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An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Yoboi asks a lot of questions and gets a lot of answers. He then reads through what he's been given and cherry picks what he wants to dispute and call into question. All the while not discussing the truth of what information he's been given, just what he has an issue with. I will give him this, he's usually very polite and respectful though.
Quoting 2000. JLPR2:
Not discounting the TW South of the CV islands. Excellent vorticity in the mid levels (500mb and 700mb), surface vort is slightly displaced to the west and weaker, but still there.

It's moving a lot of Atmosphere and has lots of precipitate water with it, it's biggest problem is the lack of convection.





I also see convection to the north that may help the next waves with less dry air.
2003. JLPR2
Quoting 2002. Tropicsweatherpr:


I also see convection to the north that may help the next waves with less dry air.


Even though there is SAL just to its NW there seems to be enough moisture South and East of it to fight it off.

Also, it seems the 500mb and 700mb vorts, which are aligned, are moving along with the convection, those vorts seem strong enough to either pull the 850mb(surface spin) towards it or develop a new one under it.





And well... even if it doesn't manage anything, at least it's something to watch and analyse. XD
Quoting 1998. Tribucanes:


I love your attitude, sounds fair and kind. Yoboi has been asking the same questions for over a year. The same ones over and over and over. He has been answered by many many very very thoroughly. He takes the critic standpoint, refuses to actually seek, but instead comes back the next day and ask the same exact questions with the same exact criticism of the science. He gives cynical responses and can't or won't give up on his denial stances. If you've been asking the same questions for over a year and have been given the science in finite detail, it's not that you can't get it; it's that you refuse to.


Aaahh. That makes sense. I wasn't looking at it from your point of view. I've often thought that some of you on WU have the patience of Job in explaining AGW. I guess I would be frustrated as well, if I had to repeat myself ad infinitum. If this was 20 or 30 years ago, w/o the proliferation of websites and "news" media that are sleekly packaged, yet loaded with misleading information, I think there would be a whole lot less refusal to grasp the concepts and the reality of the situation.

Sorry to interfere, Trib. I'll stay out of it next time :)
Quoting 1994. TropicalAnalystwx13:

8-10-10

Sure sounds familiar.



Sure does.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON UTOR (T1311)
9:00 AM JST August 11 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Utor (955 hPa) located at 14.5N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.9N 122.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 19.1N 117.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 20.9N 113.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
2007. Patrap
00z Best Track for Utor up to Cat 3. (100kts)

11W UTOR 130811 0000 14.4N 125.9E WPAC 100 948
I know a little off topic but the Amber Alert for Hannah Anderson that was in effect for California and Idaho is over now. Hannah was found safe and her kidnapper was killed.


On a weather note, it looks like there will be great viewing conditions for the meteor shower
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/WPAC/11W.UTOR /ir/geo/1km/20130810.2332.mtsat2.x.ir1km.11WUTOR.100kts-948mb-144N-1259E.100pc.jpg

Quoting 1944. Doppler22:
Darn, the Orioles lost. Oh well. It looks like it'll be a nice few days ahead. I will be visiting the Natural Bridge in Virginia... Any body ever been there?


Yup. Luray Caverns is worth a visit too :)
121, was devastated all day at work that we lost our storm.

There'll be others, right?
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Himalayas to be wetter and warmer over next century

WRAPUP 1-In North Asia, a growing crisis of confidence in nuclear power

Aloha! Flat-topped coral shows up off Oahu coast for first time


Hey! I got the 2013rd comment in 2013 again :) Coincidence?
Quoting 2011. BaltimoreBrian:


Yup. Luray Caverns is worth a visit too :)

Is it a nice place to go (Natural Bridge)? This is the first time i've heard of it :p
Asheville is a nice little city! Here's the picture of downtown...



The mountains surrounding the city is beautiful as well! This is my view from a hotel SW of Asheville. Picture doesn't do it a justice.

I am watching 3 tropical waves
Quoting 2013. BaltimoreBrian:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.


Aloha! Flat-topped coral shows up off Oahu coast for first time




Interesting discovery there.
Blog is quiet tonight. I don't see anything on the horizon. Models are all over this place.

Wind shear is still screaming in the Caribbean. I thought we might see something by Wed-Fri this week but it looks like a few more days.
Blog is very quiet. A system to track can't come too soon.
2020. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
Nothing impressive with these waves. I think the season is ..........just getting started.



Big mess moving into the islands.





Nice showers here most of the day. Gentle and soaking rain.
Thunder to the north.
Glorious sunset.

Life is good.
2021. Patrap
Quoting 2020. pottery:

Nice showers here most of the day. Gentle and soaking rain.
Thunder to the north.
Glorious sunset.

Life is good.


Wait for it oh mighty BlobMaster :)
Quoting 2019. unknowncomic:
Blog is very quiet. A system to track can't come too soon.


What do you mean it can't come too soon?
Quoting 2016. iloveweather15:
I am watching 3 tropical waves


When does that model show that happening?
So noone follows the W Pacific and can share some knowledge on Utor - intensity, potential threats and damage, how big of a storm might this turn out be...

looks to me like a steadily intensifying hurricane that mighht not stop until right before landfall in Luzon. Manila is infamous for flooding, IMO this could turn out very bad :/

Anyone with knowledge on the subject?
2026. Grothar
Quoting 2020. pottery:

Nice showers here most of the day. Gentle and soaking rain.
Thunder to the north.
Glorious sunset.

Life is good.


I bet you even whistle when you wake up in the morning. GRRRRRR.


Quoting 2023. mitchelace5:


What do you mean it can't come too soon?
To liven up the blog. It will within a couple of weeks.
Low shear over a good chunk of the MDR in 180 hrs. 50 W seems like a likely area for development around that time. SST getting warmer by the day and Kelvin and Mr Mojo making an appearance also.
Quoting 2026. Grothar:


I bet you even whistle when you wake up in the morning. GRRRRRR.


In the long range Models... Pottery is going to get his. It shows multiples over his house.

2029. Grothar
Quoting 2018. clwstmchasr:
Blog is quiet tonight. I don't see anything on the horizon. Models are all over this place.

Wind shear is still screaming in the Caribbean. I thought we might see something by Wed-Fri this week but it looks like a few more days.


Yes, the blog is quiet tonight. I even found myself having a conversation with Mrs. Grothar over dinner. She even remarked, "The tropics must be quiet?
Henriette is falling apart as it lost most of the thunderstorm activity.

Quoting 2026. Grothar:


I bet you even whistle when you wake up in the morning. GRRRRRR.
I assume your doctor said you are going to live.
Quoting 2014. Doppler22:

Is it a nice place to go (Natural Bridge)? This is the first time i've heard of it :p


Yup
2033. Grothar
Quoting 2028. Orcasystems:


In the long range Models... Pottery is going to get his. It shows multiples over his house.



Is that Steve McQueen running out of the diner?
2034. Grothar
Quoting 2031. unknowncomic:
I assume your doctor said you are going to live.


I don't know, I had to postpone it. They'll let me know sooner or later.
Quoting 2033. Grothar:


Is that Steve McQueen running out of the diner?


I don't know.. I'm not that old..we would have to ask RTLSNK
Quoting 2034. Grothar:


I don't know, I had to postpone it. They'll let me know sooner or later.
I'm a procrastinator and putting off my funeral too.
2039. yoboi
Quoting 1998. Tribucanes:


I love your attitude, sounds fair and kind. Yoboi has been asking the same questions for over a year. The same ones over and over and over. He has been answered by many many very very thoroughly. He takes the critic standpoint, refuses to actually seek, but instead comes back the next day and ask the same exact questions with the same exact criticism of the science. He gives cynical responses and can't or won't give up on his denial stances. If you've been asking the same questions for over a year and have been given the science in finite detail, it's not that you can't get it; it's that you refuse to.



I am sorry that I am not an expert with climate change like you.......I am actually trying to learn.....forgive me.... I did not know asking questions was a bad thing......If it makes you feel better....keeping talking down to me......if you keep trying to push me into a fight or flight response I will not take the flight response........
2040. Grothar
Quoting 2036. Orcasystems:


I don't know.. I'm not that old..we would have to ask RTLSNK


:) He would know.
Quoting 2034. Grothar:


I don't know, I had to postpone it. They'll let me know sooner or later.


Jeg horte at du skulle bli den nye stjernen her. Snakk om typecasting!
Quoting 2040. Grothar:


:) He would know.


He might have to ask his much older neighbor...oh wait..sorry..that's you :)
Quoting 2034. Grothar:


I don't know, I had to postpone it. They'll let me know sooner or later.
Don't pay your doctor bills in full.
They won't let you die as long as you have a balance due.
Quoting 1730. KoritheMan:


OMG OMG OMG
LOL LOL LOL it's been awhile aye Kori? Good evening everyone. Hot and humid night here along the West Coast of FL. feels like an oven out there.
Quoting 2029. Grothar:


Yes, the blog is quiet tonight. I even found myself having a conversation with Mrs. Grothar over dinner. She even remarked, "The tropics must be quiet?


Does the wife ever get on the blog or would worlds collide (Seinfeld) if she did?
Quoting 2021. Patrap:
What's that pink stuff over Texas, it can't be rain can it?
2047. Kumo
Quoting 1937. RTSplayer:


Considering the most rapid part of the melt season is already past, I highly doubt any new record minimum would be set at all, and this may actually reset the whole melt scenario by a few years...


If solar cycle 24 continues to underperform to expectations and cycle 25 has an even weaker solar maximum as many solar physicists are predicting, combine this with a couple of VE6 volcanic explosions, and we could push that back even further. If by chance it happens, it won't mean that we can just forget about our mess, we'd still need to do some cleanup and continue R&D on alternate energy. Coal and oil ain't going to last forever.
Quoting 2020. pottery:

Nice showers here most of the day. Gentle and soaking rain.
Thunder to the north.
Glorious sunset.

Life is good.
Trinidad and Tobago is a nice place. Can't wait to go for Mas it's only the best Carnival in the islands. :D
Quoting 2032. BaltimoreBrian:


Yup

Thanks
2050. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


In the long range Models... Pottery is going to get his. It shows multiples over his house.



Yeah, I noticed that...
And you sound rather pleased about it, too. :):))
But I'll have you know that I've been sowing the seeds of doubt hither and thither.
By my constant harping-on about ''there will be nothing in August'' I've probably angered the Weather Demons (I think I've angered some bloggers too, LOL).

Anyway, yer wrong.
Those Blobs you are seeing are just figments of your twisted mind.
Or was that Grothar? I can never remember who saw them first.

heheheheh
2051. pottery
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Trinidad and Tobago is a nice place. Can't wait to go for Mas it's only the best Carnival in the islands. :D


Just do it.
It's a Complete Blast.
Especially Panorama.
2052. Grothar
Quoting 2041. BaltimoreBrian:


Jeg horte at du skulle bli den nye stjernen her. Snakk om typecasting!


You would be better off writing to me in Danish. Your Norwegian is terrible.
2053. pottery
See you guys in the morning.\
Stay safe, all.
Quoting 2050. pottery:


Yeah, I noticed that...
And you sound rather pleased about it, too. :):))
But I'll have you know that I've been sowing the seeds of doubt hither and thither.
By my constant harping-on about ''there will be nothing in August'' I've probably angered the Weather Demons (I think I've angered some bloggers too, LOL).

Anyway, yer wrong.
Those Blobs you are seeing are just figments of your twisted mind.
Or was that Grothar? I can never remember who saw them first.

heheheheh


I am waiting for them to start... and you changing your avatar to Mold Man. (without the pink shoes please)
Quoting 2050. pottery:


I've probably angered the Weather Demons (I think I've angered some bloggers too, LOL).



Naaahh, bud, but I did post to you at #1154. Think maybe you had left before I got it posted. ;)
Quoting 2052. Grothar:


You would be better off writing to me in Danish. Your Norwegian is terrible.


What's the difference ;) *hides*
Quoting 2029. Grothar:


Yes, the blog is quiet tonight. I even found myself having a conversation with Mrs. Grothar over dinner. She even remarked, "The tropics must be quiet?


Did you ever fix your Chrome? I haven't had a chance to mess with it what with work. Still on explorer until I get a day off.
WP, 11, 2013081100, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1259E, 100, 948, XX, 34, NEQ, 115, 100, 100, 115, 1005, 200, 15, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 280, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,

Further strengthening is forecast prior to landfall. JTWC calling for 110kts.

2059. Grothar
Quoting 2045. clwstmchasr:


Does the wife ever get on the blog or would worlds collide (Seinfeld) if she did?


She doesn't believe in blogging. She has often said if she ever insults someone she would rather do it in person. She still does not believe I joined a blog. She is mostly Swedish. They are very reserved people you know.
2060. Grothar
Quoting 2056. BaltimoreBrian:


What's the difference ;) *hides*


Not much.
Quoting 2060. Grothar:


Not much.


Well there's always good ole Nynorsk ;)
2062. Grothar
Quoting 2057. redwagon:


Did you ever fix your Chrome? I haven't had a chance to mess with it what with work. Still on explorer until I get a day off.


I am not on Chrome anymore. I've had too much trouble. I have been on Firefox, but still having a lot of trouble with plug-ins.
Not at our house, we did receive 1/100th of an inch according to our rain gauge - the ground never got wet. SAD
Quoting 2046. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What's that pink stuff over Texas, it can't be rain can it?

Quoting 2025. skycycle:
So noone follows the W Pacific and can share some knowledge on Utor - intensity, potential threats and damage, how big of a storm might this turn out be...

looks to me like a steadily intensifying hurricane that mighht not stop until right before landfall in Luzon. Manila is infamous for flooding, IMO this could turn out very bad :/

Anyone with knowledge on the subject?


Many follow WPAC. For WPAC, in a nutshell...often the makings for rapid intensification, more strong storms than elsewhere on average, a right mess in the making at any time. They are used to it over there in a way. Though the infrastructure may not be, it's nothing uncommon, especially in say the Phillipines, they are in the line of fire quite often. Usually many amazing storms every year over there...and sadly many deadly ones though. Hard analysis, myself don't have time to go into any in any basin, but never trust a WPAC storm!
Quoting 2046. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What's that pink stuff over Texas, it can't be rain can it?


GT, whatever on earth did you do to the FIMset? It was a TX GO for weeks! Can you please fix it back? Patrap doesn't want this. Gro doesn't, either.
Quoting 2062. Grothar:


I am not on Chrome anymore. I've had too much trouble. I have been on Firefox, but still having a lot of trouble with plug-ins.


Adblock helps
2067. Grothar
Quoting 2061. BaltimoreBrian:


Well there's always good ole Bokmal ;)


Bokmål is what I speak and write. I do not use Nynorsk at all. I understand it, but never use it. I do have friends that speak it.
Quoting 2060. Grothar:


Not much.


I always thought of the three (Swedish Danish Norwegian) of them as one country (Scandinavia) with 3 provinces :)

Sort of like the Carols (North & South Carolina)

(now I will run and hide)
2069. Grothar
Quoting 2066. BaltimoreBrian:


Adblock helps


I have Adblock, still doesn't allow certain scripts to run. I never had that problem with IE
Quoting 2059. Grothar:


She doesn't believe in blogging. She has often said if she ever insults someone she would rather do it in person. She still does not believe I joined a blog. She is mostly Swedish. They are very reserved people you know.


Well, she is wise in staying away. It can get ugly here sometimes.
Quoting 2058. MiamiHurricanes09:

Further strengthening is forecast prior to landfall. JTWC calling for 110kts.


TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

might be closer to category four of 115 knots after 24 hours

usually a T6.0 is 95 knots (JMA 10 min sustained winds)
Quoting 2039. yoboi:



I am sorry that I am not an expert with climate change like you.......I am actually trying to learn.....forgive me.... I did not know asking questions was a bad thing......If it makes you feel better....keeping talking down to me......if you keep trying to push me into a fight or flight response I will not take the flight response........


yoboi, in no way was I speaking down to you, just stating facts of how you've been asking the same questions for over a year and how you've been given detailed answers over and over and yet you come back with the same questions. I was pointing out how you get answers to your questions and then respond with only how you disagree with some cherry picked piece of information you've been given and never wanting to discuss the relevance of what you've been given. If you could explain to me how you haven't been able to connect the dots with all the great information provided to you over the last year to the extent you keep asking the same questions that have been answered time and time again at length, then I might understand your difficulties. I'm no expert, I just love to know the truth, and I arrive at that by detailed research, which is out there for anyone to seek. In fact Dr. Masters draws out a map on this very subject, right here at WU, which is impossible to not follow, unless one is choosing on ideological reasons not too.
2073. Grothar
Quoting 2068. Orcasystems:


I always thought of the three (Swedish Danish Norwegian) of them as one country (Scandinavia) with 3 provinces :)

Sort of like the Carols (North & South Carolina)

(now I will run and hide)



GRRRRRR. We are nothing alike. We've invaded each other for hundreds of years though. We actually do understand each other's languages. They really are more like dialects than separate languages. The Danes and Norwegians write the same, but the pronunciation is much different. We understand the Swedes more, but don't like them very much. J/k
Quoting 2062. Grothar:


I am not on Chrome anymore. I've had too much trouble. I have been on Firefox, but still having a lot of trouble with plug-ins.


