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Aletta's formation in Eastern Pacific ends Earth's 41-day tropical cyclone drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:07 PM GMT on May 15, 2012

The first Eastern Pacific tropical storm of the 2012 hurricane season is Tropical Storm Aletta, located about 650 mi south-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico. Aletta was named at 03 UTC May 15, right at the official May 15 beginning of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The storm is headed west-northwest away from Mexico, and will not trouble any land areas. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. Aletta will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite photo of Tropical Storm Aletta.

Earth's longest tropical storm-free period in at least 70 years
The formation of Aletta ends a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world. According to the UK Met Office, the 41-day period storm-less period is the longest span Earth has gone without a tropical storm in at least 70 years. The last time there were as many as 38 consecutive storm-less days was in 1944. Prior to Aletta, the last tropical storm on the planet was Tropical Storm Daphne in the South Pacific, which dissipated 06 UTC April 3, 2012. April is usually is the quietest month globally for tropical cyclones. The long storm-less period comes in the midst of a very quiet two-year period of global tropical cyclone activity. According to Dr. Ryan Maue, who specializes in tracking global tropical cyclone activity, 2010 and 2011 saw a total of 146 global tropical cyclones--the lowest two-year total since satellite observations began in 1970. The 24-month period April 2010 - March 2012 had 141 global tropical storms, which is also a record low. That's quite a turnaround from 2004 - 2005, which saw near-record high levels of global tropical cyclone activity.

The Atlantic is quiet
The disturbance near the Azores that developed on Saturday, Invest 92L, has weakened and is no longer being tracked by NHC. The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. If something did develop, the most likely location would be along an old frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda, early next week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Outstanding, a Lil Spinner to nowhere.
In this part of the blog:

It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1991 storm.

the unnamed storm was actually in 1996 not 1991.
thanks for update doc
looks like things to start right on time
may even get a early system for the home basin before the end of the weekend for next week
repeat from last blog
hey guys before you jump off the carib development #1 06z gfs doesen't kill its just way weaker looke to keep it as a monsoonal low #2 now this is the first gfs has backed off on developing it into a storm so let us just wait til the 12Z and 18Z comes in to see it gfs realy plans to kill it off
I will personaly call it dead with gfs carib system on fri/sat timeframe if I don't see anything going on currently at that time and all the models have truly backed off
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Atlantic Fields
Date: May 14 2012


Depth of the 26C Isotherm



2011

Good Morning All

Quoting MaryMichell46:


Shame
Morning Patrap, KOTG. Hope are well with the 2 of you this morning.
Thanks for the update Doc!
Hello everyone. I want to share with you a short video I made of some photos I took of the Supermoon 2012. I hope you like it.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I will personaly call it dead with gfs carib system on fri/sat timeframe if I don't see anything going on currently at that time and all the models have truly backed off


well, HPC seems to think the scenario will still happen

THE PREVAILING LONGWAVE PATTERN OF A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS
CANADA THAT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...IS DEPICTED TO
CONTINUE BY THE MAJORITY OF RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAIN AREAS
OF UNCERTAINTY ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
AREA AND WITHIN AN ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR
THE BAHAMAS...WHICH GROW APPRECIABLY BEYOND DAY 5/SUN. REGARDING
MODEL PREFERENCES...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE CLUSTERED
QUITE WELL DAYS 3-5/FRI-SUN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS...AND ALLOWING A STATIONARY
FRONT TO REMAIN DRAPED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BEYOND DAY 5
HOWEVER...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z
PARALLEL GFS...MOVE INTO THE MINORITY CAMP OF SOLUTIONS WITH THEIR
SOUTHWARD POSITIONING OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ERODING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE BAHAMAS UPPER
RIDGE. GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DISAGREEING WITH THESE
SCENARIOS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A MULTI-MODEL DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS DAYS 3-5...BEFORE SHIFTING TO A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z GEFS MEAN DAYS 6-7. THIS
APPROACH SUPPORTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
WEST...LESS AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH COULD INFLUENCE SOUTHERN FLORIDA DAYS 6-7.


Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I will personaly call it dead with gfs carib system on fri/sat timeframe if I don't see anything going on currently at that time and all the models have truly backed off



I hope it still can bring moisture to cause some rains to Tampa Bay Area because we need it.
I got 4.29 inches of rain yesterday in Orange Park, FL.
well ncstorm lets see although (off the record) I hope it does come we need rain badly
Stays at 35kts on 8 AM PDT advisory.


TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALETTA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM BOTH
SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN MAINTAINED AT
35 KT. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER WARM SSTS THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INCREASING SHEAR AND SOME DRIER AIR
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIATE WEAKENING WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. ALETTA IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/8 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AFTER
THAT TIME AS SOME OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ALLETTA
MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.
HOWEVER... THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3 AND 4...IN DEFERENCE TO THE SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BY THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 10.6N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 11.0N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 11.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 11.6N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 12.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 12.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Well, the new adv is out. They didn't change the strength at all..


Man, Levi's site is really useful for satellite GIF loops!

Link
'Swamp People' star Mitchell Guist dies

"Swamp People" is the popular History Channel TV series that chronicles the lives of alligator hunters in Louisiana
Come on rain, just a little bit further.

Quoting yqt1001:
In this part of the blog:

It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1991 storm.

the unnamed storm was actually in 1996 not 1991.


Thanks, typo on my part that is now fixed.

Jeff Masters
Yay...



Quoting MahFL:
I got 4.29 inches of rain yesterday in Orange Park, FL.
you might get more today,local weather says inland storms
Good Morning everyone.....................


I think the potential for a Caribbean Disturbance in the upcoming days still exists.
This just out from NOAA:

hot

"The average global land and ocean temperature for April 2012 was the fifth warmest since record keeping began in 1881, as noted in the NOAA National Climatic Center's latest analysis. As shown in the image, most of the globe’s land areas experienced warmer-than-average temperatures, resulting in the second warmest April land temperature, behind 2007. Meanwhile, the April 2012 global oceans ranked as the 11th warmest on record. The Arctic sea ice extent during April was the highest average April sea ice extent since 2001. Additionally, La Niña dissipated and transitioned to neutral conditions during April as sea surface temperatures continued to warm across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer."
Drought busting rains have taken hold and prolonged this entire spring
Quoting RitaEvac:
Drought busting rains have taken hold and prolonged this entire spring
be careful out there..there's flooding warnings...................FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
855 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...

RIO GRANDE AT DEL RIO AFFECTING VAL VERDE COUNTY
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED RAINFALL ALONG WITH
PREDICTED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES
FROM FORECAST VALUES...FORECAST RIVER STAGES WILL VARY.

DO NOT DRIVE AUTOMOBILES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...18 INCHES
OF WATER OR LESS CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING TRUCKS.

IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS OR COME UPON A FLOODED ROADWAY...REMEMBER
TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX.

&&

TXC465-160755-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120520T1912Z/
/DLRT2.1.DR.120505T2110Z.120515T0115Z.120520T0712 Z.NO/
855 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE RIO GRANDE AT DEL RIO.
* AT 08AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.6 FEET 0.8 METERS
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET 1.2 METERS
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE TO NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE EACH
DUE TO POWER GENERATION FROM LAKE AMISTAD.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 4.0 FEET 1.2 METERS
* IMPACT...AT 4.0 FEET...(1.2 METERS)...THE FLOW IS OVERBANKS INTO LOWEST AREAS
OF THE FLOOD PLAIN...THREATENING TO FLOOD THE ROAD THROUGH THE LOWEST SECTIONS
OF THE VEGA VERDE SUBDIVISION.

$$

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):
BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM (FT)
LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN
DEL RIO 4 4 2.6 TUE 08 AM 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.6

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):
BF FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM (M)
LOCATION STG STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN
DEL RIO 1 1 0.8 TUE 08 AM 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1

$$
I made a blog about the 2012 ACE that will be updated when a system(s) are out there in the ATL.EPAC and WPAC. If anyone wants to check how is the ACE doing,you can find out by visiting my blog.

My predictions of ACE are:

North Atlantic=90
EPAC=165
WPAC=210
This one's for you Nea



Emissions in Texas City are down
According to a report prepared by URS Corp., benzene emissions in Texas City are below the Air Monitoring Comparison Value established by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality as safe to the general population%u2019s health.

Emissions still on the decline

Emissions are on decline!
Good Morning.
Still overcast here temp 86, humidity 74%.
Winds ESE 14 mph.
Have not had the winds from south of east for a long time.
Could be the ITCZ is planning to start creeping up ?
Dr. Masters, I wanted to ask of you that that when we do have an active storm out there in the atlantic that you take a day and blog with us..I know you are a busy man but it would be really cool to have you in the trenches with us! Everyone here can agree that we hold your expertise in tropical weather in a higher category than anyone else! Hope you will consider it!
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

What kind of season is being predicted for the Eastern US this season?
NC is getting the rains also................FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
823 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH
CAROLINA...

YADKIN RIVER AT YADKIN COLLEGE AFFECTING DAVIDSON AND DAVIE COUNTIES

THE RIVER WAS JUST RISING ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE AT 8 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. SOME ROADS MAY
BE CLOSED IN THE AREA. BE CAREFUL WHEN DRIVING AS LOCAL ROADS MAY
BE WASHED OUT.

&&

NCC057-059-160023-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0001.120515T1219Z-120516T1402Z/
/YADN7.1.ER.120515T1150Z.120515T1800Z.120516T0202 Z.NO/
823 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE YADKIN RIVER AT YADKIN COLLEGE.
* UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.5 FEET BY THIS
EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...AGRICULTURAL LANDS ON BOTH BANKS BEGIN TO
FLOOD.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN

YADKIN RIVER
YADKIN COLLEGE 18 18.0 TUE 08 AM 12.4 4.6 3.2 2.8

YADKIN COLLEGE: 638.45

$$
Quoting RitaEvac:
This one's for you Nea



Emissions in Texas City are down
According to a report prepared by URS Corp., benzene emissions in Texas City are below the Air Monitoring Comparison Value established by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality as safe to the general population’s health.

Emissions still on the decline

Emissions are on decline

Good to know that the Benzene is OK.
coff coff coff....


Very interesting hmmm
the SPC increased their area outlook for the eastern coast..





they should have had a slight risk for yesterday as well..
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 15 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Thunder in downtown JAX.
12Z GFS is showing a very heavy rain set up across FL for the next week atleast.


This is just thru Sunday! This could put a huge dent in the drought across the FL Penisula.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImag es/gfs/12/gfs_namer_132_precip_ptot.gif
12z GFS- Hour 135

Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS is showing a very heavy rain set up across FL for the next week atleast.


This is just thru Sunday! This could put a huge dent in the drought across the FL Penisula.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImag es/gfs/12/gfs_namer_132_precip_ptot.gif



I hope so. we need the rain !
Quoting RitaEvac:
'Swamp People' star Mitchell Guist dies

"Swamp People" is the popular History Channel TV series that chronicles the lives of alligator hunters in Louisiana


Well that's just too sad. :(
Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS is showing a very heavy rain set up across FL for the next week atleast.


This is just thru Sunday! This could put a huge dent in the drought across the FL Penisula.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImag es/gfs/12/gfs_namer_132_precip_ptot.gif


Today Alone

FLUS42 KMFL 151244
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLOODING: TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

$$

GREGORIA
Thanks for the first Storm update of the year with a proper storm in it!
This line from the blog entry is interesting:-
" the 41-day period storm-less period is the longest span Earth has gone without a tropical storm in at least 70 years."
I seem to remember in the past blog quotes and ramblings, that with the global warming Movie, that we will get less hurricanes but they probably will be stronger? Well here's the first one of 2012, right on cue and its probably got a few mates close on behind it.
Anybody got a link to the Arctic sea ice cover at the moment? We must not leave the freezer out of the equation, Thanks in advance.
Still very hot in Southern Iberia with Huelva, near the southern Portugal boarder, having its May record high temps broken yesterday with 40/C. We went from wet and miserable late flowery spring to insane heat in about 2 days and it staying around for a while. Goodbye rains till September I think here.
Quoting RitaEvac:
This one's for you Nea



Emissions in Texas City are down
According to a report prepared by URS Corp., benzene emissions in Texas City are below the Air Monitoring Comparison Value established by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality as safe to the general population%u2019s health.

Emissions still on the decline

Emissions are on decline!

I guess the headline is true for a climatologist looking at the data. Of course, a climatologist would want more than five years of data.

Headline: "Emissions still on the decline"

Second sentence: "After four straight years of significant declines in benzene emissions, the 2011 levels are actually flat or in some cases increased compared to a year ago."
Surely sufficient CAPE about for some nasty boomers.


May 15, 2012
Nation's Newest Weather Satellite Captures Glimpse of 1st 2012 Tropical Storm

After officially becoming the first named storm of the 2012 Pacific Hurricane Season on May 15, 2012, Tropical Storm Aletta was observed by the nation's newest weather satellite, the Suomi-NPP (a NOAA-NASA partnership), at around 8:30z. Seen here in 350 meter resolution VIIRS infrared imagery are the overshooting tops associated with the most intense areas of convention in the storm (colored dark orange). TS Aletta currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving due west in the Eastern Pacific.
Data from Suomi-NPP is still undergoing quality assurance processes and are not yet operational products.


Statisticians at Ohio State University and the University of Cincinnati used spatial statistics and different regional climate models to build a consensus of likely temperature changes across North America. In this image, the color intensity corresponds to the temperature change expected by 2070, measured in degrees Celsius. The greatest temperature increases occur in the north, particularly in the Hudson Bay. Image by Noel Cressie and Emily Kang, courtesy of Ohio State University

Looks like bad news for the western desert as well.

Much more heating in the north vs. the Southeast. Will that mean less severe tornado seasons? Or will the season shift to earlier in the year while the northern areas are still warming for the year?

And, as the water off the East Coast warms will "tropical storms" be more common further north?
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning everyone.....................


Better enjoy what rains we get today and tomorrow(and perhaps Thursday morning) cus afterwards a front will slide thru and stall out well south and east of Florida(and potentially form a subtropical system either east of Cape Hatteras or later on in the Western Caribbean/southwest Atlantic at the tail-end of said frontal boundary)-giving us a bone dry end of the work week and weekend.

However, if the 12Z GFS is accurate, we might see rain sometime next week(first in south Florida on Monday-Tuesday, then perhaps the rest of us by mid-week). But I have a feeling that too might track east of us.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Surely sufficient CAPE about for some nasty boomers.



That, in combination with the high PWAT values currently present over South Florida, the nearly uniform southwest flow building over the region, and a weak disturbance moving in from the Gulf will make for a very active afternoon and evening over Southeast Florida.
Fukushima update:

Japan Physicians: 1 million will develop cancer and die from Fukushima radiation, using expert’s figures (4 VIDEOS)

Link


Magazine Headline: “Radioactive black dust striking Tokyo Metropolitan area” — I’ve been told it’s everywhere in city, says reporter

Link

Physicist: Unit 2 completely liquified, 100% liquification of uranium core — “We’ve never seen this before in the history of nuclear power” (VIDEO)

Link
Quoting weatherbro:


Better enjoy what rains we get today and tomorrow(and perhaps Thursday morning) cus afterwards a front will slide thru and stall out well south and east of Florida(and potentially form a subtropical system either east of Cape Hatteras or later on in the Western Caribbean at the tail-end of said frontal boundary)-giving us a bone dry end of the work week and weekend.

However, if the 12Z GFS is accurate, we might see rain sometime next week(first in south Florida on Monday-Tuesday, then perhaps the rest of us by mid-week). But I have a feeling that too might track east of us.
ty for the update, bone dry here and not a rain cloud in sight.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...SRN NC...NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151707Z - 151900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF TOWERING CU OVER W CNTRL
SC NEAR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC
NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. WITH STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE
MOISTURE...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. TALL STORMS CAPABLE OF
1.00 - 1.75 INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE LIKELY...AND SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH DOWNBURSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ORGANIZED WIND
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE LARGE SCALE.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/15/2012
we might have a bud soon
Quoting sunlinepr:
Fukushima update:

Japan Physicians: 1 million will develop cancer and die from Fukushima radiation, using expert’s figures (4 VIDEOS)

Link


Magazine Headline: “Radioactive black dust striking Tokyo Metropolitan area” — I’ve been told it’s everywhere in city, says reporter

Link

Physicist: Unit 2 completely liquified, 100% liquification of uranium core — “We’ve never seen this before in the history of nuclear power” (VIDEO)

Link
any town or city thinking nuke power, had better take a good long look at whats happening in Japan right now, and this will go on maybe for generations?
NC is getting hammered today..rivers there are at flood stage and still more heavy rain coming down.............
Quoting LargoFl:
any town or city thinking nuke power, had better take a good long look at whats happening in Japan right now, and this will go on maybe for generations?


The thing is Poison is blowing our way.... something has to be done to stop it from reaching us....


We got boomers already..
Quoting sunlinepr:

May 15, 2012
Nation's Newest Weather Satellite Captures Glimpse of 1st 2012 Tropical Storm

After officially becoming the first named storm of the 2012 Pacific Hurricane Season on May 15, 2012, Tropical Storm Aletta was observed by the nation's newest weather satellite, the Suomi-NPP (a NOAA-NASA partnership), at around 8:30z. Seen here in 350 meter resolution VIIRS infrared imagery are the overshooting tops associated with the most intense areas of convention in the storm (colored dark orange). TS Aletta currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving due west in the Eastern Pacific.
Data from Suomi-NPP is still undergoing quality assurance processes and are not yet operational products.


That's amazing, much more detailed satellite imagery right there. Looking forward to seeing more from this new satellite.
Quoting sunlinepr:


The thing is Poison is blowing our way.... something has to be done to stop it from reaching us....
i thought i read somewhere..where the radiation was making the fish in Alaska sick..this is a very Bad situation and I dont think..anyone in the world..knows how to stop this..gee
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

SCZ053-054-151815-
COASTAL HORRY-INLAND HORRY-
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HORRY COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BUCKSVILLE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOCASTEE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CONWAY...RED HILL...SOCASTEE...
ADRIAN...ALLSBROOK...BAYBORO...BUCKSPORT...BUCKSV ILLE...DONGOLA...
FORESTBROOK...HAMMOND AND HICKORY GROVE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DIME SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 7919 3373 7920 3410 7900 3397 7874
3362 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 209DEG 17KT 3375 7907

$$

BACON
Quoting sunlinepr:
Fukushima update:

Japan Physicians: 1 million will develop cancer and die from Fukushima radiation, using expert’s figures (4 VIDEOS)

Link


Magazine Headline: “Radioactive black dust striking Tokyo Metropolitan area” — I’ve been told it’s everywhere in city, says reporter

Link

Physicist: Unit 2 completely liquified, 100% liquification of uranium core — “We’ve never seen this before in the history of nuclear power” (VIDEO)

Link

Interesting comment from a news channel on this one, where a reader said. "If this sort of thing was going on/coming out, of North Korea, then we would be at war with them by now over it!"
It will be interesting to see how far out of hand it has got by the second anniversary in March 2013, assuming that some of us survive December 2012.
Quoting LargoFl:
i thought i read somewhere..where the radiation was making the fish in Alaska sick..this is a very Bad situation and I dont think..anyone in the world..knows how to stop this..gee


Check this...

Link

But remember to check the sources of the info....

Filter the trustable sources....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we might have a bud soon


That is correct. Here is the 11 AM PDT TWO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting weatherbro:


Better enjoy what rains we get today and tomorrow(and perhaps Thursday morning) cus afterwards a front will slide thru and stall out well south and east of Florida(and potentially form a subtropical system either east of Cape Hatteras or later on in the Western Caribbean/southwest Atlantic at the tail-end of said frontal boundary)-giving us a bone dry end of the work week and weekend.

However, if the 12Z GFS is accurate, we might see rain sometime next week(first in south Florida on Monday-Tuesday, then perhaps the rest of us by mid-week). But I have a feeling that too might track east of us.


??? Models are showing very heavy rain thru the next 8 to 10 days as a cut off low forms over FL and tropical moisture pumps up into FL.

8 Day precip map. Read it and weep as the Rainy Season has started.

Quoting LargoFl:
i thought i read somewhere..where the radiation was making the fish in Alaska sick..this is a very Bad situation and I dont think..anyone in the world..knows how to stop this..gee


I kind of think that there is nothing we can do about what has already spread but should concentrate on doing something about all the reactors. Why havent they filled them with concrete or something? Why are they not asking for help internationally?

If something isnt done AGW wont matter. How the heck would the world deal with all that radiation if a hurricane, tornado or volcano caused the whole thing to blow?
Quoting bappit:

I guess the headline is true for a climatologist looking at the data. Of course, a climatologist would want more than five years of data.

Headline: "Emissions still on the decline"

Second sentence: "After four straight years of significant declines in benzene emissions, the 2011 levels are actually flat or in some cases increased compared to a year ago."


Think of the same thing when cold snaps happen, skews the data, it's all relative, the chart doesn't lie, decline in emissions is obvious, just like when the charts are shown of warming....
Quoting PlazaRed:

Interesting comment from a news channel on this one, where a reader said. "If this sort of thing was going on/coming out, of North Korea, then we would be at war with them by now over it!"
It will be interesting to see how far out of hand it has got by the second anniversary in March 2013, assuming that some of us survive December 2012.
yes i think long term there is going to be alot of trouble coming out of this diseaster,just wait till this spreads over to other nations and maybe millions start dying or the cancer rates sky rocket..just imagine..alone..the huge medical costs..in many nations..and most of the world is in heavy debt already...maybe the news is right..wars may..be started over this, but it wont solve the problem and i think still, no one in the world, really knows how to stop and better yet..fix the problem there..alot of the radiation has already moved on to other area's
Quoting StormTracker2K:


??? Models are showing very heavy rain thru the next 8 to 10 days as a cut off low forms over FL and tropical moisture pumps up into FL.

