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Alma dies without causing a major disaster; tornadoes rip Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:03 PM GMT on May 30, 2008

Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.

There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.


Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.

Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.

The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.

Jeff Masters
TIV 1 under thunderstorm
TIV 1 under thunderstorm
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Osbourne Kansas Tornado
Osbourne Kansas Tornado
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Storm Chasers with eerie skies
Storm Chasers with eerie skies
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ok, NNE based on that TCW.

I was going by the GHCC image I posted. Again, I am clueless because I did not get to see the vis.
btw, if you haven't stopped by JP's blog on the TOP 25 STORMS and their impact, please do! He put a lot of work and effort into these postings. Very informative and entertaining, too.

GR8 work, JP, thanks!
Under which white dot?
1004. jpritch
Hmm... What's up with the blob that's centered over Tabasco and whipping its way toward the new low? Is it starting to spin, or is that just an illusion?
- CDL, ur welcome.

- SJ, not sure about that. Sats do show some low level westerly flow still. The tops you say are closer, and I'm not sure that checks with the 200mb flow. I tried to catch a chart a bit ago, but the site won't let me in. Earlier, the 200mb flow was w to e. Also, earlier the center was (I'm thinking I remember this) about 50 miles or so offshore. Right now, to me, it looks fairly close, but hey, my eyes are foggy, too.

Something funny about the CDO? Nothing would really surprise me about this system. It truly has been a very great first chase of the season...evil twins and all!
Looking closer @ IR2, seems to be just north, meandering around the anaylized low.
1008. Drakoen
The convective diagnosis also favors convection ahead of the wave axis with the tropical wave of the Africa coast. The 925hpa-700hpa shear shows increasing shear ahead of the wave axis in the upstream.
Well that ship left. I'm gonna crash a while too.
Mother Nature is ruthless coming back to the path of Dean last year.
Photobucket

...impressive looking!
1012. Drakoen
I'm gonna go too. Good night (or morning) everyone!
Drak in looking at the atl waves, I'm not seeing much convection associated with those east of 40W. What am I missing?
Have a good sleep, Skye! Thanks! U2, Drakoen and any going! Enjoyed it.
And for all intensive purposes, Alma went in where Felix came out and 90L (ALMA) is going in where Dean went in.
Please don't put me on ignore, Drakoen, MLC.

anyways, do you guies think there's a chance of the NHC calling this a TS before landfall?
1017. Drakoen
1013. CatastrophicDL 6:15 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
Drak in looking at the atl waves, I'm not seeing much conveciton associated with those ast of 40W. What am I missing?


The one by the African coast. The one that MLC just posted.
Night All. This ones going to be around for a while, I'm sure I'll see ya.
Have a good sleep, TCW...good obs, thanks.

Thrilla, no worries! Just the troublemakers! :)
Great input y'all.

SThrilla....

The white/coldest cloud tops in the center of the blob off Belize.



That should be a movie title...

The Blob off Belize
Now, SJ, with that shot, looks like you're right!
Drak, so when discussing a wave axis, what exactly is that? I understand the location of the wave, but right now all convection is south of the wave in the ITCZ. So is it a naked wave? Does a wave that has convection have a better chance of survival? Sorry so many questions! Lots to learn this year still. Thanks!
The not seeing the visible is still throwing me off mlc, but you can see the curved ban to the W of the coldest clouds, but it looks almost like that is breaking off...

Strange....
1024. Drakoen
One thing before I go most of the global models 00z runs take the system into the BOC. The GFDL thinks that 90L could become a tropical storm in the BOC.
1025. Drakoen
1022. CatastrophicDL 6:21 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
Drak, so when discussing a wave axis, what exactly is that? I understand the location of the wave, but right now all convection is south of the wave in the ITCZ. So is it a naked wave? Does a wave that has convection have a better chance of survival? Sorry so many questions! Lots to learn this year still. Thanks!


So many questions lol. That can all be answered here:Link

If you have anymore questions leave them in that blog and I will answer them later in the morning.
SJ, to me now, the center on visible looked like it came out of almost the left corner there of the Bay of Honduras. See that lil white spec to the sw of the larger white blog in your pic? That's where I think the center of cir was earlier and at one time looked on the loops to have moved considerably closer to shore. But, your shot is pretty amazing. If it has moved, that sure makes a difference. A good visible loop in the a.m. should be the tell all, heh?
86.5 and 18.5 ???
Could be the shear SJ, 30kts. Last I looked there were returns, I could see in a dry slot that is quickly filling in, just to the N (Correction) of the anaylized low at around 17.8N 87.3W
- CDL, Draks blog is good and has good answers to questions. Also, here is something earlier that 456 posted that's explains/shows it nicely against the backdrop of a wave:

52. Weather456 10:43 AM CDT on May 30, 2008
Here's an example of the use of satellite imagery to track waves...notice how the cloud line (follow the arrows) form an inverted v pattern (upside-down v). This wave has a large wave-span or wave length.




Also, notice how most of that convection is in front of the wave axis.
Yep mlc, it will either by that duh...moment or the ahah moment when we have the first few frame sof vis.

I like the rainbow at night. Not for cloud tops, but for circ..
1028. That's kind of what I was thinking at the 200mb level, the winds were blowing w to e.
I see the shear TCW, but I still think it may have shifted some....

Sure wish we had a Belize radar...That would solve it all now!
W to E?

Looked to me like it was E to W...

I need to just go to bed and then check the vis in the morning. lol. Everything will be so much easier to see then!
I don't think there's any doubt that it's moved ever so slightly north, and may very well moved further east, too. It may be moving, or another vortice, like its been known to do already!
Drak and MLC thanks for the wave education. I had better see if I can sleep. The kids will be up early in the AM. It will be interesting to see what morning brings!
Actually, taking shear into account and looking at the IR2, we're looking at a tilted center SW to NE.
I'm sorry. I stand corrected e to w upper flow. There was some low level westerly flow.
Right TCW, but I think the lower is trying to slide under the upper in a position to the NNE of where the low was analyzed.

Thanks mlc, the E to W was throwing me off :~)

I am off to bed.

Great discussion and some good pre-season tracking y'all!

Man, that's some intense convection with 90L this early in the year.
Shear map does look W to E mlc.

Looks like the tops are moving E to W though if you ask me.

But asking me at this time of the morning is likely foolish!

Yes, SJ, but grab a WV loop, too, it's kind of turning the winds back to the west.
MLC when I tried your link it had a date of 2003 on it?
LMAO, CDL!!! It sure does, heckuva of a coincidence isn't it! It's late! UGH! I think I'm going to hit the had, too, before I have a CAT 5 hitting Rhode Island! ;P
Well goodnight all! I'll check in tomorrow!
Have a good sleep, CDL. Enjoyed it!
Thanks MLC! Later!
From the 205 TWD: (in part)

Caribbean...
the remnants of tropical system Alma is in the Gulf of Honduras as a 1005 mb surface low near 17n87w moving NW and will move inland over Belize and the Yucatan over the next 12 hours.

Broad upper ridge remains over the Caribbean anchored over the Gulf of Honduras covering the area W of 67w and maintaining deep tropical moisture mainly W of 80w.

