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Alex still not a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:19 PM GMT on June 29, 2010

Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it heads towards the Texas/Mexico border. Satellite loops continue to show a slow increase in Alex's heavy thunderstorms and low level spiral bands. An impressive large thunderstorm with very cold tops has erupted near Alex's center in the past hour, and this may be a "hot tower" that presages the formation of an eye. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 6:29am CDT found a central pressure of 982 mb, which is a typical Category 1 hurricane pressure. However, as of 9am CDT, the Hurricane Hunters has still not found hurricane-force winds at the surface in Alex. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is still limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C.

Impacts
Hurricane local statements with projections for how Alex will affect the coast are now being issued by the National Weather Service in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Since Alex is a large storm, it will have a storm surge that will affect most of the South Texas coast. NHC is giving a 30% - 40% chance of a storm surge of at least 4 feet affecting the Brownsville area, and 10% - 20% chance the surge will exceed 5 feet. In theory, a Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph can bring a storm surge of up to 8 - 9 feet to the Southern Texas coast (Figure 1.) Of course, flooding damage from the expected 10 - 20 inches of rain from Alex will also be a major concern, as will wind damage. The combined wind, surge, and flooding damage from 2008's Hurricane Dolly, which hit near Brownsville, were about $1.05 billion. Dolly was a Category 2 hurricane offshore that weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds when it made landfall. I expect Alex will be similar in its impacts to Dolly, though Alex's storm surge damage is likely to be greater.


Figure 1. Maximum Water Depth (storm tide minus the elevation of the land it is passing over) computed using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. The "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of five feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is ten feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide, and thus shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph. For more information on storm surge, consult our detailed storm surge pages.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 0 UTC and 6 UTC (1am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models did a pretty poor job, in general, of capturing the north-northwest motion of Alex early this morning, and are thus probably too far south in their landfall predictions. The official NHC forecast is thus taking Alex farther north than the models are. The most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The most southerly landfall prediction comes from the ECMWF model, which predicts landfall more than 100 miles south of Brownsville.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 4am CDT (9 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 84% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 23% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

Corpus Christi, TX: 44% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

La Pesco, MX: 42% tropical storm, 3% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 22% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 20% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 16% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 59 nm
36 hours: 82 nm
48 hours: 119 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 48 hours are are pretty close to average.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for Monday, June 28, 2010 at 7pm CDT, with the official NHC forecast track for Alex overlaid. Alex will be passing directly over the core of a warm Loop Current eddy that broke off from the Loop Current back in July 2009. Values of TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly cause rapid intensification of hurricanes. Alex will be passing over waters with less TCHP than that. Image credit: NOAA RAMMB/Colorado State University.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is approaching a region of ocean with with a warm, clockwise rotating Loop Current eddy that broke off from the Loop Current in July 2009 and moved west-southwest over the past 11 months. This eddy has moderately high total ocean heat content (Figure 2.) Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, this afternoon and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and moderately high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 79% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, and a 9% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images show the amount of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico has decreased over the past day, though dry air may turn out to be a detriment to Alex on Wednesday as the storm approaches land. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. I don't expect Alex to stall out again, so slow motion leading to upwelling of cold water will probably not be a problem for Alex. The main issue limiting intensification will be the fact that Alex is so large, and it takes more time for a large storm to organize. Thus, I think Alex has only a 20% chance of intensifying into a major hurricane before landfall.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The last two runs of the NOGAPS model has been predicting the formation of a tropical disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday or Saturday that will move northward towards Jamaica and Cuba. The GFS model, and the two models that use it for starting conditions, the GFDL and HWRF, are indicating the possibility that a weak extratropical storm may form along coastal Alabama late this week. It is unlikely that such a storm would be over water long enough to transition to a tropical storm.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex's winds will not directly affect the oil slick location. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast to south winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Alex is expected to bring a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coast in the oil spill region, which will push oil deep into the marshlands in some locations. The long range forecast for the oil slick region is uncertain, due to the possibility a weak area of low pressure might develop late this week along the remains of a cold front draped across the region.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Alex
2) A look ahead at what may happen the rest of hurricane season

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update between 2 - 3 pm CDT today, when the latest set of models runs will be available.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting dsenecal2009:
view from s padre island


Looks like the locals might be getting excited and getting more of their surfboards out soon, actually.
Simply amazing- HH Recon leaving Alex is still finding Tropical Storm force surface windspeeds 200 miles from the center...
1005. Patrap
The G-4 dosent fly till this evening at 7pm CST or 00 Z 30 June.


The NOAA P-3 had a Engine Problem last evening en-route to the Storm on a Experimental Mission and had to shut down a engine and return.

The NOAA G-4 is a GO today.
1006. FLdewey
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Alex is headed for a landfall at Matagorda Bay... see LBAR model.


Forecast FAIL.
1007. Patrap
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 28 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 30/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0901A ALEX
C. 29/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 30/0000,0300,0600Z
B. AFXXX 1001A ALEX
C. 29/2200Z
D. 23.5N 94.2W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 30/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1101A ALEX
C. 30/0700Z
D. 24.1N 95.3W
E. 30/0830Z TO 30/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 01/0000Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA 42 WILL BE DOING RESEARCH FLIGHTS INTO
ALEX WITH TAKEOFFS EVERY 12 HRS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
(29/0800Z, 29/2000Z THROUGH 30/0800Z) OPERATING
ALTITUDE 12,000 FT.
Quoting RitaEvac:
42mph gust E of Corpus at a buoy,

42 mph winds is a typical day in CC!
1010. Torgen
Doc Masters just updated his blog post, above.
Latest visible imagery of Alex.

