WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

All Systems Go for High-Impact Winter Storm across Eastern U.S.

By: Bob Henson 9:18 PM GMT on January 21, 2016

Everything from tornadoes to paralyzing ice to blizzard conditions will be unfolding over the next several days as a massive storm system, dubbed Winter Storm Jonas by the Weather Channel, takes shape over the eastern half of the United States. Computer models have doggedly pointed to this scenario for the better part of a week, and the model consensus on the big picture continues to be unusually strong. The crosshairs for the heaviest urban snow appear to be on the Washington, D.C., area; more than two feet are possible there and nearby. Blizzard warnings were in effect Thursday afternoon in and near the Washington, D.C., area. The crystal ball is cloudier on where the storm’s north edge will end up--and that location is crucial, since it could be near New York City.

This sprawling storm is only now beginning to take shape across the South. Upper-level energy diving into the region will soon be cutting off from the main jet stream, leaving a powerful upper low in the Southeast that will move slowly northeast--in typical nor’easter fashion--along the East Coast. Along the way, a surface low located in northern Louisiana on Thursday afternoon will be succeeded by a new surface low predicted to develop just east of the Delmarva Peninsula by Saturday. That second surface low will team up with the upper-level low near the Gulf Stream and intensify rapidly over the weekend.

Below is a rundown of the key impacts expected from Jonas, followed by a closer look at potential snowfall amounts over the megapolitan area from D.C. to New York.


Figure 1. 24-hour odds of at least 0.25” of freezing-rain accumulation during the 24 hours from 06Z (1 am EST) Friday, January 22, 2016, to 06Z Saturday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Freezing rain and ice across mid-South
A large swath of the mid-South from eastern Arkansas to southern Virginia is in line for accumulations of ice on Friday into Saturday, as freezing rain develops on the north side of the still-evolving winter storm. The bull’s-eye for highest icing risk appears to be Charlotte, NC, where the timing could hardly be worse: the city is playing host to the NFC championship game on Sunday between the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals. Odds are better than even for Charlotte to get at least a half-inch of ice, which could be a devastating amount for this large urban area. Major disruption to game-related activities over the weekend is a strong possibility, and thousands of people planning to travel to the area for the game may end up disappointed by massive air and road gridlock across the East, although the worst of the storm will be over in Charlotte by the scheduled game time.


Figure 2. At midday Thursday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center was calling for an enhanced risk of severe weather through Friday morning along the central Gulf Coast, with a slight risk in northern Florida and southern Georgia later on Friday.

Severe weather along the Gulf Coast
Thunderstorms popped up on Wednesday night in Oklahoma atop low-level air close to freezing, a sign of the potent upper-level storm heading toward the East Coast. Storms were intensifying across northern Louisiana into north Mississippi on Thursday afternoon, and these should continue to work their way east across the lower Mississippi Delta through the evening. Low-level moisture is not quite as plentiful as it was during the holiday-week severe weather of late December, but very strong upper-level dynamics will largely compensate. High winds, large hail, and heavy rain are all possible, along with a few tornadoes. The risk of strong tornadoes appears relatively low. (Sharp-eyed scrutinizers of Figure 2 will notice the area of thunderstorms on Friday along the northern California coast, a region getting quenched this month by plentiful rain courtesy of Pacific storm systems.)


Figure 3. WunderMap depiction of surface winds at 8:00 am Sunday, January 24, 2016, based on the GFS model run from 12Z Thursday, January 21. Wind speeds are in knots; add 15% for miles per hour.

Coastal flooding along the mid-Atlantic
A coastal flood watch is in effect for the period from late Friday night to Sunday morning along most of the New Jersey and Delaware coast. WIdespread moderate flooding is expected, with some localized areas of major flooding. High waves of up to 15-20 feet just offshore will pound the coast, along with winds gusting to 50-60 mph or more. Beach erosion is a near-certainty, and some road and property damage is possible. The threat is being compounded by the full moon on Saturday night, which is adding 1-2 feet to the regular tidal cycle. The highest astronomical tide is on Saturday night, with tides about a foot less on Saturday and Sunday morning. Due to the storm’s timing, all three of these cycles could produce storm tides (astronomical + lunar + storm-driven) of around 7-8 feet across southern New Jersey and northern Delaware.

Storm surge expert Hal Needham has more on the coastal flood threat in a Thursday morning blog post. “I do not expect that this surge event will be one for the record books,” says Needham. “Although the winds will be howling from late morning until after dark on Saturday, the duration of this wind event will not be long enough to really get a big surge setup. So in places like coastal New Jersey, don't expect water levels to approach historical levels reached by Hurricane Sandy or even the 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm.”

Last but not least: Big snow for the Northeast urban corridor
Below are probabilistic maps drawn from several NWS offices, showing the low-end, mid-range, and high-end expectations for snowfall from this storm. By going to the higher-res versions linked from each caption, you can view the individual totals shown on the map--but it’s important to focus on the large-scale expected patterns of snowfall rather than the point-source projections.


Figure 4. Low-, mid-, and high-end snowfall amounts (in inches--see legend at top) projected for the region around Washington, D.C. as of 2 pm EST Thursday, January 21, 2016 for the period from 1 pm Friday to 7 am Sunday. For higher-resolution images, see the NWS/Baltimore-Washington website.

Washington, D.C. may end up with a truly historic snowfall. The mid-range amount shown below would be the city’s second heaviest on record, topped only by the Knickerbocker storm of 1922. Expect mesoscale banding to generate the heaviest snow in strips oriented from southwest to northeast. These bands could be only about 30-50 miles wide, but snow on either side would still be significant. There is some chance of a brief changeover to sleet toward the Delmarva Peninsula, but any changeover in or west of D.C. should not greatly affect snow totals.
From the NWS maps above:
Least to expect in D.C.: 8”
Mid-range: 24”
Worst-case: 33”



Figure 5. Low-, mid-, and high-end snowfall amounts (in inches--see legend at top) projected for the region around Philadelphia as of 2 pm EST Thursday, January 21, 2016 for the period from 1 pm Friday to 7 am Sunday. For higher-resolution images, see the NWS/Philadelphia website.

Philadelphia should have more trouble getting its second-highest storm total of all time than D.C., as its two highest amounts are 31” (Jan. 6-8, 1998) and 28.5” (Feb. 5-6, 2010). Compared to Washington, there is also more low-end uncertainty in Philly, but the area is still at high risk of a high-impact storm.
From the NWS maps above:
Least to expect in Philadelphia: 6”
Mid-range: 17”
Worst-case: 28”



Figure 6. Low-, mid-, and high-end snowfall amounts (in inches--see legend at top) projected for the region around New York City as of 2 pm EST Thursday, January 21, 2016 for the period from 1 pm Friday to 7 am Sunday. For higher-resolution images, see the NWS/New York City website.

New York City is perhaps the toughest forecast call of this event. The local NWS office issued a blizzard watch on Thursday, and it should be seen as just that: a watch, rather than a warning. Watches indicate where a particular event is possible, but not yet expected with confidence. As late as Thursday morning, there was huge model disparity in placing the north edge of the heavy snowfall, and that north edge will be a sharp one. As a result, New York City could get as little as a nuisance event or as much as a city-crippling storm. Subsequent model runs will be crucial in narrowing this range of uncertainty. Note that a blizzard is defined not by snow amounts but by at least three hours of high wind (frequent gusts or sustained winds of at least 35 mph) and poor visibility (no more than 1/4 mile). These conditions could be met in or near New York City even if snowfall amounts are relatively low.
From the NWS maps above:
Least to expect in New York: 2”
Mid-range: 12”
Worst-case: 20”


In summary...
All the ingredients are coming together for a blockbuster winter storm over the highly populated urban corridor from Washington, D.C., toward New York. The 0Z Friday suite of computer models tonight will be bolstered by data from dropsondes being released this evening by a NOAA Gulfstream-IV hurricane-hunter jet. Once we get to Saturday, short-range models such as the HRRR will become increasingly useful in pinning down the location of mesoscale bands as they evolve, as well as the crucial north edge of the storm.

I’ll be back with a new post by 3 pm EST Friday afternoon. We’ll also be launching a live blog tonight (watch our main WU page for a link) that will run through the duration of the storm. At 4 pm EST Thursday, WU meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be joining me for a live-stream discussion of the storm on a special installment of “This Week in Weather”. You can watch the show and submit your questions through a link that’ll appear at show time on the This Week in Weather page. Don't forget to follow our Twitter and Facebook feeds too!

Bob Henson

Severe Weather Blizzard Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 493. Climate175:




Kentucky all blue with snow!
Roanoke, Virginia has been reporting heavy snow already.
Looks like some wx headed into the Tampa and Naples area before too long ...

Just issued a severe thunderstorm warning just north of Fort Myers
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Charlotte County.
Florence, SC mainly rain. Not so lucky north and west of here. Looks like a severe ice storm for parts of northern SC and NC. Wind picking up as well. Should be some good surf on the coast tomorrow but I doubt I will be able to get there as I think everything refreezes tonight. Good luck all in the path of the storm.
I think the blog is starting to get a lot of traffic. The site seems to have overloaded several times this morning already.
Quoting 508. HurricaneDevo:

I think the blog is starting to get a lot of traffic. The site seems to have overloaded several times this morning already.



Yes, I've been unable to connect several times.
Not only the blog. The website itself is having issues. Not a good time for the website to be going down.
Huge beach erosion and possibly another storm next week. Surf is going to be huge OBX into New England.

Quoting 477. hydrus:

Those bright purples are 95 kts....


512. MahFL
Quoting 510. Sfloridacat5:

Not only the blog. The website itself is having issues. Not a good time for the website to be going down.


It's always the same, when a severe wx event is on the web traffic go's sky high, it's one of those things that is very hard to handle IT wise.
we are in Summerfield FL..between Ocala & The Villages..bans of torrential rain moving through along with almost sunny bright spots in the cloud cover..no wind at all..YET..temps holding around 61F
All sleet with a few drops of freezing rain in central NC. Had a dusting of snow before it changed over. Radar is showing it's still snow, but it's not. Appears that the mid levels are warmer than earlier modeled.
well it sucks on wu today cant seem to get on keeps hanging no upload of pictures today
516. MahFL
Quoting 512. MahFL:



It's always the same, when a severe wx event is on the web traffic go's sky high, it's one of those things that is very hard to handle IT wise.


500,245 visitors today.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
851 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY AND QUITE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTION SHEAR. SPEED SHEER IS NOT EXTREMELY
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL NEED SOME BREAKS IN SHOWERS/CLOUDS TO GET
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INDUCE ROBUST CONVECTION. ALREADY SOME
SPINNING STORMS IN WATERS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH SHOULD CROSS MID-AFTN.
DECENT SHOT THAT SVR/TOR WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT A SURE BET. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS WAS RAISING
NEAR-TERM POPS BASED ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER REGION.

