WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Alpha sets all-time record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:43 PM GMT on October 22, 2005

Ever since the formation of two major hurricanes in July made it clear that the Hurricane Season of 2005 was going to challenge 1933 as the busiest season ever, I've been expecting to see the words "Tropical Storm Alpha" emblazoned on a hurricane tracking chart. Well, we've got the record now. The formation of Tropical Storm Alpha, the 22nd storm of the season, now makes 2005 the busiest hurricane season of all time. Still, it looks really strange to see the words "Tropical Storm Alpha" on the hurricane tracking charts, and gives a surreal cast to Hurricane Season of 2005 as we approach the Halloween season.

In keeping with the season, we have two very scary storms to talk about. The eye of very dangerous Category 2 Hurricane Wilma is moving offshore the Yucatan mainland this evening, a little earlier than I expected. This makes it more likely Wilma will be a bit stronger at landfall in Florida Monday--perhaps a strong Category 2 with 105 mph winds. We are not good at making intensity forecasts, and Wilma could easily be a Category stronger--or weaker. The argument for a weaker hurricane goes like this: Wilma's inner eyewall has collapsed, leaving an outer eyewall with diameter 80 miles in place. When an inner eyewall collapses like that, it usually takes at least a day for the eyewall to reform, and by a day from now, Wilma will start experiencing increased wind shear which will weaken her down to a Category 1.

The argument for a stronger hurricane goes like this: Wilma still has a large, intact circulation, and is still a Category 2 hurricane. She will not follow the usual normals (since this is the Hurricane Season of 2005, after all), and will re-intensify quickly over the warm waters that nurtured her rise to Category 5 status this week. By late Sunday, she will be a Category 3 hurricane again, and large enough and fast moving enough that the shear affecting her will be unable to significantly weaken her. Wilma will make landfall as a major hurricane on Florida's west coast.

So, both scenarios are plausible, and Florida must be prepared for the arrival of a major hurricane on Monday. Landfall anywhere between Sarasota and the Keys is possible.

The remainder of my 1 pm post appears below, mostly unchanged.

The most extreme winds of the eyewall have now been battering Cozumel and the mainland Yucatan Peninsula for over 30 hours. Sustained winds of 100 - 140 mph affecting a built-up resort area like Cozumel/Cancun for so long must have done extreme damage. Wilma has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Still, the damage to Mexico will increase today as structures already weakened by 30 hours of relentless winds continue to receive another 12 hours of stress.

Conditions in Cancun
Wunderblogger LizinCancun reported yesterday on conditions in Cancun:

"We evacuated our home in Cancun yesterday and came 200 miles west to Merida. Our home sits about 100 feet away from the beach. The waves were crashing over our 6 foot tall sea wall yesterday before we left and destroyed the palapa that sits about 10 feet out in the water. We fully expect our home and all our belongings to be gone. We lost contact with all of our friends that stayed, cell and land lines are down of course as is power. We just talked with a friend that says the power is out, phones only working when the generators are running to pump out all the water. He said the hotel is blowing apart (not in the hotel zone) and all you can see when looking outside is a wall of water blowing sideways and pieces of things being shredded by the high winds, some huge."


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the week. Image generated by NASA's TRMM rainfall measuring satellite.

A deluge of rain
Rainfall amounts in Mexico from Wilma have been extreme. Isla Mujeres, just offshore from Cancun, has reported almost 35" of rain over the past 1 1/2 days, and at one point reported 4" of rain in one hour between 2 and 3 am EDT today. Rainfall amounts in Cuba have not been nearly so extreme--at least in the areas of western Cuba that are still reporting data. San Juan y Martinez measured 10.7 cm (4.2 inches) of rain the past 24 hours, and storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 cm (7 inches) have been measured in Cuba's westernmost province. Grand Cayman received five inches, Jamaica's Kingston airport eight inches, and Belize four inches. The north coast of Honduras has had numerous locations receive ten inches of rain, with one unofficial report of 20 inches. Rainfall in Haiti reached 8 - 10 inches, and, triggered flash floods that killed 11 people.

How will Wilma affect Florida?
The latest 8 am EDT (12Z) model runs are in, and continue to agree on the basic scenario that Wilma will move offshore the Yucatan tonight as a weak Category 2 hurricane. On Sunday, the storm will move slowly north and then northeast as westerly winds from a strong trough of low pressure start affecting the storm. There is about an 18-hour window of opportunity for Wilma to re-intensify to a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday. By Sunday night, the Wilma will begin to accelerate, and wind shear will begin to weaken the storm. By Monday morning, Wilma will cross the west coast of Florida between Fort Myers and the Keys as a Category 1, 2, or 3 hurricane. My best guess is that Wilma will be a 110-mph Category 2 hurricane hitting near Marco. Storm surges tend to be worse with large and faster moving hurricanes, so I would expect a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, 10 to 16 feet, in and south of Marco, causing very heavy damage in that city. Fortunately, the area south of Marco is primarily uninhabited--the Everglades swamp. However, if Wilma comes ashore north of Naples--or further south near the Keys--storm surge flood damage in those areas could easily reach billions of dollars. Storm surge flooding should be only 2 - 4 feet on the east coast of Florida, where wind damage is the primary threat.


