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Alex Becomes the Atlantic’s First January Hurricane Since 1955

By: Bob Henson 5:19 PM GMT on January 14, 2016

History spun up over the far reaches of the Northeast Atlantic on Thursday, as Subtropical Storm Alex carved out a distinct eye within a core of intense thunderstorms, making it Hurricane Alex. The 10 am EST advisory from the National Hurricane Center put Alex’s sustained winds at 85 mph. Alex was located about 500 miles south of Faial Island in the Azores, moving north-northeast at 20 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores. Given the strong steering currents driving Alex, there is high confidence that at least some of the central Azores will experience tropical storm or hurricane-force wind, heavy rain, and high surf. To get a hurricane making landfall in the Azores any time of year is quite unusual (about once per 10-20 years); to get a landfall in January would be truly remarkable.

In records going back to 1851, only two hurricanes are known to have prowled the Atlantic during the month of January: an unnamed tropical storm that became Hurricane One on January 4, 1938, and Hurricane Alice, which maintained hurricane strength from December 31, 1954, to January 4, 1955. Alice topped out at 90 mph, so Alex is officially the second strongest January hurricane on record in the Atlantic. {Note: I've corrected the strength of Alice in line with its upgrade from 70 knots to 80 knots in the recently-released 1951-1955 best-track update to NOAA's HURDAT2 database. Thanks to WU contributor @philklotzbach for this catch.] Much like Alice, another tropical cyclone--Tropical Storm Zeta of 2005/06--formed in December and extended into January, and a tropical storm was recorded in early January 1951. There was also a subtropical storm in January 1978.


Figure 1. Infrared image of Hurricane Alex at 15Z (10:00 am EST) Thursday, January 14, 2016. Image credit: UW/CIMMS/SSEC.

A chilly hurricane
Designated a subtropical storm on Wednesday, Alex took on a surprisingly healthy structure overnight, with a symmetric core of showers and thunderstorms around its clear-cut eye. Sea-surface temperatures beneath Alex are only around 20-22°C (68-72°F). Although these are up to 1°C above average for this time of year, they are far cooler than usually required for tropical cyclone development. However, upper-level temperatures near Alex are unusually cold for the latitude, which means that instability--driven by the contrast between warm, moist lower levels and cold, drier upper levels--is higher than it would otherwise be. That instability allowed showers and thunderstorms to blossom and consolidate, strengthening the warm core that makes Alex a hurricane as opposed to an extratropical or subtropical storm.

Alex’s unusual life as a January hurricane will be a short one. The system is already accelerating northward ahead of a strong upper-level trough, and by late Friday it should be a powerful post-tropical low racing toward Greenland. Even though Alex will become absorbed in the higher-latitude storm system, its warm, moist air may assist in pushing temperatures over parts of Greenland more than 35°F above average this weekend into early next week.


Figure 2. WU forecast map for Hurricane Alex based on National Hurricane Center predicted positions issued at 10 am EST Thursday, January 14, 2016.

Hurricane Pali weakens to a tropical depression near equator
Late Wednesday was the first time in the modern era of tropical cyclone observing and prediction that we had simultaneous named systems in January in the Atlantic (Alex) and Central Pacific (Pali)--or, for that matter, anywhere in the Pacific. Pali is the earliest named storm and earliest hurricane on record between the International Date Line and the Americas. It reached Category 2 strength (85 knots or 100 mph) on Tuesday. While Alex was strengthening into a hurricane on Wednesday night, Pali was falling apart. By Thursday morning, Pali had decayed into Tropical Depression Pali, located at 173.0°W and just 2.5°N. Now experiencing moderate to strong wind shear, Pali should be history within the next few hours. Very few tropical cyclones have made it as close to the equator as Pali, since they normally rely on the Corilis force (which is stronger at higher latitudes) to give them a cyclonic spin. Only two other tropical cyclones have been known to make it within 2° latitude of the equator. When it formed south of 5°N latitude on January 7, Pali became the first tropical cyclone known to have existed in any of the equatorial regions used to monitor El Niño sea-surface conditions.

Which year should Alex and Pali belong to?
One might argue that Alex and Pali are actually straggler storms from the 2015 Atlantic and Central Pacific seasons, rather than the first storms of 2016. Tropical sea-surface temperatures north of the equator typically bottom out around March, so there might be some physical rationale for defining the Central/Northeast Pacific and Atlantic hurricane “years” as being from March 1 to February 28/29. In practice, though, there are very few tropical cyclones in January and February, so in most years this switch would make no difference, and it could foster public confusion. There is a much stronger physical rationale for the practice of straddling hurricane seasons across calendar years in the Southern Hemisphere, where summer arrives in late December and cyclones often form before January 1.

Hurricane Alice from 1954-55 is an interesting case in itself. It was originally recognized as a hurricane and named Alice on January 2, 1955. At that point, the same lists were being used from year to year, and there had already been a deadly Hurricane Alice in June 1954. However, post-storm analysis determined that the latter Alice had been a hurricane on December 31, 1954--which makes 1954 the Atlantic’s only year that has two hurricanes with the same name.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Pali as it was approaching hurricane strength at 2230Z (5:30 pm EST) on Monday, January 11, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Well, come tomorrow, if Alex is still named, it will be the first time in my 56 years that we have a Named Storm on my Birthday, Jan 15th.

The cake should be awesome.
Great article! So exciting seeing a hurricane in January. La Nina perhaps?
Thanks for the explanation on hurricane formation and SSTs, very interesting storm to say the least.
Thanks, Bob!
I may transfer the animation below from the end of last blog as it is worth watching. Click to get the loop:

Using a long animation of GOES-13 6.5 Water Vapor images covering the 06-13 January period, the origination of Subtropical Storm Alex could be traced back to a strong mid-latitude cyclone that moved off the southeast coast of the US. Source: CIMSS Satellite Blog
A hurricane hitting the Azores is incredible stuff by itself, but in January? Unreal.

Even though Alex will become absorbed in the higher-latitude storm system, its warm, moist air may assist in pushing temperatures over parts of Greenland more than 35°F above average this weekend into early next week.
Thanks for this short and informative read.
As Mr Henson said, apart from Alex, another thing will be worth watching in the next few days. From the new entry:
"Even though Alex will become absorbed in the higher-latitude storm system, its warm, moist air may assist in pushing temperatures over parts of Greenland more than 35F above average this weekend into early next week."

Today:
Awesome blog Dr. Alex is truly one remarkable system, possibly becoming a category 2 as we speak. I'm just gunna go ahead and believe this guy has a legit shot at being a major. I'm through with logic-ing.
Thanks Mr. Henson..Healthy looking hurricane, especially for Mid January..:)

Quoting 2. Camerooski:

Great article! So exciting seeing a hurricane in January. La Nina perhaps?


The 2016 hurricane season may be the one that comes bearing tropical misery to many if La Nina conditions take hold after June.
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Well, come tomorrow, if Alex is still named, it will be the first time in my 56 years that we have a Named Storm on my Birthday, Jan 15th.

The cake should be awesome.


Happy Birthday, Pat. It looks a little like Alex

Windy times around this low:

Quoting 1. Patrap:

Well, come tomorrow, if Alex is still named, it will be the first time in my 56 years that we have a Named Storm on my Birthday, Jan 15th.

The cake should be awesome.


Happy birthday!! tomorrow Patrap
MODIS Band 3-6-7 colorized high resolution image of Alex, a rare January Atlantic hurricane

(Tyvm Claudette1234)

Quoting 1. Patrap:

Well, come tomorrow, if Alex is still named, it will be the first time in my 56 years that we have a Named Storm on my Birthday, Jan 15th.

The cake should be awesome.

Consider Alex the icing on the cake.
Quoting 12. Grothar:



Happy Birthday, Pat. It looks a little like Alex




I like it, thanx Padner'
Climate change ‘made record UK rainfall in December more likely

Study finds global warming made Britain 50-75% more likely to receive catastrophic rainfall that caused floods, but natural variation also played a role

“Greenhouse gas emissions are loading the weather dice towards these warmer, wetter winters,” said Friederike Otto, scientific coordinator of the climateprediction.net project, which harnessed the collective power of roughly 70,000 home computers to run thousands of climate models extremely quickly.

LinkLink
NORTH AMERICA'S LARGEST RIVER RECORD WARM: Measurements taken from June to November in 2015 show that Saint Lawrence River was record warm. It is North America's largest river by flow.

Link
My birthday is on Aug. 24th, so I'm in the heat of hurricane season. It's also the landfall date for Hurricane Andrew hitting Florida.
Due to the death and destruction associated with Hurricane Andrew, I can't consider it a birthday present. But Andrew made my birthday very exciting.

Invest 98P, blobing, banding and organizing. It's gonna earn a better name for itself, isn't it?
Quoting 17. Patrap:

MODIS Band 3-6-7 colorized high resolution image of Alex, a rare January Atlantic hurricane

(Tyvm Claudette1234)


nice image well structured storm true hurricane minus warm sst's
Doom, I tell you, dooooom awaits us. :-)
... If you ain't scared yet, or if you ain't scared enough because of the "ticking methane bomb threat":
Ice sheets may be hiding vast reservoirs of powerful greenhouse gas (new CAGE study results, these findings were published last week in Nature Communications under the title "Ice-sheet-driven methane storage and release in the Arctic".)Link
Also, good news for NOAA and the public: Lockheed Martin Team Delivers Second Lightning Tracker for NOAA Weather Satellite. Link
Thank you Mr. Henson!
Well Thank you so much for letting us in on the news Bob.
I wonder how many people commenting on here would have predicted or even dreamed that something like this might drift or open into the history books for 2016.
Meanwhile its going to be a bit of a rough ride for the Azores.

I wonder if this might just have something to do with it?

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A Nd9GcTM1wtBtNSqeyfPYIoiBk9WMwlPj2avjKe6UpQyxpZQ-WJ XLJyE

Link

Quoting 15. Grothar:


Looks like a monster


Best godzilla movie! imo
By the looks of this loop going back to November 2015, El Nino's warm pool is shrinking in size, pretty quickly. Might be an earlier start to Neutral ENSO conditions, just in time probably for the heart, or maybe even the beginning of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. IMHO



barb, watching that loop i wish i could see what is coming from the west...it seems like the east coast in going to be in for a one two punch over the weekend, loads of energy over the lower 48!
A desfile of storms.


Quoting 33. Grothar:

A desfile of storms.



Un desfile de tormentas.
Quoting 23. 999Ai2016:


Invest 98P, blobing, banding and organizing. It's gonna earn a better name for itself, isn't it?

Yes. Wary for this good looking baby.
Quoting 34. Gearsts:

Un desfile de tormentas.

*défilé
(tormented lol)
After passing through the Leeward Islands on January 2, 1955, Alice reached peak winds of 90 mph (150 km/h) before encountering cold air and turning to the southeast. It dissipated on January 6 over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

One more crazy thing about Alex, it's headed to Greenland.
Just dropping in.Alex has continued to improve his appearance and a strong ring of convection has developed around the eye wall.I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump at all in intensity when the next advisory comes out.What a strange little fellow.We couldn't even get Erika to intensify in the MDR region in August a prime month for the atlantic but little Alex is having no trouble at all in the northern atlantic in JANUARY.
Hey Pat - What's your snow forecast looking like?
Quoting 15. Grothar:


uh oh!
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

Just dropping in.Alex has continued to improve his appearance and a strong ring of convection has developed around the eye wall.I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump at all in intensity when the next advisory comes out.What a strange little fellow.We couldn't even get Erika to intensify in the MDR region in August a prime month for the atlantic but little Alex is having no trouble at all in the northern atlantic in JANUARY.


Seems ironic... and scary that the norm may not be the norm much longer.
Quoting 296. washingtonian115:

I thought we learned.....


Definitely. If the Euro doesn't show it, it shouldn't be bought.
12Z Euro & GFS is showing strong surface winds of 30mph to 45mph from Tampa to Orlando Sunday morning with drivings rains and possible severe thunderstorms. Very active pattern now across FL and its important that residents in C & S FL take heed of any tornado warnings that may come out tomorrow and on Sunday.

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson....
ECMWF 12z is warm and has cutoff low 216 hrs out. Possible from it's SW bias.
Quoting 45. Drakoen:

ECMWF 12z is warm and has cutoff low 216 hrs out. Possible from it's SW bias.
Do you want a big winter storm?
Quoting 46. hydrus:


Im sorry to say this but this has to be close to a cat 3 at least. This thing is structured perfectly. i wouldn't be surprised if its 100mph to 105 by the next advisory
Quoting 50. bigwes6844:

Im sorry to say this but this has to be close to a cat 3 at least. This thing is structured perfectly. i wouldn't be surprised if its 100mph to 105 by the next advisory


Advisory 4a put it at 85.
Quoting 37. RobertWC:

After passing through the Leeward Islands on January 2, 1955, Alice reached peak winds of 90 mph (150 km/h) before encountering cold air and turning to the southeast. It dissipated on January 6 over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

One more crazy thing about Alex, it's headed to Greenland.


Good to see you have your Helicopter back Bob.
Its a good job for Europe its going to Greenland as if it were heading the same course but to the east there would be an awful lot of problems in Europe.
As it is the Azores will be in for some very bad weather.
I wrote a few days ago that I thought that I thought we might get strange recurves towards Europe this year, I'm glad this is not the first of them.
Meanwhile a bit like the Zero temps at the north pole a short time ago, this is going to be interesting to watch.
Quoting 49. hydrus:


starting to see that redish color on the outta skirts of the storm now.
Quoting 45. Drakoen:

ECMWF 12z is warm and has cutoff low 216 hrs out. Possible from it's SW bias.


Not looking good for you guys up there this Winter and poor JB whining everyday now on weatherbell because his snowstorms just aren't materializing especially since we are already halfway thru January. Infact it may get even worse for you snow prospect going forward with El-Nino re-strengthening as a result of this record WWB. There is also a new OKW developing but after this warm burst in sea surface anomalies expect El-Nino to decline come April and beyond toward neutral conditions.
Quoting 53. bigwes6844:

starting to see that redish color on the outta skirts of the storm now.
What does that mean?
Quoting 50. bigwes6844:

Im sorry to say this but this has to be close to a cat 3 at least. This thing is structured perfectly. i wouldn't be surprised if its 100mph to 105 by the next advisory

If you are right about the intensification, then with that path you posted things in the Azores will probably be fatal as they may have experience of strong gales but this is a different story altogether, sadly.
Quoting 43. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro & GFS is showing strong surface winds of 30mph to 45mph from Tampa to Orlando Sunday morning with drivings rains and possible severe thunderstorms. Very active pattern now across FL and its important that residents in C & S FL take heed of any tornado warnings that may come out tomorrow and on Sunday.




The WPC seems to think Sunday will get more active than Friday Scott. Some of these thunderstorms coming ashore from the Gulf might have some rotation to them.
Quoting 50. bigwes6844:

Im sorry to say this but this has to be close to a cat 3 at least. This thing is structured perfectly. i wouldn't be surprised if its 100mph to 105 by the next advisory


i agree by the looks, this looks like a Category 2 with 95-100mph at least.
Quoting 54. StormTrackerScott:



Not looking good for you guys up there this Winter and poor JB whining everyday now on weatherbell because his snowstorms just aren't materializing especially since we are already halfway thru January. Infact it may get even worse for you snow prospect going forward with El-Nino re-strengthening as a result of this record WWB. There is also a new OKW developing but after this warm burst in sea surface anomalies expect El-Nino to decline come April and beyond toward neutral conditions.


True although I think the ECMWF is showing it's medium range bias. Not saying that the GFS is correct as it seems it will botch an earlier prediction that was within 5 days for this upcoming Sunday.
Quoting 52. PlazaRed:


Good to see you have your Helicopter back Bob.
Its a good job for Europe its going to Greenland as if it were heading the same course but to the east there would be an awful lot of problems in Europe.
As it is the Azores will be in for some very bad weather.
I wrote a few days ago that I thought that I thought we might get strange recurves towards Europe this year, I'm glad this is not the first of them.
Meanwhile a bit like the Zero temps at the north pole a short time ago, this is going to be interesting to watch.

Years of munching popcorn interspersed with phases of paralysed jaw muscles as events unfold. Like Patricia, Chapala to name just another two within the category.
Something of note, neutral or La Niña years haven't been any less eventful compared to e.g. 2015 but produced different events e.g. 'Year of the Twister', Texas drought, Russo-Ukraine inferno, Haiyan, RRR, Arctic ice (land and sea) decline..
Quoting 59. Drakoen:



True although I think the ECMWF is showing it's medium range bias. Not saying that the GFS is correct as it seems it will botch an earlier prediction that was within 5 days for this upcoming Sunday.
Hello Drak..WWB ,OKW or both, I do not believe Nino will get that much of a boost. There are signs that it is already loosing some of its punch..
Quoting 56. PlazaRed:


If you are right about the intensification, then with that path you posted things in the Azores will probably be fatal as they may have experience of strong gales but this is a different story altogether, sadly.
Greetings Red..If i lived on the Azores ( especially West ) I would watch this close..Could still be dangerous there.
Quoting 53. bigwes6844:

starting to see that redish color on the outta skirts of the storm now.
Yep..Notice that large feeder band wrapping around to the south..Impressive.
Quoting 50. bigwes6844:

Im sorry to say this but this has to be close to a cat 3 at least. This thing is structured perfectly. i wouldn't be surprised if its 100mph to 105 by the next advisory
The NHC says it's still at 85 mph. Where exactly are you getting that loop? It's five hours old and looks a lot different than the visible from the GOES East loop.


Talking about a Hurricane strike... on a land area... with Hurricane warnings....in the Atlantic...in January...
Meanwhile, back home...

The tropical cyclone report for Joaquin has been released.Looks like he stays as a category 4 hurricane.
Link
Alex at the upper right..

Looks like the mess in the GOM is about to be a big player for the east coast in a few days
We may see a landfalling January hurricane...

12z Euro is now showing snow for Charlotte on Sunday while the GFS has backed off..

these models within a 3 day window are awful..
Hmm......

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1m1 minute ago
Eric Blake Retweeted Philip Klotzbach
Roughly equal odds for #LaNina or neutral in the heart of #hurricane season (August-October) in 2016.
Quoting 21. DCSwithunderscores:

NORTH AMERICA'S LARGEST RIVER RECORD WARM: Measurements taken from June to November in 2015 show that Saint Lawrence River was record warm. It is North America's largest river by flow.

Link

I always assumed the Mississippi had the largest flow. Thanks for the info.




Quoting 69. RitaEvac:

Looks like the mess in the GOM is about to be a big player for the east coast in a few days


Expecting some strong thunderstorms here (S.W. Florida) once we get into the warm sector after the warm front pushes north of the area.
Then the cold front should push through later in the day on Friday.
For the past couple days we've been stuck in really cool air (temps only in the 50s and 60s), but we're expecting a quick warm up with temps in the upper 70s tomorrow.
Strange days have found us
Strange days have tracked us down
They’re going to destroy
Our casual joys
We shall go on playing
Or find a new town

Alex over the Azores tomorrow 12z UTC according to HWRF with 973mb and up to 60kt winds; source.


"Euro" and GFS reckon Alex much weaker at this time.
Quoting 57. tampabaymatt:



The WPC seems to think Sunday will get more active than Friday Scott. Some of these thunderstorms coming ashore from the Gulf might have some rotation to them.
There are still some pretty significant differences between the three major models unfortunately. The GFS is faster with the low further south, the GFS is slower with the low closer to central Florida, while the CMC has a weaker low more toward the Big Bend area. It's getting a little frustrating not having better model agreement for a system three days out but that seems to be the script with this El Nino. The exact placement of the low will determine if I get no rain, a little rain, or more significant rain. The SPC seems to hedging their bets by maintaining the same area of marginal risk from Tampa south for day 2 and day 3. About all we can do is track the low currently off the south Texas coast and see where it goes. It's at 1013 mb and has some lighting, so that will be the seed of whatever gets here Sunday.
Quoting 39. Dakster:

Hey Pat - What's your snow forecast looking like?


Sneaux is of the Devil I hear.

No Sneaux forecasted here as of Noon.

Quoting 71. ncstorm:

12z Euro is now showing snow for Charlotte on Sunday while the GFS has backed off..

these models within a 3 day window are awful..


The triad might still see some snow overnight Saturday into Sunday, last I saw anyway
Quoting 62. hydrus:

Greetings Red..If i lived on the Azores ( especially West ) I would watch this close..Could still be dangerous there.

