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Alex slowly organizing; a Texas or Mexico landfall most likely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

Tropical Storm Alex is slowly growing more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms have increased in areal extent over the past few hours, and low level spirals bands are beginning to form to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification, and limiting heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's northwest side. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is some dry air to the northwest of Alex that may be inhibiting development. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fixes, at 6:32 am CDT and 7:16 am CDT, both had central pressures of 989 mb, with top surface winds in the 50 - 55 mph range.


Figure 1. Alex over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, June 27, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Track forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
Our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement this morning. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and Canadian--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region near the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The northernmost landfall location is Port O'Connor, as predicted by the Canadian model. The southernmost landfall location is near Tampico, Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Alex's landfall time varies from Wednesday evening to Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL. Three out of four of those models are predicting a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, with only the ECMWF model predicting a landfall well south of the Texas border. With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. That means that 1/3 of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 5am EDT (09 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 64% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 14% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 59% tropical storm, 9% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 42% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 38% tropical storm, 5% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 18% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex an 81% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 17% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex is moving at just 6 mph, and it would not take much of a slackening of the steering currents to stall out the storm. A slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In fact, the ECMWF model predicts that Alex could stall out right at landfall on Thursday. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 20% probability in my estimation.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong east to southeast winds of 20 - 25 knots will develop over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a a href= video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
I'll have an update between 2 - 3pm CDT today, when the next set of model runs will be available.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nash28:
Tis ok Keith.

Just trying to bring some levity if at all possible...


Man, good to see you!
next tropical low
Quoting Levi32:


Good, very tired, how about yourself.


I loved your video, BTW. Likewise, just here, busy with summer classes, lol.
Quoting Levi32:
The southward shift in the models may be picking up on Alex's reluctance to start moving. The longer he sits, the sooner the ridge will build back in to curve him back west and the trough will run out of time to pull him north. If Alex starts really waiting a super long time to go anywhere, then we may have to think about after the ridge has passed by....where he might make yet another northward turn on its western periphery. He certainly has been moving far slower than any model or ensemble member I have seen forecast.


You see what I've been noticing. In fact, if it continues at this leisurely WNW track, it will run into a small ridge that may actually drive it back south where it will meander for awhile.
Watching Alex spin reminds me of bath water going down the drain...that's probably not a good thing, huh?
Quoting Floodman:


Anyone want to know about Pat's activities post-Katrina needs to WUMail me; I can give you a fair idea of what he did...Pat is not one to blow his own horn but his activities post-Katrina were heroic, to say the very least.

What any of us in the NOLA area saw and dealt with post Katrina is more than most of you folks would beleive or are capable of comprehending and i don;t mean that as a put down...it's just that it would be hard to beleive what happened to a major US city. You can say you saw it on the news, but if you weren't there all you really saw was a made for TV movie by comparison

Enough about that; I just felt I needed to say something about my friend Pat


Could not have said it any better. Many of us that were on the ground, in the subdivisions and in the City will carry with us those images, sounds (or lack there of), and smells for the rest of our life. It was quite horrific.
1007. GBguy88
Quoting twhcracker:
hey didnt dr masters say, when he had the blog about the various oil spill speculations, that the oil couldnt enter the gulf loop without a north wind, which we probably wouldnt have until fall or if a hurricane came and after making landfall the wrap would create north wind pushing the oil south. someone said that. dont remember if it was dr masters or not. but now i am wondering if alex could do this if it makes landfall and hooks right as models show.


Even being so far south, Alex is generating quite a bit of wave action throughout the Gulf, and that's what worries me. Even on his current path, Alex is going to move a lot of water. I wonder what kind of oil is going to be churned up from beneath the surface and pushed onshore. Booms are rendered essentially useless in rough seas.
1008. srada
Quoting srada:




dead on!!


I think Katrina is a storm where all of the world got to see up close for the first time..Im not trying to say it was the worst storm but for the first time, the media brought raw emotion and reported non filtered news..the images from the superdome to the ninth ward still haunts me..NO ONE should ever have to go through that type of situation and I think thats why people are really connected to that storm even if they werent there..that storm will affect generations to come..
Quoting GBguy88:


Admittedly, I didn't have much sympathy for New Orleans in hurricane situations before I visited the city. I was of the "your choice to live below sea level *points finger*" mentality. I spent one weekend there, and now I go back as often as I possibly can. I'll drive over just to eat lunch if I'm feeling squirrely. Love that damn city and wish it the best.


I just visited New Orleans too. People there take so much pride in their city, on every sidewalk I saw people out front cleaning, plus they have an amazing WW2 museum that is worth every dollar of the $23. Everyone was friendly and helpful I met.
Quoting Boudreaux77:
Hi all. I'm a NOLA resident that's lurked here for a while in order to get information about storms. I just want to say that I appreciate all the folks that stay on topic, keep the chat weather-related, and refrain from discussing potentially divisive and distracting political issues. Thanks for your diligence and constant, trustworty analysis.

Back to lurk mode...


Except that these comments are not political as you say, they are social / cultural. This discussion IS relevent to a tropical weather blog. We should not run or consider a ban on bloggers who discuss this. Were there social/ cultural awareness lessons learned from Katrina? Hopefully so.
That is great!!
1012. Patrap

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting Floodman:


Anyone want to know about Pat's activities post-Katrina needs to WUMail me; I can give you a fair idea of what he did...Pat is not one to blow his own horn but his activities post-Katrina were heroic, to say the very least.

