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Alberto weakens, brings light rains to Georgia and South Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on May 20, 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to move slowly to the west-southwest off the coast of South Carolina, and is bringing light rains to the coasts northern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Recent radar and satellite loops show that Alberto has weakened late this morning, and has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. Upper level winds out of the west-southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and these winds are driving dry air into the storm, which has caused it to deteriorate. The dry air impinging on Alberto can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Yesterday, Alberto was over the warm 81°F (27°C) water of the Gulf Stream, but today, the storm has moved west of the Gulf Stream, and is now centered over cooler waters of 79°F (26°C). This gives the storm a lot less energy to power it, and as Alberto drifts farther to the west-southwest today, ocean temperatures will get even cooler. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Alberto this afternoon.


Figure 1. Late morning visible satellite image of Alberto.

Forecast for Alberto
Sporadic rain showers from Alberto are likely to affect the Georgia and South Carolina coasts today, and the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina on Monday. The heaviest rains and tropical storm-force winds should remain offshore, but even if Alberto did make landfall, the storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will be generally less than an inch over land areas, which will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief. Wind shear is expected to increase to the high range, 30 - 40 knots, tonight through Monday, which should be able to rapidly disrupt a storm as small as Alberto. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Monday morning, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday night which should lift the storm out to the northeast. NHC is giving Alberto a less than 5% chance of reaching hurricane strength. Alberto should cause little or no damage to the coast, except perhaps for some coastal erosion due to high waves.


Figure 2. Late morning total rainfall image of Alberto from the Charleston, SC radar. Alberto's rains have been less than one inch along the coast, and most of the rain has fallen offshore.


Figure 3. Late morning radar image of Alberto from the Charleston, SC radar.

Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

if i lived in MX i would be watching 92E right now
Quoting BahaHurican:


Hi Baha, that area has been quite persistent all day, I think it deserves at least a 10% yellow circle at 7CST.
Quoting Tazmanian:
if i lived in MX i would be watching 92E right now
we got a bit before it gets there
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Is some thing going to form in the West Pac?
Probability of TC formation shows something.

And do you think anything will form in the NW Carib?
It is on the CMC and on the Prob of TC formation slightly as well.
According to the bulletin MAwxboy posted, it should have a red circle on it...


Today's eclipse is a Annular one with the Moon not quite covering the Sun's Disk leaving a annulus appearance,due to the Moon being closer to the Earth.

Quoting Patrap:


Today's eclipse is a Annular one with the Moon not quite covering the Sun's Disk leaving a annulus appearance,due to the Moon being closer to the Earth.

i know that was quoted from an ap item
Quoting Patrap:


Today's eclipse is a Annular one with the Moon not quite covering the Sun's Disk leaving a annulus appearance,due to the Moon being closer to the Earth.



Actually, we're near apogee.

The moon is farther from the Earth, and so it appears smaller, blocking less sun light, which you can show using basic geometry why this is the case.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Hi Baha, that area has been quite persistent all day, I think it deserves at least a 10% yellow circle at 7CST.
I gotta agree, some insane cloudtops in that area all day.... thing is, other stuff in not in place as yet. I certainly am watching this area with interest, since anything that DOES form has equal chances of tracking off to the NW in to the GOM and of heading NE over Cuba and the Bahamas. Whatever it turns into, it'll be bringing all that WCar moisture / heat energy with it...
Quoting Ameister12:
92E up to 60%! It really got going today.

It may be higher at the next Tropical Weather Outlook.
the 18Z Nogaps calling for the bahamas storm as well..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It may be higher at the next Tropical Weather Outlook.
Maybe 80%
Now that I'm back on my laptop (thank goodness!), I can look at satellites and everything else easily.

This will be a tropical depression in the morning if current trends continue.

RIP Alberto?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
Only a matter of time before we see Bud. What a name for a storm.
92E is up to 80%.

Nigel deserves a cookie for guessing 92E's percent correctly. =D
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
We should have Bud by Monday
Quoting Ameister12:
92E is up to 80%.

Nigel deserves a cookie for guessing 92E's percent correctly. =D

We have a limited supply of cookies this season. I'm afraid we don't give those out for correctly guessing percentages anymore.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
RIP Alberto?

Don't think ur fork will come away quite clean, but it's pretty close.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We have a limited supply of cookies this season. I'm afraid we don't give those out for correctly guessing percentages anymore.

Oh. That's a huge shame. =(
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Thanks for that one Keeper.
Nasty little cluster of the East coast of Japan and about opposite it, from a longitude degrees point of view, is the nasty little cluster in the North of Italy.
I don't like the look of these '2'
Hasta Manana.
Even though convection has significantly waned, there's still a well defined COC and it's pretty cool to look at on visible.

**GRAPHICS UPDATE**
(click to magnify graphics; graphics can further be magnified in Link window)
Seems we'll have Bud to track right behind Alberto. In fact, ever since the formation of Aletta, we've had a named storm to track every day.
Quoting Ameister12:

Oh. That's a huge shame. =(
Agreed
PRE 94L in the GOH need to be watched as convection is growing plus the upperlevel anticyclone is now movin NE to honduras via CIMSS shear map causing shear to fall in the area 850 vort has grown in thearea as well with the 925 vort pressures have fallen plus Ascat plus Oscat and surface obs show the circulation is near to rotan honduras
Looks like a new EPAC system in the near future.

FULL IMAGE

Fukushima Update:


Trillions of becquerels per day still being emitted from Fukushima Daiichi Radioactive steam continues
(VIDEO)

Published: May 20th, 2012 at 12:12 pm ET
If You Love This Planet Radio


I would say there are billions, actually trillions, of becquerels per day being released airborne, mainly from Units 2 and 3.

Actually on cold nights you can still the steam coming off those reactors, its not just steam its radioactive steam.

Something on the order of trillions of becquerels per day trillions of disintegrations per second per day are being released even now.


Dr. Helen Caldicott: So what you%u2019re really saying Arnie Gundersen is that the ocean will continue to be contaminated, kind of for the rest of time. Because there%s no foreseeable way to prevent water leaking out of containment vessels continuously into the ocean We are talking about continual contamination of the Pacific Ocean.
532. xcool
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 4N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THE
WAVE IS HOWEVER VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION
Quoting K8eCane:Very Traumatic! Rip Current Almost Took My Mother Out To Sea Once. Lifeguard Saved Her. And Its Important To Realize You Can Be Fine And Having Fun One Minute And The Next Minute A Force Known As A Rip Current Has Total Control Of You
The fear of drowning kills more than any rip current. I tested myself beyond the surf zone and I found that my body floats in salt water. Without moving I can take a deep breath and float with my head above water. I think this partly depends on body type, but still most humans are very close to the density of ocean saltwater give or take. I know for me just so I do not panic and try to fight a strong current I can always just float and then take my time swimming parallel to the rip current, then back into shore on the return current.

