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Alberto storms ashore

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2006

Alberto is coming ashore in the sparsely populated Big Bend region of the Florida coast this morning. After a surprising burst of intensification that brought Alberto to the verge of hurricane status yesterday, dry air, cooler waters, and the continued 20-30 knots of wind shear have kept Alberto from reaching hurricane strength. Alberto is making landfall as a tropical storm with top winds between 45 mph and 50 mph. At 8 am EDT at Cedar Key the sustained winds were south at 33 mph gusting to 43 mph. At the Apalachicola buoy, about 45 miles south of the center of Alberto, winds were west at 36 mph gusting to 45 mph. The C tower in Apalachee Bay, just west of the storm center, winds were out of the northwest at 49 mph with gusts to 59 mph--but the wind instrument is 100 feet above the surface where wind speeds can be quite a bit higher than the surface. The 8am Hurricane Hunter flight found top winds of only 65 mph at 5000 foot altitude. A strong burst of deep convection has formed over the northern portion of the storm in the past few hours, but this is too late to bring Alberto up to hurricane strength.


Figure 1. Latest storm-centered satellite image of Alberto.

The biggest threat from Alberto remains storm surge. At 8 am EDT the tide at Cedar Key was about 3 to 4 feet above normal, and areas between Cedar Key and near where the center makes landfall to the north can expect storm surge heights of up to seven feet. Since this is a relatively unpopulated stretch of coast, damage should be relatively low. Another concern is tornadoes, but none have been reported yet in northern Florida today. At least two tornadoes were reported yesterday, one of which did minor damage at Jacksonville Beach.

Alberto will bring heavy rain and the threat of tornadoes to southern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina over the next 36 hours, but the storm is not expected to re-intensify once it reaches the open Atlantic. At best, Alberto will bring top winds of 45 mph to these states.

I'll be back with an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Alberto feederband
Alberto feederband
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Is that an eye I spy? Man, Alberto is one tough little storm determinedly trucking for shore & then? Hoping, hoping, hoping for Raleigh so the Oilers can get the full Carolina Hurricanes experience Wed night!
Well at least Alberto didn't gain too much strength. SC is going to get much needed rain (although we may get it too fast).
That's the truth WW07
Looks more like a hurricane than ever right now.
I've noticed that as tropical systems come onshore there is often one last flare-up of convection. I am not sure why that is...speed convergence? Anyone here know the reason for the phenomenom?
Alberto won't bring much rain - he'll move by in hours, and there's not that much convection associated with him. I was sitting under a feeder band all of yesterday, probably only got 2-3 in of rain.
The flare-up may be due to land interaction.
Every little bit helps.
"Alberto won't bring much rain - he'll move by in hours, and there's not that much convection associated with him. I was sitting under a feeder band all of yesterday, probably only got 2-3 in of rain."


Heck, that would be plenty. My area is over 9 inches down for the year. An inch is helpful right now, LOL!
Speed convergence makes sense to me. Land friction causes the air ashore to slow down...and faster moving air catches up to it causing what is referred to as "speed convergence".
Could be that the water gets warmer as you get closer to the coast.
Guygee, I think it has something to do with the different aerodynamics over land.
Thanks wxgssr, that explanation makes sense to me.
Cheers! Alberto tried to look impressive at the last second, mostly for it's portrait on wikipedia. Most of the rain was last night and this morning, there is so little on the back end.
15. WSI
"Could be that the water gets warmer as you get closer to the coast."

Not in this case. Water is cooler in that area near the shore.
it is land interaction...same reason landfalling canes spin up tornadoes. you start to get a lot of air spinning at different speeds at different levels of the atmosphere...the air near the ground slows a lot while the air up top keeps whirling along.
ForecasterColby - Greater frictional effects over land?
Is there an official landfall time? I mean is it officially on land?
A couple of beginner questions:
1. I've been reading quite a bit on here lately about shear, the jet stream and cut-off lows, etc. When the jet stream splits into 2 jet streams causing shear over the Gulf, what typ of affect does a tropical system have on the jet stream, if any?

2. Could it possibly have a positive or negative affect on shear in area after moving on?

3. Could it relax the shear over the Gulf for any period of time, creating a more positive environment for other tropical wave formation?

Sorry if all of these are stupid questions, just wondering.

Thanks in advance,

Nomad
Here is a link to a paper that inteprets lidar data to extract the Boundary Layer Height. One observation from the paper:
"The boundary layers are much deeper over land than over the ocean (as expected)."

Link
Are there any online degrees in Meterology anyone would recommend? I'd like to continue my studies in it. I started a physical geography degree at my community college years ago but never finished it (I now have a master's degree in something else). It only had 2 relevant meterology classes anyway, and I think the science has developed quite a bit from that time. (1995-1996)
of course the boundary layer is higher over land. not too many trees are growing up out of the ocean...not many hills either.
Getting lots of good rain here in Georgia, but it looks like the big rain shield is moving through quickly and dissipating somewhat. We've had a fairly constant rain for several hours with short bursts of downpours, but nothing even approaching your average afternoon T-storm. One radar it looks like maybe one or two more big cells will head our way, then Savannah will be dry probably until tonight when bands from the main core of the system start moving through.
Morning tiger. Some of those quetions are pretty tuff to answer as there are so many variables in our climate, but there is a lot of good free information on the web that can help you understand thing like shear. You can find most of it here. StormJunkie.com.

SJ
Sav-bands will start picking up latter this afternoon and evening with the daytime heating.

Odd, how the cooling temps at night can work to produce deep convection, and yet the same thing can happen due to daytime heating...

SJ
of course the boundary layer is higher over land. not too many trees are growing up out of the ocean...not many hills either.
rwdobson - Thus, the land interaction effect when tropical systems come onshore and briefly intensify due to speed convergence.

Just thinking it through for myself, with the aid of all of the helpful folks here who replied.