1012. USSINS
Quoting dsenecal2009:
view from s padre island



Whoa!
Here is my latest forecast based on the steering flow and pattern trend. I am north of the model consensus and a tad north of the NHC track. I feel the storm will continue a NW motion, perhaps jogging WNW at times as people have been seeing on the blogs. The ridge as you see on the map under here is building and moving southeast, pushing the trough away to the east. This should allow Alex to steer WNW in time, however, my forecast continues a NW, close to WNW motion because the high is still up in the upper-midwest and building. I find my forecast as well as the NHC track reasonable do to these factors.
FORECAST NOT WRITTEN IN STONE
For those who thin I have been wishcasting this, look on the past blogs a few days ago where I based my other forecasts for TD1/Alex to head more north. I can't just go by models and not the steering maps, water vapor images. I may be off, or right. This is my general opinion on where Alex COULD head to. I am almost 100% sure that the storm will stay in my cone at all times.

Factors
Photobucket

My LATEST forecast for TS Alex
Photobucket

Any change can occur with a northward shift, or a westward shift. People in Southern Texas needs to be preparing for the worst, we can't afford to lose lives in the times we live in. Stay safe!
1014. RJT185
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Porque me andan ignorando? :(


Que te hace decir eso?
1015. Torgen
DOH!

Never mind, thats GMT. I saw text shift, but that must have been an image loading.

(hides under a rock)
1016. JamesSA
Quoting Orcasystems:
South of track, but running parallel.



AOI

AOI

AOI

Hurricane Hunter Data

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
South of track would be good news.
Quoting IKE:
It moved .2N and .5W again. It's moving WNW. Why they keep it as a NW is ?

.1 degree of latitude is a constant distance. .1 degree of longitude changes in distance as you go toward the pole, therefore, they are not equal.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
I think that the High pressure will weaken based on the most recent CIMISS and Alex will hit closer to Corpus Christi.

and what do u think will cause the high to weaken?
1019. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:
South of track, but running parallel.



AOI

AOI

AOI

Hurricane Hunter Data

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Watch for it to see if it follows the model curve which is concave towards the south (curving westward with time) or if the track becomes slightly concave towards the north (curving northward with time). With it making the sudden jerk left already, if it stays south of the model consensus then it is either going to go in farther south or take a little NW curve at the end right before landfall, which could take it up pretty close to the border.
1020. dxdy
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Alex has moved more WNW over the last few frames , what surprises me Alex probably has the lowest barometric pressure for a tropical storm.


Alex is huge (a Behemoth) and is still interacting with land. His circulation seems to stretch from Atlantic to Pacific, and seems to be causing drag (friction). The barometer keeps getting lower and lower, and the wind speed does not not follow because of the friction with land. Think of a sling shot with the elastic band being pulled back to gauge the potential force when it is released; the more you pull it back the faster and farther the object in the sling will go when it is released. The is what I see if the pressure keeps dropping and the winds do not follow suit.

I think when Alex gets more out in the open water this may change some, especially if he tightens up over the warmer water he is headed to. If barometric pressure keeps falling, and the wind does not keep up, it is in my opinion that there may be a sling shot affect (rapid intensification), especially as more of Alex gets into the warm Gulf waters. I think if the sling shot does not let go during the next 12-16 hours, it may not. This is NOT a forecast by any means, it's just my observation and opinion.
Looks like someone told Alex to go west young man.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like someone told Alex to go west young man.


"Go west young man when the evil goes east, by the heart that's golden!" - Michael W. Smith
1024. Patrap
Quoting Levi32:


Watch for it to see if it follows the model curve which is concave towards the south (curving westward with time) or if the track becomes slightly concave towards the north (curving northward with time). With it making the sudden jerk left already, if it stays south of the model consensus then it is either going to go in farther south or take a little NW curve at the end right before landfall, which could take it up pretty close to the border.


Its basically following the main models in 4 decent vortex plots, just a couple miles south of the main projected path at this time. It will be interesting to see if it jogs a bit more north over time.

Quoting jlp09550:
Latest visible imagery of Alex.



gosh its gotta be doing something with the oil! I wonder if its wrapping with the bands?? When will they know anything about that??
Quoting reedzone:
Here is my latest forecast based on the steering flow and pattern trend. I am north of the model consensus and a tad north of the NHC track. I feel the storm will continue a NW motion, perhaps jogging WNW at times as people have been seeing on the blogs. The ridge as you see on the map under here is building and moving southeast, pushing the trough away to the east. This should allow Alex to steer WNW in time, however, my forecast continues a NW, close to WNW motion because the high is still up in the upper-midwest and building. I find my forecast as well as the NHC track reasonable do to these factors.
FORECAST NOT WRITTEN IN STONE
For those who thin I have been wishcasting this, look on the past blogs a few days ago where I based my other forecasts for TD1/Alex to head more north. I can't just go by models and not the steering maps, water vapor images. I may be off, or right. This is my general opinion on where Alex COULD head to. I am almost 100% sure that the storm will stay in my cone at all times.

Factors
Photobucket

My LATEST forecast for TS Alex
Photobucket

Any change can occur with a northward shift, or a westward shift. People in Southern Texas needs to be preparing for the worst, we can't afford to lose lives in the times we live in. Stay safe!


Excellent forecast, Reed.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like someone told Alex to go west young man.


Yeah, I said exactly that about 2 days ago "Go West young man", because I was hoping it would not get into the northern GOMEX and mess things up that much more!
1029. beell
It appears that the westward extension/return of the sub-tropical ridge along the northern gulf is the primary driver for Alex. The central CONUS ridge building east and south is not much of a factor yet. Should get in on the steering tomorrow and could result in a track S of W.

Thanks for the link to the SPI beach cams, whoever sent that! Awesome pics, yet disturbing at the same time. Looks as if the tide is getting quite high there!
maybe a hurricane by 5pm
Over 200 miles up the dirty side from the last Vortex plot, seeing 30-35kt winds.
Quoting Orcasystems:
South of track, but running parallel.



AOI

AOI

AOI

Hurricane Hunter Data

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Wow! If it keeps running a little bit south of the consensus it might run above my home! 25.7 N 100.12 W at Monterrey! We're receiving the first rain bands of the system. Soon some pics...
Quoting Patrap:
BayCam at Louie's SPI


You can control one of those cameras.
1036. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting Orcasystems:
Over 200 miles up the dirty side from the last Vortex plot, seeing 30-35kt winds.