8 Day precip map. Read it and weep as the Rainy Season has started.

models also said..40% rain here by me..almost 2 weeks now..and i got..5 rain drops last week lol...im sorry, but when i see it, i will believe it..may is our dry month anyway..lets see if the wet season begins sometime in june... we need the rain badly here
Quoting txjac:


I kind of think that there is nothing we can do about what has already spread but should concentrate on doing something about all the reactors. Why havent they filled them with concrete or something? Why are they not asking for help internationally?

If something isnt done AGW wont matter. How the heck would the world deal with all that radiation if a hurricane, tornado or volcano caused the whole thing to blow?
got this quote from an expert on fox news may 13th i think..here is what he said..............."The worst case scenario is that the fuel rods fuse together, the temperatures get so hot that they melt together in a radioactive molten mass that bursts through the containment mechmisms and is exposed to the outside. So they spew radioactivity in the ground, into the air, into the water. Some of the radioactivity could carry in the atmosphere to the West Coast of the United States."
Quoting txjac:


How the heck would the world deal with all that radiation if a hurricane, tornado or volcano caused the whole thing to blow?


Even a dust storm or a fire can bring nuclear waste to the interior of our homes, depending where we live in the mainland...

Chapter 13: Environmental Dangers from Cold War Legacy Radiation - Wildfires

Link
Quoting LargoFl:
got this quote from an expert on fox news may 13th i think..here is what he said..............."The worst case scenario is that the fuel rods fuse together, the temperatures get so hot that they melt together in a radioactive molten mass that bursts through the containment mechmisms and is exposed to the outside. So they spew radioactivity in the ground, into the air, into the water. Some of the radioactivity could carry in the atmosphere to the West Coast of the United States."
ok so if it happened now..this week..what would happen on the west coast...god i wouldnt want to be over there if it does,imagine maybe..the riots etc..but..doing that wont help a bit..the government for all purposes is broke, 14 trillion in debt..imagine just the medical bills there..aww it hasnt happened yet..think i'll stick to weather lol..enought to make you drink lol
Quoting StormTracker2K:


??? Models are showing very heavy rain thru the next 8 to 10 days as a cut off low forms over FL and tropical moisture pumps up into FL.

8 Day precip map. Read it and weep as the Rainy Season has started.



The low is expected to cut-off well-east of Cape Hatteras this weekend-not Florida(according to the HPC preliminaries). Besides, the attaches frontal boundary is expected by all the models to stall over Cuba and the Bahama's-giving us dry northwesterly winds. So don't expect any rain after Thursday until at least sometime next week(and that's if something get's going in the right place).
Quoting txjac:


I kind of think that there is nothing we can do about what has already spread but should concentrate on doing something about all the reactors. Why havent they filled them with concrete or something? Why are they not asking for help internationally?

If something isnt done AGW wont matter. How the heck would the world deal with all that radiation if a hurricane, tornado or volcano caused the whole thing to blow?
we are done for anyway it was what it was right from the start funny thing is they knew right from day 1 but failed to take care of it

only solution now is a mass scale liquid Concrete in large sea tankers
hook up some pump trucks and start building the worlds largest pyramid of pure concrete
Quoting LargoFl:
models also said..40% rain here by me..almost 2 weeks now..and i got..5 rain drops last week lol...im sorry, but when i see it, i will believe it..may is our dry month anyway..lets see if the wet season begins sometime in june... we need the rain badly here


Rainy season is here as lots of rain is on the way and for days it looks like. This could be a big time event setting up as look at ULL that is about to dig into the Gulf and pump lot of tropical moisture north up into FL. We could have an 80% chance of rain Wednesday or Thursday as an axis of heavy rain aligns itself from the gulf and across FL.




Quoting sunlinepr:


The thing is Poison is blowing our way.... something has to be done to stop it from reaching us....
There have been over 300 nuke test in the US.I am pretty sure that I am fine and so are most people in the US. Radiation from Japan? If any does reach the US it will be in small amounts and above the surface. Also to all of those people not wanting nuclear power. It is the cleanest and most efficient energy source we have. There is a trade off with everything and the trade off with nuke power is the probability of an accident. The track with nuke power is fantastic if you think about it. Only 3 noticeable accidents in what 50 years? The pros of nuclear power out way the cons IMO. US fallout exposure from nuke test.



Edit: It is actually 900 nuke test in the US.
Quoting weatherbro:


The low is expected to cut-off well-east of Cape Hatteras this weekend-not Florida(according to the HPC preliminaries). Besides, the attaches frontal boundary is expected by all the models to stall over Cuba and the Bahama's-giving us dry northwesterly winds. So don't expect any rain after Thursday until at least sometime next week(and that's if something get's going in the right place).


No there not. Where are you seeing this as I don't see it on the GFS or HPC. Look below.

Day 4 & 5 on the HPC precip map

Saturday on the 12Z GFS
Quoting txjac:


I kind of think that there is nothing we can do about what has already spread but should concentrate on doing something about all the reactors. Why havent they filled them with concrete or something? Why are they not asking for help internationally?

If something isnt done AGW wont matter. How the heck would the world deal with all that radiation if a hurricane, tornado or volcano caused the whole thing to blow?


The time for filling things with concrete is long gone, in fact there never was a time for using concrete, in these cases as the building had suffered from explosions and these explosions certainly originated in or around the reactor cores.
To put it simply; if you are on a ship[ with a huge hole blown in the bottom of it there is probably little point in discussing what you are going to do when you dock at your destination. The most profitable use of time, is to get into a lifeboat, find out how to operate it, then call for help, in fact possibly call for help should be first on your list.
If you cover these things in concrete then the concrete will heat up, de nature and probably become even more atmospheric pollution.
A lot of non idiots have no doubt been thinking of what to do about this for the last year at least.(Nobody's saying much!) So far nobody has come up with any solutions, there may be non, as nobody has ever had to deal with at least one pool/body of molten nuclear fuel before, at the bottoms of large piles of twisted metal and thousands of tons of rubble.
In a way this is a bit like having the problem underneath the remains of the twin towers!
I imagine the everglades is doing ok on water now,i know they were suffering down there for awhile..the wildlife there need water to survive..SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ076>078-GMZ031-032-042-043-052-053-072-073-151 900-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BLACKWATER AND BUTTONWOOD SOUNDS-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO HALFMOON SHOAL OUT TO
5 FATHOMS-HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT TO
THE REEF-STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...KEY LARGO...MARATHON...KEY WEST
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 300 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN FLORIDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...MAINLY BETWEEN MAN OF WAR KEY AND OX FOOT BANK
LIGHT...AS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE 3 MILE
BRIDGE. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS
INSIDE HAWK CHANNEL BETWEEN EAST WASHERWOMAN SHOAL LIGHT AND
TENNESSEE REEF LIGHT...AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN 25 MILES
OF THIS STRETCH OF THE FLORIDA REEF. MARINERS IN THE PATH OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL ENCOUNTER BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 2 NM...WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOVEMENT OF ALL INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

$$

FUTTERMAN
Quoting weatherbro:


The low is expected to cut-off well-east of Cape Hatteras this weekend-not Florida(according to the HPC preliminaries). Besides, the attaches frontal boundary is expected by all the models to stall over Cuba and the Bahama's-giving us dry northwesterly winds. So don't expect any rain after Thursday until at least sometime next week(and that's if something get's going in the right place).


Typically with frontal passages this time of year, we experience a brief shift in winds from the northwest for maybe a day before the winds shift back around to from the northeast and east. I don't see things staying dry for that long, at least across Southern and Central Florida, especially once the winds shift back around and the sea breezes build once again.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Typically with frontal passages this time of year, we experience a brief shift in winds from the northwest for maybe a day before the winds shift back around to from the northeast and east. I don't see things staying dry for that long, at least across Southern and Central Florida, especially once the winds shift back around and the sea breezes build once again.


I agree but there won't be any wind shift from the NW a shift to the east yest as this low sits to our west. If these models pan out (GFS & Euro) as they are now showing a cut off low stalling over FL or the east Gulf keeping FL very rainy. This is a very interesting set up as very beneficial rains appear to be on the way pretty much state wide.
Here's the Euro for Sunday and notice how the ULL cuts off over FL.

Strange, awesome weather today here in Houston. Low humidity and not even 70 degrees yet. Been overcast though and had sprinkles this morning.

So much better than last year
Quoting LargoFl:
models also said..40% rain here by me..almost 2 weeks now..and i got..5 rain drops last week lol...im sorry, but when i see it, i will believe it..may is our dry month anyway..lets see if the wet season begins sometime in june... we need the rain badly here
Actually 40% means area wide coverage, and if you go east of I-75 there has been rain almost everyday. And we have had a southwesterly flow now for a while, some kind of steering mechanisms needs to give the boot on the front that is stalled out over the gulf and move it over FL. Looking ahead troughiness looks to set-up over the eastern seaboard indicative of an El-Nino pattern.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
There have been over 300 nuke test in the US.I am pretty sure that I am fine and so are most people in the US. Radiation from Japan? If any does reach the US it will be in small amounts and above the surface. Also to all of those people not wanting nuclear power. It is the cleanest and most efficient energy source we have. There is a trade off with everything and the trade off with nuke power is the probability of an accident. The track with nuke power is fantastic if you think about it. Only 3 noticeable accidents in what 50 years? The pros of nuclear power out way the cons IMO. US fallout exposure from nuke test.



Edit: It is actually 900 nuke test in the US.


What you are talking about is 900 nuclear blasts over 50 years. Fukushima is a continuous blast for over a year. Figure that into your equation.

Added - and Fukushima is ongoing.
Question - What do you do with the spent fuel rods? Send them to China to make children's toys? Really, what do you do with the spent fuel rods???
Quoting txjac:
Strange, awesome weather today here in Houston. Low humidity and not even 70 degrees yet. Been overcast though and had sprinkles this morning.

So much better than last year


Lol. Was just wondering if we could keep this weather a little while longer. :D

Quoting StormTracker2K:


I agree but there won't be any wind shift from the NW a shift to the east yest as this low sits to our west. If these models pan out (GFS & Euro) as they are now showing a cut off low stalling over FL or the east Gulf keeping FL very rainy. This is a very interesting set up as very beneficial rains appear to be on the way pretty much state wide.
Well, we keep saying this but it never materializes so don't keep your fingers crossed.
Up to 40kts on 18z best track.

EP, 01, 2012051518, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1100W, 40, 1003, TS

Largo hang in there buddy as the HPC is agreeing with the models that a slug of rain is going to move in off the SE Gulf over the next 48 hours.

i just hope everyone talking up the rain for florida is correct. the local mets seem to think its going to dry up a bit. need it bad here in the tampa area. all this rain all around and nothing here.
102. txjac
Quoting intampa:
i just hope everyone talking up the rain for florida is correct. the local mets seem to think its going to dry up a bit. need it bad here in the tampa area. all this rain all around and nothing here.


We feel (felt) your pain. Last year I was jealous every time it rained in Florida or Louisiana ...as we sat here in he!!. It will get there ...all there rain and clouds from here will be coming your way
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
There have been over 300 nuke test in the US.I am pretty sure that I am fine and so are most people in the US. Radiation from Japan? If any does reach the US it will be in small amounts and above the surface. Also to all of those people not wanting nuclear power. It is the cleanest and most efficient energy source we have. There is a trade off with everything and the trade off with nuke power is the probability of an accident. The track with nuke power is fantastic if you think about it. Only 3 noticeable accidents in what 50 years? The pros of nuclear power out way the cons IMO. US fallout exposure from nuke test.



Edit: It is actually 900 nuke test in the US.
First of all, the amount of radiation released from military testing is not nearly as high or as easily spread as what is released from a reactor meltdown. You have to understand the different methods of radiation poisoning...

Nuclear bombs send out an initial burst of gamma rays upon detonation, and a fair amount of radioactive material in the form of dust is scattered in the wind and disperses rather quickly. But a nuclear plant meltdown is a continuous source of radioactive particles including the more deadly and longer-lasting atoms of cesium and strontium. Since these are single atoms floating in the air, they can travel around forever unless they happen to settle on the ground or in your lungs. For at least 33 years, each cesium atom will constantly be emitting gamma rays which will eventually screw up DNA and cause cancer.

If radiation levels in your area are low and at normal levels you may assume that Fukushima has not had an affect on your area, but as far as you know, you may have inhaled an atom of cesium originating from the reactor all the way in Japan. You could develop cancer in 15+ years due to that ONE atom constantly emitting radiation, but you would never know that Fukushima was to blame.

So, nuclear bomb test do release a good amount of radiation, but they luckily tend to throw out particles and chunks of contaminated matter instead of the pure radioactive elements themselves. Hope that made sense.
Good afternoon all...thanks Dr. Masters
62 here at 2 pm with 98 percent humidity, rains finally moving out with almost 3 inches here since late last night. High Pressure will build in over Texas and I am ready for our Summer because if I can make it thru last year I can make it thru any weather. We have a wet fall to look forward to here with El Nino developing. I can make it thru the next 3 months no matter how dry and hot they are because all the ponds around here are full so bring on Texas Summer.
No rain for Ga.
The drought will advance again.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is correct. Here is the 11 AM PDT TWO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hey Tropics. The eastern pacifics is moving in to 2nd gear at the start of there hurricane season
Quoting Xandra:
Message from Friends of the Earth:

End $113 billion in polluter tax subsidies!

Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Keith Ellison recently launched new legislation that would repeal more than $110 billion tax-breaks, handouts, and subsidies for the fossil fuel industry over the next 10 years.

As you can imagine, the fossil fuel industry is going to fight back hard, so we need to come out as strong as possible. We've joined up with other groups to gather as many signatures as we can to show our support.

Please sign below to add your name to the list of Americans who are backing this legislation to end tax subsidies to the polluting fossil fuel industry.




Break out the electric car, stove, and everything, but where does you electricity come from if you dont want nuclear power?
There are not enough dams in the world to give you what you want.
For the foreseeable future, natural gas, coal, and oil are going to be integral parts of society, until nuclear power takes over.
We simply are not capable of operating otherwise at a very functional level.

Bring on the nuclear.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Since these are single atoms floating in the air, they can travel around forever unless they happen to settle on the ground or in your lungs. For at least 33 years, each cesium atom will constantly be emitting gamma rays which will eventually screw up DNA and cause cancer.


Sorry to be picky, but each Cesium atom will (generally) only emit a photon in the form of a gamma ray as it undergoes an alpha or beta decay. After undergoing an alpha or beta decay, it is no longer a cesium atom. It may still be radioactive, so further decay may occur from the one atom, but certainly not amounting to a large amount of total gamma rays from one atom before becoming a stable isotope of an element.

Your general point still stands though.
HPC Extended

Excerpt:


THIS APPROACH SUPPORTS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
THE WEST...LESS AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES...AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DAYS 5-7. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
STRONGEST AND FARTHEST WEST WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR HYBRID
LOW...HAVING IT MOVE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AND
POSSIBLY INLAND ON DAY 5. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AN EARLY
SEASON EVENT...WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH MAINTAINS THIS OUTCOME AS A LOW PROBABILITY
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.




Later guys
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
62 here at 2 pm with 98 percent humidity, rains finally moving out with almost 3 inches here since late last night. High Pressure will build in over Texas and I am ready for our Summer because if I can make it thru last year I can make it thru any weather. We have a wet fall to look forward to here with El Nino developing. I can make it thru the next 3 months no matter how dry and hot they are because all the ponds around here are full so bring on Texas Summer.


Lol. Strong words my friend. Sigh...our humidity will most likely return to 98% or above by the end of the week with winds turning to the south. No rain just heat and humidity. Typical summer-like pattern. But I have noticed some upper level lows on the models, and in discussions, dropping through TX. Hopefully they'll keep bringing the rain.
For at least 33 years, each cesium atom will constantly be emitting gamma rays which will eventually screw up DNA and cause cancer.

If radiation levels in your area are low and at normal levels you may assume that Fukushima has not had an affect on your area, but as far as you know, you may have inhaled an atom of cesium originating from the reactor all the way in Japan. You could develop cancer in 15+ years due to that ONE atom constantly emitting radiation, but you would never know that Fukushima was to blame.

But each atom has only one chance to emit radiation in a single event and then it is transformed into Barium which is stable. There is a 50% chance of this happening sometime in the first 30 years after the Cesium 137 is formed. If you have a reasonable quantity, like a gram or more, there are enough atoms for it to continuous emit radiation over a multi-year period.
Please learn more about the physics of radiation before scaring more people.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
62 here at 2 pm with 98 percent humidity, rains finally moving out with almost 3 inches here since late last night. High Pressure will build in over Texas and I am ready for our Summer because if I can make it thru last year I can make it thru any weather. We have a wet fall to look forward to here with El Nino developing. I can make it thru the next 3 months no matter how dry and hot they are because all the ponds around here are full so bring on Texas Summer.


Gotten your water I see, everything looking ok?
Let me see there are no nuclear plants operating in Japan, some cost estimates up to 1/2 trillion dollars. Ask the people who died around Chernobyl and lost their cities to live in. I believe there was one meteor that caused some damage to the earth awhile back, frequency of incidence is no measure of cost.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Break out the electric car, stove, and everything, but where does you electricity come from if you dont want nuclear power?
There are not enough dams in the world to give you what you want.
For the foreseeable future, natural gas, coal, and oil are going to be integral parts of society, until nuclear power takes over.
We simply are not capable of operating otherwise at a very functional level.

Bring on the nuclear.


We could power the entire planet with either wind or solar power. Of course a mix of inputs makes the most sense.

Nuclear is very unlikely to become a larger part of our grid supply. Aside from public resistance and the unsolved radioactive waste problem, nuclear is simply too expensive. The price of electricity from a new nuclear plant is high and rising.

Wind and natural gas (in the US) are our cheapest 'new' sources. Solar is now cheaper than nuclear and falling fast. We're on route to solar being roughly the same as geothermal in a few years.

Solar, while not cheap, is cheaper for end users in sunny areas. It's also pulling down the price of grid power in areas which have a lot of solar (Germany). Solar eliminates the need to purchase very expensive peak period power and, in merit order markets, brings down daytime costs considerable. Wind has been making nighttime power less expensive in high penetration areas.

Cheap nighttime power and the disappearance of very high peak hour prices kills new nuclear and coal. They need to sell their power 24/365. They can't raise their rates during the other hours as natural gas will eat up that market.

We're seeing new battery technology coming to market that promises cheap storage. Store cheap wind and affordable solar for a decent cost and that's what will make our future grid buzz.
Here's the afternoon JAX forecast discussion for those debating whether it'll be wet or dry over the weekend. Still a few uncertainties but I would suspect by Thursday/Friday there'll be a much better handle on the situation.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALBEIT WITH A
FEW CHANGES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FROM NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
ERN GULF COAST. CYCLOGENESIS NOW APPEARS WELL EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY AND NE TO
EAST WINDS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE. MODELS VARY AS TO WHETHER A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORMS
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. IF IT DOES...THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LIKELY
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS FOR NOW AND
ADJUST AS THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH LESS DIURNAL
VARIATION NEAR THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
Quoting intampa:
i just hope everyone talking up the rain for florida is correct. the local mets seem to think its going to dry up a bit. need it bad here in the tampa area. all this rain all around and nothing here.
just finished shopping and i noticed..maybe over tampa, the west coast seabreeze line of clouds, maybe you will get a sprinkle or two before they head inland..good luck ok..not a drop here suns out real strong and no rain clouds at all here
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ037-151945-
PUTNAM-
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL PUTNAM
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 13 MILES WEST OF WELAKA...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
INTERLACHEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WELAKA...SATSUMA...POMONA PARK...
PALATKA...LAKE COMO AND EAST PALATKA THROUGH 345 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2948 8177 2949 8178 2949 8184 2952 8184
2951 8186 2951 8195 2956 8196 2970 8161
2948 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 242DEG 17KT 2953 8187

$$

ENYEDI
Last year at this time i received 4.5 inches, this year close to 20 inches. We know here our Summers will be Hot and Dry or Hot and Humid. Things looking pretty good, even Lake Travis is going up. It is about 28 feet below normal but one bonus tropical system will take care of that or when El Nino develops. Last year at this time almost all the ponds around here were dry or had little water and everything was beyond dead, right now it is night and day.
there are also Gale warnings out for Both..NC and SC.........SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NCZ078-089-152000-
SAMPSON-WAYNE-
259 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HOBBTON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RURAL EASTERN
SAMPSON COUNTY AND MOUNT OLIVE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 348 AND 355.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 7843 3543 7806 3517 7791 3516 7798
3519 7801 3519 7805 3517 7807 3518 7816
3509 7817 3508 7815 3502 7815 3500 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 258DEG 14KT 3512 7831

$$

22
Quoting BobWallace:


We could power the entire planet with either wind or solar power. Of course a mix of inputs makes the most sense.

Nuclear is very unlikely to become a larger part of our grid supply. Aside from public resistance and the unsolved radioactive waste problem, nuclear is simply too expensive. The price of electricity from a new nuclear plant is high and rising.

Wind and natural gas (in the US) are our cheapest 'new' sources. Solar is now cheaper than nuclear and falling fast. We're on route to solar being roughly the same as geothermal in a few years.

Solar, while not cheap, is cheaper for end users in sunny areas. It's also pulling down the price of grid power in areas which have a lot of solar (Germany). Solar eliminates the need to purchase very expensive peak period power and, in merit order markets, brings down daytime costs considerable. Wind has been making nighttime power less expensive in high penetration areas.

Cheap nighttime power and the disappearance of very high peak hour prices kills new nuclear and coal. They need to sell their power 24/365. They can't raise their rates during the other hours as natural gas will eat up that market.

We're seeing new battery technology coming to market that promises cheap storage. Store cheap wind and affordable solar for a decent cost and that's what will make our future grid buzz.


