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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

All quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on July 01, 2007

Clouds and showers associated with a weak trough of low pressure extend off the east coast of Florida several hundred miles to the northeast. Wind shear has dropped to about 20 knots over this system, so some slow organization is possible over the next day as it moves east-northeast away from the U.S. coast. However, wind shear is expected to increase on Monday over the disturbance, as it approaches the cold front from an extratropical cyclone. The disturbance should merge with the front by Wednesday without developing into a tropical depression. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation anywhere in the Atlantic over the coming week. Have a great 4th of July holiday week, everyone!

I'll post my July hurricane season outlook early Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Stormkat is going to come on here and say, "Guys the wave in the CATL won't develop....the tropics won't get active till August....even though last year an El Nino developed last year and we had 10 named storms, I'm still thinking that the La Nina won't be strong enough to have an impact on the season so I will say 9 storms"

That's pure uh... ignorance, I guess.
WPBH what is MJO??

Madden-Julian oscillation

When we see an upward pulse (green) that normally means enhanced tropical activity. When we see a downward pulse (brown) that normally doesn't allow for tropical activity because of the sinking air.
More reading here.
503. ryang
No way we will have less than 10 storms(If the right elements persist we could see storms in December)
504. SLU
we only got 3.5inches of rain in June this year compared to 12.3 in June last year.
SK is entitled to his own opinion but I don't understand why he thinks that we will have less storms this year (possible la nina) compared to last year (el nino).
GFS 18z forecast of the wave

Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 1:51 AM GMT on July 02, 2007.

WPBH what is MJO??

Madden-Julian oscillation

When we see an upward pulse (green) that normally means enhanced tropical activity. When we see a downward pulse (brown) that normally doesn't allow for tropical activity because of the sinking air.
More reading here.


Thank you!
lol i got bored and did a drawing...
Anytime MissBennet.
hey guys...that wave's looking descent.
511. ryang
LOL Drakoen!!
MODIS global subsets..Link
Hey Drak stupid question but here it goes.... How were you able to draw on that picture???
514. ryang
Hey Kris...

TCHP also isn't that bad near the wave...
Drak, my response to you is on the previous page.
This machine is so slow it hurts
Posted By: weatherboykris at 1:57 AM GMT on July 02, 2007.

hey guys...that wave's looking descent.



yea if you look at the QuickSat there is a wind shift at the SFC. I noticed that the convection increased somewhat as well. Gfs 18z shows something..
Posted By: Stormchaser2007 at 1:58 AM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Hey Drak stupid question but here it goes.... How were you able to draw on that picture???


I saved the image. Used Paint. then hosted it in imageshack..
Well off to sleep.

Will check up on the wave tomorrow morning.
Posted By: Stormchaser2007 at 1:58 AM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Hey Drak stupid question but here it goes.... How were you able to draw on that picture???


You need to register with an image hosting website.Then you can load any image files to the website and post them here.
Pottery: Saving you the trouble...
The purpose of the carburetor is to supply and meter the mixture of fuel vapor and air in relation to the load and speed of the engine. Because of engine temperature, speed, and load, perfect carburetion is very hard to obtain. The carburetor supplies a small amount of a very rich fuel mixture when the engine is cold and running at idle. With the throttle plate closed and air from the air cleaner limited by the closed choke plate, engine suction is amplified at the idle-circuit nozzle. This vacuum draws a thick spray of gasoline through the nozzle from the full float bowl, whose fuel line is closed by the float-supported needle valve. More fuel is provided when the gas pedal is depressed for acceleration. The pedal linkage opens the throttle plate and the choke plate to send air rushing through the barrel. The linkage also depresses the accelerator pump, providing added gasoline through the accelerator-circuit nozzle. As air passes through the narrow center of the barrel, called the "venturi", it produces suction that draws spray from the cruising-circuit nozzle. The float-bowl level drops and causes the float to tip and the needle valve to open the fuel line. To cause a liquid to flow, there must be a high pressure area (which in this case is atmospheric pressure) and a low pressure area. Low pressure is less than atmospheric pressure. The average person refers to a low pressure area as a vacuum. Since the atmospheric pressure is already present, a low pressure area can be created by air or liquid flowing through a venturi. The downward motion of the piston also creates a low pressure area, so air and gasoline are drawn through the carburetor and into the engine by suction created as the piston moves down, creating a partial vacuum in the cylinder. Differences between low pressure within the cylinder and atmospheric pressure outside of the carburetor causes air and fuel to flow into the cylinder from the carburetor.
Isn't there a weather analogy to make with all this talk about pressure????
521. ryang
Bye WPB

Well i'm off to...see you guys tomorrow...
O.K thanks.
I'm just waiting to see waht the NHC says about it before i go to bed.
Kris,
I already have image shack.....
any way ive got it now.
this ls the CATL wave. convection is flaring up to what appesrs to be a sfc.

