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Alex Slowly Gains Strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:35 AM GMT on June 29, 2010

Hello, it's Dr. Rob Carver substituting for Jeff on the late shift.

As of the 0100 EDT advisory, Alex is 475 miles SE of Brownsville TX moving NNW at 8 mph. The advisory wind speed is 65 mph with a minimum central pressure of 985 mb. The most recent vortex fix was at 1225EDT with an unchanged pressure reading. Alex is expected to take a turn to the NW and make landfall just south of Brownsville late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. The government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning from the mouth of the Rio Grande south to La Cruz. NHC has hoisted the hurricane warning flag from the Rio Grande north to Baffin Bay. A tropical storm warning extends from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor. Alex is expected to expand in size so it will be much larger than Hurricane Dolly, which was the last storm to affect the region in 2008.

Hurricane Local Statements are now being issued by the Brownsville and Corpus Christi NWS offices. These statements provide a detailed look at how Alex will affect the region and summarize how local emergency management is responding to the situation.

Alex has three different ways to negatively impact the Rio Grande Valley: storm surge, heavy rains, and strong winds.

Risk of Storm Surge
NHC is forecasting a storm surge of 3-5 feet along the coast north of where Alex makes landfall. The exact details of the surge's extent depend on where Alex makes landfall and how big it gets while it is over the open water. I've include a plot of the statistical storm surge forecast product. Unless Alex refuses to make it's left turn, I don't think there's a chance of storm surge north of Port O'Connor.

Plot of experimental storm surge forecast.

Threat from Rain
NHC thinks 5 to 10 inches of rain over southern Texas/northern Mexico is possible when Alex makes landfall. This is why the Brownsville office thinks the primary threat from Alex will be inland flooding in areas with poor drainage.

Alex has a history of producing torrential amounts of rain as shown by this estimate of rainfall during Alex's passage over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 27, 2010 using data from the Climate Prediction Center.

Threat from Wind
Alex is currently forecast to reach hurricane status. There will likely be hurricane force winds along the coast where Alex makes landfall. The current hurricane wind probabilities show that Brownsville has a 77% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds and a 18% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds. Corpus Christi has a 44 % chance of tropical storm winds and a 4% chance of hurricane force winds. There is also the possibility of tornadoes forming in outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall.

The Curious Incident of the Hurricane Dynamical Models
One thing that strikes me as odd about Alex is that neither the GFDL nor the HWRF have been intensifying the storm into a hurricane in the past few model runs. This is intriguing because Alex is already a strong tropical storm. It will bear watching to see if GFDL/HWRF continue this pattern for future storms.

Next Update
Jeff will post an entry sometime this morning, and I'll have another entry late Tuesday night.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Recon just found 982.5 mb in Alex.
Quoting extreme236:
Still not a hurricane yet

AL, 01, 2010062912, , BEST, 0, 225N, 927W, 60, 983, TS


Ofcourse its a hurricane.At least 80Mph winds.
They are lowering it down for the markets.
Quoting Patrap:
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast (using WW3)


Thanks Pat! That doesn't sit well for the oil clean up now does it. Yikes!
Quoting primadonnagirl:
i got all my batteries


But have you got all your marbles? jk
Convection really flaring in Alex atm.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so guys when is 95L coming I see that wave that is comming off africa is that the one or what


I've seen you ask this question several times. Were not psychic, so who knows when 95L is coming.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Convection really flaring in Alex atm.



Just waiting for an eye to become visible.
982mb now we are getting close to a strong cat 1 bordering on a cat 2..
514. jpsb
Quoting hurrkat05:
alex is on a steady nnw heading right now no nw moment at present..it continues to pick up speed though i say now nnw at 14mph..
nnw and gaining speed? Alex seems to like nnw.
1225 UTC showing the Depressed Center..

Quoting apocalyps:


Ofcourse its a hurricane.At least 80Mph winds.
They are lowering it down for the markets.


There are no 80 mph winds
There is no conspiracy.
This storm is not heading towards FL as a CAT5
That's just the way it is.
000
URNT15 KNHC 291332
AF306 0801A ALEX HDOB 30 20100629
132300 2221N 09245W 8426 01386 9866 +196 +190 224040 040 039 007 00
132330 2222N 09246W 8427 01376 9858 +197 +192 225039 041 041 006 00
132400 2223N 09248W 8433 01364 9845 +205 +194 228032 036 039 006 00
132430 2224N 09249W 8429 01363 9838 +206 +195 235023 027 035 004 03
132500 2226N 09250W 8432 01355 9833 +206 +197 235017 018 026 005 00
132530 2227N 09251W 8428 01356 9831 +203 +199 236011 013 022 004 00
132600 2228N 09252W 8433 01347 9827 +205 +200 263006 007 016 004 00
132630 2229N 09253W 8429 01349 9825 +202 +201 310005 006 018 004 00
132700 2231N 09255W 8426 01350 9825 +200 +200 015010 012 016 004 00
132730 2232N 09256W 8431 01348 9825 +205 +202 021017 019 020 004 03
132800 2232N 09257W 8424 01360 9829 +207 +202 013022 024 999 999 03
132830 2231N 09259W 8429 01359 9832 +208 +204 360025 026 999 999 03
132900 2229N 09258W 8428 01359 9831 +209 +207 349022 023 999 999 03
132930 2229N 09256W 8429 01354 9827 +206 +206 339016 018 014 005 03
133000 2230N 09255W 8434 01344 9826 +201 +201 346006 010 009 005 03
133030 2231N 09253W 8425 01350 9825 +201 +201 147002 005 017 004 00
133100 2231N 09252W 8432 01347 9826 +202 +202 153011 013 017 003 03
133130 2233N 09251W 8429 01353 9829 +200 +200 138017 018 999 999 03
133200 2234N 09252W 8430 01348 9826 +200 +200 115016 017 017 005 03
133230 2234N 09254W 8431 01344 9821 +206 +202 087014 015 019 004 00
$$
;
518. IKE
Quoting Dropsonde:
This thing once again looks pathetic on satellite. Every bit of progress that it appeared to make last night in filling in its circulation has been squandered, and even the huge dry slot hasn't been eliminated. I for one have had enough of this sad system. Ever since it was 93L, it steadfastly refused to take advantage of good conditions. Its most impressive moment was right as it was making landfall, for crying out loud. I have serious doubts that it will make second landfall AT ALL except as a disorganized blob. Alex has been all about persistence, and sustained intensification has not been part of that. Anyone who made a persistence forecast for Alex the past week would've done much better than model chasers.

At this point I don't care if it goes north, northwest, due west, or spins itself out in this same spot until all the fuel is gone (and if it doesn't get moving faster than a human being's jogging pace, that is what will happen). I'm just sick of it.



*heads to Wal-Mart pharmacy to pick up valium*
Quoting extreme236:
000
URNT15 KNHC 291332
AF306 0801A ALEX HDOB 30 20100629
132300 2221N 09245W 8426 01386 9866 +196 +190 224040 040 039 007 00
132330 2222N 09246W 8427 01376 9858 +197 +192 225039 041 041 006 00
132400 2223N 09248W 8433 01364 9845 +205 +194 228032 036 039 006 00
132430 2224N 09249W 8429 01363 9838 +206 +195 235023 027 035 004 03
132500 2226N 09250W 8432 01355 9833 +206 +197 235017 018 026 005 00
132530 2227N 09251W 8428 01356 9831 +203 +199 236011 013 022 004 00
132600 2228N 09252W 8433 01347 9827 +205 +200 263006 007 016 004 00
132630 2229N 09253W 8429 01349 9825 +202 +201 310005 006 018 004 00
132700 2231N 09255W 8426 01350 9825 +200 +200 015010 012 016 004 00
132730 2232N 09256W 8431 01348 9825 +205 +202 021017 019 020 004 03
132800 2232N 09257W 8424 01360 9829 +207 +202 013022 024 999 999 03
132830 2231N 09259W 8429 01359 9832 +208 +204 360025 026 999 999 03
132900 2229N 09258W 8428 01359 9831 +209 +207 349022 023 999 999 03
132930 2229N 09256W 8429 01354 9827 +206 +206 339016 018 014 005 03
133000 2230N 09255W 8434 01344 9826 +201 +201 346006 010 009 005 03
133030 2231N 09253W 8425 01350 9825 +201 +201 147002 005 017 004 00
133100 2231N 09252W 8432 01347 9826 +202 +202 153011 013 017 003 03
133130 2233N 09251W 8429 01353 9829 +200 +200 138017 018 999 999 03
133200 2234N 09252W 8430 01348 9826 +200 +200 115016 017 017 005 03
133230 2234N 09254W 8431 01344 9821 +206 +202 087014 015 019 004 00
$$
;


Down yet another millibar
29/18Z is the next forecast point, it's right on track and looks like it will be there before 18Z, maybe a couple hours. This could slide up the coast a bit more in response to the quicker forward motion but, nothing north of Brownsville, IMO.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


There are no 80 mph winds
There is no conspiracy.
This storm is not heading towards FL as a CAT5
That's just the way it is.


LOL..

the Pattern is not full

Tower pass approved Ghostrider..
So the farther north Alex goes, not only the more people he threatens, but also the more time he has to strengthen, is that correct?
Quoting dsenecal2009:


..........


Spot on! A human parasite is someone who thrives and profits from the misery and misfortune of others. There's nothing more refreshing than an insurance adjuster performing an adjustment on their own flattened home.
Quoting IKE:



*heads to Wal-Mart pharmacy to pick up valium*

share please
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon just found 982.5 mb in Alex.


OMG!!!
Quoting Dropsonde:
This thing once again looks pathetic on satellite. Every bit of progress that it appeared to make last night in filling in its circulation has been squandered, and even the huge dry slot hasn't been eliminated. I for one have had enough of this sad system. Ever since it was 93L, it steadfastly refused to take advantage of good conditions. Its most impressive moment was right as it was making landfall, for crying out loud. I have serious doubts that it will make second landfall AT ALL except as a disorganized blob. Alex has been all about persistence, and sustained intensification has not been part of that. Anyone who made a persistence forecast for Alex the past week would've done much better than model chasers.

At this point I don't care if it goes north, northwest, due west, or spins itself out in this same spot until all the fuel is gone (and if it doesn't get moving faster than a human being's jogging pace, that is what will happen). I'm just sick of it.


Do you feel better now?
IKE:

Do you honestly think there is any chance that this could come here?
Texas Lousiana land fall jmo
Good morning y'all. Well, Alex didn't explode last night and he's not moving NE...well..will wonders never cease..lol. He's still having trouble with his west side, huh?
Quoting IKE:



*heads to Wal-Mart pharmacy to pick up valium*


LOL...Ike, will you pick up some for me too?!?!?!
Quoting apocalyps:


Its happening already.
Everything points out to a CAT3-4 landfall between Texas and Louisiana

unlikely
looks like he is starting to get a good out flow. I think we will see when their is a few more visible frames.

ps good morning all
Quoting muddertracker:
Good morning y'all. Well, Alex didn't explode last night and he's not moving NE...well..will wonders never cease..lol. He's still having trouble with his west side, huh?


Ingested some dry air, currently firing off some strong convection over the COC so we'll see what happens. Alex will likely become a Hurricane today.
535. IKE
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
IKE:

Do you honestly think there is any chance that this could come here?


Squally weather...beyond that the chances look unlikely.

Trust the NHC. They've done everything they can to get the track right.

I'm no expert, but that's my opinion. Looks like a northern Mexico landfall is the most likely.
981.9 just reported.
Quoting btwntx08:

unlikely


Unlikely is that Alex suddenly should turn west without any reason.Just a few fairytailers at the NHC telling that story.
A NNE motion during a periode of 6-12 hours is more likely once Alex has become a strong CAT1
538. IKE
Quoting Tropicaddict:


LOL...Ike, will you pick up some for me too?!?!?!


LOL...share and share alike.
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:30Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 22.52N 92.88W
Splash Time: 13:32Z

Release Location: 22.52N 92.88W
Release Time: 13:30:40Z

Splash Location: 22.52N 92.89W
Splash Time: 13:31:38Z
When can we expect Jeff's new blog?
The NHC has been right on with this system. I do not understand why some people on here seem to think they can see something that the NHC doesnt. The NHC has a good fix on this system now and has it going in just south of Brownsville. So why in the world are people on here still saying its going to be a Tx/La storm. Are people just starved for attention
Quoting AllStar17:
981.9 just reported.


Cat 1 pressure, could also take a little while for the winds to catch up with the pressure decrease.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ingested some dry air, currently firing off some strong convection over the COC so we'll see what happens. Alex will likely become a Hurricane today.
Can't argue with that. I'm thinking strong Cat-1, possible 2, and I don't see him getting north of the mouth of the Rio..imo..you?
981.9 mb
(~ 29.00 inHg)
That dry slot is definitely stubborn. Still dealing with dry air intrusion it seems. May be why it's not intensifying more steadily.
546. IKE
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
The NHC has been right on with this system. I do not understand why some people on here seem to think they can see something that the NHC doesnt. The NHC has a good fix on this system now and has it going in just south of Brownsville. So why in the world are people on here still saying its going to be a Tx/La storm. Are people just starved for attention


I'm not sure a few would believe the NHC track when it was inland over Mexico.
Quoting muddertracker:
Can't argue with that. I'm thinking strong Cat-1, possible 2, and I don't see him getting north of the mouth of the Rio..imo..you?


Possibly, but a Texas landfall is certainly in the playing cards today.
i got all my bags pack, ready for the big one.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
981.9 mb
(~ 29.00 inHg)


Yes but are the winds following the pressure?
Quoting UpperLevelLOL:
So the farther north Alex goes, not only the more people he threatens, but also the more time he has to strengthen, is that correct?

North of Brownsville 60-80 miles would be better as far as missing most of the population. (But bad for anyone with a nice field of cotton.)

A near Brownsville hit is very bad because it will go right up the Rio Grande Valley, which is a very flat and fairly populated area. There will be very serious flooding with that scenario.
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
The NHC has been right on with this system. I do not understand why some people on here seem to think they can see something that the NHC doesnt. The NHC has a good fix on this system now and has it going in just south of Brownsville. So why in the world are people on here still saying its going to be a Tx/La storm. Are people just starved for attention


storms can't be trusted
Quoting UpperLevelLOL:


Yes but are the winds following the pressure?


Strongest they found in that set was 50 mph
Quoting apocalyps:


Its happening already.
Everything points out to a CAT3-4 landfall between Texas and Louisiana
Except what the experts are saying.
Quoting apocalyps:


Its happening already.
Everything points out to a CAT3-4 landfall between Texas and Louisiana


Am I the only one that finds this vaguely familiar?
Also whenever we see the lowest pressures it appears the winds drop off quickly to 18 knots.. once pressures rise it goes back up to Tropical Storm strength. Developing eye.
Wilma had 901 mb and it was only a Category 4 at that point. Felix had 929 mb at Category 5. The size of the storm and the surrounding environment mean a great deal, and this... thing... is not nearly as impressive as the central pressure in isolation would suggest. It had incredible convection right over the center, gray on AVN IR, last night, but it couldn't keep it! I think that the previous GFDL and HWRF had the correct idea, that Alex was simply never going to pull it all together. Let's be realistic and look at the history of it.
981mb is a cta 2 pressure not good
559. IKE
Looks to me like Alex is changing course and heading more NW or even bending toward WNW.
560. jpsb
Dropsonde, Alex took a long long time getting things together just before land fall in Belize. So it is not surprising at all that he is once again taking a long long time getting it all together again. He is an underachiever but he'll get there (cat 2+).
remember the days when we would just chart the lat/lon on a tracking chart from a weatherman on tv, then run when necessary? It was so less stressful....
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Possibly, but a Texas landfall is certainly in the playing cards today.


I am curious to see what the NHC does in response to the forward motion at the next advisory, I'm thinking a tad north.
Looks like it's moving right on tropical forecast points, which is NW or maybe slightly north of northwest.
Quoting hurrkat05:
981mb is a cta 2 pressure not good


Cat 2 pressure is usually between 965 and 980
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Spot on! A human parasite is someone who thrives and profits from the misery and misfortune of others. There's nothing more refreshing than an insurance adjuster performing an adjustment on their own flattened home.
OK not to open a potential bag o' worms..... We Adjusters are the guys that show up after Mother Nature has let people know that no matter what... She rules.... Yes we profit from the misery of others, but our profit is from making sure that people that have sustained damage have the funds to repair or replace what has been damaged. SO Parasite??? I think not.... more like the guy that shows up to help and he brings the check book with him.
no ike alex is still heading on a straight nnw heading..and has picked up speed..
Stalls are horrible. Allison was a nightmare.
alex is a june storm, they mostly don't get big.
people were hyping it up to be the next ike or katrina. Alex is slowly dying

he went from dolly 2.0
to erin 2.0

i bet alex hits as a depression.
with the history of this storm winds have been a while to catch up to the pressure.
Neither can wishcasters thinking they know what their talking about. If This storm is tracking exactly how NHC has predicted. So why now all of a sudden are they so wrong
572. IKE
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Looks like it's moving right on tropical forecast points, which is NW.


After looking at the TFP, it does look right on track.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Am I the only one that finds this vaguely familiar?


Look at the guy's name. It's enough to discredit anything he says.

But anyways, ridge is building in. The storm is firing decent nearly symmetrical convection over the COC. Looks like slow organization, and a gradual westward turn to me. Maybe cat 2 at landfall between Mexico and Mid way up the texas coast line.
no swirl i disagree with you thats cat 2 pressure
Quoting Dropsonde:
Wilma had 901 mb and it was only a Category 4 at that point. Felix had 929 mb at Category 5. The size of the storm and the surrounding environment mean a great deal, and this... thing... is not nearly as impressive as the central pressure in isolation would suggest. It had incredible convection right over the center, gray on AVN IR, last night, but it couldn't keep it! I think that the previous GFDL and HWRF had the correct idea, that Alex was simply never going to pull it all together. Let's be realistic and look at the history of it.


I'll have to agree with you. Both 92L and Alex have been positioned in highly favorable environments and not been able to "take advantage" of it for long enough to behave as expected by the models and forecast on this blog. While there's been a higher than usual number of rare variables inhibiting development, one can not discount that this storm continues to defy both human and machine in its track, behavior and development.
StormSurgeon, you are right, I should have known.

Very close to hurricane strength:

29/0545 UTC 21.4N 91.7W T3.5/3.5
578. Story
Well I don't know about you guys, but just looking at the sat pics this morning... it looks like the system over Texas that was pulling the moisture in and giving us rain is now going to see us with some bands from Alex. We have gone from 20-30% chance of rain to over 60%... it will be interesting indeed.
Ex-94L:



"Move a step farther west, and Alex will absorb you!"

Can you believe that Alex weakened and absorbed category three Darby?!

In memorium...

we have a massive wall of boomers heading towards the oil spill a we speak not good for the clean up operations...
one more stupid question then im done...at what point does a calm eye form in a hurricane? do cat 1's have them or do they start to form based on overall size, not strength?
WV FULL DISK:




Okay, I'm a newbie at deciphering WV imagery. Could anyone help me here?

The dry air north of Alex and the passing front is the ridge.

What is to the west of Alex? Just a huge mass of dry air? Or is that more ridging?
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
The NHC has been right on with this system. I do not understand why some people on here seem to think they can see something that the NHC doesnt. The NHC has a good fix on this system now and has it going in just south of Brownsville. So why in the world are people on here still saying its going to be a Tx/La storm. Are people just starved for attention


The NHC is always right because they adjust their track/intensity with each update as conditions change. Their job is to provide warning for the protection of life and property and to limit losses. The only question is how much warning the effected areas will have. Each year the NHC seems to increase the amount of time we all have a general idea of where the storm will go, and how powerful it is. They do a great job.

What they don't do is make a prediction 10 days out, and stick to it not matter what. That would be more like gambling rather than saving lives and property.


alex will follow this path and power. Erin
I think it should be a requirement to post where you live before you make a track forecast of any kind on here, so we can discredit everything you say when you forecast it to come to your neck of the woods... Too many wish-casters.
I wish Hurricane season was in the winter. So all these kids would have their butts in school instead of on here acting like fools
Quoting jpsb:
Dropsonde, Alex took a long long time getting things together just before land fall in Belize. So it is not surprising at all that he is once again taking a long long time getting it all together again. He is an underachiever but he'll get there (cat 2+).
I'll take that bet. It is not going to blow up over the water it is over because there is limited heat in it, and it's not moving fast. There is an outside chance that NHC will upgrade to a Cat 1 before landfall to err on the side of caution, but I don't think it's going any higher than that.

I love intense storms too, but this one hasn't got it. I'm not going to hang on to something that won't happen. There will be plenty of Cat 3s probably beginning as soon as next month.
Quoting IKE:
Looks to me like Alex is changing course and heading more NW or even bending toward WNW.
I see that too..
Quoting hurrkat05:
no swirl i disagree with you thats cat 2 pressure


What do you mean? I didn't just make that up out of thin air. the 965-980 isn't my opinion, it's the general rules for classifying storms based on pressure.

Cat 1 is greater than 980
Cat 2 is between 965 and 980
Cat 3 is between 945 and 965
cat 4 is between 920 and 945
Cat 5 is less than 920

And anyway these are just general guidelines. Storms can be more intense or less intense than their pressure readings indicate. In this case, Alex is much less intense than its pressure reading indicates.
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
I wish Hurricane season was in the winter. So all these kids would have their butts in school instead of on here acting like fools


they can still get on at school.
Quoting TXWorryWart:
Stalls are horrible. Allison was a nightmare.


I have a feeling that most of this storm's damage will end up being on land.
Quoting JDSmith:


Look at the guy's name. It's enough to discredit anything he says.

But anyways, ridge is building in. The storm is firing decent nearly symmetrical convection over the COC. Looks like slow organization, and a gradual westward turn to me. Maybe cat 2 at landfall between Mexico and Mid way up the texas coast line.



He does pretty well on here. Gets a few dozen fish in his keep net every time he comes on. I've had him on ignore since last year, but it's amusing to see the bites he gets when he's quoted.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Ex-94L:



"Move a step farther west, and Alex will absorb you!"

Can you believe that Alex weakened and absorbed category three Darby?!

In memorium...

lmfao!
Quoting Dropsonde:
I'll take that bet. It is not going to blow up over the water it is over because there is limited heat in it, and it's not moving fast. There is an outside chance that NHC will upgrade to a Cat 1 before landfall to err on the side of caution, but I don't think it's going any higher than that.

I love intense storms too, but this one hasn't got it. I'm not going to hang on to something that won't happen. There will be plenty of Cat 3s probably beginning as soon as next month.


Downcaster
598. tessa
I just found this on My-Cast radar from the National Weather Service:Tropical Storm
(Expires: Wednesday June 30 12:00AM CDT)

new information,
tropical storm warnings are now in effect, the watch has
been upgraded. the warning is for baffin bay to port o'connor.
a hurricane warning is in effect for south of baffin bay.

precautionary/preparedness actions,
precautionary/preparedness actions,

final preparations to protect life and property should be
completed before conditions deteriorate. the onset of gusty winds
and heavy rains is expected wednesday morning. rain and wind can
cause outside activities to become dangerous. secure loose
outdoor objects which can be blown around. if you live in a mobile
home, leave it for more substantial shelter.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I have a feeling that most of this storm's damage will end up being on land.


NS
why such hate for people under 28?


Hi all - at what point did the current models anticipate Alex to turn more west? I'm specifically trying to find out what's anticipated for the Galveston/Houston area so welcome grounded insight. Are they anticipating storms in this area and if so, when are they likely?
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
I wish Hurricane season was in the winter. So all these kids would have their butts in school instead of on here acting like fools


Cell phones have internet now, they'll still be on here. Thats how they're on September - November. Crazy aint it?
Question - is the ridge really going to be strong enough to curve Alex westward?
alex not looking so good, he ate to much. Now going for some mexican food in mexico.

Quoting Orcasystems:


NS


Nova Scotia?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Cell phones have internet now, they'll still be on here. Thats how they're on September - November. Crazy aint it?


some adults act like big kids
the weirdos might not even be kids
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Question - is the ridge really going to be strong enough to curve Alex westward?


Will find out soon.
Last shot before I get off for a while...

The "north"-ies keep ignoring the part of the forecast track which calls for a Nward movement - which movement has been called for since I got on the blog this weekend - and saying that if it's not going west already it'll never go west.... Thing is, most of them haven't actually plotted out a course where Alex goes west from where it is now.

Pple who are calling for a landfall anywhere up to Corpus area are in the forecast track area to begin with. I suppose Matagorda Bay isn't completely outside the realm of supposition if the highs don't build in quickly enough. But I think TX/LA border is more wishful thinking than anything else on this one.

However, we shall see what eventuates as the day progresses....
Quoting primadonnagirl:


they can still get on at school.


Yep... called the library XD
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Question - is the ridge really going to be strong enough to curve Alex westward?


yes, he is going west now I think.
612. IMA
Quoting Orcasystems:


NS
My thoughts exactly. lol "Inland" would work, though. I told myself that was what was meant. ...and good morning, Orca!
Quoting Dropsonde:
I'll take that bet. It is not going to blow up over the water it is over because there is limited heat in it, and it's not moving fast. There is an outside chance that NHC will upgrade to a Cat 1 before landfall to err on the side of caution, but I don't think it's going any higher than that.

I love intense storms too, but this one hasn't got it. I'm not going to hang on to something that won't happen. There will be plenty of Cat 3s probably beginning as soon as next month.


Alex still has 36-48 hours until landfall. I'd find it hard to believe that it's just gonna sit there at 60-65kts that whole time under mostly favorable conditions. Especially since it's developing an eye.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Question - is the ridge really going to be strong enough to curve Alex westward?


Ofcourse not.just wishcasting from NHC.
Alex may very well be a CAT 3 at landfall and looking at the lastest satellite, you can see the convection really blossoming, DEEPLY. This is as good as Alex has looked to date and with his vertical structure lining up, reducing wind shear, faster movement, warmer waters, RI has to be considered today and tonight if this convection holds steady throughout the afternoon. I could see this storm dropping 15 to 20 millibars today.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Nova Scotia?


ummmm ok :)
If the East Pacific side of Alex gets any larger, it'll eat Celia, too.

On the kids.... curiously enough, it was considerably WILDER in here on Sunday..... wonder who was off then who isn't on now....?????
alex needs to slow down for the curvature to take place..it is very hard to turn on a storm going that fast and also the size of it is a big factor...
621. jpsb
Quoting LightningCharmer:


The NHC is always right because they adjust their track/intensity with each update as conditions change. Their job is to provide warning for the protection of life and property and to limit losses. They do a great job.


Bump!
Quoting IMA:
My thoughts exactly. lol "Inland" would work, though. I told myself that was what was meant. ...and good morning, Orca!


I bad..I couldn't help myself :)
Good morning to you also :)
Quoting apocalyps:


Downcaster
ME? Ordinarily my forecast bias is for genesis and intensification. But I know when to let it go. The only Cat 2+ storms that have this much dry air and disjointed convective banding are weakening from being majors, not intensifying into them.
Quoting extreme236:


Alex still has 36-48 hours until landfall. I'd find it hard to believe that it's just gonna sit there at 60-65kts that whole time under mostly favorable conditions. Especially since it's developing an eye.


I agree. Also did you see on the recon the winds drop when they found the lowest pressure? Eye developing.


The National Hurricane Center (NHC) not only tracks hurricanes, makes forecasts based on their predictions, but they also are in existence to education the government and general public about hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center has been busy for the last few years with some of the worst, most devastating hurricanes in recorded history! The National Hurricane Center website is a great source of information. The website has the National Hurricane Center forecasts, hurricane history, and other miscellaneous links you may find valuable on hurricane related topics.

NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.
627. jpsb
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
If the East Pacific side of Alex gets any larger, it'll eat Celia, too.

What happened to Darby?
Quoting StormChaser81:


Cat 1 pressure, could also take a little while for the winds to catch up with the pressure decrease.



1MB FROM CAT2 AND STILL NO HURRICANE CLASSIFICATION!
THIS IS EXTREMELY UNUSUAL AND I DONT WANNA HEAR ANY ARGUEMENTS.
i agree totally jeff you are seeing the same thing im seeing
Quoting jpsb:
What happened to Darby?


Alex was hungry
632. IKE
System is bending more west right now. Put your specks on and speed up the visible floater. Stand back 5-10 feet from the computer and look at it. You can see it aiming in on northern Mexico/Texas state line.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I agree. Also did you see on the recon the winds drop when they found the lowest pressure? Eye developing.


Yup. Looks like we should be very close to seeing a hurricane.
Good morning all. Alex should continue to strengthen as it rids itself of the frictional forces of the Yucatan and moves over warmer GOM waters. I would like to recommend that folks in the my hometown of Austin and the Central Texas corridor from say San Antonio to Waco keep a close eye on developments. If Alex follows the NHC track, it will interact and follow the current weakness in the upper air. Currently that weakness is located in the western Hill country. This would allow wet side of Alex to interact with the hill country further increasing rain fall rates. Additional thoughts as the path of Alex firms up.
Please don't quote the trolls. Ignore user is a wonderful thing!!
Quoting primadonnagirl:


yes, he is going west now I think.
huh ????
Quoting illinichaser:
Alex may very well be a CAT 3 at landfall and looking at the lastest satellite, you can see the convection really blossoming, DEEPLY. This is as good as Alex has looked to date and with his vertical structure lining up, reducing wind shear, faster movement, warmer waters, RI has to be considered today and tonight if this convection holds steady throughout the afternoon. I could see this storm dropping 15 to 20 millibars today.


I'll be very surprised to see it reach strong cat 2.

It's working on filling the dry slot in the north west quad.

A burst of convection doesnt mean its in a rapid strengthening phase, just means its feeding off the warm waters.


I think storms like Alex and Ike will become more common. Weak in winds but huge storm surge and large drop of pressure.
Alex is simultaneously producing thunderstorms in Texas, Arkansas, Florida, Jamaica, Panama and Mexico. It's about eleven times the size of Texas including spiral bands.
ike i think you been hitting the valuims your eyes are playing trick on you lol..
Quoting apocalyps:
I am starting to think the GOM is to small for Alex.Maybe he will go true an eye wall replacement and jumps in the East-pacific.
More room overthere


thats impossible.
maybe a hurricane by 11am1!!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Cell phones have internet now, they'll still be on here. Thats how they're on September - November. Crazy aint it?


they can get on their black berries and type away.
Quoting IKE:
System is bending more west right now. Put your specks on and speed up the visible floater. Stand back 5-10 feet from the computer and look at it. You can see it aiming in on northern Mexico/Texas state line.


Yup. I think it's very likely the NHC will be correct.
646. beell
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I have a feeling that most of this storm's damage will end up being on land.


Nice one!
Well, I'm out. Gotta go earn my bagel. lol

Have a good one!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Nova Scotia?


No thanks, that's where I am from. You keep it in Mexico/Texas...or better yet, let it die in the gulf (dreaming I know).
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Hi all - at what point did the current models anticipate Alex to turn more west? I'm specifically trying to find out what's anticipated for the Galveston/Houston area so welcome grounded insight. Are they anticipating storms in this area and if so, when are they likely?


I believe that turn is beginning. Considering the size of the storm, you can be assured that the Galveston/Houston area will at least get a drenching.
Quoting MrNatural:
Good morning all. Alex should continue to strengthen as it rids itself of the frictional forces of the Yucatan and moves over warmer GOM waters. I would like to recommend that folks in the my hometown of Austin and the Central Texas corridor from say San Antonio to Waco keep a close eye on developments. If Alex follows the NHC track, it will interact and follow the current weakness in the upper air. Currently that weakness is located in the western Hill country. This would allow wet side of Alex to interact with the hill country further increasing rain fall rates. Additional thoughts as the path of Alex firms up.

Good Evening from an almost frozen Sydney. Currently it's 41.7°F tonight's low is meant to be 34°F.

How close is Alex to becoming a Hurricane, How many more kts does he have to gain?
I apologize to you adjusters. Most of you are good, honest people. My gripes are the result of owning a house on the west end of Dauphin Island that was badly damaged by both Ivan and Katrina. Adjusters showed up and undervalued the damage at about 30K each time. I had to come out of pocket each time. I blame the Insurance companies, not you guys. But I swear, if either one of those adjusters showed up on my front porch, I'd hit em so hard they wouldn't need no rocket to fly through space.
alex makes ike look like a baby.
I never seen a storm so large in my life, especially a a weak tropical storm.
shouldn't of ate darby poor guy.
Quoting BahaHurican:
On the kids.... curiously enough, it was considerably WILDER in here on Sunday..... wonder who was off then who isn't on now....?????


Its too early in the morning for many, up all night, sleep till the afternoon..... ahhh the carefree days of summer vacation.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening from an almost frozen Sydney. Currently it's 41.7°F tonight's low is meant to be 34°F.

How close is Alex to becoming a Hurricane, How many more kts does he have to gain?


Its about 3-4 mph away.
Coldest morning in three years chills NSW

Much of New South Wales, including Sydney has been gripped by the coldest morning in three years, record cold in some places.

Most of the state was about five to 10 degrees colder than the June average.

The state's coldest place was Glen Innes on the Northern Tablelands where it dropped to minus 10 degrees.

The coldest spot across Sydney this morning was Richmond which recorded a temperature of minus 3.8 degrees, the coldest it's been in five years.

This sort of cold is not unusual for July or August but for June it's much more rare.

Sydney city got as cold as 4.7 degrees at about sunrise, the coldest in three years and the coldest June morning in 27 years.

In the northwest of the state Bourke and Walgett both chilled to minus four degrees and Lightning Ridge minus two, the coldest it's been in June in more than a decade.

Most of NSW will be similarly cold on Wednesday morning with further severe frost expected.

From Thursday, mornings will still be cold but become progressively warmer as the coldest air dissipates and cloud and wind increase.

The crisp clear weather will turn cloudy and rainy in the north late in the week as moisture filters in from the tropics.

© Weatherzone 2010
657. hercj
Quoting Patrap:


The National Hurricane Center (NHC) not only tracks hurricanes, makes forecasts based on their predictions, but they also are in existence to education the government and general public about hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center has been busy for the last few years with some of the worst, most devastating hurricanes in recorded history! The National Hurricane Center website is a great source of information. The website has the National Hurricane Center forecasts, hurricane history, and other miscellaneous links you may find valuable on hurricane related topics.

NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.

Ah good morning Pat.
Euro>>>GFS on Alex. Have a good day...next system is about 10 days down the road.
660. jpsb
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Alex was hungry
Alex ate Darby? Damn, I saw it was robbing Darby's convection the other day but I did not think it would eat the entire hurricane. Is that kinda unusual? Never heard of TS eating a hurricane before. That Alex is a mean one!
Quoting rarepearldesign:


No thanks, that's where I am from. You keep it in Mexico/Texas...or better yet, let it die in the gulf (dreaming I know).


Send me some Brothers TNT and your forgiven.
Quoting jpsb:
What happened to Darby?


Alex ate it.

Quoting beell:


Nice one!


Well, that's what happened with Dolly and Allison.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Alex is simultaneously producing thunderstorms in Texas, Arkansas, Florida, Jamaica, Panama and Mexico. It's about eleven times the size of Texas including spiral bands.


Some outer bands are coming ashore in deep south Texas, but I haven't really seen anything identifiable as a feeder band elsewhere, and especially not so far north as Arkansas.
00z ECMWF develops a Caribbean system at around 216-240 hours if anyone's interested...lol




ALEX/Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Quoting IKE:
System is bending more west right now. Put your specks on and speed up the visible floater. Stand back 5-10 feet from the computer and look at it. You can see it aiming in on northern Mexico/Texas state line.



.."Somewhere in the French Quarter..a Tourist sippin coffee and snacking on a Warm powdered Beignet,..just flipped off a Balcony onto Royal Street"..


Plopp..poof
Quoting StormSurgeon:
I apologize to you adjusters. Most of you are good, honest people. My gripes are the result of owning a house on the west end of Dauphin Island that was badly damaged by both Ivan and Katrina. Adjusters showed up and undervalued the damage at about 30K each time. I had to come out of pocket each time. I blame the Insurance companies, not you guys. But I swear, if either one of those adjusters showed up on my front porch, I'd hit em so hard they wouldn't need no rocket to fly through space.


If you feel you are being taken advantage of by your insurance, get a public adjuster to estimate damages and negotiate with your insurance, and go to mediation if you have to.
667. LSU79
Quoting DestinJeff:
Weakness still evident in 1200 CIMSS layer mean analysis. Until that rockies high moves south and east, don't expect too much west motion from Alex.... especially since the atlantic ridge isn't exactly making much progress building west itself.


Destin, Post 623, I saw a similar map last night and if my memory serves correctly it looks af if the eastern ridge has backed off some. The Rockies ridge seems to have flattened out and the northern trough has dug deeper. That's just they way it appears to me.
Quoting txag91met:
Euro>>>GFS on Alex. Have a good day...next system is about 10 days down the road.

what is the next system are you talking about..


Trough #2 coming into California now....Not much room for a much of a building High in between but, some!
Quoting hercj:

Ah good morning Pat.


Wheels up ..

Morn'
Quoting AussieStorm:
Coldest morning in three years chills NSW

Much of New South Wales, including Sydney has been gripped by the coldest morning in three years, record cold in some places.

Most of the state was about five to 10 degrees colder than the June average.

The state's coldest place was Glen Innes on the Northern Tablelands where it dropped to minus 10 degrees.

The coldest spot across Sydney this morning was Richmond which recorded a temperature of minus 3.8 degrees, the coldest it's been in five years.

This sort of cold is not unusual for July or August but for June it's much more rare.

Sydney city got as cold as 4.7 degrees at about sunrise, the coldest in three years and the coldest June morning in 27 years.

In the northwest of the state Bourke and Walgett both chilled to minus four degrees and Lightning Ridge minus two, the coldest it's been in June in more than a decade.

Most of NSW will be similarly cold on Wednesday morning with further severe frost expected.

From Thursday, mornings will still be cold but become progressively warmer as the coldest air dissipates and cloud and wind increase.

The crisp clear weather will turn cloudy and rainy in the north late in the week as moisture filters in from the tropics.

© Weatherzone 2010


YIKES! How ya holding down there?
06z GFS continues to show an active itcz in a couple days.
673. IKE
Quoting Patrap:




ALEX/Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop




.."Somewhere in the French Quarter..a Tourist sippin coffee and snacking on a Warm powdered Beignet,..just flipped off a Balcony onto Royal Street"..


Plopp..poof


LOL.
StormW - I am in Corpus Christi, I have my boards out and ready to put up. I would also have to board up my father's house(only 2 very high windows). Before I try to break my neck, with the current track, is boarding up necessary for Corpus?
winds 75MPH
676. hercj
Quoting Patrap:


Wheels up ..

Morn'

In about 2 hours I'll be on my way back to TPA. Thank God, I hate this place and always have.

Quoting jpsb:
Alex ate Darby? Damn, I saw it was robbing Darby's convection the other day but I did not think it would eat the entire hurricane. Is that kinda unusual? Never heard of TS eating a hurricane before. That Alex is a mean one!


Yup. It completely devoured a category 3 hurricane. LOL

Typhoon Alex-1
EPAC-0
Alex Almost due north now
Alex is going south so I think bonnie will be alive in a few more days. I see her being the big one.
Looks like a big chunk of thunderstorms is separating from Alex heading north! Anyone think this may be a factor with the Gulf Oil rig or develop separately?

They are already getting 20-25 mph there.
Quoting StormChaser81:


I'll be very surprised to see it reach strong cat 2.

It working on filling the dry slot in the north west quad.

A burst of convection doesnt mean its in a rapid strengthening phase, just means its feeding off the warm waters.


I know, the storm had this exact type of convection last night, so I'm not impressed this morning. I don't guess everyone would have been on at midnight CDT to see it... and people wanting to believe in a Cat 3 doesn't hurt anything, I suppose. Lord knows it'll happen often enough in the next four months.
Recon just did a vortex pass though the NW quadrant. 982mb on that pass.
684. IKE
Even the non-tropical NAM model that's had Alex everywhere from the western GOM to the northern GOM on runs, has put Alex inland in northern Mexico on the 12Z run in 36 hours...

ales is still on a nnw heading nothing has changed..
Quoting StormChaser81:


I'll be very surprised to see it reach strong cat 2.

It's working on filling the dry slot in the north west quad.

A burst of convection doesnt mean its in a rapid strengthening phase, just means its feeding off the warm waters.




Good point stormchaser81, versus yesterday I'd have to say the enviroment has looked much more moist today than it did yesterday. I remembered the entire TX coastline had dark oranges paralleling it, but it seems to Whats your take on that? Is the dry air stay forcasted to stay up with this system up through landfall or is the system cleansing itself of it? Appreciate the insight!
687. jpsb
Quoting MrNatural:


I believe that turn is beginning. Considering the size of the storm, you can be assured that the Galveston/Houston area will at least get a drenching.
I have late season tomato plants ready to go in the ground. Today looks like a perfect day to plant, lots of rain coming. Just waiting for the west turn to start, then I'll plant. (Tomato plants do not like hurricane force winds)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Send me some Brothers TNT and your forgiven.


Chris Brothers sold out. You can still get it, but most of it is not the real Chris Brothers. They sold the rights to the Superstore (grocery chain) to make it in-store and it doesn't taste the same.
why so much hate for kids and younger people?

rather they be doing drugs then trying to predict the weather?

we were all young once.
Quoting primadonnagirl:
alex makes ike look like a baby.
I never seen a storm so large in my life, especially a a weak tropical storm.
shouldn't of ate darby poor guy.


Alex is only the first storm of the season. Don't be surprised to see some hurricanes in the open Atlantic that take up 40% of the NAtl basin (excluding the Mediterranean, Arctic region, Gulf of Guinea, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico).

Quoting AussieStorm:
Coldest morning in three years chills NSW

Much of New South Wales, including Sydney has been gripped by the coldest morning in three years, record cold in some places.

Most of the state was about five to 10 degrees colder than the June average.

The state's coldest place was Glen Innes on the Northern Tablelands where it dropped to minus 10 degrees.

The coldest spot across Sydney this morning was Richmond which recorded a temperature of minus 3.8 degrees, the coldest it's been in five years.

This sort of cold is not unusual for July or August but for June it's much more rare.

Sydney city got as cold as 4.7 degrees at about sunrise, the coldest in three years and the coldest June morning in 27 years.

In the northwest of the state Bourke and Walgett both chilled to minus four degrees and Lightning Ridge minus two, the coldest it's been in June in more than a decade.

Most of NSW will be similarly cold on Wednesday morning with further severe frost expected.

From Thursday, mornings will still be cold but become progressively warmer as the coldest air dissipates and cloud and wind increase.

The crisp clear weather will turn cloudy and rainy in the north late in the week as moisture filters in from the tropics.

© Weatherzone 2010


It's winter in the SHem, and Antarctic air is taking a vengance because all the ENSO warm water has moved east of the Philippines.

Quoting angiest:


Some outer bands are coming ashore in deep south Texas, but I haven't really seen anything identifiable as a feeder band elsewhere, and especially not so far north as Arkansas.


I see the thunderstorms in Arkansas, way ahead of the cold front as an extension of the feeder band that developed convection over the mountains of Mexico, north as low cloud into Texas and east over Arkansas through southern Georgia.
Quoting MrNatural:


I believe that turn is beginning. Considering the size of the storm, you can be assured that the Galveston/Houston area will at least get a drenching.


Thanks - I'm trying to walk the line of giving good info but not being an alarmist > I still haven't gotten a good read on the impact to the Hou/Galveston area (if even notable) so feeling like I'm not providing much support just yet. Great handle > any relationship to the place on S Lamar?
New Blog!!!

NEW BLOG!
Quoting womanmarine:
StormW - I am in Corpus Christi, I have my boards out and ready to put up. I would also have to board up my father's house(only 2 very high windows). Before I try to break my neck, with the current track, is boarding up necessary for Corpus?
Have you looked to the South East of you? What do you think?
Quoting IKE:
Even the non-tropical NAM model that's had Alex everywhere from the western GOM to the northern GOM on runs, has put Alex inland in northern Mexico on the 12Z run in 36 hours...



IMO that's way too far south. Alex would have to go a tad south of west to reach that point. But the NAM is sort of in line with other models now.
697. hercj
Hey Pat, even if the center of this system comes in down round Brownsville, now correct me if I'm wrong, but even up in Houston they are going to take some pretty heavy weather, are they not?
Quoting apocalyps:
Alex Almost due north now


Due North of what? It sure isn't going North?



AOI
Quoting rarepearldesign:


Chris Brothers sold out. You can still get it, but most of it is not the real Chris Brothers. They sold the rights to the Superstore (grocery chain) to make it in-store and it doesn't taste the same.


OMG.. just shoot me :(
Thank you for the update Storm. Will you be on Hurricane Hollow today?
Quoting illinichaser:


Good point stormchaser81, versus yesterday I'd have to say the enviroment has looked much more moist today than it did yesterday. I remembered the entire TX coastline had dark oranges paralleling it, but it seems to Whats your take on that? Is the dry air stay forcasted to stay up with this system up through landfall or is the system cleansing itself of it? Appreciate the insight!

my apoligizes I copied and pasted parts of that and not all of it come over. lol
Looks like no NOAA research on Alex for the next few days:


Mission Summary :

The P-3 was tasked by EMC to carry out a TDR mission into Tropical Storm Alex in the Bay of Campeche. The aircraft departed MacDill AFB, FL at 21:10 UTC. Engine problems forced a premature end to the mission and the aircraft returned to MacDill by 02:24 UTC the next day.

Problems :

Engine #1 had to be shut down during this mission. Experiment was cut short and NOAA 42 returned to MacDill AFB, FL. Aircraft will be out for maintenance for several days.
Rain chances go up to 70% for Galveston/Houston on Thursday. Wont feel any substantial winds from the storm bieng so far south. So just some good beneficial rain weve been needing
Quoting BahaHurican:
New Blog!!!

NEW BLOG!
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!
Appreciate the related comment/question blueyedhrlyridr and herci!
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Am I the only one that finds this vaguely familiar?


Nope.
Quoting extreme236:


Alex still has 36-48 hours until landfall. I'd find it hard to believe that it's just gonna sit there at 60-65kts that whole time under mostly favorable conditions. Especially since it's developing an eye.


Yes, and it's just now starting to get into some serious OHC. That's why it's firing convection so dramatically, IMHO. Pressures should continue to fall, and things should start consolidating and tightening around the eye.
we are definately looking at Hurricane Alex now!!! thank God he started moving NW again!!!!