Tehda ohjaus-alt-delete ja sitten katsoa prosessin ja klikkaa plugin astiaan ja sitten Lopeta prosessi.
There's some weird bright light coming out of a big black mass in the sky over my house, think I'm gonna call LEO, or maybe the HOA. It's making a racket, too.
Quoting 2073. Grothar:



GRRRRRR. We are nothing alike. We've invaded each other for hundreds of years though. We actually do understand each other's languages. They really are more like dialects than separate languages. The Danes and Norwegians write the same, but the pronunciation is much different. We understand the Swedes more, but don't like them very much. J/k


Norway became re-independent surprisingly late in 1905.
Quoting 2071. HadesGodWyvern:


TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

might be closer to category four of 115 knots after 24 hours

usually a T6.0 is 95 knots (JMA 10 min sustained winds)
Very possible. It still has plenty of time over water before being disrupted by any landmass. If current trends continue, it should have no trouble reaching category 4 intensity.
2079. Grothar
Quoting 2043. CosmicEvents:
Don't pay your doctor bills in full.
They won't let you die as long as you have a balance due.


My cell phone and cable are on a daily plan.
2080. Grothar
Quoting 2074. BaltimoreBrian:


Tehda ohjaus-alt-delete ja sitten katsoa prosessin ja klikkaa plugin astiaan ja sitten Lopeta prosessi.


Yritän sitä. Se on hyvä asia LakeWorthFinn ei ole täällä.

2081. Grothar
Utor is one mean looking storm.

Quoting 2080. Grothar:


Yritän sitä. Se on hyvä asia LakeWorthFinn ei ole täällä.



Se on viela parempi asia LakeWorthFinn ei ole moderaattori!
Quoting 2076. redwagon:
There's some weird bright light coming out of a big black mass in the sky over my house, think I'm gonna call LEO, or maybe the HOA. It's making a racket, too.


You know you've got to give an update on this...
2084. JLPR2
The convection of the TW around the CV area is confined to one band on the SE side of the low, meanwhile that TW around -18E is looking good. Really want to see how that one does when it hits water.

2086. Grothar
Quoting 2077. BaltimoreBrian:


Norway became re-independent surprisingly late in 1905.


Yes, I know. And took a Dane as the first King.
what are the winds in MPH on UTOR?
Quoting 2087. SuperStorm093:
what are the winds in MPH on UTOR?

There is this thing called Google where you can search for a tool to convert knots to MPH.
Going off the past JTWC advisory, 100kts = 115mph.
Wettest tropical cyclone
the Philippines
Highest known recorded totals
Precipitation Storm Location
Rank mm in
1 2210.0 87.01 July 1911 cyclone
Baguio City
2090. Grothar
2091. JLPR2
Quoting 2087. SuperStorm093:
what are the winds in MPH on UTOR?


115mph, the equivalent of a cat 3
Quoting 2087. SuperStorm093:
what are the winds in MPH on UTOR?


I think it's at, or will be shortly, 126 mph, w/ gusts to 155.
Quoting 2084. JLPR2:
The convection of the TW around the CV area is confined to one band on the SE side of the low, meanwhile that TW around -18W is looking good. Really want to see how that one does when it hits water.



You mean't 18E right?
Quoting 2077. BaltimoreBrian:


Norway became re-independent surprisingly late in 1905.


And one of the strongest countries in Europe at the mo, and has been really in many ways. I recently told my daughter, between stability, weather, her love of cold and snow and photography opportunity (fjord's, snow, nothern lights)...we probably wouldn't do too bad to learn the language and live there!
2096. JLPR2
According to this the influence of the negative signal of the MJO is gone and is being replaced by upward motion.



Thought it would happen later, also this is dated August 9th, it updates with a delay of one day.
2097. JLPR2
Quoting 2094. Tropicsweatherpr:


You mean't 18E right?


Ah yes! Sorry, got my Es mixed with my Ws.

XD
Quoting 2088. wxchaser97:

There is this thing called Google where you can search for a tool to convert knots to MPH.
Thank you, never new I could do that..........I was just trying to get a quick answer, but I guess you rather be cocky, and ignorant.
Quoting Grothar:


Dun dun dun!
Quoting 2095. mitthbevnuruodo:


And one of the strongest countries in Europe at the mo, and has been really in many ways. I recently told my daughter, between stability, weather, her love of cold and snow and photography opportunity (fjord's, snow, nothern lights)...we probably wouldn't do too bad to learn the language and live there!


I wouldn't mind it either. Norway is an awesome country. No national debt either!
2101. Grothar
Quoting 2098. SuperStorm093:
Thank you, never new I could do that..........I was just trying to get a quick answer, but I guess you rather be cocky, and ignorant.

I edited my comment with the conversion, don't have to call me names.
2103. yoboi
Quoting 2072. Tribucanes:


yoboi, in no way was I speaking down to you, just stating facts of how you've been asking the same questions for over a year and how you've been given detailed answers over and over and yet you come back with the same questions. I was pointing out how you get answers to your questions and then respond with only how you disagree with some cherry picked piece of information you've been given and never wanting to discuss the relevance of what you've been given. If you could explain to me how you haven't been able to connect the dots with all the great information provided to you over the last year to the extent you keep asking the same questions that have been answered time and time again at length, then I might understand your difficulties. I'm no expert, I just love to know the truth, and I arrive at that by detailed research, which is out there for anyone to seek. In fact Dr. Masters draws out a map on this very subject, right here at WU, which is impossible to not follow, unless one is choosing on ideological reasons not too.



I was asking about 2013 ice...the yr is 2013????? why would I ask about 2013 ice in 2012?????? why should I agree with cherry picked information?????? while you were seeking the truth did you somehow discover ALL the science is settled????? If so please guide me to the link that shows ALL science is settled.....you will save me time researching things........
Quoting 2100. BaltimoreBrian:


I wouldn't mind it either. Norway is an awesome country. No national debt either!



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??
Quoting 2081. Grothar:
Utor is one mean looking storm.



Utor Pendragon!
2106. Patrap
Quoting 2104. LAbonbon:



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??


Yup. Their budget surplus this year is 13.1% of GDP. Their total national surplus is $712.1 billion dollars at the latest assessment, or about $140,000 per person.
Quoting 2106. Patrap:
even the ULLs are starting to look good.
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!
2110. Grothar
Quoting 2104. LAbonbon:



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??


One of the highest standards of living in the world. Also, they give away more in humanitarian aid per capita than almost any country in the world.
2111. Patrap
Quoting 2104. LAbonbon:



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??


Not really, we had one in Jan 2001.

The Budget and Deficit
Caribbean SST anomalies are skyrocketing, with the lessening of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

2113. Grothar
Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!


We are happy for you. We hope you get more.
2114. JLPR2
It's interesting to see that once the negative MJO moved out of the Atlantic the E Pacific disturbances started to struggle.

Quoting 1909. Grothar:


I have never mentioned a bust since I have been on this blog.


I love you man! Can I have a man hug? Please?
Quoting 2107. BaltimoreBrian:


Yup. Their budget surplus this year is 13.1% of GDP. Their total national surplus is $712.1 billion dollars at the latest assessment, or about $140,000 per person.


Yowza. Hmmm...me thinks we should be taking some tips from them.

And they're not a member of the EU-I wonder, if this has anything to do with their fiscal common sense.
Quoting 2114. JLPR2:
It's interesting to see that once the negative MJO moved out of the Atlantic the E Pacific disturbances started to struggle.

Once they struggle there its game on in the Atlantic.
Norway does issue bonds so they have an internal debt market. That debt is about 30% of GDP. But they have two national sovereign wealth accounts totaling 140% of GDP so they have a net national surplus of 110% of GDP.
Norway's a big oil exporter LAbonbon. That's how they get their money.
2120. Patrap
Norway makes great marmalade and Beer.

Especially Mack-O, the most northern Brewery in da World.

Laplander's are very cool and excellent traders as well.
2121. JLPR2
The Dry air is getting squished between the large moisture envelope of the new TW in the CV islands vicinity and the ULL around the E Caribbean.



As it continues to get pushed to the west the ULL should generate enough moisture to continue eating it.
Quoting 2119. BaltimoreBrian:
Norway's a big oil exporter LAbonbon. That's how they get their money.


Thank for that. You just saved me some time on Google and Wiki :)
Quoting 2079. Grothar:


My cell phone and cable are on a daily plan.
I don't buy green bananas.
Quoting 2103. yoboi:



I was asking about 2013 ice...the yr is 2013????? why would I ask about 2013 ice in 2012?????? why should I agree with cherry picked information?????? while you were seeking the truth did you somehow discover ALL the science is settled????? If so please guide me to the link that shows ALL science is settled.....you will save me time researching things........


You cherry pick information out of what is given you to disagree with and ignore the rest, your not given cherry picked information. You've been given, time and time again detailed, peer reviewed information that is agreed on by 97% of climate scientists. The science that man driven GW/climate change is happening is a settled subject in the scientific community. What isn't settled are the unknowns of just how bad it's going to get. The cumulative effect is the unknown. And your overall demeanor in your response really makes my point better than I ever could.
Quoting 2107. BaltimoreBrian:


Yup. Their budget surplus this year is 13.1% of GDP. Their total national surplus is $712.1 billion dollars at the latest assessment, or about $140,000 per person.


Them dang socialist countrys.......lol. Here in California we RAISE taxes and CUT the budget to balance the budget. We better talk to the Norwegians about how they handle their retirement plan for state workers....thats gonna be a toughie for California.....a big cloud hanging over a lot of states.

U see Typhoon Utor looking quite impressive and the Atlantic pretty quiet.
2126. 2ifbyC
Quoting 2102. wxchaser97:

I edited my comment with the conversion, don't have to call me names.


He didn't call you names. He just used a couple of totally appropriate adjectives!
Quoting 2116. LAbonbon:


Yowza. Hmmm...me thinks we should be taking some tips from them.

And they're not a member of the EU-I wonder, if this has anything to do with their fiscal common sense.


It has much to do with North Sea oil! LOL BUT, and a big but for many Americans, they are quite socialist, mixed with a dash of capitolism. They seem to have the right mix. But North Sea oil is a BIG help. But the wealth seems to be spread round more than just a handful at the top. For the benefit of the country, more than the benefit of the few. I can't read Norweigian, so I may be off-base with hear-say though since can't read their own news
Models still saying possible something in NW Caribbean in a week or so?
Quoting 2119. BaltimoreBrian:
Norway's a big oil exporter LAbonbon. That's how they get their money.


and what?
Quoting 2127. mitthbevnuruodo:


It has much to do with North Sea oil! LOL BUT, and a big but for many Americans, they are quite socialist, mixed with a dash of capitolism. They seem to have the right mix. But North Sea oil is a BIG help. But the wealth seems to be spread round more than just a handful at the top. For the benefit of the country, more than the benefit of the few. I can't read Norweigian, so I may be off-base with hear-say though since can't read their own news


Quit with factual information.......some folks get upset with factual information. :)
2131. JLPR2
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.
Quoting 2111. Patrap:


Not really, we had one in Jan 2001.

The Budget and Deficit


I was actually being a little (okay, a lot) sarcastic. I know it's possible to not have national debt, but w/ the way things are here, it's highly improbable...

But, when was the last time we did not have national debt? (Debt, not annual deficit/surplus). I think it was the 1800s...it doesn't seem to be in our genetic makeup to be fiscally responsible as a country. So kudos to Norway.

(And you linked to one of my favorite sites, BTW)
Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.
I see a nice spin to that tropical wave
Quoting 2128. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Models still saying possible something in NW Caribbean in a week or so?

Yeah, models are still showing some sort of development in the GOM in 5-7 days. There should be a favorable environment with shear being light and SST's being very warm. It just depends on where the energy goes. If it interacts with land more it won't become much, and if it goes farther north it would have more time over water. I'd say there's a pretty decent chance of this developing.
Norway makes great marmalade and Beer.

Especially Mack-O, the most northern Brewery in da World.

Laplander's are very cool and excellent traders as well.

Don't forget the Lutkefische.. whatever that is. In Texas, it seems to be a small jar of fish pieces floating like a lab specimen in some sort of brine, and is highly prized, though very expensive, so there must be some Swedes or Norwegians lurking in our supermarkets.

I don't know if they put it on their bagels, or mix it in their taters, or feed it to the cats, I just dunno.
Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.


Looking like a good start
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 151.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
2138. JLPR2
Quoting 2133. hurricanes2018:
I see a nice spin to that tropical wave


Yes, it emerged with it, here is an older pass:



I wonder why the surface map doesn't have a low even though it is clear we do have one...
As My 7 year old daughter and I were walking in to a store today we watched in amazement as a vortex of dried leaves of various sizes spun up to about 10-12 feet high off the ground and almost as wide. It lifted off and held itself in place for at least 5 seconds almost as if in slow motion. I thought it was cool but boy was she excited.... she couldn't get information fast enough from me, asking question after question for the next 5 minutes. We talked about tornadoes, hurricanes, waterspouts etc.
It hit me then....Future weather nut!!! LOL

Don't worry I'll wait at least 2 more years before we get her a screen name.
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COLLAPSED DURING THE DAY...AND
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK...SATELLITE SIGNATURES SHOW OVERALL WEAKENING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR HENRIETTE HAS BEEN DROPPED TO 35 KT...WHICH
IS AN AVERAGE OF THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR HENRIETTE REMAINS AT 265/18...FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ALONG RECENT FORECAST TRACKS. HENRIETTE IS BEING DRIVEN
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
KEEPING HENRIETTE ON A SIMILAR BEARING. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE LAST FEW PACKAGES.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT ITS
CORE CAN BE DISRUPTED BY RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES IN THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. HENRIETTE WILL PASS OVER WATERS WITH SST
OF ABOUT 27 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH INCREASING SST AND
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FARTHER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME...IT
WILL PROBABLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF HENRIETTE. THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN ACCELERATED WITH
THIS PACKAGE...DROPPING HENRIETTE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT
AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS AND
ICVN GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.8N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.5N 154.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 13.0N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 12.8N 162.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 12.7N 165.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
Quoting 2134. wxchaser97:

Yeah, models are still showing some sort of development in the GOM in 5-7 days. There should be a favorable environment with shear being light and SST's being very warm. It just depends on where the energy goes. If it interacts with land more it won't become much, and if it goes farther north it would have more time over water. I'd say there's a pretty decent chance of this developing.


Thank you sir! Still want that man hug Gro
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST August 11 2013
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.0N 114.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
2143. yoboi
Quoting 2124. Tribucanes:


You cherry pick information out of what is given you to disagree with and ignore the rest, your not given cherry picked information. You've been given, time and time again detailed, peer reviewed information that is agreed on by 97% of climate scientists. The science that man driven GW/climate change is happening is a settled subject in the scientific community. What isn't settled is the unknowns of just how bad it's going to get. The cumulative effect is the unknown. And your overall demeanor in your response really makes my point better than I ever could.



My overall demeanor was just great until you started talking down to me and bashing me for no reason......for the past few weeks I have been researching things with an open mind......give yourself a pat on the back for making me now having a closed mind about the subject......
2144. JLPR2
Would hate to be on the Philippines right now, the amount of -80c cloud tops is frightening, that's going to flood everything on its path.

Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.


Not bad looking.
From the Phillipines #3 Typhoon Warnings, They have 1-4 depending on strength of storm.


Public Warning Signals - 3
Meteorological Conditions
- A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
- Winds greater than 100 kph up to 185 kph may be expected in at least
18 hours.

Impact of the Winds
- Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.
- Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be
uprooted.
- Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
- Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there
may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.
- There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication
services (including the Internet).
- In general, moderate to heavy damage may be expected, practically in the
agricultural and industrial sectors.

