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Alberto nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:16 PM GMT on June 12, 2006

The latest report from the hurricane hunters found winds of 74 knots (85 mph) at flight level of 1500 feet, and a central pressure of 997 mb, down 4 mb from the 8am EDT penetration. After surviving some very strong wind shear last night, Alberto has reorganized, and a new center has formed under the deep convection on the east side of the storm. The old center is still visible on satellite imagery, drifting southward over the Gulf of Mexico. Spiral banding has appeared on both visible satellite imagery and the Tampa radar animation.


Figure 1. Accumulated rain so far from Alberto, as estimated by the Tampa radar.

All this strengthening occurred in the face of strong wind shear of 20-30 knots, which is unusual. I was calling for a 10% chance of Alberto becoming a hurricane, but Alberto certainly has other ideas! The storm's central pressure was a very unimpressive 1006 mb last night when I thought the storm might get ripped apart, but the 9 mb drop in pressure since then is an impressive achievement for a storm under 20-30 knots of wind shear. The shear has not changed much in the past 12 hours, nor is it expected to do so over the next few days. This should limit Alberto's intensification. Hurricane Ophelia last year strengthened in the face of similar amounts of shear, and I anticipate that Alberto will grow no stronger than Ophelia. Maximum sustatined winds of 80 mph are probably the highest we will see from Alberto.

The major threat of damage with Alberto now appears to be storm surge, with a surge of 8 - 10 feet possible over portions of the west coast of Florida. The waters off the coast are very shallow for a long stretch, which allows a rather large surge to build up. High winds will be a problem for mobile homes, and cause moderate tree damage and power outages in the affected area. Heavy rain will also be a concern, but as I discussed yesterday, this may be more of a boon than a bane given Florida's moderate drought conditions. Rain amounts of up to six inches have fallen in portions of the Keys and Naples, Florida.

We'll update this blog later today as conditions warrant.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I've never seen a storm suck up so much dry air and survive, but this is the new era. After the last two years and now this storms uncanny persistance in the face of dire atmospheric conditions, well this years gonna be a doozy. Been a good ride on the blog so far, some of you could be a little nicer to each other though.
Here's a photo of a dead storm! Not!
Link
The way I see it, it's not that important whether Al gains another 5 or 10mph in windspeed to attain Cat 1 status. The most notable thing is that he got as strong as he/she/it currently is. Al was touted as only being a "rain event".
Jeb Bush thinks she is a hurricane.
i will give you alittle thought i learned from a experiecced phd
forecaster storms headed where this one is at the direction weaken as they
get closer to land i will give you some past examples 1995 allison, 1996 josephine,
2001 barry 2000 helene 2004 bonnie sj or hawk you can comment on this also nhc always predicts them
to turn north over cuba and head northinto st marks area happened once 1935 keys storm time it got there it was a1
this area is the no mans land for ts lol i usually dont agree with lefty but he is right this time althoughi was wrong about intesity
but right about track but anyone with experience could see
this would not move west because of the roadblock of dry air hey leftywe should not brag about the track ray charles could have seen that lol ps except st the sleep doctor
sorry so long.
Hmmm.... alot of dry air in the center on the water vapor loop. Seems he has had his last gasp. WOW I watched that thing really intensify for a few hours this morning. Thought for sure it was getting its act together. If it would have slowed or stalled there this morning Whew..... Who knows????
disneylogic - Spirited discussion and debate can be fun, but sometimes people take it personally, that is when the problems start. Then you get a lot of "yes it is", "no it isn't", YES! NO! IS TOO! IS NOT! then it devolves into name calling.

That is what I meant by "bickering", when there is no more logical arguments and people get their feeling hurt. Anyways, just IMHO...

Cautionary note on storm catagory, remember Katrina hit Miami as a cat 1, but blew out windows rated at 120mph, then hit the MS coast as a Cat 3, but with a Cat 5 surge (around 30 feet). These puppys aren't the storms we are use too. If a storm is headed your way, prepare, that is all.
The Center is moving more East than North ..
Link
GRDRATNAVARRE Thats what I'm saying always prepare for the worst. New rules with weather these days & I wont go ranting the reason. I am sure many have seen my blog.
lol not shouting your name. had to copy paste it.lol
Tampajoe
The stuff from the north is pushing it to the East.
a little comment on katrina living here on ms coast where it hit
it was a 5 and huge just hours before landfall so surge was cat 5, no doubt.
but living in rural jackson county i can tell you that wind damage alone freddy was worse in 79.
because he strengthed till land fall 132 sustained 3 or 4 take your choice and pascagoula was on the west side so the surge was not as big a issue
It's been overcast here since lunchtime. Temps are around 83 F now, and we've got steady winds at about 16mph, with gusts up to 20 or so. Whether it's due to Al or not, I don't know. I do know I saw those typical outrunner clouds, as I call them, this morning. The kind I only see in advance of a 'cane. Bright sunshine, blue skies and there comes these small, low clouds shaped like dollops of cookie dough , all in a line, moving fast in a circular motion.
I always refer to hurricanes as "it". They should have a designation instead of a name.
He will obtain hurricane strength nad maybe a little more. But what are the models saying about the East Coast. Any possible strengthening after he comes off the Carolinas.
I have family in Valdosta Ga. Any chance of Al tracking across them?
A little further on Katrina (Miami). That storm had more lightning & thunder than any storm I have ever been through. Also the strongest bands were on the South side of the storm. Telling you we are in different times now with the weather. Everyone keeps denying it. So many very very unusual anomalies with the weather in the last few years.
The Center is finally wrapping some clouds in.
They will build and ultimately strengthen him.
Hello Hurricane Alberto
Told my brother in Slidell La. to get out of there cause this was one weird storm. Thank God he did. He went inland.
522. MZT
If Alberto follows the forecast track, I very much doubt he could survive a long march across GA, SC, NC. One golden rule of tropical storms (that does not *yet* seem to have changed), is that the center must remain over water.

Crossing FLA and part of southern GA, re-intensifying in the Gulf stream, would be more credible. Alberto could still become a really nasty Nor'easter before it's over...
Don't know how to tell yet but is Alberto getting organized or is it falling apart and will I see rain from him here in NC?
mobeel remember freddy kind of the forgotten storm but when it hit in 79
became the costliest hurricane up till that time and before gulf shores and dauphin island ares
were built up it was worse than ivan just not as built up just like ms for camille was not as built up whats your take
Thanks, to both who answered. I have family in Valdosta, but, I am in the Houston/Galveston Metro......I've lived here all my life and only experienced Alicia in 1983. I was living in W.Yorks in England during Allison, so didn't get to experience that lovely lady.

Alicia scared the hell out of me.
Fshhead - I have to agree, last year was unprecendented and almost unbelievable.

This year hasn't started any better, as I cannot recall any Gulf storm in the past that was so weak with the circulation totally exposed, that then recovered to near hurricane status within 18 hours...maybe some of those with longer memory of storms in the Gulf can suggest a storm similar to Alberto in it's rapid recovery from near-death, but I cannot recall one.
MZT couldn't the front draped across NC help in a way energize Alberto so he could make it across SC & NC? Hurricane Fran came across NC and the heavy rain and flooding we had earlier helped Fran maintain strength even though it was over 100 miles inland at least this is what our local weatherman said had happened.
Windows - I'm in Valdosta now, things are quite here. We expect lots of rain and a little wind. We are so far inland, it should be an easy one. Only have to worry about nados. I thinks we're gonna be on the weak side anyway, unless something drastic happens. Shouldn't be bad at all. On the other hand, we'll know when it's all over. I do have all my hurricane gear ready just in case;)
He could very well likely still at least restrengthen to tropical storm status and give New England some rain that we don't really need, but with some wind which could result in tree damage and some minor building damage. Any thoughts.
I'm calling for 90 mile an hour cane' landfall just south
of cedar key, and a 9 to 12 foot surge on the lower western
coast of Florida. Tommprpw is suppose to be an astronomically
high tide, so that can only build onto albertos surge
So if Alberto can get his act together he will be a VERY powerful storm
dont take him lightly folks.
SAINTHURRIFAN
Dauphin island is not that built up after Katrina. There are alot of boneheads rebuilding. They need to wright the west side of it off. the last 10 miles of the island where you could drive to the west end has over a mile long cut out of it that is pretty deep water now. Sand Isl almost touches the D.I. peir now.
The only reason why these past years have been wierd is that the we like to think we can control tropical systems......
We like to say things like ---We cant have a june hurricane, wind sheer will kill a the storm and it cant regenerate completely........a tropical storm will likely not become a hurricane.....