Link
Ah. Thanks Chicklit. Actualy, there isnt much in a carburettor that I dont know about. Know more about them than I do about weather, thats for sure.
You said your son lives in T+T, or in Venezuela ? I was not sure which.
just a wait and see game from here. It could be 96L if it continues to show signs of organization.
JP wave seems to be pulsing. Looks impressive. We hate dust.
OMG!..they said it might become 96L!...ACKKK!
gone for the night. back at 9 GMT
guys pleasse stop wishcatsing waves. Not saying impossible for wave to develop as it is hurricane season just saying some of us are making to much of it.
thank you pat!
Who's wishcasting?All I said was that it looks decent.I still don't think it will develop.
Not talking about anyone in particular.
Ok, so there have been several posts suggesting why it could develop. How about some on why it wont,
good evening all
Whats up ?
tcc, some of us are making too much of it, I will agree completely.

Just a wait and see game, actually.

Also...

SK is entitled to his own opinion but I don't understand why he thinks that we will have less storms this year (possible la nina) compared to last year (el nino).

But that's not an opinion (at least I don't think so, though I could be wrong), but rather wishcasting.
I do not want to rag on anyone guys but we need to be more careful myself included. Innocent people who know nothing about weather get on these kinds of websites to find out what expierenced people think is going to happen with tropical weather. They do not know how much of what we say is true or wishcasting. This is one of the most popular site there is. Why i bet right now there are many people reading this who know nothing about weather. We need to be careful about what we say here as we absoulotuley do not want to confuse anyone an cause them to make an unnesscary or wrong descison. Also for those people on here seeking advice it is fine to ask for advice but please make your descions based on what dr. master says and what the nhc center says in a storm situation.
sk has a point about us wishcasting to much.
Posted By: pottery2 at 2:18 AM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Ok, so there have been several posts suggesting why it could develop. How about some on why it wont,


Too much dust,too small and weak a cirulation.
we arre just saying that the wave looks impressive this early in the season. We are also taking into consideration the wind shift at the SFC and the flare up of convection. I doubt anyone would believe anything that is not 100% official.
We always discuss waves on this site, this one is no different.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 9:50 PM EDT on July 01, 2007.
Stormkat is going to come on here and say, "Guys the wave in the CATL won't develop....the tropics won't get active till August....even though last year an El Nino developed last year and we had 10 named storms, I'm still thinking that the La Nina won't be strong enough to have an impact on the season so I will say 9 storms"

That's pure uh... ignorance, I guess.


Pure not researching the impacts of each, and the impacts trending to and from. We'll see where this trough goes but. If you look at the maps below!

Surface Analysis July 2nd 2005.

Surface Analysis July 2nd 2007.

And for those who say the front didn't push into the Atlantic, It did on the 4th.

I hope the likes that are promoting similar to 2006 are correct, that would be great. I just don't think so. Similar patterns were observed in 2005 at this time and look what happened that year. IMO, every season is unique, that is what draws me to the weather, it is constantly changing.
Hi Kman, we are looking east at a wave.........
but that is about it. Alos guys just take a step back and look at the big picture i lowere my chacnes of development to 5%. we are talking about a tiny tiny little cluster of weak showers. Compared to larger more vigorous waves that we will start to see hear week after next this is nothing.
yes it does drak. It is i nteresting to see this suff this early. just as long as we do not start emphasizing it like it is the next big one.
I seriously doubt..that People would use the Blog for Life and Death decisions. We, well most of us here, are weather enthusiests,or hobbyist.There is no such thing as an amateur meteorologist. People know where to get their local info. They have TVs and radio too. Its a Blog. Nothing more.
Hi Pottery

The wave does not look too impressive but the quikscat pass shows a low at the surface. 1st July is too early to get excited about that
large vigorous waves lol. Look at charely how small it was. i am not saying that this is charely but overall size doesn't really play in that much. The SAL isn't affecting it much now because its south of the Bulk of the Dust although it will get into some of it as it moves to the north. I have to agree though with weatherboykris on the weak circulation.
You never know pat ones hopes they would not. i have met some pretty bizare people. sometimes you never know. unforuntunatley i fear some may have similar mindsets concerning the offical guys after their intially high storm prediction last year that was completley wrong as stormkat does and thus turn to indipendent sources for forecasts.
Oh heck, even if this wave does develop, I doubt that it will become anything more than a strong tropical storm. Not because of climatology, but because of the location it's at. If it moves more north once it passes the dust, then it may reach hurricane strength. If it even develops.
however it is a sad mark of ignorance that some people think that the nhc and outher organization like them are perfect and hsould never be wrong as they do not know how hard it is to make these forecasts and have them be right.
Okay..trivia time.Since we have a group.

