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Alberto makes a comeback

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:45 PM GMT on June 12, 2006

Alberto survived some very strong wind shear last night, and is in much better shape this morning. Deep convection for all of Alberto's life had been confined to the storm's east side, but has now built westward and almost reaches the center. Spiral banding has appeared on both visible satellite imagery and the Tampa radar animation. The storm's central pressure was a very unimpressive 1006 mb last night when I thought the storm might get ripped apart, but has dropped to 1001 mb this morning, according to the latest 8am EDT Hurricane Hunters report. Peak winds are probably around 50 mph--buoy 42003 in the Gulf of Mexico measured peak winds of 43 mph earlier this morning as Alberto passed overhead.


Figure 1. Accumulated rain so far from Alberto, as estimated by the Tampa radar.

All this strengthening occurred in the face of strong wind shear of 20-30 knots. The shear has not changed much in the past 12 hours, nor is it expected to do so over the next few days. This should limit Alberto's intensification, keeping the storm below hurricane strength. In fact, the latest visible satellite imagery shows the shear once more blowing the deep convection away from the center, exposing the center once more. I expect Alberto will undergo some fluctuations in strength over the next day as the storm battles the shear. The most likely peak winds at landfall are in the 45 - 60 mph range. Alberto has about a 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before landfall.

The major threat of damage with Alberto now appears to be storm surge, with a surge of 4 - 8 feet possible over portions of the west coast of Florida. The waters off the coast are very shallow for a long stretch, which allows a rather large surge to build up. Heavy rain will also be a concern, but as I discussed yesterday, this may be more of a boon than a bane given Florida's moderate drought conditions. Rain amounts of up to six inches have fallen in portions of the Keys and Naples, Florida.

We'll update this blog later today as conditions warrant.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

From Gainesville, FL at 8:50 AM it is overcast but not raining yet. I can't tell if Albert is still moving NNE. From the infrared pictures, it looks more like a NE movement in past couple of hours.
g'morning folks
Besides the heavy rain, keep in mind the tornado threat in Florida today.

SPC Discussion


weathercore.com
Alberto restrengthens despite heavy shear and dry air... reminds me of 2005.
The NHC is giving Alberto a 35% chance of becoming a hurricane. Link
Morning Gator. Up here in Spurrier country we just wanted to say thanks:)

Find all the models, imagery, and more at StormJunkie.com. There is also some nice WU blogger storm video here.

Thanks all
SJ
........Why won't this stupid little storm DIE!?
Actually, this is reminding me more and more of '05...and don't even look at that nice wave east of the Antilles...
Just got that tornado watch issued on the east coast of Fl.
Will someone please email me when StormToppy boy comes in here! He was ripping on Hurricanechaser yesterday and i would like to be on here when he eats crow and says that Hurricanechaser was right on......lol.....These guys are a trip.......
This is not the maximum wind?

URNT12 KNHC 121212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/11:56:20Z
B. 26 deg 32 min N
087 deg 00 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 311 deg 085 nm
F. 056 deg 030 kt
G. 311 deg 084 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 24 C/ 303 m
J. 24 C/ 305 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF305 0401A ALBERTO OB 03
MAX FL WIND 30 KT NW QUAD 11:29:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 303 / 8NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Great! Now we got people from TWC stationed on Ft. Myers Beach, about 20 mins from my house. It's a dadgum tropical storm, we dont need stormchasers showing us what a typical strong thunderstorm feels like!
The estimated speed in which Alberto crosses Florida is driving me insane. We're up in the Catskills (7 days of rain and 50s) and we're flying back to Jax at 8pm tomorrow night. Now it looks like the storm will be lingering and may effect travel. Grrr.

B
Alberto, the storm that defied all odds is perched in the Gulf off the west coast of FLA. Given that it has hung on and strengthened under the worst of conditions, it will be interesting to see how it does when they become a bit more favourable. Regional radar showing moderate to heavy rain through the Tampa area, but Miami and the Keys are now dry. And that's one respectable area of convection just east of the center - it was just forming as I went to bed last night, and now look at it..
With Gainesville dead center in the track, the University is once again refusing to announce a closing less than 36 hours from landfall. Are they intentionally trying to endanger students and faculty by conducting regular business during a tropical storm?
TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY TAMPA BAY FLORIDA!
By the way, the CMC model is what everybody should be congratulating - it forecast a tropical storm a week ago and while it initially had it hitting Louisiana, it moved to the east and had it hitting Florida a couple runs later, but still long before any Invest was issued. Also, it had it coming from the East Pacific, and the Navy track map has it start on the west coast of Central America, so it does appear to have started there.
---Shameless Plug Alert---

I am trying to get a headcount for my informal contest check out my blog for more information.