Figure 2. Storm surge map for southwest Florida.

Wilma's winds and rain
Wilma will be moving too fast to dump more than 5 - 10 inches of rain. The rain will be concentrated on the north side of the hurricane, since there will be a cold front there that will trigger more condensation. Areas to the north of the eye's passage will see winds a full Category--25 to 30 mph--lower than those on the south. This is because the storm's high rate of forward motion, near 25 - 30 mph, will add to the windspeeds seen on the south side of the Wilma's counterclockwise rotation, and subtract on the north side. Since the storm will be moving so fast, the duration of hurricane force winds will be just a few hours.

After Florida, then what?
After crossing Florida, Wilma should bring tropical storm force winds to the northern Bahama Islands, but not hurricane force winds. Wilma should pass close enough to North Carolina's Outer Banks to bring 40 mph winds there. Wilma is not expected to bring high winds to New England, but could bring 50 mph winds to Nova Scotia five days from now.

Alpha
Alpha has formed 200 miles southeast of Hispanolia. Long range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico shows some increasing spiral banding and echo intensity, and satellite imagery shows a good outflow channel developing to the southeast. Wind shear of about 10 knots is eroding the northwest portion of the storm.

Given the storm's expected track over Haiti, the 8 - 12 inches of rain expected may cause heavy loss of life in that country due to the inability of the deforested hillsides to handle flood waters. The Dominican Republic, which still has 70% of its forest cover, should fare relatively well.

I'll be back in the morning with the latest.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Welcome to the record books!
Who knows, gamma, the way things are going you might even get a storm named after you this year. Wow.

Anyone...What are the chances that Wilma and Alpha will do a tropical tango off the east coast of Florida on Monday night or Tuesday? What are some possible scenarios?
Wilma's eye is now off the coast of Yucatan according to the lastest radar pic at of Cancun.
I live in Islamorada and am stuck up here in NY. I am trying to understand what kind of storm surge could be expected for upper keys -oceanside. Can anyone help me?
Hey Conch,

I've been reading several blogs, and the Reader's Digest version is something like a 10-12' surge here in Naples, 4-6' for Marco Island (area), and 2-4' in the Keys. At this point, everybody is still guessing, of course, and freely admitting it.
conch - you should be able to find out that information at www.cbs4.com/ -their live streaming video coverage is starting now - 7:00p.m.
Addendum to previous post: The last I heard, Jim Cantore (shudder) was still in Key Largo, so that doesn't bode well for the Keys.
Thank you all. Am on cbs4.com now.
Greetings from Port St. Lucie. Got my shutters up, and getting things organized. Friday someone posted a link that was a Google map with all the computer models on it (selectable on or off individually). Anyone around that has the link to that?
I hope wilma is no more than a 2 at FL landfall. And that she moves quickly. Frances proved that a slow moving 'cane is a real PITA. But then again, all canes are.
DIRECT FROM COZUMEL, 6pm CST Saturday.

Spoke to one friend by phone just now. Cozumel's had about 30 in. of rain but this afternoon the water IS going down. Has gone down about 5 inches today. This is a VERY good sign for the island as it means the sewer system has miraculously not been as taxes as we feared it would be. Police and military are out and about in the streets telling everyone to stay indoors until the entire system is gone and the water in the streets goes down further. This afternoon, for the last 3 hrs or so, it's been drizzle, gust, drizzle, gust. On HER street anyway (corner Felipe Angeles and Morelos), no electric posts down (though she does not have elec), only the pole to which her phone line is connecte to is in the street - and her phone is still working! None of the other 26 phone numbers I've been calling are working.
Anyone give a guess what the seas will be like off Cape Cod when Wilma passes offshore on Tuesday? Thanks
Scribblin....I've lost the battle with hubby and will be riding things out in Naples. Nobody in our entire neighborhood is leaving, nor are any of our friends and family out here in GG Estates. I was the lone wolf...the Cassandra...and the bottom line is I won't leave without the hubby. Argh, fool for love....
WeatherWeasel

The link was http://compooter.org/sandbox/code/google/hurricane/atlantic/?2005s24

I'm going to attempt to make it a link in this post, but I've never done it before.

Link
In the downtown area of Cancun, our friends just told us that they have atleast 2 meters of water, but it seems to be leaving quickly. Not sure if this is rain or surge.

I'm glad this is almost over....
GoldenGate...LOL

With a storm outside, you don't want one IN the house as well. Just batten down the hatches, remove all potential missiles from the yard, put up the plywood and turn on the Jimmy Buffet. You know the routine. :)

Some folks are predicting that Wilma could go Cat 3 on us by Mon. a.m. That's ugly, but doable. Cat 4 is the signal to start looking for a shelter, I think. We'll probably be okay, though.
i hav updated my blog
Thanks, Scribblin. I'm almost convinced of that...heh heh
thanks Scribblin....by zooming the map, I see that my house is about 20 miles north of the direct path, lol. I was better off not knowing. *heavy sigh*
20. zl
Weather weasel, I think you're looking for this:

http://www.heidelbergerconsulting.com/hurrimap/
21. zl
WeatherWeasel, don't focus on the center line, it could hit anywhere within the cone.
Here is quick recap of the 2005 hurricane season.