Precautionary Measures
- The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened / affected.
- The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
- Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
- People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas
and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
- Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden
occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong
winds coming generally from the north.
- When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community, do not venture away from the
safe shelter because after one(1) to two(2) hours - the worst weather will resume
with the very strong winds coming from the south.
- Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety
of strong buildings and evacuation centers.
- Disaster preparedness and response agencies / organizations are in action with
appropriate response to actual emergency.
Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...
And #4 Most severe

===

Public Warning Signals - 4
Meteorological Condition
- A very intense typhoon will affect the locality.
- Very strong winds of more than 185 kph may be expected in at least 12 hours.

Impact of the Winds
- Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
- Many large trees may be uprooted.
- Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
- Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be
severely damaged.
- Electrical power distribution and communication services (including Internet)
may be severely disrupted.
- In the overall, damage to affected communities can be very heavy.

Precautionary Measures
- The situation is potentially very destructive to the community.
- All travels and outdoor activities should be canceled.
- Evacuation to much safer shelters should have been completed since it may
be too late under this situation.
- With PSWS No. 4, the locality is very likely to be hit directly by the "eye" of
the typhoon. As the "eye" of the typhoon approaches, the weather will
continuously worsen with the winds increasing to its strongest coming generally
from the north. Then a sudden improvement of the weather with light winds
(a lull) will be experienced. This means that the "eye" of the typhoon is over the
locality. This improved weather may last for one(1) to two(2) hours - depending
on the diameter of the "eye" and the speed of movement. As the "eye" moves
out of the locality, the worst weather experienced before the lull will suddenly
commence. This time the very strong winds will come generally from the south.
- The Disaster Coordinating Councils concerned and other disaster response
organizations are now fully responding to emergencies and in full readiness
to immediately response to possible calamity
Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.
Quoting 2138. JLPR2:


Yes, it emerged with it, here is an older pass:



I wonder why the surface map doesn't have a low even though it is clear we do have one...

Should be on there soon and maybe NHC may put it up on the TWO and maybe tagged new Invest
Quoting 2147. LAbonbon:


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...


its call sign is Lightning ..
Quoting 2150. wunderkidcayman:

Should be on there soon and maybe NHC may put it up on the TWO and maybe tagged new Invest


The dry air is going to wipe it out and may have started already.
Hmmmmmm.

Quoting 2151. whitewabit:


its call sign is Lightning ..

F-35 Lightning II
Quoting 2143. yoboi:



My overall demeanor was just great until you started talking down to me and bashing me for no reason......for the past few weeks I have been researching things with an open mind......give yourself a pat on the back for making me now having a closed mind about the subject......


LOL, I've watched you have a closed mind on this for over a year. I've seen you repeat the same questions and give the same pat denials to the responses dozens of times. You come here to spat off sarcastic responses to the truth your given. I've been silent on this constant repeat pattern of yours for a very long time. Just like this back and forth between us is getting old for everyone else here, your never coming to a conclusion based on research and facts is old and worn out. You won't seek, you refuse to believe based on conclusive science, and I don't believe you've ever given the hard science a real study. You have an agenda, you don't need us to find the facts, they're everywhere. As I can imagine the blog's seen enough of this back and forth, I won't comment on this again. Just after a year of this from you, I felt it needed to be said.
Quoting 2151. whitewabit:


its call sign is Lightning ..


Aw, come on, where's the fun in that? He's asking for help from fellow Texans. Has it really been that long since he's encountered thunder & lightning :P
Quoting 2152. seer2012:


The dry air is going to wipe it out and may have started already.

I don't think so
Oh drones, we have them coming out of our ears. They deliver the mail around here.

Somebody WUmailed me it might be lightning and thunder, but skeptic that I am, I'll just attribute it to some nighttime weird arcing sunspots.

It's raining..in Austin... or maybe about to.
2159. flsky
Quoting 2139. Abacosurf:
As My 7 year old daughter and I were walking in to a store today we watched in amazement as a vortex of dried leaves of various sizes spun up to about 10-12 feet high off the ground and almost as wide. It lifted off and held itself in place for at least 5 seconds almost as if in slow motion. I thought it was cool but boy was she excited.... she couldn't get information fast enough from me, asking question after question for the next 5 minutes. We talked about tornadoes, hurricanes, waterspouts etc.
It hit me then....Future weather nut!!! LOL

Don't worry I'll wait at least 2 more years before we get her a screen name.


Yay! That's what we do need in this field -- more female meteorologists! Hope she keeps interested in a fascinating area of study!
2160. JLPR2
Quoting 2150. wunderkidcayman:

Should be on there soon and maybe NHC may put it up on the TWO and maybe tagged new Invest


I do expect it at 06z, but I doubt we get an invest, the wave does have a great moisture field and spin but the circulation is in fact so strong that it is pulling dry air into it. Considering the amount of moisture to the East and South I don't expect it to be choked by the dry air but it should keep it in check.



**Also: The fact that it is moving WSW helps.

Quoting 2147. LAbonbon:


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...

Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!
That was more than likely a small meteor. But we shall see. One flew over Russia earlier this year. It created a very bright light and a huge sonic boom as it went sub-sonic. The boom so loud that it broke several windows causing a lot of injuries due to the flying glass.........But we shall see. Very glad that you are okay. 
2162. flsky
No interesting weather at all here in ECFL today. Blue skies, hot(!), but with a bit of a breeze. Not supposed to have any rain for the next week, at least. It's much more bearable here in August when there's a cooling afternoon shower.
2163. Gearsts
2164. yoboi
Quoting 2155. Tribucanes:


LOL, I've watched you have a closed mind on this for over a year. I've seen you repeat the same questions and give the same pat denials to the responses dozens of times. You come here to spat off sarcastic responses to the truth your given. I've been silent on this constant repeat pattern of yours for a very long time. Just like this back and forth between us is getting old for everyone else here, your never coming to a conclusion based on research and facts is old and worn out. You won't seek, you refuse to believe based on conclusive science, and I don't believe you've ever given the hard science a real study. You have an agenda, you don't need us to find the facts, they're everywhere. As I can imagine the blog's seen enough of this back and forth, I won't comment on this again. Just after a year of this from you, I felt it needed to be said.



Glad you got your daily attack in.....enough of the drama.... please go troll someone else......not really in the mood for your tantrums tonight......
Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!

Radioactive light from one of the satellites out in space being taken over by aliens. Don't get close.
Quoting 2147. LAbonbon:


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...
Quoting 2106. Patrap:

If only it would go north
2168. wetrain
Nevada here from Hanover. We had lots of rain and thunderstorms today in Hanover and Jamaica by extension. It seems as if we could have an increase in rainfall For Jamaica starting late Monday going into Wednesday as a trough of low pressure could affect us.
Quoting 2164. yoboi:



Glad you got your daily attack in.....enough of the drama.... please go troll someone else......not really in the mood for your tantrums tonight......


take this conversation to your own blogs !
Quoting 2155. Tribucanes:


LOL, I've watched you have a closed mind on this for over a year. I've seen you repeat the same questions and give the same pat denials to the responses dozens of times. You come here to spat off sarcastic responses to the truth your given. I've been silent on this constant repeat pattern of yours for a very long time. Just like this back and forth between us is getting old for everyone else here, your never coming to a conclusion based on research and facts is old and worn out. You won't seek, you refuse to believe based on conclusive science, and I don't believe you've ever given the hard science a real study. You have an agenda, you don't need us to find the facts, they're everywhere. As I can imagine the blog's seen enough of this back and forth, I won't comment on this again. Just after a year of this from you, I felt it needed to be said.


Take this conversation to your own blog !
Quoting 2160. JLPR2:


I do expect it at 06z, but I doubt we get an invest, the wave does have a great moisture field and spin but the circulation is in fact so strong that it is pulling dry air into it. Considering the amount of moisture to the East and South I don't expect it to be choked by the dry air but it should keep it in check.



**Also: The fact that it is moving WSW helps.

true the new surface map does show almost a closed Isobar maybe we may find it closed with a Low by 06Z
2173. Grothar
Quoting 2135. redwagon:
Norway makes great marmalade and Beer.

Especially Mack-O, the most northern Brewery in da World.

Laplander's are very cool and excellent traders as well.

Don't forget the Lutkefische.. whatever that is. In Texas, it seems to be a small jar of fish pieces floating like a lab specimen in some sort of brine, and is highly prized, though very expensive, so there must be some Swedes or Norwegians lurking in our supermarkets.

I don't know if they put it on their bagels, or mix it in their taters, or feed it to the cats, I just dunno.


I have over 500 recipes for herring. And it is lutefisk.
2174. Grothar
Quoting 2141. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thank you sir! Still want that man hug Gro


How about we just bump shoulders and nod at each other.
Quoting 2173. Grothar:


I have over 500 recipes for herring. And it is lutefisk.

Where do you think the NW Carib storm would go? The models have it into MX and TX and FL...
Quoting 2132. LAbonbon:


...when was the last time we did not have national debt? (Debt, not annual deficit/surplus).



I have vowed to stay away from any AGW and political discussions, and to stay tightly focused on tropical weather. However, I am going to make this one exception as it has little to do with partisanship, and because I happen to have considerable knowledge on the subject.

The only time, the single time, the US has never had any public debt (almost zero but not quite) was during Andrew Jackson's administration who was an opponent of a national central bank. Since that time, every single administration of any party has only added to the national debt.

The Clinton Surplus is a myth, never happened, and here's why: Social Security revenues were much higher as a result of the dotcom bubble. Social Security surpluses are required by law to be converted into US Governmental Securities which are sold and immediately become intergovernmental holdings. The truth is, the Clinton tenure like every other president, increased the national debt. The government just covered its deficits by borrowing money from Social Security rather than the public.


The Clinton Surplus Myth


Anyone that ever thinks government, any administration, spends less is a fool, as we've witnessed exponential spending increases in each subsequent administration no matter which party is in power. The Obama tenure of spending has far exceeded that of his predecessor Bush, and no doubt, even if the next POTUS is a Republican, that administration's spending will likely dwarf that of Obama.

We have an animal that tirelessly demands to be fed more and more and more and more. And, it makes little difference which party is in power and who is in charge at the White House. We've been headed into the abyss for a very long time, except now we're moving there exponentially quicker. In 2011 the CBO and WHBM forecast the national debt to be a bit more than $20T ten years forward. Both will miss that target, because that figure will come much more quickly as we're already approaching $17T now, and it's only 2013. Lately, annual deficit spending has been at least $1T, meaning we're likely to pass the $20T threshold in 2016.

We live in scary times, but very sadly it's our children and on who will be the ones that ultimately have to shoulder the burden and pending collapse.
Radioactive light from one of the satellites out in space being taken over by aliens. Don't get close.

--------------

Sound advice, and I'm takin' it.
Quoting 2176. moonlightcowboy:


...We live in scary times, but very sadly it's our children and on will be the ones that ultimately have to shoulder the burden and pending collapse.


I thought you were going to stay away from talk about climate change? At least you now seem to realize that the consequences of our unbridled use of fossil fuels are going to be born by the generations that follow.

Kudos to you.

2179. Grothar
Quoting 2125. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Them dang socialist countrys.......lol. Here in California we RAISE taxes and CUT the budget to balance the budget. We better talk to the Norwegians about how they handle their retirement plan for state workers....thats gonna be a toughie for California.....a big cloud hanging over a lot of states.

U see Typhoon Utor looking quite impressive and the Atlantic pretty quiet.


None of the Scandinavian countries are Socialist. The systems in all the countries including Finland are often referred to as the Nordic model.

>shoulder nudge<
notting!
Re: redwagon's unusual experience

So far...

lightning (Grothar)
F-34 Lightning II (wunderkidcayman)
meteor (Tornado6042008X)
supersonic drone (LAbonbon)
radioactive light/alien takeover of satellites (TropicalAnalystwx13)
dirigible (BaltimoreBrian)

Hmmm...I think Tornado may be onto something..(Sorry, Gro, I've got to believe he'd be able to tell)

And Tropical - you win for best imagination

In any case, I'm rather intrigued by this. I'll be checking the news tomorrow to see if something shows up for the Austin area. (But in all likelihood Brian will beat me to it.)
Quoting 2178. TheDevilsAdvocate:


I thought you were going to stay away from talk about climate change? At least you now seem to realize that the consequences of our unbridled use of fossil fuels are going to be born by the generations that follow.

Kudos to you.



Devil, I made no such remark. I will not be baited and I will not comment on AGW nor partisan politics. Both parties, many entities, many people including us are to blame for the desperate financial situation this country faces, and it has to do with many, many things of which dependency on foreign oil is but one small piece of the pie.

Now, that's it, all I'm going to say on the subject. Back to the tropics! :)
2183. Grothar
Quoting 2175. Stormchaser121:

Where do you think the NW Carib storm would go? The models have it into MX and TX and FL...


At this time mostly north if it passes the Yucatan.
Quoting 2174. Grothar:


How about we just bump shoulders and nod at each other.


:)
Im sensing some tensions on the blog tonight?
Quoting 2181. LAbonbon:
Re: redwagon's unusual experience

So far...

lightning (Grothar)
F-34 Lightning II (wunderkidcayman)
meteor (Tornado6042008X)
supersonic drone (LAbonbon)
radioactive light/alien takeover of satellites (TropicalAnalystwx13)
dirigible (BaltimoreBrian)

Hmmm...I think Tornado may be onto something..(Sorry, Gro, I've got to believe he'd be able to tell)

And Tropical - you win for best imagination

In any case, I'm rather intrigued by this. I'll be checking the news tomorrow to see if something shows up for the Austin area. (But in all likelihood Brian will beat me to it.)

They're all wrong. It is a streetlight.
Quoting 2179. Grothar:


None of the Scandinavian countries are Socialist. The systems in all the countries including Finland are often referred to as the Nordic model.

>shoulder nudge<


My apologies sir....I stand corrected :)
[Gro] I have over 500 recipes for herring. And it is lutefisk.

What I would like explained is 'salt cod'. Apparently our Seattle, Minnesota, Michigan brothers and sisters come across a Cod, on a hook or scanned at the self-checkout, take it home, inundate it with rock salt, put it in a jar, dry it for a few years.... and then what?
Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.
Eye feature slowly becoming more pronounced. Utor continues to strengthen.

Quoting 2179. Grothar:


None of the Scandinavian countries are Socialist. The systems in all the countries including Finland are often referred to as the Nordic model.

>shoulder nudge<

And a darn good model it is, too.
2193. Grothar
Getting mean. (The storm I mean)



Definitely an eye.

Quoting 2182. moonlightcowboy:


Devil, I made no such remark, and I will not comment on AGW nor partisan politics. Both parties, many entities, many people including us are to blame for the desperate financial situation this country faces, and it has to do with many, many things, of which dependency on foreign oil has been one small piece of the pie.

Now, that's it, all I'm going to say on the subject. Back to the tropics! :)

But you just commented on partisan politics in #2176 & 2182. Which cowboy am I to believe?

Anyone else think Tater Tots are pretty dang good? A little levity to break the tension...lol
2196. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Radioactive light from one of the satellites out in space being taken over by aliens. Don't get close.

We are nearing the peak of the Persieds meteor shower, and there have been reports of some pretty spectacular falls, although I haven't seen one yet. The peak is the 13th, and we should be near 100 per hour with a dark sky. Should be a good show for everyone lucky enough to have no city lights and a clear sky.
SAB at T5.5/102kts as of 0232UTC.

11/0232 UTC 14.8N 125.4E T5.5/5.5 UTOR -- West Pacific
Quoting 2193. Grothar:
Getting mean. (The storm I mean)



Definitely an eye.



The warm machine springs to life
opens up one eager eye (based on Nena 99 Luftballons)
Quoting 2190. CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.


From the ULL?
2200. Grothar
Quoting 2196. sar2401:

We are nearing the peak of the Persieds meteor shower, and there have been reports of some pretty spectacular falls, although I haven't seen one yet. The peak is the 13th, and we should be near 100 per hour with a dark sky. Should be a good show for everyone lucky enough to have no city lights and a clear sky.


The biggest meteor shower I ever saw was in November 1966. There were thousands per hour. I was stationed in Fort Riley, KS at the time. They actually woke us up about 2 AM to watch it and let us sleep in late.
2202. Grothar
Quoting 2192. Birthmark:

And a darn good model it is, too.