If you panic and try to fight the current you will lose your breath and probably drown.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
PRE 94L in the GOH need to be watched as convection is growing plus the upperlevel anticyclone is now movin NE to honduras via CIMSS shear map causing shear to fall in the area 850 vort has grown in thearea as well with the 925 vort pressures have fallen plus Ascat plus Oscat and surface obs show the circulation is near to rotan honduras


I have to agree, if this trend continue, I suspect a 20% yellow circle in that area by 8 am tomorrow!
Eclipse is going to go down pretty soon here...my kids are outside with a camera thinking they're going to film it. I can't tell em anything because they know EVERYTHING. Tell em a thousand times not to look...but you know me, I'm STUPID. Better stay sober til after this thing goes down because I would hate to have to take em to the emergency room when I have had a few glasses of vino.

Perfectly clear day for it too. No overcast, stunning.

Happy day everyone.
Really hope we get a view of the eclipse here in Boulder, Colorado. Sun has been in in out and there is still a lot of clouds along the front range where the sun will set. The max here is at 7:30 local time only 20 minutes before sunset.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
PRE 94L in the GOH need to be watched as convection is growing plus the upperlevel anticyclone is now movin NE to honduras via CIMSS shear map causing shear to fall in the area. 850 vort has grown in the area as well with the 925 vort pressures have fallen. plus Ascat plus Oscat and surface obs show the circulation is near to rotan honduras
kid, it would be so much easier if you would find a full stop or capital letter here and there in your comments. As is, I'm having to read anything you post 3 or 4 times just to figure out what u r saying. [BTW, I put in some full stops in the quote. Did I get your meaning right?]

Now I know this is because I am an old fuddy duddy, but I'd bet there are a few other old fuddy duddies out there who are having the same problem.

I appreciate your enthusiasm, and I want to understand your information, but it's not working without any punctuation at all.
Looks like Alberto has crossed over from Georgia and into the Florida waters.
Alberto down to 40mph according to new ATCF update, pressure up to 1007mb.


Purple has expanded quite a bit from earlier!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Alberto down to 40mph according to new ATCF update, pressure up to 1007mb.

Sounds about right. Could see it make a return to 50 Mph tomorrow as it head off NE into the Gulf Stream again, but it has definetly peaked already.
94L, eh don't see much that'll come from it really, it resembles typical monsoonal development this time of year, that results in no formation of a Tropical Cyclone whatsoever.

92E, Should be renumbered later tonight or Tomorrow.
02E will likely become Bud and go on to possibly become a minimal hurricane before dying out.
Pressure down 1 millibar on 92E; maximum winds remain at 25 knots.

EP, 92, 2012052100, , BEST, 0, 93N, 992W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Dang! This economy is event hurting the virtual cookie business!

Quoting Ameister12:

Oh. That's a huge shame. =(
Alberto may be trying to fire up a little ball of convection near the center:



I would be expecting a renumber on 92E tonight:



I would also expect advisories to be initiated soon by the JTWC on 94W (that has to be a pinhole eye in the center of it)

Quoting stormpetrol:


Purple has expanded quite a bit from earlier!

Lol what's that little purple spot south of bermuda?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Sounds about right. Could see it make a return to 50 Mph tomorrow as it head off NE into the Gulf Stream again, but it has definetly peaked already.
94L, eh don't see much that'll come from it really, it resembles typical monsoonal development this time of year, that results in no formation of a Tropical Cyclone whatsoever.

92E, Should be renumbered later tonight or Tomorrow.
02E will likely become Bud and go on to possibly become a minimal hurricane before dying out.
Agreed. What's up Dean?
Quoting stormpetrol:


I have to agree, if this trend continue, I suspect a 20% yellow circle in that area by 8 am tomorrow!
Maybe 10% knowing the NHC.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Alberto may be trying to fire up a little ball of convection near the center:



I would be expecting a renumber on 92E tonight:



I would also expect advisories to be initiated soon by the JTWC on 94W


Tropics monster finally crawling out of his hibernation hole, and reclaiming Earth.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Purple has expanded quite a bit from earlier!


Good evening

I have to confess that the GOH area is starting to look mighty suspicious. There is some curvature/ banding to the cloud field over Roatan which suggests that the offshore convection may be building a low pressure center offshore and to the SE of the Cozumel area where the NHC have pegged the 1009 mb low for the past 12 hours or so.

When these persistent areas of convection hang around early in the season like this they can organize even in less than ideal conditions. Any motion to the ENE would effectively reduce the relative shear overhead.

It does bear watching.
Quoting nigel20:
Agreed. What's up Dean?

Not much =P


No pinhole eye but probably a tropical cyclone.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Alberto may be trying to fire up a little ball of convection near the center:



I would be expecting a renumber on 92E tonight:



I would also expect advisories to be initiated soon by the JTWC on 94W

3 tropical cyclones in 3 different basin active at the same time.Amazing!!!!
Quoting allancalderini:
3 tropical cyclones in 3 different basin active at the same time.Amazing!!!!

Not really...
It's happened many times before, even if it is in May, Guess more things impress you than me ;)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Lol what's that little purple spot south of bermuda?

500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
I have been pretty busy this weekend, so I haven't been able to post. Nice to see that our system formed off North/South Carolina yesterday. I pointed out on Friday that the more immediate area for tropical formation would be there, but I was wrong about the orientation of the development. I said it would happen from a retrograding low pressure area that split off from the huge trough to the east. Turns out that it actually formed under an upper low that moved offshore Friday night. Alberto is basically no threat and just a warm-up for the actual season. We need to start paying attention to the Western Caribbean as we head throughout the week. I'm not sure if anything will ever come of it, but the persistent area of low pressure in the area makes you wonder. Any movement into the Gulf would destroy it, though. So stationary or NE movement will have to happen to keep it alive any length of time.
Quoting yqt1001:


No pinhole eye but probably a tropical cyclone.


The GFS wants to make it a strong typhoon so it bears watching... It's in the middle of nowhere though
Looks like this is the first wave that emerges from Africa that isn't affected by shear....




Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like this is the first wave that emerges from Africa that isn't affected by shear....





There is an anticyclone associated with it.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is an anticyclone associated with it.


Could mean that it maybe a threat to aid in Monsoonal development down the road in the Southwest Caribbean.
Interesting if this verifies.
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Could mean that it maybe a threat to aid in Monsoonal development down the road in the Southwest Caribbean.

It is certainly a possibility. That is how Tropical Storm Arlene from last year formed, after all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is an anticyclone associated with it.

That's a nice looking Tropical wave
Both models develop another low ove Bahamas or E Florida....

Quoting kmanislander:


Good evening

I have to confess that the GOH area is starting to look mighty suspicious. There is some curvature/ banding to the cloud field over Roatan which suggests that the offshore convection may be building a low pressure center offshore and to the SE of the Cozumel area where the NHC have pegged the 1009 mb low for the past 12 hours or so.

When these persistent areas of convection hang around early in the season like this they can organize even in less than ideal conditions. Any motion to the ENE would effectively reduce the relative shear overhead.

It does bear watching.


Good to see you on, Kman. Definitely agree.
It would be awesome if that tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic managed to develop into a tropical storm.

A tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic in May.



Obviously that won't happen though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pressure down 1 millibar on 92E; maximum winds remain at 25 knots.

EP, 92, 2012052100, , BEST, 0, 93N, 992W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

It looks like they changed it; winds now at 30 knots
Quoting sunlinepr:
Both models develop another low ove Bahamas or E Florida....


Keep in mind that these are the most inaccurate models of the bunch.