HY Hydrus.
Looks like they are about 200 miles across and as we know volcanic.
This should produce some nasty flash flooding over the whole zone.
Very rocky, so as long as nobody is foolish enough to be on the beaches then the rainwater will probably be the main threat, along with any boulders it can collect on the way downhill.
I'm sure the Spanish news will have something to say about it all in an hour or so.
Meanwhile I have no real knowledge of Portuguese but I'm sure anybody from Brazil will be able to keep us updated on the situation and a lot of people in Portugal speak English.
They must be hoping mad at the thought of what this could do if it gets any stronger.
I imagine sometimes the devastation that a Hurricane could do on the Atlantic coasts of Spain and Portugal with all the beach bars and little overbuilt tourist towns. At least its mainly off season for visitors now.

Link
Quoting 72. washingtonian115:

Hmm......

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1m1 minute ago
Eric Blake Retweeted Philip Klotzbach
Roughly equal odds for #LaNina or neutral in the heart of #hurricane season (August-October) in 2016.


See comment #30.
82. RayT
Hurricane Alex. I know a lot of people dont believe it, but if you look back there was another hurricane(I think in 2005) that also hit the Azores a number of years back that formed over cooler waters. I know tropical Genesis typically starts at temperatures above 25 C but I suspect that tropical transition (extratropical to tropical) can happen at a lower temperature if the existing storm has sufficient energy.

Perhaps this could be a topic for Mr. Masters in the coming weeks.
Quoting 82. RayT:

Hurricane Alex. I know a lot of people dont believe it, but if you look back there was another hurricane(I think in 2005) that also hit the Azores a number of years back that formed over cooler waters. I know tropical Genesis typically starts at temperatures above 25 C but I suspect that tropical transition (extratropical to tropical) can happen at a lower temperature if the existing storm has sufficient energy.

Perhaps this could be a topic for Mr. Masters in the coming weeks.
I think it was Hurricane Vince.
Quoting 69. RitaEvac:

Looks like the mess in the GOM is about to be a big player for the east coast in a few days
The CMC is the most aggressive with that scenario, taking the Gulf low inland over Georgia and then up the East Coast. The ECMWF keeps the low further offshore while the GFS takes it completely offshore after traversing Florida, and never turning north. Given model performance so far, I don't put much faith in any solution at this point.
Quoting 73. ACSeattle:


I always assumed the Mississippi had the largest flow. Thanks for the info.



Wikipedia has the Mississippi ahead of the St Lawrence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rivers_by_d ischarge

But google tells me "Mississippi River discharge" is 593,000 cubic feet per second and St Lawrence River is 593,300! Basically a tie.
Poor JB? Thought we were in an active pattern for Central Fl in December and nothing happened.
Cloudtops around the eye of Alex have been warming over the past 2 hours. We're probably past its peak of 75-80kt.


Quoting 75. RobertWC:

Strange days have found us
Strange days have tracked us down
They%u2019re going to destroy
Our casual joys
We shall go on playing
Or find a new town


Strange days indeed
Quoting 60. cRRKampen:


Years of munching popcorn interspersed with phases of paralysed jaw muscles as events unfold. ...

Hey, Mr. Kampen, isn't there the center of an European cyclone swirling over your head right now? It's "Emma" btw. Winds with more than 100 km/h over the Channel and approaching the Netherlands ...


Source for updates.




Surface map for tomorrow.
Quoting 80. PlazaRed:


HY Hydrus.
Looks like they are about 200 miles across and as we know volcanic.
This should produce some nasty flash flooding over the whole zone.
Very rocky, so as long as nobody is foolish enough to be on the beaches then the rainwater will probably be the main threat, along with any boulders it can collect on the way downhill.
I'm sure the Spanish news will have something to say about it all in an hour or so.
Meanwhile I have no real knowledge of Portuguese but I'm sure anybody from Brazil will be able to keep us updated on the situation and a lot of people in Portugal speak English.
They must be hoping mad at the thought of what this could do if it gets any stronger.
I imagine sometimes the devastation that a Hurricane could do on the Atlantic coasts of Spain and Portugal with all the beach bars and little overbuilt tourist towns. At least its mainly off season for visitors now.

Link
There was a subtropical storm in 2005 that hit the Azores in October. It would have been Tammy if it had been recognized as subtropical storm during the season rather than only after reanalysis. The path looks like it it will be somewhat similar to Alex. The wind may be higher depending on the exact track and strength of Alex as it moves through the islands. The subtropical storm produced no fatalities and very little damage so maybe the results will be similar for Alex. One can only hope.
hey guys sorry for not being on earlier
I was away on international conference call talking about Hurricane Alex for like 3 hrs
"Alex Becomes the Atlantic’s First January Hurricane Since 1955."
I suppose we can revert to the once in 60 years terms now for a while?
Probably wont be 60 years until the next one!

Meanwhile the Azores do have an history of near hurricane events and of course, we did have the virtual hurricane back last year off the coast of Spain, which went on to make a mess of the nice clean streets of the Canary islands.
A blogger from the Eastern Europe wrote a bloglet (new term) on it. I read it all with charts etc and it was very good but I cant remember his name, a metrology student I think, he'll be having fun with this event for sure.

Needless to say, none of the hurricanes, near hurricanes or possible hurricanes in history occurred in the Azores in January! So back to the drawing board, beach hut or local bar for the next theory's on this event. Record books are no good as there aren't any.

Meanwhile the Spanish national news has been cancelled due to a football match being played somewhere. Needless to say they will have short news not at 9.20 pm and just maybe they will mention Alex.
Quoting 86. sonofagunn:



Wikipedia has the Mississippi ahead of the St Lawrence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rivers_by_d ischarge

But google tells me "Mississippi River discharge" is 593,000 cubic feet per second and St Lawrence River is 593,300! Basically a tie.
The St. Lawrence is a huge river, 1,900 miles long, and collects all the waters from the Great Lakes, sending them to the Atlantic. I'm not surprised that the St. Lawrence and Mississippi are in a dead heat for discharge. The biggest difference is how wide and deep the St. Lawrence is compared to the Mississippi. German submarines were able to sink ships almost to the mouth of the Saguenay River in WWII, a distance of almost 200 miles. It presented a whole set of unanticipated problems to the Canadian and US navies, and the threat of submarine attacks wasn't completely stopped until late 1943.


3 named storm in January 14th at same time never see that before.
Let's just take in this rare and historical moment folks and marvel at it.You don't get to see a hurricane at this latitude headed for the Azores in January.
Quoting 93. PlazaRed:

Meanwhile the Spanish national news has been cancelled due to a football match being played somewhere. Needless to say they will have short news not at 9.20 pm and just maybe they will mention Alex.
There's a lot of coverage over here, with stories on all the major networks, CNN, and Fox. Also many stories on the internet. Maybe it's time to give up on Spanish news. :-)
CMC forecast for 12Z tomorrow. By 18Z is shows a solid line of storms moving across south Florida.
Quoting 97. Claudette1234:



3 named storm in January 14th at same time never see that before.
There are only two, TD Pali and Hurricane Alex. The low doesn't have a name. It looks like Pali doesn't have much more time before it will also not have a name.
Has Alex peaked or is it likely still strengthening?
Quoting 92. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys sorry for not being on earlier
I was away on international conference call talking about Hurricane Alex for like 3 hrs
3 hours for Alex? For what agencies? I didn't realize the UK had any responsibilities in the Azores.
Quoting 101. sar2401:

There are only two, TD Pali and Hurricane Alex. The low doesn't have a name. It looks like Pali doesn't have much more time before it will also not have a name.


The low is PALI,

So PALI TS SEVEN and Hurricane ALEX.
Quoting 102. HurricaneFan:

Has Alex peaked or is it likely still strengthening?
Given that the cloud tops are starting to warm, it's probably a little past its peak.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 46m46 minutes ago
Vertically integrated static instability is well above average south of the Azores near #Alex. Convection thriving
Quoting 102. HurricaneFan:

Has Alex peaked or is it likely still strengthening?
still strengthening
Quoting 99. sar2401:

There's a lot of coverage over here, with stories on all the major networks, CNN, and Fox. Alos many stories on the internet. Maybe it's time to give up on Spanish news. :-)

I have to think that I support them a bit as I live here and its in our back yard.
Strangle enough when there are typhoons and Hurricanes in other areas they comment on them quite a bit. Probably a throw back to the days of their empire about the time of Carlos V.

News just passed now at 9.30, no mention of Alex yet. just lots of Football

I keep looking back at Grother's chart at post 95 and imagining Alex going to the east rather than the west and passing over the UK and Norway.

Quoting 104. Claudette1234:



The low is PALI,

So PALI TS SEVEN and Hurricane ALEX.
Just going by what I see here. The low should not be Pali since it's still named. I have no idea where TS Seven is and can't find it in any of the usual places.

Quoting 101. sar2401:

There are only two, TD Pali and Hurricane Alex. The low doesn't have a name. It looks like Pali doesn't have much more time before it will also not have a name.


actually is Victor but don't have yet 40 mph 10-min sustained.


South Pacific
Quoting 109. PlazaRed:


I have to think that I support them a bit as I live here and its in our back yard.
Strangle enough when there are typhoons and Hurricanes in other areas they comment on them quite a bit. Probably a throw back to the days of their empire about the time of Carlos V.

News just passed now at 9.30, no mention of Alex yet. just lots of Football

I keep looking back at Grother's chart at post 95 and imagining Alex going to the east rather than the west and passing over the UK and Norway.


When I was in Spain (1995), I had the feeling some parts of the Spanish media weren't sure Franco was still dead. :-) I've pretty much given up on most of the media here except for breaking news. The regular news is likely to consist of things like what star has been arrested or gone into drug rehab. I don't even waste my time with the local newspapers. The internet is a lot better source for news, and I get the chance to cross check the sources. Between them all, it's likely that truth is somewhere in the middle. So far at least, the chance of something like Alex hitting the UK and Norway is still remote. I'll leave it to the bloggers of 2050 to track that. Thankfully, I'll be long dead.
Quoting 92. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys sorry for not being on earlier
I was away on international conference call talking about Hurricane Alex for like 3 hrs
Its not like you to leave us hanging like that. Was the call that important.?..What takes three hours.?
Quoting 112. pablosyn:



actually is Victor but don't have yet 40 mph 10-min sustained.
Where did it get the name Victor? You mean that will be the name if does turn into a tropical storm?
TS SEVEN DVORAK

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JAN 2016 Time : 195200 UTC
Lat : 14:03:29 S Lon : 165:15:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1000.4mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 3.3

Center Temp : -76.7C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Quoting 100. Sfloridacat5:

CMC forecast for 12Z tomorrow. By 18Z is shows a solid line of storms moving across south Florida.

That blob is that's over me is supposed to be the low that's going to move inland and back out into the Atlantic through Georgia and the Carolinas. The storms over south Florida are out in front of the low. The CMC is the only one showing this solution. If that comes to pass, I should see a chance of severe weather. Birmingham isn't buying it, just calling for showers and possible thunderstorm or two. I'm really starting to hate models that can't agree at 24 hours.

Quoting 114. sar2401:

When I was in Spain (1995), I had the feeling some parts of the Spanish media weren't sure Franco was still dead. :-) I've pretty much given up on most of the media here except for breaking news. The regular news is likely to consist of things like what star has been arrested or gone into drug rehab. I don't even waste my time with the local newspapers. The internet is a lot better source for news, and I get the chance to cross check the sources. Between them all, it's likely that truth is somewhere in the middle. So far at least, the chance of something like Alex hitting the UK and Norway is still remote. I'll leave it to the bloggers of 2050 to track that. Thankfully, I'll be long dead.

I was not for one minute insanely suggesting that Alex would be hitting the UK and Norway.
My idea was that it is very good luck from the point of view of the present steering forces that Alex is NOT going to go to the East.
My idea is that western Europe has had good luck in this case that Alex is going to the West and towards Greenland, that for the time being is probably the best place for Alex to end up and I too will be long dead by 2050 as well no doubt, so over to TA13 and others to look forward to the future with zest and zeal for its untold surprises, like Alex is for us now!
Quoting 118. Claudette1234:

TS SEVEN DVORAK

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JAN 2016 Time : 195200 UTC
Lat : 14:03:29 S Lon : 165:15:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1000.4mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 3.3

Center Temp : -76.7C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Do you have a link?
According to forecast will be in 72 hrs 100kt so cat 3 Cyclone

WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141021ZJAN16//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 165.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.5S 165.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.9S 166.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.2S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.9S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.4S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
ECMWF EPS 12z agrees with the rest of the ensembles and operational models against the ECMWF OP 12z.


ECWMF EPS 216HR:



ECMWF OP 216 HR:



Possible sign of the ECMWF OP Bias.
Names Alvin Bune Cyril Daphne Eden Florin Garry Haley Isa June Kofi Louise Mike
Niko Ola Pam Reuben Solo Tuni Ula Victor Winston ------ Yalo Zena
Quoting 121. sar2401:

Do you have a link?


yes i have a link official Joint typhoon warning page

Link
126. 882MB




123. Drakoen

lol wut? GFS must have passed some of the good stuff to the Euro.It shows two totally extremely different scenarios.
Quoting 120. PlazaRed:


I was not for one minute insanely suggesting that Alex would be hitting the UK and Norway.
My idea was that it is very good luck from the point of view of the present steering forces that Alex is NOT going to go to the East.
My idea is that western Europe has had good luck in this case that Alex is going to the West and towards Greenland, that for the time being is probably the best place for Alex to end up and I too will be long dead by 2050 as well no doubt, so over to TA13 and others to look forward to the future with zest and zeal for its untold surprises, like Alex is for us now!
No, I knew you weren't suggesting that, just ruminating what would happen if it did. It does seem just about inevitable that tropical and subtropical storms will move further north as the climate continues to warm. Alex has already shown that SST's are not the only Holy Grail of hurricane formation. More northerly transport of tropical air is going to make all storms in England and Continent worse over the next 100 years, not just standouts like Alex. More worrying is what it will do to the garden variety lows in the North Atlantic in winter. We already get lows there that are more violent than many hurricanes. Having more and even more violent North Atlantic lows will have a direct impact on shipping, and what gets transported where by sea. Many more unforeseen challenges ahead. I'm hoping I still get a chance to follow what's happening with weather wherever I end up. Maybe my forecasts will finally be right! :-)
From the Tampa NWS:
AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AND UNSEASONABLY WARM GULF
WATERS...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY OVER THE GULF WATERS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
WITH A STRONG UPPER JET IN PLACE...WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR
ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...AND EXPECT SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE WATERS...WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. AS THESE
STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNRISE...THEY WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE GULF...WHERE STABILITY
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN A WEAKENING
OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...AND A DECREASED SEVERE RISK.
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:

123. Drakoen

lol wut? GFS must have passed some of the good stuff to the Euro.It shows two totally extremely different scenarios.


I'm hoping we can pull this one off but we still have many models runs to go.
80KT jet out in the GOM (@300mb)

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 20:49:00Z
Coordinates: 28.633N 87.817W
Acft. Static Air Press: 287.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 9,688 m
D-value: 237 m
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 244° at 82 kts (From the WSW at 94.4 mph)
Air Temp: -42.9°C (-45.2°F)
Dew Pt: -55.5°C (-67.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 83 kts (95.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 10 kts (11.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (0.16 in/hr)
Link
Quoting 101. sar2401:

There are only two, TD Pali and Hurricane Alex. The low doesn't have a name. It looks like Pali doesn't have much more time before it will also not have a name.

There is this to consider:-

http://resize-ak.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/resize? filename=/data/images/sp201607_5day.gif&width=266& height=192



Quoting 125. Claudette1234:



yes i have a link official Joint typhoon warning page

Link
OK, I see what you're looking at now. It's not a "named" storm because it hasn't yet met the official criteria of 10 minute sustained winds of 39 mph or more, although it should do so very soon. I wish we could have one global classification system for storms instead of a different one for each basin.
Quoting 119. sar2401:

That blob is that's over me is supposed to be the low that's going to move inland and back out into the Atlantic through Georgia and the Carolinas. The storms over south Florida are out in front of the low. The CMC is the only one showing this solution. If that comes to pass, I should see a chance of severe weather. Birmingham isn't buying to, just calling for showers and possible thunderstorm or two. I'm really starting to hate models that can't agree at 24 hours.




Be interesting to watch. Local meteorologists are saying we could have some strong storms tomorrow across southern Fl. The Chief Meteorologist for a local news station told me he puts most his short term trust (1-3 day - local forecasts) with the NAM.
Quoting 132. PlazaRed:

Link
There is this to consider:-

http://resize-ak.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/resize? filename=/data/images/sp201607_5day.gif&width= 266& height=192




I see that now. It showed up literally between the time I posted the graphic and you did.
Quoting 133. sar2401:

OK, I see what you're looking at now. It's not a "named" storm because it hasn't yet met the official criteria of 10 minute sustained winds of 39 mph or more, although it should do so very soon. I wish we could have one global classification system for storms instead of a different one for each basin.


They can't even get the numbering straight:

JTWC 07P

NADI 08F
Quoting 43. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro & GFS is showing strong surface winds of 30mph to 45mph from Tampa to Orlando Sunday morning with drivings rains and possible severe thunderstorms. Very active pattern now across FL and its important that residents in C & S FL take heed of any tornado warnings that may come out tomorrow and on Sunday.





I know I've been watching model trends and wondering why meteorologists aren't mentioning that Sunday may be just as much of a threat for strong thunderstorms if not more so than tomorrow morning based on current trends. The fact that forecasters are only showing a 40-50% chance of showers when a strong upper short wave will be traversing the eastern gulf in sync with a surface low and associated strong low level jet is surprising to me.
Sure, the models have been inconsistent, but they have overall been trending stronger rather than not, even though they have flip flopped along the way in terms of placement and intensity. I suppose the best explanation is they are more worried about focusing on Friday first, so they are don't want to get carried away on emphasis with the next event.

Regarding tomorrow morning though, the tricky things with these high shear/low cape situations, is that often there are less cells the prompt severe warnings, but the ones that do tend to be really nasty. Also, it will be tricky, because instability will be high to support significant supercell development over the gulf, but the shelf waters and land areas look to be too low on the CAPE, so the result will likely mean weakening convection as activity moves inland, which is common for activity moving from the water to land in the morning, especially in the winter. With that said, dynamics and shear are strong enough that there still is chance of a few super cells or bowing segments making onshore and prompting severe tstorm warnings and tornado warnings.

Quoting 134. Sfloridacat5:



Be interesting to watch. Local meteorologists are saying we could have some strong storms tomorrow across southern Fl. The Chief Meteorologist for a local news station told me he puts most his short term trust (1-3 day - local forecasts) with the NAM.
The NAM shows an initial solution much closer to the CMC but, by this time tomorrow, it has the low flying off into the Atlantic off the coast of South Carolina. That's supposed to happen in six hours from the time the low is in the Gulf west of central Florida. It's not even showing the existing 1012 mb low at time now. I'm telling you, these models have been downright hateful lately.

Quoting 119. sar2401:

That blob is that's over me is supposed to be the low that's going to move inland and back out into the Atlantic through Georgia and the Carolinas. The storms over south Florida are out in front of the low. The CMC is the only one showing this solution. If that comes to pass, I should see a chance of severe weather. Birmingham isn't buying to, just calling for showers and possible thunderstorm or two. I'm really starting to hate models that can't agree at 24 hours.




There's reall no chance severe weather will happen in your area, low level instability will be enough of a struggle across Central and South Florida, so instability will be non-existent in your area. Most rainfall in your area will be stratiform, and if you see any heavier convective rains, it will all be elevated way above the surface, meaning no chance of severe at all.
Quoting 136. nrtiwlnvragn:



They can't even get the numbering straight:

JTWC 07P

NADI 08F
I don't know why a unified naming and classification system is so hard, but it apparently is. The first time I remember it being discussed at a WMO meeting was back when I was about 16. That would have been about 1955 or so. It has been discussed numerous times since and nothing still has come of it. I assume there are national and political sticking points or it would have been done long ago.
Quoting 136. nrtiwlnvragn:



They can't even get the numbering straight:

JTWC 07P

NADI 08F


the numbering from JTWC is shared with the south Indian ocean as well.

by the way.. ULA was 05F from Nadi.
Quoting 132. PlazaRed:

Link
There is this to consider:-

http://resize-ak.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/resize? filename=/data/images/sp201607_5day.gif&width=266& height=192

The continually recurring confusion of WU maps near the dateline again.