Moderate/strong easterly trade winds remain across the entire basin.
1. SST's are barely warm enough for 90L to develop, looking at the map featured on WU

2. Inaccuweather already has this as a TD

3. There's only 10 knots of shear currently over the system

4. I have stormkat, scott, fire, and stormyeyes ignored

5. It's not even going into the BOC as models take it too far south over land

6. the NHC very seldomly calls TD's unless they have a great chance of becoming a TS, so I doubt they'll name this one unless winds pick up

7. Everybody was calling me a troll last year, it's good to see that I'm not the "troublemaker" this year in the eyes of the regs

8. Tornadoes tore apart a pre-civil war museum in Nebraska yesterday

9. I don't have java enabled so the loops aren't working for me dammit

10. It is almost onshore and the system will move ashore before developing.
1050. 7544
i think something is about to change with 90l stay tuned
what kind of thing is about to change

will it dissipate or be TD/TS 1?
I think 90L is NOT what we should be worried about. The flare up over tabasco has outflow boundaries, so it is a typical land based thunderstorm. That being said, it shows that some of the instability that Alma brought is still there... and about to emerge over the BOC. 90L is a mixture of polar outflow, combined with moist inflow piling up where it runs into the yucatan. If it moves north a little, and Alma's remaining instability makes it into the BOC, then we could easily see regeneration there.
The anticyclone is still present, outflow and moisture is still present, and the mid level low is about to emerge. The BOC is warm enough for weak or subtropical development. Maybe, (probably) I'm wrong, but the possibility for regeneration certainly exists, and NOT in the gulf of Hondouras.
P.S. I've been lurking since 03'. I'm not an expert, but I'm not a newbie. Expect a Mexico landfall if the above happens.
mexico landfall as TS Arthur??
Sst's

the SSTs are only marginally favorable
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008


...THINGS GET INTERESTING NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT APPEARS THAT
SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER IN
PLACEMENT BUT BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM IN THE GULF WITH A GREAT DEAL
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED...BUT IT BEARS
WATCH.



CMC is still showing this track for 01E/90L.


another invest for the Arabian Sea possible.. the sea has become active yet none of the invest has been able to form into a depression or higher.
lol, invests in the arabian sea...


So guys, do you think we might have to crank this up this year for TWC?

storm alert


Or, do you think they'll leave it at this?


tropical
National Hurricane Center - Miami Florida
Special Tropical Disturbance Summary
09:00 UTC May 31 2008

An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Former Cyclonic Storm Alma is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near the coast of Northern Belize. The low is moving slowly westward and is expected to move inland over the Yucantan Peninsula during the next few hours. However, satellite imagery and surface observations indicate this system is becoming better organized and a tropical depression could form if the center remains offshore this morning. Even if no development occurs, localized heavy rains and floods are possible during the next couple of days over portions of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatamala, Belize and Southeastern Mexico.
JSUK

EX TS-01E (Alma) is almost back on the GOM and 90L will have to wait till Alma Goes Away. Alma looks quite good and healthy at this time though!
We may see Arthur soon.

1063. cg2916
000
WONT41 KNHC 310904
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. THE LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...
GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WONT41 KNHC 310904
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. THE LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...
GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Will 90l Become TS Alma-Arther if it turns into a ts?
Honestly, with the strong area of high pressure north of the system in the Gulf of Mexico holding strong, 90L/TD1 has nowhere to go but west-northwest or west. The northwesterly component of motion should end soon. If the remnants linger in the Bay of Campeche though, the ridge may break down in a few days or so as per the models and allow the system to turn to the northeast. That's just speculation though, and I wouldn't be surprised if 90L never became anything at all except a short lived TD.

Only time will tell, though. 90L is certainly running out of room, though.
Its too bad quickscat is down.
Will 90l Become TS Alma-Arther if it turns into a ts?

Arthur.
morning 456 90l didnt move much over night
quiksat is down?

What about asicsat?
OMJ Hurricane season is tomorrow and were already about to receive Arthur Looks like a repeat of 007
( where Arthur is Barry ) We already have a strange hurricane season

Just in case what are the chances Arthur will form in the next 48 hours


Not looking quite so good )=
1071.

Currently not very good....

Its looking like its dieing but the circulation is intactish....

The convection is already De-gradeing if you see post 1072
1074. IKE
00Z ECMWF........

Link
yeah covection over land but to the east of 90l its still building
1075. Makeing it look half a tropical storm XD

Its developing some massive bands.... on the east side...

EDIT:

THE BANDS HAVE JUST JOINED ONTO THE MAIN SYSTEM!
000
AXNT20 KNHC 310501
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 16N. THIS WAVE AXIS BASED
ON MIMIC-TPW APPEARS TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE RATHER
THAN THE TRUE WAVE AXIS AND MAY NEED TO BE RELOCATED LATER.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM
THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 15N WITH A WEAK SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST TO THE W ALONG 41W S OF 10N. ANY CONVECTION REMAINS
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND FURTHER SOUTH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS AT A VERY
LOW AMPLITUDE AND SO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SATELLITE
SIGNATURE IS INDISCERNIBLE. ANY CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N19W 1N30W 4N41W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-23W...FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
36W-45W...AND S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 84W ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF
ANCHORED OVER THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ALMA IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS CREATING A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 25N ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS FROM THE S FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S
OF ALINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N94W ALONG
24N86W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CUBA. THE N GULF CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE N GULF/SE US AND COMBINED
WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE S GULF AND CARIBBEAN WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

CARIBBEAN...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ALMA IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N87W MOVING NW AND WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA W OF 67W AND MAINTAINING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAINLY W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 82W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND CUBA. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 82W. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N61W TO 26N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE SE US INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN WESTERN
SAHARA AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N37W. AN UPPER HIGH IS
IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N39W EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND DOMINATING THE TROPICS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W GIVING
THE REGION E OF 55W FAIR WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE



This kinda confirms that pressure rose a millibar last night.
Its currently classified as 1006mb surface low.
morning IKE see that low go up west florida on the ECMWF
Even if the High does break down it will have to deal with dry air.

ok I do not see a center of circulation with 90L
Latest Dvorak classifications for 90L (note that this is about 3 hours old now).

31/0845 UTC 17.8N 87.4W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
The center must be located over water; the system wouldn't have become better organized over night if it wasn't.
is this in danger of a US landfall can it turn that far north
1084. IKE
1078. severstorm 5:51 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
morning IKE see that low go up west florida on the ECMWF


I think that's a separate system from 90L...06Z GFS has 90L heading back into the east PAC....

Link
is this in danger of a US landfall can it turn that far north

The high pressure ridge currently extending west over Florida will likely continue to steer 90L west through the Yucatan and into Mexico.
So all, I noticed the new disturbance statement issued at 5am...is the center still offshore?
1087. IKE
06Z NAM has another system blossoming at 84 hours...south of western Cuba....

Link

NAM is not a tropical model though.
1088. guygee
Good morning all!

Here is the HPC's early model interpretation and discussion, meant as a compliment to Ike's posting of the model runs.
Interesting to see what the pros are thinking:

Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
349 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

VALID 12Z WED JUN 04 2008 - 12Z SAT JUN 07 2008

MANUAL PROGS CONTINUE TO RELY PRIMARILY ON AN ECMWF SOLN AS THE GFS TRENDS TOWARD ITS MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO OVER THE CONUS D4/WED THRU D6/FRI. THE CAN GLOB AND UKMET ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED AMPLITUDE AS WELL. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE WEAK ECMWF SOLN WITH THE H5 LOW IN THE NW ON D3/TUE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE OP MODELS AND THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLN WITH THIS LOW AND PREVENTING THE MOST HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE SEEN IN THE 00Z ECMWF. THEREFORE...BLENDED IN THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN TO CUT DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THE ECMWF AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE PD.

CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER OVER THE E PAC AFTER MID PD WITH THE 12Z/30 ECMWF ENS MEAN SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMT OF ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE E PAC INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF CNTRD OVER THE PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR A BROADER SOLN IN THE ECMWF ENS MEAN THAN THE OTHER OP MODELS OR THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN SHOW. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLN WHICH IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT...HOLDING ONTO A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/30 ECMWF AND GFS D 8 POS ANOMALIES INVOF 40N 148W AND 45N 70W BOTH TELECONNECT TO TROFFING OVER THE INTERIOR NW. THIS SOLN IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF...CAN GLOB...OR GFS. THEREFORE...THE D7/SAT SOLN WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN YET AGAIN...WITH THE 12Z/30 ECMWF ENS MEAN ALSO SUPPORTING THE TELECON BETTER THAN THE OP MODELS.