P.S. The Ukmet is onboard as well with that scenario.
92E is the best looking Invest I have seen in a long time that isn't classified, though I suspect that will soon change!
Quoting kmanislander:


Good evening

I have to confess that the GOH area is starting to look mighty suspicious. There is some curvature/ banding to the cloud field over Roatan which suggests that the offshore convection may be building a low pressure center offshore and to the SE of the Cozumel area where the NHC have pegged the 1009 mb low for the past 12 hours or so.

When these persistent areas of convection hang around early in the season like this they can organize even in less than ideal conditions. Any motion to the ENE would effectively reduce the relative shear overhead.

It does bear watching.

Good evening, was kinda saying much the same earlier!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It looks like they changed it; winds now at 30 knots

You are correct.

EP, 92, 2012052100, , BEST, 0, 93N, 993W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ,
First time I have been here since 2011...Good to see (should I say old timers) Patrap, Baha, Kmain, etc. Has Tasman been here? Lots of action already!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It would be awesome if that tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic managed to develop into a tropical storm.

A tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic in May.



Obviously that won't happen though.

That would be a VERY BAD signal toward this season.
Storms that form in the sub-tropics in pre-season = No verification of a bad or good season
Storms that form in the caribbean and tropics of the Atlantic in pre-season = more active season
Storms that for in the Wide open(or east atlantic) in pre-season =
RUN FOR THE HILLS! HURRICANE SEASON 2012 COMING TO KILL EVERYONE... but of coarse, this is not the case :P
If anyone here lives on the west coast, can you please take pictures of the eclipse and post them? :)

I really wish I could see it, but I'm in New York state. :( The sun went down an hour ago.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It would be awesome if that tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic managed to develop into a tropical storm.

A tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic in May.



Obviously that won't happen though.
Maybe we'll get a storm like Alex in 2010 in the coming weeks
That's a pretty favorable environment for 92E

Quoting MississippiWx:


Good to see you on, Kman. Definitely agree.


This wet weather in the NW Caribbean washed out my golf game today :-(

Hopefully better news tomorrow as we have a public holiday here but looking very iffy right now.
Quoting centrfla:
First time I have been here since 2011...Good to see (should I say old timers) Patrap, Baha, Kmain, etc. Has Tasman been here? Lots of action already!

You forgot Levi, Cybr, and MH09. ;D
I guess them evil Climate scientists are good for something other then spreading lies about the planet getting heated up.....

Sarcastic comment aside, I think this is another good example of what goes up comes down. Even if the two points are a long ways apart.


Link

A Windborne Clue To A Mysterious Childhood Disease
.
.
.
Japanese researchers noticed a similar pattern. Together, they worked with a group of climate scientists who started to analyze atmospheric data.

What the climate researchers found was an association with the direction of wind circulating in the troposphere at heights of 3,000 meters, Burns says. When those wind currents blew in one direction, across Japan, then across the Pacific, to the West Coast and Hawaii, the number of U.S. cases increased. When the wind blew in the opposite direction, the number of cases fell.
.
.
I would watch Invest 92E closely (more so than we usually do for a named storm {when 92E is named}) for rapid intensification between 24-60 hours out.



SHIPS is giving 92E a 42% chance of undergoing rapid intensification for the 25 kt threshold. That's quite up there on the scale.

**GRAPHICS UPDATE**
(click to magnify graphics; graphics can further be magnified in Link window)
Seems we'll have Bud to track right behind Alberto. In fact, ever since the formation of Aletta, we've had a named storm to track every day.
I know I forgot HD07...but I'm an old timer myself and can't remember everybody;)lol
92E continues to organize this evening. We could see TD-2E as soon as 11pm and Bud by tomorrow.
Trying to remember the last TS that went North to South...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not really...
It's happened many times before, even if it is in May, Guess more things impress you than me ;)
Yeah I was going to say in May, so what would be a thing to impress you?
588. etxwx
Quoting winter123:
If anyone here lives on the west coast, can you please take pictures of the eclipse and post them? :)

I really wish I could see it, but I'm in New York state. :( The sun went down an hour ago.


Try http://www.chasertv.com/ Site has a couple cameras showing it. Click on videos and then "Charles Edwards".
Check out this picture of the eclipse posted on Facebook. Don't know where it was taken from though...

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Check out this picture of the eclipse posted on Facebook. Don't know where it was taken from though...



A sight like that only compares with watching the space shuttle launch from an airplane. :( I wish I had that luck!
Quoting kmanislander:


This wet weather in the NW Caribbean washed out my golf game today :-(

Hopefully better news tomorrow as we have a public holiday here but looking very iffy right now.


You can send it my way...I'm trying to fill up a lake I just built. :-)
Was awesome here as the Moon got 20 percent coverage as Sol Slipped under the Horizon over the Miss River.

Will upload later.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Check out this picture of the eclipse posted on Facebook. Don't know where it was taken from though...



spectacular!
Watch the Moon Shadow here Northeast Pacific - Visible Loop
Quoting Patrap:
Was awesome here as the Moon got 20 percent coverage as Sol Slipped under the Horizon over the Miss River.

Will upload later.


Yep with naked eye which is the first for me, only 1 damn hour late due to the sun going under horizon
Just made a very fast-typed blog entry.
If you want to check it out:
Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Seasons get a head start to kickoff
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Check out this picture of the eclipse posted on Facebook. Don't know where it was taken from though...


O_O Incredible...
The ATCF file just updated. If I am not wrong, we now have Tropical Depression Two-E.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ATCF file just updated. If I am not wrong, we now have Tropical Depression Two-E.



you are correct!

EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO EP022012 05/21/12 00 UTC *
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep022012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205210143
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


Moon Shadow
Quoting MrMarcus:
Trying to remember the last TS that went North to South...
Last year's B storm?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Last year's B storm?

Bret...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep022012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205210143
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP



not evere year we get two storms in may in the E pac
We have two-E finally. Mexico better watch this one.
Tropical Depression Two-E.

Texas eclipses

The best solar eclipse you can see in Texas will be the total eclipse of the sun April 8, 2024. Late that morning, Dallas, Tyler, Waco, Austin and the eastern suburbs of San Antonio will see a total eclipse. In Houston, this eclipse will be only partial, but of course you'll take the day off and drive to the path of totality.

In case you don't want to wait that long, here's a digest of solar eclipses in Texas that you can see sooner:


October 23, 2014, all of Texas will see a partial solar eclipse in late afternoon. About 40% of the sun will be covered at mid-eclipse.

August 21, 2017 will be the first total eclipse of the sun in the United States in the Twenty-first Century. The nearest place that will see totality is Missouri, but all of Texas sees a partial eclipse that afternoon. 70% of the sun will be covered at Houston.

October 14, 2023, an annular eclipse of the sun narrowly misses Houston. Corpus Christi and San Antonio will be directly in the path. Houston once again sees a deep partial eclipse.

The next total solar eclipse at Houston itself will not be until the end of the Twenty-second Century, April 14, 2200... We'll all be dead, sorry
Geoff, that whole area looks... off... like there are wheels in the middle of wheels....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


could be a dangerous storm for Mexico
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Depression Two-E.

