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Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So is this track set in stone now??
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alex is strengthening at a good rate..becoming very well organized. 2AM I'd expect them to upgrade Alex to an 80MPH Category One hurricane. JMO
3003. Levi32
Quoting Joanie38:
So is this track set in stone now??


No, but with a lot of these 0z runs coming in south of the TX/MX border, it may point towards less likelyhood of a Texas landfall, but that possibility is still very open. The models have been performing terribly so far even in the short term track.
If this turns out to be Audrey, then every model & forcaster including the NHC & Joe B were wrong.
Quoting CaneAddict:
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alex is strengthening at a good rate..becoming very well organized. 2AM I'd expect them to upgrade Alex to an 80MPH Category One hurricane. JMO


I agree!
look at the orange CLP5 29/0000Z model on this map. it shows the the same path that Hurricane Audrey took in 1957. also look Very Closely at how all the models thats together over texas take a sharp curve to the northeast like Hurricane Audrey did in 1957.
Quoting Levi32:


No, but with a lot of these 0z runs coming in south of the TX/MX border, it may point towards less likelyhood of a Texas landfall, but that possibility is still very open. The models have been performing terribly so far even in the short term track.

So do you think we still need to watch this here in SW LA?
3008. shakaka
Quoting LightningCharmer:


I don't know if I agree with the new format. Math is only 1/3 of the total score and verbal, reading and writing, 2/3's. Are language skills twice as important as math skills. Would we have had such a mortgage crisis if more understood math, i.e. finance, better?

Not that language skill are not important but math based fields like accounting, engineering, computers, tele-communications, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, weather forcasting, etc. are generally more wealth producing and provide scientific advances that lead to among other things, more advance warning of pending severe weather including tropical weather events.

Maybe they, the powers that be, added the writing because of the all the "Text-Speak." (Not while driving Oprah)

Perhaps maybe it goes back to our learnin' roots, "readin', writin' & 'rithmatic.


It's probably because the people who make the decisions about what goes on these exams were liberal arts majors and have no way of knowing how right you are.
3009. BA
Quoting RuBRNded:


too late, already several models showing a direct hit at my house (I live on the beach, gulf coast)
3010. Daveg
We'll see about south of the border... models have been bouncing north and south all day. Most are north right now...

Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.
Quoting Joanie38:
No you should be fine northern mexico to corpus problem right now.
Quoting Joanie38:
So is this track set in stone now??


Is anything ever set in stone, with regards to meteorology? Ask yourself that.
Well we know tropical systems can do silly and shocking things at the last moment...
Alex is over cooler waters and near coolest waters in Gulf until it moves north of 22.33 N. Thinking this together with some of the dry air and shear that has impacted storm recently should slow development for the next few hours, but once it is north of 22.5N or so if other conditions favorable, that will be when to watch and see what develops. Thoughts?
3016. xcool
alex hey
Quoting Joanie38:
So is this track set in stone now??


No.
Hi all,

I have been on this blog reading, and lurking, since 2004 (when Charley went right over me in SWFL). Finally, I have joined the fray (that darn 12 hour wait window was surprising, but makes since) I will properly introduce later....

I was noticing UTC time on the noaa satellite feeds (NHC site of course) are about 2 hours behind. Am I reading that wrong? I like Levi's satellite sites (can make your own zoom and animation level), but was wondering if I am getting some kind of lag time when using the NHC links.

Link
3019. Levi32
Quoting Joanie38:
So do you think we still need to watch this here in SW LA?


I have never considered LA in play since Friday. I just don't see that happening. You guys over there may see some of the very outer bands with a few thunderstorms if this goes into Texas, but I think you can breathe easy.
Quoting thegoldenstrand:
Alex in cooler waters and near coolest waters in Gulf until it moves north of 22.33 N. Thinking this together with some of the dry air and shear that has impacted storm recently should slow development for the next few hours, but once it is north of 22.5N or so if other conditions favorable, that will be when to watch and see what develops. Thoughts?


Completely agree.
Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.
im going with scenario 1 for the time being but scenario2 is ver possible.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is anything ever set in stone, with regards to meteorology? Ask yourself that.


Oppps, you are right I understand....thanks..:)
All 0z models coming together...HWRF south & now GFDL goes way south


WHXX04 KWBC 290525
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.7 91.7 360./ 4.1
6 21.2 92.2 316./ 6.4
12 22.0 92.9 318./10.1
18 22.4 93.5 308./ 7.0
24 22.9 94.2 306./ 8.2
30 23.2 95.0 293./ 8.0
36 23.4 95.9 282./ 8.5
42 23.4 96.5 267./ 6.1
48 23.6 97.3 285./ 7.2
54 23.5 98.2 263./ 8.7
60 22.9 99.7 250./14.5
66 22.5 101.6 257./17.8
72 22.5 103.4 269./17.3
78 23.0 105.6 283./20.1
84 24.1 107.1 306./18.0
90 25.2 108.3 312./15.3
96 26.3 109.1 323./13.0
102 27.3 109.9 321./12.6
108 27.6 110.3 308./ 5.0
114 28.5 111.4 307./13.2
120 28.9 111.7 328./ 5.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
inland hurricane wind warning just went to effect here
3025. tessa
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.
3026. BA
Quoting tristanh72:


Should be something to filter out all the "ZOMG! its going to hit NO as a cat 5!!!!!!!!elevnty!!! bank on it!!!!" stuff that's been around so much. Then again, it's like that every season. A few names you come to listen to, a whole lot of other background noise.


exactly, healthy discussion, i.e. I think it may go here because of this feature and that feature seems fine, ppl that just, "ALEX CAT4 into LA, BELIEVE IT" really don't help much
Quoting thegoldenstrand:
Alex in cooler waters and near coolest waters in Gulf until it moves north of 22.33 N. Thinking this together with some of the dry air and shear that has impacted storm recently should slow development for the next few hours, but once it is north of 22.5N or so if other conditions favorable, that will be when to watch and see what develops. Thoughts?