Looks like that wind shear really helped break this storm down. Is there a good reference somewhere that explains where shear comes from, how long it lasts, etc. Maybe it's on map images somewhere that I can't find. Where-ever it comes from, I hope it lasts! Thanks (I'm new here so be gentle)
Does anytone think we'll get more rain in Tallahassee today?
I'll see ya'll later, not feeling real great today. Not sure I drank enough water out at the beach this weekend...

Trainiac check the link my previous post. There is a good shear forecast map there, and you can find more shear data from their.

SJ
Wind shear does not come from anywhere; it just means that the speed and direction of winds in different layers of the atmosphere is different; for example, surface winds can be from the south and winds aloft can be from the west. Such a difference pulls tropical cyclones apart.
WWoo7- Think you're right..Need all the rain we can get in central SC. Looks like we'll get a dose this PM @ another when the core passes. More water for Lake Murray...9ft down at this point
The Center is not quite on land yet HopquickSteve, soon though.
Hello every one. I would like to know your comments about this system at the south east of the caribean seaa.
This is the image at WV Link

And this is the loop and the Infra red : Link

I would like to if this system have some chance to become a tropical storm or a TD?
Thank you
saint hope u know ur wrong the storm was still alive
Buoy at Keaton Beach, FL
jcp... just a healthy easterly wave, riding the tradewinds at this point. Will have to watch this one when it gets south of Cuba
The center looks like it is moving more east to me.
jcpoulard there have been talks about it possibly developing. I personally haven't looked at it yet but will start to this evening.
jcpoulard - Looks like the trough digging over Puerto Rice and Hispaniola could shear off a lot of the energy in that wave northwards into the Atlantic. Maybe part of the wave will pass underneath and miss the trough(?)
jcpoulard- The water ahead and under that system is definitely warm enought to support devlopement, and the shear seems pretty relaxed so, I'd say if it can hold it's own, there is a pretty good chance we could soon see TD2
Check out the feeder band Al has now. Stretches all the way down past Cancun.
Odd, how the cooling temps at night can work to produce deep convection, and yet the same thing can happen due to daytime heating...

Stormjunkie,

Convection occurs when a blob of air is warmer (and therefore lighter) than the air around it. This can happen in many ways any time of day, but usually can be thought of in terms of boiling water in a pot on the stove.

Example 1. Atmosphere cools during the night, but the air just above the ocean remains nice and warm. With enough pertubation this warm air rises.

Example 2. Sun's shining, and land gets really hot. The air just above the land is warmer than the atmosphere, and with enough pertubation it rises as well.

Example 3. Volcanic eruptions, fires, etc.

My neighbor in South Dakota close to where I grew up wanted more rain for his crops. He decided to put a square acre of black-top in the middle of his wheat field. The idea was that the black-top would radiate more heat than the surrounding area, and thus developing thunderstorms would develop there first and water his crops. I have no idea what came of it ... has anybody else tried this?
That wave has 20-30 kts of shear over it. Link
newt3d - I know for a fact that the hast island effect (that is what you are describing with the blacktop), causes storms to get more intense; it happens in my area (and I have seen it happen on radar).
Another thing that helps a weaker storm gain convection at landfall is the temp difference of land to water. Being a little warmer over land the air rises & causing instability. Lastnights adviseries eluded to the unstable air over FL.

Hmmm, my weather radio had a report shortly before 7am of a tornado in N Brevard, but nothing is on the storm prediction center about it. With only 4 tornado reports in the state & a few wind damage reports yesterday & none today, looks like your usual tropical storm. The media certainly hyped this abit yesterday.
My bad, whats te forecast on the shear? will it relax or strngthen, is there a chance for this little guy to develop?
The shear could decrease; in fact, the GFS forecasts shear to decrease in it's path.
Question for the meteorologists(or so inclined) here...Over land, the diurnal maximum is when the daytime heating of the land surface reaches its peak, usually in mid-afternoon, the time when the probability of convective thunderstorms developing is at its peak.

Over warm water, the opposite occurs, when convective instability is increased at night as the air above the warm water cools more quickly than the water. This peak occurs sometime just before sunrise. I've heard people refer to this time over water using two opposite-sounding terms: the "diurnal maximum", or the "diurnal minimum". Which is correct, when referring to systems over water?
By the way, the GFS is forecasting the wave that just came off of Africa to develop into a Cape-Verde storm; however, I discount it because it is too early for that.
Looking back into the Atlantic and off the coast of Africa, it appears that Alberto is only the beginning:(
Yeah, I was wondering about the wave at 57? Any feedback? Looks like a healthy lil' fella
HopquickSteve, check your email about an online meteorology degree.


Pat
Guygee,

For tropical cyclones the dinurnal maximum is during nightime before sunrise. This is when the atmosphere is it's coldest and warm air from the ocean has the easiest time rising.

The dinurnal minimum is in the afternoon hours when the atmosphere warms up and warm ocean air has the hardest time rising. Weak tropical systems such as depressions and storms are ussually effected the most by the dinurnal minumum and maximum - as Alberto did 2 nights ago when he developed that huge burst of cenvection during the nightime hours.

I cant say if dinurnal min/max is different for things other then tropical cyclones.
Thanks HurricaneMyles, that makes sense to me because that usually is the time when the convection in tropical systems peak in a daily cycle. I was asking because in the blog last night somebody was calling it the "diurnal minimum" (which also made some sense if you just considered solar heating). I was curious about the conventional usage of the term.

Since this is mainly a blog for discussing tropical systems, I guess I'll settle on "diurnal max" for tropical cyclones over water.
MichaelSTL- I agree the wave is healthy, but it just seems too early.
The convection will probably die down soon anyway.
Coastie can you send me info also about online meteorology degree's. I settled on going to Miss. State Univ. but if there are others I'd like to compare them and thanks.
We have to watch that wave in the east Caribbean. If it survives the shear out there and moves into the western Caribbean, it could be a little something else to deal with...


