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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Alma's remains could become a Gulf of Mexico tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:30 PM GMT on May 31, 2008

The remnants of Tropical Storm Alma reorganized over the Western Caribbean this morning, just off the coast of Belize. The storm (now called Invest 90L), whipped up winds over 40 mph over the ocean just east of Belize, according to this morning's 7:11am EDT QuikSCAT pass. Observations from Buoy 42056, just to the north in the Yucatan Channel, showed sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 35, with 10 foot seas. The center of 90L has now moved inland over Belize, and the storm has missed its chance to become the first tropical depression of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. It will have one more chance to do so on Sunday afternoon, when several models, including the GFDL and NOGAPS, are predicting that 90L will continue west into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche and reorganize. The other models keep 90L inland over Mexico and do not foresee development into a tropical depression. If 90L does emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, it will not stay there long--a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast by all the models to force 90L on a west-southwesterly track into Mexico, giving the storm perhaps 12 hours to reorganize. Wind shear will be low, 5-10 knots, and I give 90L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night or Monday morning. The storm should bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days. If 90L does manage to reorganize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, southeast Mexico could end up with 5-10 inches of rain. Here's NHC's take on the system:

Special tropical disturbance statement
1130 am EDT Sat May 31 2008

The broad area of low pressure previously located over the western Caribbean Sea has moved inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. This system is accompanied by a large area of squalls and gusty winds primarily over the waters north and east of the circulation center. Significant development is not expected today as the system moves slowly westward over the Yucatan Peninsula. However...there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form if the area of low pressure moves over the Bay of Campeche on Sunday.

Even if no development occurs...localized heavy rains and floods are possible during the next couple of days over portions of Honduras...El Salvador..Guatemala...Belize...and southeastern Mexico. Future tropical disturbance statements will be issued on this system as necessary. For information specific to your area...please consult statements from your local weather office.

Forecaster Avila/Rhome



Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants, now called 90L.

Rare severe weather outbreak today along East Coast
More tornadoes raked the Midwest yesterday, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Yesterday's most significant destruction occurred at 5:15am CDT in Attica, Iowa, when an EF-2 tornado smashed through town, injuring 10 people. Other tornadoes hit Wyoming, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

Today, the action shifts to the East Coast, where the Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather from New York City to Washington D.C. The primary threat will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and large hail, but some brief tornado touchdowns are also possible.

Jeff Masters
Aftermath - Parkersburg Iowa
Aftermath - Parkersburg Iowa
These photos are the results of a tornado that tore through Parkersburg Iowa Memorial weekend. Over 300 homes leveled, and left 7 people dead in it's path. Photos can't begin to show the devastation. Seeing the damage makes a person's stomach turn. Even though residents lost so much they are all working together to salvage any personal items they can find. My friend’s grandparents home was leveled and it felt good to help what little I could by sifting through rubble saving anything that was still useable. After seeing this damage I will never again under estimate the power of Mother Nature.
Electricity
Electricity
These shots were taken just before dawn as a very energetic storm passed south of Hutchinson, KS.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1002. IKE
I figured the NHC would keep it moving west. I agree with those that see a center east of Belize.
Taz if the center relocated it wouldn't become 91L it would still be Arthur.
but what if that low a new low
HG & Baha Thank You.
Some daytime thunderstorms being caught up in the circulation of Arthur is making for an impressive signiture...convective banding that is.

1007. IKE
From the satellite....odds of this getting back over water in the BOC are low....very low.
atmo...Are we certain it was a bad report?
Photobucket

..."evil twins" emerging again?

ALSO, "special note" this season. We're going to see countless posts of the TWD - usually 10 back-to-back. UGH! Most all of the regulars know where to find the TWO and TWD on WU's "Tropical Page" on the right hand side.. And, if one must find the need to post either, please, just post a link to it, or post the "pertinent" part - NOT THE WHOLE THING, over and over and over! cchs, you should know this!

Thanks!
Wow, thanks guygee, that is what I was looking for.

I too briefly went poking around the podaac site and found one of those, but didn't follow through so thoroughly yet. (Still might never have found all that you did)

You really are a research nut, aren't you? lol

So the short of it is that we can use the winds from QuikSCAT as 1-minute equivalents and they are referenced to the 10 meter WMO standard. Good to know.
Looks like Arthur may be up to something.
Would love to hear how the NHC justifies their location. I don't see a defined COC at their coordinates.
Well this move... just bought it time for the forces around the US and the GOM to change. Better or for the worse we will have to see.
Folks good evening first of all!

Anyway i came to check on the blog and am glad to see my eyes are not fooling me! The COC seems to have indeed relocated to the SE near Belize...If this is indeed confirmed the whole track forecast of this system could change dramatically...It could perhaps slip on the east side of that ridge of high pressure and be driven into the east Gulf Coast....Something to watch.
Hi MLC

I must confess that I am bemused by this storm. If it is indeed still moving West over land then something else is spinning up offshore.

Would not be the first time the NHC had to do an about face.
1016. HGFL2
you are welcome.

1006. thats a nice shot.
456 how is that one wave doing that you talk about today ???
1018. IKE
Here's a weather OB from Belize with NNW winds....

"Astrum Helicopters - Cisco Base, Belize City, BZ (PWS)
Updated: 28 sec ago
Light Rain
77.5 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 6.3 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 6.3 mph
Pressure: 29.68 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 79 °F
Visibility: -
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 ft...........


How can that be if it's west of the location? Should be from the south.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO
...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION. THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z
BUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD
TOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS. OTHER
LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.
ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE. DATA FROM
THE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.


LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW
LONG IT WILL LAST. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND
CALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 18.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 18.3N 93.6W 30 KT...NEAR COAST
72HR VT 04/0000Z 18.2N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 96.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Ike,
Remember how some of the models like the GFS has a system stalled near Yucatan and took days to move? Interesting if that did occur
Well it isnt a suprise....its something that happen at the last minute...remember a few days ago with Alma when the NHC quickly reassesed their advisory.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION. THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z
BUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD
TOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS. OTHER
LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.
ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE. DATA FROM
THE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW
LONG IT WILL LAST. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND
CALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 18.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 18.3N 93.6W 30 KT...NEAR COAST
72HR VT 04/0000Z 18.2N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 96.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
atmo...Are we certain it was a bad report?

97 knots? Even if it were a gust, it is way too high to believe.
yes i do
I know...but strange stuff happens at sea in bad weather...I'm just sayin it wouldn't be unheard of...
Good night all...we will see in the morning if the center did relocate.
1028. IKE
1021. sporteguy03 10:03 PM CDT on May 31, 2008
Ike,
Remember how some of the models like the GFS has a system stalled near Yucatan and took days to move? Interesting if that did occur


Yeah. Looks like the NHC doesn't think this gets into the BOC anymore and just slowly dies out according to the discussion.
PLEASE, just post the links to the TWO and TWD on WU's "Tropical Page". They are located on the right hand side and most everyone knows where they are. And, if one must find the need to post either, please, just post a link to it, or post the "pertinent" part - NOT THE WHOLE THING, over and over and over!
That offshore complex is expanding at quite a rate. Would not surprise me one bit if the lowest pressure has relocated there. Anyway, we will see.