CLARK

I noticed the GFDL develops 90L and has it in the Bay of Campeche for a short period of time.
NHC's statement said a depression could form this morning, and dvorak T #'s are 1.5, the system has 30 knot winds and a 1005mb pressure, so it wouldn't surprise me to see development.
Check this out!!Link
1093. IKE
90L is still over water...it could become a TD.
Look at the wave that came off africa!

Look at the wave that came off africa!

They just keep getting more and more impressive...the GFS was placing a low along this blob a few runs back but has since dropped it.
I also did a dvorak analysis on 90L so yall can check it out on my blog.
Good blog post W456...that wave looks interesting.
In about a half hour or so we should get our first morning visible of 90L.
90L off the Navy site...could be interesting what might happen.
1101. IKE
1100. extreme236 6:31 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
90L off the Navy site...could be interesting what might happen.


Could be an upgrade coming.
Here is this graphic as well:

I see no reason for them to have taken off if they weren't going to give it an upgrade, so we will see.
1104. guygee
Re:1094. TheWeatherMan504,1095. TerraNova
Those waves coming off of Africa are most impressive indeed! I am starting to wonder if we will see an early and strong Cape Verde season similar to 1996. The strength and number of waves are just two factors. I think it would be an interesting comparison to see how other conditions are setting up this year compared to 1996.
90L actually looks kind of like Humberto did shortly before it became a TD.
-
1105. extreme236 11:40 AM GMT on May 31, 2008
90L actually looks kind of like Humberto did shortly before it became a TD.


OMG your right

Looks like 90L is making landfall Link

Could develop after it exits the Yucatan Peninsula.
I'm not sure if this means anything, but the NOAA FTP server has just put up a document labeled invest_RENUMBER_ep902008_ep012008.ren which has the system as EP 01 instead of invest 90. This may be an upgrade to TD status. Minimum central pressure is down to 1003 mb on the latest update.
EP 01 maybe means East Pacific 01???
1100. extreme236 7:31 AM AST on May 31, 2008
90L off the Navy site...could be interesting what might happen.


I dont think its permanent.

An invest is an area of disturbed weather peristing for more than 24 hrs and has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone and/or affect land/DOD.

DOD - Department of Defense
EP 01 maybe means East Pacific 01???

This FTP server is meant for the Atlantic basin. Server address (copy and paste into browser):

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
1113. Josh305
Hi guys,
I'm new here and just wanted to introduce myself. I'm just a huge weather nut and I have been reading this blog for about a year and a half especially after experiencing Hurricane Wilma and Katrina here in Miami. I figured I would join so that I may ask questions periodically.

I was curious if you guys all have degrees in Meteorology?
Good Morning.....
1109. TerraNova

Thats when they changed what became Alma from an invest in the Pacific to ep012008.
Any one have a link to one of them Cancun Radars?
I was curious if you guys all have degrees in Meteorology?

A few here do, and a few here are studying meteorology.
Thats when they changed what became Alma from an invest in the Pacific to ep012008.

Ya, you're right LOL I have to look at the date stamp next time. I skipped over the file labeled AL902008.invest. Current data for the invest (our invest) says it is still an invest:

AL, 90, 2008053100, , BEST, 0, 169N, 875W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
I don't think it means anything cause the date on it is May 29th
I was curious if you guys all have degrees in Meteorology?

AD in only tropical met...I choose to specialised in that area. If you must know...I suck at severe weather.
The mexican radars are down due to Dean but here is the cuban radar


Any one have a link to one of them Cancun Radars?

All of the radars on the Yucatan are currently offline. Link
bachelors degree in meteorology, journalism, hydrology.
90L is rather impressive..

That 90L does look impressive this am, and may even get to TD status in a few, but, not enough room for it to develop further before significant interaction with land.....
I agree weather456
At the SSD website, which satellite loops do u guys find better for floaters "Long or Short"
Its either stationary or drifting slowly.The weather channel is making a big deal about 90l.
1123. TheWeatherMan504 7:57 AM EDT on May 31, 2008
bachelors degree in meteorology, journalism, hydrology.


Bachelors degree in Political Science, "Imaginary" Degree in Tropical Meteorology.....Lol

Thankx Weatherman & Terra. I had them they were just at home? What a nice place that would be to be today.
Morning All.

31/0845 UTC 17.8N 87.4W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Chart Here

Close to TD status.
First good visible image

1133. Josh305
That's cool. I'm more of one of those idiots that go out and film hurricanes :)
Hurricane Wilma

I cant film hurricanes we don't get any
*sniffle*
Thanks 456. I am sure SJ is exited to see the first visible as well. He seemed to be going through a bit of a withdrawal last night
Josh305 i saw your video on youtube its good stuff.
I design/sell cabinetry lol.
Also:

I noticed that even if 90L does not become a depression before moving inland, the NHC's marine warning graphic says it could in the BoC.
Tropics "looking" rather impressive day before June 1st; I mentioned last week that sheer values will make or break this season; if the sheer stays relatively calm around MDR and closer to home in the Caribbean, we could actually see a few depressions/storms in June/June and "kick off" quite a Cape Verde season.....Basically a blob watching "heaven" this year....
That Tropical wave off of africa is very inpressive maybe 91L??
Josh305
welcome aboard
and no we don't all have degrees in meteorology
this is really just for all weather fanatics that specialize with hurricanes
1141. TheWeatherMan504 8:14 AM EDT on May 31, 2008
That Tropical wave off of africa is very inpressive maybe 91L??


Respectfully, I think it is way too "far out" and these CV waves needs to hold together a little longer......Would have to clear the African coast, and, move on Westward past the Azores with significant convection still intact....Could be a very long shot...
True TheCaneWhisperer but a day over the yucatan could kill it. EXAMPLE: Catagory 3 Hurricane Isadore sat over the yucatan for a day and it went from a Cat 3 to a 40 mph TS.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/1145 UTC 17.7N 88.4W OVERLAND 90L
Respectfully, I think it is way too "far out" and these CV waves needs to hold together a little longer......Would have to clear the African coast, and, move on Westward past the Azores with significant convection still intact....Could be a very long shot...

U mean cape verdes?
Agree Weatherman.

Due to the frequency and strength of these waves rolling off Africa, I am beginning to think we'll be on the high side of the predictions from the NOAA with the possibility of a hyperactive season they mentioned as well.
1147. Weather456 8:24 AM EDT on May 31, 2008....Yeah (CV = Cape Verde) as opposed to other types of "waves" (radiation, UV, etc...)
1150. Josh305
Can anyone recommend good software for tracking tropical storms? or just rely on what's on the Net? I mean I must have a hundred weather sites bookmarked.
Good morning
I am new here as well but I took have been lurking in the shadows for some time. My son is planning to go to either York U. or Dalhousie for Atmospheric sciences. I find the info and conversations here very informative.
Looks like 90L made landfall...will have to watch it if it makes it to the Bay of Campeche.
Morning Horse.
1148. TheCaneWhisperer 8:31 AM EDT on May 31, 2008......Yeah, no wishcastng here, or, hopng for a hyper-active, and potentially deadly season.....Just seems like low shear values (if it remains that way as this variable changes from week to week) will promote "lots" of blobs to develop this year (into what and where I do not have a clue)...And like in 2007, shear could "kick up" and kill the season in September....Anythng could happen but I'm leaning towards very active this season...
I find THIS graphic rather interesting as well.