Is this going to be our next blob? Not sure myself, but I'm going to keep an eye on it today.
Yeah that's the one I was pointing out. But I'd say it has a good chance to be our next one. I'm gonna go see what the latest run on the models have to say about it (especially the CMC).
quakeman55, check your blog email.

thanks

55 thanks for the reply.
63. OGal
Quakeman, the weather gurus here in Orlando have already started talking about that Atlantic wave. We will hear their hype from now until it hits land somewhere.
Anyone seee that wave off of Africa??? Looks strong for this time of year but water is cold according to some metereologists??? It looks very healthy though and the Bermuda High is beginning to strengthen...
That wave is not shown to be developing on any models; however, the GFS has one off of Africa developing, although it is too early for a Cape Verde storm. However, the rule book has apparantly been thrown out the window, so to speak...
The models are not showing any development on the first wave yet. However the GFS is picking up on the new wave off Africa.

Link
The water is not that cold, around 25-26 C for most of its path; several storms actually became hurricanes last year with lowere temperatures.
Yeah, most notably Delta and Epsilon, lol
The one in the Caribbean is impressive but I think the one further east is better organized and it even has circulation. I believe it will be number ywo before the one in the Caribbean.
70. Inyo
It's interesting how land based diurnal thunderstorms are the opposite of oceanic tropcial systems in that they peak in the afternoon and ebb late at night. I guess its beacuse land changes temperatures fast but water temperatures dont change much over the period of one day
Comment from the discussion:
A FEW HOURS AGO...A PARTIAL EYEWALL DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVENT MARKED ALBERTO'S
LAST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

Alberto was quite an amazing storm. Imagine...first one out of the box....and for a point yesterday was actually a hurricane. Could be another long season!
It seems like alberto was traveling east just to avoid landfall...but it looks like this is it!
Oy. Now, what would we say if we had three storms in June?

Ulp.
ABNT20 KNHC 131524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO...LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TALAHASSEE FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
IS RATHER BROAD AND DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

I may be totally wrong.. but I think the "cmc" is showing that wave the the carribean developing into something.

Anyone agree?
2006 isnt playin .......the NHC mention the wave in the E Caribbean sea, if this becomes TD 02 or TS beryl later down in the month......then we are really in for a year...

The water temps aren't an issue here. It's hot enough. The shear for both waves appear to be marginally favorable. The African wave has some dry air to its north that could slow it down. I'd say there is around a 30% chance that one of these will develop. If one of them does, it will be the third time in the last five years with two storms formed before July 1.
The High reminds me of 2004 built all the way into the gulf like that. Be interesting to see if it persists and for how long.
yeah, I think it does aravis. Not until it hits the Gulf in five or so days though.
Alberto was/is still a good watch. Its had so many visually interesting elements surprising moves, and still wasnt overly destructive and harmful. Real hurricanes are horrific. They last too long, the power goes out and things are a mess, even in the center of the state.

Alberto is hugging the coast. look at the tight center on radar that developed. Is it strengthening?? a tad?
dont anyone see we are following 2005-----Alberto forms around the same time as arlene...and now another disturbance........I say we are ahead of 2005...

.... Arlene 70mph forecasted to come a hurricane but did not...landfall florida.
strenghten in face of wind sheer...

Alberto 70mph....forecasted to come hurricane....did not.....landfall florida.....strenghthen in face of wind sheer....
History repeating itself...
Sorry, I was looking at the GFS MSLP Model for my info.
85. IKE
This mornings Puerto Rico weather discussion has this....

"A tropical wave will begin to enter the local area in the morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the Virgin
Islands...local Caribbean waters...and move into east and southeast
Puerto Rico through midday Tuesday...before the upper atmosphere
destabilizes again during the afternoon and evening
hours...allowing for deep convection and potentially severe
thunderstorms to advect across the area southeast to northwest...with
most intense weather expected overnight across the local Caribbean
waters...and may likely affect the south and southwest coasts of
Puerto Rico and southern slopes. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 knots will
be possible across these areas...and brief torrential rainfall may
induce flash flooding and mudslides Tuesday evening and overnight.
With tropical wave moving at 25 knots."

Wind gusts 50-60!!!!

And it's moving along at 25 mph...motoring along!!!!
I think they will upgrade Alberto after the season ends.
Dr. Steve Lions said in June 2005 "an early start often ends up with a an inactive end"....tell that to Zeta in December.....

Dr. Steve Lions said in June 2006 "an early start like alberto does not mean that it will end up in an active year....

so if u do the maths.........u get the idea...

In 2004....many thought by July 31...it was going to be an inactive year......tell that to Charley, Frances, jeanne, Ivan


IKE, link for this info please? We cannot verify what you are saying if you do not post a source.
I think they will upgrade Alberto after the season ends.

Perhaps, but maybe the mid-level/flight-level winds made us overestimate the surface winds. I'm not so sure that the isolates 65kt reading from one of the dropsondes will convince them.

But this storm is special...the low refuses to dissipate, and frankly Alberto could have been much stronger at that pressure if there wasn't the adverse conditions he had to overcome. He could still do an Ophelia-esque raking of the East Coast. Let's see.
That is 25kts IKE
*isolated
JFLORIDA - I'm thinking that with Alberto crossing to the north and that big plume of moisture coming into the south, the Florida peninsula could see more rain and active weather today than yesterday, especially if Alberto moves more south and east of the forecast track.
25kt = 28.5mph or so?
Dr Lyons lost so much credibility with me last year with Hurricane Dennis. When Dennis entered the Gulf after Cuba, fairly unorganized from being over land, I remember Dr Lyons saying they dont expect the storm to strengthen anymore and then BOOM Dennis exploded. The mets. around here in Mobile were livid when he said that. After that day, I dont listen to him as much....I listen more to David Glenn here locally, he nailed many storms last year
HopquickSteve

The Google sez:

1 knots = 1.15077945 mph

96. IKE
Here's a link on that Puerto Rico weather discussion....

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=JSJ&StateCode=PR&SafeCityName=San_Juan

Copy and paste.
wow! could be another wild summer
Link
98. IKE
Oops my bad on knots vs. mph...trying to work and keep up on the tropics at the same time...
It probably was stronger in that it survived trough so much so long. St Teresa Beach shows some storm surge it seems (standing water foreground) and its not over.
The NHC and TWC are only waiting to last minute when a storm is a real threat to say something ...over the past years dont u see a number of storms being upgraded just before landfall...they wait so long and dont upgrade them that in post reports they are upgraded.....Gaston, Cindy, are two examples....o yeah Emily....