What any of us in the NOLA area saw and dealt with post Katrina is more than most of you folks would beleive or are capable of comprehending and i don;t mean that as a put down...it's just that it would be hard to beleive what happened to a major US city. You can say you saw it on the news, but if you weren't there all you really saw was a made for TV movie by comparison

Enough about that; I just felt I needed to say something about my friend Pat


Why I don't watch TV news any more. I'll read what I want. New Paper Magazine, online. I'd rather watch CSPAN.
Hey Levi, are the CTAL and ETAL currently under a subsidance phase? since the ITCZ over there, has died down quite a bit, lately, any thoughts?
Wow, nice shift with the models.. Ya know what, it actually makes sense since Alex has been moving slow. Gotta go out now, bbl
1016. nash28
Quite a SWD shift in the models for 18z early on.
i will be watching this low.
No love for my chart eh?

Sigh...
Hello everybody,what is that big swirl to the East of South Florida is that the remanants of invest 94L?,or a upper level low trying to develop?,is moving very fast toward Florida straight west bound and picking up some clouds,any comments about this feature?.Thanks!!!
1020. RJT185
Quoting GlobalWarming:


Soon! Ese seria mi deseo.


...that's kinda morbid.
Good afternoon,

From everything Ive read including the good doc on here...... There is a lot of uncertainty..... If this happens or if this happens.... If it slows down it could upwell cooler water.... If it slows down would also mean that it has more time to turn more north and more time to intensify..... Whatever!!!!!!

From my eyes I can see that the low level circulation is spinning very nicely for just emerging from a land mass. Alex is over very warm water and creeping NW maybe 3 mph.... All I know is the longer it stays over that hot water the worse its going to be for someone....
1022. WAHA
Alex loooks pretty stationary to me.
Maybe it will only be a category 1 storm, because the longer Alex is over that one little area, the colder the waters, so unless it gets moving it won't be a category 2 storm. I sure hope for whichever scenario kills the least amount of people.
1023. Levi32
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Hey Levi, are the CTAL and ETAL currently under a subsidance phase? since the ITCZ over there, has died down quite a bit, lately, any thoughts?


They are under a mostly downward MJO phase yes. That will be switching back to an upward motion phase soon.
East Texas Aggie...LOVE the chart...funny stuff!
1025. LaCoast
Did any of the EXPERTS predict that Alex would go stationary?
1026. nash28
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody,what is that big swirl to the East of South Florida is that the remanants of invest 94L?,or a upper level low trying to develop?,is moving very fast toward Florida straight west bound and picking up some clouds,any comments about this feature?.Thanks!!!


ULL.
1027. CCkid00
haven't been on here since last night. seems everything is pointing to N Mexico/S Texas. are they more sure of this track than they were last night....or is it really still a guessing game. anyone know who STILLWAITING is? he has a blog and his forecast is between Houston and SW La. is that crazy or is it a reliable possibility? live near Baton Rouge and just wondering what the heck this thing is gonna do and if people in here are in agreement with the NHC forecast track.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody,what is that big swirl to the East of South Florida is that the remanants of invest 94L?,or a upper level low trying to develop?,is moving very fast toward Florida straight west bound and picking up some clouds,any comments about this feature?.Thanks!!!


I won't develop. The east coast of Florida isn't at risk for a hit till late July/early August.
Quoting Floodman:


Anyone want to know about Pat's activities post-Katrina needs to WUMail me; I can give you a fair idea of what he did...Pat is not one to blow his own horn but his activities post-Katrina were heroic, to say the very least.

What any of us in the NOLA area saw and dealt with post Katrina is more than most of you folks would beleive or are capable of comprehending and i don;t mean that as a put down...it's just that it would be hard to beleive what happened to a major US city. You can say you saw it on the news, but if you weren't there all you really saw was a made for TV movie by comparison

Enough about that; I just felt I needed to say something about my friend Pat


And that makes it ok to question others experiences how??
Quoting muddertracker:
East Texas Aggie...LOVE the chart...funny stuff!


Thank you! Took me a whole 5 minutes in photoshop.
1031. GBguy88
Quoting sporteguy03:


I just visited New Orleans too. People there take so much pride in their city, on every sidewalk I saw people out front cleaning, plus they have an amazing WW2 museum that is worth every dollar of the $23. Everyone was friendly and helpful I met.


My favorite was standing on the levee at the edge of Algiers point and staring at the skyline from across the river, with the faint sound of music in the distance and the smell of Cajun food tickling my nostrils. Just had a feel about it that was hard to leave behind.
1032. NRAamy
hey Nash!!!!!

:)
thanks! are you anticipating mcuh activity, for, let's say, teh first two weeks of july, or so?
1034. Daveg

So, I'm a long way from understanding this, so please forgive me.

With the models bouncing from the north, back to the west, back to the north, back to the west.... does that mean too many things are in play at the moment due to its speed, and anywhere from northern Mexico to say Corpus could take the hit?
1035. nash28
Amy sweetie!!!

How are ya?
So the models have shifted south?
Quoting Patrap:

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Early Model Wind Forecasts



With those dynamic models, I would say we(LA) still have a SMALL chance. I haven't put my guard now anymore than before cause this storm is tricking EVERYONE!
Quoting EasttexasAggie:


Made this for a joke status on my facebook. Thought I would share.


Made me laugh out loud. His reputation more than proceeds himself. Good stuff -
To all that tell the poor that it is bad choices that make them vulnerable to being unprepared for a storm try doing something positive. Teach those that do not know how to manage money to manage their money. I am quite sure they are well aware of the situation but are totaly clueless of how to implement a plan to get out of poverty. Now I am not oblivious to the fact that some really do not care about their personal situation but for the most part the poor are good people.
Trying to explain how people act by using your own experience with people is like trying to explain global climatolgy from your local weather.
1040. NRAamy
I'm good! I've missed you, man!
1041. WAHA
Quoting LaCoast:
Did any of the EXPERTS predict that Alex would go stationary?