Quoting 515. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well it sucks on wu today cant seem to get on keeps hanging no upload of pictures today


Great timing, as always.
A little out of date

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BECOME A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER STORM FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

A DEEPENING TROUGH IS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ALABAMA AS A
1004MB SFC LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL
RADAR SHOW EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SE US WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO GA/FL PANHANDLE.
THE NRN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS REACHED SW VA/W NC THIS MORNING
AND IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR...NSSL WRF AND NAM
FIRE WX NEST HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH THIS TREND AND SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION 1-2 HOURS FASTER THAN PREV THOUGHT
TODAY...REACHING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA BY 7AM...NOVA/DC BY 1PM
AND BALTIMORE BY 3PM. SATURATION WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP SNOW LIGHT AT
THE START BUT AFTER 1-3 HRS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SATURDAY/FRIDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE
COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE BAROCLINC ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW WILL BECOME STRONGER TONIGHT WITH A 50-70KT EASTERLY LLJ
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS ARE GOING TO RAMP UP CAUSING
CONDTIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT...BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE NEAR ZERO
VISBILITIES AND DRIFTING SNOW. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE
TO 2+INCHES AN HOUR ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WARM AIR INTRUSION MAY
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND WITH SLEET MIXING INTO THIS REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK SOME OF THE MIXED PTYPE MIGHT MOVE IN AS FAR
WEST AS I-95 SATURDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND ESPECIALLY ST MARYS COUNTY WHERE THERE
COULD BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A FOOT OF SNOW AND A FEW
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE INTENSITY AND CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OUTPLAY MIXED PTYPE.

WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFC
LOW APPROACHES THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. NE WINDS 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. FURTHER WEST...WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF BUT STILL BE STRONG.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY MIXED
PTYPE ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THERE WAS NO CHANGE TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT.
CONSISTENCY IS STILL PRESENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH CLOSE TO TWO
FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH 1-2 FEET
EXPECTED ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. DUE
TO ELEVATION...2-3 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL A SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
MAINLY SHOWING HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER QPF. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
ALWAYS NECESSARY AND WILL BE DONE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
The ugly warm nose showed up hours earlier than expected and ruined yet another good snow storm! At 9am it's 25 degrees F with a mix of sleet and freezing rain! Boo! Our forecast of 6-8" went to 2-4" and we got 0.0" of snow! Just ice!
Hope everyone gets their snow to the North. These storms always have a few tricks to play.
Quoting 515. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well it sucks on wu today cant seem to get on keeps hanging no upload of pictures today


It is somewhat sluggish! Cmon guys and gals!
522. MahFL
Heavy rain here in Orange Park.
Quoting 520. Chapelhill:

The ugly warm nose showed up hours earlier than expected and ruined yet another good snow storm! At 9am it's 25 degrees F with a mix of sleet and freezing rain! Boo! Our forecast of 6-8" went to 2-4" and we got 0.0" of snow! Just ice!
Hope everyone gets their snow to the North. These storms always have a few tricks to play.


El Nino fueled storms seem to do what they want.......regardless of forecast.
Quoting 520. Chapelhill:

The ugly warm nose showed up hours earlier than expected and ruined yet another good snow storm! At 9am it's 25 degrees F with a mix of sleet and freezing rain! Boo! Our forecast of 6-8" went to 2-4" and we got 0.0" of snow! Just ice!
Hope everyone gets their snow to the North. These storms always have a few tricks to play.


Hi Chapelhill! It's icing on west side of Cary, north of Apex. Got ~1/4 inch ice on driveway and deck but trees OK so far. WRAL increased ice prediction... I was hoping for snow rather than ice.
525. MahFL
I40 ground to a halt. Why do people drive into a snow storm ?
Quite a few of the bouys south of new Orleans and north florida are reporting 30 to 35 knot winds ....
Light rain starting here at Kennedy Space Center, get ready for people driving with their hazards on....
Quoting 525. MahFL:

I40 ground to a halt. Why do people drive into a snow storm ?


There are workers out there who can't afford to miss a shift's worth of income. Been there, done that - at least for me at times when I only lived a mile or two away.
Overcast, dreary, drizzling, and 63º here in NE Fla.

Even the ducks look depressed.
. (dupe due to crazy server stuff.)
Storm dumps snow in South, moves north, menacing Eastern US
WP, By Ben Nuckols and Seth Borenstein | AP January 22 at 8:35 AM

Indeed, since you folks abroad awakened, access to WU became very difficult (really time for IBM to step in here). - Guess access will become only worse as the storm unfolds. Maybe we'll see each other again, let's say, Monday? Hopefully safe and healthy! Be careful. Thoughts from Germany.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #37
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC VICTOR (08F)
0:00 AM FST January 23 2016
=============================
Near Fua'amotu (Tonga)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Victor (998 hPa) located at 22.3S 175.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and surface observations. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Low level circulation center exposed. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. System lies in a high sheared environment. System is tracking west-southwest due to the sub-tropical ridge located to the south. Dvorak analysis not possible as convection sheared to the far east, MET=2.0, PT=1.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 23.8S 176.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 25.8S 176.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression) Out of Area of Responsibility

This is the final tropical disturbance advisory on TC Victor from the RSMC Nadi..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
HURRICANE WARNING
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CORENTIN (03-20152016)
16:00 PM RET January 22 2016
==================================
East of Rodrigues Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Corentin (979 hPa) located at 19.8S 71.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 21.9S 71.5E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 24.0S 71.9E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 27.7S 75.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.3S 77.6E - 45 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
================
Over the last 6 hours, the pattern barely changes, with the presence of a ragged eye. Last images suggest that the system is intensifying again. Upper level divergence is better on the polar side in opposition with the equatorial side. The southern outflow channel is in improvement.

Overnight and tomorrow morning, environmental conditions will remain conducive, allowing a deepening of the storm. It should be steered by the mid-level ridge in its east, and track progressively south, then bend south southeastward on Saturday.

From Saturday evening, ahead of an upper trough, the northwesterly vertical wind shear should increase. Sunday, south of 27.0S, the ocean heat content will become marginal. The low is forecast to weaken and begin an extratropical transition from Sunday evening. The weakened system may move temporarily westward over the northern side of the subtropical anticyclone building in its south.

This forecast is based on the available numerical weather prediction models, in rather good agreement.
Quoting 524. snow2fire:



Hi Chapelhill! It's icing on west side of Cary, north of Apex. Got ~1/4 inch ice on driveway and deck but trees OK so far. WRAL increased ice prediction... I was hoping for snow rather than ice.

You're just down the road!
NWS has removed the mention of any more snow for today in the Triangle. Sleet and then freezing rain for the rest of the day. High in the upper 20's F. Once we see more freezing rain, trees and lines will ice quickly with temps in the 20's. With winds increasing this evening and trees iced up, I expect power to go out for a large portion of Central NC.
Servers must be overloaded, slow this morning

Quoting 524. snow2fire:



Hi Chapelhill! It's icing on west side of Cary, north of Apex. Got ~1/4 inch ice on driveway and deck but trees OK so far. WRAL increased ice prediction... I was hoping for snow rather than ice.

You're just down the road!
NWS has removed the mention of any more snow for today in the Triangle. Sleet and then freezing rain for the rest of the day. High in the upper 20's F. Once we see more freezing rain, trees and lines will ice quickly with temps in the 20's. With winds increasing this evening and trees iced up, I expect power to go out for a large portion of Central NC.
Well the salt is down. Tried an experiment on a section of my driveway by making my own brine to see if it works. 12z NAM is still pushing for 30"+ here in Western Fairfax.
Third-try here this am for this post. The frontal passage across the Florida Big Bend this early am was essentially a non-event. Some wind gusts, thunder, and about 45 minutes of rain between 6:00 am to 7:00 and now under clear and sunny skies. Cannot say the same for the Eastern Seaboard downstream and hoping that folks in the path are hunkering down and ready with supplies and to stay off the roads this weekend:


SW Florida getting it again......no tornado's please!

Here in Durham NC have about 1/2" of snow but now it's ice coming down.
Quoting 536. 1Zach1:
Well the salt is down. Tried an experiment on a section of my driveway by making my own brine to see if it works. 12z NAM is still pushing for 30"+ here in Western Fairfax.
Hi Zach, my inlaws are in Fairfax. PLEASE keep us updated on conditions, thank you so much.
Nasty looking squall line getting ready to plow into FL

Quoting 537. weathermanwannabe:

Third-try here this am for this post. The frontal passage across the Florida Big Bend this early am was essentially a non-event. Some wind gusts, thunder, and about 45 minutes of rain between 6:00 am to 7:00 and now under clear and sunny skies. Cannot say the same for the Eastern Seaboard downstream and hoping that folks in the path are hunkering down and ready with supplies and to stay off the roads this weekend:





A "non event"? There are reports of a tornado touching down about 50 miles south of Tallahassee.
Quoting 454. barbamz:


Catching up with last nights posts, umm.
Washi, I officially cancel my plea earlier to send us a photo of a snow angel you've left in your snow after that upcoming blizzard. I'm afraid you won't resurface ... ;-)
I'm 5'3 and with snow drifts forecast to be as high as 6 feet I think i will wait to send the kids out there and myself.GFS has been showing 4 feet again for N.W D.C we'll wait until the snow compresses to come out to play in it.
Quoting 539. violet312s:

Here in Durham NC have about 1/2" of snow but now it's ice coming down.


Violet - what was decision on your charity event? Medium sleet for me. The ground is just warm enough to melt the stuff and refreeze. Put down de-icer... not doing much yet... I hope it sticks to sleet.
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Florida...
Link
Quoting 535. Chapelhill:


You're just down the road!
NWS has removed the mention of any more snow for today in the Triangle. Sleet and then freezing rain for the rest of the day. High in the upper 20's F. Once we see more freezing rain, trees and lines will ice quickly with temps in the 20's. With winds increasing this evening and trees iced up, I expect power to go out for a large portion of Central NC.


Yeah, it's gonna be tough sledding - wait - I don't even have a sled here in NC!
new plume of enso models out.....dynam average (yellow) now has it in la nina territory JAS


Quoting 543. tampabaymatt:



A "non event"? There are reports of a tornado touching down about 50 miles south of Tallahassee.
I am in North Leon County between Tallahassee and the Georgia State line; that report was on the coast near Caribelle and the same cells petered out by the time they got to me moving NE around 40 mph..................Not sure of damage issues south of me. 
54" Snow just SE of D.C.



Link
Quoting 536. 1Zach1:

Well the salt is down. Tried an experiment on a section of my driveway by making my own brine to see if it works. 12z NAM is still pushing for 30"+ here in Western Fairfax.
Oh wow you are more local than I thought. What part of Fairfax County are you in?
Last GFS run coming soon before really the now-casting begins.
scientist are having a hard time trying to figure out why Zika virus has spread so fast. its really alarming. in El Salvador the govt is warning against having children this next yr
And 50+ mph winds where that 54" is forecast to fall.



Quoting 551. Tornado6042008X:

Oh wow you are more local than I thought. What part of Fairfax County are you in?
Clifton/Centreville area
I think the very best way to make an overstressed and bogged-down website run faster is for a lot of people to come on and repeatedly postplain about the website being overstressed and bogged-down. That should really help. A lot. ;-)

Anyway, ye lovers of snow, enjoy today's festivities, for it may be awhile before there's a repeat:



Quoting 544. washingtonian115:

I'm 5'3 and with snow drifts forecast to be as high as 6 feet I think i will wait to send the kids out there and myself.GFS has been showing 4 feet again for N.W D.C we'll wait until the snow compresses to come out to play in it.
You could always do a stand-up snow angel against the face of a drift over your car. :-)
558. MahFL
Why are MODS posting long tropical cyclone updates when a major winter storm is hitting the Eastern USA ?
Quoting 544. washingtonian115:

I'm 5'3 and with snow drifts forecast to be as high as 6 feet I think i will wait to send the kids out there and myself.GFS has been showing 4 feet again for N.W D.C we'll wait until the snow compresses to come out to play in it.