Then when we see the storm do what we didnt want or expect...we jump and say its abnormal....

NWS website has local Hurricane statements up for SC and has heavy rain and winds in their forecast for Wed. I think the watches/warnings are starting to move up the coast now. What do you all think?
Also what do you all think of this splitting that has occured between al's northern and southern convection.
9 talking about freddy you dont remember freddy took out the dauphin island
bridge completly tore the island into sperate piecess
Ok, everyone, the radar and satellite loops show the rain to the north and east of the center stratiforming out. There are no longer any cold cloud tops anywhere near the center. The buoy just northeast of the center has the water temp down to 79F and wind of only 25 kts. Add the shear and dry air and Alberto is finished. It now appears likely the storm will limp into the coast as a moderate tropical storm.
Hey All,
Just wanted to say that I was wrong about this one...:-( sorry about that>>> anyway I was not sure after last night that it was even going to stay together but all I can say is wow. Now as for myself just wanted to say OPS and I will be better on the next 1...

I do want to say though after each post I made sure that it was my opinion, (no expert here)

Taco:-)
Still no rain here in Tallahassee.
weather456 i think people say this storm is abnormal because of 2005 hurricane season. Last year was the opposite of normal with many hurricanes that we hadnt seen in a while. This Hurricane Alberto was similar to many hurricanes of last year that simply didnt die in conditions they seemed should have. Last year was abnormal, thus they call this hurricane abnormal because it was a soldier like last years canes.
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2006



A tropical wave is adjusted ahead along 53w/54w S of 14n based
upon the satellite presentation and a few ship reports. This
wave remains fairly well defined with an inverted v-pattern
embedded within the ITCZ. The wave appears to be moving fairly
quickly near 20 kt and computer models suggest this trend to
continue bringing showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles
tomorrow and to the Greater Antilles late Wed/thurs.



Clusters of scattered moderate convection is
moving off the coast of Africa E of 17w from 3n-12n. This
moisture is associated with another tropical wave moving off the
coast. Models have this wave initialized fairly well. This wave
will be introduced in the 18z or 00z sfc analysis.



541. IKE
I think it's about finished too...then again after yesterday????

Storm is losing it rapidly on satellite...

Now watch it come back again...but I doubt it..but I wouldn't be shocked...but I doubt it..but I...er...forget it.
Weather456 - I don't know, I've been living in FL now since '93, and the last three years have gotten me spooked. Some say AMO, some say global warming (and some say both), but it is definitely different now. It is having a bad effect on the economy for most people (outside of the profiteers). Two years ago one of my sons ws supposed to start college in a small private school near Lakeland, FL, on a scholarship. Then came Charley, and part of the school was destroyed. He ended up starting late, and the eyes of both Francis and Jeanne crossed the same area while he was there, located just south of Lakeland in south central Florida. Everything around there was ripped up (mostly from Charley), and I doubt the more rural areas will ever be completely rebuilt, at least for a long time. The work of decades and generations of familes is being destroyed, maybe beyond recovery if these deadly seasons keep coming.
anyways there is central atlantic wave that might come TD 02 and one that is coming off of africa....
Looking at the sat loops, big al looks like he's trying another come back. I guess we'll see in the morning. This guy just don't know when to say when. Any chance of another come back, guys? I say 60/40.
yeah, I've seen the Hurricane statements for SC. How far inland do they issue them?
Even if it makes it out to the water on the other side only modest restrengthening could occur - the water is still kind of cold to support tropical development.
547. amd
i wrote off this storm last night, and then it rapidly intensified overnight and this morning.

However, with the lower ocean temperatures and the still high shear, it wouldn't surprise me if this storm limps into florida as a minimal or moderate tropical storm.

I think the chance for this storm to become a hurricane has passed. IMHO
Freddy was the worst I have been through. We had 16 trees down with 6 on the roof. Many tornados. Took out the whole top floor of the building where my mom worked. Nothing was over the ground floor except the floor for second story.
guygee, the last few years has been really bad even back in 2003....Now hears the line up...Noaa and global warming are both corect

we are in a multidecadal phase but each active deacade is getting more active and each less active decades is seeing more storms due to global warming
to add to that the next active decade will see a higher amount of storms than 1995-2005.
551. IKE
GRDRATNAVARRE said..."Looking at the sat loops, big al looks like he's trying another come back."...

Either my eyes are bad and I've got my glasses on, or your looking at a different storm or what's left of it.

The center is completely exposed again...all of the deep convection is north and east of it. That's a dying storm on life support again.
Tazmaniana way to early for storms from there
we are in a multidecadal phase but each active deacade is getting more active and each less active decades is seeing more storms due to global warming

K, I did not want to throw it out there but, since it has that is my humble opinion. Too many anamolies past few years!!!!
Posted By: 147257 at 11:11 PM GMT on June 12, 2006.
Tazmaniana way to early for storms from there

New rules my friends.... Expect the unexpected!
we've had rain here in pensacola for the past hour with lots of lightning!
been on life support before, he's got good circulation and is pulling it in from the north, i'm looking at the short wave loop. then again i'm not even an amatuer.
there doesnt seem to be much evidence of strengthening occuring quite yet... in so far as a new england storm - it doesnt look like it will be moving over water as of right now, but if it did move over water, its far too cold, with far too much sheer to support developement
dry air almost splittin it in half. He's on his last gasp!!!!
to speckle trout head since you did not say what kind of fish you are lol
lets see 2004 2005 7 bad hurricanes 95 to 2003
95 by the way tarted the upswing only 3 major landfalls opal
fran and brett. before 95 in a 30year period thier was betsy camille eloise
celia freddy allen alecia elena HUGO ANDREW get the point and that was a down period
just so much media attention and hype do you think 10 years ago cnn and all these networks would be so hyped about such
a weak storm.
Weather456 - Personally I agree, but I just consider myself an educated layman on the topic. I can read the scientific literature with understanding of the concepts and the mathematics, but I do not do research or publish in the areas of atmospheric science, climatology, or meteorology.

If anything, I have some quibbles with the time series analysis and the concept of the AMO. Sure, there is an obvious temporal correlation in the record, but the "period" of the "oscillation" is a big question in my mind. I do not think we have a long enough accurate historical record to say that the current postive phase of the AMO will be "multidecadal"(pretty vague anyways) or last for a century or more.

I don't buy into Dr. Grey's thermohaline circulation explanation, as there is evidence that the downward convection of the more saline waters from tropical origins has actually decreased recently, in the past few years, and yet still we have had these incredible hurricane seasons.

So just another opinion of a "non-expert", take it with a grain of salt.
Posted By: SAINTHURRIFAN at 11:15 PM GMT on June 12, 2006.
to speckle trout head since you did not say what kind of fish you are lol
More like a bull dolphin or wahoo. Speckled trout?? c'mon LOL
one last thing had those bad storms in the 70s and 80s
when they were talking the opposite a ice age please guys dont let al and jipper gore getyou
all hyped like alot of folks are about our dying storm heading for storm deadmans land
Yea weather456, all the waves out there look unusually impressive.

Not necessarily MZT, if the majority of the clouds stay over water, it could last a lil while. Dont have anything to back that or anything, just a gut feeling as this storm has been so persistant.
dolphin is fine eating so is wahoo.
Goodbye Alberto, your in Wly shear country now, and with the troff above squeezing it's chao! This is not going to be a hurricane and its already collapsing. The centre of rotation is exposed now (you can see a faint 'eye') on IR.