THIS one too.

This one is interesting as well.
Looks like the ridge may be breaking down sooner than expected.
Latest QuickScat

1158. IKE
Long-term discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"Long term...
the back door front will be washing out over the forecast area at
the beginning of the period Monday night warranting slight chance probability of precipitation.
Its remnants will lift east of the area by Tuesday. The remainder of the
forecast period will feature deep layer ridging across the region
with the surface ridge axis near or just S of the Gulf Coast. Slight
chance probability of precipitation for mainly afternoon convection will be carried through
the period. Temperatures will remain 3-5 degrees above normal. Moisture
will begin surging northward from the tropics across the eastern Gulf and Florida
Peninsula on Friday and we will show increasing cloudiness for that
day. Looking ahead to next Sat, we could be looking a tropical low
just north of the Yucatan. This increased confidence that cloud cover
and rain chances will increase into that weekend."
1147. Weather456 8:24 AM EDT on May 31, 2008
U mean cape verdes?


I am so sorry; you are correct..I spent the entire day (took the day off) with a friend on the beach near Destin and must have gone through 15 assorted "beverages", am hung-over, and sunburned to a crisp this AM......Time for me to go right now (and get some coffee and recover)....Will only say this; the Gulf waters around Destin are crystal clear and beautiful right now, temps are just perfect for swimming (confortably cool to the touch), and high pressure in dominating in the Northern Gulf right.........Will see all later to tommorow......WW
1150. Josh305 8:32 AM AST on May 31, 2008
Can anyone recommend good software for tracking tropical storms? or just rely on what's on the Net? I mean I must have a hundred weather sites bookmarked.


Tracking the Eye

Eye of the Storm

They are good if you willing to buy a licsence. I have the former.

They are some others out there
Just analyizing what I see and stating facts WMW #1154.
1162. IKE
90L invest is back up on the NAVY site.
1154. weathermanwannabe 8:36 AM EDT on May 31, 2008 Yeah, no wishcastng here, or, hopng for a hyper-active, and potentially deadly season

1161. TheCaneWhisperer 8:42 AM EDT on May 31, 2008 Just analyizing what I see and stating facts WMW #1154.

Lol...My comment above was not directed at you at all...It is my same feeling (wishcastng aside) that this may end up as a very active season.......
TCW, can you explain what those images mean exactly? Is the high extending over and west of FL retreating?
Initial conditions for 12Z model runs

LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 88.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 87.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 86.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
One of the stations in central belize...the wind shifted and is now from the SW...indicating the circulation has made landfall near the northern border between Belize and Mexico.

Type these two stations in Wunderground search box at the top of this page for current weather near the center.

MZBZ - BELIZE, Belize
MMCM - CHETUMAL, Mexico
1167. IKE
System has been fighting land, off and on, for some time....
Good Morning to all,

I have been lurking on this site for 2+ yrs. I appreciate all I can learn about hurricanes and the useful links that you guys provide. I think the more opinions the better, since you can't always predict what these storms will do. Thanks for all the links, especially to Patrap, I find his amusing sometimes and learned to go to youtube to get an idea of some damage these storms do.
I live in FL and so I like to evacuate early if I know one's coming. I have a B.A. in Elementary Ed, decided not to do that I work in a mail room at a university and know some marine scientists and grad students in Remote Sensing.
Thanks again,

Morningmisty : )
Looks like the NHC has 90L moving kind of NWish. Should emerge into the Bay of Campeche.
90L is on land it could still form in the gulf though
12Z "early" consensus model suggests 90L will be in the BOC in about 24 hrs.

AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 0 185N 887W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 12 192N 898W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 24 195N 911W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 36 195N 922W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 48 193N 936W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 60 193N 946W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 72 193N 950W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 84 197N 955W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 96 206N 960W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 108 211N 966W
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 120 210N 974W
Notice that 90L is moving faster now...should allow it to emerge intact. Not many mountains in this region.
1173. SLU
Looks like we're in for a "hot" season this year. The wind shear is much lower than normal, SST's are high, the African wave train is active sending out 7 tropical waves in May!

Invest 90L has also made landfall near the Mexico - Belize border but I imagine it would have another shot at development once it enters the BOC.
1174. IKE
Long-term discussion from Mobile,AL...

"Guidance is advertising more energy diving south over the northern
Continental U.S.......but the upper high over Texas/mex hangs tough...deflecting
it well north of the southeastern Continental U.S.. its middle week on that the
range of solutions diverge. Guidance pretty much agrees with a system
developing over/near the Yucatan (remnants of alma?)...moving
northward (either northwest according to the European model (ecmwf) or NE according to the
gfs). Ensembles show a small range in the end result with respect to
precipitation chances the latter two days of the forecast...but even
so...the wettest solution still is only a chance. Have stuck with the
op GFS for now...favoring a wait and see attitude at this time.".....


I don't think it's 90L....I think it's another system.
1175. IKE
AL 90 2008053112 3 TVCN 120 210N 974W

That's almost on the Mexican coast......
The GFS model has another Low developing behind 90L. I thought that might happen with the left over wake of Low Pressure that 90L leaves behind.
1169. extreme236 9:05 AM AST on May 31, 2008
Looks like the NHC has 90L moving kind of NWish. Should emerge into the Bay of Campeche.


I posted my thoughts on that on my blog - I am expecting a NW motion in 48 hrs....afterwhich I am watching a ridge that is expected to build over Mexico/Southern central Plains. Also this cud pull a cindy - not trackwise - rather the center may jump and reform over water. Just have to watch and see.
1175. IKE

Yeah, that model has it going almost due west across the BOC.
I was looking at the DSHP intensity model which takes land into consideration, shows minor weakening at 12 hours, minor strengthening at 24 hours, but then back into land by 48 hours...but with the overall favorable environment that is enough time for development. It went from practically nothing to near TD status in just 24 hours so we will see.
Good morning everyone,

while reading back I saw a couple of new posters who asked questions or just wanted to be acknowledge. Welcome aboard!Caffinehog, morning isty, horsebootz, Another one said he had been lurking since 2003? well #053 Caffinehog, the blogs didn't start until April 2005 so you may have been getting weather info from here but not lurking on any of the blogs.

Another new one #1151 horseboutz,said her son was going to college somewhere and wanted some of you students to give her some advised. We have several Met grads here on the blogs and some are still in school.... hopefully they will answer your question later. #11168 Morningmisty, welcome and HI!

So to the oldies (including me) and the newbies, Welcome one and all, I think it is going to be an active and interesting season.

Keep the info flowing, I lurk when I can at work and cannot post.

Will check in later.

Gams
1181. IKE
1178. nrtiwlnvragn 8:11 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
1175. IKE

Yeah, that model has it going almost due west across the BOC.


This may wind up being the "A" storm in the Atlantic after all...if it can get back over water.
SHIPS is currently using BAMM for track, some of the other models are shifting northward, so there may not be as much land interaction.
Local news is saying that 90L this isn't over Mexico yet. On this site it shows the center of 90L well inland over Mexico.

Which one is it?
DSHP peaks it at 40 knots.
1185. IKE
Needs to go north of west to find water.
1186. IKE
1183. MasterForecaster 8:18 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Local news is saying that 90L this isn't over Mexico yet. On this site it shows the center of 90L well inland over Mexico.

Which one is it?