Current conditions around Alex don't seem to be bothering him to much. He's done nothing but get better organized all night. I don't see it being affected much if at all from the slight deviations with the conditions that could normally cause problems with a developing hurricane. This is likely because alex is such a big system.
3028. Levi32
984.7mb and 73-knot flight-level winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290534
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 54 20100629
052500 2123N 09148W 9249 00557 9855 +228 +222 286007 011 021 000 00
052530 2124N 09147W 9244 00561 9853 +226 +223 288003 005 022 001 00
052600 2125N 09147W 9244 00559 9851 +227 +222 133002 003 024 000 03
052630 2127N 09146W 9243 00559 9849 +225 +222 131005 007 021 000 00
052700 2128N 09144W 9246 00554 9847 +225 +222 135013 016 021 002 00
052730 2129N 09143W 9246 00552 9847 +220 +220 135022 024 026 000 00

052800 2130N 09142W 9247 00554 9851 +216 +216 138028 030 030 003 00
052830 2131N 09141W 9247 00558 9856 +211 +211 139032 034 035 004 00
052900 2132N 09140W 9247 00562 9859 +219 +214 139037 039 038 003 00
052930 2133N 09139W 9248 00566 9866 +216 +210 140043 046 047 005 00
053000 2134N 09137W 9248 00572 9875 +198 +198 141057 060 052 009 00
053030 2135N 09136W 9248 00575 9882 +192 +192 141063 067 057 014 03
053100 2136N 09135W 9251 00576 9888 +190 +190 136068 068 061 022 03
053130 2137N 09134W 9246 00590 9897 +189 +189 138068 069 062 020 00
053200 2138N 09133W 9246 00596 9905 +189 +189 141069 073 055 010 00
053230 2139N 09132W 9248 00603 9913 +193 +189 137069 070 053 012 00
053300 2140N 09131W 9255 00601 9920 +187 +187 131066 067 055 025 03
053330 2141N 09130W 9244 00614 9927 +175 +175 135066 068 058 037 03
053400 2142N 09128W 9244 00620 9934 +170 +170 138068 068 056 035 03
053430 2144N 09127W 9243 00625 9938 +176 +176 142067 069 054 022 03
$$
3029. Or4590
alex struggle
Quoting Levi32:


I have never considered LA in play since Friday. I just don't see that happening. You guys over there may see some of the very outer bands with a few thunderstorms if this goes into Texas, but I think you can breathe easy.


Agree, Louisiana hit slim chance. Mississippi hit not at all. The good news is no oil spill recovery effort should be interrupted, and my house will not be covered in tar and oil. If I get one this year that's it no more rebuilding. not that you would be able when covered in oil.
3031. Levi32
Quoting Goldenblack:
Hi all,

I have been on this blog reading, and lurking, since 2004 (when Charley went right over me in SWFL). Finally, I have joined the fray (that darn 12 hour wait window was surprising, but makes since) I will properly introduce later....

I was noticing UTC time on the noaa satellite feeds (NHC site of course) are about 2 hours behind. Am I reading that wrong? I like Levi's satellite sites (can make your own zoom and animation level), but was wondering if I am getting some kind of lag time when using the NHC links.

Link


I'm up to 04:45 UTC on that loop...they are usually 45 minutes behind which isn't awful, but I prefer the best :)

If you're 2 hours behind then your browser must be having a problem updating it. Try using the flash loop instead of the java loop.
Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.


I didn't think it took a scientist to read a few lines on a map.
Quoting Joanie38:
I guess its set in stone now eh??


As soon as anyone knows all the answers, the questions change. Such is life.
Quoting gustavcane:
look at the orange CLP5 29/0000Z model on this map. it shows the the same path that Hurricane Audrey took in 1957. also look Very Closely at how all the models thats together over texas take a sharp curve to the northeast like Hurricane Audrey did in 1957.


The CLP5 is a climatology and persistance model which is basically just where storms have historically done based on chronology and geographic position mainly. Experts, please correct me if I'm wrong.