I don't think so. I'm the only one as I know of to predict that.
Models are gonna shift back and forth, they dont have a handle on this storm, and never have
Quoting duajones78413:
So the models have shifted south?
Yes they did looks like mexico with the 12z suite with some going to brownsville.
Quoting hideawaygulf:
Hey there...what's the difference between the computer models posted on the site here and the ensemble models? (sorry if this is a "novice" question - just haven't been able to figure that one out!)


Think of it this way. Most of the "dynamical models" you see are like a soloist. 1 person, one voice, one sound.

The ensembles are the sound you get out of a choir. Each choir member is a little different, and when your hear the choir you are hearing the "average" sound of the choir.

Ensembles are actually multiple runs of slighly different dynamical models and then the results are blended together. The idea is that if enemble members are quite different, individually, the atmosphere lacks predictabilty at the time that model is run. If the ensembles generally "agree" on a solution, the atmosphere may be more predictable, and one can have more confidence in a forecast.
1045. swlavp
Quoting neonlazer:


With those dynamic models, I would say we(LA) still have a SMALL chance. I haven't put my guard now anymore than before cause this storm is tricking EVERYONE!
Im in SWLA...I never put my guard down!!!LOL
1046. nash28
Just ducky Amy. At work, and trying NOT to work:-)

jk.
1047. Patrap
I have a suspicion that the Older spent CoC will Lose out to a More Northern one trying to Dominate below the Northern Convective Blow up..

Or above the Older one spinning out.



Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Quoting AustinTXWeather:


Made me laugh out loud. His reputation more than proceeds himself. Good stuff -



Ah! Nice to find a horn i can like ;)
997. :D awesome!
Don't think it's stationary. Just moving very slowly. Movement appears, at least per MIMIC, to be North, with either a wobble NNW or possibly changing to NNW (remains to be seen..more frames needed)

Link
1051. USSINS
Quoting Patrap:
I have a suspicion that the Older spent CoC will Lose out to a More Northern one trying to Dominate below the Northern Convective Blow up..

Or above the Older one spinning out.



Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop



Agreed. Been thinking that most of the morning. Glad you said it.
1052. Levi32
The COC won't relocate anywhere unless it really weakens, and right now it's still a 990mb center, holding steady in intensity according to last recon fix. It's so well-defined now that any relocation would only be possible if the storm starts to completely fall apart, which is not happening right now.
Quoting pcbsmokey:
Don't think it's stationary. Just moving very slowly. Movement appears, at least per MIMIC, to be North, with either a wobble NNW or possibly changing to NNW (remains to be seen..more frames needed)

Link
I agree just moving ver very slowly to the nnw
Any Jim Cantore sightings yet? MOdels are all find and good but when Jim shows up on a beach near you.. you know it is gonna get a little windy..LOL
1055. nash28
Quoting Patrap:
I have a suspicion that the Older spent CoC will Lose out to a More Northern one trying to Dominate below the Northern Convective Blow up..

Or above the Older one spinning out.



Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop



Well Pat... If that were to pan out, that would certainly add some "caca" to the models Corn Flakes. Wouldn't you agree?
1056. whs2012
All the models are bringing alex to mexico again? Texas is in the clear?
Darby has just been completely absorbed by Alex.

Death of Darby
Quoting Levi32:
The COC won't relocate anywhere unless it really weakens, and right now it's still a 990mb center, holding steady in intensity according to last recon fix. It's so well-defined now that any relocation would only be possible if the storm starts to completely fall apart, which is not happening right now.


Shear is supposed to relax within the next 12-15 hrs as well.
1059. LaCoast
Quoting WAHA:

I don't think so. I'm the only one as I know of to predict that.

I was actually being sarcastic. As for predictions I am sure at least 20 other bloggers predicted it at some point since there are at least 100 predictions per hour on this blog. But I did see someone who said that NOONe has any idea where Alex is heading. That one I can agree with.
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
To all that tell the poor that it is bad choices that make them vulnerable to being unprepared for a storm try doing something positive. Teach those that do not know how to manage money to manage their money. I am quite sure they are well aware of the situation but are totaly clueless of how to implement a plan to get out of poverty. Now I am not oblivious to the fact that some really do not care about their personal situation but for the most part the poor are good people.
Trying to explain how people act by using your own experience with people is like trying to explain global climatolgy from your local weather.


I do that all the time. I work in wealth management, and my average client has a net worth over $10 million, some count their worth in the billions. I volunteer my time and help the working poor learn how to budget and live within their means. It's tough. Many people don't understand that just because you can charge something, doesn't mean you can afford it.
1062. NRAamy
Well Pat... If that were to pan out, that would certainly add some "caca" to the models Corn Flakes. Wouldn't you agree?

and that is exactly why I have missed you, Nash!!!!!!!

:)
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
To all that tell the poor that it is bad choices that make them vulnerable to being unprepared for a storm try doing something positive. Teach those that do not know how to manage money to manage their money. I am quite sure they are well aware of the situation but are totaly clueless of how to implement a plan to get out of poverty. Now I am not oblivious to the fact that some really do not care about their personal situation but for the most part the poor are good people.
Trying to explain how people act by using your own experience with people is like trying to explain global climatolgy from your local weather.


well said. thank you.
Sorry for the typos... my 2 year old would not sit still while on my lap. I am training him right, he likes the photos.
1065. Levi32
12z UKMET...right up the Rio Grande, farthest north the UKMET has gone yet.

Quoting ElConando:


I won't develop. The east coast of Florida isn't at risk for a hit till late July/early August.
Thank you for your answer,do you think that even if this feauture don't develop it will continue on a west track probably enhancing our rain chances that we badly!!!!need here in the the South East coast.
1067. Patrap
Quoting nash28:


Well Pat... If that were to pan out, that would certainly add some "caca" to the models Corn Flakes. Wouldn't you agree?


This one has days to go before it shakes out Im betting nash.

That G-4 Flight tonight and all them sondes dropped will help with the Solution come tomorrow afternoon.