Why thank you. It took awhile, but it worked out well. The only problem we have between our countries is that the Norwegians fly over in their helicopters to Sweden and steal their lingonberries. (It really is a big problem)
We'll see if Utor can surpass Soulik as the strongest system in the northern hemisphere thus far. Soulik originated, interestingly, from an upper-level low that gained tropical characteristics over very warm sea surface temperatures over a span of several days. It reached a peak of 125 kt (145 mph).

Quoting 2199. HurricaneHunterJoe:


From the ULL?


It's moving fast, and due to it's proximity to Mexico, no way it could intensify into a Tropical Storm, let alone a Depression
Quoting 2199. HurricaneHunterJoe:


From the ULL?
Surface low south of the ULL.
2206. Grothar
Quoting 2190. CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.


Yes.


Quoting 2202. Grothar:


Why thank you. It took awhile, but it worked out well. The only problem we have between our countries is that the Norwegians fly over in their helicopters to Sweden and steal their lingonberries. (It really is a big problem)
What's a lingonberry?
2208. sar2401
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.

Pretty much. :-) I assume you mean the convective mass that headed north from the Yucatan right now. If so, that's just normal blow-off that occurs almost every day and dies off by sunrise. I don't see any kind of focusing mechanism that's going to make that unofficial blob any different that the others we've been seeing. The Western Gulf is starting to show some decent convection for the first time in a month, and I do expect our first hurricane to come from that general area. It just won't be this particular blobette.
Quoting 2207. unknowncomic:
What's a lingonberry?

A berry that Norwegians steal from Sweden. Weren't you paying attention? :)
Latest NAM in 84HRS showing convection in SW Carib.
Anyone hear about the floods in Tennessee this past Thursday? A Church of Christ down the street from my church received 5 FEET of water within their building. My church sits on a hill, yet the water seeped through the walls in the basement and delivered 6 inches of water. My church has flood insurance, but apparently, this did not qualify as a flood. Anyways, here's the story with a few fixes on my part from what I heard from my pastor who visited the Church of Christ to check on them:


Heavy rain causes flash flooding across middle Tennessee Thursday morning. Most of the water has now receded, but the cleanup is just getting started.

Madison, Tennessee got an early wake up call Thursday morning. Around 5:30 a.m. the rain came fast. Officials say many roads were impassable and dozens of people, including a 5-week-old baby, had to be rescued from high waters.

A small strip mall was knocked off its foundation. Over at Madison Church of Christ, the Sonrise room is covered in water and sewage. Church officials say the water was so strong, it pushed out several windows and a door.

"It was torrential," said Madison Church of Christ Elder Jim Gotto. "I mean just coming of course, it wasn't coming from out. It appeared to be coming from inside the building and flowing out, which would indicate a storm sewer was backing up."

Gotto tells us the flooding damaged children's classrooms, two fellowship rooms, a kitchen, and offices on the first floor. He says some areas had five feet of water. They lost furniture, wedding supplies, classroom materials, books, and computers. Crews spent the day pumping out the water and starting the cleanup process.

"Having lived through the 2010 flood," said Gotto, "and I went down about six months after Katrina, it wasn't the ahh where somebody that's never seen something like this happen, but just a little bit of discouragement knowing we're going to have a big bill."

Gotto says it's a sickening feeling because the church does not have flood insurance. Madison Church of Christ says it suffered $1,000,000 in damage.

The church says it plans to hold Sunday services at another campus in Hendersonville, Tennessee, and they hope to be back at Madison Church of Christ the following weekend.

Typhoon "LABUYO" continues to pose a threat over Eastern Luzon as it moves closer to the Aurora Province

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Labuyo [UTOR] (963 hPa) located at 14.7N 125.6E or 160 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots gusting up to 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warnings #3

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Provinces
3. Northern Quezon
4. Province including
5. Polilio Island
6. Aurora
7. Isabela

Signal Warnings #2

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Albay
2. Sorsogon
3. Rizal
4. Rest of Quezon
5. Laguna
6. Bulacan
7. Nueva Ecija
8. Quirino
9. Nueva Viscaya
10. Benguet
11. Ifugao
12. Mountain Province
13. Kalinga
14. Cagayan

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Calayan Group of Islands
2. Babuyan Group of Islands
3. Ilocos Norte
4. Ilocos Sur
5. Apayao
6. Abra
7. La Union
8. Pangasinan
9. Tarlac
10. Zambales
11. Pampanga
12. Bataan
13. Cavite
14. Batangas
15. Marinduque
16. Burias
17. Ticao Islands
18. Metro Manila

Visayas Region
-----------------
1. northern Samar

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5 -25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3,#2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Typhoon "Labuyo" will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over the rest of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
The real story about temperatures - you won't hear about on TWC

Joe D'Aleo
Weatherbell



August 10 08:45 AM

A recent story that made the headlines and appeared as hard news on the NBC Universal comedy channel called The Weather Channel said the warming is ten times faster than any time in history and we are now warmer than since the dinosaurs roamed the planet. Lets take a look at the data and we'll see the apparent warming may be man made but the men are in the NOAA climate data center. A little more than a decade ago I was championing NOAA NCDC for their efforts to assemble an accurate data set for the CONUS. We knew at the time it had flaws, but it was widely recognized as the best in the world.

NOAA NCDC USHCN

When first implemented in 1990 as USHCN version1, it employed 1221 stations across the United States. In 1999, NASA%u2019s James Hansen published this graph of USHCN version 1 annual mean temperatures:



About which Hansen correctly noted: "The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934."

USHCN was generally accepted as the world's best data base of temperatures with the stations most continuous and stable, and adjustments made for time of observation, urbanization, known land use changes around sites each of which can produce major contamination issues for temperature data.

URBAN HEAT ISLAND

There is no real dispute that weather data from cities, as collected by meteorological stations, is contaminated by urban heat island (UHI) bias, and that this has to be removed to identify climatic changes or trends. In cities, vertical walls, steel and concrete absorb the sun%u2019s heat and are slow to cool at night. More and more of the world is urbanized (population increased from 1.5 B to near 7 B today).

The UHI effect occurs not only for big cities but also for towns. Oke (who won the 2008 American Meteorological Society%u2019s Helmut Landsberg award for his pioneer work on urbanization) had a formula for the warming that is tied to population. Oke (1973) found that the UHI (in %uFFFFC) increases according to the formula

UHI= 0.73 log10 POP

where pop denotes population. This means that a village with a population of 10 has a warm bias of 0.73%uFFFFC, a village with 100 has a warm bias of 1.46%uFFFFC, a town with a population of 1000 people has a warm bias of 2.2C%uFFFF, and a large city with a million people has a warm bias of 4.4%uFFFFC.



Urban heat islands as seen from infrared sensors onboard satellites.

Goodrich (1996) showed the importance of urbanization to temperatures in his study of California counties in 1996. He found for counties with a million or more population the warming from 1910 to 1995 was 4F, for counties with 100,000 to 1 million, 1F and for counties with less than 100,000, no change (0.1F).




NCDC%u2019s Tom Karl(1988) employed a similar scheme for the first USHCN data base (released in 1990) that was the best data set available at that time. He noted that the national climate network formerly consisted of predominantly rural or small towns with populations below 25,000 (as of 1980 census) and yet that a UHI effect was clearly evident.

Tom Karl's adjustments were smaller than Oke had found (0.22%uFFFFC annually on a town of 10,000 and 1.81%uFFFFC on a city of 1 million and 3.73%uFFFFC for a city of 5 million).

Karl observed that in smaller towns and rural areas the net UHI contamination was relatively small but that significant anomalies showed up in rapidly growing population centers.

USHCN also maintained a METADATA base (later shown by Anthony Watts in surfacestations.org project to be not by any means perfect) that identified changes in observing site locations and instrumentation and supposedly made adjustments accordingly, along with adjustment for change in the time of observation over the years.

Note in the graph above 1934 at that time had an anomaly of close to 1.5C (2.7F) and 1998, the super El Nino (about 0.95C (roughly 1.8F). In the early 2000s, some state climatologists began to notice a gradual change in the historical data, with the past beginning to cool.

The was a dilemma that was causing angst among the UN, US and global scientist in trying to explain why the US was out of sync with the global assessment which minimized the cyclical nature and amplified the apparent warming. This was largely because the global contained no adjustment for urbanization and was biased toward urban areas, especially after the big drop off of stations used starting in the late 1980s.

There was a disclaimer on the NASA site that showed global and US, under the US that the US only represented only 1.6% of the world and thus was not representtive of the real alarming story.

In 2007, NCDC announced version 2 of the USHCN was to be released. It removed the UHI adjustment and replaced it withan adjustment that was designed to catch previously undocumented inhomogeneities (station location changes). It added additional coop station and a process called homogenization or blending of stations. Though Tom Karl assured me his staff told him it would catch UHI changes, in reality those changes are gradual not discontinuous. Take for example Sacramento, California.



It would or at last should spot the sudden change as occurred at Tahoe City, CA when a tennis court and trash burn barrel were placed around the shelter in 1980. The clay or paved court was a heat source. Specifications for instruments are that they are to be located 100 feet from any such heat source.

Well the new version brought big changes. Instead of 1934 being 0.9F warmer than 1998, 1998 actually became warmer than 1934. were virtually the same and an upward trend in the overall temperatures were visible that was not there in the 1999 plot. Here is that new version with data brought up to 2012.

In this NASA version of the USHCN data, the base period of 1951-1980 was used.
The NCDC version of temperatures not anomalies in degrees F and C is plotted below. It has a base period of 1901 to 2000. Notice again than 1998 i warmer than 1934 by 0.2F. That is a flip of 1.1F since USHCN.I calculated anomalies and did a difference of the two versions. The 'dust bowl deniers' have pretty much ensured that every month, season, year and decade will rank now among the warmest ever and TWC can make the ridiculous claim that were are now warmer than anytime since dinosaurs walked the earth.The only data set not messed with their new adjustments is the record highs and lows. Although some at NCAR have suggested that too needs to be adjusted, it is in too many places - in every TV station and local office and would be much more noticeable than adjusting the annual means in the way they did.

Here are the plots of record highs - all time state and monthly all time state and daily cities with long histories. they are all much more in sync with the USHCN version 1 and likely the real story. Notice the dominance of the 1930s.
Finally how good are these homogenization adjustments that are said to be the replacement for UHI?

Dr Edward Long, formerly with NASA did a study for the lower 48 states using representative urban and rural locations. In the raw data, Dr. Long found the rural warmed at 0.13C/century (0.23F) and the urban 0.79C/century (1.42F).
One would expect the rural to be the better uncontaminated data set and any blending should bias the urban heat towards the rural cooler set, but that is not what happens. the rural trends leaps to 0.64C (1.15F)/century and the urban stays high at 0.77C (1.39F/century).A team of scientists looked at the issue urban and siting contamination in a paper that will soon be published. They found that siting/urban contamination matters and that NOAA adjustments clearly make the final results worse not better.

This study was only for the period 1979 to 2008, covering the warm PDO and grand solar maximum which produced the two decade warming, not the entire century..
In fact if they did not migrate away from USHCN v1 and maintained the UHI, the 2000s would be the second warmest decade behind the 1930s in line withe the record highs.Is the global any better?

As if it wasn't bad enough before, the recent changes have amplified it too, in the same way of cooling the past and warming recent years. Some of this is the bleed through of the US adjustments.
Even with all this data manipulation, the trend is down as shown by this Hadley global plot. Last year was the 8th warmest but 7th coldest since 1998. They explain it away with the predominance of La Ninas or a solar blip but say it was the warmest decade ever nonetheless so stop questioning us.So next time you read that July or that 2013 ranked in the top ten warmest ever, and the last decade was the warmest since the dinosaurs roamed the planet keep these facts in mind.The temperature data's only relationship to the dinosaurs was shown in the movie Jurassic Park.By the way, CO2 in prior epochs was much higher than today. We are in the low end of the range that plants thrive.
Quoting 2209. Birthmark:

A berry that Norwegians steal from Sweden. Weren't you paying attention? :)
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW
TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE...FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N92W. THIS IS THE MAJOR WEATHER
PRODUCER IN THE GULF. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 88W-93W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM INLAND OF THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

Not too much weather with these features , passing showers and 15-20 kt E. Winds at my location in the Gulf...Surprised me when I saw the yellow crayon even
if it was a 0%...
2216. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Why thank you. It took awhile, but it worked out well. The only problem we have between our countries is that the Norwegians fly over in their helicopters to Sweden and steal their lingonberries. (It really is a big problem)

Gro, the Swedes have one of the best air defense systems in Europe, and it has quite a sizable air force. The Norwegians barely have enough helicopters to fly the Crown Prince around. I imagine the Swedes could protect their ligonberries if push came to shove. :-)
2218. JLPR2
Now the vorticity of the TW is looking interesting.

The 850mb vort (closest to the surface that CIMMS has) has a strange horseshoe shape with one of the legs aligned with the mid level vort (700mb and 500mb).

850mb:


700mb:


500mb:


Still not very impressive convection-wise.
Quoting 2213. PensacolaDoug:
The real story about temperatures - you won't hear about on TWC

The real story in your post is that the "G" in "AGW" stands for "Global." Showing US temperature data to refute global warming is a bit like showing a state with a budget surplus and then claiming that that refutes the US deficit.
2220. flsky
A friend is driving to ECFL from northern Indiana on Monday. How do conditions look for his drive.

Quoting 2211. Astrometeor:
Anyone hear about the floods in Tennessee this past Thursday? A Church of Christ down the street from my church received 5 FEET of water within their building. My church sits on a hill, yet the water seeped through the walls in the basement and delivered 6 inches of water. My church has flood insurance, but apparently, this did not qualify as a flood. Anyways, here's the story with a few fixes on my part from what I heard from my pastor who visited the Church of Christ to check on them:


Heavy rain causes flash flooding across middle Tennessee Thursday morning. Most of the water has now receded, but the cleanup is just getting started.

Madison, Tennessee got an early wake up call Thursday morning. Around 5:30 a.m. the rain came fast. Officials say many roads were impassable and dozens of people, including a 5-week-old baby, had to be rescued from high waters.

A small strip mall was knocked off its foundation. Over at Madison Church of Christ, the Sonrise room is covered in water and sewage. Church officials say the water was so strong, it pushed out several windows and a door.

"It was torrential," said Madison Church of Christ Elder Jim Gotto. "I mean just coming of course, it wasn't coming from out. It appeared to be coming from inside the building and flowing out, which would indicate a storm sewer was backing up."

Gotto tells us the flooding damaged children's classrooms, two fellowship rooms, a kitchen, and offices on the first floor. He says some areas had five feet of water. They lost furniture, wedding supplies, classroom materials, books, and computers. Crews spent the day pumping out the water and starting the cleanup process.

"Having lived through the 2010 flood," said Gotto, "and I went down about six months after Katrina, it wasn't the ahh where somebody that's never seen something like this happen, but just a little bit of discouragement knowing we're going to have a big bill."

Gotto says it's a sickening feeling because the church does not have flood insurance. Madison Church of Christ says it suffered $1,000,000 in damage.

The church says it plans to hold Sunday services at another campus in Hendersonville, Tennessee, and they hope to be back at Madison Church of Christ the following weekend.

Quoting 2209. Birthmark:

A berry that Norwegians steal from Sweden. Weren't you paying attention? :)


Thats not berry nice....
Quoting 2214. unknowncomic:
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?

It is the only berry that will grow in places that cold...maybe? Now you got me.
Quoting 2218. JLPR2:
Now the vorticity of the TW is looking interesting.

The 850mb vort (closest to the surface that CIMMS has) has a strange horseshoe shape with one of the legs aligned with the mid level vort (700mb and 500mb).

850mb:


700mb:


500mb:


Still not very impressive convection-.


Is there a low pressure center? If there is, would the convection try to organize and consolidate around the center, or is dry air preventing that?
What are Lingonberries? - A Scandinavian Cooking Definition

Link

A "Superfruit"
2225. sar2401
Quoting unknowncomic:
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?

It's kind of like a cranberry and makes really good jam. It's actually plentiful in all of Scandinavia, so I think Gro is pulling our legs a little about the helicopter thefts. No one here except Gro and his relatives would know about it if IKEA didn't start selling the stuff, and it became all the rage among the edgy folks who frequent IKEA stores.
2226. JLPR2
Quoting 2223. mitchelace5:


Is there a low pressure center? If you, would the convection organize and consolidate around the center, or is dry air preventing that?