OD's Blog

---END----
Heavy rain falling in srq .....boy I bet the talking heads are jumping aroung the fire at the communist news network. It's only a ts!!!!!!!rrrrrrr
Sample from my contest

Prediction 1 (2 days out)
Name of System: Alberto
Landfall Location: Panama City, FL
Predictied Landfall Windspeed: 45MPH

--DISCLAMIER--

This is NOT a offical or santioned forecast by NOAA or any other goverment/private weather forecasting agency. Please do not make plans or broadcast this message as offical.
Is it just me, or does anyone else miss the old layout of the tropical/hurricane page? The new layout looks nicer, but seems less helpful (even with accessing older blog entries). I just miss being able to look at a nice IR map on this site. The NOAA plugin just takes too long to load. :(
Colby, remember the discussions late last season when we wondered if those tenacious storms (hanging on in the face of the worst odds) were an aberration or the shape of things to come? Alberta is picking up right where the last season left off..
HM, Tropical storms can be very damaging storms. I f those winds get up to 60 and the rain fall starts 6 to 8 hrs in advance then there will be plenty of power outages, downed trees, and flooding. Now my point is that you should not think of it as just a strong Tstorm. This types of systems also tend to spur inland tornados if I am not mistaken.
SJ
After having such an intense season last year, it doesn't surprise me the attention the first storm of the season is getting this year. The media is hyping it way up and forgive me, but having storm chasers on the beach for just a TS is retarded.

Granted, people need to be aware of the dangers of a storm but I suspect people living in Florida already know ALOT about what to do and what not to do during Hurricane season.

This is going way overboard and we haven't even had the first HURRICANE of the season.
Most model guidance has shifted today to more of the Big Bend area in Florida than the West Coast of Florida.

I would imagine at the 11am advisory, the track may be shifted further north and that the warnings will be adjusted to the west a bit.

Here in Tallahassee, 3 to 5 inches of rain is being forecasted by our local weather people, especially if it continues more north than east. The big shield of rain in the Gulf should approach our area by about 6pm tonight.

Further strengthening does look likely and I agree with the NHC that 65 mph looks about right.... because right before landfall, the shearing winds will lessen a bit.
Link


Most recent model guidance
Josh- I'm here in Tally too- 3-5"? Really? That's awesome!
i agree with the unusual activity..... this storm should be dead ALREADY! lol

interesting time we live in....for sure! ;)
The convection looks like it's getting real pretty and wrapped around the center of rotation. Bet you it's going to be TS about 60kts at the next advisory.
In regards to school closings, they are only announced the day of the closings. Normally, at least here in Leon County, Leon County Government announces that they are closing and then everyone else, including the schools, must follow suit because once the county government closes, everything shuts down.

So schools DO NOT make the first choice..... they follow what the Emergency Management people are saying as well as what county and city government is saying.

I would imagine coastal counties will close but Gainesville and Tallahassee areas may remain open.
I concur Mandy.
catchthespirit,

I know I think weather.com has Stephanie Abrams and Mike Sidel are out in the field, I don't think Jim Cantore is out there on this one.

Accuweather has aleast (from just a quick look at its website) has abandoned the Alberto being a hurricane idea.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. You all must realize that if it wern't for the boiling water these systems should die in the face of such horrendus conditions. WAIT TILL AUGUST. muhhaaaahaaahaaaaahaaaa. Oh and I and STORMJUNKIE told you so! Storm Junkie did you happen to find out about the SST site and our little conspiracy? You will all see everyone in the world will be talking about how hot the water is in the Atlantic soon enough. I can't believe some people still believe that it is cooler than last year. Oh and Alberto will not cool the Gulf enough he will simply mix up the hot surface water. Just like Denis did in front of Emily and Katrina did in front of Rita. The hot SST's will be mixed a little deeper and provide the next system with even more heat potential. Muhaahhahha. 53rd out!
Josh- I don't wanna work tomorrow! Can you close that down for me? ;-) I'm downtown & I'd MUCH rather lay in bed & listen to the rain!
StormJunkie,

