WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Alberto Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2006

This is Shaun with the latest update.

The current regional radar loop (Figure 1) shows extensive heavy precipitation already pouring into Florida from Alberto. The heaviest activity is right where the panhandle meets the mainland part of the state.

The latest recon mission reported a 68 kt wind at 700 mb, which translates to near 60 kt winds with the 90% reduction to the surface. This means that Alberto is still a tropical storm at the moment. I say at the moment because although water temperatures remain near 79-80 degrees, the atmosphere ahead of the storm center is expected to become more unstable, resulting in some intensification of the storm, possibly to hurricane strength before landfall.

Indeed, the official NHC track (Figure 2) shows a strengthening of the storm just before landfall. The main problem for the Florida coast will be the 8-10 foot storm surge that is expected. This height is especially high for a tropical storm so residents should be aware.

A look at the severe map (Figure 3) shows most of Florida and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina are under some sort of tropical storm of hurricane watch in anticipation of landfall midday Tuesday.

This sounds like the beginning of a long hurricane season.

Figure 1. Regional radar loop.

Figure 2. Official NHC track for Alberto.

Figure 3. Severe weather map.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Shaun.
Way to cover!
Convection is picking up again!
Is it just me or is there another center of rotation near Apalachacola (sp?)
hey Shaun you sould start up a blog of your own we would love to talk with you in your blog to see what you been up to and all of that this some in to think about
I don't see the convection picking up.
Is there a bettter model showing it.
can't really tell but what direction is it traveling in onshore and will that front draped across NC/SC effect Alberto and if yes then how?
TPAweatherguy...posted on last blog. Can attest to finally getting some wind and rain in South Tampa-
I'm in Palma ceia. I also believe TampaSteve told me he is near Bayshore, too. I think this is all we are going to see though, thankfully. We got the rain we needed today.
usually fronts act as a rough guide for tropical cyclones - they tend to slide perpendicular to them once they become influenced by them. Structurally, the effect is most significant on outflow, once a hurricane becomes 'attached' to a front, that generally becomes its main outflow channel.
The LLC seems to be stalled off the coast..
Albertos not goin down w/o a fight.
Does it look like it's wobbling to the north? Perhaps even a little to the NNW?

Thats true i was a little worried yesterday but big AL came thru for us in Tampa.
Thanks Shaun! And iyou, thanks for letting us know of the new post!

TPAweatherguy, this is the regional radar:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=d5&size=2x

I can do loops on my rural dial-up system, but I'm sure that precip is intensifying right across FLA from Tampa to Tallahassee and now seems to be popping up in the Gulf as well. This storm is showing renewed signs of life!
i definitely do not see a NNW move
Some how we always get lucky here in South Tampa. It's like the storms stop somewhere in the middle of Tampa Bay and pick back up over North Tampa. I'm watching the news now and Bradenton and New Tampa have stronger winds than we do.
I've baeen a huge fan of this site for the longest time, and I've finally joined!

I must say some of you guys seem so happy it may be a hurricane, just be careful what you wish for later in the season! :(

Anyway, I've got a feeling Alberto will become a hurricane, but lets hope not.
there was only one frame of nnw movement, and only on normal IR - it didnt appear to veer nnw on shortwave though. None the less, a wobble to the north was evident on all channels. It doesnt look like its moved anywhere to the east in an hour or so.
Great, I finally join and I spell "been" wrong! Bad luck. :/
I can't believe NHC still calls for 70% chance of a hurricane.
I just don't think it's gona happen.
I wonder if this latest rainband coming in will hold together?
It seems so small.
Welcome SilenceKnight (cool handle!), and don't fret about typos. You'll be judged by your contributions to the blogs, not by your spelling..
- and boy oh boy look at that huge blob of convection firing up over southeast Louisiana. If Alberto hoovers that up then it will give a real jolt to the system!
TPAweatherguy...the bands coming into Tampa area right now are probably the most dangerous yet....right now there is some dry air being drawn in and the low level shear that happens can cause severe tornadic activity.
If that light rain would just move up two counties to the north in Alabama...just about 20-30 miles north of where it is hitting now in Chipley/Marianna....I'd be a happy camper. I don't want the heavy drenching stuff...just enough to give us a nice steady HEALTHY rain.
24. WSI
Welcome SilenceKnight. Don't worry, Alec will fine you $5 per each spelling error, LOL! Glad to see you posting.