And the Coc will have shaken out by then,,hopefully and we all can get a better track
1068. nash28
I aim to please Amy:-)
Quoting whs2012:
All the models are bringing alex to mexico again? Texas is in the clear?
South texas is certainly not out of the clear yet as the models could easily go back north.
Alex is a killer and here is its victim.

Darby's remains.
Quoting nolesjeff:


And that makes it ok to question others experiences how??
There are 2 certainties on this blog: 1. Mr. Pearson is NEVER wrong...even when he is. 2. Don't get into a one on one with him or you'll eventually end up banned (CycloneOz).
1072. nash28
Just talked to LRandyB. He was saying G-IV is not scheduled until 7/1. I was wondering when we were gonna get the upper air synoptics out there.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Any Jim Cantore sightings yet? MOdels are all find and good but when Jim shows up on a beach near you.. you know it is gonna get a little windy..LOL


Jim Cantorie is the storm shield and you want him to show up in your city cause you then know the storm will be deflected east or west of you . Jim has had one cane in his long career at TWC
Quoting Patrap:
I have a suspicion that the Older spent CoC will Lose out to a More Northern one trying to Dominate below the Northern Convective Blow up..

Or above the Older one spinning out.


And that will be at least the second time he has done that trick so far.
1075. SeALWx
Quoting whs2012:
All the models are bringing alex to mexico again? Texas is in the clear?

Be careful with the interpolated models!!!!

Generally, they are made by taking the previous full run(0z or 12z)and then adjusting the track based on where the center is and was modeled to be. The move south of the tracks is mostly because Alex is moving slower than the models predicted, not because the forecast has 'changed' appreciably.
1076. scott39
Quoting whs2012:
All the models are bringing alex to mexico again? Texas is in the clear?
Texas is not in the clear. Watch the cone, not just the models. Alex looks like hes fixing to take off soon!IMO
Quoting nash28:


Well Pat... If that were to pan out, that would certainly add some "caca" to the models Corn Flakes. Wouldn't you agree?


I thought of two pictures to post to that but I'd rather not make a 24 hour joke.
1078. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
I have a suspicion that the Older spent CoC will Lose out to a More Northern one trying to Dominate below the Northern Convective Blow up..

Or above the Older one spinning out.



Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

I saw that earlier Pat but didn't say anything cause last time I predicted a change I got blasted by several highschoolers on here (even though I was right). So I keep my mouth closed and read the drama.
1080. Daveg

So, I would assume with the models bouncing north and south, and north and south. That anyone in northern Mexico and southern Texas should stay tuned, correct?

(noob here) :-)
As of right now, TX/MX border is target area, whether its north or south of that will be when the G4 flys like Pat said
1082. Patrap
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
Where are all the regulars that use to be on here???????


hello stormw

hello patrap

hello stormjunkie
Levi, did the latest run of GFS track farther south? Been working and haven't been able to check things out until now.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Any Jim Cantore sightings yet? MOdels are all find and good but when Jim shows up on a beach near you.. you know it is gonna get a little windy..LOL

Jim Cantore tweeted this morning that he was on his way to Texas, with a stop in Venice, LA.
Quoting SeALWx:

Be careful with the interpolated models!!!!

Generally, they are made by taking the previous full run(0z or 12z)and then adjusting the track based on where the center is and was modeled to be. The move south of the tracks is mostly because Alex is moving slower than the models predicted, not because the forecast has 'changed' appreciably.


what time is the next full run?
1087. whs2012
Quoting SeALWx:

Be careful with the interpolated models!!!!

Generally, they are made by taking the previous full run(0z or 12z)and then adjusting the track based on where the center is and was modeled to be. The move south of the tracks is mostly because Alex is moving slower than the models predicted, not because the forecast has 'changed' appreciably.
Quoting scott39:
Texas is not in the clear. Watch the cone, not just the models. Alex looks like hes fixing to take off soon!IMO



Ok, Thanks!
PATRAP,

You have W.U. email.

Dave
1089. WAHA
Quoting LaCoast:

I was actually being sarcastic. As for predictions I am sure at least 20 other bloggers predicted it at some point since there are at least 100 predictions per hour on this blog. But I did see someone who said that NOONe has any idea where Alex is heading. That one I can agree with.

I have an idea. Update.
1090. Levi32
12z Canadian ensemble mean is a little north of the operational run, which took it into northern Mexico this morning. The ensemble mean is more of a Texas problem....the red numbers are low centers on the ensemble members, and you can see them clustering off the SE TX coast.

12z Canadian Ensembles mean MSLP 60 hours:

1091. nash28
Hey FSU.

I'm here, for now... Braving it until someone or a gaggle of folks make my head explode. So far, head is still here:-)

How are you?
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
Where are all the regulars that use to be on here???????


hello stormw

hello patrap

hello stormjunkie


Trying to keep pace with the blog!
1093. Levi32
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Levi, did the latest run of GFS track farther south? Been working and haven't been able to check things out until now.


12z GFS went into Corpus Christi. The GFS parallel site is having issues so I haven't seen the 12z run there yet.
From looking at visible it almost appears it is creeping NNE/NE..abit slow as pie..probably just a wobble.
Any eastcasters on here? I wouldn't say it's got 'Tampa' written all over it, but . . .
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Any Jim Cantore sightings yet? MOdels are all find and good but when Jim shows up on a beach near you.. you know it is gonna get a little windy..LOL

Jim is in Venice, LA.
Quoting Levi32:


12z GFS went into Corpus Christi. The GFS parallel site is having issues so I haven't seen the 12z run there yet.


Is GFS parallel the new GFS?
Quoting neonlazer:
From looking at visible it almost appears it is creeping NNE/NE..abit slow as pie..probably just a wobble.
I see a continued north to nnw motion still
1099. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Is GFS parallel the new GFS?