I'm 6'4" and only expect the snow to be up to my neck in the worst case that we get the best banding
in the area. I'm expecting areal average over 2 feet (40 mile radius of DC center) but someone I think really is going
to get four feet in a band
The current SPC storm report chart is blank for the past 3 hour period (in terms of confirmed tornadoes or wind gusts over 65 knots); this will probably change as the day progresses:
today Filtered Reports Graphic

I wonder if they can increase the bandwidth available to this site. Still having traffic issues, and it will only get worse.

I think this is what the longstanding members were worried about when the site became well known in the weather channel broadcast and web presence.

I can never remember a time before it was bought where I had trouble getting to the site like today.
Ignore the NAM 12z. It's clearly playing catch up with the other models.
I hope everyone gets the snow they want, but...I keep seeing these models busting past 4' and above and I dont believe it. Even SS93 was only able to dump 4' in the mountains of WV on the windward side via onshore flow. I think the most widespread coverage is going to muster 24-30 with isolated above that but nowhere greater then 3'. Already a bust in NC and warm air moving north and inland tonight and tmrw. Snow_Love.....
This site has cashed on me several times today.Really really bad timing with all the crazy weather being forecast/on going
I hope everyone gets the snow they want, but...I keep seeing these models busting past 4' and above and I dont believe it. Even SS93 was only able to dump 4' in the mountains of WV on the windward side via onshore flow. I think the most widespread coverage is going to muster 24-30 with isolated above that but nowhere greater then 3'. Already a bust in NC and warm air moving north and inland tonight and tmrw. Snow_Love.....
There have been reports of Thundersnow in Nashville.
Quoting 550. HurricaneHunterJoe:

54" Snow just SE of D.C.



Link


I think that may be an overestimate, at least for the southern part of that range. Triad expected to get around a foot according to that, there's only two inches on the ground and it's already mostly a mix at the current. The longer it's a mix the less snowfall amounts.
Quoting 512. MahFL:



It's always the same, when a severe wx event is on the web traffic go's sky high, it's one of those things that is very hard to handle IT wise.

Maybe IBM could use this opportunity to improve the site and impress us all with their capabilities. ;-p
Quoting 545. snow2fire:



Violet - what was decision on your charity event? Medium sleet for me. The ground is just warm enough to melt the stuff and refreeze. Put down de-icer... not doing much yet... I hope it sticks to sleet.


Let's see if WU will allow a post to go through....

We had to cancel our event. Just not safe, especially since temps not expected to get above freezing until Sunday.
12z RGEM.
Quoting 478. Articuno:

Gorgeous sunrise. Rosy Hot pink sky. Truly calm before the storm.


Forgot to say thanks.. might not have noticed if i hadn't seen your post.

Hunkering down!!

Have frozen, canned and dry food, water, pet food, six flashlights, charged cellphones, 12v inverter, full gas tanks, snow shovels, all cars out of the street, a quarter cord of dry wood in the basement, backup sump pump and charged battery for that, winter boots (hardly ever worn so had to find), board games, lighters for gas stove, woodstove (teenager asked if we should get salt and I said I don't use it but go ahead and get some if you can find it). Not much I can do about roof failure but i think it would take six feet to risk that.
Garden is under blankets but this amount of snow will crush broccoli, brussels sprouts and collards. Lettuce seedlings and broccoli seedlings should be fine.

Expecting to be snowbound from Midnight Friday to Monday morning. Son can get his FWD truck out Monday AM, my subaru likely by PM and our other cars by tuesday AM. Expect work (Gov't) to open by wednesday.


Quoting 558. MahFL:
Why are MODS posting long tropical cyclone updates when a major winter storm is hitting the Eastern USA ?
You're allowed to put him on ignore; it helps.
574. jeffB
Quoting 564. washingtonian115:

This site has cashed on me several times today.Really really bad timing with all the crazy weather being forecast/on going


Bad timing, perhaps, but not the least bit surprising. Lots of interesting weather, and closed businesses/schools mean lots of people stuck at home with nothing better to do than compulsively check for updates (not that I know anyone who would do that). Wunderground won't be the only site seeing record traffic levels today.
OT: The Guardian:

Bolivia's second-largest lake dries up and may be gone forever, lost to climate change

Link
12z GFS demolishes the area.
Quoting 565. FyrtleMyrtle:

I hope everyone gets the snow they want, but...I keep seeing these models busting past 4' and above and I dont believe it. Even SS93 was only able to dump 4' in the mountains of WV on the windward side via onshore flow. I think the most widespread coverage is going to muster 24-30 with isolated above that but nowhere greater then 3'. Already a bust in NC and warm air moving north and inland tonight and tmrw. Snow_Love.....


I went to bed seeing 8-12 inches of snow for the triad, some models pushing that over the 12", and while it's coming down pretty good it's looking like 4-8" is more reasonable. Some dry slots and warm air is getting into the area, that will change much of the possible snowfall to sleet which while maybe more dangerous, will drive the totals down.
Quoting 576. Climate175:

12z GFS demolishes the area.


About 3 feet of snow.
Quoting 548. ricderr:

new plume of enso models out.....dynam average (yellow) now has it in la nina territory JAS


They are expecting the El nino to crash that fast? I'm not sure it will be that fast.
Quoting 570. violet312s:



Let's see if WU will allow a post to go through....

We had to cancel our event. Just not safe, especially since temps not expected to get above freezing until Sunday.


Sorry to hear that... you did the right thing considering weather. Send me msg with info on your organization... if you don't want to post for all. I think the wund site or local connection is having issues (intermittent connection).

It seems like time to do final activities for no power while there is daylight. It's certainly more complicated with active icing and wind for many hours. Be safe.
And don't forget this monster El Nino storm headed for Soo Cal tomorrow!

Quoting 564. washingtonian115:

This site has cashed on me several times today.Really really bad timing with all the crazy weather being forecast/on going
Growing pains.. I hope the bandwidth issue will be addressed before this Spring. If we where to get a Hurricane heading for the CONUS the site would really get hit with traffic. We may need to have the MOD's be able to delete unnecessary/redundant video comments since those use so much of the bandwidth. Or maybe have in place a video post protocol during high traffic times.... these would be easy to implement -imo
583. MahFL
Quoting 564. washingtonian115:

This site has cashed on me several times today.Really really bad timing with all the crazy weather being forecast/on going


It's not bad timing, it's because of Jonas. WU obviously does not have enough bandwidth or server power.
584. jeffB
Quoting 567. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think that may be an overestimate, at least for the southern part of that range. Triad expected to get around a foot according to that, there's only two inches on the ground and it's already mostly a mix at the current. The longer it's a mix the less snowfall amounts.


That map says it's based on a straight 10:1 snow density. It's been showing totals all through central NC much higher than we expect. I've assumed it's just going by liquid equivalent. If so, we've already got "a few inches" here in southern Durham -- representing a quarter-inch or so of sleet and a slight glaze of freezing rain.
Here are the current sst's of the Eastern Seabord; just noting the temp differentials and the possibility of added snow totals from warm water air being pulled into the low as it gets closer to the coast due to baroclinic interaction issues:


Actually the NFL game is between the Panthers and the Cardinals, not the Seahawks -- they played last weekend.
Again?

LoL
Getting closer to wash!

Quoting 583. MahFL:



It's not bad timing, it's because of Jonas. WU obviously does not have enough bandwidth or server power.



You are aware of the server capacity?

The blogs only use 3-4 % of the wu servers on a Hurricane landfall day,..like Sandy,Ike,Gustav did.

The site tools are what Emg Mgrs and others are using now, as well.

Radar's, maps, and all that good stuff some have never used seems.

I tried to keep people posted on the severe weather in my area, but it became impossible with the site crashing constantly over the past four hours.
Second (main line) of storms is moving into the Tampa area working its way down the west coast. Also some strong to occasionally severe storms in the Orlando area.
Hey Drakoen, I've cue'd up da Jaws Theme Music here in my War Room.

A dedicated Radar, jus for you!




Quoting 556. Neapolitan:

I think the very best way to make an overstressed and bogged-down website run faster is for a lot of people to come on and repeatedly postplain about the website being overstressed and bogged-down. That should really help. A lot. ;-)


Yeah, you’ve got a point. Posting incessantly about any given topic on the internet rarely accomplishes much.
The best tool or gift anyone can buy or give is a NOAA Battery Backed up Weather Alert Radio

They are cheap and can save a life.

The Midland WR-100 is available most places.




$30-35 bucks





It looks to be coming quicker than anticipated.. i live in Anne Arundel county and im still in school for another 45 minutes. Then there's elementary kids and middle schoolers.. i hope everyone gets home in time
Quoting 592. Patrap:

Hey Drakoen, I've cue'd up da Jaws Theme Music here in my War Room.

A dedicated Radar, jus for you!







Hi Patrap, snow should be here within the hour or so.
Patrap - I like the windup ones that you can even use to trickle charge your cell phone with. No batteries required. Although even some of them use batteries too.

Stay safe out there in the path of Jonas.
Our local pizza joint is still open.Bless his heart for that.I'm going to get a pizza for the kids and hubby real quick before the first flakes (because people sure as hell don't know how to drive in snow).Right now I'm looking out the window at what is left of my pitiful snow cover before I head out the door and can't believe the array of green and white will be replaced by feet of snow.
Quoting 558. MahFL:

Why are MODS posting long tropical cyclone updates when a major winter storm is hitting the Eastern USA ?
Because some of us don't live on the east coast and believe in knowing what is going on in the world ....

Currently here is Nassau winds are calm and there is intermittent light rain. Local mets expect stormy conditions to begin after noon.
Quoting 583. MahFL:



It's not bad timing, it's because of Jonas. WU obviously does not have enough bandwidth or server power.
Considering even NHC had bandwidth problems this past October when Joaquin was briefly expected to hit the CONUS, I'm not surprised they don't. Perhaps they can develop some kind of 'floating reserve' to provide a temporary increase in bandwidth for times like this. I'm sure other sites could use something similar.
Quoting 595. Articuno:

It looks to be coming quicker than anticipated.. i live in Anne Arundel county and im still in school for another 45 minutes. Then there's elementary kids and middle schoolers.. i hope everyone gets home in time


They let the preschoolers out in 45 minutes?
Quoting 581. HurricaneHunterJoe:

And don't forget this monster El Nino storm headed for Soo Cal tomorrow!



Thanks for your generosity....
Richmond Viz went from 7 miles to a half mile in 20 minutes as the Sneaux came in fast and furious.

D.C., brace for Blizzard.

Quoting 558. MahFL:

Why are MODS posting long tropical cyclone updates when a major winter storm is hitting the Eastern USA ?
Because some of us don't live on the east coast and believe in knowing what is going on in the world ....

Currently here is Nassau winds are calm and there is intermittent light rain. Local mets expect stormy conditions to begin after noon.
Quoting 583. MahFL:



It's not bad timing, it's because of Jonas. WU obviously does not have enough bandwidth or server power.
Considering even NHC had bandwidth problems this past October when Joaquin was briefly expected to hit the CONUS, I'm not surprised they don't. Perhaps they can develop some kind of 'floating reserve' to provide a temporary increase in bandwidth for times like this. I'm sure other sites could use something similar.
"Storm is one we will remember for years if not generations and will likely take many days to recover from.": CWG
Florida is full of so many snow birds and previous residents from the North who finally gave up on dealing with the brutal winter weather...............This system might squeeze out a few thousand new residents downstream for Florida.
A dangerous and historic snowstorm is closing in on the D.C. area. It is one we will remember for years if not generations and will likely take many days to recover from
Quoting 560. weathermanwannabe:

The current SPC storm report chart is blank for the past 3 hour period (in terms of confirmed tornadoes or wind gusts over 65 knots); this will probably change as the day progresses:
today Filtered Reports Graphic





My parents called me on the phone a bit earlier to say they had some pretty strong wins with a severe thunderstorm warning earlier in Pinellas, but they said it wasn't anything really bad at their location, enough to blow garbage cans around and toss small plant debris from trees, but they didn't see any tree or tree limbs down, or no power outages.