http://www.nasa.gov/mpeg/136417main_hurricanes2005_Wide_320x240.mpeg
GG Sorry you lost the battle Take care We'll be heading out in morning. Listening to Jimmy on our way. Good luck and prayers for all of us in the path
I'm not focusing on the path, just trying to stay light. I run a commo center, and will be working through the storm starting tomorrow evening. I think Wimla has at least one more surprise in store, and will go to one extreme or the other of the projected path, exiting either Melbourne or Ft. Lauderdale. I just dont see her followint the path down the center of the models.
25. zl
Gotcha, I have this unnerving feeling that Tampa isn't completely out of danger. Not that I'm clairvoyant or anything. I'm just scared they are assuming they are safe. But this chick is way too unpredictable for anybody to feel safe.

I hope your commo center is well-built.
WeatherWeasel you made me laugh (thanks I needed it).

I had the same reaction when I looked at the map also.
still no plywood for my windows in the Bahamas :( will try again in the morning ...
Does anyone think the Fujiwara effect -- a squaredance of hurricanes -- will ensue with the interation of Wilma and Alpha? What other things can happen with the storms so closely following the same track?
mybahamas,
At least Dr. M. says he thinks you should "only" see TS force winds... I hope he's right for your sake.
Thanks, Nightblooming. I wish you a very safe trip, quickly out of harms way. It doesn't look as if traffic will be that bad. They said on the news that they think a lot of people have left already. And of course you can count on idiots like me & hubby and all of our friends & family to not clog up those roads at all, LOL.
Echobravo, what is a Fujiwara effect? Sounds like a good sushi meal.

Greetings fellow Naple-ians..Naple'ees Napleians..Naple...oh forget it. Hi!

Although I'm in San Diego right now, my condo is south of 41 in the old naples area. I'm really freaking out right now as any significant storm surge will surely flood it out. We don't have hurricane shutters at the condo..it's just an older building, w/ the old crank windows. Pooh!

I hope there is beach left after this hurricane. click here to see a pict of beach at sunset.

Sunset picture

Best of luck everyone.

BeachGal
Hey BeachGal, that's some great real estate, great location. My fingers are crossed for you that it escapes damage.
Thanks GoldenGate. It's probably one of the oldest, most outdated buildings in the area, but I love it.

You take care in Golden Gate, you have all those skinny pine trees to worry about! Those will take off like little rocket ships in high wind.

I send you all my positive vibes from here..spanning from my west coast to your west coast.

:)
I love it out in GG, too. We have big dogs and it's great to have all of the land out here. At the end of every day, I sit out on my lanai and look out at all the flora & fauna and think how fortunate I am. Even with hurricanes.
Scribblin,
This is Gamma, it may not be too far out there at this point to have a Hurricane Gamma! I've gone home from work while ago, finished up everything I needed to get thru the next possibly week without power and to face this Wench Wilma. My only problem is getting my husband to board us up tomorrow morning. I will have to work on that; I am not nagging him tonight, be cool...will start fresh in the morning if we have new information.
I am still catching up on everything for the past 3 hrs. Live west of Ft Lauderdale. I am now in hurricane zone.
I have my Atlas of Florida so I can finally figure out where all of you are located within the cone.
Be back later. Good luck to all. Gamma
I spoke to Jim Cantore a few days ago at the National Weather Association Conference and he said to us that he is a bit of a hurricane nut. All I could say to him was: "REALLY? I find that hard to believe." (yes, i was being sarcastic)

Yes, the keys are in for a battering if he is there. Its a shame they always stick him in a spot where he loses reception, but then again, he gets to experience it without having to report anything. Not a bad deal.
Fujiwara effect is very rare, and you need alot of things to happen just right. First the hurricanes needs to be of near equal size and strength or the dominant one will over take the other, which of course will not happen here. Also you need a rather quiet environment, which the storms being effected by the front will have no chance.
Thanks GG and Hi to Beachgal Hope you didn't leave hurricane country for earthquake land
Okay I think it's totally cool you spoke to Cantore..
An interview today with some Keys offical the guy was treating him like an idiot explaining models to him.
Cantore said,"I know models".. The offical said,"That's right you probably have a model of your own."
Cantore is a legend.
JenD
::Orlando FL
You know, everyone thinks Cantore brings the hurricane to them. Infact, this is NOT the case. If my memory serves me correct, Cantore has only been in one eye wall this year, but Jeff Morrow has been through 4 this year (according to TWC). Jeff Morrow is in Bonita Beach. If I was in the Keys, I would breathe a sigh of relief, but if I was in Bonita, I would be on the road!
I'm on the TX Gulf Coast and we drove out to the beach tonight. Tides are extremely high. Water up to the dunes and waves getting fairly large for as far away as Wilma is from us.
I like that comment: You probably have a model of your own. Classic.