Yep, pretty crazy, huh?
1038. Melagoo
12z euro south of brownsville, again
1040. xcool
AL, 01, 2010062918, , BEST, 0, 230N, 936W, 60, 981, TS
South of forecast track is not good news for Mexico.
1042. Levi32
12z Euro still way south...too much so I think, which it has been all along.

1043. xcool
EURO has landfall south of Brownsvill
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Alex is headed for a landfall at Matagorda Bay... see LBAR model.


Y9u had a slim chance about this time yesterday, but you're a day late and about 450 miles too far
what else is it showing, Levi? is it showing the action you addressed on your video?
Quoting Floodman:
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Alex is headed for a landfall at Matagorda Bay... see LBAR model.


Y9u had a slim chance about this time yesterday, but you're a day late and about 450 miles too far
Yep brownsville though is still at risk though people should be preparing now.
1047. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:


I see fetus x)
sorry. had to say that.

But really, he does look better than he did before... imo.
Interesting westward bend in the track?

back to just following along.
All the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida is seeing some rain from the outer bands. Impressive size of the storm.
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:


Wow! If it keeps running a little bit south of the consensus it might run above my home! 25.7 N 100.12 W at Monterrey! We're receiving the first rain bands of the system. Soon some pics...


Yes, your going to get wet :)



1051. Patrap
NOAA GOM ADDS Viz loop

Sweet fast scan
1052. Levi32
Quoting GlobalWarming:
what else is it showing, Levi? is it showing the action you addressed on your video?


A little bit...lowering pressures around the Florida area, but nothing significant.
TropicalStormAlex heading toward Carboneras,Mexico landfall in a bit less than 25hours
(Straightline projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)

Copy&paste [screwed up the coordinates thinking that I was pasting into a similar posting] into the GreatCircleMapper.

The shortest red line shows the heading between the last two positions. Below the map shows:
TSAlex had a heading of 293.4degrees (~1degrees north of WestNorthWest), while
traveling a distance of 35miles (~56kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~12mph (~19kph);
TSAlex's distance from DeepwaterHorizon* has increased by 8miles from 506miles to 514miles;
previous closure rate was heading away at ~1mph, and at current closure rate of heading away at ~3mph,
TSAlex remains an indefinably large number of hours away from the DeepwaterHorizon.

At 120hours away, personnel evacuations & shutdown procedures for ship evacuations begin.
(See the bottom of blog1521post705 for more info, & blog1521post3353 before obvious corrections)

* Which I've been marking as 28.7N88.4W
This

Quoting Patrap:


reminds me of this:


1056. Patrap
01L/H/A/C1
MARK
24N/94W
Quoting xcool:
AL, 01, 2010062918, , BEST, 0, 230N, 936W, 60, 981, TS


Where do you get this information.Plz post a link.
Thanks
Afternoon Pat, Looks like we dodged the first one. Let's hope we get dodge the rest.
The lowest pressure I have seen in recent years for a tropical storm at sea was 979 mb for Hanna in 2008. I wonder if Alex's pressure will go lower than that before becoming a hurricane.
1062. Patrap
We are Visual Mammals in a Big way.

Just Like on the Discovery Channel.

Didnt someone do a song about that in the Mid, early 90's ?
1063. xcool
anyway back to new Weather Forums .brb
1064. Levi32
18z BAM suite shifted south to a straight shot west into Mexico near 24N.

1065. Patrap
Aug and Sept will be Spitting out waves soon nuff ms.

2 pm Graphics Update:



1068. JamesSA
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
South of forecast track is not good news for Mexico.
Actually it is. The area right on the border and up the Rio Grande is fairly heavily populated and subject to flooding.

As you go south of the border along the cost it gets very rural quickly. You might have noticed "La Pesca" mentioned earlier as a reference point for position. I've been there. It is a tiny village with just a few houses and buildings and miles of uninhabited coastline to the North. They used La Pesca as a reference point because there isn't much else around there. So, the farther South it goes from Matamoros, which has a large population, the better it is for Mexico.
Quoting Patrap:
Aug and Sept will be Spitting out waves soon nuff ms.

Roger that
1070. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The lowest pressure I have seen in recent years for a tropical storm at sea was 979 mb for Hanna in 2008. I wonder if Alex's pressure will go lower than that before becoming a hurricane.


Alex has a Large,Immense circulation and the Ballerina will take a lotta time and energy to make it go to any status Higher.

Cat 1 is reasonable and expected.

The Intensity Guidance has been pretty spot on.
HELP
Can someone help me to understand in laymans terms how to read the wind probabilities chart
that this site has. I am in Port Arthur Texas and when looking at the current #'s with X's and 1 and 2's ---I get lost trying to interept.
Thanks for any help
Quoting Patrap:
We are Visual Mammals in a Big way.

Just Like on the Discovery Channel.

Didnt someone do a song about that in the Mid, early 90's ?


The Bloodhound Gang, lol. I'd embed the vid, but it might be 24 hour ban material, heh.
1073. Patrap
yEah,,dats the one.

LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
01L/H/A/C1
MARK
24N/94W


Is it me or in the last frames in trends more to the west, wnw than nw?
Quoting JamesSA:
Actually it is. The area right on the border and up the Rio Grande is fairly heavily populated and subject to flooding.

As you go south of the border along the cost it gets very rural quickly. You might have noticed "La Pesca" mentioned earlier as a reference point for position. I've been there. It is a tiny village with just a few houses and buildings and miles of uninhabited coastline to the North. They used La Pesca as a reference point because there isn't much else around there. So, the farther South it goes from Matamoros, which has a large population, the better it is for Mexico.


All a matter of degree...not far enough south could be very bad indeed...
Quoting terrehaute:
HELP
Can someone help me to understand in laymans terms how to read the wind probabilities chart
that this site has. I am in Port Arthur Texas and when looking at the current #'s with X's and 1 and 2's ---I get lost trying to interept.
Thanks for any help


X's are less than 1% probability of those winds impacting your area... 1 represents 1% chance, and so on... it may say 1(1) 1(2) X(2)... the number in parenthesis is the cumulative percentage of winds affecting your area. Hope that helps!
Floody, what's good?
1078. Chigz
So... by all accounts, center of Alex will hit land in Mexico and the Texas border gets loads of rain and some wind!
For someone like me who will be keeping count on US hits this year, Alex will not count...