Today's event really is not a big deal, nothing even close to the same league as last weekends destructive and deadly event. Not sure how both of these came out to be "slight risk" events, but that's meteorology for ya. It does what it pleases.
Note if in Chrome that the Local info banner for ones fav cities is NOT loading.

The problem is most likey software issues and not any bandwidth.

Partly Cloudy and Hazy here... Temperature 86°F - Wind SE 8 mph - RH 63%...



Link
Some of the speed issues may be due to increased traffic across the entire internet as users from the NW Bahamas to Maine react to the storm by getting online.
CWG has officially named the Blizzard Snowzilla.
Quoting 602. Patrap:

Richmond Viz went from 7 miles to a half mile in 20 minutes as the Sneaux came in fast and furious.

D.C., brace for Blizzard.




I see it aloft here in College Park MD but there is a lot of dry air in the column and expect another hour or two for it to
work down.

Temps steady at around 27-28 degrees in downtown Raleigh with moderately heavy sleet. So far the warming that could lead to freezing rain has stayed to our south. Most folks have heeded the warnings that have been in the news the last few days and are staying off the roads
Quoting 607. Jedkins01:




My parents called me on the phone a bit earlier to say they had some pretty strong wins with a severe thunderstorm warning earlier in Pinellas, but they said it wasn't anything really bad at their location, enough to blow garbage cans around and toss small plant debris from trees, but they didn't see any tree or tree limbs down, or no power outages.

Today's event really is not a big deal, nothing even close to the same league as last weekends destructive and deadly event. Not sure how both of these came out to be "slight risk" events, but that's meteorology for ya. It does what it pleases.


I only picked up 0.24" at my location. Central Pinellas definitely got the worst of it, and now eastern Hillsborough seems to be getting torrential rain. Oddly, all of the heavy stuff fizzled out as it traveled NE up from Pinellas.
The other side of the world -


Tasmanian bushfires ‘worst crisis in decades’ for world heritage forests

“As we speak there are areas burning inside the world heritage area, on the central plateau, where there are ancient species of native pine, which are very slow-growing and up to 1,000 years old,” Law said. “Some of those are being killed as we speak.”

For many Australian forests, fire was a natural part of the ecology. But that was not the case for all of the areas now being threatened in Tasmania, Law said.

“My concern is for the areas of rainforest and high-altitude vegetation in heavily glaciated [areas] where fire is not and has not been part of the ecology for millions and millions of years.”


Link
This is a weather enthusiast site and while the regulars on here do lament when it goes down-glitches up (including me going through withdrawls), the majority of folks who log on for info, and who do not sign up to comment, are reading Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson's posts and particularly Dr. Masters excellent impact assessments.

The best source for information as noted below to make your personal safety decisions is not the blog or comments but your local weather authorities (NWS office), NOAA radio, and your local news media.

Wishing a big good luck to everyone in the path of this one and hoping for minimal loss of life.
617. MahFL
Jonas has not even bombed out yet over the ocean and is causing a lot of problems.
Quoting 598. washingtonian115:

Our local pizza joint is still open.Bless his heart for that.I'm going to get a pizza for the kids and hubby real quick before the first flakes (because people sure as hell don't know how to drive in snow).Right now I'm looking out the window at what is left of my pitiful snow cover before I head out the door and can't believe the array of green and white will be replaced by feet of snow.


Check back in a bit, see if pizza joint guy has any dough he can't hold over because of the storm. :) Buy it cheap, take it home, make monkey bread and cinnamon rolls for the kids. Pizza dough is amazingly versatile.

(In a pinch you can use it to seal up gaps in the windows if cold air starts blowing in.)
Quoting 612. georgevandenberghe:



I see it aloft here in College Park MD but there is a lot of dry air in the column and expect another hour or two for it to
work down.


It took many hours to reach the ground in NC before dawn today. Actually, we lost our chance to see measurable snow due to the dry column and the rapid warming at mid levels. We still have sleet with a touch of freezing rain and 26 degrees at the noon hour..
Joe Romm -

I’m suggesting the name, Superstorm (Edward) Snowed-In: Because it will turn DC upside down, bring the government to a standstill, and then flee the country.
Quoting 584. jeffB:



That map says it's based on a straight 10:1 snow density. It's been showing totals all through central NC much higher than we expect. I've assumed it's just going by liquid equivalent. If so, we've already got "a few inches" here in southern Durham -- representing a quarter-inch or so of sleet and a slight glaze of freezing rain.


That's true, it doesn't account for the ice but wouldn't the model hint with warm air getting in between the lower levels of the troposphere?
Amazing to see how much warm Gulf flow is getting pulled into the storm this morning:

Quoting 613. sprague:

Temps steady at around 27-28 degrees in downtown Raleigh with moderately heavy sleet. So far the warming that could lead to freezing rain has stayed to our south. Most folks have heeded the warnings that have been in the news the last few days and are staying off the roads
Freezing rain will be predominate p-type as we head into the afternoon. Unfortunately, not everyone is staying off the roads as NC has had 4 fatalities so far today.
I have a gut feeling this storm is going to surprise people when it hits the warm ocean waters off the coast. This storm is going to be epic.
My sister just called me and she is stuck in traffic just north of Richmond with snow accumulating on the roads. She actually works for a school district in Richmond and the superintendent made her come to work today. What a xxxx xxx.
At least schools are closed and most government workers were told to stay home today.


Ice storm ongoing Florence, SC. Surface temp 31F and not warming as forecast. Pouring rain and quickly accumulating ice. No sleet. Pure rain freezing on contact. So far local roads ok. North of I-20, south of I-40; some areas within that belt in the Carolinas are looking at a potentially catastrophic ice event.

Quoting 623. Chapelhill:

Freezing rain will be predominate p-type as we head into the afternoon. Unfortunately, not everyone is staying off the roads as NC has had 4 fatalities so far today.
627. MahFL
And so it begins :

"1130 AM ICE STORM TRAVELERS REST 34.97N 82.44W
01/22/2016 GREENVILLE SC BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES DOWN ON A HOME"
Quoting 613. sprague:

Temps steady at around 27-28 degrees in downtown Raleigh with moderately heavy sleet. So far the warming that could lead to freezing rain has stayed to our south. Most folks have heeded the warnings that have been in the news the last few days and are staying off the roads


The warming is above the ground/lower levels, which is what causes sleet instead of snow.
1.5" so far east of Naples.
1.74" of rain so far and plenty more to come here in Fort Myers.
8.21" for the month of January, which is remarkable because normal January precipitation for the entire month is 1.9".
Quoting 624. mikester:

I have a gut feeling this storm is going to surprise people when it hits the warm ocean waters off the coast. This storm is going to be epic.



If someone is surprised then their head must be buried in the sand. It is getting major attention by the weather forecasters, media and politicians.
Quoting 607. Jedkins01:




My parents called me on the phone a bit earlier to say they had some pretty strong wins with a severe thunderstorm warning earlier in Pinellas, but they said it wasn't anything really bad at their location, enough to blow garbage cans around and toss small plant debris from trees, but they didn't see any tree or tree limbs down, or no power outages.

Today's event really is not a big deal, nothing even close to the same league as last weekends destructive and deadly event. Not sure how both of these came out to be "slight risk" events, but that's meteorology for ya. It does what it pleases.


In Palm Harbor I don't think our winds hit 15mph. Got a little bit or rain. Any measurable rain in January is always good.
Still no snow here, but it just has that feeling that we are surrounded by it. Just got back from my dads (about 3 miles down the road), many snow plows staged, even on side streets.
Quoting 632. Bucsboltsfan:



In Palm Harbor I don't think our winds hit 15mph. Got a little bit or rain. Any measurable rain in January is always good.
here in Largo rain came down real heavy, with some gusty winds until the Line moved eastward..just heavy rain,no real problems..thankful for the rain here.
The latest image from RAMMB showing some temp differentials within the precip:


Quoting 630. Sfloridacat5:

1.74" of rain so far and plenty more to come here in Fort Myers.
8.21" for the month of January, which is remarkable because normal January precipitation for the entire month is 1.9".


Wow, you have just been getting soaked this month. Believe it or not, I only picked up 0.24" from the squall line. All of the heavy precip fizzled out right when it got on top of me. That brings me to 2.92" for the month.
What i meant is the intensity of this storm. I would not be surprised it pushes the snow line further north then predicted. I guess we have to wait and see what this potential monster storm and really do. I seen in the long range another low pressure sweeping into the middle of the country next week any idea where that storm might travel? Up the coast and be interior storm or coastal storm. Just curious.


Fine conditions in Rincon surf.... Jonas energy effect still not here... That swell will be maybe on monday over N PR...



Quoting 620. RobertWC:

Joe Romm -

I’m suggesting the name, Superstorm (Edward) Snowed-In: Because it will turn DC upside down, bring the government to a standstill, and then flee the country.


LOL, Love it!~

The only thing regrettable about this DC snow storm is that it, alas, as all good things, will end. Sigh~
And the highs for today; those low 30's across the Eastern Seaboard translate into the sweet spots for the snow:


Quoting 633. 1Zach1:

Still no snow here, but it just has that feeling that we are surrounded by it. Just got back from my dads (about 3 miles down the road), many snow plows staged, even on side streets.


Are you in VA?
Quoting 609. CaribBoy:

Partly Cloudy and Hazy here... Temperature 86°F - Wind SE 8 mph - RH 63%...



Link


OK. Marry me.
Quoting 642. win1gamegiantsplease:



Are you in VA?

Yes, western Fairfax County
The snow should be here within the hour and it looks like it will be at least moderate. There are still many people out on the road and people getting supplies. Will definitely get interesting around these parts.
NowCast: Light snow has started in W.Fairfax
Quoting 645. Drakoen:

The snow should be here within the hour and it looks like it will be at least moderate. There are still many people out on the road and people getting supplies. Will definitely get interesting around these parts.
The clouds are gradually thickening.
My mom's shepherd loves ball and the snow. Put 'em both together...

Waiting for the snow was like the time I was waiting for high school graduation.I was prepared the whole week but on the day of graduation was still nervous.

blizzard2016 is trending world wide!
Don't be fooled by that dry slot over western VA and NC. Strong 700mb frontogenesis is present over that region and that were the heavy bands will form and move towards the northeast.
Quoting 650. Climate175:




SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF ERN
WV...NRN VA...AND MD HAS REMAINED MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
REPORTED A QUICK TRANSITION FROM NO PRECIPITATION TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL...INCLUDING EKN IN ERN WV AND SHD...CHO...AND OMH IN NWRN
VA. GIVEN PRECIPITATION FREE REGION TO THE SW OF THE MD AREA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEWD...THIS TYPE OF QUICK TRANSITION FROM NO
PRECIPITATION TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MD AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH PER
HOUR ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AREAS WITH RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
CONSTANT...AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING...LIFT WILL FAVOR THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
Quoting 625. Sfloridacat5:

My sister just called me and she is stuck in traffic just north of Richmond with snow accumulating on the roads. She actually works for a school district in Richmond and the superintendent made her come to work today. What a xxxx xxx.
At least schools are closed and most government workers were told to stay home today.
I guess all that free time she would have had this morning would have been too much for such slackers as she and her colleagues must be ....