Quoting 139. Jedkins01:



There's reall no chance severe weather will happen in your area, low level instability will be enough of a struggle across Central and South Florida, so instability will be non-existent in your area. Most rainfall in your area will be stratiform, and if you see any heavier convective rains, it will all be elevated way above the surface, meaning no chance of severe at all.
There may be a little higher chance in the Panhandle right along the coast if the NAM is correct, but the only place for enough instability to come from is the Gulf. That means Florida has a way better chance than me. There is still a lot of dry (42% humidity right now) and cool air in place, so overcoming that seems highly unlikely. Saturday night and Sunday are a little better chance but still not much. Whatever does come of this mess will likely be somewhere in Florida.
Quoting 137. Jedkins01:




I know I've been watching model trends and wondering why meteorologists aren't mentioning that Sunday may be just as much of a threat for strong thunderstorms if not more so than tomorrow morning based on current trends. The fact that forecasters are only showing a 40-50% chance of showers when a strong upper short wave will be traversing the eastern gulf in sync with a surface low and associated strong low level jet is surprising to me.
Sure, the models have been inconsistent, but they have overall been trending stronger rather than not, even though they have flip flopped along the way in terms of placement and intensity. I suppose the best explanation is they are more worried about focusing on Friday first, so they are don't want to get carried away on emphasis with the next event.

Regarding tomorrow morning though, the tricky things with these high shear/low cape situations, is that often there are less cells the prompt severe warnings, but the ones that do tend to be really nasty. Also, it will be tricky, because instability will be high to support significant supercell development over the gulf, but the shelf waters and land areas look to be too low on the CAPE, so the result will likely mean weakening convection as activity moves inland, which is common for activity moving from the water to land in the morning, especially in the winter. With that said, dynamics and shear are strong enough that there still is chance of a few super cells or bowing segments making onshore and prompting severe tstorm warnings and tornado warnings.




I'm just hoping one of these rain events gives me some solid rain. I haven't had a day with over an inch of rain since Sept. 6th. Sunday seems like a better bet than tomorrow.
almost Victor officially.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
6:00 AM FST January 15 2016
=============================
Southwest of Northern Cook Island
East of American Samoa

A GALE WARNING is in force for Rakahanga, Manihiki, Penryhn, and Suwarrow of the Northern Cook Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (996 hPa) located at 13.8S 164.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery. The depression is reported as slowly moving.

Deep convection remains persistent with convective bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center. Organization has improved past 12 hours. Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region and in a low to moderate sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on 0.55 wrap yeilds DT=2.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models maintain a southward track with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 14.4S 165.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.8S 165.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.9S 165.5W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
Richard Hendrickson, nation’s most stalwart volunteer weatherman, dies at 103




National
Richard Hendrickson, nation’s most stalwart volunteer weatherman, dies at 103
Resize Text Print Article Comments 1


Mr. Hendrickson observes a storm in the 1930s. (D.L. Hendrickson)
By Emily Langer January 13 at 6:30 PM
Every day in the century that Richard G. Hendrickson spent on Hill View Farm, a poultry and dairy operation in the Long Island hamlet of Bridgehampton, N.Y., there were duties to be done.

There were eggs to collect — 4,500 a day when he was young. There were cows to milk. There was hay to cut. And there was the temperature, maybe even some rainfall, to measure, a task that he faithfully performed twice a day, morning and evening, during an unprecedented 85 years as a National Weather Service volunteer.

Officially, Mr. Hendrickson, who died Jan. 9 at 103, belonged to the weather service’s corps of Cooperative Observers, a network established in 1890 to help track meteorological data across the expanse of the United States. The group today includes more than 8,700 volunteers.

Mr. Hendrickson was the first observer in the program’s history to serve more than 80 years, a distinction that made him a celebrity among the country’s most devoted weather buffs. The National Weather Service, an authority in the measurement of accumulation, estimated that Mr. Hendrickson had compiled more than 150,000 weather observations in his life.

He did not set out to be a weatherman, volunteer or otherwise. In his teens, a period that coincided with the Calvin Coolidge administration, he befriended a local writer and weather enthusiast who asked to install a weather service observation station on the Hendrickson farm. The family agreed, Mr. Hendrickson became an apprentice and by July 1, 1930, according to many accounts, he had taken over its operation.



Mr. Hendrickson demonstrates his method of collecting data for the National Weather Service in 2014. (AP)
The weather station, resembling a miniature white shed on stilts, contained thermometers to measure the high, low and current temperatures. Mr. Hendrickson’s instruments also included a rain gauge and a wind gauge, installed on his roof, which he checked during storms as frequently as every quarter-hour.

Most modern-day Cooperative Observers submit their findings electronically. Mr. Hendrickson used a black rotary phone. The New York Times, reporting in 2014 on the milestone of his 84th year as a weather volunteer, described the daily routine:

“Bridgehampton,” he would announced to the meteorologist on duty at the regional forecast office. “Good morning.”


Mr. Hendrickson also produced a regular written chart and report, submitted in carbon copy to the weather service and several local newspapers, in which he spun his observations of the skies into poetic meditations on the joys and agonies of the farmer’s life.

“Pastures burnt brown,” he wrote in an Aug. 26, 1948, installment excerpted by Newsday. “Poultry farms lost hundreds of birds from heat. All sweet corn, cucumber dried up. Feed corn drying fast.”

Winter, too, brought its threats. “If ever you were to feed the wildlife,” he wrote in January 1965, “it is now. It is impossible for the birds and rabbits to dig through the settled, hardpacked and frozen 6 inches of crusty snow to get seeds and food.”

But on occasion, the sky offered some reward, such as in October 1974, as reprinted in Newsday:


" What we’ve seen is the warmest December on record and what’s interesting is that we’ve broke the record by 2 degrees - this is the consequences of one degree of warming that’s caused by human influence on climate in the last century. What’s interesting is that even at the scale of the UK in a single month, the largest natural climate fluctuation in existence - that’s the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific - is being overtaken by climate change.”


– Myles Allen – Professor, Geosystem Science, Oxford University

Link
At 75 kts Alex is generating decent ACE.
What possible effects may Alex have on the Eastern seaboard weather? We have some interesting systems bowling across, possibly phasing. Can Alex affect the NAO, and cause blocking? Already the models are in flux; the Euro ens in conflict, and the Euro opposed to the other main models.
This whole last month reminds me of the ole’ Pink Floyd cut –

Time

The part where all the alarm clocks go off.
Quoting 121. sar2401:

Do you have a link?


Here you are, too:
TS 07P
from the CIMSS TC Webpage
The company gave me two options now....Texas or a position in Howard county (between D.C and Baltimore) that has recently opened up.
Alex is not looking as good in the last few frames, however.
ABC says the Azores should expect waves up to 60 feet high. I don't think so since Alex is not that big.

“Toto, I don’t think we’re in Kansas any more “

robertscribbler / January 14, 2016

Don’t look now. We’ve got December of 2015 at +1.4 C above 1890 averages… +0.36 C above December of 2014!!
Quoting 157. TheBigBanana:

ABC says the Azores should expect waves up to 60 feet high. I don't think so since Alex is not that big.


60 footers...That would cause some beach erosion..Most places anyway...
Alex looking ragged..

Alex probably peaked at 100mph today.After when the 4th advisory came out he got a little more organized.
I know the weather has been strange so far this winter (we had thunderstorms and hail here a week before Christmas), but an Atlantic hurricane in January? What's going on here?

I guess this just shows you can't really take your eyes off the tropics, for they can do things off season.
Quoting 152. cloudymix:

What possible effects may Alex have on the Eastern seaboard weather? We have some interesting systems bowling across, possibly phasing. Can Alex affect the NAO, and cause blocking? Already the models are in flux; the Euro ens in conflict, and the Euro opposed to the other main models.

Cannot answer your question regarding the US, unfortunately. But in respect to Europe the emergence of Alex probably changed schedule for our weather the week ahead. Only yesterday models promised at least a week of strong winter weather with frosts and snow. Today this upcoming winter was reduced to three or four days with a return of mild air on Tuesday/Wednesday for my region in Germany. Looks like Alex is going to enhance the strength of the Atlantic lows, and this reactivation of the zonal Atlantic west drift should expel any cold air in Europe swiftly (I'm no expert though). German fans of winter weather are in need of intensive care tonight after watching the latest runs of the models, lol.


GFS for Europe. Purple cold air will be pushed away from us to the east.


Meteogram for my region near Frankfurt, showing a strong uptick of temperatures on January 17 and 18.

Good night and good luck to the Azores. Hope folks over there will survive Alex unscathed (and provide some nice videos of the waves and winds, lol).
Syd Bridges / January 14, 2016

Robert, thank you so much for your indefatigable posts. The run of new events makes it feel as though the climate is in freefall. Fortunately, Dr Spencer & co, can pooh-pooh it before Ted Cruz and reality can go out of the window. Tamino posted this video from Andrew Dessler on the satellite evidence. Ted Cruz alert for those without a strong stomach..


How Reliable are Satellite Temperatures?

Link
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

The company gave me two options now....Texas or a position in Howard county (between D.C and Baltimore) that has recently opened up.


What part of TX?
Quoting 166. TimSoCal:



What part of TX?
In the Dallas Fort Worth area (Arlington) .
I think there's a good chance analysis will determine that Alex was a hurricane at 5 am AST this morning and was possibly a fully tropical system at 11 pm AST last night.
R.D. FLAG FLAG
01L/H/A/C1


ok say goodbye take a bow u been the first record of 2016
Quoting 167. washingtonian115:

In the Dallas Fort Worth area (Arlington) .
u gonna be a Texas gal wash or u staying in the ne
I think Alex will still be a hurricane next advisory but after that I'm not sure. Alex could revive for a little while although I doubt it.
Quoting 167. washingtonian115:

In the Dallas Fort Worth area (Arlington) .

Arlington is stupid overcrowded. Take the word from someone who lives there.
Quoting 167. washingtonian115:

In the Dallas Fort Worth area (Arlington) .


I feel like you're a person that doesn't like long hot summers, so I'd probably pass on that lol.
Scribbler has the bit in his teeth -


A Terrifying Jump in Global Temperatures — December of 2015 at 1.4 C Above 1890


A monster El Nino firing off in the Pacific. A massive fossil fuel driven accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere pushing CO2 levels well above 400 parts per million. The contribution of other greenhouse gasses pushing the total global heat forcing into the range of 485 parts per million CO2e. Given this stark context, we knew the numbers were probably going to be bad. We just didn’t know how bad. And, looking at the initial measures coming in, we can definitely say that this is serious.

According to today’s report from Japan’s Meteorological Agency, global temperatures jumped by a ridiculous 0.36 degrees Celsius from the period of December 2014 — the previous hottest December in the global climate record — through December 2015 — the new hottest December by one heck of a long shot. To put such an amazing year-on-year monthly jump in global temperatures into context, the average decadal rate of global temperature increase has been in the range of 0.15 C every ten years for the past three and a half decades. It’s as if you lumped 20 years of human forced warming all into one 12 month differential.


Link
All the models on tropicaltidbits, HWRF, GFDL, GFS and CMC show Alex deepening by a few millibars as it goes through the Azores. Whether it's tropical or not they will get a nasty storm especially on Terceira island. This looks like the station to watch.

Hazardous Weather Outlook Text

FLUS42 KMFL 141447
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
150300-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
947 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS SEVERE, OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY
STRONG, AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A POSSIBLE TORNADO AND/OR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A TORNADO OVERNIGHT.

WIND: WINDS MAY GUST TO 55 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER ALL LOCAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN STREET FLOODING ALSO ON
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. WIND CHILL READINGS
INTO THE 30S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
Quoting 164. barbamz:


Cannot answer your question regarding the US, unfortunately. But in respect to Europe the emergence of Alex probably changed schedule for our weather the week ahead. Only yesterday models promised at least a week of strong winter weather with frosts and snow. Today this upcoming winter was reduced to three or four days with a return of mild air on Tuesday/Wednesday for my region in Germany. Looks like Alex is going to enhance the strength of the Atlantic lows, and this reactivation of the zonal Atlantic west drift should expel any cold air in Europe swiftly (I'm no expert though). German fans of winter weather are in need of intensive care tonight after watching the latest runs of the models, lol.


GFS for Europe. Purple cold air will be pushed away from us to the east.


Meteogram for my region near Frankfurt, showing a strong uptick of temperatures on January 17 and 18.

Good night and good luck to the Azores. Hope folks over there will survive Alex unscathed (and provide some nice videos of the waves and winds, lol).


Appreciate the reply. Between El Nino and the suddenly active tropics, what a winter.
Quoting 172. Supportstorm:


Arlington is stupid overcrowded. Take the word from someone who lives there.


However, this Texan would love to see Washi in Arlington ...we could meet up for coffee halfway!
180. MahFL
Quoting 159. hydrus:

60 footers...That would cause some beach erosion..Most places anyway...


Not in the Azores, the Azores are made from volcanic islands, not like sand bar Florida. Typical Azores beach :

Quoting 161. hydrus:

Alex looking ragged..




No surprise climatology would kick in considering the storm shouldn't even exist at all.
2015 Temperature Data from Japanese Meteorological Agency:




Higher and higher
A Terrifying Jump in Global Temperatures — December of 2015 at 1.4 C Above 1890


I'm only a wee bit scared.
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

The company gave me two options now....Texas or a position in Howard county (between D.C and Baltimore) that has recently opened up.


If everything were equal, it would be a toss up for me. That area outside DC isn't bad. But, I would move to Arlington if the job were right. Of course I would move anywhere if the job were right. Of course the area around DC is full of politicos, and Arlington is full of Texans. Tough call. My condolences.

Qazulight
img


Two lows near the east coast.

Is the Azores still Portugal or is it like Cape Verde now?

Quoting 183. PensacolaDoug:

A Terrifying Jump in Global Temperatures — December of 2015 at 1.4 C Above 1890


I'm only a wee bit scared.



It's sad that a lot of people in the world don't realize just how huge a degree and a half rise is in 125 years; the ocean is so vast and can hold so much energy, a 4.4 billion year old earth, 1890 might as well have been last Tuesday.
Quoting 183. PensacolaDoug:

A Terrifying Jump in Global Temperatures %u2014 December of 2015 at 1.4 C Above 1890


I'm only a wee bit scared.



That's because you don't understand the under laying physics, or the geologic history of the planet.
Several months back I saw a comment saying , "The West Antarctic Ice Sheet" doesn't care what you believe. the physics doesn't care either.

Here's the physics at work in your home town -

North Central Gulf Coast Historic Flash Flood Event 29-30 April 2014


Of significance, the two day estimated total for Pensacola of 20.47" lies between a 1 in 100 to 1 in 200 year event.

Link

This is coming again , and right soon to your backyard. No hurricane needed. Except the next event will carry even more rain . So, when your computer is full mud. Be sure to tell us .
Quoting 180. MahFL:



Not in the Azores, the Azores are made from volcanic islands, not like sand bar Florida. Typical Azores beach :




Seems like a bunch of open Atlantic islands are of volcanic origin, unlike the barrier islands or coral keys near the mainland. Even Bermuda is an atoll, and one of the islands in either the Canary or the Cape Verde chain is one of the Decade Volcanoes, which includes Etna, Rainier, Galeras, and Mauna Loa.
Quoting 187. RobertWC:



That's because you don't understand the under laying physics, or the geologic history of the planet.
Several months back I saw a comment saying , %u201CThe West Antarctic Ice Sheet, doesn%u2019t care what you believe%u201D. the physics doesn%u2019t care either.

Here's the physics at work in your home town -

North Central Gulf Coast Historic Flash Flood Event %u2013 29-30 April 2014


Of significance, the two day estimated total for Pensacola of 20.47" lies between a 1 in 100 to 1 in 200 year event.

Link

This is coming again , and right soon to your backyard. No hurricane needed. Except the next event will carry even more rain . So, when your computer is full mud. Be sure to tell us .


Is there a formatting problem? All the percent sings and whatnot.
Quoting 182. JohnLonergan:

2015 Temperature Data from Japanese Meteorological Agency:




Higher and higher

And faster and faster.
Hurricane Alex. Jan 14, 2016! Still impressive in the eastern Atlantic, with 85MPH winds and higher gusts.

Alex appears to be headed more northbound. Looks like it is encountering dry air entrainment from the SW, or is it the beginning of an EWRC ? Very interesting hurricane to watch in January, one for the record books!

Hope the Azores are ready. Good Luck.
192. redux
Quoting 184. Qazulight:



If everything were equal, it would be a toss up for me. That area outside DC isn't bad. But, I would move to Arlington if the job were right. Of course I would move anywhere if the job were right. Of course the area around DC is full of politicos, and Arlington is full of Texans. Tough call. My condolences.

Qazulight


the hilarious absurdity of calling a county with a median income of $108,000.00 dollars 'not bad'
Quoting 189. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is there a formatting problem? All the percent sings and whatnot.


No. if one types error here, and goes back to edit , the the new post throws gibberish where a simple ( ' ) was and where a more complex ( " ) was.
My sin this time was I spell you and not your. But I re- edited and whn back and deleted the gibberish.

This the greatest commenting formant on the web, your eagle eye found it's only weak link . It's never changed since the beginning. But go back and look, I cleaned up all that gibberish on edit #2.
I see you finally got your Avatar working!!!!
Quoting 189. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is there a formatting problem? All the percent sings and whatnot.


It's really interesting this ( ' ) and this ( " ) turn into gibberish , when one edits a comment. But all other punctuation marks are good. Don't ask my why. That's just the way it is on the WU.

It's also the richest comment thread on the web, period. A small price to pay for the mind blowing graphics found here and nowhere else. No Where Else .

These threads are like going to the State Fair. And if you break the rules they ban you for a period of time , my personal best was 96 hours.

Insert smiley face here.

win1gamegiantsplease ......................... Think about it, nobody on the web let's one post animations of cyclones heading into Greenland. Nobody.
Quoting 194. PedleyCA:

I see you finally got your Avatar working!!!!


Even a blind pig finds an acorn every now and then.
win1gamegiantsplease

That is the most complex avartar I've ever seen. Now that I sounded it out I see . From now on your are Win One.
Quoting 186. win1gamegiantsplease:

Is the Azores still Portugal or is it like Cape Verde now?



It's sad that a lot of people in the world don't realize just how huge a degree and a half rise is in 125 years; the ocean is so vast and can hold so much energy, a 4.4 billion year old earth, 1890 might as well have been last Tuesday.

The Azores (Os Acores in Portuguese, with a thingy under the c, pronounced like the second c in Curacao, which, with the thingy under the second c and a wavy thingy over the second a is Portuguese for "heart", but I digress) is a part of Portugal, as is Madeira, the home of the futebolista Cristiano Ronaldo.
R.D. FLAG ON
01L/H/A/C1

Quoting 192. redux:



the hilarious absurdity of calling a county with a median income of $108,000.00 dollars 'not bad'


I lived 7 years in Fauquier County, and part of the time worked in Warrenton and part of the time near Spring Field. The median income there is high too.

When I left I swore they would have to bring me back in chains, and I still need Valium and a stiff drink just to cross the Missisippi. On the other hand Arlington is in the dead center of the Dallas/Fort Worth metro plex. A few years ago, (The last state fair before Big Tex went up in smoke) I was standing outside my hotel and watching the long sewage of traffic snaking down Hwy 80. All I could think of is these poor folks are sentenced to life here, doing that.

Keeping things on topic...a little...at least the D.C area has 4 seasons and the summer evenings last and last. On the other hand, Dallas gets some really interesting weather.

Personally, if the job was all the same, I would rather live in Fargo or Duluth, even Sioux Falls isn't bad.
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

The company gave me two options now....Texas or a position in Howard county (between D.C and Baltimore) that has recently opened up.


Aren't you in NW DC? That's quite a commute although it should be "against" the main traffic.
Close up of Alex
Quoting 201. Drakoen:



Aren't you in NW DC? That's quite a commute although it should be "against" the main traffic.
That is correct.I'm familiar with this area and not Texas.They have nice homes in the area and a one of the best school systems in the D.C area.
I think we could see another pre season storm by April.
am forecasting 17 too 25 name storms this season 16 hurricanes and 10 major
REMNANTS OF PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST THU JAN 14 2016

DATA FROM THE 2117 UTC ASCAT METOP-B PASS...AS WELL AS FROM LAST
NIGHT/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
TODAY...SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PALI HAS BECOME
HIGHLY DISRUPTED AND ELONGATED...AND IT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE TO
DEFINITIVELY LOCATE A CLOSED CENTER. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DECLARED A REMNANT AT THIS TIME. THE ASCAT PASS DID SHOW A FEW
BELIEVABLE 25 KT WIND BARBS LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
PALI AND SO THAT IS BEING USED FOR THE INTENSITY. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRESSURE PERTURBATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF PALI DISSIPATING ON THE EQUATOR...
BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT PALI
COULD INSTEAD HEAD WESTWARD AND REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS AWAY FROM
THE SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY...BUT THE
DISTURBED AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY ON PALI UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 1.7N 173.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
Quoting 203. washingtonian115:

That is correct.I'm familiar with this area and not Texas.They have nice homes in the area and a one of the best school systems in the D.C area.