Does we see anything else potentially brewing that could cause trouble next week?
Any thoughts on the wave between 45-50W and 7 N - fast moving wave with some vorticity!!


COME ABOUT 345 DEGREES DUE WEST
1080. Crawls
Quoting RecordSeason:
Based on recent stock trends and "breaking news", it looks like we are about to enter a double dip depression, complete with an all new wave of home foreclosures, retirement fund collapses, and complete meltdown of another wave of financial firms.

So much for your retirement, baby boomers and "sandwich generation". Honestly is a good thing, because you are the ones that tore down every resemblance of morality, and spent the nation into oblivion anyway, so I guess you guys get what's coming.


Who are you referring to?
Alex has not reached 24N or 94W
Quoting JamesSA:
Actually it is. The area right on the border and up the Rio Grande is fairly heavily populated and subject to flooding.

As you go south of the border along the cost it gets very rural quickly. You might have noticed "La Pesca" mentioned earlier as a reference point for position. I've been there. It is a tiny village with just a few houses and buildings and miles of uninhabited coastline to the North. They used La Pesca as a reference point because there isn't much else around there. So, the farther South it goes from Matamoros, which has a large population, the better it is for Mexico.


True. Tamaulipas has a population slightly over 3 million, and has a relatively low population density. And a lot of the population lives inland. However flooding on mountain rivers is my biggest concern.
I see the poison darts are still being tossed around in here..... DUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting RecordSeason:
Based on recent stock trends and "breaking news", it looks like we are about to enter a double dip depression, complete with an all new wave of home foreclosures, retirement fund collapses, and complete meltdown of another wave of financial firms.

So much for your retirement, baby boomers and "sandwich generation". Honestly is a good thing, because you are the ones that tore down every resemblance of morality, and spent the nation into oblivion anyway, so I guess you guys get what's coming.


Still clueless as ever... How do you keep from getting banned?
Quoting Crawls:


Who are you referring to?


Wrong blog for that, Recordseason. Sorry!
Quoting RecordSeason:
Based on recent stock trends and "breaking news", it looks like we are about to enter a double dip depression, complete with an all new wave of home foreclosures, retirement fund collapses, and complete meltdown of another wave of financial firms.

So much for your retirement, baby boomers and "sandwich generation". Honestly is a good thing, because you are the ones that tore down every resemblance of morality, and spent the nation into oblivion anyway, so I guess you guys get what's coming.


how do you get someone banned?
1088. cg2916
nvm
Quoting Patrap:


Alex has a Large,Immense circulation and the Ballerina will take a lotta time and energy to make it go to any status Higher.

Cat 1 is reasonable and expected.

The Intensity Guidance has been pretty spot on.


Oh I agree---and it is so big that I now think it is likely to stay at Cat 1 and not wind up. I was just thinking that Alex reaching a pressure of 978 mb or lower as a tropical storm would be cool.
Quoting Patrap:
We are Visual Mammals in a Big way.

Just Like on the Discovery Channel.

Didnt someone do a song about that in the Mid, early 90's ?
Quoting Patrap:
We are Visual Mammals in a Big way.

Just Like on the Discovery Channel.

Didnt someone do a song about that in the Mid, early 90's ?


Eminem then known as Slim Shady.
1091. Patrap
..Heavy sigh..



1092. xcool
lmao
Quoting RecordSeason:


Is your ignorance a learned behavior or an inherited trait?
Quoting cg2916:
NEW BLOG!!!


?????
Quoting cg2916:
NEW BLOG!!!


If Dr. Masters has a new blog I'm not seeing it.
Quoting cg2916:
NEW BLOG!!!


I don't see one
1098. JamesSA
Quoting Floodman:


All a matter of degree...not far enough south could be very bad indeed...
Well, the earlier track had it coming in a bit South of Matamoros, so anything more South of that track is an improvement.

You are right though, 'just a little bit South of Matamoros' would not be good for them.
1100. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Oh I agree---and it is so big that I now think it is likely to stay at Cat 1 and not wind up. I was just thinking that Alex reaching a pressure of 978 mb or lower as a tropical storm would be cool.


It would stand out.
If we start seeing flight winds of 85 knots or so, we have a Hurricane. We haven't seen that so far.
Quoting Chigz:

NO there isn't! SHUT UP!!


Really? I don't think you were screaming at me were you? I'll accept your apology in advance.
Quoting Patrap:
NOAA GOM ADDS Viz loop

Sweet fast scan


this sure is a sweet link, thank you. love the resolution
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Floody, what's good?


JFV! How's the curtain hanging?
Quoting Inactivity:


Where do you get this information.Plz post a link.


Link

Go to "invest_al012010.invest" and go to the bottom for the latest updates.
Quoting Floodman:


JFV! How's the curtain hanging?

ROFLMAO... gonna leave that one alone also :)
Did Alex just move due west for a frame or two or is that a satellite anomaly / illusion?
1110. RM706
Time for the DailyDownPour ... Alex Alex Alex http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
Doesn't look like this thing will become a hurricane until 11PM maybe, too much dry air it has to work on filtering out.
Wow, I should have stayed away today. Looks rough in here
CDO is gettin bigger w/ Alex, thats for sure.

Quoting ElConando:


Eminem then known as Slim Shady.


nope, was bloodhound gang. also did one called the lap***** is always better when the strip*** is crying. I blurred the words, but you get the point. Funny tunes.