I too don't see Alberto being a hurricane. Looks too disorganized. I was amazed that it's gotten this far. Count me as one with egg on their face for saying this thing didn't have a chance of being a hurricane. How nature surprises us. So he very well may make hurricane status just to spite us, LOL! I am hoping it brings us some rain to NC. :)


For those who are new or missed it, I have all kinds of weather links at weathercore.com.
Be glad that Alberto missed you, TPAweatherguy - note that the blob of convection over SE Louisiana is growing eastwards and about to absorb a smaller cell on its east side (over Mobile)..
Do you think alberto is stong enough to pull that convection into its center?
Wow, look at the big blob of convection near 8N 33W. Does anyone else think it's pretty unusual to have a blob that big so far east for so early in the season?

Link
That blob is definitly unusually strong, but I guess in this day and age nothing can be called unusual anymore..
What are the water temps near that blowup of convection near 8N 33W?
quakeman - Thnaks for the link. That is a healthy looking wave for any time of the year. Looks like it is also building an nice ULH over itself. Climatologically it would be a freak for it to make it across the Atlantic this time of the year withour getting sheared by some westerlies or impaling itself onto the South American coast...but it should be interesting to see what happens to it, definitely worth watching.
I think that Alberto could pull it in OR it could grow until it fills in his whole west side!
Well according to the ocean temp graphic from this site, it looks to be about 83-84F, with temps at least 82F ahead of it.

34. Alec
we just got very strong winds and tree branches blowing off here in Tallahassee a few moments ago....there was blinding rains here for 10-20 minutes...
Sounds like some nice weather.
That could happen snowboy nut you gotta remember, Al's on land in 4-6 hours. hes almost out of time.

Those temps arent to bad for a developing storm..
There's also a pretty good wave moving into the Lesser Antilles, but it is being affected by shear. Still, though, it goes to show that apparently waves are starting to move a little farther N, and I would think you normally wouldn't see this regularly until at least July.

Link
i think the convection near 33W is more associated with the ITCZ, and would thus not have much chance of ultimately developing since the ITCZ is too far south at this time of the year. This is just based on a glance at the central atlantic satelite though... id check on the TAFB Discussion for more details.
Yeah if that blob holds together for a few more days, it could develop a spin and, well, you know the rest of the story. Shear is very light around and ahead of it and temps are warm, and it's far enough away from the equator for the Coriolis effect to be felt on the system (needs to be at least 8N or so to do that).
*the wave in the lesser antillies is probably more promising.
This next rain band is gona be interesting. getting ready to move into hillsborough county.
wow...that IS a monster storm quake!! thats got potential written all over it...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT...BUT
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS PROBABLY
FURTHER WEST NEAR 30W. THIS WAVE MAY BE RELOCATED IN THE NEXT
SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WHICH ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED V
CLOUD PATTERN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N. THIS WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO E
CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

That was from the 805 PM EDT report. Will check back soon to see what the 205 AM report says.
For a Near-Hurricane there are no wind reports on the NWS/SPC site.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/





Last 3 hours. Note: this may change in 3 hours to show more. At 0500 the only wind report in the country was in Louisiana.

This map:
http://www.stormreportmap.com/
supposedly shows the same information. All the big wind reports are north Georgia and SC.

Now showing reports for June 13, 2006:
Tornadoes: 3
Wind Reports: 27
Hail Reports: 70

---------

Even WUNDERGROUND.com can't find any wind in Alberto...
http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/

The peak winds I see right NOW are 32 mph at Tallahassee, and 28 mph for Sarasota.

Are you SURE this Tropical Storm isn't being made up in a movie studio backlot in Arizona somewhere?
I don't think anything is really too far south. Typhoon Vamei developed at 1.4N.
46. Alec
generally the farther south you get to the equator the weaker the coriolis effect has on potential tropical depressions(it helps them spin), but there have been a few times where depressions formed regardless..
Latest tropical weather disucssion identifies it as a wave:

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2006
[...]
...Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 28w S of 11n moving west 10-15 kt...but latest satellite pictures indicate that the wave is probably further west near 30w. This wave may be relocated in the next surface analysis. Moderate to isolated strong convection is found on either side of the wave which also shows an inverted v cloud pattern.
some benefical rain in Tallahassee alec!
Seems like weve got 2 areas of possible formation in favorable locations.

