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Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.

Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.

Next post
Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Link

Go here and Click on the top Left GOES 4KM Visible..the flash loop and tell me what you see....
3502. xcool
game on now he go move now .beginning to change hmmm
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Link

Go here and Click on the top Left GOES 4KM Visible..the flash loop and tell me what you see....


UT OH....gaining strength?? Moving SLOWLY NW??
hey there, alex! welcome back, stranger. how you've been? lol, :).
3505. emguy
Yeah, no relocate of center going on (I like crow deeply fried with a light dipping sauch to preserve the flavor. LOL!)

Alex pretty much stationary still based on t-storm evolution over last hour plus the outflow blowoff factor. Maybe a slight drift north by a very few miles (we can walk farther in that time). Otherwise, looks like he's just chillin' in place.

P.S. Not that I wish for hurricanes or anything, but movement is so easier to judge at night with a nice, clear established eye in a strong system. On forward motion, I'd prefer to guess my best with this one.
3506. xcool
Joanie38 :)
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Link

Go here and Click on the top Left GOES 4KM Visible..the flash loop and tell me what you see....
I see alex moving ever so slightly to the northwest.
Quoting GlobalWarming:
hey there, alex! welcome back, stranger. how you've been? lol, :).


Hello Global.... :)
Quoting xcool:
00z UKMET MOVE N TO

to where??lol
Quoting Joanie38:


Hello Global.... :)
Hello joanie38
Quoting Joanie38:


UT OH....gaining strength?? Moving SLOWLY NW??


I think NW would be generous...i'm having a hard time seeing any Westward movement at all..in the last 2 or 3 frames it looks to speed up a bit in almost a Due North heading (345-355) interesting to see if this is a trend
Can anyone tell if Alex is feeling the pull of the trough??
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hello joanie38


Hello alexhurricane1991..:)
Quoting Joanie38:
Can anyone tell if Alex is feeling the pull of the trough??
Yep i think its feeling the trough right now with the movement to the nw/nnw right now
3515. xcool
Link


ROB HERE
Quoting louisianaboy444:


I think NW would be generous...i'm having a hard time seeing any Westward movement at all


I do not see ANY westward movement!!
3365 texascoastres "I fear the hit will be between Matagorda Bay and Galveston."

That's what GFS@132hours said yesterday that got the NHC all excited.
3518. xcool
Joanie38 YOU NEED GLASS LOL
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Yep i think its feeling the trough right now with the movement to the nw/nnw right now


That's what I thought..thank you alexhurricane1991..:)
Quoting emguy:
Yeah, no relocate of center going on (I like crow deeply fried with a light dipping sauch to preserve the flavor. LOL!)

Alex pretty much stationary still based on t-storm evolution over last hour plus the outflow blowoff factor. Maybe a slight drift north by a very few miles (we can walk farther in that time). Otherwise, looks like he's just chillin' in place.

P.S. Not that I wish for hurricanes or anything, but movement is so easier to judge at night with a nice, clear established eye in a strong system. On forward motion, I'd prefer to guess my best with this one.

i don't know if that was directed to the question i asked, but thanks for info.:)i have been asking that question for a while now and no answer from anybody. i'm sure people are to busy to answer my silly questions:)
3521. SykKid
Quoting sarahjola:
i agree with nne. maybe not at moment but its coming soon. imo. is it possible that the coc can relocate?


Who knows what he's up to. I don't see any E movement. Looks to be very slowing going NNW to me.
Looks like the EURO went north, not to Texas, but northern Mexico.
Hello,

Well hard to say where is going, But GFS is one maybe the best serious model with European. So we have to wait i think next 24 hours will see.
Quoting xcool:
Joanie38 YOU NEED GLASS LOL


I do??? WHY?
hi there, but that wasn't directed towards you, nevermind, lol.
Quoting xcool:
Link


ROB HERE

omg here too wth
3527. xcool
ROB TELL KID YOU STOP MAKE SOUND IN MY BEDROOM


LMAO
Quoting Joanie38:


I do??? WHY?
Hes joking
3529. xcool
Joanie38 I do not see ANY westward movement!LOL ;0!
Quoting xcool:
Joanie38 I do not see ANY westward movement!LOL ;0!



thats WHAT i SAID...no WESTERN MOVEMENT! LOL!!!
Quoting xcool:
Joanie38 I do not see ANY westward movement!!
I see nnw movement
3533. xcool





NEW
good night, all.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I see nnw movement


Slowing down....wobbles to the north...you know what that means..Something is tugging this thing North or trying to anyway i think we are witnessing the beginning of the fight between the ridge and the trough
I'm out too goodnight everyone...be back here when I wake up....and get my coffee...LOL!!
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Slowing down....wobbles to the north...you know what that means..Something is tugging this thing North or trying to anyway i think we are witnessing the beginning of the fight between the ridge and the trough


YES..but its beginning to look more like a Brownville landfall
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Slowing down....wobbles to the north...you know what that means..Something is tugging this thing North or trying to anyway i think we are witnessing the beginning of the fight between the ridge and the trough
I agree interesting times ahead
3539. SykKid
ULL seems to be whats stalling Alex...
Quoting xcool:





NEW

thats an ouch for me
3520 sarahjola "I'm sure people are to busy to answer my silly questions :) "

And I'm sure that comments are coming in so fast&furious that a LOT of pages gets hidden from many individual viewers' eyes cuz they're skipped over by page renewals.
Quoting btwntx08:

thats an ouch for me


True...but we will have to wait and see if the models will shift again....
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I agree interesting times ahead


This is what has slowed the system and with that Northward movement the trough is winning this round it will be important to monitor the motion over the next 12 hours to see if this is a trend and to look at the model runs tomorow goodnight all
Right now i think alex wil make landfall from northern mexico to corpus christi but this is subject to change and this slow motion is going to complicate things even more.
3546. xcool
new update
3547. SykKid
Quoting SykKid:
Why are you talking to me?
3548. xcool
Morning, everyone-

Alex should start accelerating toward the NNW for the next 24 to 48 hours. A very slight increase in forward speed is occurring at the moment, just west of due north. If Alex picks up his speed and is heading in a NNW motion while he is moving at his fastest pace, a more northern track toward the Texas Coastal Bend will be higher. If Alex begins moving more NW initially then I'd be more inclined to believe a Mexico landfall somewhere. Alex is about to feel the weakness to the north caused by the trof passing by and should begin accelerating over the next 12 to 24 hours. Alex has really hurt his chances for intensification tonight since he hasn't removed himself too far from land. Tomorrow night should be a totally different story.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Right now i think alex wil make landfall from northern mexico to corpus christi but this is subject to change and this slow motion is going to complicate things even more.


Agreed!! Goodnight again for the 2nd time! LOL!! See yall in the morning!
Quoting Joanie38:


True...but we will have to wait and see if the models will shift again....

today is pretty much the last time the models may shift and if they stay similar im in for it
3552. xcool
models doing a poor job what trough
alex enters the gulf, wow how long this took.
Quoting btwntx08:

today is pretty much the last time the models may shift and if they stay similar im in for it
theres still time for the models to shift in either direction
Quoting btwntx08:

today is pretty much the last time the models may shift and if they stay similar im in for it


We will see...tomorrow..err today... will be an interesting one for sure!!
3556. xcool
n.h.c go to rigth .
My Alex Forecast 001:

TS Alex Forecast

Obviously not expecting landfall at that one point, just a centered area, between margins of error.
Quoting xcool:
new update


WHAT update???
3559. xcool
prairiewxwatcher wow



Joanie38 7:Gulf of Mexico Infrared Satellite
This morning, models are in tight agreement on a landfall from Northern Mexico, to Southern Texas. Those in Southern Texas start preparations tomorrow and no later, please. I can't emphasize how serious the situation could get. Alex might have enough time and water to become a Major Hurricane, NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. The anticyclone is forecast to move back to the east in response to the upper level low moving out of the northern GOM, which has been affecting Alex's movement. Tomorrow we will most likely know how north Alex gets.

My LATEST forecast based on steering maps, models, and water vapor satellite.
Photobucket
Quoting btwntx08:

today is pretty much the last time the models may shift and if they stay similar im in for it


Today is certainly not the last day for models to shift. They could easily shift 200 miles from where they are currently. Alex is not forecast to make landfall until Thursday. Remember, the average error for the 4-5 day cone is 200-300 miles. If Alex moves further north than currently forecast, he won't be making landfall on Thursday. It would more than likely be Friday, possibly early Saturday.
3562. SykKid
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Slowing down....wobbles to the north...you know what that means..Something is tugging this thing North or trying to anyway i think we are witnessing the beginning of the fight between the ridge and the trough


That ULL is helping erode the ridge.

Again i'm not sure if this things starting to move slowly to the NNW or if it's just a wobble...keep in mind the core isn't all that solid right now. Time will tell....
Quoting xcool:
prairiewxwatcher wow



Joanie38 7:Gulf of Mexico Infrared Satellite


What about it?
Quoting prairiewxwatcher:
My Alex Forecast 001:

TS Alex Forecast

i pretty much agree with that
3566. xcool
Joanie38 .I WAS JUST POSTING
The models are still kinda wishywashy....IMO
Quoting btwntx08:

i pretty much agree with that


Glad to see some agreement on it, thanks. The trough should steer Alex to the North further than the current NHC forecast is showing. Models have progressed northwards over the past 24 hours a fair amount, so that's been taken into consideration, extrapolating trends, etc. But then again, things could change.
From looking at the NASA satellite, I looped 30 frames and the only movement I could see was a slight NNE movement. Yes, north-northeast. That's not the start of a trend. That's just Alex's center bouncing around, following the heaviest thunderstorms that blow up around the center. Other than that, movement has been almost nil.
Quoting reedzone:
This morning, models are in tight agreement on a landfall from Northern Mexico, to Southern Texas. Those in Southern Texas start preparations tomorrow and no later, please. I can't emphasize how serious the situation could get. Alex might have enough time and water to become a Major Hurricane, NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. The anticyclone is forecast to move back to the east in response to the upper level low moving out of the northern GOM, which has been affecting Alex's movement. Tomorrow we will most likely know how north Alex gets.

thx i'll be beginning doing that later today
Patrap "I think I swallowed a gnat. Is that a bad sign?"

No... but if you've swallowed a spider to catch that gnat, you may have some problems...
Quoting xcool:
prairiewxwatcher wow



Joanie38 7:Gulf of Mexico Infrared Satellite


What do you mean exactly by wow, xcool?
Quoting prairiewxwatcher:


Glad to see some agreement on it, thanks. The trough should steer Alex to the North further than the current NHC forecast is showing. Models have progressed northwards over the past 24 hours a fair amount, so that's been taken into consideration, extrapolating trends, etc. But then again, things could change.


How FAR north???
3574. xcool
prairiewxwatcher image you shows
my confidential weather modification source says "Alex" is
going to be hit very hard with track alteration and unexplained
weakening to be expected. [laughs]

also that "ALEX" will not be allowed to hold any status above CAT1.

I am told landfall will be south of Brownsville right at the Mexican Border
possibly wed evening is my info.

a scenario similar to Dolly but further south and much weaker.

it will be interesting to see if this information pans out.

i have seen enough weather modification of hurricanes in the atlantic
in the last few years to make me a believer though.




3576. Hattie
boy...its late and may be I am seeing things, but it looks like Alex is being pulled apart if you run the loops....

3573. Joanie38 1:28 AM CST on June 28, 2010

Quoting prairiewxwatcher:


Glad to see some agreement on it, thanks. The trough should steer Alex to the North further than the current NHC forecast is showing. Models have progressed northwards over the past 24 hours a fair amount, so that's been taken into consideration, extrapolating trends, etc. But then again, things could change.



How FAR north???
----------------------
Well, I'd say that all depends on how much the trough can actually steer Alex. I wouldn't be surprised if the model consensus actually pushed north a little more. But I'm not thinking Galveston/Houston, maybe Corpus Christi? We'll have to see how Alex moves today to make any real forecasts on the direction.
3578. SykKid
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
my confidential weather modification source says "Alex" is
going to be hit very hard with track alteration and unexplained
weakening to be expected. [laughs]

also that "ALEX" will not be allowed to hold any status above CAT1.

I am told landfall will be south of Brownsville right at the Mexican Border
possibly wed evening is my info.

a scenario similar to Dolly but further south.

it will be interesting to see if this info pans out.

i have seen enough weather modification of hurricanes in the atlantic
in the last few years to make me a believer though.






Your username suits you well.
According to the NHC, the Danger Zone includes the area from Brownsville,TX to The Mouth of the Mississippi. I totally agree. Anybodys guess, 70% Texas, 30% Louisiana, That's just my opinion..
Quoting SykKid:


Your username suits you well.


if only you knew what i knew. too bad i can't tell ya.
3581. xcool
:0
3582. SykKid
Quoting tropicallsu:
According to the NHC, the Danger Zone includes the area from Brownsville,TX to The Mouth of the Mississippi. I totally agree. Anybodys guess, 70% Texas, 30% Louisiana, That's just my opinion..


Yea...let's just go ahead and forget about Mexico......
Quoting xcool:
:0


Whats with that face xcool?? What is going on???
is alex dying?
3585. xcool
Joanie38 i posting in 3mins
Quoting sarahjola:
is alex dying?



Hmmmmm..interesting question
3587. SykKid
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


if only you knew what i knew. too bad i can't tell ya.


Why don't you go ahead and share your 'information' with those working at the NHC as you clearly know something that they dont.
3588. emguy
Quoting xcool:


xcool...What I see on your satellite loop looks like a ridge over Alex at the uppse levels (lets just guess 200mb), an Upper level low/trough over western gulf (lets just guess 500mb), and some weak...WEAK ridging in the north Gulf at about 850mb level.

Hmmm, NHC wonders why HWRF and GFDL maintain weak systems to the coast, there may be a shear environment those models are considering if Alex plowed that direction. Otherwise, Alex gets deep, I suspect paths of less resistance at a deeper level, but I sure hope not!
Quoting sarahjola:
is alex dying?

nope
Quoting emguy:


xcool...What I see on your satellite loop looks like a ridge over Alex at the uppse levels (lets just guess 200mb), an Upper level low/trough over western gulf (lets just guess 500mb), and some weak...WEAK ridging in the north Gulf at about 850mb level.

Hmmm, NHC wonders why HWRF and GFDL maintain weak systems to the coast, there may be a shear environment those models are considering if Alex plowed that direction. Otherwise, Alex gets deep, I suspect paths of less resistance at a deeper level, but I sure hope not!


What do you mean..exactly???
is alex shifting?
Quoting sarahjola:
is alex shifting?


THATS what i'm wondering....
3593. SykKid
Quoting sarahjola:
is alex dying?


Uh no. Alex isn't doing a whole lot of anything right now. He's pretty much just chillin.
3594. xcool
mean move nw
Hey Joanie you dont live in TX do you??
Quoting NathanT30:
Hey Joanie you dont live in TX do you??


Ummm nope...Southwest Louisiana....why???
3597. SykKid
Quoting sarahjola:
is alex shifting?


Who knows. I personally don't think he's shifting...just wobbling around a bit...but who knows with this storm anything can happen lol.
3598. xcool
Just wondering know a Joanie on Bolivar TX just curious. But I am keeping an eye on Alex here in SE TX.
anything is what alex has been doing. lol!
Quoting xcool:


Looks like Alex is moving north!!!
Quoting xcool:
Alex is starting to feel the trough now in the last few frames it looks to have a due north motion probably a wobble
3603. xcool
Joanie38 yep ;)
Quoting SykKid:


Why don't you go ahead and share your 'information' with those working at the NHC as you clearly know something that they dont.


They know all about Hurricane Modification trust me!!!

NOAA actually REFUSED to work with the Department of Homeland Security [DHS]
on Hurricane Modification as of last year From what i understand.

Just because they dont take part in it doesnt mean they arent aware of it.

why do you think we have a track right now that doesnt make sense? and a storm that looked better over the YUCATAN than it does now over the warm Gulf Waters. LOL really.
3605. xcool
not good...
good morning all. from what i gather, looking at the models and steering layers, and shear maps, it is really too early to tell what alex may do. it will be 12 to 24 hours before the models can get a good lock on alex because he really has no steering at the moment, and he needs some kinda movement. models take into consideration alot of variables when the calculations are done, and remember models are subject to LARGE error. give it 12 hours, and we will see a big change in everything. just my 2 cents.
Quoting NathanT30:
Just wondering know a Joanie on Bolivar TX just curious. But I am keeping an eye on Alex here in SE TX.


Oh...another Joanie..:) I am keeping an eye on Alex myself but the mets here don't think its gonna come close this way....
Quoting xcool:
nnw or nw? looks more n than nw to me:)
3609. xcool
weathertap Satellite best..
3610. emguy
Beyond obvious dynamics going on, which have pretty much stalled Alex, consider the storms wind dynamics. Wind decreases over land due to frictional affects, yet accelerates over water due to the lack of these affects (terrain, trees, some buildings, etc.) Alex may hug along and ride up the Yucatan Coast slowly as a result of these affects, since the steering currents are light, and Alex remains weak so far.

For the purposes of visual description only, look at the satellite loop on your computer and draw your finger counter clockwise around Alex's main center/thunderstorms. Imagine winds accelerating over ocean, the imagine stronger onshore winds coming inland on the south side of Alex then decelerating over land. It not only adds to the stalling issue (as these stronger winds are on the south side of the storm in a stalled environment offer no forward motion), but it also adds to the "hug thy coast affect" as the onshore winds dominate and keep the storm in a "hug" pattern.
3611. xcool
nw to me
From the looks of it it's stalled which does not bode well for westward movement anymore, there was so much w-wnw movement, but what's happening upstream in Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle seems to be panning out as part of the high that's been burning us up here in Dallas is weakening and retreating. I think we might see a northward track and have this head towards Houston.

Quoting sarahjola:
nnw or nw? looks more n than nw to me:)
It looks like its moving north now but could resume a nnw or nw motion in a couple hours.
Alex is moving North for now, & no I don't think that's a wobble. I beleive this is going to be the start to the trend North-Northwest.
3615. drj27
next they will be saying its coming to the fl panhandle lol im out yall have a good night
3616. xcool


not good wow
Quoting tropicallsu:
Alex is moving North for now, & no I don't think that's a wobble. I beleive this is going to be the start to the trend North-Northwest.


Upper Texas coast and Louisiana need to really watch this thing!!
not good for who:)
We have a couple of good recent HH center fixes to tell us in what direction and at what speed Alex is moving.

The last 2 center fixes (both 991) occurred 2 hours 10 minutes apart at a distance of 16 miles.

Over that time, Alex was moving at 7.4 mph on a heading of 330 degrees, i.e. approaching NNW.

This is not from eyeballing satellite, this is from actual HH vortex messages. No guesswork involved.

Edited to add: the most recent fix was at 5:33Z, about 2 1/2 hours prior to this post.

3620. xcool
sarahjola steering flow maps
3621. SykKid
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


They know all about Hurricane Modification trust me!!!

NOAA actually REFUSED to work with the Department of Homeland Security [DHS]
on Hurricane Modification as of last year From what i understand.

Just because they dont take part in it doesnt mean they arent aware of it.

why do you think we have a track right now that doesnt make sense? and a storm that looked better over the YUCATAN than it does now over the warm Gulf Waters. LOL really.


Because it just emerged and is still hugging the coast,it's also getting sheared abit. I agree that it likely won't get any stronger then a top end cat 1....But what exactly is your source for everything you just stated?
Quoting FMTXWMAN:
From the looks of it it's stalled which does not bode well for westward movement anymore, there was so much w-wnw movement, but what's happening upstream in Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle seems to be panning out as part of the high that's been burning us up here in Dallas is weakening and retreating. I think we might see a northward track and have this head towards Houston.

I dont think that far north maybe as far north as corpus but houston sould not let there guard down.
Great two years after riding IKE out I get to ride Alex out it appears sigh.
Quoting NathanT30:
Great two years after riding IKE out I get to ride Alex out it appears sigh.


i wouldnt worry. Alex may be nothing more than a squall in a few days.
I'm out be back in a few hours...maybe shorter lol..NIGHT!
Quoting xcool:
sarahjola steering flow maps
la/tx?
Quoting Joanie38:


Upper Texas coast and Louisiana need to really watch this thing!!

im saying northern mx to houston now
Agreeing with you, TropicalNonsense... I saw the radar images of them pounding at Hurricane Rita from just south of Brownsville, and them hitting Wilma from the Yucatan. I saw the pulses going from offshore of Jacksonville last year to hit Fay, I believe it was. Saw some fishy things for Karen, too.

I'm thoroughly convinced they managed to beat Gustav down after it hit Cuba, too, as every model and every expert on here expected it to reform into a big Cat 4 or 5 over the Gulf Eddy, and it never did.

I've been thinking they've been hitting Alex hard, too, as why else wouldn't it form in the Carribean... why did it only develop an eye over land. I expect that to continue, too, as they simply have to keep it away from the oil.

Jo
dr rob carver just updated new blog
3631. xcool
huh
Yes, they must be killing the hurricanes, because they remove heat and that would go against their global warming agenda....Give me a break. Can we just stick to the facts Here. This blog is full of great information lets keep it that way.
Quoting SykKid:


Because it just emerged and is still hugging the coast,it's also getting sheared abit. I agree that it likely won't get any stronger then a top end cat 1....But what exactly is your source for everything you just stated?



Shear,Dry Air,HAARP,Scalar EMF signals,Dyna Gel ..there are so many i can't list.
Quoting flibinite:
Agreeing with you, TropicalNonsense... I saw the radar images of them pounding at Hurricane Rita from just south of Brownsville, and them hitting Wilma from the Yucatan. I saw the pulses going from offshore of Jacksonville last year to hit Fay, I believe it was. Saw some fishy things for Karen, too.

I'm thoroughly convinced they managed to beat Gustav down after it hit Cuba, too, as every model and every expert on here expected it to reform into a big Cat 4 or 5 over the Gulf Eddy, and it never did.

I've been thinking they've been hitting Alex hard, too, as why else wouldn't it form in the Carribean... why did it only develop an eye over land. I expect that to continue, too, as they simply have to keep it away from the oil.

Jo



you are very informed flibinite. all of what you stated is true. people laugh and make jokes

but it is because they are just un-informed like most americans. sorry to say.

there is a big cover up in this area because of the liability is ridiculiously huge. so they just
catagorically deny it.



Quoting tat2dchristian81:
Yes, they must be killing the hurricanes, because they remove heat and that would go against their global warming agenda....Give me a break. Can we just stick to the facts Here. This blog is full of great information lets keep it that way.


so you are the one who decides what is fact? really.
Do your own research and become educated before you speak so harshly.
3636. guygee
06Z NAM has Alex heading for S. Texas and then doing a cyclonic loop with some center relocations without coming ashore through 84 hr.
I am discounting the center relocations especially, there is a solid strong surface circulation and I don't see that changing.

They looping seems related to the trough influence passing by and then a weak high building in behind.
3637. guygee
Wow those conspiracy theorists really cleared out the joint, just like those stallcasters harshed everyone's tropical buzz earlier. :~\

heh, new blog.