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Amanda Peaks as Strongest May Eastern Pacific Hurricane on Record: 155 mph Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on May 27, 2014

The Eastern Pacific's first named storm of 2014, Amanda, put on an impressive performance of rapid intensification over the Memorial Day weekend, becoming the strongest May Eastern Pacific hurricane ever recorded on Sunday. Amanda peaked as a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds at 15 UTC (10 am EST) May 25, beating the previous May record holder, Hurricane Adolph of 2001, which reached a peak intensity of 145 mph on May 29th of that year. The earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Eastern Pacific was Hurricane Ava of 1973, which peaked at 160 mph on June 6, 1973. All three years (2014, 2001, and 1973) had ocean temperatures that were unusually warm for May along the path of these intense hurricanes: at least 0.4°C above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Amanda at approximately 18 UTC (1 pm EDT) on May 25, 2014. Amanda had just peaked as a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds three hours previous to this MODIS image, at 15 UTC (10 am EST) Sunday, May 25. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Satellite loops show that Amanda has been holding its own against moderate wind shear, and is maintaining Category 3 status, with a solid area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and the SHIPS model shows that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a very warm 28 - 29°C, which is well above the typical 26°C threshold needed to maintain a tropical storm. These conditions should allow Amanda to remain a hurricane through Wednesday. By Thursday, Amanda is expected to encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters, which should weaken the storm. Amanda is expected to dissipate before reaching the coast of Mexico.

Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1
The Atlantic hurricane season starts next week, and the long-range GFS model continues to suggest that the Western Caribbean will be capable of brewing the season's first "Invest" during the first week of June. Residents of Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of disturbed weather with heavy rainfall beginning around June 2.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. FOREX
Quoting 500. wunderkidcayman:


I do have to admit that is the strongest one yet at 994mb last run it was 998mb run before was 999mb and before that it was 1000mbs


Are you focusing on 13N 78W, seems like a slight swirl in that area.
Quoting 501. FOREX:



Are you focusing on 13N 78W, seems like a slight swirl in that area.

Ok remember earlier today or should I say yesterday now I did speak about some slight rotation around the area
Well here is the current vort map for 850mbs
There seems to be something
Quoting 501. FOREX:



Are you focusing on 13N 78W, seems like a slight swirl in that area.

Anyway remember my theory is
The first tropical wave will help prep the area by bringing in moisture and some vorticity and the second tropical wave will spark the development
504. FOREX
Quoting 503. wunderkidcayman:


Anyway remember my theory is
The first tropical wave will help prep the area by bringing in moisture and some vorticity and the second tropical wave will spark the development


The second wave is still over land right now, right?
Quoting 504. FOREX:



The second wave is still over land right now, right?

Part of it and part of it is the. Caribbean Sea
New 06Z sfc charts should be uploaded within an hour or two from now with 06Z GFS staring up within an hour after that
507. FOREX
Quoting 506. wunderkidcayman:

New 06Z sfc charts should be uploaded within an hour or two from now with 06Z GFS staring up within an hour after that


The second wave seems to be moving more NNW than NW. This might place it too far to the East of wave 1 to help spark it. your thoughts?
The storm that keeps on giving:



I imagine May 2014 will rank in the top five highest ACE years in the eastern Pacific, if not in the top two or three.
Quoting sunlinepr:


One issue I have is the 324 hour mark (very unreliable at that time frame), and the GFS keeps backing the time up.
Here we are May 28 and the GFS is still showing a system at the 300 hour mark.

The GFS (for the past 2 weeks) keeps backing up the time frame for the formation of the Low in the Western Caribbean.

So we'll just sit back and wait.
Quoting 498. sunlinepr:


That latest GFS run is reminding me of Tropical Storms Andrea (June 2013) and Debby (June 2012) in the GOM. Both storms were in the same general area of the NE Gulf. We will see if climatology and history repeats itself this year!
12z gfs had a low by the yucatan on mon..the 6z today has nothing there....cant believe the model now....
Quoting 512. LargoFl:

12z gfs had a low by the yucatan on mon..the 6z today has nothing there....cant believe the model now....


You typically aren't going to get run to run consistency from the models during early-season developments. The best thing to do is look for hints.

Chances are still greater than not that this is a ghost storm, though.
Well now, been lurking all winter. Seams the "game" may be on early this year. Been studding for years now. Her is my prediction and Hopefully I am wrong.
Atlantic Basin
15 named storms
9 canes
3 Major
1 Cat 5
2 canes will make land fall in US and one will be cat 2 or greater.

JFV will be banned twice and I will upset at least one blogger on accident! And Gro will finally tell us all which of the three ships he came over on, My guess The Nina.