In a report about emily they said they measure some winds at flight level that equals to cat 5 strenght on the surface that was july 2005....but the forecaster said the pressure was of a strong cat 4 so they did nothing......

you can find it in Emily text archive at the NHC site....about the time emily reached its strenght
One good thing is that as Alberto moves east that surge in the Big Bend should get blown back out to sea. I feel sorry for people that live too close to the water there, even a stiff SW wind raises their tides significantly.
IKE sorry to be dickish there, I apologize. Sometimes stuff gets posted here that is total BS and I've been fooled too many times!
Does anyone else find all the moisture strung across the Atlantic from the Leewards to Africa quite odd for this time of year?
cajunkid - I don't like the looks of that low coming from the east riding under the subtropical high in the GFS.
I'm grateful that Alberto didn't get any worse than he was. I would hate to imagine how big he would have gotten if the shear wasn't there. As tenacious as Alberto was, and being the first storm of the season, I have a very uneasy feeling about this years hurricane season. I hope the other storms aren't as stubborn as Alberto was.
can someone post a good link showing that wave in the carib
thanks.
I guess the notible change in the 11am is they keep it a formidable tropical storm through out it's travels over land.
Wow, that's a new look. I hate the copyright button, weather information is crucial to public safety and should be made available freely as a common good. Our taxes pay for the vast majority of information collected, and only a few corporations on the corporate welfare dole try to profit off of it.
My blog has links for the Caribbean wave at the bottom of the entry (including the African one, as well as the GFS forecast for it, the only one forecast to develop).
SavannahStorm....not only u....when is like that there is high probality that at least one system will spin off fro this.
The latest GFS run gives me chills. Between the strong Bermuda High setup and low pressures and moisture in the ITCZ, and the GFS spinning up a Cape Verde storm, this is looking more like Spetember than June.
guygee - if you don't like using copyrighted information, go here.
thanks MichaelSTL... at least someone is talking about it.......
2006 will be like a cape verde year........alot of cape verde storms
115. yppub
I just got an interesting update from the NHC - LOL


000
WTNT61 KNHC 131633
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...WARNING...
...HEADER INFORMATION WAS OBTAINED FROM THE
...LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST FILE. CHECK THE
...HEADER BLOCK CAREFULLY, ESPECIALLY THE
...SYSTEM STATUS AND THE TIME-DATE LINE


******** TCU EXAMPLE ********

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
TROPICAL STORM ALICIA HAS REACHED HURRICANE
STRENGTH...

SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ALICIA HAD INCREASED
TO HURRICANE FORCE...DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A
SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 7 PM CDT.

******** END EXAMPLE ********


FORECASTER [YOUR LAST NAME]
Thanks Michael, I guess it is more the principle that bothers me. Accuweather uses government owned resources such as data from NWS sites and sateliite data without reimbursing the government anywhere near the true value of the information and infrastructure, but unlike NOAA and NWS, they get to lobby politicians into voting for privatization, which I do not believe serves the public interest. I am still pissed off over the demise of the IWIN site.

Sorry for the rant, just this one time...
Shear is usually pretty high above cuba this time of year but with the way things are going I woulden't rule out ANYTHING.
That GFS run is terrifying...two storms right off the bat, and one of them a JUNE CAPE VERDE?!?!?!

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
IS RATHER BROAD AND DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

NHC considers it worthy of TWO mention...me no like...
119. WSI
", but unlike NOAA and NWS, they get to lobby politicians into voting for privatization, which I do not believe serves the public interest."

Yeah, it serves the interests of their pockets, not the public. :) Anyone know the status of that whole mess they started? Last I heard no one was considering it, and they were only making themselves look stupid. I don't even think they have "their" side of it posted on their website anymore. Probably because it made no sense, LOL!

Come on Alberto, bring the rain to NC!


weathercore.com
- fine collection of weather links.
what do the blobs to the far east and the one in the lesser antilles look like today?
000
WTNT61 KNHC 131646
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

...ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR ADAMS BEACH...ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...AROUND 1230 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Weather456

If thats so, at least we'll have time to prepare for some of them.
Still raining in Tally...
124. PBG00
wasn't 2004 a cape verde year?
I want some invest models for the Antillies blob... Anyone know where any are? Drawings, not animated, LOL

PBG - Yes it was.. Ivan was a Cape Verde storm...
I love TWC, but I wish they would explain dynamics a little more in their tropical update, since they say they are the hurricane experts. Thank goodness for this site.
128. unc70
Anyone know why the models and forecast seem so "certain" that Alberto will remain over land up through the Carolinas? To me, it has consistently seemed on course to emerge in the Atlantic somewhere in Georgia.

I have a lot of experience growing up in SE NC -- a boyhood filled with Hazel, Connie, Diane, Ione, ... and more recently Bertha, Fran, Floyd, even Ophelia -- and I have been seeing the CofC moving more E than N.
129. PBG00
2004..not a good year..thanks pensacola
It would be nice to have a little break between systems though, all these Whirlie Birds out there play heck on the sleeping habits, lol.
what do the blobs to the far east and the one in the lesser antilles look like today?

any links or info ... PLEASE???
Hi!
This was a good practice run for us here on the Nature Coast. We got 2.91" of rain and wind has not been a problem - highest gust here was 10mph.
They came around last night for us to evacuate but being a good 15 miles from the gulf we decided not to but the RV was gassed and ready to go!
I have links to satellite loops of the tropical waves/blobs in my blog (only the one off of Africa is shown to develop though).
One of the open Atlantic waves looks amazingly organized today. Look at that banding!
Posted By: PBG00 at 5:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2006.
wasn't 2004 a cape verde year?