Yes there is a low, OSCAT showed it very nicely, but right now convection is limited to a band to the SE of the circulation. We'll have to see if it can develop more tonight. There is dry air in the area and some will inevitably be pulled into the circulation.

So nothing eminent but at least something to watch.
I know a positive MJO causes lift and instability in the atmosphere, and increases moisture supply to TWs. But what effect does it have on wind shear? Does the positive MJO weaken it?
Quoting 2214. unknowncomic:
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?

These are part of why :)

One

Two

Three

Four

Can I have a little more?
oh 00z is running....
Quoting 2228. BaltimoreBrian:


There are part of why :)








looks tasty and a super fruit.
2231. sar2401
Quoting flsky:
A friend is driving to ECFL from northern Indiana on Monday. How do conditions look for his drive.


The storms are widely scattered and it just depends on if he runs into a slow moving bunch of them. Some places north of Birmingham got 2.5 inches today while we in SE AL got .23". As longs as his A/C works and he listens to the local NOAA weather radio on the way down, he should be OK. It was 102 today before our one little storm moved in, and it's still 79 now.
Quoting 2226. JLPR2:


Yes there is a low, OSCAT showed it very nicely, but right now convection is limited to a band to the SE of the circulation. We'll have to see if it can develop more tonight. There is dry air in the area and some will inevitably be pulled into the circulation.

So nothing eminent but at least something to watch.


Is the SAL building again?
Imagine if the USA had the average of landfalling Tropical Cyclones that the P.I. does. Below is for 2006.

The Philippines have experienced another busy but typical year in terms of tropical cyclone activity. The island chain often finds itself directly in the path of tropical cyclones that have formed upstream in the Western Pacific. Between 1984 and 2004, approximately 20 tropical cyclones per year on average have formed or entered the region with nearly 9 of those making landfall in the Philippines. In an average year, the Northwest Pacific basin typically sees 27 named storms, 17 typhoons, and 8.5 typhoons of category 3 or higher. So far this season there have been 22 storms, 15 typhoons and 7 super typhoons with nearly 2400 reported fatalities as a result.
Quoting 2220. flsky:
A friend is driving to ECFL from northern Indiana on Monday. How do conditions look for his drive.



Monday has a 40% chance of rain for Middle Tennessee, your friend should be good. The flood-waters have gone away, they went down Thursday afternoon, but Thursday morning was bad. One more inch and my street would've been blocked off by the usually tranquil creek that runs beside it, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll see if Utor can surpass Soulik as the strongest system in the northern hemisphere thus far. Soulik originated, interestingly, from an upper-level low that gained tropical characteristics over very warm sea surface temperatures over a span of several days. It reached a peak of 125 kt (145 mph).



There is the eye on visible now.



2236. JLPR2
Quoting 2232. mitchelace5:


Is the SAL building again?


Right now there isnt any new SAL emerging and the last burst is moving west just to the NW of the TW.
Additional strengthening should occur for the next 12-18 hours over very warm waters before making landfall on Luzon. Restrengthening is expected once entering into the South China Sea.



8-11-13 @ 3:00 utc. It looks like p22l has more go than p20l. And look what's coming...
BOC disturbance

Quoting 2236. JLPR2:


Right now there isnt any new SAL emerging and the last burst is moving west just to the NW of the TW.


Will the current SAL we have now dissipate in a few days?
Quoting 2238. seer2012:


8-11-13 @ 3:00 utc. It looks like p22l has more go than p20l.
That one looks massive, could be a large system.
2242. sar2401
Quoting mitchelace5:
I know a positive MJO causes lift and instability in the atmosphere, and increases moisture supply to TWs. But what effect does it have on wind shear? Does the positive MJO weaken it?

A positive MJO has very little influence on wind shear. It does cause ascending air, making convection more likely, but all the other pieces, like low wind shear and high vertical instability have to be in place before storms really get going.
Quoting 2236. JLPR2:


Right now there isnt any new SAL emerging and the last burst is moving west just to the NW of the TW.


Seems like the positive MJO may be kicking in already.
All this talk of military maneuvers over ligonberries is going to make me want to watch Winds of War and War and Remembrance again!
Birthmark: it's a little green melon-lookin berry but it acts like a little blue chalky round ting.
2246. sar2401
Quoting mitchelace5:


Will the current SAL we have now dissipate in a few days?

No, it takes at least a week. All it takes is the right circumstances with high winds, either from convective systems or high pressure systems, and the SAL can get cranked right up again. Like everything else this season, weak storms are going to be affected by SAL. Stronger systems are more likely to shrug it off.
Quoting 2219. Birthmark:

The real story in your post is that the "G" in "AGW" stands for "Global." Showing US temperature data to refute global warming is a bit like showing a state with a budget surplus and then claiming that that refutes the US deficit.



G stands for "Goober" go read the rest of it.
2249. JLPR2
Seems there is something in the BOC around hour 135.

2250. Grothar
Quoting 2216. sar2401:

Gro, the Swedes have one of the best air defense systems in Europe, and it has quite a sizable air force. The Norwegians barely have enough helicopters to fly the Crown Prince around. I imagine the Swedes could protect their ligonberries if push came to shove. :-)


There is very little borders control between the two countries and many towns are half in Norway and half in Sweden. The Norwegians have become quite wealthy and many of them own their own helicopters and fly over and actually steal the tyttebaerer or Lingonberries that only grow in that particular part of Sweden. And by the way, Norway is one of the most important members of NATO and I have actually served on a number of NATO missions with a few of the bloggers on here. Also, I grew up there.
Quoting 2247. PensacolaDoug:



G stands for "Goober" go read the rest of it.

Good gravy! There's more? lol

I think I'll pass until it comes out in peer-reviewed form. Blog rants that misuse science are a dime a dozen. I prefer real science, if it's all the same to you. :p
2252. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
All this talk of military maneuvers over ligonberries is going to make me want to watch Winds of War and War and Remembrance again!

LOL. I can just see the Swedish Air Defence Command now. "Forget those planes coming from Russia, we've got more ligonberry bogies coming in from the west.". :-)
Looks like the GFS wants to bring the system back. Back-n-forth this model goes where it goes no one knows.

Quoting 2251. Birthmark:

Good gravy! There's more? lol

I think I'll pass until it comes out in peer-reviewed form. Blog rants that misuse science are a dime a dozen. I prefer real science, if it's all the same to you. :p


Here's his Bio.

Joseph D' Aleo Chief Forecaster

Joseph D'Aleo is a partner at WeatherBELL and has been with the company since its inception. Mr. D'Aleo has a deep understanding of global oscillations and historical weather patterns. He uses an advanced statistical approach in applying this knowledge to weather and climate forecasting, specifically for the agriculture industry.

Mr. D'Aleo has over 30 years experience in professional meteorology. He was the first Director of Meteorology at the The Weather Channel. Mr. D'Aleo was Chief Meteorologist at WSI Corporation where he spent 17 years and created "Dr. Dewpoint" for WSI's popular Intellicast.com web site. He is a former college professor of Meteorology at Lyndon State College. He has authored and presented a number of papers as well as published a book focused on advanced applications enabled by new technologies and how research into ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has made skillful seasonal forecasts possible. Mr. D'Aleo has also authored many articles and made numerous presentations on the roles cycles in the sun and oceans have played in climate change.

Mr. D'Aleo is a Certified Consultant Meteorologist and was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). He has served as a member and chairman of the AMS Committee on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, and has co-chaired national conferences for both the AMS and the National Weather Association.

Joseph D'Aleo is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin and holds a Bachelors and Masters of Science.
2255. Grothar
Quoting 2245. redwagon:
Birthmark: it's a little green melon-lookin berry but it acts like a little blue chalky round ting.


They're red.
Quoting 2254. PensacolaDoug:



How's that Kool-Aid?

Science isn't Kool-Aid, silly! Anti-science is. You can get it on any number of anti-science blogs. AGW, Evolution, Relativity, and the Big Bang are all "disproved" regularly on such blogs.

Somehow, those disproofs never seem to make it into the peer-reviewed literature.

Darnedest thing. lol

(And for the record, it wasn't Kool-Aid. It was Flavor-Aid.)
2257. Grothar
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)

img src="">
Quoting 2239. unknowncomic:
BOC disturbance


more like Gulf of Honduras system
Is everything Dr. Masters puts up here "peer-reviewed"?

Quoting 2251. Birthmark:

Good gravy! There's more? lol

I think I'll pass until it comes out in peer-reviewed form. Blog rants that misuse science are a dime a dozen. I prefer real science, if it's all the same to you. :p

While others bring up Kool Aid I'll find some lingonberry gravy. Good Gravy indeed!

Five

Six

Ah, that's better. Another plate of meatballs with lingonberry gravy Birthmark?
So, Joe D'Aleo is "anti-science"?
Quoting 2259. PensacolaDoug:
Is everything Dr. Masters puts up here "peer-reviewed"?


Nope. But it isn't posted to refute or advance science, either. It is educational in nature. It is evidence of nothing...much like the link you posted above.
The CMC MODEL has a Storm developing in the GULF OF MEXICO in about 7 days. The Navy Model also shows the same system in the NW Caribbean. Need to watch how this plays out.

Quoting 2257. Grothar:
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)

img src="">

Brutal.
Good evening everyone

So....It's bad enough that I have to suffer through Aislin's incredible breakfast postings, now I have to go through this ridiculous sweet craving I've just developed. Thanks, Brian.

Lindy
2266. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


There is very little borders control between the two countries and many towns are half in Norway and half in Sweden. The Norwegians have become quite wealthy and many of them own their own helicopters and fly over and actually steal the tyttebaerer or Lingonberries that only grow in that particular part of Sweden. And by the way, Norway is one of the most important members of NATO and I have actually served on a number of NATO missions with a few of the bloggers on here. Also, I grew up there.

Oh, private helicopters. Good heavens, here we have private birds flying cocaine and Norway has ligonberry smugglers. I didn't mean to play down the role of Norway in NATO. They provide the main anti-submarine and mine hunting forces to the Northern Command of NATO. I just meant that, if an all-out ligonberry war developed, Norway's 57 aging F-16 fighters might have a difficult time against the Swedish Air Force's 130 or so JAS 39 Grippen fighters. :-)
Quoting 2261. PensacolaDoug:
So Joe D'Aleo is "anti-science"?

I don't know him well enough to say (or at all). He certainly posts anti-science garbage on a fairly regular basis.
Just a note: Hurricane Cleo, a strong cat.-2 storm made a direct hit on Miami and MiamiBeach on August 27th, 1964 with 110-MPH sustained winds and gusts to 135-MPH. Coconut palm trees were knocked down by the thousands and windows held together with masking tape were smashed to pieces. So get ready everyone. I think the show is about to begin.
2269. Gearsts
I wish there was commentary from the FIM developers to explain the three sets. Then there's that one extremely obscure experimental model Gro posts from time to time. Starts with Etn or something.
Quoting 2267. Birthmark:

I don't know him well enough to say (or at all). He certainly posts anti-science garbage on a fairly regular basis.


riiighhhttt....
Quoting 2257. Grothar:
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)

img src="">



They had brutal fleets back in the day.
2274. Grothar
Quoting 2270. redwagon:
I wish there was commentary from the FIM developers to explain the three sets. Then there's that one extremely obscure experimental model Gro posts from time to time. Starts with Etn or something.


I'm really not supposed to post that anymore. It is not for general publication. If I do it again, they are going to pull my library card.
Quoting 2263. TampaSpin:
The CMC MODEL has a Storm developing in the GULF OF MEXICO in about 7 days. The Navy Model also shows the same system in the NW Caribbean. Need to watch how this plays out.



There was another model that showed something similar I posted a couple hundred comments ago. It may have been the same model. Nope different one, I'll post it again. It's the GEM.

2276. Grothar
Quoting 2266. sar2401:

Oh, private helicopters. Good heavens, here we have private birds flying cocaine and Norway has ligonberry smugglers. I didn't mean to play down the role of Norway in NATO. They provide the main anti-submarine and mine hunting forces to the Northern Command of NATO. I just meant that, if an all-out ligonberry war developed, Norway's 57 aging F-16 fighters might have a difficult time against the Swedish Air Force's 130 or so JAS 39 Grippen fighters. :-)


The Swedes just like to brag.
Quoting 2270. redwagon:
I wish there was commentary from the FIM developers to explain the three sets. Then there's that one extremely obscure experimental model Gro posts from time to time. Starts with Etn or something.


I asked the question about FIM yesterday. FIM7 & 8 are lower resolution, so less accurate than FIM9. FIM9 goes out 7 days, whereas 7 and 8 go out 14. Any more info than that and an expert will have to answer.
Quoting Civicane49:
Additional strengthening should occur for the next 12-18 hours over very warm waters before making landfall on Luzon. Restrengthening is expected once entering into the South China Sea.



Well,,, I am worried as my Wife has all of her family there and we will be going there in just over 4 months. I know exactly where Utor will travel. The mountain range that is in it's path will hurt it a fair bit but will also cause flash flooding.

Eye continues to clear out.

2280. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)



Those Norwegians looked pretty deadly with that fire hose. I'm almost certain I saw one of those sailors with what looked like an itchy trigger finger on the 7.62mm machine gun though. :-)

2281. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


Well,,, I am worried as my Wife has all of her family there and we will be going there in just over 4 months. I know exactly where Utor will travel. The mountain range that is in it's path will hurt it a fair bit but will also cause flash flooding.


That cone is starting to move toward Vietnam also, which is pretty unusual. I hope it's not too bad in the Philippines, but they always seem to catch the worst of it from typhoons.
Quoting 2266. sar2401:

Oh, private helicopters. Good heavens, here we have private birds flying cocaine and Norway has ligonberry smugglers. I didn't mean to play down the role of Norway in NATO. They provide the main anti-submarine and mine hunting forces to the Northern Command of NATO. I just meant that, if an all-out ligonberry war developed, Norway's 57 aging F-16 fighters might have a difficult time against the Swedish Air Force's 130 or so JAS 39 Grippen fighters. :-)


Norway's looking better and better. No debt. Helipad in every backyard. Humanitarian attitude. And scrumptious ligonberry treats on every table.
Quoting 2275. BaltimoreBrian:


There was another model that showed something similar I posted a couple hundred comments ago. It may have been the same model. Nope different one, I'll post it again. It's the GEM.




The Navy Model also shows a system in the NW Caribbean a little slower arriving in the GOM but it is the same system developing.
2284. Siker
Quoting 2275. BaltimoreBrian:


There was another model that showed something similar I posted a couple hundred comments ago. It may have been the same model. Nope different one, I'll post it again. It's the GEM.

The GEM and CMC both refer to the same model, just FYI.
Quoting 2213. PensacolaDoug:
The real story about temperatures - you won't hear about on TWC

Joe D'Aleo
Weatherbell



August 10 08:45 AM

A recent story that made the headlines and appeared as hard news on the NBC Universal comedy channel called The Weather Channel said the warming is ten times faster than any time in history and we are now warmer than since the dinosaurs roamed the planet. Lets take a look at the data and we'll see the apparent warming may be man made but the men are in the NOAA climate data center. A little more than a decade ago I was championing NOAA NCDC for their efforts to assemble an accurate data set for the CONUS. We knew at the time it had flaws, but it was widely recognized as the best in the world.

NOAA NCDC USHCN

When first implemented in 1990 as USHCN version1, it employed 1221 stations across the United States. In 1999, NASA%u2019s James Hansen published this graph of USHCN version 1 annual mean temperatures:



About which Hansen correctly noted: %u201CThe U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.%u201D

USHCN was generally accepted as the world%u2019s best data base of temperatures with the stations most continuous and stable, and adjustments made for time of observation, urbanization, known land use changes around sites each of which can produce major contamination issues for temperature data.

URBAN HEAT ISLAND

There is no real dispute that weather data from cities, as collected by meteorological stations, is contaminated by urban heat island (UHI) bias, and that this has to be removed to identify climatic changes or trends. In cities, vertical walls, steel and concrete absorb the sun%u2019s heat and are slow to cool at night. More and more of the world is urbanized (population increased from 1.5 B to near 7 B today).