Link
1017. Tazmanian 11:01 PM AST on May 31, 2008
456 how is that one wave doing that you talk about today ???


Remains unchange from the last update.

Look at comment 15

Has anyone else looked at the possibility of Arthur having a CoC forming on the West side (over land) in addition to having a CoC forming on the East side off the coast of Belize?

I'd hate to think I'm just hallucinating again. All that therapy down the drain. :>)

If you look at the water vapor loops, strong convection and what appears to be a slight rotation are forming on that West side over land, IMHO. If true, it would make Arthur one strange storm.
Hey presslord and SJ, I've been lurking since late in 05 and don't post much, but I live in your area(Johns Island), and just wanted to say hello.
I found this interesting from the discussion:

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW
LONG IT WILL LAST. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...
Hey...I'm on Johns Island too...nice to see ya...
Weatherspo thank you to for posting the times. Aurthur is acting kinda strange for a early storm isn't he. It makes ya wonder what the season is going to be like this year.
Sheri
I'm out for now.

It will be interesting to see what is evolving with Arthur
Well, my dad just wrote off my car. Luckily he is OK.
1041. DocBen
moonlight - another EPAC storm developing?
Hey Press, I'm in winnsboro.
LOL Amazing! I posted this on my blog May 18

Outlook for the last 2 weeks of May

The GFS is predicting continued favorable conditions in the Western Caribbean with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to enhance moisture and convection over the area during the remainder of this month into early June. This coincides with the formation of a tropical storm in the Northwest Caribbean on May 31 that the GFS has been remarkably persisting for 48 hrs now. This is long-range; and I don’t normally look at or rely on models past 1 week for development, but I chose to mentioned it since I was giving an outlook on the last 13 days of May.
DocBen, I've NO idea. This broad area of low pressure has been intriguing to say the least!

There doesn't seem to be anything developing in the Eastern Pacific. The only thing worth monitering are TS Arthur and the tropical wave off of Africa.
Does anybody have a recent picture of the Africa wave they could post? Muchos gracias...
JP can ya give us the link?

Thanks.
1046.

Link, please?
1046. jphurricane2006 3:19 AM GMT on June 01, 2008
nope gs

I think all of you are smoking, I am looking at the shortwave and I clearly see the COC is still in that location and moving west


Duuuuuude your so right COC is over land and moving wes---wow look at those pretty colors.
presslord,

1048. JP

It looks like there are 2 circulations.
jp...that's pretty cool....
456...thanks....
JP, I can see what you're talking about. It almost looks to have moved south, or sw from earlier today. But, you can also see those two huge areas of convection building on either side. I think some pressure readings might would tell us some things - that'd be nice for sure, but we don't have that kind of luxury I don't guess.

The way this thing has acted from the beginning, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw two systems emerge again.
1053. Nice. It needs some convection though, huh?
1056. Makes sense, JP.
Good evening fellow weather freaks... lol.
Convection with the tropical wave off African seems to have diminished considerately, probadly due to dry air
*1051

I see what your talking about...
Sup "back up?" lol
1066. hydrus
WEATHER-456-
I,m reposting a question I asked you a while back.Do you think this t.s. could still effect the U.S.?
059. moonlightcowboy 11:28 PM AST on May 31, 2008
1053. Nice. It needs some convection though, huh?


Yep...Local DMAX occurs around 6am (3am our time)
There isn't any rotation @ 850mb of the coast of Belize. The only thing I see is 20kts of shear may be tilting the storm W to E and your looking at the mid-level rotation of a weakening storm in need of an ocean.
1056. jphurricane2006 3:26 AM GMT on June 01, 2008
I bet the one you guys are seeing is the midlevel low.


Ok, but there is no wind shear so they are both separate. I would bet since the "Authur" low is over land and thus per tropical law (with no water) loosing strength. So the Mid-Level low must be trying to work its way down to the surface because it has the energy (warm water, little shear)
I think JP and SP are onto what's going on.
Hi mlc... is that an offer? Ha ha!
Sounds like a workable hypothesis.
1066. hydrus 11:31 PM AST on May 31, 2008
WEATHER-456-
I,m reposting a question I asked you a while back.Do you thinnk this t.s. could still effect the U.S.?


yeah I answered it...I was saying that it seems unlikely that it would affect the USA because the ridge was expected to remain in place for atleast 3 days, at which time Arthur would be already curve too far south to be affected. Then I went onto explain, if for any reason the ridge shifts east before then...it would allow a more NW motion and the state that would be most likely affected would be Texas, but currently, that seems unlikely.

LOL, smmc! ...errra, not today anyways! ;P

brb, gang, got an idea to check on!
500mb JP, much more active. It also shows you how broad this area of disturbed weather is.
1062. stormdude77 11:30 PM AST on May 31, 2008
Convection with the tropical wave off African seems to have diminished considerately, probadly due to dry air


Not dust but rather DMIN

LINK

LINK
OMG, I have been reading what you two are chatting about...and now I am so lost I think I might even understand it?

Time for a stiff drink.
TCW, that's what I was looking at, too. And, you can tell by this 200mb vorticity that there's still some height with the main vortice, I think! LOL

LOL, look at the vorticity on the tail of that trough though! That may be what Ivan was talking about earlier?
Jp just looked at satellite and i concurr your thoughts. The surface low is moving West while the mid level has been left behind. You might be very correct that a new low level could come down from the mid low.
and now I am so lost I think I might even understand it?

Time for a stiff drink.


I kinda know what ya mean....and , btw....it's always time for a stiff drink......
It's either decoupled or we've got another vortice low trying to make its way down to the surface imo.
1084. .....ummmm, pour two!;P
And MLC, this area of low pressure will persist until it is able to move north, it's trapped in the Caribbean and holding up our fruitful rains here in Florida.
I'm on my second right now...
No shear any where close.
It almost appears the mid level is drifing almost SSW.
That's what I am proposeing that a Mid Level COC is tring to make its way down to the surface with the downdrafts of the thunderstorms. Even the NHC said that it detected log range lighning. There is new research that says the lighting is caused by friction between water particles in downdrafts...

It's all coming togther now!!

I get it!
Plenty of convergence and outflow still, too.
Alright kids... I'm outta here. I'll try to check in tomorrow, but I have a busy day planned. Talk to you guys soon. Good night.
Uh oh. So will this count for the death toll of Alma or Arthur? Link
Still be there in the Morning, night all. Glad things settled down in here this evening. We all gotta be on the same page and working together, otherwise it's going to be a loooooong year.
HERE WE GO!!!




Low level moving West with this steering flow.