I have 15 solar landscape lights in my yard, 8 in front yard and 7 in back yard. They beautify the landscape at night....that's about all it does for now.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Last year at this time i received 4.5 inches, this year close to 20 inches. We know here our Summers will be Hot and Dry or Hot and Humid. Things looking pretty good, even Lake Travis is going up. It is about 28 feet below normal but one bonus tropical system will take care of that or when El Nino develops. Last year at this time almost all the ponds around here were dry or had little water and everything was beyond dead, right now it is night and day.
mother nature heard your pleas and brought the rains..good for you folks, i know you folks were suffering last year.
Quoting StAugustineFL:
Here's the afternoon JAX forecast discussion for those debating whether it'll be wet or dry over the weekend. Still a few uncertainties but I would suspect by Thursday/Friday there'll be a much better handle on the situation.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALBEIT WITH A
FEW CHANGES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FROM NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
ERN GULF COAST. CYCLOGENESIS NOW APPEARS WELL EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY AND NE TO
EAST WINDS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE. MODELS VARY AS TO WHETHER A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORMS
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. IF IT DOES...THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LIKELY
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS FOR NOW AND
ADJUST AS THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH LESS DIURNAL
VARIATION NEAR THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.


Looking rough by you my friend.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ066-152030-
HENDRY FL
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEVILS GARDEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
RURAL NORTHERN HENDRY COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2676 8111 2666 8096 2659 8114 2665 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 229DEG 5KT 2665 8113

$$

MJB
The beginnings of what could be quite a potent system.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...9...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ALETTA A LET- AH MIRIAM MEER- YIM
BUD BUHD NORMAN NOR- MUHN
CARLOTTA KAR LOT- UH OLIVIA UH LIV- EE UH
DANIEL DAN- YUHL PAUL PALL
EMILIA EE MILL- YA ROSA ROH- ZUH
FABIO FAH- BEE O SERGIO SIR- GEE OH
GILMA GIL- MAH TARA TAIR- UH
HECTOR HEHK- TOR VICENTE VEE CEN- TAY
ILEANA ILL AY AH- NAH WILLA WIH- LAH
JOHN JAHN XAVIER ZAY- VEE UR
KRISTY KRIS- TEE YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LANE LAYNE ZEKE ZEEK

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST PACIFIC TWITTER
FEED IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML...IN ALL
LOWER CASE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Last year at this time i received 4.5 inches, this year close to 20 inches. We know here our Summers will be Hot and Dry or Hot and Humid. Things looking pretty good, even Lake Travis is going up. It is about 28 feet below normal but one bonus tropical system will take care of that or when El Nino develops. Last year at this time almost all the ponds around here were dry or had little water and everything was beyond dead, right now it is night and day.
I'm very glad the rains have put a dent in the drought for you guys, the situation was very bad, I remember trying to bring up ideas on how to fill those lakes, never want to see the words "Death Ridge" and Texas mentioned in the same sentence ever again.
Nice!!
Good afternoon everyone... Aletta's convection has warmed quite a bit... It's possible that she's already starting to weaken... The overall structure remains pretty good though

Anyone notice something unusual this year in florida's rainstorms? HAIL?..been here almost 30 years and only seen hail maybe..2-3 times..now all of a sudden with each weather warning..it includes hail every day...are they just warning there COULD be hail to be on the safe side or..has there been..hail with this years storms?..anyone know?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon everyone... Aletta's convection has warmed quite a bit... It's possible that she's already starting to weaken... The overall structure remains pretty good though


I don't think it has began to weaken. In fact, it still has most of tonight to strengthen slightly.

SAB/TAFB came back at 50 mph. Let's see if the NHC goes with that or the ATCF update of 45 mph.
Looks no rain again for Tampa today.
anyother warning going up now..be careful out there folks..heed your local warnings............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

GAC029-179-183-191-152030-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-120515T2030Z/
LIBERTY GA-BRYAN GA-LONG GA-MCINTOSH GA-
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH...SOUTHEASTERN LONG...SOUTHERN BRYAN AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUXFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
HAIL UP TO PING PONG SIZE...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
ALLENHURST...COX...EULONIA...FLEMINGTON...FORT STEWART...
HALFMOON LANDING...HINESVILLE...KELLER...MCINTOSH...RETREAT ...
RICEBORO...SUNBURY...TIBET...TOWNSEND...WALTHOURV ILLE...
CROSSROADS AND MIDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY
FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS
AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8155 3149 8165 3154 8167 3156 8171
3202 8164 3184 8116 3182 8116 3182 8118
3179 8118 3179 8116 3175 8117 3143 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 199DEG 27KT 3159 8152

$$

JAQ
Published on Apr 19, 2012 by connectingdots1

April 17, 2012: Senator Ron Wyden (D-Oregon), appeared on MSNBC's The Daily Rundown to discuss a recent onsite tour of what remains of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facilities decimated by last year's earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

Wyden, a senior member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, sent a letter to Japanese Ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki looking for ways to advance and support clean-up and recovery efforts. Wyden's principal concern is the relocation of spent fuel rods currently being stored in unsound structures immediately adjacent to the ocean. He strongly urged the Ambassador to accept international help to prevent dangerous nuclear material from being released into the environment.

and Akio Matsumura talks about nuclear power plants, spent fuel pools, and the trouble with Reactor 4 at Fukushima.


Quoting LargoFl:
Anyone notice something unusual this year in florida's rainstorms? HAIL?..been here almost 30 years and only seen hail maybe..2-3 times..now all of a sudden with each weather warning..it includes hail every day...are they just warning there COULD be hail to be on the safe side or..has there been..hail with this years storms?..anyone know?
The air in the upper levels must still be cold enough to produce hail, but it's not that unusual to see nickel and dime size hail. I've never seen it here along the coast, but inland is a different story.
Quoting LargoFl:
mother nature heard your pleas and brought the rains..good for you folks, i know you folks were suffering last year.


The suffering was beyond comprehension....nobody outside the state regardless of expertise will ever know the magnitude of what took place in 2011. Only Texans living there that had to endure it and witness it will only truly know what was taking place. Only in the memory of Texans' brains will remember it and take it with them to their graves.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
The air in the upper levels must still be cold enough to produce hail, but it's not that unusual to see nickel and dime size hail. I've never seen it here along the coast, but inland is a different story.
yes it must be cold up there, stll spring even though its almost 90 outside lol..ty for the reply
Quoting RitaEvac:


The suffering was beyond comprehension....nobody outside the state regardless of expertise will ever know the magnitude of what took place in 2011. Only Texans living there that had to endure it and witness it will only truly know what was taking place.
I remember reading news reports last year of whole lakes over there drying up, it must have been awful
12z Euro..coming back to the idea storm off the NC coast scenario

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't think it has began to weaken. In fact, it still has most of tonight to strengthen slightly.

SAB/TAFB came back at 50 mph. Let's see if the NHC goes with that or the ATCF update of 45 mph.

You know the NHC... Knowing them they'll probably stick with 40, lol... I'd say Aletta's probably peaking right about now or maybe she'll strengthen just a little more... She'll get torn apart fast when that shear hits her though

By the way, great job by the GFS in predicting the formation of Aletta... The Euro didn't pick that up until the very last minute... This makes me skeptical of getting anything big out of this next East Pac disturbance because I'm not sure the Euro has the current pattern out there nailed down... I say we probably get a mid strength TS out of it, a solution closer to the GFS than the Euro
If you cover 1% of the Earth's surface in parabolic trough boilers, and have a smart distribution system, you can power all human activities everywhere on the planet, non-stop forever.
Quoting Patrap:


It should be a invest very soon.
EP012012 - Tropical Storm ALETTA


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/loop

...click image for loop



Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis




Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track
150. txjac
Quoting RTSplayer:
If you cover 1% of the Earth's surface in parabolic trough boilers, and have a smart distribution system, you can power all human activities everywhere on the planet, non-stop forever.


I give ...

What the heck! parabolic trough boilers

I'm at work right now ...will have to look that up when I get home this evening
Quoting txjac:


I give ...

What the heck! parabolic trough boilers

I'm at work right now ...will have to look that up when I get home this evening


ScienceDirect
Aletta up to 45 mph.
No weakening with Aletta yet, still forecast to reach 50 mph
I'm right in the middle of this. Looking very active in a couple of hours.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


ScienceDirect


I still only have the mono burner pot warmer. ;-)

Link
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 152034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...ALETTA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 110.4W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST. ALETTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Just did a blog on Aletta. Gotta head to work now, but feel free to check it out. I'll be back this evening.
This will likely become Bud by the weekend.

Here's the cone of doom for Aletta... Looks like WNW for a while before more of a north turn as a remnant low

Bud? That's kind of a weird name for a tropical cyclone. =/
ASCAT caught the eastern portion of the disturbance east of Aletta, and it showed signs of cyclonic turning.

Update
(click to enlarge)
**Nuclear is very unlikely to become a larger part of our grid supply. Aside from public resistance and the unsolved radioactive waste problem, nuclear is simply too expensive**

Not only that, but when you take into account uranium mining and transport, and storage of spent safety rods in inadaquate facilities, nuclear is clearly not carbon-nuetral. And the risks of an accident are too great to consider- the Chernobyl accident was so expensive, it crippled the Soviet economy and opened the door for glasnost and the eventual failure of the soviet government system. A lot of problems could be solved with breeder reactors, but they create other serious issues, most importantly that they use plutonium that could potentially find its way into weapons. Nuclear is highly unlikely to be a viable answer, at least not the current technology.
Quoting LargoFl:
Anyone notice something unusual this year in florida's rainstorms? HAIL?..been here almost 30 years and only seen hail maybe..2-3 times..now all of a sudden with each weather warning..it includes hail every day...are they just warning there COULD be hail to be on the safe side or..has there been..hail with this years storms?..anyone know?


I know I have read reports of hail on several occasions with the storms in Central Florida so far this year. Personally, however, I have not seen hail here since 1993! My dad and others have seen hail here several times since then, but I always miss it. One such occasion was about a month ago in the Disney area.

When I lived in Northern VA, I saw thunderstorm hail twice in a year and a half.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I know I have read reports of hail on several occasions with the storms in Central Florida so far this year. Personally, however, I have not seen hail here since 1993! My dad and others have seen hail here several times since then, but I always miss it. One such occasion was about a month ago in the Disney area.

When I lived in Northern VA, I saw thunderstorm hail twice in a year and a half.


Haven't seen hail in almost two years here...
It is amazing that a thunderstorm with a flash flood warning associated with it caused this.





Just shows you how dry it actually is. WFTV reported this cell cell had over 300 lightning strikes as it moved over portions of North Brevard County near Cocoa. This caused 3 separate fires in the area about 1 hour ago and now have merged into 1. Evacuations underway as fire jumped the expressway...
Quoting Patrap:
Published on Apr 19, 2012 by connectingdots1

April 17, 2012: Senator Ron Wyden (D-Oregon), appeared on MSNBC's The Daily Rundown to discuss a recent onsite tour of what remains of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facilities decimated by last year's earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

Wyden, a senior member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, sent a letter to Japanese Ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki looking for ways to advance and support clean-up and recovery efforts. Wyden's principal concern is the relocation of spent fuel rods currently being stored in unsound structures immediately adjacent to the ocean. He strongly urged the Ambassador to accept international help to prevent dangerous nuclear material from being released into the environment.

and Akio Matsumura talks about nuclear power plants, spent fuel pools, and the trouble with Reactor 4 at Fukushima.




Every day, first thing I do is pull up the seismic map and see if it has happened yet.

"This is a serious issue than people think. And I asked everybody, what is the worst case scenario this Fukushima? The scientists told me, their concern is reactor number four, which I didn't understand. 'What do you mean by that?'

"Then, now, I understood fully that spent fuel pool of reactor number four, second floor, there 1535 spent fuel rod in the pool. And if another earthquake come, and the building collapse or leak water during, then that produce several times of radiation cesium-137 than Chernobyl accident."

...

"But this reactor number four, all spent fuel rod in the pool not within containment vessel or pressure vessel. So, in the sky! On the ground! If that collapse, people said to me more than 50 years might take to contain radiation, so during 50 years, radiation continue on."


Remember too, there are MOX fuel rods on site. That means plutonium, and the half-life of some of its isotopes puts Cs-137 to shame.

If reactor number 4 spent fuel pool comes down, or water is drained from it, control of the site will be completely lost (as in humans can't do anything meaningful anywhere near it without dying), and the other spent fuel pools will eventually catch fire too. Thank God Japan never has any earthquakes.

Have a nice day :)

WTO
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Haven't seen hail in almost two years here...


The hail I did see in your area was small, around dime size. I really enjoyed the climate there, four nice well-balanced seasons, enough thunderstorms/severe weather, some frozen precip, etc. The winds on some fall and spring days were as impressive as many of the tropical storm winds we experience here in inland Central FL (except a very infrequent direct hit by a strong ts/hurricane of course).

Also, the storms today are taking their time developing in the Orlando area. I suspect development will be sudden and explosive upon seabreeze collision. We could also not end up getting anything much; I have seen it happen many times before.
Quoting Hurricane1216:
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Yeah, we know :)
I figured since everyone else was doing it I should probably write up a New Blog Entry on Aletta as well as the potential storm behind her :)

I suppose everyone can guess that this is happening:

Global Biodiversity Down 30 Percent in 40 Years
They're on their way!

Quoting RTSplayer:
If you cover 1% of the Earth's surface in parabolic trough boilers, and have a smart distribution system, you can power all human activities everywhere on the planet, non-stop forever.

Approximately what is 1% of the earths surface.
Keeping in mind that this can be seen as total Earth, or land surface earth?
I'll look it up in a minute then maybe we can translate it into how many state surface areas it is and approximately which countries is would cover?
As far as I can see it we have a vast desert in the form of the Sahara a few miles south of me. It seldom rains or has cloud cover. Nothing much grows there and its very hot. Apart from the Dakar rally nothing much goes across it as there are almost no roads.In size its millions of Sq Miles.
Question:- who's going to cover it with solar panels? How do you move the power to the people who need it?
The answers to these questions are also the answers to the power shortage!
who needs Viagra when you have Hurricane season...............
The 12Z GFS has the Caribbean disturbance attaining tropical depression status in 132 hours. That's Monday guys. Not in the long range anymore.

For those who may want to know about how is the ACE doing so far in the EPAC and WPAC,I have a blog for that.

Link
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
First of all, the amount of radiation released from military testing is not nearly as high or as easily spread as what is released from a reactor meltdown. You have to understand the different methods of radiation poisoning...

Nuclear bombs send out an initial burst of gamma rays upon detonation, and a fair amount of radioactive material in the form of dust is scattered in the wind and disperses rather quickly. But a nuclear plant meltdown is a continuous source of radioactive particles including the more deadly and longer-lasting atoms of cesium and strontium. Since these are single atoms floating in the air, they can travel around forever unless they happen to settle on the ground or in your lungs. For at least 33 years, each cesium atom will constantly be emitting gamma rays which will eventually screw up DNA and cause cancer.

If radiation levels in your area are low and at normal levels you may assume that Fukushima has not had an affect on your area, but as far as you know, you may have inhaled an atom of cesium originating from the reactor all the way in Japan. You could develop cancer in 15+ years due to that ONE atom constantly emitting radiation, but you would never know that Fukushima was to blame.

So, nuclear bomb test do release a good amount of radiation, but they luckily tend to throw out particles and chunks of contaminated matter instead of the pure radioactive elements themselves. Hope that made sense.


You have an incorrect understanding of radiation.

Once a radioactive atom fissions, that radioactive atom has split into it's daughter products. Thus, a single Cesium atom will radiate once and only once, then split into it's daughter products.

Half-life is the probabilistic model of nuclear fissioning for an element. A half-life of 30 years (Cesium of 137) means that if you have a lump of Cesium 137, then 30 years from now only half of that lump will still be Cesium 137 with the rest of the mass having fissioned into daughter products. So a Cesium atom will not hang around emitting radiation for 30 years. It will hang around until it fissions (releasing energy, which is the radiation) and then won't be there anymore. A cesium atom can fission at any time, from immediately to a billion years from now, however on average half of all cesium atoms in a group fission within 30 years.

It is impossible for a single atom of anything causing cancer. We would not be here as a species otherwise. Believe or not, DNA (and life in general) have developed quite a robust set of damage detection and reparation capabilities. Which is a good thing because we are constantly exposed to all kinds of radioactive materials from potassium to polonium to americium. To cause enough damage to cause cancer takes quite a bit of radiation exposure. Even people exposed to enough radiation to cause radiation sickness don't necessarily get cancer (though they are at an increased risk). You can find radiation exposure and the effects of it by some quick google searching. Radiation isn't nearly the big scary monster you make it out to be.

You are also incorrect about nuclear detonations. Nuclear detonations operate at much higher temperatures than what you'll find in any meltdown. Nuclear detonations are criticality events. They atomize all radioactive materials during their detonation which allows materials to be spread far and wide. This is easily proven by the fact that materials that do not exits in nature (such as cesium 137) have been detectable all over the world for decades thanks to high-altitude nuclear testing.

In contrast, in a meltdown most of the radioactive material stays in the reactor. Even in Chernobyl most of the radioactive material stayed in the plant (as can be seen by the pictures of corium). The volatile materials can be boiled off if the temperatures get high enough, or if the material happens to be reactive with water (cesium readily forms compounds with water, rather explosively I might add) then they can be carried or gassed off. But most of the materials don't go far.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I have 15 solar landscape lights in my yard, 8 in front yard and 7 in back yard. They beautify the landscape at night....that's about all it does for now.


I have a couple racks of solar panels in my yard.

They give me about 95% of my electricity. I've gotten almost all of my electricity from solar for over 20 years.

"that's about all it does for now"

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's the Euro for Sunday and notice how the ULL cuts off over FL.



That's a ridge. not a trough;)
Well my lake is getting rained on. Just seems the storms are moving in a weird direction.

Statement as of 4:23 PM CDT on May 15, 2012

... Significant weather advisory...

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a significant
weather advisory... effective until 530 PM CDT... for the following
counties...

In eastern Texas...
Nacogdoches... San Augustine and Angelina...

Including the following locations...
Etoile... Huntington... Pollok and Woden...

At 420 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were
detecting strong thunderstorms along a line extending from
Nacogdoches to Woden to Etoile to 10 miles southwest of Macune to
Pineland... moving southwest at 10 mph.

Penny size hail... and winds 30 to 40 mph are expected with these
storms.

This next National Hurricane Center advisory (8 PM PDT/11 PM EDT) will likely be the determinant of the peak intensity of Tropical Storm Aletta. The cyclone should be on the decline in intensity tomorrow morning.

CIMSS ADT is up to 3.2, or 49 kt (~60 mph). It's all up to SAB/TAFB which comes out in a few hours.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


No there not. Where are you seeing this as I don't see it on the GFS or HPC.>


It appearsd by these charts that this feature will peter-out toward Bermuda.





Models seem to like the Sub-tropical storm along the SE coast currently, They also like it hitting North carolina :P
Quoting PlazaRed:

Approximately what is 1% of the earths surface.
Keeping in mind that this can be seen as total Earth, or land surface earth?
I'll look it up in a minute then maybe we can translate it into how many state surface areas it is and approximately which countries is would cover?
As far as I can see it we have a vast desert in the form of the Sahara a few miles south of me. It seldom rains or has cloud cover. Nothing much grows there and its very hot. Apart from the Dakar rally nothing much goes across it as there are almost no roads.In size its millions of Sq Miles.
Question:- who's going to cover it with solar panels? How do you move the power to the people who need it?
The answers to these questions are also the answers to the power shortage!


See the largest red square? That's how much of the Sahara desert we would have to cover with thermal solar systems if we wanted to power 100% of the world with solar from North Africa.




The medium sized square illustrates how much space it would take to furnish Europe with 100% of its power.

The smallest square illustrates how much space it would take to power North Africa.

Now, no one is suggesting that we power the entire world with solar and certainly no one is suggesting we power the world from North Africa. This is just an illustration of how little land it would take to power ourselves.

Add in lots of hydro, lots of wind, a fair amount of tidal and geothermal. Put a lot of the solar on rooftops and over parking lots.

Spread sourcing around so that transmission lines are minimized.

Add in some storage to make electricity available when we want it. Back it up with some natural and biogas generation.

That's a future energy grid that we can live with. One that won't cause us to cook our planet.
192. Xeloi
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Break out the electric car, stove, and everything, but where does you electricity come from if you dont want nuclear power?
There are not enough dams in the world to give you what you want.
For the foreseeable future, natural gas, coal, and oil are going to be integral parts of society, until nuclear power takes over.
We simply are not capable of operating otherwise at a very functional level.

Bring on the nuclear.


The oil companies have been raking in record profits over the last decade or so. Subsidies are intended to aid local industries compete with international ones. With oil companies, the idea of "local" or even "national" hardly means anything at all anymore. Our tax dollars are being handed to the richest corporations in the world to increase their already mind-numbing profits. Reducing the subsidies isn't going to change a thing, as oil prices are set more by speculation than the cost of getting the product to the consumer anyway. So reducing the subsidies will have a most a marginal effect at the pump anyway -- unless the oil companies collude to increase prices. Which they already do.

Given the struggles of hard-working people all over the country (and the world, even), I think we can find a better place to spend this cash.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Models seem to like the Sub-tropical storm along the SE coast currently, They also like it hitting North carolina :P

The CMC develops it into a tropical storm and sends it into North Carolina. The NOGAPS develops a tropical storm and sends it out to sea. The ECMWF develops a weak area of low pressure and sends it into North Carolina. The GFS develops a very, very weak low and sends it out to sea.

We'll watch it, but it doesn't look like it has too much potential.
While something forms south of the Yucatan Channel...



...and heads towards the Isle of Youth by Tuesday.

most of the time epac is just a tease
Noting:- 191. BobWallace
Thank you for that, you put it into perspective a lot better than I could have done.
From your illustration I would say about the size of Portugal or Italy!
I would give "Alberto" about a 30%/100% chance of developing within the next seven days. I would, however, give "Bud" about an 80%/100% chance of developing within the next week.
OK, let's try a different way to power the World. PV panels.