It was fun to watch all of the undergraduate students at the conference trying to speak to him. He is famous, and he knows his stuff, but in the end he is just another person like you and me. He just got lucky to be on TV. There are many people in the National Weather Service that are more experienced than him, but its his name that everyone knows. (In no way am I saying his isnt good at what he does, however!)
just a quick question -- what happens if a greek-lettered hurricane does significant damage; will the name then get retired, or is there some other solution under consideration to not repeat names of future storms?
Think I recall someone saying that the Greek lettered storms would be Alpha was to be retired, the next one would be Alpha2. Not sure if I'm recalling correctly.
Dang, my grammar got garbled up. Sorry.
Hey, yeah, I remember last year before Frances, Cantore was in Daytona or Melbourne, and I thought he was being kinda wussy not being further south toward WPB where the storm was supposed to hit. And why isn't there anyone now on the east coast?
Hey from Ruskin FL. I'm inclined to agree that Jim Cantore is in for it again. And thanks for the link to the Google site. I was wondering if any experienced wx(AWS 80-86) folks here, and into analyzing of upper air charts?

We all know what an exact science it is to forecast, but it looks like a more southern route is more likely. EYW to MFL

The 00Z are in better go and see what they say.
I thought somebody said that they will name Alpha2005, so it will not affect retirement.
Hi, GoldenGate and other Napolitans... we are boarded up in Naples Park and waiting for Wilma to do her best. One of the sites I visit often for updates is from the University of Florida and a partner that has been predicting since 1996. They have a breakdown prediction by County and by zone within the county for Peak wind speed and maximum flood depth... check it out here: http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL242005_12000.html

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best, always the best approach.

Good luck to all Floridians on, hopefully, this last storm surprise of the season.

NPD
south florida watches upgraded to hurricane warning
awaiting details of counties affected
21.8 n 86.9 w 959mb 100mph winds moving n 3mph
5-8' storm surge in the keys 8-13' near and south of the eye
jupiter inlet south on the east longboat key south on the west coast all under hurricane warningcat 2 till off the coast of fl.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 230233
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 375
MILES... 605 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT THE ISLA MUJERES
MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH... 86 KM/HR...
WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


I live in Vero Beach, but I'll be staying at a friends house in Melbourne to (hopefully) go through the worst of it so I can get some good footage and pictures. Something about their intensity forecast seems kinda on the low side, just keep in mind Wilma went from cat 1 to a cat 5 with 882 mb pressure in 20 HOURS.
Looks like Wilma and Alpha could come close to one another on Monday. What do y'all think?

Prayers for all those being affected by these storms.
59. dcw
11PM in, Alpha strengthening awfully fast...if it turns west and avoids Hispaniola, Wilma II?
night everybody...see you tomorrow afternoon
61. dcw
Thats going to be one hell of a Nor'easter with Wilma+Alpha+New England low+Cold front...Perfect Storm Jr. looking very likely.
Hello all. Long time lurker, first time poster. I am in Tampa and have been obviously been looking at this carefully for a few days now. After reviewing the NHC forcasts and advisories for a while I notice that the strike probility for Tampa keeps rising along with SW FL. Currently we are sitting at 35% where as this time yesterday we were at 20%. Just thought is was interesting that we have the same chance of a hit as EYW and they are getting the heck out of dodge. :)
hey linetech consider yourself lucky... I'm at 45% lol
Any Tampa folks in here?

We'll barely scrape by perhaps. But maybe not.
I live in Tampa too and this is getting a bit scary.

Babu
Any Tampa folks in here?strong>

Does Clearwater Beach count

I live in Tampa too and this is getting a bit scary.

Amen to that
Thanks
Alan
Hello everyone on this blog...I am mostly on Lefty's blog but I like to check in on this one from time to time. Lots of what feels like, old friends here. Just scan what has been going on here. Cantore is nwt in Islamorada (south of Key Largo) and now people are starting to talk about a more southern track.. not good to me, unless it goes to the keys and I will finally be on the north side of the storm.
will keep on looking ...
68. dcw
Why is anyone on Lefty's blog? It's a discussion board, and mine allows post editing, smileys, looks nicer, and is free!

Link

Anyhow, Wilma really looks to be getting back together, and I'm glad Alpha doesn't have time over water, she's acting alot like Wilma did right before the insane stuff.
Let me get this straight, Alpha joins Wilma and becomes Beta? Why don't we ever have Hurricane Pebbles or Bam Bam?
Just asking.
Wilma-Alpha Interaction after Wilma hits Florida?
Can't believe how much I've missed in the 18 hours or so since I last checked in. That's what having to work for a living does for you. :)

Taking a break for something a little lighter and somewhat of a diversion...

LSU Tigers beat the Auburn Tigers tonight, 20-17 in overtime. GO LSU!!!!

Anyway... how are all my friends down there in Florida? Somewhat nervous, I'm sure, but I hope at least prepared. I like that saying I've been seeing on here... "Prepare for the worst and hope for the best"... great philosophy, and one that all Gulf Coast citizens would do well to adopt pernmanently.

Well... time to get some sleep. I have to work another 12 hour shift on Sunday. So I might miss a few of you til after the storm. I wish you all well, God's blessing, peace, and safety, and I look forward to hearing from you all after the siege.

Ok, I'm outta here to get some sleep.

Ciao!

Sonny
WEll, gonna call it a night here in Tampa. Gonna see what Wilma is up to in the morning. Goodnight all.
My name is John, and I live in Naples...