Crow may be served on Dec. 1
Quoting 470. wunderkidcayman:

In August we will be having our 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley
In September we will be having our 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Ivan
Both Hurricanes came to Cayman back in 2004

Hard to believe its been 10 years for us? Don't know where the time has gone. Charley didn't affect us too badly, other than some wind/swell out east...but Florida will have its 10th anniversary in August too..for more than 1 storm effect
Quoting LargoFl:


For the past two days we've had strong T storm development just south and west of my location (55 mph winds and some minor damage to the south). We had lots of thunder and a few sprinkles, but that's it.

But it shows the rainy season is here. Maybe
today we'll get the T storms to form over our neighborhood.
Every time on refresh the page it takes about one minute to update. Is this normal for the new blog? How do I get the newest post to show on top instead of bottom. Thanks
519. MahFL
Quoting 419. help4u:

Nothing new under the sun,enjoy the rest of the day.Remember god so loved the world that he gave his only son that whosoever believes in him shall not perish but have EVERLASTING LIFE!!


Not everyone believes that though.
Quoting 519. MahFL:



Not everyone believes that though.


Too bad I'll be asleep soon. I love debating religion.
Quoting 518. Autistic2:

Every time on refresh the page it takes about one minute to update. Is this normal for the new blog? How do I get the newest post to show on top instead of bottom. Thanks


At the bottom below the message box, note the "Sort: Newest/Order" thing. There.
Is there anyone watching the rotation in St John Parish Louisiana???
Im in Ponchatoula
Quoting 520. KoritheMan:



Too bad I'll be asleep soon. I love debating religion.
best left off the blogs
morning cooler this am high of 70 today maybe 68
Quoting Autistic2:
Every time on refresh the page it takes about one minute to update. Is this normal for the new blog? How do I get the newest post to show on top instead of bottom. Thanks


I use Classic for this reason. Some computers everything works fine and you'll get a fast re-load while other computers it takes forever.
My laptop it takes forever to reload a page with the new format.
My Desktop computer reloads fine, but I still do not like the way it looks so I still use the Classic version.
I can't believe anyone likes the way the new format looks compared to the old format.

Here's link to the classic page. You can always come back to this classic page and just go to the most recent blog entry.

Classic looks better and loads faster.

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/ comment.html?entrynum=2685#yourcomment
all the ac's have kicked off
good 2 day run kept temp perfect 72 on the inside

Quoting 523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

best left off the blogs
morning cooler this am high of 70 today maybe 68


The better thing to do would be to take it to our own blogs. IMO
521 524 thankyou
Quoting llpj04:
Is there anyone watching the rotation in St John Parish Louisiana???
Im in Ponchatoula
I just left Ponchatoula for work this morning. That was some serious rain..
Quoting 511. Stormwatch247:

That latest GFS run is reminding me of Tropical Storms Andrea (June 2013) and Debby (June 2012) in the GOM. Both storms were in the same general area of the NE Gulf. We will see if climatology and history repeats itself this year!

And both even hit the same town. And I was there both times! I have some really good footage from both. Neither were too bad to us. I honestly wouldn't mind another Andrea. We need the rain anyways.
Rain bullseye over the entire state of Louisiana the next 5-7 days. Lawdy.


Quoting 530. captainmark:

I just left Ponchatoula for work this morning. That was some serious rain..

Yeah they said 3500 people are out of electricity & several wrecks in St. John's Parish
Quoting 526. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




thanks for your quick response. If you have the ability to see the rotation and it goes to the surface please put a warning out here in the blog. Thanks
For those El Nino wishcasters, the 3.4 region has dropped to 0.475. Sorrrrrry.

The Gulf of Mexico has warmed quite a bit the past 7 days, gearing up for the June 1st start date :o)

Quoting 534. StormWx:

Rain bullseye over the entire state of Louisiana the next 5-7 days. Lawdy.





Oh MAN just what I didn't want to see. If that happens for 5 -7 days then bye bye garden!
Quoting 536. StormWx:

For those El Nino wishcasters, the 3.4 region has dropped to 0.475. Sorrrrrry.




El Nino is likely to develop, but I'm firmly outside the "Super El Nino" camp. Probably something more akin to 2006 or 2009 levels.
wdsu said that the rain is falling in some places in St. John Parish Louisiana-----
15 inches an hour and that is radar estimated
Quoting llpj04:
wdsu said that the rain is falling in some places in St. John Parish Louisiana-----
15 inches an hour and that is radar estimated
that's not good for anybody's garden. The next few days do not look much better.
542. ryang
Quoting 539. KoritheMan:



El Nino is likely to develop, but I'm firmly outside the "Super El Nino" camp. Probably something more akin to 2006 or 2009 levels.