Each green square/rectangle illustrates how much of that region's area would need to be covered with solar panels if we got 100% of our electricity from solar panels.

solar world II

And those rectangles are a bit large. PV panels have gotten more efficient since this was drawn.

Again, no one suggests 100% solar. Perhaps 30% - 40% from solar. That sort of installation could be done on existing rooftops and over parking lots.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Every day, first thing I do is pull up the seismic map and see if it has happened yet.

"This is a serious issue than people think. And I asked everybody, what is the worst case scenario this Fukushima? The scientists told me, their concern is reactor number four, which I didn't understand. 'What do you mean by that?'

"Then, now, I understood fully that spent fuel pool of reactor number four, second floor, there 1535 spent fuel rod in the pool. And if another earthquake come, and the building collapse or leak water during, then that produce several times of radiation cesium-137 than Chernobyl accident."

...

"But this reactor number four, all spent fuel rod in the pool not within containment vessel or pressure vessel. So, in the sky! On the ground! If that collapse, people said to me more than 50 years might take to contain radiation, so during 50 years, radiation continue on."


Remember too, there are MOX fuel rods on site. That means plutonium, and the half-life of some of its isotopes puts Cs-137 to shame.

If reactor number 4 spent fuel pool comes down, or water is drained from it, control of the site will be completely lost (as in humans can't do anything meaningful anywhere near it without dying), and the other spent fuel pools will eventually catch fire too. Thank God Japan never has any earthquakes.

Have a nice day :)

WTO


You seem to be a little confused on the whole half-life issue. Isotopes with shorter half-lives are more deadly than isotopes with longer half-lives since the shorter the half-life, the more radioactive they are. This is why isotopes like radioactive iodine (half life of 8 days) and cesium (half-life of 30 years) are much larger concerns when compared to uranium (most isotopes have a half-life of 100,000 years or greater) and plutonium (24,000 years). Also, plutonium and uranium are absorbed by the body very slowly in contrast to iodine and cesium which are absorbed very quickly.

In short, you don't want to be messing with any of these materials.
Look what we have here.

Quoting BobWallace:
OK, let's try a different way to power the World. PV panels.

Each green square/rectangle illustrates how much of that region's area would need to be covered with solar panels if we got 100% of our electricity from solar panels.

solar world II

And those rectangles are a bit large. PV panels have gotten more efficient since this was drawn.

Again, no one suggests 100% solar. Perhaps 30% - 40% from solar. That sort of installation could be done on existing rooftops and over parking lots.



That is totally amazing that only that much surface area covered with solar panels would power the world. Thanks for sharing...
And, while I'm on a roll (and avoiding mowing the orchard), let's look at powering the World with 100% offshore wind...


<>img src="Photobucket">



Once more, no one has any intention of 100% offshore wind for our electricity.

Take a look at the three illustrations I've posted - thermal solar, PV solar and offshore wind. Take a bit here, a bit there, add in hydro, geothermal, tidal, biomass, biogas, and wave. We can spread our generation out, keep it reasonably close to where it will get used, and use what is most available in each region.

We can power ourselves with systems which use no fuel, with energy sources which will not run out for hundreds of millions/billions of years.
Poll time:
When will see Alberto?
A. May
B. June
C. July
D. After

Bud?
A. This week
B. Next week
C. First half of June
D. Second half of June
Quoting emcf30:


That is totally amazing that only that much surface area covered with solar panels would power the world. Thanks for sharing...
alot of people here around me have lots of solar panels on their rooftops..must be saving a bundle on electric bills
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
When will see Alberto?
A. May
B. June
C. July
D. After

Bud?
A. This week
B. Next week
C. First half of June
D. Second half of June


Part 1: A
Part 2: B
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
When will see Alberto?
A. May
B. June
C. July
D. After

Bud?
A. This week
B. Next week
C. First half of June
D. Second half of June

I'm going to be a little bullish with the first question even though I just stated that the disturbance had a low chance, and will go with...

1.) A
2.) A
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
When will see Alberto?
A. May
B. June
C. July
D. After

Bud?
A. This week
B. Next week
C. First half of June
D. Second half of June

B
A
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
When will see Alberto?
A. May
B. June
C. July
D. After

Bud?
A. This week
B. Next week
C. First half of June
D. Second half of June

A
B
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLC099-160000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0019.120515T2205Z-120516T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...FLORIDA GARDENS...
LAKE WORTH...AND BOYNTON BEACH...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 602 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING FROM ABERDEEN TO FLORIDA GARDENS AND
MOVING INTO THE BOYNTON BEACH AND LAKE WORTH AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR
HAS ESTIMATED THAT ALREADY UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
ALONG STATE ROAD 441 NEAR ABERDEEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2655 8004 2649 8005 2642 8028 2664 8031
2665 8005 2660 8003 2660 8004 2660 8003
2658 8003 2655 8003

$$

GREGORIA
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
When will see Alberto?
A. May
B. June
C. July
D. After

Bud?
A. This week
B. Next week
C. First half of June
D. Second half of June


B,A
Outflow boundaries? Not a good sign for Aletta (almost typed Arlene lol).

Good rotation on this storm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
624 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILL...MAYTOWN...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.

* AT 623 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MAYTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FARMTON AND LAKE HARNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2906 8098 2881 8080 2879 8085 2879 8097
2874 8096 2871 8101 2876 8106 2879 8106
2881 8107 2883 8111 2882 8113 2889 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 335DEG 15KT 2891 8103

$$


WEITLICH
Quoting LargoFl:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLC099-160000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0019.120515T2205Z-120516T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...FLORIDA GARDENS...
LAKE WORTH...AND BOYNTON BEACH...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 602 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING FROM ABERDEEN TO FLORIDA GARDENS AND
MOVING INTO THE BOYNTON BEACH AND LAKE WORTH AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR
HAS ESTIMATED THAT ALREADY UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
ALONG STATE ROAD 441 NEAR ABERDEEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2655 8004 2649 8005 2642 8028 2664 8031
2665 8005 2660 8003 2660 8004 2660 8003
2658 8003 2655 8003

$$

GREGORIA

And, of course, high and dry in Pinellas and Hillsborough....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Outflow boundaries? Not a good sign for Aletta (almost typed Arlene lol).


I've almost typed Alberto a hundred times today when I typed Aletta.
however, we did get a good rain last night.
Quoting emcf30:


That is totally amazing that only that much surface area covered with solar panels would power the world. Thanks for sharing...

Ive got 2 Square yards,(18 Sq Ft,)on my workshop roof and that powers the place, including a cement mixer and hand electric tools. I installed it 5 years ago at a cost of about $600 including 2 second hand, large car batteries.
On very rare occasions I have resorted to a petrol generator for back up but petrol consumption has been less than 2 gallons over the 5 years.
My average home use of mains/grid electricity is 2 kilowatts a day this gives a bill of about $10 a month.
Even with such a low cost in electric power, it is still costing me about $120 dollars a year plus of course standing conection charges. Taking all into account my electric bills are about 50 cent US a day and I am working on reducing this.
The above figures are for a 3 bedroom town house 36 degrees north of the equator.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


What you are talking about is 900 nuclear blasts over 50 years. Fukushima is a continuous blast for over a year. Figure that into your equation.

Added - and Fukushima is ongoing.
Question - What do you do with the spent fuel rods? Send them to China to make children's toys? Really, what do you do with the spent fuel rods???


Reprocess them since they are still contain a good chunk of their fuel. Seriously, without reprocessing you end up greatly increasing your wastes while simultaneously throwing out a huge amount of power you could be generating. This is why France can be over 70% nuclear while having a much much smaller waste problem. They reprocess spent fuel rods multiple times to extract as much power as they can, and in the end have a much smaller amount of waste to handle.

Better yet, if we could start implementing some more modern and/or thorium based designs we'd eliminate melt-down risks entirely as well as have a more efficient fuels cycle (plus there is enough thorium to last thousands of years).

But that won't happen in this country.
Let me share one more thing that I think is a wonderful idea. It's a concept called Desertec and it's a grid project designed for Europe and North Africa in which each area supplies what it has to the larger grid.

img src="Photobucket">

From Iceland comes geothermal and hydro. Denmark and the British Isles have great wind potential. Sweden has lots of hydro. North Africa, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and the Middle East have abundant solar. The British Isles and Ireland have tidal. Etc.

The system is already underway. High voltage DC lines move power between Spain and North Africa, between the British Isles. Plans are underway for the connecting cables between Iceland and England. Germany is already selling solar to France. New solar plants are being built in North Africa and the Middle East is planning immense solar systems.

Similar systems have been designed for other parts of the world. We should be working toward a similar system for North America. From the immense tidal resources of the Bay of Fundy to the sunny deserts of Mexico.

Do so and we minimize the amount of storage and backup generation we need. We can share those resources between regions.
Largo, is there anything forecast to come our way today??
Quoting goosegirl1:
**Nuclear is very unlikely to become a larger part of our grid supply. Aside from public resistance and the unsolved radioactive waste problem, nuclear is simply too expensive**

Not only that, but when you take into account uranium mining and transport, and storage of spent safety rods in inadaquate facilities, nuclear is clearly not carbon-nuetral. And the risks of an accident are too great to consider- the Chernobyl accident was so expensive, it crippled the Soviet economy and opened the door for glasnost and the eventual failure of the soviet government system. A lot of problems could be solved with breeder reactors, but they create other serious issues, most importantly that they use plutonium that could potentially find its way into weapons. Nuclear is highly unlikely to be a viable answer, at least not the current technology.


Chernobyl had little to do with Glasnost. By the time Chernobyl happened the Soviet Union was already crumbling under the immense strain of trying to keep up with the US militarily. The writing was already on the wall at that point. The overall cost of Chernobyl was barely a drop in the bucket when compared against their military spending.


The front is setting up just north... that's a good sign!!
Quoting BobWallace:
And, while I'm on a roll (and avoiding mowing the orchard), let's look at powering the World with 100% offshore wind...

img src="Photobucket">

Once more, no one has any intention of 100% offshore wind for our electricity.

Take a look at the three illustrations I've posted - thermal solar, PV solar and offshore wind. Take a bit here, a bit there, add in hydro, geothermal, tidal, biomass, biogas, and wave. We can spread our generation out, keep it reasonably close to where it will get used, and use what is most available in each region.

We can power ourselves with systems which use no fuel, with energy sources which will not run out for hundreds of millions/billions of years.



Thats why you get a mix in there... between hydro, solar, wind, and now fusion power being given to the highest bidder in europe. I say we are off oil except for cars in 40-50 years.
Since there is so much talk of all the rain that has fallen in FL, and that we are out of drought conditions...thought I would share this local station info down the road....as you can see, we have had 1 day with precip of .91 this month.....that is all....

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reprocess them since they are still contain a good chunk of their fuel. Seriously, without reprocessing you end up greatly increasing your wastes while simultaneously throwing out a huge amount of power you could be generating. This is why France can be over 70% nuclear while having a much much smaller waste problem. They reprocess spent fuel rods multiple times to extract as much power as they can, and in the end have a much smaller amount of waste to handle.

Better yet, if we could start implementing some more modern and/or thorium based designs we'd eliminate melt-down risks entirely as well as have a more efficient fuels cycle (plus there is enough thorium to last thousands of years).

But that won't happen in this country.


But France has no long term solution for the waste that is left.

Right now they are encasing it in glass and "storing it in the basement".

We just don't need nuclear. There's no reason to make the problems we have any larger. Time to cut our losses and move on to clean, safe, affordable energy.
L9 67 dBZ 43,000 ft. VIL 56 kg/m² Severe Hail 90% chance Hail 100% chance Max hail size 2.00 in. Direction from 12 knots NW (321)
Just east of Deltona...
18z GFS

I am writing letters to service men and I would like someone to check my grammar and such. Hope you guys don't mind me posting it.


Greetings Sir or Madam,

I am a student attending Woodward Academy. I am sending this letter to commend you for your service overseas. I imagine it must be hard not being home over the holidays and everything, but I, and many other people, appreciate the generous sacrifices you make in the course of your duty. I fear for the safety of our troops and the future of our country; my school and others are sending these letters to honor you.

I hope you don’t mind, but I have some questions for you: What sort of music do you like? Where are you stationed at? What is your day like? Have you ever seen combat? Are there any fun things to do over there? What were you doing before the war? Are you ever scared? What is the first thing you will do when you come back? Once again I’d like to express to you how much we value your service. You have all of our respect and support.

Best Regards,
Charlie Wammock
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am writing letters to service men and I would like someone to check my grammar and such. Hope you guys don't mind me posting it.


Greetings Sir or Madam,

I am a student attending Woodward Academy. I am sending this letter to commend you for your service overseas. I imagine it must be hard not being home over the holidays and everything, but I, and many other people, appreciate the generous sacrifices you make in the course of your duty. I fear for the safety of our troops and the future of our country; my school and others are sending these letters to honor you.

I hope you don’t mind, but I have some questions for you: What sort of music do you like? Where are you stationed at? What is your day like? Have you ever seen combat? Are there any fun things to do over there? What were you doing before the war? Are you ever scared? What is the first thing you will do when you come back? Once again I’d like to express to you how much we value your service. You have all of our respect and support.

Best Regards,
Charlie Wammock


Very well written. 10+
Quoting Sangria:
Since there is so much talk of all the rain that has fallen in FL, and that we are out of drought conditions...thought I would share this local station info down the road....as you can see, we have had 1 day with precip of .91 this month.....that is all....



Heck, the area that I live at has only seen a trace of rain for over a month now. Looks like tonight is going to be the same. Hear lots of thunder, but no rain...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS



Hurricane Bud in EPAC.Nada in Caribbean.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am writing letters to service men and I would like someone to check my grammar and such. Hope you guys don't mind me posting it.


Greetings Sir or Madam,

I am a student attending Woodward Academy. I am sending this letter to commend you for your service overseas. I imagine it must be hard not being home over the holidays and everything, but I, and many other people, appreciate the generous sacrifices you make in the course of your duty. I fear for the safety of our troops and the future of our country; my school and others are sending these letters to honor you.

I hope you don’t mind, but I have some questions for you: What sort of music do you like? Where are you stationed at? What is your day like? Have you ever seen combat? Are there any fun things to do over there? What were you doing before the war? Are you ever scared? What is the first thing you will do when you come back? Once again I’d like to express to you how much we value your service. You have all of our respect and support.

Best Regards,
Charlie Wammock

If it was myself writing the letter I would combine the first two sentences, but that's just me.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS



Well then. Bud looks angry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it was myself writing the letter I would combine the first two sentences, but that's just me.
I see what you mean. If you don't start out with the Dear...., it sounds a bit choppy.
Quoting ClevelandBob:


Well then. Bud looks angry.

Cat 5 with a pinhole eye.... gone annular.



LOL
Seriously though whats the pressure in the center of it? I can'tsee it good on my monitor..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats why you get a mix in there... between hydro, solar, wind, and now fusion power being given to the highest bidder in europe. I say we are off oil except for cars in 40-50 years.


We could be close to 100% oil-free for personal transportation in 20 years.

Right now almost all of us could do quite well with either a 100 mile range EV or a plug-in hybrid like the Chevy Volt. We'd cut our oil usage to less than 20% of what it now is.

The remaining needs for oil are mainly air and ocean going ships.

We can fly planes on biofuels, we already are. It's not clear that we can afford to use a lot of food-producing land for biofuels, so the rest of that solution is to build high speed rail for moderate length travel. We could move a lot of our present air travel to electrified rail.

(I just came back from France. I'll take HSR for moderate length trips over air any day. No checking in two hours early, much more comfortable, something to see out the window other than sky, ....)

We can move a lot of our freight to electrified rail.
Perishable goods can travel on HSR systems late at night when there is little passenger travel.

We can get ourselves largely free of oil. And rapidly, if we decide to do so.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS

Look like Bud will be a hurricane am waiting for Daniel for 2 reasons one its almost a hurricane in all of its because 4 of its incarnation he become a major hurricane an almost all of them threaten Hawaii and 2 because a very special person that I love is name Daniel.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it was myself writing the letter I would combine the first two sentences, but that's just me.

Oh, and if you want it to sound more professional, I would consider removing the "and everything". Again, that's just me.
Quoting thunderbug91:

Cat 5 with a pinhole eye.... gone annular.



LOL
Seriously though whats the pressure in the center of it? I can'tsee it good on my monitor..

It says 995 millibars, but with a representation on the model like that, the pressure is probably a great deal lower.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It says 995 millibars, but with a representation on the model like that, the pressure is probably a great deal lower.

Yea that's a strong looking storm.
Flood Advisory for Palm Beach County, huh? Tell my friend Noah that he must build an ark...NOW! Or should he wait 'til the next hurricane.
Good evening all
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all

good ev'nin'....
I wish the National Hurricane Center would implement their five day Tropical Weather Outlook instead of keeping it in wraps. From what I've heard, it is really accurate.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wish the National Hurricane Center would implement their five day Tropical Weather Outlook instead of keeping it in wraps. From what I've heard, it is really good.

Yes, why can't we put our fingers in the cookie jar too?? They have so many excellent resources that they never share....And I wish they would give us access to it all.
Can someone please tell how to change my profile pic please?
Quoting allancalderini:
Can someone please tell how to change my profile pic please?

Go to photo galleries, go to lower right-hand side, click "edit photo profile" and it will help u from there.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am writing letters to service men and I would like someone to check my grammar and such. Hope you guys don't mind me posting it.


Greetings Sir or Madam,

I am a student attending Woodward Academy. I am sending this letter to commend you for your service overseas. I imagine it must be hard not being home over the holidays and everything, but I, and many other people, appreciate the generous sacrifices you make in the course of your duty. I fear for the safety of our troops and the future of our country; my school and others are sending these letters to honor you.

I hope you don’t mind, but I have some questions for you: What sort of music do you like? Where are you stationed at? What is your day like? Have you ever seen combat? Are there any fun things to do over there? What were you doing before the war? Are you ever scared? What is the first thing you will do when you come back? Once again I’d like to express to you how much we value your service. You have all of our respect and support.

Best Regards,
Charlie Wammock

Quoting allancalderini:
Can someone please tell how to change my profile pic please?

Click on your current photo, and click on the Upload Photos button on the page that you are taken to. After that, upload it and in the right column, it will ask if you want to save as your main portrait or not.
My bad, you have to select "my photos" first on the photo galleries page for the "edit" tab to appear..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Click on your current photo, and click on the Upload Photos button on the page that you are taken to. After that, upload it and in the right column, it will ask if you want to save as your main portrait or not.

Nevermind, your way is much easier... lol
Good letter, Charlie, but eliminate the word "at" which ends one of your sentences.  Change the sentence to "Where are you stationed?"  Sentences should not end with a preposition.
All one would ever need for the Tropics..anytime.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


Large Satellite Animations from NOAA/NESDIS and Others
Caribbean/W. Atlantic Visible
Caribbean/W. Atlantic Infrared
Caribbean/W. Atlantic Water Vapor
Gulf of Mexico Visible
Gulf of Mexico Infrared
North Atlantic Visible
North Atlantic Infrared
North Atlantic Water Vapor
Central Atlantic Visible
Central Atlantic Infrared
Northwest Atlantic Visible
Northwest Atlantic Infrared
Northwest Atlantic Water Vapor
Tropical Floater Visible
Tropical Floater Visible #2
Tropical Floater Visible #3
Tropical Floater Visible #4
Tropical Floater Infrared
Tropical Floater Infrared #2
Tropical Floater Infrared #3
Tropical Floater Infrared #4
Eastern Pacific Visible
Eastern Pacific Infrared
Central Pacific Visible
Central Pacific Infrared
Northeast Pacific Visible
Northeast Pacific Infrared
West Pacific Visible
West Pacific Infrared
Northwest Pacific Visible
Northwest Pacific Infrared
National Hurricane Center satellite images
Tropical Satellite Imagery from Colorado State
Real-time Tropical Imagery
Atlantic wind shear (University of Wisconsin CIMSS tropical products)
NOAA RAMMB imagery (great new site in 2007!)
QuikSCAT satellite winds
Microwave Satellite data from the Navy Research Lab
Atlantic hurricane potential (NOAA/Climate Prediction Center)
National Data Buoy Center
Morphed microwave data (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)
Surface wind analysis (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
Saharan air layer (University of Wisconsin CIMSS tropical products)
Computer model forecasts
Basics of hurricane forecast models (Dr. Jeff Masters, wunderground.com, updated 2007)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NHC, updated 2007)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NOAA/AOML)
GFS model, Atlantic (wunderground)
GFS model, Atlantic (NCEP)
NOGAPS model, Atlantic (Navy)
Canadian (GEM) model
ECMWF model, North America
Multi-model track and intensity guidance (CSU)
Multi-model track and intensity guidance (Dr. Kerry Emanuel, MIT)
Cyclogenesis tracking page (NOAA/NCEP)
CIRA's experimental tropical cyclone formation products
Rain information
U.S. 24-hour rainfall (wunderground.com)
3-hourly rain (NASA hurricane portal)
Rain forecast (NOAA)
Rain estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite
Forecast Centers
National Hurricane Center
TAFB marine forecasts for the Atlantic
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Canadian Hurricane Center
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
India Meteorological Department
Philippines (PAGASA)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Fiji Meteorological Service
Meteo France La Reunion
Jakarta, Indonesia TCWC
Long range and seasonal forecasts
Analysis of the 2011 long-range Atlantic hurricane season forecasts (Dr. Jeff Masters, wunderground.com)
Colorado State University (Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach) Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (monthly updates)
NOAA (updates in May and August)
UK Met Office Atlantic seasonal forecast (GloSea model). Updates June 19
NOAA CFS model seasonal forecasts
IRI (global computer model forecasts)
Western Pacific seasonal forecast (City University of Hong Kong)
1-2 week tropical forecast (NOAA/CPC)
Sea Surface Temperature Data
Sea Surface Temperature imagery from NOAA/NESDIS
Sea Surface Temperature imagery from the National Hurricane Center
NOAA/AOML ocean heat content and SSTs
University of Miami ocean heat content and SSTs
30-day forecasts for Atlantic (U.S. Navy)
Sea Surface Temperature imagery from U.S. Navy
Aircraft Reconnaissance Sites
NOAA Hurricane Hunters Home Page
Air Force Hurricane Hunters Home Page
Hurricane FAQs, Names, and Other Links
Hurricane Frequently Asked Questions
Hurricane Names for the coming year
Wind shear tutorial
NOAA's interactive historical tracking tool
NOAA's Hurricane Research Division home page
Digital Typhoon (Typhoon info from Japan)
typhoon2000.com (Typhoon info from the Philippines)
Australian severe weather
Hurricane Disaster Relief & Information
Hurricane Education from hurricanescience.org (High school level)
Hurricane Education from the UCAR Comet program (College level)
Safe hurricane harbors info for boaters
Caribbean Hurricane Network
Storm chaser hurricane footage UltimateChase.com
Storm chaser hurricane footage from Jim Edds
Storm chaser hurricane footage from Jim Leonard
Storm chaser hurricane footage from Rich Horodner
Storm chaser hurricane photos from stormchaser.ca
Severe and unusual weather photos from Jim Reed
Live streaming weather talk on hurricanes
Info and nightly live discussions on hurricanes from hurricanecity.com
Quoting palmbeachteach:
Good letter, Charlie, but eliminate the word "at" which ends one of your sentences.  Change the sentence to "Where are you stationed?"  Sentences should not end with a preposition.
Thank you.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I am writing letters to service men and I would like someone to check my grammar and such. Hope you guys don't mind me posting it.