Extratropical transition will begin once the eye itself moves on land as a shell.
Saint the media is hyped over Katrina/New Orleans. No offense to those people but stupidity with the levies got them. It's the folks that were in the Miss. areas I felt the worst for. They experienced Katrina dead on.
The buoy just northeast of the center now has wind down to 23 kts and a water temp down to 78.8F. On satellite Alberto increasingly has the appearance of an EastPac storm dying over cold water.
Posted By: SAINTHURRIFAN at 11:27 PM GMT on June 12, 2006.
dolphin is fine eating so is wahoo

Ahhhhh, not sure how to take that comment LOL
dolphin isn't a fish its a mammal so it can't be a dolphin
There is a dolphin fish sometimes called mahi mahi. mmmmmmmmmmm
LOL here we do. Technically the mammal is a porpoise. Fish is dolphin or mahi-mahi
There is a fish people call dolphin, I caught one once. It a beautiful multi-colored fish, and considered a delicacy.
oops here we go
575. IKE
The trough to the North of it/Alberto is merging and it's soon to be adious Al. I think.
Alberto looks like a subtropical storm.
dolphin is a fish also called mahi mahi in hawaii
thier are chicken dolphin which are small bull dolpins are large and
weigh up to 60 pounds i thought you were coastal guys yall dont fish not talking about flipper lol
come on fisherman help these guys
So have we see the bulk of what we are going to see from Alberto here in the Tampa/St Pete area?
Yea i always knew them as dolphin FISH till the Hawaii mahi thing caught on. BTW... I have caught some nice ones & yes very colourful & tasty!!!!!
Fshman, are you talking about the Corps of Engineers stupidity (now well-documented)? I assume that you are not talking about the citizens of New Orleans.
BTW... world record for bull dolphin is like 80 something pounds. Alot of 60 Lb.er's are caught.
Ok I've been tring to remember the song. I used the internet for the proper reason, looking up trivia. Barnes and Barnes song:
Fish Heads
Fish heads, Fish heads
Roly poly Fish heads
Fish heads, Fish heads
Eat them up, Yum
Dolphin is a fish, I just got back from the Keys and we caught about 30 of them. Most were schoolies but I did catch a big cow about 30 ounds and a bull about 45 or so. Let me also tell you they taste great on the grill!
Posted By: NOLA70117 at 11:40 PM GMT on June 12, 2006.
Fshman, are you talking about the Corps of Engineers stupidity (now well-documented)? I assume that you are not talking about the citizens of New Orleans.
Of course c'mon.
wahoo tastes much better than dolphin IMHO.
mobeel freddy got you good hah it was a month before we had power
i wonder why such a devastating storm seems to always be forgotten.
when you constantly here about fran francis jeanne which were much weaker.
i guess south la ms and ala until katrina just did not count like fla and east coast lol
Posted By: SaymoBEEL at 6:36 PM CDT on June 12, 2006.
Ok I've been tring to remember the song. I used the internet for the proper reason, looking up trivia. Barnes and Barnes song:
Fish Heads
Fish heads, Fish heads
Roly poly Fish heads
Fish heads, Fish heads
Eat them up, Yum
& I thought I was the only one who knows that song LOL
agreed 99 Wahoo is probably the 2nd best fish in the sea. Best is a lane or vermillion snapper cooked on the grill.
now anyone can tell me....all these NHC experts said on June 1 2006....we donot anticipate any storm forming soon....the sub-tropical jet stream wasnt suppose to weaken until about the 20th...
and now the TWC is saying the tropics are quiet with a tropical wake out there...

My question.....Is the NHC and other experts like Accuweather and TWC only getting better in track forecast?

and is getting more difficult to forecast what will happen to storm as it follows its track?

last...are they unestimating the storms ability to develop or pass through unfavorable conditions like high wind sheer and cool waters?
well i see yall do fish lol except lefty saying dolphin is not
and him on va coast shame he must have roomed with arron brooks lol
591. IKE
The highest wind I could find in Florida was 24 mph at Sarasota...slightly away from the center...I'm being humourous.

All other stations are reporting 15 mph or less. This storm might be losing it's punch and weakened on the 8 pm EDT advisory.
592. IKE
They call him Flipper..flipper...faster then lightning...hehehehe.......
Yo Ike, Iknow your breathing a sigh of relief after this morning.
http://www.acsonline.org/factpack/common.htm

http://www.fao.org/figis/servlet/species?fid=3130
They only thing I like better than watching weather is fishing!
596. IKE
Fshhead...I didn't get ONE drop of rain here. But I did see some clouds!!!!!!!!!!
fish head you cant beat biloxi bacon when its fresh
or pop-eye mullett as you know it as also bastardi said
in miidle of may that by june 10 development was likely in
the gulf he also said 2 weeks ago watch around the 20th could that be our
wave i do agree about nhc they dont predict anything till its already formed
and the weather other than lyons is horrible
Loki you the guy with the charter biz???
http://www.faqs.org/faqs/animals/dolphin-faq/part01/
Saint,
There is probably a math formula showing the correlation between the amount "air time" and the size of the market.

Mobile has always been the orphan stepchild for the state.
wheres st the sleep doctor next storm and he makes preditions on it we should treat
him as spam i really thought he would step to the plate lefty even though he fred astaired around
saying it outright lol
saymobeel, grew up in Mobile,on a 1/2 acre city lot, we had 65 trees down, 8 on the house, one speared the roof and the trunk came down in the middle of my parents bed, we were not there, my parents always evacuated, didn't have power for a month, even now, parts of the garden collapse where large tree roots and parts of trunks were
That's good news Ike. Ithought for sure this morning you guys were gonna get minimal hurricane there.
I'm a closet DR. Demento fan.
Fshhead,
Wahoo is the best to me but to each his own. I like all types of Sapper. Yellow fin Tuna is pretty good also.
I remember someone came and bought the timber. I remember the national guard came down and gathered government documents. No power for a month.
SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEEE BAY.
Per 8pm advisory...
Nope Fshhead, I just go to the Keys 2-3 times a year for the fishing.
Now on NOAA has the Cape and ISlands in 10 - 20% chance of T.S. force winds and the wind % for the North Carolina coast is around 10 - 20% for hurricane force winds. Any thoughts on this and what do the new models say about his future path, and has the 8pm advisory come out yet.
Saymo, boy that brings back the memories of Andrew for me. Wheeew, that was one mean storm.
Yea I will never forget the national guard & some of the military being here. Seeing all the equpment. Saw a double bladed chopper land at a school in Cutler Ridge. Still shell shocked from the storm & seeing all that was real weird. Never want to go through that again
must be alot of really young folks on here mobeel
we started talking about freddy and they said who what when lol
going to gulf shores this weekend with wife at her mothers condo but i hate the beach
im am a old country boy i love those smokie mts love to live there. salt water is only good for two things
fishing and storms i want swim in it those ala coast bull sharks wreak havoc lol
Im glad the power thing has gotten better.12 hour outage for Ivan. 5 days for Katrin for me in Mobile. Providence Hospital grid.
Hi, all. First post of the season. Just clocked a whopping 9 mph wind here in Manatee County. (yawn)
LOL oh o.k. Frederic. I was wondering cause I did not remember "Freddie". Had to look. Pretty calm here in fla in the 70's .I am 41 & never really prepared for storm till Andrew.Boy I do now, thats for sure My motto "Prepare for the worst, Hope for the best"
Saint - I'm sure that all those FL storms were nothing like what you went through with Katrina, but they were bad enough to give me at least some idea. What happened to the folks in LA, MS and AL is beyond my comprehension, and I am pissed off and I will never forget.

I'm tired of hearing from people that it is all our fault because we live in the southeast near the coast. I'm happy if we use some of our tax money to help people caught disasters all over the country...earthquakes on the Pacific Coast, wildfires in the west, tornados in the midwest, flooding in the valleys all over the country. Nobody is immune.

The majority of casualties from tropical systems occur from inland flooding far away from the coasts. See
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/inland_flood.shtml

"In a study from 1970 to 1999, freshwater flooding accounted for more than half (59%) of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths. These floods are why 63% of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths during that period occurred in inland counties."