So I've heard. And at least you would do a lot better snow wise here than going over to Texas.
Sea Shanties in Moby Dick (1956)


Link
My prediction for the season: 20 - 17 - 8.
.
Quoting 192. redux:



the hilarious absurdity of calling a county with a median income of $108,000.00 dollars 'not bad'


But you have to compare it with the cost of living in the area. If you earn $100K in the middle of nowhere Oklahoma, you're very well off. If you earn $100K in San Fransisco, you're making ends meet.

All I know is that the only time my commute didn't totally suck was when I was working at NASA (Greenbelt). Even when 295 was backed up I could usually make it there in 30-40 minutes. Lately my job has taken me to the other side of the beltway.

Doesn't matter where you are here. If you have to drive to the other side of the beltway your commute is going to suck. :P
Quoting 203. washingtonian115:

That is correct.I'm familiar with this area and not Texas.They have nice homes in the area and a one of the best school systems in the D.C area.


Yep, Howard is pretty nice. Had a few friends who lived there.

Personally, if the job was all the same, I would rather live in Fargo or Duluth, even Sioux Falls isn't bad.


200. Qazulight

Let's all send this fellow to Duluth. he thinks Fargo or Duluth are the same as Sioux Falls .

Trust me zippy , you want Sioux Falls

Quoting 212. Xyrus2000:



But you have to compare it with the cost of living in the area. If you earn $100K in the middle of nowhere Oklahoma, you're very well off. If you earn $100K in San Fransisco, you're making ends meet.

All I know is that the only time my commute didn't totally suck was when I was working at NASA (Greenbelt). Even when 295 was backed up I could usually make it there in 30-40 minutes. Lately my job has taken me to the other side of the beltway.

Doesn't matter where you are here. If you have to drive to the other side of the beltway your commute is going to suck. :P


What group did you work with at NASA?
It's starting to look a lot like El Nino.

Sung in tune to "It's starting to look a lot like Christmas"
203. washingtonian115

Come to Texas -
Janis
Stevie Ray
Willie Nelson
Buddy Holly
Steve Earl
Waylon Jennings

Trust me dog this ain't happenin in South Dakota -

Steve Earle - Texas Eagle

Link

The Texas Eagle


Well, I think I understand how Alex became a hurricane. Due to what we have been told about "warm" core systems, traditionally in area's with SST above 80 degrees, if the upper atmosphere is a lot colder than the surface, a "warm" core system can evolve in SST around 70 degrees.
Had to dumb it down for myself.
Extended Forecast for
San Francisco CA

Sunday Rain. High near 58. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
M.L.King Day Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 56.
Monday Night Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 52. Breezy.
Tuesday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

Yes! Heavy at times. Been awhile.
Quoting 212. Xyrus2000:



But you have to compare it with the cost of living in the area. If you earn $100K in the middle of nowhere Oklahoma, you're very well off. If you earn $100K in San Fransisco, you're making ends meet.

All I know is that the only time my commute didn't totally suck was when I was working at NASA (Greenbelt). Even when 295 was backed up I could usually make it there in 30-40 minutes. Lately my job has taken me to the other side of the beltway.

Doesn't matter where you are here. If you have to drive to the other side of the beltway your commute is going to suck. :P


I'd be happy to make 40K a year, so I guess it's all perspective. As a college student I've learned to make a small amount of money go along way, people don't realize how much money is wasted on things that either don't help much or actually make one's life worse. With that said, I'm not talking about cost of living, rather I'm talking about budget.

Some places costs of living is just ridiculous like San Francisco, so it doesn't matter how thrifty one is, 40-50K a year is poor in some areas with very high costs of living. The whole high cost of living thing is something I could get upset about, but I won't for the sake of peace, and because it's a weather blog.
I guess Qazulight never watched the show Fargo. Besides all the crime that happened in the area a while back, the weather can get pretty nasty also.
Large surge in tropical moisture quickly spreading north and northeast towards the eastern gulf, it will help to quickly change the dry cool air mass into a warm, moist, and tropical like one across Florida. It will also help to enhance rainfall up here in the Big Bend as the deeper moisture links up with the intensifying low. Expect a squall line to begin developing in the gulf soon south of the Central Gulf coast along with some discrete cells possible out ahead of it.

Quoting 213. Xyrus2000:



Yep, Howard is pretty nice. Had a few friends who lived there.
I have a brother in law who works at one of the high schools.I was pretty impressed to see a full functioning green house where some of the veggies were used in the cafeteria food such as salads and veggie dishes.
Have to agree with this. We live in an area where there is a high concentration of very rich people. Naples, Fl.
But you can live like they do, if you can live in house that's under 2000 sq/ft and have an area to store your boat. Besides that, you enjoy everything else they experience while living here, on hamburger/chips budget compared to the steak/potatoes budget.

Quoting 221. Jedkins01:



I'd be happy to make 40K a year, so I guess it's all perspective. As a college student I've learned to make a small amount of money go along way, people don't realize how much money is wasted on things that either don't help much or actually make one's life worse. With that said, I'm not talking about cost of living, rather I'm talking about budget.

Some places costs of living is just ridiculous like San Francisco, so it doesn't matter how thrifty one is, 40-50K a year is poor in some areas with very high costs of living. The whole high cost of living thing is something I could get upset about, but I won't for the sake of peace, and because it's a weather blog.
10 degrees warmer tonight than last night. Beginning to understand the actual temp doesn't matter that much no more, just the temperature difference from the surface to aloft.



Quoting 223. Jedkins01:

Large surge in tropical moisture quickly spreading north and northeast towards the eastern gulf, it will help to quickly change the dry cool air mass into a warm, moist, and tropical like one across Florida. It will also help to enhance rainfall up here in the Big Bend as the deeper moisture links up with the intensifying low. Expect a squall line to begin developing in the gulf soon south of the Central Gulf coast along with some discrete cells possible out ahead of it.


Quoting 226. swflurker:

10 degrees warmer tonight than last night. Beginning to understand the actual temp doesn't matter that much no more, just the temperature difference from the surface to aloft.


Absolutely, if lapse rates are too weak and there isn't a sufficient lifting mechanism, there will be little to no rain regardless of how deep moisture is and how warm the surface is. I've seen some upper disturbances so vigorous that they can generate strong thunderstorms in an area that has high temps in the 40's and 50's with dew points in the 30's. I've seen that downrange of the rockies in the southern plains before. That's a more extreme case, but the point is, convective instability is similar to voltage potential. CAPE means exactly what it seems, it's convective potential energy. It's potential difference like voltage is potential difference(well not exactly the same, but similar in some ways).

Low level lapse rates are expected to be fairly weak tomorrow, but since mid level temps will quite cool, along with good upper level energy and plenty of shear, a few severe cells will still be possible despite weak low level instability expected.

We seem to have Alex now continuing as a cat 1 all the way to southern Greenland.
Going right over the top of the central Azores in a few hours.

Winds over the Azores probably running up to 70 MPH in about 6 hours from now at about 3 pm Local time.

Link
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
GALE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR, CATEGORY ONE (08F)
18:00 PM FST January 15 2016
=============================
East of American Samoa

A GALE WARNING is in force for Rakahanga, Manihiki, Suwarrow, Nassau, and Pukapuka of the Northern Cook Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Victor, Category One (995 hPa) located at 14.7S 166.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
130 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection has increased with convective bands wrapping around low level circulation center. Organization has improved in the past 24 hours. Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region and in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on 0.65 wrap yields DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models maintain a southward track with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 15.2S 167.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.4S 167.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.2S 167.4W - 55 knots (CAT 2)

2016 RSMC Nadi
Well, Pali has degenerated into a disturbance, and Alex is on its way to extratropical re-transition. According to SAB, Alex is already extratropical, but the ATCF is keeping Alex as a 70-kt hurricane for now.

I hoped Pali could cross the Equator before degeneration, but wind shear was higher than expected, which caused it to weaken rapidly. But it has a slight chance of crossing the Equator as a disturbance, since it is at an extremely low latitude of 1.2N. Only if there was model support, I could be talking with more confidence.

I also see that Tropical Cyclone Victor has formed. I'm curious whether Victor would in some way follow Ula in terms of track.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 150839
TCDAT1

HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

The overall convective pattern of Alex has continued to erode since
the previous advisory. However, conventional and microwave satellite
imagery indicate that there is still enough inner-core convection
and a small radius of maximum winds to warrant keeping Alex as a
hurricane for this advisory. Satellite classifications continue to
decrease, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based
on a blend of the TAFB current intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt and
a current T-number of T3.5/55 kt.

Alex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial
motion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track
slightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position,
there are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then
northwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow
in the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over
the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track,
the center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the
central Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and
regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the
consensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

Most of the coldest cloud shield has now shifted into the western
semicircle, a signal that extratropical transition is likely
beginning. With Alex now moving over 16C sea-surface temperatures,
and with colder water still ahead of the cyclone, transition to
an extratropical cyclone should be complete within the next 12
hours. However, global models suggest that there will be enough
baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds after
transition occurs despite the cold waters of the north Atlantic.

The 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant
based on quality wind reports from ship BATFR17. The wind field is
expected to continue to expand as Alex undergoes extratropical
transition at higher latitudes. The wind radii forecasts are based
primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 36.8N 27.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 41.4N 27.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/0600Z 48.7N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 62.3N 37.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Alex weakened to 65 kt. Still a hurricane, though.

Screenshot of the webcam in Terceira/Azores (Fort of Negrito).


Development/transition of Alex' eye.



Azores on red alert due to freak hurricane
portugalpress on January 15, 2016
The islands of the Azores are on red alert today as freak hurricane ‘Alex’ travels across the archipelago.
The worst of the weather is expected this morning, until 11am, with most of the islands in for heavy rain, “160km per hour” winds and 18-metre waves, says Portugal’s sea and atmosphere institute (IPMA).
Flights to and from the islands have been cancelled since yesterday and schools, kindergartens, courts and universities are closed.
SATA airline guarantees that flights will be resumed once the worst of the weather has passed – hopefully later today. ...
Quoting 228. PlazaRed:

We seem to have Alex now continuing as a cat 1 all the way to southern Greenland.
Going right over the top of the central Azores in a few hours.




It also looks like it will have hurricane force winds over waters that are like 40 degrees Fahrenheit in a couple days as well. Definitely won't be classified as a hurricane anymore by then, but dang, those winds are high anyway.
ISS did pass over Alex a few minutes ago. Here two screenshots (hope we'll get better photos sometime later)




Source.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC037-077-129-151145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0003.160115T1057Z-160115T1145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
557 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 645 AM EST

* AT 556 AM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE TO 10 MILES EAST OF
CARRABELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARRABELLE...ST. MARKS...WOODVILLE...CRAWFORDVILLE...WAKULLA...
SOPCHOPPY...HYDE PARK...PANACEA...BETHEL...PANACEA-WAKULLA
AIRPORT...CURTIS MILL...PORT LEON...TULLY...SAINT TERESA...
NEWPORT...PLUM ORCHARD...MCINTYRE...ARRAN...SPRING CREEK AND
WAKULLA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&
240. redux
Quoting 212. Xyrus2000:



But you have to compare it with the cost of living in the area. If you earn $100K in the middle of nowhere Oklahoma, you're very well off. If you earn $100K in San Fransisco, you're making ends meet.

All I know is that the only time my commute didn't totally suck was when I was working at NASA (Greenbelt). Even when 295 was backed up I could usually make it there in 30-40 minutes. Lately my job has taken me to the other side of the beltway.

Doesn't matter where you are here. If you have to drive to the other side of the beltway your commute is going to suck. :P


just curious, was the ICC here when you worked there?

theres people who live in downtown baltimore and take the marc train into dc. to me that sure beats commuting from boonsboro every day.

Howard County isn't super expensive as a baseline. it is more expensive than perhaps surrounding counties by a porportion, but if you want suburban life its hard to beat howard county.

i hate county people though.

Quoting 214. RobertWC:


Personally, if the job was all the same, I would rather live in Fargo or Duluth, even Sioux Falls isn't bad.


200. Qazulight

Let's all send this fellow to Duluth. he thinks Fargo or Duluth are the same as Sioux Falls .

Trust me zippy , you want Sioux Falls




Been to all three, liked Fargo, Duluth is a little more chilly than Fargo with less wind and more snow, and it is prettier to boot. Sioux Falls is nice but it gets hot in the summer. So far I have only missed 3 days this winter walking to work, (two miles) but that is because it is an El Niño year and so far the big negative days have been on the weekends.

It certainly wasn't like that in Fargo, but I wouldn't walk in the winter, still don't walk below 5, it is just uncomfortable. Even today at 15 with a breeze that brings the wind chill down to 2 I am thinking of driving.

But, I still like Fargo and Duluth better. Just a left wing liberal I guess.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 217. RobertWC:

203. washingtonian115

Come to Texas -
Janis
Stevie Ray
Willie Nelson
Buddy Holly
Steve Earl
Waylon Jennings

Trust me dog this ain't happenin in South Dakota -

Steve Earle - Texas Eagle

Link

The Texas Eagle





I was raised a few miles from where Janis grew up, and road my bike to the converted Piggly Wiggly that ZZ Top started in. I gotta admit, Port Arthur is a great place to be from.

I still have my house and stuff in Nacogdoches. But actually live there? Maybe Nac, but the money better be good to get me to go back. Not saying it won't happen, the company HQ is in Dallas, and all promotions lead there, but you gotta "Show me the money". Today I would rate the Bay Area, Seatlle, or Middleton New Jersey as desirable as Dallas.

Quoting 222. swflurker:

I guess Qazulight never watched the show Fargo. Besides all the crime that happened in the area a while back, the weather can get pretty nasty also.


You made me smile. When I found out I was going to Fargo, everybody asked me is I had seen it. So I watched it. My wife told me the accent would drive me crazy. The crime is so low in Fargo that there is a big campaign about locking your doors. Of course it picked up some with the oil fields and people coming through from Minneapolis.

The weather in Fargo in the winter time is like a malevolent force that personally want you dead. But the summers are glorious.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 237. AldreteMichael:



It also looks like it will have hurricane force winds over waters that are like 40 degrees Fahrenheit in a couple days as well. Definitely won't be classified as a hurricane anymore by then, but dang, those winds are high anyway.


I wonder if that would be enough to mix the fresh and salt water. There is a lot of unmixed fresh and salt water due to the the melting glaciers. A mixing of those waters could unstop the Gulf Stream and let some of the heat bottled up near the east coast dissipate. Of course that depends on the mixing and I don't know if a hurricane has anywhere near the energy required.
Heads up today. Chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across most of Florida today.
so far the event has amounted to no more that a drizzle watching to the west e cen fl.
Quoting 246. islander101010:

so far the event has amounted to no more that a drizzle watching to the west e cen fl.


Nothing for me in Tampa except for some light to moderate rain. Seems like my only chance for significant rains is if this squall line holds together, which I don't expect it to. It already looks weaker than it did an hour ago.
Quoting 245. Sfloridacat5:

Heads up today. Chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across most of Florida today.



Im in that warning in Levy
Good Morning; I was blind all day yesterday weather and news wise as the computers at work went down due to a phone line issue (fixed by this morning) and the cable at the house went out as well yesterday during the day (getting fixed this evening) so I missed all of the developments as to Alex. If I read Mr. Henson's post there is a slight contradiction; it mentions subtropical storm Alex at the beginning of the post but then references the warm cored system due to the baroclinic interaction between the warmer lower core and the colder air aloft.

Thus my question is did Alex start as subtropical yesterday then pull off a warm cored transition hence the hurricane designation?

Assuming this was indeed the case; it's quite a remarkable event in January and basically reflects the left-over heat in the Atlantic from the summer that has not cooled off that much in the mid-to-higher latitudes due both to El Nino and warming issues.
Here is Alex as of this morning after sweeping through the Azores:





Yesterday someone kept saying their was a 0% chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across central and southern Florida for today. I think he needs to leave the forecasting to the professionals.

From the Storm Prediction Center for Central and South Florida.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP INLAND
ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA
EARLY IN THE DAY. IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...OR IF IT WILL
TEND TO OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER WHICH WOULD
TEND TO MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BARRING
COMPLICATIONS FROM EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA COULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES.

Significant weather advisory for the development of funnel clouds
for Broward... Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties until 900 am EST...

* at 803 am EST... Doppler radar widespread showers across Palm
Beach... Broward and Miami Dade counties. Conditions are favorable
for funnel cloud development this morning. These showers may also
produce brief gusty winds to near 45 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami... Hialeah... Fort Lauderdale... Pembroke Pines... Hollywood...
Miramar... Coral Springs... West Palm Beach... Pompano Beach...
Davie... Miami Beach... Plantation... sunrise... Boca Raton... Deerfield
Beach... Boynton Beach... Delray Beach... Homestead... Tamarac and
Wellington.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes. Move
indoors and stay away from windows.
257. MahFL
Quoting 247. tampabaymatt:




Wow 15 inches in CA.
Issued by MeteoAlarm
Miami, FL

8:06am EST, Fri Jan 15

... SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR BROWARD... PALM BEACH AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EST...

* AT 803 AM EST... DOPPLER RADAR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS PALM BEACH... BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIAMI... HIALEAH... FORT LAUDERDALE... PEMBROKE PINES... HOLLYWOOD... MIRAMAR... CORAL SPRINGS... WEST PALM BEACH... POMPANO BEACH... DAVIE... MIAMI BEACH... PLANTATION... SUNRISE... BOCA RATON... DEERFIELD BEACH... BOYNTON BEACH... DELRAY BEACH... HOMESTEAD... TAMARAC AND WELLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.
Quoting 255. Sfloridacat5:

Yesterday someone kept saying their was a 0% chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across central and southern Florida for today. I think he needs to leave the forecasting to the professionals.

From the Storm Prediction Center for Central and South Florida.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP INLAND
ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA
EARLY IN THE DAY. IT STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...OR IF IT WILL
TEND TO OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER WHICH WOULD
TEND TO MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BARRING
COMPLICATIONS FROM EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA COULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES.



Yeah whoever said that obviously was either just starting trouble, or doesn't really follow meteorology closely, model parameters were very strong on the low level jet, shear and upper support and that's what we have.

In fact, as you can see below via the SPC, the strength of the low level jet and sfc-1 km shear is easily supportive of strong to violent tornadoes using statistical parameters for tornado development. West coast Florida areas need to be thankful that this event followed rapidly on the heels a several day cold spell, and the fact there is already widespread showers and clouds ahead of the main line, limiting heating.






Otherwise, with event decent CAPE, this could have been a major severe event, . Even still, with this much shear and upper support and such a strong low level jet, we can't ignore a few cells becoming severe.
From TWC

In fact, the low-pressure system may strengthen fast enough to satisfy the criteria for bombogenesis, namely a drop in central pressure of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less.

In terms of the weather over Florida, here is the SPC chart for today issued late last night; not sure if they are going to update at some point this morning:




And the WPC chart and headline for today; lots of active weather across Conus at the moment:

Short Range Forecast Discussion...correction
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EST Fri Jan 15 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 15 2016 - 12Z Sun Jan 17 2016

...Snow showers to continue from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great
Lakes with very cold air arriving by Saturday...

...Heavy rainfall likely for portions of the Southeast and Carolina coasts
through tonight...

...Rain and mountain snow expected to impact the Northwestern U.S. through
the weekend...



Quoting 251. Grothar:




Good for Nor Cal......Fill Lake Shasta Movement!
Looks like the Eastern Azores are getting a hard time right now with the winds on the east side of the eye at about 100 KPH.
Temps are about 17/C on land.

Link
And finally the current national doppler; heavy rain headed towards the SE coast; typical of the El Nino cool and wet pattern for the Gulf-SE which finally appears to be fully in place.  Next stop will probably be several Gulf low Nor'easters on tap over the next several weeks:
National Weather Outlook

 



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
845 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

FLZ043-050-139-142-148-149-151-155-239-242-248-249 -251-151500-
COASTAL CITRUS FL-INLAND HERNANDO FL-INLAND PASCO FL-PINELLAS FL-
COASTAL LEVY FL-INLAND LEVY FL-INLAND CITRUS FL-COASTAL HERNANDO FL-
SUMTER FL-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH FL-COASTAL MANATEE FL-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH FL-COASTAL PASCO FL-
845 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HILLSBOROUGH...SUMTER...
HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...SOUTHEASTERN LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1000 AM EST...