What is unique about this track from July 05?

Link
TCC

Why are you so worried about what we discuss on this blog. This is a hobby for the people that post here. Do you think we should should post a disclaimer at the top or something ?
I suppose...that it made landfall where Katrina did?Unless you mean unique relative to climo.
4..


No..it remained a depression from The Coastal GOM slightly inland ..to Maine. ..

- 300 Kris.
Kman, I'm hoping that the wave stays south, and drops a truckload of rain here. The ground is still hard as concrete, and the wife has me digging holes for trees. I told her she should have married Rambo, but she did not see the humour in that. Cant imagine why.......
LOL Patrap...that's not too unique,though.
Nobody plants trees until I say so Pottery !

You arent very observant tonight Kris..lets move on to a Harder one.

Who was Hurricane Camille in Aug 1969 named for?

Hope's daughter.
LOL..you remember my post.Good recall..LOL
50 each
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGHHH. ITS HIM!!!!!!!!!!
Baraometer bob is very mad at us right now dr. masters i imagine may also be getting mad and i am a little disappointed in myself and some of us.
I'll take 5 landfalls for 1000 Patrap.
WHo introduced the Term Neutercane to the NHC and when?
Sorry Pottery, so what were you saying about that wave then ?

LMAO
TCC...I really don't give a crap if Barometer Bob is mad at me...
Gray Patrap.
TCC

What are you talking about ??
Just a geuss.
Baraometer bob is very mad at us right now dr. masters i imagine may also be getting mad and i am a little disappointed in myself and some of us.

For what? Watching the wave? Why would anyone get mad about that? I never said it will develop. I know you aren't talking to me specificly, but I'm one of the people watching the wave...
"scuse my ignorance, but who is J Hope esq. ?
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE NEUTERCANE?

As a result of some conversations I found myself involved in at the
recent AMS 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in
Fort Lauderdale, Florida, I learned that there are quite a few younger
meteorologists and graduate students (and some not quite so young)
that have never heard the term "neutercane", or if they had, had no
idea what it was or when it made its brief sojourn into the annals of
North Atlantic weather history. Simply put, the word was coined by
former NHC Director Dr. Robert Simpson to describe a certain class of
small, mesoscale subtropical cyclones that usually form in horizontal
shear zones near dying cold fronts or else near the centers of old,
occluded extratropical cyclones (what Paul Hebert termed a Type B
subtropical cyclone).
And yeah wbk, I don't care either if he is mad at me... I have my own opinion.
yes i do. I will leave this converstaion at that. g night all also anyalisis is fun but please do not over emphasize things. I will try my best not to in the future. Also kman get on stormchat for a while you will see. g night!
Alright...my turn,heh jp?Ok then...which of Bob simpson's children...his son or daughter...suffered worse home damage in Andrew?
Sorry guys didn't mean to shut you down liek that. I just think that some people brb included may misunderstadn the purpose of this blog for us IS a hobby and that if we are expected to be more conservative than maybe we misunderstand its usage too. I cannot say but i wan't to keep talking about this stuff without criticism from others. if only that was possible. it is sad jp and i will not say anything else about wishcastion on here. Why don't we ask dr. masters what he thinks about this whole thing. He is the expert after all.
Hey jp... It's not the fact that we don't seem to have freedom of speech on this blog, but the fact that everyone always argues (including myself) that is really beginning to make me mad. Weather is something we all like to study about; that much we have in common. But arguing is something we shouldn't do.
Guys, how about a reality check for a moment ?

This is a weather blog about the tropics.
We all come here to chat and exchange ideas.
No one posting here is responsible for any official forecasts

So, my question is-- what on earth is going on with all this talk about what we should and should not say here ???

If any poster is paranoid they will get the crap sued out of them because some misguided soul takes what they are saying as gospel then stop posting !
His daughter jp.
Power to the Post Kman..!
so are you saying us old timers need to come here and start hitting the "!" button on those posts that do not belong here?????