If the "new and improved" GFS model that was forecasting landfall much farther north yesterday has done so poorly, is it really "improved"? Why did the supposedly "improved" model give such a rogue and inaccurate forecast?
1115. xcool
to much dry air.
WOW! The satellite presentation is looking REALLY impressive! I can't imagine Alex still being a TS at 5pm, but...
Quoting msgambler:
Wow, I should have stayed away today. Looks rough in here


Like I said before the poison darts are being tossed around like candy.
Afternoon Flood, Orca... That did sound a little bad didn't it Orca?
Sure, there may be a small slot or three of dry air but since earlier this morning the outflow on the west side has improved dramatically and for the first time you can really see it starting to turn the corner on the dry air entrainment battle.
1122. xcool
he slow down
Quoting Unfriendly:
CDO is gettin bigger w/ Alex, thats for sure.



nope, was bloodhound gang. also did one called the lap***** is always better when the strip*** is crying. I blurred the words, but you get the point. Funny tunes.



Ya your right got mixed up eminems song also references discovery channel.
Quoting natrwalkn:
If the "new and improved" GFS model that was forecasting landfall much farther north yesterday has done so poorly, is it really "improved"? Why did the supposedly "improved" model give such a rogue and inaccurate forecast?


Nevermind how badly it missed a major hurricane in the Pacific the other day... didn't even pick up on it. So much for "new and improved"
1125. RM706
Jeff Master on in 55 minutes and will get to talk about the first TS of the season!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
Alex is covering the whole gulf of mexico and the carib.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Based on recent stock trends and "breaking news", it looks like we are about to enter a double dip depression, complete with an all new wave of home foreclosures, retirement fund collapses, and complete meltdown of another wave of financial firms.

So much for your retirement, baby boomers and "sandwich generation". Honestly is a good thing, because you are the ones that tore down every resemblance of morality, and spent the nation into oblivion anyway, so I guess you guys get what's coming.


Has anyone else noted the exponential increase of mouths in here with no realistic connection to a functioning brain? Here's one less I'll be subjected to...

**poof**
The steering could get interesting, if Alex manages to intensify to a category 3 or higher storm. If you'll note, the layers of pressure essentially stall the system, if this lower pressure were to occur. No one is talking about this possibility right now, but I'm not ruling it out. If a stall were to occur, then we could be looking at a lingering hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I would also not rule out a land-in, then land-out scenario, if massive strengthening occurs overnight.

You hear of storms strong enough to "make" their own weather. This could be a case in point.

Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Nevermind how badly it missed a major hurricane in the Pacific the other day... didn't even pick up on it. So much for "new and improved"


no doubt!
1130. Daveg
Wow...now models are saying due West and then SW? Craziness I tell you!

Quoting xcool:
he slow down
Make west turn?
Quoting Daveg:
Wow...now models are saying due West and then SW? Craziness I tell you!

Hmm, I might have to retract my previous mocking of GFDL for sending Alex to the Cali/AZ border...nah.
Alex vs. Dry Air

Good thing for those in the path.
Lurkin' time...fo sho..it's dangerous in here!
1135. Daveg
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Make west turn?


According to the latest sat loops... still heading NW... though he did wobble a bit in the frame before last.
1128:

How many times have we heard things like this?

Odds are really low of your senario IMO.
Quoting msgambler:
Afternoon Flood, Orca... That did sound a little bad didn't it Orca?


Gambler!
Quoting RM706:
Jeff Master on in 55 minutes and will get to talk about the first TS of the season!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html


I know, I cannot wait until then.
1139. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmm, I might have to retract my previous mocking of GFDL for sending Alex to the Cali/AZ border...nah.


I kind of like NGFDL ejecting him into the EPac.
Oz is in Roswell NM on his way to South Texas or Mexico depending on Alex's track.
1067 RecordSeason "blah blah blah blah, blah blah, blah blah..."

Why do you post here? You've proven that you have no interest in TropicalCyclones.
Don't bother with answering me...
...but you should ask yourself, "Why am I wasting my life away?" on something you don't enjoy.
1142. Asta
wow i see we are playing nice and using our heads when typing.
1144. xcool
nw
1128.

Most likely not, though
1146. Asta
WSW motion in the bay of Campeche and the western Gulf is not that unusual. Here's one I remember off the top of my head. There are quite a few more, and other storms that got trapped in the Bay of Campeche. Not saying a WSW motion will actually occur with Alex, but it's not absurd.

Quoting Floodman:


Gambler!
Flood!
With a tightening core, there will be jogs and wobbles.
Orca got mail!
1152. Asta
If I didn't know any better- I'd say it looks like Alex is trying to throw off another system of two.. kinda like a hurricane Crack the whip!
1153. hcubed
Beginning to see a lot of the "This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards" postings, usually around the same people.

Maybe the Admin should consider a "three strikes" rule. Three posts that have to be removed for violating the Community Standards should result in a 24-hr user ban.
Blog Theme song...Or should be!Link
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
1128:

How many times have we heard things like this?

Odds are really low of your senario IMO.


We're already seeing some models moving this thing moving SW at or after landfall. What makes you think that trend couldn't extend to a loop tee loop?
1156. Asta
precipitable water
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oz is in Roswell NM on his way to South Texas or Mexico depending on Alex's track.


Will they even let him in ti Mexico with all his gear? How safe is that area also? Just wondering.
Back in 1995, models insisted for a long time that Roxanne would head to Texas/Louisiana. But Roxanne never got out:

Truly amazing for being only a TS

Could be coincidence or a feedback, or just the visible need to find relationships between shapes, but the storm appears to be adapting its structure to the shape of the basin.
1160. Patrap
Expect Upgrade at the Next advisory to Hurricane

URNT12 - Vortex Data Messages (VDM)

Mis.
Num. Agency Time Lowest
Surface Pressure Highest Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.) Highest Max Flt. Wind (from Rmrks) Highest
Surface Wind Map
08 AF 06/29 17:16:20Z 981mb (~28.97 inHg) 70kts
(~80.5mph) 70kts
(~80.5mph) 57kts
(~65.5mph)


Alex (2010)

Please note that the most significant observations for each mission below may or may not have come from the same message of the particular product you are viewing. The times noted below reflect the time noted in the last message of the mission for the particular product you are viewing. The mission maps displayed below are the path of the mission as determined by HDOB messages, no matter what product you are viewing.
1161. Asta
Surface winds
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Ha, eso quisieras tu, Floody; anyways, como sigue tu esparda, aceron?


Not worth the effort...
What will Alex do? NW, WNW, W, S....I don't think he even knows.