I have a Vantage Pro Weather station in my backyard here in North Naples, and my websites update every 15 mins and every 45 secs with data from this weather station..Katrina and Rita passed by without so much as a zephyr...and I am not certain that wilma will be much more...but if she is, I'll be here..

I have a generator, so even if we lose power, I will continue to record data in my vantage pro and will update the data on the web page after the storm.

Here are my websites...
http://www.naples-fl-weather.com
It updates every 5 mins with lots of detail or:

http://www.naples-fl-weather.com/wdl/index.html
This should update every min without having to refresh.

We'll see how close she gets...

John- Awesome websites! I'll will be keeping a close watch, you are in the path of a hoarde of zephyrs, I would think.

Thanks for you links, I hope you sever can keep up!
great sites john
As a Port Charlotte resident living on the water (yes, I'm heading to higher ground) I have a vested interest in the answer to this question: Where will the storm surge be in relationship to the eye of Wilma? For instance, if Wilma's eye is 80 mi. across at landfall, will the storm surge be 80 mi. in length or will it be to one direction (presumably south) of the eye? - - We lucked out w/NO storm surge when Charley hit but I realize that whoever gets hit this go 'round will not be so fortunate.
COOL websites, John!! Thanks for sharing them. (is the "lab" in your handle a reference to weather labs, or those wonderfully goofy sweet dogs (I used to have 2 black labs...)
Question for others who may be awake at this insane hour...would the fact that Wilma will be caught up in the wind sheer, and pushed along by it, tend to lessen the effect of the windshear? Don't hurricanes in lower latitudes tend to "fight the sheer" i.e. move against the sheer or at right angles to it? I could see where sheer would really disrupt the hurricane in that instance. But if the track of the storm is basically lined up with the sheer, (moving in the same direction at roughly the same speed of the sheer) wouldn't this tend to lessen the affect of the sheer, at least to some extent? Kinda like riding your bike 30 mph with a 30 mph wind at your back, vs. riding against the wind? Or am I just speculating?
You can find references on the web listed as both
"fujiwara effect" and "fujiwhara effect". The following link is the one I've found so far that best describes the fujiwhara effect.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wfujiwha.htm

If anybody has a link to an even better site, I'd love to see it.

According to this, if the storms are of near equal size, they can dance around each other, but if the storms are of unequal size, the larger can slinghshot the smaller and/or absorb it completely.

At the NHC site, one of their experimental graphics does show an interesting pattern:

x

Hi there folks who know Isla Mujeres! Thousands of people who use the Democratic Underground board (http://www.democraticunderground.com/) know that many people were left trapped on the island, unable to evacuate when the ferries stopped running earlier than advised due to rough seas.

In particular, in our case, a lady who retired to the island, Pat we think is her name (nick mexicopat on the DU board) was with us before contact was lost... A vigil is being kept for her and others see thread here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5121850

This tiny island is max. 5ft above normal sea-level folks.

We became aware of the following myislamujeres message board which may be of interest to you: http://www.myislamujeres.com/communicating/open_forum.asp


Americans organising immediate aid to Isla Mujeres

From the message board soup links to im message 83 (thanks, soup):

here: http://www.myislamujeres.com/communicating/open_forum.asp?entry={0D6364A9-3D08-4E28-9308-35020E97C4B3}



Subject: Donation coordination in progress via Chris, Becky & Molly
By: island girl (View Profile)
Created: 10/22/2005 11:28:04 AM

Message:
OK guys, we are working on a way to get much needed supplies to the island. Im Chris's sister, and he, Molly and I are starting a new business called Art and Philanthropy (www.artandphilanthropy.com ). We sell art and donate a portion to causes throughout Latin America, including Isla. We were supposed to meet in Punta Mita on Thursday, where we are opening a gallery. Obviously thats not going to happen. So I am redirecting my flight to Cancun as soon as the airports open. Molly is planning on making the 48 hour drive with her SUV packed full of medical supplies. We are also trying to work with a trucking company from the states to deliver supplies as well. We'll take anyones donations as soon as we have everything worked out. Most importantly, money. So start thinking of what you can give. I'm going to post later this afternoon with complete details. Anything you can give will help.

/more at board...

Maybe folks could also post specific aid-in-the-aftermath info here in this blog on WU?
Damn. Posted on wron blog. Intended for IslaMujeres... Sorry.
John, thanks for the sites. They are great. I'll be watching them around the clock.
anyone think wilma's center looking better organized? It looks like the inner core is becoming better organized?
be careful of the democratic"underground" they may turn this into George Bush's fault..
'DU' + "wrong blog" = normal situation
i hav updated my blog
suggest we keep the topic on this site to the weather, hookedontropics.
John, your site is great. I'll be keeping an eye on your data. I'm just west of WPB and have noticed how the NHC track was a few days ago right over us. The models have continually shifted over this period but now the NHC has it again right over us. A lot of people around us have not shuttered yet. We're done with ours. It seems the larger threat now is tornadoes. In any case, you would think folks around here would have learned.
I think we have enough damage in the United States from Katrina, Rita and coming soon Wilma that keeping our money here is the best bet.
I think hookedontropics was making a joke about the name of the site. Nothing More.
Jeez. Thanks for the sense of solidarity.