OTOH, I am betting a few local officials are wondering if they should have said "School until 1 p.m." .... nothing much happening here for the nonce ....



Grand Bahama and SW FL seem to be getting most of the wx for now with this southern edition of Today's Weather. ... still watching to see how things pan out for the rest of the NW Bahamas this afternoon and overnight.

BBL
Quoting 622. weathermanwannabe:

Amazing to see how much warm Gulf flow is getting pulled into the storm this morning:



Bwah, look at all that dry air.
Light snow in southern MD as of 1230. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Big fat wet flakes.

National
Dulles
BWI
Avg. High
42
41
41

Avg. Low
27
21
23

Storm timeline for immediate metro area

11 a.m to 4 p.m. Friday: Snow moves in from southwest to northeast. Temps: 30-35. 1-2 inches accumulation.

4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Friday: Moderate snow. Temps: 25-30. Storm total accumulation: 3 to 6 inches.

10 p.m. Friday to 7 a.m. Saturday: Snow, heavy at times. Increasing winds. Temps: 25-30. Storm total accumulation: 10 to 14 inches.

7 a.m. to 5 p.m. Saturday: Snow heavy at times. Possible blizzard conditions. Brief lull, dry slot possible I-95 east. Temps: 25-30. Storm total accumulation: 14-24 inches.

5 p.m. Saturday to midnight Sunday: Snow and blowing snow, gradually decreasing. Temps: 23-28. Storm total accumulation: 16-30 inches


Link
Do my eyes deceive me? Is that a snow flake?
It looks like the WU service interruptions this morning are on their way to being resolved. We are returning to normal services and will keep monitoring.

I'll have a new blog post this afternoon. In the meantime, we'll post occasional updates to our live blog on Winter Storm Jonas.

Keep those reports and WunderPhotos coming!
Snowing now and it is coming down.
The first flakes have started in downtown silver spring.
washi- please give someone a way to contact you, someone you trust? someone you could text, just so we know all is ok, if you lose power, etc.

Actually that goes for all ya'll who might be affected.
This might be a rather stupid question, but why does the radar show snow when it's not snowing sometimes?
Still got a lot to learn lol
ECMWF 12z says the heavy snow axis will set up across NOVA, DC, central MD:

Quoting 662. Articuno:

This might be a rather stupid question, but why does the radar show snow when it's not snowing sometimes?
Still got a lot to learn lol


Dry air. The moisture is evaporating before it reaches the surface.
665. MahFL
Quoting 662. Articuno:

This might be a rather stupid question, but why does the radar show snow when it's not snowing sometimes?
Still got a lot to learn lol


Because the atmosphere absorbs the snow before it reaches the ground, when the atmosphere becomes saturated the snow reaches the ground.
Quoting 665. MahFL:



Because the atmosphere absorbs the snow before it reaches the ground, when the atmosphere becomes saturated the snow reaches the ground.
Quoting 664. Drakoen:



Dry air. The moisture is evaporating before it reaches the surface.


Ah I see. Thanks! Very neat too
22 days ago -

Washington, D.C., eclipses warmest December on record by an enormous margin

December 2015 in Washington was the epitome of weird weather. It will be remembered not for its steadily decreasing temperatures and occasional flurry, but for its humid, foggy days with high temperatures in the 70s, and lows that could masquerade as normal highs.

Some cherry trees, irises, roses and daffodils bloomed straight through the month, painting a surreal portrait next to evergreen trees and red bows. Instead of curling up in front of a fireplace, many in Washington turned to air conditioning rather than heat on Christmas.


Link
Quoting 661. aquak9:

washi- please give someone a way to contact you, someone you trust? someone you could text, just so we know all is ok, if you lose power, etc.

Actually that goes for all ya'll who might be affected.
Agreed... We get worried.
Quoting 666. Articuno:



Ah I see. Thanks! Very neat too


Called Virga
Link
WFO Imagery, Rainbow




Quoting 661. aquak9:

washi- please give someone a way to contact you, someone you trust? someone you could text, just so we know all is ok, if you lose power, etc.

Actually that goes for all ya'll who might be affected.
Thanks Aqua.Dakster has my e-mail address if need be.
Stay safe Washi... You have seemed to be level headed so I am sure you will be fine regardless. Let me know if you need me to mobilize the troops to get to you. I am sure between all of us here we could make something happen if you needed it.
Watching ABC live stream from DC. Good luck!
http://streema.com/tv/play/ABC_7_3

On our side of the ocean: Rain front has just crossed the border of Germany which is mostly still in (deep) freeze (as my place near Frankfurt). Dangerous hours ahead with ice rain and black ice, the more as many folks in my region should be out this evening to celebrate some carnival thing. Could be bad when they want to leave later this evening and find the roads iced all over. Hope most got the warnings of the weather services!

I hope everyone stays safe down in the DC area and really the whole mid-Atlantic for the next couple days. One for the books for you guys. Enjoy it! Hitting on a weekend too, so that'll minimize the disruption somewhat. I'm stuck right on the northern fringe- supposed to leave for school Sunday morning, my house is just over the MA/RI border. Most of the global models show just 2-4" for this area, but for whatever reason most of NCEP's short range guidance (NAM and the WRF models) are insistent on much more. I'd definitely go with the global suite.

This storm needs a name and, apologies to TWC, but Jonas simply does not cut it.

I nominate : Jonas the January "Juggernaut" storm of 2016.

Edward "Snowed-in" is clever but I dont see that catching on.

Best winter storm name ever: the Knickerbocker storm. Now I have to go see why it got that name.

Nothing yet here in Salisbury MD.
678. redux
Quoting 672. Patrap:

Baltimore/Washington WFO - Funktop Color Infrared Loop

Boxes are active


can you laymanize what I am looking at?
Gale Warning until 6 am CST Saturday for gmz530-534-550-552-570- 
572.
Looks like our highs will be in the mid to upper 20s. Definitely see better than 10:1 ratios.
Quoting 678. redux:


can you laymanize what I am looking at?
It is, are, am, going to be, will be, continues to, will continue to, has been, shall be - -

snowing.
Quoting 581. HurricaneHunterJoe:

And don't forget this monster El Nino storm headed for Soo Cal tomorrow!




Those showers are just enough to keep the hills from drying the new grass so we'll take it. Forecast is for something more substantial next week for SoCal. Meanwhile, Northern CAL snow pack picks up two feet of snow from this storm.
Quoting 677. CaptainNefarious:

This storm needs a name and, apologies to TWC, but Jonas simply does not cut it.

I nominate : Jonas the January "Juggernaut" storm of 2016.

Edward "Snowed-in" is clever but I dont see that catching on.

Best winter storm name ever: the Knickerbocker storm. Now I have to go see why it got that name.

Nothing yet here in Salisbury MD.


You are not happy with a storm named after a boy band?
Quoting 681. Drakoen:

Looks like our highs will be in the mid to upper 20s. Definitely see better than 10:1 ratios.


It's been in the mid-20's in the triad, highs won't break 30 until tomorrow, and 10:1 has not been the case. Snow totals have really backed off since last night. Probably won't see more than half a foot. Of course by the time it's saying what's up to DC/Baltimore it will be more intense.
The Snow has begun to fall. Let the jamming begin!
Thick clouds and flurries in SC PA
Friends in Middle TN (West of Nashville) just shared this on their FB...

How ironic..The shining just started and for the most part takes place during a server blizzard.lol of course we don't live in a haunted hotel but still ironic.
Quoting 681. Drakoen:

Looks like our highs will be in the mid to upper 20s. Definitely see better than 10:1 ratios.


Still 28 even down here, you guys should get good ratios.
693. redux
Quoting 682. aquak9:

It is, are, am, going to be, will be, continues to, will continue to, has been, shall be - -

snowing.


well i was looking for an explanation that wasn't geared to a 7 year old. thanks though i guess.
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...ITS BECOMING PRETTY
APPARENT THAT MOST OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTENDING WITH A MORE ICY
SCENARIO OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WAS A BIT UNDERESTIMATED BY
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICING IS EXPECTED
WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE HOURLY LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS AOA 0.05 IN/HR FOR
A MULTI-HOUR DURATION WOULD EASILY YIELD 0.25-0.50" WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE ICE AMOUNTS INTO THE 0.10-0.25"
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL...WITH RAP/HRRR SFC WET BULBS
INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ONE AREA THAT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME CONSIDERABLE SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHICH INCLUDES THE TRIAD AND
ROXBORO(PERSON COUNTY)...WHERE A NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER ATOP
A 7-8 DEGREE C COLD NOSE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW/SLEET MIX.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
Quoting 688. Climate175:

The Snow has begun to fall. Let the jamming begin!


Link
Looking at traffic cams around the DMV area, still a ton of cars on the roads.
Quoting 681. Drakoen:

Looks like our highs will be in the mid to upper 20s. Definitely see better than 10:1 ratios.


Where's STS? He hyped that everything was moving south and he wouldn't be surprised if it missed you in DC. LOL, NYC and Long Island are under blizzard warnings.

Post photos of this epic weather event.
Quoting 690. JNFlori30A:

Friends in Middle TN (West of Nashville) just shared this on their FB...


Lol .... somewhere in DC Drak and Washi are doing pretty much the same thing .... lol ...
23 degrees here in southcentral PA...radar has shown coverage for quite some time now but unbelievably dry air. Not sure how long it's going to take to get see some flakes. Quite breezy too.
Bands of heavy snow is on the heels of DC.
Asbury Park NJ area here. Overcast and in the mid-to-upper 20s. Ocean looks a little choppy. We're as concerned about the coastal flooding and high seas as we are the snow for Jonas. Yesterday, we were still included in the 'ocean strip' forecast for NJ where snow totals would be between 5-10 inches, but winds would be 45-55 kts on the coast. Now we're hearing 55-65 kt winds with 70-80 kt gusts and 12-18 inches of snow. I follow a lot of the tropical stuff on WU, but this is the first time Ive seriously tracked a winter event.

My question is: how reliable is the forecast now that it's 12-24 hours out, and what's the worst that could happen? Some people have said that this will be our worst coastal flooding event since Sandy and some of the water issues may be almost as significant. I have a huge pantry, a non-electric source of heat, a full liquor cabinet, and I live on a top of a hill about half a mile inland - should I consider evacuating to the Poconos? I have some family up there.
Also, just heard that it has started snowing in Cape May, NJ - no pictures at this point.
Quoting 691. washingtonian115:

How ironic..The shining just started and for the most part takes place during a server blizzard.lol of course we don't live in a haunted hotel but still ironic.


At least that hotel was stocked up for the winter. Hope you are at least for 1 week.
What a beautiful system

Visible Sat
HRRR snowfall accumulation map is impressive. Would love to hear the more knowledgeable opinions on this model.
What did Euro snow totals look like?
Quoting 623. Chapelhill:

Freezing rain will be predominate p-type as we head into the afternoon. Unfortunately, not everyone is staying off the roads as NC has had 4 fatalities so far today.