2004 had 5 Cape Verde storms (Danielle, Frances, Ivan, Karl, and Lisa).
Houstonian - Boy do I know that feeling, lol

The blob east of the antillies looks good... I don't have a link though :-(

Colby - that is the wave that the GFS says will develop, the 12z run still has it.
FLMAMA were in fl are you at??
WSI - Nice link. I especially like the graphic of the 100 Meter Potential SST forecast. Look at that blob in the Central Gulf! 100 meters down, and still above 25 degrees C! According to the blog Dr. Jeff posted awhile back, that blob should slowly drift west, while a new loop closes off over time. Looks a lot like the setup last year, when Rita passed over the deep pool of warm water in the West Central Gulf.

Very informative, a keeper.
By the way, for other satellite images, go here.
141. PBG00
Thanks louastu.....lost power for 10 Days after Frances..got it back just in time do clean up and lose it again for another 6 days after Jeanne
Michael - Another nice site I was unaware of...added to my bookmarks. Thanks!

I like using the GHCC site a lot, but it gets really overloaded anytime there is trouble in the tropics.
Yeah, I know that's the GFS' little prodigy, and it looks like it was right.
"PBG - Yes it was.. Ivan was a Cape Verde storm..."

Yup...highest single-storm ACE ever, too, I think...Ivan was truly a monster storm...I'm so glad it didn't hit Tampa Bay like it was originally forecast to...WHEW!!!
Michael, those loops are in Java - you can't post them directly.
Yup...highest single-storm ACE ever, too, I think...Ivan was truly a monster storm...I'm so glad it didn't hit Tampa Bay like it was originally forecast to...WHEW!!!

Not quite. Link
Speaking of TWC, I tried to catch up on Alberto this morning (before going to my computer), and switched on TWC. They had 1 min. of programming followed by 10 min. of commercials!! I ended up going to FOX News and got more information on Alberto faster than TWC!! And it was just as informative!!
Yeah...I was wondering about that 1899 storm...but how accurate were the measurements back then, without aircraft or satellites? I don't know if you could make a good comparison. Ivan is by far the highest-ACE storm of modern times, though.

BTW...can you imagine the ACE of Katrina, Rita, or Wilma if they had been Cape Verde storms? YIKES!!!
weather channel BLOWS ... no PUN intended
I believe Dog back in the mid-1900s is the highest ACE, but his strength is believed to have been overrated.
Looks like Alberto is all the way inland now...we've got blue skies and puffy white clouds here in Tampa.

That's one for Florida! Who's next???
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 20W/21W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 7N. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN
14W-27W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS WAVE AND TRACK IT TO THE WNW NEAR 15 KT
AS A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM.


we wave to start watching this one......
Unc70 I'm also in SE NC and remember Fran and the recent ones. I am in Fayetteville where in NC are you at? I don't know but they have flood watches up for Lumberton and areas south to Wilmington and the NC/SC border so maybe they do expect Al to come up our way plus I've seen storms change paths once they come inland and start interacting with the land (and we have that front draped across the south)
The EPAC invest is looking pretty good.

BHFLChick
In Homosassa on the Eastside of 19
anyone like that photo I took last night?
tropicalstorm006,

You should read my blog. It is about Fran.
we wave to start watching this one......
yes, however the models also dissipate it. Still interesting though.
The one Dr. Masters posted?

If so, then yes, it is a very nice picture.
yes fly, very nice.
Anyway, I am going to get off for a little bit.
164. PBG00
is it typical to have waves that far out??? doesn't bode well for us east coast floridians come august
what models?do they have them out already for the new wave?
Thanks folks for the pat on the back
BTW in Tampa it is gustier right now then its been since this whole thing started.
Interesting comment on Dr. M's blog for Arlene last year (which had a total of 80 comments for the entire storm!!!)

Posted By: ralsa at 7:34 PM GMT on June 12, 2005.
How right you are Dr. Masters about the media "Over Hyping" this storm. It is so sad how they use the fears of last years "Wicked" season to sell their papers. From my perspective, the Weather Channel did their viewers a huge disservice in reporting this storm.

Case in point. The day Arlene was named a TS, the Weather Channel stated it had winds of 24 MPH. Five minutes later it was 28 MPH. When the finally put their graphics on the screen within 10 minutes, the storm had sustained winds of 30 MPH. There were other inconsistencies, but I believe you get my point.

Those in harms way should get their information from Weather Underground or the NHC.
Amazing difference between the activity on this blog this year over last year! I am certainly paying a lot more attention to the Atlantic than I ever have in the past.
well pu OneDay
171. PBG00
was on the blog all last year..knew wilma step by step and got the most accurate info from this sight
I agree on getting info from NHC & those that don't have outside intrests such as ratings & Disney.

Nice pic earthydragonfly

Guygee~ IWIN won & lives on...

best if i go research it myself,,, wink wink lol
We really should start a campaign to keep local stations using NWS information rather than feed Crappuweather.
Those 2 waves look interesting. I'd give it a a good chance 1 will develop. I still think this year has the potental to be as bad or worse than last. They all said '05 wouldn't be as bad as '04.

This site does throw out some good products & even better for members:)
The Cyclone phase evolution page was updated in the Eastern Caribbean I see.

Alberto has been wonderful for rain here in North Central Florida. Posted a couple of photos from my place its greened up nicely after two days of rain.
You're right Colby.

Alberto will restrengthen when it enters the Atlantic...possibly significantly, depending on how long it stays over land.
178. PBG00
skyepony, better for members how?
I am surprised that nobody has commented in my blog on the tropical waves and possible storm...
very interesting indeed if we get a June Cape Verde...double check your supplies people
I completely agree PBG00 Had I listened to our locals in West Palm, I would not have been as prepared as I was. They were talking Tropical Storm the day before it hit.
PBG00 - spend $10 and you will know what everybody means by 'better for members'.