AT 844 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF RAINBOW
LAKES ESTATES TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOMOSASSA TO 24 MILES WEST OF
HUDSON TO 47 MILES WEST OF HARBOR BLUFFS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMPA...SPRING HILL...CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...PLANT
CITY...TEMPLE TERRACE...SEMINOLE...NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
BROOKSVILLE...INVERNESS...WILDWOOD...DADE CITY...WILLISTON...
BUSHNELL...HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...THE VILLAGES...LUTZ AND FISH HAWK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
Well, I can certainly agree that it is highly unusual to see not only two simultaneous tropical systems in the Atlantic and Pacific, but for them both to be hurricanes, that's just surreal, especially when Alex becomes the earliest tropical cyclone on record to make a landfall, and in the Azores of all places

Not only that, but he anticipated track for the next few days is also highly anomalous, as no hurricane I know of has ever shown the interest to go form the Eastern to Western Atlantic. I was never expecting this, though Alex becoming a pre-season hurricane was an obvious certainty to occur, as was its tropical transition
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
335 AM PST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE PICTURE IS MORE MUDDLED FOR NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE PLUMES OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING TO AROUND 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THESE PLUMES OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL KEEP
NIGHTS WARMER. LESS CERTAIN ARE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
MOSTLY WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY TO THE NORTH THAT COULD TAP
THIS MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF IN BRINGING PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE OR LESS WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY OF THOSE
SHORTWAVES. IF ONE WERE TO BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WOULD BE GREATER GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

More hemming and hawwing by forecasters! if, could, possibly..........blah blah blah
All lows in the Northern Hemisphere, whether tropical, sub-tropical, or winter lows, eventually move toward the pole in the Northern Hemisphere. With Alex forming in the Central Atlantic, his eventual path off the NE was expected but unusual in terms of where the storm formed in the higher latitudes.


Here's the strange thing.. The SPC says severe weather expected to stay south of us here in North Florida, but radar is showing a squall line reforming in Gainsville, moving east. They have been downplaying this system from the start, but the NWS and local news stations has been on top of it. SPC says nothing but local news and NWS says strong to severe storms. Kind of odd.
According to local radar, the squall line has passed over me here in North Central Florida. No problems. Not much rain either. Maybe a half inch.
Quoting 273. Wacahootaman:

According to local radar, the squall line has passed over me here in North Central Florida. No problems. Not much rain either. Maybe a half inch.


Well considering it's moving 50 mph and it's only so thick, you would need like 8 inch per hour rainfall rates to get really heavy totals.
275. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 27 minHace 27 minutos Ver traducción
Latest ECMWF ENSO forecast calls for ~60% chance of neutral conditions and ~25% chance of La Nina by July. #ElNino
Quoting 260. Grothar:

From TWC

In fact, the low-pressure system may strengthen fast enough to satisfy the criteria for bombogenesis, namely a drop in central pressure of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less.


Good morning Gro..A small shift with the storms track would make a big difference..Interesting weather ahead.
The storms west of Fort Myers have been strengthening.
Good morning from Blue Mountain Beach

View on YouTube

Quoting 260. Grothar:

From TWC

In fact, the low-pressure system may strengthen fast enough to satisfy the criteria for bombogenesis, namely a drop in central pressure of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less.




I need new glasses.......thought it said blobogenesis!



Looks like Alex's remnants may be taking a trip to Canada..
Quoting 276. hydrus:

Good morning Gro..A small shift with the storms track would make a big difference..Interesting weather ahead.


So far all the models keep the low quite detached from the cold air. So even though this is a strong one, they are expecting mostly rain on the coastal areas.
Quoting 277. Abacosurf:

The storms west of Fort Myers have been strengthening.



That makes sense, given there is warmer, more unstable inflow to the south, whereas the Tampa Bay area and surrounding area had a SE wind trajectory blowing from already stable rain cool areas. Some areas like Punta Gorda have had 1-2 inches already and have been rain for hours. To have wind blowing from a stable rain cool area, and getting areas of rain before the main line moved through isn't conducive for severe weather, especially since it was already questionable if CAPE was going to be high enough.

For this reason, the best chance of severe weather is to the south, as the SPC has noted.

Quoting 279. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I need new glasses.......thought it said blobogenesis!


Lol.. (after checking on the WU blog yesterday I was looking at my FB page and I saw a cute picture of small child with a birthday cake and at first glance I thought the comment said, "Guess how odd I am today?".. ugh, but loving all the interesting non-blizzard related winter weather this year!! and of course: Happy Friday Everyone!
Alex is still a tropical cyclone, although it weakened to a tropical storm with 60-kt winds. See latest advisory.
Well it will be nice to get out and about today.Might as well enjoy N.Y.C while I can still see the skyline (forecast to rain later on).At least its better than a mega blizzard disrupting and shutting down everything.
Significant weather advisory for the development of funnel clouds
for western Palm Beach... northwestern Collier... Glades and Hendry
counties until 1045 am EST...

* at 944 am EST... Doppler radar indicated widespread showers across
portions of Collier... Glades... Hendry and Palm Beach counties.
Conditions are favorable for funnel cloud development this
morning. These showers may also produce brief gusty winds to near
45 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Naples... Belle Glade... Clewiston... Pahokee... South Bay... LaBelle...
Moore Haven... Immokalee... Golden Gate estates... Canal Point...
Lakeport... Palmdale... Lake Harbor... montura... Ave Maria... Buckhead
Ridge... vineyards... Belle Glade Camp... rotenberger wildlife Refuge
and west Toll Gate on Alligator alley.


Looks like it shot right between the gap between the Islands..
Hmm... is Pali going to regenerate? And will there be another subtropical cyclone in the South Atlantic?
271. hydrus
9:20 AM EST on January 15, 2016

Hows that worked out? Temperatures go back to being above average after next week headed into early February.This winter is practically lost and those charts have been worthless.Sorry to sound harsh but it is what it is.

Hopefully hurricane season makes up for this bland winter.
Absolutely pouring at my location in Tampa. Looks like I'm halfway through the squall line. Up to 0.55" now but winds aren't too bad.
Latest ATCF data (20160115 12UTC) for Pali:
CP, 01, 2016011512, , BEST, 0, 10N, 1737W, 20, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 180, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, S,
Rapid intensification probability for Tropical Disturbance Pali:
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Quoting 272. reedzone:

Here's the strange thing.. The SPC says severe weather expected to stay south of us here in North Florida, but radar is showing a squall line reforming in Gainsville, moving east. They have been downplaying this system from the start, but the NWS and local news stations has been on top of it. SPC says nothing but local news and NWS says strong to severe storms. Kind of odd.



No the SPC is has it right on, the NWS isn't disagreeing either, it's just the NWS can cover the more fine details, like mentioning strong thunderstorms vs severe thunderstorms.

The fact is, it was already already questionable whether there would be enough instability for severe weather, but given that winds have been blowing from rain cooled air to the south, and convergence is also limited due to the rain ongoing to the south, it makes sense that the SPC didn't have a watch or a slight risk.

BTW, if instability was higher, this could have been much more serious.
Quoting 275. JRRP:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 27 minHace 27 minutos Ver traducción
Latest ECMWF ENSO forecast calls for ~60% chance of neutral conditions and ~25% chance of La Nina by July. #ElNino


Great !
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC015-027-071-151545-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0003.160115T1508Z-160115T1545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
1008 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
CENTRAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 1007 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PINELAND...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA GORDA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE CORAL...PUNTA GORDA...PORT CHARLOTTE...CHARLOTTE COUNTY
AIRPORT...BABCOCK RANCH...BABCOCK WEBB WMA...PINELAND...PINE ISLAND
CENTER...BURNT STORE MARINA...SOLANA...CLEVELAND...BOKEELIA...
ROTONDA...PLACIDA...CHARLOTTE HARBOR...CHARLOTTE PARK...TROPICAL
GULF ACRES...PIRATE HARBOR AND HARBOUR HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 2671 8218 2669 8207 2686 8205 2691 8210
2694 8206 2697 8210 2693 8217 2679 8215
2677 8219 2666 8224 2668 8227 2681 8220
2678 8227 2688 8232 2714 8183 2690 8169
2659 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1507Z 240DEG 39KT 2676 8231

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$



SW Florida has really gotten the bulk of these events lately, this area has already had 1-2 inches of rain going into all this, Punta Gorda could end up with 2.5 inches and given this storm system is racing east at 50 mph, that's an impressive total.
1.5" of rain on the south side of Fort Myers and lots of rain to come.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151512Z - 151715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE ACROSS SRN FL MAY SEE A
RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE WIND OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
TODAY...AND A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CELLS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF POSSIBLY
BEING SEVERE NOW APPROACHING THE FORT MYERS VICINITY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ROBUST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER
70S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 F. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER GRADUALLY WITH TIME...FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN A W-E ORIENTED ZONE
WHICH IS ALSO ALONG A WEAK PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BOUNDARY.

I leave you all with this image.
Active tropical cyclones and disturbances:
Tropical Cyclone Victor (08F)

Tropical Storm Alex (01L)

Tropical Disturbance Pali (01C)
Quoting 295. Sfloridacat5:

1.5" of rain on the south side of Fort Myers and lots of rain to come.


The main squall line just passed me, and I'm at 0.98". Just light rain now and winds have really calmed down.
Quoting 290. tampabaymatt:

Absolutely pouring at my location in Tampa. Looks like I'm halfway through the squall line. Up to 0.55" now but winds aren't too bad.


Rained really hard and got about an inch. Already just about over. Nothing severe, just a good rain.
Seems to be some rotation in the squall line right here in Flagler County.. Just heavy rain and gusty winds right now.
Fresh EUMETSAT case study on Alex with some nice loops (mp4):
Hurricane Alex - earliest hurricane in 60 years
(From the end of this article): The development of Alex is very typical for a subtropical hurricane: a slow-moving (stationary), cold-core, extra-tropical cyclone converts to a warm-core, tropical cyclone over an area with relatively high SSTs (but not necessarily 26 C).
It should be noted that (so-called) Medicanes fall into the same category of subtropical hurricanes. One of the most spectacular Medicane cases is described in the 2011 case study Development of a tropical storm in the Mediterranean Sea.


ISS flyover now as youtube-video:



Source twitter.
Quoting 299. tampabaymatt:



The main squall line just passed me, and I'm at 0.98". Just light rain now and winds have really calmed down.


Yeah, it looks like the main punch of moisture is moving into S.W. Florida similar to the last event over the weekend. Local news is saying we could see 3-4" of rain.
Quoting 290. tampabaymatt:

Absolutely pouring at my location in Tampa. Looks like I'm halfway through the squall line. Up to 0.55" now but winds aren't too bad.


I got 0.97 up here, the forecast was over 1 inch and up to 2 inches, but that seemed overdone giving how this storm system was absolutely racing through. The rain did fall very heavily for a time, it just didn't last. We didn't get much wind here either. I'm happy with the total we got though, it put's around 2 inches for the month so far which is good.
If this system wasn't moving so darn fast, rainfall totals would have been a lot higher, Brooksville for example recorded 0.88 from the squall line, and it blasted by the airport in only about 5-8 minutes. That's a heck of a lot of rain in 5-8 minutes, especially in January.

My parents said it poured really heavy there too to near whiteout conditions causing some street flooding but they said the line last only about 7-8 minutes, which makes sense given the line is racing through at 40-50 mph. Also they mentioned that they had a few big thunder claps but not too much lightning, and also some pretty gusty winds of probably about 30-40 mph, but nothing severe.

There is a strong low level jet of 60-70 mph not far above the surface, but thankfully the low CAPE environment kept the squall line in check and prevented it from tapping those winds to the surface, not to mention the dangerously high levels of helicity. We lucked out with the lack of instability.

This event was forecast exceptionally well given the lack of model agreement, and the fine line between this being a major severe event, and one with only a couple cells going severe.

Quoting 299. tampabaymatt:



The main squall line just passed me, and I'm at 0.98". Just light rain now and winds have really calmed down.


That's surprisingly a lot in such a short time given the thickness of the line and how fast it was moving, especially for January, my parents house has a CoCoRaHS like me so I won't get a report from them of the total rainfall until later. They got lucky and had a heavy cell blow through ahead of the main line as well.
Quoting 303. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it looks like the main punch of moisture is moving into S.W. Florida similar to the last event over the weekend. Local news is saying we could see 3-4" of rain.



Yeah that makes sense, as the line will slow a bit as it heads south, the convection is also thicker and deeper down there due to more instability available. Rainfall looks to have already exceeded 2 inches in Punta Gorda.

Hi, everyone. I hope there won't be any deadly tornadoes in Florida today, and that everyone's safe there.
Meanwhile, young Victor isn't wasting time (unlike Pali) as it seems bound to turn into a furious cyclone soon.

From the JTWC, Warning number 2, 0900Z, 01/15 (next warning will be issued at 2100Z):
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150517Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NEARLY WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. (...) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TOP OF THE LLCC, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS AND (SSTS) AND VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY POLEWARD, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72.
SPC AC 151259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH AND WESTERN FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

...FL...

EARLY THIS MORNING A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
NWRN PENINSULA SWD INTO THE ERN GULF MOVING EAST AT AROUND 40 KT.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH
LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES...BUT THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INLAND IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT. A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF QLCS
TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER NWRN FL WITHIN 50 MILES OR SO OF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
FARTHER INLAND
DUE TO PRESENCE OF A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER...RESULTING IN WEAKER
CONVERGENCE AS PRIMARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GA.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN FL...FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE
IN PLACE FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
RAOB DATA FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO
POOR LAPSE RATES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SRN THROUGH CNTRL PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

NEVERTHELESS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CLOUD
BREAKS...SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING.


Florida really lucked out this time, and the SPC called it well to not go overboard despite very impressive shear and a strong low level jet. Most don't realized this, but if we would have had a cap and a longer period for destabilization, even moderate CAPE in the 1000-2000 J/KG range could have warranted a moderate risk and possibly strong to violent tornadoes. Thankfully the instability was very weak to near non-existent as expected so far.
Quoting 305. Jedkins01:



That's surprisingly a lot in such a short time given the thickness of the line and how fast it was moving, especially for January, my parents house has a CoCoRaHS like me so I won't get a report from them of the total rainfall until later. They got lucky and had a heavy cell blow through ahead of the main line as well.


It has stopped raining at my location and I finished with 1.02". Today is the first day I've recorded over an inch in one day since Sept. 6th.
Just got a tornado warning on my phone for my area.
Tornado warning for central Lee County (Fort Myers area)

80 mph rotation on NBC2 radar heading for south Cape Coral to south Ft. Myers.
Pali's deepest convection is centered around 1N, 172.2W as of 1500 UTC; this is 1.5 degrees east of the ATCF fix. My coordinates coincide with the area nearest to maximum lower convergence and upper divergence, 850 mb and 700 mb vorticity maxima, and lowest shear (about 5~10 knots according to CIMSS). In contrast, the 500 mb vorticity maximum is nearer to the ATCF fix.

I have a question. Which height do you use to locate the center of a low pressure area?
Here we go again, poor Ft. Myers:


Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
FLC071-151615-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0003.160115T1552Z-160115T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
1052 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1051 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR IONA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
CORAL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HARLEM HEIGHTS AND IONA AROUND 1105 AM EST.
CYPRESS LAKE...VILLAS...PINE MANOR AND MCGREGOR AROUND 1110 AM EST.
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AIRPORT...SAN CARLOS PARK...THREE OAKS AND EAST
DUNBAR AROUND 1115 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SAINT
JAMES CITY...FORT MYERS VILLAS...ESTERO...PAGE PARK...GATEWAY...PUNTA
RASSA...WHISKEY CREEK...PAGE FIELD AIRPORT...TICE AND FORT MYERS
SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF ON OR NEAR THE WATERS NEAR PUNTA RASSA...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER
AND MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE
INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2649 8200 2643 8205 2643 8211 2648 8213
2650 8210 2651 8213 2654 8210 2654 8207
2656 8206 2672 8171 2647 8160 2641 8185
2646 8187 2643 8191 2641 8187 2640 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 248DEG 33KT 2647 8204

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1035 AM UNTIL
500 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM FORT MEYERS TO WEST PALM BEACH
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO
OR TWO...AS WELL AS ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
MEYERS FLORIDA TO 115 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT MEYERS
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Current tornado warning near Ft. Myers; those squall lines are going to pack a little punch across parts of Florida as daytime heating increases.

Southeast sector loop
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC095-097-117-151700-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0001.160115T1554Z-160115T1700Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1054 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL NOON EST

* AT 1053 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HORIZON
WEST...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...KISSIMMEE...SANFORD...APOPKA AND ALTAMONTE SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
"Well defined circulation" heading through south Lee County (San Carlos Park, Fort Myers Villas)
Quoting 317. nrtiwlnvragn:

NWS Miami





I love how the NWS Issues a tornado watch after there's a tornado warning - classic.
Quoting 318. Sfloridacat5:

"Well defined circulation" heading through south Lee County (San Carlos Park, Fort Myers Villas)


Storms appear to be training over the Ft. Myers area now, flooding might start to become a significant issue if a training event occurs.
Interesting look to the Florida event with the low now centered near North Georgia; basically a land cane with the feeder bands scraping Florida to the South:

Southeast sector
Quoting 319. Sfloridacat5:



I love how the NWS Issues a tornado watch after there's a tornado warning - classic.


I think the watch came out about 15 minutes before the warning, post 314.
Okay,

Just who is in charge here?

: )
Radar Indicated tornado heading towards Pine Manor, Fort Myers Villas, Page Park , San Carlos Park, Gateway
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 1054 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1052 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL - KTBW 1008 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

Here we go again, "faster than previously projected":
Northwest Atlantic Ocean may get warmer, sooner.
by Staff Writers, Woods Hole MA (SPX) Jan 15, 2016.
Link
Also featured on Climate Central's website, what this new research means for the Gulf of Maine: Link
Quoting 322. nrtiwlnvragn:



I think the watch came out about 15 minutes before the warning, post 314.


Yeah, I think the beat it by about 15 minutes. That's after not expecting a watch to be issued earlier this morning.
Storm damage in the Tampa Bay area


Quoting 329. tampabaymatt:

Storm damage in the Tampa Bay area



Thats some nice firewood. Looks like a standing dead oak on the bottom.
66 days till Spring.

Quoting 327. 999Ai2016:

Here we go again, "faster than previously projected":
Northwest Atlantic Ocean may get warmer, sooner.
by Staff Writers, Woods Hole MA (SPX) Jan 15, 2016.
Link
(means more sea level rise for the northeastern U.S. coast, sooner than predicted before)


Earlier I was complaining about the models being inaccurate and someone seemed to disgusted by that.

" Over the past ten years, the Gulf of Maine has warmed faster than 99% of the global ocean. Recent studies indicate that the enhanced warming is associated with a northerly shift in the Gulf Stream. Changes in the distribution and species composition are already evident, but existing climate change projections are based on warming scenarios from coarse resolution models. Warming of 3 to 4 degrees C (as much as 5.4 to 7.2 degrees F), projected by NOAA GFDL's CM2.6, will likely cause more extreme effects on the ecosystem.

Global climate models used to project global and regional climate change generally have coarse ocean and atmospheric resolution. The higher resolution model better reflects the ocean circulation and sea floor bathymetry in smaller, complex areas like the Gulf of Maine and the U.S. Northeast Shelf. According to the study, the models project that ocean warming will be even more pronounced than suggested by coarser models under increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2."

While some might be alarmed by the fact that the oceans are warming faster than previously thought, as one with a little wealth, and as one who would like to keep it, I am alarmed that the models were inaccurate.

I am not saying that climate change isn't happening. What I am saying is I cannot adapt to it because I don't know what I am adapting too.

I would like to buy a few acres of pine forest in East Texas, but if the dry line is going to move east, the profits from my timber crop may go up in smoke.

Cheers
Qazulight
Tornado warning out of Tampa has been dropped, but local NBC radar is still showing rotation and 80 mph wind just above the ground in central Lee County.
It should be moving right over my location in Gateway in a few minutes. I'll see what kind of gusts I get on my anemometer.
New weather pictures! No big CBs yet, but some interesting clouds...
Quoting 333. Sfloridacat5:

Tornado warning out of Tampa has been dropped, but local NBC radar is still showing rotation and 80 mph wind just above the ground in central Lee County.
It should be moving right over my location in Gateway in a few minutes. I'll see what kind of gusts I get on my anemometer.