You dont need to educate me on the perils of tropical cyclons and there whole things begin 6-8 hours prior, bla bla bla. I've been through my fair share of storms, I know the drill. Yes there will be some power outages, yes there will be some flooding, there may be a tornado or two(maybe more, but you get my drift) The fact is they dont need stormchasers on the beach in Ft. Myers.
learning alot from reading the posts in this blog but will take a break since they are showing "Sunset Blvd." on tv see you guys at 11am adv.
Also Please can we have a show of hands of how many people are running informal prediction contests on thier own blogs or on offsite websites:

Orion Darkwood
StormJunkie
No Cantore yet? Awww. Maybe they'll send him to St. George Island & I can go visit!!! :-)
Anyone still think this thing is going to make landfall near Panama City?
Josh, I tend to agree with you. one thing to keep an eye for is how much weakening we actually see at landfall. I think there is as small potential for it to actually get stronger as it makes land fall. If it heads close enough to the GA coast line then it may be able to pull in enough moisture to sustain/strengthen slightly. It has just been in such a bad environment and yet has hung on. The slowly relaxing shear has already had an impact on structure of the system. It all depends on much much moisture it can pull in from the Atlantic.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. You all must realize that if it wern't for the boiling water these systems should die in the face of such horrendus conditions. WAIT TILL AUGUST. muhhaaaahaaahaaaaahaaaa.

What about Epsilon and Zeta, which shouldn't have existed at all? Even without shear and/or dry air, the water was just too cold.
wish I could.

I am home sick today as I have a case of eating the wrong food over the weekend when I was in Jacksonville. Will try to go into work later today to turn in my timesheet so I can get paid at the end of the week and then will come back.

If Alberto strengthens anymore than what is currently is and poses more of a threat to the Tallahassee area, then yes, chances would improve for closings tomorrow.

If this comes in towards our area as a 65 mph T.S., Tallahassee will be without power for a while.... Hurricane Kate in 1985, I was 2 years old, knocked the city out of power for about 3 weeks and it was a weaking Tropical Storm when it moved through here.

we shall see.
Hellsniper - Am in Pensacola/Navarre area (you know we do have that magnet under us!) Arlene last year came right through here.
I would expect landfall around the Apalachicola area to a point east of that towards where it currently is being forecasted to make landfall.

Not quite ready to shift it towards Panama city for a landfall point at this moment... as it clearly does have an eastward component to the movement, thus the NNE movement.

If it did move into Panama city, Tallahassee and points east would be in the worst part of the storm.
45. WSI
"What about Epsilon and Zeta, which shouldn't have existed at all? Even without shear and/or dry air, the water was just too cold."

I think my previous post went into the void, LOL!

Anyway, what I said was you are exactly right STL. SST's are but one variable in the making of these storms.
Been lurking for a few days..after going through some great storms here on the east coast i have learned these things sometimes defy the odds..they spin up into dangerous storms rather quickly despite shear and stear. Even though it is just a ts.things could change in a hurry especially looking at that convection.
*yawns* Good morning all!
Hellsniper223,

I am, but where the eye is other than wind. There isn't going to be much rain. Most of the rain is going to be a good 30 - 50 miles northeast of the eye.
What is up with the models?? The good models are showing it VERY close to home!! WHY? Anyone?
Re: UF being in the path of Alberto -- The UF home page says the university is "monitoring the progress of Alberto," but the link for more info is dead...
52. OGal
Can I ask you guys a question. What do the numbers on the storm tracks mean?? Thanks!
The FSU link states the same thing....

I'm not in school until next week since I leave for London next week to study abroad.... but if you here of government closings in your area, chances are schools will close as well.

Those decisions won't be made until later tonight however. Landfall won't occur until late tomorrow afternoon to tomorrow evening unless it moves more north.
Pensacola21,

I too have seen the models. The CMC has this thing coming through the panhandle and into Georgia and over my area in SC. The CMC is the one that appears to have predicted Alberto with least error.
It is how far out the forecast time is. AT leas I think that is what you are talking about OGal.
josh- mail. :-)
Morning haydn. What area are you in?