How strong was the El Nino in 2002 compared to 2006/2009?
Quoting 536. StormWx:

For those El Nino wishcasters, the 3.4 region has dropped to 0.475. Sorrrrrry.


Is almost the same since April lol
Quoting StormWx:
For those El Nino wishcasters, the 3.4 region has dropped to 0.475. Sorrrrrry.


Flipping and Flopping.
Will it, Won't it ?
What does it all mean ????

I think I will hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
So I'll be ready, whenever you guys make your minds up. :):))
545. MahFL
Quoting 540. llpj04:

wdsu said that the rain is falling in some places in St. John Parish Louisiana-----
15 inches an hour and that is radar estimated


New flash flood warning for there, with upto 6 inches fallen and maybe 3 more, those places normally flood with 2 inches of rain let alone up to 9.
Forecast for September notice the warmest water is in the central Atlantic
Quoting 516. Sfloridacat5:



For the past two days we've had strong T storm development just south and west of my location (55 mph winds and some minor damage to the south). We had lots of thunder and a few sprinkles, but that's it.

But it shows the rainy season is here. Maybe
today we'll get the T storms to form over our neighborhood.
yes im going over 2 weeks or more without rain, my garden sure could use some with this heat..maybe today
Over 1.5c!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sarcasm...
Cool pic
Quoting pottery:

Flipping and Flopping.
Will it, Won't it ?
What does it all mean ????

I think I will hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
So I'll be ready, whenever you guys make your minds up. :):))


It will, it means doom, drought for some, rain for others. Boogity Boogity.
From Live Science..



Brilliant Colors of Alaska Wildfire Seen from Space

Quoting 514. Autistic2:
Well now, been lurking all winter. Seams the "game" may be on early this year. Been studding for years now. Her is my prediction and Hopefully I am wrong.
Atlantic Basin
15 named storms
9 canes
3 Major
1 Cat 5
2 canes will make land fall in US and one will be cat 2 or greater.

JFV will be banned twice and I will upset at least one blogger on accident! And Gro will finally tell us all which of the three ships he came over on, My guess The Nina.



Crow may be served on Dec. 1


I would imagine good Gro accompanying Columbus on the Santa Maria as his second.
Quoting 549. Gearsts:




It has not gone down to negative since mid April.
Quoting 536. StormWx:

For those El Nino wishcasters, the 3.4 region has dropped to 0.475. Sorrrrrry.





put a fork in it all ready when it come two EL nino you are vary annyouing bloger
gfs some of amandas leftover moisture creeps up into arizona
GFS seems to converging on Wednesday/Thursday for deep tropical moisture to ride north out of the Caribbean and E-Pac. What is concerning is that once the moisture sets up across the East Gulf and FL it may hang around for quite sometime producing some pretty hefty rainfall totals the first 10 days of June across FL.




This is a GFS precip accum for 16 days. This is one heck of a heavy rain signal being painted by this model across FL.

Quoting 556. Tazmanian:




put a fork in it all ready when it come two EL nino you are vary annyouing bloger


Good morning Taz.
Quoting 470. wunderkidcayman:

In August we will be having our 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley
In September we will be having our 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Ivan
Both Hurricanes came to Cayman back in 2004


Wow, 10 years have already passed since the 2004 monster Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne!

After Ivan slid past Jamaica, and slammed the Cayman Islands, it moved into the GOM. Hurricane Ivan made landfall near Gulf Shores, AL, and passed between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL. It hit in the middle of the night, and I will always remember all the wind, noise and crashes of breaking windows, and bricks falling! Never realized how much a big well-constructed apt. building can seem to "hum and move/sway" during a major hurricane! Still unbelievable. We all woke up to massive devastation the next morning.... especially hard hit, east of Mobile Bay to Pensacola!

Cannot imagine being on an island in the Caribbean - during a major hurricane! Do you run for the hills or find the highest mountain ..... to hide from the surge and winds? WoW.
561. SuzK
Quoting 360. StormWx:



Are you serious Scott? Thats a 384 hour model, or 16 days out. It will never verify. Nothing means business that far out. Lets see what models mean business on the 5-7 day range bubba. Lawdy.


If I had a nickel for every 300+ hours-in-advance forecast that DID actually pan out...I'd be on the beach right now. When did courtesy go out of style? You talk like a whippersnapper, all the time. Respect the process brother, as well as your fellow man.
Quoting 536. StormWx:

For those El Nino wishcasters, the 3.4 region has dropped to 0.475. Sorrrrrry.