By the way, don't even think about signing up at AccuWeather, as some others have done (to read what Bastardi says).... it costs about $250 a year!
183. PBG00
My friends thought I was crazy for shuttering up...weagle boy was a bit behind
I don't know guys I"m confused! first on the trop. wx map they have Alberto as a TD then they have him as a TS up around the SC area but they still have Alberto over land thats why I'm confused. Also on nws site trop. storm warnings are now moved up to the SC area. Also they had flood watches up for SC and those have moved up to central NC. Everything is shifting north and slightly to the left or west.
185. PBG00
10 bucs? thats it?
I knew about 3 days in advance from this site it would be at least a Cat 2 and not dissipate much over land at all.
I am speaking of Wilma
I'm in Greenville NC (halfway b/w Raleigh and coast). Any guesses on how much rain I get from AL?
is it crazy that Alberto looks kinda good onverland? I can tell where the center is and it has a (pretty much) coma shape now and to me I didn't see the comma shape or really a center when it was over the water.
lol, PP.
191. PBG00
was a bit surprised how hard the 2nd half of wilma was for us pulse
Yes, PP. Weatherunderground is a best kept secret!
floodzone I'm in Fayetteville, NC and they have us under a flood watch also Harnett county I'd go check the NWS site it'll tell you.
Do I see it correct that the GFS has the Bermuda High going up to 1040MB?
The earliest forming Cape Verde storm I can find, is Hurricane Bertha of 1996 (July 5).
ts006, the Raleigh office seems to have been proactive in your guys case... none of the Newport/ Morehead cwa is under flood watch. Guess our office is waiting a little longer...
floodzone they have you getting heavy rain tonight through wed. night from 1-2 inches wed/wed. night but you're not included in the flood watch.
PBG00~ ya get the option 40 back on the radar loop instead of 6. No ads (seemed to load quicker). Acsess to the links. Can you get to Aaron's wireless phone & gadjet packages without it?

Agreed on the restrengthin of Alberto, only if it tracks more east back to the ocean...
Bertha was fun. I have summers off and was the only storm I could enjoy. All others happened after school had started (I teach). Fran came later that year... This may be the summer of Cape Verde.
I guess you're right floodzone cuz Ft. Bragg is talking bout closing/early closing Wed. and during Fran they stayed open!
Through Jeanne, Frances and Dennis I remember staying up all night worriying and watching BayNews9 trying to figure out of a tornado was going to rip away my house. Last night- I woke up, logged on- chatted with Hillsborough and a few others. It was very calming to feel informed and to know what was happening across the bay. I'm SO thankful to have Weatherunderground and I'm sure I'll feel that way many more times this hurricane season.
202. PBG00
O.K. I am a member as of...now
thats cool what do you teach Floodzone? I'm a Sub. teacher for Cumberland County.
I only discovered the blog portion of wxunderground a couple of days ago... I love it! We can ALL speculate together. Where else do you find so many that share your passion?
205. PBG00
Having been lucky to only go through 1's and 2's..Frances Jeanne Wilma in palm beach county..I am a bit uneasy about what this season might bring ie a major cane
Physics and earth science. Until recently, school started for me around the 1st of Aug :-(

Ocean water's not very warm then... I like the new state law that pushed the opening date back to Aug 25th!

Isabel's eye passed just to my east in 2003 by about 25 miles... we got little damage and just one county over it was incredible!! Power out for a month in many places! Strange what these canes can do!
wouldn't be something if all three developed into stroms that would be unheard of.....however I don't see the one in the caribbean turning into anything. the one's in the Atlantic look impressive
209. unc70
TS006, I live in Chapel Hill, but have property near Swansboro, near Jacksonville, and on Emerald Isle. A sister lives on the sound in Atlantic Beach. Lots of family all over the place down there. They were in Onslow County before the Great Hurricane of '52 destroyed the Court records (that was 1752)!

I agree about the possible interactions with that cold front. The last few days with the front may have been worse than what Alberto will do to NC. I cannot remember ever seeing so much lightning as a couple of nights ago here and the next night more your way. I should have captured the WU radar showing the lightning.

I was looking at the detailed wind direction/speed forecast maps at weather.gov (GFS-based) and they don't appear consistent over time. They have the eye going up to west of Augusta then heading nearly due east for a while, then north to about Fayetteville, and finally NE over Pamlico Sound and into the Atlantic near Nags Head. It could happen that way, but I have doubts.

BTW Ophelia last year did extensive damage along EI and the rest of NC coast without officially coming on shore. The eye was so large that the eyewall was across Emerald Isle and into the sound yet the center of the eye remained 10-20 miles offshore. 85 mph winds coming off the sound damaged a lot of Salter Path and Atlantic Beach.


Woa Things just took a turn for the worse here I see Alberto has taken a hard right, shear kicken in? gatta go re secure. Really Gusting! Look out Jax!
2004 in Charley passed 30 mi north of me in charolette county and Wilma in 2005 passed 30 miles south of me in Collier county. Im in Ft Myers in FL. if anyone knows where that is. The way I figure it this year a storm is going right in between those 2
Actually the shear kicked in cleared off the upper level stuff. Sending it this way.
Doesn't alberto look better since landfall? (at least his visible) He was a funny storm. Looked completely defeated with 70mph winds...looks more tropical at 40.
214. unc70
floodzonenc,

The water temps off Emerald Isle were already warm by Memorial Day weekend this year. It was downright comfortable, almost tepid, in May! Unless things change, it will be nearly boiling by this August.

Even as a foolish teenager in the 1960's, it was usually too cold to swim until into June. November 1 was probably warmer than June 1.
TS006, speak of the devil, our cwa just issued that flood watch at 301EST. Guru, hope you're wrong about your cane (unless you want one). I hate to admit but I get mixed emotions... I've been through Hurricane Flood (I mean Floyd)as well as several lesser storms and I can't help but feel excited when they're on the way and disappointed when they turn away...
I obviously DON'T own beach property (since I teach) but we usually go to Kill Devil Hills. They have low 70s in June and July and occasionally winds bring it down to 55 (happened 2 summers ago). I'll have to start frequenting Atlantic Beach and EI more...
Al looks like he is moving ene.
218. PBG00
Wilma passed right over us on her way out..we all ran out in the eye to clear the storm drains..then her backside hit hard
unc70, tropicalstorm006, floodzonenc

I know yer hoods.. I grew up about 20 miles north of Ft. Bragg. Spend many of summers at Holden's Beach and Emerald Isle.