At least stuff wont get boring once al's gone
in the atlantic, it seems like there has been a pretty consistant rule that storms form at 10 or north. The ITCZ makes sure that nothing can form too far south, and south america helps out too.
51. Alec
Yes GPTGUY....been raining all evening and got some very strong squalls a while ago...looks like we got our fair share of it!
ndcohn, do you think the wave is to far south to amount to anything?
Oh wow...that's crazy, I had never heard of something like that. But apparently, according to that article, it was cyclostrophic in nature, instead of relying on the coriolis effect to develop. Whatever cyclostrophic means...lol
they were doing storm stories on the weather channel and they were talking bout a hurricane that formed south of the ITCZ and actually traveled toward S. America and made landfall in Brazil. They were talking bout how hard it was because they had to alert the public but couldn't use the word Hurricane because nobody would understand.
thats great alec, now if we could gets some rain here..were in an extreme drought here on the MS. Coast only about 20" since Katrina...btw when ST was talking about Alberto heading toward SW LA-upper TX this was my post Posted By: GPTGUY at 3:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2006.
Im thinking Keaton Beach, FL.
56. Alec
Yes GPTGUY...look at the last few radar frames above.....looks like Alberto is going more north...
tropicalstorm006...That particular storm was called "Katarina". It hit the province of Santa Katarina in Brazil in March of 2004. First southern hemisphere hurricane recorded in modern times. I have photos.
this is what cyclostrophic means:

Cyclostrophic flow is a fairly common flow in the atmosphere. This balance involves two forces in the n equation of motion, those being the following:

The centrifugal force: The pressure gradient force:

With the balance between the pressure gradient force in the n equation of motion and the centrifugal force, this constricts the possible types of flow to two types. The flow can be either cyclonic or anti-cyclonic with a circular motion as a result of the centrifugal force. However, the pressure gradient force always points inward, making the center of circulation an area of low pressure. Since only two forces are considered, there are certain assumptions the also have to be made. The flow must be frictionless, always parallel to the height contours, and the scale of the flow is either small in scale or near the equator, where the coriolis force is essentially zero. The following picture illustrates cyclostrophic flow:

rT > 0 < 0 rT 0


When we assume that a flow is cyclostrophic in nature, the coriolis force is defined as being zero. Therefore, a method must exist to determine if the coriolis force can be neglected. If the ratio of the centrifugal force to the coriolis force is large, then the cyclostrophic assumption can be made. This ratio, called the Rossby number is defined below:


where:
Ro is the Rossby number

There are some real world applications to cyclostrophic flow. Small scale circulations, such as tornados, waterspouts, and dust devils are small enough so that the coriolis force can be neglected. However, tornados typically have a cyclonic circulation associated with them, because the rotation of the mesocyclone that spawns the tornado is cyclonic. However, waterspouts and dust devils are not as constrained to the weather systems that spawn them. Both of these circulations have been observed to be both cyclonic and anti-cyclonic.

which wave?

The one in the lesser antillies definetly has potential if conditions become more favorable aloft.

The convection around 40W is decieving. Most of it isn't really associated with a tropical wave, its just convection along the ITCZ. It looks to me like the wave is more along 30W. So it looks pretty good now, but i suspect that wont look nearly as impressive tomorrow, and i doubt it will make it into the carribean at this longitude anyway. If it did though, and it kept its convection together... that would be interesting, but i'd doubt it at this point.
yeah more toward Apalachicola, which was my first prediction when it was a depression lol guess i should have stuck with it lol
61. Alec
LOL GPTGUY.....the models were saying it would turn more northward all evening....looks like it might pan out if it's not a temporary wobble..
Actually, the South Atlantic hurricane was is known as Catarina. I wouldn't care about the spelling error except for the fact that Katarina is kind of close to Katrina.
Sorry, you would be correct. Catarina
Also, I believe the reason it was hard to warn the people, was that the Brazilian government denied that it was a hurricane.
Cyclostrophic flow occurs around a low pressure system when the coriolis effect is essentially zero. Dust devils can rotate either CW or CCW because they are so small the coriolis effect is neglible. The low pressure still spins because the centrifugal force has to balance the pressure gradient force. Some tornados in the northern hemisphere have also been observed to rotate anti-cyclonically. It must have been that Typhoon Vamei started out very small, but it is still a freak.
louastu...Brazilian gov. completely denied the whole 85mph storm.
I was talking about the one along 40W, by the way, where do you think the wave in the ne carib would travel if it became better organized?
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...SOME POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR RESTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