Auntie Em, Auntie Em.. It's a twister!!
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


We're already seeing some models moving this thing SW. What makes you think that trend couldn't extend to a loop tee loop?


Never say never.....but.....Not likely. Too much would have to change for the storm to get trapped like that.
Quoting hcubed:
Beginning to see a lot of the "This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards" postings, usually around the same people.

Maybe the Admin should consider a "three strikes" rule. Three posts that have to be removed for violating the Community Standards should result in a 24-hr user ban.


Agreed.
quick hello and post..been lurking in here during the day when I can..

just watching this storm, inbetween watching grandson.......

hoping it turns due west immediately! :o)


thanks for the info!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
1128:

How many times have we heard things like this?

Odds are really low of your senario IMO.


Hey Doug!
Race against time for Oz, eh? Especially with his recent setback.
Quoting msgambler:
Afternoon Flood, Orca... That did sound a little bad didn't it Orca?


I am far to innocent to have caught the bad jist of it... but it did sound wrong...
Thanks for the message Pat. All likely hood that there will be an upgrade at 5.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Back in 1995, models insisted for a long time that Roxanne would head to Texas/Louisiana. But Roxanne never got out:



A woman trapped by her lover, the ocean.
1156:

Since I find it highly unlikely those black regions in the gulf are off the scale low, I can only assume they are off the scale high in water content...
Quoting hcubed:
Beginning to see a lot of the "This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards" postings, usually around the same people.

Maybe the Admin should consider a "three strikes" rule. Three posts that have to be removed for violating the Community Standards should result in a 24-hr user ban.
One has wonder why a really bad post would only result in a single post removal yet allow the offender to continue to hold the privilege to blather away.
1173. Asta
IR3-GOES- WATER VAPOR
Has anyone seen a good map of how Alex is going to affect the oil now that we have a reasonable idea of track? I would assume that it'd pull most of it kind of back to the west towards LA...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am far to innocent to have caught the bad jist of it... but it did sound wrong...

**cough**
**choke!!!**
Its about to pass over the core of TCHP of 80 kJ/cm2, from 94W west to 96W at the 22.5N latitude going northeast up to 24N latitude 94W. The more westard the track the longer it sits over richer heat, the more northwestard cuts through it much quicker, either this in combination of the nocturnal maximum, less dry entrapment and an improved CDO, we can still see rapid intensification. Im still thinking no higher than a CAT 3.

I know the vastness of the system is hindering it to strengthen quickley, but this its' last chance to strengthen significantly if its going to make high end CAT 2 or Low CAT 3.
1178. Asta
Reported.
Lost my link to h2o vapor please help.
I don't know Dan. I don't see why they wouldn't but I don't run MEXICO.


Yeah Junkie, Oz messed up, but he'll still make it in time.
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Has anyone seen a good map of how Alex is going to affect the oil now that we have a reasonable idea of track? I would assume that it'd pull most of it kind of back to the west towards LA...


On Tampa news they said it is pulling it towards the west, and it could make it as far as the LA/TX border.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
WSW motion in the bay of Campeche and the western Gulf is not that unusual. Here's one I remember off the top of my head. There are quite a few more, and other storms that got trapped in the Bay of Campeche. Not saying a WSW motion will actually occur with Alex, but it's not absurd.



Alex reminds me a little of Lorenzo. with a SW turn Alex could take the same path.
1184. SeALWx
Quoting Asta:
If I didn't know any better- I'd say it looks like Alex is trying to throw off another system of two.. kinda like a hurricane Crack the whip!


IMHO, the most interesting/notable thing in that Funktop IR shot is the bright green hot tower!

EDIT: Apparently your pic has updated since my comment and the green shaded convection has since waned.

EDIT2: I just viewed a loop in that IR shading scale and the intense convection has actually been scaling back overall recently.
I apologize to the blog for the bogus hot tower call! :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am far to innocent to have caught the bad jist of it... but it did sound wrong...
"Innocent Orca"...Does have a ring to it....but NOT
1186. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
Expect Upgrade at the Next advisory to Hurricane

URNT12 - Vortex Data Messages (VDM)

Mis.
Num. Agency Time Lowest
Surface Pressure Highest Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.) Highest Max Flt. Wind (from Rmrks) Highest
Surface Wind Map
08 AF 06/29 17:16:20Z 981mb (~28.97 inHg) 70kts
(~80.5mph) 70kts
(~80.5mph) 57kts
(~65.5mph)


Alex (2010)

Please note that the most significant observations for each mission below may or may not have come from the same message of the particular product you are viewing. The times noted below reflect the time noted in the last message of the mission for the particular product you are viewing. The mission maps displayed below are the path of the mission as determined by HDOB messages, no matter what product you are viewing.


Are those surface winds or flight level winds?
1188. Asta
Quoting FSUCOOPman:
Has anyone seen a good map of how Alex is going to affect the oil now that we have a reasonable idea of track? I would assume that it'd pull most of it kind of back to the west towards LA...


http://roffs.com/deepwaterhorizon.html
Quoting Asta:
If I didn't know any better- I'd say it looks like Alex is trying to throw off another system of two.. kinda like a hurricane Crack the whip!
LOL It does look like that. Some models are predicting that.
Nice...



In the last couple of frames, Alex wobbles to the north.
The oil being pulled west does make sense. With the water being pulled into Alex, whichever way he goes, I am sure some of the oil will follow.
1192. will45
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely. They will get you one day i am sure
1187:

It says "surface wind map" followed by 70kts, which is 80.5mph...
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Reported.


While you're at it, report yourself for circumventing a ban...
Any models developing this wave fixing to come off of Africa?

1196. BDAwx
I would support rapid organisation before rapid intensification with Alex.
So if Alex does in fact have winds of over 80pmh, he should now be classified a Cat 1, correct?
Alex starting to live up to some of the hype at least on satellite presentation. It's shaping up into a textbook cyclone.
Just starting to get under Alex's "canopy" here in Port Arthur, TX. Looks like our mini-drought conditions will be nicely off-set by his outbands of rain. But seriously.....this this is huge.