I think we should stop blaming each other and just help out our neighbors when they are in need, just like any civilized country.
I'm in Orlando, the wind is dead calm with a slight drizzle.
99 i live in vancleave about 8 miles noth of ocean springs
we had power witin 5 days after katrina the differrence with freddy
it blew down every tree and power pole in sight were not that many down in our community
after katrina actually less than elena another forgotten oh well look where it hit lol
That central Atlantic wave needs some more attention. It really points out at me this time around. If the forecast for the Bermuda High to start to take shape around the end of this week as the trough pushes off the coast, this could mean more about the Wave in the Central Atlantic. The path of Alberto from Accuweather.com suggests that Alberto could regain strength or strengthen, just like Wilma did after her landfall on Florida. Thoughts, I'd like some feedback on these two things please. Thank you
well said guygee god bless the people of florida escambia county in paticular was a great help to our community they said they were repaying the favor for ivan i will tell you this they thought ivan was bad till they saw the ms coast, and ivan was bad
About 3 weeks without power for me here in Kendall Miami & we have underground...
folks south of us where Andrew came in it was months to 6 months
Whats up cat1. Welcome back.

Check out the site to find all the latest information available. StormJunkie.com

SJ
Miss. got hammered. I will never forget the casinos picked up whole & moved. WOW
speaking of reentensifying and chaging direction 99
or mobeel remember crazy elena stalled at cedar key and came back and got us lol
yo saint, Elena was a cat 3?????
andrew was horrible like camille and charley but they were small
katrina was so large so was fredrick
Dont think Alberto will strengthen after it hits Florida because it will have to travel thru three more states before it reaches the Atlantic again..LOL
hot sea temps and low shear arent the only ingredients Tazmaniana

we will see Fshhead but this storm already made some nice unexpected things
yea SAINT, i remember that one. It made a loop
correct wahooo head lol came at us went east stalled 30 miles off cedar key
turned back opposite directioon and got us but in
talking about all these past storms i was only 4
but i will never forget hearing the old newscaster say 29 north 89.2 west movement nnw
max sustained winds 190mph we get dillys here in ms i wonder what these young folks that are so hyped
about this weak storm would with a lady called camille
guygee, only 30% of the residents of San Francisco have earthquake insurance, they are NO different than anyone else, rates are so high that most cannot afford it, from a comparison perspective, it's similar to those in New Orleans that did not have flood insurance, the difference in New Orleans being the high poverty rate
hey bob you could share a expert opinion on old freddy elena and a lady called camille
Loki240...I know the best fisherman in the lower Keys! Guy never fails to catch fish. Flats fishing, trolling or deep sea. Go here: www.finatic.com.
wow, 190 thats nasty. What winds at landfall??
This wave along 54 west continues to look somewhat more organized than all waves we have been tracking this season thus far. This wave will bring squally rainfall to the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
nac- by the time that alberto ends up in the water again... it will probably be an extratropical depression racing north along that cold front. I cant imagine it regenerating with 60-70 degree water off of the midatlantic states. The NE doesnt have much to worry about. Also, that wave doesnt warrent much attention quite yet, its farrr from developing. Keep an eye on it as it moves west for signs of development - but other then maybe a check on teh central atlantic satalite every 6 hours or so, not much attention is necessary quite yet.
btw my thinking the ts or hurriccane alberto will hit land more northly
Camille.... That one I know about...
Freakin' beast like Andrew!!!!!
RE: anyone spamming about fish... ^_^

Dolphin is the mammal...
Dolfin is the fish...and they are good eating.

Spelling is everything.
639. MZT
The infrared is showing warm air expanding around the center. Last night I wasn't ready to call it quits on this storm, but now I say 30/70 it survives as a tropical anything tomorrow. The environment is just as hostile as yesterday, and the water is cooler with land interaction beginning.

Alberto's last ace in the hole is dinural minimum.
Ack...I thought the spelling of dolfin v. dolphin was different. I've been tracking hurricanes since Andrew. Coral Gables, Homestead...wow. The damage was total.

I guess some people spell it dolphin as well?!
Hey franck, thats a bad link. I get a kinda search page.
SAINTHURRIFAN,
Freddy is a forgotten storm. I have only been in Mobile for 15 years and from talking to people who went through Freddy it was alot more than Ivan or Katrina for Mobile. Heck they were not bad at all. I was in the Coast Guard for both storms and Flew the coast alot after both of them. Katrina was bye far more intence than Ivan. The infrastructure has gotten better and can withstand more than in 1979 but the pine trees that snapped off half way down the trunk have not changed. I do not want to see a Freddy or Camille. I flew into Danny and Ivan and it was not alot of fun.
I don't know ndcohn. The wave's only problem is it's proximity to the SA continent and some shear created by Alberto. Nothing is in it's way except for those two. We actually may have an active Cape Verde Season. Maybe my number of forecasted storms should be put higher then 20 if this comes to nature, who knows, but if that was the case then the East Coast will have to pay great attention, as most of the great storms up here originated from the Cape Verde islands.
Posted By: franck at 12:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2006.
Loki240...I know the best fisherman in the lower Keys! Guy never fails to catch fish. Flats fishing, trolling or deep sea. Go here: www.finatic.com.
the link did not work. I wanted to find out his rates!!
landfall 190 i gott the book for a christmas present
and the taped footage 6 months before that other woman on the rag blasted us lol i guess freddy was so bad cause the gals cut him off lol
shame on me
landfall 190??? Iread it was cat 3..... if 190 winds it was up a couple of categories. That would be more like Andrew. I heard there was a 200mph gust at our power plant. Never verified though. OUCH!!!
Well...if Alberto dies, it existed just to prevent Dr. Masters from going on vacation during hurricane season next year.
Wow.....this blog has turned into a bad sunday morning am radio fishing show.....sad.

I would like for some people to admit hey were wrong about alberto.(most) We "think" about all storms...we "know" not everthing. I give the NHC credit for incredible track work. Intensity is a whole other ball game.Charley,Rita,Katrina,Ophelia,..on and on This has to be at least the umpteenth time that it had "little chance to survive" and did. I don't mind predictions ..Just "I know it all" arrogant attitudes have run rampent in this blog for awhile now (ST)(53rd) etc. I don't want to come off crabby...but some people come in and SCREAM! Then when they are wrong...bye bye. Let's try some humulity huh?

Sorry for the rant.
Why should anyone admit they are wrong when we are all just amateurs shooting the s#it on some website? Why take it so seriously?
Because he is trying to turn it into a bad sunday morning am radio show....sorry, couldn't help myself!
Buhdog
53rd is not done yet. He still has tonight.
NOLA70117 - Well I cannot afford flood insurance either. The barrier island where I live is pretty sturdy, but if we take a hit from a big major hurricane I'll probably be SOL. On the East Coast we don't see the huge storm tides seen on the Gulf coast, but Floyd overwashed the island north of Patrick AFB near where I live, even though it passed 100 miles offshore. The same season, even weak Irene pushed water southwards down the intercoastal Banana River into the funnel east of Merritt Island, with the water flowing up the canels and ditches and halfway up my front yard.

I since moved to slightly higher ground a little closer to the beach (about a block away from my former residence), but I don't think that will help much when the big one comes.

The funny thing is the drainage on the barrier island is really pretty good when we get the heavy rains, compared to inland. If a big wet slow-moving hurricane passes over Central Florida, all the people living in Orlando in those sprawling new developments built on former wetlands are going to be really screwed.

i ahve updated my blog
wahoo head camille was a five at land fall about 30mph
stronger than andrew and a little bigger to bushhog the fishing and
classic storm classics started because that puff of wind is getting boring lol


The hidden blessing of alberto is a slight cooling of the SSTs. It might slow things down for a few days.
red - that's the problem there are some who don't think they are amateurs and think they know more than professionals. i don't have a problem with their predictions and fighting for their position but when they attack others and won't admit when they are wrong then it's a issue.
yeah guygee, you are totally right, the Federal Flood Protection Act of 1967 has spawned a LOT of bad development in areas that should never have been built, the Feds really need to rethink all of that, and the act has put a lot of people in harms way by financially supporting that type of development
and on a bannana boat wind barometer in gulfprt harbor was stuck on a gust of 238mph
hmmz which time will landfall be?
Because we could have some sort of learning...

Were you here a year ago or two? There was alot less arrogance...humble opinions without disrespect....People are getting villified for there opinion when they put there 2 cents by people who think they are experts.
Ya wanna SHOUT you know what it's gonna do?