But I'm not taking that bait. Adios.
Good morning, all. Just looked at the looping infrared images before joining a blog. Looks now like it's heading ENE and may hit the Keys instead of Naples/Marco area. I just heard it's now moving 8 mph.
Hurricane WILMA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT34 KNHC 231155
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT YET
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA
GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF
SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145
KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 505
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...22.4 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
I'm in Bradenton, FL, about 30 miles south of St Peterberg, and wondering just how much I need to do to prepare for this. It's my decision I realize. Pick up outside and listen to see if the storm will travel south of current predictions. No plans to evacuate as of yet.
I'm in Bradenton also. We are just bringing the patio furniture and garbage cans in the garage. Make sure you have flashlights and a battery-powered radio in case you lose power tonight or tomorrow. Also have extra ice on hand. Turn your fridge and freezer down to coldest settings. This should not be a major wind event for us, but you do need to be prepard to be without your power, maybe evenfor a couple of days.
Another Bradenton resident here.... old house in the Village of the Arts. Hoping not to do anything beyond taking in light outdoor stuff, duct-taping edges of our one remaing weak jalousie window. One weak roof on a converted lanai behind our garage, but it has a deck above it and our whole place is surrounded by trees, other buildings, and such so I'm not worrying myself to death over it.

I expect we'll get 50 - 60 mph winds here, and this house has stood up to weather here since 1950 - good hip roof, picture windows are tempered glass, not plate. We'll be okay, although maybe a little crowded with friends who live in a trailer on the river coming over to ride out the storm if it looks like it's going to be bad, a decision not worth making until this evening.

Right now everyone is concerned about making it throught the storm, but here is some information that is vital in the aftermath:

1. NEVER run your generator or in your home. I know this should go without saying, but after every storm you hear about entire families dying or going to the hospital due to carbon monoxide poisoning.

2. Do not walk through standing water. You are unable to see if there are down, live powerlines in there. After hurricane Irene, a mother and her two sons were electrocuted walking through a puddle.

I hope this is helpful to you. My prayers are with all in the path.
still no plywood available and stores still not open yet :(
another day in paradise here in bonita springs. i'm ready for it. i'm actually not too worried. a little bit, yeah.. but somewhat excited too. i went through charley last year. it's an amazing experience. maybe i should have left today, but i didn't want to leave my home. i'd rather go through cat1-2 wind here at home than sit in my truck on the side of a highway somewhere or a hotel room somewhere north or east of here. seems stupid to leave, spend money on a hotel room just to sit and watch it rain. if this was gonna be a cat3-4-5, then i'd maybe feel differently.

in kansas city... where i lived for 45 years, we had 'nados and worse.... ICE! i hated ice storms. ice storms were something i do NOT miss and i'll tolerate hurricanes anyday compared to ice storms.

from what i've seen and heard, we here in SWFL are all ready and prepared. so for me, football is the order of the day. not that it matter to me that much since my chiefs already played (and won!) yay. sorry fin and buc fans, i'm a native missouri guy.

my only concern is that it goes south of me and i get backside wind IN to my east facing condo.

hey bwanadog... hope you got out or are prepared... and the pups are safe. family too.

well, i anticipate phone calls today and all.

take care all.
Just checking in this morning. Nervous in Naples. Never been through this before. Hi Scribblin, marcomama.
Actually, I shouldn't say 'never experienced it' - I did experience Charley, but here in GG it wasn't too bad. We did lose two solar panels off of our roof, but that was it. If it's like that again, I could handle it...but I fear it'll be a lot worse.
god please all of you in SW FL becareful, and god bless. If you all need any medical questions answered please feel free to email me anytime. Im here in gainesville and expecting 30-40 gust plus rain.... bout it. But i cannot stress enough!!!! PLEASE NEVER NEVER NEVER RUN YOUR GENERATORS INSIDE.... I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH. CO POISONING IS DEADLY AND QUIK AND WITHOUT NOTICE. (CO= CARBON MONOXIDE.) BUT ALL TAKE CARE AND PLEASE FEEL FREE TO EMAIL ANY QUESTIONS... GOOD LUCK GUYS!!!
Depending on exactly where you are GoldenGate (Estates?) you should be okay. I've seen a lot of storms here and we could have some localized flooding; expect downtown Naples and Golden Gate City (especially right along the Parkway) to be flooded at least in part. Yes, we will have some downed power lines, tree branches, etc. but I think that when everything is said and done we will still be considering ourselves to be very fortunate in that the storm wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been. My 2 cents. :)
Quick question.

I'm new to this blog and site but it's really interesting. We bravely fled Thurs nite from Palm Beach Gardens to Gainesveille (O2B Kids is a GREAT destination for a 3 and 5 year old).

Where do I find the actual gfs forecast track or the NHC forecast that i've seen where you can zoom and see the track?

Probably a newbie question but I think I've tried the obvious and Google and Clusty have WAY too much info.

Thanks

Charles
charles,

here is a good website hosted by FSU containing the following models..... NOGAPS, mmFSU, GFS, GFDL, UKMET, CANADIAN. Also if you need more info than that i live in GVILLE and can give you an update on what we can expect here..... and O2B kids is good!.....