Greetings Sir or Madam,

I am a student attending Woodward Academy. I am


Great letter and good for you.
Quoting Patrap:
All one would ever need for the Tropics..anytime.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


Large Satellite Animations from NOAA/NESDIS and Others
Caribbean/W. Atlantic Visible
Caribbean/W. Atlantic Infrared
Caribbean/W. Atlantic Water Vapor
Gulf of Mexico Visible
Gulf of Mexico Infrared
North Atlantic Visible
North Atlantic Infrared
North Atlantic Water Vapor
Central Atlantic Visible
Central Atlantic Infrared
Northwest Atlantic Visible
Northwest Atlantic Infrared
Northwest Atlantic Water Vapor
Tropical Floater Visible
Tropical Floater Visible #2
Tropical Floater Visible #3
Tropical Floater Visible #4
Tropical Floater Infrared
Tropical Floater Infrared #2
Tropical Floater Infrared #3
Tropical Floater Infrared #4
Eastern Pacific Visible
Eastern Pacific Infrared
Central Pacific Visible
Central Pacific Infrared
Northeast Pacific Visible
Northeast Pacific Infrared
West Pacific Visible
West Pacific Infrared
Northwest Pacific Visible
Northwest Pacific Infrared
National Hurricane Center satellite images
Tropical Satellite Imagery from Colorado State
Real-time Tropical Imagery
Atlantic wind shear (University of Wisconsin CIMSS tropical products)
NOAA RAMMB imagery (great new site in 2007!)
QuikSCAT satellite winds
Microwave Satellite data from the Navy Research Lab
Atlantic hurricane potential (NOAA/Climate Prediction Center)
National Data Buoy Center
Morphed microwave data (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)
Surface wind analysis (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
Saharan air layer (University of Wisconsin CIMSS tropical products)
Computer model forecasts
Basics of hurricane forecast models (Dr. Jeff Masters, wunderground.com, updated 2007)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NHC, updated 2007)
Description of computer models used for hurricane forecasts (NOAA/AOML)
GFS model, Atlantic (wunderground)
GFS model, Atlantic (NCEP)
NOGAPS model, Atlantic (Navy)
Canadian (GEM) model
ECMWF model, North America
Multi-model track and intensity guidance (CSU)
Multi-model track and intensity guidance (Dr. Kerry Emanuel, MIT)
Cyclogenesis tracking page (NOAA/NCEP)
CIRA's experimental tropical cyclone formation products
Rain information
U.S. 24-hour rainfall (wunderground.com)
3-hourly rain (NASA hurricane portal)
Rain forecast (NOAA)
Rain estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite
Forecast Centers
National Hurricane Center
TAFB marine forecasts for the Atlantic
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Canadian Hurricane Center
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
India Meteorological Department
Philippines (PAGASA)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Fiji Meteorological Service
Meteo France La Reunion
Jakarta, Indonesia TCWC
Long range and seasonal forecasts
Analysis of the 2011 long-range Atlantic hurricane season forecasts (Dr. Jeff Masters, wunderground.com)
Colorado State University (Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach) Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (monthly updates)
NOAA (updates in May and August)
UK Met Office Atlantic seasonal forecast (GloSea model). Updates June 19
NOAA CFS model seasonal forecasts
IRI (global computer model forecasts)
Western Pacific seasonal forecast (City University of Hong Kong)
1-2 week tropical forecast (NOAA/CPC)
Sea Surface Temperature Data
Sea Surface Temperature imagery from NOAA/NESDIS
Sea Surface Temperature imagery from the National Hurricane Center
NOAA/AOML ocean heat content and SSTs
University of Miami ocean heat content and SSTs
30-day forecasts for Atlantic (U.S. Navy)
Sea Surface Temperature imagery from U.S. Navy
Aircraft Reconnaissance Sites
NOAA Hurricane Hunters Home Page
Air Force Hurricane Hunters Home Page
Hurricane FAQs, Names, and Other Links
Hurricane Frequently Asked Questions
Hurricane Names for the coming year
Wind shear tutorial
NOAA's interactive historical tracking tool
NOAA's Hurricane Research Division home page
Digital Typhoon (Typhoon info from Japan)
typhoon2000.com (Typhoon info from the Philippines)
Australian severe weather
Hurricane Disaster Relief & Information
Hurricane Education from hurricanescience.org (High school level)
Hurricane Education from the UCAR Comet program (College level)
Safe hurricane harbors info for boaters
Caribbean Hurricane Network
Storm chaser hurricane footage UltimateChase.com
Storm chaser hurricane footage from Jim Edds
Storm chaser hurricane footage from Jim Leonard
Storm chaser hurricane footage from Rich Horodner
Storm chaser hurricane photos from stormchaser.ca
Severe and unusual weather photos from Jim Reed
Live streaming weather talk on hurricanes
Info and nightly live discussions on hurricanes from hurricanecity.com

Thanks!! I didn't even know this existed...
Evening! I was reading the climate prediction centers lastest forecast for El Nino and from what I read they seem to think we'll have neutral conditions thru september...wouldnt that lead to perhaps more activity in atlantic than whats currently predicted??
Quoting Patrap:
Oh, and one mo

e-WALL : THE ELECTRONIC MAP WALL

Christmastime!!!!!
May 15, 2012 Daily SOI: 2.62, 30 day SOI: 5.34
Quoting nigel20:
May 15, 2012 Daily SOI: 2.62, 30 day SOI: 5.34

That daily value is down a bit isn't it?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CaneFever: The place to be when the tropics heat up


That's a great link table. Bookmarked.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
First of all, the amount of radiation released from military testing is not nearly as high or as easily spread as what is released from a reactor meltdown. You have to understand the different methods of radiation poisoning...

Nuclear bombs send out an initial burst of gamma rays upon detonation, and a fair amount of radioactive material in the form of dust is scattered in the wind and disperses rather quickly. But a nuclear plant meltdown is a continuous source of radioactive particles including the more deadly and longer-lasting atoms of cesium and strontium. Since these are single atoms floating in the air, they can travel around forever unless they happen to settle on the ground or in your lungs. For at least 33 years, each cesium atom will constantly be emitting gamma rays which will eventually screw up DNA and cause cancer.

If radiation levels in your area are low and at normal levels you may assume that Fukushima has not had an affect on your area, but as far as you know, you may have inhaled an atom of cesium originating from the reactor all the way in Japan. You could develop cancer in 15 years due to that ONE atom constantly emitting radiation, but you would never know that Fukushima was to blame.

So, nuclear bomb test do release a good amount of radiation, but they luckily tend to throw out particles and chunks of contaminated matter instead of the pure radioactive elements themselves. Hope that made sense.
I understand you completely. But I still think this argument alone does not undermine Nuclear Power. Wind farms are not efficient enough power source. Solar power is also no where near as effective YET for mass use. Until we can harness the power of more efficient technologies nuke power is the best IMO. You also have to recognize the fact that what happened at Fukushima was a 1 in a million event. Still this disaster should be a learning lesson to everyone on where to put nuke plants and how to protect them from the very worst. Sry for late response was typing that in class. (It's ok I get out Thursday anyway.)
If Living in a Potential Hurricane Storm Surge Zone.

Evacuate to Higher ground when told to do so.

To do less is well, not wise.



Uploaded by askwestley on Oct 4, 2006

Video taken by Vaccarella Family during/after Hurricane Katrina.






Quoting Levi32:
Good evening.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, May 15th, with Video

The CMC and NOGAPS may actually be correct for once. How quaint.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That daily value is down a bit isn't it?
yeah, it was 14.57 yesterday
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
I think it's just about a certainty that Aletta has peaked at this point... She probably only has 36 hours or so of existence left

Quoting BobWallace:


We could be close to 100% oil-free for personal transportation in 20 years.

Right now almost all of us could do quite well with either a 100 mile range EV or a plug-in hybrid like the Chevy Volt. We'd cut our oil usage to less than 20% of what it now is.

The remaining needs for oil are mainly air and ocean going ships.

We can fly planes on biofuels, we already are. It's not clear that we can afford to use a lot of food-producing land for biofuels, so the rest of that solution is to build high speed rail for moderate length travel. We could move a lot of our present air travel to electrified rail.

(I just came back from France. I'll take HSR for moderate length trips over air any day. No checking in two hours early, much more comfortable, something to see out the window other than sky, ....)

We can move a lot of our freight to electrified rail.
Perishable goods can travel on HSR systems late at night when there is little passenger travel.

We can get ourselves largely free of oil. And rapidly, if we decide to do so.



Not likely to happen in this country. At least, not until things get so bad that there aren't any other choices. As Winston Churchill said: "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they’ve tried everything else."
EP012012 - Tropical Storm ALETTA


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/Loop

...click image for Loop







Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track



Drove under this storm along SR 44 approaching Samsula at about 5:30 before it became a supercell about 25-30 miles east-south-east in Oak Hill.

Statement as of 7:20 PM EDT on May 15, 2012

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 745 PM EDT for northwestern Brevard County...

At 714 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to detect a tornado. This tornado was located near Turnbull... or near Mims... moving southeast at 15 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to LaGrange... Klondike Beach... Titusville... Merritt Island wildlife Refuge and Playalinda Beach
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think it's just about a certainty that Aletta has peaked at this point... She probably only has 36 hours or so of existence left

Agreed!
Quoting Chicklit:


Drove under this storm along SR 44 approaching Samsula at about 5:30 before it became a supercell about 25-30 miles east-south-east in Oak Hill.

Statement as of 7:20 PM EDT on May 15, 2012

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 745 PM EDT for northwestern Brevard County...

At 714 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to detect a tornado. This tornado was located near Turnbull... or near Mims... moving southeast at 15 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to LaGrange... Klondike Beach... Titusville... Merritt Island wildlife Refuge and Playalinda Beach
weather is turning bad on the east coast..pay attention to your local warnings folks
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ147-160030-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT.

AT 742 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM KLONDIKE
BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER....MERRITT ISLAND...PORT CANAVERAL...
CAPE CANAVERAL...

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2836 8060 2836 8062 2840 8063
2840 8065 2837 8066 2837 8072 2839 8073
2839 8074 2855 8093 2858 8094 2860 8086
2873 8074 2868 8067 2871 8070 2876 8071
2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 318DEG 15KT 2871 8061 2862 8070
2853 8079 2854 8089

$$
The 18Z GFS doesn't dissipate Aletta until nearly 120 hours from now.
gee the east coast is having ALL the fun tonight......SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

GAZ135-136-160030-
APPLING-WAYNE-
747 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE AND APPLING COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 747 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTH OF BAXLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
BAXLEY...SURRENCY AND ODUM THROUGH 830 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3191 8222 3191 8213 3189 8212 3190 8211
3185 8208 3182 8201 3179 8199 3179 8196
3176 8194 3175 8190 3150 8220 3156 8225
3158 8230 3175 8251 3194 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 237DEG 23KT 3171 8232

$$

STRUBLE
hey all chrome 19 is out and its vary fast
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS doesn't dissipate Aletta until nearly 120 hours from now.

It's possible the remant low could hang around awhile but I don't see Aletta as a named storm beyond two days from now, probably less than that... We'll have to see what the NHC says at the next advisory
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Chernobyl had little to do with Glasnost. By the time Chernobyl happened the Soviet Union was already crumbling under the immense strain of trying to keep up with the US militarily. The writing was already on the wall at that point. The overall cost of Chernobyl was barely a drop in the bucket when compared against their military spending.




I didn't mean a direct casual relationship, but more that the disaster pushed the already strained economy closer to failure and helped set up the conditions needed for Glasnost to succeed.


You are totally correct that 40 years of Cold War had ruined the Soviet economy, and the added cost of Chernobyl certainly didn't help.

I often wonder, what would we have accomplished by now if both sides of the Cold War had spent trillions on researching AGW and alternative energy...Link
AloSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ072-172-160045-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL
753 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
PLANTATION...
DANIA BEACH...
LAUDERHILL...
FORT LAUDERDALE...
OAKLAND PARK...
LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...UP TO
NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE
ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2621 8009 2617 8009 2615 8010 2613 8009
2613 8010 2607 8010 2603 8015 2608 8032
2628 8020 2622 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 217DEG 9KT 2609 8020

$$

MJBt of warnings out up and down the east coast of florida,stay safe over there folks..heed your local warnings.........
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reprocess them since they are still contain a good chunk of their fuel. Seriously, without reprocessing you end up greatly increasing your wastes while simultaneously throwing out a huge amount of power you could be generating. This is why France can be over 70% nuclear while having a much much smaller waste problem. They reprocess spent fuel rods multiple times to extract as much power as they can, and in the end have a much smaller amount of waste to handle.

Better yet, if we could start implementing some more modern and/or thorium based designs we'd eliminate melt-down risks entirely as well as have a more efficient fuels cycle (plus there is enough thorium to last thousands of years).

But that won't happen in this country.


How are spent fuel rods reprocessed?
Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fuel

Mixed oxide (MOX) fuel provides about 2% of the new nuclear fuel used today.
MOX fuel is manufactured from plutonium recovered from used reactor fuel.
MOX fuel also provides a means of burning weapons-grade plutonium (from military sources) to produce electricity.
In every nuclear reactor there is both fission of isotopes such as uranium-235, and the formation of new, heavier isotopes due to neutron capture, primarily by U-238. Most of the fuel mass in a reactor is U-238. This can become plutonium-239 and by successive neutron capture Pu-240, Pu-241 and Pu-242 as well as other transuranic isotopes (see page on Plutonium). Pu-239 and Pu-241 are fissile, like U-235. (Very small quantities of Pu-236 and Pu-238 are formed similarly from U-235.)

Normally, with the fuel being changed every three years or so, about half of the Pu-239 is 'burned' in the reactor, providing about one third of the total energy. It behaves like U-235 and its fission releases a similar amount of energy. The higher the burn-up, the less fissile plutonium remains in the used fuel. Typically about one percent of the used fuel discharged from a reactor is plutonium, and some two thirds of this is fissile (c. 50% Pu-239, 15% Pu-241). Worldwide, some 70 tonnes of plutonium contained in used fuel is removed when refuelling reactors each year.

The plutonium (and uranium) in used fuel can be recovered through reprocessing. The plutonium could then be used in the manufacture mixed oxide (MOX) nuclear fuel, to provide energy through electricity generation. A single recycle of plutonium in the form of MOX fuel increases the energy derived from the original uranium by some 12%, and if the uranium is also recycled this becomes about 22% (based on light water reactor fuel with burn-up of 45 GWd/tU).
MOX use

MOX fuel was first used in a thermal reactor in 1963, but did not come into commercial use until the 1980s. So far about 2000 tonnes of MOX fuel has been fabricated and loaded into power reactors. In 2006 about 180 tonnes of MOX fuel was loaded into over 30 reactors (mostly PWR) in Europe.

Today MOX is widely used in Europe and in Japan. Currently about 40 reactors in Europe (Belgium, Switzerland, Germany and France) are licensed to use MOX, and over 30 are doing so. In Japan about ten reactors are licensed to use it and several do so. These reactors generally use MOX fuel as about one third of their core, but some will accept up to 50% MOX assemblies. France aims to have all its 900 MWe series of reactors running with at least one third MOX. Japan also plans to use MOX in one third of its reactors in the near future and expects to start up a 1383 MWe (gross) reactor with a complete fuel loading of MOX at the Ohma plant in late 2014.2 Other advanced light water reactors such as the EPR or AP1000 will be able to accept complete fuel loadings of MOX if required.

The use of up to 50% of MOX does not change the operating characteristics of a reactor, though the plant must be designed or adapted slightly to take it. More control rods are needed. For more than 50% MOX loading, significant changes are necessary and a reactor needs to be designed accordingly.

An advantage of MOX is that the fissile concentration of the fuel can be increased easily by adding a bit more plutonium, whereas enriching uranium to higher levels of U-235 is relatively expensive. As reactor operators seek to burn fuel harder and longer, increasing burnup from around 30,000 MW days per tonne a few years ago to over 50,000 MWd/t now, MOX use becomes more attractive.

Reprocessing to separate plutonium for recycle as MOX becomes more economic as uranium prices rise. MOX use also becomes more attractive as the need to reduce the volume of spent fuel increase. Seven UO2 fuel assemblies give rise to one MOX assembly plus some vitrified high-level waste, resulting in only about 35% of the volume, mass and cost of disposal.

Recycling normal used fuel

If used fuel is to be recycled, the first step is separating the plutonium and the remaining uranium (about 96% of the spent fuel) from the fission products with other wastes (together about 3%). The plutonium then needs to be separated from most or all of the uranium. All this is undertaken at a reprocessing plant (see information page on Processing of Used Nuclear Fuel).

The plutonium, as an oxide, is then mixed with depleted uranium left over from an enrichment plant to form fresh mixed oxide fuel (MOX, which is UO2+PuO2). MOX fuel, consisting of about 7-10% plutonium mixed with depleted uranium, is equivalent to uranium oxide fuel enriched to about 4.5% U-235, assuming that the plutonium has about two thirds fissile isotopes. If weapons plutonium is used (>90% Pu-239), only about 5% plutonium is needed in the mix. The plutonium content of commercial MOX fuel varies up to 10.8% depending on the design of the fuel, and averages about 9.5%. Fuel in an EPR with 30% MOX having less than 10.8% Pu is equivalent to 4.2% enriched uranium fuel. An EPR with 100% MOX fuel can use a wider variety of used fuel material (burnup, initial enrichment, Pu quality) than with only 30% MOX.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TXC209-453-160100-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0062.120515T2329Z-120516T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HAYS-TRAVIS-
629 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN...
CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 629 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DETECT MINOR FLOODING ON ONION CREEK. THE ONION
CREEK CROSSING OF FM 150 HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE
ROAD. AT 6 PM THE GAGE READING FROM ONION CREEK NEAR DRIFTWOOD
WAS 7.31 FEET...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 7 FEET. THIS RISE IS BEING
REFLECTED DOWNSTREAM WITH THE BUDA GAGE SEEING A RISE TO 4.1
FEET...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5 FEET. DRIVERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION NEAR ONION CREEK CROSSINGS ON FM 150 AND FM 12 NEAR
DRIFTWOOD...FM 967 AND COUNTY ROAD 236 NEAR BUDA...AND TWIN CREEK
ROAD AND OLD SAN ANTONIO ROAD NEAR THE CITY OF ONION CREEK FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
BUDA...DRIFTWOOD AND ONION CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9777 3014 9773 3006 9782 3003 9794
3008 9803 3013 9809 3018 9807 3014 9800
3009 9793 3014 9783

$$
Good Night everyone...................
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-TUESDAY)
THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE HAS BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IN TURN
KEEPS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...WHICH IN TURN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL
ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR THE
WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH.

BECAUSE OF THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL RUNS AND THE
CONSISTENT RUNS WITH THE ECMWF MODEL ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF
MODEL RUNS FOR THE WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POPS
THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY.

Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all chrome 19 is out and its vary fast
Quoting Tazmanian:


I find that Firefox works best with the blog and the NOAA sites, but when I'm not doing weather stuff I use Chrome. Although I bet we all can agree that IE sucks.
Update
(click to enlarge)
00Z update is out, no change:

EP, 01, 2012051600, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1106W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 60,
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I understand you completely. But I still think this argument alone does not undermine Nuclear Power. Wind farms are not efficient enough power source. Solar power is also no where near as effective YET for mass use.


Sorry, but both of those statements are incorrect.

Wind farms are efficient enough to produce electricity for about $0.06/kWh electricity. Without subsidies. And that price is expected to fall.

Solar is efficient enough to produce electricity for about $0.15/kWh in sunny areas and that cost should drop below ten cents in the next few years. Solar is already far cheaper than natural gas peaking plants.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Not likely to happen in this country. At least, not until things get so bad that there aren't any other choices. As Winston Churchill said: "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they’ve tried everything else."


You think not?

We're installing wind and solar at a pretty good clip.

There's a lot of new battery technology emerging from the labs that promises to increase EV battery range.

Once people can buy an EV for only a few thousand dollars more than a gasmobile, an EV which they can drive all day long with only a couple of short stops for a recharge I expect the market will quickly shift.

EVs are just so cheap to drive that people will change what they want to drive.

The Churchill quote is cute, but if you look around we Americans change our technology pretty quickly when offered a better option.
Quoting LargoFl:
weather is turning bad on the east coast..pay attention to your local warnings folks


We're finally getting some much needed, lovely rain.
Link Melbourne Fl radar
San Antonio airport has gotten 9.84 inches of much needed rain this month.
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
San Antonio airport has gotten 9.84 inches of much needed rain this month.