It's on land..you can see it on the visible...456 confirmed it with weather observations.
There is a little spin at 3N 45W that needs watched very closely...its pretty far south but, its looking very good.
90L is over Mexico now...will move into the BoC by tomorrow it seems.
Morning all :)
The GFDL says this will emerge over the BOC and become a weak TS.
The local Mets ususally report what has been reported.....they report alot of stuff thats hours old.
A 320 degree movement would be NW right now...definatly a contrast to the 270 degree movement yesterday.
does anyone have the spegettic model graphic?
the XTP wish i no is not a mode is pointing at TX why the CLP5 mode is point at LA

GFDL may actually be about right with this system if it does emerge.
1183. MasterForecaster 8:18 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Local news is saying that 90L this isn't over Mexico yet. On this site it shows the center of 90L well inland over Mexico.

Which one is it?

IKE- It's on land..you can see it on the visible...456 confirmed it with weather observations.


Thats what I though too lol but for some reason my Local channel 10 thinks it's still over water and could be a tropical depression before making landfall. What the hell.

Is there a way to contact local met's and ask them if they're on drugs?
TAZ,
You are the BEST ! Thank you very much.

Gamma
You can see an amplifying trough in North Central Texas MF (Yellow Blob). Is it going to be strong enough to erode the ridge and create a weakness? That remains to be seen.
1199. IKE
1196....their just not paying close enough attention to what's actually happening...not doing their job, really.
Model consensus is for this system to move into the BoC for a period of time then back into Mexico.

CLP5 is a climatological model of where the system would go according to climatology.
1191. TampaSpin 1:22 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
The local Mets ususally report what has been reported.....they report alot of stuff thats hours old.


Sad but true I guess, Tampa.
Gamma your welcome
The NGPS track would keep it around longer.
extreme, thanks, I didn't know that!
wind shear is vary low right now where 90L is going they may say it could be olny a 40 mph TS wish could be a 75 mph hurricane with the low wind shear right now
The Hurricane Expo at MOSI starts today at 10. This is a great time to speak to mets and you get a lot of free stuff. I suggest if you live in Tampa to go.
but GSM, they should have one of us there to make sure they have fresh information at all times before they go on the air and look like fools.
1209. IKE
Long-term discussion from New Orleans....

"Long term...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) still show a rather strong shortwave trough
moving across The Rockies Wednesday into Wednesday night before
moving east to northeast across the plains Thursday into Thursday
night. Deep tropical moisture in enhanced southeast flow is still
forecast to surge out of the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of
Mexico...but the deeper moisture is delayed in its arrival to the
north central Gulf Coast...now not reaching our area until next
Saturday night or Sunday. Have cut back on some of the rain
chances in the day 7 to 8 periods."
gotta go fora while.. bb when I can.

have fun.
No problem Gamma :-)

Taz-Proximity to land should keep it from becoming a hurricane...it also wouldn't have much time as once it emerges from the BoC it would have to re-organize before it could even become a TS.
1212. IKE
1203. GulfScotsman 8:27 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
1199. IKE 8:25 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
1196....their just not paying close enough attention to what's actually happening...not doing their job, really.


i think that is a bit harsh. these people are reading copy that is 3 to 4 hours old.

trust me... they do not have their own in house wunderground geek staring at every 3 minute update on the live satellites and making analysis calls.


Harsh? GS...I don't understand you sometimes. As far as reading copy...just look at a visible satellite. Even at idiot like me can see that it's over land.
ok 236
1214. DocBen
It's looking more and more like 90L will become a Gulf storm. The frontal system working its way by here (Kansas) seems to give it a 'slot' to go NW and maybe even curve N.

Arthur ben Alma to be born tonight?
I will be watching for another Disturbance statement by the NHC...they will probably issue one at 11am so we can hopefully here what they have to say.
1207. XoendHoroeken 9:28 AM EDT on May 31, 2008
The Hurricane Expo at MOSI starts today at 10. This is a great time to speak to mets and you get a lot of free stuff. I suggest if you live in Tampa to go.

Iam attending the one down here in south florida!Look forward on meeting again with max mayfield and bryan norcross.Bill Read will also be attending.
My local mets are pretty good. They actually know what their talking about.
if 90L dos be come are 1st name storm of the season its going to be a vary long june and july
hi I have been lurking on these blogs for about 2 years and i was wondering what extreme236 thinks will happen to ivest 90l
1199. IKE 8:25 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
1196....their just not paying close enough attention to what's actually happening...not doing their job, really.


i think that is a bit harsh. these people are reading copy that is 3 to 4 hours old.

trust me... they do not have their own in house wunderground geek staring at every 3 minute update on the live satellites and making analysis calls
.


Why? Every second they're not on the air they should be checking up with whats going on in the tropics. Isn't that their job?
1222. IKE
probably could cut them some slack.

Yeah...ok.
1113. Josh305 7:49 AM EDT on May 31, 2008
Hi guys,
I'm new here and just wanted to introduce myself. I'm just a huge weather nut and I have been reading this blog for about a year and a half . . .

I was curious if you guys all have degrees in Meteorology?


How often have u been reading? By now even a casual reader would know the answer to this question . . . there've been so many fights in here about it. . . . LOL
1225. IKE
99.998763 % of the population is getting up this morning, reading their paper, and drinking coffee, thinking about far more important things in their own indivindual lives.

As well they should...same with me...my health is more of an issue...but, I enjoy following the tropics....that's why the other folks are on here.

hi i have been lurking these blogs for three years what do any of you think will happen to 90l
Weatherman122, from the information I have seen, it would appear 90L would move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico (AKA the Bay of Campeche). There, conditions would seem to be favorable for re-organization and possible tropical cyclone formation. The wild card with this is how long will it be over water when it gets to the Bay of Campeche. That will ultimately determine whether this becomes a tropical storm or not.
1228. IKE
90L does appear to be moving north of west.
if 90L dos not be come a TS then are 1st name storm would be june 5th for sure
What time does the shuttle blast off.
hey guys even if a tropical depression forms it wont live long...it sure cant go north cause of the blocking ridge...it will protect the la miss coast...the only way it could go would be into the yucatan and then die...so i wouldnt get to excited....its something to watch but the ssp are still kind of high down in that region.....stormkat
Well Taz it would be impossible to say when another storm would form. Its only June and climatologically speaking June storms don't pop up like storms in August would.
thank you extreme236
1224...lol GS you know what I meant. It's not like I'm blasting them for being wrong, its just that someone who supposedly has a degree in meteorology should be able to tell if a system is over land, thats all.
think that is a bit harsh. these people are reading copy that is 3 to 4 hours old.

trust me... they do not have their own in house wunderground geek staring at every 3 minute update on the live satellites and making analysis calls.


They should realize there was a TD right infront of there eyes.
i find this vary odd that we could see are 1st name storm here come june and june 1st is are 1st fun day of the hurricane season cant wait to see what the 1st Tropical Weather Outlook would say
1237. IKE
1234...

AMEN!
No problem Weatherman

I will be back shortly.
236 when we had june back in 05 we had a lot of storms
1160. Weather456 8:42 AM EDT on May 31, 2008

Tracking the Eye

Eye of the Storm

They are good if you willing to buy a licence. I have the former.


I have the latter. It's not bad for the price, and, while it doesn't update CPac,WPac, SPac, or Ind storms, it does allow you to track them manually.

They are some others out there
@ 1239...I can see that video being posted on here a lot this season...
i think we have a rainmaker on our hands and thats it.now down the road i see something interesting developing in the nw caribbean that really bears watching.....i think this could threaten the gulf coast sometime late next weekend.....all the ingredients are there...stormkat
1244. HGFL2
Good morning everyone. I just wanted to post and say that I am the same person as HurricaneGeek, just under a new handle. =)
Even in 2005 we only had 2 storms in June.
1246. IKE
1243. stormkat 8:48 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
i think we have a rainmaker on our hands and thats it.now down the road i see something interesting developing in the nw caribbean that really bears watching.....i think this could threaten the gulf coast sometime late next weekend.....all the ingredients are there...stormkat


Some of the models are hinting at that.....
Looks like Discovery blasts off around 5:02pm if my calculations are correct...
yes i know ike and that will bear watching....it could turn ito something really big....stormkat
StormKat i agree with you for once. I think the left over low pressure that 90L is leaving will make an interesting week next week....time will tell, but seen it to many times.
Morning, all.