Declaration of El Nino requires a 3 month average, so the fact that the daily 3.4 region temperature anomaly is .475 means very little.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT PASS AT 0230 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRI AS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
SUBTROPICS. HIGH PRES E OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND MERGE WITH BROAD E ATLC RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 29N.
GFS SHOWING GULF OF HONDURAS PULSING TO 20-25 KT EACH NIGHT AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS W ATLC. LATEST GFS FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF
FROM PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN

MOVING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND MUCH CLOSER IN LINE
WITH ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 63W WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH THU AND INTO W CARIBBEAN FRI.
Quoting 561. SuzK:



If I had a nickel for every 300 hours-in-advance forecast that DID actually pan out...I'd be on the beach right now. When did courtesy go out of style? You talk like a whippersnapper, all the time. Respect the process brother, as well as your fellow man.


That was a precip accum for 16 days not a model showing a system at day 16. What this does is give a general indication of a potential weather pattern that may begin to set in.
565. FOREX
Quoting 563. stormwatcherCI:

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT PASS AT 0230 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRI AS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
SUBTROPICS. HIGH PRES E OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND MERGE WITH BROAD E ATLC RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 29N.
GFS SHOWING GULF OF HONDURAS PULSING TO 20-25 KT EACH NIGHT AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS W ATLC. LATEST GFS FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF
FROM PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN

MOVING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND MUCH CLOSER IN LINE
WITH ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 63W WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH THU AND INTO W CARIBBEAN FRI.


Crazy how for two weeks the GFS shows a potential system and then it drops it completely. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if the 12Z shows the system again.lol
Quoting Naga5000:


Declaration of El Nino requires a 3 month average, so the fact that the daily 3.4 region temperature anomaly is .475 means very little.



Yep I know that, try telling that to post 564 lol
Quoting 460. nonblanche:



"I'm dyslexic. I can't tell right from wrong."
I thought you could tell right from wrong, but you get it reversed..Isnt that what dyslexia is.?
Any invest or system that enters the gulf will have barely warm enough SSTs of 26C supporting it and a whole ton of shear. Hard to believe any of 16 day models at this point but it is interesting the one model that does show increased moisture. Since there are a half dozen models, do any others show this? All i ever see from the one blogger is one model.



Interesting Vorticity near Honduras.

570. FOREX
@StormTrackerScott, is it just a mirage, or is there a slight swirl at about 11N 78W? Seems like there is, but it could just be the way things are moving all around down there.
571. 1344
Amanda's convection is refiring north of the LLC. Still, this is typical of many EPAC majors that after they fall to around 55 knts or so, they re-fire convection. DMAX may be a factor as well.
Quoting 570. FOREX:

@StormTrackerScott, is it just a mirage, or is there a slight swirl at about 11N 78W? Seems like there is, but it could just be the way things are moving all around down there.


Looks more like a wave axis moving WNW. Beleive it or not it's this upper low over Lousiana that pulls a monsoon trough up from the E-Pac into the Caribbean.



Here's the upper low that pulls the tropical moisture north next week.

01E/TS/A/CX
Quoting 572. StormTrackerScott:



Looks more like a wave axis moving WNW. Beleive it or not it's this upper low over Lousiana that pulls a monsoon trough up from the E-Pac into the Caribbean.



Here's the upper low that pulls the tropical moisture north next week.


Isn't that low always there.
HR 72 SURFACE FORECAST

Quoting 574. Gearsts:

Isn't that low always there.


It is but sometimes it can drift north into the Caribbean and spin up this time of year. I don't think this will be the case this year as too much land interaction with Central America early next week but one thing is for certain both the Euro and GFS sends this tropical moisture to FL mid next week.
Quoting 559. StormTrackerScott:



Good morning Taz.



good AM
Quoting 568. StormWx:

Any invest or system that enters the gulf will have barely warm enough SSTs of 26C supporting it and a whole ton of shear. Hard to believe any of 16 day models at this point but it is interesting the one model that does show increased moisture. Since there are a half dozen models, do any others show this? All i ever see from the one blogger is one model.



Have you checked the STS?
6" to 8" of rain so far today across southern Lousiana. Impressive.

if not a cyclone maybe end up with a mini hawaiian express some kind of mid-low level trough lined up to pump s. carib. moisture up into the se.
Going to be a wet day for our fellow respected blogger today. Could be some flooding in Nola later as these storms are very slow movers.

Quoting 565. FOREX:



Crazy how for two weeks the GFS shows a potential system and then it drops it completely. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if the 12Z shows the system again.lol

Technically GFS didn't drop the system but rather kept it close to the Yucatan then over the Yucatan the into GOM.