I had some strong gusts here in Iona, tons and tons of rain tho, its like a mini tropical storm...
The line just went through downtown Orlando, the executive airport reported sustained winds of 31 with a gust up to 43. Picked up 1.58 inches so far up to 2.54 for the year and we are only halfway through January. Wild.
:-D No comments:
GPS vultures swoop down on illegal dumps in Peru
Lima (AFP) Jan 11, 2016 Link
"Captain Phoenix, Captain Aella and the other vultures drafted into the environment ministry's program are now the protagonists in a creative social media campaign, which aims to raise awareness about the problem and get Lima residents to report illegal dumps and throw away less trash."
OMG!!!!
I just got an 81 mph wind on my anemometer. Branches were flying around and the fence was thrown down. It was insane.
Umm, first this name and then all this rain :-)
Raining in Pembrokeshire village, Eglwyswrw, for 81 days
BBC, 1 hour ago
A Pembrokeshire village has endured 81 consecutive days of rain, making it possibly the longest run of bad weather in Britain for 92 years.
But it would need to rain for another nine days if residents at Eglwyswrw, near Cardigan, wanted to beat a record 89 days set in Scotland in 1923.
Eglwyswrw farmer John Davies said it was a record villagers wished to avoid, as the rain had become "grinding". ...


Eglwyswrw in Wikipedia.
Sunday looks interesting.. Warmer air and more instability. NAM 12Z
This Tampa profile shows why the I4 corridor really lucked out. Check out the strong vertical shear that SPC mentioned, helicity profiles were more than strong enough for violent tornadoes, and look at that veering profile with height and wind strength at 850 mb. If there was 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE, it could have been really ugly. It's amazing with nearly no CAPE that convection was still as strong as it was today. The lack of any instability basically lowered the supercell threat dramatically.

It's worth noting that this sounding was also launched way before the most impressive shear profiles were present just before the complex moved in, so the shear was likely even more impressive than this.

Thunderstorms have been training into Lee County for the past six hours or so. I'm in North Naples just south of the edge of that train. It's sprinkled off and on for many hours, but so far we've picked up a trace. Meanwhile, just five or ten miles north, some locations have seen several inches this morning.



(I'm about midway between the 'N' in 'Naples' and the county line.)
Quoting 338. Sfloridacat5:

OMG!!!!
I just got an 81 mph wind on my anemometer. Branches were flying around and the fence was thrown down. It was insane.
Did you report the wind and damage to NWS?
I honestly thought we were going to lose our back windows. Branches were being thrown up against the windows. Local news is showing downed trees in my neighborhood. People think it was a tornado, but I'm not sure. It was about 30 seconds of 70-80 mph winds.
Quoting 342. Jedkins01:

This Tampa profile shows why the I4 corridor really lucked out. Check out the strong vertical shear that SPC mentioned, helicity profiles were more than strong enough for violent tornadoes, and look at that veering profile with height and wind strength at 850 mb. If there was 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE, it could have been really ugly. It's amazing with nearly no CAPE that convection was still as strong as it was today. The lack of any instability basically lowered the supercell threat dramatically.

It's worth noting that this sounding was also launched way before the most impressive shear profiles were present just before the complex moved in, so the shear was likely even more impressive than this.




What do the CAPE profiles look for Sunday for the peninsula?
Quoting 344. Barefootontherocks:

Did you report the wind and damage to NWS?


I reported it to our local news and they mentioned it on the news just a minute ago. I'll report it to the NWS.
Quoting 338. Sfloridacat5:

OMG!!!!
I just got an 81 mph wind on my anemometer. Branches were flying around and the fence was thrown down. It was insane.


Wow a bit stronger than at my place. I don't have an anemometer on my netatmo wx station yet but I'd have to say about 60 mph here. Actually ordered an anemometer for it yesterday but it has to be shipped from England so about two weeks for shipping. Is ur station on WU?
That latest tornado warning is huge compared to the radar look of the southern cell.
Hmmmm. Maybe this is why...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
NORTHERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EST

* AT 1127 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LEHIGH ACRES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE WARNING AREA THAT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.


Link to real time tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings from College of DuPage
Quoting 289. washingtonian115:

271. hydrus
9:20 AM EST on January 15, 2016

Hows that worked out? Temperatures go back to being above average after next week headed into early February.This winter is practically lost and those charts have been worthless.Sorry to sound harsh but it is what it is.

Hopefully hurricane season makes up for this bland winter.
Hello Wash..This is sort of uncharted territory, so I expect the unexpected..I post the info I do because it is the best indication of winter weather for the east coast when the AO, NAO, and MJO is in our part of the world. My comments to you are my opinions on what might happen, when i,m wrong, I do not make excuses. You seem a bit pessimistic toward my comments, and i am not sure why. I will continue to post what I believe, and learn all I can in the process. Not trying to sound harsh. Hurricane season could be very active. There are a couple of things the may affect the MDR. Its wait and see.
Quoting 348. Sfloridacat5:



I reported it to our local news and they mentioned it on the news just a minute ago. I'll report it to the NWS.
Oh, excellent! Ground reports help the forecasters a lot.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1140 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

FLZ045-047-053-147-151730-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OSCEOLA FL-
ORANGE FL-
1140 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EST...

AT 1137 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CHRISTMAS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TITUSVILLE...COCOA...ROCKLEDGE...CAPE CANAVERAL AND VIERA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

&&
Nothing yet on the SPC report chart (last 3 hours) but the information should start to trickle in (called into SPC by the local NWS offices or otherwise) later this afternoon: maybe still waiting on confirmed wind gusts over 65 knots and/or verification of a tornado on the ground per their criteria.

last3hours Reports Graphic
Quoting 343. Neapolitan:

Thunderstorms have been training into Lee County for the past six hours or so. I'm in North Naples just south of the edge of that train. It's sprinkled off and on for many hours, but so far we've picked up a trace. Meanwhile, just five or ten miles north, some locations have seen several inches this morning.
The PWS closest to me - Iona - showed 2.88" a few minutes ago. One in St James city had 2.65; one on Sanibel had 3.43. Lots and lots of rain and wind here, but I don't see any damage.
The GGEM 12z and UKMET 12z look encouraging for next week with system coming from the Southern Plains. I think the GFS is still having trouble figuring out all of the moving parts.
Quoting 170. Xandra:

Higher and Higher!

Global mean sea level change observed by the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1/2 satellite altimeters during the period 1993–2015.


Image source: AVISO

----------

See also: Higher and Higher by Tamino

----------

Jason-3: Launching Sunday!

Jason-3 January 17, 2016 Launch Date Announced

The Jason-3 mission is scheduled for launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on January 17, 2016 at 10:42:18 a.m. PST from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The launch window allows for a second attempt on January 18 at 10:31:04 a.m. PST

----------

Expanded Version-Jason 3-Continuing Decades of Ocean Surface Measurements



358. vis0

Quoting 280. Articuno:




Looks like Alex's remnants may be taking a trip to Canada..

Img below is what i though would happen as to the next 2 month wxtrend** which i state began ~Jan 6-8th 2016, posted on my zilly blog in late Dec 2015..."oh my its already 4## ppm? how fast a year goes by" (we'll no longer count how time flies by by the months that have passed by but by the rising ppm numbers.  by the way lots of bys.

views expressed in the image are solely that of nut vis0 , WxUs not responsible for any damage caused by anyone choking on a chicken-bone as they pointed and laffed at the predictions.
Now sing to the tune of Dem Bones |Wikipedia| but use CO2 instead in layman terms as... 1 and a 2 and "Pi"...

The excess greed connected to the gimmy fuel needs, the fuel needs connected to produce the CO2 exhaust needs...

**remember what i call "wxTrend" does not mean the weather flips into that trend instantly, it begins to show itself at its (wxtrend) start but does not reach wxtrend maturity till 29 days in
Oh, my... What a spin!

Victor, South Pacific.
Quoting 331. Patrap:

66 days till Spring.


But only 25 to Mardi Gras :) Happy Bday, he kept his name, so a 1st in 56!

Meanwhile in S C IL, been overcast w/ some rain though appears to be ready to clear out soon. 44 temp and dew pt, 29.47" w/ 5-15 SW winds. Forecast temps for Mon. morning continue to drop, may get our first zero or even negative of the year.
361. vis0
.

Quoting 357. Patrap:


Quoting 170. Xandra:
Higher and Higher!
Link
Mean sea level (cm):

...That's just insane. As time goes by, IPCC estimates of 21th century SLR indeed seem far too conservative.
Quoting 340. reedzone:

Sunday looks interesting.. Warmer air and more instability. NAM 12Z

Im here in FT lauderdale, and the local mets have been saying all week that both today and Sunday are looking dangerous
1.60" here in Longwood with lots of tree debri all over the place. Power just came back on after being off for 2 hours.
Quoting 361. vis0:






I love you....you nut case !!!!
Quoting 360. dabirds:

But only 25 to Mardi Gras :) Happy Bday, he kept his name, so a 1st in 56!

Meanwhile in S C IL, been overcast w/ some rain though appears to be ready to clear out soon. 44 temp and dew pt, 29.47" w/ 5-15 SW winds. Forecast temps for Mon. morning continue to drop, may get our first zero or even negative of the year.


Thank you dabirds, itsa good day here.


Fat Tuesday is in sight fo sho'
Quoting 364. StormTrackerScott:

1.60" here in Longwood with lots of tree debri all over the place. Power just came back on after being off for 2 hours.


Don't forget to clean out those gutters tomorrow !!
There was a 60 mph wind gust at Southwest Regional Airport in south Fort Myers. That's about 5 miles from my location. Trees down and pool cage damage in my neighborhood. Basically what you would see with 60-80 mph winds. I could not believe I got an 81 mph gust and the wind was pegged at over 70 mph constant for about 30 seconds.
Just plain old rain in downtown miami. Those strong storms should fizzle by the time they get here per weather reports. I hope so, because I 95 will be a nightmare if there's severe wx.
Happy birthday Patrap. You have a blessed and wonderful day.
Quoting 327. 999Ai2016:

Here we go again, "faster than previously projected":
Northwest Atlantic Ocean may get warmer, sooner.
by Staff Writers, Woods Hole MA (SPX) Jan 15, 2016.
Link
Also featured on Climate Central's website, what this new research means for the Gulf of Maine: Link

From that article is this:
Over the past ten years, the Gulf of Maine has warmed faster than 99% of the global ocean. Recent studies indicate that the enhanced warming is associated with a northerly shift in the Gulf Stream. Changes in the distribution and species composition are already evident, but existing climate change projections are based on warming scenarios from coarse resolution models. Warming of 3 to 4 degrees C (as much as 5.4 to 7.2 degrees F), projected by NOAA GFDL's CM2.6, will likely cause more extreme effects on the ecosystem.

I didn't see how much the NE coastal SSTs outside the gulf of Maine are expected to warm up, but accelerating sea levels, and added warmth from the Gulf Stream will affect storms and flooding in that area.
A tree down in my neighborhood (Gateway) in Ft Myers.

Current conditions at
Fort Myers, Page Field (KFMY)
Lat: 26.58°NLon: 81.86°WElev: 16ft.

Thunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Rain Fog and Windy

68°F

20°C
Humidity 100%
Wind Speed W 26 G 45 mph
Barometer 29.78 in (1008.5 mb)
Dewpoint 68°F (20°C)
Visibility 0.50 mi
Last update 15 Jan 11:53 am EST

This site had 2.74 since the last report, and 1.25 fell in an extremely short time as the line blew through, rainfall rates are crazy high with this system for January.
Quoting 368. Sfloridacat5:

There was a 60 mph wind gust at Southwest Regional Airport in south Fort Myers. That's about 5 miles from my location. Trees down and pool cage damage in my neighborhood. Basically what you would see with 60-80 mph winds. I could not believe I got an 81 mph gust and the wind was pegged at over 70 mph constant for about 30 seconds.


Dang you got an 80 mph gust even with your sheltered station? It's a good thing trees and power lines are designed to handle wind better down there, here in Tallahassee and most places in the country, that results in structural damage and numerous trees and power lines down, that's like a derecho!
Quoting 323. Patrap:

Okay,

Just who is in charge here?

: )

Happy birthday Patrap.
Look like a daily record for rainfall at Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers.

Precipitation
Precipitation 2.59 in (average) 0.06 in 2.58 in (1991)
Month to date precipitation (average) 0.95
Year to date precipitation (average) 0.95
Sea Level Pressure
Sea Level Pressure 29.81 in
Wind
Wind Speed 12 mph ()
Max Wind Speed 40 mph
Max Gust Speed 60 mph
Visibility 5.0 miles
Events
Quoting 374. Jedkins01:



Dang you got an 80 mph gust even with your sheltered station? It's a good thing trees and power lines are designed to handle wind better down there, here in Tallahassee and most places in the country, that results in structural damage and numerous trees and power lines down, that's like a derecho!


Yes, I think I was getting a wind funnel effect with the wind blowing between my house and the building associated with the country club about 50 ft away. The wind was just flying by sideways with no shelter effect. If anything I was probably getting a wind funnel effect. Everything was just blowing sideways. Thought I might lose the back windows which were being slammed by debris and small branches. I've got roll down storm shutters on those windows but had no time to roll them down.
The atmosphere has cleared out nicely in the Tampa Bay area, now we get to do this all over again on Sunday.

Quoting 339. barbamz:

Umm, first this name and then all this rain :-)
Raining in Pembrokeshire village, Eglwyswrw, for 81 days
BBC, 1 hour ago
A Pembrokeshire village has endured 81 consecutive days of rain, making it possibly the longest run of bad weather in Britain for 92 years.
But it would need to rain for another nine days if residents at Eglwyswrw, near Cardigan, wanted to beat a record 89 days set in Scotland in 1923.
Eglwyswrw farmer John Davies said it was a record villagers wished to avoid, as the rain had become "grinding". ...


Eglwyswrw in Wikipedia.


Eglwyswrw Pronounced
Quoting 367. KuCommando:



Don't forget to clean out those gutters tomorrow !!


Nah..most likely Sunday's storms will blow away all the debris out of the gutters.
Quoting 373. Jedkins01:


Current conditions at
Fort Myers, Page Field (KFMY)
Lat: 26.58°NLon: 81.86°WElev: 16ft.

Thunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Rain Fog and Windy

68°F

20°C
Humidity 100%
Wind Speed W 26 G 45 mph
Barometer 29.78 in (1008.5 mb)
Dewpoint 68°F (20°C)
Visibility 0.50 mi
Last update 15 Jan 11:53 am EST

This site had 2.74 since the last report, and 1.25 fell in an extremely short time as the line blew through, rainfall rates are crazy high with this system for January.


I picked up 1.35" in just 30 minutes
Quoting 374. Jedkins01:



Dang you got an 80 mph gust even with your sheltered station? It's a good thing trees and power lines are designed to handle wind better down there, here in Tallahassee and most places in the country, that results in structural damage and numerous trees and power lines down, that's like a derecho!


Much of Altamonte over by where I work lost power as there are lots of limbs down. Winds were actually roaring outside that's how strong the wind got.
It's Treasure Coast's turn:

Special Statement
Statement as of 12:32 PM EST on January 15, 2016

... Significant weather advisory for St. Lucie... Martin...
Okeechobee... Indian River... southeastern Osceola and southwestern
Brevard counties until 130 PM EST...

At 1228 PM EST... Doppler radar was tracking showers and isolated
thunderstorms across southern Brevard... southeast Osceola... western
Indian River and Okeechobee counties. The storms were
moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 to 55 mph will be possible with the stronger
showers and isolated storms. Locally heavy rainfall amounts to one
to two inches will cause ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding of poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include... Port Saint Lucie... Palm
Bay... Melbourne... Vero Beach... Fort Drum... Indiantown and Fort
Pierce.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The primary threats will be cloud to ground lightning and strong wind
gusts... which can cause unsecured objects to blow around... snap tree
limbs... cause power outages or capsize small boats. Heavy rainfall
will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the
storm passes.

These storms may intensify... so be certain to monitor local radio
and TV stations... as well as local cable TV outlets... for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for portions
of east central Florida.

Lat... Lon 2716 8071 2721 8081 2714 8087 2749 8120
2770 8115 2834 8066 2817 8062 2824 8066
2824 8067 2819 8066 2766 8038 2717 8019
2725 8032 2724 8032 2717 8026 2715 8015
2697 8008 2696 8061
time... Mot... loc 1728z 263deg 39kt 2779 8091


15
4.6" of rain reported in Estero (South Ft. Myers region).
Sirens have just gone off in St. Lucie County.

So far only 1.49 inches of rain.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1250 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EST

* AT 1249 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BELLE GLADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLE GLADE...SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE CAMP...LION COUNTRY SAFARI
PARK AND OKEELANTA.
12Z Euro showing hurricane force wind gust Saturday Night across western FL as the Euro bombs a 995mb low near Cedar Key. WOW!!!

Quoting 381. StormTrackerScott:



I picked up 1.35" in just 30 minutes


That's a lot for January, especially given how fast this storm system was moving, Punta Gorda picked up 3.37 so far and there have been local reports in SW Florida of close to 5 inches! Ironically the southern counties were supposed to get the lease rain, other than that this event was well forecast in terms of severe weather timing, placement, and amount. And this was a very difficult forecast given model inconsistency and also the trickiness of forecasting low level instability.
Quoting 388. Jedkins01:



That's a lot for January, especially given how fast this storm system was moving, Punta Gorda picked up 3.37 so far and there have been local reports in SW Florida of close to 5 inches! Ironically the southern counties were supposed to get the lease rain, other than that this event was well forecast in terms of severe weather timing, placement, and amount. And this was a very difficult forecast given model inconsistency and also the trickiness of forecasting low level instability.



Holy smokes do you see the 12Z Euro running now. The model is forecasting bomb type development in the Eastern Gulf Saturday Night with hurricane force wind gusts for the west coast of FL. Likely a much higher risk for severe weather too.

Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro showing hurricane force wind gust Saturday Night across western FL as the Euro bombs a 995mb low near Cedar Key. WOW!!!




Dang man that's crazy, I haven't been checking the models this morning since I've been focused on the current, if that verifies, it could get ugly in Central and South Florida given the recent trend is even deeper than before. In fact, the Euro was the one model that was weaker in earlier runs, now that it has trended much stronger in recent ones, we have support from both major models. Even though lapse rates won't be impressive with a lack of a cold upper disturbance, overall instability should at least be a bit better than today given the warmer airmass for today and tomorrow. The longer warm air advection period should allow for higher CAPE in Central FL than we saw today, even if it only ends up being as unstable as SW FL was today, as we've seen with the tornado warnings and wind speed reports, it doesn't take much instability with strong dynamics to make some nasty severe weather.



Low topped winter supercells in winter can still be impressive.
From all the cloud cover recently.......I'm betting the inter mountain west is getting some good snow results.

Quoting 390. Jedkins01:



Dang man that's crazy, I haven't been checking the models this morning since I've been focused on the current, if that verifies, it could get ugly in Central and South Florida given the recent trend is even deeper than before. In fact, the Euro was the one model that was weaker in earlier runs, now that it has trended much stronger in recent ones, we have support from both major models. Even though lapse rates won't be impressive with a lack of a cold upper disturbance, overall instability should at least be a bit better than today given the warmer airmass for today and tomorrow. The longer warm air advection period should allow for higher CAPE in Central FL than we saw today, even if it only ends up being as unstable as SW FL was today, as we've seen with the tornado warnings and wind speed reports, it doesn't take much instability with strong dynamics to make some nasty severe weather.



Low topped winter supercells in winter can still be impressive.


Is the system on Sunday supposed to move as quickly as the one today?
Quoting 390. Jedkins01:



Dang man that's crazy, I haven't been checking the models this morning since I've been focused on the current, if that verifies, it could get ugly in Central and South Florida given the recent trend is even deeper than before. In fact, the Euro was the one model that was weaker in earlier runs, now that it has trended much stronger in recent ones, we have support from both major models. Even though lapse rates won't be impressive with a lack of a cold upper disturbance, overall instability should at least be a bit better than today given the warmer airmass for today and tomorrow. The longer warm air advection period should allow for higher CAPE in Central FL than we saw today, even if it only ends up being as unstable as SW FL was today, as we've seen with the tornado warnings and wind speed reports, it doesn't take much instability with strong dynamics to make some nasty severe weather.



Low topped winter supercells in winter can still be impressive.


Last I checked 500mb temps are expected to dip to -14C per the Euro & GFS. That's pretty cold in the mid levels.
Quoting 389. StormTrackerScott:



Holy smokes do you see the 12Z Euro running now. The model is forecasting bomb type development in the Eastern Gulf Saturday Night with hurricane force wind gusts for the west coast of FL. Likely a much higher risk for severe weather too.