Hey TA. What's your forecast for TD two-E?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

That would be a VERY BAD signal toward this season.
Storms that form in the sub-tropics in pre-season = No verification of a bad or good season
Storms that form in the caribbean and tropics of the Atlantic in pre-season = more active season
Storms that for in the Wide open(or east atlantic) in pre-season =
RUN FOR THE HILLS! HURRICANE SEASON 2012 COMING TO KILL EVERYONE... but of coarse, this is not the case :P


Well we all know that a category 5 hurricane the size of Typhoon Tip will move across the US at 3 MPH and fail to weaken until it reaches Los Angeles to Tokyo on December 21st, 2012. If this happened it would be a precursor of things to come! :)
Quoting nigel20:
Hey TA. What's your forecast for TD two-2?

Intensity wise, track wise, or both?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Texas eclipses

The best solar eclipse you can see in Texas will be the total eclipse of the sun April 8, 2024. Late that morning, Dallas, Tyler, Waco, Austin and the eastern suburbs of San Antonio will see a total eclipse. In Houston, this eclipse will be only partial, but of course you'll take the day off and drive to the path of totality.

In case you don't want to wait that long, here's a digest of solar eclipses in Texas that you can see sooner:


October 23, 2014, all of Texas will see a partial solar eclipse in late afternoon. About 40% of the sun will be covered at mid-eclipse.

August 21, 2017 will be the first total eclipse of the sun in the United States in the Twenty-first Century. The nearest place that will see totality is Missouri, but all of Texas sees a partial eclipse that afternoon. 70% of the sun will be covered at Houston.

October 14, 2023, an annular eclipse of the sun narrowly misses Houston. Corpus Christi and San Antonio will be directly in the path. Houston once again sees a deep partial eclipse.

The next total solar eclipse at Houston itself will not be until the end of the Twenty-second Century, April 14, 2200... We'll all be dead, sorry


Alright 2023...11.5 years from now. You're welcome to visit good old San Antonio.
619. j2008
You guys have way better pics of the eclipse than I do, I couldnt capture it correctly. I see while I was away capturing it that we got TD 2.
td 2e will be anywhere from a cat 1 to a cat 4 as there is very low wind shear and very hot water when it starts to make that north turn. very bad news for mexico.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Intensity wise, track wise, or both?
Both...TIA
Quoting nigel20:
Both...TIA

I think that it will gradually strengthen over the next 2 days as it moves southwest and the northwest and north as it begins to feel the effects of a trough across the US Central Plains. Between days 2-4, a period of rapid intensification may ensue once the storm builds an eyewall. Wind shear is forecast to be below 10 knots in a high moisture environment with Ocean Heat Content values above 70. A peak as an upper-end Category 1 to upper-end Category 2 is possible. It will make landfall on the Mexican coastline sometime on Friday and rapidly weaken once inland.
Alberto definitely moving due South now. And a new burst of convection right over the center. He's not dead yet.
Shortwave loop

Sunset with Partial Solar Annular Eclipse, Miss River near Audubon Park, NOLA

Here's my map for Bud/2E:

I found out!

Since the season of 1984 there were no two named storms in May.
Those were

TS Alma (That name was retired in 2008)
Hurricane Boris

Neither caused any type of damage

since 1984 (28 years ago!)
Sucks, had to go 100 miles up over my house to see the actual ring of fire
Quoting Patrap:
Sunset with Partial Solar Annular Eclipse, Miss River near Audubon Park, NOLA

Very nice!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Keep in mind that these are the most inaccurate models of the bunch.

P.S. The Ukmet is onboard as well with that scenario.


actually the CMC was the only model that correctly had the low at SC..every other model was either at the outerbanks or farther east
The naked low level swirl made landfall near Norfolk.


Alberto is definitely moving SSE now. But I have this feeling it will be too weak to make the connection with the upcoming front.


Quoting RitaEvac:
2017 eclipse path on google maps




that's the big one Im waiting for...I live near NYC
And here's Alberto:


down to 949 mb but the winds aren't up much... I know it's overdone
Quoting winter123:
The naked low level swirl made landfall near Norfolk.


Alberto is definitely moving SSE now. But I have this feeling it will be too weak to make the connection with the upcoming front.




Alberto's convection is wrapping around the other side now... Maybe it'll strengthen again.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Check out this picture of the eclipse posted on Facebook. Don't know where it was taken from though...



Look how beautiful it looks with the galactic plain... Simply amazing
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Here's my map for Bud/2E:


No, It'll weaken as it head north into Mexico due to the Sub-tropical Jet and shear.
639. j2008
Wrote my second blog about the eclipse and 2E. Cheak it out and leave some feedback if you can. It would be much appriciated. Thanks. Link
Quoting Patrap:

People in Jacksonville = O_O
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's the big one Im waiting for...I live near NYC


I'll have 65% covered, anytime you get over half of the sun out, is a huge deal
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No, It'll weaken as it head north into Mexico due to the Sub-tropical Jet and shear.


I was going to have it weaken, but I didn't add another forecast point or more to the cone. I will though tomorrow afternoon.
Quoting Patrap:


This is amazing, a Tropical Storm off my beach tomorrow and it won't even seem like there's anything there, that's how small Alberto is. Such an awesome storm to track despite how weak it is.
Quoting Patrap:
Sunset with Partial Solar Annular Eclipse, Miss River near Audubon Park, NOLA



That's a good shot.

There will also be a total eclipse April 2024 It will be approx from Del Rio to Montreal.
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 99.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
dangerous path
Alberto is really an interesting storm, an awesome first storm of the season. The fact a Tropical Storm will spinning 50 miles to my NE is amazing, and it's clear outside. Throw out the NHC forecast, this should continue it's southward drift, potentially reaching off of Flagler Beach/Daytona Beach tomorrow afternoon.
Alberto just 85 miles off of St. Johns County...St. Augustine
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's the big one Im waiting for...I live near NYC


That's gonna be insane, can't wait
With MJO entering the Carribean Basin, conditions will become more favorable for development if a new 1010mb Low forms in the GOH over the next 48-72 hours.Also upper level high presently over Central America needs to expand NEward to assist in the development.
651. j2008
Alberto down to 40 MPH pressure at 1007. Even TD 2 has a lower pressure. LOL thats sad.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irma
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney


Storm names for 2017 when we get a nice solar eclipse again
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
dangerous path
Oh my!
Quoting weatherh98:


That's gonna be insane, can't wait


71% blocked out in NYC, mind as well call in sick that day
Quoting RitaEvac:


I'll have 65% covered, anytime you get over half of the sun out, is a huge deal


How do u know
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Here's my map for Bud/2E:

Calling for a Cat. 2 Hurricane?
Quoting RitaEvac:


71% blocked out in NYC, mind as well call in sick that day


What about Nola, I don't know where I'll be or what I'll be doing but I'll try I see it
Quoting weatherh98:


How do u know


See quote 629
Everyone have a goodnight!
Quoting RitaEvac:


See quote 629


Wow 81% thanks rita!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST May 21 2012
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 11.0N 148.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.
Quoting fmhurricane2009:
Alberto just 85 miles off of St. Johns County...St. Augustine


Yeah, tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 300 meters from the center of circulation.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Everyone have a goodnight!