Even if GFS did indeed we all know ( or should know ) that GFS has a history with forecasting a system in mid to long range then dropping it in mid range and then brining it back in short range then development of a system starts

Quoting 568. StormWx:

Any invest or system that enters the gulf will have barely warm enough SSTs of 26C supporting it and a whole ton of shear. Hard to believe any of 16 day models at this point but it is interesting the one model that does show increased moisture. Since there are a half dozen models, do any others show this? All i ever see from the one blogger is one model.




Quoting 569. StormWx:

Interesting Vorticity near Honduras.



It would help if you would stop using shear maps and vort maps that's from Oct of 2010 and for you to use map for today of 2014

Quoting 579. StormTrackerScott:

6" to 8" of rain so far today across southern Lousiana. Impressive.




Yes it is, and flash flood watches have been issued from LA, across MS, AL, to NW Florida.
GEOS-5 is starting to close off those blobs into storms toward the end of the run now. First run showing blob in the Gulf of Mexico trying to wrap up into a TS June 6th..



Yesterday it was forming a weak near STD off the Carolinas. Today that looks more like an extratropical storm east of the NE around June 2nd...


Quoting 580. islander101010:

if not a cyclone maybe end up with a mini hawaiian express some kind of mid-low level trough lined up to pump s. carib. moisture up into the se.


I saw a set up like this in June of 2005 which was Orlando's second wettest month ever with over 17" of rain. This "could" be a similiar set up.
Here is the current vort map

Good vort in SW Caribbean



I feel like the GFS is a little ambitious with these 324 hr 2m surface temperatures...



100s for the Houston area? Really? In the second week of June?
Quoting 587. nofailsafe:

I feel like the GFS is a little ambitious with these 324 hr 2m surface temperatures...



100s for the Houston area? Really? In the second week of June?
long hot summer ahead
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Here is the current vort map

Good vort in SW Caribbean





Thank you, it played tricks on me.
Well, there's this. If the picture shows. I'm never sure. lol

Quoting nofailsafe:
I feel like the GFS is a little ambitious with these 324 hr 2m surface temperatures...



100s for the Houston area? Really? In the second week of June?


Yuck! Good thing we did get some rain. 2.57 at my house all together. 2" coming in about half an hour this morning. :)
592. JRRP
Quoting StormWx:
Interesting Vorticity near Honduras.


2010
Quoting 589. StormWx:



Thank you, it played tricks on me.

No not really I saw what you were using CIMSS haven't updated their PREDICT (PRE-INVEST) page since 2010 not sure why
But from now on just use the regular tropics page

Link
Quoting 592. JRRP:


2010

Don't worry he now knows that

Quoting 560. Stormwatch247:
 
during a major hurricane! Do you run for the hills or find the highest mountain ..... to hide from the surge and winds? WoW.
Smart locals know where the caves are.
Has this video been shown here. If not, here goes it.



Tornado - Watford, ND on 5/26/2014. Warning - STRONG LANGUAGE! We were afraid for our lives, so, yes, we swore. A lot. You have been warned!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Has this video been shown here. If not, here goes it.



Tornado - Watford, ND on 5/26/2014. Warning - STRONG LANGUAGE! We were afraid for our lives, so, yes, we swore. A lot. You have been warned!

Morning, Aussie. It has been posted before but still a pretty scary thing to watch.
Upper level low and it's upper trof centered N of Hispaniola now now moving out moving E bound

This could ease the upper level winds between the upper ridge and the upper low and promote the ridge to move more E bound and take grasp of the W Carib with lower upper winds
maya angelou passed today at 86....may she serenade angels with her poetry

You may write me down in history
With your bitter, twisted lies,
You may tread me in the very dirt
But still, like dust, I'll rise.

Does my sassiness upset you?
Why are you beset with gloom?
'Cause I walk like I've got oil wells
Pumping in my living room.

Just like moons and like suns,
With the certainty of tides,
Just like hopes springing high,
Still I'll rise.

Did you want to see me broken?
Bowed head and lowered eyes?
Shoulders falling down like teardrops.
Weakened by my soulful cries.

Does my haughtiness offend you?
Don't you take it awful hard
'Cause I laugh like I've got gold mines
Diggin' in my own back yard.

You may shoot me with your words,
You may cut me with your eyes,
You may kill me with your hatefulness,
But still, like air, I'll rise.

Does my sexiness upset you?
Does it come as a surprise
That I dance like I've got diamonds
At the meeting of my thighs?

Out of the huts of history's shame
I rise
Up from a past that's rooted in pain
I rise
I'm a black ocean, leaping and wide,
Welling and swelling I bear in the tide.
Leaving behind nights of terror and fear
I rise
Into a daybreak that's wondrously clear
I rise
Bringing the gifts that my ancestors gave,
I am the dream and the hope of the slave.
I rise
I rise
I rise.
Looks like the ECMWF and GFS is showing a trough-split off the East Coast in a couple days. By the way the ECMWF still doesn't show anything in the Western Caribbean. Neat little ULL over Louisiana.