Hve you seen the site
StormJunkie.com

SJ
Morning Katie- I hope you guys get some rain! (And that's IT!) :-)
59. OGal
SJ, it is the numbers and letters on the tracks on the Nexrad Radar.
Link


Good long range radar image of the Tallahassee area... by later tonight, the center should become visible on the radar loop. All the rain should be in the Tallahassee area this afternoon.
NRL says that Alberto now has 60 mph winds (50 kts). Link
Stormjunkie,

I'm near Augusta, GA.
mornin all. will just be lurking most this morning as i am at work and have lots to do since its monday. alberto looking much betetr today but still highly sheared. expect some weaking during the day as it loses the hel of the diurinal cooling. looks like florida will get tons of rain they need
Thanks Mandy- You will probably get the storm... From the looks of everything..
Sure hope you're right, Josh. They aren't calling for that much rain on the forecast yet. Hopefully they're just being conservative.
The visible of Alberto resembles Zeta.
Ogal can you give me a link?

I am down in Charleston. I think our concerns will be tornados and flooding, although if it remains close enought o the Atlantic then it may not weaken too much.

SJ
catchthespirit,

I am netural about the forecasters themselves, I rarely watch them other than when I am bored and hoping they get hit with something. Or someone will moon or flash the carema.

But yes full field coverage/24 hour a day is a bit much for a ragged TS
69. WSI
"SJ, it is the numbers and letters on the tracks on the Nexrad Radar."

If its what I think it is, its the storm names. A1, B9, C3, etc. Just a way to differentiate the storms.
Alberto continues to be the storm of many low level swirls. I think this aspect of the storm helped it survive dry air and shear, but also won't allow it to strengthen too much more as it really needs one main circulation to really spin up.

I'd say timing is fairly critical to landfall strength also. Alberto seems to like the night-time and has looked the healthiest around 6am every morning.

It's shaping up to be a pretty good soaker for some areas that really need it -- here's to hoping the damage reports and 4-8' surge aren't too bad.
OK guys, you have to watch TWC just for the Abrams in a tight sweater promo.
I sure hope it moves a little to the north so we in Pensacola can get a little bit of the rain. We sure do need it to cool us off for a bit.
Last night I went to bed and the Weather Channel was saying 30% chance of rain for the Tallahassee area today and tomorrow.... I was like that is going to have to change.

This morning I woke up and it's 60% tonight and tomorrow.... they only have 10/20mph winds in our area however so if the storm does continue more north than east, that will also have to be updated.

Waiting to see what happens on the 11am advisory.
Lefty the cloud tops are already starting to get a little warmer, diurnal effect dying off, but what I find interesting is the fact that the moisture and out flow is starting to expand to the N and NNW of the storm with out getting blown off nearly as much. Also seems to be pulling more moiture in from the S and SSW.

SJ
........Why won't this stupid little storm DIE!?
It's moving WITH the shear, not against it. This is mitigating the effects of the shear.

Hurricane Hunters have recorded Flight-level winds of up to 74kt, which should translate to 70 MPH at the surface. Don't be surprised if hurricane watches are hoisted at 10 AM CDT.
: hey tornadoty how it been doing where have you been are we talking about are 1st 2006 hurricane
it's still pretty asymetrical with a sharp die off of clouds and showers to the west.
Link to the 74kt reading? If that were the case, even an 80% reduction would be 60kt=70mph, and anything less gives us Hurricane Alberto!
And yes, as MichaelSTL mentioned before, the CMC has displayed it's knack once again of predicting cyclone formation before the other models. It also didn't do a bad job with intensity and track on a couple of the runs -- though throughout the latest 15 model runs it did predict a wide range of scenarios. Are the GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, etc usually better with more intense cyclones?
Where is the link for the Hurricane Hunters? I looked at the NHC site and they have the old info still.

I doubt it makes it up to Hurricane status but then again, chances are better today than last night that it could happen.