The other models are going to be generally more reliable since they are based on current conditions. The historic trends have always interested me but I don't believe we have enough history to make them reliable. JMHO
3035. 7544
morning all alex looks good ready for dmax

new blob just broke away from alex now in the center of the gom hmmmmmm could this become something at dmax tooo
Quoting Levi32:
984.7mb and 73-knot flight-level winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290534
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 54 20100629
052500 2123N 09148W 9249 00557 9855 +228 +222 286007 011 021 000 00
052530 2124N 09147W 9244 00561 9853 +226 +223 288003 005 022 001 00
052600 2125N 09147W 9244 00559 9851 +227 +222 133002 003 024 000 03
052630 2127N 09146W 9243 00559 9849 +225 +222 131005 007 021 000 00
052700 2128N 09144W 9246 00554 9847 +225 +222 135013 016 021 002 00
052730 2129N 09143W 9246 00552 9847 +220 +220 135022 024 026 000 00

052800 2130N 09142W 9247 00554 9851 +216 +216 138028 030 030 003 00
052830 2131N 09141W 9247 00558 9856 +211 +211 139032 034 035 004 00
052900 2132N 09140W 9247 00562 9859 +219 +214 139037 039 038 003 00
052930 2133N 09139W 9248 00566 9866 +216 +210 140043 046 047 005 00
053000 2134N 09137W 9248 00572 9875 +198 +198 141057 060 052 009 00
053030 2135N 09136W 9248 00575 9882 +192 +192 141063 067 057 014 03
053100 2136N 09135W 9251 00576 9888 +190 +190 136068 068 061 022 03
053130 2137N 09134W 9246 00590 9897 +189 +189 138068 069 062 020 00
053200 2138N 09133W 9246 00596 9905 +189 +189 141069 073 055 010 00
053230 2139N 09132W 9248 00603 9913 +193 +189 137069 070 053 012 00
053300 2140N 09131W 9255 00601 9920 +187 +187 131066 067 055 025 03
053330 2141N 09130W 9244 00614 9927 +175 +175 135066 068 058 037 03
053400 2142N 09128W 9244 00620 9934 +170 +170 138068 068 056 035 03
053430 2144N 09127W 9243 00625 9938 +176 +176 142067 069 054 022 03
$$
system is still strengthing at least pressure wise 73kt flight level is how much at the surface?
Looks like the center has gone further north based on recon
3038. xcool
7544 hey
Please people, you all know this north track is only momentarily. If something Texas will get hit a bit further north, but that's all. Think about it when was the last chance you saw a storm moving basically the opposite side of the cone? So lets quit Northcasting and even worse noreastcasting.
Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.


Any poleward movement of Alex will be short-lived. Steering currents should restrengthen, and force a more WNW component within the next day or so.

However, I'd still keep my eyes peeled, just in case that does not materialize.
Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.


I hadn't heard of it stalling. I think it's the high above it or behind it that's supposed to steer Al west. So that would seem to bloc the westward movement. Of course I am not a met and could be perfectly wrong.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
system is still strengthing at least pressure wise 73kt flight level is how much at the surface?

84.007
Looks like Alex is finally moving again. My daybreak he will be heading towards a more favorable environment.
MODELS ARENT DOWN TO 2 SCENARIOS!!!!!
Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.


Scenario 3.
Stationary/slow movement.
3046. help4u
hwrf to texas
Quoting AlexEmmett:

84.007

not sure of surface but what i post is kt to mph at ftlvl
3048. Levi32
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
system is still strengthing at least pressure wise 73kt flight level is how much at the surface?


925mb reduction gives 55 knots at the surface which is the the current advisory intensity, a 65mph tropical storm.
Quoting Levi32:


I'm up to 04:45 UTC on that loop...they are usually 45 minutes behind which isn't awful, but I prefer the best :)

If you're 2 hours behind then your browser must be having a problem updating it. Try using the flash loop instead of the java loop.


Thank you very much for replying. That was what I was afraid of Levi. I am a bit of an instructional technologist, so I have all kinds of security protocols and firewalls running over here, which really messes with the flash loops. Do you get blank frames in your noaa animation loops too?

E
SFMR reported non-contaminated 62 knot surface wind reading. Borderline hurricane readings.
3051. xcool
Scenario 2 here
3052. 7544
hey xcool and btw get ready 80mph ?????
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Please people, you all know this north track is only momentarily. If something Texas will get hit a bit further north, but that's all. Think about it when was the last chance you saw a storm moving basically the opposite side of the cone? So lets quit Northcasting and even worse noreastcasting.


Not northcasting just asking a question....nevermind, no more questions .....:(
Quoting Levi32:


925mb reduction gives 55 knots at the surface which is the the current advisory intensity, a 65mph tropical storm.
Okay thanks have to refresh the memory sometimes you know.
3055. Levi32
Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.


They do, but a ridge currently moving over the Rockies is coming east and will be forcing Alex back towards the WNW at some point. Right now it looks like only southern Texas and Mexico are in play, but if Alex moves much slower than forecast, which it has tended to do, there may be yet more changes to the possible track, but right now the most likely landfall areas are still northern Mexico to southern Texas.
Another thing, in meteorology you cannot use historical data. It is just extremely unreliable. How can you believe all conditions will be present for a storm to follow the track of a provious storm? what are the odds of that happening same steering currents located at the same place? You could use historical data just to get a rough idea of how many hurricanes could form if temperatures and a few other conditions are similar to previous years ie: this year looks sort of like 2005, but not quite there yet.
Quoting scottsvb:



brownsville isnt ground zero but they arent out of the woods yet.... they will probably get TS force winds mostly in feeder bands only. That's cause the system is big. The main hurricane force winds will be 100- 150 miles further south.Landfall will be around 23.3-23.8N

From earlier today and last night
Quoting CaneAddict:
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alex is strengthening at a good rate..becoming very well organized. 2AM I'd expect them to upgrade Alex to an 80MPH Category One hurricane. JMO


I guess they're going to wait untill 5AM to upgrade it. That could be a mistake, personally I believe this is a Hurricane but oh well. I'm off you all have a good night.
They almost always hook right...I'm just saying
1:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 29
Location: 21.4°N 91.8°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.

scenario 1 most likely
3062. Daveg
Wow...what a split in the models..