The UHI effect occurs not only for big cities but also for towns. Oke (who won the 2008 American Meteorological Society%u2019s Helmut Landsberg award for his pioneer work on urbanization) had a formula for the warming that is tied to population. Oke (1973) found that the UHI (in %uFFFFC) increases according to the formula

UHI= 0.73 log10 POP

where pop denotes population. This means that a village with a population of 10 has a warm bias of 0.73%uFFFFC, a village with 100 has a warm bias of 1.46%uFFFFC, a town with a population of 1000 people has a warm bias of 2.2C%uFFFF, and a large city with a million people has a warm bias of 4.4%uFFFFC.



Urban heat islands as seen from infrared sensors onboard satellites.

Goodrich (1996) showed the importance of urbanization to temperatures in his study of California counties in 1996. He found for counties with a million or more population the warming from 1910 to 1995 was 4F, for counties with 100,000 to 1 million, 1F and for counties with less than 100,000, no change (0.1F).




NCDC%u2019s Tom Karl(1988) employed a similar scheme for the first USHCN data base (released in 1990) that was the best data set available at that time. He noted that the national climate network formerly consisted of predominantly rural or small towns with populations below 25,000 (as of 1980 census) and yet that a UHI effect was clearly evident.

Tom Karl et al%u2019s adjustments were smaller than Oke had found (0.22%uFFFFC annually on a town of 10,000 and 1.81%uFFFFC on a city of 1 million and 3.73%uFFFFC for a city of 5 million).

Karl observed that in smaller towns and rural areas the net UHI contamination was relatively small but that significant anomalies showed up in rapidly growing population centers.

USHCN also maintained a METADATA base (later shown by Anthony Watts in surfacestations.org project to be not by any means perfect) that identified changes in observing site locations and instrumentation and supposedly made adjustments accordingly, along with adjustment for change in the time of observation over the years.

Note in the graph above 1934 at that time had an anomaly of close to 1.5C (2.7F) and 1998, the super El Nino (about 0.95C (roughly 1.8F). In the early 2000s, some state climatologists began to notice a gradual change in the historical data, with the past beginning to cool.

The was a dilemma that was causing angst among the UN, US and global scientist in trying to explain why the US was out of sync with the global assessment which minimized the cyclical nature and amplified the apparent warming. This was largely because the global contained no adjustment for urbanization and was biased toward urban areas, especially after the big drop off of stations used starting in the late 1980s.

There was a disclaimer on the NASA site that showed global and US, under the US that the US only represented only 1.6% of the world and thus was not representtive of the real alarming story.

In 2007, NCDC announced version 2 of the USHCN was to be released. It removed the UHI adjustment and replaced it withan adjustment that was designed to catch previously undocumented inhomogeneities (station location changes). It added additional coop station and a process called homogenization or blending of stations. Though Tom Karl assured me his staff told him it would catch UHI changes, in reality those changes are gradual not discontinuous. Take for example Sacramento, California.



It would or at last should spot the sudden change as occurred at Tahoe City, CA when a tennis court and trash burn barrel were placed around the shelter in 1980. The clay or paved court was a heat source. Specifications for instruments are that they are to be located 100 feet from any such heat source.

Well the new version brought big changes. Instead of 1934 being 0.9F warmer than 1998, 1998 actually became warmer than 1934. were virtually the same and an upward trend in the overall temperatures were visible that was not there in the 1999 plot. Here is that new version with data brought up to 2012.

In this NASA version of the USHCN data, the base period of 1951-1980 was used.
The NCDC version of temperatures not anomalies in degrees F and C is plotted below. It has a base period of 1901 to 2000. Notice again than 1998 i warmer than 1934 by 0.2F. That is a flip of 1.1F since USHCN.I calculated anomalies and did a difference of the two versions. The 'dust bowl deniers' have pretty much ensured that every month, season, year and decade will rank now among the warmest ever and TWC can make the ridiculous claim that were are now warmer than anytime since dinosaurs walked the earth.The only data set not messed with their new adjustments is the record highs and lows. Although some at NCAR have suggested that too needs to be adjusted, it is in too many places - in every TV station and local office and would be much more noticeable than adjusting the annual means in the way they did.

Here are the plots of record highs - all time state and monthly all time state and daily cities with long histories. they are all much more in sync with the USHCN version 1 and likely the real story. Notice the dominance of the 1930s.
Finally how good are these homogenization adjustments that are said to be the replacement for UHI?

Dr Edward Long, formerly with NASA did a study for the lower 48 states using representative urban and rural locations. In the raw data, Dr. Long found the rural warmed at 0.13C/century (0.23F) and the urban 0.79C/century (1.42F).
One would expect the rural to be the better uncontaminated data set and any blending should bias the urban heat towards the rural cooler set, but that is not what happens. the rural trends leaps to 0.64C (1.15F)/century and the urban stays high at 0.77C (1.39F/century).A team of scientists looked at the issue urban and siting contamination in a paper that will soon be published. They found that siting/urban contamination matters and that NOAA adjustments clearly make the final results worse not better.

This study was only for the period 1979 to 2008, covering the warm PDO and grand solar maximum which produced the two decade warming, not the entire century..
In fact if they did not migrate away from USHCN v1 and maintained the UHI, the 2000s would be the second warmest decade behind the 1930s in line withe the record highs.Is the global any better?

As if it wasn't bad enough before, the recent changes have amplified it too, in the same way of cooling the past and warming recent years. Some of this is the bleed through of the US adjustments.
Even with all this data manipulation, the trend is down as shown by this Hadley global plot. Last year was the 8th warmest but 7th coldest since 1998. They explain it away with the predominance of La Ninas or a solar blip but say it was the warmest decade ever nonetheless so stop questioning us.So next time you read that July or that 2013 ranked in the top ten warmest ever, and the last decade was the warmest since the dinosaurs roamed the planet keep these facts in mind.The temperature data's only relationship to the dinosaurs was shown in the movie Jurassic Park.By the way, CO2 in prior epochs was much higher than today. We are in the low end of the range that plants thrive.


Seriously Doug. I know your not a dumb guy. Why get sucked into the backwash of blog journalism. The US is not nor has ever been global. Before trying to argue these advance concepts on the interwebs, start with the first proposition put out. CO2 in the atmosphere allows less heat energy to escape back out into space. The first time you can disprove the most basic of arguments, then we can get into the more advanced concepts. You have been duped my friend, possibly caught up in the political aspect of the whole issue. Instead of giving us a bunch of copy pasta, focus on the first argument and refute it. Increased CO2 causes less heat energy to escape the planet and causes more to stay here, thereby raising global temperatures.
Quoting 2284. Siker:
The GEM and CMC both refer to the same model, just FYI.


Is that really so? I had no idea.
Quoting sar2401:

That cone is starting to move toward Vietnam also, which is pretty unusual. I hope it's not too bad in the Philippines, but they always seem to catch the worst of it from typhoons.




Tomorrow I feel there will be a bigger area of red.
Convection redeveloping near Henriette's center.

2289. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


The Swedes just like to brag.

Well, if you don't count Count Carl Gustaf von Rosen and his crazed Swedish pilots fighting for Biafra in the late 60's, the last war Sweden was in was 1814, when they invaded Norway, probably to protect their precious ligonberry supply, so they don't have a lot to brag about. :-)
The Etn model almost seems like the cyclogenesis run that the other FIMs use for start-points.

FIM seems to be out-running GFS all around.
Looks like the best this run can come up with 1012 low in the Central Atlantic. May develop 50-55W.

UW-CIMSS ADT just went through the roof, courtesy of Utor's "dreaded" pinhole eye.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Utor looks powerful.

And just as expected, Raw T-values from ADT skyrocket now that we have an eye present.

2013AUG11 040000 4.6 973.7 79.6 4.6 4.6 6.7 MW ON OFF OFF -25.57 -77.84 EYE/P -99 IR 52.2 14.91 -125.05 SPRL MTSAT2 28.9

Quoting 2291. Astrometeor:


Hey Astro - did you see that NWS web briefing I posted last night about the MO flooding? Seemed like something you'd like (non-tropical)
Quoting 2293. TropicalAnalystwx13:
UW-CIMSS ADT just went through the roof, courtesy of Utor's "dreaded" pinhole eye.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
You just had to post this a minute before me huh? LOL
Quoting 2296. LAbonbon:


Hey Astro - did you see that NWS web briefing I posted last night about the MO flooding? Seemed like something you'd like (non-tropical)


No, I might have gone to bed. Can you give me the link? But I did hear they got something around 16 inches. Is that true?
Quoting 2294. unknowncomic:
Utor looks powerful.


It is indeed a nasty looking piece of weather. Best wishes for the safety of all those in its path.
Quoting 2298. Astrometeor:


No, I might have gone to bed. Can you give me the link? But I did hear they got something around 16 inches. Is that true?


Here you go. Yeah, on the order of 15 in.

Link
Please don't quote the Whackos.

I tell ya, you folks that non-stop yak about AGW/Climate Change, pro or con, and seem to enjoy your snide comments to one another are going on ignore. Enough already! Make a cognizant civil post and shutup! Someone might actually enjoy reading commentary and learning something if the comments weren't so danged snarky!

I know we're in a lull, but sheesh, give it a rest!
Quoting 2303. moonlightcowboy:
I tell ya, you folks that non-stop yak about AGW/Climate Change, pro or con, and seem to enjoy your snide comments to one another are going on ignore. Enough already! Make a cognizant civil post and shutup!

I know we're in a lull, but sheesh, give it a rest!

I agree. The snide comments about the models and weather are far, far superior. :)
whooo hoooo I was able to mow all three acres today in one fell swoop without interruption from rain.
What a beast!

2307. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Norway's looking better and better. No debt. Helipad in every backyard. Humanitarian attitude. And scrumptious ligonberry treats on every table.

Norway had two things happen, one good luck and the other smart economics. The good luck was the finding of large amounts of oil and gas in the its sovereign waters in the North Sea. Exporting about $160 billion a year in oil is a big deal for a country the size of Norway, and has allowed to maintain a lot of social programs that would have been impossible without oil revenue. All that oil money and relatively high wages has also allowed the Norwegian government to tax everything that moves. :-)

The smart economic move was joining the EU but not adopting the Euro. The Norwegian Kroner is one of the most stable currencies in the world, and they're not stuck having to pay off the debt of Greece, Portugal, and all the other sick men of Europe. The only cloud on the horizon is a looming real estate bubble that is very large compared to the population. That will be a major challenge over the next 10 years.
Quoting 2301. LAbonbon:


Here you go. Yeah, on the order of 15 in.

Link


Thanks, watched the whole thing. They had it worse than we did, I'd hate to see 15 inches again here in Nashville. The first time was enough drama.


With that I'm off. Good night blog.
Quoting 2307. sar2401:

Norway had two things happen, one good luck and the other smart economics. The good luck was the finding of large amounts of oil and gas in the its sovereign waters in the North Sea. Exporting about $160 billion a year in oil is a big deal for a country the size of Norway, and has allowed to maintain a lot of social programs that would have been impossible without oil revenue. All that oil money and relatively high wages has also allowed the Norwegian government to tax everything that moves. :-)

The smart economic move was joining the EU but not adopting the Euro. The Norwegian Kroner is one of the most stable currencies in the world, and they're not stuck having to pay off the debt of Greece, Portugal, and all the other sick men of Europe. The only cloud on the horizon is a looming real estate bubble that is very large compared to the population. That will be a major challenge over the next 10 years.


So they are in the EU? Huh-Wiki was incorrect.
Quoting Ameister12:
What a beast!



Not yet, It's just getting started.
Evening all. Really was glad when the dorian mess finally ended several weeks back that storm proved very annoying.


Only got time for a short one so basically I will echo what dr masters said in this post, we are looking at a very dangerous season.

Not going to that many fish storms, and given the current pattern it looks like when the season kicks off it will go fast and furious all at once, possibly up to 6 named storms at once is not out of the question given our current global pattern.

Based on the mjo and moisture changes already occurring I fully expect us to see kickoff around the 15th or a few days later.


Make sure you have reviewed your hurricane plans and emergency supplies, and keep your eyes open for the next couple months.

Gn all.
We will have massive disaster if this is right wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

New model has a massive hurricane barreling into Hong Kong!! This is the strongest cyclone on the model I ever seen!!
I hope people know that a major disaster might be happening to the Philippines and then Hong Kong if this is right!!
Quoting 2309. LAbonbon:


So they are in the EU? Huh-Wiki was incorrect.


Norway is NOT in the EU. Norwegians voted it down in 1994.
Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P
Quoting 2314. BaltimoreBrian:


Norway is NOT in the EU. Norwegians voted it down in 1994.


You are quick! Was trying to verify. Good to know Wiki was correct.

On that note, it's past my bedtime. Good night all.
Quoting 2315. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P

Rioting? Wow. I guess I missed quite a bit when I was away for the day! :P
Quoting 2315. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P


Dude - rioting? LOL. When it gets tense I mostly avoid reading the crossfires (posts) until the shooting stops. Easier that way. Avoidance is key :) But yes, coast is clear...I think.
Quoting 2315. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P

What time do the FIM models come out?
Pensacola Doug at least tries to make a counter argument, basing that urban heating in large cities have unfairly been used to measure the rise in global temps. Stating large cities have been warming at faster rates than rural areas with small populations. That's true. Atlanta has been warming very quickly over the last thirty years for the very obvious reasons Doug stated, while more rural towns haven't warmed as quickly. The warming climate numbers scientists use to measure global temps though is global means, encompassing all towns/cities and every other area on the planet for all seasons. The conclusion is concise, the planet is warming at rates not seen in human times because of CO2 output. The North Pole is a perfect example of this, it's warming much faster than other areas, seas are rising, and the Northern Hemisphere's warming has caused the jet stream to change, and it has nothing to do with the number of large heavily populated cities at the North Pole. More moisture/heat equals more extreme floods and more extreme droughts. It's a pretty simple equation: as more CO2 is released temperatures can but rise. Doug stated CO2 levels are at the low range of where plants can survive. That's true. For many animals, insects, fish, that's not the same story.
New TWO is out and it kills GOM system
Quoting 2311. DataNerd:
Evening all. Really was glad when the dorian mess finally ended several weeks back that storm proved very annoying.


Only got time for a short one so basically I will echo what dr masters said in this post, we are looking at a very dangerous season.

Not going to that many fish storms, and given the current pattern it looks like when the season kicks off it will go fast and furious all at once, possibly up to 6 named storms at once is not out of the question given our current global pattern.

Based on the mjo and moisture changes already occurring I fully expect us to see kickoff around the 15th or a few days later.


Make sure you have reviewed your hurricane plans and emergency supplies, and keep your eyes open for the next couple months.

Gn all.


Quoting 2311. DataNerd:
Evening all. Really was glad when the dorian mess finally ended several weeks back that storm proved very annoying.


Only got time for a short one so basically I will echo what dr masters said in this post, we are looking at a very dangerous season.

Not going to that many fish storms, and given the current pattern it looks like when the season kicks off it will go fast and furious all at once, possibly up to 6 named storms at once is not out of the question given our current global pattern.

Based on the mjo and moisture changes already occurring I fully expect us to see kickoff around the 15th or a few days later.


Make sure you have reviewed your hurricane plans and emergency supplies, and keep your eyes open for the next couple months.

Gn all.


I've been lucky here in southern Florida for 7 years.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting 2321. wunderkidcayman:
New TWO is out and it kills GOM system
does that mean no storm then
?
Quoting 2325. Socalmargie:
does that mean no storm then
?


for now
Quoting 2326. mitchelace5:


for now
yeah yeah yeah
Quoting 2327. Socalmargie:
yeah yeah yeah


ok if you say so
Quoting 2327. Socalmargie:
yeah yeah yeah


Whatever you say
Wrong system.. that system is late next week!!
Category 5 for $100.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2

Moonlightcowboy, ya I know what your saying. Trying to get those on opposite sides of the AGW debate to change their minds is like trying to find a consensus between the Right and Left in congress. Sorry if I kicked it off with the Yoboi back and forth. I had made my point, I didn't have to continue the back and forth with him. This monster of a typhoon is much more interesting right now and the Philippines are in for some real hurt. Not to mention it's what the majority here want to focus on right now. Oh and Norway, can't leave it out as a popular subject tonight. Respecting what the blog wants is part of being a good member, so I do apologize to everyone if I started the tension with the Yoboi back and forth.

What's the opposite of Congress? Progress.
I'd definitely say it's undergoing another stage of rapid intensification. I'd probably put the intensity somewhere near 120kts.

Quoting 2310. AussieStorm:


Not yet, It's just getting started.