not surprising
gust to 43 mph in Tampa peak wind thus far recorded...

Link
Wikipedia article on Cyclone Catarina:

Link
Here is a link to the Wikipedia page on Catarina.
O.....k............

Well, I wasted my time. LOL
it would be impossible to tell where NE carribean wave would go if it developed. Hurricanes tend to be effected by steering currents once they develope enough vertically enough to be effected by them. Thats why waves dont recurve out into the open atlantic, like hurricanes do. So... where the system would track is directly related to when it actually developed. i.e. - if it developed now, it would end up in a way different place then if it developed in a week because it would be under steering currents for that much longer. Since there isn't much indicating any remotely imminant development, we can probably assume the wave will trek further to the west. Its too far out to know anything more then that until we know when/if it develops, and then what the conditions are at that point. Unfortunately, we cant know either at this time.
Alec! is it windy there??? Im about to go outside and look before bed.
I want to get up REAL early!

C~YA in the morning!
Final tongue-in-cheek prediction of the night...Trickster Alberto stalls before landfall and begins moving SW by morning...thereby fooling every forcaster on the planet...

absolutely no evidence that this will occur, I'm just pulling that one out of my hat.

G'Night All!
78. Alec
Looks like Alberto wont be a hurricane! That wimpy thing doesn't deserve that status anyways!LOL

BTW louastu cool link on Catarina. Bet it is not the last South Atlantic hurricane we see.

Must.Sleep.Now.
test
If Alberto doesn't intensify and become one tonight, it may possibly be reclassified as one in post-season analysis (a la Cindy), as had been previously mentioned.
Thanks for all the helpful advice everyone.
Im going to bed. Can't wait to see what surprise Al's got up his sleve for tonight.

Goodnight all.
Excerpt from latest NHC advisory:
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N...84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

Looks like Alberto is not going to make the big time - he's run out of water..
damn isomnia, well finally getting some pretty good gusts.
and must have been a good gust earlier I was outside and saw a transformer flash.
Well, Alberto has started it, anyway! I hardly ever post, but just want to say how great it was to read these past 83 posts and it's all about the weather. That's why I come here. Thanks, guys, for being and acting like adults. I really want to learn more about tropical weather, and have been reading a lot, but the personal (and occasionally slightly offensive) comments that go back and forth sometimes make me feel like I'm in the wrong place. Everyone who posted in this segment of blog, thank you for reminding me why I come here.
Ouch...take a look at the latest CMC run:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

The latest GFS run looks interesting and tries to develop a wave directly off the African coast. Is that even possible this early in the year?

The CMC is more intimidating though, seeing as it showed Alberto's formation before any other models did, and it came to pass. Should LA residents be on the lookout?
quake I looked at both models. What are you talking about?
Is there any television stations feeding their coverage in Florida thru the internet?
Oops, forgot to link it, haha.

Okay on CMC model, check out the area near Cuba's southern coast starting from about 72h:

Link

And on the GFS model, check out what happens west of Africa. It also initially shows the wave at 8N 33W, but dissipates it:

Link
hmmm two landfalling systems 4 days apart.
I don't want to give STORMTOP props , but this ridge could send Albertmesso west for a bit. I know how you all rag STORMTOP, but I think he takes in the whole picture without regurgitating stated info and I think he forms his own prediction. It takes a little talent and natural nack to look at a global mosaic and picture a scenario. just my thoughts, please don't crucify me.
hey SpyRI thanks for the kind words for all of us. This blog can get a bit hairy, because it's the point of entry for many new folks to the WU world and some of them take a while to settle in and learn the ropes.