Thanks.
Here in Jacksonville, Fl the sky is dark and it is really really humid. Light winds as we await the arrival of Alberto. Good news. I just saw the P-3 Hurricaine Hunter (designation 307A) moving from the maintenance hanger to the paint hanger. Last week it didn't even have any engines installed on it. It should be ready to fly in a week or so.
News Channel 13 just said there are hurricane watches for the west coast of fl.
Don't have link, but I've got data (winds in bold):

003
SXXX50 KNHC 121336
AF305 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 18 KNHC
1328. 2732N 08600W 00780 5045 036 060 160 160 060 00755 0000000100
1329 2731N 08601W 00780 5046 033 063 160 160 065 00754 0000000100
1329. 2729N 08603W 00779 5046 024 066 152 152 066 00752 0000000100
1330 2728N 08605W 00780 5047 019 064 148 148 066 00752 0000000000
1330. 2726N 08606W 00781 5048 020 067 158 158 070 00752 0000000000
1331 2725N 08608W 00777 5051 016 074 148 148 074 00746 0000000000
1331. 2723N 08610W 00780 5054 019 073 154 154 073 00746 0000000000
1332 2722N 08611W 00780 5056 020 070 154 154 072 00744 0000000000
1332. 2720N 08613W 00780 5053 021 067 168 168 069 00746 0000000000
1333 2719N 08615W 00781 5049 016 067 188 186 068 00751 0000000000
1333. 2717N 08616W 00780 5045 013 060 206 182 063 00755 0000000000
1334 2716N 08618W 00776 5045 012 055 194 186 057 00751 0000000000
1334. 2715N 08619W 00782 5044 014 049 220 182 051 00757 0000000000
1335 2713N 08621W 00780 5044 012 042 226 186 043 00756 0000000000
1335. 2712N 08622W 00779 5043 010 037 220 186 039 00756 0000000000
1336 2711N 08624W 00781 5043 012 036 230 174 038 00758 0000000000
1336. 2709N 08625W 00782 5043 018 033 246 178 034 00759 0000000000
1337 2708N 08627W 00778 5039 011 032 244 178 034 00758 0000000000
1337. 2707N 08628W 00783 5034 011 035 228 178 035 00769 0000000000
1338 2705N 08630W 00772 5030 025 035 176 176 039 00762 0000000000
One hour till the latest advisory. Then we can see if intensity has increased. If that report of 74 kts is right, Alberto has defied odds and people need to prepare for a hurricane.
They'll probably up the winds to 60-65 at 11 AM
would niot be shocked at 74 kts. some heavy convection on the north and east side and cenetr has toghtened up. pressur down to 1001 so 60-70kts not out the question. last night did alberto some good lol
74 mph is probably about 65 mph at the surface
Josh you can find the link to the hurricane hunter and a lot more here.
i ndoubt alberto will get anystronger he will likley dininish much of that convection he has gained alst night during the day today. theresa small woindow where shear will be lighter than it has been for days than it quickly picks up again. alberto's window is very short
good morning fellow weather geeks!

just my check in to see what is happening here...will be checking the blogs frequently throughout the day as much as possible!

Have a good but wet Monday.

Broward County Florida (SEFLA) not as much rain so far today as yesterday and only sprinkles yesterday. very cloudy but no wind and not much rain yet.

cloud cover had cooled down our temps some.

see ya later!
Gamma
i guess now we can all agree she is heading ne and will not go west lol. wheres stormtop. he did call the convection growth over night. lol
74 mph is probably about 65 mph at the surface
74kt=85MPH=probably around 70 MPH at the surface. NHC might go conservative w/65 MPH. We'll see.
93. OGal
Sj,it is the Nexrad on Weather Underground. Click on Tampa and hit storm tracks.
I agree with the 70mph number, especially given the symmetric rise and fall around it. Seems like a good, if suprising, reading.

Here was the map from my previous advisory, which I'll have to update once the recon is done:

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
I just checked all the bouys..nothing over 29 kts.
It shows the direction the storms are moving and the speed they are moving. I think:)

SJ

Hurricane Hunters claims 75 km/hr, not 74 kts.

Link
i stuill say minimal cat 1 at landfall.....

hey stormjunkie.... i am in myrtle beach..... keep all the rough weather down your way! LOL
The numbers on the NEXRAD identify the different storms; they coorespond to the numbers in the table below the radar.
Looks like Alberto is holding its own right now. The convection is sticking to the east side of the center much better than yesterday, but it is still a struggle. The west half of the storm is non-existent because of some shear and a lot of dry air. I still see a couple of sub-swirls within the larger center of circulation. The conditions are not conducive to a lot of strengthening, but any stronger bursts of convection near the center could bump the pressure down a bit. Alberto is a very typical lopsided early season gulf storm.
NHC is always conservative, they might not even go that high, they might just even it out over two updates.
That is 45mph winds

29kts is 33 mph.
Posted By: mclori at 2:21 PM GMT on June 12, 2006.
Hurricane Hunters claims 75 km/hr, not 74 kts.