Nah, I'd say Utor is most definitely a beast right now. :)
Quoting 2331. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Category 5 for $100.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2

It finally analyzed a warmer temperature within the eye.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2

Which is funny considering it still isn't positioned within the absolute center/warmest portion of the eye.

Quoting 2331. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Category 5 for $100.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2


You wanna actually bet that? :P
Yeah I'd say a very good chance of become a Cat-5.
Quoting 2336. wxchaser97:

You wanna actually bet that? :P
Yeah I'd say a very good chance of become a Cat-5.
It will definitely get close. We'll have to see. An eye this compact is prone to go under an EWRC.
2338. yqt1001
Super typhoon is at 130kts, it's getting very close. The very tiny eye will be clear soon.



Quoting 2337. MiamiHurricanes09:
It will definitely get close. We'll have to see. An eye this compact is prone to go under an EWRC.

True, but it doesn't have too much longer to go before hitting Cat-5 strength. I hope it does get to category 5 strength.
I have a friend at work that's from the Philippines. I'm not sure which part, but perhaps he could educate me on the building codes in the area, and the structural vulnerability to major typhoons.
2341. sar2401
Quoting wxchaser97:

True, but it doesn't have too much longer to go before hitting Cat-5 strength. I hope it does get to category 5 strength.

It's about to make mincemeat out of the Philippines. Let's try to show a little sensitivity here.
2342. TXCWC
Quoting 2277. LAbonbon:


I asked the question about FIM yesterday. FIM7 & 8 are lower resolution, so less accurate than FIM9. FIM9 goes out 7 days, whereas 7 and 8 go out 14. Any more info than that and an expert will have to answer.


Actually both FIM 8 and FIM 9 are pretty good track models with FIM 9 having a reslotion of 15km (same or about the same as the Euro) and FIM 8 a resolution of 30KM which is comparable to GFS resolution of around 28KM.

As for storm track accuracy between FIM 9, FIM 8, GFS, and Euro this is the best info I have seen in my brief research...it is a large online noaa/hfip pdf file so may take a minute to load but definitely recommend a look at if interested: Link
Quoting 2340. KoritheMan:
I have a friend at work that's from the Philippines. I'm not sure which part, but perhaps he could educate me on the building codes in the area, and the structural vulnerability to major typhoons.


Building codes? Third world shacks on deforested mountains and hills is the story Kori.
2344. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:
I have a friend at work that's from the Philippines. I'm not sure which part, but perhaps he could educate me on the building codes in the area, and the structural vulnerability to major typhoons.

Parts of Metro Manila are pretty good. The huge slum areas are always a disaster. Most other parts of the Philippines, the building code doesn't matter much, it's flooding and landslides that are the killers.
Quoting 2339. wxchaser97:

True, but it doesn't have too much longer to go before hitting Cat-5 strength. I hope it does get to category 5 strength.


You won't be saying that if we had a storm like that in the Atlantic.
Eye has really cleared out over the last few hours. Utor is definitely a monster.

Quoting 2341. sar2401:

It's about to make mincemeat out of the Philippines. Let's try to show a little sensitivity here.


As someone who wants to experience major hurricane landfalls, I agree that comments like this should be kept to oneself.

However, I've known Isaac for awhile now, and I don't think he meant anything by it.

Let it go.
Quoting 2341. sar2401:

It's about to make mincemeat out of the Philippines. Let's try to show a little sensitivity here.

Maybe it gets to Cat-5 strength, but then has an EWRC that weakens it down a couple categories before it makes landfall. I know, this isn't a perfect world and that probably won't happen.
Quoting 2346. Civicane49:
Eye has really cleared out over the last few hours.



Perhaps it will be in the downside of an EWRC when it makes landfall. I hope so.
Quoting 2345. mitchelace5:


You won't be saying that if we had a storm like that in the Atlantic.


don't be so sure.....
or so sensitive
Quoting 2343. BaltimoreBrian:


Building codes? Third world shacks on deforested mountains and hills is the story Kori.


Kinda figured. It sounds a lot like Haiti, where unless you live in a major city, you're going to have a tough time of it.
The population of the Philippines is estimated to reach 100 million this year up from 27 million in 1960. A lot of land on hills has been cleared for agriculture, forestry and dwellings. It's a crowded country.
Look out philippines...
Quoting 2351. KoritheMan:


Kinda figured. It sounds a lot like Haiti, where unless you live in a major city, you're going to have a tough time of it.


Philippines is not at the Haiti level of deprivation but it is pretty it has severe land shortages in many areas. Lots of deforestation.
2355. sar2401
Quoting Socalmargie:
does that mean no storm then
?

They just erased a circle that never had a chance anyway. I'm not sure why the NHC even bothers with a disorganized system that is for sure making landfall in 24 hours. I guess they just want to show they're paying attention.
Now this is a hurricane. I haven't gotten many chances to forecast something like this in recent years, so I'm not gonna miss that chance now.

*gets to blogging*
Quoting 2354. BaltimoreBrian:


Philippines is not at the Haiti level of deprivation but it is pretty it has severe land shortages in many areas. Lots of deforestation.


And we all know what that means...
Actually the city near to the possible landfall is Baler, Aurora and has a population of ~39,000 to 40,000 habitants...
Link
2359. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


As someone who wants to experience major hurricane landfalls, I agree that comments like this should be kept to oneself.

However, I've known Isaac for awhile now, and I don't think he meant anything by it.

Let it go.

I realize it's just enthusiasm, but Aussie posted just a few hours ago that his wife is from the part of the Philippines that's about to get hit and has family there. Just as a courtesy to fellow bloggers, we need to remember this is a worldwide blog, and EPAC storms are not just there to amuse us.
I have read that this Baguio has had more recorded instances of 24-hour rainfalls of 1 meter or more than any other place. The obs could be very interesting over the next few days.
Quoting 2191. MiamiHurricanes09:
Eye feature slowly becoming more pronounced. Utor continues to strengthen.

Looks like a cat 4.
Quoting 2356. KoritheMan:
Now this is a hurricane. I haven't gotten many chances to forecast something like this in recent years, so I'm not gonna miss that chance now.

*gets to blogging*

Ehem, Typhoon. :P
Quoting 2359. sar2401:

I realize it's just enthusiasm, but Aussie posted just a few hours ago that his wife is from the part of the Philippines that's about to get hit and has family there. Just as a courtesy to fellow bloggers, we need to remember this is a worldwide blog, and EPAC storms are not just there to amuse us.


Oh, I agree. I don't really hide that I want hurricane landfalls, and that I like to forecast and experience them, but if you notice, I really only say that during quiet periods. I wouldn't, in a million years, consider saying something like that during an active storm, for what should be obvious reasons to anyone. In those particular cases, I would keep those thoughts entirely to myself.
Quoting 2362. Ameister12:

Ehem, Typhoon. :P


I've been doing this for five years, going on six. I know the difference, genius. :P
2365. Siker
Quoting 2359. sar2401:

I realize it's just enthusiasm, but Aussie posted just a few hours ago that his wife is from the part of the Philippines that's about to get hit and has family there. Just as a courtesy to fellow bloggers, we need to remember this is a worldwide blog, and EPAC storms are not just there to amuse us.
Nor WPAC storms. :)
Not only strong winds are the major concern, but also very heavy rain, which could lead to catastrophic flooding.

Quoting 2356. KoritheMan:
Now this is a hurricane. I haven't gotten many chances to forecast something like this in recent years, so I'm not gonna miss that chance now.

*gets to blogging*
Like the enthusiasm buddy, keep up the good work, look forward to reading your blog update. And in return I will keep you posted on what the FIM says. :)
Baguio averages 42.2" of rain in July and 45.7" in August. I assume the ground is saturated in the mountains.
2369. yqt1001


That's clear.
Quoting 2367. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Like the enthusiasm buddy, keep up the good work, look forward to reading your blog update. And in return I will keep you posted on what the FIM says. :)


As long as you promise to give me good news!
Baguio is close to the projected path. I think what happens at a high mountain location in the path of a strong typhoon could be interesting.
"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median"

If this lack of tropical cyclones continues with that much energy built up in the atmosphere, it could mean some wicked winter storms for this winter...
2373. yqt1001
Quoting 2372. charlesimages:
"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median"

If this lack of tropical cyclones continues with that much energy built up in the atmosphere, it could mean some wicked winter storms for this winter...


I suspect most of that excess storm energy in winter would go off to Europe if we had a true hurricane season bust this year.
As I see it right now, Utor is pretty much an unavoidable disaster for the Philippines. It really doesn't matter if it ends up remaining a category 3, or gets upgraded to a category 4/5, it's gonna cause a lot of destruction. Its rating means nothing.
Anyone know where I can find a western Pacific tracking map to create forecast tracks for storms in that basin? I've scoured the net tirelessly for them, but I'm not having any luck.
Eye temperature analyzed in the positive numbers by ADT, even though it's slightly displaced to the west. All signs point towards Utor undergoing rapid intensification.

2013AUG11 053000 5.1 963.9 92.4 5.1 6.1 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 3.24 -77.85 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.11 -124.76 COMBO MTSAT2 29.3
Quoting 2376. Ameister12:
As I see it right now, Utor is pretty much an unavoidable disaster for the Philippines. It really doesn't matter if it ends up remaining (for some reason) a category 3, or gets upgraded to a category 4/5, it's gonna cause a lot of destruction. It's rating means nothing.


Agreed. Regardless of its strength, high winds, heavy rain, and storm surge will still result in catastrophic damage.
2381. Gearsts
Pushing for a 5!
2382. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Pensacola Doug at least tries to make a counter argument, basing that urban heating in large cities have unfairly been used to measure the rise in global temps. Stating large cities have been warming at faster rates than rural areas with small populations. That's true. Atlanta has been warming very quickly over the last thirty years for the very obvious reasons Doug stated, while more rural towns haven't warmed as quickly. The warming climate numbers scientists use to measure global temps though is global means, encompassing all towns/cities and every other area on the planet for all seasons. The conclusion is concise, the planet is warming at rates not seen in human times because of CO2 output. The North Pole is a perfect example of this, it's warming much faster than other areas, seas are rising, and the Northern Hemisphere's warming has caused the jet stream to change, and it has nothing to do with the number of large heavily populated cities at the North Pole. More moisture/heat equals more extreme floods and more extreme droughts. It's a pretty simple equation: as more CO2 is released temperatures can but rise. Doug stated CO2 levels are at the low range of where plants can survive. That's true. For many animals, insects, fish, that's not the same story.

Without getting into the whole Co2 issue, the heat island thing is really more pervasive than one might think. I live in a town of only 13,000, and the population has actually fallen about 5% since 2000, mainly because we've had so many textile mills close down. During that same period. "out of town" has been more or less paved over, as a SuperWalmart and several shopping centers have been built. We are the only city of any size within about 40 miles, so we are still a shopping destination. The average high has crept up about one degree in the last 10 years, and the average low,even in winter, has risen by the same amount. We are surrounded by a huge lake, so it's very easy to experience temperature changes driving from my home to these shopping areas. On a summer night, you can feel the obvious increase in temperature with all this blacktop compared to driving across the lake. In the winter, there will be puddles in the woods with ice on them while the puddles in the Walmart parking lot remain ice-free. If this heat island effect is so obvious and pronounced in a small town like mine, imagine New York, Los Angeles, Beijing, or New Delhi. I don't know if we really have a handle on this, but I think the cumulative effect must be huge.
Utor is beautiful. I get why Sar is so sensitive though, there are probably dozens at the minimum in the Philippines who have absolutely no idea, this time tomorrow they will no longer be here. They know Utor is bearing down on them, but they don't know that He will bring death to their door. Over 150,000 people die each day in the world, it's just the nature of our fragile existence. It's sad though, praying for the Philippines tonight. What a beast of a storm.
2384. sar2401
Quoting Siker:
Nor WPAC storms. :)

Yes, those too, especially when it's late at night. :-)
Quoting 2380. BaltimoreBrian:


Seems okay, except... how do I erase the tropical cyclone points? Is that even possible?
Probably won't see a cyclone this beautiful in a while.

Quoting 2377. KoritheMan:
Anyone know where I can find a western Pacific tracking map to create forecast tracks for storms in that basin? I've scoured the net tirelessly for them, but I'm not having any luck.

This is the best I can find and hopefully it is what you're looking for. WPac tracking map
Quoting 2383. Tribucanes:
Utor is beautiful. I get why Sar is so sensitive though, there are probably dozens at the minimum in the Philippines who have absolutely no idea, this time tomorrow they will no longer be here. They know Utor is bearing down on them, but they don't know that He will bring death to their door. Over 150,000 people die each day in the world, it's just the nature of our fragile existence. It's sad though, praying for the Philippines tonight. What a beast of a storm.


One critical part of possessing a desire for hurricane landfalls is humility and compassion. I want another hurricane strike so much I can hardly stand it. However, if by some chance we DID get a repeat of Gustav, Katrina, Rita, whatever... I would seal my tongue and keep thoughts of "excitement" to myself. It's one thing to mouth off those words during quiet periods, when no one's actually in any tangible danger or ostensible threat of dying. It's quite another to openly espouse such passions when people actually ARE going to die.

I think that's why JFV became so infamous; it wasn't his desire for hurricanes that people thought was immoral. It was his lack of tact.
2391. yqt1001
Quoting 2386. MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably won't see a cyclone this beautiful in a while.



Technically it's August so we should be getting a lot of these storms...but the way 2013 has been going, we might not.
Quoting 2387. mitchelace5:


At least I'm not an insensitive prick who loves to see an island get torn to shreds and people getting killed by a monstrous cyclone


Dude, cool it. GeorgiaStormz and Isaac are both good people. I've known them both for awhile.

We don't need this dumb debate again.

They aren't the only ones who should bite their tongue. Your comments don't do anything but make you feel vindicated and superior, which isn't going to do anything to help the victims that are going to be affected by Utor.

Pray, send humanitarian aid, do whatever. But drowning yourself in a pool of self-righteousness isn't going to generate productive discussion.

Let. It. Go.

Jesus...
2393. TXCWC
forecasted gusts for Utor to be around 160mph at landfall...news sadly I do not think will be good in a day or 2 with this Link



Starting in the WPAC with Utor first and rightfully so as this one will be threatening lives very soon. I will say a prayer for everyone in the path of this storm before I go to bed and in church in the morning that all may make it out alive and well after this storm passes by them.

Low resolution FIM-7 current initialization:




And the track forecast:

Quoting 2385. KoritheMan:


Seems okay, except... how do I erase the tropical cyclone points? Is that even possible?

Under layers, you can just deselect everything (except for Google Hybrid/Terrain), or you can just take a screen shot of the WPac on Google Maps.
Quoting 2345. mitchelace5:


You won't be saying that if we had a storm like that in the Atlantic.
Quoting 2347. KoritheMan:


As someone who wants to experience major hurricane landfalls, I agree that comments like this should be kept to oneself.

However, I've known Isaac for awhile now, and I don't think he meant anything by it.

Let it go.

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow (spending time with family and friends), I'm taking a couple day break.
Quoting 2397. wxchaser97:

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow, I'm taking a couple day break.


Take it easy, man. Do what you need to do, and have a good birthday.

This place, and all of its drama will still be here when you get back. :)
Quoting 2397. wxchaser97:

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow, I'm taking a couple day break.
It's pretty obvious you meant that from a meteorological perspective. As tropical weather enthusiasts, we all hope for category 5 cyclones because they're absolutely visually stunning. Nobody wants death and destruction, and telling from the fact that you're a great poster, it's evident that that's not what you meant.

No need for anyone to be sensitive about it.
This storm is the beauty everyone wants to see but sadly this one is going to land and affect land pretty soon,hope the Phillippines are prepare and I hope it doesn`t happen the same of what happen with Bopha.Nights wunderground comunity.
I'm sorry SAR but a few acres of parking are not going to create a heat island. You need tall buildings for a strong heat island effect anyway with radiation bouncing between buildings. On a clear night in your small town the heat would radiate out of the parking lots--and on a windy day be blown away.

What your town is doubtlessly experiencing is climate warming.
2403. yqt1001
Utor is an incredibly small storm, the maximum winds, but very intense winds, are in an incredibly tiny radius. Storm surge shouldn't be too big of a threat either. Luzon is also relatively sparsely populated, and it gets many strong typhoons a year, they are very well prepared. All of the bad Filipino typhoons have been much further south. Not to say it wouldn't be very bad to be in, but the distance it will cover won't be that big.

Winds could get bad if it keeps on intensifying until Megi strength though.
Beautiful, but dangerous.