Clyde

just let me know
Prepare Outside -

Take a careful walk around you yard; pick up and secure anything that could fly around.

Inspect to see if you have any tree limbs that could endanger your home if they fell, and remove if possible. I would also prune any limbs that could slap against your windows in high winds.

Pile this stuff under a tree or other sheltered location until the storm passes.

If you have access to a camera, photograph the outside of your home and yard from several angles.

Prepare Inside

Photograph each room of the home.

You can make extra ice that can later serve as drinking water by freezing water in the 1 gallon Ziploc bags.

Prepare for the possibility of losing power. Fortunately were supposed to have cooler temps starting Monday so the loss of air conditioning shouldnt cause too much grief.

I always do laundry beforehand because it tends to pile up fast when everybody is sweating in post storm conditions.

Put together items that could be useful in an emergency.

Duct tape
Large garbage bags
Hammer and nails.
First aid items
Batteries.
Battery operated lights and radio.

If you have an electric stove and must have your morning coffee, you may want to make up a thermos full this evening.
I'm not really in Marco, east of 41 by 951. "Marco" is easier to type, though. I live in a trailer park and we had a tornado from one the hurricanes last year. Saw pieces of mobile home swirling up in the middle of the little tornado. At least I found out what I'd do in a catastrophe ... stand outside mesmerized and watch!
whooops sorry dude..... website is as follows...\


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

also the NWS website is invaluable..... www.nws.noaa.gov
\
sorry, clyde
Is this the link you are looking for?
Hurricane Track at Google Maps
Sure looks like Wilma is racing to the eastnortheast today. The 5 am advisory stated that it was moving at 3 mph, but it looks like it's going much faster now.
The Google link looks like it! Thanks.. Do you know what model that is from? Or the time of the NHC forecast. BTW That track is within 2 miles of our house (of course) Just like Jeanne.

Thanks Again

Charles
It is fun to watch and be part of the scramble to put up pre-fab aluminum shutters... I think every place should be required to have those F'in accordian shutters so you just pull em shut and your done.... you can almost even do 'em during a storm, you know...

1 time for all the West Palm Beach folks doing the same thing as me!
Hey folks,
I'm on Big Pine Key and I am trying to figure out which direction the surge is supposed to approach from. The National Data Buoy Center page (marine forecast) has the winds increasing from the SW. So why is everyone reporting that the surge will come into the bay? The south wind (in the lower Keys) should force the surge into the Gulf. Any wisdom out there?

Take care everyone.

twd
Hey ClydeFrog ~ I work in Gainesville, but live in Citrus County, a couple of counties down. If you are expecting gusts of 30-40 mph, what do you think Citrus will get? We are about 70 miles south.

Thanks in advance!
116. wxfan
Both eyewalls seem to be collapsing and convection on the North side of the storm is being blown away at 30+ mph. The storm has to be moving 12-18mph, now. She may be a CAT 1 at next advisory.
Mybahamas, not sure where you are exactly over there. Are you under the new hurricane warning? Some of the Bahamas is under a hurricane warning and some under a tropical storm warning do to Alpha.
Looks like the Tampa St. Pete. area is going to escape the worst. Being on the north side of the expected landfall will decrease the wind velocity by the value of the forward motion of the storm. Probably will see some 50-60 winds and loads of rain.
Hiya Master Jimster :)
I am in Nassau and we are under a hurricane warning. Fortunately, my supply of plywood is on the way to my house. :)
Unfortunately, I think that my southernmost window might be too high for me to reach, even with my 22-foot ladder :( I have a pondview property with a balcony and haven't received my rolldowns for that side yet :(
However, I already have two shuttered rooms in my house that could be used as "safe" rooms.
The best to all in this hurricane season :)
As forward velocity of Wilma increases it should catch up with some of the convection it is creating (currently blowing off into the lljet.). It should hold its own or intensify somewhat before landfall. Cat3 is probably a stretch, but forward acceleration will add some ummph to west coast areas that get the SW eyewall (such as it is) on landfall
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 33
Excerpt from Advisory

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 22.7 north... longitude 85.8 west or about 285
miles... 460 km... west-southwest of Key West Florida... or about
340 miles... 545 km... southwest of the southwestern coast of the
Florida Peninsula.

Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
gradual increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb...28.38 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 8 to 13 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay...as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida. Storm surge flooding along the Yucatan Peninsula
and the nearby islands should gradually subside as Wilma moves
away.

Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 15 inches through Sunday across portions of western Cuba and 2 to
4 inches across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula... with isolated
maximum storm total amounts approaching 50 inches. Rainfall across
southern Florida including the Keys through Tuesday is expected to
be 4 to 8 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible.
did anyone see me on tv about 20 minutes ago?
Mybahamas, hopefully she will be a weak cat 1 or less in your area. I doubt you have much to worry about with Alpha either.
Thanks Jimster :)
I just noticed that all the computer models shifted more south just now :(
Ric, that is so bizarre ... they said Ric Stevenson and I was thinking "where have I seen that name before? Nah... couldn't be!"
Man, I can't believe how lucky we have been here in the Tampa Bay area for so long.
i hav updated my blog
yeah, i went to the beach cuz i saw jeff morrow on and just thought i'd see it in person... and they asked to interview me! that was cool. i called my dad in phoenix right ahead of it so he got to see me. i just wish i had a tape of it
You know you spend too much time lurking around on here when you hear someone's name on tv and you can visualize the spelling of it right down to it being all one word lol
Sorm is headed a little East of NE not exactly ENE. I am afraid the people of SE Florida are taking Wilma a little too lightly. All the models are shifting South now and Dade and Broward Counties will possibly see the worst of the storm on the East Coast. Naples and Marco Island seem to habe the bullseye on the West Coast. The only blessing seems to be that the storm will be moving at a rapid pace and out of here fairly quickly. Good luck to all.
giggle. i just emailed the weather channel and asked for a copy of it... tape, dvd, computer file... whatever.
Wow. A celebrity is among us. (Bows down) Lol.
eh, i've been on tv before and published in the paper. it's no big deal to anyone but me... and dad i guess. i called dad right after and he picked up the phone and said "you need to shave". :)
Bizarre sense of calm here. It is really sunny here. We are all prepared, everything is done, so.....my dogs and I are sunbathing and swimming in the pool. It is surreal.
Good job Ric, wish I had seen it...Gamma
Hello, Newbie here, first post.

For those who are saying the models are moving south, can you tell me what you're looking at?

If it's on the web, can you post sites because this is the first hurricane I am really following this closely, and there's nothing on the few TV stations I get. The fact that they seem to be guessing is scary to me.
models, scroll right hit forward
Link sorry
Hey Ric, I just rewinded my DVR and recorded it, I live in Punta Gorda so if the weather channel doesn't give you a copy of it, I can get it to you. Or if I feel productive, I can record it onto the computer.
Hiya :)
Here's the link to the simple music track to HillboroughBay's Wilma poem :)

Link

Hi GG Change of plans we're staying put. Don't want to fight traffic trying to get back home
Jeremey. thank you!!! i will contact you via your login here.
Hey winter, try www.skeetobiteweather.com too, they have some good model images on there too.
Well, I'm going back outside to pick up some stuff, you never know how much stuff you have outside till you have to move it all inside!
What does it mean that Alpha & Wilma appear to be on a collision course according to forecasts?
Hi all, Mobile here and after reading some posts about how this house has stood storms for 40 yrs or 50 yrs so "I'm staying" let me remind all about Mississippi gulf coast. Sen Trent Lott's house 150 yrs GONE... Confederate President Jeff Davis's home sever damage. Numerous homes of 100 to 200 yrs old.....nothing but foundations.... I heard lots of people say "Oh my house made it through Camile" well they didn't make it through Katrina. I know Wilma is not a strong but I don't think based on the 2005 season that "It made it through this storm or that storm" is a sound reason not to leave especially if under an evacuation order. Just my thoughts... Good luck to all in FL and God Bless.
What is with the lack of timely updates
to Jeff Master's Blog?

For such an important storm, there sure
isn't a lot of commentary.
After a beautiful morning of partly cloudy skies and light breezes......it just got cloudy here real fast (12 noon) It looks like the first outer band is about 35 miles away.

I know all the models take this thing in further north but the current satalite loops are making me nervous...if it keeps on it's current path it looks like it will come in near Everglades city.....and Key West will be a little too close for comfort.
What is with the lack of timely updates
to Jeff Master's Blog?

For such an important storm, there sure
isn't a lot of commentary.
anglosaxon- who knows, with most all physical limits concerning meteorology out the door. But given the November cooler waters, probably not much more than the moisture/convection of one system being absorbed into the other.
Does anyone see an eyewall trying to form??
It looks like the north coast of Cuba might take a pretty good hit this afternoon from the southern part of the eyewall.

I dont like the way the strong bands are starting to wrap in closer to the center.
i am seeing that too, keeywester!!!
Dacula- see the forming eyewall. It is amazing how the storm is maintaining symmetry in the face of the dry air from the west.
Hello everyone! Ijust wanted to know if anybody has an idea on how Willma may affect Hendry Co. I have 2 daughters that live there. And what about the lake will the water be pushed to the east bacause the storm is entering from the west last year when the storms came from the east they was worried about the dike holding. Could that be a problem with this storm? thanks
WinterParkgirl, I live in St. Pete and though I think you will get lot's of rain and some rain it doesn't look like the eye will be very close. If you were here last year you probably experienced Francis and Jeanne.
I think we are starting to see some intensification unfortunately. We may have a well defined eye 4 or 5 hours from now.
Inverse EWRC?? Inwards-out? Seems to me like that is what she is trying to do.
Link
Wouldn't such a thing be quite unheard of? Any comments on this?
WinterParkgirl, sorry, I meant lot's of rain and some wind.
Very early this morning it looked as if the pinhole eye feature was forming again. Wouldn't that mean the wind field would probably contract?
Hey Nightblooming....I hear you...I talked to neighbors who are staying because of how hard it was to get back in after Charley. I'll ride out the storm with you...as long as I have the internet. I'm wondering how long I can go without the internet before I start to go through withdrawal. It could get ugly.
La Bajada radar shows Wilma's eye still large and possibly open to the NW. Forward speed is picking up, I think.