Going to be interesting...
Link
3063. BA
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Another thing, in meteorology you cannot use historical data. It is just extremely unreliable. How can you believe all conditions will be present for a storm to follow the track of a provious storm? what are the odds of that happening same steering currents located at the same place? You could use historical data just to get a rough idea of how many hurricanes could form if temperatures and a few other conditions are similar to previous years ie: this year looks sort of like 2005, but not quite there yet.


yet you see it every day, forecasters using analogs and comparing to previous years, though I imagine they are looking at general patterns in those cases

I'm with you though, I've never put much stock in analogs for current storm tracks
Man I stayed up til 1 for nothing lol. Got work in the morning. Levi, just wanted to say thanks for the good info as usual. I will see yall in the morning and I'll bet we'll have hurricane Alex by then. Night!
I am no expert but do anyone know if these computer models have taken into account that what effect is Tropical Depression Darby is taking on the present and future track of Alex. right now it looks like Alex is pulling Tropical Depression Darby east to it to Merge its Moisture field with its own.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
1:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 29
Location: 21.4°N 91.8°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

that based of later data they just found 62sfc winds and 984 pressure
3067. Levi32
Alex is moving at about the same speed since the last vortex fix (2 hours ago), and his heading is now NNW at 340 degrees since the last fix. New vortex message will be out soon.

3068. Levi32
Quoting AlexEmmett:

that based of later data they just found 62sfc winds and 984 pressure


It's 984.7 which is rounded to 985 and the SFMR readings are suspect in these conditions...flight-level winds are the best thing to go by. So far Alex has maintained status quo for the last few hours.
Joanie's question was legitimate, anytime there is a trough digging, two highs that have not shown that they are verifying forecast positions or strength, and an upper level low approaching Florida (which really shouldn't have an effect much at that range), then a slight variation of the Tropical Forecast Points is something to at least be wary of, don't you think?
Quoting xcool:
Scenario 2 here


the NOAA is not budging on their track...
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
system is still strengthing at least pressure wise 73kt flight level is how much at the surface?


The winds will catch up to the pressure eventually. I'm off.
3072. xcool
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
Quoting Daveg:
Wow...what a split in the models..

Going to be interesting...
Link


Do you have another link?? This one says "Access Forbidden"
Quoting AlexEmmett:

that based of later data they just found 62sfc winds and 984 pressure
But it is moving finally slowly still but finally seeing a nnw/n motion.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


the NOAA is not budging on their track...

wow theyve got some balls
Lots of 60+ knot flight level wind readings, with more 70+ knot readings. Winds probably are now balanced with pressure since Alex is such a large system. Pretty much equal pressure last three fixes so he is holding his own for now. Now that he is moving away from possibly upwelled waters and shear is relaxing, he should pick up steam tomorrow and I expect gradual strengthening, with borderline cat 1-2 tomorrow night at this time.
Quoting Goldenblack:
Joanie's question was legitimate, anytime there is a trough digging, two highs that have not shown that they are verifying forecast positions or strength, and an upper level low approaching Florida (which really shouldn't have an effect much at that range), then a slight variation of the Tropical Forecast Points is something to at least be wary of, don't you think?


Thank you Goldenblack!! Sometimes I ma even AFRAID to ask any questions in fear of being a wishcaster when I am only trying to understand things....
Quoting AlexEmmett:

wow theyve got some balls


huh?
Quoting Joanie38:


Not northcasting just asking a question....nevermind, no more questions .....:(


Joanie it's fine to ask questions. It's also fine to give your opinion about a track if you want to. Just love the people who come on here gripe about the posts. But I don't know why they're freedom of blog speech is more ok than us "casters" They don't like caster posts I don't like griping posts.
Quoting Daveg:
Wow...what a split in the models..

Going to be interesting...
Link


Link says "Access forbidden". Mind uploading what you see to Tinypic or something?

0515 UTC GOES 13
Quoting xcool:
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
is that suspect or is it unflagged?
3083. xcool
NNW @ 8 mph
ROFL

Has anyone noticed this hilarious wording from the NHC in their 11:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook?

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290534
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BLANCA....WHICH HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 1045
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ALEX MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


They obviously meant "Celia", not "Blanca". :P
Levi, I have also plotted the NNW movement (with your animation loop help). If he were gaining strength a little faster, the outgoing trough might have more influence. As it is, looks like the scenario (and the weaker forecast intensity) is holding.....SO FAR.
3086. Or4590
alex move to nw
Quoting TexasHurricane:


huh?

with the stranth of the storm it going be close to a cat 3
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Joanie it's fine to ask questions. It's also fine to give your opinion about a track if you want to. Just love the people who come on here gripe about the posts. But I don't know why they're freedom of blog speech is more ok than us "casters" They don't like caster posts I don't like griping posts.


Yeah well homeless, when I want to ask something I sometimes I don't...besides..i've never been a wishcaster, northcaster, or any OTHER kind of "caster"....just here learning....I love this kind of stuff..:):)
Quoting KoritheMan:
ROFL

Has anyone noticed this hilarious wording from the NHC in their 11:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook?