Mid level moving SSW with this steering flow.
HAPPY HURRICANE SEASON! lol
Good night all! Welcome to the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season! See you all tomorrow. By the way, GO FISH!!!
The 2008 Hurricane season, officially starts now...Yippie!! LOL
2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN!
Nice countdown, sp! It's official now, WUhoo! Cheers to all our fellow weathercasters and die-hard posters! Ya'll are a good bunch. My toast is to all of you! And, my wish is that we're all spared the wrath of these unique and dangerous systems!

...to hurricane season 2008!

Photobucket
blog party its party time some one get the beer pizaa and coke


LOL


good night
The convection continues to expand....
mlc...How did you get your hands on that video of me?!?!?!?!
Have a good night, GS!
LOL, press.

cchs, yep - Go F I S H!!!!
Wow the Big High in the Atlantic is due to really expand and get very strong.
408.

LOL Press!
Well if that blob over the Caribbean is a just a band, that is one of the biggest, blobiest, bands i have ever seen.
Like a new years party up in here...Lol

later guys
mlc...How did you get your hands on that video of me?!?!?!?!

LOLOLOLOL
Good night everyone...we'll see what happens tomorrow...


...a look at things to come yet?
EUMETSAT IR over the deep, dark mysterious
tropical Atlantic. Who know what her belly
has in store for us!!!
Earthquake Information (Information about Seismic Intensity at each site)
Issued at 11:08 JST 01 Jun 2008 (2:08 AM UTC)

10:58 JST 01 Jun 2008
20.3N 121.5E
Depth: very shallow
Magnitude: 6.1
Region: PHILIPPINES REGION

----
Magnitude 6.4
Date-Time Sunday, June 01, 2008 at 01:57:22 UTC
Sunday, June 01, 2008 at 09:57:22 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 20.115N, 121.317E
Depth 22.4 km (13.9 miles)
Region BATAN ISLANDS REGION, PHILIPPINES
Distances 80 km (50 miles) WSW of Basco, Batan Islands, Philippines
220 km (135 miles) NNE of Laoag, Luzon, Philippines
550 km (340 miles) S of T'AI-PEI, Taiwan
610 km (380 miles) N of MANILA, Philippines
Have a good sleep, ladies and gentlemen!
Good Night MLC!

The tropical chaos will be here in the morning!
Evening all...

So its officially here! I am trying to read and catch up... Alma to Arthur ushers in H- season!
I'm off too.. cya.

Authur is going to be on the coast again tomorrow morning.
1103. stormdude77 11:00 PM CDT on May 31, 2008
The 2008 Hurricane season, officially starts now...Yippie!! LOL


It actually started at 0000 UTC, which was 4 hours ago; they always use UTC in weather forecasts and everything else.
1125. hahaguy
dont ruin it stl , lol j/k
1126. Drakoen
Is it safe to come in?
"A look back at the history of Mississippi River levels since 1900 reveals an intriguing fact: In the years when the river swelled, as it did this spring, few hurricanes have hit the New Orleans area.

In fact, during 17 high-river years in the past century, just three hurricanes struck near New Orleans. "

NOLA has an easy time with hurricanes when the MS river is high in the spring? Just a whacky coincidence? What could account for it? Not an ENSO correlation, apparently (according the story). Other ideas?

Link

Good, STL is here. I bet he can come up with ENSO transitions that would give high river levels (from more precip in the watershed) and then keep NOLA from having a rough hurricane season.
1124, lol all that excitement for something we were four hours late for...
Hey Drak, I think its fairly safe. What are your thoughts on this flare up over the Caribbean? Others have thought the mid level center might have decoupled from the low level center. Do you think this is what happened?
It's always possible that a new COC could develop under the offshore convection. It's done that once before, it can do it again. Then again, that will just drift ashore, too!
Will if it does develop further behind will that give the high enough time to break down or wil it just build in even more?
1133. hahaguy
Ya I also think that it is possible for a new COC to develop under the convection offshore. I know we have seen it before. But in my opinion I wouldn't expect a lot from it.
How about some classic feature posts to kick off the season, gang?



SST's though seemingly starting slow, seem quite there, now, and can support tropical development most anywhere in the tAtl.
1127. atmoaggie 11:24 PM CDT on May 31, 2008
"A look back at the history of Mississippi River levels since 1900 reveals an intriguing fact: In the years when the river swelled, as it did this spring, few hurricanes have hit the New Orleans area.


There may be some connection to ENSO there; also the years listed below may be of interest as well, as in what the hurricnae seasons were like in those years and how it might relate to this year:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
317 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...FINAL VERSION...

...WETTEST START OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD FOR ST. LOUIS...

LAMBERT ST. LOUIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS OBSERVED 27.87
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH MAY 28TH...WHICH IS 12.44 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS THE WETTEST START TO ANY YEAR ON RECORD.

BELOW ARE THE TOP TEN RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD OF
JANUARY 1ST THROUGH MAY 28TH.
RANK VALUE YEAR
--------------------
1. 27.87 2008
2. 26.18 1890
3. 25.25 1927
4. 25.17 1929
5. 25.16 1995
6. 24.31 1893
7. 24.24 1898
8. 23.11 1882
9. 22.09 1912
10. 22.00 1909

THROUGH ROUGHLY 5 MONTHS OF THE CALENDAR YEAR...ST. LOUIS
IS ALREADY MORE THAN HALF WAY TO THE RECORD YEARLY RAINFALL
AMOUNT OF 54.97 INCHES WHICH WAS SET IN 1982. BELOW ARE THE
TOP TEN WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD FOR ST. LOUIS.
RANK VALUE YEAR
--------------------
1. 54.97 1982
2. 54.76 1993
3. 51.65 1984
4. 50.83 1927
5. 50.73 1985
6. 50.31 1946
7. 49.28 1915
8. 49.20 1898
9. 48.46 1876
10. 47.55 1945

(this already needs updating since the year-to-date total is now 29.57 inches)
1136. hahaguy
The area around the Bahamas is really heating up.
1137. Drakoen
The circulation is decoupled. The mid level center is clear shown moving to the Southeast while the surface center is moving to the west. Mid level flow suggest this is the scenario. The circulation center is seen at 18.4N 89.5W this is based on satellite and microwave imagery.
Looks to me like Arthur's circulation has completely fallen apart...I haven't seen any rotation in hours, even when there were still some visible loops.
also the years listed below may be of interest as well, as in what the hurricnae seasons were like in those years and how it might relate to this year:

Thanks, STL. But it is merely coincidence or some actual teleconnection signal? I know you have some link handy where I could look up those years (and the previous one). Share, please?

Maybe it isn't ENSO, but some combination of ENSO and another. I keep hearing about a mythical, yet unproven, teleconnection of the PDO to the Atlantic season. Thoughts on that?
So if the mid level center gets out over the Caribbean Arthur could come back?
1140. HurricaneKing 4:47 AM GMT on June 01, 2008
So if the mid level center gets out over the Caribbean Arthur could come back?


If that were to happen, which it won't since the winds at that level are from the east, thus pushing the system and its mid level circulation west.