You too!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Everyone have a goodnight!
Same to you petrol!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Calling for a Cat. 2 Hurricane?


Yep, that's what I think Bud will make it to. The majority of the intensity models have Cat 1 at least.
right see ya in the morn petrol
Flagler Beach...lol.
The first of many to head there or LI.
This one is looping southeast though and heading back NE. It does still have a shot at Mastic Beach I guess.


Alberto actually is doing quite well considering it is just after DMIN...
18z HWRF model calling for TD 2-E to become a Cat. 3 Hurricane with max winds of 111 knots and a pressure around 960 mb.




Quoting CosmicEvents:
Flagler Beach...lol.
The first of many to head there or LI.
This one is looping southeast though and heading back NE. It does still have a shot at Mastic Beach I guess.


Cut the BS Cosmic, I never predicted Alberto to come here, or become a Hurricane.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Calling for a Cat. 2 Hurricane?


Only another 5mph above the official forecast, very possible.

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
My thoughts on TD-2:

Should strengthen to a strong TS before it reaches the RI favourable conditions. Might be able to make it to category 2 strength, maybe 3, we'll see, but it won't be at peak intensity on landfall like the NHC is saying.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Only another 5mph above the official forecast, very possible.

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.


I released my forecast and map before the NHC did, and we are both in good agreement on intensity and track!
Alberto got more south due to the lack of convection. The mid latitude winds now favor the U-turn. It's already moved east .05º in the last 3hrs. It was still trucking south kinda following the coast but then it put out a good puff of convection... When the scene goes curved Band he tends more east & this last time stopped moving south in the last hour. Shear again & a big wobble S & W. Point is he shouldn't out run the loop unless he tries to run away naked & stays in the shallow steering influences.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

You forgot Levi, Cybr, and MH09. ;D

And i'm a new member here. Good to meet you! Quite the early start to the season. It will be interesting to see what the rest of it has in store for us.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I released my forecast and map before the NHC did, and we are both in good agreement on intensity and track!


Well, at least the NHC is in agreement with your forecast.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
18z HWRF model calling for TD 2-E to become a Cat. 3 Hurricane with max winds of 111 knots and a pressure around 960 mb.






Reduction of
flight-level winds:
700 mb => 90%
850 mb => 80%
925 mb => 75%
1000 ft => 80%
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Alberto actually is doing quite well considering it is just after DMIN...


Yes quite right
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Well, at least the NHC is in agreement with your forecast.


I had low end cat 2... it has high end cat 1. Pretty close, we shall see who is right. I bank on RI being a big factor.
680. j2008
Quoting lobdelse81:

And i'm a new member here. Good to meet you! Quite the early start to the season. It will be interesting to see what the rest of it has in store for us.
Welcome, glad you decided to stop on in.
Watch the "healty" condition of Reactor no. 4.... It holds 1500 spent fuel rods in a pond or pool suspended 100 feet in air on the fifth floor....

The only way to access it according with Dr. Michio Kaku:

Humans cannot come close to certain parts of the reactor site and even robots get fried. They’re delicate machinery; their micro-circuitry cannot withstand the intense bombardment of radiation of thousands of rads of radiation per hour being registered there and that is affecting the cleanup operation.

“It will take years to invent a new generation of robots” able to withstand the radiation.

The workers are like Samurai warriors, they’re like suicide workers. They know they are getting huge amounts of radiation going to the site. They can only go in, seconds to minutes, at a time doing work and then the next batch has to come in. Chernobyl had a half a million workers who worked minutes at a time.



TD-2 is one of the southern tropical cyclones I have seen on that basin.
**11:00PM ADVISORIES**
(click to magnify graphics; graphics can further be magnified in Link window)

685. j2008
Since I havnt seen this posted yet. I think they are underplaying the intensification. I'm thinking high end Cat 2 at landfall at least.
TRMM pass of Alberto..click on pic for movie. Small tight core. You can see at the time it was putting off a puff of convection & that little bit reaches into the Mid layer. Most of the rest of the storm is pretty shallow.
682:

That's a shame. Dr. Kaku said 30 years to clean that mess up.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I had low end cat 2... it has high end cat 1. Pretty close, we shall see who is right. I bank on RI being a big factor.



The difference between 90mph and 95mph is highly irrelevant.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Watch the "healty" condition of Reactor no. 4.... It holds 1500 spent fuel rods in a pond or pool suspended 100 feet in air on the fifth floor....

The only way to access it according with Dr. Michio Kaku:

Humans cannot come close to certain parts of the reactor site and even robots get fried. They’re delicate machinery; their micro-circuitry cannot withstand the intense bombardment of radiation of thousands of rads of radiation per hour being registered there and that is affecting the cleanup operation.

“It will take years to invent a new generation of robots” able to withstand the radiation.

The workers are like Samurai warriors, they’re like suicide workers. They know they are getting huge amounts of radiation going to the site. They can only go in, seconds to minutes, at a time doing work and then the next batch has to come in. Chernobyl had a half a million workers who worked minutes at a time.





Good night fellow bloggers!
687 RTSplayer: That's a shame. Dr. Kaku said 30 years to clean that mess up.

Shame that he's as optimistic as the Japanese government, which is kinda known for puttin' on the smiley face.
They're still talking about getting Chernobyl under "SafeConfinement" 26years after the fact.
And SafeConfinement ain't nothin' like cleaning up the mess.
Quoting Skyepony:
TRMM pass of Alberto..click on pic for movie. Small tight core. You can see at the time it was putting off a puff of convection & that little bit reaches into the Mid layer. Most of the rest of the storm is pretty shallow.


I thought we were about to lose TRMM (age) and that there were no backups in sight to this particular satellite's mission.

btw - glad you are watching TRMM too.
694. j2008
I'm out everyone. I'll be back tomorrow afternoon. Keep an eye on 2 and Alberto for me.
Quoting aspectre:
687 RTSplayer: T
They're still talking about getting Chernobyl under "SafeConfinement" 26years after the fact.
And SafeConfinement ain't nothin' like cleaning up the mess.





There will be a new confinement over the existing and unsafe sarcophagus of the reactor #4 - it's an international project called NOVARKA (new arch). The new arch will be the biggest construction of that kind in the world. The works slowed down now as when digging the basement they reached the dirty level which still gives too much radiation and what was not taken to the consideration when they were planning a time schedule for the project.
Quoting docrod:


I thought we were about to lose TRMM (age) and that there were no backups in sight to this particular satellite's mission.

btw - glad you are watching TRMM too.


Windsat was limping along & looks to be down. They got Cloudsat back up, though limited pass area so it runs more on sun than batteries. Caught the trough over Honduras lastnight.
Decent convection on TD-2E.

11:00 PM EDT Sun May 20
Location: 30.5°N 80.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: S at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb still a tropical storm
Good evening everyone. I just wrote a blog post on both Tropical Storm Alberto and recently classified TD 2E. I discuss both track and intensity forecasts for both systems.