Than have the balls to come in and say you were wrong
Not really sure where some of those last posts are going but for an amateur and mostly a lurker, does anyone have a feel for what things might look like in Tampa tomorrow? I'm thinking this is a nonevent however we have several folks in town for meetings who are concerned and your thoughts are appreciated.
Back now. Just ate some bald (boiled) shrimps.
Well said, RedMosquito we are all just amateurs shooting the s#it on some website? Why take it so seriously?

This site gave the Fact of TS from the Navy before the NHC or the weather Channel.
It gave me the Vortex Data Message
130
URNT12 KNHC 121434
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/13:59:30Z
B. 27 deg 03 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. 925 mb 662 m
D. 65 kt
E. 328 deg 024 nm
F. 015 deg 074 kt
G. 333 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 23 C/ 766 m
J. 23 C/ 783 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0401A ALBERTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 74 KT W QUAD 13:30:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 283 / 26NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

That this was already was a Hurracane.
i'm only here to learn whatever i can learn and i dont think its much
bushhog if you expect lefty and stormtop or max jokefield to say they arewrong brother you got a long wait on your hands
tampa a summer squall is what you will get just dont drive offinto a mudhole lol
mobeel the shrimping pitiful over here my friends at ngss
form bayou la batre say yalls shrimping is better. tampa girl i bet you got a pretty suntan lol
Buhdog:

I understand your point. The problem is that I don't see any of the hobbyists saying they are better than anyone else. Everyone is screaming "they think theyre better than us" yet I see no one saying this.

Looks to me like a lot of people are jealous they dont have the knowledge to make guesses on the storms.

Just because Lefty, Weatherguy, Stormjunkie, 53, and some of the others mention their take on a storm doesnt mean their elitist, theyre the most knowledgeable on the board. BECAUSE THEY ARE HOBBYISTS, they breathe this stuff. And so what if you and I dont know as much, take a swallow cause your pride is getting in the way......

Phew.
wow Alberto has just diminished to a shadow of his early morning glory - we'll see if there's one more explosion of convection overnight, or that was all for this very peculiar storm..
Saint, Some friend's uncle from NOLA sold them to us. Not sure where he got them. Nice jumbo $3.50/lb. We bought 20 lbs. Too nice not to stock up.
computer modesl have shifted to new orleans?
tampagirl - I wouldn't let my guard down just yet. Keep informed by watching for local statements from the Tampa NWS office overnight. I think the least you can look for is some squally weather, possible tornados and some high storm tides in your area, since it looks like the low-level center will pass to your north.
good old la shrimp i sure like a mess of boiled crawdads
mobeel did you see that guy on hurricane city say that of the 20
most likely cities to get hit this year guess who was at #2 and 4
pascagoula and mobile split the differnce you have freddy again lol
Hey Mobeel and Everybody,
Yes I was here when Camile came thru but very young but as for Freddy now that was a different story (Never Forget Him) Lived in north Mobile Saraland and we had so many Tornados, Thats what made me want to track storms... Now I'm older and with all of this computer stuff it does make it more fun... But anyway as far as this storm, my opinion was way off and still hitting my self on the Head with a board...

I am glade for some rain that looks like will be here this evening...woot,woot, woot...


Taco:-)
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200601_model.html
Man I hope Not...
Good evening everyone - I need your help - I am looking for a composite radar of Alberto that covers the most recent radar and goes back anywhere from four to six hours. I think something like this exists because I happened upon it accidentally one night following a link from a link from a link....and so on. lol

Does anyone know what I'm referring to, or is it just wishful thinking?

We've had some nice rain here in Northwest Orlando and getting ready for some more.

Thanks for the help! :)
147247 or 8675309 that sounds better lol he said bought shrimp in no not puff of wind going to no.
yes tampa thier could be tornados but this is not amajor threat for crying outloud unless camille
came back from the dead lol a summer squall is probably worse because of the hail and lightening threat.
RED BUG
actually I said Just north of Tampa with 65 mph..2 days ago.. However that is not my point...Left was not my problem...he is usually pretty respectful.

1.We ALL breathe this crap as a hobby
2. Please don't suggest I am jealous of ST or lefty or others cuz of their "knowledge" or "resons" lol
3.SJ and others are cool as hell so why you are lumping them in with stormtop and 53rd I don't know why
4. Where have you been in all this to know what I am talking about?

Pride.....I have ......but I do not swallow.
Hey Otowngirl, I'm in NE Orlando and we are getting some slight rain. No wind to speak of though.
That prediction may be a good thing, becase they're never right. But, living at 12 o'clock on the gulf is like being the bullseye of a very large target.
lol saint just look good to the next radar updates and we will see

i do not claim i could be right but we will see

time will learn it on the easy or hard way
taco we dont even talk about george and it was as strong
as some of the last 2 years hurricanes i guess we are not
radar model or computer experts just vets of the worst storms to ever
hit this country experience counts as much as schooling sometimes
Hey Loki! We've gotten some great rain here today. I work in Winter Park and we had some gusty rain earlier today that took down some small branches, but nothing compared to what we saw in any of the storms in Orlando in 2004.

Keep safe!
Mobile just got a severe thunder storm warning from the stuff pushing down from the North.
147257 what model are you looking at the stormtop weathercenter
model its been pleasant in here this evening dont drag the sleep
doctor in here lol
loki240 some people call that calm before the storm
Its OK to be wrong TACO. We won't tell anybody. HeH HeH
looking to the wunderground model

btw no disrespecting but stormptop made some good predictions and not all is luck
Heard the thunder earlier. No rain yet :(
147247 what i do see is dry air really infringing on the puff of wind
looks like its breaking up hey maybe some rain in dryed up katrina wasteland lol
Buhdog

That's just fine. You know what people do when they have nothing important to say? They call people lame names (RedBug) and make jokes about swallowing.

I've been around, since last hurricane season. You were too busy slamming others to notice apparently.
Sainthurrifan,
You are right about that, George, Danny and even Emily were not even strong storms to me and they went right over us... Heck Danny came to Mobile Bay and stayed for 3 Days, George - I don't even remember what he really did, but you say Freddy and I say (OMG). We don't even need that here not this year anyway...


Taco:-)
Link

line of storms coming to the west coast of FL..
one vortex near tampa
99lsfm2

Are you in Mobile? I have family near there, what s the weather like?
the center is full of dry air now!look at the water vapor loop
Thanks Mobeel,
I would like that if you don't tell everybody but you can tell some if you want too... LOL:-)


Taco
thundering now mobeel what model mobeel is 147247
talking about i wish he would tell us because
dry air has about killed this
puff of wind oh well theres always beryl and 20 relatives
Buoy 42036, now in what would be the northeast eyewall, if there was one, is reporting 31 kt wind, 998 mb pressure, and 78F water temp.
time will learn saint

g2g now laterz
heavy rain here in myrtle beach, sc ..... seems to be our forecast for the forseeable furure!LOL

Looks like the dry air has choked Alberto..... appears the dry air has reached all the way to the atlantic (daytona)....

unless we get rid of the dry air, we could have a dying storm on our hands! ;)
I'm working in Maitland right now, just started raining gain. If possible I would like to forget all about 2004. I hope is stays calm, 147257. Wouldn't mind some more rain, just keep the wind away!
Well, I think there'll be a little bit of convection redeveloping tonight (much less intense than last night), but the highest cloud tops won't be close enough to the center to do Alberto much good. I'm sorta uncomfortable with my original guess having alberto pass south of cedar key, but I'm sticking to that for now. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it re-emerges off the south carolina coast and turns into a real howler for nantucket and the canadian maritimes.
Night Ya'll. Up early for work in the morning.

If thingsget to hairy in here come on by StormJunkie.com. Find the best imagery, models, and weather data available on the web. Great storm video from some WU bloggers.

SJ
Taco, Same here. Just a day off from work. Sat home, drank beer, ate everything in sight, and watched TWC tell everyone how bad it was. LOL
sorry redmosq....i thought it was light humor fun

you did not get a small chuckle?

