time Earth experienced a second warmest month on record was in October 2008.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

June sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
June 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record June low was set in 2006. This summer's melt is lagging behind the melting in the summer of 2007, which set the record for the lowest amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic. Forecasts of summer Arctic sea ice melt made in early June by two teams of German scientists put the odds of a new record sea ice minimum this year between 7% and 28%. With the amount of sunlight in the Arctic now on the wane, it appears unlikely that we will set a new record sea ice minimum in 2009. This year will probably have the 2nd or 3rd least sea ice extent on record come September, when the melting season ends. The ice-free seas that nearly surround Greenland now have contributed to temperatures of 2 - 3°C above average over the island over the past ten days. With clear skies and above-average temperatures likely over most of the island for at least the next week, we can expect near-record July melting over portions of the Greenland Ice Sheet this month.

Northwest Passage likely to open for the third consecutive year
The fabled Northwest Passage is more than half clear now, and has a good chance of melting free for the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history. The first recorded attempt to find and sail the Northwest Passage was in 1497, and ended in failure. The thick ice choking the waterways thwarted all attempts at passage for the next four centuries. Finally, in 1905, Roald Amundsen completed the first successful navigation of the Northwest Passage. It took his ship two-and-a-half years to navigate through narrow passages of open water, and his ship spent two cold, dark winters locked in the ice during the feat.

We can be sure the Northwest Passage was never open from 1900 on, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this time. The Northwest passage may have been open at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD.


Figure 3. Ice extent as measured by an AMSR-E microwave satellite sensor on July 15, 2009. Most of the famed Northwest Passage (red lines) has melted out. Image credit: University of Bremen.

References
Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.

I'll have an update on the African tropical wave at least once this weekend if the system doesn't fall apart.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



Blob Part Duex
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Im sounding like a broken record but..
We are going to see Ana soon, no one can stop that.


Most likely in early August imo
2003. MrSea
Wow, last night i was one of the only people who thought the wave at 57W had a chance... overnight some convection blew up... and now the number of people who think it has a chance has increased ten-fold haha.

Today I notice the ULL to the N of the 57W wave which i didnt notice last night. This ULL should keep the shear high over the storm, and I dont think it should develop until Wednesday or Thursday, if at all. By then it should be near the Bahamas.

Keep an eye on 97L. It shouldnt develop in the next 2-3 days, but 4-7 days out it might try to make a comeback.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
it looks like the area of disturbed weather east of martinique is getting better organised and asurface low is trying to form, convection has increased tremendously. the system is moving a little south of west and is getting away from the 30 knot wind shear which was disrupting the northern part of it"s structure. one thing for sure the islands should prepare for flash flooding . the wind here in st lucia is light and coming from the northwest indicative of a developing system
There is one thing to consider regarding 97L and that is that it still has the "sweet spot" between 55 and 63W to pass through. This area has seen near dead systems organize very quickly in the past. I am not saying that will be the case here but 97L may continue to struggle for quite some time until reaching 55W.

If it does not get its act together between those points of long. then nothing would be likely to happen before 73W.
Quoting kmanislander:
There is one thing to consider regarding 97L and that it that it still has the "sweet spot" between 55 and 63W to pass through. This area has seen near dead systems organize very quickly in the past. I am not saying that will be the case here but 97L may continue to struggle for quite some time until reaching 55W.

If it does not get its act together between those points of long. then nothing would be likely to happen before 73W.


Very good point.
The system next to the islands has no chance of forming.That system is getting sheared.Watch 97l fo development from sunday and monday.
I'm sorry if you all dissagree with me, you guys are just too quick in writing off systems/invests. I'm giving it another 24 hours because sometimes DMAX can help systems EVERY OTHER DAY. So one more night, the NHC tends to agree that it has a very low chance, they could have written it off early this morning if they were on the same page with you guys, please have patience. Weather takes patience..
I agree with Storm Junkie. I feel very sorry for all the damages a disaster like a hurricane causes, but the rush of adrenaline is tremendous; having survive countless storms and hurricanes in my long life in the island of P.R.(54 years old).
Don't write 97L off yet, once it gets into a better enviroment all bets are off. The farther west it goes the warmer SST's it finds. Shear over the Caribbean is destructive ATM, but its lessening as we speak as was indicated by the Shear models, and will likely go into a more favorable pattern. Besides, Its also possible that 97L will run into that massive blob of convection and help to instigate something.. again then all bets are off. Wait and see.
It looks to me like 97L is trying to relocate just west of 45W. I see the vorticity trying to pick up. JMO
Weather456 will be completing an update soon and will be released in a few minutes. Can't tell you where it will be posted at, as it will get me banned and hope you can read between the lines. Hope you all understand what i mean.....gotta run...everyone have a good day!
wind shear is decreasing in both 97l and west atlantic AOI
Link
Recent ASCAT pass on 97L.
He's around Oss, popped in for a minute yesterday...Perfect example of someone who wants to see it if it is going to happen...I don't really think he wishes on anyone though.
Here is the one item I bring up to all here. While the waves we currently have out there may or may not have potential. The one thing to consider is this:

Though they may not be active right now, what they are doing in effect is ingesting the dry air that was hampering systems before. That environment is going to be ripe for a wave to come along and get organized.
Actually the one to watch will be the Blob near the islands as its holding together well considering all the shear. If it makes it past the shear into the Caribbean we might have something to watch.
did anyone find out why it was named 97 and not 95
Quoting kmanislander:
There is one thing to consider regarding 97L and that is that it still has the "sweet spot" between 55 and 63W to pass through. This area has seen near dead systems organize very quickly in the past. I am not saying that will be the case here but 97L may continue to struggle for quite some time until reaching 55W.

If it does not get its act together between those points of long. then nothing would be likely to happen before 73W.


Kman,
How is the Cruise? See Orca? True the wave axis remains as the system goes forward so if it does hit a good area it might develop down the road.
As 97L remains weak and disorganized this will keep it more on a W track with the low level flow. The models will probably trend further S into the central Caribbean.

It definately bears watching down the road.
If the center is relocating which by the ASCAT pass it looks like it is, this is not a bad looking storm, there is convection, and some bands..
2024. Grothar
I am new to this blog, so I am sure this may have been asked before. Who declares a system as an Invest. Is it the Navy site, NHC or another organization. It would appear the system closer to the Antilles has a better appearance. However, is it a mid-level or low-level circulation?
Question, last year we saw many storms relocate themselves to avoid shear and such. is this the thing with this storm?
wow 97L IS MOVING AT WEST AT 23 MPH...
2029. Patrap
97L isnt relocating a new center,its still the same small Circ its always been..
Quoting kmanislander:
As 97L remains weak and disorganized this will keep it more on a W track with the low level flow. The models will probably trend further S into the central Caribbean.

It definately bears watching down the road.


Thanks, K'man - most reasonable thing said this morning. Thanks. Enjoy your trip, friend.
2031. WxLogic
This is becoming quite a complex WX scenerio and quite a bit of variables that would allow or prevent tropical development... I'm hoping to get a better picture of how things might look by this afternoon.
Quoting kmanislander:
As 97L remains weak and disorganized this will keep it more on a W track with the low level flow. The models will probably trend further S into the central Caribbean.

It definately bears watching down the road.

I agree 100%
Quoting Grothar:
I am new to this blog, so I am sure this may have been asked before. Who declares a system as an Invest. Is it the Navy site, NHC or another organization. It would appear the system closer to the Antilles has a better appearance. However, is it a mid-level or low-level circulation?


NHC
2034. Patrap
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wind shear is decreasing in both 97l and west atlantic AOI
Link
when was this released this morning
2036. 7544
hmm wave no 1 is looking very good this am

as for 97l not too good but when it reaches the same area that wave no 1 is in might do the same thing imo . does any one know if wave one by 50 w is going to take the same track as 97l is expected to take as per the computer models thanks
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
wow 97L IS MOVING AT WEST AT 23 MPH...

what show me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 7544:
hmm wave no 1 is looking very good this am

as for 97l not too good but when it reaches the same area that wave no 1 is in might do the same thing imo . does any one know if wave one by 50 w is going to take the same track as 97l is expected to take as per the computer models thanks


So called "Wave 1" is under a ton of shear too.
Quoting sporteguy03:


Kman,
How is the Cruise? See Orca? True the wave axis remains as the system goes forward so if it does hit a good area it might develop down the road.


My apologies if this is a double post as my fist reply did not show. We get on the ship in a few hours so no Orca yet !.

Flew around Vancouver yesterday in a vintage float plane with a big radial engine. Sat in the co-pilot's seat but no controls on my side LOL.

This is a fabulous city.
2040. 7544
Quoting extreme236:


So called "Wave 1" is under a ton of shear too.


agrree but who would know it it looks the best ive seen it yet
have any of the models hint to the possibility of this freaky low that now is in the GOM doing anything???
Wind graphics from CIMSS have not updated since 0600 UTC, almost 10 hours ago.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Wind graphics from CIMSS have not updated since 0600 UTC, almost 10 hours ago.
would you know when they are going to be updated ????


pr/leeward floater
2045. 7544
ok according to local mets this wave no 1 should be in se fla on wendsday hmmm
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


pr/leeward floater

DAMN who jinxed us from a quiet season lol
Quoting Seflhurricane:
would you know when they are going to be updated ????