I agree 90L has some impressive clouds with it, but unless the COC can get all the way out into the BOC, I don't think it will make it all the way to TS again. I also don't want to imagine how deep it may have gotten if it wasn't over land as much as it has been. That's a powerful little circulation centre there.

On the tropical waves coming off the African coast, I seem to recall quite a number of similarly, or even more, impressive waves early in the season last year as well. However, last year the CAtl conditions remained so unfavorable that even as far down the alphabet as Karen systems just couldn't survive. The interesting question for this year is whether the shear and ULLs etc will relent early in the season so that these waves can survive and even thrive on the crossing. If so, that prediction of 15/8/4 could become a reality.

TTYL
yes tampa the shear will also be low all the ingredients are coming together......stormkat
1253. IKE
1249. stormkat 8:54 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
yes i know ike and that will bear watching....it could turn ito something really big....stormkat


Time will tell....
BTW, Taz,

Don't forget CLP is the climatology model. In previous seasons storms forming at this time have been prone to head almost due north towards TX/LA . . .
Baha the models say 90L will get to the BoC, so it will be interesting to watch.
13hrs59mins
till 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season begins
i agree with you baha....stormkat
Good morning all

One other thing to remember about this year is that the neither the Atlantic nor the Caribbean have produced a system so far. 90L originated in the EPAC from the remnants of Alma and would not exist today but for the climatologically early start in the Pacific.

IMO 90L should not be considered as indicative of anything for the Atl season. Further, even in years that got off to early June starts in the Atlantic basin there have been periods of weeks after that with little or no activity.
1259. IKE
1256. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:00 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
13hrs59mins
till 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season begins


Props to KEEPEROFTHEGATE...he's been on here all off-season with the countdown...it's almost here!
1255. extreme236 9:59 AM EDT on May 31, 2008

If it just scrapes into the BOC, I think the proximity to land will hold development to a minimum. It needs to make a fair loop out there to benefit. 'Twill be interesting to see if it does so or if, following GFDL, it sticks close to the coast.
1261. HGFL2
1255.
Do they mean 90L still as 90L or 90L as leftover energy to possibly form 91L?
BTW, in case people did not see, I am the same person as HurricaneGeek, just under a new handle.
Thanks.
Hi everyone!
Wishcasting for rain in East Lake Palm Harbor, FL.
Go Eagles, MasterForecaster!
Look SE on this map or 5N 45W. Very tight convergence in the lower levels...looks like shear could fight it.
1264. IKE
KMAN...that's an impressive swirl over Belize...not bad for May.
Ike,

I agree but it came from the Pacific
1258. kmanislander 10:02 AM EDT on May 31, 2008

The most interesting thing about 90L for me in terms of forecasting is that quite a number of the models did forecast a low pressure system crossing Central America and reforming in the Car / GoM.

I'm still looking towards the CV season as the focus of major activity.
1269. IKE
1265. kmanislander 9:04 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Ike,

I agree but it came from the Pacific


True....odd track for a system.
lol ike....im also worried about the huge blocking high that will form over texas in the next 7 days and leave us wide open for business...im talking about la miss and alabama....this is not good so early in june guys....stormkat
1272. hahaguy
I'm still looking towards the CV season as the focus of major activity.

ya going to be an interesting one.
Hi Baha

Yes, the models did but they also had a very strong storm over Florida this weekend !
there is no 91L how can we have leftover energy form 91L if we had not had 91L
Right now if i was a betting person i would say we will have our first name storm by June 15th somewhere in the Carribean.
its the weekend and yet no strong storm for S FL LOL
1277. HGFL2
Taz, leftover energy TO POSSIBLY FORM 91L. ;)
Look at post 1261
If that high wasnt there LA might have had a storm simalar to either Arlene in 2005 or cindy in 2005.
I think 90L has a higher chance of development right now then something that could be a week away thats not even here yet...lets not start talking about LA, MS, AL being hit by a ghost storm. The mechanics could be there however by that time frame but we will see.
1280. IKE
1273. kmanislander 9:06 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Hi Baha

Yes, the models did but they also had a very strong storm over Florida this weekend !


You're right..the GFS did...now it's latching back on to possible GOM development in the 10 day time period...ECMWF is too.....
Ike

You know my opinion of models. While there is no denying their usefulness I pay very little attention to them beyond 48 to 60 hrs out.
1273. kmanislander 10:06 AM EDT on May 31, 2008

I was trying to say I don't see 90L in May as an indicator of abnormally high levels of June activity. But I think (now that u have raised the point LOL) that models do have some value, so long as you don't depend on them EXCLUSIVELY. It's like getting a second opinion.

i agree ike the scenario im looking at is not good for us...we will have to wait and see ..im talking 7 days out...stormkat
Baha, we are on the same page. My comment was perhaps too short !
1286. IKE
1271. stormkat 9:06 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
lol ike....im also worried about the huge blocking high that will form over texas in the next 7 days and leave us wide open for business...im talking about la miss and alabama....this is not good so early in june guys....stormkat


I've noticed the wind flow from the SSE in about a week....and the isobars are rather close.
oh i see what your talking about POSSIBLY FORM 91L

am a jackass now
Kman look at post 1263. That is one strong wave that is currently under light shear but, heading toward stronger shear.
These models are gonna drive us all crazy this summer...
yes HGFL2 there could be
1281. kmanislander 10:11 AM EDT on May 31, 2008

I tend to think of them as a list of possible scenarios. They could happen, but not necessarily.

Anyway, I'm out. Ya'll have a good one!
1243. stormkat 1:48 PM GMT on May 31, 2008

I see that to stormkat. There is a fair amount of energy trapped south of this ridge axis and regardless of what happens with the remnants of Alma there will remain some potential for development in that area. The erosion of the western periphery of the ridge as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS just might allow this energy to stream north.
No jackass your a TAZ........lol
1294. IKE
1289. extreme236 9:14 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
These models are gonna drive us all crazy this summer...


You can't help but look at them...sometimes their right on...like Dean and Felix.
yes they will 236
Tampa, it looks that way. Also heading for South America LOL
ok . TampaSpin
The models tend to do better once something gets going. At least that is my recollection
we would have problems if the high was not there
You have posted 5037 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 25619 comments in all blogs


whats see oh gets too 30,000 commats 1st this year
shuttle launch @5:02P edt today
1302. IKE
The GFS didn't have this blocking ridge keeping 90L from going north.......not a week ago it didn't.
no extreme im very concerned down the road in the nexy 7 days everything is setting up and its not good at all this early in the season...i know you guys remember audrey well thats the type of scenario thats setting up...stormkat
1296. kmanislander 10:16 AM EDT on May 31, 2008
Tampa, it looks that way. Also heading for South America as well LOL

Kman, actually steering flow keeps it over water and it moving WNW. Bears alot of watching IMO.
and with light wind shear in the gulf right now this needs to be watch
1262. tampaENG 2:03 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
Hi everyone!
Wishcasting for rain in East Lake Palm Harbor, FL.
Go Eagles, MasterForecaster!