I have had plenty to say important.....not always....but there is no way that some people don't feel the same way. Trust me Reddog...(can I call U that?) The level of Cockiness in here from some people as compared to previous years is amazing. That is all..no more..no less. By the way sorry if I offended you..i don't even know you
StormJunkie, wouldn't it just be easier to buy advertising for your site rather than give it plugs from time to time?
I have now updated my blog on Alberto's future and the three tropical waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
mobeel hawk im lost still trying to figure out what model has this going to no it must be the sleep doctor model lol.
Mobeel,
That just about sums it up...LOL



Taco:-)
I agree lifeblack no expert here but I have a pretty good guess, I guess for a sixteen year old. You can see my prediction on my blog I have just updated.
I am here anyway Florida, and these are the people who will use it most. Why would I buy advertising when I make no money on it?

I am here for the learning. You can find that in between the personalities.

SJ
can some one give me a update where The Bermuda High is right now thanks
I can't find anything about that model. Me he meant a model is going to NOLA. Elle MacPherson maybe ;)
StormJunkie,

After this one I might need
to come by and learn more so
I can be ready for the next
15 storms of 2006...LOL
I sure blew this one anyway...


Taco:-)
michael the same you do most blogs -- you have to use basic HTML

(img src = "address of pic here"}

just like that but replace the () with and insert the http of your pic inside the quotes
now you are talking mobeel sj do you have a clue to what model that is
if its not 2 legged lol and if this storm has 70mph sustained winds then
camille might wake up from the dead ol
michael replace the brackets () wit the greter than less than ""...
I'd say that Alberto will reach hurricane strength at the diurnal max tonight.
Saint...HUH!?
so when is thing going to cat 1 - if at all?
michael you can click view on your menu bar and choose SOURCE (will be the HTML for this page) and look for examples... look for anything that says IMG SRC .. and notice the syntax (the way thats is typed).. thats how you post pics here
can anyone tell me what effect if any will this front draped across NC and SC will have on Alberto , on it's track, and it's strength once it makes landfall?
GOOD michael .. just replace the () with the greater than less than signs



RedMosquito,
Yes Mobile. Weather is good now. A bit of the stuff from the north coming this way. I am out.
you da man !! .. learn sumthin new everyday huh??
colby what are you looking at and i was asking where this model is that this is going to no
colby ive seen rode trough and experienced camille freddy elena george and katrina this cant hold thier jockstrap
what do you see intensified only this morning because of the warm watre loop it crossed it is in the deadmnas land for storms now and it sure aint
headed to bourbon street
sure you can... just replace the HTTP with the address to the file
Is it me or is Al doing a sit and spin? If so, is it due to that system coming down from the north? Could it turn around and go south?

I don't think so, but, I'm posing the question for discussion.
weatherwannabe it becomes a cat one when the king becomes the queen
lol
Buhdog: i don't even know you

Well it's nice to meet you.

*shakes hand*

All in fun? Ok, Ill roll with that. It's too bad as a website gets more popular, there are problems that go with that. And not everyone agrees on things. Such is life I suppose. You can call me whatever you like, Duhdog. :)
I plan on staying the king.
Sing to "Goldfinger"

Spam Junkie.
He's the man, the man with the Hormell touch.
A spider's touch.
Such a cold finger.
Beckons you to enter his web of sin
But don't go into stormjunkie.com.

Spamming words he will pour in your ear,
But his lies can't disguise what you fear,
For a golden girl knows when he's spammed her,
It's the kiss of death from

Mister Spam Junkie.
Pretty girl beware of this spam so old
This heart is cold.

Spamming words he will pour in your ear,
But his lies can't disguise what you fear,
For a golden girl knows when he's spammed her,
It's the kiss of death from

Mister Spam Junkie.
Pretty girl beware of this spam so old
This heart is cold.

He loves only spam,
Only spam.
He loves spam.
He loves only spam,
Only spam.
He loves spam.
alright mobeel get out of that bar on water street lol
well accuweather has been hinting at it leaving a trough behind
but dont think it will amount to much that dry air is brutal
Saint, Is the Central Gro. open?
Alberto 3 mph below Hurricane Cat 1 status. Is this unique, a potential hurricane that never once had a real "eye"? It has a vortex, albeit an invisible one, but it never once had a full ring of clouds around that vortex.

It looks like it is moving more north than east to me.
748. MZT
Looks like Alberto is splitting down the middle, like a rip in an old pair of trousers.

This has still been an interesting and complicated system to watch though. It wasn't much by Rita/Wilma standards, but for an early season storm on the Arlene/Brett scale it held it's own.

Still possible, maybe 1 in 4 chance, the NHC will upgrade it in the end of year analysis to a hurricane.
Bar downtown. Not me since the Lucky Lady closed down (luck had nothing to do with). LOL
mobeel time for bed work comes early at the old shipyard .
enjoyed talking to you and and 99 and old tortillia taco lol
goodnight and godbless billy
I think you are in the Bar on Water Street Sainthurrifan LOL anyway have a good evening and we will chat with ya tomorrow...


Taco:-)
I told you I would be back for the show. It ain't over till the fat lady sings! It has at least until 3-4 am to throw up that convection I was telling you about, wrap it around and drop the pressure. 74mph sustained won't be a problem. Dry air, shear, and land are tonights excuses. Anyone venture to tell me chances are 10% or less.
Good Night Enjoyed chat
Well done Michael
Nice Job Micheal....


Taco:-)
This storm has been a chore to tell what was occurring at a conceptual surface as everything is deflected by winds and/or concealed from view. Even radar is a picture of something that started probably faraway somewhere else. The storm center is still quite a bit offshore. The radio stations here have pretty well written it off.

The shear seems to be dropping off a small amount on the ir around near the center(more low clouds). The Fuel from the tropics is cut off. Its being force fed dry for now.

Theres a odd little rotation mid Cuba off SE tip of fl.
Michael, thanks for the loop image - that's great! And Loki, you keep safe in Maitland. I have a feeling our "fun" has just begun, even with this system moving North of us.

Thanks for the help everyone!
hey everyone, can someone provide me with a link to view the CMC tracking model? I see it mentioned but can't seem to find one online. thanks
Thanks Otowngirl, you do the same. Let's hope the "fun" stays at a minimum.
Michael, you would have to uploade them to a server to post the pics. Unless you have a server. Either upload them to your blog or there are sites like photobucket.com that will host pics for free. Don't know about animated pics though.
Hey indiatlanticgirl.......
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~bnewkirk/
You can also try this one,
http://www.ontarioweather.com/analysis/models/cmcgemsev.asp
We made to our destination...Ft. Myers Beach this afternoon! We drove from Baton Rouge, LA to Gainesville last night and from Gainesville here. We drove through heavy rain all day today and the wind is still very strong outside our hotel room.

The rain stopped once we arrived around 3 p.m. so we were able to enjoy the beach/pool for a while. The strong cool breeze is a nice change from the "baking" we have been experiencing in LA.

We are so glad that it hasn't been worse...hopefully our vacation won't be ruined afterall and Florida will get the much needed rain.

By the way, this is our first visit to Florida and I just want to say that you people who live here have a beautiful state. The highways are WONDERFUL and the people are very hospitable.
Yea the shear is slowing definitely lower first a cover is drifting over the dimmer low level stuff from the slower shear. More blue building around too. I think its warm enough and damp enough locally to strengthen it. Its farther out than it looks.
micheal just upload ur fotos to a free site ;) and post link of it here
Calling to ya'll's attention 8N 34W.
Looks like this could be our second storm folks. An ITCZ storm. Of course then again, I could be wrong... I'm jumping the gun a bit I guess...
Oh on that clockwise rotation by Cuba there was/is a air current coming up from the south.
I have a major problem with the NHC's cumulative wind distribution map. It shows tropical storm force winds all over the bay area. I don't think I've seen a sustained wind of even 15 mph since this thing started.
well i think we no where are big H will be this year


llast year are 1st storm made land fall on the gulf this year are 1st storm is making land fall in FL so what dos that tell you any one????
Anyone have any thoughts on that impressive looking wave at around 8N 34W?
i would be surprised if the nhc doesn't significantly decrease the intensity of this storm at 11
779. MZT
I think if it succeeds in wrapping convenction at this point, it's a day late and dollar short.

I call Landfall as mild TS. 60mph or so.