Quoting 567. hydrus:

I thought you could tell right from wrong, but you get it reversed..Isnt that what dyslexia is.?
5 out of 4 people have it..
Morning, all. It's been raining quite a bit here in Baton Rouge overnight and this morning. Sporadic tornado warnings, but the ones I've seen have been to the south and east, unless I missed something while sleeping :-)


Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Upper level low and it's upper trof centered N of Hispaniola now now moving out moving E bound

This could ease the upper level winds between the upper ridge and the upper low and promote the ridge to move more E bound and take grasp of the W Carib with lower upper winds


Can you show me where this upper level low north of Hispaniola is located on the surface map? I can't find it.

How will we know when an El Niño has arrived?
Author: Michelle L'Heureux
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
If you pick up a stack of journals on ENSO you will quickly discover that most scientists define ENSO based on “seasons” ( 3-month averages) of oceanic and atmospheric indicators in the tropical Pacific. Why is that?

See this figure of the weekly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (departures from average) in the Niño-3.4 region, an area in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean? The values wobble around a bit.

plot of weekly SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific ENSO 3.4 region
Weekly difference from average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific since spring 2012. Weekly values have a lot of weather-related "wobble." Graph by NOAA Climate.gov, based on CPC data.
In fact, if you were to look at weekly values based on atmospheric pressure anomalies at the surface (the Equatorial Southern Oscillation index), they bounce around a lot more. This time series is clearly “noisy.”

plot of Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index data for 2013-present
The atmospheric indicator of ENSO, shown here by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index since early 2012, has even greater short-term variability than sea surface temperature anomalies. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov, based on CPC data.
The reason for this noise is that there are other tropical weather systems and climate patterns that move on faster timescales (“higher frequency” patterns) and are distinct from ENSO. Such climate phenomenon, like the Madden Julian Oscillation, can change the atmosphere and even raise or lower sea surface temperatures. These high-frequency changes appear in the graphs’ weekly bumps and wiggles. We don’t want to get tricked and declare ENSO based on faster-changing weather and climate!

So this is why we define ENSO based on more slowly changing, seasonal values that average out and reduce the noise. In fact NOAA’s official index for ENSO, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), does just that: it is the three-month running average of SST departures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific. Look how nice and smooth it is!


Seasonal (3-month) averages of difference from average sea surface temperature from spring 2012 (beginning with the season centered on May) through spring 2014. Seasonal averages remove the "noise" of weather from the climate signal. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov, based on CPC data.
El Niño “events” versus El Niño “conditions”

However, the folks at NOAA CPC and the IRI issue their ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and update the ENSO Alert System every month. If it’s issued monthly, then will it take three months to say El Niño has arrived?

The short answer is no. Knowing that ENSO is a coupled climate pattern between the atmosphere and ocean (see earlier post) gives us an ability to provide information on a monthly timescale. We will declare the onset of El Niño conditions (not yet a full-blown El Niño event) when three criteria are met:

Departures in the Niño-3.4 index equal to or exceeding +0.5C for a single month.
The tropical Pacific atmosphere should be consistent with El Niño. In particular, rainfall should be enhanced near the Date Line and suppressed near Indonesia, and the surface winds across parts of the equatorial Pacific should be anomalously westerly.
A forecast that the ONI will equal or exceed +0.5C for several seasons in a row.
Have there been cases when the ONI exceeded +0.5C for a couple seasons in a row, but El Niño was never declared? Yes, this happened most recently in 2012, when two seasons were warm enough to reach El Niño levels. But the atmosphere and, in particular, the pattern of tropical convection resembled the opposite state of El Niño—La Niña. So, an El Niño Advisory was never issued.

By the way, what is the ENSO Alert System, and why is the Niño-3.4 index used? We’ll focus another blog post on this system and why it was implemented.
Quoting 595. rayduray2013:


Smart locals know where the caves are.



A cave sounds like a safe place to ride out a hurricane on a tropical island, as long as it is not low-lying :)


When it comes to Hurricanes: As they always say ... RUN FROM THE WATER, HIDE FROM THE WIND~!