Link


That is a link to the 1:00 am advisory which shows the winds at 45 mph / 75 km/h.
They have it as a Hurricane now in 12 hours.... they also have it within 50 miles of the Tallahassee area. If you put 40mph sustained winds in Tallahassee, that's not good because we have failed to upgrade our power lines and power goes out during normal thunderstorm.

Definitely getting more interesting.
Hurricane WARNINGS issued (Kristina Abernathy shocked).

000
WTNT21 KNHC 121432
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1500Z MON JUN 12 2006

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.9W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.8N 84.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH
Okay, does someone have a link to the 200mb temps? This feels like Epsilon...
107. IKE
Buoy 260 miles south of panama city...sustained at 45 mph...gusts to 55-60.
I'm patiently waiting for some rain in NW Broward County, not much action here at all, just light stuff, haven't experienced a real tropical downpour yet. As for Alberto, it will remain a weak tropical storm imo and basically be a non event. My only concern would be a tornado outbreak in and around Central Florida.
it really looks like a close call with the high over to the east, hoping for the rain to at least reach here a little bit......
thanks Tornadoty, unbelievable!
No problem snowboy!

There's talk on another board of a new LLC trying to form under the convection. Look out if that happens.
112. RL3AO
WTF!

HURRICANE WARNINGS! THIS THING WAS DEAD 12 HOURS AGO!
My sentiments exactly, RL3AO.
This feels like Epsilon...
This doesn't feel like Epsilon, its basically a repeat of Epsilon.
2005 disease returns!
The difference between Epsilon and Alberto is that Epsilon was in the middle of nowhere.
It's trying to bomb.

130
URNT12 KNHC 121434
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/13:59:30Z
B. 27 deg 03 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. 925 mb 662 m
D. 65 kt
E. 328 deg 024 nm
F. 015 deg 074 kt
G. 333 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 23 C/ 766 m
J. 23 C/ 783 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0401A ALBERTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 74 KT W QUAD 13:30:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 283 / 26NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
They are saying 45mph gust after it is well inland. Will be very interesting to see what the next 24hrs holds in store.

SJ
Expect a classic Lixion Avila discussion sometime today if he's on a shift.
That 997 pressure is pretty impressive.
60KT winds? wtf is going on with this thing???
122. RL3AO
Pressure is falling quick
Winds at 70 per last update.

124. RL3AO
Winds are up to 70 mph now.
TWC says it might hit minimal hurricane strength later today... hmmm... since the 11 AM winds are up to 70mph this isn't a stretch
Check out field D - that means they directly observed ground-level winds of 65kt. We have hurricane Alberto.
!!!!

Look at the center fix! It's right in the middle of the deep convection!
it seems the crazy 2005 season is flowing over to 2006. never seena storm thrive in the face of conditions that should ahve killed it. just amasing
Good morning, everyone. Winds are up to 70 mph!! Wow, I hope Alberto is the exception and not the rule of the 2006 season.
130. RL3AO
Looks like we were going to have Hurricane Eps...Alberto later today.
Anyone have a modle link???
Posted By: Lefty06 at 2:52 PM GMT on June 12, 2006.
it seems the crazy 2005 season is flowing over to 2006. never seena storm thrive in the face of conditions that should ahve killed it. just amasing


I don't think that what we are seeing is a result of last year, rather, something has changed in the atmosphere to allow this kind of stuff to happen (a natural cycle, global warming or something else?).
While I am not a forecaster, I can recall most storms after doubling in size, as this one did in such a short period, the wind field enlarges and levels off the intesification for a bit, and this is what it looks like with the colder cloud tops not being nearly as prominent as earlier. It also looks to be moving a little more east than north?
135. 900MB
Hurricane Alberto....Breaking!
136. RL3AO
After last season and last night, I won't be shocked if this hits Cat 2. I'm just saying, I'm past the point of shock.
Guess whos back for this season! And better yet, in a house trailer 10 miles inland in Florida!