It's actually kind've beautiful in a way.. with it's striped circulation. What are the odds those "stripes" of dry air eventually fill in? Aren't mature tropical systems supposed to moisten their own environments?
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
So if Alex does in fact have winds of over 80pmh, he should now be classified a Cat 1, correct?


Not that the HH found.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


X's are less than 1% probability of those winds impacting your area... 1 represents 1% chance, and so on... it may say 1(1) 1(2) X(2)... the number in parenthesis is the cumulative percentage of winds affecting your area. Hope that helps!
Amazing I am almost 200 miles inland in Texas and getting Tropical Rains already, storms rotating from Northeast to Southwest.
I think Alex is too far away to have much impact on the oil spill. However the persistent south winds forecast for the next several days are not good.

The marine forecast for the Deepwater Horizon site
1205. Asta
1206. angiest
Lots of showers offshore Galveston:

alex22
Oh, ok, thanks Orca. I must have looked at that info wrong... told ya I was a rookie ;o)
1208. RickWPB
Sure looks to me (on the vis satellite loop) that Alex is moving due west now. The spiral bands look different than what I'm used to seeing with a strengthening storm. Almost... but not quite... reminds me of a 'cold core' system. Very strange.
1209. Asta
Quoting terrehaute:
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


X's are less than 1% probability of those winds impacting your area... 1 represents 1% chance, and so on... it may say 1(1) 1(2) X(2)... the number in parenthesis is the cumulative percentage of winds affecting your area. Hope that helps!


In other words, x does not mark the spot!
Interesting how many obs are showing calm winds around Alex. Wonder if they're accurate...checking now.


(click for full size)
Quoting angiest:
Lots of showers offshore Galveston:

alex22


Awesome. If I give them a bit more time, I don't have to mow my lawn.
1213. Daveg
Quoting RickWPB:
Sure looks to me (on the vis satellite loop) that Alex is moving due west now. The spiral bands look different than what I'm used to seeing with a strengthening storm. Almost... but not quite... reminds me of a 'cold core' system. Very strange.


Nope.. there was a wobble... but still pretty much NW. IMO.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Oh, ok, thanks Orca. I must have looked at that info wrong... told ya I was a rookie ;o)


You might have been looking at flight level winds... vice surface. Not a biggie.. we have all done it at least once... some of us a lot more then once :)
I cannot wait to speak to Dr. Masters at 4pm, how exciting, yippers, ^_^.
Well, you guys have a good one. Be back later to hopefully watch Alex have some tequila shots and a chimichanga.
1217. Daveg
Raining off and on here now in Austin, TX.

Anyone got a good radar perspective from Brownsville?
Quoting RickWPB:
Sure looks to me (on the vis satellite loop) that Alex is moving due west now. The spiral bands look different than what I'm used to seeing with a strengthening storm. Almost... but not quite... reminds me of a 'cold core' system. Very strange.


You're right.. does kind've look like a cold core. The airmass can't be any different in the GOM than what it is in the southern states, though.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
The oil being pulled west does make sense. With the water being pulled into Alex, whichever way he goes, I am sure some of the oil will follow.


Oddly I was not aware that Hurricanes (or TS for that matter) draw significant amounts of surface water in; I had always thought they push water in front of themselves
1221. IKE
Alex is almost at 94 degrees west. It's only got to go to between 97-98 west for landfall.
Incorrect, RecordSeason... those were the maximum flight level winds. Maximum inbound flight level and overall highest flight level winds were both 70 kts... Maximum surface winds were 57 kts. That obs was taken before the 2pm advisory came out. If those had been sfc obs, then we would have had an 80 mph hurricane at 2pm.
1223. Asta
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
LOL It does look like that. Some models are predicting that.

What models? Please share them..
Quoting RickWPB:
Sure looks to me (on the vis satellite loop) that Alex is moving due west now. The spiral bands look different than what I'm used to seeing with a strengthening storm. Almost... but not quite... reminds me of a 'cold core' system. Very strange.


That's largely a remnant of that dry air he had on his W/NW side the other day. It's no longer particularly dry, but left a nice spiral of convectionless area where it was. The "eye" in the center is still open, with pieces of eyewall building and trying to close it off.
1225. angiest
Quoting LloydBentsen:


Awesome. If I give them a bit more time, I don't have to mow my lawn.


Watching the radar I see what looks to be a broken feeder from east of San Antonio back up towards Huntsville and beyond. Storm motions look right. Further north and west I don't see those kinds of motions. Closer to Houston there seems to be a broken band off to the southwest - Wharton county or so.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Interesting how many obs are showing calm winds around Alex. Wonder if they're accurate...checking now.


(click for full size)
Ehh, something's rotten. A couple of the "calm" obs are reporting 15 and 20 knots...
Quoting IKE:
Alex is almost at 94 degrees west. It's only got to go to between 97-98 west for landfall.


Then will eb done with him, Ike?
NHC Might have to shift south, they are pretty far off the consensus now.


ecflweatherfan----Thanks for the help
1230. Patrap
Chicory Coffee with Cream and Sugar Babies to snack on is not a Balanced meal.
This is a little better, but I would toss that ob from 42002. Only intermittent transmissions and the direction cannot be right...

1232. xcool
weak low in gom next week
The water surge will push inland any oil that it touches.. being it in front of the storm or to the side of it... The flood watches and warnings off LA are bad news for the oil clean up efforts for sure.
1234. Dakster
Good thing Alex didn't have time to really organize... We could have had another Ike / Katrina type storm.
no prob terrehaute... and to stsimons... x definitely does not mark the spot :-)
1236. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Lloyd Bentsen is dead. I don't using the name of a former Texas Senator and his picture is appropriate.
Quoting xcool:
weak low in gom next week


???
New blog
Quoting Patrap:
Chicory Coffee with Cream and Sugar Babies to snack on is not a Balanced meal.