So does anyone know if the center relocates under the assumed mid level center, what implications that would have on the forecast track?
Well Drak just said the mid level center is moving southeast. Also with all that convection off there you never know but I have to agree with you the llc looks gone.
Well is this southeast movement just a temporary movement?
1145. beell
Happy and boring H season to all.
What is the consensus here on the low level steering ridge? If it is west, does it matter where the coc is?
Re: Post 1099
1146. Drakoen
The important thing to track is the surface center which is still evident on satellite imagery. The mid level center has wondered of to the SE because of the northwesterly mid level shear.
Sorry to go off subject but the preview for the Happening creeps me out.

I'm not sure if it's temporary or not. I know the steering charts would say it is but there is to much crap happening down there to say.
So Drak you don't believe the mid level center will fire off a new low level center?
Photobucket

LOOP


Winds still coming out of the se near the coastline.
Blah I can't wait to see what this thing does, it's just a big mess. I'll go to sleep and let it work its wonders. Good night everyone and I hope we have a great hurricane season together.
1152. Drakoen
1148. SouthDadeFish 5:00 AM GMT on June 01, 2008
So Drak you don't believe the mid level center will fire off a new low level center?


I don't think so. Center re-location is possible though since the surface center is becoming shallow.
hurricane king i have been saying that all day about the dry air.....
Have a good sleep, SDFish!
Using the first list in comment 1135, which is mainly based on spring rainfall, here are the ENSO phases for those years, based on the SOI (some years are somewhat uncertain like 1882 which had large monthly SOI swings from strongly positive to strongly negative but no clear trend):

Year         SOI
1890 La Nina-Neutral
1927 Neutral
1929 La Nina-Neutral
1995 Neutral
1893 La Nina-Neutral
1898 Neutral
1882 Neutral
1912 El Nino
1909 El Nino-La Nina

Most of those years appear to have been neutral or La Nina transistioning to neutral, as this year might. Now here are the hurricane seasons (Storms is total, hurricanes, majors, landfalls is by storm, state and category at landfall):

Year   Storms   US Landfalls
1890 4/2/1 TS #2 (LA, TS)
1927 7/4/2 TS #5 (SC, TS)
1929 3/3/1 H#1 (TX, 1), H#2(FL, 3)
1995 19/11/5 Allison (FL, TS), Dean (TX, TS), Erin (FL, 2)
Jerry (FL, TS), Opal (FL, 3)
1893 12/10/5 H#1 (FL, TS), H#4 (NY, 1)
H#6 (GA, 3), H#8 (LA, 1)
H#9 (FL, 3), H#10 (LA, 4)
TS#11 (MD, TS)
1898 11/5/1 H#1 (FL, AL, 1), H#2 (SC/GA, 1)
TS#5 (LA, TS), TS#6 (TX, TS)
H#7 (GA, 4)
1882 6/3/2 H#2 (FL, 3), H#3 (TX/LA, 2)
TS#4 (NC, TS), TS#6 (FL, TS)
1912 7/4/1 TS#1 (LA, TS), TS#2 (GA, TS)
H#3 (MS, 1), H#4 (TX, 1)
1909 11/6/4 H#2 (TX, 2), TS#3 (FL, TS)
H#4 (TX, 3), TS#7 (FL, TS)
H#8 (LA, 3), TS#9 (FL, TD)
H#10 (FL, 3)

Many of the early years were likely undercounted however since they were in the late 1800s and early 1900s, although landfalls are likely pretty accurate. Also, quite a few of those years had hurricanes, including major hurricanes, hit Louisiana, the most significant being in 1893 (which also had the Sea Islands hurricane hit Georgia, killing about 4,000 between the two).
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR...CENTERED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ARTHUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT31 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
ARTHUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2008 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARTHUR LAURA
BERTHA BUR- THA MARCO
CRISTOBAL NANA
DOLLY OMAR
EDOUARD EH DWARD- PALOMA PA LOW- MA
FAY RENE RE NAY-
GUSTAV SALLY
HANNA TEDDY
IKE VICKY
JOSEPHINE JO- ZE FEEN WILFRED
KYLE

(THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 2 AM...8
AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON
NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND
7 PM EST.
)

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

(First TWO issued)
hahaguy, Which area near the Bahamas?
LOL guys...check out this...the TUTT featured below looks almost EXACTLY like the TUTT swirling around the WATL in early June 2005.


2008 tutt


The TUTT in June 2005 came right after Arlene hit the gulf coast.
1162. beell
May be interesting to keep an eye on the longwave trough trying to dig south at the far left side of this sat loop for how "things" may evolve. Not the shortwave trough/closed upper low near the extreme NW Conus coast. The big longwave. Right now, looks like the ridge over the S half of CONUS extending west out into the Pacific is winning out. That pattern may be changing over the coming week. Might be too late for Arthur but if the consistent disturbed weather in the Carib can persist we may eventually see something move into the GOM.

RAMSDIS West
Hey, beell! And, that I believe is the same thing Ivan said earlier this evening. Good obs!
jp this is my opinion brother didnt say it was written in stone.know more thursday...stormkat
Evening all :~)

Or should I say morning. Off to bed soon, but wanted to pop in.
I'm thinking that we MAY see another storm form within the next week or so in the Caribbean (Bertha?) before the MJO moves eastward and dry air sets back in into the caribbean on June 8-11.
1167. 0741
is jp here?
1169. 0741
ok i looking at rainbow color infrared sat pic i see some weak spin in storm off coast do you see same or eye playing game?
what coast
1172. 0741
here the link Link
1173. 0741
most likely plane check both area if still their later today
Hey look:
CARIBBEAN...
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. SEE SPECIAL FEATHERS ABOVE. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM COVERS THE AREA W OF 74W.
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC DIPS S TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES W OF PUERTO RICO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND A SECOND
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

will they call this one Arthur if they find a storm/depression from the NW caribbean blob, or will they call it TD 2?


Edit: LMAO Special Feathers...I'll always remember that one...ROTFLOL
goodnight i will see you in the morning.
1177. JLPR
Join The contest =). I leave this message and invite all of you weather freaks (all my fellow bloggers) =P to join my contest related to the 2008 hurricane season. Right now I have 33 entries and I got StormW. yay!=) Im awaiting your June update StormW =).
Come to my BLOG and join the fun =)!!!
1178. 7544
aurther is still alive and kicking at 4 am looks like it might be going further east soo they just might relocate the center stay tune more to follow
Haha Special Feathers.
It looks like the MId level spin that was left behind from Arthur might be trying to work its way down. That would be very interesting.
1182. IKE
SPECIAL FEATHERS

LOL!
Whipppppeeee! Hurricane season is officially here. I'm going right now to see if I have any presents under the evacuation kit.
1184. IKE
Jeez....the system or whatever it is east of Belize is more impressive than anything I see down there....now I'll read the update and discussion on Arthur.
I don't like the historical tracks of TS's this time of year. We need rain but not in the gallons.
1186. IKE
1181. TampaSpin 5:30 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
It looks like the MId level spin that was left behind from Arthur might be trying to work its way down. That would be very interesting.