Woooo! *puts goggles on*

Okay... now to topic. Alberto looks so much like becoming a pain... based on last year's amazing jump arounds in power, Im betting 20 bucks Alberto gets NEAR category 2...sure, no backing evidence asides last year :P
Looks like this thing redeveloped another center under the convection... so much for Stormtop's prediction. You can start to see an eye/core on Tampa radar.
michael wasnlt trying to hint at anythin just making a joking statement abotu a storm that lots of us thoguht was dead and now is almosta a cane. sounds like 2005 lol
140. WSI

Anyone have a modle link???

Here is one. Tis one of the most popular ones here.


I have other model links in the tropical section of the link directory at weathercore.com
Latest model link:

THIS WILL BE MY FINAL POST UNTILL NEXT SYSTEM.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

CAT 1 ALBERTO KISS MY ARSE!
does it look like an eye is trying to form just south of thr track????
I don't think that what we are seeing is a result of last year, rather, something has changed in the atmosphere to allow this kind of stuff to happen (a natural cycle, global warming or something else?).

No its me and my weather modification satelite! I want ONE BIEEELLLLIONN DOLLARS or I will destroy your state!

Or, maybe we dont understand the weather as good as we think we do.
I remember that one of the earlier GFDL runs (when Alberto was still an invest) had a strong Category 2 / weak Category 3 hurricane (depending on what adjustment factor you used) making landfall close to where it is now forecast to do so.
Good lord, this is insane.

*smashes egg on face*
Haha well you did call it originally did you not?
btw, if you look at the computer models on this site, the UKMET model sort of predicted the jump to the NE through the reformation of the center. If this is the case, the Big Bend of Florida is in for a rough 48 hours.
149. RL3AO
way to screw up the blog recon
150. Alec
Well RECON, you had the intensity forecast right just not the location landfall point....and quit the obscenity....
151. WSI
"
CAT 1 ALBERTO KISS MY ARSE!"


Oh hush. You said Saturday at 5pm. :)
I pronounce the Canadian Model King of All Models 2006.
53rd,

Even though its not official yet, you did call for it to be cat 1, but you said it have already been that strong a day or two ago. I dont think that calls for backrubs.
The Canadian (CMC) model may have forecast Alberto well in advance, but that does not mean that it will get the next storm right.

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 12, 2006

The Air Force hurricane hunter plane found that the center of the
cyclone has abruptly reformed near the deep convection...and it is
now relocated some 60 N mi to the northeast of its previously
estimated position. The hurricane hunters also reported a peak
2500-ft flight level wind of 74 kt...and a central pressure of 997
mb. Based on this observation the current intensity is adjusted to
60 kt. The storm has been interacting with the warm Gulf of Mexico
loop current...which has likely been a contributor to the
intensification. As Alberto continues north-northeastward it will
be departing The Loop current and encountering a region of lower
oceanic heat content. Strong southwesterly shear will also
continue to impact the tropical cyclone. These environmental
factors would appear to mitigate against significant additional
strengthening. Nonetheless....given the uncertainties in
predicting intensity change we must now allow for the distinct
possibility that Alberto could become a hurricane. Therefore a
Hurricane Warning is necessary for a portion of the northeast Gulf
Coast.

A mid-level trough developing over the eastern U.S. Is expected to
carry the tropical cyclone on a north-northeastward to
northeastward heading. The GFDL and NOGAPS guidance show a more
northward track...but this is difficult to accept given the
northeastward reformation of the center. Therefore only a slight
leftward adjustment has been made to the previous forecast track.

Along with the heavy rainfall...the greatest concern with Alberto is
likely to be storm surge flooding along an extensive portion of the
Florida Gulf Coast. Owing to the configuration of the coastline
and the shallow Continental shelf...a strong tropical storm or a
category one hurricane can produce a significant surge in this
area.