I heard it was their 5th wettest May on record.

Much needed rain for sure.


We'll try again with the strong thunderstorm. First one died and now another has formed to the west ad is moving in. I really hope it makes it!
Later all
Aletta has beautiful outflow in its western quadrant, but it is being affected by some easterly wind shear which is limiting the amount of outflow on the other side. Judging by satellite imagery, the cyclone has probably reached its peak intensity at 45 mph/1003 millibars and should remain steady in intensity through at least tomorrow morning. After that, wind shear should increase slowly but dramatically as a powerful upper-level trough begins to impact the system. This, in combination with a very dry air mass to its west, should act to gradually weaken Aletta below tropical storm status during the day on Thursday. A slight turn towards the north is possible at this time as well as the intense mid-level ridge to its north begins to erode.

Want to correct a post I made yesterday regarding Arnie Gundersen. I updated my post on the previous blog. It now reads:

I think I am wronnnng about Gundersen. I am confusing Arnie Gundersen with someone else, but no one corrected me. That just proves the need to be very careful about posting about Fukushima on this blog which is the point I am trying to make. I hope to find better forums that we can direct people to.

305. wxmod
Jet trails during a heat wave. Quickly drying farms. Washington today. MODIS Satellite photo.


Quoting BobWallace:


Sorry, but both of those statements are incorrect.

Wind farms are efficient enough to produce electricity for about $0.06/kWh electricity. Without subsidies. And that price is expected to fall.

Solar is efficient enough to produce electricity for about $0.15/kWh in sunny areas and that cost should drop below ten cents in the next few years. Solar is already far cheaper than natural gas peaking plants.


Wow!! That's quite an improvement for Wind and Solar.
Where did you get that info?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We'll try again with the strong thunderstorm.


you in northern prince william?
Upper level low developing in the western gulf, and deep moisture will hang around longer than initially anticipated...

You know we are transitioning to the wet season when you start seeing the moisture stubbornly hanging tough when it was supposed to dry out. Instead of drier air arriving the next couple days like was forecast just yesterday, it looks like even higher moisture will be moving along with cooler air aloft from the developing upper low currently in the western gulf/Texas. While this will likely mean strong and occasionally severe thunderstorms in the eastern 2/3 of Florida, I'm not sure how much rain the parched west side of Florida will get.


However! While there hasn't been any morning coastal shower and thunderstorm activity the past few days, that is because the surface front stalled farther west than expected, while that may seem bad for us on the west coast for now, in the long run that is allowing deeper moisture to remain over the state. Furthermore, here on the west coast we might just get into the action as upper divergence and cooler air aloft moves in from the upper low, the upper divergence should induce lift in the eastern gulf that has been lacking in order to get shower and thunderstorm activity near the coastal areas.

Quoting BobWallace:


Sorry, but both of those statements are incorrect.

Wind farms are efficient enough to produce electricity for about $0.06/kWh electricity. Without subsidies. And that price is expected to fall.

Solar is efficient enough to produce electricity for about $0.15/kWh in sunny areas and that cost should drop below ten cents in the next few years. Solar is already far cheaper than natural gas peaking plants.
Require huge amounts of land.
Edit: Nuke power only cost $0.02/kWh. that is 66% percent less then windfarms. Plus the amount of land used is much less. Not to mention the accident rate for nuclear plants is much less. In the last 40 years of US nuke power not a single person has died. While with wind power... 41 Worker Fatalities, 16 Public- Includes falling from turbine towers and transporting turbines on the highway.
39 Incidents of Blade Failure- Failed blades have been known to travel over a quarter mile, killing any unfortunate bystanders within its path of destruction.
110 Incidents of Fire- When a wind turbine fire occurs, local fire departments can do little but watch due to the 30-story height of these turbine units. The falling debris are then carried across the distance and cause new fires.
60 Incidents of Structural Failure- As turbines become more prevalent, these breakages will become more common in public areas, thereby causing more deaths and dismemberment's from falling debris.
24 incidents of "hurling ice"- Ice forms on these giant blades and is reportedly hurled at deathly speeds in all directions. Author reports that some 880 ice incidents of this nature have occurred over Germany's 13-years of harnessing wind power.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you in northern prince william?


Central Fairfax. It's dying though so only a little rain for me.
Hey guys I just want to say I think that we will have a storm in the caribbean maybe not a strong one but atleast a storm and as time goes by I can see it happening more and more as conditions are getting better and better and now we have some convection in the caribbean to work with
its just a matter of waiting as time goes by


Link
313. wxmod
http://rt.com/news/humans-destroy-earth-report-28 0/

From RT News:

All-consumin’ humans use 50% more than planet can offer – report

Published: 15 May, 2012, 17:23


We ask for more than what we have: humans are currently using the equivalent of one-and-a-half Earths to support our activities. Since 1970, humanity has destroyed almost one third of Earth’s biodiversity, says the World Wildlife Fund.
These are the key findings of the Living Planet Report 2012, which has just been released in Geneva.
The report is a biannual analysis on the health of our planet and the impact of human activity. It gives a detailed study on the physical conditions of our planet, demands on our planet and the solutions for our planet.
The demand section measures how much land and water people need to produce the resources they consume (such as food and timber), provide land for infrastructure, and absorb the carbon dioxide they generate. These figures are then compared to the planet’s biocapacity, which means nature's ability to meet this demand.
In 2007 alone, humanity’s ecological Footprint – an indicator of human pressure on nature – exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity by a startling 50 per cent. The report goes on to explain that an overshoot of 50 per cent means it would take 1.5 years for the Earth to regenerate the renewable resources that people used in 2007 and absorb CO2 (carbon dioxide) waste.
It all started during the 1970s, when humanity as a whole began using more than the Earth could give. We passed the point at which the annual Ecological Footprint matched the Earth’s annual biocapacity and have continued to do so since then.
­
And the Footprint per capita champion is…
Evidently not all countries are equal in terms of consumption. The footprint of high-income countries is three times that of middle-income countries, and five times that of low-income countries.
The US has the fifth-highest ecological footprint per capita. In fact, if the entire world lived like Americans, the report claims, more than four Earths-worth of resources and carbon absorption would be needed to meet demands. The four countries with larger ecological footprints are Qatar – the surprising first place – Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Denmark.
One third of Earth’s biodiversity already gone
Since 1970, humanity has destroyed some 30 per cent of Earth’s biodiversity. It means that on average, species (other than human) population sizes dropped by one third between 1970 and 2008. It is measured by The Living Planet Index, tracking average changes in animal populations from around the world.
It indicates freshwater species saw 35 per cent loss, marine species 25 per cent, and terrestrial a 24 per cent fall.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Aletta has beautiful outflow in its western quadrant, but it is being affected by some easterly wind shear which is limiting the amount of outflow on the other side. Judging by satellite imagery, the cyclone has probably reached its peak intensity at 45 mph/1003 millibars and should remain steady in intensity through at least tomorrow morning. After that, wind shear should increase slowly but dramatically as a powerful upper-level trough begins to impact the system. This, in combination with a very dry air mass to its west, should act to gradually weaken Aletta below tropical storm status during the day on Thursday. A slight turn towards the north is possible at this time as well as the intense mid-level ridge to its north begins to erode.

I think it would be dead by Thursday morning.
Since 1970, humanity has destroyed almost one third of Earth%u2019s biodiversity? How is this even calculated? There are thousands if not millions of species we have yet to discover (I say this because only 5% of the ocean has been explored). I am not sure if I can give to much credit to these claims. Still I do not want to detract from the fact that humans are destroying the planet bit by bit and it needs to be stopped. This claim seems a little far fetched to me though.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Upper level low developing in the western gulf, and deep moisture will hang around longer than initially anticipated...

You know we are transitioning to the wet season when you start seeing the moisture stubbornly hanging tough when it was supposed to dry out. Instead of drier air arriving the next couple days like was forecast just yesterday, it looks like even higher moisture will be moving along with cooler air aloft from the developing upper low currently in the western gulf/Texas. While this will likely mean strong and occasionally severe thunderstorms in the eastern 2/3 of Florida, I'm not sure how much rain the parched west side of Florida will get.


However! While there hasn't been any morning coastal shower and thunderstorm activity the past few days, that is because the surface front stalled farther west than expected, while that may seem bad for us on the west coast for now, in the long run that is allowing deeper moisture to remain over the state. Furthermore, here on the west coast we might just get into the action as upper divergence and cooler air aloft moves in from the upper low, the upper divergence should induce lift in the eastern gulf that has been lacking in order to get shower and thunderstorm activity near the coastal areas.



Nicely said. I think showers for SW florida Thurs. A.M. for sure.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Central Fairfax. It's dying though so only a little rain for me.


Near Oakton?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Near Oakton?


Small world, I lived in Herndon/Oak Hill for a while ten years ago, as I mentioned on here earlier today.

Not much rain here in Maitland today (~0.1"), while KORL only picked up 0.02".
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I just want to say I think that we will have a storm in the caribbean maybe not a strong one but atleast a storm and as time goes by I can see it happening more and more as conditions are getting better and better and now we have some convection in the caribbean to work with
its just a matter of waiting as time goes by


Link


Looking more like we will get some much needed rain, a TS/TD I'm not sure, but rain is welcome, even though we had a wet April, we need more!
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looking more like we will get some much needed rain, a TS/TD I'm not sure, but rain is welcome, even though we had a wet April, we need more!


Crabs all over Cayman Brac today. Hopefully not a sign of things to come LOL
Quoting Abacosurf:


Nicely said. I think showers for SW florida Thurs. A.M. for sure.


Like I said, I'm not buying it myself till I see it, but it looks good the next few days, I think Thursday and Friday look good, regardless of some models shifting the front through area on Friday, that seems a bit shady right now as just other day the models were bringing the front through with dry air by tomorrow. you gotta watch for trends, and for a while now we have been in a situation where everything trends drier as the days approaches, currently as the week passes its looking more and more like finally that a wet pattern is returning to Florida instead of the drying trends the past several weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the front never even clears through, whether or not it is the transition to the wet season or not is hard to say. Because the wet season is pretty much a long term wet pattern for many weeks, obviously some days and weeks wetter than others. But you get my point, we will have to see a generally wetter pattern for at least a couple weeks before we can say its the wet season. It actually can and does start in May sometimes. Its just that May can be super dry also depending on the year, so the overall average month of May is only around 3 to 4 inches even though some years it can be quite a bit higher, unless you live in South Florida, especially the East Coast, the rain season starts down there earlier. Yearly rainfall is also 60 to 65 inches unlike 50 to 55 up here. But I've lived for a while and I'd say about half the years living here the rain season comes in anywhere from Mid to late May, while the other half May was super dry then it started raining a lot in June.
Drop to your knees at the sight of the chart.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Near Oakton?


Yeah, I go to high school there.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Since 1970, humanity has destroyed almost one third of Earth%u2019s biodiversity? How is this even calculated? There are thousands if not millions of species we have yet to discover (I say this because only 5% of the ocean has been explored). I am not sure if I can give to much credit to these claims. Still I do not want to detract from the fact that humans are destroying the planet bit by bit and it needs to be stopped. This claim seems a little far fetched to me though.


Living Planet Report
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Drop to your knees at the sight of the chart.

It is ubiquitous and omnipotent.
Quoting wxmod:
http://rt.com/news/humans-destroy-earth-report-28 0/

From RT News:

All-consumin’ humans use 50% more than planet can offer – report

Published: 15 May, 2012, 17:23


We ask for more than what we have: humans are currently using the equivalent of one-and-a-half Earths to support our activities. Since 1970, humanity has destroyed almost one third of Earth’s biodiversity, says the World Wildlife Fund.
These are the key findings of the Living Planet Report 2012, which has just been released in Geneva.
The report is a biannual analysis on the health of our planet and the impact of human activity. It gives a detailed study on the physical conditions of our planet, demands on our planet and the solutions for our planet.
The demand section measures how much land and water people need to produce the resources they consume (such as food and timber), provide land for infrastructure, and absorb the carbon dioxide they generate. These figures are then compared to the planet’s biocapacity, which means nature's ability to meet this demand.
In 2007 alone, humanity’s ecological Footprint – an indicator of human pressure on nature – exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity by a startling 50 per cent. The report goes on to explain that an overshoot of 50 per cent means it would take 1.5 years for the Earth to regenerate the renewable resources that people used in 2007 and absorb CO2 (carbon dioxide) waste.
It all started during the 1970s, when humanity as a whole began using more than the Earth could give. We passed the point at which the annual Ecological Footprint matched the Earth’s annual biocapacity and have continued to do so since then.
­
And the Footprint per capita champion is…
Evidently not all countries are equal in terms of consumption. The footprint of high-income countries is three times that of middle-income countries, and five times that of low-income countries.
The US has the fifth-highest ecological footprint per capita. In fact, if the entire world lived like Americans, the report claims, more than four Earths-worth of resources and carbon absorption would be needed to meet demands. The four countries with larger ecological footprints are Qatar – the surprising first place – Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Denmark.
One third of Earth’s biodiversity already gone
Since 1970, humanity has destroyed some 30 per cent of Earth’s biodiversity. It means that on average, species (other than human) population sizes dropped by one third between 1970 and 2008. It is measured by The Living Planet Index, tracking average changes in animal populations from around the world.
It indicates freshwater species saw 35 per cent loss, marine species 25 per cent, and terrestrial a 24 per cent fall.


sobering
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like this was suppose to the the first in a series of billboards leading up tot he The 7th International Conference on Climate Change that Heartland has been hosting. Top of the speaker list..Joe Bastardi..The Co-chief Forecaster at Weatherbell Analytics, with Joe D. Aleo, and new acquisition Dr. Ryan Maue..
Maue is with JB now? That's too bad, hope he keeps up his website though.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Tropical waves can still ride the ITCZ, but distinguishing them from ordinary perturbations within the near-equatorial trough (ITCZ) can be rather tricky. A south to north wind shift (not necessarily uniform or consistent in structure, since these entities are not well-organized in the low-level cloud field) is typically noted in the lower troposphere in association with easterly waves because of their counterclockwise vorticity signature. Another way to identify them is by their upward vertical circulations; generally speaking, the vertical circulation associated with tropical waves extend upward to around 500 hPa. This differentiates them from the majority of oceanic disturbances, which typically have negligible cyclonic rotation in the middle troposphere.

Lastly, it's important to remember that not all tropical waves share the same characteristics; there exist both positively and negatively-tilted waves. The former have east-to-west circulations, while the latter house west-to-east vorticity signatures. Also, in positively-tilted waves, fair weather precedes the trough/wave axis, while instability/active weather follows it (east side). The opposite is true in negatively-tilted waves.
Hm, why's that?

(edited)
Over the ocean the back side of the axis is usually the stormier side, regardless of the troughs tilt. This is because there is greater surface convergence on this side and upper level winds also tend to push convection to this side. Meanwhile, over Africa, greatest convection tends to be found ahead of the trough axis as the AEJ pushes the convection ahead of the wave.
329. xcool


wind shear..
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The US also provides their product free to the Weather Channels, Accuweathers and Wundergrouds of the world while ECMWF and UKMET charge for use of their products. This will not be getting any better with further budget cuts.

The GFS is scheduled for EnKF this June, and resolution increase about a year from now, but we will be in a catch-up mode for a long, long time.
Where did you hear about a resolution update?

Quoting ScottLincoln:




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but you have to pay the $120 upgrade. I would just upgrade to GRlevel3 v.2 which is expected to be released around May 21...it will contain the simple dual-pol stuff and only costs $40 to upgrade from the current GRlevel3.
Resolution will probably be reduced. I prefer the raw data. Considering the amount of effort that Mike Gibson has to put into his software, $120 is cheap by comparison.

Where do you get the raw data? Is that still through GRlevel2/3?
Quoting presslord:


sobering
Absolutely...I would like to post my thoughts about people who trash our Earth and poison our people, but I cant.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Putting ellipsis in your own graphics? Someone has been reading too many NWS discussions

Quoting Levi32:



2.) I won't tolerate a Lord of the Rings hater. Nothing more epic has ever been written and then filmed.
Best post
Quoting WxGeekVA:

Funniest picture


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dude, that was from like two weeks ago.

God I know, just finished reading back a whole months worth. my eyes are on fire
Quoting kmanislander:


Crabs all over Cayman Brac today. Hopefully not a sign of things to come LOL


Our crabs are out in the Fl Keys as well. Humidity is suddenly way up. Summer is here. Thankfully the world will end in a few months (Dec 2012) Winds are SE 5 kts this eve.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hm, why's that?

For a tropical wave, or inverted trough, the trough axis would look like this \ for positive tilt, while negative tilt would be like this /. Reason I'd assume this is they are inverted and travel in the opposite direction of an extratropical trough. As far as the stormy side, over the ocean the back side of the axis is usually the stormier side, regardless of the troughs tilt. This is because there is greater surface convergence on this side and upper level winds also tend to push convection to this side. Meanwhile, over Africa, greatest convection tends to be found ahead of the trough axis as the AEJ pushes the convection ahead of the wave.


It's the opposite. Negative tilt looks like this \

Positive tilt looks like this /

A negatively-tilted tropical wave can have the region of greatest low-level convergence to the west of the upper portion of the wave axis, instead of east of it like for most typical tropical waves.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Since 1970, humanity has destroyed almost one third of Earth%u2019s biodiversity? How is this even calculated? There are thousands if not millions of species we have yet to discover (I say this because only 5% of the ocean has been explored). I am not sure if I can give to much credit to these claims. Still I do not want to detract from the fact that humans are destroying the planet bit by bit and it needs to be stopped. This claim seems a little far fetched to me though.


Quoting TomTaylor:



Putting ellipsis in your own graphics? Someone has been reading too many NWS discussions

Best post

Funniest picture



God I know, just finished reading back a whole months worth. my eyes are on fire


Hahaha burning eyes, good one! and welcome back!
Quoting Levi32:


It's the opposite. Negative tilt looks like this \

Positive tilt looks like this /

A negatively-tilted tropical wave can have the region of greatest low-level convergence to the west of the upper portion of the wave axis, instead of east of it like for most typical tropical waves.
I figured it would switch since tropical waves are inverted troughs though.

And yeah that's true too. Convection is usually over the eastern side once a wave is over the sea though.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I figured it would switch since tropical waves are inverted troughs though.

And yeah that's true too. Convection is usually over the eastern side once a wave is over the sea though.


It "switches" twice from mid-latitude troughs since not only are tropical waves inverted troughs, but they travel from east to west instead of west to east.
Quoting TomTaylor:


Where do you get the raw data? Is that still through GRlevel2/3?

You get Level2 data here. I believe that GRlevel3 gets it automatically from somewhere. The upgrade is for GRlevel3 if I understood what you were asking correctly.
Quoting Levi32:


It "switches" twice from mid-latitude troughs since not only are tropical waves inverted troughs, but they travel from east to west instead of west to east.
Yep you're right, the wind flow around them is the same, should have thought that one out first.
I found an "S". Kind of looks like TS Alex from 2010.

Quoting hydrus:
Absolutely...I would like to post my thoughts about people who trash our Earth and poison our people, but I cant.


Post them on your own WU blog. It is only on Dr Masters's blog that such things are off topic.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Hahaha burning eyes, good one! and welcome back!
Thanks, I enjoyed all those memes you posted and that cat gif was cool too haha
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You get Level2 data here. I believe that GRlevel3 gets it automatically from somewhere. The upgrade is for GRlevel3 if I understood what you were asking correctly.
Oh, never mind. I was hoping he got the raw data from somewhere free
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I found an "S". Kind of looks like TS Alex from 2010.


right I think that is the monsoon trough
Quoting PedleyCA:


Living Planet Report
Just read the report. The estimate of biodiversity they gave is off there own system. The way the article posted the info made it sound like a stone cold fact and is old news. Since 1970, humanity has destroyed some 30 per cent of Earth’s biodiversity. It is estimated based on general population of species. Bio diversity is "The variety of life in the world or in a particular habitat or ecosystem" The amount of biodiversity left is not so much the numbers but its existence and if it still is located in the ecosystem. Not to detract from the message of the report but 30% is an exaggerated number based on this system. Still the system does seem to be a good indicator of how bio diversity is trending. But I think statements like the above, is an alarmist statement. I agree with the general findings of the report and its main point in general but like I said it is not even close to a completely correct statistical survey (Needs much larger sample size than what is available at the time.) IMO to give out such statements. Until a much larger sampling of discovered species and populations can tracked and accounted for such statements seem unnecessary for what should be a research publication. It just seems like this research is trying to press an idea more than just listing an organized list of facts to me. That is all I really find wrong with it. If they just said observable biodiversity and defined what they meant by observable I would not have any problem with it in the first place (Because then they would be correct).
not TS alex reminder
From 8 PM PDT discussion.

THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE
CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM
Quoting Levi32:


It "switches" twice from mid-latitude troughs since not only are tropical waves inverted troughs, but they travel from east to west instead of west to east.

Have we seen our first tropical wave yet? There was two features that appeared to be waves on the 5th and 10th
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I found an "S". Kind of looks like TS Alex from 2010.



I remember the GFS predicting this like 2 weeks out with dual storms in the EPAC....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The main thing I like about that video is the know indisputable fact of decreased bio diversity in agriculture plants. This is directly cause by humans with bio engineered crops and selective breeding. I just like things to be observed with a huge sample size before claiming it as cold hard facts.
Quoting pcola57:


Wow!! That's quite an improvement for Wind and Solar.
Where did you get that info?


Wind prices - NREL. Levelized cost of electricity = ~$40/MWh. That's about $0.04/kWh but includes the $0.02 production tax credit (PTC) which brings the cost to about $0.06/kWh.

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/02/09/wind-levelize d-cost-of-electricity-lcoe-at-all-time-low/


Solar prices - SolarBuzz is a good source. They track prices and update monthly. Their 'Residential Installed System' prices are a bit high because they include battery backup, which most grid connected people would not install.