Maybe we can wishcast a superbowl this year...
Yep, the models can be right, but every time I look at the models and see a consensus on something I get an expectation that something will form and it drives me crazy lol. I much rather prefer watching models after something forms rather than before lol
taz that whats worries me the wind shear in the gulf will be gone in the next 7 days...it will be open for business....stormkat
Tampa,

I always understood the steering flow for waves to be the low level Easterly flow, essentially due West. Given its current position I would be surprised if it were to enter the Caribbean . Perhaps the Northern end of the wave might but I would expect most of the energy to go ashore on the coast down there.
StormKat i agree with you, i suggested this yesterday. I have seen this too often. I think 7 days we will have something to look at also...
1311. Drakoen
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 8N.
SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N16W TO 4N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM 9N17W TO 7N22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-16W.
Kman ok.
Well I am out for now.

Be back later
1314. IKE
What an influx of moisture going into the Yucatan off of 90L...if not for land, it would have been classified.
Predicting wind shear in the Gulf 7 days from now is no better than the throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded.
1316. IKE
1307. extreme236 9:22 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Yep, the models can be right, but every time I look at the models and see a consensus on something I get an expectation that something will form and it drives me crazy lol. I much rather prefer watching models after something forms rather than before lol


It had Alma forming..days before it happened...although some had it forming on the Atlantic side.....
the sst are starting to heat up in the GOM and i dont like that...that spells trouble for anyone along the gulf coast...i hate to see what they will be in 7 days.also we will have a trough digging in from the rockies by thursday thats what is going to push this huge high over texas protecting them and leaving us wide open.......stormkat
Good morning everyone. I just wanted to post and say that I am the same person as HurricaneGeek, just under a new handle. =)

Got tired of being called "geek" for short, did you? lol.

Morning all.
Yep thats true Ike...I say I prefer to watch models after rather than before but yet I do anyway :-)
Did you see the last image of 90L? I would say it is just a tropical depression... I believe sometimes to judge the range of a storm by only winds could be incorrect. What do you think about that?



I have located the low center myself, writting the "L".

Regards from Spain.
Stormkat, SSTs won't really be any warming in 7 days than they are now. SSTs in the Northern Gulf are barely 26 degrees C and are even less off the Florida Panhandle.
Good morning folks!

I see we have Invest 90L, What i have observed is the fact that land interaction is NOT really taking a toll on this disturbance...It actually seems to still be organizing further despite it's land interaction....This could be due to it taking in moisture from both sides of the Yucatan and living off of it....I would not be surprised to see a Tropical Depression declared while it is still over land. Organization is at or very near depression status.
Oh yes, 90L certainly looks impressive but definatly isn't a TD now...but if it holds up like that across its trek of the Yucatan than it would allow for quicker development in the BoC.
Ike the other thing to consider is that the models had alma forming on the atlantic side, maybe this is what the models were saying.
extreme i really hope you are right ....i know the gulf to well ...sst can jump up in a heartbeat i know ike will tell you that....stormkat
CA, I doubt it will be declared a TD overland, but my guess is that it may have briefly been a TD before landfall...we have to watch it in the BoC. Land has taken a toll on the convection of the system but the overall structure is intact, but then again its only been over land for about 2 hours or so.
1328. Drakoen
90L is able to main its broad circulation center because the Yucatan Peninsula does not have a mountainous topography which means there is little orographic (topographic) lift.
1329. IKE
1320. jphurricane2006 9:31 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
so in other words IKE, the models had a gender conflict lmao

No its a boy....No its a girl....No its a boy....No its a girl

lol


Yeah...Alma's trying to have a sex change now....
SSTs in the Gulf probably can't support much more than a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. It would be doubtful to see anything stronger in the Gulf for another month or so once the SSTs increase more.
What time In British Summer Time are the Atlantic advisory's for this season?

Including Intermediates...

1327. extreme236 2:36 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
CA, I doubt it will be declared a TD overland, but my guess is that it may have briefly been a TD before landfall...we have to watch it in the BoC. Land has taken a toll on the convection of the system but the overall structure is intact, but then again its only been over land for about 2 hours or so.
Action: | Ignore User


I doubt it will to but i wouldnt be surprised.
1334. IKE
1322. extreme236 9:32 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Stormkat, SSTs won't really be any warming in 7 days than they are now. SSTs in the Northern Gulf are barely 26 degrees C and are even less off the Florida Panhandle.


Extreme...they've warmed up at least 3 degrees in the last 2-4 weeks.....

Panama City, FL 82.0 °F
Apalachicola, FL 84.0 °F
Grand Isle, LA 82.9 °F
I know its not a criteria Jp, but they typically don't declare a system over land. They have before though.
I saw someone posted a QuikSCAT plot earlier, but couldn't read the timestamp. Is it back up?

Can someone post a link to where there is current data?

JPL/NASA ftp site only has data through day-of-year 148 (today is 152)
1329.

ROFLTD (Rolls over floor laughing then dies)

I thought 90l was formed from the ENERGY of Alma not the actual structure.

Isn't Alma back in the epac as that tiny blob

1338. IKE
1325. plywoodstatenative 9:34 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Ike the other thing to consider is that the models had alma forming on the atlantic side, maybe this is what the models were saying.


Could be.
1339. Drakoen
A good upper level anticyclone is aloft, vertically stacked with the mid level rotation of the coast of Africa. In other words the wave is establishing an outflow aloft.
Oh it certainly wouldn't surprise me CA.

IKE, thanks for posting those temps. I didn't realize they were at that level quite yet. The one SST map I used showed only 24-25 degree SSTs off the coast of part of the Panhandle.
My gardenias are crisping at the bud
(like in 2004...oh please, no).
Nature has a way of making up for imbalances.
Of course, everyone talks about '05 being such a bad year, but in Central Florida, we had two hurricanes within two weeks and can't remember when the third came around, maybe three or four weeks later.
Of course we had tons of rain then, starting in August, and before it was dry like this. Just an observation.
Drak - could you post the link to those graphics please. TIA
1311 Drak,

Thats nothing new...been there for a good while now.

===========================================

If 90L was still over water it would be Td 01...impressive


IKE, thanks for posting those temps. I didn't realize they were at that level quite yet. The one SST map I used showed only 24-25 degree SSTs off the coast of part of the Panhandle

SST does have a diurnal cycle of about 3 degrees F on the shallow, weak current, continental shelf areas. Some of the SST sources do not capture this. The best way to see it is to go historical with some hourly buoy readings.
1346. IKE
1340. extreme236 9:40 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Oh it certainly wouldn't surprise me CA.

IKE, thanks for posting those temps. I didn't realize they were at that level quite yet. The one SST map I used showed only 24-25 degree SSTs off the coast of part of the Panhandle


Those are right at the coast...it is slightly cooler out in the gulf a few miles....upper 70's....200 miles out it's in the low 80's too.
1347. Drakoen
1344. Weather456 2:43 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
1311 Drak,

Thats nothing new...been there for a good while now.


lol. I was just posting what I saw. I didn't see that last night so....
Extreme and StormKat i was in the GOM fishing this week the waters are getting warmer DAILY as the overnight temps raise NIGHTLY. Heck the temps at night are sometimes not falling below 75deg. So if the high is over 90deg. Warming is happening very quickly and you will see a big rise this week..
1343. nrtiwlnvragn 2:43 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
1336. atmoaggie

12.5km QuikSCAT Winds


Thanks. Must be the storm-centered data generation software that is broken.
1339. Drakoen 10:40 AM AST on May 31, 2008
A good upper level anticyclone is aloft, vertically stacked with the mid level rotation of the coast of Africa. In other words the wave is establishing an outflow aloft.


Sounds like ur expecting development? Not disagreeing with u but I thought I was the only seeing those observations.
looks like 90L is half way overe land i say it will be back overe water with in the next 4hrs or so and if it stays like this why overe land for the next 4hrs then a good bet well have a TD may be a 40 mph TS
1354. IKE
GOM warming up.......

through May 29th.........