Forecaster Pasch




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 12/1500z 27.1n 85.9w 60 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 27.6n 85.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 28.8n 84.6w 65 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 30.0n 83.6w 60 kt...inland
48hr VT 14/1200z 32.0n 82.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/1200z 34.5n 77.5w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 16/1200z 38.0n 70.0w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 17/1200z 45.0n 60.0w 40 kt...extratropical

Let's not go overboard, guys. There is nothing shocking going on here. This kind of comeback has happened many times in past years. Alberto was able to recover because it turned northeastward and accelerated, helping to counteract the shear. The lower shear has allowed bursts of convection to form near the center, with each burst knocking a couple mb off the pressure. That is exactly what happens with these types of sytems. If the bursts can keep coming at a steady rate, Alberto can get a bit stronger. If the convection gets blown away from the center for several hours the pressure will begin rising again. There is nothing new here.
Wow! The vortex recon report is a real eye opener isn't it?
Link
This link may help you see the center of rotation and direction.Link
I know alot of people don't really think these smaller storms are such a threat,but they still should take notice of what the Weather people are saying...Look what happened with Katrina...People are still homeless & what have you..My Husband laughs @ me every Hurricane season,at the start of it,I make him Fill the (water & Gas tanks) & check the Generator on the MotorHome & then head to the Grocery store for supplies,I use to live in Northeast,Oh.& would watch the Weather Channel during Hurricanes 24hrs.before one would hit Here are ALL these people standing in line looking to get water & food & what have you..I use to go HELLO You knew it was coming...Why did they wait & as far as Plywood for thier windows the Day they moved into their new homes down there WHY do they NOT have Plywood cut & ready to just put up & leave..Never did make sense to me...
160. 900MB
OK, almost a hurricane, and I have egg on my face too. Wow! This could be one very nasty season. The storm that looked like it didn't have a chance is just about a hurricane.
Modeling (GFDL) showing a move off the nc coast and possible hit later near Cape Cod not so great for us up here in the northeast. Our waters are way above normal temps. Any chance this thing can keep it's strength? Doubt it, but doubted alot over the past week.
The latest vortex message is cutting it close:

Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 65 Knots (74.75 MPH)
Any ideas on why the NHC hasn't been publishing the Wind Speed projection graphics as in previous years? Those were my favorite graphics! :)
Yes, the Canadian model is KING. And what a wild system - the shear was blowing the convection way to the northweast of the center of circulation.. NO PROBLEMO SAYS ALBERTO.. establish new center under the convection!
Flight level winds: 85.1mph
Maximum flight level winds: 85.1mph
Pressure: 997mb
Yeah, I'd say it is a hurricane.
Morning all, nothing like posting in a dead blog lol. I thought is was rather dead just after a Hurricane Warning was issued.
As I posted before TD 1 even developed, I am extremely worried about a significant/damaging storm surge. Alberto has a large wind field that is intensifying. Tampa Bay and Apalachee Bay are very vulnerable to surge, moreso than the MS coast. This could be quite a devastating coastal event.
Well, guys... Looks like this is the start of another Amazingly frightening season. God Spead, It'll be a cat 6 in 2 hours.
omg, look at the latest IR - this things is establishing that nice saw-tooth pattern and strong feeder bands and will be a hurricane this afternoon..
The new, stronger circulation is starting to become exposed from what was a decent looking CDO. Cant see it strengthing into a hurricane if this keeps up.

Visable Sat Loop
000
URNT12 KNHC 121434
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/13:59:30Z
B. 27 deg 03 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. 925 mb 662 m
D. 65 kt
E. 328 deg 024 nm
F. 015 deg 074 kt
G. 333 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 23 C/ 766 m
J. 23 C/ 783 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0401A ALBERTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 74 KT W QUAD 13:30:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 283 / 26NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO
60 KT. THE STORM HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO
LOOP CURRENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
INTENSIFICATION. AS ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL
BE DEPARTING THE LOOP CURRENT AND ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF LOWER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. NONETHELESS....GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE WE MUST NOW ALLOW FOR THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREFORE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST.
The convection looks like it's getting real pretty and wrapped around the center of rotation. Bet you it's going to be TS about 60kts at the next advisory.

Lol. The NHC one-upped-me.
Here's the discussion link: Link
Myles, that circulation on the visible is the old center that was shed off this morning. The new center is still under the convection and can be seen on Tempa radar.
the center is just coming on the tallahassee radar
convection is now increasingly wrapping around the core - shear, what shear?
convection is dying. she is weakening
Do you have a good radar link so I can see that convection forming around the center?

Amazing storm.

Thanks.
Alberto is now a cat 1 hurricane!!!!!
hey lefty, how can it weaken into a hurricane? LOL
OH, BTW, MY SOURCE WAS RUSH LIMBAUGH!LOL