I been north of the Mason Dixion for going on 11 years (2 years in Toronto, the rest in Rochester, NY).
Alberto does look at least as good over land as he did over sea, which is weird. Precip pattern reflects this (one can make out the center of the storm clearly now). Be interesting to see how he further develops once he hits the Atlantic, esp. if that happens sooner than expected..
orion, you must be a big fan of lake effect snow by now! You know we're lucky to get 4 inches in a winter...
we're lucky to get 4 flakes in 10 winters..lol
wait a tic, orion you said you moved 11 years ago? That's when our hurricane activity started up in earnest. Freaky!
LOL ..whose earnest?? LOL
Houston in the summer... hot as hell on the outside... 64 degrees inside every public building. Walking outside buckles your knees!

Off to make storm preparations (haircut)!
Bye all!
yes flood .. my knees were buckled a few minutes when i walked outside the bldg. for lunch... can only imagine what august will be like.... this time of year we are either gettin pounded by tropical or slop.. or much more likely its just hot as hell.. either way not much fun to be outside right now
I went on small wallks during the eyes of ivan and opal, just cause i was getting restless since it had been raining for about 12 hours.

Alberto developed a portion of an eyewall just offshore even though his winds were weakening, so yea, he isnt exactly going to be well behaved over land.
The shear is associated with the front from yesterday - which Alberto seems to have crossed through. He is looking healthier now. Hes being blown but there is growth in his bands.
More stuff going on! I'm sure it was mentioned earlier but I don't feel like re-reading through 224 comments...besides it might be morth mentioning again for emphasis purposes:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

[...]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 20W/21W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 7N.
THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN
14W-27W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS WAVE AND TRACK IT TO THE WNW NEAR 15 KT
AS A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM.


(This is the one that the GFS has been persistent in developing in its last few runs. Link)

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD NEAR 37W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT BASED UPON A 09 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD CURVATURE AND AN INVERTED V-PATTERN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LIE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 32W-44W.
(The one we were looking at last night, though not as impressive looking. Link)

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A MODERATE TO STRONG
SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
(This is the one the CMC apparently wants to develop, and is the one of greatest concern due to its proximity. Link)

Looks like things won't get boring after Alberto's dissipation.
230. unc70
floodzonenc

Storm prep. is buying plenty of beer, wine, TP -- the real essentials. None of that bread and milk for me (lactose sensitive).

Plenty of cold beer made me a hero after Fran.

Anybody wanna bet this is the year we get three June storms? =]
Afternoon all. Have not been watching too much of Al or the waves today as I have not been feeling to well... Anywho enough of that.

For those that have not seen I have created a site that will hopefully make it easy for everyone to find all of the best model, imagery, and weather data pages on the web. It is also like a rookie training center, although the site is still evolving. There is a lot of great information here. These are soem of the bet sites on the web for weather data.

StormJunkie.com
quake . hey im at work and cant really study the satellites right now.. which of those 3 systems in your opinon has the most potential to develop into a major hurricane at this point?
I do not want to believe what my eyes are seeing. 3 possible systems out there? I mean stop the press already!!

And for the newbies...welcome to the group.

(watch out for Stormtop ) I have my resons lol
yeah i think we have a day or 2 and that wave should be ready. any way i nam so ready lol. wave is looking nice
Haha, we sure love bashing ol' ST don't we? :-)
This is cool watch the center reform SSW after it is blown NNE.
lol yall leave st alone i love his passion he just says anything sometimes lol. like the trough is dead its stalled lol. even when satelite imagery showed it was clearly diving south lol good times. woudln;t be the same with out stomtop
in a lil cousin kinda way...sure
just started my first blog ever!...check it out...
Posted By: Houstonian at 7:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2006.
quake . hey im at work and cant really study the satellites right now.. which of those 3 systems in your opinon has the most potential to develop into a major hurricane at this point?


Lol Houstonian, that is a nearly impossible question to answer. But what I can say is that the one I would say that would have the biggest potential to possibly develop into the next depression would be the one in the East Caribbean. If it's strong enough to fight the shear it's going through, then imagine what potential it has once it gets into a much less sheared environment. The one in the central atlantic doesn't look too impressive currently (though it was mentioned in the 1130 AM EDT tropical weather outlook), but the one off the African coast looks very impressive for so early in the year. So I would rank that as the next highest potential, with the one in the central Atlantic being third in line.

What does everyone else think?
The one off of Africa already has a circulation, per the NHC. Furthermore, the GFS develops it. Animation Phase Analysis/track
I agree quake.
The wave in the east Atlantic is interesting, but this is still June. The water temp north of 10 degrees and east of about 45 degrees is too cold to support tropical development. If the wave/low follows the GFS forecast path, it will die over cold water. The wave/low needs to stay below 10 degrees until it gets much closer to the Caribbean.
Do any of you think the atlantic waves could develop? The one off Africa looks impressive but, this doesn't happen this early in the year.
the wave in the caribbean have a high chance...wind sheer is decreasing and its in waters if above 80 temps...dont forget the Caribbean is favaorable this time of year...the waves out the atlantic is 50/50.
Looks like the area west of the big blob off Africa is breaking up a bit.
Also where can a person get links to the models like the gfs, etc.?
Actually the water is at least 80F up to at least 11N...so yeah as long as it stays below that then it will have warm waters...plus the shear is low as almost the entire north Atlantic basin is dominated by high pressure.
I think this year we could be seeing more storms being named as tropical storms then we have forecasted now. Instead of twenty I say twenty - five. This year could and possibly be a continuation of last year's abnormal and bizarre hurricane season. After last season not including the Cape Verde Season in the record year we could possibly pass last year's record storm total. Just my 16 year old theory.
I think the center of Alberto is crossing Valdosta,GA now.
I don't think that the water is too cold - look at what happened last year. Furthermore, this map clearly shows that 80 degree water isn't needed for a tropical storm or hurricane.
i need a link to the computer models
Is there a count on how many Tornadows where kicked up by Alberto?
Here is a link to models; this is what I used in my blog.
based off what i saw b4 bed last night quake, ill agree with all of that....


just wanted your opinion man, didnt expect you to tell me any exacts ..( that would be impossible)... so thanks, good job
Cloudsat images of Alberto are now online:

http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA08538
I know everyone is thinking about Alberto, but has anyone noticed that big wave in the Eastern Caribbean? It looks pretty healthy.
MichaelSTL which sheer value do we use in the models
primez --first read .. then POST.. lol you'll save some face that way :-)
Sorry. I hadn't realized it was paginated. This is my first time logging on since January.
hey.. just wanted to check in and say.. REALLY REALLY gusty here in Jax. I just went across one of our many bridges, and I must say.. I got a little nervous!