Normally they update every 3 hours, so they must be having issues, seems to happen alot on weekends.
i bet the tropical wave near the islands will have a orange circle at 2PM TODAY
Quoting TampaSpin:
Weather456 Tropical Update


Based on Weathher456, the first tropical wave is the one to watch. I did look at the models but in addition to the GFS, CMC and UKMET, the ECMWF thinks the wave will develop too.
2052. DVG
What do y'all make of thiese variables I see as in place.

The blob near the islands, upper low NE of it, another upper low NNE of that low, and 97 approaching the blob.

Seems hard to figure out.
2053. IKE
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i bet the tropical wave near the islands will have a orange circle at 2PM TODAY


There's little doubt that would develop if not for the shear.

Props to CIMSS for not updating shear maps for hours...ugh!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


pr/leeward floater

Wouldn't this follow the steering current west
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i bet the tropical wave near the islands will have a orange circle at 2PM TODAY


Too much shear around it. most likely it will stay in code yellow
i think the 1st wave is the one to watch also...trust me i'm no expert at all, but just the way the past few years have gone..alot of the systems are developing in different ways...so it's like the old normal systems are being replaced with the uh-oh systems...just my thoughts, but does make you wonder sometimes..that's what makes watching these crazy things so much fun....
Kman - have a good trip & bring back some pics of the whales.
Quoting IKE:


There's little doubt that would develop if not for the shear.

Props to CIMSS for not updating shear maps for hours...ugh!


Mornign IKE..
One thing I've noticed with systems with DMAX, it happens every other night, like Pre-Dolly, always flared up every other night from what I can remember, so I'm not giving up on it yet, I also think a new low might be forming around 44W and 11N. Call me crazy, feed me crow.. Though ASCAT showed a possible circulation there as well.


enhance wv image 1125 am edt
2061. 7544
maybe 97l will join forces with wave at 50 if 97l i s moving faster like someone said at 23 mph could get interesting
2062. Patrap
Grammar Queens ,..LOL
Quoting reedzone:


Mornign IKE..
One thing I've noticed with systems with DMAX, it happens every other night, like Pre-Dolly, always flared up every other night from what I can remember, so I'm not giving up on it yet, I also think a new low might be forming around 44W and 11N. Call me crazy, feed me crow.. Though ASCAT showed a possible circulation there as well.

I was also thinking that there was something in that area
Hong Kong Observatory

** WTSS20 VHHH 181346 ***

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 181200 UTC, THE TYPHOON MOLAVE (0906) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ONE
SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.
2065. IKE
From the 8:05 AM EDST TWD...

"A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N51W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N52W TO 24N55W TO 19N59W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.
OTHER RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W."
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TYPHOON MOLAVE (T0609)
21:00 PM JST July 18 2009
============================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Molave (975 hPa) located at 22.3N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.4N 110.7E - Tropical Depression
Quoting zoomiami:
Kman - have a good trip & bring back some pics of the whales.


Will do. Got some great aerial shots of Vancouver yesterday. Flew over the city at 1600 feet.
The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

The Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 8 is expected to
be issued at or before 11:30 p.m. today (18 Jul 2009).


Molave will get very close to Hong Kong. Winds locally
will significantly strengthen within the next few hours.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


enhance wv image 1125 am edt

how did it get this way in that amount of wind shear last night i went to bed and it looked like crap
2070. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


Mornign IKE..
One thing I've noticed with systems with DMAX, it happens every other night, like Pre-Dolly, always flared up every other night from what I can remember, so I'm not giving up on it yet, I also think a new low might be forming around 44W and 11N. Call me crazy, feed me crow.. Though ASCAT showed a possible circulation there as well.


I said this yesterday...the wave nearing the islands looked like 97L looks, actually worse, when it was where 97L is at.
Quoting daleh:
Please run your comments through a grammar editor. A Ph.D should not say "a African". Obama is not setting a model in this respect either, as he frequently says things like "a example".


Drak is that you?
Quoting IKE:


I said this yesterday...the wave nearing the islands looked like 97L looks, actually worse, when it was where 97L is at.