Large rooftop installation in sunbelt areas = $0.1515/kWh.

http://www.solarbuzz.com/facts-and-figures/retail -price-environment/solar-electricity-prices


Anybody see any tropical waves?
Quoting BobWallace:
And, while I'm on a roll (and avoiding mowing the orchard), let's look at powering the World with 100% offshore wind...


img src="Photobucket">



Once more, no one has any intention of 100% offshore wind for our electricity.

Take a look at the three illustrations I've posted - thermal solar, PV solar and offshore wind. Take a bit here, a bit there, add in hydro, geothermal, tidal, biomass, biogas, and wave. We can spread our generation out, keep it reasonably close to where it will get used, and use what is most available in each region.

We can power ourselves with systems which use no fuel, with energy sources which will not run out for hundreds of millions/billions of years.



The biggest issue I see here is transmission losses. All these super cool, awesome, fantastic, wonderful, terrific ways of generating electricity, seem to be some distance away from the center of any continent. Texas struggles with transmission losses constantly with wind power in western and northern parts of the state. The majority of the population falls in the Texas Triangle (Dallas, San Antonio, Houston). Solar on a large scale basis is spotty in reliability and not nearly as advanced as suggested. Hydro is fantastic but where else do we put turbines in the water at? Major rivers with substantial flows and lakes with appropriate elevation relief have been explored and taken in the US. Not to mention, impeding any body of water has it's own set of environmental complications.

We're just not there yet fella. Certain parts of our country are growing at far too rapid a pace to phase out reliable fossil generation. I'd give it 20 to 25 years before we see new renewable generational technology becoming dominant over fossil fuels. It's inevitable that we'll get there. It will take time to get it right before full conversion begins.

This is not meant to start a verbal battle between renewable and non-renewable, right wing and left wing, or good and bad. Working in the energy production/distribution field provides me with a little insight I'm afraid. I'm just simply stating my opinion on where we're REALLY at. We'll get there someday.

I can't wait to hear your remarks.
Quoting BobWallace:


Wind prices - NREL. Levelized cost of electricity = ~$40/MWh. That's about $0.04/kWh but includes the $0.02 production tax c redit (PTC) which brings the cost to about $0.06/kWh.

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/02/09/wind-levelize d-cost-of-electricity-lcoe-at-all-time-low/


Solar prices - SolarBuzz is a good source. They track prices and update monthly. Their 'Residential Installed System' prices are a bit high because they include battery backup, which most grid connected people would not install.

Large rooftop installation in sunbelt areas = $0.1515/kWh.

http://www.solarbuzz.com/facts-and-figures/retail -price-environment/solar-electricity-prices
Well thats a large problem right there. LinkCost of nuke energy compared. Also have to remember that a US house holds use a ton of power and so houses need a decent amounts of panels to keep 100% coverage of energy needs. Nuke energy covers it all rain or shine and is very dependable. Also I am privileged to live in the state where the US has resumed construction of nuclear facilities. Will be interesting to see how it works out with the latest and greatest of nuclear power. Some what related and funny it turns out Kodak had a small nuke reactor with 2.5 pounds of weapons grade uranium. In NYC. Apparently almost no one knew about it lol. Link
Quoting BobWallace:


Wind prices - NREL. Levelized cost of electricity = ~$40/MWh. That's about $0.04/kWh but includes the $0.02 production tax credit (PTC) which brings the cost to about $0.06/kWh.

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/02/09/wind-levelize d-cost-of-electricity-lcoe-at-all-time-low/


Solar prices - SolarBuzz is a good source. They track prices and update monthly. Their 'Residential Installed System' prices are a bit high because they include battery backup, which most grid connected people would not install.

Large rooftop installation in sunbelt areas = $0.1515/kWh.

http://www.solarbuzz.com/facts-and-figures/retail -price-environment/solar-electricity-prices

Thanks for that Bob,
I appreciate the links too.I need to be more in touch with that knowledge base so I can make an informed decision when I can afford to buy.
Thanks again

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Require huge amounts of land.
Edit: Nuke power only cost $0.02/kWh. that is 66% percent less then windfarms. Plus the amount of land used is much less. Not to mention the accident rate for nuclear plants is much less. In the last 40 years of US nuke power not a single person has died. While with wind power... 41 Worker Fatalities, 16 Public- Includes falling from turbine towers and transporting turbines on the highway.
39 Incidents of Blade Failure- Failed blades have been known to travel over a quarter mile, killing any unfortunate bystanders within its path of destruction.
110 Incidents of Fire- When a wind turbine fire occurs, local fire departments can do little but watch due to the 30-story height of these turbine units. The falling debris are then carried across the distance and cause new fires.
60 Incidents of Structural Failure- As turbines become more prevalent, these breakages will become more common in public areas, thereby causing more deaths and dismemberment's from falling debris.
24 incidents of "hurling ice"- Ice forms on these giant blades and is reportedly hurled at deathly speeds in all directions. Author reports that some 880 ice incidents of this nature have occurred over Germany's 13-years of harnessing wind power.


Let me see if I have the energy to get to the bottom.... ;o)

The amount of land required to produce all our electricity with a combination of renewable sources is small. I showed you that above in three separate posts.

Two cents is the price of electricity from plants built and paid off many years ago. Current estimates of electricity from new nuclear plants run from $0.15/kWh to over $0.25/kWh. And those prices do not include government subsidies which make the actual price higher.

41 wind fatalities include truck accidents while delivering supplies to the site. A hang glider flying into a rig. A crane operator who failed to lower his boom and drove into an electric wire. A guy who snuck onto the wind farm and committed suicide.

We don't have construction death or operational death data for nuclear reactors. People do die in nuclear plants but the industry ignores those deaths because they weren't caused by radiation.

Please furnish documentation for flying blade deaths.

The last number (IIRC) I saw was that there are around 700,000 wind turbines currently in the world.

110 fires/700,000 = 0.02%.

There are 436 operating nuclear reactors in the world. Perhaps a total of 1,000 have been built?

3 significant meltdowns/1,000 = 0.3%

Which would you rather deal with, a turbine fire or a 15x more likely Chernobyl/Three Mile Island/Fukushima?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah, I go to high school there.


My roomate in college went there for highschool, small world...
Quoting BobWallace:


Let me see if I have the energy to get to the bottom.... ;o)

The amount of land required to produce all our electricity with a combination of renewable sources is small. I showed you that above in three separate posts.

Two cents is the price of electricity from plants built and paid off many years ago. Current estimates of electricity from new nuclear plants run from $0.15/kWh to over $0.25/kWh. And those prices do not include government subsidies which make the actual price higher.

41 wind fatalities include truck accidents while delivering supplies to the site. A hang glider flying into a rig. A crane operator who failed to lower his boom and drove into an electric wire. A guy who snuck onto the wind farm and committed suicide.

We don't have construction death or operational death data for nuclear reactors. People do die in nuclear plants but the industry ignores those deaths because they weren't caused by radiation.

Please furnish documentation for flying blade deaths.

The last number (IIRC) I saw was that there are around 700,000 wind turbines currently in the world.

110 fires/700,000 = 0.02%.

There are 436 operating nuclear reactors in the world. Perhaps a total of 1,000 have been built?

3 significant meltdowns/1,000 = 0.3%

Which would you rather d eal with, a turbine fire or a 15x more likely Chernobyl/Three Mile Island/Fukushima?
Was not that bad. So really lets say 2 significant accidents. I have seen wind farms. They cover a very large amount of land. To the point where I can see them for miles out of a plane at 36,000ft. Well whats the problem with using lots of land? Land prices increase every day as the human population grows. At some point there will be a need to expand. There are three ways you can expand, Up (Which would be awsome), Down (Also awsome), or widen (not so much). Most likely it will be a combination of the 3 but widening is the cheapest currently. But with that land prices will rise. Take Japan for example. High demand for little little supply. Land cost thousands of USD. That is why it is primarily powered by nuclear reactors. Same thing will happen in the US. At a slower rate? Of course but still at one point it will happen. So what is better. Planning for the far future with what we have or near? Also this chart should explain a lot with the cost.

I am not downing wind power just trying to prove that nuclear energy is a better alt. Also with the deaths I see your point. Have to admit this is quite the debate. Really enjoying it. Nice and civilized.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hm, why's that?

(edited)
Over the ocean the back side of the axis is usually the stormier side, regardless of the troughs tilt. This is because there is greater surface convergence on this side and upper level winds also tend to push convection to this side. Meanwhile, over Africa, greatest convection tends to be found ahead of the trough axis as the AEJ pushes the convection ahead of the wave.


I'm not so sure about that. Most of the time, the upper flow over the tropics is easterly, which displaces convection to the west side of the wave axis. In that case, convergence would tend to be more focused in the area of greatest shower activity.

Most tropical waves are not uniform in structure or intensity.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The main thing I like about that video is the know indisputable fact of decreased bio diversity in agriculture plants. This is directly cause by humans with bio engineered crops and selective breeding. I just like things to be observed with a huge sample size before claiming it as cold hard facts.



MESSAGE FROM MOTHER EARTH .....

WE ARE ALOT A LIKE IN MANY WAYS YOU AND I EXCEPT ONE
... --- ...
THERE ARE
BILLIONS OF YOU
YET
ONLY ONE OF ME
Going to call it a day. Night everyone! Its debates like these that produce the best solutions to problems.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:



The biggest issue I see here is transmission losses. All these super cool, awesome, fantastic, wonderful, terrific ways of generating electricity, seem to be some distance away from the center of any continent. Texas struggles with transmission losses constantly with wind power in western and northern parts of the state. The majority of the population falls in the Texas Triangle (Dallas, San Antonio, Houston). Solar on a large scale basis is spotty in reliability and not nearly as advanced as suggested. Hydro is fantastic but where else do we put turbines in the water at? Major rivers with substantial flows and lakes with appropriate elevation relief have been explored and taken in the US. Not to mention, impeding any body of water has it's own set of environmental complications.

We're just not there yet fella. Certain parts of our country are growing at far too rapid a pace to phase out reliable fossil generation. I'd give it 20 to 25 years before we see new renewable generational technology becoming dominant over fossil fuels. It's inevitable that we'll get there. It will take time to get it right before full conversion begins.

This is not meant to start a verbal battle between renewable and non-renewable, right wing and left wing, or good and bad. Working in the energy production/distribution field provides me with a little insight I'm afraid. I'm just simply stating my opinion on where we're REALLY at. We'll get there someday.

I can't wait to hear your remarks.


Transmission losses are not anything like you believe them to be. Transmission losses with HVDC are very low. Our major losses are at the distribution level. Those will largely go away as we upgrade the grid.

Texas, and other places, need to build transmission. Obviously if we're going to get our power from different places then we'll have to run wires, or larger wires, to those places. We've got several major transmission projects underway.

We've got something like 80,000 existing dams in the US and use only 2,500 for power generation. Several thousand more are usable for generation. They have adequate inflow and head and are reasonably close to transmission lines. Several are under conversion at the moment. (In addition several thousand more are good candidates for pump-up storage.)

Then there is 'run of the river' generation which we are only starting to install.

Solar is up and running. The price of PV is falling very rapidly and solar is becoming cost competitive. In addition several thermal solar plants, some with storage, are currently coming on line. Germany has installed enough solar to see the cost of their electricity falling during the 'solar hours'.

How quickly we push fossil fuels off our grid is a guess. Essentially no new coal generation is being built. Natural gas generation is growing, largely due to the current low price of gas. However if we get concerned about climate change and if fracking problems are not solved we're going to see restrictions on gas use.

Wind is now producing 3% of our electricity. Solar is on track to hit 1% by 2015. Hydro is running about 8%. Coal has fallen from a high of 56% to 42%. Natural gas has risen to about 25%.

Will renewables dominate our grid 20 years from now? I suspect it depends on how scared we get about climate change. At the rate we are now going they won't, but if we desired for it to happen they could.



Update
(click to enlarge)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Have we seen our first tropical wave yet? There was two features that appeared to be waves on the 5th and 10th
Determining the first tropical wave seems rather subjective since we get many low level tropical troughs/waves passing through the Atlantic. On NHC's analysis they have a weak surface trough identified just east of the lesser Antilles although I don't think it originated over Africa in the AEJ as a typical tropical wave does. I haven't been paying attention to the past surface analyses so I can't say if we have had our first tropical wave yet.


Quoting TomTaylor:
Determining the first tropical wave seems rather subjective since we get many low level tropical troughs/waves passing through the Atlantic. On NHC's analysis they have a weak surface trough identified just east of the lesser Antilles. I haven't been paying attention to the past surface analyses so I can't say if we have had our first tropical wave this year.




Well it's hard to identify a tropical wave purely through satellite pictures. The significance of these waves are found in the lower to middle troposphere, in the form of pronounced wind shifts.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Determining the first tropical wave seems rather subjective since we get many low level tropical troughs/waves passing through the Atlantic. On NHC's analysis they have one identified just east of the lesser Antilles. I haven't been paying attention to the past surface analyses so I can't say if it's the first one, though I doubt that. I'm also not sure if this is a tropical wave that we normally think of (originating over Africa in the AEJ), but it is a wave...a tropical wave.




Wasn't on the 18Z analysis.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Was not that bad. So really lets say 2 significant accidents. I have seen wind farms. They cover a very large amount of land. To the point where I can see them for miles out of a plane at 36,000ft. Well whats the problem with using lots of land? Land prices increase every day as the human population grows. At some point there will be a need to expand. There are three ways you can expand, Up (Which would be awsome), Down (Also awsome), or widen (not so much). Most likely it will be a combination of the 3 but widening is the cheapest currently. But with that land prices will rise. Take Japan for example. High demand for little little supply. Land cost thousands of USD. That is why it is primarily powered by nuclear reactors. Same thing will happen in the US. At a slower rate? Of course but still at one point it will happen. So what is better. Planning for the far future with what we have or near? Also this chart should explain a lot with the cost.

I am not downing wind power just trying to prove that nuclear energy is a better alt. Also with the deaths I see your point. Have to admit this is quite the debate. Really enjoying it. Nice and civilized.


The turbine footings use less than 2% of wind farm area. The remaining 98% is still available for original use be it farming, grazing or wildlife.

Ranchers and farmers who lease out their land to wind farm operations make very nice money for the 2% they give up. It's bringing life back to many of our Midwest towns. Good jobs and tax revenues are revitalizing what were becoming ghost towns as agriculture became more mechanized.

Additionally, wind farms are generally located where people really don't want to live. Ever spent significant time in a place where the wind howled day after day? That land is never going to get as valuable as a nice piece of property along a babbling brook.

In addition we have massive amounts of wind offshore. That's where our best wind is located.

Your price chart is quite inaccurate if we're talking about generation to be built. Those are historical prices. They represent the price of electricity from nuclear and coal plants built and paid off years ago. The wind price is out of date as are the solar and natural gas prices.

Current price estimates:

New nuclear $0.15 to $.25/kWh. Plus government subsidies.

New coal $0.19/kWh. Plus health costs.

New wind $0.06/kWh. No subsidies included.

New solar $0.15/kWh. No subsidies included.

New combined cycle natural gas somewhere under the price of wind. I haven't seen a number for a few months.

Peaking gas turbines prices are significantly higher.

New hydro. I have no idea what that's running. I'm sure it's higher than what the chart shows, but it is low enough that some existing dams are being converted to generation.
371. wxmod
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Require huge amounts of land.
Edit: Nuke power only cost $0.02/kWh. that is 66% percent less then windfarms. Plus the amount of land used is much less. Not to mention the accident rate for nuclear plants is much less. In the last 40 years of US nuke power not a single person has died. While with wind power... 41 Worker Fatalities, 16 Public- Includes falling from turbine towers and transporting turbines on the highway.
39 Incidents of Blade Failure- Failed blades have been known to travel over a quarter mile, killing any unfortunate bystanders within its path of destruction.
110 Incidents of Fire- When a wind turbine fire occurs, local fire departments can do little but watch due to the 30-story height of these turbine units. The falling debris are then carried across the distance and cause new fires.
60 Incidents of Structural Failure- As turbines become more prevalent, these breakages will become more common in public areas, thereby causing more deaths and dismemberment's from falling debris.
24 incidents of "hurling ice"- Ice forms on these giant blades and is reportedly hurled at deathly speeds in all directions. Author reports that some 880 ice incidents of this nature have occurred over Germany's 13-years of harnessing wind power.


Nuke power costs .02 if you don't include waste disposal cost and if they don't blow up and cost a billion bucks a kwh. Cows can graze under wind farms. You have a bunch of lies in your pocket. What a bunch of dog wash.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Wasn't on the 18Z analysis.

all about that 00z


Quoting KoritheMan:


Well it's hard to identify a tropical wave purely through satellite pictures. The significance of these waves are found in the lower to middle troposphere, in the form of pronounced wind shifts.
Yea the trough identified there is pretty weak, very little wind shift.
Quoting TomTaylor:
all about that 00z




So it is new. Therefore, not a tropical wave and just another weak surface trough.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING IS COVERING MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 42N51W...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA W OF 71W
INCLUDING THE WRN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO TEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 69W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N62W
TO 27N61W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
S OF 20N BETWEEN 53W-61W. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO N OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG A LINE FROM 20N63W TO
23N69W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY E OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MOIST SWLY ALOFT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 41N27W TO 26N52W.
THIS UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N26W TO 28N29W.
NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 8N37W.
See in the sw Caribbean on the water vapor. First signs of a little action. Lot's of moisture.
Penn State e-WALL : THE ELECTRONIC MAP WALL

UPPER AIR PLOTS/ANALYSES CURRENT OBS: 00UTC 16MAY12
850MB Still Loop 700MB Still Loop 500MB Still Loop 300MB Still Loop
0000 UTC MODELS CURRENT RUN: 16MAY12
U.S. OPERATIONAL 4-PANEL
NAM 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 All Select Regional Loop
GFS 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 All
ADDITIONAL 4-PANEL
UK 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 60 72 All
CMC 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 All
NCEP MODEL COMPARISONS
6-HR PRECIP/TOTAL PRECIP - US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
850 MB HEIGHT/TEMP/WND/REL - US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
SFC TO 800MB TEMPERATURES - EAST US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
300 MB HEIGHT/WND/REL - US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
LIFTED INDEX/PRECIPITABLE WATER 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS - NAM/GFS 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
24HR TEMP/DEW/WIND CHANGE - NAM/GFS 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 All
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE (21UTC)
500MB-US 700MB-US 850MB-US PRS/PCN-US PCNTOT-US 2M TEMP-US PTYPE-US
500MB-NE 700MB-NE 850MB-NE PRS/PCN-NE PCNTOT-NE 2M TEMP-NE PTYPE-NE
1200 UTC MODELS CURRENT RUN: 15MAY12
U.S. OPERATIONAL 4-PANEL
NAM 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 All Select Regional Loop
GFS 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 All
ADDITIONAL 4-PANEL
UK 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 60 72 All
CMC 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 All
NCEP MODEL COMPARISONS
6-HR PRECIP/TOTAL PRECIP - US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
850 MB HEIGHT/TEMP/WND/REL - US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
SFC TO 800MB TEMPERATURES - EAST US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
300 MB HEIGHT/WND/REL - US 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
LIFTED INDEX/PRECIPITABLE WATER 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS - NAM/GFS 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 All
24HR TEMP/DEW/WIND CHANGE - NAM/GFS
Quoting WxGeekVA:


So it is new. Therefore, not a tropical wave and just another weak surface trough.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING IS COVERING MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 42N51W...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA W OF 71W
INCLUDING THE WRN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO TEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 69W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N62W
TO 27N61W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
S OF 20N BETWEEN 53W-61W. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO N OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG A LINE FROM 20N63W TO
23N69W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY E OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MOIST SWLY ALOFT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 41N27W TO 26N52W.
THIS UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N26W TO 28N29W.
NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 8N37W.
Yep, I took their wording lol
Quoting BobWallace:


Transmission losses are not anything like you believe them to be. Transmission losses with HVDC are very low. Our major losses are at the distribution level. Those will largely go away as we upgrade the grid.

Texas, and other places, need to build transmission. Obviously if we're going to get our power from different places then we'll have to run wires, or larger wires, to those places. We've got several major transmission projects underway.

We've got something like 80,000 existing dams in the US and use only 2,500 for power generation. Several thousand more are usable for generation. They have adequate inflow and head and are reasonably close to transmission lines. Several are under conversion at the moment. (In addition several thousand more are good candidates for pump-up storage.)

Then there is 'run of the river' generation which we are only starting to install.

Solar is up and running. The price of PV is falling very rapidly and solar is becoming cost competitive. In addition several thermal solar plants, some with storage, are currently coming on line. Germany has installed enough solar to see the cost of their electricity falling during the 'solar hours'.

How quickly we push fossil fuels off our grid is a guess. Essentially no new coal generation is being built. Natural gas generation is growing, largely due to the current low price of gas. However if we get concerned about climate change and if fracking problems are not solved we're going to see restrictions on gas use.

Wind is now producing 3% of our electricity. Solar is on track to hit 1% by 2015. Hydro is running about 8%. Coal has fallen from a high of 56% to 42%. Natural gas has risen to about 25%.

Will renewables dominate our grid 20 years from now? I suspect it depends on how scared we get about climate change. At the rate we are now going they won't, but if we desired for it to happen they could.





Where do you get your info from sir? Let's begin...

I run into issues DAILY with losses from transmission. DAILY!! HVDC is not wind power's saving grace, believe me (even in 345Kv). In addition, the wind isn't always blowing. In fact, western sections of ERCOT are notorious for having brown-outs due to wind issues. It takes sometime to fire up those coal fired plants to catch back up with demand.

Run of the river dams are not new. Also, your statement on having several thousand more hydro plants in addition to the 2500 that are in use, seems a bit ridiculous. I must say though, hydro is not my area of expertise (I live in Texas). I will gladly eat my words if solid data on this can be provided.