We had to do it last year many times and we will do it this year, even if we don't spend much time on this blog because of this crap that goes on.

So Please, keep Dr Master's Blog as pure as you can with real weather related posts and discussions. And keep those debates civil.


Of you have a problem , do it via mail or on another blog, but not on this one please!

Gamma
jp: Allison?
Allison
There is certainly some over-reaction going on here.
Cool it guys, whats all the froth about ?
and if you want to have innocent fun, there are so many other blogs to have fun on, but this one needs to stay serious focused...
That was a 'duh' question jp...LOL
sorry guys no offenses meant at anyone i am a little confuse about this whole problem myself as it happens every year but usally doesn;t draw this much cricticism. I think we should ask dr. master what to do i am signing out for tonight and i think that for now this topic should be dropped as it is quite upleasent.
Uh... Gaston? Alberto in 1994? I dunno.
hey everyone! Anything exciting in the tropics?
Crap lol... One more guess if you don't mind...

Juan in 1985?
hey Pat,

The " experts" have been as much wrong as they have been right. If us bloggers are supposed to be infallible then that about says it all !
Cindy
Littleninjagirl, not really, but there is a wave quite a bit far east of the Windward Islands that bears watching. Probably won't develop, but it has the potential to. Has a slight circulation and a ship reported 20-25 knot winds earlier.
And Ninjagirl, the wave is a bit too far south (further than south than even 10N) most likely to develop.
Posted By: Patrap at 2:51 AM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Cindy


Was a 'cane.
thanks koritheman - Anyone have any maps/ pictures of this area?
Frances
No doubt.
Huge storm...populated area...105mph winds.Has to be it.
Cindy Was a cane for an Hour..LOL.I was in it..
Littleninjagrl,here is the suspect !

I thought we had stopped using the term "wishcasting".
The 2006 season laughed at all the expert predictions. So let everyone have there say.

Ninjagirl, here is a link to the wave: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

The wave in the far southeast corner of the loop is the wave we're talking about. Some SAL is to the north of it though, so if it moves north it may weaken or dissipate. The SAL right there is not quite as strong as it is off Africa right now, though. If the wave moves west, then north a bit AFTER avoiding the significant SAL, it may develop. I only give it about a 35% chance of making it to tropical storm status.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:55 AM GMT on July 02, 2007.

damn loop holes in questions lol

ok ok Frances was one, but she was a Major at one point


Oh man...will you get the question right already?
..I take the fifth as directed by my attorneys..
Agnes?
kman - is it the blob by the 10 in the pic? Sorry i'm not good with maps :(
Had to cheat...sorry jp,LOL..Agnes.
I was 12 in 72. Was a good summer.
Ninja, yes, that's it.
A fifth invest...now ya talking StormW
jp....although tcc was wrong,he had a point.Some people do read this blog for info.
koritheman - to the left of that blob near 10 there is another area that even looks like it might have a slight spin?? is it just me or is it supposed to be doing that? i['m still learning bare with me here.
JP - what's with the disclaimer. We are on a tropical weather blog aren't we. Its not like we are talking about weather in a food blog. WTH???
July 1980 during the Iranian Hostage Crisis,Plt 3070.MCRD SAn Diego.Grad October 10th.
Hey JP , Noboddy said we had to do that. We are NOT a legal document or an insurance policy. I say its going to become a cat 5 and kill thousands...........
About Cindy,
I rode out Cindy on an oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. I can assure you we had 85 mph winds, 20-25 ft. seas. It lasted for 1.5 hours.
Sorry littleninjagrl I was away for a bit. Yes that is the wave we are watching. It was near 33W 7 N when that image was taken by the sat.
that's ok Kman. i also asked this question as well : to the left of that blob near 10 there is another area that even looks like it might have a slight spin?? is it just me or is it supposed to be doing that? i['m still learning bare with me here.
Cindy knocked out Power in the Greater New Orleans area and did significant tree and Line damage.250,000 folks were out of power Monday Morning..Cindy also went on to do Millions in damage in Atlanta as it wacked the Atlanta Motor Speedway..and removed the roof. She was a strenghtening babe as she came in.Was lucky she did not have another Day over the GOM.Would have been much worse.
6 years ,Till July 86..Air Wing
I like it Pottery, call it like you see it!
Here is the 18z GFS track:

Getting ready for bed, but here is my two cents..One of the best things about this blog (during hurricane activity) is that we have some very good amateur participants who make great observations "in-between" the NHC advisories as to intensity and other "real-time" observations. Case in point; In 2005 when I believe "Wilma" was headed towards South Florida, we were in-between advisories, NHC was expecting a weak cat-1/tropical storm,and many on the blog were commenting (based upon Sat and Doppler observations) that Wilma was not weakening, but, seemed to be intensifying as it entered South Florida. I concurred, called friends and relatives to advise that they needed to "batten down the hatches and sure enough; my mother in-law lost her roof/ and several frends had doors blown in/trees down, etc. (they had not really prepared for this storm). We all know that this is a "blog" and anyone would be a fool to use this as a substitute for "official" action in place of NHC/Official sources. However, it is a great place to learn about tropical systems and for weather "geeks" like myself to exchange information and ideas.....The regulars here seem to understand that and I hope that we can avoid personal attacks, and respect each other's opinions, as we really move into the season in the coming weeks...Good Night all and I will check in tommorow...........
Excellent. I Returned home and Became a Rig Worker for Chevron,...missed the salt air..LOL

E-4 Corporal
Gee, Thanks STL. That just put me in the old crosshairs man. Like I said before, I'm watching this wave, like I watch all these wave all summer long, and would love some real rain.....
Littleninjagrl

if you click on the link I have posted here you will see that this wave is one system and that there does appear to be a spin with it. I will post the quikscat pass next that reads surface winds. You will see that there is a surface low with this wave as depicted by the " wind barbs" that show a spiralling inwards of the wind at the surfaceLink
Actualy we have had 213 mm of rain in June. But the periods between the showers have been so hot, that the ground is still very hard. The trees are putting out new leaves, and the sun is wilting them.
here is the quikscat pass form 20:10 UTC earlier today. A surface low is quite evident in it



..but having said that, it looks like we will get some propper showers tomorow pm as well
Good night StormW

Kind of sad to see that the discussion has deteriorated into disclaimer land. Perhaps we should ask Dr M to post a universal disclaimer at the top of the site and that way we can go back to speaking freely.
WU does have a disclaimer,read the TOS.
JP

Kind of odd how this all just blew up tonight.
Did someone blame someone for a forecast or something ?. Sorry about asking but I was out most of the day
You guys are taking this way too seriously.
This is not a legal document, or a bill of sale. Its a weather blog. Come on..............
wunderground TOS...Link
I'm out. Check things out in the morning.
Nite all.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..klunk..


Gnight...
goodnight all
Pat,

I just took a quick read of the terms of use policy from WU.
It only serves to protect the WU from what is posted on the site by users. It does not appear to protect the posters themselves. If posters are going to become paranoid about this then they should ask Dr M to add a disclaimer at the top of his blog to the effect that the opinions and information posted on the blogs may not be relied on etc etc etc. Just a suggestion to restore peace of mind here.
JP, who are these others. Are you posting anything here that would be of any harm to anyone.? I think not. I for one, would have to reconsider my attendance here, if I thought that people like yourself ( and others ) were editing their comments because you thought that the comment would somehow harm?influence? affect negatively etc.
All the inputs here have validity I think, and to start thinking about what others might think is a bad sign !
Keep it true.
So, we're watching the blob around 35W/8N?
Well,hopefully by tomorrow everyone will have gotten over this. Seems like every few days something comes alomg to throw cold water on the blog.

Good night to all still lurking !
I think that you are over-reacting. I also think that it would be a real loss, not to have your input here.
OK jp.
Keep strong.

I'm out
Ok, JP, who started the crap this time? And, are we watching the blob at around 35W?
JP

Sleep on it. This is a hobby, not the NHC.
Moonlight

I am not sure who started it, I was late to the party. And yes, we WERE watching the wave near 35W LOL
Shoot man, stick around here. Let me check what this is about and I'll work on it! Stay here!
JP

When the next invest comes around the posts will be flying fast and furious. When Barry happened I could not keep up with the thread. I do not know what will happen when we get into the heart of the action
What happened here tonight reminds me of someone yelling "fire" in a crowded theatre. It will blow over
are there any systems out in the tropics to keep our eyes on?
Definitely holding it's circulation, shear is evident! Low level circulation is pale green and get brighter as they go up, also you can see the dust being drawn in from the North! IMAGE COPYRIGHT EUMASTAT 2007!