It seems to me the wave near the islands is moistening the environment. I think 97L could make this DMAX tonight. Especially with that wave blowing up, it's creating more moisture in that area, it's really setting the stage for 97L.
2073. Patrap
Seems someone misses somebody..LOL
Quoting reedzone:


It seems to me the wave near the islands is moistening the environment. I think 97L could make this DMAX tonight. Especially with that wave blowing up, it's creating more moisture in that area, it's really setting the stage for 97L.

wow i have never seen teamwork between to waves before lol.
It looks like 97L entered an area of 28-29 sst.

Go here and activate sst box
Quoting reedzone:


It seems to me the wave near the islands is moistening the environment. I think 97L could make this DMAX tonight. Especially with that wave blowing up, it's creating more moisture in that area, it's really setting the stage for 97L.

maybe we see a strong ts or weak hurricane in central carribean from both systems very soon
Rain has started again. Wind picking up a bit and pressure dropping.

At Waglan Island the pressure is down to ~990 hPa and pushing down towards ~991hPa at the HK Observatory.

Another couple of hours for Typhoon Molave's eyewall to hit...
Before we start ooooing and awwwing about that wave to the west of 97L, If im not mistaken wind shear can actuall help fire oup convection, but it doesnt mean its organizing
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

maybe we see a strong ts or weak hurricane in central carribean from both systems very soon

no way to much shear we could maybe keyword maybe get a td or a weak ts
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
Rain has started again. Wind picking up a bit and pressure dropping.

At Waglan Island the pressure is down to ~990 hPa and pushing down towards ~991hPa at the HK Observatory.

Another couple of hours for Typhoon Molave's eyewall to hit...

Stay safe
2081. 7544
possible Link
anything can happen even with shear
woah lol
Acemmett90

The shear is supposed to lessen over the next few days....creating a more favorable environment for 97L
no way to much shear we could maybe keyword maybe get a td or a weak ts

wind shear is becoming weaker and weaker
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60/61W...MOVING W AROUND 18 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE MORE W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...THEN REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 69W BY EARLY MON...JAMAICA ON TUE...AND THE NICARAGUAN COAST WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY TUE...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 68W BY EARLY WED. THE TRADE WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES.
2086. IKE
12Z GFS has the wave that's approaching the islands continuing to move just north of west.
Oh here ya are Ruuuufus Baker!!
The convection does look impressive for the islands wave... It does look like 97L could catch up to it.. I dont think 97L will go quite as far north as the models say... thinking its going to maybe get into the northern part of the carrib
Quoting AllStar17:
Acemmett90

The shear is supposed to lessen over the next few days....creating a more favorable environment for 97L

that i know but i am also taking in the nhc >30% chance of forming
I expect all the models to shift south, and become in line with the LBAR.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

The Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 8 is expected to
be issued at or before 11:30 p.m. today (18 Jul 2009).


Molave will get very close to Hong Kong. Winds locally
will significantly strengthen within the next few hours.



T8 is now up.
---
NO. 8 NORTH-WEST GALE OR STORM FORCE SIGNAL WAS ISSUED AT 23:30 HKT ON 18.07.2009
---
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
no way to much shear we could maybe keyword maybe get a td or a weak ts

wind shear is becoming weaker and weaker

i just did that to see what you would say
would you say mocking the downcasters on this blog lol
Quoting AllStar17:
I expect all the models to shift south, and become in line with the LBAR.


They almost always shift south
Acemmett90

That probability, however, remember is only for the next 48 hours. It is not a probability that the storm will ever be named.
2095. 7544
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS has the wave that's approaching the islands continuing to move just north of west.


thats a little more north than the last run watch where it will go on the nest couple of frames
I'm pretty sure the blob ahead of the wave is just diffluence from the sheer that (was) in the area. Unfortunately theres no way to tell for sure, but it does have a nice little almost 90 degree angle there in the northwest.

Good morning everyone, still watching Invest 97L closely, but what is the huge blob around Puerto Rico, please explaine, thanks.
Quoting AllStar17:
Acemmett90

That probability, however, remember is only for the next 48 hours. It is not a probability that the storm will ever be named.

good point but we in south florida and even the east coast need to watch both of these very very closely
Still spinning, but it needs convection to survive.



Allstar--
I agree... I don't think it's going to pick up that far north... it's too weak and will follow the steering current.. the models have called for a sharper WNW-Nw track the whole time and it hasn't really happened... its been pretty much west with a little movement just north of west..jmo
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
Rain has started again. Wind picking up a bit and pressure dropping.

At Waglan Island the pressure is down to ~990 hPa and pushing down towards ~991hPa at the HK Observatory.

Another couple of hours for Typhoon Molave's eyewall to hit...




712

WTPN31 PGTW 181500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 014

UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07W

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

181200Z --- NEAR 22.3N 115.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF

SATELLITE AND RADAR

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 115.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

190000Z --- 23.2N 113.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

191200Z --- 23.8N 111.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 115.2E.