For those interested: Link
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormAlberto for 21May12amGMT:
MinimumPressure has been re-evaluated&altered for
31.1n79.9w from 1004 to 1005
Its ATCF position was 30.7n80.1w
Its vector has changed from SWest at ~9.1mph(15k/h) to SSWest at ~5mph(8k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have decreased from ~40knots(46mph)74k/h to ~35knots(40mph)65k/h
And minimum pressure has increased from 1005millibars to 1007millibars

It's reached warm enough waters, so DiurnalMaximum oughtta be interesting

For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
KEVB is NewSmyrnaBeach . UST is St.Augustine,Florida . X26 is Sebastion,Florida

The northeasternmost dot on the map's top edge is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The northernmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position
The longest line-segment is a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to the coastline

The 08GA dumbbell is the endpoint of its previous 20May12pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport, SapeloIsland.
The UST dumbbell is the endpoint of its previous 20May6pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport, St.Augustine.
On 21May12amGMT, TSAlberto was headed toward passing over NewSmyrnaBeach
in ~20hours from now

Copy&paste x26, kevb, ust-29.728n81.235w, jax, fhb, 08ga-31.345n81.284w, svn, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 31.8n78.7w-31.7n79.3w, 31.7n79.3w-31.1n79.9w, 31.1n79.9w-30.7n80.1w, 31.1n79.9w-29.055n80.904w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 300 meters from the center of circulation.

I got a giggle out of this. Up here in Bluffton, SC we've had a pretty good breeze all day. It's the funny thing about these early-season fluffies...
wow look at the red east of the tropical storm!!
It still looks like the center of TD 2E is displaced to the east of the deepest convection:

For all you late night bloggers...lurkers...I did a special update on Alberto....news is underwhelming and probably not that interesting though....
Good night all.
Alberto has/is really trying to fire some convection for the past couple hours. All it needs to do is get a bit going so it can control the amount of dry air its ingesting.
The storm that wasn't.
Perfect timing.

Alberto's persistence is pretty epic, but I have a question:

How many Albertos can you fit into TD2-E?
While I am on space lets play a little game. What hurricane is this? Picture from ISS.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
While I am on space lets play a little game. What hurricane is this? Picture from ISS.


Ivan.
Just did a late night blog entry on Alberto and TD Two-E. I'm more concerned about 2E. Alberto is laughable.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
It still looks like the center of TD 2E is displaced to the east of the deepest convection:



Yep.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ivan.
That was fast. No where near as fun as the math problem :D. Anyway goodnight everyone.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That was fast. No where near as fun as the math problem :D. Anyway goodnight everyone.


Didn't help that you failed to change the URL >_>
damn do anybody think that TD #2 in the pacific has somewhat of a way to reach the Gulf. What ever is left of it after it hits mexico
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormAlberto for 21May6amGMT:
Its ATCF position was 30.7n80.1w
Its vector has changed from SSWest at ~5mph(8k/h) to SSEast at ~3.9mph(6.3k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at ~35knots(40mph)65k/h
And minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars

It's reached warm enough waters for DiurnalMaximum to be interesting

For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
UST is St.Augustine . KEVB is NewSmyrnaBeach . TCB is TreasureCay,AbacoIslands

The northeasternmost connected dot is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The northernmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position

The longest line-segment is a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to the coastline
The UST dumbbell is the endpoint of its previous 20May6pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport, St.Augustine.
The KEVB blob is the endpoint of its previous 21May12amGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport, NewSmyrnaBeach.
On 21May6amGMT, TSAlberto was headed toward passing over LittleAbacoIsland,Bahamas
in ~2days20hours from now

Copy&paste tcb, x26, kevb-29.055n80.904w, ust-29.728n81.235w, jax, fhb, 08ga, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 31.8n78.7w-31.7n79.3w, 31.7n79.3w-31.1n79.9w, 31.1n79.9w-30.7n80.1w, 30.7n80.1w-30.4n79.9w, 30.7n80.1w-26.899n77.668w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
710 LostTomorrows: Alberto's persistence is pretty epic, but I have a question:
How many Albertos can you fit into TD2-E?


None. Come close enough to hitting my limit just fitting a heavy-duty air-conditioner into a window.
720. emguy
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That was fast. No where near as fun as the math problem :D. Anyway goodnight everyone.


I don't trust the West Carribean right now.
Morning all...



TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM
IS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE
THAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE
GULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS
AND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...NEARLY COMPLETING THE ANTICIPATED
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TODAY AS AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TAKING THE COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE...OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COASTLINE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 30.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 30.6N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 31.8N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 33.5N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210850
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION HAS PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WHILE A
NEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE LARGE DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.

GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE EASTERLY
SHEAR...STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE GRADUAL.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS SHOWN
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/6. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE 72-120 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE RECURVING. OVERALL...THE 0000 UTC MODEL
RUNS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET MODELS
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND LIES ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 9.4N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 9.7N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Alberto



TD 2-E



The disturbance in the Gulf of Honduras area of the WCar continues to look interesting.




THIS area east of the Bahamas has been getting a purple mark on formation potential maps over the last 24 hours.



[Right now I'm just glad it's not raining on me.... lol]

I gotta run, but it sure looks like today will be a lot more interesting in the TC-watching community than one has any right to expect on 21st May....

BTW, I didn't pull down any info / imagery for the WPac AOI. I'm sure someone can hit the JWTC and post it.

I gotta run, but will try to stick my head around the door later this a.m.

Ya'll have fun, now...
Maybe we get to C or D in May!?!

94W is now TD 03W.

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.3N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.4N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 29.6N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 145.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 201951Z MAY 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 202000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN


Morning everyone... It appears the rapid organization of TD2 E we saw yesterday has stopped as it has not become any better organized:



Mexico should be on guard with this one for sure

Meanwhile, TD3 W formed in the West Pac last night and is forecast to reach near typhoon status. It is not a threat to land though.

Good Morning everyone!..what are the chances of that soon to be hurricane in the pacific,crossing Mexico and linking up with all that convection in the western Carribean? then heading northward into the warm 80 degree gulf waters?
WRC’s 2012 Hurricane Season Outlook Indicates the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana to Key West, Florida and the Georgia to North Carolina
Coast Have the Highest Risk of a Tropical Cyclone Landfall
Houston, TX – Weather Research Center (WRC) in Houston is forecasting a 60
percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast
from Louisiana to Key West, Florida and along the Georgia to North Carolina coast
during the 2012 hurricane season. The secondary predictors in the index call for at least
8 named storms with 5 of them intensifying into hurricanes. There is a 46 percent
chance a Category 3 or stronger hurricane will form in the Atlantic as well as a high
chance that 3 more tropical storms or hurricanes will make landfall somewhere along
the U.S. Coast.
2012 WRC OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY
Texas 30% 51%
Mexico 20% 40%
Louisiana to Alabama 60% 59%
West Florida 60% 71%
East Florida 30% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 60% 56%
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
going to be an interesting june i bet for us here along the gulf coasts
Forgive me for being a bit cynical...
Good Morning
froAs of May 3rd, the little 'counter' in the upper right corner of the page indicates that it has been 2,383 days since a Hurricane last made landfall in the Sunshine State. That event was on October 24, 2005, when Hurricane Wilma crossed over the southern tip of the peninsula from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic with landfall near Cape Romano. Since then, 42 hurricanes have entered the record books - but not a single one has made landfall in Florida.