Whatever holes there were in the sleet/freezing rain shield approachin the Triangle are filling in. Now some yellows appearing on RDU doppler. I'm still seeing medium and medium-heavy sleet mixed with freezing rain and the evergreens are starting to pick up ice. And there are hours of this yet to go.
Flurries starting here in Pasadena/Green Haven, MD
Quoting 705. PSUwxCE23:

HRRR snowfall accumulation map is impressive. Would love to hear the more knowledgeable opinions on this model.
Most of the models were showing impressive totals with this system, some as many as 5 days in advance.
Quoting 709. BahaHurican:

Most of the models were showing impressive totals with this system, some as many as 5 days in advance.

Agreed.
Quoting 709. BahaHurican:

Most of the models were showing impressive totals with this system, some as many as 5 days in advance.
Baha, really ready for this storm! Everything is ready to go now.


January 18, 2016: MODIS Aqua true color image showing Mississippi River sediment plume in Lake Pontchartrain due to the Bonnet Carre Spillway Opening
Quoting 706. Tornado6042008X:

What did Euro snow totals look like?
20-28 inches.

Some frames from very fresh "Euro" 12z. Source wetteronline.de.
Quoting 711. Climate175:

Baha, really ready for this storm! Everything is ready to go now.
Excellent!!! You should have some accumulated snow by now .... what's the wind like?
Quoting 715. Patrap:


Thanks Pat .... just when I start to think we might get lucky down here, you show me the BIG PICTURE .....

Quoting 718. BahaHurican:

Excellent!!! You should have some accumulated snow by now .... what's the wind like?
Well the snow is just really starting to begin, and is very light at the moment. That will change in the next 2-3 hours, and the wind part of the storm has not started yet.
Quoting 719. BahaHurican:

Thanks Pat .... just when I start to think we might get lucky down here, you show me the BIG PICTURE .....




You might get lucky, but it isn't going to be avoiding this storm...
Quoting 713. Climate175:

20-28 inches.
Is that assuming 10:1 ratio or not?
Quoting 722. Tornado6042008X:

Is that assuming 10:1 ratio or not?
That is assuming the 10:1 ratio, so I would say 25-30 inches.
Roads have yet to give in here.
Every few minutes, TWC has been reporting live from D.C. for anyone that wants to see live weather conditions in Washington D.C.
View from the Capitol looking west on Duke of Gloucester Street in Colonial Williamsburg’s Historic Area.

Link
This storm might be strong enough that it forms an eye when cranking off the coast.
The HRRR model looks very interesting for early tomorrow morning.
Front passed through CME around 5 AM today. Brief heavy rain but things have cleared off nicely for now. Steady breeze at about 15 mph out of the north, w/occasional gusts over 30. Seas offshore up to 4 m, so I don't expect the port to open any time soon. Don't think we'll get much over 80 F today and tomorrow is supposed to be even cooler.
Quoting 725. Sfloridacat5:

Every few minutes, TWC has been reporting live from D.C. for anyone that wants to see the weather conditions.


tfw you have verizon so no TWC
Satellite "Terra" just caught the storm. First pic of the coast, second inland.



Quoting 701. lexslamman:

Asbury Park NJ area here. Overcast and in the mid-to-upper 20s. Ocean looks a little choppy. We're as concerned about the coastal flooding and high seas as we are the snow for Jonas. Yesterday, we were still included in the 'ocean strip' forecast for NJ where snow totals would be between 5-10 inches, but winds would be 45-55 kts on the coast. Now we're hearing 55-65 kt winds with 70-80 kt gusts and 12-18 inches of snow. I follow a lot of the tropical stuff on WU, but this is the first time Ive seriously tracked a winter event.

My question is: how reliable is the forecast now that it's 12-24 hours out, and what's the worst that could happen? Some people have said that this will be our worst coastal flooding event since Sandy and some of the water issues may be almost as significant. I have a huge pantry, a non-electric source of heat, a full liquor cabinet, and I live on a top of a hill about half a mile inland - should I consider evacuating to the Poconos? I have some family up there.


How high above sea level? You're probably fine if you're more than 25' up. On the other hand, where I grew up around Atlantic City, a half-mile inland meant Pleasantville, which "up on a hill" meant not terribly high up, and a determined beaver could ruin your day - and crawlspace.
Mount Holly NWS will update their forecast map around 4:00-4:30 today. They are hinting that they will increase snow totals and move heavier snow lines north. In Asbury Park, the big question will be whether warm air will intrude into the snow tomorrow. Right now it looks like the snow will be falling to hard to allow that to happen, so a foot of snow is not out of the question. As far as flooding concerns, it looks like LBI and south will get the heavier flood possibilities but moderate flooding is possible in Asbury.

Quoting 701. lexslamman:

Asbury Park NJ area here. Overcast and in the mid-to-upper 20s. Ocean looks a little choppy. We're as concerned about the coastal flooding and high seas as we are the snow for Jonas. Yesterday, we were still included in the 'ocean strip' forecast for NJ where snow totals would be between 5-10 inches, but winds would be 45-55 kts on the coast. Now we're hearing 55-65 kt winds with 70-80 kt gusts and 12-18 inches of snow. I follow a lot of the tropical stuff on WU, but this is the first time Ive seriously tracked a winter event.

My question is: how reliable is the forecast now that it's 12-24 hours out, and what's the worst that could happen? Some people have said that this will be our worst coastal flooding event since Sandy and some of the water issues may be almost as significant. I have a huge pantry, a non-electric source of heat, a full liquor cabinet, and I live on a top of a hill about half a mile inland - should I consider evacuating to the Poconos? I have some family up there.
Snow is starting to overpower the pre-treatment out here. Roads still seem pretty good closer to town. Still a large number of cars on the road.
Roads are starting to give. Looks like high ratio snowfall to me.
Quoting 735. Drakoen:

Roads are starting to give. Looks like high ratio snowfall to me.
Only 24F at KIAD. Roughly 15:1.
737. redux
still none of the white stuff in downtown baltimore, despite radar saying so, and the clouds looking they are ready to burst full of snow..
The pavement and roofs that had snow that melted before, are being covered back instantly.
Quoting 715. Patrap:




Too bad that dry air pushed so far north
Still quite a few cars on the roads. Dendrites coming down. Roads are covered.
The Blizzard Warning goes into effect in about 20 mins.
Buoy off the coast of VB

Wind's started slow but steady out of the NNE here on the Jersey Shore, something's winding up over the water.
Quoting 732. nonblanche:



How high above sea level? You're probably fine if you're more than 25' up. On the other hand, where I grew up around Atlantic City, a half-mile inland meant Pleasantville, which "up on a hill" meant not terribly high up, and a determined beaver could ruin your day - and crawlspace.


I'm right around 45', but the whole area around me (Neptune, Neptune City, Belmar, Bradley Beach and Ocean Grove) are infamous for flooding. I'll be dry but trapped if the storm tides are high enough.
745. MahFL
I am in the dry slot of Jonas here in Orange Park, FL :

Snow now coming down at a good easy clip.
May be a blessing for the areas getting pummeled with ice.

Quoting 739. win1gamegiantsplease:



Too bad that dry air pushed so far north
Seeing people leaving their place of residence on to the street where cars are crawling. Parking lots are covered.
Speaking of dry slot, sun just popped out in Florence, SC and then quickly disappeared. Wind is really picking up. I'm guessing our Low is going to start forming offshore to my south and east. Wind switching more easterly and gusting.

Quoting 747. HaoleboySurfEC:

May be a blessing for the areas getting pummeled with ice.


Just hit the 1" mark. Snow is steady, but not what I would call heavy.
Live web cam feed from Speaker Paul Ryan's balcony in Washington.

Link
Quoting 747. HaoleboySurfEC:

May be a blessing for the areas getting pummeled with ice.




Yep - thank goodness the dry slot is just west of Durham. If the ice kept up the way it was going, there would be a lot of problems around Triangle. We're not off the hook yet, but the situation is certainly less ... concerning.
Some heavier returns south of Warrenton, VA. Should see rates pick up in an hour or two with whiteout conditions as the band moves towards the ENE.
Starting to snow pretty good here. It's odd, hasn't really accumulated on the grass but the roads are starting to get some snow cover
I have steady snow here in Shippensburg, PA
It's 24 degrees here and the high is suppose to be 28 according to WU.
Quoting 756. Drakoen:

It's 24 degrees here and the high is suppose to be 28 according to WU.
We should be at a foot in no time with the current conditions.
Giants flakes mixing in with the finer stuff we have had since the start.
Good to hear. Wonder how it will go for the areas in NC east of I-95. Ice is the worst winter weather IMO.

Quoting 752. snow2fire:



Yep - thank goodness the dry slot is just west of Durham. If the ice kept up the way it was going, there would be a lot of problems around Triangle. We're not off the hook yet, but the situation is certainly less ... concerning.
761. redux
first snowflakes appeared downtown baltimore around 3 pm. very light snow/flurries thus far.

edit: picked up considerably as soon as i posted.
763. redux
Quoting 748. Drakoen:

Seeing people leaving their place of residence on to the street where cars are crawling. Parking lots are covered.


where are you where this is happening?
Matt C Ritter ‏@MetMattRitter 4m4 minutes ago
Wow, big pressure falls off the coast of the Carolinas. Basically, this just means that everything is right on schedule for the bad stuff
Still waiting for the first flakes in NOLA.....
Quoting 763. redux:



where are you where this is happening?


Silver Spring
Breaking, Neil Young to play NOLA JazzFest. Red Hot Chili Peppa's too.

Dat iz all.

: P

Quoting 691. washingtonian115:

How ironic..The shining just started and for the most part takes place during a server blizzard.lol of course we don't live in a haunted hotel but still ironic.
Coincidence, not irony. Still very creepy though!
Quoting 760. HaoleboySurfEC:

Good to hear. Wonder how it will go for the areas in NC east of I-95. Ice is the worst winter weather IMO.




I agree on ice. I'm looking at WRAL doppler - doesn't show rain vs snow or ice. The dry area is still west of Raleigh. Looks like full coverage to east. See i-control radar for ice vs rain.

Still moderate sleeting west of Raleigh, the sooner it stops the better.
Waiting for the heavy band approaching SE DC to come up north before going out and measuring.
8.39" for the month here in Fort Myers
1.9" of rain today is a record rainfall for today.
Normal precipitation for the entire month is 1.9"

So we are kicking butt in the rain department down here in S.W. Florida.

Had some freezing rain here this morning. Now just dealing with rain, rain, and more rain.

Looking forward to my trace of snow tomorrow...
Quoting 771. Sfloridacat5:

8.39" for the month here in Fort Myers
1.9" of rain today is a record rainfall for today.
Normal precipitation for the entire month is 1.9"

So we are kicking butt in the rain department down here in S.W. Florida.




Any water spouts, funnels, tornado's?
Quoting 769. snow2fire:



I agree on ice. I'm looking at WRAL dual doppler radar - doesn't show rain vs snow or ice. The dry area is still west of Raleigh. Looks like full coverage to east. See i-control radar for ice vs rain.

Still moderate sleeting west of Raleigh, the sooner it stops the better.
My update from Mauldin, SC so far is that we've had about a quarter inch of snow and maybe a quarter inch of sleet/ice on the ground. Its windy here about 30mph gusts with a temperature of 28.

Eric
Long Island, New York - air is calm, skies are overcast. Knowing what's coming, it's a tad eerie. Wish I had a personal barometer to measure what's about to happen. Woulda been cool.
Big dendrites falling. The heavy band is moving over the DC metro area.
Quoting 770. Drakoen:

Waiting for the heavy band approaching SE DC to come up north before going out and measuring.