Miamiweather

There is a wave near 36W but other than that not much going on.
thanks kman and do we expect this one to develop or is it 2 south
36W is a long way out in the ATL to be thinking about development. I would simply watch it for the next two days to see what happens. One good thing is that there is lots of ocean between it and the Caribbean/US E Coast
hey jp, do you mind if i stop by your blog sometime? give you my input on some storms. i wont dis any opinions.

oh, hey all!
Hey, really...I see the troublemaker; but the problem is this is a "blog." That's it. End of story. It's not the NHC, etc. A BLOG for tropical discussion. If one can't live with that "simple" fact, then one should leave the blog or just lurk--in others words-"shut-up."

No one thought Barry would do anything (course, it really didn't); but, it still became an invest and later named. In the tropics anything can happen...things can turn on a dime.

The MAJORITY of people on here post intelligently -- if you will, a "consideration" of possibilities --- that's why it's called a BLOG!!!

NOW, ALL RELAX and let's get back to talking about the tropics.

96L is real!!! It may not be at 35W; but at some point, we'll see it. Kman is right this is a hobby. We should show respect. And as far as the post for "newbies" depending on the blog, well, there are plenty of posters who frequently remind everyone of safety issues, and professional forecasts.

NOW, where's the beer and chips? Personally, without looking closely, I'd say the 35W blob is too close to the ITCZ -- got to bobble north first and get some coriolis going good!

LOL, take it easy fellows!
Well I have to turn in now. Have a flight to catch tomorrow. May not be back on the blog until Wednesday night when I get back home

good night all
got it thanks good night
Nite, KMAN...have a great flight/trip!
MLC

The voice of reason !
Take it easy. Be back soon
thanks jp! i appreciate
*it lol
well goodnight all!
by the way can you say wow!






this take a look at the wind shear and it is forcast to get lower then what it is right now
So, guys, I see we have a wave to watch...maybe if it holds together and enters the caribbean it'll be something to watch (if shear is low)
I highly doubt this July will be like '05 though...no way we'll have another Dennis and Emily...maybe it'll be more like 2004's July..LOL

Anyways, the wave seems to have a surface low and some small convection...has to pass through the dust and go a bit north though.

Well, I don't expect an invest or anything more significant unless it holds together for another 24 hours or so.

Guys, I know I'm like the hundreth person who said this, but please stop your arguing. No reason to be arguing over blobs and stuff...let's all just relax, watch the tropics with ease, and not worry until something forms.
Have a great night guys :)
say bye bye to the wind shear
fishbubbles96.jpg

....uuuuuummm, could someone scratch my "back" fin???
I hear ya, TAZ!!! Low shear...not a good sign, might spin one up!!!
i think that one wave we need to watch it could be come 96L then are 1st cat 4 or 5 hurricane this take a look at the wind shear it is vary low
Taz, I doubt it...

The wave's circulation is very weak...though entering less shear, doesn't have enough convection. Also it may interact with South America and is entering some dust to the NW...not to mention it's not in a climatology speaking, favorable area of development. A bit too south.

Taz...please back up your point on why something as a major hurricane may form out of this CATL wave...other than shear...lol...shear is only one of the factors that come to play for development.
ok JP well do


good night all
But, Taz could be right JP. Still his post is just a "possible" consideration and good observation of low shear on his part. If it does spin up, it'd be "days" before a landfall.

But, based on its spot and other conditions, if even by slight chance it developed, it could have major potential from that distance in a landfall event.

Not saying it will, or won't; but even new bloggers should be able to discern "immediate" and serious threats...especially, if they'll just wade through all of the posts. Most will.

We'll see, Taz! It's a long shot; but, it could happen tomorrow!!! lol
Went trolling through the FL damage from today ( & left most of it in my blog) but came across this from yesterday..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1236 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM LIGHTNING JUPITER ISLAND 27.04N 80.11W
06/29/2007 MARTIN FL NEWSPAPER

A SMALL WOOD-FRAMED GUEST HOUSE OWNED BY PROFESSIONAL
GOLFER TIGER WOODS WAS DESTROYED BY FIRE AFTER BEING
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. TIME APPROXIMATE. NO ONE WAS IN THE
HOME AT THE TIME. REPORT FROM THE PALM BEACH POST.


&&

$$

KELLY


I saw it in the news yesterday, just didn't know it had made the local NWS damage report.
MLCgoodnight4.gif

Have a good night, podners!
Moonlight <--------out for some shuteye! (oooops, did I say "eye?") lol
JP, you have mail!
Floater 4 is active over the Atlantic SE now.

The GFS is now putting a weak low up near the Ga/Fl border. The NAM takes it a little closer to the gulf. And looks like a low form up in the big bend thurs.

Sky no one tells me these things!