A check of the weather records indicate that it is indeed very unusual for Florida to go for such a long time (over six years) without a hurricane impact. This current stretch is the second longest period of time since 1851 without a hurricane hitting the state. The longest period without a hurricane in Florida was from August 31, 1856, to October 23, 1865 - a period of 3,299 days (over nine years) - but that record may not be accurate since the population of Florida was rather sparce in the 1850s and 1860s (and the 1870s as well), and a hurricane could have made landfall in an unpopulated area (hence no known records of such an event).

Here are the other long intervals without a Hurricane in Florida:

October 18, 1910 to August 1, 1915 - 1,747 days
October 16, 1999 to August 13, 2004 - 1,762 days
October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days
September 4, 1979 to November 20, 1985 - 2,269 days
October 24, 2005 to ??? (as of May 3rd - 2,383 days and counting)

A Hurricane has hit Florida in 44% of the seasons since 1851 - for an average of 11 landfalling hurricanes every 25 years. The latest ENSO climatology update through April suggests that 1951, 1968, 2009, 2006 and 1976 are the best analog years for this season. Interesting that only one of those years (1968) had a hurricane (Gladys) that hit Florida.
EDm Ed Durhams page..interesting....................
Good morning, all. Wow, Alberto has the room alive again. I always peek in here in the mornings and occasionally will leave a 'hello', but normally no one is here. So nice to see people! Hope everyone has a wonderful Monday!
Good Morning..00Z CMC more westward track of the caribbean disturbance bringing it into the bahamas





Cmc has beryl


NGp has a week low..


Those are the only ones on the fsu website that has it
Turns out that this image supposedly taken from the ISS is fake, I apologize, was duped a well....



That is some really good Photoshopping though!
A big heatup is expected for the eastern 2/3 of the US next week:

hot

Not as hot for the 8-14 day period, but still nicely above norman:

hot

Nice image of TS Alberto.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
726 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

NJC023-025-211530-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0010.120521T1126Z-120521T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MIDDLESEX NJ-MONMOUTH NJ-
726 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 723 AM EDT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MONMOUTH COUNTY FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS BAND IS SLOWLY EDGING TO THE NORTH BUT
EXTENDED ABOUT 100 MILES OFFSHORE. ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED ONE INCH IN EASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO LIKELY BY NOON. THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 7403 4009 7408 4013 7411 4010 7415
4011 7423 4017 7426 4017 7431 4035 7463
4042 7459 4049 7446 4054 7451 4059 7450
4060 7422 4056 7420 4054 7424 4047 7425
4042 7403 4048 7402 4045 7398 4029 7397

$$

TFG
Good morning all.

This will be nearing hurricane status tomorrow night and Category 2+ status Wednesday night. I am very concerned that the system will undergo rapid intensification someitme over the next three days, and the Mexican coastline needs to start preparing now.



I don't have time for a blog, but I will update my forecast intensities.

INIT 21/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND


That surface low is now almost directly overhead!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Turns out that this image supposedly taken from the ISS is fake, I apologize, was duped a well....

That is some really good Photoshopping though!
Yeah, the shadow was much too small and far too distinct, among other giveaways.

Here's a link to a real series of satellite images showing the penumbral shadow crossing the Pacific: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/05/solar-eclip se-from-space.html
Our next AOI? Conditions will be favorable for development of this next this week. The NOGAPS and other models all want to develop something in this area and move it over Western Cuba, South Florida and into the Northern Bahamas. With an upswing in the MJO it is very possible. Shear should also lessen as the week progresses.

Does anyone has a graphic of the Mexican coast that has the cities? I am very interested because a cruise ship (Millenniun) will make a stop in Puerto Vallarta on Thursday.

Link
I'll admit, this area is getting interesting.

E-PAC TD2 seems to be going for about 500,000+ people and some resorts.
Bears watching.
Low pressure near Bermuda, low pressure north of Honduras, a tropical wave off Africa, and a tropical storm in both basins.

You can get a lot from a basic map like this. :P

How sad...Robin Gibb has passed away. We have lost a lot of great performers this year.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has a graphic of the Mexican coast that has the cities? I am very interested because a cruise ship (Millenniun) will make a stop in Puerto Vallarta on Thursday.

Link


Puerto Vallarta is on the bottom of this map





There definitely is some form of circulation around the GOH. It is very overcast and rainy here agoain this morning. Winds have been 25-35 mph.
Maybe wunderkidcayman will get his storm after all....
Quoting Grothar:


Puerto Vallarta is on the bottom of this map



Thank you Gro. Hopefully,the ship avoids this but even if it does,big waves will impact it.
Quoting Neapolitan:
A big heatup is expected for the eastern 2/3 of the US next week:

hot

Not as hot for the 8-14 day period, but still nicely above norman:

hot



Geez Louise, it's gonna be 97 degrees here in Memphis on Thursday!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe wunderkidcayman will get his storm after all....
If he has any say in the matter he will. I hope not LOL.
Good morning all looks like PRE 94L won't be PRE soon
yes washingtonian115 I told you so didn't I
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If he has any say in the matter he will. I hope not LOL.

I heard that


Well, well, well, what do we have here? Is this the verification of the GFS/ 94L or just another blob that won't develop?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I heard that
LOL. You know I am just joking. You getting much rain in WB ? Pouring up here with winds 20-35 mph. It's great.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning all looks like PRE 94L won't be PRE soon
yes washingtonian115 I told you so didn't I


Way to stay persistent!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I heard that


I noticed the L is gone from the map this morning!

pouring in prospect
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well, well, well, what do we have here? Is this the verification of the GFS/ 94L or just another blob that won't develop?


Already has more convection then Alberto.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. You know I am just joking. You getting much rain in WB ? Pouring up here with winds 20-35 mph. It's great.

pouring up here too winds around 15-20mph

Quoting stormpetrol:


I noticed the L is gone from the map this morning!



should return shortly

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Low pressure near Bermuda, low pressure north of Honduras, a tropical wave off Africa, and a tropical storm in both basins.

You can get a lot from a basic map like this. :P

This May has been interesting in both Basins.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Already has more convection then Alberto.

lol true
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I heard that


LOL. It's OK kid, when they tease you, they like you. It's when they ignore you that you have to worry.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Already has more convection then Alberto.


According to Henry Margusity, Alberto is the size of Rhode Island... That's pretty small!
And a good summertime thunderstorm in my area has more convection than him too.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
pouring in prospect
In East End too and winds are now 30-35 mph.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well, well, well, what do we have here? Is this the verification of the GFS/ 94L or just another blob that won't develop?


The NOGAPS, CMC and a few others are calling for development, but with different timing of development. If anything develops it will most likely be at the end of the week.
Quoting Grothar:


The NOGAPS, CMC and a few others are calling for development, but with different timing of development. If anything develops it will most likely be at the end of the week.
yeah saw that!
Quoting Grothar:


The NOGAPS, CMC and a few others are calling for development, but with different timing of development. If anything develops it will most likely be at the end of the week.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
In East End too and winds are now 30-35 mph.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
In East End too and winds are now 30-35 mph.


If a System does form, it will be a large one....
wow if shear is expected to be this low in the GOH and W caribin 48 hours we very well may get TS Beryl at maybe 50-70mph maybe higher I am not saying that it will happen but it may happen
Raining here non stop in South Sound since around 4am.
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. It's OK kid, when they tease you, they like you. It's when they ignore you that you have to worry.