Drak... are you near the military barracks?
Quoting 772. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Had some freezing rain here this morning. Now just dealing with rain, rain, and more rain.

Looking forward to my trace of snow tomorrow...


my trace should be fun too.
Quoting 778. LongIslandBeaches:



Drak... are you near the military barracks?


Post 766
When is The Weather Channel going to start giving names to Cold Fronts? Ridiculous!
Blizzards: the sole severe weather even that I, having lived in Florida for so many years, have no ability to relate to. :(
To the NW of all this interesting winter weather in S C IL, we had partly sunny skies, yet 100% RH, although over last hour or two has become overcast, but still relatively bright outside. 25, 30.13", w/ 10mph N winds, gusting to 25. Stay safe out East! One of these year's Pat! Did you hear Santana IV coming out in April?
Should note that this event is starting colder than Snowmageddon did when it started.
Update from Hampton, VA @4PM: 29 degrees and snow. Almost 3" have fallen since it began in earnest around noon. The winds here at the coast are now gusting close to 30 mph from the N.E. so the storm is ramping up.
This is going to be an interesting night of snow and ice watching.
Quoting 784. Climate175:

Should note that this event is starting colder than Snowmageddon did when it started.


Considering it is supposed to be worse than snowmageddon, I guess that makes sense.
Not even going to try and read back now. I see all my favorites have vanished. Anyone else with this or is it just me?

Strange day so far in Alabama. After the squall line pushed through, the temperature start to rise like a rocket. Peaked at 68 just before 1100 and since then it has sunk like a stone. Down to 46 now with 15 mph winds gusting to 28. Wind chill is a nippy 39. The barometer is still at 29.60 after bottoming at 29.57. I had 1.49" of rain from the squall line and 2.24" in the last 24 hours. We had some trees down earlier from the thunderstorms but nothing any worse that I know of.

There are now two lows on the map, one over west central GA and one at the NW GA border. Circulation behind the lows is starting to fill in across north and central AL. Snow is now being reported in Birmingham and as far south a Calera, about 50 miles south of Birmingham. You can really see the snow showers start to pick up as the relatively warmer air associated with the lows hits the CAA headed south. I suspect some parts of central AL are going to see more snow out of this than originally forecast. It looks like I have about the warmest temperature in the state, with areas west and north of me being anywhere from 32 to 37 degrees. I still think I won't see anything other than a flurry later tonight if I'm lucky, but the low is not moving at anywhere near the speed originally predicted. Now with two lows and some dry air working in behind the lows, I really don't know what the next 12 hours has in store. Continuing interesting weather for sure.
Which models seem to be lining up the best so far?
Quoting 787. Dakster:



Considering it is supposed to be worse than snowmageddon, I guess that makes sense.
Yea, still steady snow right now with a band approaching soon.
Quoting 771. Sfloridacat5:

8.39" for the month here in Fort Myers
1.9" of rain today is a record rainfall for today.
Normal precipitation for the entire month is 1.9"

So we are kicking butt in the rain department down here in S.W. Florida.




Picked up .41 here in Longwood with now 4.34" for January nearly double for what is average for January. Also another major rain maker is coming to FL next Wednesday & Thursday and infact there could be flooding with this next batch as it is expected last a few days.

Quoting #788. sar2401
9:11 PM GMT on January 22, 2016

I see all my favorites have vanished.

Yes, mine seem to be missing as well.....
1.25 in. here. Elevator to the apartment building malfunctioned on my way back up.
Quoting 782. CybrTeddy:

Blizzards: the sole severe weather even that I, having lived in Florida for so many years, have no ability to relate to. :(


We had a true blizzard (total white out, zero visibility at times, 50 mph winds, 6ft snow drifts ) in western Oklahoma when I was in my teens and we loved it. My friends and I spent most of the day outside playing in below 0 windchill temps. I wasn't even cold, because I was wearing a one piece snow-mobile suit.
The only bad thing was it was so cold that the snow was very dry, so you couldn't make snowballs. The snow was like a fine powder just blowing around everywhere.
Quoting 791. StormTrackerScott:



Picked up .41 here in Longwood with now 4.34" for January nearly double for what is average for January. Also another major rain maker is coming to FL next Wednesday & Thursday and infact there could be flooding with this next batch as it is expected last a few days.




From Miami NWS...

THE GFS HAS A LOW TRACKING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTH EASTERN UNITED STATES AND STALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IT ALSO HAS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHICH
NEVER REALLY DEEPENS, BUT LOOKS TO BRING MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
TO THE NORTH, MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY MORNING. IT THEN HAS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE ECMWF HAS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO OCCURRING. IT IS SIMILAR WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT EVEN HAS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT TAKES THE GULF LOW AND
DEEPENS IT QUICKLY AND MOVES IT INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA.
IT BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS. IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS
WOULD BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WOULD LIKELY
CREATE A SITUATION LIKE TODAY, WHERE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HELP TO
KEEP THE AREA MORE STABLE, REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION.

THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BRING A HIGH COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MAYBE EVEN SOME STRONG ONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO
LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO,DYNAMICS ARE STILL NOT OPTIMAL FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR STRONG CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE AS IT IS
LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, RAIN LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
I love the interesting storms like this one. Snow in pa but nothing in upstate ny. Snow line is only couple 100 miles south and east of where i am. Funny to see that the snow bands hit a wall right about middle of pa. Interesting to say the least. I see alot of dry air moving in is that going to factor how big and strong this storm comes?
22F at KIAD.
Quoting 776. LongIslandBeaches:

Long Island, New York - air is calm, skies are overcast. Knowing what's coming, it's a tad eerie. Wish I had a personal barometer to measure what's about to happen. Woulda been cool.
Check to see if your phone has a barometric pressure sensor. I know the iPhone does as do most Samsung Android devices. If it does, you can download a free barometer from one the various app stores.
Quoting 792. PedleyCA:

Quoting #788. sar2401
9:11 PM GMT on January 22, 2016

I see all my favorites have vanished.

Yes, mine seem to be missing as well.....
Well, I'm at least glad to hear it's not just me missing my favorites. I guess WU had some "issues" earlier today. Maybe it's related to that and they'll get around to fixing it some day...
Temp has dropped to 23 here.
It is so nice to just listen to music while watching the snow fall.
Quoting 791. StormTrackerScott:



Picked up .41 here in Longwood with now 4.34" for January nearly double for what is average for January. Also another major rain maker is coming to FL next Wednesday & Thursday and infact there could be flooding with this next batch as it is expected last a few days.




If this keeps up, we could easily end up with over 10" for January (one of our driest months of the year) which is pretty remarkable. I haven't seen this in the 20 years I've lived here.
Quoting 801. Climate175:

It is so nice to just listen to music while watching the snow fall.


AS long as you don't have to go out in it, it's nice!
Quoting 798. sar2401:

Check to see if your phone has a barometric pressure sensor. I know the iPhone does as do most Samsung Android devices. If it does, you can download a free barometer from one the various app stores.


Wow! Didn't even know that was possible! On it..
It's very calm in the streets of Seaside Heights, New Jersey. Everyone is anxious because this is hyped as the 'biggest flooding since Sandy', and we've yet to get our protective sea wall and/or dunes. They are expecting 3 high tide cycles, with some approaching Major Coastal Flooding. There is a voluntary evacuation in the Borough. I'm working on a flood study during the storm. Our streets flood on this island in circumstances such as this, but everyone is thinking Sandy, which it is hard to forget, as it flooded all our streets with feet of water in 2012, and damaged every single house in our community. This has to be far less than that. That was called Record Tidal Flooding during Sandy. Hope the best for us!
Quoting 796. mikester:

I love the interesting storms like this one. Snow in pa but nothing in upstate ny. Snow line is only couple 100 miles south and east of where i am. Funny to see that the snow bands hit a wall right about middle of pa. Interesting to say the least. I see alot of dry air moving in is that going to factor how big and strong this storm comes?

Yes, at least in the short term. You can really see the dry air in brown being drawn up through Georgia and the Carolinas and scouring out the moist air as it does so. The now twin lows continue to move slowly east. As long as that movement continues, the counterclockwise flow around the low will move more offshore and dry air will become less of an issue. If the lows move more northerly and stay over land, the dry air will still get pulled up closer to the main circulation of the lows. This is the typical kind of mesoscale behavior of systems models are not good at predicting.

Quoting 803. Dakster:



AS long as you don't have to go out in it, it's nice!
Yep! Until it's time to go outside and enjoy it.
24 degrees here in Lancaster, PA. Airport 40 minutes ago recorded a dewpoint of 7, so it's really dry over here. Radar returns have detected snow in the air for two hours now, but none of it is able to reach the ground.

:(
I wish it were the Seahawks playing the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Jan 24, but alas, the Panthers knocked the Seahawks out of the playoffs last Sunday, Jan 17. The Panthers are playing the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday.
I feel sorry for the people out at the beach. They are missing out on all the snow.

I just check Ocean City, Maryland's forecast and they are only expecting rain and snow combined with little accumulation (maybe an 1" or so).
Lots of wind though.
Quoting 801. Climate175:

It is so nice to just listen to music while watching the snow fall.
Cool Jazz playlist with neat img as cover
So is the storm starting to turn northerly track now? Seems to me in the last few frames it seems to be moving north. Wounder if they planned for it or is it going to make swing north pushing snow further north that they didn't figure it would do. Still very interesting storm system.
Quoting 804. LongIslandBeaches:



Wow! Didn't even know that was possible! On it..
Great idea downloading a barometer. Seaside Heights pressure 1017.98 mb
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
HURRICANE WARNING
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CORENTIN (03-20152016)
22:00 PM RET January 22 2016
==================================
East of Rodrigues Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Corentin (970 hPa) located at 20.8S 71.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
125 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
190 NM radius from the center, extending up to 290 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 330 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 340 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 22.9S 71.6E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 25.0S 72.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 28.0S 76.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 27.6S 77.6E - 50 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
================
Over the last 6 hours, the cloud pattern has slightly improved with a little better, although still ragged, eye pattern. The intensity is based on the Dvorak technique with available estimates around 1800z range from 57-68 kt. partial ASCAT-B data of 1733z suggest that storm winds are only located within the eastern semi-circle.

Overnight and tomorrow morning, environmental conditions will remain conducive so that Corentin may strengthen a little more . It should be steered by the mid-level ridge in its east, and track progressively south, then bend south southeastward on Saturday.

Later Saturday, ahead of an upper trough, the northwesterly vertical wind shear should increase. Sunday, south of 27.0S, the ocean heat content will become marginal. The low is forecast to weaken and begin an extratropical transition from Sunday evening. The weakened system may move temporarily westward over the northern side of the subtropical anticyclone building in its south.

This forecast is based on the available numerical weather prediction models, in rather good agreement.
Quoting 802. Sfloridacat5:



If this keeps up, we could easily end up with over 10" for January (one of our driest months of the year) which is pretty remarkable. I haven't seen this in the 20 years I've lived here.
Remember my 20+ inches last month? I guess some of it is moving down to you now. I'm getting to the point nothing will surprise me now. Well, I guess snow in July would still surprise me. :-) Down to 44 now.
Quoting 802. Sfloridacat5:



If this keeps up, we could easily end up with over 10" for January (one of our driest months of the year) which is pretty remarkable. I haven't seen this in the 20 years I've lived here.
I don't know about FL as a whole, but we've had the wettest winter I can remember [so far, anyway]. Every front has brought several hours to several days of rain with it ...