That looks a heck of a lot more impressive than what the NHC has as the COC(18.3N, 90.1W)...there's nothing much at those coordinates.
Morning Everyone!

The season is finnaly here!
Does anyone have a link to a current radar image of Arthur?
Ike i think we will have a new COC forming....that MId level looks very good..




Theres a new center forming off the coast of belize.
1191. IKE
Their having satellite issues...it's not updating again...latest frame is at 9:15UTC.
What is that? That is not Arthur is it? The swirly blob next to Belize.
1193. IKE
Look at the wind direction from a station in Belize....

Astrum Helicopters - Cisco Base, Belize City, BZ (PWS)
Updated: 34 sec ago
Temperature: 78.6 °F
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 6.3 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 6.3 mph
Pressure: 29.62 in
Heat Index: 82 °F
Visibility: 16.0 miles
Elevation: 3 ft..........


It should be from the opposite direction if the NHC is correct...
Oops, seems I posted too soon. It is Arthur according to the 4AM CST satellite view. Hum. Interesting.
Thanks for the images Ipswhich

If the center relocated to offshore Belize how much time will it have before moving over land again?
Latest Satallite pic.
IKe it seems to be moving more in a Northerly direction.
1198. IKE
1195. MasterForecaster 5:56 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Thanks for the images Ipswhich

If the center relocated to offshore Belize how much time will it have before moving over land again?


I'm not sure it will move over land.
1199. IKE
1197. TampaSpin 5:59 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
IKe it seems to be moving more in a Northerly direction.


Yeah.
1198. IKE 10:59 AM GMT on June 01, 2008
1195. MasterForecaster 5:56 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Thanks for the images Ipswhich

If the center relocated to offshore Belize how much time will it have before moving over land again?

I'm not sure it will move over land.


I just sent this too them about it

"
from Simon vale (me)
to nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov
date 1 June 2008 11:59
subject Arthur - New Circulation?


Hello,

I am a bit confused at the moment about Tropical Storm Arthur. I have seen Ariel Loops showing a new center of circulation forming off the coast near where Arthur landfalled. Would this be a new tropical depression if it gained organization or Tropical Storm Arthur again. It looks to be Mid-level at the moment.

Thanks,

Simon Vale


PS: Everyone saw the Special Feathers Mistake on Wunderground.com from the 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 discussion"



Ike, I wouldn't say the storm is moving, more meandering.
1202. guygee
There does seem to be a slight weakness between the strong Mid-CONUS DLH that is currently suppressing Arthur, and the weaker WATL high. Feeling that tug, perhaps the convection in the Gulf of Honduras will get separated and left behind. Probably just a temporary effect, though, as the main high progresses. The strong Mid-CONUS high is currently driving all convection out of the Bay of Campeche.

Alma had a large circulation that got stretched out and horizontally sheared due to land interaction and also due to the other systems around it. Such a system has to shed energy in turbulent flow by throwing off eddies of various sizes. Not surprising one of those became persistent in the Caribbean. I was surprised to see NHC name Arthur from 90L just as the center was making landfall. They almost never do that.

It is a good sign.
Nice to have the TWO/GTWO back. Note the new issuance times at the bottom of the message, they've changed since last year.

---


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR...CENTERED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ARTHUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT31 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
ARTHUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR 2008 THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN CHANGED...TO 2 AM...8
AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME ON
NOVEMBER 2...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND
7 PM EST.
Morning Ike,

I was thinking about it not moving over land too, however in order for it to avoid land (in the short term) it must head north and or east, can this happen the way things are set up?
"from comeonipswich@gmail.com
to nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov
date 1 June 2008 11:59
subject Arthur - New Circulation?


Hello,

I am a bit confused at the moment about Tropical Storm Arthur. I have seen Ariel Loops showing a new center of circulation forming off the coast near where Arthur landfalled. Would this be a new tropical depression if it gained organization or Tropical Storm Arthur again. It looks to be Mid-level at the moment.

Thanks,

Simon Vale


PS: Everyone saw the Special Feathers Mistake on Wunderground.com from the 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 discussion"


Anyone wanna tell me the answer before they do?
Things are changing. Yesterday the steering flow had Arthur going due West. Now the new steering flow would take the spin off Belize on more of a WNW track. The next steering update i would suspect would be even more North yet with this trend.
1206. and with the center of arthur "relocating" Mexico could be in with a problem
1207. IpswichWeatherCenter 7:06 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
1206. and with the center of arthur "relocating" Mexico could be in with a problem


Possibly even Texas if a new COC is there.
Morning! Sitting in MCI airport, weird how no one pays any attention to tropics! LOL. Last night I was only one of 100 who had a clue that tropics were brewing & one cousin in law has kids & g-kids in Belize!

Thanks. StormW for emails!

Thanks also everyone here for great updates!

WX permits. . . Home soon!
Well, if there was some doubt in the night about the coc relocating, I don't think anyone can doubt that the rotation seems to be centered offshore.

The new COC if it has formed might just go more North and actually turn NE if it feels the opening in this WV imiage.
Has a storm ever gone from the Pacific to the Atlantic back to the Pacific in 3 dissipation energy transfers yet? I think TS 01-E/L (ALMA/ARTHUR) could be one.
I'm seeing a potential for another New Orleans Direct hit... It could hit Florida this new CoC.
The whole of the gulf needs to look out for Arthur
stormtop??
A new circulation is forming off the coast of Belize and it has been gaining strength through the night...if the new COC continues to evolve, it will either swallow or allow the previously dominant low to detach. If this happens without the NHC dissipating the storm first, the new COC will still be that of Arthur. Buoy 42056 located to the north of the new COC is reporting winds out of the ESE. Station NGTK, located in northern Guatemala just west of the border with Belize is reporting winds out of the NNW, and this would indicate a counterclockwise rotation at the surface. The 850 Vort shows growing vorticity in the general area off Belize but any rotation is still weak. I think a new circulation is definitely forming and the GFS has previously been showing this on earlier runs, as well as the ECMWF which still shows low pressure in the Gulf of Honduras in 72 hours. I still want to see a QS pass though.
TPC still has Arthur moving west into Mexico, but TS, I'm with you, I think the coc has either decoupled and moved off the Belize coast and has/is working its way down to the sfc, or there's an altogether new, additonal coc. Spaghetti models still showing the coc overland and moving west.
1216. Nice post, TNova.
Interesting thing i just looked at many computer models recent updates and the West side of the high that was pushing Arthur West is eroding. Just an observation but, i my opinion i think this possibly new COC will track in a more Northerly direction.
1220. IKE
1215. WPBHurricane05 6:18 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
stormtop??


LOL.
Nice update TerraNova thanks
Just stopping in for a minute....but from the looks of the satellite loops, the old center appears to be spinning down while there appears to be a new one developing off the Belize coast.
Arthur is definetly finding a new Coc offshore could it strengthen there ?