And heads up in Tampa and Orlando, major feeder bands and associated convection headed your way! Alberto is not done yet. Check out this loop..
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=d5&size=2x&type=loop
getting some real bad rain bands with some serious TS force winds in Tampa now..woke me up !!!
bad rain bands with lots of winds in tampa right now
Will it Reach Hurricane Strength???? Deal or No Deal????
Tampa about to get wet about 8 a.m. ... err wait ... make that Tallahassee ... yeah, that's the ticket. (cracking up)
No crucifixions here, cajunkid. Making predictions based on our knowledge and/or experience and/or gut instincts is what it is all about here. The great thing is that we can try out new ideas, run our thoughts by others who can understand (if not agree with) us.

I love STORMTOP's input when he sticks to the weather, as he has loads of experience and often sees things missed by others (including sometimes the NHC). But he can be awfully abrasive and harsh towards others who don't agree with him, which is why he gets grief in return.
Looks like the worst part of the storm is past Tallahasee right now. Ah... insomnia, such a beautiful thing.

Still getting some rain though, but I can hear the frogs, so it's not raining that heavily outside.
no doubt snowboy, I can't help but say, he had good reason for stating what he did yesterday if you look at what is happening now. He was off a bit , but he had the insight to predict what might happen. That only comes with a natural born feel. Some have it and some don't.
indeed cajunkid, anyhow I'm off for tonight but still wondering if Alberto has any more surprises up his sleeve..
hmmmmm this thing still looking weak
Yep, I'm up. The winds have picked up with this last band.Gust near my house in St. Pete at 40 Kt. Thats the one that woke me!
guess n. Fla. needed the rainmaker....
The only thing that might strengthen this is the large amount of convection coming off of NOLA. It seems like an ill defined (wide) center of rotation. If it is westernmost point of the pivot that we see on the radar, it could wrap in that convection
looking at the radar I see the band you guys are talking about. Was going quick!
that band is over Orlando now
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200601_n0z.html?extraprod=n0z
Oh crap, tornado warning issued for us here in Orange county :(
Jaxonville getting a pretty healthy band
111. MahFL
I am in Jacksonville.
On the water vapor loop, it has so much dry air in the center, I'm suprised it is still this strong.
Posted By: MahFL at 7:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2006.
I am in Jacksonville

Well? you should have gotten some rain with gusty winds recently
114. MahFL
We have had 2 hours of mod/heavy rain, some thunder, not much wind. We are now in the new Tornado watch untill 2 pm Tuesday.
Pulsing Blasts of wind & sporadic Rain in Tampa Bay! Make landfall yo stinker! & slowdown! OrEven DIE! Yeah That's the Ticket!
No "Canes" Today!


Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on June 13, 2006



with a slug of dry air overtaking the center of circulation...
Alberto's chances of becoming a hurricane are evaporating. There
is no deep convection near the center and the cyclone is taking on
a less-than-tropical appearance on satellite imagery. The wind
field has also broadened considerably over the past 12 hours or so.
Peak 850 mb flight-level winds from the last reconnaissance flight
were 64 kt...which given the relative lack of convection...would
correspond to about 50 kt at the surface. A Quikscat pass near 0z
did show winds as high as 55 kt...which will be the advisory
intensity for this package. Little change in strength is expected
prior to landfall.
The initial motion is 035/8. As a mid-latitude short wave moves
eastward off the Atlantic Seaboard...building heights behind the
trough are expected to nudge the track a little to the left before
Alberto gets picked up by the next short wave. Model guidance is
in good agreement in keeping the center over land for much of the
next 36 hours. After that...Alberto should accelerate in the
westerlies as an extratropical cyclone. The official forecast is
significantly faster than the previous advisory after 72
hours...and is in rough agreement with the dynamical model
consensus.
Since the broad circulation of Alberto will decay only slowly after
landfall...there is some possibility of onshore winds to tropical
storm force north of the present warning area on the Atlantic
coast. The Tropical Storm Warning has therefore been extended
northward.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/0900z 29.2n 84.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 13/1800z 30.3n 83.4w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 14/0600z 32.1n 81.9w 35 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 14/1800z 34.4n 78.9w 30 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 15/0600z 37.0n 73.5w 35 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 16/0600z 43.5n 62.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/0600z 50.5n 48.5w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 18/0600z 55.0n 25.0w 40 kt...extratropical
So I'm assuming borderline tropical storm/depression here in Mt. Pleasant (suburb of Charleston)? Around noon Wednesday?
118. WSI
We are supposed to get some rain the Piedmont of NC. We have received around half the normal rainfall this year, so rain from this storm is quite welcome. I would like to see it dump about 2 or 3 inches of rain on us, but it looks like those amounts are reserved for the coastal sections.