The new El Nino impacts? Changing our climate to a rainier winter period?
Quoting 813. popartpete:

Great idea downloading a barometer. Seaside Heights pressure 1017.98 mb
I have one on my phone and it's usually within a couple of tenths of what my several and much higher priced than free barometers read. One of the big advantages is the ability to generate a tendency chart, which is much more important the reading at at any one point in time. Until about an hour ago, mine looked like a ski slope on the downhill side. :-)
Quoting 816. BahaHurican:

I don't know about FL as a whole, but we've had the wettest winter I can remember [so far, anyway]. Every front has brought several hours to several days of rain with it ...

The new El Nino impacts? Changing our climate to a rainier winter period?


There certainly hasn't been the typical South Florida dry season...
Quoting 815. sar2401:

Remember my 20+ inches last month? I guess some of it is moving down to you now. I'm getting to the point nothing will surprise me now. Well, I guess snow in July would still surprise me. :-) Down to 44 now.


Yeah, we're going to end up getting at least 5x our normal rainfall for the month. We only average 1.9" for the month.
This would be like us getting 50" of rain during a summer month (5x our normal monthly rainfall).
Quoting 818. sar2401:

I have one on my phone and it's usually within a couple of tenths of what my several and much higher priced than free barometers read. One of the big advantages is the ability to generate a tendency chart, which is much more important the reading at at any one point in time. Until about an hour ago, mine looked like a ski slope on the downhill side. :-)


Without much indication of accuracy, Bethpage NY is sitting at 1020.56 hPa.
Hmmmm. Moment of truth coming as to where and how quickly that offshore low forms. Spigot shut off in SC. Good thing, we already had a 1/4" of ice.

Quoting 806. sar2401:

Yes, at least in the short term. You can really see the dry air in brown being drawn up through Georgia and the Carolinas and scouring out the moist air as it does so. The now twin lows continue to move slowly east. As long as that movement continues, the counterclockwise flow around the low will move more offshore and dry air will become less of an issue. If the lows move more northerly and stay over land, the dry air will still get pulled up closer to the main circulation of the lows. This is the typical kind of mesoscale behavior of systems models are not good at predicting.


Roads have lost the fight, plows from here on out. Up to 2.25" of snow, no wind here in W.Fairfax.
Quoting 816. BahaHurican:

I don't know about FL as a whole, but we've had the wettest winter I can remember [so far, anyway]. Every front has brought several hours to several days of rain with it ...

The new El Nino impacts? Changing our climate to a rainier winter period?


Definitely an effect of El-Nino bringing the storm track further south across our areas.
Quoting 800. Drakoen:

Temp has dropped to 23 here.


Same. 3 or so inches on the ground so far too. Just a guess though, no idea how tall the grass in my backyard is.. Front looks like a lil more so yeah, idk.
Dry air moving into my location with a WNW wind gusting to 26 mph and clear blue skies.
Anyone notice that off shore circulation in the ocean. Man that storm is going to be a key player in this storm as its taking moisture away from ocean on its way out to see. Interesting circular motion from canada to texas to florida. Seems to be pulling moisture from the west.
828. redux
Quoting 793. Drakoen:

1.25 in. here. Elevator to the apartment building malfunctioned on my way back up.


i have advised the person sitting next to me to use the stairs when he goes out to check out the weather.
Florence,SC 993mb and rising.

Quoting 821. LongIslandBeaches:



Without much indication of accuracy, Bethpage NY is sitting at 1020.56 hPa.
About 2" so far in College Park MD. Not bad at all so far but the main event hasn't started.

Roads are moderately slippery but not as bad as wednesday night. Not really enough to plow yet though the plow has been by once.
Quoting 809. necanicumwoman:

I wish it were the Seahawks playing the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Jan 24, but alas, the Panthers knocked the Seahawks out of the playoffs last Sunday, Jan 17. The Panthers are playing the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals????

Meanwhile, things are still pretty quiet in my neck of the woods. I'd like to think that's it, but I'm waiting to see whether we'll get enough of a "fetch" from the EPac to fuel night-time downpours.





On my way to work yesterday morning I noticed several utility trucks headed south. Nice to see them heading out before the event. Hydro Quebec saved my area a few years ago after "Snowtober" several days after the storm.
From Local Raleigh news: 70,000 people in area without power... mostly south and east of Raleigh. More outages are occuring. RDU is got up to 32 deg; so for now, no more ice accumulation. However, the wind is picking up.
Have about almost 1 and a half inches, going to 2 inches soon.
Quoting 816. BahaHurican:

I don't know about FL as a whole, but we've had the wettest winter I can remember [so far, anyway]. Every front has brought several hours to several days of rain with it ...

The new El Nino impacts? Changing our climate to a rainier winter period?


It has in the past in South Florida. Couple years back, the Weather Channel interviewed me out on our boat, and we discussed the difficulty of forecasting into the future, in regard to Okeechobee Lake levels, and unnatural polluted discharges. The LORS, (Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule) has triggers at various lake heights which determine discharge volumes. El Nino usually means our estuary gets no time at all to recover from the "last" rainy season assault of polluted fresh water. The State of Florida just legislated all pollution control compliance to be "voluntary" by agriculture, so the water is just getting more polluted. Toxic farming, where profits trump land stewardship, and responsible farming is BIG business in Florida.
Quoting 821. LongIslandBeaches:



Without much indication of accuracy, Bethpage NY is sitting at 1020.56 hPa.
The closest official station is apparently Farmingdale. It's at 1024, but it usually takes about a day for the sensor to settle down and give more accurate readings. BTW, it will still work, just not as accurately, if the phone doesn't have a barometric pressure sensor. The tendency chart will give a good look at what's happening even if the exact pressure is wrong. Pretty amazing what something we can hold in our palms can do. I am, however, still looking for apps that will tie my shoes and make poached eggs in the morning. :-)
837. vis0

Quoting 544. washingtonian115:

I'm 5'3 and with snow drifts forecast to be as high as 6 feet I think i will wait to send the kids out there and myself.GFS has been showing 4 feet again for N.W D.C we'll wait until the snow compresses to come out to play in it.
reply at my zilly blog pg.6 cmmnt#285
Quoting 831. BahaHurican:

Arizona Cardinals????

Meanwhile, things are still pretty quiet in my neck of the woods. I'd like to think that's it, but I'm waiting to see whether we'll get enough of a "fetch" from the EPac to fuel night-time downpours.




Yes, Arizona Cardinals. Were you waiting for, maybe, the Browns to show up instead? :-)
Quoting 835. indianrivguy:



It has in the past in South Florida. Couple years back, the Weather Channel interviewed me out on our boat, and we discussed the difficulty of forecasting into the future, in regard to Okeechobee Lake levels, and unnatural polluted discharges. The LORS, (Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule) has triggers at various lake heights which determine discharge volumes. El Nino usually means our estuary gets no time at all to recover from the "last" rainy season assault of polluted fresh water. The State of Florida just legislated all pollution control compliance to be "voluntary" by agriculture, so the water is just getting more polluted. Toxic farming, where profits trump land stewardship, and responsible farming is BIG business in Florida.


If it keeps up you won't be able to to farm or fish in Florida. And all the native wildlife will be sick or gone.

And down South all the fresh water will be contaminated with salt water. It isn't too late to change these aspects.

However, the long term threat will be oceans rising.

This is storm dumping torrential amounts of rain should make for some intense releases from Lake O.
Still below freezing here in Durham. Sleet/ice seems to have started to taper off. Another big batch coming through later this evening. Amazingly right now there are only a handful of power outages in Durham.
My Accurite Weather station thingy says the current pressure is 29.89inHg

No idea about the accuracy.
Quoting 838. sar2401:

Yes, Arizona Cardinals. Were you waiting for, maybe, the Browns to show up instead? :-)
I really did laugh at this .... lol ....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
State College just added York and Lancaster counties to the Blizzard Warning. Woot.

Eric Horst, the meteorologist at Millersville University, upped his snowfall totals to 16-24" for Lancaster County, PA. State College has us at:

Tonight
Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Blustery, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Saturday
Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

So that's 19-29" from them.

And then the SREF upped its mean to 27" for Lancaster. Link
Quoting 818. sar2401:

I have one on my phone and it's usually within a couple of tenths of what my several and much higher priced than free barometers read. One of the big advantages is the ability to generate a tendency chart, which is much more important the reading at at any one point in time. Until about an hour ago, mine looked like a ski slope on the downhill side. :-)


OK. This technophobe has been resisting for years now upgrading to a so-called 'smart' phone, taking stoic refuge in my ancient 'dumb' flip-phone: Who wants to learn another ^&*((^&*#@#!(-ing piece of software techno-goop?

But phones can now do barometers...? Hmm. I may have to rethink my position.
We have 5 inches on the ground east of Amherst, VA, and presently the snow has stopped. I'm quite curious what tonight and tomorrow will bring. So far I'm very happy with the giant snowstorm.
The SAL is back...





Quoting 816. BahaHurican:

I don't know about FL as a whole, but we've had the wettest winter I can remember [so far, anyway]. Every front has brought several hours to several days of rain with it ...

The new El Nino impacts? Changing our climate to a rainier winter period?


El Nino shouldn't really change the climate, it's just a short cycle. There is a good amount of evidence that the warming Earth will increase annual rainfall in Florida though. The reason why, is Florida's climate history is very much impacted by water temperature cycle. It's well known that Florida used to be like a mediterranean climate/subtropical desert like SW California.

The reason why was that way, way back, water temps were much cooler surrounding FL, as a result, it is supported that summers were dry because of the lack of moisture and lack instability from the cooler waters, and that fronts from fall through spring was the "rainy season" in the same way that is in southern CA. Though it's not that is believed there was more rain from fronts back then, it's just that for a dry climate, rainy season is relative term. Southern California's rainy season averages about as much rain as the dry season in FL so it's a good comparison.

Warming water temps over time gradually brought about a summer rainy season, increasing heavy rains and humidity during the long summer, bringing about the climate. There are a few ancient clues that can be spotted still today of this, including the very sandy and poorly fertile soils found in much of Florida due to a short history of more dense foliage. Most soils further north are much richer due to an ancient history of dead plants and animals returning back to the soil. You can even find a few cactus species and desert shrubs that can be found in high terrain areas of interior Florida which used to be desert islands. Apparently these desert looking plants while looking good for a desert, have adapted to the wetter conditions, and wouldn't do well in actual dry climates if transplanted.

SW FL water management district has shows that yearly average rainfall across the basin has increased by about 5-7 inches over it's data recording history, and while that may not seem like much, it's a change in climate average so it's big. All of that can be seen by an increase in summer rains, with no real long term change during the drier season. With the worlds oceans rapidly warming, including around FL, no reason that FL's rainy season won't grow longer and wetter.

I'm not really sure how the AGW affects ENSO, or if it does it all. I also am not sure if we have any way of proving it right now, I'd have to look into it.
Hiccups again???
Or did everyone go to Dinner at the same time......
Quoting 846. percylives:

We have 5 inches on the ground east of Amherst, VA, and presently the snow has stopped. I'm quite curious what tonight and tomorrow will bring. So far I'm very happy with the giant snowstorm.
Good evening Percy..We have 5 in here in Mid TN and still comin...It really is cool...Specially for a dude from South FL..This is my 4th snowstorm tho...
DOH..........