I was willing to beleive in a comeback in the open Gulf, but with the arc of FLA all around and in shallow water, I don't think a "Hail Mary" comeback is in store.
Well Taz, it tells me that each year is different. And I'm very glad for that. If it was the same every year that would be quite boring.
wow i most be a big fat Idiot like evere time i post in her i get no post back from my ? so that tell me i am a big fat Idiot on her


well i think we no where are big H will be this year


last year are 1st storm made land fall on the gulf this year are 1st storm is making land fall in FL so what dos that tell you any one????

whats try this one more time ok
Hell, yes. 8N is < 10N. The no cyclone zone.
TampaCat5 yes you are right that would be
This just out from NHC (excerpt):
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 84.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
Hellsniper, isnt the wave just a lil too far south? Doesn't a wave usually have to be north of 10 N to get enough of the Coriolis Effect to develop? The exception to this if it is right of course would be Ivan.
I thought 5 N and above was the tropical zone.
Taz, are you role playing? Why do you always misspell "here" and "know". If you didn't get an answer the first time (which you did, BTW) why do you think you will get one the second time? How old are you BTW?
ok why would the mb be going down and the was lower to 60kt i do get that part dos it mean it been update to a hurricne or some in or what
There are some good ones coming. The one near the Windward Islands is impressive.
790. MZT
Ldog74: Ivan developed between 8 and 9 degrees N latitude. It's rare, but does happen.
TampaCat5,

Thats not entirely true. While below 10N the coriolis is very weak, storms can form there. It has happened in the Atlantic and every other basin. In 2004 Ivan reach major hurricane status under 10N and in Indian Ocean a tropical cyclone formed very near the equator and ended up crossing over it.
Ldog, actually Ivan got it's inital spin going north of 10N but what was unusual is that it rapidly intensified below 10N.
TampaCat5 sorry my key bord dos that some time
Tazmanian - There has been a persistant pattern of troughiness over the East over the past several weeks. That helps pull Gulf systems towards FL, but if the pattern persists it would help recurve Cape Verde systems out to sea before hitting the U.S East Coast. No guarantee it will continue, though.
795. MZT
Yeah that's quite a plume coming in the ITCZ... We won't have long to wait for the next round.
Myles, see my comment about Ivan above. Also the Indian Ocean storm was not initiated by the Coriolis force but a very unusual set of circumstances that set up the spin.
Pressure at 995mb.....Max winds @ 85+ mph. I'd say this storm is not finished yet.
NHC says it's stronger! 10pm (adv 12) is out. And they say 995mb?!
.: guygee yes there No guarantee on that one but well see what gos on
I think Al is already making extratropical or subtropical transition. But I've been wrong about that before.
so it a hurricne?
Alberto is up too something. Lots of lower level stuff over center.
Taz people might think your always playing because of the way you "word" things all the time...People don't want to read posts that they can't understand...no offence..
TampaCat5,

Yea, the Indian Ocean cyclone formed from a very strong monsoon trough, however, it just shows the coriolis effect is not always necessary for tropical lows to form. When ambient pressure is low enough and SST high enough it just isnt required. Not saying this will happen to our Atlantic wave, I just dont like putting defined boundries on things that are much blurrier.
Alright, so as far as keeping on pace with 2005, we've got until June 28th to see antoher system develop. :)
TampaCat5...It never was a truly tropical entity. Evidence the continued center re-locations following the convection. Berto is a tropical hybrid at best!
Tampa, dont worry, we wont be able to wait that long. So much for the slow start.
tampaJoe none take in but i try my hard when i type it out but not that good you no
Myles, I think the Indian Ocean cyclone you refer to was called a 1 in 1000 year event by meteoroligists. For the atlantic the no cyclone zone below 10n is quite hard and fast. (not to mention anything down there runs into South America pretty quick) You're not going to see any monsoons coming off the east coast of Africa, it just doesn't have that type oof climatology.
Umm..center relocation does not indicated a storm being a hybrid, at least, I've never heard it does.
alberto isnlt doing anything, his is actually apearing to start to become xtratropical which also explains the pressure drop. convection is pulling away from the center. the rain shield on radar is rather scattered and not very impressive. in all likley hood winds above 45mph are likley found in limited squalls. his system made its last gasp this morning.
randrewl, defintely tropical. Center relocations are actually indicitive of a tropical systems (the intense convection gets the circulation going). If it was a hybrid, what kind? This was definitely a ocean heat engine.
Alberto is like the Energizer Bunny! He keeps going and going and going.
Tampa,

I understand, I'm just stating that we cant say "It wont happen because it's below 10N" because it can, even as rare as it might be.
randrewl doesnt understand too much about the tropicl systems it doesnt sound like
816. MZT
I won't make it to the 2:00 am EST advisory. This is a work week! :-)

I'm sticking with TS landfall. I have no idea if this messy storm can hold together over FLA, but if it can, I think the track gives it a decent chance at landing over water again.

Who knows, maybe we'll still be blogging Alberto tomorrow eve. Within my memory, most storms, (even small sloppy ones) manage to cross FLA. Last time I can remember one failing to do so, was was Harvey in 1998.
and i'm not even gonna comment on silly lefty
um than don't
THE 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA INDICATES THAT THE ATMOPSHERE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AHS
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING. SINCE THERE IS
AVAILABLE INSTABOLILY TO SUPPORT THE REGENERATION OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING... A FORECAST OF
ALBERTO POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
APPEARS TO STILL BE IN ORDER.

Excerpt from the latest discussion
Link
Myles, not in the North Atlantic basin. That's all I'm saying.
Boy from that discussion is sounds like they really want to make this a 'cane before landfall.
Last year we also said that hurricanes can't form just SW of Portugal and Spain. Notice how well that impossibility held up.
Tampa, They prolly dont want to have hurricane warnings and no hurricane.
Ldog, we udnerstand the Coriolis force very well, but Ocean Temps and northern latitude cyclones not so well, I think that helps explain that.
Ldog...you may be correct!
Ldog I agree. I think they went a little overboard with the hurricane warnings. both in extent and it should have just been a "hurricane Watch. I can't beleive in Hillsborough county I won't be going to school tomorrow. It's just bizarre in my mind. I've driven to school through Summer Rain storms MUCH worse than this.
Tampa,

But it has happened before in the Atlantic basin so you cant say its impossible - if you can deny that I've heard everything. Once again not saying it will happen now, or anytime soon. I'm just saying is not impossible, only 99% unlikly :)
Myles, what are you referring to (in the Atlantic)?
The tv news just beat berto down - I herd. glorified thunderstorm practically no storm surge
LALady,

You just get to see a different side of Florida, one that would seem a little more ugly than the sunny beaches side. However, some of my fondest Florida memories are of the whole neighborhood going around and standing up their neighbor's trees, passing out cold beers and grilling up pitch-in steaks, lobsters or anything else you want to eat rather than rot in the freezer. At least in my neck of the woods, Wilma was a chance to get to know each other and help each other as best we could. I think Florida as a whole was been whacked so much that we are better prepared to deal with these storms.
Anyway, welcome to Florida and I hope you enjoy your trip!
Have enjoyed all the info yal have been submitting. Gotta go to sleep. will check this in early AM.
Im specifically referring to Hurricane Isidore of 1990 which formed near 7N. However, after further research I found it amazing that two other storms formed under 10N that year, Arthur and Fran.

Tracks
All the local weather stations are calling for this thing to be a hurricane. Winds are starting to get real strong in Tampa Bay. probably 40-50 mph gusts.
I think the NHC really mishandled this one. I wonder sometimes if they have any clue what's happeming on the ground. Moreover sending a half dozen recon flights into a weak tropical storm seems pointless to me. We have ships and buoys and radar and microwave satellite and the Dvorak technique.
Some activity to the NW on IR!
i think lefty has a good point about beginning an extratropical transition... i can't think of any other explination for the "intensification" which has occured in the last 6 hours, despite the total collapse in satelite presenation.

i'd be interseted to see the coordinates on where they are getting these 68KT sustained winds...
Yes, but my favorite MILF...Alexandra is on TWC!!
Myles, thanks. I stand corrected. One of those even fromed in July. Ok you cannot cross this line, 7N! :)
I wonder if that convection over Louisiana will get drawn into Alberto - if so, it could close up the center just in time for a last burst before landfall
tpa, where in Tampa do you live? I'm not seeing any gusts.
ndcohn...it is in the process but it will be classified at whatever strength it is at landfall as a "Tropical Storm".
Yea, the NHC isn't exactly giving me loads of confidence at the moment. Later on in the year with a cat 4-5 in the gulf or Carib they wont be able to send in recon flights cause they are "low on funds".
Yea, the NHC isn't exactly giving me loads of confidence at the moment

My sentiments exactly Ldog.
maybe it will turn towards la or texas and that way it will forever be a true tropical system eh?? lol
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 68-KT WINDS AT
700 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT JUST NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA... WHICH WAS IN AN AREA OF 64+ KT DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA
FROM TAMPA BAY AND TALLAHASSEE. THESE WIND REPORTS WERE IN AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH REFLECTIVITIES OF AT LEAST 40 DBZ...SO
USING A 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR SEEMS APPROPRIATE...WHICH
MEANS THAT ALBERTO REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB IS BASED ON EARLIER RECON DROPSONDE REPORT OF
996 MB WITH A 15-KT SURFACE WIND...AND NOAA BUOY 42036...LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... REPORTING 997.2 MB PRESSURE AT 13/02Z.