Yeah, the one that will be replacing our current GFS soon.
Quoting Patrap:
I have a suspicion that the Older spent CoC will Lose out to a More Northern one trying to Dominate below the Northern Convective Blow up..

Or above the Older one spinning out.



Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

i asked the question of Alex relocating as i thought i saw the same thing early this morning, but got no real response. i think the only response i got was someone told me that nne is impossible. i thought it would take a nne turn because i thought it was relocating to the north and slightly east of the coc. that was about 2 or 3 this morning. i think this storm may just die out, but it also may not go anywhere near where people think. alex is tricky and the models are doing what they do best and that is try to predict the unpredictable. i say go with what you see, not statistics.:)
1101. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
The COC won't relocate anywhere unless it really weakens, and right now it's still a 990mb center, holding steady in intensity according to last recon fix. It's so well-defined now that any relocation would only be possible if the storm starts to completely fall apart, which is not happening right now.
Levi, wouldnt Alex have to start going NW right now for the NHC track to happen?
Quoting iluvjess:


I entered a lot of those homes immediately after search and rescue. Trust me, even the families in the eighth and ninth ward had the money to be prepared, they just chose to spend their money on other things, i.e. hug flat screen TVs, gaming systems, sterio systems, jewelry, etc. I was shocked at the personal items inside of some of these homes. It all boils down to decision making and managing money.


I really hate to say it and am in no way stereotyping. But I will agree that most of the "apartments" in the "projects" that I entered in the weeks post-Katrina did indeed have minimal furniture but, yes, always the big flat-screen TV with all the electronic accessories. Not necessarily the single-family homes, however. Sad commentary.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Is GFS parallel the new GFS?
Yes that is going to replace the operational one in july
City of Corpus Christi is holding emergency preparedness press conference for city and Nueces county and Padre and Mustang Island now.
Thanks.
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
Where are all the regulars that use to be on here???????


hello stormw

hello patrap

hello stormjunkie


They had to end early retirement and get jobs....or their mother kicked em out of the house .
1107. angiest
Quoting SeALWx:

Be careful with the interpolated models!!!!

Generally, they are made by taking the previous full run(0z or 12z)and then adjusting the track based on where the center is and was modeled to be. The move south of the tracks is mostly because Alex is moving slower than the models predicted, not because the forecast has 'changed' appreciably.


Something does smell very fishy with this, especially the dramatic shift in the GFS. Only UKMET and HWRF look reasonable to me at this point. We need some environmental data soon.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
There are 2 certainties on this blog: 1. Mr. Pearson is NEVER wrong...even when he is. 2. Don't get into a one on one with him or you'll eventually end up banned (CycloneOz).


Been on for 5 years, i know very well
1109. NRAamy
TT's crazy monkey is back!

:)
Still Drifting NNW.
1111. LaCoast
Quoting msgambler:
I saw that earlier Pat but didn't say anything cause last time I predicted a change I got blasted by several highschoolers on here (even though I was right). So I keep my mouth closed and read the drama.

Obviously something unexpected is happening. The question is will it change the forecasted track?
Quoting cctexgal:
City of Corpus Christi is holding emergency preparedness press conference for city and Nueces county and Padre and Mustang Island now.
Good they need to
Quoting Levi32:


12z GFS went into Corpus Christi. The GFS parallel site is having issues so I haven't seen the 12z run there yet.
Link please. Not on home computer.
levi, is the latest ecm run showing anything else coming into the picture after alex?
The GFDL 12z,develops a cyclone right on the South west coast of Florida,few minutes ago before checking the models, I ask about that upper level low moving toward South East Florida,this may develop right after crossing South Florida,look at the GFDL 12z model.
que bola, amy? :).
1117. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Levi, wouldnt Alex have to start going NW right now for the NHC track to happen?


Yeah it would have to speed up. It keeps moving slower than forecast.
Quoting ElConando:
Still Drifting NNW.
I agree drifting very very slowly but still a definite nnw movement
Quoting nolesjeff:


Been on for 5 years, i know very well
LOL, just trying to be helpful...
Im hanging in here.... Have been so busy with a new career change and everything that goes with it....

It seems just like yesterday when I went to marco island for wilma and had everyones help monitoring the situation. Now years later......

Time sure does fly.... Hope everyone is doing well!
Quoting Hurricane1956:
The GFDL 12z,develops a cyclone right on the South west coast of Florida,few minutes ago before checking the models, I ask about that upper level low moving toward South East Florida,this may develop right after crossing South Florida,look at the GFDL 12z model.


Its not out of realm of possibility.
Quoting Patrap:
I have a suspicion that the Older spent CoC will Lose out to a More Northern one trying to Dominate below the Northern Convective Blow up..

Or above the Older one spinning out.



Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


i asked the question of Alex relocating as i thought i saw the same thing early this morning, but got no real response. i think the only response i got was someone told me that nne is impossible. i thought it would take a nne turn because i thought it was relocating to the north and slightly east of the coc. that was about 2 or 3 this morning. i think this storm may just die out, but it also may not go anywhere near where people think. alex is tricky and the models are doing what they do best and that is try to predict the unpredictable. i say go with what you see, not statistics.:)
1124. Levi32
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Link please. Not on home computer.


Actually sorry my bad I was looking at the 6z run for some reason. 12z has it just south of the TX/MX border.

12z GFS

1125. JRRP
1126. angiest
Quoting SeALWx:

Be careful with the interpolated models!!!!

Generally, they are made by taking the previous full run(0z or 12z)and then adjusting the track based on where the center is and was modeled to be. The move south of the tracks is mostly because Alex is moving slower than the models predicted, not because the forecast has 'changed' appreciably.