Quoting LAbonbon:
Morning, all. It's been raining quite a bit here in Baton Rouge overnight and this morning. Sporadic tornado warnings, but the ones I've seen have been to the south and east, unless I missed something while sleeping :-)



Good morning, Bonnie. So far, it looks like the main energy from this trough is centered north of Houma, where the heaviest rain and tornado warnings are the most common. I have yet to hear of any confirmed tornadoes, just lots of rotation indicated on radar. This almost looks like tropical storm after landfall situation, and it doesn't look like it's going anywhere fast,
Global Sea Surface Temperatures Increase to Extraordinary +1.25 C Anomaly as El Nino Tightens Grip on Pacific
On May 22nd, 2014, global sea surface temperature anomalies spiked to an amazing +1.25 degrees Celsius above the, already warmer than normal, 1979 to 2000 average. This departure is about 1.7 degrees C above 1880 levels — an extraordinary reading that signals the world may well be entering a rapid warming phase.
I picked up almost 2 inches of rain with yesterday storms.It's muggy outside now and it's suppose to storm again today.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like the ECMWF and GFS is showing a trough-split off the East Coast in a couple days. By the way the ECMWF still doesn't show anything in the Western Caribbean. Neat little ULL over Louisiana.






The models are doing their usual flip flops, with the GFS dropping the low that was supposed to develop in the SW Caribbean and the Euro never really being on board with it, even in the short term. That low in the Atlantic appears to be forming off a cold front that's been slowly advancing south. As the ridge over the eastern US finally retrogrades east, I expect that low will also slowly dissipate. Hard to tell though, since conditions in the Atlantic are a little chaotic right now.
The models are doing their usual flip flops, with the GFS dropping the low that was supposed to develop in the SW Caribbean and the Euro never really being on board with it, even in the short term. That low in the Atlantic appears to be forming off a cold front that's been slowly advancing south. As the ridge over the eastern US finally retrogrades east, I expect that low will also slowly dissipate. Hard to tell though, since conditions in the Atlantic are a little chaotic right now.

models are gods.....
Quoting 608. sar2401:


Good morning, Bonnie. So far, it looks like the main energy from this trough is centered north of Houma, where the heaviest rain and tornado warnings are the most common. I have yet to hear of any confirmed tornadoes, just lots of rotation indicated on radar. This almost looks like tropical storm after landfall situation, and it doesn't look like it's going anywhere fast,


Morning, Sar. Haven't been on this blog in a few days - I see there's been a little bit of tropical excitement. I haven't seen anything that's indicated any reported tornadoes either. Lots of rain, and overnight some lightning and window-rattling thunder. So far the airport's reporting 2.74 inches of rain. But that's on the other side of the parish from me. PWSs closest to my location are showing approximately 3 to just under 4 inches, with more to come.

I got a chuckle this morning around 4 or so when there was a warning up for the Killian/Springfield/Lake Maurepas area...I know it's just standard language in the warnings, but there are no basements to seek shelter in...

Quoting washingtonian115:
I picked up almost 2 inches of rain with yesterday storms.It's muggy outside now and it's suppose to storm again today.


I also got about 2". Some hail as well but haven't had a chance to check rental garden because of other duties. Home had no hail damage to anything.

Next week GFS looks like typical midsummer heat for Tuesday- ???. Decent backdoor front and marine layer tomorrow and Friday first though.. that'll be a relief.
Quoting 611. sar2401:


The models are doing their usual flip flops, with the GFS dropping the low that was supposed to develop in the SW Caribbean and the Euro never really being on board with it, even in the short term. That low in the Atlantic appears to be forming off a cold front that's been slowly advancing south. As the ridge over the eastern US finally retrogrades east, I expect that low will also slowly dissipate. Hard to tell though, since conditions in the Atlantic are a little chaotic right now.
I don't expect anything tropical to come from it, just making a note to the pattern the 2 models are picking up on. Maybe a brief tropical transition after the low cuts off from the trough and meanders before getting picked up by another trough. GOM conditions look hostile at the moment, things could change though, but like I said yesterday not expecting much, maybe an Andrea or Debby like system.
Quoting 601. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like the ECMWF and GFS is showing a trough-split off the East Coast in a couple days. By the way the ECMWF still doesn't show anything in the Western Caribbean. Neat little ULL over Louisiana.









I don't understand, you're saying nothing is developing but the GFS has never predicted anything in the time period that you provided model images for. The GFS, and Ensembles are picking up on something close to June 4th-5th. The 06Z probability figures (from the GFS ensemble have near 35% chance of pressures less than 1000mb out in the S. Gulf. At this point in the game Ensembles are much more valuable than the operational models.


Quoting 605. sar2401:



Can you show me where this upper level low north of Hispaniola is located on the surface map? I can't find it.



