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America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:20 PM GMT on May 13, 2011

America has an Achilles' heel. It lies on a quiet, unpopulated stretch of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, a few miles east of the tiny town of Simmesport. Rising up from the flat, wooded west flood plain of the Mississippi River tower four massive concrete and steel structures that would make a Pharaoh envious--the Army Corps' of Engineers greatest work, the billion-dollar Old River Control Structure. This marvel of modern civil engineering has, for fifty years, done what many thought impossible--impose man's will on the Mississippi River. Mark Twain, who captained a Mississippi river boat for many years, wrote in his book Life on the Mississippi, "ten thousand river commissions, with the mines of the world at their back, cannot tame that lawless stream, cannot curb it or define it, cannot say to it "Go here," or Go there, and make it obey; cannot save a shore which it has sentenced; cannot bar its path with an obstruction which it will not tear down, dance over, and laugh at." The great river wants to carve a new path to the Gulf of Mexico; only the Old River Control Structure keeps it at bay. Failure of the Old River Control Structure would be a severe blow to America's economy, interrupting a huge portion of our imports and exports that ship along the Mississippi River. Closure of the Mississippi to shipping would cost $295 million per day, said Gary LaGrange, executive director of the Port of New Orleans, during a news conference Thursday. The structure will receive its most severe test in its history in the coming two weeks, as the Mississippi River's greatest flood on record crests at a level never before seen.


Figure 1. Two views of the Mississippi River. Left: the meander paths of the Mississippi over time, as published in "Geological Investigation of the Alluvial Valley of the Lower Mississippi River" (Fisk, 1944). Right: The Army Corps of Engineers' view of Mississippi River peak flow rates during a maximum 1-in-500 year "Project Flood" (U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, 1958.) The places outlined in red are where the Corps has built flood control structures capable of diverting a portion of the Mississippi's flow.

A better path to the Gulf
The mighty Mississippi River keeps on rollin' along its final 300 miles to the Gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans--but unwillingly. There is a better way to the Gulf--150 miles shorter, and more than twice as steep. This path lies down the Atchafalaya River, which connects to the Mississippi at a point 45 miles north-northwest of Baton Rouge, 300 river miles from the Gulf of Mexico Delta. Each year, the path down the Atchafalaya grows more inviting. As the massive amounts of sediments the Mississippi carries--scoured from fully 41% of the U.S. land area--reach the Gulf of Mexico, the river's path grows longer. This forces it to dump large amounts of sediment hundreds of miles upstream, in order to build its bed higher and maintain the flow rates needed to flush such huge amounts of sediment to the sea. Thus the difference in elevation between the bed of the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya--currently 17 - 19 feet at typical flow rates of the rivers--grows ever steeper, and the path to the Gulf down the Atchafalaya more inviting. Floods like this year's great flood further increase the slope, as flood waters scour out the bed of the Atchafalaya. Without the Old River Control Structure, the Mississippi River would have carved a new path to the Gulf in the 1970s, leaving Baton Rouge and New Orleans stranded on a salt water estuary, with no fresh water to supply their people and industry.

History of the Old River Control Structure
The Mississippi River has been carving a path to the ocean since the time of the dinosaurs, always seeking the shortest and steepest route possible. Approximately once every 1000 years, the river jumps out of its banks and carves a new path. In John McPhee's fantastic essay, The Control of Nature, we learn:

The Mississippi's main channel of three thousand years ago is now the quiet water of Bayou Teche, which mimics the shape of the Mississippi. Along Bayou Teche, on the high ground of ancient natural levees, are Jeanerette, Breaux Bridge, Broussard, Olivier--arcuate strings of Cajun towns. Eight hundred years before the birth of Christ, the channel was captured from the east. It shifted abruptly and flowed in that direction for about a thousand years. In the second century a.d., it was captured again, and taken south, by the now unprepossessing Bayou Lafourche, which, by the year 1000, was losing its hegemony to the river's present course, through the region that would be known as Plaquemines. By the nineteen-fifties, the Mississippi River had advanced so far past New Orleans and out into the Gulf that it was about to shift again, and its offspring Atchafalaya was ready to receive it.

For the Mississippi to make such a change was completely natural, but in the interval since the last shift Europeans had settled beside the river, a nation had developed, and the nation could not afford nature. The consequences of the Atchafalaya's conquest of the Mississippi would include but not be limited to the demise of Baton Rouge and the virtual destruction of New Orleans. With its fresh water gone, its harbor a silt bar, its economy disconnected from inland commerce, New Orleans would turn into New Gomorrah. Moreover, there were so many big industries between the two cities that at night they made the river glow like a worm. As a result of settlement patterns, this reach of the Mississippi had long been known as "the German coast," and now, with B. F. Goodrich, E. I. du Pont, Union Carbide, Reynolds Metals, Shell, Mobil, Texaco, Exxon, Monsanto, Uniroyal, Georgia-Pacific, Hydrocarbon Industries, Vulcan Materials, Nalco Chemical, Freeport Chemical, Dow Chemical, Allied Chemical, Stauffer Chemical, Hooker Chemicals, Rubicon Chemicals, American Petrofina--with an infrastructural concentration equaled in few other places--it was often called "the American Ruhr." The industries were there because of the river. They had come for its navigational convenience and its fresh water. They would not, and could not, linger beside a tidal creek. For nature to take its course was simply unthinkable. The Sixth World War would do less damage to southern Louisiana. Nature, in this place, had become an enemy of the state.


The Atchafalaya steadily took more and more of the Mississippi's water to the Gulf of Mexico during the 20th Century, until by 1950, it had captured 30% of the great river's flow, becoming the 4th largest river in the U.S. by volume discharge. The Army Corps of Engineers stepped in, and in the late 1950s began construction of a massive structure that resembled a dam with gates to control the amount of water escaping from the Mississippi to the Atchafalaya. This "Low Sill Structure", completed in 1963, consisted of a dam with 11 gates, each 44 feet wide, that could be raised or lowered. The entire structure was 566 feet long. A companion "Overbank Structure" was built on dry land next to the Low Sill Structure, in order to control extreme water flows during major floods. The Overbank Structure had 73 bays, each 44 feet wide, and was 3,356 feet long. The total cost of the two structures: about $300 million.


Figure 2. Aerial view of the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure, looking downstream (south.) Image credit: U.S. Army Corp of Engineers.

The flood of 1973: Old River Control Structure almost fails
For the first ten years after completion of the Old River Control Structure, no major floods tested it, leading the Army Corps to declare, "We harnessed it, straightened it, regularized it, shackled it." But in 1973, a series of heavy snowstorms in the Upper Midwest was followed by exceptionally heavy spring rains in the South. The Mighty Mississippi rose inexorably until the flow rate at the Old River Control Structure reached 2 million cubic feet per second--twenty times the flow of Niagara Falls--and stayed there for more almost three months. Turbulence from the unprecedented flows through the Low Sill Structure scoured the foundation and destroyed a 67-foot-high wing wall that guided water into the structure. Scour holes as big as a football field developed upstream, downstream, and underneath the structure, exposing 50 feet of the 90-foot long steel pilings supporting the structure. The structure began vibrating dangerously, so much so that it would slam open car doors of vehicles parking on top of Highway 15 that crosses over the top. Emergency repairs saved the structure, but it came very close to complete failure.

The flood of 1973 permanently damaged the Low Sill Structure, forcing the Corps to build additional structures to control future great floods. The first of these structures was the Auxilliary Control Structure. This 442-foot long structure, completed in 1986, consisted of six gates, each 62 feet wide, and cost $206 million to build. Joining the mix in the late 1980s was a 192-megawatt hydroelectric power plant, build at a cost of $520 million.


Figure 3. The flow of water in the Mississippi River as of Friday, May 13 (red line) has exceeded 2 million cubic feet per second, and was approaching the all-time record (dashed blue line.) Image credit: USACE.

The Old River Control Structure's greatest test: the flood of 2011
Flow rates of the Mississippi at the latitude of the Old River Control Structure are expected to exceed the all-time record on Saturday, giving the Old River Control Structure its greatest test since the flood of 1973. Since there are now four structures to control the flooding instead of just the two that existed in 1973, the Old River Control Structure should be able to handle a much greater flow of water. The flood of 2011 is not as large as the maximum 1-in-500 year "Project Flood" that the Old River Control Structure was designed to handle, and the Army Corps of Engineers has expressed confidence that the structure can handle the current flood. However, the system has never been tested in these conditions before. This is a dangerous flood, and very high water levels are expected for many weeks. Unexpected flaws in the design of the Old River Control Structure may give it a few percent chance of failure under these sorts of unprecedented conditions. While I expect that the Old River Control Structure will indeed hold back the great flood of 2011, we also need to be concerned about the levees on either side of the structure. The levees near Old River Control Structure range from 71 - 74 feet high, and the flood is expected to crest at 65.5 feet on May 22. This is, in theory, plenty of levee to handle such a flood, but levees subjected to long periods of pressure can and do fail sometimes, and the Corps has to be super-careful to keep all the levees under constant surveillance and quickly move to repair sand boils or piping problems that might develop. Any failure of a levee on the west bank of the Mississippi could allow the river to jump its banks permanently and carve a new path to the Gulf of Mexico. I'll say more about the potential costs of such an event in a future post.

According to the latest information from the Army Corps the Old River Control Structure is currently passing 624,000 cubic feet per second of water, which is 1% beyond what is intended in a maximum "Project Flood." The flow rate of the Mississippi at New Orleans is at 100% of the maximum Project Flood. These are dangerous flow rates, and makes it likely that the Army Corps will open the Morganza Spillway in the next few days to take pressure off of the Old River Control Structure and New Orleans levees. Neither can be allowed to fail. In theory, the Old River Control Structure can be operated at 140% of a Project Flood, since there are now four control structures instead of just the two that existed in 1973 (flows rates of 300,000 cfs, 350,000 cfs, 320,000 cfs, and 170,000 cfs can go through the Low Sill, Auxiliary, Overbank, and Hydroelectric structures, respectively.) Apparently, the Corps is considering this, as evidenced by their Scenario #3 images they posted yesterday. This is a risky proposition, as the Old River Control Structure would be pushed to its absolute limit in this scenario. It would seem a lower risk proposition to open the Morganza spillway to divert up to 600,000 cfs, unless there are concerns the Corps has they aren't telling us about.


Figure 4. Kayaking, anyone? The stilling basin downstream of the Low Sill Structure of the Old River Control Structure, as seen during major flood stage of the Mississippi River on May 10, 2011. The flow rate is 2 - 3 times that of Niagara Falls here. Video by Lee Alessi.

Recommended reading
John McPhee's fantastic essay, The Control of Nature

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. xcool
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Despised by others ;)

That is Freekin Awesome B^)

Oh Hon, we need a couple of motor boats and some nets for the pond out back

Quoting goosegirl1:


My dad used to say carp taste like what they eat. Of course, this led to a young child asking "what do they eat?" His answer was "mud", but in retrospect... I'm sure that wasn't really what he meant ;)


I have never eaten carp but would be willing to try it. I am told that part of the problem is the way that North Americans are used to preparing fish is not appropriate for carp. Eastern Europeans tend to use it in hearty soups mixes where it is cooked long enough that the small bones break down and can be eaten. Asians have special ways of fixing it and I am told that there are those in the African-American community that have family recipes are likely based on practices from their land of origin. Googled carp recipes and they are myriad. The main concern with carp is that they are a long lived bottom feeder which will also opportunistically eat smaller fish. Therefore they tend to bioaccumulate any toxins in the stream. Therefore point of origin is very important. (may indeed affect flavor)
Quoting seflagamma:
rolf, Aqua, my Dad tells me a lot of folks eat carp.. but we don't they are really bony.