I think the rest of the Carib and Gulf have been made unfavorable by Arthur
Ty tnova

IM NOW CONFUSED!
Even if a new CoC has developed, wind shear is starting to pick up...
1216. Nice post, TNova.
1221. Nice update TerraNova thanks
1224. Ty tnova


You're welcome!
IS there anyone in the NHC?

If there is anyone watching this blog RESPOND TO MY EMAIL.
So we might have Arthur Version 2?
This is the Current Pic of the high from the GFS model


This is in 66 hours later from the GFS model


This why i think it heads more North
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...18.2 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
Even if a new CoC has developed, wind shear is starting to pick up...

Yep-a flow out of the NW is beginning to setup. This should gradually increase shear over the next 24 hours, and the new COC will have to cope with 20-30 knots of it for now. Still, we've seen systems (Barry) develop in this type of shear and I wouldn't throw the new COC out just because shear is increasing.


Is that possible?
1230. WPBHurricane05 7:33 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...18.2 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006
MB.


I don't think TerraNova wrote this......lol
1234. IKE
1230. WPBHurricane05 6:33 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...18.2 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.


LOL again..........
Morning everyone.

I see there's little motion w/ Arthur this a. m.

How's our latest African Twave doing?
True Barry did develop with that shear, however a new center over water would have trouble remaining intact and there is still some question as to whether or not one exists. The 850mb map shows most of the vorticity over the Yucatan.
1237. IKE
If that is the COC...it's moving WSW and will die over the mountains of Mexico.
Had to be an intern in charge their this morning.....lol
good morning

I see the debate about the COC continues

Obs from Roatan island now show WSW winds @ 3 mph. That would not happen unless there was a low offshore Belize in the Gulf Of Honduras. I still maintain, as I did last night, that the center has reformed or is in the process of doing so, just offshore.

This is often seen in asymetrical systems where the heavy thunderstorms are removed from the low center and the center then migrates to the area of lowest pressure which is usually colocated in the deepest convection
Baha, Satellite imagery shows the African wave is still intact, but not nearly as impressive as yesterday.
The discussion at advisory number 5 should highlight the possibility of a new circulation off the coast.
1241.
tampa: you need to be employed by the nhc to tell them whats going on...

you also need a 24/7 supply of coke so you can work 24/7
I don't think TerraNova wrote this......lol

Nope I didn't LOL. Arthur just won't quit being a TS.
I see Mainelli's got her name first on a TSD . . . good on her!

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010853
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
.....
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
1237. IKE 7:37 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
If that is the COC...it's moving WSW and will die over the mountains of Mexico.


IKE IMO their is no way it move WSE it should move WNW then turn more Northerly.
Why is there still a tropical storm warning off the coast of belize?
you'd think it would turn into an inland ts watch
Why is there still a tropical storm warning off the coast of belize?
you'd think it would turn into an inland ts watch


1248. guygee
RE:1230. WPBHurricane05 11:33 AM GMT June 01, 2008

So most likely we should see the naked center on the visible loops once the sun comes up. Do I have this position correctly located? Anyone?
G'morning, K'man! I've been in that same boat of thinking, too. GOES-12 LOOP
1247. Sorry..

but it still does not need to be such a big ts warning...


Its definatly got a spin that new blob

AND ITS NOT MOVING!
So most likely we should see the naked center on the visible loops once the sun comes up. Do I have this position correctly located? Anyone?

As of advisory 4a the center is located at 18.2 N, 90.3 west so yes you are correct.
tampa spin i agree with your thinking north than maybe NE i saw that weakness yesterday and someone mention it to be possible on here last night
1255. guygee
Re:1252. TerraNova

Thanks TerraNova! Need that occasional "sanity check" :~)
Funny thing is when the NHC puts a floater up and and name storm is up you can always click on the the Trop fcst Pts to see the projected path and COC and nothing is there now......lol
Hi MLC

We were talking about this from early last night. Can't wait for the visible loop to be available
So far with Arthur I've looked at the floater WV loops. I think I see what people are talking about here. OTOH, I also see the larger rotational centre where NHC is saying it is located, with those two major cloud formations focused on it. Anybody has coordinates for where they think the new CoC is forming?
1256.

Tampa,

All the flipping Nhc care about is bringing in these cheap tacky experimental products to make them look good.
17.5 N 87W

Is where the new center looks to be

At one time, one of the TPC maps showed the Arthur moving into the northwest over the Yucatan, moving briefly into the GOM on the north tip, and then moving back sw across the peninsula. But, that TPC map is gone now and shows Arthur moving west. But, also the new map shows two lows on the 24-hr map.

MLC that loop really shows a weakness that the new COC would take and that being more North if i looked at that correct?
In this image Roatan island is just offshore the N coast of Honduras at the bottom of the image. The center looks to me to be NW of there offshore the coast of Belize.

That would account for the WSW winds at Roatan

TS, imo, steering would suggest a nwest movement. If it did and there was a weakness there like you're talking about, sure, I think it would be possible to follow that weakness. Let's see what the visibles show.
1263. There you go, K'man!
I like using the NASA viewers because they are a bit more easily manipulated than other sites. So I did a midlevel zoom on Arthur and what I am seeing is:

1. both of the large storm complexes are rotating around that point identified by NHC. I. E. the one of Belize is moving north; the one south of the Bay of Campeche is moving south.

2. both of the large storm complexes also seem to have some internal rotation of their own.

To see the larger rotation, you need to watch not so much these larger "blobs", but rather the clouds at around 19N 91W, which, at least to me, seem to be headed SE just as they ought.

I'm not sure what all this means in terms of the long term prognosis for Arthur, but it sure is interestin' . ..

BTW, it turns out my car isn't as bad as my dad made it out to be. I have some bumper and front end damage, but hopefully nothing that will force my car to be off the road for more than a day or two . . .
1264. moonlightcowboy 7:59 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
TS, imo, steering would suggest a nwest movement. If it did and there was a weakness there like you're talking about, sure, I think it would be possible to follow that weakness. Let's see what the visibles show.


My thinking also....100% thanks
on the WV it looks like it dose have a WNW movement should be interesting to see what happins gots to go finish the roof im out
What's more, Belize City now has winds ENE at 18 mph.

If the COC was inland West of BC then the winds would be out of the W or WSW.

An ENE wind for BC could only be produced by an offshore low creating an onshore wind flow
Baha, looks like the "evil twins" have been lurking! LOL (glad damage was not so bad!)
belize city winds have been out of the NNW all morning long...but i think its broken because it has said 6mph for the last day and a half...but it did show a windspeed and direction on the 30th between 2 and 5 pm, so i dont know what to make of it...so put those together with the wind direction from further south....something is def. happening out there....

what is everyone thinking?...

oh, and by the way...good morning everyone...lol:P
1268. kman

This is more compelling than the sat images right now.