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290534
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BLANCA....WHICH HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 1045
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ALEX MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


They obviously meant "Celia", not "Blanca". :P

haha
there is no split to the models either.
Quoting Or4590:
alex move to nw
NNW at 8mph a turn to the northwest will happen later today.
Quoting Levi32:
Alex is moving at about the same speed since the last vortex fix (2 hours ago), and his heading is now NNW at 340 degrees since the last fix. New vortex message will be out soon.

Starting to feel the ridge. Starting slow turn towards the nw.Up to 8mph from 4mph at 0300Z.
Quoting AlexEmmett:

wow theyve got some balls


More like they just plain out don't want to push the oil operation into closure unless they're sure Alex will affect it.
If you believe in the CLIPPER model...LOL
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Another thing, in meteorology you cannot use historical data. It is just extremely unreliable. How can you believe all conditions will be present for a storm to follow the track of a provious storm? what are the odds of that happening same steering currents located at the same place? You could use historical data just to get a rough idea of how many hurricanes could form if temperatures and a few other conditions are similar to previous years ie: this year looks sort of like 2005, but not quite there yet.


This. I've never understood people who say "This storm is just like storm X, so it will go to Y". Odds of every single variable that made a storm the size/strength/path it had being duplicated exactly at any other exact moment? I don't really see how that is useful at all, except to say "should all these event occur again exactly the same, THEN this might happen"
Quoting CaneAddict:


More like they just plain out don't want to push the oil operation into closure unless they're sure Alex will affect it.

effect it the thing is so large waves are going to push the oil
3098. pilatus
anyone seen the developing eye on visible?
Re: 3084

Anyone want to pitch-in to send them some more coffee over there?
Quoting Joanie38:


Yeah well homeless, when I want to ask something I sometimes I don't...besides..i've never been a wishcaster, northcaster, or any OTHER kind of "caster"....just here learning....I love this kind of stuff..:):)


I love it too. So don't be afraid to ask questions. This is a good place to learn. :)
3101. xcool
AlexEmmett:
hey '


'''
i'm back
Link

looks like a "split" to me...
Quoting jlp09550:


Looks like an eye forming on that loop
Quoting pilatus:
anyone seen the developing eye on visible?

yes
Hey xcool..:) How are you??
3106. Daveg
Yet more models clustering north of the border, with only a couple now south. Only time and many more model runs will tell I suppose.

Of course, the trend north has been more consistent over the last several runs, versus the back and forth bouncing around they did earlier today. If that means anything.

Quoting pilatus:
anyone seen the developing eye on visible?


Doubt there is a eye right now. It's too weak to produce an eye.
3108. xcool
Joanie38 .hey
Quoting Joanie38:


Yeah well homeless, when I want to ask something I sometimes I don't...besides..i've never been a wishcaster, northcaster, or any OTHER kind of "caster"....just here learning....I love this kind of stuff..:):)


I've lurked here for a long time, but probably have less than 10 posts, but I feel I can say, don't ever be afraid to post questions on here. The folks who know things always seem to be nice enough to answer serious questions. The folks that don't know things, well, they weren't going to give you a solid answer anyways ;)
3110. 7544
alex has a eye whats the blob to the north of alex
Quoting Daveg:
Yet more models clustering north of the border, with only a couple now south. Only time and many more model runs will tell I suppose.



WOW! See, we just never know..:)
Re: 3098

Yes, Alex has given us a few of those "false eyes" today. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't believe we have enough of a CDO yet to verify the formation of an eye. I know that the HH are not going through every second, but I didn't see any vortex message about eye formation either on Google Earth.

Joanie: keep asking those questions. I am a learner here too.

E
Quoting jlp09550:


Doubt there is a eye right now. It's too weak to produce an eye.

a weak cat 1 can have an eye
Quoting tristanh72:
Quoting tristanh72:

Yes thats very true :)
Quoting Levi32:
Alex is moving at about the same speed since the last vortex fix (2 hours ago), and his heading is now NNW at 340 degrees since the last fix. New vortex message will be out soon.



So the trough that was over four corners yesterday is not going to have an affect on steering?
3116. xcool
make 3 time , Alex have eyes
May not be an eye but does look like one
3118. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:
ROFL

Has anyone noticed this hilarious wording from the NHC in their 11:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook?

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290534
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BLANCA....WHICH HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 1045
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ALEX MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


They obviously meant "Celia", not "Blanca". :P


LOL
Quoting Levi32:


LOL

levi can weak cat one have eyes
Hi everyone,

I just took a moment to analyze the latest "visible" satellite imagery and one can clearly see that the COC of Alex is definitely moving in a NNW motion as of 1:15 am EDT (5:15 UTC).

One can also clearly see that the COC is right in line, if not just slightly W of the next forecast point. The key point to make is that the due N jog/wobble (i.e. temporary motion) has ceased and I suspect that the models will begin to cluster near the TX/MX border area in time.

At this time, it is still too early to make a definitive call as to whether it will make a landfall N or S of the TX/MX. border. That being said, I believe the probabilities are higher that it will come ashore just S of the border area. On the other hand, it is very important to remember that TC forecasting is an inexact science and this is simply the most probable scenario based on my own best educated guess.

Quoting Goldenblack:
Re: 3098

Yes, Alex has given us a few of those "false eyes" today. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't believe we have enough of a CDO yet to verify the formation of an eye. I know that the HH are not going through every second, but I didn't see any vortex message about eye formation either on Google Earth.