#497 that is a great photo of a jumping carp!

Our local canals lost all our carp last winter to the cold temps....I guess we had tropical carp.. that were all put in our canals to eat grasses that are not suppose to grow here but do....nananananan whatever....
Someone had that bright idea for our pond out back, killed off practically everything else in it.
gamma- that photo of the jumping carp is from the Morganza spillway today!

Rainman- I will NOT eat the fish out of the pond. You're just using that as an excuse to buy a motorboat.
Oh yes, Carp are eaten by many...in some parts of Ms they are called buffalo carp. My grandpa always said, when there were no more fish to be eaten, then you'd have buffalo carp, gar, or the lowly scavenger mud-cat. I personally have never eaten any of these, but grandpa did. I can remember him saying, the more ya chew carp, the bigger it gets, kinda like cotton in your mouth......now Aqua, are ya still hungry for some fish??? LOL..
sigh...ok, maybe I'd best start craving crawfish instead. Or are they gonna get wiped out from the flood?
Quoting aquak9:
sigh...ok, maybe I'd best start craving crawfish instead. Or are they gonna get wiped out from the flood?


Oh yeah, they will thrive, I'd think....along with the carp,gar and lowly mud-cat....you can just take your choice...lol...and if ya put crawfish boil seasoning in a pot with anything, it will taste like crawfish, too....
2011 Pacific hurricane season about to begin.


Forecasts call for a more active season than last year's
The first named storm will be Adrian
Quoting aquak9:
sigh...ok, maybe I'd best start craving crawfish instead. Or are they gonna get wiped out from the flood?


Don't know about crawfish, as they are freshwater but with all the turbitity and turbulance, not to mention silt, they coud very well have problems. I have heard that all the fresh water into the oyster beds of the GOM will kill off a lot of them, right on the heels of last year's oil spill. This is not a good year (or two) for the fishermen, unless they start fishing for all those carp.
512. beell
Quoting aquak9:
sigh...ok, maybe I'd best start craving crawfish instead. Or are they gonna get wiped out from the flood?


Crawfish do worse in drought years. They like water. Commercially farmed or caught wild.

About 90% of Louisiana's crawfish harvest is pond-raised. Plenty for everybody!
aqua- thanks for the tipoff on the carp pics! - amazing..makes me wonder how many gators got bottled up being sucked towards the spillway?..lol

Quoting BahaHurican:
Seems the plan to open a few gates at a time at Morganza makes a lot of sense. It means the flooding happens slower, which to my mind suggests that the impact of the water flow as it moves over the flood plain is likely to be less damaging. Also the slower flood rate gives people / animals more time to get away, I'd think.

It may sound a bit callous, but it's a good thing there IS an alternative in the first place. However, I'm sure that doesn't assauge the feelings of those who get flooded.....

Also watching the increased activity across the SE US and CAR with interest. It seems so quiet in the tropical ATL so far.... I keep wondering if it's the "calm before the storm".... lol


Apparently, that one gate is in the most "scour resistant" area of the Morganza floodgates. That was a big problem in 1973 at the Old River Control Structure (since upgraded as Dr. Masters points out in the blog post), so they are also watching things carefully now at the structure itself. If there is going to be a scouring "issue" best that it start out small.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:



I have never eaten carp but would be willing to try it. I am told that part of the problem is the way that North Americans are used to preparing fish is not appropriate for carp. Eastern Europeans tend to use it in hearty soups mixes where it is cooked long enough that the small bones break down and can be eaten. Asians have special ways of fixing it and I am told that there are those in the African-American community that have family recipes are likely based on practices from their land of origin. Googled carp recipes and they are myriad. The main concern with carp is that they are a long lived bottom feeder which will also opportunistically eat smaller fish. Therefore they tend to bioaccumulate any toxins in the stream. Therefore point of origin is very important. (may indeed affect flavor)


I got news for ya.
If you have ever eaten a Micky Ds fillet of fish sandwich you have eaten CARP.
Quoting aquak9:
sigh...ok, maybe I'd best start craving crawfish instead. Or are they gonna get wiped out from the flood?


Gary Grows of nearby Fordoche recalled as a teenager ferrying hay to several deer trapped on a ridge surrounded by floodwaters in 1973.

But he said not all animals were harmed by the flooding, noting that there was a bumper crop of crawfish that year.

“You could go out there with a bucket and pick up crawfish like pecans off the ground,” he said.
Quoting spathy:


I got news for ya.
If you have ever eaten a Micky Ds fillet of fish sandwich you have eaten CARP.


no no no!!! go ask JoeAlaska. Mickie d's uses good alaskan fish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filet-O-Fish
soooo does the epac season get started officially at midnight EST or PST???
guess I'll just stick to frozen pizza. :(
520. beell
Quoting aquak9:
guess I'll just stick to frozen pizza. :(


could be worse.

hahaha, hi beell

we saw history today.

go in peace ya'll- g'nite
Quoting stillwaiting:
soooo does the epac season get started officially at midnight EST or PST???

I would say PST
Quoting aquak9:


no no no!!! go ask JoeAlaska. Mickie d's uses good alaskan fish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filet-O-Fish
Didnt they say back in the 70s "IT" was Catfish?
Catfish is Carp!
Or was that just marketing to us in the south?

If interested, check out my blog--I just made a brand new post about this upcoming hurricane season. Be free to check it out and comment if you'd like.
Yup its Hoki not catfish in that there sandwich.
Well heck!
Now I dont know if I like catfish or not.
I thought I had eaten it many times.
Nope!
Now I can only say I like Hoki.
For some reason I dont feel as Southern as I used to.
Quoting Levi32:
A decent disturbance in the African Easterly Jet is currently along ~4W, but likely not well-enough defined to be analyzed as a tropical wave by the NHC.

Levi

Do you have a LINK to this loop??
I thought I might use this brief lull for a quick update on our favorite ongoing but often-forgotten nuclear catastrophe:

--TEPCO announced today that it's abandoning plans to flood and cool No. 1 reactor's containment building, since it's been verified that fuel has melted down and through the pressure veesel, creating holes through which any injected water, now highly radioactive, simply escapes. But there's no talk of an alternate plan, and with radiation levels so high that workers can only spend two or three minutes in the building each year, it's not at all certain what options are left beyond entombment. (Link)

--It's been determined that meltdown occurred at the No. 1 reactor 16 hours after the earthquake. (You know, back when TEPCO and the Japanese government were telling us repeatedly that there was little danger of meltdown, that the situation was under control, that the worst had passed, that the explosion was simply a spectacular but harmless release of pent-up gases.)

--The Japanese government has been silently widening the no-go zone around the plant, adding towns and villages to the list. Today residents of Kawamata and Iitate were told to leave. (Link)

--Data suggests that it wasn't the tsunami after all that caused a loss of power that damaged the cooling systems, but rather the earthquake itself. (Link) (IOW, a rare super-tsunami isn't required to initiate a meltdown; just a quake of sufficient size, depth, and proximity.)

It'll be, er, interesting to see what's found once workers can get into reactors 2 and 3. There are strong hints that those two may be as bad off, if not worse, than unit 1.
528. DDR
Tropical wave @ 40w and possibly 2 over Africa,nice!
In my 64 years on this planet, I have managed to gather a small amount of knowledge. Albeit I must admit, some of this information was acquired not by education, but rather by experience known as "the hard way".

The latest TEPCO information reminded me of one of those salient facts. In this age of instant communications we would do well to remember that the "first" information we receive may not be, what it appears to be.



530. IKE
Cool few days ahead....

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Quoting IKE:
Cool few days ahead....

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.


Good Morning Ike, We had one hell of a storm here last night at 4 am. Constant lightning and thunder boomming and lots of wind. I had a rain rate of 9in per hour if it rained that hard that long. got 1.08 in the gauge from that storm. Great Storm, havent seen one like that in years.
532. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Good Morning Ike, We had one hell of a storm here last night at 4 am. Constant lightning and thunder boomming and lots of wind. I had a rain rate of 9in per hour if it rained that hard that long. got 1.08 in the gauge from that storm. Great Storm, havent seen one like that in years.
Good morning. At least you got some beneficial rains.

................................................. .................................................. ..............

5 day QPF....


533. IKE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- --------------
ADRIAN AY- DREE UHN MAX MAKS
BEATRIZ BEE- A TRIZ NORMA NOOR- MUH
CALVIN KAL- VIN OTIS OH- TIS
DORA DOR- RUH PILAR PEE LAHR-
EUGENE YOU- JEEN RAMON RAH MOHN-
FERNANDA FER NAN- DAH SELMA SELL- MAH
GREG GREG TODD TAHD
HILARY HIH- LUH REE VERONICA VUR RAHN- IH KUH
IRWIN UR- WIN WILEY WY- LEE
JOVA HO- VAH XINA ZEE- NAH
KENNETH KEH- NETH YORK YORK
LIDIA LIH- DYAH ZELDA ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS
PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE
TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 4 AM...10
AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES
...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS PRODUCT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE
THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
534. IKE

0.87"

(struts around like proud peacock)
It's been raining here in Naples--mostly heavily--for the past hour-and-a-half. Given that we've received less than 1/5 of an inch to-date this month, and less than 1/5 for the entire month of April before, we've easily seen more rain this morning than in the past 50 days. In fact, March only saw a bit over an inch, so we may have beaten that as well.

Nice to see on a Sunday morning...
537. flsky
Wow - where do you live?
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- --------------
ADRIAN AY- DREE UHN MAX MAKS
BEATRIZ BEE- A TRIZ NORMA NOOR- MUH
CALVIN KAL- VIN OTIS OH- TIS
DORA DOR- RUH PILAR PEE LAHR-
EUGENE YOU- JEEN RAMON RAH MOHN-
FERNANDA FER NAN- DAH SELMA SELL- MAH
GREG GREG TODD TAHD
HILARY HIH- LUH REE VERONICA VUR RAHN- IH KUH
IRWIN UR- WIN WILEY WY- LEE
JOVA HO- VAH XINA ZEE- NAH
KENNETH KEH- NETH YORK YORK
LIDIA LIH- DYAH ZELDA ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS
PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT. AFTER THE CHANGE
TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 4 AM...10
AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES
...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS PRODUCT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE
THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Ike, You are so right about needing the rain.Even after a wet jan,feb and still here 10inches above the yearly avg. we were still under a drought.Only to be in the 80's next few days. Thats great. Have a great day.
good sunday morning all

nea- we had some really deep loud thunder here, rattled the windows, booming and fading slowly. SO COOL. Man I miss that.

Ok..christmas wish list so far: a plasma cutter, and I think I'll add a dosimeter to that list, too. Maybe I won't be planting spinach again. Gonna miss the bananas...
541. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
0.87"

(struts around like proud peacock)
I was watching the golf tournament yesterday thinking of the rain you were getting.