I keep wishing they'd fix the dang buoys!
That test floater has been active for days. I kept wishing the'd move it a hair south instead of just seeing 1/2 of 95L.
JFlorida, good information, thanks.

Floridaboy89, I think the wave only has about a 30% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Chantal. About a 50% chance of becoming an invest in my opinion. Climatologically speaking, this is a bad spot for tropical cyclogenesis to occur, even during the peak of the season. There have been a few tropical cyclones to occur further south than 10N in the Atlantic basin though, in recent years. They are (at least the ones I can think of):

1933: A late June storm developed at a relatively low latitude in the 1933 season, and it even reached Category 2 intensity. This wave is even further south than this storm was, so I doubt development will occur.
1992: Andrew (developed at a latitude below 10N)
1993: Bret (did the same as Andrew, though further south)
2004: Ivan rapidly intensified to a Category 4 south of 10N (at least I think)
BTW 1933 may not to be so "recent". >_>
Morning y'all ☺

Got to get to work, but I notice that now the CMC and GFS both seem to develop something betweent he islands and Africa. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Looks like timing is pretty different between the two models.

See y'all this afternoon
724. SLU
I see our wave has held together overnight. Interesting.
morning to all,

yes SLU, very interesting. the models seem to gradually turning the wave into something
SLU do you live in St Lucia/
727. SLU
Yeh i leave in St. Lucia. Where are you from?

The models are gradually warming up to the idea of something forming
Hey SLU and SF. Good to see both of ya. Gonna have to take a closer look at this wave when I get home from work. Now that both models are on it, it has gripped my interest a little more.
SLU i live in st lucia Bonne Terre to be exact
730. SLU
Thats good .. I thought I was the only St. Lucian on this blog.
731. SLU
morning Junkie.
732. SLU
the wave continues to get organise very slowly. there are two factors that will keep intensification to a minium.
(1) a little too south and proximity to land.
(2) it needs to detached itself from the ITCZ.
if tis were to happen then we will have chantal on our hands.

off to work back later in the day.
Mornin' Everyone!
Well i'm away for a Jog...BBL.
Cmc has this cent. atl tw heading towards the butterfly islands. have a nice day
GFS says stationary. Will see which solution plays out.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 39W/40W IS
RELOCATED FARTHER E ALONG 35W BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY THAT
SHOWS AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR
8N35W. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MORNING VIS
IMAGERY COMES IN. ACCORDING TO THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...THIS IS
A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP A
SFC LOW ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE
. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N.
First visiables appears that the wave is better organized.
morning all, just checking in, still newbie here, looked at the latest quickscat image of the atl wave but am not sure if this means a closed low or what? quickscat
If you look closely on that Quikscat you can see a low.
that's what i thought phillies, not very strong winds though. Let's see if convection can hold together today.
Just because sheer is low doesn't mean the dust won't destroy it.
The NCEP site just got a whole lot better!
what dust? all the dust is too far north

Morning all ☺

6z GFS still developing the CATL wave. AS stated, shear is low. Also looks like dust is to the N of it and although it may hinder it slightly I doubt it will destroy it. We saw a good bit of dust in 05 and that is why we saw the waves remain week as they crossed the CATL, but then developed once they got further E. Also noticed that the area off the E coast this week will start out under heavy shear, but the shear is expected to drop off later as the system exits NE. Will have to watch that area and see if it could develop.
i dont think theres enough dry air, ive seen systems form in 2 times more
Nice post STory, and hg. Thanks for the quick scat!

Got to get back to work, but I'll see y'all this afternoon.

Quick Links
-Easily navigate models, imagery, marine data and much more.

ty SJ, you too
thanks SJ

Factors in favor of development:
low shear
warm SSTs
closed low
persistant convection
models picking up something

Factors prohibiting development:
close proximity to equator
dry environment

gotta give this wave a pretty good shot

50% chance of 96L
30% chance of TD
15% chance of TS
<5% chance of H1 or higher
The wave looks like it might be developing into a low.
It's already a low.
Good Morning All...Will be lurking this morning due to work and waiting for the T-Storms to fire up in the Panhandle later today (I'm over in Bonifay today)...The CATL wave is looking pretty good, but too far south at this point (we'll see in another 3-4 days). Also, waiting for JP to jump back in the saddle after a rough one last night...Hang In There Dude!
it already has a sfc. there is even slight outflow in the n circ.conditons are perfect for the system becoming an invest. 96L
Hello SJ and others... Great point SOC, what dust!!! This system is far enough south to avoid the effects of the SAL... The Aores high will continue to drive this developing TD towards the Windward Islands...
'mornin' . I see the wave is still there and looking OK. Good. We need some real rain in Trinidad.
Morning all.
Hello and Good morning. I would like to introduce a new member who posted in my blog this AM. She is "nolanell".