Computer models seem to be in good agreement with the NHC track.



weathercore.com
That wave in the far east Carribean is really starting to flare.
Interesting. Even though alberto isn't "strengthening", it has seemed to wrap itself in more convection. There were times where the center of circulation looked 75% dry. It only looks 20% dry to me. It might still bump up to 70mph.
Well, Tallahassee is getting some of the hardest rain and wind of the night/morning now as the convention on the west side of the center starts to intensify. It's also starting to wrap convention around the south side of the circulation, which would imply some slight strengthening.

As the center is still about 45 miles offshore, it still has about 3/5 more hours before landfall, which is plenty of time to strengthen a little bit before landfall.

Overall though this has been a good rain storm for us.
Hello, just joined wunderground recently.
Can't believe the season already started.
I hope all of you will be safe during and after the season.
And oh.. Nice to meet you : )
I am so impressed, it just keeps trying to strengthen. Someone should tell it that it's out of time.
Looks like it's about to make landfall 3 or 4 counties north of where I'd been guessing it would for the last 2 days & just about where I called for 3 days ago. Not bad, not perfect, hope to do so well the rest of the season. LOL.

About 20 minutes ago a tornado was tracking through Scottsmoor & Mims in N Brevard. This needs to leave us more rain if we're gonna get these fires out..
Well if that convection continues to increased, 3 hours would all it needs to fire up and that's all it has.
It's still about 45 miles off the coast... according to radar. Landfall would occur in about 3 to 5 hours if the current motion continues.

But yes, Taylor or Jefferson/Wakulla should see landfall. I predicted landfall near Taylor county all day yesterday so glad I am looking right.
Advisory 13a is out.
Still 65mph and 995mb
Good Morning all in Dr.Master's Blog.
Hope that all are safe.
Last few frames of radar is really starting to show some rotation. If it does become a hurricane it will be the earliest on record (aleast I remenber reading that somewhere)
---Shameless Plug---

I am having a informal prediction contest please sign up if interest ASAP.

Also I am trying to get a headcount of how many people other than myself and stormtop are having these types of contests so we can get together and make sure we not stepping on each other's toes. This counts for offsite contests as well.

Thanks

Orion Darkwood's Blog

---END PLUG---
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

WITH A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
ALBERTO'S CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE EVAPORATING. THERE
IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CYCLONE IS TAKING ON
A LESS-THAN-TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WIND
FIELD HAS ALSO BROADENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
WERE 64 KT...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION...WOULD
CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0Z
DID SHOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/8. AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BEFORE
ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE
WESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72
HOURS...AND IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SINCE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO WILL DECAY ONLY SLOWLY AFTER
LANDFALL...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE PRESENT WARNING AREA ON THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.2N 84.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.3N 83.4W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/1800Z 34.4N 78.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 43.5N 62.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0600Z 50.5N 48.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/0600Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

There was a Category 2 hurricane in March(!) before, so Alberto would not be the earliest on record by a very long way, not even the earliest landfalling hurricane.
I think the biggest tradgedy from Alberto is cutting Dr. Masters' vacation short or at least interruption it. As I walked outside today there was very little wind & with only a drizzle of rain. I did run into a medium rainshower on my way to work.

Outside of the storm surge I think you may see more damage from flooding & tornadoes in Georgia & the Carolina's than in Florida. As far a Florida is concerned, I think Alberto will go down in the books as a wimp. Maybe 6-7 years from now Alberto can redeem himself.
I wouldn't call Alberto a Wimp... I mean, look where he formed and the conditions he was in... He defied all odds and all expectations. Thats pretty good.

lol... This wave looks better than alberto. Carrib WV
Yeah, don't call them wimps or they intensify... LOL
well, looks like the forecasted slight strengthening before landfall has started. it appears that the t-storms are starting to wrap around the southern side as in indicated by the Tallahassee Composite Reflectivity

we may still get a cane????
Morning all. That seems about right SC. Welcome aboard. Not too far from you here.