The inland decay rate with Utor will probably be rather slow if it follows the projected track. From what I can tell, southwestern China is not particularly mountainous.
Quoting 2397. wxchaser97:

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow, I'm taking a couple day break.
Take it easy and I will try and remember to drop a Happy Birthday comment to your blog...And I don't think you are any of those things that certain bloggers on here have said about you tonight. I think all of us that post here need to take a step back, calm down, relax, and not take things personal and attack other bloggers. The mods have been really good about letting things slide lately, but I have a feeling once we have storms in the Atlantic they will strictly be enforcing the rules. Let's learn to respect each other and if you don't have something nice to say don't say it at all or keep it to yourself. And be on alert for trolls never let them get you upset and force you to display that anger on this blog when that happens they win. Do the right thing ignore or just don't pay them no mind and they will go away. I need to tell myself all this and apply it as well.
Quoting 2385. KoritheMan:


Seems okay, except... how do I erase the tropical cyclone points? Is that even possible?


You can erase the cyclone points and use a draw free-form line function.
Quoting 2399. KoritheMan:


Take it easy, man. Do what you need to do, and have a good birthday.

This place, and all of its drama will still be here when you get back. :)
Quoting 2400. MiamiHurricanes09:
It's pretty obvious you meant that from a meteorological perspective. As tropical weather enthusiasts, we all hope for category 5 cyclones because they're absolutely visually stunning. Nobody wants death and destruction, and telling from the fact that you're a great poster, it's evident that that's not what you meant.

No need for anyone to be sensitive about it.

Thanks guys! I'll have a good birthday, hopefully it'll include me getting a new computer as my current one is pretty old. I still love this place no matter what happens.
Quoting 2405. KoritheMan:
The inland decay rate with Utor will probably be rather slow if it follows the projected track. From what I can tell, southwestern China is not particularly mountainous.


Kori, southwest China is very mountainous.
Nite all!!!
I'm praying and hoping that everyone in the Phillipines
Quoting 2388. wxchaser97:

This is the best I can find and hopefully it is what you're looking for. WPac tracking map


I'm praying and hoping that everyone on the island makes it out alive.
Quoting 2409. BaltimoreBrian:


Kori, southwest China is very mountainous.


I took a closer look, and it appears you're right.

Whatever. :P
Somebody tell the EPAC to simmer down it's just popping out storms like there is no tomorrow.



Quoting 2413. KoritheMan:


I took a closer look, and it appears you're right.

Whatever. :P


What are we going to do with you? First calling a typhoon a hurricane. Then not able to work a simple map program. Now identifying mountainous areas as not particularly mountainous!

Has working at Wal-Mart been causing your neurons to explode again?
Quoting 2391. yqt1001:


Technically it's August so we should be getting a lot of these storms...but the way 2013 has been going, we might not.


I wouldn't say that. As yet.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON UTOR (T1311)
15:00 PM JST August 11 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Utor (940 hPa) located at 15.1N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 17.5N 120.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 19.7N 116.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 21.0N 112.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Quoting 2415. BaltimoreBrian:


What are we going to do with you? First calling a typhoon a hurricane. Then not able to work a simple map program. Now identifying mountainous areas as not particularly mountainous!

Has working at Wal-Mart been causing your neurons to explode again?


I lost my sanity through that mechanism long ago. That's probably why I want to be bombarded by hurricanes. ;)



Earlier pic tweeted by James Reynolds

@Typhoonfury
Flash Flood US %u201CAugust 2013%u2033 %u2013 3rd in Colorado This Year Leaves 1 Dead, 3 Missing http://climatestate.com/2013/08/11/flash-flood-us -3rd-august-2013-in-colorado-leaves-1-dead-3-missi ng/
Quoting 2418. KoritheMan:


I lost my sanity long through that mechanism long ago. That's probably why I want to be bombarded by hurricanes. ;)
Kori dance for us now :P

Quoting 2421. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Kori dance for us now :P



Dude... the core of precipitation and strong winds is literally right over me. I just...

OH MY GAWD
Quoting 2408. wxchaser97:

Thanks guys! I'll have a good birthday, hopefully it'll include me getting a new computer as my current one is pretty old. I still love this place no matter what happens.


And we all love you. Don't let anybody tell or make you feel differently.
2427. Walshy
Latest radar image from PAGASA.

2429. BDAwx
I dunno if anyone's posted this link yet, but here's a link to a decent radar near Typhoon Utor.
2430. BDAwx
Quoting 2428. Civicane49:
Latest radar image from PAGASA.



HAHAHA! beat me by seconds!
Henriette remains a tropical storm, with a new burst of convection increasing over the center.

EP, 08, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1530W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 10, 10, 40, 1010, 90, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, M,
2432. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Utor is beautiful. I get why Sar is so sensitive though, there are probably dozens at the minimum in the Philippines who have absolutely no idea, this time tomorrow they will no longer be here. They know Utor is bearing down on them, but they don't know that He will bring death to their door. Over 150,000 people die each day in the world, it's just the nature of our fragile existence. It's sad though, praying for the Philippines tonight. What a beast of a storm.

It's probably more like hundreds of thousands. Once you leave Luzon, you pretty much enter the Twilight Zone when it comes to information or any government assistance. Even those who know what's coming have very little choice about what to do, since most transport is by water, and that either has or will shortly be shut down. It's not uncommon in situations like this to have ferries so overloaded they capsize and kill hundreds.

The Philippines is hard to describe to people who haven't been there. Parts of Metro Manila look like Chicago on a really humid day. Go south to places like Panay and Mindanao and the central Philippine government exists in name only. It's a country of 100 million on thousands of islands, and the Philippine Air Force only has about 45 operable helicopters at any one time. It has a grand total of three C-130 heavy lift transports, the only aircraft capable of carrying relief supplies in large quantities. The Philippine Navy is in even worse shape, with it's newest major vessel being a 50 year old ex- US Coast Guard cutter. Most of the other ships that could be used for rescue and relief are ex-US Navy vessels dating back to to WWII, and they almost never leave anchorage and, when they do, they break down or sink. The typhoon will be bad, but the aftermath will be much worse.
2433. Gearsts
115kts/937mb.

WP, 11, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1248E, 115, 937, XX, 34, NEQ, 145, 125, 125, 135, 1006, 200, 12, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 285, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,
Best 115kt cyclone I've ever seen.

Quoting 2434. MiamiHurricanes09:
115kts/937mb.

WP, 11, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1248E, 115, 937, XX, 34, NEQ, 145, 125, 125, 135, 1006, 200, 12, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 285, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,


Where are you getting this particular directory?
Quoting 2434. MiamiHurricanes09:
115kts/937mb.

WP, 11, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1248E, 115, 937, XX, 34, NEQ, 145, 125, 125, 135, 1006, 200, 12, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 285, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,


Will you please post a link to that? TIA
2438. TXCWC
Appears to be model fight between FIM and GEM models vs. GFS and Euro models right now...tough to go against the reigning model champs but FIM has shown it's worth and should not automatically be discounted

FIM 9


GEM (former cmc)


NAVGEM


GFS
Quoting 2436. KoritheMan:


Where are you getting this particular directory?
Quoting 2437. Civicane49:


Will you please post a link to that? TIA
I download the b-deck file from here. No idea where it originates from.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northwestpacific/2013/wp112013/
Quoting 2439. MiamiHurricanes09:
I download the b-deck file from here. No idea where it originates from.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northwestpacific/2013/wp112013/


I have no idea why I never thought to look there, lol.
Thanks for the situation background there Sar. Doesn't sound good at all. I'm assuming you meant hundreds or thousands not hundreds of thousands for potential fatalities of Utor. Or were you just referencing those who have no idea Utor is coming? Knew it was bad, but I didn't realize the Philippines ability to respond was so horribly lacking.
2442. Thrawst
Typhoon Utor is pushing for Category 5 status.
Don't care what the JTWC says, this is the strongest TC of the year so far. Likely a borderline category 5 storm (thinking 150-155 MPH winds). Raw T numbers suggest 170-175 MPH storm, which means the storm has the actual appearance of a 170-175 MPH storm. It takes some time for winds to catch up, however.




Quoting 2439. MiamiHurricanes09:
I download the b-deck file from here. No idea where it originates from.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northwestpacific/2013/wp112013/
Excellent find.
2444. JLPR2
Quoting 2435. MiamiHurricanes09:
Best 115kt cyclone I've ever seen.



That cant be a cat 3, that has to be a cat 4 pushing at 5 beast.

A beast yes, still, it's beautiful!
Out for the night.

Leave you with the latest ADT estimate. Raw T-number pushing for a 155kt intensity. Meanwhile, the eye continues to warm.

2013AUG11 070000 5.6 953.3 104.6 5.6 6.1 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 5.66 -79.76 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.20 -124.38 COMBO MTSAT2 29.7
Quoting 2444. JLPR2:


That cant be a cat 3, that has to be a cat 4 pushing at 5 beast.

A beast yes, still, it's beautiful!
115kts is category 4. ;) But I agree, it's definitely pushing category 5 intensity from what I can see.

If this were in the Atlantic, no doubt that it would be a category 5 at this point.
2448. JLPR2
Quoting 2446. MiamiHurricanes09:
115kts is category 4. ;) But I agree, it's definitely pushing category 5 intensity from what I can see.

If this were in the Atlantic, no doubt that it would be a category 5 at this point.


Ah! Yes, thought it was in mph, being almost 4am does that. XD
Quoting 2443. TomTaylor:
Don't care what the JTWC says, this is the strongest TC of the year so far. Likely a borderline category 5 storm (thinking 150-155 MPH winds). Raw T numbers suggest 170-175 MPH storm, which means the storm has the actual appearance of a 170-175 MPH storm. It takes some time for winds to catch up, however.




Excellent find.

Look like andrew!!
2450. VR46L
Quoting 2447. bigwes6844:


That big wave might be the one that influences the season ... not development but the size of it could lift the ITCZ north and enhance development of the subsequent waves ...
2451. VR46L
BTW good morning folks!
img src=""> wow!! big storm here
Quoting 2453. Camille33:
img src=""> wow!! big storm here

good video!!
This has to be the best tropical cyclone of the year so far.



Hope the Philippines are prepared for this monster storm.
Quoting 2455. Civicane49:
This has to be the best tropical cyclone of the year so far.



Hope the Philippines are prepared for this monster storm.

did you check my new video!!
2457. VR46L
Quoting 2455. Civicane49:
This has to be the best tropical cyclone of the year so far.



Yes But looks very Deadly !



BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...WELL
SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 153.9W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A 2 DEGREE DIAMETER AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER SINCE THEN. THERE
WAS A BURST OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE CLOUDS BETWEEN 830
AND 930 PM HST. WITH HENRIETTE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF LIFE...I
HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 35 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF
THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.

HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED MOVING ALONG VERY STEADILY TOWARD 265
DEGREES AT 18 KT. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTH OF HENRIETTE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
NEARLY UNCHANGED.

DESPITE THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER HENRIETTE I HAVE
KEPT A FORECAST OF GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
HENRIETTE IS NOT TOO HOSTILE...BUT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM
AND MORE VULNERABLE THAN A LARGER STORM WOULD BE. OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS THE STORM HAS MOVED BY ABOUT 230 NM SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 51004
WITH VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON CONDITIONS AT THE BUOY LOCATION. THE
PRESSURE AT THE BUOY IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
I STILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
KEEP HENRIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TO BE DISSIPATED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 13.6N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 13.3N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 13.0N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 12.8N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 12.8N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
2465. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks..Blogs Coffee is Perked,Have a Great day..
Utor continues to look very beautiful, but poses a very serious threat to the Philippines. Recent satellite and microwave imagery indicate no signs of eyewall replacement cycle yet, so additional strengthening is likely before making landfall in just less than 12 hours. We'll see if this becomes the first Category 5 cyclone of the year.

2467. LargoFl
finally 2 days to dry out here in florida........
Here is the latest eTRaP 24 hour rainfall forecast for Utor:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.1mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 7.4
SAB takes Utor at 6.5/127 kts.

11/0832 UTC 15.4N 124.0E T6.5/6.5 UTOR -- West Pacific
Good morning. We are probably tracking the storm of the year right now.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2013 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 15:23:48 N Lon : 123:50:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.1mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -84.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 132km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.3 degrees

morning
will be back with my analysis and thoughts of EATL tropical wave
Direct hit for the Philippines, right as it reaches peak intensity:



Raw T-numbers remain above 7.0

2013AUG11 100100 6.2 924.5 +2.7 119.8 6.2 6.3 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 2.87 -79.66 EYE 13 IR 51.9 15.36 -123.81 COMBO MTSAT2 30.3
Quoting 2466. Civicane49:
Utor continues to look very beautiful, but poses a very serious threat to the Philippines. Recent satellite and microwave imagery indicate no signs of eyewall replacement cycle yet, so additional strengthening is likely before making landfall in just less than 12 hours. We'll see if this becomes the first Category 5 cyclone of the year.

Good morning everyone.For me is one already.
Quoting 2473. MAweatherboy1:
Direct hit for the Philippines, right as it reaches peak intensity:



The Philippines always have bad luck.
Good morning to all. Without any doubt Utor is the cyclone of the year but I am worried about what will occur in Luzon.

In other theme,will there be a bonifide CV season in 2013?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Direct hit for the Philippines, right as it reaches peak intensity:





A look into the eye of Typhoon Utor


Bigger picture
utor looks like a direct hit hopefully quickly move on through
-80C cloud tops wrapping around the center.


Utor has just jogged west in the last 2 images of this loop.

Link
2482. GatorWX
Morning everyone. Going to be a great summer! Going to Spain with a beautiful girl, staying in a sweet hotel, flight's booked. Feeling good!

Quoting 2477. AussieStorm:


A look into the eye of Typhoon Utor


Bigger picture


Wow, been so quiet in the Atlantic, I haven't been paying much attention. That's an impressive, tight storm!
2483. VR46L
I found this , this morning Maybe it might be of use to those tracking UTOR

DOST Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards
Nothing for the next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Good Sunday morning to all...Atlantic Satellite...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting 2432. sar2401:

It's probably more like hundreds of thousands. Once you leave Luzon, you pretty much enter the Twilight Zone when it comes to information or any government assistance. Even those who know what's coming have very little choice about what to do, since most transport is by water, and that either has or will shortly be shut down. It's not uncommon in situations like this to have ferries so overloaded they capsize and kill hundreds.

The Philippines is hard to describe to people who haven't been there. Parts of Metro Manila look like Chicago on a really humid day. Go south to places like Panay and Mindanao and the central Philippine government exists in name only. It's a country of 100 million on thousands of islands, and the Philippine Air Force only has about 45 operable helicopters at any one time. It has a grand total of three C-130 heavy lift transports, the only aircraft capable of carrying relief supplies in large quantities. The Philippine Navy is in even worse shape, with it's newest major vessel being a 50 year old ex- US Coast Guard cutter. Most of the other ships that could be used for rescue and relief are ex-US Navy vessels dating back to to WWII, and they almost never leave anchorage and, when they do, they break down or sink. The typhoon will be bad, but the aftermath will be much worse.
Fortunately--or as fortunate as can be given the circumstances--Utor looks to be headed for landfall in the least densely populated coastal region in the entire nation of the Philippines. The Aurora province in the northeastern part of the Central Luzon region, and both the Qurino and Nueva Vizcaya provinces in the southern part of the Cagayan Valley region, have densities of fewer than 100 inhabitants per square kilometer. (Compare that to densities of 500-1500 km2 farther south in the provinces surrounding Manila.)

Now, while the Philippines news dissemination infrastructure isn't anywhere close to US standards, it's important to remember that the people there aren't a bunch of third-world primitives cut off from what's going on. For instance, the internet, cable/satellite television, and radio are widely available and widely used.

It's perhaps even more important to remember that the Philippines are among the most typhoon-struck nations on the planet, seeing an average of six to nine landfalling storms each year. It's also seen more super-typhoons--Cat 4 or 5--than any other place on the planet.

Saying all that to say this: while Utor poses a serious threat, and while there will, sadly, probably be many deaths and much destruction, the people know the storm is coming, they know how bad it is, and they know what such things bring. Thus it's not very likely at all to be the widespread apocalyptic tragedy some are fearing.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2489. ncstorm
Hey guys. Sorry for using foul language earlier today. Could you guys forgive me? It won't happen again, promise.