I know


Quoting BrickellBreeze:


If a System does form, it will be a large one....

or maybe a meduem one
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
In East End too and winds are now 30-35 mph.


Good morning

Very heavy rain in South Sound. 2.5 inches since midnight and climbing quickly now
wind shear is nearly 10kt in the GOH
UK Met has the caribbean/bahamas storm as well..




Link

Nasty day downtown, Grand Cayman. You can hardly see the cruiseship for the rain.
Vorticity in the GOH is way up now as well. If shear eases off it would not take long for this feature to spin up
just realised right now we have a whole lot of Caymanian blogger on now
so hello fello Caymanian blogger how are you doin so enjoying the public holiday
Quoting WxGeekVA:
GEE SOMETHING IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE IT WANTS TO DEVELOP
Near Galveston TX last evening



Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow if shear is expected to be this low in the GOH and W caribin 48 hours we very well may get TS Beryl at maybe 50-70mph maybe higher I am not saying that it will happen but it may happen

This is 240hr ECMWF. Long way out but the ECMWF did predict Alberto.

Quoting kmanislander:
Vorticity in the GOH is way up now as well. If shear eases off it would not take long for this feature to spin up


Whatever Develops, when it eventually moves north into Cuba, Bahamas, South Florida (?) will have to fight high shear, dry air, and land.

So I'm assuming the intensity it may reach in the general safety of the Carribean, will be it's peak.

What's your thought on track?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has a graphic of the Mexican coast that has the cities? I am very interested because a cruise ship (Millenniun) will make a stop in Puerto Vallarta on Thursday.

Link


Mexico Radars.

trock wise for PRE 94L I'll say is tracking NE toward Cayman Cuba NW Bahamas/SE Florida
Quoting AussieStorm:


Mexico Radars.



Hi Aussie. Is on the Pacific Mexican coast,but Grothar posted a good graphic.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wind shear is nearly 10kt in the GOH


Where do you see that? I see 20-40kt in the GoH. The map you posted is m/s.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Mexico Radars.


that id for belize not mexico
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Aussie. Is on the Pacific Mexican coast,but Grothar posted a good graphic.

Yeah I know. I was just giving the Radars for Mexico.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
trock wise for PRE 94L I'll say is tracking NE toward Cayman Cuba NW Bahamas/SE Florida

How can you estimate track on something that hasn't formed?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

that id for belize not mexico

Click the link that says, Mexico Radars
Click the Belize Radar to go to the page, Link is inbed.
Quoting jeffs713:

How can you estimate track on something that hasn't formed?

you beat me to that question. Maybe showing on models.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

Very heavy rain in South Sound. 2.5 inches since midnight and climbing quickly now
No golf for you again today LOL. It is dark and very rainy up here with winds between 30-35 mph. IDK if anything will develop but we sure needed this rain.
Quoting jeffs713:


Where do you see that? I see 20-40kt in the GoH. The map you posted is m/s.


first I said is nearly not that it is
second from this you can see that 10kt line just on the honduras belize coast and its moving N and E by the way this is the 12Z map
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Whatever Develops, when it eventually moves north into Cuba, Bahamas, South Florida (?) will have to fight high shear, dry air, and land.

So I'm assuming the intensity it may reach in the general safety of the Carribean, will be it's peak.

What's your thought on track?


Cannot say. We have to wait and see if anything forms first as the conditions prevailing at that time will determine intensity and track
Just took a drive downtown, Grand Cayman . IMO they need to get that cruiseship out of port, it is also unsafe to load and unload passengers in this type of weather. There is also small ocean swells on that side, typically not seen with just rainy weather!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No golf for you again today LOL. It is dark and very rainy up here with winds between 30-35 mph. IDK if anything will develop but we sure needed this rain.


Yeah, a real bummer :-(

Dead calm here and rain measurement now close to 4 inches since midnight
Quoting kmanislander:


Cannot say. We have to wait and see if anything forms first as the conditions prevailing at that time will determine intensity and track


The government is watching it here in the states

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No golf for you again today LOL. It is dark and very rainy up here with winds between 30-35 mph. IDK if anything will develop but we sure needed this rain.


Just started gusting to 19 mph and steady out of the East around 12
Quoting RitaEvac:


The government is watching it here in the states



LOL. They may have something to watch for real if this continues to sit and stew
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


first I said is nearly not that it is
second from this you can see that 10kt line just on the honduras belize coast and its moving N and E by the way this is the 12Z map


Oh, you mean the place that doesn't have any convection, and isn't even in the yellow area of 850mb vort?

Shear is best judged by the CENTER of any circulation. By your own posted map, that would mean 20-30kt.
Alberto has blown some of the deepest convection in it's lifetime just now.. It's all because it's in warmer waters but it is fighting wind shear of 20-30 knots. It's so cool to know a Tropical Storm is sitting off my beach, just about 100 miles northeast of me, and it's beautiful outside, no wind, clear skies.. This is how remarkably small Alberto is, similar to Marco in 2008.

Quoting jeffs713:


Oh, you mean the place that doesn't have any convection, and isn't even in the yellow area of 850mb vort?

Shear is best judged by the CENTER of any circulation. By your own posted map, that would mean 20-30kt.


Shear is 20 to 30 knots. That small pocket near the coast has been like that for several days.
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL. They may have something to watch for real if this continues to sit and stew
The weather station at Sunset House is showing 4.16" of rain today so far and winds up to 22 mph.
Quoting reedzone:
Alberto has blown some of the deepest convection in it's lifetime just now.. It's all because it's in warmer waters but it is fighting wind shear of 20-30 knots. It's so cool to know a Tropical Storm is sitting off my beach, just about 50 miles northeast of me, and it's beautiful outside, no wind, clear skies.. This is how remarkably small Alberto is, similar to Marco in 2008.


Yep. I've seen bigger masses of clouds in an MCS.
Good morning all...it's a fairly active day in thd tropics...two TDs and one TS
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The weather station at Sunset House is showing 4.16" of rain today so far and winds up to 22 mph.


I am inland so calmer here between 7 and 15 mph
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. I've seen bigger masses of clouds in an MCS.


Still a very impressive system, and for the first storm.

- Formed before June 1st (May 19, 2012)
- Peaked 60 mph (6:30 p.m. Saturday
- Smallest TS since Marco in 2008

This has been an awesome storm to track, despite it being "weak"
Quoting kmanislander:


I am inland so calmer here between 7 and 15 mph
Ok. The sea is pretty rough up here too. I know up by your mother's house has to be getting some good breeze.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I have a feeling that rainfall amount is incorrect. It has been raining heavily since before 6 am.
Quoting stormpetrol:


The rain gauge must be broken LOL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have a feeling that rainfall amount is incorrect. It has been raining heavily since before 6 am.


Just posted that . 3.86 at my home since midnight
Quoting kmanislander:


The rain gauge must be broken LOL
I think so. I hear thunder now again. I heard it earlier but it had stopped . Rain is continuous.
Back in a while
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. I've seen bigger masses of clouds in an MCS.


Past few MCSs over TX put it to shame
convection and vort should develop closer to where that lwer shear is in GOH