Solar will only work in sunbelt regions. Transmission issues will come into play again getting the juice back to the population. Also, didn't a major solar panel producer just go bankrupt or something? Maybe you can shed some light on that. Oh and another thing, what's Germany's population doing? I think if we (the USA) were at a stand still, it would be much more plausable to push for new, renewable sources of power. But until it's very much proven, how can we afford to move away from our bread and butter?

There ARE new coal plants being built. QUite a few actually. Check out ultra-supercritical boilers, IGCC units, and new state of the art CFB boilers (circulating fluidized beds).

Like I said in my previous post, it's inevitable that we will move to renewable technology. We're not there yet. Patience grasshopper.

(Good for Germany)
Quoting wxmod:


Nuke power costs .02 if you don't include waste disposal cost and if they don't blow up and cost a billion bucks a kwh. Cows can graze under wind farms. You have a bunch of lies in your pocket. What a bunch of dog wash.
Glad I caught this before I left. Prime example of how not to respond to someone. How about you respond to me in a polite manner like Bob has this whole time. He is obviously the more well informed of the two of us. He took a side on the issue and so did I. His info was more up to date than mine. Nothing I said was a lie. Outdated? As I have learned yes. Responses like this cause conflict and nothing further is achieved from the argument. I debated to the best of my cabilities with the info I had.
380. xcool
I seethe forecast models have backed off development
Could any weather situation blowing dust from this area to your town, throw you radiation?

L.A. Daily News: Casino to be built on site of nuclear reactor meltdown just miles from Los Angeles? Was up to 240 times Three Mile Island %u2014 Cesium-137 still up to 1,000 times over limit


Los Angeles-area Meltdown: Cesium-137 still up to 1,000 times higher than standard -- Plutonium also detected -- Located between Chatsworth and Simi Valley
Erin Brockovich taking on nuke industry: "Massive amounts of cancer" in hometown near L.A. -- Astounded by rare, rare cancers among youth (VIDEOS)

Title: Full cleanup in doubt in Simi Hills
Source: LA Daily News
Author: Susan Abram, Staff Writer
Date: 04/07/2012 05:34:16 PM PDT





The cost of nuclear energy??

The trillon dollars that Japan saved using nuclear energy, washed away in a few days in Fukushima....

Three Mile island accident produced deaths.... There was an increase in cancers and other consecuenses due to the accident....

The pile of used nuclear fuel in the USA and many other countris and the cost of disposing it makes nuclear energy a nightmare..... left for future generations....

Many contaminated areas in the mainland have nuclear latent underground poison vulnerable to being exposed by weather, quekes, fires and many other acts of god....


-----------------------------------------


Title: Counting the Costs: Three Mile Island
Source: Listener%u2019s Choice from CBC Radio
Date: June 6th, 2008

Gwen Anderson was only twenty-three years old when she first heard %u201CCounting the Costs: Three Mile Island%u201D on CBC Radio. Now it%u2019s twenty-three years later, and Gwen earns a living doing the same kind of work that the men at Three Mile Island did. She requested this Ideas documentary from Winnipeg. It originally aired on October 13th, 1986.

Transcript Summary

Reports we are getting say infant mortality rates doubled
More important is the enormous increase in cancer deaths in children in the four counties surrounding TMI compared to the numbers previous to the accident that the health department listed even on say leukemia
Animals and plants damaged substantially
We have done an in-depth report on plant life
We are seeing many mutations
We saw the leaves the first year
All the birds on the farm disappeared
The trees, it looked like winter
Not only did we see complete defoliation, we saw trees defoliated at different levels
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



MESSAGE FROM MOTHER EARTH .....

WE ARE ALOT A LIKE IN MANY WAYS YOU AND I EXCEPT ONE
... --- ...
THERE ARE
BILLIONS OF YOU
YET
ONLY ONE OF ME

I'm here for the ride. What ever happens.
severe weather next to philadelphia at 12:40pm time!!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yep, I took their wording lol

Its a surface trough that developed due to upper divergence ahead of an upper trough that has been cut-off near the Lesser Antilles for the last several days.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:


Where do you get your info from sir? Let's begin...

I run into issues DAILY with losses from transmission. DAILY!! HVDC is not wind power's saving grace, believe me (even in 345Kv). In addition, the wind isn't always blowing. In fact, western sections of ERCOT are notorious for having brown-outs due to wind issues. It takes sometime to fire up those coal fired plants to catch back up with demand.

Run of the river dams are not new. Also, your statement on having several thousand more hydro plants in addition to the 2500 that are in use, seems a bit ridiculous. I must say though, hydro is not my area of expertise (I live in Texas). I will gladly eat my words if solid data on this can be provided.

Solar will only work in sunbelt regions. Transmission issues will come into play again getting the juice back to the population. Also, didn't a major solar panel producer just go bankrupt or something? Maybe you can shed some light on that. Oh and another thing, what's Germany's population doing? I think if we (the USA) were at a stand still, it would be much more plausable to push for new, renewable sources of power. But until it's very much proven, how can we afford to move away from our bread and butter?

There ARE new coal plants being built. QUite a few actually. Check out ultra-supercritical boilers, IGCC units, and new state of the art CFB boilers (circulating fluidized beds).

Like I said in my previous post, it's inevitable that we will move to renewable technology. We're not there yet. Patience grasshopper.

(Good for Germany)


For renewables to work we will need lots more transmission lines. There's lots of wind in the Texas panhandle but it does not blow all the time. That means that we will have to send power to there from time to time.

Right now we are starting the process of building HVDC transmission from Wyoming wind farms to the Pacific Intertie and Intermountain Intertie. That will complete a loop of HVDC that runs from Southern California to the Pacific Northwest and east to Utah and Wyoming. It will carry hydro and wind from the PNW to SoCal, wind from Wyoming to SoCal and Southern Desert solar north and east.

Wyoming wind meshes wonderfully with SoCal solar. The winds in Wyoming tend to pick up speed just about the time the SoCal Sun starts to drop out.

TVA is building a HVDC line from Oklahoma to East Tennessee. It's cheaper to buy and ship OK wind than to build new 'other' generation in TN.

--

Coal is on its way out. It fell to 42.2% of our sourcing last year and to 36% in Q1 2012. To a large extent natural gas is replacing coal and NG turbines can spin from full off to full on in 10-15 minutes. Batteries can respond instantly.

--

Solar works everywhere. It performs beautifully close to north pole for several months of the year. Canada is installing lots of solar. Solar powers summer demand. The secret to renewables is to create the best mix of sources for the area. Wind, hydro and tidal will be much larger players in the NE US. Wind, geothermal and solar in the SW US.

--

Here's 2007 survey of existing dams on federal lands that backs up my hydro statement.

http://www.usbr.gov/power/data/1834/Sec1834_EPA.p df

There have been follow up studies of dams not on federal lands which confirm the findings.

---

Several solar panel manufacturers are going under.

We're in a period of consolidation which is normal for any new technology. We've reached the point at which the efficient manufacturers are growing very large and the inefficient manufactures are failing.

Solar panels have moved from being a high margin product to more of a commodity where margins are small and profits come from large volume manufacturing.

Think about what has happened to cell phone manufacturing or digital cameras. Prices have fallen by very large factors and many manufacturers fell by the wayside. Only the most efficient companies survived.

This is being accelerated because China is dumping panels in the US at prices below their production costs. Recently tariffs have been established to counteract this practice but the tariffs are too late for some US companies.

--

Germany's population is getting rid of both coal and nuclear. They were concentrating on coal until Fukushima melted. Then they decided getting rid of nuclear was a higher priority, so they backed off on closing coal plants for a while.

Germany now has enough solar installed that they are seeing the price of electricity drop on sunny days. Coal plants are hurting because they are use to making very good profits when merit order pricing drives the wholesale cost of power very high.

BTW, during Europe's heat wave last summer Germany sold power from its solar systems to France as France's nuclear plants couldn't keep up with demand.

--

There has been one new coal plant approved in the last three years. All other proposals were killed.

There are a small number of plants which were begun several years ago and are now being completed, but that seems to be the end of US coal. As coal plants wear out they will not be replaced with new coal plants.

Additionally, we have something like 106 coal plants now scheduled for early closure.

--

Old plants, coal and nuclear are wearing out. We will need to replace them with something.

It makes no sense to build new coal or nuclear plants when the power from them would be more expensive than power from wind, solar or geothermal.

Our grids can utilize 25% (Eastern grid) to 35% (Western grid) inputs from wind and solar with no modifications or new storage. We're now just about 3% wind and solar combined. We can build renewables for several years before we will have to do anything about storage.

--

We've got new grid battery technology going into production which promises to bring the cost of storing power to under $0.02/kWh. That makes stored wind very affordable. Eight cents per kWh, well under what utilities now pay for peak hour power.

--

EVs coming on line will let us install much more wind and solar without adding storage. EVs are dispatchable load. Cars sit parked 90% of their lives. If they are plugged in while parked then they can absorb wind/solar supply peaks thus allowing more generation to be added to the grid.





Missed this...

Run of the river dams are not new.

No, but new technology is extending the places where we can install run of the river. The sort of turbine development that is happening with tidal generation is being extended to large rivers.

Turbines are being installed in the locks of the Mississippi and research is being done looking for the best way to harvest power directly from the river itself.

And at some point they're going to start dropping turbines into that great river that runs off the coast of Florida. There's a massive amount of power to be collected there. Over 3 knots of flow, 24/365.

(Cuba will do better as the current in the Florida Straights IIRC runs about six knots. Sailing on it is a kick. One covers a lot of water in a short period.)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



MESSAGE FROM MOTHER EARTH .....

WE ARE ALOT A LIKE IN MANY WAYS YOU AND I EXCEPT ONE
... --- ...
THERE ARE
BILLIONS OF YOU
YET
ONLY ONE OF ME
:)
Aletta is looking pretty funky.
390. Xeloi
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Was not that bad. So really lets say 2 significant accidents. I have seen wind farms. They cover a very large amount of land. To the point where I can see them for miles out of a plane at 36,000ft. Well whats the problem with using lots of land? Land prices increase every day as the human population grows. At some point there will be a need to expand. There are three ways you can expand, Up (Which would be awsome), Down (Also awsome), or widen (not so much). Most likely it will be a combination of the 3 but widening is the cheapest currently. But with that land prices will rise. Take Japan for example. High demand for little little supply. Land cost thousands of USD. That is why it is primarily powered by nuclear reactors. Same thing will happen in the US. At a slower rate? Of course but still at one point it will happen. So what is better. Planning for the far future with what we have or near? Also this chart should explain a lot with the cost.

I am not downing wind power just trying to prove that nuclear energy is a better alt. Also with the deaths I see your point. Have to admit this is quite the debate. Really enjoying it. Nice and civilized.


Another issue with Nuclear power is that it HAS to be centralized, while most of us can contribute with wind and solar power. And while that table lists the cost of production, it doesn't necessarily reflect the cost to the consumer -- if these other power sources are so much cheaper, why can many of us save money by having solar panels installed?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
.......
Take Japan for example. High demand for little little supply. Land cost thousands of USD. That is why it is primarily powered by nuclear reactors. Same thing will happen in the US. .........

I am not downing wind power just trying to prove that nuclear energy is a better alt. ....


Hurricanehunter, my latest readings about Japan is that they have shutdown their last operating reactor. The Japanese are keeping them in case they need the power but are rapidly discarding the technology except for emergencies. Why? I suspect it is because they now know the real cost of nuclear power better than the rest of us. A little further speculation: Japan will become a major market for wind turbines in the near future.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Where did you hear about a resolution update?


Link

Link slide 37
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well thats a large problem right there. ...
Also have to remember that a US house holds use a ton of power and so houses need a decent amounts of panels to keep 100% coverage of energy needs. ...


Hurricanehunter, my wife and I live in an old farmhouse in the country of central VA. Last month we did not take any vacations, were here every day and our total electric usage for the month was 258 kilowatt-hours, less than 10 kilowatt-hours per day. All of our appliances are totally electric and we heat the house (little needed last month) with wood.

Over the past year our greatest monthly usage was January 2012, 677 kilowatt-hours. Our average monthly usage for the period 5/11 to 4/12 was 422.25 kilowatt-hours. Yes, we are conscious of our usage and actively try to keep it down.

It can be done.
The Euro still has a stacked tough east of Cape Hatteras(before petering out) with a corresponding ridge over Florida building behind a frontal boundary for this weekend.

Aletta is down to 40 mph this morning

Good Morning..06zGFS running now

397. MahFL
Quoting percylives:


Hurricanehunter, my wife and I live in an old farmhouse in the country of central VA. Last month we did not take any vacations, were here every day and our total electric usage for the month was 258 kilowatt-hours, less than 10 kilowatt-hours per day. All of our appliances are totally electric and we heat the house (little needed last month) with wood.

Over the past year our greatest monthly usage was January 2012, 677 kilowatt-hours. Our average monthly usage for the period 5/11 to 4/12 was 422.25 kilowatt-hours. Yes, we are conscious of our usage and actively try to keep it down.

It can be done.


Whats your $ usage per year for wood, and does it come from a renewable source ?
Can't say that I would completely rule out the Western Caribbean thought "Just" because the long range models have backed off. They can just as easily hop back on the bandwagon. This is the most convection I've seen down there in a long time. I'm surely not saying it will however, I'm not saying it won't either.


Looks like a wet one...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like a wet one...



Wet week ahead. Weekend as well if the low fails to develop in the Western Atlantic as the frontal boundary will remain stalled over the area.
Quoting percylives:


Hurricanehunter, my latest readings about Japan is that they have shutdown their last operating reactor. The Japanese are keeping them in case they need the power but are rapidly discarding the technology except for emergencies. Why? I suspect it is because they now know the real cost of nuclear power better than the rest of us. A little further speculation: Japan will become a major market for wind turbines in the near future.
Japan has not permintly shut them down. They are currently all going through matince and upgrades. But most of them will be kept off line from public pressures. It's public fear. Got to keep the populous happy.
404. MahFL
Quoting BobWallace:..

EVs are just so cheap to drive that people will change what they want to drive...


"Electric-car sales fall in April"
"April Sales of Electric Cars Fall Despite High Gas Prices in USA"
"Ford Motor Co. sold no Focus Electrics for the third straight month"

I think your living in la la land.......
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
There was an argument here, go figure, about weather or not the rainy season started in FL or not. I think this was posted yesterday on the NWS site.

"Rainy Season 2012 Underway

The daily cycle of showers and thunderstorms which defines the South Florida rainy season has begun earlier than normal this year. This year%u2019s rainy season started on Tuesday, May 8th which is almost two weeks earlier than the median start date of May 20th and the earliest start since 2003."


That's a bit premature to say as models clear us out by Friday behind a late season front. So whoever wrote that needs to do the math lol.
Miami NWS Discussion

THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE
EFFECT OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAINS
DETACHED OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE
SE US. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREED ON THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A DRIER WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS BOTH MODELS INDICATING THAT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER PARTS OF THE SE US AND
FLORIDA. WITH WINDS A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON THE WEEKEND THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
Quoting xcool:
I seethe forecast models have backed off development


Yep...Except for the southwestern Atlantic(though even that's ify right now).
The disturbance west of Aletta has consolidated quickly overnight.

Probably worth of 20% at the next TWO.

Quoting weatherbro:


That's a bit premature to say as models clear us out by Friday behind a late season front. So whoever wrote that needs to do the math lol.


Good Morning! First of all the models do not clear us out by Friday. We are in the rain for a long time.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012


THURS-FRI...PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY. LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 90+KT JET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM COVERAGE A LITTLE LOWER ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE/SOME NVA OVER THE AREA. AM HESITANT TO
SCALE POPS BACK TOO MUCH GIVEN THE TROFFING ALOFT AND LINGERING
MOISTURE...SO FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED 70 POPS THURSDAY THEN POPS IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY. MAXES IN MID/UPPER 80S AND
MINS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.

SAT-TUE...00Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF STILL INDICATE A 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTH FL/PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND WITH AREA INFLUENCED BY TROFFINESS
ALOFT/UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVELY
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
PENINSULA FROM CARIBBEAN. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFICS AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE/SCT CAT DAYTIME AND
ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES
FOR LATE MAY.

I don't see any troughs on top of Florida...

Friday



Saturday



Sunday


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AREAS THAT SEE
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND RECEIVE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.

BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AS WELL AS MOVING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE GULF.
STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE NORTHEAST BACK TOWARD THE COAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TEMPORARY
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL
ON TUESDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

Quoting LargoFl:


Man that rain is getting close to you.

Looks like Bud could be the first landfalling tropical storm of the season in the EPAC.

When was the last time we saw a radar image of FL showing a large shield of rain this early in the morning.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 770 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 525 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting StormTracker2K:
When was the last time we saw a radar image of FL showing a large shield of rain this early in the morning.

amazing i went out for the paper and there where 5 lil drops of moisture on my windshield..can i say..we MIGHT get some rain today? lol..yesss
Trinidad.
It's raining again.
How unusual.....
Notice two BIG blobs of rain in the gulf coming into Florida..there is a dry spot inbetween..thats me in tampa bay....geez Tampa..Lower the shields..LET this rain in please.........................
I'm wondering...If El Ninos of all varieties(east, central, west-based) give Florida a wet May, Why was May of 2006 dry?
92E is born:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205161137
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922012
EP, 92, 2012051606, , BEST, 0, 97N, 976W, 25, 0, DB
Quoting pottery:
Trinidad.
It's raining again.
How unusual.....
LOL...Good morning Pottery.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Good Morning! First of all the models do not clear us out by Friday. We are in the rain for a long time.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012


THURS-FRI...PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY. LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 90 KT JET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM COVERAGE A LITTLE LOWER ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE/SOME NVA OVER THE AREA. AM HESITANT TO
SCALE POPS BACK TOO MUCH GIVEN THE TROFFING ALOFT AND LINGERING
MOISTURE...SO FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED 70 POPS THURSDAY THEN POPS IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY. MAXES IN MID/UPPER 80S AND
MINS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.

SAT-TUE...00Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF STILL INDICATE A 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTH FL/PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND WITH AREA INFLUENCED BY TROFFINESS
ALOFT/UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVELY
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
PENINSULA FROM CARIBBEAN. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
SPECIFICS AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE/SCT CAT DAYTIME AND
ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES
FOR LATE MAY.



ok I consent:) but it's not just Florida but most of the SE states.
Quoting weatherbro:
I'm wondering...If El Ninos of all varieties(east, central, west-based) give Florida a wet May, Why was May of 2006 dry?


Good question as not only was May dry that year went down as the top 10 driest ever in orlando while 2009 overall was wet but usually El-nino years bring above average rain to FL. May averages 3.50" and many areas yesterday had 2" to 3" and this could be trend everyday this week.
Quoting weatherbro:


ok I consent:) but it's not just Florida but most of the SE states.


I think what you were seeing was an old forecast because the models didn't start showing this change until Monday night.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FLZ028-128-161215-
INLAND TAYLOR FL-COASTAL TAYLOR FL-
729 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY...

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

AT 728 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEINHATCHEE...OR NEAR HOWELL
PLACE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE KEATON BEACH
MARINE OBSERVATION MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 32 MPH.

ALSO...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 2970 8350 2973 8357 2975 8357 2976 8360
2981 8360 2989 8365 2991 8337 2989 8335
2982 8335 2982 8332 2978 8332 2975 8334
2967 8336 2967 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 275DEG 11KT 2978 8353

$$

08-LAMERS
Welcome, Invest 92E.

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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922012
EP, 92, 2012051606, , BEST, 0, 97N, 976W, 25, 0, DB
Hey Largo look as this line forming our in the Gulf. I bet this builds SE as the day goes on.

If I am reading this chart correctly we are on the threshold of an El Nino.



More El Nino Southern Oscillation outlooks
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If I am reading this chart correctly we are on the threshold of an El Nino.



More El Nino Southern Oscillation outlooks

We are in the Neutral phase right now. If we manage to reach El Niño, which there is a high chance we will, it will be when we reach 0.5 °C. We are currently .5 °C lower than that at 0.0 °C.
434. MahFL
I got 1.25 more inches of rain yesterday, the grass is looking quite lush and green now.
435. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
When was the last time we saw a radar image of FL showing a large shield of rain this early in the morning.



It's been a long time, bring it on !
Well, I'm off to school...again. English I final today. Watch 92E for me, guys.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, I'm off to school...again. English I final today. Watch 92E for me, guys.



Good luck buddy! I sure you will get an A.
There some rain in near Tampa.


morning wunderbloggers!!
wxbro:florida's rainy season is driven by a deep layer SE flow,so troughyness over florida is not usually our rainy season/pattern,actually more driven by high pressure over the bahamas.
Largo:big rains and storm much more likely tonight around midnight- thurs am,im expecting .50-1 inch totals averaged along coastal and inland areas,also a possiblity of some seabreeze storms along the coast movingbquickly inland over the next 4-5 hrs!inland locations expect isolated severe possible today 2-8pm as well
el nino is when you reach +0.5 and higher neutral is between +0.5 and -0.5

on other not we have purple in the W caribbean




anyway I am out going on a fishing trip before bad weather catches up with us

but before I go I want to say I still think there is a chance for us to have a TD/ weak TS in the caribbean
Here's the updated HPC preliminaries...

...SW Atlantic low will cut-off near Cape Hatteras with front still prognosed to stall across Cuba...

Saturday


Sunday


Monday


...Before backing up to Central Florida Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
Tuesday


Wednesday
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Can't say that I would completely rule out the Western Caribbean thought "Just" because the long range models have backed off. They can just as easily hop back on the bandwagon. This is the most convection I've seen down there in a long time. I'm surely not saying it will however, I'm not saying it won't either.


Thw Western Caribbean is certainly ready for development temperature wise. The shear forecast looks somewhat favorable, and if we get some disturbance or decent low pressure there, we could have something significant.
This shows the Gulf Stream better..Swimming off of Jersey anyone.?...no...
GOES Imager Spectral Difference
May 16, 2012 - 13:45 UTCNSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 16 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Might have something to watch in a week or so..