However, as I said last night, I'm taking a wait and see attitude with this system. I've been caught off guard at least once already . . .
Kman i think there leaves little doubt that a new Surface Low has formed with those stats coming from Belize City.
Updated Belize City wind now from the N at 7

No way there is a COC West of there.
So do we have to 2 circulations? Or now just the new one?
Well coffee time then Golf

Will be back this afternoon. Have a great day all
Thanks, K'man. Hit 'em good!
Hey wait Masters isn't on vacation
significant cyclones aren't supposed to form

I forgot to post this yesterday but we had a severe storm come though in one minute it went from barely raining to sheets of rain. this caused instantaneous flooding lightning hit every 15 seconds

worst storm since Isabell
it appears to me that the centre of Arthur has relocated off the coast of Belize and moving NW. there is no way the circulation is west of belize. recent sat pics show the circulation off shore
Good Mroning all

I have updated my blog to address Arthur's twist, my June outlook and a surface circulation that has form along the EATL wave.

LINK
I still think the Belize reading can be "explained away" by GScot's hypothesis of the smaller vortices in the larger area of low pressure (i. e. centred around 18 / 91).

I'm going to go get coffee and come back when the visibles are clearer.
Just wanted to wish everyone a Happy Hurricane Season!
Surface obs indicate that a circualtion is east of Belize City...NW winds being reported in Belize, not mention the convection orientation on satellite imagery.
the gfs seems to be hinting at something south of Cuba down the road..Is that leftovers of schizo Alma/Arthur? Or something else?
1285. IKE
Darn satellites aren't updating and haven't been in 2 1/2 hours..........
Current Weather Conditions:
Roatan, Honduras
(MHRO) 16-19N 086-31W 2M

Conditions at Jun 01, 2008 - 08:00 AM EDTJun 01, 2008 - 07:00 AM CDTJun 01, 2008 - 06:00 AM MDTJun 01, 2008 - 05:00 AM PDTJun 01, 2008 - 04:00 AM ADTJun 01, 2008 - 03:00 AM HDT
2008.06.01 1200 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 KT)
I don't see what you're referring to presslord
i def. think that there is a low level center pulling west over the Yucatan....and a mid level has been left behind...with our blob...it also seems the blob has wobbled a little east or northeast a lil bit this morning...

just watch this loop for the low level swirl almost in the dead center of the screen and then watch the blob... RGB Authur Loop
it's long range...pretty far out...I think I'm gonna resolve here and now not to start playing that game...Consider this my solemn vow not to address any model more than five days out....
456
i am waiting for a QuickScat of the area east of Belize. i believe the centre over land is a weak system and the one off shore will take over. convection is consolidating and i also think that the mid level circulation is trying to get to the surface. the movement nw will bring the system into the gomex and could be a threat to the gulf states. what are your thoughts?
1291. IKE
watchingnva....that loop is 2 1/2 hours old.....
I think old Arthur is poof and the new Arthur has emerged with that E wind out of Roatan.
yea, and what the hell is going on with the sats....its been sunny here for hours ...wheres the updated frames and the visibles...
Didn't a similar thing happen to Gabby last year? The center was in the north part of Gabby then a mid-level center developed in the more intense convection and by the next advisory because dominant?
Good morning - I see the new "feathers" of Arthur is keeping everyones attention.
watchingnvw, interesting loo. Certainly, the weaker rotation is over land. It's quite obvious there's rotation over water, too, and that rotation, convection is much stronger as well. I don't see how the NHC (of course they're the pros) can miss not identifying the new surface rotation and direction as well. Again, we wait and see.
ike....that may negate the movement of the blob....but it doesn't change the fact you can see the low level swirl over the Yucatan........
First visible pic
1299. Ohio91
i have a question.
if a new center forms will it be to far away from the old center to keep the same name and become bertha or not?
I am located on the Island of Caye Caulker, Belize. Caye Caulker is about 18 miles N of Belize City and 9 miles offshore. The Lat Lon is 17 44, 088 02. It does look to me like there is individual circulation in the dense overcast area East of us. Very interesting!

Current wind on Caye Caulker at 6:20 Am local time is from the NNE at 13-16 knots. Barometric pressure is at 1009. Currently no rain but we have had over 6.5 inches in the last two days.
Check this pic out....look at the banding starting.......wow
Up to date satellites. Link
1303. IKE
1297. watchingnva 7:29 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
ike....that may negate the movement of the blob....but it doesn't change the fact you can see the low level swirl over the Yucatan........


I understand what you're saying...it's just frustrating with the satellite not updating...again...
1290. stoormfury 8:25 AM AST on June 01, 2008
456
i am waiting for a QuickScat of the area east of Belize. i believe the centre over land is a weak system and the one off shore will take over. convection is consolidating and i also think that the mid level circulation is trying to get to the surface. the movement nw will bring the system into the gomex and could be a threat to the gulf states. what are your thoughts?


Well formation back offshore...opens a new a baseball field, but the ridge is very potent and the next strong trof that could affect it arrives in 108 hrs, which is pretty far out.
1305. KRL
Latest Shear Map - Click To Enlarge

1306. IKE
1300. momiller 7:33 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
I am located on the Island of Caye Caulker, Belize. Caye Caulker is about 18 miles N of Belize City and 9 miles offshore. The Lat Lon is 17 44, 088 02. It does look to me like there is individual circulation in the dense overcast area East of us. Very interesting!

Current wind on Caye Caulker at 6:20 Am local time is from the NNE at 13-16 knots. Barometric pressure is at 1009. Currently no rain but we have had over 6.5 inches in the last two days.


Thanks for the info!

Hmmm...NNE winds...interesting.
1300. momiller, nice report. Thanks!
Southeast wind at buoy 42056. Link
IKE...im right there with ya man on the the sats not updating...getting quite annoying...

and momiller, i 2nd the thanks for the info...
NNE winds....def offshore.
This is where the Navy centers Arthur...


I know we're waiting (im)patiently on good visibles, but this is just too compelling imo.



GOES 12 water vapor loop. You may have to click play. To me, this shot says there's new rotation and likely a surface low now over water. Very easy to see the dominant circulation and convection.

Ohio91 - as long as it stays in the same basin, and is made from any type of the remnants of Arthur, the name will stay Arthur.

They renamed from Alma to Arthur because Alma dissipated, and a new circulation formed Arther.
1313. IKE
1310. Weather456 7:43 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
This is where the Navy centers Arthur...


Uh...there's nothing there. LOL....

It's all east of Belize.
1301. TampaSpin 12:34 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
Check this pic out....look at the banding starting.......wow


This thing is definatly over water and strengthening. When will the NHC acknowledge the fact that theres a new COC?
1315. IKE
Thanks everybody for the alternative satellite images....
1316. Ohio91
thanks zoomiami, thats what i thought just making sure.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 01/1530Z
D. 19.5N AND 92.0W
E. 01/1800Z TO 02/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


I think they will fly into the new blob if that flight still occurs they may wait to relocate the center till they fly
Ike you see the banding on the SE side very impressive.


850mb streamlines suggests a nw movement.
1321. IKE
1319. TampaSpin 7:50 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Ike you see the banding on the SE side very impressive.