-----------------------

I take that as all of the variables were the same but using the new starting location?
Strange how some on this thing concoct sweeping conspiracy theories, reprimanding the NHC's expertise with their passing ideas. Wishcasters. Everywhere.
Alex is stuck in the mud peeling out trying to break off the Yucatan, he's about free now and is going to be blowing up at some point
1129. scott39
Its not like Alex hasnt relocated its COC before. Not saying it is now, but it has happened how many times since this journey with Alex began?
Alex







Celia





Darby



Cityof Corpus and Port Aransas are readying due to the fact that water will be up to the dunes by tomorrow night and flood low lying roads by tomorrow and we need to get visitors off those islands and low lying areas. They are needing to get all the piers and facilities shut down. The 211 system will be up and running by tonight if needed.
If he blows up and gets big, thing is gonna go little more north, have to have a pretty good ridge to push him back westward
senior chief, god bless you for all that you do for us on here. you are tireless, sir.
1134. SeALWx
Quoting angiest:
Quoting SeALWx:

Be careful with the interpolated models!!!!

Generally, they are made by taking the previous full run(0z or 12z)and then adjusting the track based on where the center is and was modeled to be. The move south of the tracks is mostly because Alex is moving slower than the models predicted, not because the forecast has 'changed' appreciably.

-----------------------

I take that as all of the variables were the same but using the new starting location?


Pretty much, yes. And the interpolated runs are the 6z and 18z ones. The 0z and 12z will be the full suite.
1135. nash28
Quoting 92Andrew:
Strange how some on this thing concoct sweeping conspiracy theories, reprimanding the NHC's expertise with their passing ideas. Wishcasters. Everywhere.


If Alex could sing, this would be coming out of his "mouth."

"Wishcasters to the left of me.
Eastcasters to the right.
Here I am, stuck in weak steering flow too."
Quoting JRRP:
A frind had told me that. That's why I asked. Isn't GFS moving S and ECMWF moving N on their tracks? I guess they will meet in the middle, wherever that is. Thanks
jrpr and jrpr2, plz post the entire run, thanks.
1138. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Its not like Alex hasnt relocated its COC before. Not saying it is now, but it has happened how many times since this journey with Alex began?


It actually never really did. It fussed around a little while organizing north of Honduras, but no true significant relocations, which only happen in poorly-defined and non-vertically stacked systems.
1139. Crawls
Quoting LaCoast:

Obviously something unexpected is happening. The question is will it change the forecasted track?


ALEX = Unexpected
Don't think anything with him would surprise me anymore!
1140. OUSHAWN
I would be cautious at paying too much attention to any models right now due to Alex's desire to just want to pretty much park himself in and around the same area. As we have seen before, especially in the last couple of years, models can be proven wrong. Best suggestion is just stay on top of what things and wait to see what Alex's next move is...because too be honest I don't think any of us really know what that will be.
1047:

Patrap, that isn't a circulation center. The storms are flaring up very tall there, but analysis in all channels shows a normal feeder band being pulled into Alex' core.

Low Level


RGB

Shortwave

Visible

There is no "local" cyclonic motion in that patch of storms. There is actually clockwise spin caused by the fact that the inner side of the feeder bands is moving faster than the outer side, since it is closest to the center.

Note that visible continues to make it evident that Alex is intensifying further still. The feeder bands are beginning to close in all the "relatively dry" areas near the center as overall shear is diminishing slowly.

Elsewhere, the appearance of "competing circulations" is an illusion caused by shearing action.

The high thunderstorms in the feeder band are converging with the CoC as expected.
Quoting nolesjeff:


And that makes it ok to question others experiences how??


Research on eye witness report reliability is one of the more interesting topics out there. Have done a bit if reading on it in relation to my studies in psychology (M. Ed). Prior life experiences and biases have an incredable impact on what id intrupreted as important and reported.

I wasn't in or close to NOL but from my limited experiance in post disaster response I guess mine must more closely resemble Pat's than the other posts. Lol
I guess mine most closely resemble Pat's. LOL
Quoting animalrsq:


I really hate to say it and am in no way stereotyping. But I will agree that most of the "apartments" in the "projects" that I entered in the weeks post-Katrina did indeed have minimal furniture but, yes, always the big flat-screen TV with all the electronic accessories. Not necessarily the single-family homes, however. Sad commentary.


I apologize. I was behind on the blog and jumped in on this. Not weather-related. Shouldn't have posted it.
Nice link

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic
Levi or Storm....NOLA and S. MS in the clear ya think??
1146. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


It actually never really did. It fussed around a little while organizing north of Honduras, but no true significant relocations, which only happen in poorly-defined and non-vertically stacked systems.
See this is what happens when i have no idea what im talking about! LOL
Starting to fire convection over the COC constantly. Will start seeing it come back very soon. Also moistening the air around the COC helping the coc refire.

1149. Levi32
Quoting Tropicaddict:
Levi or Storm....NOLA and S. MS in the clear ya think??


Yes.
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting animalrsq:


I apologize. I was behind on the blog and jumped in on this. Not weather-related. Shouldn't have posted it.


no worries,some of us got a little off topic earlier but we have made a course correction and are back on target again :o)<
Quoting SeALWx:


Pretty much, yes. And the interpolated runs are the 6z and 18z ones. The 0z and 12z will be the full suite.


All model cycles have interpolated versions. The SFWMD site displays the non-interpolated ones.
Quoting Tropicaddict:
Levi or Storm....NOLA and S. MS in the clear ya think??
I don't think anyone should ignore this storm, it has done too many unexpected things. For all we know it might trick us again and going in some unexpected direction.
1154. NRAamy
1133. GlobalWarming 12:12 PM PDT on June 28, 2010
senior chief, god bless you for all that you do for us on here. you are tireless, sir.


don't you mean bud sir?



GFS trying to develop the wave coming off now. As a fish
the slower alex goes, the more time the high will have to build north of Alex... THAT'S why the models have been shifting back towards Mexico Border...

I'm feeling better about this thing... Corpus Christi and South still needs to watch ALEX...
1157. Mia337
Quoting StormW:


If nothing has changed, yes.


At what point would you say SWLA is in the clear?
Quoting neonlazer:
I don't think anyone should ignore this storm, it has done too many unexpected things. For all we know it might trick us again and going in some unexpected direction.


Pretty normal if you ask me, they all act differently with different conditions in place.
patrap obviously sees what i saw last night. i have been on here for a while now and as long as i've been here patrap has been here. and as far as i know and saw for myself he is pretty good at this weather thing. i on the other hand am not.:) all i know how to do is look at the loops and decide for myself what i think is happening. patrap,stormw,tampaspin,oz,and a few others have been very good with info and prediction on here for years now. point- i never dismiss anything they say.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
The GFDL 12z,develops a cyclone right on the South west coast of Florida,few minutes ago before checking the models, I ask about that upper level low moving toward South East Florida,this may develop right after crossing South Florida,look at the GFDL 12z model.


I don't have a trained eye but the visible Satellite on the ULL east of the Bahamas appears that some circulation is occuring at lower levels. Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
Quoting NRAamy:
1133. GlobalWarming 12:12 PM PDT on June 28, 2010
senior chief, god bless you for all that you do for us on here. you are tireless, sir.


don't you mean bud sir?




LOL
NolesJeff, I never said that anyone's experiences were less relevant...what I was trying to get across (and apparently I did't communicate it that well) was that you can't possibly get the full understanding of NOLA and the area post K by watching the news feeds.

As for any of these posts being off topic, these storms aren't just about 140mph winds and 18' storm surge, they are also very much about the impact on the people that live in the areas effected; if you'd like to take this discussion to WUMail I will be happy to continue this there
1163. Daveg
So, I would assume with the models bouncing north and south, and north and south. That anyone in northern Mexico and southern Texas should stay tuned, correct?

And is it due to the uncertainty in Alex's speed?

(noob here, trying to learn) :-)
Quoting nash28:


If Alex could sing, this would be coming out of his "mouth."

"Wishcasters to the left of me.
Eastcasters to the right.
Here I am, stuck in weak steering flow too."

priceless Nash :)
1166. WAHA

I really think something just broke off Alex. And according to the 850 millibar vorticity, it's rotating.
Ok...... Hey you can still see part of my video on Stormjunkie.com.... Its funny but awesome to have been there....

I will be back later....... peace
New Blog is up!
Quoting StormW:
Just a quick look at RGB loop...center has not relocated...in fact, shear has dropped about 5 kts from 20-15, and the convection is coming back over the center. Also appears to be drifting about 355-000, on close up shot


Wonder when it will get moving again.
Quoting NRAamy:
1133. GlobalWarming 12:12 PM PDT on June 28, 2010
senior chief, god bless you for all that you do for us on here. you are tireless, sir.


don't you mean bud sir?




you called?
Quoting StormW:


Now. If nothing chnages


YEAH!!!! {{hug}}
1173. Mia337
Thanks Storm
1174. whs2012
Quoting StormW:


Now.


So if SWLA is in the clear, is Houston/Galveston in the clear too?
Quoting Ameister12:

Jim is in Venice, LA.


TWC probably put him in the wrong spot, as they thought it would hit LA, what a big joke TWC is, can't track hurricanes correctly.
1176. NRAamy
1171. GoodOleBudSir 12:22 PM PDT on June 28, 2010
Quoting NRAamy:
1133. GlobalWarming 12:12 PM PDT on June 28, 2010
senior chief, god bless you for all that you do for us on here. you are tireless, sir.

don't you mean bud sir?





you called?




hahahahahahahahaha!

:)
Quoting whs2012:


So if SWLA is in the clear, is Houston/Galveston in the clear too?


Not quite, but there is a low chance that it will hit houston, Galveston, ehh, well, we will just have to wait and see.
Quoting winter123:

GFS trying to develop the wave coming off now. As a fish


Betcha that same trough that's trying to get Alex will get that one, or maybe the next trough in line on the west coast.
Quoting Mia337:


At what point would you say SWLA is in the clear?


never, until its made landfall and dissipates. There unpredictable.
Quoting nash28:


If Alex could sing, this would be coming out of his "mouth."

"Wishcasters to the left of me.
Eastcasters to the right.
Here I am, stuck in weak steering flow too."


LMAO
I do have to say.. the moisture form Alex will stream into Texas from the Rio Grande to San Antonio.. and perhaps more into central and east Texas around Dallas to Texarkana later on, flooding will be a Big issue this week for Texas... You guys need to prep inland as well as coastal... Combined with a slow moving front/boundary over Texas, the rain will be unforgiving in the flood alley of the US....
1182. whs2012
Quoting tropicfreak:


Not quite, but there is a low chance that it will hit houston, Galveston, ehh, well, we will just have to wait and see.


If it hit around Corpus, would that still be a bad situation for us?
Quoting whs2012:


If it hit around Corpus, would that still be a bad situation for us?


Yes it would, refer to post 1181.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Jim Cantorie is the storm shield and you want him to show up in your city cause you then know the storm will be deflected east or west of you . Jim has had one cane in his long career at TWC


Is he the shield or one damn good met who can figure out exactly where the storm wouldn't go but there is enough wind and rain to make dramatic video?

That's where I'd want to be if I had his job. Lol
1186. whs2012
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yes it would, refer to post 1181.



Oh ok. Hopefully it goes to Mexico then! lol
Quoting StormTop5000:
I do have to say.. the moisture form Alex will stream into Texas from the Rio Grande to San Antonio.. and perhaps more into central and east Texas around Dallas to Texarkana later on, flooding will be a Big issue this week for Texas... You guys need to prep inland as well as coastal... Combined with a slow moving front/boundary over Texas, the rain will be unforgiving in the flood alley of the US....


Hold on.... wait is this stormTOP???
Will be interesting over the next several hours and days to see if Alex can manage to pull in all the moisture it just consumed from Darby across the entire continent through Mexico and Central American, consolidating it into a Caribbean/gulf side feeder band.

Darby's Ghost
hello?????
1190. whs2012
Quoting tropicfreak:
hello?????


I think everyone left. lol
I just left South Padre and arrived inland about 60 miles. Folks on the island are moving at about half the sense of urgency as they did for Dolly a mere 2 years ago.

Cameron County Judge (Brownsville) said on the radio this morning that they are monitoring this storm but for citizens to not panic because Alex doesn't pose near the threat that Dolly did in 2008 (? huh?)

All of South Texas and Northern Mexico experienced their wettest Spring in modern history....some places as much as 30 inches of precip since March. A slow heavy rain will absolutely devastate this area 10X worse than Dolly did following a 12-15 month drought.
Truly epic storm out there folks.

If it looks like it's coming your way, get ready to run is all I got to say.

It's gotta be deepening in some way or another to keep pulling in the entire EPAC like that.

It's starting to make Ike look average.
1193. whs2012
Quoting TexasRGV:
I just left South Padre and arrived inland about 60 miles. Folks on the island are moving at about half the sense of urgency as they did for Dolly a mere 2 years ago.

Cameron County Judge (Brownsville) said on the radio this morning that they are monitoring this storm but for citizens to not panic because Alex doesn't pose near the threat that Dolly did in 2008 (? huh?)

All of South Texas and Northern Mexico experienced their wettest Spring in modern history....some places as much as 30 inches of precip since March. A slow heavy rain will absolutely devastate this area 10X worse than Dolly did following a 12-15 month drought.



Yeah, it seems like everyone is underestimating this storm. The meteorologist here in the Houston/Galveston area say maybe a few things about Alex and act like it is no big deal. I remember perfectly, the meteorologist for Fox during Ike was like, "Ike, poses no threat to us. It's going to the mexico/brownsville area."

I thought he would've learned from that.
wow, 5 minutes between post 1187 and 1188, thats a rarity considering this is masters blog and theres a TS soon to be hurricane threatening the US
Quoting RecordSeason:
Truly epic storm out there folks.

If it looks like it's coming your way, get ready to run is all I got to say.

It's gotta be deepening in some way or another to keep pulling in the entire EPAC like that.

It's starting to make Ike look average.


Epic storm, lol thats funny, its a decend sized tropical storm, watch as it spins up it will also tighten up and wont sprawl so far out.
1196. fsumet
The thing that bothers me about the model runs is looking at historical tracks like Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Bret in 1999, the ridge was much stronger than the one that is forecast. Plus those ridges didn't move like this one is going to. The models seem to keep this storm much weaker than it probably will be and as a much smaller storm. Is it going to turn as much as the models want, due west from a ridge in the central plains? I don't think so, but I guess we will see.
1197. whs2012
Quoting StormChaser81:


Epic storm, lol thats funny, its a decend sized tropical storm, watch as it spins up it will also tighten up and wont sprawl so far out.


I think that Alex is about the same size as Ike...or will be once it can tighten itself up.
1198. whs2012
Quoting fsumet:
The thing that bothers me about the model runs is looking at historical tracks like Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Bret in 1999, the ridge was much stronger than the one that is forecast. Plus those ridges didn't move like this one is going to. The models seem to keep this storm much weaker than it probably will be and as a much smaller storm. Is it going to turn as much as the models want, due west from a ridge in the central plains? I don't think so, but I guess we will see.


This storm is unpredictable, and I think you are probably right...
wow...nothing like a jfv/stormTOP sighting to clear out the blog! Remember: Have your trolls spayed or neutered!

the cloud pattern in the NE GOM is looking like a inverted trough of low pressure in the mid levels,I wonder if it could close off and work down to the surface???
Quoting whs2012:


I think that Alex is about the same size as Ike...or will be once it can tighten itself up.


Also when it tightens, those outflow boundaries to the north east will cut off and it will get smaller looking.
Is anyone else having trouble sizing the page to their screen?
Link

Link to local neighbourhood buoy 42005.
Steady tendency ...slowly dropping p and slowly rising wind.
Quoting reedzone:
Wow, nice shift with the models.. Ya know what, it actually makes sense since Alex has been moving slow. Gotta go out now, bbl


Hey Reed, nice FORECASTS you did! Thanks!
Most storms when in a weak stage tend to sprawl outwards when loosing its spinning motion (angular momentum). Basically its a spinning top winding down, and has to get going again to pull all of that moisture back into the system.
Why is everyone on this blog and not the more recent one?
Um Hellooooooooooooo



NEW BLOG!!!
1208. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting cg2916:
NEW BLOG!!!
LOL! Told ya.
1210. SeALWx
On second thought...
Everyone stay here,
the new blog is overrated!
1211. CJC111
Just a quick question for those in the know. Alex took a while trying to decide if it wanted to develop and has slowly wandered more than once. Is there reason to believe, whether it's MX or TX, that it will speed up once it gets a bit north? Because it's so slow and so big, the amount of rain could be large, widespread and devastating.
Spoke to CycloneOz just now. He's looking for a go / no-go for a Brownsville,TX landfall and storm chase deployment. He's got to leave soon if he's going. All advice and insight welcome either on here, my blog or via WUmail.

Also, any Brownsville residents please contact me via my blog or WUmail as I need some help from you.
Alex is very clearly developing an eyewall on the north side.
Quoting tropicfreak:


TWC probably put him in the wrong spot, as they thought it would hit LA, what a big joke TWC is, can't track hurricanes correctly.

he's there because of the effects this storm can have on the oild spill, not because they are expecting a direct hit. ;-)
1215. StormVV
Oops wrong blog