If one can..drop her a welcome wu-mail.Her blog is not up yet,but she is a very important person in my Life and today is her Birthday. The gesture would be most appreciated. Thanks,...Patrap
BTW, as I look at the vis and rgb loops this morning on the CATL wave, all other factors being equal (with the exception of shear issues) I'd hazard a guess that we may have a TD within the next 24 hours [disclaimer- "not wishcasting, just an amatuer observation not to be considered as a substitute, nor to be relied upon, as an official source of information!].......
I think its already a Depression .
good morning all

I am heading up to Fla for two days but thought I would say a quick hello
The wave is looking very good now and the circulation is quite evident. However, it will need to gain latitude otherwise it will go ashore in SA.As a slow mover it has time to do that. It is well defined for so early in July.

If the system gains in organization we will likely see a poleward movement more to the WNW.

Homegirl, that quikscat pass was from 20:10 yesterday. You can tell the time of a pass from the purple letters at the bottom of the image to the right. The time at the top of the page is not the time of the pass itself
This system is looking like one of those rare TS, or hurricanes that strike Trinidad and continue to track west. These type storms usually continue west along the north coast of Venezuela, and threaten the ABC Islands...
N Atlantic Imagery..Link
All things considered, I imagine this will be 96L very soon if it holds up.
Once it gets a little better organized, the Coriolis Effect should bring it on a coarse of W by WNW...
Shear is low enough to develop this into Chantal, but I don't think that will happen.
Thanks Kman, i knew it wasn't from today, but it was the most recent pass at the time. I'm interested to see an updated pass!

Pat, I dropped nell a line! It's my hubby's bday today too!
it now looks that most persons are beginning to see what i said about this system three days ago,this system could pose a threat to the central windwards.
Thanks,,shes my sister,,,,Shes been a lurking and decided to dive in...Thanks again Homegirl. Tell the Ol man..Happy Birthday too!
here is the surface forecast map. Two things to note IMO. The first is that the wave is shown as a closed low moving to the WNW on the 5th July. Secondly, there is a big ridge of high pressure to the N that would block early recurvature if it held. The next few days will be interesting to watch

If it is developing/developed into a low, interesting to note that it presently has convection on the "leading edge" when the usual problem is getting convection to form/wrap around the front (the East side needs a little work though)...........BBL this afternoon.
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 1:00 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

If it is developing/developed into a low, interesting to note that it presently has convection on the "leading edge" when the usual problem is getting convection to form/wrap around the front


That is a good indication that the system is not battling windshear...
Have a great day Nolanell !
Check your WU mail for a welcome to the blog
Posted By: weatherman99 at 12:46 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

I think its already a Depression .


while it is looking better and there is cyclonic turning going on...we do not know if there is closed low at the surface and it is lacking deep convection. If it can achieve both of those today then tomorrow we may have a tropical depression, but it is no where near depression status at this time
Welcome to the Blog Nolanell...Your brother has been an interesting and informative blogger on this site! Happy Birthday, too.
Welcome back JP.....
oh god.....dauntless advertising......LMAO.....i don't have a problem with blog promotions....but to advertise your business on here.....well....another new low....or maybe..i guess another hi for WU..they're attracting spammers
Morning JP.
Good morning, all!
Hey, given all the conditions, 96L is suspect! My guess is we'll see an invest declared later today!

Have a good day everyone and...
H A P P Y B I R T H D A Y, N O L A !!!
JP WHAT IS YOUR TAKEON THE CATL DISTURBANCE
I think an Invest is a pretty safe bet at this time. Conditions are just right enough for a TD to develop. It does have dry air to the west of it to deal with, but I don't think there is enough to hinder and choke it off completely.
Good point JP. Some of those waves end up outrunning their convection.
Oh boy...guess I better fire up the generator and burn off some old gas...just in case.
Gas for the grill...steaks, wings. Hmmm.
So according to the surface map, the heavy convection should run into South America, but the low should lift west-northwestward, and regorganize itself?
Link

The ITCZ drops about three or four degrees further south at about 40W. I think we'll see the coriolis effect take place somewhere between 40-45W and 96L will be declared. Past that westwards, I think it could have a tough time making a turn and likely run into the SA coast. IMVHO.
I hear ya, JP...keep posting 'em. What do you see the chances of it strengthening during the day today?
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