Yeah this would definitely be an even high severe weather threat if it holds true. The tornado threat would likely also be higher for Central Florida than today was, given a greater time for warmer air mass recovery.

We'll have to say how things trend into tomorrow as well.
Quoting 393. StormTrackerScott:



Last I checked 500mb temps are expected to dip to -14C per the Euro & GFS. That's pretty cold in the mid levels.


Well it's cool enough but not particularly cold for January, still though, some of the other parameters could easily make up for lapse rates, and the lapse rate does look to be at least a little better for this system than today, which could be all that is needed.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EST

* AT 110 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LION COUNTRY SAFARI PARK...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANAL POINT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST PALM BEACH...JUPITER...PALM BEACH GARDENS...RIVIERA BEACH AND
PALM BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

&&
Line of storms just blew thru here. Patrick Air Force Base had 40kt winds, NASA Shuttle Strip had 35kts. Peak for my PWS was 20 mph. Had a little over 2 inches of rain, it is still coming down.


I've got to agree with the uncharted territory. Models haven't been all that on lately. It does seem best to keep looking and bringing the various solutions/models and learn even if they & or we are wrong.

Like the other day ncstorm noting gfs had the storm for the south over the coming weekend with possible snow, GEOS-5 had had it a few runs with cold wrapped in too, but looked like epic doom for the Northeast & only 96hrs out. The AO/NAO models hydrus posts jumped on board. But then the Atlantic Swirl we were watching didn't just go sub-tropical it turned into a hurricane and totally changed course, toward Greenland, to get up with another low and should move somewhat west. That shoves the east coast runner of doom off the Mid-Atlantic out to sea. CMC & ECMWF picked up on it too, looks much more south with near no snow. May see more severe weather across the Southeast on Sunday..


Longer term forecast for the the low toiling off the SW side of Greenland it to consume not just Alex but several other lows, til it grows and moves up off the east side of Greenland in ~170hrstoward the north pole. Shows alot of heat at the surface being brought up there and the polar vortex getting split. We will see.
Quoting 394. Jedkins01:



Yeah this would definitely be an even high severe weather threat if it holds true. The tornado threat would likely also be higher for Central Florida than today was, given a greater time for warmer air mass recovery.

We'll have to say how things trend into tomorrow as well.
How would things be in Fort Lauderdale
Quoting 392. tampabaymatt:



Is the system on Sunday supposed to move as quickly as the one today?


Yes same as today very fast mover but much stronger it appears.
Quoting 395. Jedkins01:



Well it's cool enough but not particularly cold for January, still though, some of the other parameters could easily make up for lapse rates, and the lapse rate does look to be at least a little better for this system than today, which could be all that is needed.


Next week Treasure Coast should experience high temps in the 60s and low temps near 50. Not bad for January.
A few tornado warnings active for S FL:

Slumming the other storm reports..
Out of NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
0745 AM LIGHTNING LAKE CITY 30.19N 82.64W
01/15/2016 COLUMBIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE AT
WESTSIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IN LAKE CITY. TEACHERS AIDE
STRUCK...TRANSPORTED TO LOCAL HOSPITAL. EXTENT/SEVERITY
OF INJURY UNKNOWN.

From NWS TAMPA BAY AREA
Street flooding across Lee County, tree branches down in LEHIGH ACRES. DESOTO COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED ROOF DAMAGE AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR ARCADIA. TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN GATEWAY.. A METAL ROOF RIPPED OFF A BUILDING IN VENICE AND LANDED ON CARS IN THE PARKING LOTS. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED. 60mph wind in Lee County. Pea size hail in HERNANDO.

From NWS MIAMI winds were reported near and over 50mph in NAPLES and at the SEMINOLE TRIBE RESERVATION IN IMMOKALEE.
Quoting 397. Skyepony:

Line of storms just blew thru here. Patrick Air Force Base had 40kt winds, NASA Shuttle Strip had 35kts. Peak for my PWS was 20 mph. Had a little over 2 inches of rain, it is still coming down.


I've got to agree with the uncharted territory. Models haven't been all that on lately. It does seem best to keep looking and bringing the various solutions/models and learn even if they & or we are wrong.

Like the other day ncstorm noting gfs had the storm for the south over the coming weekend with possible snow, GEOS-5 had had it a few runs with cold wrapped in too, but looked like epic doom for the Northeast & only 96hrs out. The AO/NAO models hydrus posts jumped on board. But then the Atlantic Swirl we were watching didn't just go sub-tropical it turned into a hurricane and totally changed course, toward Greenland, to get up with another low and should move somewhat west. That shoves the east coast runner of doom off the Mid-Atlantic out to sea. CMC & ECMWF picked up on it too, looks much more south with near no snow. May see more severe weather across the Southeast on Sunday..


Longer term forecast for the the low toiling off the SW side of Greenland it to consume not just Alex but several other lows, til it grows and moves up off the east side of Greenland in ~170hrstoward the north pole. Shows alot of heat at the surface being brought up there and the polar vortex getting split. We will see.


The 00z Euro Run had the snow coverage more confined to the mountains of NC and some of Virgina..

the 12z Euro has now come in with the exception of Eastern NC with 1-2 inches of snow for NC...the models are handling this system poorly..I just hope I'm not coming back home in hazard conditions as I am a southerner and know nothing about driving in icy conditions..I do know how to get milk and bread though..
Euro still showing another big storm the end of next week across FL. Time to buckle up it appears as we are in for a rough ride for several months to come.

Euro 192hrs.
Quoting 404. StormTrackerScott:

Euro still showing another big storm the end of next week across FL. Time to buckle up it appears as we are in for a rough ride for several months to come.

Euro 192hrs.



...several months? I gave this pattern a week or two max before the AO rebounds.
Quoting 343. Neapolitan:

Thunderstorms have been training into Lee County for the past six hours or so. I'm in North Naples just south of the edge of that train. It's sprinkled off and on for many hours, but so far we've picked up a trace. Meanwhile, just five or ten miles north, some locations have seen several inches this morning.



(I'm about midway between the 'N' in 'Naples' and the county line.)
Near Pine Ridge Rd?
Damage image from Fort Myers. I don't know what was destroyed to make all that debris. But you can see scar marks in the palm tree from debris striking it.
Quoting 403. ncstorm:



The 00z Euro Run had the snow coverage more confined to the mountains of NC and some of Virgina..

the 12z Euro has now come in with the exception of Eastern NC with 1-2 inches of snow for NC...the models are handling this system poorly..I just hope I'm not coming back home in hazard conditions as I am a southerner and know nothing about driving in icy conditions..I do know how to get milk and bread though..

GEOS-5 is still showing some snow for NC on Sunday too. Not the total doom it had for you and not snow to the north gulf coast. There is more models agreeing today but yeah I wouldn't make solid plans yet. May need to come back early in the morning. At least (for you) it's been trending south, with more gulf origins and a little later.

Things getting a bit eerie here in Fort Lauderdale
Wow, exciting weather in central FL today! Out here just west of the CA/NV border, my PWS gage showed 0.37 in. of melted snow for the storm which ended around midnight. It tends to not be so accurate when the snow is wind-driven (which this storm was), but the 6 in. on the driveway this morning seemed to match that OK.

Northern CA and Central Sierra are just above average for the date in terms of % of April 1 snow water content; Southern Sierra is slightly below average. CA Snow Water Content
Quoting 392. tampabaymatt:



Is the system on Sunday supposed to move as quickly as the one today?


Yep same fast progress, and despite the fast progress, there could be some areas that see heavy rain totals like today despite the fast progress that would naturally seem to prevent that.

Quoting 409. Skyepony:


GEOS-5 is still showing some snow for NC on Sunday too. Not the total doom it had for you and not snow to the north gulf coast. There is more models agreeing today but yeah I wouldn't make solid plans yet. May need to come back early in the morning. At least (for you) it's been trending south, with more gulf origins and a little later.




That outline of high pressure from SW of Soo Cal up into Utah is the silhouette of the Old Laughing Lady, laughing at those 2 Hurricane strength Pacific Lows and telling them you are not getting down here big boys! Bummer!
Quoting 398. Camerooski:

How would things be in Fort Lauderdale


Probably a similar threat or worse, since model tracks take the storm track further south and stronger than this one, which would mean stronger dynamics in SE FL relative to today. It's hard to say for sure though, similar to this system, models have been flip flopping on strength and track, right now the track is for a low stronger and further south than today's which would generally mean your area would have a higher threat for heavy rain and severe weather than today. But it's not set yet.
Quoting 408. Sfloridacat5:

Damage image from Fort Myers. I don't know what was destroyed to make all that debris. But you can see scar marks in the palm tree from debris striking it.



Considering those 75-85 mph gusts, it makes sense there would be some damage even though the better infrastructure and frequency of hurricanes would reduce the damage one would expect from thunderstorm winds that strong in most places in the U.S.

Did you submit that wind speed as a local storm report the NWS?
Quoting 414. Jedkins01:



Probably a similar threat or worse, since model tracks take the storm track further south and stronger than this one, which would mean stronger dynamics in SE FL relative to today. It's hard to say for sure though, similar to this system, models have been flip flopping on strength and track, right now the track is for a low stronger and further south than today's which would generally mean your area would have a higher threat for heavy rain and severe weather than today. But it's not set yet.
Awesome thank you very much, I will be sure to get some good footage of the storms, I have the squall line about to rip through me now!
Quoting 408. Sfloridacat5:

Damage image from Fort Myers. I don't know what was destroyed to make all that debris. But you can see scar marks in the palm tree from debris striking it.

NWS Tampa says there was a tornado reported this morning not too many miles from last week's event:

None of the models are handling the upcoming pattern correctly, and have severe run to run inconsistencies. Best to go with the ensembles until the time draws nearer which is what the government agencies are doing.
Quoting 408. Sfloridacat5:

Damage image from Fort Myers. I don't know what was destroyed to make all that debris. But you can see scar marks in the palm tree from debris striking it.



Is that a crack going down the wall near the front door? Or is it something sticking out of the wood debris?

There are lots of roof shingles scattered around, but I can't make out what the rest of the debris is, and don't know why it's piled up against the house in mostly one big heap.
Quoting 415. Jedkins01:



Considering those 75-85 mph gusts, it makes sense there would be some damage even though the better infrastructure and frequency of hurricanes would reduce the damage one would expect from thunderstorm winds that strong in most places in the U.S.

Did you submit that wind speed as a local storm report the NWS?


I did, but I don't think they will count it due to it being an unofficial reading from a PWS. But plenty of storm reports from the neighborhood about trees down and pool cages destroyed.
Quoting 414. Jedkins01:



Probably a similar threat or worse, since model tracks take the storm track further south and stronger than this one, which would mean stronger dynamics in SE FL relative to today. It's hard to say for sure though, similar to this system, models have been flip flopping on strength and track, right now the track is for a low stronger and further south than today's which would generally mean your area would have a higher threat for heavy rain and severe weather than today. But it's not set yet.

GEOS-5 has shown the one coming Sunday as way more severe for more than a week now. The way it trends south & the way Ft Myers seems to have a bullseye on it..

That damage looks like it is a roof blown off and to pieces. Maybe an older roof that has been re-shingled. The boards sticking out of the ground is sort of impressive.
Quoting 420. Sfloridacat5:



I did, but I don't think they will count it due to it being an unofficial reading from a PWS. But plenty of storm reports from the neighborhood about trees down and pool cages destroyed.

Saw atleast one PWS reading in the storm reports..
Quoting 419. tampabaymatt:



Is that a crack going down the wall near the front door? Or is it something sticking out of the wood debris?

There are lots of roof shingles scattered around, but I can't make out what the rest of the debris is, and don't know why it's piled up against the house in mostly one big heap.
Maybe a fence.
Quoting 413. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That outline of high pressure from SW of Soo Cal up into Utah is the silhouette of the Old Laughing Lady, laughing at those 2 Hurricane strength Pacific Lows and telling them you are not getting down here big boys! Bummer!

I've been watching that & do feel bad for SoCal.. I just don't see any wow heavy rain for them for the next 10 days..
---Red team owns the Arctic... Blue team tries to apply the containment doctrine.---
Quoting 389. StormTrackerScott:



Holy smokes do you see the 12Z Euro running now. The model is forecasting bomb type development in the Eastern Gulf Saturday Night with hurricane force wind gusts for the west coast of FL. Likely a much higher risk for severe weather too.




Jan-March 1983 was the winter for deep midlatitude type lows in the Gulf! The anomalous subtropical jet on the southwest boundary of the LFM, the "high resolution" grid point model of that time caused
several failures (the model just aborted ) due to either parameterisation issues or CFL (Courant Fredrichs Lewey) constraints being exceeded. I was at GFDL at the time rather than at NMC (the old name for NCEP) and heard about it secondhand. But 985 baroclinic lows in the GOMEX were incredible!

I don't remember as many or as remarkable occurrences of these in 1997-98 but I don't remember much of the first quarter of 1998 (newborn twins)
Here's a screen shot of my Vantage Vue box showing my 81 mph gust at 11:24 am


I've mentioned it before that it always underestimates the wind speed when compared to other locations. But this time it got blasted good.
This picture isn't from today, but shows the setup I've got. It's on the side of the house about 6' off the ground.
Quoting 377. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, I think I was getting a wind funnel effect with the wind blowing between my house and the building associated with the country club about 50 ft away. The wind was just flying by sideways with no shelter effect. If anything I was probably getting a wind funnel effect. Everything was just blowing sideways. Thought I might lose the back windows which were being slammed by debris and small branches. I've got roll down storm shutters on those windows but had no time to roll them down.

Wow, interesting. That's the thing about severe thunderstorm wind paths, they only cover a small area, so one can go a long tine without getting any severe weather on one's immediate street, then eventually the luck runs out.

Back in my parents neighborhood, we had some neighbors that always brought up how they thought that severe thunderstorms aren't really a big deal and that the winds aren't bad. I tried to explain that just because we got a warning many times before without damage, doesn't mean that luck won't run out. In 2011 on April fools day(the same day the fun and sun event in Lakeland got completely ruined by hurricane force wind gusts), we got hit with a tornadic thunderstorm which definitely was cycling by the time it reach our neighborhood, while the confirmed tornado had lifted by reaching us, it still came in with severe downburst winds I'd estimate to be about 70-75 mph. A couple homes ended up with some minor roof damage in my neighborhood, a few nearby power poles were snapped at the middle causing power flashes and knocking power out for hours, also tree branches and other debris were in my street and a couple healthy trees were knocked clean over.

It could have been worse though, there was tornado path damage less than a mile away rated at 110 mph EF1 and damaged the airport a couple miles to the northeast, and 105 mph downburst ripped a roof clean off a hotel over on Indian Rocks Beach just a few miles west of us, blew windows out and knocked a number of trees and powerlines down.
This lady that was the neighbor I mentioned earlier that was convinced thunderstorm warnings weren't a big deal came over scared and convinced a tornado hit, I told no it wasn't and it was severe thunderstorm winds, I did finally convince her and she said she would never ignore severe thunderstorm warnings again.
Quoting 427. Sfloridacat5:

Here's a screen shot of my Vantage Vue box showing my 81 mph gust at 11:24 am


I've mentioned it before that it always underestimates the wind speed when compared to other locations. But this time it got blasted good.
This picture isn't from today, but shows the setup I've got. It's on the side of the house about 6' off the ground.




Send that to the NWS in Tampa! Thats a high end wind report right there....
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
AVALANCHE WARNING
U.S. FOREST SERVICE SIERRA AVALANCHE CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
745 AM PST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE U.S.
FOREST SERVICE SIERRA AVALANCHE CENTER.

THE U.S. FOREST SERVICE SIERRA AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
BACKCOUNTY AVALANCHE WARNING.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY

* AFFECTED AREA...FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN YUBA
PASS ON THE NORTH AND EBBETTS PASS ON THE SOUTH. THIS INCLUDES
THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE.

* REASON...ON SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES, CONSIDERABLE
AVALANCHE DANGER EXISTS ON NORTHWEST, NORTH, NORTHEAST, EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ASPECTS AT ALL ELEVATIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
WIND SLABS AND PERSISTENT SLABS. LARGE HUMAN TRIGGERED
AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
UNUSUAL AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. AVALANCHES ON STEEPER SLOPES
COULD BE REMOTELY TRIGGERED BY A PERSON STANDING IN LOWER ANGLE
TERRAIN OR MAY BE TRIGGERED IN PLACES TRADITIONALLY CONSIDERED
SAFE. CAREFUL SNOWPACK EVALUATION, CAUTIOUS ROUTE FINDING AND
CONSERVATIVE DECISION MAKING ARE ESSENTIAL.

Nevertheless, more snow please. Keep it coming.
Quoting 426. georgevandenberghe:



Jan-March 1983 was the winter for deep midlatitude type lows in the Gulf! The anomalous subtropical jet on the southwest boundary of the LFM, the "high resolution" grid point model of that time caused
several failures (the model just aborted ) due to either parameterisation issues or CFL (Courant Fredrichs Lewey) constraints being exceeded. I was at GFDL at the time rather than at NMC (the old name for NCEP) and heard about it secondhand. But 985 baroclinic lows in the GOMEX were incredible!

I don't remember as many or as remarkable occurrences of these in 1997-98 but I don't remember much of the first quarter of 1998 (newborn twins)


Don't forget the sub 980 March 1993 "superstorm" event in the gulf, it produced a pressure reading below 980 mb here in Tallahassee which is still a station low pressure record here. That storm caused massive amounts of damage as well as many injuries and deaths in Florida from a combination of storm surge, widespread severe thunderstorm winds, and tornadoes.
I'm sorry to see the wind damage in Florida. Hopefully nobody was hurt. As far as I was able to understand Portuguese news, hurricane Alex passed the Azores without causing severe damage. Good.

Snow in higher parts of Germany today (of course not at my place in the Rhine valley ;-) And in the Alps more avalanches are reported. Yesterday afternoon in Randa/Switzerland:



Spectacular video shows Swiss avalanche danger
The Local, Switzerland, Published: 15 Jan 2016 11:03 GMT 01:00
Quoting 421. Skyepony:


GEOS-5 has shown the one coming Sunday as way more severe for more than a week now. The way it trends south & the way Ft Myers seems to have a bullseye on it..

That damage looks like it is a roof blown off and to pieces. Maybe an older roof that has been re-shingled. The boards sticking out of the ground is sort of impressive.


Yeah it was likely hurricane force gusts just from my amateur assessment, and that's interesting to hear, as I never had looked at that goes model the last several days. I guess if this ends up verifying it has performed the best the last several days. The euro didn't event have the 2nd system at all in it's forecast 4 days ago.
Quoting 417. Neapolitan:

NWS Tampa says there was a tornado reported this morning not too many miles from last week's event:




Yeah, they added this to the news report.
"Based on photos and radar data, The National Weather Service in Tampa is saying a partially blown-off roof on Feather Sound Drive in Fort Myers at 11:10 a.m. Friday was caused by an "unconfirmed tornado."
Quoting 419. tampabaymatt:



Is that a crack going down the wall near the front door? Or is it something sticking out of the wood debris?

There are lots of roof shingles scattered around, but I can't make out what the rest of the debris is, and don't know why it's piled up against the house in mostly one big heap.


When I right click and "view image" it looks like a piece of metal sticking out of the piece of wood, possibly a drip-edge molding. It does not appear to be a wall crack.
AL, 01, 2016011518, , BEST, 0, 415N, 277W, 60, 986, EX
While we're at it:
Mountain climbing more dangerous due to climate change, January 15, 2016.
Link
"In his research Arnaud Temme of Wageningen University gathered information on safety of climbing routes from so called climbing guides. These guides are written by very experienced mountaineers that describe the climbing routes in a certain area, in this case the Bernese Alps in Switzerland. (...) The oldest guide out of the dozens of guides used in the research was written 146 years ago. This allowed Temme to record the changes for a longer period and link these with climate change."
Quoting 419. tampabaymatt:



Is that a crack going down the wall near the front door? Or is it something sticking out of the wood debris?

There are lots of roof shingles scattered around, but I can't make out what the rest of the debris is, and don't know why it's piled up against the house in mostly one big heap.
Looks like something attached to what appears to be a bent over fence post rather than a crack. Most of the debris looks like the remains of a fence that used to be standing right in the foreground of the picture, mixed in with shingles and some roof decking. Pretty bad damage for straight line winds.