Check out the site some time.

StormJunkie.com where you can find all the best weather data on the web. Imagery, models, wind data, storm video, and much more.

Thanks all.
SJ
a tropical wave just entered the caribbean sea....
lol no cane she is dead. look at radar mosture is drying up. the storm has dry air all i the center circulation is exposed. even if it wrapped up and filtered out the dry air it doesnl;t have enough time to stregthen any. it takes hours to reorginise something it does not have. there will be no cane fromn alberto. the center is alredy starting to interact with land. remebr land is a no no for canes. anyway off to work enjoy the dying storm
No Hurricane Alberto? So I lose. Who is collecting the bets. Looks like when he tried to wrap any moiture around on the West it only served to drag the remnants of the dry air into his center and poof, he's gone. We definitly know that it was the loop current and not just the dur max that caused the pressure drop from 1006 to 997 in 4 hours yesterday and the big burst of convection. Well done anyone who went with the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Masters or the Navy because all of them said it had a less than 10 percent chance. 20,000 people evacuated (well done Jeb) and hurricane warnings posted tells me that Alberto threw them the curve ball that I thought he could. But now he is gone so we go back to debating weather or not 2 stroke engines and tanning beds are the major contributers to Global Warming. By the looks of it we don't have long to debate.
Morning all from wet, windy Brevard County FL. First time back on the board this year...so what did Stormtop predict this go-around? Category 3 at landfall in Clearwater? Looks like Alberto is outta time. Tropical storm at best. Everyone dig the media frenzy for this one? You'd think it was the Apocalypse if ya listened to the Orlando affiliates.
Hey Lefty I kind of posted an appology to you yesterday before I left. Did you get that? Good call on Alberto not making CAT 1. You do have to admit there was at least a minuet or two that it was possible. But obviously you were looking at all the data and you knew he would be taking huge gulps of dry air. Good show.
Alberto is time to leave let the next tropical disturbance around the islands enter
Hey Dunhull- Trying to recall from last season...Merritt Island?

Looks like that big blob of tropical moisture approaching the coast around Ft. Myers plus some destabilization of the atmosphere due to breaks in the clouds and solar heating should bring another round of beneficial rains to the southern and central Florida Peninsula today.
The NHC had a less than 10% chance of a hurricane? I don't think so... They had a 70% chance yesterday (according to the wind table)...
Forgive the fingers...sticky keyboard, two finger typists...and plain old age.
Ok to all those that think the sensationalizing is over the top. You do realize that we had the most prolific hurricane season in recorded times just seven months ago. We also had 3 of the top 5 strongest hurricanes on record occur. As well as the strongest. At least 1,500 Americans are dead and another 3,000 missing. Almost an entire US city was destroyed.

I'm sory you couldn't have made it any more sensational if you were George Lucas.

I would rather be an alarmist and make sure people get the message and lose no one than minimize these incredible forces of nature and lose 1 human life or more.
149. dindi
The SUN, streaming through my window, awakened me in Gainesville, but as I write, the sky is darkening and the wind is picking up again. It was sort of like our own little eye of the storm.
I don't think that wave currently over the Lesser Antilles has a very good chance due to the digging trough over Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

Maybe some of the wave energy can sneak underneath the trough, but a good part of the energy is going to be sheared off north into the Atlantic.
Big burst of convection near the center, it's still theoretically possible for Alberto to make hurricane strength before landfall.
thats what i say colby, course our left handed meteorologist has gone to work! LOL

this is the most convection near the center since yesterday......
What a surprise, the dry air kept getting sucked into the center, and kept Alberto from becoming a 'cane. I am pretty worried now about what will happen when a storm is churning in the gulf in the absence of dry air and shear.
Dr Masters has a new blog up
And if Alberto didn't have so much staying power, Alberto would have probably dissapated a long time before it even was named a storm by the NHC.