Excerpt from discussion: Link
will that front draped across NC & SC have any effect on Alberto and if yes what?
lefty is right
Winds are really picking up in western Hills Cty...
It's raining here harder than I've ever seen before. Amazing stuff for a dying storm..
Sorry but last question to me it seems like the WU models had been shifting back to the left little by little. So will they continue to do so? and will the local hurricane statements in SC start shifting north into NC? We need rain in southeastern NC and I'm hoping to see rain from Alberto.
tampa05 - it seems to me like tampa has been lucky enough to be caught in a wedge of dry air which is pretty much making sure that you largely avoid the brunt of the storm. Be happy instead of complaining. That said, the NHC has done an excellent job on this storm. They have been calling this landfall location since it was a tropical depression, and their intensity forcast has never been more then 15KTS off, and for most of the time, its been within 5/10KTS. I dont know why you think they have been doing poorly.
goularogue...Lefty is right....that's funny!!LOL!!
What does anyone think about Dr. Gray's statement of a 64% chance of the East Coast getting hit by a Cat 4 or 5 this season? EVen in a VERY active season, this seems overstated. Any thoughts?
I dont see how the NHC has done a bad job. If your biggest gripe is sending in too many recon then take your shots at them. They won't ever skimp on recon if thier is a US landfalling system eminent. I would hope that even if they do go over thier expected budget for hurricane hunters that they would still be able to find some money to send as much recon possible to storm that threatens the US. If not then there would be some problems.
I live in hyde park Tampacat. We just got a real good squall go thru a couple minutes ago.
Its dead still in the nothern center of the state- rain here though
HurricaneMyles...The NHC has a way to fund their flights....they just rob the FEMA fund before it gets stolen by the beurocrats that run it!
tropicalstorm006... I live in eastern NC (though not in as dry a place as you). What about those reports of grapefruit sized hail today? Weird for our state to get hail that size...
floodzone,

A 64% chance for a cat 4 or 5, or a 64% chance of a landfalling system? 64% chance is extremely high for a landfalling cat 4 or 5 anywhere along the coastline, let along the northeast.
hurrianemyles and ndcohn... i agree completely. i have been tracking this storm since before it knew it was going to be even a rainstorm and the NHC did the best job they could given the cirumstances. I dont think anybody could call this storm and easy predication. And myles is right they have had it landfalling around where is going to since it first formed.

it looks to me like the storm is taking a bit of a jog to the north in the last hour.
It was for the whole East coast but yes, a Cat 4 or 5 (according to an article in the latest Discover- p.10). I found that incredible (or not credible).
i'd also point out that while we have dozens of people on here that like to criticize the NHC, i dare someone to find me anyone on this blog that has more accurately forcasted its path and intensity then the nhc. There were people who forcasted anything from dissapation to a major hurricane[sometimes people forcasted both in the same day :P, and landfalls from texas to ft. myers. The NHC has been money, as usual.
I am almost certain they mis-quoted Dr. Gray. I'm going to find out right now.
I guess my main gripe is the hurricane warning painted all along the Florida coast. I think, well it looks to me, they found a sliver of near hurricane force winds, I mean they fly and fly and fly until they find a sliver of near hurricane force winds, while in reality most of the system is a weak tropical storm. I don't beleive they are presenting the system to the public very well. Yes I agree they do a great job with the track and intensity prediction is tough.
is anyone else in the Tampa area experiencing strong winds right now?
They semi mis-quoted Dr. Grey's(really Dr. Klotzbach's) forecast. The entire US east coast(including E. coast of Florida) has a 69% chance for a major hurricane cat 3, 4, or 5.
I understand what you mean, tampa, but don't you think its the only option given the potential changes in the intensity of the storm, the scope of the storm, and the direction of the storm? I dont see how they could have done it any other way.
Is it just me, or is regional radar starting to reflect increased activity in the northeastern Gulf?
TampaCat5...did you ever cinsider that every flight might have a completely different mission? Maybe in such a broad system as this is there is not enough time to do it all every time? Maybe the NHC really knows how to mix models, satellite, and actual recon data together to produce what they do? Did anyone ever consider all this?
Whats everyones take on the tropical wave making its way into the carribean?

looks very well organized for early june.
T.D #2 sometime this week. Do you all think it's a possibility?
You had same thought as I...just looked it up myself. Typical Discover "data". Got a great deal on this mag and may need it for toilet paper if we DO get that Cat3-5, lol
873. MahFL
Snowboy, the radar is certainly getting redder here west of Jacksonville, where I am currently working all night till 11 am tomorrow.
TPAweatherguy You mean this one?
Link
Well, folks...it's just after midnight here, and we've got a strong rain band coming through...finally getting some wind here. Hasn't been much else this evening though...just some rain on and off. Still under a tornado watch until 8 am. Good night, everyone...
TampaCat5, this one for sure isn't over till it's over. If you saw how dead Alberto looked yesterday at this time, and how ominous it looked this morning (12 hours later) then in my view this should make the NHC's call quite comprehensible. We have not had landfall yet and strengthening overnight is easily possible..
Yea nd = Zoom on IR center shift/eye rebuild/whatever? To the nw?
night night lol lol lol and give me a fly by Bump to say hi in my blog ok night night night
Really enjoyed the discussion tonight. It's bedtime. Goodnight folks. (erm goodnight alberto! lol)
Links Not comin thru Randrewl.

Theres actually worth looking into though now lookng at it closer.
Do you think the one in the NE carib is anything to follow?
while wobbles aren't particularly rare or anyting, the storm has been pretty steady in its NE trajectory (which would be expected given that the steering currents aren't very weak, its definetly veering pretty strongly to the north for the last 4 frames or so. Even a little to the NNW... i wonder if it will persist.

Its funny, I read an article once about how hurricanes just DONT want to go into the bend, as if they had a choice. I forget the storm right now, but i think it was an E storm... anyway, it turned around and hit in a completely unexpected direction.
I obviously dont see any evidence that its going to do that or anything, but I just think its interesting that as the storm moves into the bend, its... resisting...
hey goularogue! Nice to see you here this evening. How are things in Goula this evening?
TPAweatherguy- can attest to that. I am in Palma ceia.
Tampa has that shield around it too cohn..
storms seem to always take a jog north a south of us.
I'ts been what? 80 YEARS since we've had a direct hit.
That fact scares me for this upcoming season.
I can't do loops on my dial up system, but it sure looks to me like precipitation is intensifying across FLA and convection is starting to develop in the Gulf..
HEY! What the heck happened to the frontal boundary that was headed my way??? Dadgummit, I need the rain! I demand my share, darn it! So far I've got a few clouds and a little blustery wind. So, who the heck stole my rain storm????? Lefty, StormJunkie...I'm counting on you guys to figure out some way to steer a little of that rain into SE Bama.....Not a lot...I don't want several inches...just enough to water my garden for a day or two...and enough that the local farmers don't lose their peanut, cotton and corn crops...but not so much that the duhmaters and melons burst on the vines. How 'bout it???? Hmmm???? Pretty please with nanner pudding on top?
887. iyou
Dr. M. has a new blog up folks!
Although I'm focussed on Alberto, I would agree that the system approaching the NE Caribbean has potential and may well become TD2..