The low went almost directly over the house about 0600 is now just to the NE of me. My low barometric pressure reading was 29.44" at 0628. I had 0.88" of rain and a high gust of 41 mph as thunderstorms developed just before the low passed. The barometer is up to 29.61" now. I lost power for about an hour just after the squall line went through. There some scattered reports of trees down and other relatively minor damage around town but nothing compared to Ft. Myers. This system was supposed to go through as just some light rain so it definitely overperformed. You can see the squall line out ahead of the front as depicted on the weather map. It's the line with two dots still progressing southward in Florida, so I imagine the severe weather isn't over yet.

Quoting 437. Tazmanian:

AL, 01, 2016011518, , BEST, 0, 415N, 277W, 60, 986, EX
All gone, huh Taz buddy.
There's some reports coming in that there may have been another tornado near Cape Coral again. Of course, given the strength of some of the down burst winds, it'll take some survey time to determine if and where there was a tornado.
Quoting 440. Andrebrooks:

All gone, huh Taz buddy.



when the next storm XD
Strong wording coming out of Norman for Saturday Night into Sunday across FL as models are indicating a 65 knt Low Level Jet.

...CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY IS FORECAST
TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE START OF
THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S DEG F N TO 70
DEG F S WILL OVERSPREAD THE W COAST OF FL IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFYING SSWLY H92-H85 FLOW OF
45-65 KT. VERY STRONG ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE
THE PBL FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING
MUCAPE RANGING 1000-250 J PER KG FROM S TO N. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION/HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT
A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND MOVING INTO THE
W COAST CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS AND THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE
17/06-12Z PERIOD. SIZABLE HODOGRAPHS /200-300 M2 PER S2 0-1 SRH/
BENEATH 70+ KT H5 SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ISOLD DMGG
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK APPEAR GREATEST ACROSS THE
W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA AND AREAS INTO SWRN FL WHERE HIGHER STORM
COVERAGE IS FORECAST.


Quoting 430. BayFog:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
AVALANCHE WARNING
U.S. FOREST SERVICE SIERRA AVALANCHE CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
745 AM PST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE U.S.
FOREST SERVICE SIERRA AVALANCHE CENTER.

THE U.S. FOREST SERVICE SIERRA AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
BACKCOUNTY AVALANCHE WARNING.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY

* AFFECTED AREA...FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN YUBA
PASS ON THE NORTH AND EBBETTS PASS ON THE SOUTH. THIS INCLUDES
THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE.

* REASON...ON SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES, CONSIDERABLE
AVALANCHE DANGER EXISTS ON NORTHWEST, NORTH, NORTHEAST, EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ASPECTS AT ALL ELEVATIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
WIND SLABS AND PERSISTENT SLABS. LARGE HUMAN TRIGGERED
AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
UNUSUAL AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. AVALANCHES ON STEEPER SLOPES
COULD BE REMOTELY TRIGGERED BY A PERSON STANDING IN LOWER ANGLE
TERRAIN OR MAY BE TRIGGERED IN PLACES TRADITIONALLY CONSIDERED
SAFE. CAREFUL SNOWPACK EVALUATION, CAUTIOUS ROUTE FINDING AND
CONSERVATIVE DECISION MAKING ARE ESSENTIAL.

Nevertheless, more snow please. Keep it coming.

That dern avvy warning kept me from my planned back country ski trip up Castle Peak today. Instead, I stepped into the skinny skis for a tour behind my house with the doggy. Beautiful bluebird skies today.
Quoting 434. Jedkins01:



Yeah it was likely hurricane force gusts just from my amateur assessment, and that's interesting to hear, as I never had looked at that goes model the last several days. I guess if this ends up verifying it has performed the best the last several days. The euro didn't event have the 2nd system at all in it's forecast 4 days ago.
The NAM and CMC actually had the low track just about nailed. Both of them had the low going inland over SE AL and then into Georgia, which is almost exactly what happened. The ECMWF and GFS had the low tracking across Florida. The NAM also showed the squall line out ahead of the front. The GFS had the biggest fail, having the low shoot off into the Atlantic after crossing Florida. The GEOS-5 model uses input from the GFDL and the NAM so it split the difference.
Quoting 439. sar2401:

Looks like something attached to what appears to be a bent over fence post rather than a crack. Most of the debris looks like the remains of a fence that used to be standing right in the foreground of the picture, mixed in with shingles and some roof decking. Pretty bad damage for straight line winds.

The low went almost directly over the house about 0600 is now just to the NE of me. My low barometric pressure reading was 29.44" at 0628. I had 0.88" of rain and a high gust of 41 mph as thunderstorms developed just before the low passed. The barometer is up to 29.61" now. I lost power for about an hour just after the squall line went through. There some scattered reports of trees down and other relatively minor damage around town but nothing compared to Ft. Myers. This system was supposed to go through as just some light rain so it definitely overperformed. You can see the squall line out ahead of the front as depicted on the weather map. It's the line with two dots still progressing southward in Florida, so imagine the severe weather isn't over yet.




I ended up with 1.02" today, which is fairly close to your total. That's surprising given this was supposed to be mainly confined to a FL event. Other than some very heavy rain when the squall line moved through, I didn't have many other severe factors at my location. My daughter's day care has been without power for hours due to a downed power line, so there must have been some strong wind gusts around the area. But, nothing compared to Ft. Myers.

I don't think it's a wall crack either, but if it was, that would be amazing that flying debris could cause that severe of a crack to the exterior.
Quoting 445. oldnewmex:


That dern avvy warning kept me from my planned back country ski trip up Castle Peak today. Instead, I stepped into the skinny skis for a tour behind my house with the doggy. Beautiful bluebird skies today.
Smart move considering the number of avalanche deaths we've had in previous El Nino winters. There was nothing I hated worse than avalanche rescue which, in reality, was always a body recovery..
Quoting 442. Tazmanian:




when the next storm XD
I would say in April man. What you think. :)
From Reuters: "Alex, a rare January hurricane, weakened to a tropical storm and made landfall in the Azores on Friday with winds estimated at 70 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm toppled trees, cut power and flooded homes, but damage was less than feared. No injuries or deaths were immediately reported. Alex hit the island of Terceira at 7:15 a.m. EST Friday, the center said. Wind and rain from the storm will die down as the storm races away to the north at 28 mph. No other land masses are threatened by the storm, which will transition to a regular, non-tropical storm over the next day or two. The Azores are part of Portugal and located about 850 miles west of the mainland."
You don't see this often after an initial Peak of an El-Nino. To have a El-Nino peak 2 times is something we may never see again.

Quoting 447. tampabaymatt:



I ended up with 1.02" today, which is fairly close to your total. That's surprising given this was supposed to be mainly confined to a FL event. Other than some very heavy rain when the squall line moved through, I didn't have many other severe factors at my location. My daughter's day care has been without power for hours due to a downed power line, so there must have been some strong wind gusts around the area. But, nothing compared to Ft. Myers.

I don't think it's a wall crack either, but if it was, that would be amazing that flying debris could cause that severe of a crack to the exterior.
Without being there, I can't really tell about the line either, but it looks too big to be a crack in the stucco. Might be though, but only someone with their hand on the wall can tell. I was following the low track early this morning and watching the barometer fall like a rock. It went from 29.62 to 29.42 in about 25 minutes just before the low went though. I don't know how fast the low is moving but it must really be clocking. After the squall line went, the rain ended almost immediately. I had some light rain starting about 0300, but the vast majority of the 0.88" fell at the same time the pressure drop occured. A torrential downpour, wind gusts that were near 40 mph for about 5 minutes, and that was it, except for not having power for an hour. I don't think I got any downburst winds. It seems more likely this was a pressure wave coincident with the low passing. Whatever it was, there was more excitement than was originally forecast.
Quoting 427. Sfloridacat5:

Here's a screen shot of my Vantage Vue box showing my 81 mph gust at 11:24 am


I've mentioned it before that it always underestimates the wind speed when compared to other locations. But this time it got blasted good.
This picture isn't from today, but shows the setup I've got. It's on the side of the house about 6' off the ground.

Dang. That was quite a wind gust for an anemometer located so low to the ground. Mine's on a 10 foot mast on the roof, so it's about 30 feet off the ground, which is close to the supposedly ideal height. The highest wind gust I've ever measured at this location is 54 mph in July, 2014 from a thunderstorm. The wind must have been coming from just the right direction to give you that kind of wind. I'm glad to hear you came through it mostly OK though.
Quoting 451. StormTrackerScott:

You don't see this often after an initial Peak of an El-Nino. To have a El-Nino peak 2 times is something we may never see again.


New downwelling kelvin wave but with less heat content, the wpac is already colder than normal so there's a limit to how warm El nino can get.
just updated

From the SPC storm reports:

1610 5 ESE CAPE CORAL LEE FL 2655 8191 BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT AND A PICTURE OF A ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF A CONDO ON FEATHER SOUND DRIVE IN THE WHISKEY CREEK AREA AS WELL AS DAMAGE TO PLAM TREES. T (TBW)

They should make a law forbidding the planting of those plam trees. They always fall over in stroms. :-)
Quoting 454. Gearsts:

New downwelling kelvin wave but with less heat content, the wpac is already colder than normal so there's a limit to how warm El nino can get.

I know it sounds a lot more dramatic to say a double peak is just something we've never seen before, but we have. We've had not only double peaks but triple peaks. El Nino is not a linear event.

Quoting 454. Gearsts:

New downwelling kelvin wave but with less heat content, the wpac is already colder than normal so there's a limit to how warm El nino can get.



I suspect this latest WWB is going to fire up a quite the Downwelling Kelvin Wave but as you said once this passes come later in April then its game over for El-Nino as there is a stock pile of cooler anomalies lurking to the west. Interesting to see nonetheless though as typically you don't see this occur after a peak of a super strong ENSO.
Quoting 447. tampabaymatt:



I ended up with 1.02" today, which is fairly close to your total. That's surprising given this was supposed to be mainly confined to a FL event. Other than some very heavy rain when the squall line moved through, I didn't have many other severe factors at my location. My daughter's day care has been without power for hours due to a downed power line, so there must have been some strong wind gusts around the area. But, nothing compared to Ft. Myers.

I don't think it's a wall crack either, but if it was, that would be amazing that flying debris could cause that severe of a crack to the exterior.


Well the heaviest rains were expected to be up here but most areas saw around an inch, Central and South Florida were expected to get mostly around a half inch with localized 1 inch totals due to the fast movement of the system, but there was a large swath of 2-3 inches with locally 4-5 inches across SW Florida stretching NE to the east coast.

SW Florida ended up getting the heaviest rains instead of us, and most areas in Central and South Florida ended with near 1 inch or more, though a few areas did see less. Given the fast speed, it's amazing how heavy the rain totals were. If this system had been slow moving, rain totals could have easily been 4-6 inches over a large area.
The heavier than expected totals were likely because moisture return ended up being higher than expected. The forecast PW was about 1.3-1.5 inches, but it ended up reaching 1.7-2.0 inches which is near the record percentile for this tie of year.
Quoting 408. Sfloridacat5:

Damage image from Fort Myers. I don't know what was destroyed to make all that debris. But you can see scar marks in the palm tree from debris striking it.



Google maps
13117 Feather Sound Dr, Fort Meyers
Click street view for a "before" image.
Quoting 419. tampabaymatt:



Is that a crack going down the wall near the front door? Or is it something sticking out of the wood debris?

There are lots of roof shingles scattered around, but I can't make out what the rest of the debris is, and don't know why it's piled up against the house in mostly one big heap.


Definitely not a crack. If enlarging the pic there's a metal looking piece of material which pierces the soffit/eave or whatever the proper roofing terminology is (I'm not a roofing expert). There also seems to be another piece of metal material just above and to the right of the building number piercing the roof area. I'd be curious if this is a condemned structure and the condition prior to the photo. Looks like the entrance way is boarded up.

Street view is from May 2013 so hard telling what occurred the past 32 months.
Took pictures of the statue of liberty and the view as we went into the crown (Now I'm trying o find out how to upload pictures here).After that we went to see the 9/11 memorial and all the memories came from that day of what I was doing and where I was when I heard the news of New York city being under attack.The museum is rather nice and the falls are huger in person than what you see on T.V.You should definitely take visit if you are in the area.Its about 24 dollars for admission (Tax I think was included can't fully remember).This evening we see a broad way show while enjoying dinner in Times Square.
Quoting 453. sar2401:

Dang. That was quite a wind gust for an anemometer located so low to the ground. Mine's on a 10 foot mast on the roof, so it's about 30 feet off the ground, which is close to the supposedly ideal height. The highest wind gust I've ever measured at this location is 54 mph in July, 2014 from a thunderstorm. The wind must have been coming from just the right direction to give you that kind of wind. I'm glad to hear you came through it mostly OK though.
Yeah, I actually live on the golf course and I've got about a 1/4 mile to 1/2 mile fetch of flat clear land if the wind comes in from the right direction. Because branches and debris was smashing into the back windows, I would say the wind was coming in right off the golf course taking advantage of that nice long uninterrupted fetch. The wind stripped the leaves off the top half of the bushes. I haven't seen that from a thunderstorm before.
Everyone have a safe weather weekend; the front has moved so quickly across Florida and has almost cleared the State but the NE Part of Conus is under the gun now thanks to the ongoing trajectory of the low.  See Yall sometime next week.


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Quoting 453. sar2401:

Dang. That was quite a wind gust for an anemometer located so low to the ground. Mine's on a 10 foot mast on the roof, so it's about 30 feet off the ground, which is close to the supposedly ideal height. The highest wind gust I've ever measured at this location is 54 mph in July, 2014 from a thunderstorm. The wind must have been coming from just the right direction to give you that kind of wind. I'm glad to hear you came through it mostly OK though.

I want one of those things!
I have an assortment of indicators to tell me how high the wind speed is.
We had a large windmill of about 30 feet high out at the farm but the winds of last month tore it from its moorings, it crashed to the ground, causing itself a great deal of damage and broke one of the 2 cms steel anchor cables which we had bolted to the base of a 500 year old olive tree, which was as to be expected undamaged by the event.
We now have to rely on the 2000 Watt solar system, batteries, inverters etc. for non utility based power.

We had winds of about 268KPH last year in northern Spain which is about 166 MPH.
466. Wrass
I live in SW Cape Coral. This is getting old. However guys have the Gut between now And !!! March 30 this Tornado stuff is going to Ramp Up.???
Does anyone on here know how to get their Netatmo weather station "claimed" as per this blog?: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/PWSmet/netatmo-st ations-on-weather-underground
I've been trying for like a month now with no success or reply. Any suggestions?
Not too exciting but this is what my fence looks like now on the south side of my yard.
Quoting 466. Wrass:

I live in SW Cape Coral. This is getting old. However guys have the Gut between now And !!! March 30 this Tornado stuff is going to Ramp Up.???


For the past 20 years or so (the time I've been in the area) the south Cape has been the hot spot for tornadoes. I really haven't hypothesized a reason for it, but something about the change in the coastline from Sanible to Fort Myers Beach has to come into play.
7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area, strange that Sunday's rain chance is only 60%

Quoting 468. Sfloridacat5:

Not too exciting but this is what my fence looks like now on the south side of my yard.



I have limbs down all over my yard some quite large. My Oak trees took a beating and it appears Saturday Night into Sunday's storm could be even stronger. El-Nino in full effect now across FL.
Quoting 460. blowedhardputupwet:



Google maps
13117 Feather Sound Dr, Fort Meyers
Click street view for a "before" image.


I believe the debris came from this apartment complex. Part of the roof blew off. I just know it's in the same area as the other picture. Yellow tape is telling people stay away.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A HIGH
SURF WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST
SUNDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...VERY LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER WAVES WILL IMPACT
THE COASTLINE SATURDAY MORNING... WITH PERIODS OF 22 TO 28
SECONDS AND BUILDING SWELLS. THEN.. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL OF
16 TO 20 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 18 TO 21 SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE COASTLINE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

* TIMING...VERY LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER WAVES WILL IMPACT THE
COASTLINE BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE LARGER SWELL
WILL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME WAVE RUN UP IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WAVES WITH
LONG LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVE SETS... INCREASING THE RISK OF DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SNEAKER WAVES... AND BEING WASHED INTO SEA
BY A WAVE. SMALL VESSELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY BE PUSHED
INTO COASTAL ROCKS. INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING
HIGH TIDE.

Surfs up. Mavericks is perking up, altho westerly swells aren't the best; they will be getting up to 30 plus feet.

Storm warnings are hoisted for the outer waters of the PacNW including the California north coast. All in all, Sunday thru Monday will be a bad time to be out in the ocean in almost any vessel.
The negative AO and wet El-Nino are going to get together some time this winter, most likely in February, to bring likely prodigious snowfall for the continental. Maybe not, but hard to see this not happening. Up here in Wisconsin. I miss December. Winter finally arrived in January.
Quoting 473. Sfloridacat5:



I believe the debris came from this apartment complex. Part of the roof blew off.



Yep, 312 Feather Sound Dr.
Quoting 471. StormTrackerScott:



I have limbs down all over my yard some quite large. My Oak trees took a beating and it appears Saturday Night into Sunday's storm could be even stronger. El-Nino in full effect now across FL.


Yeah, it's really kicking in. We had severe weather Saturday night and now again only 6 days later.

Pacific jetstream clocked at 232 mph (202 knots) at its maximum located just west of the Dateline along about 40 N.
Phys.org/news:
- NASA provides in-depth analysis of unusual Tropical Storm Alex. January 15, 2016. Link
- Tropical Cyclone Victor born in South Pacific Ocean, Cook Islands on alert. January 15, 2016. Link

Jet prog for Tuesday: the Hose orientation, lined up between Hawaii and SF.
Quoting 475. DeepSeaRising:

The negative AO and wet El-Nino are going to get together some time this winter, most likely in February, to bring likely prodigious snowfall for the continental. Maybe not, but hard to see this not happening. Up here in Wisconsin. I miss December. Winter finally arrived in January.


El Nino 1997-98 delivered prodigious liquid to the Eastern Seaboard cities. Prodigious snowfalls occurred in the mountains to our west though and points in the Central and S Central Appalachians had a record snowy winter while DC metro at 2mm tied the record for least snow set in another Nino winter 1972-3. 1972-3 was disappointing for snow lovers even in the mountains though.

1982-3 delivered a huge blizzard for the big seaboard cities Valentines day weekend.

Quoting 433. barbamz:

I'm sorry to see the wind damage in Florida. Hopefully nobody was hurt. As far as I was able to understand Portuguese news, hurricane Alex passed the Azores without causing severe damage. Good.

Snow in higher parts of Germany today (of course not at my place in the Rhine valley ;-) And in the Alps more avalanches are reported. Yesterday afternoon in Randa/Switzerland:



Spectacular video shows Swiss avalanche danger
The Local, Switzerland, Published: 15 Jan 2016 11:03 GMT 01:00
Wow,, how do you say REVERSE! in Swedish?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
CrownWeather sounding the alarm for Saturday night- Southwest Florida
it's a pay-for site so I can't post publicly
but I have permission with locals as needed-

wumail
Quoting 388. Jedkins01:



That's a lot for January, especially given how fast this storm system was moving, Punta Gorda picked up 3.37 so far and there have been local reports in SW Florida of close to 5 inches! Ironically the southern counties were supposed to get the lease rain, other than that this event was well forecast in terms of severe weather timing, placement, and amount. And this was a very difficult forecast given model inconsistency and also the trickiness of forecasting low level instability.



There's two kinds of convection forecasters.

The ones who can't forecast it
The ones who know they can't forecast it.

Those are some long periods, wow. It is going to be filling in harbors and inlets that normally would be passable.

Quoting 474. BayFog:

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A HIGH
SURF WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST
SUNDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...VERY LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER WAVES WILL IMPACT
THE COASTLINE SATURDAY MORNING... WITH PERIODS OF 22 TO 28
SECONDS AND BUILDING SWELLS. THEN.. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL OF
16 TO 20 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 18 TO 21 SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE COASTLINE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

* TIMING...VERY LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER WAVES WILL IMPACT THE
COASTLINE BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE LARGER SWELL
WILL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME WAVE RUN UP IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WAVES WITH
LONG LULLS IN BETWEEN WAVE SETS... INCREASING THE RISK OF DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS... LARGE SNEAKER WAVES... AND BEING WASHED INTO SEA
BY A WAVE. SMALL VESSELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY BE PUSHED
INTO COASTAL ROCKS. INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING
HIGH TIDE.

Surfs up. Mavericks is perking up, altho westerly swells aren't the best; they will be getting up to 30 plus feet.

Storm warnings are hoisted for the outer waters of the PacNW including the California north coast. All in all, Sunday thru Monday will be a bad time to be out in the ocean in almost any vessel.