Joanie: keep asking those questions. I am a learner here too.

E


I want too..I like to learn all I can about tropical systems, you just never know what they are gonna do until the LAST minute..I have seen and track some that really have made some SURPRISE moves, but with Alex, who knows for sure....:)
0z EURO lands south of Brownsville.
It's been over 24 hrs since Alex emerged back over water and still little change in strength, little forward motion, just sitting out there not doing much of anything exciting. Stalled-out tropical cyclones are so frustrating to watch!! :-/
3124. Or4590
Euro south of Browsville
Did the GFDL drop WAY south all of a sudden?
Quoting Daveg:
Yet more models clustering north of the border, with only a couple now south. Only time and many more model runs will tell I suppose.

Of course, the trend north has been more consistent over the last several runs, versus the back and forth bouncing around they did earlier today. If that means anything.



Actually the only models you really need to watch is the GFDL,GFS and ECMWF...rest of models are usually hit or miss...but when they hit.. its when they are the same as the 3 mentioned above. Right now they are all south of 25N @ landfall .. between 23N and 25N. Will it go there? Not 100% but I'll say 80% chance it will. My best bet is 23.2-23.8N give or take 50 miles.
3127. xcool
south of Brownsville EURO=
post ecmwf plz thx
3129. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:


So the trough that was over four corners yesterday is not going to have an affect on steering?


No it is and is already helping break down the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico to its east. It's pretty much the tail-end of the main trough over the Great Lakes, but it kind of split off while it was over Arizona. It will be linking back up again with the main trough as it comes across the southern states.
3130. JLPR2
Well I had a good laugh after searching in the blogs for my old handle, lots of random comments there XD

Alex seems to be taking its time

3131. Or4590
look like mexico storm to me!
Quoting xcool:
south of Brownsville EURO=
Doesnt that put brownsville in the worst part of the storm.
3133. Levi32
Quoting AlexEmmett:

levi can weak cat one have eyes


Yes, even strong tropical storms can have eyes.

But....Alex doesn't have one yet.
3134. Levi32
What site do you all pay for that allows you to see the Euro this early every night.
what else is the ecm showing, eastern atlantic wise, of course, levi?
3136. xcool
alexhurricane1991 tell EURO that
Quoting btwntx08:
post ecmwf plz thx


Quoting Levi32:


Yes, even strong tropical storms can have eyes.

But....Alex doesn't have one yet.

OK THANKS DUDE
Link

This neat. Link from Pat. Shows surface wind and wave forecast. On the menu to the right click on wind and waves mike 21. Don't kow how accurate but interesting. :)
UK MET

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 91.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.06.2010 20.9N 91.7W MODERATE
12UTC 29.06.2010 22.4N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2010 23.8N 94.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2010 24.4N 96.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2010 25.2N 97.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.07.2010 25.8N 100.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.07.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
3141. xcool
SALAMETGRAD i just about posting it
3142. Or4590
it dry air affecting alex! no eye!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Doesnt that put brownsville in the worst part of the storm.

yes
Quoting CoopNTexas:
0z EURO lands south of Brownsville.


odd I cant pull up 0Z ECMWF.. do you have link?
Quoting Levi32:
What site do you all pay for that allows you to see the Euro this early every night.


LinkLink These sometimes earlier
o they're free
Quoting KoritheMan:
ROFL

Has anyone noticed this hilarious wording
link?
3147. Levi32
Quoting scottsvb:


odd I cant pull up 0Z ECMWF.. do you have link?


They pull this on me every night 40 minutes ahead of when I can get it.
alex is shown to be at 96.8 and 25.. this means 5 w and 3.4 N. That means to mantain the track it has to go WNW.. yet it continues jogging N and generally mover NNW.. I am fairly certain if it picks up forward speed it will be a Corpus storm.
3149. xcool
Levi32 .lol
3150. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:


LinkLink


That one I have and doesn't update for another 30 minutes at least.
I'm not sure everyone understands that the further north Alex goes, regardless if turns more west down the road, New Orleans will be getting SE winds from alex and from the high the east. This will push that oil deep into the marsh.
3152. xcool
i;m go back to website brb
Quoting jlp09550:


Doubt there is a eye right now. It's too weak to produce an eye.


It is important to remember that a strong TS can produce an eye-like COC. It doesn't have to achieve hurricane intensity to do so. Based on the 1515 UTC visible satellite imagery that I posted (in my previous post), you can clearly see the formation of a much better defined COC from which to track this system.
3154. Levi32
I guess they use plymouth state website but all the stuff I see people post from that site are things that are not linked to on the main page....probably hidden in a directory somewhere that I don't have the link to.
3155. Levi32
Initial burst collapsed but some new cells are going up.

Corrrection on my last post: SE winds
Quoting Levi32:


That one I have and doesn't update for another 30 minutes at least.


sorry i think the links mesed up. this is sometimes earlier Link
3158. xcool
Levi32 not plymouth
Quoting washingaway:
I'm not sure everyone understands that the further north Alex goes, regardless if turns more west down the road, New Orleans will be getting SW winds from alex and from the high the east. This will push that oil deep into the marsh.


Yes, I think it is true that not everyone is looking at that scenario. The whole situation is bad, nevermind a tropical system adding complication to the disaster. I really feel for those affected, and I am mad as I can be observing it happen.
Quoting CaneAddict:


Current conditions around Alex don't seem to be bothering him to much. He's done nothing but get better organized all night. I don't see it being affected much if at all from the slight deviations with the conditions that could normally cause problems with a developing hurricane. This is likely because alex is such a big system.