Link
1355. Drakoen
1351. Weather456 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
1339. Drakoen 10:40 AM AST on May 31, 2008
A good upper level anticyclone is aloft, vertically stacked with the mid level rotation of the coast of Africa. In other words the wave is establishing an outflow aloft.

Sounds like ur expecting development? Not disagreeing with u but I thought I was the only seeing those observations.

It's one of those thing where I like to wait and see. Also I like to follow climatology which seemed to work well with Alma.
1356. Drakoen
1348. jphurricane2006 2:45 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
hey drak, you have that Eumestat link from last night?


Link


This would turn it into a tropical storm.
456,
Weren't some of the models forecasting some development off Africa?
well if all this plays out in 7 days someone along the la ms are alabama coast is goint to have there bells rung...we will see....stormkat
Can cyclones form on land I know Cindy became a depression on the Yucatan but is this storm large enough to gather all the moisture it needs from the Gulf and Caribbean?
Yeah Drak...I c ur point

Impressive wave

OK, so I guess what you are telling me is that there is no way 90L will get a name before June 1st? I really thought we would have a named fish storm before then.
Taz it made landfall just 2-3 hours ago. Its only moving at about 8-10 mph.
This would turn it into a tropical storm.

I think QuikSCAT is instantaneous winds. For a TS speeds a one minute average would be used. Gusts can easily be 60% higher than the one minute average.
Great EUMETSAT link Drak.
Ike look how much the Nor. GOM warmed in 7 days.......wow and those that say the next 7 days won't mount to much is crazy.......LMAO
The NHC will be able to provide us with more updates on the tropics at about 2am when the first Tropical Weather Outlook is issued.
1365. Its the Aiscat (or however you spell it) one...
ok 236
1358. sporteguy03 10:50 AM AST on May 31, 2008
456,
Weren't some of the models forecasting some development off Africa?


yeah...they are showing more or less showing nothing above TD/maybe weak TS status

ECMWF
yes tampa i agree and thats what is worrying me right now....with that trough expecting to dig down by thurs and strengthen the high over texas leaving us for the sharks....stormkat
1373. IKE
1367. TampaSpin 9:55 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
Ike look how much the Nor. GOM warmed in 7 days.......wow and those that say the next 7 days won't mount to much is crazy.......LMAO


My forecast has highs from as high as 94-96 the next 5+ days! The GOM is heating up.

1359

How you feeling ST?
1369. IpswichWeatherCenter 2:57 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
1365. Its the Aiscat (or however you spell it) one...


Says "QuikSCAT" on the bottom of the plot. Now I am confused. Is Aiscat one and the same now?
Like to chat all day but, got things to do....everyone stay CIVIL....peace out....
stormkat it sounds like your making a bit of a doom forecast. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.
1378. IKE
Always unreliable NAM model(12Z), with moisture in the NW Caribbean in 3 1/2 days......

Link
OK, gotta go. The boss is wondering just when I'll get off the puter. Later, all.
Nice link Drak. The high res pages and the shift and zoom features are pretty cool.

Thank-you!
1381. Drakoen
There's no consolidation of the convection of the coast of Africa which is probably the only thing that would give it potential to be tagged as an invest.
1375

Yeh but quikscat is down so and thats the latest one....

Now i'm confused.. and it said Aiscat (or however you spell it) on the site i got it from

1383. IKE
1377. extreme236 10:03 AM CDT on May 31, 2008
stormkat it sounds like your making a bit of a doom forecast. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.


Can't say he doesn't put it on the line...I've got it circle on my calendar ST(nka stormkat)...we'll see if your right.......
1384. Drakoen
Yep, SJ! I'm favoring EUMETSAT more lol.
img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg" alt="" /

I think Alma/TD01L has stopped moving...
1332. IpswichWeatherCenter 2:38 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
What time In British Summer Time are the Atlantic advisory's for this season?

Including Intermediates...


Umm...don't quote me, but i believe that once a storm forms advisories will be issued at 5am/pm and 11am/pm with intermediates at 2am/pm and 8am/pm Eastern Daylight time...So that comes out to 10am/pm and 4am/pm for the advisories in Britian and 7am/pm and 1am/pm for the intermediates...
no extreme im just saying what is the set up the next 7 days and all the ingredients are coming together...the sst are rising fairly quickly...i just know the GOM and what to expect..im not saying anything about a cat 5 but yes a cat 3 is very possible when it hits the warm waters ..it can take off like a rocket...just concerned right now...stormkat
is the big H set up to be has strong has it was in 2007???





The first one is closer to 90L...

This confirms that 90L is moving
Perfect Circulation



Geography of the Yucatan

1391. IKE
GZ NOGAPS takes 90L into Mexico...fires it up some after leaving the Yucatan....

Link
1386:

thanks....

IS there a gap where the nhc post there advisorys on there site from Issueing?
1393. IKE
Check out the low spinning south of Bermuda......

Link
NHC has issued a new TC marine warning graphic. They are saying TC development now possible in the 36-48 hour time frame.

if we do have an active cape verde season the east coast is definitely in the bulls eye this year...the azores high has set up shop way further north then it was last year and thids will let troughs in august turn the storms into the east coast...it will follow the weakness...so if i was on the east coast i would sure pay attention if their is limited dust storms on the african coast...we have to wait and see for middle of june and july how things will develop....stormkat


looks like NHC says 90L is a=half way across the yucatan.....
000
WONT41 KNHC 311519
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO FORM IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ON SUNDAY.

EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR..GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME
1396. That is no way right...
WONT41 KNHC 311519
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO FORM IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ON SUNDAY.

EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR..GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

1400. Drakoen
Yes 90L is speeding up the low level flow behind the system is increasing.
If it keeps moving at that speed we may actually have the potential for a tropical cyclone tomorrow.
1402. Drakoen
1398. IpswichWeatherCenter 3:21 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
1396. That is no way right...


Yes that is right.
I've been noticing THIS trend out of the GFS lately. Bermuda High bounces around a bit and returns to that general location @ around 1020mb.
if 90L is speeding up that means it wont probaly curve back to the NE when it gets in the BOC its going to mexico.
Its supposed to go to Mexico anyway.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=18.5N&lon1=88.7W&uom=E&dist=500&ot=A&time=3


winds are dropping...

IN 90L

Whats going on with 98A?
1407. guygee
1365. atmoaggie 2:54 PM GMT on May 31, 2008
I think QuikSCAT is instantaneous winds. For a TS speeds a one minute average would be used. Gusts can easily be 60% higher than the one minute average.

Hey atmoaggie!
I am thinking that since QuikSCAT is looking at reflections from capillary waves over a 12.5 km^2 cell (at best, they are really sub-pixeling that), wind gusts are getting averaged out pretty well. How that translates into an "N minute" average wind I have no clear idea. Interesting question to be answered there!
All and all, if this develops it won't be hard for it to reach TS status, considered the already low pressure (1005mb) and the earlier QS winds suggesting TS strength.
1410. Drakoen
Photobucket
I didn't form in the Caribbean everyone contradicted me and I was right it didn't form (yet) ARTHUR OMJ OMJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good Morning Everyone,

Just checking in and see what is going own with the storm in the caribbean.... Some good reading and Great Links in here today thanks....

Back to lurking....

Have a good day and will be back later....

Taco :0)
My question is: Say the Low,T.D.,or T.S. moves into mexico, Will the rains move towards texas or just keep on heading West?
456,i don't think Dr. Masters requires a degree in meteorology to participate in this forum. But instead to share our knowledge and experiences. Good for you and those that are studying the subject. Im sure you are a great asset for those of all with less oportunities to do so.
1415. Drakoen
New Blog is up!
New blog.