Sure it is...define "balanced"
Quoting illinichaser:
Its about to pass over the core of TCHP of 80 kJ/cm2, from 94W west to 96W at the 22.5N latitude going northeast up to 24N latitude 94W. The more westard the track the longer it sits over richer heat, the more northwestard cuts through it much quicker, either this in combination of the nocturnal maximum, less dry entrapment and an improved CDO, we can still see rapid intensification. Im still thinking no higher than a CAT 3.

I know the vastness of the system is hindering it to strengthen quickley, but this its' last chance to strengthen significantly if its going to make high end CAT 2 or Low CAT 3.


You should be a novelist.
1242. hcubed
"...Ignore - Having your blog removed from the directory, removing easy access to it. This is more like a warning and typically lasts 7 days, if there are no further problems.

Ban - This is strong action, as it removes your member handle from the blogs completely, blocking access to all entries. The length of a ban is dependent upon the severity of the violation.

IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.

Troll Wipe - This is the most extreme action an Admin can take, and it is reserved for flagrant, repetitive violations of the Terms of Service. This will remove the user completely, making it impossible for them to access that member handle again...."

So Admin, could we PLEASE see a troll wipe? I'm like others here, who depend on this website to get the "between-the-NHC-reports" data, so that informed choices can be made.

I use the site for advance warnings concerning safety of life and preservation of property.

end rant...
Quoting Floodman:


Oddly I was not aware that Hurricanes (or TS for that matter) draw significant amounts of surface water in; I had always thought they push water in front of themselves
Well, the pressure deficit can give that impression given that the eye's central pressure, in a substantial cane, results in water levels a foot higher than normal, exclusive of wind effects. Maybe that is the source of that opinion?
1244. Asta
Link

NEW BLOG
1246. xcool
new BLOG
Quoting atmoaggie:
Interesting how many obs are showing calm winds around Alex. Wonder if they're accurate...checking now.


(click for full size)


I really think the winds havnt made it to the ground yet, its still in the stage where pressure is droping and winds are not catching up.
Quoting Asta:
IR3-GOES- WATER VAPOR


I SEE A SMILEY FACE!!! AT THE CENTER
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I don't know Dan. I don't see why they wouldn't but I don't run MEXICO.


Yeah Junkie, Oz messed up, but he'll still make it in time.


From experience I know it can be weird crossing into Mexico. Rules can change daily.
1250. Patrap
I aint wiping no troll..


Dats a fact.

They smelly and way to nasty.

Maybe we can get BP to handle that.
Good afternoon,

All I can say is WOWWWWWWWWWWWWW....

Alex is really coming together. It will not be long before he gains hurricane status if he hasnt already. Beautiful visible loop of the storm. Looks like the northern mexico will be in for some nasty weather tomorrow night.

It would not surprise me if we wake tomorrow to a major hurricane!
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
1253. Asta
1254. Patrap
I hope Oz dont spook any Cartel Members dressed in that suit.

Quoting xcool:
weak low in gom next week
where?
1256. RickWPB
Quoting Daveg:


Anyone got a good radar perspective from Brownsville?


Brownsville NEXRAD
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Lloyd Bentsen is dead. I don't using the name of a former Texas Senator and his picture is appropriate.


Yes because you are the authority on appropriate pictures and handles.

Wow this blog has really gone down hill. No wonder Drak and a few of the others aren't on here anymore. I just decided to jump back in for the '10 season to further learn about tropical systems and prepare for the upcoming season and all it is are people bickering about BP and 12000 other things that have nothing to do with the tropics. Get back on topic people.

1258. Patrap
pssst..


Look up in da entry.



Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami


1242:

You are pretty new to the internet aren't you?

Anyone who uses a cable modem can get a new I.P address as easily as:

1) Turn off power

2) Unplug Modem

3) Wait 10 seconds

4) Plug modem back in


Even if the admin contacts your ISP and has them ban you, you can still get around it through other, legally available means.

You just think people troll this forum. Many other sites get endless posts of the "nuclear launch detected" thread nuke gag, that takes a full time admin non-stop deleting and banning.

Personally, I'm glad there are enough people at least interested in weather to even bother coming here.
1260. Daveg
Quoting RickWPB:


Brownsville NEXRAD


Thank you
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC Might have to shift south, they are pretty far off the consensus now.




That would be back to where it was from the start!
Quoting Asta comment#1209:


Yet folks say "Alex shouldn't be a problem with the oil spill." BALONEY! Those swells are gonna push oil deeper into the marshes and make the 'oil line' wider on the beach. We even have steady winds here in MIA.
1263. Daveg
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC Might have to shift south, they are pretty far off the consensus now.




Except for the fact that its not yet moving the way that last run of models says it should be moving.
1264. Patrap
What is going on with Alex?? The various water vapor loops I watch are showing that the SW redirection seems to be more than a little jog or wobble. Alex seems to be taking on a more SW component. I have also noticed that the north side of the storm is less concentric and flattening out a touch. Is anybody else seeing that?
Link
It's starting to look like the pros just might have scored another one this time, at least on track.

If anyone in the path wakes up tomorrow and sees anything more than a minimum category 2 out there, I think you should run for the high hills.
http://www.sanbenito.k12.tx.us/Interesting_Facts/interesting_hurricane.html
some interesting facts from NOAA's archives
Lol...

If Alex goes south, it could get in the pacific as a TS or TD...
1269. Daveg
Quoting MrNatural:
What is going on with Alex?? The various water vapor loops I watch are showing that the SW redirection seems to be more than a little jog or wobble. Alex seems to be taking on a more SW component. I have also noticed that the north side of the storm is less concentric and flattening out a touch. Is anybody else seeing that?
Link


Negative on SW movement.
Banding and outflow on northwest and west side really starting to improve dramatically. The perceived SW movement is the optical illusion caused by the convection wrapping around the west and southwest side. Full eyewall forming?
Water vapor not quite as impressive as rainbow but the movement does seem more WNW now. What do you all think? Still NW?
1273. Daveg
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Water vapor not quite as impressive as rainbow but the movement does seem more WNW now. What do you all think? Still NW?


After staring at the loops for a bit, gotta go with still NW at the moment.
Dr. Masters talking about Alex now on hurricane haven!
NEW BLOG!!!