So does this mean you think that once Alex passes to more favorable conditions he should take off in intensity, but because he is such a large storm it might take some time? Were you agreeing with me? ;)
Well I guess I am out....Still seems it is going to the Brownsville area, so I guess we are in the clear (hopefully it won't get to strong for those who will be affected)...I will check back tomorrow to see if their are any changes. Nite all.
Sorry Levi. I posted that link before but thought you had it.
3163. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
Levi32 not plymouth


The early one you use ya it is.
Quoting Levi32:


The early one you use ya it is.


Plymouth is on the second link i posted and more source for it
3165. xcool
Levi32 i have 3 website
3167. Daveg
Wow...

These models are just ALL over the place. One run is north, next is south, then back north again..... rinse and repeat.

I don't think we're going to have any idea for quite some time. Especially if Alex just keeps sitting there and barely moving.

Time for sleep...maybe he'll make up his mind overnight! :-)
3168. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Sorry Levi. I posted that link before but thought you had it.


That's ok. I actually do have that one but thank you. I didn't see the plymouth one down on the bottom of that page though, and that's the one that updates earliest. At any rate....0z ECMWF shows landfall near Tampico, Mexico, still pretty far south compared to the other models.
Quoting Levi32:
I guess they use plymouth state website but all the stuff I see people post from that site are things that are not linked to on the main page....probably hidden in a directory somewhere that I don't have the link to.



Yeah I found it, I never really used that site much for the Euro.. I will I guess now since it does come out 1hr before hand (first 72hrs). You have to scroll down almost 1/2 the page
I'm a little confused - maybe someone can help me out.

The other night - I can't remember which one... the late-night models (I think it was the 1/2 a.m.) showed that Alex was going to head north. Many people mentioned that certain time models were not reliable at all (I think it was the late-night models).

Is this still the case? Is it different depending on whether it's a depression or a storm?

I will try to find the postings, but... that would definitely take a while.
UKMET 00z

Photobucket
3172. Or4590
alex look very ragged i not mpressed
Best models are GFDL,GFS,ECMWF only time to go by other models is if 1 of them above is heading a different path. Then you can see what the other global, HRW models show.

The LBAR,BAMN,BAMM and other tropical models are usually decent for weak storms like TDs or open troughs
Quoting Levi32:


That's ok. I actually do have that one but thank you. I didn't see the plymouth one down on the bottom of that page though, and that's the one that updates earliest. At any rate....0z ECMWF shows landfall near Tampico, Mexico, still pretty far south compared to the other models.


Yeah. Seems all our regular models we always look at are south of the border. Wherever it goes I hope it doesnt bottom out to a major.
Levi what UkMet model do you use?
3176. Levi32
Quoting Houstonia:
I'm a little confused - maybe someone can help me out.

The other night - I can't remember which one... the late-night models (I think it was the 1/2 a.m.) showed that Alex was going to head north. Many people mentioned that certain time models were not reliable at all (I think it was the late-night models).

Is this still the case? Is it different depending on whether it's a depression or a storm?

I will try to find the postings, but... that would definitely take a while.


The models have been doing poorly with Alex so far but these 0z runs are supposed to have G-4 dropsonde data in them making them a bit more accurate. It is looking like potential landfall may be leaning more towards northern Mexico based on these runs, but they have flip-flopped a lot before and nothing is set in stone yet. We'll have to see how Alex moves compared to the model and NHC forecast tracks overnight.

As for intensity....that's an iffy one. A strong hurricane is more likely to feel the weakness in the ridge and move toward it, but Alex's massive size makes him able to possibly pump the ridge to his north, helping to take him west. How these factors balance out remains to be seen. Overall I don't think his intensity will have a major impact on track.
levi, what are your prospects for july?
if its has it near tampico then it should be going wnw now which is not so ecmwf went off this run even if its real good
3179. xcool
btwntx08 :)
3180. Levi32
Quoting scottsvb:
Levi what UkMet model do you use?


FSU site and Accuweather. Accuweather only has the 0z runs of it but all the way out to 120 hours.
Quoting Or4590:
alex look very ragged i not mpressed

not ragged sry
Quoting Levi32:


FSU site and Accuweather. Accuweather only has the 0z runs of it but all the way out to 120 hours.



post link to what you have. I have a unregisterd link that I cant access @ home. I could go into ruskin and ask them...but since I dont work there.. they would tell me NO! lol
3184. Levi32
0z ECMWF initialized a little bit too far southwest, but shows a due NW motion for the first 24 hours, not WNW. The difference is it doesn't take Alex nearly as far north before getting forced west.
Quoting Levi32:


The models have been doing poorly with Alex so far but these 0z runs are supposed to have G-4 dropsonde data in them making them a bit more accurate.


Thanks Levi
3186. Levi32
Quoting scottsvb:



post link to what you have. I have a unregisterd link that I cant access @ home. I could go into ruskin and ask them...but since I dont work there.. they would tell me NO! lol


This is FSU, but it usually only gets out to 54 hours before shutting you down with undefined grids. The Accuweather models come from the Pro site which you have to pay for. Otherwise the UKMET is hard to come by.