Problem is...you may get none the next 10+ days.
542. flsky
My last post was supposed to be in response to severstorm's posting. Just wanted to know where he/she lives. ( I wish this sight worked better for me, sheesh)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I thought I might use this brief lull for a quick update on our favorite ongoing but often-forgotten nuclear catastrophe:

--TEPCO announced today that it's abandoning plans to flood and cool No. 1 reactor's containment building, since it's been verified that fuel has melted down and through the pressure veesel, creating holes through which any injected water, now highly radioactive, simply escapes. But there's no talk of an alternate plan, and with radiation levels so high that workers can only spend two or three minutes in the building each year, it's not at all certain what options are left beyond entombment. (Link)

--It's been determined that meltdown occurred at the No. 1 reactor 16 hours after the earthquake. (You know, back when TEPCO and the Japanese government were telling us repeatedly that there was little danger of meltdown, that the situation was under control, that the worst had passed, that the explosion was simply a spectacular but harmless release of pent-up gases.)

--The Japanese government has been silently widening the no-go zone around the plant, adding towns and villages to the list. Today residents of Kawamata and Iitate were told to leave. (Link)

--Data suggests that it wasn't the tsunami after all that caused a loss of power that damaged the cooling systems, but rather the earthquake itself. (Link) (IOW, a rare super-tsunami isn't required to initiate a meltdown; just a quake of sufficient size, depth, and proximity.)

It'll be, er, interesting to see what's found once workers can get into reactors 2 and 3. There are strong hints that those two may be as bad off, if not worse, than unit 1.


Sadly, this shouldn't surprise anyone. They want us to forget, so that they can back to the business of clesning up the mess with no outside interference.
544. flsky
Quoting RTLSNK:
In my 64 years on this planet, I have managed to gather a small amount of knowledge. Albeit I must admit, some of this information was acquired not by education, but rather by experience known as "the hard way".

The latest TEPCO information reminded me of one of those salient facts. In this age of instant communications we would do well to remember that the "first" information we receive may not be, what it appears to be.




A true sage....
545. flsky
Just back from AL - bad stuff there. On call for LA. Any up-to-date info? Pat?
Problem is...you may get none the next 10+ days.

There's the Ike I know and love...
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's been raining here in Naples--mostly heavily--for the past hour-and-a-half. Given that we've received less than 1/5 of an inch to-date this month, and less than 1/5 for the entire month of April before, we've easily seen more rain this morning than in the past 50 days. In fact, March only saw a bit over an inch, so we may have beaten that as well.

Nice to see on a Sunday morning...


Just read that my home stsate, WV had their rainiest April ever. We had over 6 inches of rain, and the state average was 7.4. Sorry NOLA, I live on the Atlantic side but the rest went down the Ohio :(

If I were part of the Japanese government, I could claim some of the credit and say I was attempting to send the water to Texas through a major engineering progect, but it got diverted somehow... don't know the details...
548. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Problem is...you may get none the next 10+ days.

There's the Ike I know and love...
LOL....it's true.

I also think the odds of a pre-season ATL named system are around 5%...maybe less.

I think we start on June 1st at 0-0-0. Arlene where are you?
Quoting flsky:
My last post was supposed to be in response to severstorm's posting. Just wanted to know where he/she lives. ( I wish this sight worked better for me, sheesh)

flsky, I live in Zephyrhills fl about 40 miles northeast of Tampa, And yes what a storm last night. No warning on that storm just a good old fashion storm.


Still, if the Mississippi rises two more feet, to 18.5 feet, the Coast Guard could suspend all boat traffic on the river, in an unusual move that could cost the country nearly $300million a day in lost revenue, and even more than that per day after the first four, reports CBS News.

The Mississippi is one of the country's most important waterways, and the port of New Orleans is one of the busiest, with 12,000 ships carrying 500-million tons of cargo annually and 700,000 cruise passengers.


Link
Good morning. It looks like zero tropical development on both, the EPAC and Atlantic for the rest of May,as the models are not bullish at this time.
c'mon, Ike. You know as well as I do, ain't gonna be no named pre-Season™ storm. Heck, might be into mid-July a'fore we see a name.

Didja get your yard mowed yesterday before the rain?
Quoting IKE:
Cool few days ahead....

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.



I am NOT putting the top and doors back on the Jeep!
NO!!!
NOT gonna do it!
:(
554. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
c'mon, Ike. You know as well as I do, ain't gonna be no named pre-Season™ storm. Heck, might be into mid-July a'fore we see a name.

Didja get your yard mowed yesterday before the rain?
I mowed the front after the rains moved through. Fixing to do the back and burn for a couple of hours. Weather is too nice to stay inside:)

You could be right about a mid-July start with this constant pattern. Need a pattern change.

Quoting PcolaDan:


I am NOT putting the top and doors back on the Jeep!
NO!!!
NOT gonna do it!
:(
My heater in my house just kicked on...
Quoting aquak9:
0.87"

(struts around like proud peacock)


I got you beat.. after almost 5 months with out rainfall...

we got 2 1/2" in my guage last night!!!!
WhoooHoooo!

technically since I have the "rainman" precise weather guage it was 2.65" of rain!

My giant guage that just gets "round about" measurements got 2 1/2"

I cannot believe my neighborhood got that much rain in a few hours...Hope most of SE Fla got it also because we were about to go up in flames!

and more rain moving in this morning from the west!

Loved reading back from conversations last night...
Aqua, I don't eat any fish from our canals either! That is urban drain water in there and the fish have 3 eyes!
and yes, Rainman just wants to buy a boat! LOL

Good morning my friends!
Got to find out what is going on in Louisiana.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I am NOT putting the top and doors back on the Jeep!
NO!!!
NOT gonna do it!
:(

C'mon you have to have a heater in that jeep! 70.2 here (NICE)
My heater in my house just kicked on..

WOW. I'm in a tshirt, shorts and barefoot, outside.

Hi gamma! ain't it nice to know exactly what fell on YOUR home, and not at some airport x miles away?

Ya'll with the CoCoRAHS gauges from RainmanWeather- really wish you'd sign up for CoCoRAHS online. That data is used by NOAA, as well as local, state and federal authorities.

Anyway gamma, glad ya'll got some good water.
558. IKE
57.4 was my morning low.

TWC calling for near record lows here tomorrow night w/a low 48 w/NW winds @ 10-20 mph.
Quoting aquak9:
Saw a post here yesterday, said that neither CNN or TWC was carrying coverage of the Morganza opening. What nitwits are running these stations? Do they not realize the impacts this will have on the entire country?

Still, if the Mississippi rises two more feet, to 18.5 feet, the Coast Guard could suspend all boat traffic on the river, in an unusual move that could cost the country nearly $300million a day in lost revenue, and even more than that per day after the first four, reports CBS News.

The Mississippi is one of the country's most important waterways, and the port of New Orleans is one of the busiest, with 12,000 ships carrying 500-million tons of cargo annually and 700,000 cruise passengers.


Link


Both those stations had live coverage of the opening. They just did not cut over to it until just before they lifted the gate. Had my TV on split screen and thats the 2 channels I had on.
Quoting IKE:
Cool few days ahead....

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.



Looks like that front will make it down to my neck of the woods...one last few cooler days.


Quoting emcf30:


Both those stations had live coverage of the opening. They just did not cut over to it until just before they lifted the gate. Had my TV on split screen and thats the 2 channels I had on.


I stand corrected, thanks. Will modify the post.

still I think this oughtta be bigger news.
Quoting IKE:
57.4 was my morning low.

TWC calling for near record lows here tomorrow night w/a low 48 w/NW winds @ 10-20 mph.


Oh my goodness, we have not been below 70 I don't think since early March!

we are upper 70's now and will get upper 80's this afternoon.

Quoting IKE:

I mowed the front after the rains moved through. Fixing to do the back and burn for a couple of hours. Weather is too nice to stay inside:)

You could be right about a mid-July start with this constant pattern. Need a pattern change.

My heater in my house just kicked on...
...thinking about doing a bit of burning myself today,as todays my day off, lol.....nice line of wx moved thru swfl last night around 5am,pickd up a quick. 25 in a hr...
Quoting aquak9:


I stand corrected, thanks. Will modify the post.

still I think this oughtta be bigger news.


When Chick posted that there was nothing on. They has just got done with the press conference. Alot of the UStreams were not working at that time. Think they were relocating. But as you said. This is major news. My 2 youngest teenagers were pissed that I made they come in a watch it. They will understand as time goes on in their studies at school. I am sure this will be one for the books.
Quoting severstorm:

C'mon you have to have a heater in that jeep! 70.2 here (NICE)


Actually, no I don't. Last month when I changed out the water pump, the heater connection broke when I tried to get the hose off, so I bypassed it. Didn't think I would need it until October. Plenty of time to fix it. Who knew? :|
Quoting emcf30:


When Chick posted that there was nothing on. They has just got done with the press conference. Alot of the UStreams were not working at that time. Think they were relocating. But as you said. This is major news. My 2 youngest teenagers were pissed that I made they come in a watch it. They will understand as time goes on in their studies at school. I am sure this will be one for the books.
I cant believe the nonchalant attitude most of the people I've talked to around here have about this event.

The local media here have been covering this nonstop so I dont blame them. I dont know...
Quoting tkeith:
I cant believe the nonchalant attitude most of the people I've talked to around here have about this event.

The local media here have been covering this nonstop so I dont blame them. I dont know...


I just don't think people realize the implication this situation has on peoples lives because they think they are not directly affected. Well guess what. They will find out in a hurry if the waterway gets shut down for whatever reason and the flow of goods and products come to a halt. What a dominoes effect that would be. then they would wake up and smell the roses.
Quoting spathy:


I got news for ya.
If you have ever eaten a Micky Ds fillet of fish sandwich you have eaten CARP.
lol
Complete Update





570. mnsky
Interestinglabels=1 labels=1 labels=1:)
Quoting aquak9:
0.87"

(struts around like proud peacock)
1.10 inches just yesterday alone...struts around like macho banni rooster.
567- emcf- very well put. Folks here in NE Fla, are clueless...they think it might be a redneck trailer park in backwoods Louisiana seeing about a foot of water. Definitely not newsworthy.

as I work with mostly women, they are more interested in the sales at Pottery Barn. So sad.
Sigh...Macho Banni Rooster beats peacock.
Quoting emcf30:


I just don't think people realize the implication this situation has on peoples lives because they think they are not directly affected. Well guess what. They will find out in a hurry if the waterway gets shut down for whatever reason and the flow of goods and products come to a halt. What a dominoes effect that would be. then they would wake up and smell the roses.


Much, if not most, of the Midwest's gas and diesel comes up the Mississippi.

Ponder that for a while.
Quoting aquak9:
Sigh...Macho Banni Rooster beats peacock.
Special for you Aqua...:)Link
Quoting cajunkid:


Much, if not most, of the Midwest's gas and diesel comes up the Mississippi.

Ponder that for a while.


Thats scary
Yesterday.93 fell in San Juan,apart from hail and a small tornado that occured.Today looks like a repeat as the trough still lingers nearby.NWS in San Juan just issued a flash flood watch for almost all of Puerto Rico until 8 PM AST.



Link
Vicksburg, MS just went over 56'. Another new record broken from 1927
579. Jax82
it was nice to hear the thunder yesterday, and to see some harmless heat lightning streaking through the sky. Next 5 days look perfect.
Quoting seflagamma:


I got you beat.. after almost 5 months with out rainfall...

we got 2 1/2" in my guage last night!!!!
WhoooHoooo!

technically since I have the "rainman" precise weather guage it was 2.65" of rain!