Are you serious really
I'm sorry for saying this but you can't be that foolish

Okaydokay
UPPER LEVEL LOW 200mb= high in the sky
SURFACE CHART 850mb-1000mb= surface near to ground or on ground
So
UPPER
LEVEL
Would
Not
Be
The
Same
As
That
On
A
Surface
Chart
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Ok ok upper level low is centered around 25N 68W
You can clearly see it on water vapour imagery
Quoting 616. boltdwright:




I don't understand, you're saying nothing is developing but the GFS has never predicted anything in the time period that you provided model images for. The GFS, and Ensembles are picking up on something close to June 4th-5th. The 06Z probability figures (from the GFS ensemble have near 35% chance of pressures less than 1000mb out in the S. Gulf. At this point in the game Ensembles are much more valuable than the operational models.



No I'm saying the ECMWF isn't showing anything even out to 240 hrs. I posted the 2 time frames from both models to strictly show the system off the East Coast. I understand where you are coming at with the ensembles though, but the time frame is still past 200 hrs.
Quoting 611. sar2401:


The models are doing their usual flip flops, with the GFS dropping the low that was supposed to develop in the SW Caribbean and the Euro never really being on board with it, even in the short term. That low in the Atlantic appears to be forming off a cold front that's been slowly advancing south. As the ridge over the eastern US finally retrogrades east, I expect that low will also slowly dissipate. Hard to tell though, since conditions in the Atlantic are a little chaotic right now.
I believe is more probable a trough split than the one in the Caribbean as the water is hotter and usually storms form easily like that ex Chris of 2012 and Gert and Jose of 2011.
Quoting 622. allancalderini:

I believe is more probable a trough split than the one in the Caribbean as the water is hotter and usually storms form easily like that ex Chris of 2012 and Gert and Jose of 2011.
just saw on mikes page..the FIM model from NOAA is bullish also on a gulf system rough same timeframe as the gfs model....we'll see what happens.............
624. flsky
Can't decide if this is gallows laughter or they're rather clueless idiots.
Quoting 596. AussieStorm:

Has this video been shown here. If not, here goes it.



Tornado - Watford, ND on 5/26/2014. Warning - STRONG LANGUAGE! We were afraid for our lives, so, yes, we swore. A lot. You have been warned!
625. flsky
Can't decide if this is gallows laughter or they're rather clueless idiots.
Quoting 596. AussieStorm:

Has this video been shown here. If not, here goes it.



Tornado - Watford, ND on 5/26/2014. Warning - STRONG LANGUAGE! We were afraid for our lives, so, yes, we swore. A lot. You have been warned!
Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

ALZ033-034-281930-
BIBB AL-PERRY AL-
142 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN
BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 137 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HEIBERGER...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
HARRISBURG...
MERTZ...
EOLINE...
LOW GAP...


&&

LAT...LON 3300 8738 3301 8737 3301 8732 3302 8732
3303 8719 3274 8716 3272 8731 3295 8742
3300 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 166DEG 23KT 3281 8726

$$


Quoting 464. sar2401:


Actually, I am dyslexic, and I do get compass coordinates backwards in writing, so that's not a fib. OTOH, as long as I can see the sun, I can tell you exactly where the four prime coordinates are. I don't know why the two experiences are so different.


I have... not dyslexia, but something related to executive function and number handling of anything more complicated than basic arithmetic. (And I didn't get the times tables to 12 memorized until sometime in high school, that was a struggle too.)

I think it's related to my notoriously bad sense of direction. Can't tell you how many times I've walked into closets visiting new houses.
I suspect lead exposure in my first year of life. (Everyone else in my generation are real estate success stories, engineers, musicians or machinists. I'm the math cripple. :) Heck even my brother, adopted, is a decades long blackjack dealer who only puts in days in management because he has to, he's happier playing with the numbers on the cards.


I was talking to my brother in Reno and he said the Washoe Zephyr was blowing pretty good there. You getting much wind by your place?


Yeah, dangit. And the cottonwood looks like an inch of snow on the ground, spreading powdery mildew and blackspot onto the Lady Banksia roses; I learned my lesson two years ago about leaving potted seedlings where the fluff can get at 'em. I don't know if they get microlacerations from the high wind and fluff fibers, or if it's carrying damping off fungus.

Let's not get started on the sneezing. Or how we can't put the composite roofing tiles up until the wind dies down. It was blowing some this morning still, but died down. Stuff is watered now.
Why is the ocean temperature warmer right now?
My friend and I got into an argument over the semantics of using "climate change" and "global warming". I have been using them interchangeably in conversations. She says "climate change" means something different than the other and one is involving solely human causes to pollute and warm the upper atmosphere which, I think, is called "green house warming".
Would you be so kind as to straighten me out as to the causes of the earths warming temperatures and the proper names for them.
Quoting 602. PalmBeachWeather:

5 out of 4 people have it..


Hey palm beach i went thru the tornado also i lived on king st and was delivering paper at the time. saw your post about living in xenia the other day