Yeah...I see it...NHC needs to straighten this out on their next update.
They canceled the flight into Arthur today.
Nvm

1322. WPBHurricane05 12:52 PM GMT on June 01, 2008 Hide this comment.
They canceled the flight into Arthur today.
Action: | Ignore User


ok maybe they will plan a new one into the blob
They canceled the flight into Arthur today.

See post 56 on this blog.
1326. crownwx
Try this link for closeup visible satellite loop: Link
Its not hard to see the new COC on Visible loop.....lol
nice shot crown...with those visible frames...it would seem that it is right up against the coast...not too far off...will wait for more frames before movement.
Maybe they canceled the flight b/c they don't know where Arthur is
1313. IKE 8:44 AM AST on June 01, 2008

yeah, i think they havnt adjusted since its the first visible image since 10 hrs ago.
Is it possible that the COC will keep moving back over water until the Storm finds a more conducive direction to move? I.e. the high breaking down when a trough moves through in a few days...
I can see NHC people running from one Computer to the other.......LMAO
AL, 01, 2008060112, , BEST, 0, 181N, 904W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 225, 175, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARTHUR, M,

it is back to a tropical depression but I think they will name 91L as an invest in the BOH
Nope it will still be Arthur.
1336. IKE
18.1N and 90.4W...nothing much there.
in about 10 min. we will get another new Sat. pic.
1336. IKE 9:08 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
18.1N and 90.4W...nothing much there.


IKE stop wishcasting for a spin in a location.....ROFLMAO
1339. IKE
What was the COC, according to the NHC...is no more....from the looks of it.
1340. IKE
1338. TampaSpin 8:10 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
1336. IKE 9:08 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
18.1N and 90.4W...nothing much there.

IKE stop wishcasting for a spin in a location.....ROFLMAO


lol.
1342. IKE
1341. watchingnva 8:12 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
hey IKE...at least with those coordinates they got the low level circulation down pat...lol


Yeah...lol.
1343. IKE
System east of Belize is looking pretty good on the 1245 UTC visible.
Alma Arthur headed back to the Pacific. Will this be a storm with three names. Sex change?
1343. IKE 9:15 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
System east of Belize is looking pretty good on the 1245 UTC visible


With that new visible you can see the whole atmosphere turning around the new Arthur...very impressive.


GOES EAST IR loop from Mauna Kea Weather. It may take a minute to load, but worth the wait.

Surely, this clears up doubt as to where rotation is. I think the original "land-named" and "never seen" water "Arthur" has gone pooooofff, and we're seeing outflow overland now from the new, reincarnate Arthur now over open water and gaining strength.
1347. Patrap
The Season iz her!!!
Ike Arthur has to be near Storm statue in its new location......IMO
1349. IKE
Formerly Alma...then Arthur...now Arthur's twin?
Mawnin', Pat! Yep, it's here and how's that "cane" state treating you? I'll bet Jxnville will never be the same again with all that crew together! ;P
1300. momiller 8:33 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
I am located on the Island of Caye Caulker, Belize. Caye Caulker is about 18 miles N of Belize City and 9 miles offshore.


Cool! Welcome to the blog! Are u stationed there, or a short term resident? (We're always trolling for local informants LOL.)
1352. Patrap
I think we shattered some local records on the BEach yesterday,,,SHuttle Launch oooh's and ahhhh's were a plenty.
I heard that stormjunkie passed out drunk on the beach last night...don't know if it's true...just sayin'....that's the rumor....
I don't see the new Arthur doing to much as Shear northward is quit high.
1355. Patrap
Yup presslord,..and if you hear a rumor that I was somehow a BAker and MAde roses for the Wedding cake,..there completely untrue.
1353. presslord 9:25 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
I heard that stormjunkie passed out drunk on the beach last night...don't know if it's true...just sayin'....that's the rumor....


He's a junkie would you expect anything less....lol
1357. IKE
1350. moonlightcowboy 8:23 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Mawnin', Pat! Yep, it's here and how's that "cane" state treating you? I'll bet Jxnville will never be the same again with all that crew together! ;P


Here ya go....Jacksonville kid...Lynyrd Skynyrd........Link
I just can't wait for sj to get back...gonna have to buy him a beer and get all the scoop...
1359. Patrap
Do they have BAil Bondsman in JAx,,,anyone?
1360. IKE
1359. Patrap 8:28 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Do they have BAil Bondsman in JAx,,,anyone?


lol.
Do I need to fly down there and drive sj home?
Arthur?

Arthur?
Steering layer maps update every 3 hours is this correct.
1364. IKE
Upper level divergence with the blob east of Belize...

Link
1365. IKE
1363. TampaSpin 8:38 AM CDT on June 01, 2008
Steering layer maps update every 3 hours is this correct.


I think so.
1350.
1352
1353.
1355 - 1361.

All I can say is "Lawd, Lawd, Lawd . . ."

LOL
1364.
Theres lower level convergence too!
Arthur is definitely deteriorating because of the interaction w/ land. The question is, will we see a split, like we saw w/ Jeanne in 2004, or will it just completely disintegrate?
hi everyone
i see Arthur may be splitting


Not alot but its enough to call the blob a ts
Wind shear is over 20 knots over the blob in the Caribbean... Thats not too favorable.
1368. BahaHurican 9:42 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
Arthur is definitely deteriorating because of the interaction w/ land. The question is, will we see a split, like we saw w/ Jeanne in 2004, or will it just completely disintegrate?


You don't think the split hasn't already occured?
Is that Mona Kea link supposed to take a while to load?
any ideas as to where the new Arthur blob may go?...and if it did get a name it would be Bertha and not a continuation of Arthur...right?
I think the new center is just NE of the Island.
It would still be Arthur because it is part of Arthur.
I believe it would keep the same name. Its not a new system thats forming it would just be a relocation of the center of circulation. When systems interact with land the center can jump around multiple times.
1373. Yes, Baha. Sometimes it loads quickly, other times not so fast. Maybe refresh helps. It's definitive-looking imo.
Just NE of the Turneffe Islands and maybe even further North is the COC IMO.
1380. IKE
New blog folks.
Even if the center relocates or has relocated offshore it would most likely move back onto land. Additionally, wind shear is not too favorable over the area. Arthur better have one more trick up his sleeve if he wants to stick around much longer.
noobs... theres a new blog
I just watched TWC tropical update with Dr. Lyons and he said Arthur was dying inland and was nothing to worry about. BUT, he started talking about the moisture to the East of Arthur and how we may, "see something pop up and move toward the keys in the coming days. but not to affect the rest of the Gulf states..."

... Is there any model showing this?
1377. SouthDadeFish 1:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2008
I believe it would keep the same name. Its not a new system thats forming it would just be a relocation of the center of circulation.


So if the center that the NHC is tracking were to some how make it to the BOC and redevelop and this new center were to develop could we possibly see two arthurs. i know its highly unlikey (i cant even locate the old center on satelite loops) and that the stronger one would probally just "sufficate" the weaker one, but if that senario did happen could we have 2 arthurs?


Alma Arthur and a new name in the Pacif. The Atlantic side wont amount to anything.