TYPHOON (TY) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF HONG

KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS AND HAS INTENSIFIED

FROM A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED

IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS AND LATEST

RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE

TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HONG KONG AFTER

TAU 06 THEN TRACK INLAND INTO CHINA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT

WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, AND

190300Z.//
2102. 7544
Quoting Acemmett90:

good point but we in south florida and even the east coast need to watch both of these very very closely


yeap and with all the local mets saying it will be approching so fla on wends but only as a wave for now but if the shar is lessening anything can happen close to land
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

They almost always shift south
yeah but the BAMS actually shifted northward since yesterday.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
no way to much shear we could maybe keyword maybe get a td or a weak ts

wind shear is becoming weaker and weaker


How many times does wunderkidcayman have to say to everybody that shear will lessen. Just a friendly reminder, please read the comments posted on the blog( last 200 or less) before you start assuming or ask a question. thanks!
But even with shear ANNA is coming, albeit weak, we will have a storm to track.. heres why inmho"

The wave to the west has created HUGE amounts of moisture for 97L, regardless if it forms 97L will catch up to all of the moisture and tonight around dmax time 4-6am eastern time, we may see 1 system reall blow up. any thoughts?
Dr M has a new blog up

See y'all later
Quoting canesrule1:
yeah but the BAMS actually shifted northward since yesterday.

Yeah. But won't the steering current carry it west.
Quoting Acemmett90:

good point but we in south florida and even the east coast need to watch both of these very very closely
true, hey accemett i live in Miami, just wondering where do u live in south florida?
2109. IKE
From the Miami,FL. early morning discussion...

"POPS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WAVE AT 00Z WAS ANALYZED BY TAFB AT 58W
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH A MOVEMENT WEST AT 15 KNOTS,
AND ACCORDING TO THE GFS40 AND ECMWF, BRING IT TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS40 TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE
AND HIGH PWATS UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO LIFTS OUT OR WEAKENS BY WEDNESDAY AND THINK THAT THE WAVE
MAY ACTUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN
RATHER HIGH POPS OVER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE
STAYED WITH 50 PERCENT FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN LATER PACKAGES."
Quoting tropicfreak:


How many times does wunderkidcayman have to say to everybody that shear will lessen. Just a friendly reminder, please read the comments posted on the blog( last 200 or less) before you start assuming or ask a question. thanks!

oook
2111. cg2916
I can't believe the haven't named the area near ther Antilles an Invest.
Quoting Funkadelic:
But even with shear ANNA is coming, albeit weak, we will have a storm to track.. heres why inmho"

The wave to the west has created HUGE amounts of moisture for 97L, regardless if it forms 97L will catch up to all of the moisture and tonight around dmax time 4-6am eastern time, we may see 1 system reall blow up. any thoughts?


I have to agree with you on that. If the system to the west holds together, we could have 2 named storms.
new blog!!!
Quoting canesrule1:
true, hey accemett i live in Miami, just wondering where do u live in south florida?

Palm Beach
Quoting tropicfreak:


I have to agree with you on that. If the system to the west holds together, we could have 2 named storms.

yes ana, bill maybe
2116. cg2916
New blog!!!
2117. Grothar
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Thanks for the info. In your opinion, which of the two disturbances has the best chance of developing? Invest 97L or the system closest to the islands?
Quoting AllStar17:
I expect all the models to shift south, and become in line with the LBAR.

Everybody, please understand what each models does before making predictions based on models.
Quoting 7544:


yeap and with all the local mets saying it will be approching so fla on wends but only as a wave for now but if the shar is lessening anything can happen close to land
They have it/them possibly approaching SFla due to their expected weak characteristics. If they were to strengthen I would expect them to transverse on a more Westerly path and be well below Florida.
Quoting tropicfreak:


How many times does wunderkidcayman have to say to everybody that shear will lessen. Just a friendly reminder, please read the comments posted on the blog( last 200 or less) before you start assuming or ask a question. thanks!
So it should be a very quiet blog in your opinion ? Almost everything that somebody says is repeated more than once. Its a discussion and not all people who come on at various times need to, nor are they required to, read all previous pages of the blog. This is a blog and thats what blogs are for. People are going to repeat themselves and repeat others, Thats the way it is and has been so you might as well deal with it.
ok, am I the only one here ??? *hearing crickets chirping*
Quoting hunkerdown:
ok, am I the only one here ??? *hearing crickets chirping*

new blog
The vorticity on 97L isn't as broad as this morning: