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Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:55 PM GMT on July 02, 2010

Hurricane Alex is gone, killed by the high mountains of northern Mexico. Alex's rains linger on, and will continue to cause flooding problems in northern Mexico today. Alex killed at least 24 people in its week-long traverse of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. One death occurred in the Dominican Republic, and fourteen were killed in Central America. In Mexico, the outer rainbands of the storm killed three in Acapulco, one person in Oaxaca, and one person in Chiapas. Following its final landfall, Alex caused at least eight deaths in Nuevo León, with three persons reported missing. It is possible Alex will have its named retired, though I think it unlikely. One of the countries substantially affected by a hurricane must make a request to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to have the hurricane's name required. Mexico was the country most affected by Alex, and Mexico has been reluctant to make retirement requests in the past. For example, Mexico suffered two landfalls from Category 5 Hurricane Emily in 2005, yet did not request that Emily's name be retired; there will be a new storm named Emily next year.

I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles. Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Alex at landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

The tropics are relatively quiet
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. Some of the models give support for an area of weak low pressure to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico along this front. NHC is giving a 10% chance of a tropical depression forming by 8am Sunday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also indicating development may occur by the middle of next week along the portion of the front offshore from South Carolina. There is also some suggestion by several models that a strong tropical disturbance may form by the middle of next week in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, or in the Western Caribbean. At this point, none of these possibilities are worthy of significant concern, though we'll keep to keep an eye on them.

I'll have an update Saturday afternoon. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:


link please.


Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 3rd, with Video

Thanks MH09.
I will say that 95L is about the most cloudless invest I have ever seen. But ya never know, convection could pop up anytime in there. The pressure fall has me mildly surprised and impressed. Perhaps development will start on Monday.
Quoting Patrap:
1004 mb low in the BOC as well Ike.

thats the interesting bugger to watch.




Interesting thing about that is that it was 1009.3 yesterday
2504. Patrap
Great video Levi, as always!!
2506. IKE
Looks to me like 95L is slowing down it's movement. I wonder if the NHC ups the odds? I'll go w/a 20% chance.
Astro, I like your size comparison of western Gulf of Mexico hurricanes!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I will say that 95L is about the most cloudless invest I have ever seen. But ya never know, convection could pop up anytime in there. The pressure fall has me mildly surprised and impressed. Perhaps development will start on Monday.


As long as minimal convection fires up, and pressure continues to drop the NHC might make it a subtropical or tropical depression. They did it with TD-10 of 2007. An excerpt from Wikipedia says:

"Despite an overall disorganized structure, with a poorly defined circulation and an upper-level low aloft, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Subtropical Depression Ten at 1500 UTC on September 21 while it was located about 40 miles (60 km) south of St. Vincent Island, Florida, citing the potential for additional development right along the coastline."
2510. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I will say that 95L is about the most cloudless invest I have ever seen. But ya never know, convection could pop up anytime in there. The pressure fall has me mildly surprised and impressed. Perhaps development will start on Monday.


The pressure fall is more due to large-scale pressure falls across the entire Gulf of Mexico right now, and has little to due with any individual effort by 95L. Also, I have seen far more naked invests than this lol.
Quoting IKE:
Looks to me like 95L is slowing down it's movement. I wonder if the NHC ups the odds? I'll go w/a 20% chance.
I would go with a 20% too, anyways any development will likely be subtropical rather than tropical because of the very high shear.
2512. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Eeeei-ee


A real tropical Gully Washer in Uptown Nola right now.



I'm in the dry air over here in the panhandle...only 85.5 outside...dew point 69.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well I'll be back after I check out the video...
Nice circulation at 53w 13N,,,!
Quoting Patrap:


Interesting, storms popping up over LA from 95L and the outflow of post-tropical Alex.
Quoting IKE:


I'm in the dry air over here in the panhandle...only 85.5 outside...dew point 69.


Sunny and dry in Mobile, ribs are on the smoker.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Finally, we can get an accurate size comparison of storms at/near landfall.

Emily 2005 (cat. 3):


Rita 2005 (cat. 3):


Dolly 2008 (strong cat. 1):


Ike 2008 (cat. 2):


Alex 2010 (cat. 2?):


Hmm...notice anything?


Very nice work ...

I knew he was big, but didn't know HOW BIG he really was.
If something does form in the next 5-6 days, you won't be able to say the CMC didn't predict the cyclogenesis.

12Z CMC
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Astro, I like your size comparison of western Gulf of Mexico hurricanes!


Notice anything about Alex? It does not look like a cat. 2!
Quoting jurakantaino:
Nice circulation at 53w 13N,,,!


Lol, I'm lazy. What area is that?
2520. GetReal
Patrap we're being hammered over here on the Westbank, with HEAVY tropical downpours!!!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Finally, we can get an accurate size comparison of storms at/near landfall.

Emily 2005 (cat. 3):


Rita 2005 (cat. 3):


Dolly 2008 (strong cat. 1):


Ike 2008 (cat. 2):


Alex 2010 (cat. 2?):


Hmm...notice anything?


Very nice work ...

I knew he was big, but didn't know HOW BIG he really was.
Nobody saw the 12z Canadian?

96 hours... Hurricane Bonnie landfall in SW LA.

Photobucket

144 hours... Look at whats lurking in the E. Caribbean.
Photobucket
Levi, excellent video!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
If something does form in the next 5-6 days, you won't be able to say the CMC didn't predict the cyclogenesis.

12Z CMC


Better save those images, because I can already predict people dissing the CMC big time.
apologies if this is a repost:

Public Information Statement

Statement as of 11:35 am CDT on July 3, 2010

... two day heavy rain event for parts of southeast Texas coming to and end...

A two day rain event that pummeled parts of southeast Texas with almost 14 inches of rain is finally on the wane. Although scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
today... rainfall totals will be much more tame. The rain was caused by a couple of a factors but the most significant ingredient was deep tropical moisture. As Alex made landfall in northern Mexico... the storm lulled tropical moisture from the Caribbean toward southeast Texas. High pressure over the eastern United States helped to reinforce the moisture trajectory and kept the train of moisture chugging across southeast Texas. Wave after wave of rain moved continuously over the same area producing tremendous rainfall totals.

Brazoria County was the hardest hit area. Areas near Sweeny and West Columbia received 10 to 12 inches of rain on Thursday and
Friday. Parts of Matagorda and Jackson counties received 8 to 10 inches of rain and Harris... Fort Bend and Wharton counties
received between 6 and 8 inches of rain. The evening commute in Houston... slow even in the best of weather... was slowed considerably by heavy rain and flooded roadways. Hobby Airport on houston's southeast side established 24 hour rainfall records on the July 1st and again on July 2nd. Bush Intercontinental Airport established a new rainfall record on July 2nd. It was the heaviest rainfall event at Intercontinental Airport since September 13 2008 (hurricane Ike - 7.73 inches). It was the heaviest rain at hobby Airport since April 18th 2009 (5.15 inches).

Unfortunately... dozens of homes and businesses took on water as drainage systems struggled to keep up with rainfall and elevated
tides slowed the flow of area rivers. Below is a table with 2 day rainfall totals from across southeast Texas.

Site July 1 July 2 total

Bush iah 0.37 5.43 5.80
hobby apt 3.92 4.97 8.89
Sugarland 1.27 6.01 7.28
Palacios 6.67 0.55 7.22
Angleton 2.69 2.15 4.84
Pearland 3.02 3.89 6.91
Conroe 0.45 3.19 3.64
Huntsville 0.43 0.79 1.22
NWS office 3.31 1.28 4.59
Galveston 0.84 0.20 1.04
College Station 0.16 0.82 0.98

Other locations around southeast texas:

Community July 1 July 2 total

Alvin 3.85 3.28 7.13
Anahuac 1.90 0.46 2.36
arbor 0.49 4.36 4.85
Bellville 0.68 0.78 1.46
Brenham 0.27 1.10 1.37
Caldwell 0.60 0.35 0.95
Cleveland 2.24 1.50 3.74
Crockett 0.46 1.23 1.69
Danevang 3.38 1.62 5.00
Edna 2.67 1.73 4.40
El Campo 2.01 1.66 3.67
Freeport 2.28 0.35 2.63
hou heights 3.96 5.49 9.36
hou Westbury 2.28 4.36 6.64
Liberty 1.27 0.47 1.74
Matagorda 1.40 0.62 2.02
Richmond 3.01 3.51 6.52
West Columbia 8.85 1.89 10.74
Wharton 3.37 1.60 4.97

Other rainfall reports

Harris County July 1 July 2 total

Baytown 8 NE 2.01 1.29 3.30
Bunker Hill vge 1.86 3.15 5.01
Channelview 2.30 2.70 5.00
Hillshire Village 3.25 3.00 6.25
Houston 3.9 se 3.06 3.26 6.32
Katy 6.8 E 2.19 4.07 6.26
Kingwood 1.8 E 0.72 4.75 5.47
Kingwood 3.9 S 0.63 5.18 5.81
South Houston 4.87 4.69 9.56
Tomball 0.6 W 0.35 3.30 3.65
Webster 5.24 1.88 7.12

Fort Bend County July 1 July 2 total

Mission Bend 1.50 6.02 7.52
Needville 3.00 4.39 7.39
Richmond 3.4 NE 2.50 5.58 8.08
Stafford 1.7 se 1.90 5.40 7.30
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would go with a 20% too, anyways any development will likely be subtropical rather than tropical because of the very high shear.


Just as I predicted without a supercomputer when Alex was active, 95L develops, drifts over NOLA then back east to develop in the Gulf Stream as a subtropical storm.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
If something does form in the next 5-6 days, you won't be able to say the CMC didn't predict the cyclogenesis.

12Z CMC
Lol, I can not imagine this blog with 2 tropical storms and one hurricane hitting Texas.

CMC 12z 96 hours

2528. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
If something does form in the next 5-6 days, you won't be able to say the CMC didn't predict the cyclogenesis.

12Z CMC


LOL. Well, at least they all do have some real potential.

It's really messing up in the gulf though. 95L isn't going northeast and Alex II isn't likely going into Louisiana, but that's what the CMC showed for Alex I too.
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Nobody saw the 12z Canadian?

96 hours... Hurricane Bonnie landfall in SW LA.

Photobucket

144 hours... Look at whats lurking in the E. Caribbean.
Photobucket


Don't forget Colin on the East Coast, and then whatever the "D" storm lurking in the Carribean... thats scary.
2530. Levi32
Quoting Snowlover123:
Levi, excellent video!


Thanks :)
2531. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
If something does form in the next 5-6 days, you won't be able to say the CMC didn't predict the cyclogenesis.

12Z CMC


That will get to 23 by mid-September! LMAO!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, I can not imagine this blog with 2 tropical storms and one hurricane hitting Texas.

CMC 12z 96 hours




oh boy the mode runs are being a wishcaster
2533. Patrap
Early July,,esp the first week,,always seems to Favor a Mid GOM system.



Dont discount it.




2534. GBguy88
Quoting IKE:


I'm in the dry air over here in the panhandle...only 85.5 outside...dew point 69.


Lol...59% humidity is dry to us. It's bordering on tragic.
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks :)


You're welcome. How many updates do you do a week?
CMC is developing, what, 4-5 storms in the next week? lol

If that happened, 2010 could make 2005 look inactive.
2537. Levi32
Also, that thing east of the Bahamas at 96 hours on the 12z CMC is the tropical wave currently at 54W east of the windward islands, and that isn't going north of the Caribbean either.
Danielle is D.
2539. Levi32
Quoting Snowlover123:


You're welcome. How many updates do you do a week?


I try to do one every morning except sometimes on weekends or if I sleep in too much to have the time.
Quoting extreme236:
CMC is developing, what, 4-5 storms in the next week? lol



now thats wishcasting
Quoting MrstormX:
Danielle is D.


And Colin is "C." :)
Quoting extreme236:
CMC is developing, what, 4-5 storms in the next week? lol


We will be right on par with 2005. lol
Quoting extreme236:
CMC is developing, what, 4-5 storms in the next week? lol

If that happened, 2010 could make 2005 look inactive.



yup
Quoting extreme236:
CMC is developing, what, 4-5 storms in the next week? lol

If that happened, 2010 could make 2005 look inactive.


Oddly enough, at least one other model verifies a storm that CMC spins up. For instance the GFS verifies the CMC for the East Coast Storm, the NAM and EMCWF also note a BOC storm... and so on and so forth.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


We will be right on par with 2005. lol



dont you all this love it
I'm not sure if anyone posted this or not before:

000
ABNT30 KNHC 011127
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE ALEX WAS THE ONLY TROPICAL CYCLONE OBSERVED DURING THE
MONTH OF JUNE AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SINCE
1995. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO JUNE HURRICANE SINCE 1966.
ON AVERAGE...A TROPICAL STORM OCCURS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JUNE
EVERY OTHER YEAR...AND A HURRICANE ABOUT ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. ALEX
MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST IN THE MUNICIPALITY
OF SOTO LA MARINA LATE ON 30 JUNE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE
LETTERS...HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
----------------------------------------------------
H ALEX 25 JUN- 105

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Regardless of what 95l does - it seems like it might have the potential to bring more rain to Hou/Galv area:

Hou/Galv HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

TXZ210>213-226-227-235>238-041315-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WHARTON-
813 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. THIS ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS THE THREAT OF RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING
WARRANTS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF AND DRIFT WEST POSSIBLY BRING MORE RAINS ON DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING TODAY.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, I can not imagine this blog with 2 tropical storms and one hurricane hitting Texas.

CMC 12z 96 hours



Hate to say this, but the Caribbean storm that the CMC voraciously develops from the wave SW of Cape Verde looks a lot like Felix. SSTs are just warm enough to support a Felix.

Quoting extreme236:
CMC is developing, what, 4-5 storms in the next week? lol
br>If that happened, 2010 could make 2005 look inactive.
I would hesitate to say that.

2005 had 5 named storms in the month of July, here's the thing.

2005 had 1 category 5 hurricane in July and 1 category 4 in July, along with 1 category 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms.
CMC 144 hours out shows New England worst nightmare. And a Felix like system to boot in the Caribbean.
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Nobody saw the 12z Canadian?

96 hours... Hurricane Bonnie landfall in SW LA.

Photobucket

144 hours... Look at whats lurking in the E. Caribbean.
Photobucket
can we get a link please? thanks in advance:) looks bad. where does that system in the Caribbean go and how strong does it look in that frame, if you can tell? thanks:)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC 144 hours out shows New England worst nightmare. And a Felix like system to boot in the Caribbean.


I dunno, that CMC East Coast storm looks more of a threat to Nova Scotia than to New England.
i have noted that the wind shear is olny 5 too 10kt for this wave all so for the wave be hide it

Whiteout torrential downpours in Clearwater right now, rain rate of 4.02 inches per hour pretty good amount of lightning and wind too.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hate to say this, but the Caribbean storm that the CMC voraciously develops from the wave SW of Cape Verde looks a lot like Felix. SSTs are just warm enough to support a Felix.

I'm more interested with this wave that has an inverted V signature.



Also the tropical wave in the central Caribbean looks suspicious for some possible "mischief".
From the 2:05 PM Discussion.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N47W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 3N53W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
50W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm more interested with this wave that has an inverted V signature.



Also the tropical wave in the central Caribbean looks suspicious for some possible "mischief".



i have noted some weak turning with that wave
Quoting Tazmanian:



i have noted some weak turning with that wave
Yeah some cyclonic rotation can be noted along the axis so something is definitely cooking in there. Should be interesting to see what happens once it makes it into the Caribbean.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah some cyclonic rotation can be noted along the axis so something is definitely cooking in there. Should be interesting to see what happens once it makes it into the Caribbean.



you think will see 96L from it?
Quoting extreme236:
CMC is developing, what, 4-5 storms in the next week? lol

If that happened, 2010 could make 2005 look inactive.
well if ya think thats freaky wait till the CV season kicks into high gear in about two weeks from now
Quoting Tazmanian:



you think will see 96L from it?
If it makes it into the Caribbean with the an appearance similar to the one it has now, yes I think we'll see 96L or possibly 97L from it.
I believe Alex was a cat3. Or the best developed Cat2 ever...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE TODAY. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it makes it into the Caribbean with the an appearance similar to the one it has now, yes I think we'll see 96L or possibly 97L from it.



where would we see 97L??
Who called 20% earlier??

Salute!
IKE was right
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Who called 20% earlier??

Salute!



IKE
Looked at local radar (Galveston) this morning, looked good for a quick trip to Home Depot. Fed and dressed the kids and right before we ready to go out the door we hear rain drops hitting the driveway. A real turd floater too! Looks to be hit and miss over here for next several days.
2575. Patrap

Features

June 29, 2010
Gulf of Mexico oil spill visible with the Metop-A Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT)
The ASCAT instrument on the METOP-A polar satellite observes the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.



The Advanced SCATtterometer (ASCAT), on the METOP-A polar satellite is a double-swath side-looking microwave radar providing all-weather information of the Earth surface, as depicted in Figure 1. The basic measurement is the normalised radar backscatter cross-section, which over water is related to the surface roughness in the wavelength of a few centimeters. This mechanism is known as Bragg scattering, or scattering of a directional incoming radar signal by ripples, as shown in Figure 2. As the sea surface roughness is related to the wind-speed, it is possible to retrieve sea surface winds from ASCAT measurements.
Figure 2: Microwave scattering and reflection at a smooth (a), rough (b) and very rough (c) ocean surface. (Click to enlarge)

Figure 2: Microwave scattering and reflection at a smooth (a), rough (b) and very rough (c) ocean surface. (Click to enlarge)

Oil spills have a different constitution than water, reducing sea surface roughness. The left panel in Figure 3 shows an RGB composite of the three ASCAT radar backscatter images, taken with the fore, mid and aft antennas respectively (red: fore, green: mid, and blue: aft). The image covers the area 25-31 degrees N and 85-91 W and corresponds to a METOP-A descending pass on May 21. Note that a dark spot is clearly visible, corresponding with the size and location of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico during May 21. Over this area, the sea is rather smooth due to the oil spill and the radar backscatter is consequently very low.

Quoting Tazmanian:



IKE
Wasn't it a 10 percent chance on the update this morning? Trending in the wrong direction.
Quoting Tazmanian:



where would we see 97L??
I think we could see an invest out of all 3 of these systems:

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Who called 20% earlier??

Salute!
IKE called it and then I jumped on board with the idea.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Wasn't 10 percent chance on the update this morning. Trending in the wrong direction.



yup
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think we could see an invest out of all 3 of these systems:





oh cool so 96L 97L and may be 98L so what about 99L
2581. dearmas
so much fr us being the SunShine state, its been soooo ugly all week, Im in Wesley Chapel
Which Ike? Hurricane Ike, the IKE scale, Ike Eisenhower, or the blogger Ike?
Quoting Hhunter:
this may be the carribean energy to watch

The one near Jamaica?=?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Which Ike? Hurricane Ike, the IKE scale, Ike Eisenhower, or the blogger Ike?




the bloger IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:




oh cool so 96L 97L and may be 98L so what about 99L
Sure makes planning a summer vacation with the kids a real headache. Even if we go somewhere a storm won't affect the travel plans (interior US) I still have to leave my house unsecured, etc.
2586. srada
I dont buy into the new england cmc scenario..isnt the bermuda high supposed to be sitting over the midatlantic states?
Pat? Did you follow that link on the ASCAT page to the experiemental coastal viewer? Cool, if it works!

Link
2588. Patrap
Uncle IKE the blogger.

He stated the NHC would Upgrade to 20% and they did.

Reading back can always er,,clear the confusion usually.
Its odd to think that the member "Ike" actually predated the retired, Hurricane Ike.
2590. ackee
NEXT weeks looks very intresting might see Bonnie and colin question what steering pattern set up for next weeks ? look like WE MAY see more Ivan and felix like track if any thing does form CV WAVE
2591. Patrap
Quoting pcbsmokey:
Pat? Did you follow that link on the ASCAT page to the experiemental coastal viewer? Cool, if it works!

Link


I always use that..it a good tool.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Sure makes planning a summer vacation with the kids a real headache. Even if we go somewhere a storm won't affect the travel plans (interior US) I still have to leave my house unsecured, etc.



ok
Quoting Tazmanian:




oh cool so 96L 97L and may be 98L so what about 99L
Lol, ok I'm going big time overboard with the invest predictions, but I'll tell you were I think we'll see 99L out of. The wave circled in pink below is turned into a hurricane in the Caribbean by the CMC so it has to be worth mentioning. Ughhh, tinypic isn't working but the wave just west of the African coast is the one I'm talking about.

Hi good afternoon.

Triangulation
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, ok I'm going big time overboard with the invest predictions, but I'll tell you were I think we'll see 99L out of. The wave circled in pink below is turned into a hurricane in the Caribbean by the CMC so it has to be worth mentioning. Ughhh, tinypic isn't working but the wave just west of the African coast is the one I'm talking about.




ok
2597. IKE
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.




Hmmm.
Hope this helps.

JMA

Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone know where i can get a similar map of the WPAC?



Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, ok I'm going big time overboard with the invest predictions, but I'll tell you were I think we'll see 99L out of. The wave circled in pink below is turned into a hurricane in the Caribbean by the CMC so it has to be worth mentioning. Ughhh, tinypic isn't working but the wave just west of the African coast is the one I'm talking about.


nice how fast is it moving?:)
did JFV get banned from last night
Quoting IKE:
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.




Hmmm.


Might still be hope for 95L, huh?
& they're off & racing..In the model quest to see who can best project 95L.. AEMN (National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)~GFS fed) & AVNO starts well with 25.8nm error after the 1st day.. the rest have done not so well.. NOGAPS 59, CMC 77, BAMD 117, OFCL 139, BAMM & LGEM 146, LBAR 169, CLP5 203.
Some broad cyclonic turning is evident on MIMIC-TPW with the wave in the central Caribbean. If convection continues to persist I expect it to earn recognition from the NHC sometime within the next 24 hours.

Quoting extreme236:


Might still be hope for 95L, huh?



yup
2605. Hhunter
Quoting kputerman26:

The one near Jamaica?=?
yes
Quoting extreme236:


Might still be hope for 95L, huh?
I think there still is.
Wind shear and dry air letting up after 60 hours.Could allow 95 L to become a weak TS or TD.
NEW BLOG!
NEW BLOG

It'd be even odder to think that IKE pre-dated Eisenhower before he met Mamie.
taz- your a man of few words today:) happy 4th
The upper level ridge currently developing adjacent to the SW Caribbean is forecasted to begin to advect with the tropical wave by the central Caribbean as per the GFS 12z 200-850mb vertical shear forecast. At this point in time, 60 hours, the tropical wave is over the Yucatan and here you can see the anticyclone there too.

GFS 12z 200-850mb vertical shear forecast.

2612. Hhunter
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm more interested with this wave that has an inverted V signature.



Also the tropical wave in the central Caribbean looks suspicious for some possible "mischief".


What does an inverted V signature indicate? I think this is the same storm, or part of it that had the swirl over Africa.


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah some cyclonic rotation can be noted along the axis so something is definitely cooking in there. Should be interesting to see what happens once it makes it into the Caribbean.


Probably from the merger of two disturbances, both helped by Alex.

Quoting ackee:
NEXT weeks looks very intresting might see Bonnie and colin question what steering pattern set up for next weeks ? look like WE MAY see more Ivan and felix like track if any thing does form CV WAVE


I'd like to see Colin retired so they can replace it with Clyde. Bonnie and Clyde.

Quoting Chicklit:
Hi good afternoon.

Triangulation


Caribbean system appears to be heading for Jamaica.

Quoting extreme236:


Might still be hope for 95L, huh?


Notice they said subtropical. Gulf Stream systems do that sometimes.
ECMWF has development in 120 hours. The 8th, or Thursday.