All of the models should be used for shear, since they will all be different. Also, if one model shows a storm developing and this says that it is a non-frontal, warm-core (tropical) cyclone, then shear has to be favorable, at least to the point where it can develop (the cyclone phase analysis link is at the bottom of this page; you also need to know where the storm is located to know which circle to click on).
You can find links to most of the models, imagery and other tropical data on the web at StormJunkie.com also. There is some great WU blogger storm video there as well.

Sorry ya'll in and out. Trying to work some things out for the site. Finally starting to feel a little better.

SJ
SJ -- quit advertising (we got it)... LOL
Hey All,
Sugarloaf Key, Key West here. Been reading your posts and i have to say you all are very well informed.
Not a weather Geek, however a charter captain that has been here all my life and seen some storms. Namely Last few years. If you all need a current observ report from the Keys feel free to chime me when the time comes.I generally do not leave. (have not yet anyway)
Not a big fan of the medias coverage of Albero. I think it was a bit of a drama hunt. Might desensitize (sp?) folks for the real go around..
Keep up the great posts.
Hi everyone we got a LOT of rain and wind, still getting the wing I lost 1 tree that fell on my shed but I think it is ok (I hope) looks like we might have a few more waves out there to keep an eye on... Hope everyone is doing good!
Whats going on Houstonian is it hot or what in h-town?
yes wombats its hot as hell.... need a good tropical splash.. hasnt rained a drop here in weeks.. thermometer in the car at lunch said 101.. granted thats on the road w/ all the cars but still
God I hate summers in this town ten years to long for me.. Nice tropical storm would be good then we can have mesquitoes as big as dogs flying around.
Hey Houstonian. I'm in Lake Charles and our radar shows some pretty heavy TStorms between you and BMT. I wonder if you'll get in on that. As hot as it is, anything that develops will have one heck of a thermal assist.
35 years too long for me .. late may thru sept is really no fun to be outdoors here... its just knee buckling heat...
you must have been here for alicia what part of town did you ride it out in? I was here for Allison and the cluster of an evacuation called Rita that I chose not to participate in. I loved it sat back drank some beer and watched people run out of gas on I-10.
The heat and mosquitos in Hou is why they originally built the Astrodome. Seems that only the die hards would come out to watch the old Colt 45's under those obscene conditions.
SWla looks to far east unless your around baytown or something. Rain whats rain we live in the freakin desert.
did the same for rita..lol i wasnt going ANYWHERE.... and been in NW part of town the whole time (35 years).. and remember alica clearly her eye passed over nicely... we sat out in our garage until the winds came back form the other way..lol

and YES!!!! we are under a severe T-storm warning w/ some good rumblers building to the east and moving west... just now crossing i-45 cooridor
Swla how did you turn out during Rita not to much damage I hope. Talk about getting cought with your pants down I bet you didn't have to much time to get ready since everyone thought it was going to hit more west of you.
It's been very hot and DRY here. Even when we were getting rain a couple of weeks ago we missed our fair share of it. Been watering alot...just got the water bill, I'm afraid to open it.
Houstonian, I've got severe TStorm envy.
I hear ya I'm in Katy and I figure we are so far north it would take a beast of a storm to get bad around here. My moto is if your town is the first one they predict it will hit then your safe because it will move left or right of you.
should start raining where i am w/ in the next 30 mins!!! oh man .. im giddy!!! LOL
The only thing I was behind on was getting my plywood. My brother and I stayed for Rita, sent my wife and parents to Shreveport. Since we stayed we had plenty of time to board up.

It was a fascinating experience. We missed the eye, got the eyewall though. I'd say I watched 100 to 120mph gusts from my porch. I stayed outside the most of the time, staying on the leeward side of the house. We got some damage, luckilly no trees near the house. Had some shingle damage on a "lifetime" slate roof.
New blog up.
Nice you did better than most that was a powerful storm. I remember Hurricane Frederic in 79 when I was in Bama and it was quite the experience Rita was similar in speed so I know what you mean.
and wombats .. if a good cat 3 comes ashore in galveston .. you better beleive katy will get all it wants!!
Are we staying here or going over to the new blog?
Just saw the radar again, looks like Hou is about to get a good one.
If it came ashore around the matagorda bay area it would be a bit dicey would put the area on the front right side galveston we would be 60 or so miles west.
I'll go over for a bit..
000
ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

I still say this stuff has to be watched. How many times last year did we run into situations where the NHC said "development is not anticipated" and "conditions are unfavorable for development," yet we saw development anyway? But this is the first time they mention the E Carib wave in the Outlook, so that must mean something...
That wave looks like it has potential. How are the models playing it?
Well the CMC 00Z model run forms something around central Cuba and moves it westward into the Gulf and turns it towards Louisiana. (You can see that too in the 12Z run, but for some reason it only goes up to 72h so you can't see the full run of it.) And, of course, the CMC was the first to pick up on Alberto's formation...
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

i realized a pattern that STEWART person have been wrong on numerous times.
QUESTION ABOUT WATER TEMPS

Link

WHY ARE THEY DROPPING? AND WHAT IS THAT COLD CURRENT INVADING THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC??
And will it reverse itself?
Or is it a glitch?