My giant guage that just gets "round about" measurements got 2 1/2"

I cannot believe my neighborhood got that much rain in a few hours...Hope most of SE Fla got it also because we were about to go up in flames!

and more rain moving in this morning from the west!

Loved reading back from conversations last night...
Aqua, I don't eat any fish from our canals either! That is urban drain water in there and the fish have 3 eyes!
and yes, Rainman just wants to buy a boat! LOL

Good morning my friends!
Got to find out what is going on in Louisiana.


Ya there was even a very strong thunderstorm up in Wellington which my dad, my friend and I chased--very heavy rain that lingered around for hours and at one point winds were gusting up to about 40 MPH.
Moving on to the latest developments in Japan's ongoing nuclear crisis highly radioactive substances were detected in parts of Tokyo. Japan's Asahi Shimbun reports about 3,200 and nearly 2-thousand becquerels of radioactive cesium per kilogram were found in the soil of Tokyo districts of Koto and Chiyoda, respectively, from testing conducted between April 10th and the 20th. This amount is higher than what was found in the prefectures near the Fukushima plant and experts warn that other areas may be subject to radiation contamination as clusters of clouds containing radioactive material remain in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the plant's main operator, TEPCO, says that over 3-thousand tons of contaminated water has been found in the basement of the No. 1 reactor, causing a delay in Japan's latest approach to cool down the reactors.
The area affected by wildfires raging in Siberia has expanded by 560 hectares to 1,500 hectares in the past twenty-four hours, the Emergencies Ministry reported on Sunday. "There are 106 hotbeds of wildfires on a total area of 1,492.6 hectares in Siberia," the ministry said. Firefighters have localized 52 wildfires on an area of 988 hectares in the past twenty-four hours. The cause of forest fires is the activity of local residents, the ministry said. "Overall, 2,300 people and 534 pieces of equipment have been involved in the fire-fighting effort in the past twenty-four hours," the ministry said. A large number of wildfires have also been registered in the Trans-Baikal Territory, the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republics of Tyva and Buryatia, the Tomsk and Irkutsk Regions, the ministry said. Wildfires devastated a number of regions in central Russia last summer, killing 62 people and leaving thousands homeless.
Quoting Skyepony:
Moving on to the latest developments in Japan's ongoing nuclear crisis highly radioactive substances were detected in parts of Tokyo. Japan's Asahi Shimbun reports about 3,200 and nearly 2-thousand becquerels of radioactive cesium per kilogram were found in the soil of Tokyo districts of Koto and Chiyoda, respectively, from testing conducted between April 10th and the 20th. This amount is higher than what was found in the prefectures near the Fukushima plant and experts warn that other areas may be subject to radiation contamination as clusters of clouds containing radioactive material remain in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the plant's main operator, TEPCO, says that over 3-thousand tons of contaminated water has been found in the basement of the No. 1 reactor, causing a delay in Japan's latest approach to cool down the reactors.

Skye, did you seem my comment #527?

--TEPCO announced today that it's abandoning plans to flood and cool No. 1 reactor's containment building, since it's been verified that fuel has melted down and through the pressure vessel, creating holes through which any injected water, now highly radioactive, simply escapes. There is no alternate plan in place, and with radiation levels so high that workers can only spend two or three minutes in the building each year, it's not at all certain what options are left beyond entombment.

--It's been determined that meltdown occurred at the No. 1 reactor 16 hours after the earthquake. (That is, back when TEPCO and the Japanese government were telling us repeatedly that there was little danger of meltdown, that the situation was under control, that the worst had passed, that the explosion was simply a spectacular but harmless release of pent-up gases.)

--The Japanese government has been silently widening the no-go zone around the plant, incrementally adding towns and villages to the list. Residents of Kawamata and Iitate are being forced to leave today.

--Data suggests that it wasn't the tsunami after all that caused a loss of power that damaged the cooling systems leading to at least one meltdown (and as many as three), but rather the earthquake itself. (IOW, a rare super-tsunami isn't required to initiate a meltdown; just a quake of sufficient size, depth, and proximity.)
Thanks for posting this!! : )
Quoting Skyepony:
Awesome weather we are having!! Making it a beautiful Sunday!
Quoting Skyepony:
Quoting IKE:
57.4 was my morning low.

TWC calling for near record lows here tomorrow night w/a low 48 w/NW winds @ 10-20 mph.
First Tropical Wave noted on surface analysis chart:


588. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
First Tropical Wave noted on surface analysis chart:




yayyyyyyyyyyy!!!
Vicksburg waterline

Waterline approaching record in Vicksburg. Taken Friday 13th, 4:30 pm.

Several weeks ago, you saw many more white lines of flood stages below this white line on the seawall. The water has risen many, many feet.
How high's the water, momma?

"How high's the water, momma?" Way past five feet high and rising!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
First Tropical Wave noted on surface analysis chart:


On the first day of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Maybe we will do that some day. South Florida got a nice drenching....
Quoting SLU:


yayyyyyyyyyyy!!!
Slu and MoonlightCowboy and first official T-wave... Another sign the season is close at hand.
Looks like Canada is dealing with epic flood too..

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, May 15 (UPI) -- A deliberate weekend breach of a dike in the Canadian province of Manitoba won't flood as much land as first thought, officials said.

The reluctant move to breach a large dike along the Assiniboine River near Portage la Prairie was made after several days of postponements, the Winnipeg Free Press reported.

Emergency Measures Minister Steve Ashton told reporters surveyors had determined the controlled flow would flood 70 square miles instead of the original estimate of nearly 90 miles.

Officials said the move would affect about 150 homes, but if nothing was done, at least 850 homes would have been flooded.

The seasonal spring thaw and rain flooding in southern Manitoba has been called the worst in about 300 years and property and agricultural losses are projected to surpass $1 billion, provincial leaders said last week.

Meanwhile in Winnipeg, the confluence of the Red and Assiniboine Rivers, city police said one man drowned Saturday and a second had to be rescued from the Assiniboine when their canoe capsized in fast-flowing water.

Neither was wearing a flotation vest, police said.

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2011/05/15/ Manitoba-breach-flooding-downsized/UPI-97641305470 881/#ixzz1MR83ES3T



Beachfoxx~ Your welcome:)

Neo~ I did see that. It's been pretty disturbing the last few days overall.


Earthquake in Spain
Situation Update No. 16
On 15.05.2011 at 03:24 GMT+2

Around 1,600 of the buildings in Lorca (Murcia) that have been inspected so far following the earthquake which devastated the town and killed nine people on Wednesday evening have been declared uninhabitable. About six in 10 homes in Lorca are safe to live in, even though most will need repairs. Of those declared unsafe, about 1,150 have been marked with a yellow sign to show that the occupants may enter for a few minutes to collect their belongings, whilst the rest have red signs on the doors warning the owners not to enter under any circumstances. Regional president Ramón Luis Valcárcel has called for all those whose properties have been marked as safe to return home as quickly as possible in order to avoid the 'refugee camps' in the town from becoming overloaded. But many are still not happy to go back into their properties, as they have seen cracks in the walls and fear there may be undiscovered structural damage. Defence minister Carme Chacón says 'there is still a lot to do' and that at present, all efforts are being centred on supplying food and providing shelter for those affected. Over 600 members of the military are helping out, as are the Red Cross. Five marquees have been set up to house those who have lost their homes, and a further four camps have been installed in the open air. A total of 17 people remain in Murcia's La Arrixaca hospital, but the three most seriously injured are said to be out of danger. Lorca's Rafael Méndez hospital is not said to have any structural damage, and the accident and emergency and dialysis departments are due to be reopened on Monday. Very few grocery stores or supermarkets are open, and those that are see queues leading out of the door throughout the day.
Fukushima
Situation Update No. 111
On 15.05.2011 at 15:29 GMT+2

My quick summary~ Substantial damage to the fuel in 2 & 3..lack of pressure in those maybe because they melted through the floor like 1. 4's hydrogen explosion was due to 3's leak of hydrogen into many floors of 4.
597. P451
Tough decision opening these spillways up.

Link
Quoting hydrus:
Slu and MoonlightCowboy and first official T-wave... Another sign the season is close at hand.


Got to add CMC at 108hrs..

599. JRRP


600. JRRP
601. txjac
Thanks for all the great, infomative updates Skye.

Good almost afternoon to all
602. JRRP

possible second wave south of CV ??
EPA Halts Heightened Monitoring of Fukushima Fallout (May 9th)...some highlights

The 50-year old RadNet monitoring network has wide geographic gaps and many inoperable monitors. EPA reversed plans to place deployable monitors to fill gaps up and down the West Coast. EPA is also considering withdrawing the few added monitors it had placed in Hawaii, Alaska, Guam and Spain;

Elevated levels of Iodine-131, Cesium-134, Cesium-137, and Strontium-90, radionuclides emitted from the Fukushima nuclear complex, are showing up in milk. In the case of the I-131, the levels exceed EPA’s permissible limits for drinking water under the Safe Drinking Water Act (EPA has no separate standards for milk.) There is no safe or non-harmful level of radiation for human consumption; and

Radioactive iodine levels in rainwater have been found, and continue to be found, significantly exceeding the EPA’s own Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 3piC/L for drinking water. EPA downplays the public health risk by noting that the “MCL for iodine-131 was calculated based on long-term chronic exposures over the course of a lifetime 70 years. The levels seen in rainwater are expected to be relatively short in duration.”

“With the Japanese nuclear situation still out of control and expected to continue that way for months, and with elevated radioactivity continuing to show up in the U.S., it is inexplicable that EPA would shut down its Fukushima radiation monitoring effort,” stated PEER Executive Director Jeff Ruch, noting radiation readings in seawater off the Japanese coast at depths of up to 100 feet are 1,000 times normal levels.

At the same time, EPA continues to review a plan to dramatically increase permissible radioactive levels in drinking water and soil following “radiological incidents,” such as nuclear power-plant accidents. The proposed radiation guides (called Protective Action Guides or PAGs) allow long-term cleanup standards thousands of times more lax than anything EPA has ever before accepted, permitting doses to the public that EPA itself estimates would cause a cancer in as much as every fourth person exposed.

“This is the worst possible time for EPA to roll back radiological protections for Americans,” added Ruch, pointing out that the EPA PAGs are favored by the nuclear industry but are vigorously opposed by public health professionals inside EPA. “The lesson from Fukushima should not be that we just have to learn to live with high levels of industrial radioactive pollution.”
Weather Station
Bishop's Orchards, Guilford Elevation
37 ft at 1pm on may 15 2011!!!

weather cloudy Temperature is 62.2 °F winds north at 3 mph...!!!
605. DDR
Its nice to see our first T-wave on the map,just picked up a 1/2 inch in about 5 mins here in Trini
606. txjac
Wow, Skye ...thats so totally re-assuring ..NOT!
Good afternoon.
Not wanting anyone becoming hurt, or their property damaged, but this flooding might just be a wondrous thing for the gulf, in as much as it might flush the gulf of the BP oil mismanagement?
609. txjac
Quoting plages:
Not wanting anyone becoming hurt, or their property damaged, but this flooding might just be a wondrous thing for the gulf, in as much as it might flush the gulf of the BP oil mismanagement?


Funny that you should mention that. I was thinking the same thing yesterday.

However my heart and prayers go out to those being impacted with the flooding


Federal authorities have announced plans to open two more gates of Louisiana's Morganza Floodway, increasing the diversion of Mississippi River water that will flood rural areas along the Atchafalaya River basin, while easing flood threats to Baton Rouge and, New Orleans.

The first two massive Morganza gates were opened Saturday. The Army Corps of Engineers said two more gates would be opened Sunday.

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/05 /mississippi_river_flood_spurs.html
Flooding the Gulf with fresh water is not a good thing. Oyster reefs and the like are salt water fellows. Also the other aquatic life that hangs out on these reefs don't dig fresh water either. We are doing well on the Gulf now without the fresh water clean up. Our fishing and crabbing and oystering is fantastic this spring, Come on down !
612. txjac
Wish that there was some way to divert some of that water to Houston! We need it in a bad way.

My daughter and I walk the bayou about a mile from where we live a couple times a week. We go to feed about 50 turtles that hang out there ...it's getting pretty shallow
wwltv.com

MORGANZA SPILLWAY, La. – Two more massive steel gates at the Morganza spillway were opened Sunday morning to ease pressure on the Mississippi River levees in south Louisiana, sending more water flowing into and further flooding the Atchafalaya Basin.

Around 9 a.m., crews from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened two more of the multi-ton gates, a day after opening two bays, bringing the total of four at the spillway 310 miles from New Orleans.

With the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season beginning today, here are the names:
Afternoon all.

I'm admiring all the # of inches posts and hoping by tonight I will have reason to be whoo hooing and celebrating my own rainfall. [hopefully that will mean I don't have to clean the car.... lol]

Also quite exciting to see that first TWO and the T-wave in the ATL.

I'm thinking we may not get a June named storm [last year we had 1, right?] but I expect we'll see a fair amount of T-wave action before July.

Looking forward to the next round of forecasts. Does anybody think the big names will increase their numbers?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
wwltv.com

MORGANZA SPILLWAY, La. – Two more massive steel gates at the Morganza spillway were opened Sunday morning to ease pressure on the Mississippi River levees in south Louisiana, sending more water flowing into and further flooding the Atchafalaya Basin.

Around 9 a.m., crews from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened two more of the multi-ton gates, a day after opening two bays, bringing the total of four at the spillway 310 miles from New Orleans.



Can someone please explain why they are opening these gates so quickly? It seems the river stage at Baton rouge is creeping up faster than initially predicted. Just a little too close for comfort for me..
Quoting Levi32:
A decent disturbance in the African Easterly Jet is currently along ~4W, but likely not well-enough defined to be analyzed as a tropical wave by the NHC.

LEVI

Can you give me the link to this loop over W Africa?
618. txjac
Good luck with getting that rain Baha ...got my fingers crossed for you
Quoting brla61:


Can someone please explain why they are opening these gates so quickly? It seems the river stage at Baton rouge is creeping up faster than initially predicted. Just a little too close for comfort for me..


Okay. I'm a little confused about this statement. They are opening them so quickly, and the river is rising faster? Doesn't that answer itself? I'm so confuuuused.
The plan was to open one, let that water come up some, then open others for two basic reasons: to give animals a chance to get out of the area with a gradual rise in water instead of a surge; and to get water behind the spillway so when the next gates were opened there wouldn't be as much turbulence which could actually undermine and weaken the downstream side, thus creating a potential disaster if it caused part of it to collapse.
Alas!
...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Okay. I'm a little confused about this statement. They are opening them so quickly, and the river is rising faster? Doesn't that answer itself? I'm so confuuuused.
The plan was to open one, let that water come up some, then open others for two basic reasons: to give animals a chance to get out of the area with a gradual rise in water instead of a surge; and to get water behind the spillway so when the next gates were opened there wouldn't be as much turbulence which could actually undermine and weaken the downstream side, thus creating a potential disaster if it caused part of it to collapse.


Thank you Pcola, I realized how crazy the question sounded after posting.lol It just the nerves here. I just thought they were going to wait until today to open the second gate.
Just sitting here in Baton Rouge praying for the best best and preparing for the worst. I have friends in Pierre part, La too.
Very credible - (this news source) ....

Worker Dies at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Plant
TOYKO-(ENEWSPF)-May 2011. A spokesperson for the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) reported that at about 6:50 AM on May14th, 2011, a worker of a sub-contractor became seriously ill while working on the drainage treatment system in the Centralized Environment Facility of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The Centralized Environment Facility is the facility which treats radioactive waste generated by the nuclear power station.

The worker was carried to a doctor's room of the power station at 7:03 AM and had medical treatment where he subsequently lost consciousness and stopped self-breathing. At 8:35 AM, he was carried to Sogo Iwaki Kyoritsu Hospital where he was pronounced dead.

For reference, it was found that radioactive substances were not attached to the worker.

Source: tepco.co
The original plan was to open one gate yesterday and two today.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alas!
...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.


yep finally!!!!!
Quoting Chicklit:
The original plan was to open one gate yesterday and two today.


Sorry my mistake.In my original post, I think I said one today. They opened two on yesterday and plan to open two today. Just seems to be moving too fast for me
Quoting sunlinepr:
Como tu pones loops the de mapas?
brla61, i get that. especially since they did not plan to open more than one bay yesterday.
Quoting Gearsts:
Como tu pones loops the de mapas?

De cuales de ellos? Los de http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil??

From where? The navy webpage??
Quoting hydrus:
On the first day of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Maybe we will do that some day. South Florida got a nice drenching....


A lot of rain here in Central Florida this weekend too, there was lots of minor damage from severe thunderstorms gusts around the area yesterday from tree branches down, power lines and traffic lights out as well. We picked up almost 2 inches as well so it was a very nice system.
Quoting Chicklit:
brla61, i get that. especially since they did not plan to open more than one bay yesterday.


Don't mean to keep beating a dead horse. But not even a cheetah can outrun dat water.... thanks for responding
So 12 May is the day of first TWave in 2011.Yes!!!
Our first tropical wave of the season:

To add to and/or expand upon what else has been said here today in regards to the situation at Fukushima:

TEPCO acknowledges that the cores of reactors 1, 2, & 3 likely all melted down shortly after the earthquake/tsunami, reaching over 5,000 degrees, and leading to melt-through breaches of all three pressure vessels. Tens of thousands of tons of water have been pumped onto and into the reactors since then, and while this has helped prevent full-scale meltdowns--where the molten glowing blobs o'death worked their way downward through the containment structures--it's also led to the pooling and leaking of all that water, making it nearly impossible for workers to get close enough to do anything.

On Friday, a robot found the highest radiation levels yet since the catastrophe began, with readings up to 2,000 millisieverts per hour in some parts of Unit #1. As the limit for workers is 250 millisieverts per year, a worker would receive his or her annual dose limit in roughly five minutes. This, obviously, complicates mitigation efforts.

TEPCO's plan had been to have things stabilised by early June, and completely cleaned up by Thanksgiving or so. But the situation, while not as bad as it could be, is far worse than thought, so the plan to simply cool things off with water until they could be handled has been scrapped. The latest plan will likely involve recirculating the highly-radioactive water through decontamination filters and back into the reactors. At any rate, TEPCO claims they will still be able to meet their deadline.

Yeah, maybe that will work. At the very least, it's reassuring to know that the triple meltdown is being answered by guesswork and lots of trial and error; TEPCO was obviously very well prepared for such an eventuality.

Wall Street Journal
The wave is seen on the far right of the animation below. It is very far south.

Quoting sunlinepr:


Are you in Puerto Rico? That is a nice loop.
Quoting Skyepony:


Got to add CMC at 108hrs..

Hmmmmm....Duration May 15 %u2013 May 23-1951-
Intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min), 980 mbar (hPa)
These animations can be generated from http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil

Quoting TomTaylor:
LEVI

Can you give me the link to this loop over W Africa?


The individual images can be reached from the RAMSDIS directory, but the animation is the output of a bash script that I designed, so the animation doesn't exist as a link.



^There is another weak bulge in the ITCZ over western Africa at 8W-10W, but it is likely too weakly-defined to be declared a tropical wave by the NHC.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Are you in Puerto Rico? That is a nice loop.


Caguas, PR.... that loop is from the navy webpage...
i doubt it is a coincidence the Mississippi River is having a 500 year flood one year after the gulf oil catastrophe.
it will certainly help dilute some of the oil/corexit toxins in the gulf of mexico.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Caguas, PR.... that loop is from the navy webpage...


San Juan here.Nice to know that there are others from PR here. I have a blog for the NE Caribbean to post about our daily local weather.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


San Juan here.Nice to know that there are others from PR here. I have a blog for the NE Caribbean to post about our daily local weather.


Good, Send me that link....

Mississippi River Flooding
This image provided by NASA Saturday May 14, 2011 and taken by an Expedition 27 crew member aboard the International Space Station May 12, 2011 clearly showing the outlines of some heavily flooded agricultural fields on the Missouri side of the Mississippi river. The center point for this frame is just north of Caruthersville, Mo. and west of Ridgely, Tenn. North is towards the lower right corner of the image.
As the Mississippi River strains at its levees, the story of the Salton Sea seems appropriate. Anyone curious about its history can look it up in Wikipedia.

The creation of the Salton Sea of today started in 1905, when heavy rainfall and snowmelt caused the Colorado River to swell, overrunning a set of headgates for the Alamo Canal. The resulting flood poured down the canal and breached an Imperial Valley dike, eroding two watercourses, the New River in the west, and the Alamo River in the east, each about 60 miles (97 km) long.[6] Over a period of approximately two years these two newly created rivers sporadically carried the entire volume of the Colorado River into the Salton Sink.[7]

The Southern Pacific Railroad attempted to stop the flooding by dumping earth into the canal's headgates area, but the effort was not fast enough, and as the river eroded deeper and deeper into the dry desert sand of the Imperial Valley, a massive waterfall was created that started to cut rapidly upstream along the path of the Alamo Canal that now was occupied by the Colorado. This waterfall was initially 15 feet (4.6 m) high but grew to a height of 80 feet (24 m) before the flow through the breach was finally stopped. It was originally feared that the waterfall would recede upstream to the true main path of the Colorado, attaining a height of up to 100 to 300 feet (30 to 91 m), from where it would be practically impossible to fix the problem. As the basin filled, the town of Salton, a Southern Pacific Railroad siding and Torres-Martinez Indian land were submerged. The sudden influx of water and the lack of any drainage from the basin resulted in the formation of the Salton Sea.[8][9]

The continuing intermittent flooding of the Imperial Valley from the Colorado River led to the idea of the need for a dam on the Colorado River for flood control. Eventually, the federal government sponsored survey parties in 1922 that explored the Colorado River for a dam site, ultimately leading to the construction of Hoover Dam in Black Canyon, which was constructed beginning in 1929 and completed in 1935. The dam effectively put an end to the flooding episodes in the Imperial Valley.


After the Colorado river was reclaimed, the Salton Sea continued on a long, strange trip. I came across a good video on the outcome. As the narrator in the video reminds us: "There but for the Grace of God go the rest of us."


We had yesterday a severe thunderstorm crossing the NE PR... If we had plains (we have a lot of mountains in the area), we would for sure, had a tornado... There were high winds and small hail...



Quoting sunlinepr:
We had yesterday a severe thunderstorm crossing the NE PR... If we had plains (we have a lot of mountains in the area), we would for sure, had a tornado... There were high winds and small hail...



Wow..That storm would have had to be very tall to dump hail that size so far south..
Quoting bappit:
As the Mississippi River strains at its levees, the story of the Salton Sea seems appropriate. Anyone curious about its history can look it up in Wikipedia.

The creation of the Salton Sea of today started in 1905, when heavy rainfall and snowmelt caused the Colorado River to swell, overrunning a set of headgates for the Alamo Canal. The resulting flood poured down the canal and breached an Imperial Valley dike, eroding two watercourses, the New River in the west, and the Alamo River in the east, each about 60 miles (97 km) long.[6] Over a period of approximately two years these two newly created rivers sporadically carried the entire volume of the Colorado River into the Salton Sink.[7]

The Southern Pacific Railroad attempted to stop the flooding by dumping earth into the canal's headgates area, but the effort was not fast enough, and as the river eroded deeper and deeper into the dry desert sand of the Imperial Valley, a massive waterfall was created that started to cut rapidly upstream along the path of the Alamo Canal that now was occupied by the Colorado. This waterfall was initially 15 feet (4.6 m) high but grew to a height of 80 feet (24 m) before the flow through the breach was finally stopped. It was originally feared that the waterfall would recede upstream to the true main path of the Colorado, attaining a height of up to 100 to 300 feet (30 to 91 m), from where it would be practically impossible to fix the problem. As the basin filled, the town of Salton, a Southern Pacific Railroad siding and Torres-Martinez Indian land were submerged. The sudden influx of water and the lack of any drainage from the basin resulted in the formation of the Salton Sea.[8][9]

The continuing intermittent flooding of the Imperial Valley from the Colorado River led to the idea of the need for a dam on the Colorado River for flood control. Eventually, the federal government sponsored survey parties in 1922 that explored the Colorado River for a dam site, ultimately leading to the construction of Hoover Dam in Black Canyon, which was constructed beginning in 1929 and completed in 1935. The dam effectively put an end to the flooding episodes in the Imperial Valley.


After the Colorado river was reclaimed, the Salton Sea continued on a long, strange trip. I came across a good video on the outcome. As the narrator in the video reminds us: "There but for the Grace of God go the rest of us."




I came across that very video a day or two ago! eerie isn't it?
Quoting sunlinepr:


Good, Send me that link....


I have been posting since yesterday at the blog all the flood advisories,about the hail etc.

Link
levi when will you have an update again is it soon or at the beginning of the season?
Quoting JRRP:

possible second wave south of CV ??
ya on average we should start to see about two maybe three per week now till late sept

Quoting Levi32:
Our first tropical wave of the season:

So Levi, estimatedly we got our first tropical wave off of africa on the 13th or 12th maybe? Cuz our first wave is now in the Central atlantic.
Quoting CothranRoss:


I came across that very video a day or two ago! eerie isn't it?

The Wikipedia article mentions how the Salton Sea has become a significant bird sanctuary and that there are plans to further geo-engineer it to limit further increases in salinity. That part is not mentioned in the video, still an interesting video.
Quoting hydrus:
Wow..That storm would have had to be very tall to dump hail that size so far south..


Its probably not so much how tall the storm was, but what the atmosphere was like. The air aloft was colder than normal, which explains the hail. Tropical cyclones can have thunderstorm tops over 60000 ft that never drop hail.

Thunderstorms in the tropics frequently reach towering heights that are even taller than storms that often produce huge hail in the Central U.S. The results is just even heavier rain. They produce hail in only the higher reaches of the storms, but a very large part of the storm is composed of warm and very high water content clouds, so the hail melts on the way down. Even here in Florida, I have seen storms that are supposed to have large hail cores, move right over us, but the hail all melts before making it to the surface.

Hurricane Hunters have actually encountered large hail on their missions flying into hurricanes, but it is because they are so high into the atmosphere.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
levi when will you have an update again is it soon or at the beginning of the season?


I plan on writing and/or recording a season outlook sometime between now and when the NHC puts forth their forecast on the 19th.
Best link I've found on the history of the Atchafalaya hooking into the Mississippi. HISTORY OF THE OLD RIVER AREA AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE OLD RIVER CONTROL COMPLEX (ORCC).
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So Levi, estimatedly we got our first tropical wave off of africa on the 13th or 12th maybe? Cuz our first wave is now in the Central atlantic.


Technically yes.
The ECMWF is now onboard with at least a depression developing near Bermuda on the 22nd. The CMC and NOGAPS also show similar. All keep it very weak, a 40 mph TS at most. Its something to watch though.
Quoting Levi32:


The individual images can be reached from the RAMSDIS directory, but the animation is the output of a bash script that I designed, so the animation doesn't exist as a link.



^There is another weak bulge in the ITCZ over western Africa at 8W-10W, but it is likely too weakly-defined to be declared a tropical wave by the NHC.
ah that's smart. thanks

and I believe there is a link to the actual loop on the ramsdis site but you must have the correct username and password
Hmmmmm...interesting
Levi, can you help me out, I was going through a presentation on powerpoint, and was trying to move Weather456's wave tracking chart, from presentation to another and I lost it trying to move it. If you can please post it if you have. Don't quite remember the details on all the dates from the years.
Good explanation of what happened in 1973 at the low sill structure from the America's Wetland Resources website.



Potential [emphasis added] scouring beneath the low sill structure [in 1973]. Had this happened, the structure may have collapsed. In fact, deep pits were scoured on each side, but did not unite underneath.



Quoting CybrTeddy:
The ECMWF is now onboard with at least a depression developing near Bermuda on the 22nd. The CMC and NOGAPS also show similar. All keep it very weak, a 40 mph TS at most. Its something to watch though.
you forgot the CMC is forecasting the formation of a storm in the EPAC @ 120 hours, right before the formation of a weak TS near bermuda...
Quoting TomTaylor:
ah that's smart. thanks

and I believe there is a link to the actual loop on the ramsdis site but you must have the correct username and password


This is true, but those of us who are not authorized personnel must resort to other methods ;)
So the latest tropics news...
The EPAC season begins.... May 15
The the NOGAPS, CMC, and EMCWF predict a TC forming near bermuda... May 15
The CMC predicts the formation of an EPAC system... May 15
The first tropical wave of the season emerges off of Africa... May 12
Quoting Levi32:


This is true, but those of us who are not authorized personnel must resort to other methods ;)
haha yep

So the TC probability map shows two moderate areas in WPAC, Two weak areas in the EPAC, and a weak area in the Atlantic(over South America) which will come off of S. america into the SW caribbean sea, then to the EPAC it goes! maybe...
okay, so i've almost restored weather456's wave tracking chart, but does anyone know when the first tropical emerged off of Africa in 2006, and 2009?
Thanks...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

So the TC probability map shows two moderate areas in WPAC, Two weak areas in the EPAC, and a weak area in the Atlantic(over South America) which will come off of S. america into the SW caribbean sea, then to the EPAC it goes! maybe...

Some models were taking it into the trough sitting off of the East coast, developing a weak tropical system. The one in the EPAC is more interesting for now though since it has little white specs showing up on rb (along with vorticity). Needs to gain some latitude and stay in a low shear region though.
wow finally

THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.
The Latest Gulf warmth polls:
1st Place; 2011: 85%(1st since April 19th)
2nd Place; 2007: 82%
3rd Place; 2008: 74%
4th Place; 2010: 49%
5th Place; 2005: 37%(surprisingly 2005 is in last)
One thing that has not been mentioned is the Fuse Plug Levee.This is the forth and final safety net and has never been used. This as east-west running levee located between the west guide levee and the west internal levee along the Atchafalaya. To its north lies the great back swamp area; to its south lies the West Atchafalaya Floodway. It works much like a fuse in your car. The fuse consists of a piece of wire that will tolerate an electric flow of a certain level (e.g., 15 amps). If a surge of higher electricity hits the fuse, the wire melts before the surge damages the electronics of the car. The Fuse Plug Levee is lower than the adjacent west guide and west internal levees. If the water in the back swamp is not contained by all the measures taken to date, then water begins to flow over the fuse plug levee rather than over adjacent levees where it would flood human habitations. Once water begins to flow over the top of the Fuse Plug Levee, it quickly tears it down until it carries a maximum of 250,000 cfs. This is designed to work on its own, but if extremely critical, it can be dynamited. The Fuse Plug Levee has never been needed.
The link that bappit posted #658 is excellent Here is another excellent link on the Evolution of the Levee System Along the Mississippi.
Link
675. xcool






newwwwwwww
676. afj3
Somebody else already posted this. Develop. Please and come here to South Florida as something weak and not damaging. We need the rain!
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.
677. xcool
Tropical Season is getting closerrrrr
emcf- so as of this moment, how many morganza gates have been opened?

Also, has Bonne carre gotten open to 100% yet?
679. afj3
Quoting aquak9:
emcf- so as of this moment, how many morganza gates have been opened?

Also, has Bonne carre gotten open to 100% yet?


4 gates are open at Morganza last I heard. Bonne Carre I am not sure on what percentage of it is open.
hey xcool....could u explain what the maps are showing in post number 675?
thanks.

My mind can't seem to wrap itself around all that water.
684. xcool
ECMWF Multi Model July August September mean sea level pressures suggests lower pressures
685. xcool
brb
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
hey xcool....could u explain what the maps are showing in post number 675?
first pic is precip anomaly and the second is temp anomaly.

both are for August, September, and October of 2011 and from the ECMWF model
this is to get everyone into the mood



Link
688. beell

Quoting aquak9:
emcf- so as of this moment, how many morganza gates have been opened?

Also, has Bonne carre gotten open to 100% yet?


As of yesterday, 300 of 350 according to USACE.

The Bonnet Carre Spillway was partially opened on Monday, May 9, 2011 in order to keep the volume of the Mississippi River flows at New Orleans from exceeding 1.25 million cubic feet per second (cfs). By the end of Saturday, May 14th a total of 300 bays will be opened. The Corps will continue to monitor the Mississippi River flow, and will open additional bays as needed.
USACE - Team New Orleans
What are they actually showing for the heart of the hurricane season.And what is the temp. anomaly showing nuetral?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The ECMWF is now onboard with at least a depression developing near Bermuda on the 22nd. The CMC and NOGAPS also show similar. All keep it very weak, a 40 mph TS at most. Its something to watch though.
. How do I get access to all these models? I know how to access GFS but not NOGAPS/CMC/ECMF.
Quoting xcool:






newwwwwwww


Continuing to support the idea that the Cape Verde season will be lessened, but more activity for the Caribbean and SW Atlantic.
So it begins, The first AEW of the season. No looking back now, good time to get all the preps in order.
Quoting hurricaneben:
. How do I get access to all these models? I know how to access GFS but not NOGAPS/CMC/ECMF.


You can try this one.
Link
694. xcool
Levi32 .i agree
I'm starting to think EPAC will be starting off very shortly with this current blob. Looks like good outflow, vorticity, and convection; if it gains latitude it will most likely become something.

Quoting StAugustineFL:


You can try this one.
Link
. Thanks, bud.
Quoting hurricaneben:
. Thanks, bud.


yw
Aqua, Pat and I were talking about this yeasterday. I believe he said BCS was open to 100%
700. j2008
I got a feeling that the East Pacific will have TD #1 by tomorrow morning.
Quoting j2008:
I got a feeling that the East Pacific will have TD #1 by tomorrow morning.


If anything, it shows the season is upon us. Give it a little sustained latitude and I'll agree.
Quoting j2008:
I got a feeling that the East Pacific will have TD #1 by tomorrow morning.


The AOI is firmly entrenched in the ITCZ. This wave in the C-Atl will most likely be the first real shot at TD1 in the EPAC. MJO is working in it's favor as well. EPAC is forecast to have a more active season than last.
First substantial rainfall in a long time here in Jupiter, FL yesterday and most of the SE Peninsula. It's amazing how quick the foliage perks up after a good drink.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The AOI is firmly entrenched in the ITCZ. This wave in the C-Atl will most likely be the first real shot at TD1 in the EPAC. MJO is working in it's favor as well. EPAC is forecast to have a more active season than last.


Pfft, no surprise about the 'more-active' part. Last year the Pacific had one of its least active seasons ever.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
First substantial rainfall in a long time here in Jupiter, FL yesterday and most of the SE Peninsula. It's amazing how quick the foliage perks up after a good drink.


It is amazing. My lawn looks much healthier today than it did Friday with only 2/3's of an inch. I can run the irrigation until the cows come home but nothing beats mother nature.
Check out the flooding in Columbia, South America from that low...



Quoting Skyepony:
Check out the flooding in Columbia, South America from that low...

But did the people on top of that car survive?
Quoting lhwhelk:


According to the article no one was killed or severely injured.
Quoting hurricaneben:


Pfft, no surprise about the 'more-active' part. Last year the Pacific had one of its least active seasons ever.


Not one, but it had the most inactive season ever recorded in the EPAC last year.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not one, but it had the most inactive season ever recorded in the EPAC last year.


Very true!
When will they ever have the name Josh on the hurricane list. They always come up with all these crazy names, and dont use names that are popular.
Quoting tampahurricane:
When will they ever have the name Josh on the hurricane list. They always come up with all these crazy names, and dont use names that are popular.


Hum, not sure why as names i think are taken from i think the Greeks i believe!
Josh doesn't make the list for 2010 in the US.

1 Jacob Isabella
2 Ethan Sophia
3 Michael Emma
4 Jayden Olivia
5 William Ava
6 Alexander Emily
7 Noah Abigail
8 Daniel Madison
9 Aiden Chloe
10 Anthony Mia

Odd name "Aiden" to be popular. Never met anyone named that.

Edit: Checking the popularity of Josh for the last 20 years, the highest it got on the list was 662nd in 2004.
Quoting tampahurricane:
When will they ever have the name Josh on the hurricane list. They always come up with all these crazy names, and dont use names that are popular.


IDK, I would really like a Ben though on the hurricane list one of these years.
Jumping off Flood topic for a moment.. just watched a documentary on Atom Bomb testing and after seeing a 10 megaton explosion I had to wonder.... what effect did all that heat have on the upper atmosphere?? Does anyone know of any reports or analysis on this topic?? the radioactivity was bad enough... how may people do you know that have had skin cancer?... but the 'trauma' that the poor atmosphere was subjected to over the course of 10+ years (compared to a significant volcano eruption once every few hundred years)and the Russians detonated a 50 megaton monster at one point.... any recommendations would be most appreciated. THANKS!
Some are talking about an AOI...... i don't really see much to talk about as Shear is way to high for anything to develop. I just don't see anything and models hardly show anything at all.


DARPA Time article: "On Saturday afternoon, Sandra Kelly, a 53-year-old cook, stood along the Atchafalaya (pronounced: Attach-uh-fah-la-ya) River"

Urk. uh-cha'-fuh-lie-yah

Merriam-Webster says it rhymes with Iphegenia.

@716 Here's a pic relating mushroom cloud height to bomb yield. Compare that to your average thunderstorm height, and consider that there's lots more thunderstorms than giant mushrooms.

716: excerpt from website; NuclearWeaponArchive.org

The device offically designated RDS-220, known to its designers as Big Ivan, and nicknamed in the west Tsar Bomba (and referred to as the Big Bomb by Sakharov in his Memoirs [Sakharov 1990]) was the largest nuclear weapon ever constructed or detonated. This three stage weapon was actually a 100 megaton bomb design, but the uranium fusion stage tamper of the tertiary (and possibly the secondary) stage(s) was replaced by one(s) made of lead. This reduced the yield by 50% by eliminating the fast fissioning of the uranium tamper by the fusion neutrons, and eliminated 97% of the fallout (1.5 megatons of fission, instead of about 51.5 Mt), yet still proved the full yield design. The result was the "cleanest" weapon ever tested with 97% of the energy coming from fusion reactions. The effect of this bomb at full yield on global fallout would have been tremendous. It would have increased the world's total fission fallout since the invention of the atomic bomb by 25%.
Merriam-Webster says it rhymes with Iphegenia.


Well that just makes it so much clearer! :)
722 Interesting. Thank you Mr. Sakharov ... I guess.

Found this tidbit about our atomic mischief in the Wikipedia mushroom cloud article.

If the fireball is comparable to the size of atmospheric density scale height, the movement of the cloud will be ballistic, overshooting large volume of denser air to greater altitudes. Significantly smaller fireballs produce clouds with buoyancy-governed ascent.

After reaching the tropopause, the region of strong static stability, the cloud tends to slow its ascent and spread out. If it still contains sufficient energy, part of it may continue rising up into stratosphere.[6] Mass of air ascending from troposphere to stratosphere leads to formation of acoustic-gravity waves, virtually identical to those created by intense stratosphere-penetrating thunderstorms. Smaller scale explosions generate waves of higher frequency, classified as infrasound.
DARPA- the pic that accompanies the article you posted? it's from St. Louis! it's a statue of Lewis and Clark, just across the river from the arch.

Man I wish I was that person's editor...
I was wondering how to pronounce Iphigenia and now I know!
Quoting aquak9:
DARPA- the pic that accompanies the article you posted? it's from St. Louis! it's a statue of Lewis and Clark, just across the river from the arch.

Man I wish I was that person's editor...


Unless we are looking at different articles, the picture I see - below the headline but above the article - show the Morganza gates open. hmmmmm
Rotating Service Structure Opens For Launch
Sun, 15 May 2011 11:35:40 AM CST


The rotating service structure (RSS) on NASA Kennedy Space Center's Launch Pad 39A is fully open and moved away from space shuttle Endeavour. The RSS began moving at 11:44 a.m. EDT, about 15 minutes ahead of schedule. The retraction was complete at 12:24 p.m.

Final preparations continue for Endeavour's 8:56 a.m. Monday liftoff. Cockpit switches will be configured this afternoon, while Commander Mark Kelly and his crew will begin their launch sleep schedule at 4 p.m.

The shuttle's electricity-producing fuel cells will be activated at 5:46 p.m. and managers will meet at 11 p.m. to give a "Go-No Go" to load the External Fuel Tank with liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen.

Coverage of the fuel loading begins at 11:30 p.m. on NASA TV and at www.nasa.gov/ntv. The tanking process is scheduled to begin at 11:36 p.m.

At 12 a.m. Monday, Endeavour's crew wakes up for launch.



NASA - KSC Video Feeds





For those who missed this earlier and are interested.

Real-Time Space Shuttle in Google Earth
Quoting sunlinepr:

It's been overcast for 2 days here, but very little rain from that mess overhead.
Some rumbles to my west this afternoon, but no rain on me!

This is very strange weather....
p'cola- you're RIGHT- I musta got lost in another article linked to that one...I have seen too much water and my eyes are blurry.

Sorry about that.
Quoting pottery:

It's been overcast for 2 days here, but very little rain from that mess overhead.
Some rumbles to my west this afternoon, but no rain on me!

This is very strange weather....


Very strange beginnings...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Very strange beginnings...

Indeed!!
What happens next????
Quoting pottery:

Indeed!!
What happens next????


Lets Hope models tell us something real....
The 30 day SOI index continues to tumble after it reached +30 by mid April.As of today, it has dropped to +5.5.

With the SOI contineing to drop,does that mean that we could see an el nino?
Quoting sunlinepr:


Let Hope models tell us something real....


Poof, LOL
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
With the SOI contineing to drop,does that mean that we could see an el nino?
no i think
740. xcool
noo el nino this years next years
Quoting xcool:
Tropical Season is getting closerrrrr
faster and faster we are going
Quoting hurricaneben:


IDK, I would really like a Ben though on the hurricane list one of these years.
There is different letters that are marked for different country names. Example: I is russian names, and T is Fiji names.
All you texans, i have found the solution to our drought. My mom hasn't washed her car in 3 months(cuz it rains everytime she washes it) so the drought has occured. The good news is my mom washed her car today! BRING ON THE RAIN!!!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 30 day SOI index continues to tumble after it reached +30 by mid April.As of today, it has dropped to +5.5.

Have'nt seen a drop that deep since early last year.
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
With the SOI contineing to drop,does that mean that we could see an el nino?
No, this only means that the Atmosphere is finally responding to the warming of the tropical pacific, it should bounce back and forth between 10 and -10 in the SOI throughout the season, this will bring us to a neutral, and will only give the Pacific a more active tropical season. and a slightly less active hurricane season in the Atlantic(compared to last year that is)
745. txjac
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
All you texans, i have found the solution to our drought. My mom hasn't washed her car in 3 months(cuz it rains everytime she washes it) so the drought has occured. The good news is my mom washed her car today! BRING ON THE RAIN!!!


Tell Mom thanks! We need the rain badly ..crunchy, yellow grass
Quoting txjac:


Tell Mom thanks! We need the rain badly ..crunchy, yellow grass
I know what you mean. all over the place in central texas, but all the rain up in north texas has made it so much greener there. I traveled up there this weekend, and i could see the grass get greener the farther north i got.
I am on hold with McAfee for 25 minutes now.
Evidently, there's been a virus outbreak :(
I made the mistake of opening an email sent to me by my neice on facebook. oops. It was on my lap top so think this one's safe.
Problem surfaced when I renewed a subscription on the laptop with atm and then my checking account was wiped out. Hoping that since it's sunday the bank will be able to recall the charge. ugh.
Quoting Chicklit:
I am on hold with McAfee for 25 minutes now.
Evidently, there's been a virus outbreak :(
I made the mistake of opening an email sent to me by my neice on facebook. oops. It was on my lap top so think this one's safe.
Problem surfaced when I renewed a subscription on the laptop with atm and then my checking account was wiped out. Hoping that since it's sunday the bank will be able to recall the charge. ugh.

McAfee and Norton are two of the top comercial antivirus programs and two of the most hacked ones...
For me, Avast (Free Home edition) has been a perfect solution for the past 4 years.... free renewal each year....
There are other antivirus (like AVG Antivirus) that are also free....
If you install Avast, use it in combination with Malwarebytes AntiSpyware....

There is excellent Freeware... out there
Check out this excellent link for the best freeware reviews and download links, by category...

Link

good MIDnight everybody...
thanks sunlinepr, I just renewed. what a mess.
called and after being on hold for 45 minutes talked to a man who told me they were working on a patch that may be ready within 24 hours. ugh. i am a morning person. going to sleep now.
never use McAfee... I am an IT for a School District and we left them because they software never caches anything.. and it uses a lot of computer resources...
(So a TD or TS may develop next week?)
Quoting Chicklit:
thanks sunlinepr, I just renewed. what a mess.
called and after being on hold for 45 minutes talked to a man who told me they were working on a patch that may be ready within 24 hours. ugh. i am a morning person. going to sleep now.


Good night to all...
Shuttle crew boarding Endeavour.
Link
Morning, everybody.

I'm still waiting for the rain, here in Nassau. It looks like Grand Bahama got some last night, but Nassau hasn't seen anything yet.... it looks surprisingly clear off to the east, given the fact that the front is supposed to be passing through here shortly...



Anyway, here's hoping I'll actually NEED that umbrella I'm taking with me today... lol

Ya'll have a good one.
BTW, what's THIS???

Quoting Chicklit:
I am on hold with McAfee for 25 minutes now.
Evidently, there's been a virus outbreak :(
I made the mistake of opening an email sent to me by my neice on facebook. oops. It was on my lap top so think this one's safe.
Problem surfaced when I renewed a subscription on the laptop with atm and then my checking account was wiped out. Hoping that since it's sunday the bank will be able to recall the charge. ugh.
Wow, chick. I just read about that Facebook problem. Seems to me the worst virus outbreaks we've had lately have come from FB.... makes me reluctant to use FB on both computers....
Quoting superweatherman:
never use McAfee... I am an IT for a School District and we left them because they software never caches anything.. and it uses a lot of computer resources...
(So a TD or TS may develop next week?)
A couple of my different laptops over the years have come packaged with MacAfee, and I always just wipe it off and install Norton instead. I'm not saying NAV is perfect, either, but they seem to have a lot more "on the ball" than Mac does.
Geez, even Ike isn't up yet.... not used to being the first up in the a.m.

Anyway, I gotta head out....

L8r...
761. IKE
I'm up.

53.8 my morning low.
Good morning.Another active afternoon is on tap for Puerto Rico.Anything from the models about tropical development in EPAC or Atlantic?

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS 90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS 76 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 65 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 76 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
67 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 75 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS
RANGING TO 68 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
With the SOI contineing to drop,does that mean that we could see an el nino?


Most likely...no.
764. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN
Finally some rain here in Naples; the airport received 1.27", which isn't necessarily a lot, but it's nearly as much as we had received since March 1, so we'll take it. Of course, we're still down 5.38" since 1/1, and 10.39" since 10/1. But rainy season will start any day now...

Temp-wise, we're supposed to reach 65 for each of the next two nights (after hitting 67 last evening, the coolest we've been since April 6). The last time we reached 65 was March 24. Not to worry, though; by Friday we'll be back in the upper 80s/low 90s, with lows into the mid 70s.

So far as AV software is concerned, I'll say what I always say: stay away from Norton and McAfee. Their software is effective, but far from efficient, as both are bloated resource hogs. I like AVG and Avast, with a better liking for the latter. If you look at a list of running processes with Norton or McAfee installed, you'll see lots of CPU time, disk activity, and memory being devoted to them--something that is definitely not the case with Avast or AVG.
Good Morning.
Still under high overcast here this morning.
Last night was hot and sticky, and it looks to be a day like that.
Quoting IKE:
I'm up.

53.8 my morning low.

64 here, going to be 86 F. Actually not going to be 90 today. Ever since that front came through last thursday weve been cooler than we have in the weeks past. Still about to warm up...
GOOD NEWS FOR TEXAS 4 days of Chances of rain.
Austin, Texas
Today: 86F, Partly Cloudy
Tuesday: 90F, Partly Cloudy
Wednesday: 88F, Partly Cloudy
Thursday: 85F, Scattered T-Storms/ 40%
Friday: 90F, Isolated T-Storms/ 30%
Saturday: 90F, Isolated T-Storms/ 30%
Sunday: 92F, Isolated T-Storms/ 30%
Monday: 94F, Partly Cloudy
Tuesday: 94F, Partly Cloudy
Wednesday: 93F, Sunny
63 here this morning. This is the coolest we've been since early April. Picked up some needed rain over the weekend as well with lots of severe wx nearby Saturday with many areas getting hail. It appears the rainy season will be delayed until late next week as a result of this unusually strong trough of low pressure. Also believe it or not we are still above normal for the year rainfall wise in Orlando with nearly 13.5" and Tampa with over 20" for the year. So rainfall wise we are doing really good despite the dry stretch of wx during the month of April thru early May.
769. Jax82
Its going to be a perfect morning to watch the shuttle take off. Clear and cool up here in NE FL.

At T-9 minutes and holding, the STS-134 launch countdown continues its march toward liftoff of space shuttle Endeavour at 8:56:28 a.m. EDT.

During this hold, the mission management team will conduct their final "Go-No-Go" poll, and the countdown enters the home stretch.

The crew members for space shuttle Endeavour's STS-134 mission are Commander Mark Kelly, Pilot Gregory H. Johnson and Mission Specialists Michael Fincke, Greg Chamitoff, Andrew Feustel and European Space Agency astronaut Roberto Vittori.

During the 16-day mission, Endeavour and its crew will deliver the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) and spare parts including two S-band communications antennas, a high-pressure gas tank and additional spare parts for Dextre.
After using McAfee, Norton, and Black Ice, and still being hacked, I installed Kaspersky Internet Security and Spybot S&D.
Have been hacker and virus free for three years now.
14 attempts have been made, none of them managed to get past Kaspersky.
Only one small inconvenience, their automatic cookie deletion program,
which causes you to have to log back in to some of your sites after the program wipes them all out. :)
LIFT OFF BABY
There she goes!
Bah... I missed the shuttle launch... booo...
Good morning everyone. Well, yesterday when that front moved through the Keys, I was very hopeful that we would get some rain. Had clouds, thunder, cooler air, and 15 drops of rain. Then the sun came out. So disappointing. So BahaHurican, don't get your hopes up. I can't wait for one of our frog strangling downpours. I will be dancing in the street, until I have to dog paddle:)
Quoting Hurrykane:


Most likely...no.



It will probably be very warm neutral.
Made it up and had a sweet separation.
Heaters doing great.
Thanks Dr. Masters, for posting the great river flow map and historical map of flow paths. They are beautiful and useful. I had no idea the Ohio was 10x larger than the Mississippi at their confluence in 1958. I wonder what that ratio is now.

Are there live webcams at the structures they just opened on the Achafalaya?
779. IKE
Need an invest in the ATL to ignite a dull blog. I don't see anything based on the GFS and ECMWF in the next 10 days.
Need rain in TX to ignite this blog
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what's THIS???

What ever it is, a gave us a decent downpour here on the plateau this morning. And it was 45 degrees at the time....A bit raw for middle or late May...:)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Need rain in TX to ignite this blog
I hope you get some..Texas will soak it up like a thirsty beach towel...:)
just go burn some leaves, Ike. Quit complaining.
certainly not the usual weather here in Ms....much too nice...59 and crispy...the humidity is so low, the hair is actually still puffy..lol..
785. GBlet
Windows has finally come up with Essentials, which works great.I also ditched the standard defrag program as well because all 3 are still based off the originals that are some 30 yrs old. Auslogics is a fantastic defrag program.
Quoting aquak9:
just go burn some leaves, Ike. Quit complaining.
Good morning Aqua..I was hoping for a facetious response from you after the link I posted yesterday..I like your snappy comeback lines.
785, the IT blog is down the hall on the right
788. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
just go burn some leaves, Ike. Quit complaining.
Which is exactly what I feel like doing.
Ike, need to come to TX to burn leaves, as they will be fallen off the trees from the drought.
Then we have someone to blame on the wildfires
791. IKE

Quoting RitaEvac:
Then we have someone to blame on the wildfires
lol.
792. GBlet
That's ok Rita I am not lost. A little leary this week as local mets are already talking about storm system that is 4 days out and Pottery is talking of strange weather in BC. Things that make you go hmmmm.
I can't even buy a storm
Good Morning. Very nice weather after the cool front along the Gulf but that does not slow down the flooding. With ENSO neutral conditions for H-Season and record heat in the Gulf, lets hope that storms stay out of the Gulf this season.....
hydrus- got lost in that link, some REALLY frightening costumes...he had a great voice but some really out-there costumes.
Woke up to the smell of smoke this morning; not a good leaf-burning day around here:
Coastal Volusia County
Fire Weather WarningStatement as of 4:09 AM EDT on May 16, 2011
... Red flag warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for low relative humidity with wind for Lake... Seminole... Orange and Volusia counties...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a red flag warning... which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening.

Westerly surface and transport winds will combine with
temperatures reaching the lower 80s to produce very good to excellent dispersion. In addition... minimum rh values are forecast to dip below 35 percent this afternoon across the warning area.

The other news is I had Norton which stunk and was told by my on-line college program to get McAfee which I did and since then have been infected about 3 times. Evidently, the social networks are crawling with bugs. This one came from an email on Facebook that I thought was from my neice! McAfee charges $89 every time to remove a virus and I wonder what I am paying my annual fee for. This time they asked me to give them 24 hours to devise a patch. There were so many people infected yesterday that I waited on the phone for 45 minutes and then hung up and contacted someone online.

I don't know when was the last time...but here in PR we had hail during the past weekend. Specifically on Saturday, there were reports of hail, strong winds and heavy showers in the municipality of Canovanas which is located at the northeast of the island. Widns were responsible for the damage of many automobiles that were impacted by trees. Fortunately, there were no reports of people affected by the storm.
798. Jax82
lets add some color to the blog.

chiklit- that really really stinks. Were you able to get your bank account fixed?


seems a bit wet in this basin not too wet at least more like neutral
[Quoting bappit:
722 Interesting. Thank you Mr. Sakharov ... I guess.

Found this tidbit about our atomic mischief in the Wikipedia mushroom cloud article.

If the fireball is comparable to the size of atmospheric density scale height....,]


Notice the "fireball" . Mushroom clouds can be in proportion to thunderstorms but they are a bit hotter yes? That is the affect I was wondering about.. How does that much heat effect the upper atmosphere? Any thoughts?
802. Jax82
plenty of moisture in the E Carib.

DARPA Time article: "On Saturday afternoon, Sandra Kelly, a 53-year-old cook, stood along the Atchafalaya (pronounced: Attach-uh-fah-la-ya) River"

Urk. uh-cha'-fuh-lie-yah

Merriam-Webster says it rhymes with Iphegenia.



It is pronounced:

Ah-Chaf-A-Lie-Yah.

Of course, everyone has their own way of saying it.
Quoting GBlet:
Windows has finally come up with Essentials, which works great.I also ditched the standard defrag program as well because all 3 are still based off the originals that are some 30 yrs old. Auslogics is a fantastic defrag program.


I try to avoid Windows applications, due to the constant intrusion of their software codes, and the regular patching of digital code (That's why you receive X number of updates every month).... Most of the time, I solve all my problems with freeware... Check ot this excellent link;

Link
I've made a web interface to the map in Figure 1, the historical meanders of the Mississippi river. Enjoy!
Quoting NOLALawyer:
DARPA Time article: "On Saturday afternoon, Sandra Kelly, a 53-year-old cook, stood along the Atchafalaya (pronounced: Attach-uh-fah-la-ya) River"

Urk. uh-cha'-fuh-lie-yah

Merriam-Webster says it rhymes with Iphegenia.



It is pronounced:

Ah-Chaf-A-Lie-Yah.

Of course, everyone has their own way of saying it.

That must be the N.O. way. :)
Latitude flow is not the flow of the Mississippi. Latitude flow is the flow of all bodies of water at that latitude in that general area.

Therefore the latitude chart represents the flows of the Mississippi and Atchafalaya combined, not the Mississippi itself.
It's a wonderful article, but it's dated May.

I also find that on the internet I can't find any current information on the "Old River Control Structure."

I've heard it sustained some damage, but can't find any solid information about damages, or anything current. Every thing seems to reach back to May.

What gives?

signed August 2011



any suggests where else to look?
6 years later, this is a great blog!