Meteo France also has the UKMET for North America only, but it can get out to 144 hours if it works properly. 0z run is updating right now out to 72 hours.
Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.

I live in the DFW area, and I've gotta say, my thoughts are like yours. I've analyzed lots of animated water vapor maps (which is a great tool to observe the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere in my opinion) and I'm inclined to think it'll continue its run, poleward into Texas.
When you look at the map, you can see where the front bent southward, and you can't help but think that Alex has played an impact on that. So, perhaps the "attractiveness" between the two will play out. Also add in that our weather pattern has certainly been changing for really the last week (where a capping high pressure has given way to instability, with a more inviting lower pressure.) Normally, under these circumstances, cold fronts like this would have stalled out at the Red River, and not made it into DFW or southward. (If you live here and know the weather around here then you know what I'm talking about.) If Alex had formed last week and had been in the same position, I would have said, "nope, its going to Mexico." But this is different. Mix in the fact that there are more models aiming Alex up here, and I'd say that there's a good chance that Alex will migrate more northward into Texas.

What I find intriguing is how large of a loose, clockwise circulation exists around Alex. It stretches around Alex to the west into Mexico, northward into Texas, and east and then south east into Florida. (All of course while the center of Alex spins counter-clockwise, trying to tighten things up.) The ULL that is where 94L once lived, is a very nice "mate" to Alex's circulation. Look at the two in a water vapor map, and you'll see what I'm talking about.

So, my thoughts are, Alex has the appearance of an "obese" storm. Its like Ike after it hit Cuba, in terms of being too big for its own good. Except in this case that effect seems to be greater, because it has less strength going in and coming out of its recent landfall while it still has as lot of distant circulating bands that it can't handle. So, if it does come up here, we'll certainly continue to see its effects (with a direct hit or not.) The other is that, despite the favorable conditions, I think its going to lag in becoming really organized until late in the game.

We'll just have to see, as this is a unique storm, and hence the diversity in the "opinions" of the computer models.
3188. xcool


3189. Levi32
Recon leaving the system now and heading home. Last vortex message shows little evidence of a good core, but pressure is still down steady at 985 with 73kt flight-level winds supporting the 55kt advisory intensity.

000
URNT12 KNHC 290558
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 29/05:25:50Z
B. 21 deg 25 min N
091 deg 47 min W
C. 925 mb 555 m
D. 37 kt
E. 216 deg 12 nm
F. 304 deg 34 kt
G. 216 deg 14 nm
H. EXTRAP 985 mb
I. 23 C / 760 m
J. 23 C / 761 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0701A ALEX OB 16
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 05:40:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 217 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 05:40:30Z
;
3190. Or4590
Quoting btwntx08:

not ragged sry


it not look very good imo
3191. xcool
hmm
wow in the last few frames it has jogged due west.. has anyone else noticed it.. I think the next update the movement will change to wnw.
Quoting samiam1234:
wow in the last few frames it has jogged due west.. has anyone else noticed it.. I think the next update the movement will change to wnw.


It's a jog, just like you said. They base movement off either a 6 or 12 hour period. Levi might could help you on that one. I think it's 12, though.

Hey, Levi...Check your mail!

3194. JLPR2
You guys know there is a new blog, right? XD
3195. xcool
ha
3196. xcool
new BLOG
Hello,

I see official Track NHC and ADT position and its moving still north. So probably Alex go some miles north of oficcial forecast. South of Texas.

With google maps oficial forecast pass Throug 91º52' W and ADT position is 91º42' W.
Quoting Levi32:


This is FSU, but it usually only gets out to 54 hours before shutting you down with undefined grids. The Accuweather models come from the Pro site which you have to pay for. Otherwise the UKMET is hard to come by.

Meteo France also has the UKMET for North America only, but it can get out to 144 hours if it works properly. 0z run is updating right now out to 72 hours.


There's also this (western corner of the screen).
3199. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's also this (western corner of the screen).


Oh ya forgot about that one.

New blog everyone.
So I just shuttled my brother off to Panama from Houston international. I hope he was able to take some pictures in flight, but I don't know yet. Anyway, my family lives in central Texas, but I live in northern Minnesota. I've been visiting for a month or so, and I'm thinking that tomorrow is a good day to drive back north. If I wait until later, I get caught in 4th traffic. If I wait until after, I am afraid I will get caught up in hurricane leftovers also traveling north.

Sorry if I sound callous. I don't mean to. But my family will be safe and is already prepped for disasters. I have no worries about them.

What do the wunderbloggers think? Get out now? Or spend another week with my wonderful family?
Quoting shakaka:


It's probably because the people who make the decisions about what goes on these exams were liberal arts majors and have no way of knowing how right you are.
Actually it's prolly because pple were doing fine with the maths when they got to college (i.e. high correlation between math score and college math scores) but were completely unable to write based on the verbal scores. The writing tests ability to EXPRESS ideas logically and clearly; the verbal only tests one's ability to UNDERSTAND ideas logically and clearly presented. What was happening was pple were coming to college not being able to write what they meant, and considering how much of what one produces in college has to be written coherently, that was creating a serious problem.
3202. WxLogic
Good morning...
Potential Intensity

Combined with actual data from measurements, little or no change in SST due to upwelling. In fact, SST's have actually increased in the center of the Gulf for the past 3 days.
3204. Patrap
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts

3205. Patrap

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

3206. Patrap